227. Wind + Grids = Energy Security - May26

[Music] With the launch segment from London and Gerard Reed from Berlin, this is redefining energy. Today on redefining energy, we're going to talk about wind around. Yes, we are, because we talk a lot about solar. And let's not forget that in Europe, all the north is mostly power by wind, because unfortunately, we have, say, 1,000, five other hours of a sun per year. So, who's going to pick up the tap for the rest? Wind is there. But first of all, from our partner. A bloco energy is Europe's premier leaser of 10-foot container mobile batteries. Built in Europe with CATL, Best LFP cells. A bloco energy serves 14 European countries, including France, Germany and the UK. A bloco's batteries can be leased for any duration between 6 weeks and 6 years and they are monitored by the Dutch award-winning platform school. A bloco energy, make your life easier, make your business more flexible. Back to the show. Yeah, and it's also clear is that wind is real low cost. And as I said, northern Europe, you're definitely right. But also, if you go to the Midwest in the US, I mean, you won't get any cheaper form of power than wind. So, no, no, wind is a critical part of the system. We need to revisit, see what's going on in the industry. And again, it's very important to understand that now with the bigger turbines, whether they're unsure, now they reach 6 megawatt each. And if you look of show, now they reach 20 megawatt each, we are reaching load factors in the 40%, 50%. And of course, with the weather prediction getting better and better, we really have a resource that's there, that's powerful and that's predictable. So, we need power, we need wind. Absolutely, don't know. What we decided to do really was bring on the new CEO of wind Europe, which is the sort of the voice for the wind industry across Europe. Tina van der Straten, and she was formerly the Energy Minister in Belgium. In 2022, during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you know, I always think it's good to actually have expolitations or politicians on. They have a different view of the world and a different way of seeing it than we do around because we really are sort of finance people. We think about things in terms of numbers, right? Yeah, Antine has a big picture of you as you say political angle, but also energy security angle. Let's welcome Tina on the show. Tina, it's great to have you on the show. Thanks for coming on board. Thanks for having me. Tina, you're not seeing you in Europe, but before that, you were the Minister of Energy of Belgium for five years, and we're now in an energy shock with almost the Gulf. But you were at the helm when the Ukraine crisis arrived. So, I would say this is not your first photo. Can you explain a bit what it was being inside the 2022 Russia and the energy shock? It was hell of waking up with the full scale invasion of Russia in Ukraine. It was a real wake-up call that we can be so vulnerable. And I've seen a first-hand, and I was, as you say, at the helm, to see how energy moved from a very technical department. We have enough energy at any point in time, enough electricity at any point in time to very strategic departments. Where do we buy? How do we buy? How do we diversify? How can we be more secure? 2022 crisis was responsible for having a very huge legislative framework on fast-tracking renewables, fast-tracking permitting to repower Europe. And now, four years later, it's like, I've been here before. So, it's deja vu moment. Maybe it's also a touch point to say, are we now in a better place or not? And I think the answer is both. We are not enough progressed as we should have been after the 2022 crisis. And there was a lot of talking, a lot of goals that we put forward, specifically with regard to the deployment of renewables. But we also need to realize today that on the ground, the deployment of renewables has not progressed as fast as it should have been. So, we do not come from the same situation as we were in 2022. We have seen progress, but the wake-up call is yet there again. We are very, very vulnerable if we rely on the import of fossil fuels. If we rely on energy that we do not control ourselves. And specifically, when we now look to the situation in the Middle East, it's not our war. It's not a war of Europe. But we are confronted with the consequences. And if we want to be more resilient, if we want to be more secure, then we have to take back control of our energy supply. And the only way forward, the only future proof strategy for Europe is homegrown electricity. Because this is something that we can do. We have RC basins. We have also a lot of land on which we can build renewables. So we can provide an abundant clean electricity for our citizens, for our industries, for our companies. And so there is no upside in slow-walking renewables. But we should be really confident that we can now also use this crisis-take-this crisis, as yet again, wake-up a moment. But also a moment to say, let's meet this moment. Let's move forward. And let's really now focus on deployments of renewables and also increase the use of electricity so that we can be more resilient in the future. So Tina, it really means interesting to actually have a formal politician. And the reason is, I think, myself and Iran really become from the finance world. So we look at everything really economically right. And we share totally your vision that what we need to do is electrify energy, the whole energy system across Europe. And we also think that if we look back, you had the, in the 70s, you had two-wheel crisis. First-wheel crisis, the first-wheel crisis, the second one was when everything changed. And you saw radical change, obviously, for example, in France and in terms of the economy, in the instant-erbs, the huge build-out of nuclear, they did the UK, obviously, started drilling in the North. So you had huge change. So we look at this opportunity now and we say, huge changes needed. But for certainly, for my perspective, this huge regulatory change that's needed, because the reality is, why are we going to electrify our energy system when electricity is so expensive? So I'd be really interested here where you feel that there is the political appetite to actually really make change happen. In this crisis, there was polling being done on citizens supporting the energy transition. And the result of this polling was, yes, citizens want this energy transition now to happen. And that is the basis of political appetite to move forward. I do believe we need more bold politicians that say, let's move forward because we need to be in a better place tomorrow. Let's also acknowledge that the energy field is not an easy one for policymakers. Because you have to take decisions now, the projects that are very intensive in KPICs, that need several years sometimes, for example, with regard to offshore wind to be realized. So you say you have one mandate to write rules and then one mandate to build. So an energy politician, an energy policy maker, an energy minister, or an energy commissioner is taking decisions, but he will not or she will not see the results immediately. And that is for a politician, not something that is easy in itself. What does that mean is that you need to have a clear vision, not just projections, not just targets, but a vision on where are we in the midterm and on the long term. And then implement a policies that go towards that direction. I do not have an issue with baby steps, as long as you set many, many, many in the same direction. And that is something that is very specific to an energy policy maker. You are always challenged to address a crisis in the short term, but you need to work on measures that are more in the long run. It's also interesting to me to talk to you coming from a financial world, because it also points to a dilemma that I often had, is if you do big energy projects, intensive in KPICs, that take multiple years to realize. Everyone comes to see you and asks you as an energy policy maker to de-risk, to have legislation that is stable, gives regulatory stability, so that people can go talk to their banks, to have the money to get the project financed. I sometimes felt frustrated that they always came to the energy department, to ask for de-risking for everything. So in this crisis that we are now, and then the leap forward that we need to take. I agree with your view, maybe it's this second crisis now that will radically change. We also need to come together from multiple perspectives, and we need to talk more also to each other, finance world, the off-takeer world, also the generator side, to see how can we come together and work together to achieve this common goal, a future-proof energy strategy, more homegrown electricity, how can we achieve this together? Can I just maybe, before we move away from the political situation, it's also intriguing for me to look at one of the things that's really interesting about Europe and complex, is that obviously each country has their own interests at heart, and what I see oppressed across Europe is you've got a country like France, which has its view in terms of the future's nuclear. You've got a German view which views the world, to be, it's all about renewables to actually really gas again. And then you've got Eastern Europe would have a different perspective. So everybody has these different perspectives. How do you think we sort of move forward with regards bringing all this together? First a line on the general consensus based in facts that an energy system driven by renewables is the cheapest one, including also grid investments. And the reason is simple because you don't have a fuel cost. So if you reduce the fuel cost that comes from imported fuels, then you will have a radically more cheaper system. We should align at European level. And we should embrace the fact that the national energy mix is something that is national. We should not fight it. And I give you a very specific example. If Belgium would interconnect to Norway, that would be very interesting for both Norway and for Belgium because the wind zones are not correlated. So that means that we can help each other with clean electricity at any point in time because our wind zones are not correlated. But Belgium is usually connected to France. And Norway has an issue in summer with low water in their hydrocapacity. Well, they can tap into the nuclear capacity that comes from France. So at one point in time, we also need to accept that yes, we have different choices and different focus points, but this cannot diverge our focus that it should be driven by renewables. I've been in so many energy councils when there was a real fight about which is the preferred technology and people fighting each other on national choices on energy mixes. But really this is water under the bridge because every member state can decide its own energy mix. But we have targets with regard to climate, with targets with regard to renewable energy. So let's focus on that. Build a system that is based on renewables. It will be the cheapest, it will save European economy and society as a whole a lot of money and just don't fight on specific choices in specific member states. So Tina, now you are the head of Winirop. Of course, we like wind a lot. Can you explain a bit the situation of the wind industry right now? Because if I look the past two years on tour 25, there was a wind road. Of course, there's a lot of stories around the supply chain. So the vision is that from the outside that we have is that solar is going on, but wind is kind of struggling or maybe it's at a crossroad. So explain a bit what's the situation of the industry right now. First I'd like to say that we are absolutely stepping up the task if we are looking back at 2025, what happened last year. We saw in 2025 an increase of wind capacity. Wind is now 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe, but the most important number that I wanted to cite here is the billions that we have invested in 2025. If it's 45 billion in final investment decisions. So euros for projects that are final and that will be built the coming years. That means there is confidence from the industry that indeed they can take these decisions that risk confidence in regulatory frameworks that this project can be built. It also points to the fact that it's a scalable industry. Germany for example is one third of all installations because they had this fast permitting that they worked so beautifully in Germany. They implemented an overriding public interest and we saw the industry follow it. Also in the years to come, one third of the installations onshore wind installations will be built in Germany. So we are generally up to the task we have the technology for onshore wind, also for offshore wind. We see more and more auctions coming. There is consensus that we can work with CFDs. We have a market design that is working that gives also this price signal and these 45 billions are invested. Why? Because there is regulatory stability. So they can easily go away if we are now back paddling on existing rules that exist. We need a second leap. We need to move from crisis to confidence and we cannot do so. If there is regulatory instability to come, if existing rules based on which investment decisions are taken, if they are continuously put into question. Yes, we are up to the task and the state of the industry is rather good. We have our challenges. We will see more projects coming. If there is a more predictable project pipeline, we will also see that costs will come down. We see a challenge in moving these competitive wind energy to pass this through to off-take or services, particularly a challenge with regard to electrification. We need to consume more electricity. We need to electrify transport. We need to electrify housing. We need to electrify industrial processes that for which it is already possible to electrify today. For example, medium and low temperature heat processes. If we meet this challenge one at a time and are able to address this one, then we will see a further increase of wind in the years to come. Tinnik, maybe we just dive a little bit more into the numbers because if I look at the numbers for 2025, if I just look at Unshowwind, it looks like you are certainly at a 10-year record in terms of installations. I must admit I am a little bit surprised at it and the reason I am a little bit surprised is because it is generally feel that there is resistance to these larger turbines. Explain a little bit where that number has come from. Unshowwind is just a very competitive technology. Unshowwind is 90% of all the installations that we have today. Even if they are sketched up by a showwind, the ratio will remain more or less the same. It will be 80% of Unshowwind and 20% of Offshore. There is resistance to these higher turbines, but this is a resistance that we need to overcome. We need to build confidence that energy transition is supported by citizens. Because if we re-power existing Unshowwind installations, we can reduce the number of turbines, we can double the capacity, but more importantly, we can triple the generation. Let's look at Italy. Italy has 13 gigawatts of Unshowwind installations. Six gigawatts will be having a lifetime of 20 years between now and five years. So if we focus on this thick gigawatts of projects, if you can decrease the number of turbines, double the capacity and triple the generation, the Italian energy system will be in a far better place. Italy is so gas-dependent today and we see this in electricity prices in Italy today. And the only way for Italy is to increase renewable electricity in the energy mix. And they can easily do so if they have a dedicated approach to repowering. What does it look like? A dedicated approach is specifically with regard to permitting. These are existing projects. That means they are already in a place where there has been looked at environment, for example, how close they are to where people live and so forth. Of course, we will be adding capacity. But let's then do environmental permit for the capacity that you add and not treat this as completely new greenfield projects. Unshowwind is a beautiful technology and it's often underestimated what can be done with it. Antina, by the way, I'd be 100% in agreement with you in terms of Unshowwind. I also would share the vision actually that what we need to do is repower all these old turbines, et cetera, et cetera. And if let's take the case of early movers like Spain, Germany, Ireland, you say, "Okay, you take all these Unshow turbines and you upgrade them." And then I sort of begs the Christian, "Do we need off-shorewind at all?" We do. Spain is a beautiful example. What can be done with Unshowwind? They basically repower their whole system. But Spain, with regard to off-shorewinds, may be more difficult situation. Offshorewind, it's very deep waters in the Mediterranean. So that's a beautiful case for floating. Floating is very expensive today, but it's an innovation field. So we do hope that we see the first off-shorewind auction in Spain soon. But that will not be from the beginning of very big projects. But in the North Sea, for example, off-shorewinds is very easy. Very easy is maybe a little bit too strong, but it's no regret. It's an absolute can-do. You can build the interconnections. You can interconnect. You can do this in a hybrid way. You can interconnect a different countries with each other. There is already a lot of off-shorewinds, the North Sea, but also the Baltic Sea really can be the power engines of Europe. The North Sea has a very large energy-intensive countries, like Germany, Belgium, for example. So it's a beautiful add-on to the energy system, specifically if you have your mesh grids, if you interconnect more. Let's look at Poland, for example. It's very ambitious with regard to off-shorewinds. It will be across the Baltic Sea, an emerging leader. They have done their first auctions. They are building today off-shorewinds. And we also see in our outlook, it's the third market. You have UK, you have Germany, and then you have Poland. They have seen in the northern part of Poland a lot of investments in supply chain. They show in reality that if you do an auction with a CFD, the project is being built that the supply chain follows and it's creating a lot of jobs. But Poland, with regard to on-shorewinds, they have basically no installations. Also because of a distance rule. That's something that really I cannot understand. In a country like Belgium, which is so densely populated, we do have on-shorewind. So if Belgium can build on-shorewind, then certainly Poland can do it. So it's also important for policymakers that they do an effort, consistent efforts, to have both technologies, both on-shore and both offshore that they develop ways to have them both in their countries. We follow absolutely what you say. But at the same time you have country like Sweden who have decided to cancel all of their offshore wind and I can tell you why I mean It's the nuclear lobby period is nuclear lobby. They say offshore wind is too expensive So let's go nuclear and two months later they say oh can we have a lot of subsidies or nuclear Those people you can't say it. I can say it they are nefarious Because you can have both and the same speech have been used in the US To block offshore wind in the North East and in Sweden. So I'm sorry to say Swedish. I love Sweden But here this is a massive massive stupid move It's ideology and when you have a ideology Ideology is expensive. You know one of short wind. Okay, people are gonna pay if you don't develop offshore wind in Sweden Okay, sorry, that's my rant It's that if ideology comes our way and it's really something that we should be very conscious About is what do we need this Europe today as Europe we need Europe to be a place to invest Why because people need jobs people need to pay their rent and so on So we can beautifully combine the needs for having Access to homegrown electricity with Europe being a place to invest. So this is not about ideology It's about feeling safe Not to worry where electricity is coming from because we build it ourselves. We control it ourselves Not be worrying about the price because we are dependent on someone else and we know if our system runs on renewals It will be the cheapest one We should really also call it as it is that there are people that make this about ideology and When making this about ideology it will also hurt us as a wind industry Because basically we have to put a money on the table to build this project 45 billion in 2025 for put on the table We cannot afford this if it's purely about ideology We are an industry. We are not a political party. We are not a lobby group We are not an NGO. We are people that decided that our business is wind And we put the money next to it. So give us stability and give us decisions that are Grounds impacts and not on mere beliefs Well Tina, thank you so much for this message of resilience and fight because we need to fight But also I like your positive vision and how wind integrates with grids We need more interconnection. We need more collaboration and you know that we are working on this crazy But doable project of building an interconnector across the Atlantic because that's the way the 2040s This to work we need to extend our grid as much as possible and if you look at the economics they're like extraordinary Because you talk non-correlation here the non-correlations are absolutely perfect So it would strengthen the North Sea basin and Canada together. So I So that when you hope a few days ago in Madrid was a great success. So Congratulations and keep on the great fight Absolutely and I consider myself being a happy warrior to do this fight in 1936 Churchill already said that you cannot afford to look back and that is I think what drives me also in this job We have to look forward. We have to imagine how the future will be and we cannot afford to look back Well said. Thank you. Thank you very much for coming on the show. Yes. Thank you for having me So Jarb when we thank Tina for coming on the show and I'm always sometimes frustrated after I took to politician They pass laws they fixed target and the industry the investor will follow and They don't understand that passing laws does easy part yet the hard part is execution, right? It is in the short term politician can only act on prices We have our energy crisis right now. So okay, they're gonna throw subsidies and the amount of subsidies put on the Fossil through sector really upon the puke or the tax they actually on price But volume that's a tougher one you it takes time it takes years Understand politician one short term result, but we are industry people who are finance people We we need time to enact and I can tell you we're working very hard You're absolutely. I mean the capital is available and I should got a huge competence This is an area in Europe in this whole area. So I which are not yeah, I want to share with you a phony anecdote While I was at Panatic CIS more than 20 years ago We were launching the first debt fund for wind in France. It was one of the first in Europe It was in partnership with the government via the environmental agency called Adam So we had structure a kind of mezzanine where the Adam would take the first loss and then private banks would Finance the senior tranche and that was very successful But unfortunately the good idea turned a bit of a disaster because all the developers were pumping up their p50 and p90 and I think the fund ended up owning a third of To win firm because the equity went to the old anyway, and that exists and Adam we organize a seminar for the industry to explain the strategy you present the fund give advice and so on tips We had 185 participants so Adam got very pumped up and Decidered to organize their own seminar or you know with the same list of people and to follow up I don't need 12 people coming So they called us they were really pissed off and my boss at the time told them laughing Last time we came with the government money to cash out everybody was willing to support your pontification But now you want to lecture the industry with no money so nobody's interested Anyway wind I think what I conclude you know all of it is Wind as a future and an important very important role in Europe Whether it be from the electricity production side or also from jobs perspective and production You know we've obviously got the best as the same as this world access are you overall? I think she was excellent when we talk about repowering That's how a lot of new winds gonna be developed because the these are the best sites and they are really connected So repowering found Tina superb. I think on floating she's totally delusional Protein is one of the technology that is an engineer dream and a Financing on nightmare I think I'd agree with you now, I agree totally You know like I'm a technologist at the end of the day and for me a technology to be scalable You need to be producing millions of us and you need to be doing it again and again and again And you ain't doing this when it comes to offshore floating wind I actually can't it's what that means is very difficult to get the call still Like an economic At the end of the day the success of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is shallow waters Very good wind regimes and but especially a supply chain, you know people who are used to go on the sea and you know from the oil and gas industry Right exactly exactly. I think the attempts in the Mediterranean are gonna be tougher You get the wind but it's deeper. I don't think you have the supply chain The last point I want to make and I think that's very positive for us is that she really get the fact that you will need more interconnections Yeah, you know There's always my message Solar pairs with batteries and wind pair wears with transmission. Yeah You're absolutely right on that. All right my friend as ever could have a good conversation Yeah, and yeah, I'll talk to you next week look forward to it Thank you for listening to redefining energy Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple podcast Spotify or the platform of your choice