Women could be the deciding votes in Maine Senate race

Women are a key voting block in Maine. They make up more than half of Maine's population and they are the biggest chunk of the electorate. In fact, in the last decade, more women than men have voted in every single election. That's why, as Democrats try to win control of the Senate seat there this year, they will need to win over women voters. It's the MPR Politics Podcast. I'm Ashley Lopez. I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore. I also cover politics. And I'm Tamara Keith. It's a politics explosion. Yeah. New name for the pod. The Teammate here. The Teammate here. The Teammate here. The Teammate here. By MPR. All right, Elena, you are recently in Maine and I want to get a lot of your thoughts there. But first before we talk about the Senate seat, I want to get the basics of it because the Democratic side has been pretty bumpy, messy. Yeah. There's been drama, for sure. The match of a set. Now, it is a race between Susan Collins, 30-year incumbent Republican. One of the most senior Republicans in the Senate, Chair of the Appropriations Committee in the Senate, versus Troy Jackson, who was a longtime state official in Maine. He was president of the state Senate for a while. He's progressive. And Jackson is a relatively new name in the national political space because he replaced Graham Platner on the ticket. He was nominated by the Maine Democratic Party at the end of last month because a few weeks earlier, Graham Platner ultimately dropped out because he was accused of rape and kind of just lost party support from there. Graham Platner denies the rape allegation, but obviously did drop out of the race. Also, Jackson is a known quantity in Maine. He's not a national figure, he's not charismatic, you know, all these things. But he is very well known in Maine. He was the Senate president there. Not quite the same recognition, no name recognition as Platner at this point. Yeah. You know, it's any time the primary voters vote for one person and then that changes after the fact. I mean, that's a challenge. Yeah. Well, you recently reported about the fight over women voters in this race, like how important they are in the electorate, give us first a background on how this voting block, like how important they were to Susan Collins winning six years ago. Yeah, well, Susan Collins is a fascinating candidate because she is somebody who has continued to win in a purplish state that has repeatedly voted on the presidential level for Democrats. It's also a state that has a ton of Democratic state leaders from the governor to just like a ton of the state house and Senate. And so how is she doing that? If you just look at the exit polls, it comes down to independence and women in Maine. If you look back at 2020, that was the last time she was up for reelection, Joe Biden won that state as did Susan Collins. And I was looking back at the exit polls. I was channeling my Dominican Montenarro and independence went for Biden by 24 points. They went for Collins by three points. Women in the state went for Biden by 23 points almost exactly the same. And these are the groups that are going to be in play. And in 2020, if you look back, nearly six in 10 of Maine voters were women. So that's really where Susan Collins' coalition has been. Yeah. The rare ticket splitters, which I guess is a signal of how strong Collins' brand is in Maine, right? Yeah. And the case that she makes is that she is on the Powerful Appropriations Committee. She has brought back all of this money to Maine voters I talked to when I was in Maine reporting, mentioned that regularly. And so she has a brand. And part of that brand is being someone who is fairly moderate and is someone who has been palatable to a voter who would vote for Joe Biden at the top of the ticket, wouldn't vote for Donald Trump, but then would be like, well, you know, Susan Collins. Yeah. I can vote for her. I think a lot of Maineers, they argue they're very strategic with their votes. You know, they're willing to look past party labels as we're seeing lots of Americans are on the country increasingly do in identifying his independence. Roughly a third of Maineers are independence also, but they acknowledge, you know, that right now, you know, their state, which has a pretty small population, it's think a little less than 1.5 million people, you know, Susan Collins is one of the most powerful lawmakers in the Senate. And so I think many people understand that, you know, they have someone that has a lot of influence advocating for them. I heard this from Republican Maineers like, why would they elect a junior senator when they could just keep a long time powerhouse? Well, a lot of this hinges on the issues before voters, though, right? Because brand and the sort of personal background of candidates only gets you so far when there are certain issues that voters are looking to. I want to get a sense of what those issues are in Maine, Elena, why don't you start with what you heard from voters are like sort of the main thing that are driving their vote. And particularly women voters in this case, and that's like a very, like important part of the electorate. Yeah. Well, it's complicated because there are a lot of themes that are uniquely tied to, you know, or historically seen as like women's issues or issues that more directly impact women. I think the biggest one is like reproductive rights and abortion access. And we can talk about that in this race, but another one is just, you know, the treatment of women and looking, you know, with the Platner allegations in the rearview mirror, but still kind of looming over this race from a national lens. That again kind of brings women back into this conversation. So I was thinking a lot about these topics in this race, but then when I went and I talked to voters, so many people, and obviously this is anecdotal as, you know, Tim, but I'm sure you can attest when you talk to people like, I can add my annotated data. You can add data. You want to add a data plus two anecdata equals more anecdata, but, you know, people are concerned about a lot of the same issues that we hear from folks in other states around the country. They're concerned about rising prices. They're concerned about the cost of healthcare, the cost of housing. And I had people, when I asked about, especially reproductive rights, they'd say, okay, healthcare. We're concerned about healthcare. And so it is kind of part of this broader concern. And that's something, you know, I put this question to Kelly Brennan. She's a union organizer and a Portland-based nurse. And I asked her, you know, what's your message to main women or how do you think main women should be thinking about this race? And here's what she said. I think for women in Maine, what we need right now is somebody who understands the working class, right? And the working class, that is a lot of women in Maine. That is single moms, that's, you know, nurses, that's teachers, that could be anybody. So just because, you know, we're saying working class, working class is moms, is women. And I think that distinction is really important because that's what Troy Jackson is running on. And we should say Brennan is, she was a delegate that voted for Jackson at the State Party Convention last month. And that is his core message is uplifting the working class, helping working class mainers. And so I thought it was interesting to kind of hear the pitch to women as really just the pitch to all voters. Yeah. And Susan Collins, when I was up in Maine, was asked, you know, what are the top issues in this race for you? What are you focused on? She's like affordability, making sure gas, heat, home heating oil. Like, you know, for all of the talk of these big national themes, the reality is that pretty much every race in America right now is about how much things cost and how people feel about it. Yeah. And stepping back, listening to the issues that you're hearing from voters, the atmosphere in general for Republicans, the fact that independence are swingly widely towards Democrats. I mean, all signs point to that this is not going to be easy for Susan Collins. And here's another sign that points to things not being easy for Susan Collins. She is often someone who is one of the last votes to decide on a confirmation. She often is, you know, holds back, doesn't reveal how she's going to vote right away. Well, in the case of Todd Blanche for Attorney General, she came out early and said she was not going to support President Trump's choice for Attorney General. And one of the reasons was, quote, he promised an anti-abortion organization that he would seek to prohibit the mailing of abortion medication to women nationwide. So she is someone who has supported abortion rights in the past, but also who voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which is something that a lot of main voters really pushed her not to do. They pushed her not to support him. She did arguing that he believed in precedent and that Roe wouldn't be overturned and then Roe was overturned. And so, you know, I think that the fact that she came out early on this Blanche nomination is as sure a sign as any that she believes she has a real race on her hands. Yeah. And we know Democrats are already making this an issue for her. This was a thing that the Plattner campaign was talking about. It was a thing that the Jackson campaign will talk about. And you know, we should just say it clearly, like 2026 is the first time Collins is back on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. She voted to confirm Kavanaugh in 2018 and then was elected again in 2020. So it feels like a long time ago. But given Roe, given this clear connection that a lot of especially critics kind of paint of, you know, Colin's supporting Kavanaugh, that support was crucial in getting Republicans over the finish line to get him on the court, getting him on the court helped cement the conservative supermajority that went on to overturn Roe. So it's kind of a, you know, there's lots of steps here, but it is something that is definitely an issue for her. - Before we move on to other things though, I am curious how the Jackson campaign, since now there's a Jackson campaign. How they're talking about this. - Yeah, well, I thought it was interesting. Trit Jackson is an interesting figure when it comes to abortion policy, because when he started his political life, roughly two decades ago, he was outspokenly anti-abortion. He was supporting more restrictions on abortion access, but that changed over his career in politics and even in the last few years, when he was a legislator, he voted to expand access to abortion after the Supreme Court overturned Row, and that's something he is talking about on the campaign trail. And I also just found it interesting, like when I was there at the party nominating convention, and in his speech addressing Democrats, he mentions wanting to federalize the right to an abortion. And I thought that was striking. Given we know that he's really, really focused on these economically populist ideas, but as he's rattling off, I want to pass Medicare for all, et cetera. He's also going, I want to federalize the right to an abortion. And so to me, that was in very obvious prioritization of an issue that might be a bit tricky for Collins. - All right, well, we're going to take a quick break. When we get back, we're going to talk about primary election contest happening today. Welcome back, voting wraps up today in a few states' primaries. We'll talk about the results of those tomorrow. But for now, I want to talk about Minnesota and Wisconsin. We're seeing similar themes in both states, democratic primaries. This is this tension between the left-leaning and establishment candidates. Elena, can you talk to us about how that's playing out in Wisconsin's race for governor? - Yeah, and the person kind of sparking a lot of that kind of debate here is Francesca Hong. She's a self-described democratic socialist. She's running on a lot of the same key economic, populist issues. We've seen fireup voters around the country, things like Medicare for all, universal childcare, moratorium on data centers. And one of her top opponents is Milwaukee County Executive, David Crowley. He's got the endorsement of Tony Evers. So kind of that party nod. And Hong is in many ways kind of trying to brand herself as the political newcomer outsider, even though she is a state lawmaker. But she also has a background as a chef. And as we've seen elsewhere, really kind of amplifying these working class concerns. - What I would say about this race is, it's just not as clean a test of the establishment lane versus progressive lane as we saw in Michigan. And the reason for that is the establishment lane has been a multi-car pileup. The initial candidate who they thought was going to be, the establishment lane person, people were coalescing behind Sarah Rodriguez, the state's lieutenant governor, ended up having to drop out with campaign finance issues and related to her campaign, Mandela Barnes, who was another big name in politics, ended up dropping out of the race. Crowley had actually dropped out of the race and then had to get back in. And so it's been a mess on the establishment side. And on the progressive side of things, it's actually really interesting to me that Bernie Sanders, the Vermont independent, the grandfather of the progressive movement of recent years, has not endorsed in this race. - Either with AOC. - AOC, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has not endorsed in this race and talking to progressives, they will say things like, "Well, you know, this one's not perfect." And one of the reasons it's not perfect is the candidate herself Francesca Hong has said a lot of really controversial things, not just like defund the police and abolish ICE, but also hating Thanksgiving and a variety of other holidays and some other stuff that will make it relatively easy for the Republican in the general election, Tom Tiffany, to portray her as out of touch with mainstream Wisconsinites. And I think that the progressive movement is, you know, I think that they would be happy to have a win, but I don't know if they want to own a loss. - Well, you know, that's gonna be the Republican talking point for all of the candidates who get any sort of backing from progressive leaders or don't, or have backing from the Democratic Socialists of America. And we should say, Hong is actually not officially endorsed by them, right? She just identifies as a Democratic Socialist. And so, yeah, it is kind of messy. And I think that, you know, the fact that she may not be as polished as some candidates that we have seen really drive home that winning more progressive, left-leaning message, I think is interesting. But, and also, you know, some candidates who have had similar, you know, past statements kind of come back to haunt them or maybe aren't always, to have them always said the, the right thing in line with the party, have kind of been able to, I think about like, Daria Lisa Avila, Chevalier in New York, the candidate who won in Manhattan and beat Congressman Adriano Espayat, you know, she had kind of a, some controversy around past statements and more, you know, I guess people would argue, like radical, you know, stances. But she was able to kind of stand alongside this like, powerhouse progressive coalition that Zora Mumdoni, the Mayor of New York, had formed. And I think that was a helpful thing that seeing her alongside other compelling, you know, progressives, I think, helped. But Hong is kind of in a different boat here. It's, you know, she's, she is the, the name on this ticket. And I'm going to be curious to see if her brand alone can power her to victory when there isn't that groundswell of support from the larger movement. - And this is the most purple state in America, the presidential race in 2024 was the closest of anywhere in the country, Wisconsin. - Well, we will soon be getting more information. I could talk about this race forever, but we do need to move on to Minnesota Senate race. Tam, why don't you set us up for what's going on with that race? - Yeah, so there is a progressive candidate. There is a more moderate candidate. But the whole like establishment, anti-establishment thing is a little bit scrambled. So Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is endorsed by the who's who of progressives, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, you name it. Angie Craig is a congresswoman from a swing district in Minnesota. She is more moderate, but she's kind of anti-establishment in that she was one of the first people to call for Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race. Meanwhile, Peggy Flanagan has been an office for a long time. She is part of the establishment, if you will, in Minnesota. So anyway, it's just not quite as clean. But certainly there is the sort of establishment preferred candidate and the progressive preferred candidate. - Yeah, I think this is also a race where we see that like labels can only go so far because Angie Craig has also gotten a ton of flack from the progressive wing of the party for voting for the Lake and Riley Act, which is the immigration reform bill that was put forward by Republicans. And so there are ideological differences between these two candidates. And even though they are both trying to get on this wave that we're seeing that does work of calling for change, calling for something new out with the old. And even if both candidates are sitting lawmakers, people are gonna try to do a version of that message. - Yeah, and Angie Craig has said that she got that vote wrong. Peggy Flanagan has described it as disqualifying. The Lake and Riley Act has really come back to bite several Democrats who voted in favor of it. - And we should say the Lake and Riley Act makes it easier for the government to detain and deport people who do not have illegal status. - Well, now let's talk about the Republican side of things. I wanna talk about the primary for Minnesota governor where President Trump has endorsed one candidate and the state party has endorsed someone else. Tam tells about this race. - Yeah, so the candidate who has the president's endorsement is the one who kind of dresses like the president who is well known in MAGA circles because it is Mike Lindell, the My Pillow guy. Who if you watch Fox for years was constantly advertising, more notably he was very involved in 2020 in the conspiracy theories around the election being stolen from President Trump. He actually was sued by an election machine company and had to settle. He was one of the lead purveyors of President Trump's election denialism. And Trump endorsed late, but he has Trump's endorsement. The case he's making to voters is I have a direct line to the president, I can get things done. The reality is that Minnesota is kind of a blue state and it's tough for any Republican to win the governor's race, especially in this case, the very likely Democratic nominee is Senator Amy Klobuchar who's quite popular in the state. This Republican primary might be the most interesting part of this race. I mean, I think this is once again gonna come down to the power of the Trump endorsement. We've seen Trump win elections despite calls of critics saying he doesn't have the experience or that he comes with a lot of baggage or scandals that hasn't stopped at Trump win. And I think Lindell is trying to follow that kind of playbook. I mean, there have been questions about his residency in Minnesota, there have been allegations but he's. physically abused a former girlfriend. These are things that Lindell denies, but can someone who is like a mega fire brand comes with this baggage? Can they win with a Trump endorsement? I think if you look at the past midterms, that is not always the case. I mean, I think about someone like Herschel Walker in Georgia, who ran for Senate. He had a lot of baggage. He had a Trump endorsement, it didn't matter. And I will say for the scorekeepers among us, I have noticed that it's always the late endorsements that Trump makes, that those are the ones that don't perform the best. And that's why he's usually reserving them for a late endorsement. All right, we can leave it there for today. Listen tomorrow for the results of these races we just talked about. And one more thing before we go, our friends at Sources and Methods and PR's National Security Podcast are hosting a live show at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday, September 9th. Host Mary Louise Kelly and former top intelligence officials will discuss the 25th anniversary of 9/11. And why that day is still shaping global events. Tickets are on sale now at NPR.org/SourcesLiveShow. All one word, NPR.org/SourcesLiveShow. That link is in our episode notes, if you're interested. I'm Ashley Lopez, I cover politics. I'm Elena Moore, I also cover politics. And I'm Tamer Keith, I also cover politics. And thank you for listening to the NPR Politics Podcast.