Will the uptrend in global liquidity be sustained?

Happy Monday out there, Team 42. It's your skipper here, Darius Dell, to present our Macro Minute for Monday, September 14th, 2026. Hope everyone had a great weekend. So as always, we'll start with the executive summary from today's lit up morning note. So let's dive right in. Today's key macro question is, will the uptrend in global liquidity be sustained? The short answer is unlikely. Key leading indicators of global liquidity currently signaling meaningful downtrend over the medium term per the 42 macro global liquidity model. Investors should prepare for a deepening of the nascent cross-asset correction. Any breakdown in global liquidity this fall is unlikely to be sustained given the eventual policy responses from the Fed and U.S. Treasury Department. In fact, a transitory breakdown in global liquidity and sharp slowdown in capital markets activity may be just what the doctor ordered with respect to pulling forward the advent of Paradigm D, aka default via debasement, because the Trump administration has repeatedly signaled that it will do whatever it takes to win its manufactured AI race with China. The administration likely views a deepening of the Biden-Trump nationwide affordability crisis as a reasonable price to pay to support their primary objective in the context of the monetary base expansion that Paradigm D requires, and primary objective being obviously to accelerate AI development and infusion as quickly as possible. So just real quick on this. I mean, guys, come on. Do you think these guys went to D.C. for President Trump's election? President Trump's inauguration for a photo op? Do you think they went there for a photo op? I'm asking for a friend. What do you think they went there to do? No, no. I'm asking you, viewer, what do you, viewer, think these people went there to do? What I think they went there to do, you may or may not agree with me, what I think they went there to do is to secure some sort of backdoor deal that says the U.S. government will help them accelerate the pace and the diffusion and development of AI. As quickly as possible, because they're spending a lot of money on this and they're taking some big risks with their own personal balance sheets and they want to make sure that they have the full faith and backing from the U.S. government to do this. And of course, we can weaponize this manufactured race with China as a reason that we need to power, you know, plow our head in the sand and move forward with development as quickly as possible. That's my view on it. I mean, no one knows, right? The answer is no one knows, but you have to have a view if you want to have an informed view on markets. And my view is that these guys all went there to kiss the ring and secure, you know, secure favor. Again, this has been happening for the literal whole time human beings have been in existence. You think we somehow, because America is a republic that we somehow figured out, like we stopped corruption 250 years ago. Governments have been corrupt the entire time. There've been governments on earth. We're not special. So if you think we're special, good luck with that. So as always, wrapping up with a question from our community. This one's titled AI Slowdown. It says, hello, by the way, great weekend. Research DD, the macro scouting report and the interview with Adam and Luke was special. Also great slides on the Eurodollar talk. Very helpful. New subscribers would eat them up and speed up their learning curve. Thanks for the kind feedback. Does the slowing of AI impact our productivity thesis at all? Or do we stick with our findings? The AI CapEx bubble represents a massive aggregate demand shock that is orthogonal to the structural and cyclical tailwinds supporting our resilient US economy and paradigm C, aka running hot themes. So just answering the question. So in our view, we don't think there will be a material slowdown. In AI development, what we think is happening here in terms of anthropic and open AI, the bleeding large language model producers, they're trying to scare monger us into believing that the US government now needs to implement some form of regulation that effectively allows them to achieve their regulatory capture objectives, right? As long as anthropic and open AI, and now, and obviously Elon's getting involved too with SpaceX AI in terms of signing off on this kind of, let's lock arms and, and scare the public into forcing the government to lock us in as a triopoly in terms of large language model development, that in our opinion, we think this is just a very clearly, plainly obvious form of regulatory capture. And again, I tend to stand on the shoulders of giants with a lot of this stuff. David Sachs on the All In podcast, somebody I generally disagree with on a lot of things. I do agree with him on this. He's obviously a brilliant man, however compromised he may be. But I think he has the most accurate take on this entire thing. Which is, these guys just want to secure regulatory capture. The first, it was the duopoly between SpaceX, or between anthropic and open AI. Now it's now a triopoly with the advent of open AI, open XAI. And so, you know, we're watching some, some weird stuff happen in real time. This is one of the most historic times ever to be a human being, let alone an investor. So, you know, obviously politics are getting involved. And so, the one thing I would just remind investors is, look, this stuff's hard, it's complicated. Anytime you add politics to the mix, it's messy. Guess what? You got to do this. You got to have a view on this stuff because it is impacting global financial markets on a daily basis. Where your portfolio winds up three to five years from now, or 10 to 15 years from now, this stuff will matter a material degree to those outcomes. And so, if you're not doing this research, if you are burying your head in the sand, or if you are too politicized to hear anything negative about your preferred party, then that's on you. You can have whatever outcomes you want, terrible outcomes, investment outcomes you want, 10 to 15 years in the future, that's on you. But for those of us who want to retire on time and comfortably, and/or help our clients retire on time and comfortably, this is the platform for you. So, we'll wrap it up there. Darius Doe here presenting our Macro Minute for Monday, September 14th, 2026. Best of luck out there today. We'll catch you back here tomorrow. Cheers. If you enjoyed this content, please remember to like and subscribe. Thank you. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or a solicitation. Reliance upon the information in this material is at the sole discretion of the viewer or listener. Investing involves risks. Any reference to a company, issuer, or investment strategy is for instructive purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. For full disclosures, visit 42macro.com/disclaimer.