Your Future Depends on Alaska, Here’s How

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You know, with midterms just a couple of weeks away and both parties scrambling to keep states that they currently hold and flip states that they don't, we thought it would be a good idea to get everybody on our team doing as much midterm coverage as possible. So that means even folks who don't usually cover political campaigns are covering political campaigns. And so when our White House correspondent Mary Margaret Olhand was invited to travel with Vice President J.D. Vance to Alaska in addition to the already herculean task of covering a Vice Presidential visit halfway around the world. We also asked her to do some campaign reporting and to do some campaign reporting she did. You can now read her piece inside the Republican fight to hold Alaska on the daily wire. And you can also hear from her about it now because she joins me today to take us behind the story. Mary Margaret, it's so great to have you back on the show. - Hey, Tim, it's so great to be here. - So this is a tantalizingly overbroad headline. And I love it because I mean, it's actually not overbroad. It's exactly what the piece is. Your piece takes us inside the Republican fight to hold Alaska. Usually I would tell people that they have to read the piece to get all the juicy details. But we love our behind the story listeners. So why don't we give them a little bit of a peek behind the curtain. Take us inside the Republican fight to hold Alaska. - Absolutely. So Alaska is an interesting place because not only is it geographically far from the rest of the country, but their politics can't really be measured by the usual political standards. And that's something that the locals and strategists that I talk to explain to me over and over and over again. Their politics are kind of shaped by the demographics and the geography up there, the fact that they have ranked choice voting and Alaska in priorities which are not always the same as their fellow Americans below the Canadian border. For example, nearly 380,000 or 60% of Alaska's voters are registered as nonpartisan or undeclared. And that doesn't mean that they're independent minded or they're necessarily left-leaning. In fact, what I was told is a lot of these people lean Republican, but they're fickle. And so if things are not going the way that they might expect, they're gonna be frustrated. So just because the president won the state, that doesn't mean that he's secured it for the next election. And part of the reason that we went up there with JD Vance is 'cause his trip offered a window into that fight for Republicans to hold Alaska and their plan to really mobilize voters who had helped secure Trump's victory in 2024 by tying the Democrat candidates up there to radical Democrat extremism, making the case that Alaskans really need politicians like Dan Sullivan in Washington to continue delivering the real results for the state that that state needs. - Yeah, so let's actually talk a little bit if you don't mind about the candidates. 'Cause I think that Alaska is, I mean, look, all of the, as you sort of said, I think what you just said about just because the president won it in 2024 doesn't mean that Republicans are gonna hold it. I think that's a lesson that Republicans are learning in a lot of states this year. And I think it's a lesson that the incumbent party learns every mid-term cycle, right? This is everyone said it a million times. So nothing about this is necessarily surprising, but Alaska is one of these races and a large part because of the Vice President's visit that didn't get as much attention up front as Michigan or Texas, but now is sort of bubbling up. So why don't you just quickly give us a run-through of who's running and what the issues are? - Yeah, so Dan Sullivan is running for the Senate seat. He is a Republican, as Vance said, a really great guy, a Marine Corps vet, and he is running against Mary Peltola. Well, the interesting thing here is that Mary Peltola previously ran and lost in 2024 to Nick Beget, who is the current Republican representative who is running again for the House of Representatives in Alaska. Now, Trump won Alaska by 13 points in the 2024 presidential election. That was the same election that Mary Peltola lost her seat to Nick Beget, but now, just two years later, she's neck and neck with Dan Sullivan. And this is a really interesting race because on the one hand, Mary Peltola has a lot of things on her side that will make Alaska invoters quite upset. For example, she has been anti-police. She is anti-border control in many ways. She's voted against men, keeping men out of women's sports. And she's just really with the left on most issues that Republicans and conservatives care very strongly about. But that being said, she's done a really good job at portraying herself as more moderate this time around. And Alaskans are really feeling the prices that the gas pumped are really feeling the effects on groceries and they're concerned about the economy and things like that. So they're in a neck and neck race up there, Peltola and Sullivan, to see who can really convince Alaskan voters that they are the man for the job. And I should note to Tim, another aspect of Alaska is that there's a lot of people who are truly doing these working class jobs, whether these guys are out on backhose or they're driving the side tilt dump trucks or people who are building runways or stringing the power lines out on fishing boats, mining, fishing, you name it. They spend a lot of time doing legitimate jobs that are keeping them away from the polls in some cases. I had one woman tell me Susanne Downing, she's one of the top writers in Alaska. She was telling me that during the summer, a lot of Alaskans are out digging in the soil. They're building roads, fishing, mining, repairing dikes, the matter out working on equipment. And so they might live on one side of the state, but they're doing a job on the other side of the state. So voting can be hard for them. And then voting absentee is logistically hard too. And a lot of these people are not confident that their absentee ballot will even be counted, so that makes them less inclined to do that. So there's so much at play here. And again, I think it comes down to who can convince these voters, especially people who are potentially out on the job or not near home, that it really does matter for them to vote, especially voting absentee. And who can reach those people and reminds them why they do want to engage with politics? Because that's another thing that Susie and Downing explained to me is that a lot of people are getting really fed up with all the political ads that they're seeing this cycle. And a lot of the men, especially, are disengaging. So things like Vice President Vance going to Alaska or Donald Trump going to Alaska, that is very much more likely to get them engaged in the battle because it reminds them this isn't just about Dan Sullivan. This is about the future of Alaska. It's about the future of the country. And the future of the United States Senate. Yeah, it's interesting. I feel like the dynamic that you're kind of drawing out there is this. Alaska is-- look, every state is unique, right? That's kind of a non-sequitor. But of all the states, Alaska is-- I mean, geographically, it's so far removed. It's different industries. I mean, truly, right? I mean, you think about the parts of the state where it's dark. It's night time for two months out of the year, whatever it is. So life is different there. And so it makes sense that the concerns of Alaska voters would be different than pretty much in any other state. But of course, they're still-- they're seeing political ads. They're getting the national side of it. They're getting visits from the Vice President or the president. So what on your visit did you know? What seemed to be the main concerns that are either going to-- you sort of explained what might be keeping Alaska. away from the polls. What in your trip did you see that might be driving them to the polls? Who do you think they're like who has a better case-based on those issues and how different is that from the issues that are animating these midterms in other states? Well one thing that I heard and noticed and I found really interesting was the way in which the vice president went after Mary Paltola because Dan Sullivan, he is what most people told me is he is a legitimately good person. He is a good man but he's not the best at attacking his opponent and that was something that a couple people told me ahead of the rally. They said look he's a really good politician, a good man at the end of the day but not so much the kind of person that's going to show people why she's the worst. And so when it came to that actual rally and the vice president's rhetoric he did a really good job of telling Alaska voters don't judge her by what she's saying now in these final six weeks of a Senate campaign judge her by what she's actually done. And Vance said you know the reality is she did support a lot of radical Democrat policies including bad and women's sports and this line from him particularly stood out when her voting record was on the line what she did is she supported radical left policies and he really came out strong swinging against her on this point to the point where multiple people who I was with said wow we haven't really heard that yet that's not something that's really effectively been said about her yet and so I think that on the one hand will have an effect but then also just bringing a lot of these people out there to Fairbanks such as where vice president Vance gave his remarks. A lot of people that I talked to told me that this was a big deal because Fairbanks is kind of a conservative stronghold in Alaska and a lot of these people that showed up for Vance um you know again these are hard working Alaska these are people who left legitimate jobs that day and and made time to come and hear Vance speak a lot of the men that I saw were really serious looking they were really dialed in they were really engaged and then of course there were a lot of families plenty of children too so it activated people in the area in a way that I don't think they've seen in a long time and for what it's worth I was told that a vice president hadn't come and campaigned in that way since I believe the 70s that was something that some of the bystanders had told me so all in all I think it was a really interesting rally and I think Vance coming out there really energized people and then of course I should note that the president himself went out there this week as well and he rallied Alaskans and really encouraged them to consider himself on the ballot so not just to vote against radical Democrats but to vote for him saying that you know a vote for Dan Sullivan is a vote for Donald Trump and that's something the president has been doing all over the country trying to get people to understand that he's still on the ballot because and this is something that you know Republicans should probably voice more if the Senate does not I go for Republicans during these midterm elections um Trump could be a lame duck president and that's something that's very much on the president's mind and something that I think you know a lot of us here in Washington worry about now Alaskans might say that matters to them less than uh you know grocery prices and gas prices but Trump might tell you it's all intertwined yeah I'm sure he would and I mean look there's uh as you sort of noted right you know and I think as everyone is kind of reminded certain I mean this midterm year was probably one of the most nationalized midterm campaigns if that's it's not a perfect way of putting it but this you know right from the beginning right there's usually a couple of races that become fodder on national news and things that the president or national political figures speak about this year right again the early contenders and persistent uh examples would be Abdul al-Sahead in Michigan and the Ken Pax and James Talorika race in Texas but pretty much from the beginning and in a large part at the urging of the president and I think both the Republican and Democrat parties this whole cycle right I mean this is what the midterm convention was all about was about kind of tying all these races together and very much tying them to the forthcoming presidential election in 2028 so yeah I think you're absolutely right to note that I'm like voters in Alaska I mean voters everywhere but certainly in Alaska it seems more so than other states perhaps are maybe primarily animated by you know the kitchen table issues but that doesn't mean that they're not equally as concerned or are still thinking about um about the kind of national future national uh impacts of of what can happen in their state and so to that end I just um I want to step away from Alaska just a little bit because again as I sort of said at the beginning you obviously as our White House correspondent are focused on the White House and the administration and so often you're physically there at the White House and we're traveling with the president or writing you know kind of breaking news about what's happening at the executive branch so what was it like kind of talking to people about campaigns but also Congress right it's a it's a different branch of government than you focus on in your day to day which is obviously obviously the you know it's it's all kind of reporting so it's not that now that this was like a crazy thing for you to do but subject wise it's a little different what are you how was that how was it like you know kind of reporting this out yeah it was really interesting I really enjoyed it because I talked to a lot of people like you said that are not DC adjacent and it's refreshing in a lot of ways uh everyone was so excited and that's something that you don't get a lot in Washington where people are used to politics they respect the president but maybe they're not as uh you know enthusiastic and just raw uh excitement that we saw in Alaska I had people texting me who got my number from other random people that I ran into along the way and they were all just sharing my phone number because they were truly so excited at the thought of participating in a daily wire story about this event partially because they love the daily wire which they should but also because they're just so amped up about this race and about vance coming I talked to one guy his name's David Long and he's uh Fairbanks resident who went to the rally with his wife and he's the one that reminded me it had been 54 years since a vice president had visited Fairbanks he told me that there were friends showing up who never go to regular political rallies he told me they were stoked he said there were people who had diabetes who had to ask special permission from the secret service to bring stuff in people showed up who had never been to a political rally before asking special permission to get time off work there were people that drove hours and hours and hours to be there and one thing I learned to tell him is that Alaska is not a small state I think someone told me it you could fit five texases in Alaska which is just insane to think about and then you know just to envision the terrain that we flew over on the amount of mountains the snow the frozen lakes to hear about all the wildlife it's just a different area of the country the sub-artic north actually as I learned in my research so it was really interesting and I think a really great reminder especially for people in Washington that sometimes we do need to look up and look around in fact often we need to look up and look around because what happens in the swamp is really not supposed to be about the swamp it's supposed to be about all of these other states and the Americans and them all over the country and Alaska for me that was a really great reminder that this is why we do what we do yeah absolutely I mean it's such an interesting point it's so incredibly well said but right I think it's this weird thing right especially where sometimes people over-correct and they start talking about real America and then the rejoinder to that is all America is real America but obviously what you're saying is that there's like there's Washington and there's the rest of the country and that's generally true you know when you take away kind of the CNN wine moms and the chattering classes people who really love to engage with what's happening in Washington on a day-to-day the political junkies right most real Americans obviously it's very different but then again Alaska just because it's this actual frontier it's this it's the wild west of the country right I mean it's it is very different it's like the whole state is basically like one small town it is it is kind of a great reminder of again yeah so you're something that we should keep in mind not just when we're talking about Alaska it's just it's such a it's such a strong reminder of a thing that I think we should we should keep in mind yeah to your point kind of across the board sticking with this for a minute here and this is something that we have you and I have discussed with on our on our new show the district club watch on Sundays just how are you at this point in time again you know a couple weeks away from the midterms as someone who spends a lot of time in the White House and covering the White House what are your thoughts on where the White House is and the president and vice president are with the midterms at this point in time are they anxious are they confident what should we expect to see from them in this home stretch what do you got well outwardly everyone is posturing confidence I've heard you know that inside there's rumblings there's concerns but this is a very active administration they don't sit back and wait for things so they're out on the road so I believe JD Vance was out on the road in Texas this week campaigning for Ken Paxton you had Donald Trump heading to not only Alaska but also Nevada to Montana to Arizona he is going all over the country again reminding Americans that he's on the ballot the significance of getting to the polls encouraging them to think about their vote for whatever representative or or senator as a vote for him and I think that's huge and we'll absolutely have an impact on these right You also have concerns recently from some Democrat strategists who fear that they've been relying too much on polls, which we have consistently seen to not be very accurate, not be very effective. Now, again, we should point out that a lot of these polls are trending in favor of Democrats, so we very well could see Republicans slaughtered in these upcoming midterms. But I think that it's too early to say, and I think Republicans still have a leg to stand on when they say that everything they're doing matters, and everything they're doing to get out the vote is going to play a role. So Trump's making all these visits, Vance's making all these visits, and there's still things happening in the news that could absolutely play a role in some of these elections. In Florida, for example, there's new reports that there is an illegal immigrant who allegedly sexually assaulted a child. Well, that illegal immigrant who is accused of doing such a heinous crime identifies as a transgender woman and was released during the Obama administration despite the fact that this individual had been illegally in our country and was also identifying as a woman, which I think a lot of us would say shows signs of severe mental health. Now, down in Florida, this is becoming a really big story where the local outlets are not only refusing to acknowledge the student's immigration status, but they're also calling him a woman in their reporting. So there's a lot of different stories like this that are starting to make waves that are giving their Republican candidates fodder to talk about and causing Democrat candidates to have to grapple with them in ways that they're not going to want to do in the last couple of weeks before the election. So there's just still so much to say, there's still so much to watch for, and I don't know that anyone is going to effectively call these races until we get much closer to November. Yeah, it's definitely going to be a eventful last couple of weeks. I think we got a lot of our October surprises in September this year, but a couple of weeks as we've been saying to go to the midterms and as you know, Mary Margaret, that is practically a lifetime in politics. So especially with some of these candidates and this president, you never know what we're going to hear or what's going to become a midterm issue in these last few days. And I am just excited to be able to cover it and excited to have you covering it as well. So thank you again for joining the show and thank you all for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Story. That was Daily Wire White House correspondent Mary Margaret Olahan. Go read her piece inside of the Republican fight to hold Alaska. Now I am Tim Rice. Thank you for joining. We'll see you next week. Well, some races draw attention, others become the race, everyone watches in Texas. James Talleriko and Ken Paxson are facing off in one of Kalshi's most traded midterm markets. Follow the race in real time on Kalshi and then trade on the candidate you think is going to win. Each correct contract is worth $1 at settlement. Don't just follow the midterms, trade what happens next on Kalshi. Use code daily, D-A-I-L-Y to get up to $25 when you trade $25. That's Kalshi K-A-L-S-H-I Kalshi trade on anything. D-T+ only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply, event contracts trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions, prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see kalshi.com/regulatory.