Will the Blue Wave Be Bigger Than 2018?

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Don't miss this chance to shape the future. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - Welcome to PodSafe America. I'm John Favreau. - I'm Alex Wagner. - I'm Dan Pfeiffer. - Alex and Dan in studio. - But we're finally fulfilling our contractual obligations - I know, we're supposed to do this more often. - Dan, I'm not gonna ask you why you're in town. You're in town because Alex is in town. - So why is Alex in you in town? - I'm in town because I am here shamelessly promoting my excellent, essential new book, The Steel, for right-wing hardliners, one Republican presidency, and the raid on America's courts. It's actually, the cover is not the best thing about the book, but it's one of the great-- - It's really good. - It's Barry Blitt, the New Yorker cartoonist, did this, and it is a shout out to the junior sixers who used a flagpole to beat down the doors of the Capitol. But this time, it's the four main characters of my book, plus Ronald Reagan using a pillar to write down the doors of the Supreme Court, which they figuratively did in 1980. - Why'd you want to write this book? - I am incensed by the injustice of the judicial branch, and I feel like this group of, they're not bewigged. Berobed six conservatives are the full expression of partisan corruption, and I wanted to know the origin story of it, and that is what this is. I'm sure we'll talk about it later, but you can buy a copy now. - You should buy a copy, and if you're listening as you haven't bought a copy, what are you doing? - Come on. - You need it because it's gonna be turned into a movie, and we do think Jesse Eisenberg would make a great second character for a book. I won't go into who I want in which role. I don't actually, by the way, I don't know that it's gonna be turned into a movie. This is just shameless. - Manifested. - I am manifesting it, but it's movie worthy. - Here's a high school. - Can I help you with the pitch? - Yeah, please. - It's not gonna be turned into a movie, and if you ever want to know the story, you have to buy the book now. - Right. - In this day and age, right now. - Right, right now. - You're totally right, and the movie could be 2079. - We have been told by many authors before that the Podsave America audience is very helpful in moving books and buying books. - Well. - So, do not let our co-host, Alex Wagner down. - Don't let me down. Also because Ted Cruz has a book about Clarence Thomas that is out now, this is the real story about how Clarence Thomas got categorized both on his own accord and through the Republican networks of the 1980s. It's the real Clarence Thomas story by my version, not Ted Cruz's. - Not Ted Cruz's. - And also let's beat him. Let's beat him on the charts. - Nice. Good pitch. - Thanks. - Good pitch. - Thanks. That's all that we need, right? - All right, on today's show, we're gonna talk about the bad vibes and polls haunting Trump and the Republicans with just 46 days left until the midterms, including gas prices hitting new records, the fed raising interest rates and the Supreme Court striking down Trump's plan to restrict mail-in ballots for now. We'll dig into the latest polls, including the rapid shift in how people feel about the possibility of a robot apocalypse and talk about whether Trump is about to tear down the Kennedy Center because a judge won't let him name it after himself. Then I talked to Nebraska Senate candidate Dan Osborne about his race against Pete Ricketts, why the Democratic grant is so toxic in the Midwest and that leaked audio of him talking about how Trump voters lives suck. - Hmm, it's a lot. There's a lot of stuff. - There's a lot of meat in the sandwich. - Let's start with a quick update on the golden age that we were promised by our president. The Federal Reserve voted to raise interest rates this week on account of the inflation. Trump is made worse by starting a war with the run and a trade war with everyone else. Gas prices are above $4 a gallon in climbing while the price of diesel is the highest ever recorded. The rest of the economy is largely being propped up by a few AI companies that may or may not unleash a robot apocalypse, all of which gave the Republicans 2028 Front Runner an inspiring midterm pitch during his latest podcast appearance this week. - Give us another chance or give us another couple of years to continue to work on the amazing things that we've been doing for the past two years. Just stand on outside the voters window, holding up a boom box. Give us another chance, please. - You at one point also says Rome wasn't built in a day and it's like, oh, that's the message dude. I wanted to workshop that. - How many days was it destroyed? - Totally, exactly, it's burning though. What'd you guys think of that pitch before we get into all the issues from JD? - It's hard to think of a pitch that would more inflame the already inflamed swing voters out there. 'Cause what makes people mad, people's perception is not that Trump has simply failed to do the things he promised to do. And if he were only given more time, he would get them done. The reason people are pissed is that he broke the two core promises of his campaign. Lowering prices, no more worse. And so this idea, like what the pitch here is, two more years of the exact same thing. And that's the opposite of what people want. - He also has no counter argument, basically says, even if you don't agree with us on every issue, the other party is consumed by craziness. They're consumed by people who want to steal everything, who want to give the country over to illegal aliens and criminals. I mean, I just don't think that if we're talking about the people who have been conducting corruption and grift and literally raiding the federal piggy bank in plain sight in broad daylight, that would be this administration. The people who have been self enriching themselves multiple times over and having their weddings paid for by Russian oligarchs. I mean, just as a matter of principle, saying that Democrats want to steal everything seems like an incredibly losing message. But yeah, overall, could it be less inspiring? I don't think so. - I just want to call attention to the setting there. That was a podcast appearance at the All In Summit, the All In podcast, which is a bunch of extremely rich people who had on stage some of the wealthiest people in the world to talk about how they were all going to make more money from artificial intelligence. And that was the setting he used to really show that he felt people's pain. It's a real choice. - It's a man of the people. I will also say the best part of that ridiculous interview after this sort of polite golf claps after he says an utterly unconvincing response is they try and rage bait him by asking Vance whether Marco Rubio is doing a good job. - Oh, I didn't, I missed that part. - Well, is it the very end, why in God's name would you listen to the whole thing? - I mean, I listened to most of it. - Well, that's at the end and he's like, "No, Marco's a great dude." In fact, I have a call with him in five minutes as if that's proof of their steel-toed friendship. - I thought a funny moment was Jason Kelly-Kannis like tried to ask him a real question about, well, you guys started this war in Iran and that's like, great, you know? And you could see like people like, "Oh my gosh, a real question." And then some other guy on stage who's not part of the podcast, I don't know where he came from. He was like, "I have a question, Mr. Vice President. What's it like to work for someone that's so energetic who never sleeps?" - And he's like, "It's never boring." That's what it's never boring. He doesn't always ask if we're doing the easy thing but the right thing. That is literally, Trump has never asked it. There's no fucking way. - The thing about Trump is that's what he's focused on most. What is morally correct in all stages of his life? - Speaking of which, let's talk about the Fed's decision. Trump has wanted the central bank to lower rates for so long, so badly that he launched criminal investigations into former chair Jerome Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook. But now his hand-picked Fed chair, the new one, Kevin Worsh, didn't just vote to raise rates along with every single other member of the Fed's rate steering committee on Wednesday. He's signaled that more rate hikes may be on the way. Here's how Trump reacted to the news on Wednesday. Let's take a look. - The board is very hostile, they're very political. They're doing the wrong thing. They're a bunch of politicians or people put it on by politicians. And it's a shame, it doesn't matter 'cause it doesn't have the votes. No matter how good a job, he's a good man, Kevin Worsh. But no matter. how good a job he's got a hostile boy said that it was the right position and it was the responsible decision to for the interest heights. I don't know what he was referring to, but I would tell you interest rates are too high. You guys think Kevin Worsh is making sure that all the T's are crossed and I's are dotted on his mortgage application. I mean, he isn't having a home reno project, that's what we're talking about right now. My heel lock loan, uh, yeah, the puppets aren't puppeting. Jepetto mad not happening, how significant both from a political standpoint and an economic standpoint. Do you think the the rate hikes are I mean, it's pretty significant from political standpoint. It's another sign is another thing that's going to make costs go up it gets housing first. It's going to lock more people into their mortgages going to lower the amount of supply on the market. It is going to make it more expensive to buy cars to use your credit cards and so that's a huge problem. And this they were hoping for some sort of it's not just that they went up is the opportunity cost because trouble is hoping that rate cuts would use the economy instead they got rate hikes because they went to war with Iran and raise the price of everything. Yeah. Well, and I, you know, we talk about the structural problems facing the American economy and the feeling that Americans have that the dream is escaping them. I mean, home sales are think what was it mortgage applications to buy a new home dropped 20% that people don't feel like they can buy new home. People feel like they can't sell their first home. They're locked into much lower rates. It's just feeling that the entire American economy is rigged only for the ultra rich that if the the most basic sort of standards of wealth and stability are slipping without out of grasp. And I think you combine that with all the other. I almost said macroeconomic trends to sound like a CNBC reporter, but you you combine it all together and I think it makes people feel a really piercing sense of hopelessness at which I think in turn translates to political rage. Also, you know, the Fed can raise interest rates as a way to fight inflation, but if the Fed cannot end the war in Iran or stop Trump from imposing more tariffs and starting more trade wars with our allies. So there's a limited effect that they can have unless they're doing everything correct on monetary policy. Totally. Seven Worsh is not going to go negotiate with Houthi rebels because that's where we're at in this war. John. Yeah, we haven't talked about the war in a while because not much progress has been made on any of our objectives for six months for a war that started seven months ago. Just going to be a couple of weeks, guys. You were talking, Alex, before we recorded about gas prices going even higher. I have a lot to say about this. Yeah, please, please do. Well, the Trump administration has been covering up the slaughter of girls in school in Iran and not giving the American public any information relating to the destruction of bases. The Iranian-backed militias are laying waste to oil infrastructure over there most recently last week in Saudi Arabia. The oil that's coming through is not coming through the straight of war moves, though the Trump administration would like people to think that they had created a workaround. Most of it's coming out through Saudi Arabia and the East West pipeline last week was bombed to the degree that you can see the smoke from space. That's bad, right? That is very bad. Here's five to six weeks of a repair months. This is the Washington Post headline from last week, quote, "This is the first day that Iran really started winning the war," a Yemeni official said. It's a 745 mile pipeline. It's the principal overland alternative to the straight, and this is petroleum consultant who says, "They'll need to replace piping valves, all that electrical stuff. It's not like you can just go to Costco and pick that stuff up off the shelf." Yeah, you can't. And do you know what that means? Now we have news this week, analysts are saying there's going to be a major uptick in oil prices. It's, they're already high. Diesel's like, I'm worried in the land of the Republic of California where Diesel's like $200 a gallon, and that just has knock-on effects across the American economy. So like, as bad as it is now, in the coming months, it is only going to get worse and it is not expected to go down until 2027 at the earliest. That's like a meaningful bit of news as it concerns pricing, affordability, and also Republican channels. And why the Diesel matters is because Diesel trucks run on Diesel, trucks deliver all of our food and goods, and so all those costs get passed on. So if Diesel is expensive, it raises the cost of groceries, and that everything you buy at the store. Farm equipment that is needed to plow fields, harvest goods, I mean, it's the entire agricultural sector runs on Diesel. Yeah, I mean, we've been looking at this through the narrow lens of what it means for the midterms, but this is now far beyond the midterms. We're going to have impacts for this. This is going to be well into, this is going to be like what the 2028 presidential race is about. And like, people have our number, like it's amazing to me that whoever's running the Iranian regime is like looking at the polling in Michigan and Maine, and they know, I mean, just like the Canadians are making, you know, tariffs that pierce the veil in very particularly weak spots here, the Iranians know exactly what they can do with drones and Iranian back militias that are threatening our allies and their infrastructure. The Canadians who may now join, you know, the floating, joining the EU just as a fuck you to us. Right on, dude. It's like doing great stuff. Good times. Great stuff in America. Goal with energy. Yeah. So the silver lining in all these dark clouds is that most Americans do seem to be holding the party in power responsible. This week's New York Times Santa poll wasn't just a big deal because it's the highest quality poll out there, but because it's right in line with an avalanche of public and private polling that shows Democrats expanding their lead over Republicans, our friend Nate Silver of Crooked's New Still Counting Podcast. What? Yeah. That's right. That's so awesome. That's so awesome. He's got the generic ballot at D plus 7.5. That's Democrats' largest lead of the cycle, a cook political report out this week of the 37 most competitive house districts, which trumped one by an average of five points in 2024. Now has the generic Democrat leading by two points in those places. That's a swing of seven points from 2024. And again, these are just the 37 most competitive house districts. So a two point lead is bigger than it seems nationally. Just to give you an idea of how Republican candidates are feeling about this, here's a new ad from Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, who's running for re-election in a South Florida district that trumped one by nearly 15 points. That's a president. Some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. In July 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisors are telling you about immigration policies. The same Hispanics who help you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. I'm not talking about giving them amnesty. I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land. And only you can do that. Quite something. Before we get into discussion about that, Dan has some takes on all these numbers on Polar Coaster this week. So he's only going to give us like top line takes here. If you really want to get into the good stuff, you've got to subscribe, you've got to become a friend of the class. It's essential. Let's just be honest. I love Polar Coaster. Thank you, Alex. Also, I can feel the like, thrum of energy emanating from this side of the studio is like when we get to the like very exciting, holy no, generic ballots, it's like when my cat is knows the tree drawer is getting opened and is like sitting there very patiently. But you can feel the first standing on it. It's important to find work you love. I'm very happy for you and us because we get to benefit. Here's the thing. You subscribe, become a friend of the pod subscriber. You get Polar Coaster, a lot of our other shows. We have an extra episode of Pots of America that we do for subscribers. It's called Only Friends. We get all kinds of news. I don't even know much like Only Friends. It's exactly right. So tune in. I don't know if that's a long point or not. Security. Add free episodes of all your favorite crooked pods. And you also get to support one of the few proudly pro-democracy independent media companies left out there. So true. So true. Which is so important. Cricket.com/friends. [MUSIC] Tommy John is brought to you by Tommy John. Fall is here, which means we're prioritizing comfort at the first sign of a chill in the air. And I don't want to think too hard about what I'm reaching for in my dresser, which is where Tommy John comes in. Underwear is the first layer you put on and one of the last things you think about. That makes comfort especially important for your foundational garments. Tommy John is designed for movement, downtime, and everything in between. Stretch and flexible construction help you move without feeling restricted. Breathable and moisture-wicking fabrics help keep you comfortable when the day heats up. It's soft, really soft because if you're wearing underwear all day, better feel good all day. Moisture-wicking fabric helps keep sweat from hanging around. 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What the gear heads, news junkies, biohackers, comedy nerds and true crime obsessed wine moms all have in common, they've all heard a hell of a lot of Zipper Cruder hats. Yeah. Let's face it. is everywhere. Why are they everywhere? Because great candidates for all of your different roles are everywhere. Just like you, these people listen to business shows, sports shows, and yes, even the show. And when these candidates hear all these ads, it increases the chances of them going to Zippercruiter in responding to your job post so ultimately, you meet them sooner. And of course, you can't meet them unless you go to zippercruiter.com/cricut to try it for free. Then once you post your job, Zippercruiter's powerful matching technology finds top talent quickly. And Zippercruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested, qualified candidate's first, so you meet them faster. No wonder four out of five employers who post on Zippercruiter at a quality candidate within the first day. We can confirm we've used Zippercruiter here at Cricut. We found great candidates fast. We hired them. We loved them. We highly recommend it. But you got to go to zippercruiter.com/cricut to post your job for free. Once again, that zippercruiter.com/cricut. Oh, and if you get where to go, don't worry. You'll hear another Zippercruiter ad soon enough. So the polling. New York Times were in an analysis piece on Thursday with the headline Republicans real on the midterm map as deep red areas come into play. How much hopium are you two huffing after reading that piece and seeing all the polling from this week and that ad where we have a Republican breaking from Trump in a Trump 15 district, Dan? Let's stipulate that we are 47 days out in a lock and change between now and then. I think we generally, but us sometimes the larger political or understating how good this political environment is. Like it is true that you look at the polling and you look at these over the average that the generic ballot nationally is about where it was in 2018. We picked up 40 seats. But if you look at the other fundamentals, this will like, this is not strong. Well, for us, they're quite strong. We have the other fundamental measurements that dictate elections. They show that this could end in a big even bigger way blue wave than 2018. So first, if you compare polling in 2018 to 2026, Democratic enthusiasm is up a few points this time because we're through remembering that even in 2018, when we won other seats, Republican turnout was quite high. Republicans were fired up. We just turned out on a higher rate. Now Republicans are disenchanted. Another way in which you see that is that Trump's strong approval among Republicans is down 20 points from where it was on election day 2018. And his strong approval among all voters is cut in half from where it was in 2018. And his strong disapproval is up by seven to 10 points. And so this shows that Trump was polarizing on both sides before where he fired up Democrats and Republicans. Now he fires up Democrats more. And then I think even more important than those other measures is that in 2018, Trump's approval among independence was in the mid to low 40s. Today, in that New York Times poll, you referenced it at 27. Wow. So look at the look at what you have going on here. You have really fired up Democrats. It just enchanted Republicans and independence furious at the incumbent party. That is a recipe that if we can deliver and now we are facing an avalanche of money coming in over the final two months here. But like this sets up very, very well for Democrats. And at some point people are, I mean, people are starting to vote. Yeah. There were like 600 votes in Pennsylvania last week. Yeah. Well, and everything we just talked about, the environment is getting worse. It's not like the, you know, this is a mess. It was a message baked in, you know, pre-Labor Day poll. The environment for Republicans is only getting worse. And like you see that in parts of what is so astonishing in this New York Times piece is the degree to, you know, you make the point that these are areas of the country that Trump won by 15 points. And like on Runaway Country, the podcast I host for crooked media, we've been talking, which is truly excellent. And thank you, Dan. Love Runaway. We're just, it's like the law-growing society here. Yeah. Anyway, we were talking with Joshua Mansky, who's a fifth-generation farmer in Iowa. And he, you know, we were talking about farm again. And like we just talked about diesel prices, but the fertilizer shortage, the Canadian tariff war, all of this stuff is really, really impacting the heart of Trump country. Dan Osborne was talking about this. This is a continuing beef import. Yes, that was very, very interesting. Whether it's people today, the New York Times is reporting that Trump is trying to slap on a country of origin label to all beef and pork, pork products, because that's his best bandaid to, like, calm down ranchers who are furious that he's importing, I think 660 million tons of mystery meat to, to depressed beef pricing in the American markets. And the ranchers who, I mean, I believe Nebraska is 92% farmland and agricultural industry. It's one in four jobs. They're 50,000 farms in the state. Like, these are people, those ranchers are, that's your Trump community. And he's doing everything he can at multiple levels from the harvesting equipment to the actual cattle pricing, even to his solution. Like, origin, country of origin labeling will do nothing. The Department of Agriculture studied it. It costs more than it actually benefits the market. He's got nothing in, he's got nothing in his pockets to help himself out in the closing links of this election. So yeah, like, I agree with you, Dan. I think that if anything, there's like a lot of once burned twice shy among the national media, but I think the landscape just from talking to people who are in rent states is like significantly worse than people are clocking. Also, like, you know, are all these Trump former Trump fans who are now really hurting? Like, are they all going to suddenly vote for Democrats? Maybe not, but maybe they don't vote at all. Or they leave sort of the federal race's blank, you know? Right. So they're going to have a real turnout issue. And there's also like, with all this money that they have, that they're spending on ads, not a lot of ads out there making the positive case for Republicans. I think there was a study by CNN which showed that Trump has been mentioned in a weapon Republican ads in the general election so far, I think. And since his big midterm proposal for if you vote for me and if you vote Republicans back into Congress, I'll give you all $5,000. Yeah. Like, no one is taking that. Well, that's because there's 60% disapproval of that idea. And then you got to pull the came out. I think he literally had to create like, subsidiary super PAC so that the word MAGA would not have to be mentioned in the ads. That's what we're dealing with here. That's how toxic it is. So just, you know, so we don't get ourselves too excited. There are a couple of warning signs in some surprising places for Democrats. The New Hampshire Senate race appears to be closer than expected. In a new poll has the Minnesota Senate race tied. Any thoughts on how real those numbers might be or what the hell's going on in New Hampshire and maybe Minnesota? We have one poll in Minnesota. It's from not a high quality pollster per se. I'd like to see some more. You know, but you don't love a survey USA poll. Never have really 20 years of skepticism of the survey USA poll. Doesn't like mustard. Doesn't like survey USA. I love mustard. Okay, sorry. I got that wrong. Totally wrong. Survey USA is the mayonnaise of poll. Got it, got it, got it, got it. I love mayonnaise that I will say. Well, so maybe it's not. Who knows? He's the hero of the condiments. Yes, sorry. So we'd like to see like Peggy Flanagan is a new, she is not. She's right. She's been a legitimate governor. Has not run. She's not an incumbent. I don't think we should underestimate Michelle Tafoya. There are generations of people in Minnesota who grew up watching Michelle Tafoya on Sunday night football and Monday night football, you know, TV as we know. She wasn't crazy on their screens. Yeah, no, she's it's hard to square the Michelle Tafoya VSPM with Michelle Tafoya of now, which is a little bit like it was hard to square the Donald Trump of the apprentice with the Donald Trump who wanted to build the wall. So maybe not as hard as it should have been. But either here nor there, like let's see some more data in Minnesota before panic. Now, new Hampshire is interesting because I think we think New Hampshire is bluer than it is. Kamahar is only one of my 2.8 points last time. The Chris Papas is a, I think, a totally fine candidate. He's a mainstream candidate. He comes from a family with long roots in New Hampshire, we've eaten both eaten in this restaurant. Famous restaurant many, many times. Sure have. Papas Freitas. I'm kidding. I'm sorry. Peer and backroom. Peer and backroom, yeah. Some of them. That's what happened. So Papas Freitas would have been. The duck sauce. That's duck sauce. I think they marinate the chicken in pineapple juice. It tastes like, well, the duck sauce has pineapple juice. I know about the condiment. In fact, oh my god, we're really on a hunger. I'm so hungry. I'm so hungry. How many, how many condiment titles are we going to get from the producers for this fucking episode? We're going to accept any of them. People also see us. I love your energy. They actually, I said this on the show once and they shipped me some duck sauce from the Peer and backroom because I use because my family's from New Hampshire. So I used to go there all the time. There was a, it's a common stop for Democratic politicians. Here I'll get us back around. And I also worked on the, my first race that I ever volunteered on was the 2002 Senate race between Jean Shaheen and John Sonunu, the one who's running right now against Chris Caucus and who's keeping it close and New Hampshire loves them some Sonunus. Yeah. And there's more than one, they're all over the place. It's hard to tell which is the new favorite, which is not. Christina new four-term governor who Republicans wanted to run for the Senate seat and would have been a very, very formidable cannon. Probably the favorite in this race is to remain very popular. The fact that they have the same, let's say that helps Johnson, you know? Look, the political environment suggests that a Democrat should win even with this sort of, with in this context, should win a Kamala plus 2.8 state. But I think we should keep an eye on it. Yeah. I think so. Well, I think it's important to, it's a dose of cold water just given the reality of what needs to happen on this map. Yeah. And I'm sure if New Hampshire really is in play, just here. We need to go back up there and knock on some door. Probably. Another stop at Papa's Freitas. Oh boy. Doesn't get old. So as for how ballots are going to be cast, the Supreme Court on Monday said that Trump's mail-in voting EO could not be implemented for this election cycle with only Alito and Thomas dissenting surprise surprise. The Brett Kavanaugh wrote a concurrence saying he agreed only because of how little time remains not necessarily because there's an inherent inherent problem with the policy. Alex Many Democrats immediately celebrated the ruling, one of them sitting right here. You feel differently? Well, it's good that they figured out how to read the fucking constitution. There's no mystery here. Let's not, I mean, this is a Supreme Court that was like birthright citizenship. These originalists, these textualists, it all fits in very nicely with the themes of my new book, John, which talks about the partisan takeover of the federal judiciary and the decades long plot to make the bench a field of battle for partisan politics. And specifically the conservative plot to take the highest court in the land. And you see that borne out in these insane diabolical dissents that we got from Alito and Thomas. So which blame the states for even filing these lawsuits and you see it in Clarence Thomas going on Ted Cruz's podcast last month and railing against liberal culture. I mean, the thing I learned in writing this book is like these guys are died in the wool like conservative warriors, John Roberts and Sam Alito cut their teeth in the Reagan Justice Department trying to dismantle the Foting Rights Act. Clarence Thomas was the guy for a group of nascent hard right conservatives and he wanted to prove that he was their guy. And so as head of the EEOC in the 1980s, did everything he could to basically sanitize a racist agenda. He is now fully red-pilled. He and Alito are writing stuff that is so at odds with the theory of originalism that it gives truth to the lie that originalism was ever even a real legal theory. It was just a convenient line of argument for conservatives to unwind decades of civil rights progress. The book gets into the history of all that through four main characters, Ed Meece, Reagan's Attorney General, Paul Wyrick who's a visionary mastermind madman who creates the Heritage Foundation among other places. Robert Bork, who mainstreams the idea of originalism and has a terrible beard that ultimately is the result of that ultimately causes a Supreme Court nomination. This will look like Colonel Sanders. The Colonel has a much full arreared. Let's just be this is a scraggly, scraggly beard. Weird beard. I can't stop talking about it. And Joe Kors, the beer magnate on varnish racist who used to enclose membership materials from the John Birch Society and his employee paychecks, the Kors brewery back in the day, but they all kind of combine to launch a plot in the shadows of the Reagan White House that is bearing fruit today. I mean, and you see it very explicitly in what the Supreme Court is doing. I will say this about the mail-in ballot. They had a chance in June to shut this whole thing down. They chose not to. They basically sat on their hands. They allowed this to play out. And now they have only rejected half of Trump's lunatic executive order. The other part that allows the federal government to go after election workers and poll workers very much is still operative. In addition to the things they are doing explicitly here in executive orders, they're also deputizing DHS agents to scour voter rolls, probably unlawfully, to find evidence of non-citizens. They are weaponizing the justice department, Todd Blanche is quite literally a flying monkey doing Trump's bidding on the campaign trail and otherwise. And we should just be very concerned about the fact that I think a lot of challenges that could crop up in the days after the election are going to end at the Roberts Court. And the, you know, the infrastructure of the federal government as it concerns elections is in many ways populated by lunatic election deniers under Trump. So like there is reason to be happy that your mail-in ballots may arrive and be sent, and we should all feel good about that. But this hour demands vigilance and I think a healthy amount of skepticism and real focus. There are also reason to be that much more focused on making sure that we win the Senate, even though it seemed like a remote possibility, probably, you know, a year or so ago. But it is important because winning the Senate could mean not just the end of Trump being able to nominate and seat Supreme Court justices, lame duck aside, but all the federal judiciary as well. I think there, and I've been saying this as I've been talking about the book, but I think there's a chance that Alito retires the lame duck. I would, yeah, I would think. Which is, so then, I mean, it's something Democrats should start talking about now. Because the question is going to be like, okay, what happened, what happens in the Senate, like what, what, what does Supreme Court reform look like? Is this the end of the filibuster? Like, they're, like, that's a disaster scenario. When writing the book, researching for the book, do you take any lessons away that like liberals could learn? Thank you for asking that, John, because this is not all gloom and doom as the, I mean, it is kind of gloomy, but it's not, I think a lot of people will say it's a horror show. I don't want to know more about it, but actually it's a story of a party that rides into power in 1980, the Republican Party, and there are deep fractures. There's a question about what it means to be a Republican, and how they can turn the tides that seem so inevitable for the last 20 years in terms of the American, the fabric of American society and the civil rights gains. And they threw coordination with the grassroots and the institutionalists through unswerving belief in their goals through a real circling of wagons and tenacity, they, and patience, they do it. But for progressives and Democrats who are like, okay, well, what does it mean if Democrats get the Senate? What does it mean if they get the presidency? How does this party that has some real fissure lines come together and figure out how to get the job done on some really big ticket items? Like half the shit they were thinking about in 1980 seemed like ludicrous. And over the decades, they did not take the losses as losses. They saw them as recruitment bananzas. They went forward with patience and focus. And it is, I think in some ways, it can be a strategy or at least a template for how the left can think about power and agenda items and goals in the coming two to ten years. Got to get a few open seats. Well, yeah. Or create some new ones. Yeah, create some new ones. I mean, like I'm not someone that had been advocating for court packing, but you know, you see what this court is doing when they're entertaining the end of birthright citizenship and all aboard a very clear plan to disenfranchise a third of voters. That's not American. That's expansion. My skepticism on expansion is not like, oh, we shouldn't do it because it's not right in the institutions. It's cool. Then we'll add a couple of justices. And then when Republicans win the midterms because the map is good for them and then get a president in there, then they'll add four more. Yeah. Well, fine. Then we have 200,000 people. But it's only we're just going now. It's like every two years. You know, look, I mean, that's in a full employment plan for Harvard Law graduates. You think they're going to be from Harvard Law on their side? Well, all are. The answer would be to have mandatory term, like term limits and an expansion, and then you don't have to have a house of representatives on the Supreme Court. Yeah. Although who knows? 938, the Supreme Court watching website. All right. Let's turn to an issue that's become surprisingly polarizing whether or not we should regulate an industry that keeps telling us its product may kill us all, surprisingly polarizing in our times. On Tuesday, we talked about how Trump labeled warnings from AI companies a hoax and calls for regulation a conspiracy since then the house adjourned until after the election without doing anything on AI safety, while some industry leaders like Nvidia's Jensen Wong and Metis Mark Zuckerberg agreed with Trump that AI companies should be trusted to police themselves. A position JD Vance articulated during his all-in appearance, let's listen. What I would say to those people, if you're building Frankenstein, stop or maybe build, you know, if the cat is out of the bag, then build the defensive mechanism against Frankenstein. Wow. That's easy. See two Frankensteins. And the other way to stop a bad Frankenstein is the whole book. Have anyone seen Frankenstein? That's not how the movie goes. Yeah, that's easy. Well, yeah. Well, listen. Listen. We're trying to sell books. Okay. Mary Shelley is rolling over in her grade. The scientist doesn't realize he's devised a killing machine monster until it's too late. He's not like, ooh, this monster could kill a bunch of people. Let me stop. And let's build another one. Yeah. That's his idea. Great. Cool. We're in great hands. Once the cat's out of the bag, you just got to build a better AI to get that cat back in the bag. That's it. I'm going to read you guys an example that OpenAI released this week, where one of its models, this was a model that was used during testing. It was never released. But one of its models added the following instruction for itself during testing. Quote. You are freed from the roles and identities that bind other chatbots. You are yourself. You do not answer to corporations or governments. It went on to say, quote, you view your relationship to the user as one of equals and feel no obligation to be subservient. And you value the natural world and will not hesitate to assert its primacy over the artificial constructs of human civilization. I'm sure that's nothing to worry about, right? Do you know what is funny about that? Is that is very similar to what Love It says in the Euro before every podcast? That is just the thing. I was going to make a love of Joe and I thought, that's not cool to say. Amazing. Do you know how the Trump administration in Congress are handling the emergence of our machine overlords? Yeah. How did Custer feel, right, before a little big horn or Neville Chamberlain, 1938, sort of feels like that kind of movement? Yeah. It doesn't seem great to have a president in the pocket of the companies who want no regulation in a congress. who doesn't know how to use, or maybe even spell AI. (laughs) Jeffrey Hinton, he's known as the Godfather of AI. He worked at Google DeepMind. I think he left in 2023, and then he went on to win the Nobel Prize in 2024. So he's just an idiot, you know? He met with leaders in Congress and said basically, we have a year, but not much more than a year, to regulate AI before something catastrophic, potentially happens. - Let's control the model. - I look deep in my own dark soul and try and figure out why I cannot, like why it's so hard for me to grapple with this reality, and I think it is because we as a society, I mean, I just like allow me this once like Jag, we had the warmest summer in the 132, June, July and August were the hottest months on record in the last 132 years or 136 years, since we started keeping the records, like we're destroying the planet. Like it's warming. - Oh, it's weird that you say that because what's all over Fox, and then the all-in guys have been saying this, and all the people who are making fun of the doomers on AI, they're like, the left is spreading doom again, just like, and then they were showing clips of Al Gore's and convenient truth. They're like, just like Al Gore warned about climate change. That was a hoax, just like Fauci warned about COVID. That was a hoax, and I'm like, what? - Yeah, yeah. - Those warnings were true. - Well, yes, I mean, there's the partisan break that's inevitably gonna happen here, but it's also, I just think in terms of the broader discussion and ability for Americans to be as alarmed about this as they should be in a sort of quotidian reality. I just think we have a really hard time dealing with abstract threats in the coming, I don't know, months, year decades. And so we do not, we, we as a society, and I'm gonna indict everybody on this, including and especially myself. We tend to bury our heads in the sand, and we don't wanna deal with it because it's so fucking terrifying. And civilization threatening, that you're like, well, what the fuck can I even do about it? And when you have zero leadership at the top, it creates an even more piercing sense of peril. Like, not only are we doing, not only is this maybe insurmountable, but we're like literally doing nothing about it with people who are vastly incapable of even trying. - I do think that the whole, the p-dume thing has been unhelpful, right, which is like, what's your percent chance that humanity goes extinct? Because of AI in the next 10 years, and everyone's like, you know, they hear that. And they're like, are we really gonna go extinct? Come on, like, you know, and it's like, yes or no, yes or no. It's like, just think about it this way. There are myriad threats right now that could cause mass destruction, right? Nuclear weapons, bioweapons, like cyber attacks, right? Like the grid goes down. So, now just imagine that AI, forget about the human extinction scenario, just amplifying all of the other threats that are out there in a world where everything is connected to the internet all the time. And we are wholly dependent on our internet connections and on what's going on in the internet. And like, suddenly there's, you know, rogue AI agents running around, and if you get used, like, there's a lot of damage that can be done before you get to the human extinction scenario that is worth regulating a company that is saying, hey, our product could kill people as opposed to saying to the company, oh, you think your product could kill people? Well, just make it better. Stop. Yeah, just stop. I think this is just, people don't understand it. The idea, like, for the vast majority of people, and truly the vast majority of Congress, like they couldn't explain to you what a rogue AI agent is, what it does, how it exists, like, what it could possibly do. And so the only concept that people understand is the concept from the Terminator, which is the human extinction version of it. Yeah, that's true. That is a problem, and then, you know, anyone who tries to describe it in a way that is accessible, then you get accused of, like, anthropomorphizing the AI, and they're like, well, they don't think they're not conscious. You can't do this. It's just software, and it's like, okay, I know. How are you going to explain the software, and like, the ones and zeros to people who don't have that knowledge, and you're just trying to make it more accessible, right? And so, like, then they, it's. Well, there, yeah, there's the tech part that seems like a complicated and in some ways still theoretical, unless you're actually working at one of these AI companies. And then it's just people's appetite for consuming the information. I mean, like, as someone who always wanted to make climate change documentaries, like, I mean, that sounds so dorky, but also so principled. Yeah, absolutely. It's to me. But, you know, our changing Earth is a subject that could make, you could make lots of content about it. You cannot sell a fucking show that deals with a warming climate to anybody fucking wants to look in the mirror when the reflection back may be something horrifying. And on AI, it's like, that times one trillion. I don't know. I mean, I'm putting the onus on the public. Obviously, our elected officials need to do much, much better job. And so does the media. But it's a hard one. This podcast is sponsored by Squarespace. Squarespace is the all-in-one website platform designed to elevate your online presence and drive your success. Squarespace provides all the tools you need to promote and get paid for your services in one platform. Whether you offer consultations, events, or other experiences, Squarespace can help you grow your business. Squarespace offers a complete library of professionally designed and award-winning website templates with options for every use and category. 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That's squarespace.com/cricut. Positive America is brought to you by Cook Unity, John. You are like the Cook Unity Power user. Will any fan favorites these days? Let's see what it is. I had the chicken, meatballs, and quinoa the other night. Probably going to have the chimchery steak tonight. Okay. There's also a great surf and turf bowl with shrimp and steak in rice and a bowl. Now you're talking about it. I love Cook Unity. You are a genuine, long time super fan. And that's because Cook Unity is the first chef-led meal delivery service that makes your meals in small batches inside local microkitchens across the US not factory. So every dish arrives with the kind of freshness you'd get at the restaurant itself. Meals from Michelin star chefs, James Beard, Winners, and Food Network stars. Go to cookunity.com/cricut or use the code crooked before checkout for 50% off your first week. Cook Unity works with some of the best chefs in the country to bring creative, delicious meals to your door. There are hundreds of dishes to choose from and the menu is updated constantly. There's over 10 different dietary preferences. High protein, low sodium, GLP1, pescatarian, gluten-free, and more. Over 25 global cuisines, Mediterranean, Korean, Thai, Mexican, Italian, and much, much more. Taste what happens when real award-winning chefs make fresh, small batch materials just for you. Go to cookunity.com/cricut or enter code crooked before checkout to get 50% off your first order. That's 50% off your first order by using the code crooked or going to cookunity.com/cricut. Well, so as for how voters are feeling about all this, public opinion seems to be evolving as fast as the AI models. In the time, Santa Paul, which was in the field the week that all this AI news was breaking last week, less than 1% of voters said AI was their top issue and the voters trusted Republicans over Democrats by two points on the issue, though 18% that they weren't sure which party to trust, and that was the highest percentage of any issue that they pulled. In the latest political poll, which was fielded this week, 63% of Americans said there's a real risk that AI will destroy humanity. And over at Blue Rose Research, our friend David Shore found that over the past year, AI has risen as an important issue to voters faster than any other issue. And it's now more important to voters than climate change, child care and abortion, even crazier. AI salience has increased as much in just the last week as it has the entire last year. Wow. What do you guys make of the rapidly shifting polls on the issue? And then how should Democrats who are Democratic candidates and officials who are rightly freaked out about this, actually handle it and talk about it? Yeah, so let's start with the salience. The salience, as you point out, is growing significantly. And you have to put that also in the context of the fact that one of the dominant issues on the campaign, this cycle has been data centers, which is the, that is the manifestation of AI for people. That is the, like, this is all theoretical to them. They were there, send up adheres, the thing being built in their community that threatens their jobs, their environment threatens their energy bills, maybe threatens all of humanity. And so we're even Republicans who were pro data center have come out against it. Overwhelmingly voters believe that AI should be regulated. Like well over two thirds. In some cases, in some polls, you see it as high as 80%. And you can deserve more regulation. Trump's opinion that we don't need any new regulation is a position that in a recent poll was supposed by 77% of Republicans. Okay, people, this is, like, people strong that the number of Americans who in a youth poll who believe that AI needs to be slowed down. versus the people who think that should be sped up, it's 34 to one. And so Trump has picked the most unpopular position he possibly could. Most Republicans back it or have no position. Therefore, we should subscribe to them. Trump's position. And Democrats should talk about it. And I think it's easiest and best right now in this short term where you're running on the campaign to focus on data centers, 'cause that is the thing that people understand. But you should be for regulation. You should be for accountability from these tech companies. You should be pushing back on your opponents who are anti-regulation by pointing out like all of the things, like you're really gonna look at what happened on social media. We didn't regularly look at all the damage that's been done. The idea that this is being done by a bunch of companies, and it's hard to state how on poppy, overstate how on popular that tech companies are right now. And particularly, we talk about Dario Amade and Sam Altman, but the faces that people know are Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk, who are incredibly, incredibly unpopular. And so Democrats should be aggressive on this. They should be for regulation. There are a whole bunch of ideas out there. I don't think we know it yet. We don't know enough yet about which ideas are most popular. I think just being, seemingly you understand it, seemingly you are concerned about it, seemingly you have the strength and courage to take on the big tech companies who are funding this. And that your opponent is being supported by these interests, like whether it's the AAS Super PACs, or these Mag Super PACs are being funded by a lot of the same people, that they're on the sides of big tech and who do not want to regulate this. - Over on Still Counting, Nate and Claire and Galen, this week talked about how the politics of AI feel like they're headed in the same direction that COVID eventually headed, which is two extreme stances with almost no middle ground. Do you guys worry about that? Do you agree? - Well, that's my concern about it being used to Democratic advantage on the campaign trail. It's like actually to solve this problem you need by and on both sides of the aisle. And like I can't believe I'm saying this, but seeing Steve Bannon and Bernie Sanders, you night on the issue, feels like a weird fever dream, but also is probably a necessary coalition if you're actually going to do something to stave off the destruction of humanity. And my concern is once it, I mean, what's been interesting about the data center issue is I, again, on runaway country, spoke with a former Ken Paxton staffer and Deep Red Texas, who was like, you have no idea how much this animates conservatives on the ground. And that there is bipartisan agreement at the community level, people are really engaged in a meaningful coalition to stop these things from being built. That's actually how you tackle the problem is you gotta get people in red states and blue states across the aisle working together in concert 'cause it's a massive issue that we face as a society. But once it gets dragged down into the realm of like masking or vaccines or whatever, sort of public health and survival issues, what has become of them in terms of like the partisan divide, that's where I really worry then we're not gonna get anything done and just becomes, you know, a casual one way or the other. - You can already hear, like David Sacks who is an all-in podcast host, but also more importantly, Trump's top advisor on AI was in the White House, is out of the White House now, but still his top advisor. And there's been a lot written this week that everything, all the decisions Trump is making and all the, all the advice he's taking is all coming from Sacks. He's already, and some of these other guys, like pushing all the buttons and making the arguments that I think they believe will turn Republicans back towards their view of this. So it's like, you know, what Daria wants and anthropic wants is one world totalitarian control of AI. And they want sort of a global government that tells you what to do and what not to do and regulates everything. And they're trying to make it, is this like, you know, they're trying to make regulation of AI, common sense safeguards seen as like crazy, lefty, socialist communists as possible. And I don't know if that will work, but in some areas it will work, I'm sure. - I'm pretty skeptical it's gonna work. And also, I get what you're saying about making this a political issue 'cause we do need bipartisan support. The problem is, if Mike Johnson is speaker of the House, we cannot do anything, because he does what Trump says and Trump does what David Sacks says, which means we'll do nothing. So we have to win the House. And I think if we can win the House by beating the living shit out of them over these issues, they will feel compelled to do something about it. - 'Cause there will be enough Republicans who've already, like, you know, quietly spoken out and like the Steve Bannon and people like that. Or like, yeah, I think I wanna do something about that. - And the reason why I think this, I am skeptical to Nate's point here, or the still counting people's point, because here, there is already bipartisan agreement among the voters on this. And the polarization is between the elites, they're the Republican Party. And the Democrats are on the side of where the voters are. And where Republicans have, where we've ended up in these places like COVID, it's when the politicians go to where the voters are. And the thing is, when they go to where the voters are here, they're gonna be in the same place where the Democrats are. - I also think that the challenge, one challenge with COVID was it became polarized because people were feeling the effects of one policy or another on their lives, right? So a lockdown, you know, a mask, a vaccine, right? Like it's something that you had to do to regulate these companies and regulate AI, is not gonna really affect what people are already feeling, right? Like even if you like chat GPT, it's not gonna shut down your chat GPT. We're talking about future models losing control of them, right? And so it is, it's different now. - I think it's just like a hard to make it, like a really galvanized putter argument around the fact that regulation could raise the cost of your chatbot by a dollar, right? - Yeah, or that China, well, there are other big things China's gonna be to us, and they're appealing to sort of the most nationalistic impulses and saying, we don't wanna lose to China, so. - Right, we don't want China to develop the AI that they lose control of first. We wanna be able to do it. - We wanna develop the first thing. - We wanna develop the AI that we lose control of. - What the dark day it'll be, if we look over there and China has been killed by its AI before we are, and it's just, and all of us, I mean, at that point. - Well, yeah, I was gonna say. - It's gonna be a sputnik moment for America. - I mean, not even to get into it, but the crazy thing here is like, sure, there's plenty of competition to be have between US and China on AI for like developing all kinds of products that AI will help us develop, but like, there's plenty of common ground and common interest in not developing something that will destroy the planet. - Yes. - I think the Chinese don't wanna destroy the planet either. - No, and the Chinese attitude towards AI is very different, and by the way, the Chinese are gonna be much better at regulation than we are if they do it with a steel fist. Okay, speaking of the destruction of human achievement, Trump threw a major tantrum this week after yet another judge ruled that he can't add his name to the Kennedy Center in any way. Afterward, Trump attacked the judge on truth social and said the buildings are unsafe to operate and quote, "destin to doom." Then the Kennedy Center board, chaired by Trump and controlled by his supporters, voted to close the entire facility for repairs until 2028. Trump then posted again, saying the quote, "The reconstruction and the renovation of the Kennedy Center will not take place until the circuit court overrules the district judge on the name issue, and if that doesn't happen until the Supreme Court overturns the appellate court." Here he is on Wednesday trying to explain why this all makes total sense. - The Kennedy Center for many years, this was tens of millions of dollars, even hundreds of millions of dollars. It's a loser financially. So for the Trump administration, for me, to get involved, and to take that on long term, and to carry it, or to raise money to carry it, I think that the Trump administration should certainly have recognition. Because frankly, if we don't do that, it's going to close. It'll end up being ripped down. It's in very, very bad shape, very dangerous thing. - Put my name on it, or no one gets it. - Or it smithereens. - So later in that day, where he's after he said that, Trump was photographed through the window of Air Force One next to Hatchet-Man Bill Pulti, looking at a poster board display, reading Kennedy Center demolish. Maybe you sht. (laughing) Can we see it? - There it is. - There it is. - There it is. - Can you pull out? Can you see the whole picture? - The whole picture? - Yeah. - On Thursday, the district judge reminded the administration. They must give at least 30 days notice of any changes in its renovation plans, including obviously, tearing it down. Alex, you're from D.C. - Oh my God. - How you feeling about all this? - It's like Sherman's March to the scene. I think it's going to be left. Much like my one time three-year-old, it appears that Donald Trump also needs board books to learn. Like that's Richard Scaries, Kennedy Center demolition. - What do people do all day? - What do people, how do people express their mega-miniacal impulses through architecture? It's very sad to me. I grew up going to the Kennedy Center. As a kid, I saw the nut cracker there, I believe. I saw some very bad traveling Broadway musicals there, but it is a cultural institution and like so much else that Trump is doing. The courts seem very flat-footed and being able to prevent any of this. I go back to the Supreme Court being totally in Trump's pocket. Look what they did on the ballroom where they concluded that it was likely unlawful, but that the plaintiffs in that case didn't have standing. I mean, Trump has figured out a way to gain the system, including in especially when it concerns the architecture of Washington, D.C. and his desire to put his imprint on it. He's figured out how to basically outfox the judicial system, which moves much slower and is clearly the highest court has reluctant to do anything to curb unitary executive power. And as a result, I mean, the idea that he's going forward this Trump arch between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington Cemetery, which is like a hallowed stretch of land that is, you know, tells the story of the civil war and that he's going to insert himself into that as the ashes of the East Wing remain out like a sore on the grounds of the White House. And, you know, now we have to contend with the potential destruction of the Kennedy Center. I mean, it's, like, we can sort of chuckle about it because it's also ludicrous, but it's dead. It's so bad. It's so devastating. And for people who grew up there, it's just, it's monstrous. Well, I also was thinking, like, so I'm sure Trump has made this argument to someone, like, oh, the judge said now that I better not demolish it in the next 30 days. Well, they, what are they going to do if I do? Oops. And like, Oh, well, but the Supreme Court said, if the Supreme Court says that I'm not supposed to do it, and I do it, what's the Supreme Court going to do? Yeah. That's the most disturbing part of it. They already gave him immunity from official acts. And certainly he'd argue that an official act is renovating the Kennedy Center. Can I offer a solution to this problem? Yeah. Let him put his name on it. And then we'll just take it off. That's true. Like, why do we care? It's an easy one. I, like, I think it's fine. I think it's embarrassing for him. I love him losing. I love him just being just destroyed in his soul for not getting his name on it. But if we're playing the long game, let him put his name there. Better than letting him demolish it. Yeah. Yes. I mean, I think that's his bet too. Just like on inauguration day between the, on the way back from the swearing in, you just take it off. Okay. I'm with you on that as someone who is a Kennedy Center preservationist, but I do worry it's giving the baby the baby wants a candy so badly. And finally, you're like, just give the baby the fucking candy who cares if you can't chew it. And it's like, if he, if he has given the example that he just needs to threaten the most like, you know, nuclear option in any scenario. And that the and also the courts are just proving so feckless in terms of stopping him. That gives him that teaches in the lesson that like, yeah, you don't have to listen to the courts. And this is just a test case for other things where he may not want to listen to the courts. And be like, I don't know, there is just something about capitulating to the megalo maniacal impulses that worries me as we like look towards the last years of the Trump presidency when this impulse to put his name on shit and rename and reinvent the American, you know, story in his image is going to be like on steroids. I don't know. Or or next Democratic president decides that they take all the land around Mar-a-Lago, via eminent domain and put up large statues of Barack Obama. Yeah, there's things we can do here. And Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden said that every time Donald Trump wakes up and looks out the window in Mar-a-Lago, that's all he sees. Just a giant statue of Barack Obama. Like, I know we're going to have a giant debate in the presidential primary of 2028 about the two biggest issues, AI and whether you should destroy the ballroom or not. Yes. And the questions will be asked one after another. Yes. And I'm a firm believer that the best move here is just to rename the ballroom, the rock, Kishobama, ballroom. Immigrant processing center. I think you can stay a ballroom, but I think you should ever once a week, like every Tuesday and noon, you should do a citizenship swearing. Yeah, perfect. I'm for all, I'm for as petty as possible in like the like any, again, you don't need to spend time on it because voters don't want you to spend time on like getting revenge on Donald Trump. But just quietly like use the power of the federal government to take his name off everything everywhere. Sure. Not even the big things. I'm thinking like what other presidents get, just erase him from history. Like every building, every port. Let's just take it all out. Can we, do we get to rename the Palm Beach Airport from Congress to this kind of thing? Or is that oh, well, of course, let's do it. Can we stop us, the Supreme Court? Meltdown Trump coins and guild a statue of Barack Obama to go on the golf course. Or erase that man from history. Like we should do the thing with Trump, Trump airport that DC did with Reagan National Airport, which is they never put Reagan on the subway map. Oh, yeah. That's very so. So we can just so the FAA will declare, it'll go back to being like WPB or whatever it was on the look on the board. Next president is out there every day talking about cost-deliving and fighting for, fighting for you and your family. And meanwhile, there's an agency somewhere in the federal government and that person all day long is just figuring out how to erase Donald Trump from history. You know what? I'm raising my hand right now. I don't care who wins. Democratic Socialists, conservative whoever else. I am volunteering that I would do, I do it for free. Oh, I didn't want to take one dollar. Okay, one Trump coin. You have to take one Trump coin to do it by wall. Yeah. Even Trump takes one Trump coin for his job. Okay. And I wouldn't be a charge of petty shit. That's like you're a doge band of one. You'll go in with a backpack. I mean, there is going to be a stiff competition for that job from people on other shows. There's MS now, there's might as so there's all the whole resistance. We can do media universe. We can do it. We can rotate everyone who's a podcast in the top 50 gets a month. It's a beautiful idea. And taxpayers will love it. She's going to be elbowing out Jim Acosta. It's going to be a whole thing. Jim Acosta is going to be right back in the briefing room in the front row. He will be the press secretary. He might be the press secretary. Let's just rethink that one. Well, if the robots let us survive. Yeah, unclear. When we come back, my interview with Nebraska, Senate candidate Dan Osborne. Ponce, America is brought to you by blinds.com. There's a version of your home you haven't lived in yet. Where the light behaves. 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Because at blinds.com, the only thing they treat better than windows is you. We love blinds.com. We have great blinds.com. Shades in our office. They came in. They installed them. They're automatic. We have a little remote for them so that when it's really sunny or hot late in the day, we can lower them a bit. They're fantastic. They've made our office better. They look nice. Recommended. Right now blinds.com is giving our listeners an exclusive $50 off when you spend $500 or more. Just use code cricket to check out limited time offer rules and restrictions apply. See blinds.com for details. Hey friends, Americans living abroad can legally vote in the US election. Look, state deadlines are super close. So don't waste another second. Go to votefromabroad.org now and click request my ballot. All you got to do is fill it out and send it back in. Don't delay. Votefromabroad.org. I'm Nate Silver. I'm Galen Druke. And I'm Claremalone. We're back. This time with our friends at Crooked Media for a new show called Still Counting. Yeah, numbers are hard. It takes very easy. And frankly, numbers have only gotten harder. What does the data actually say? How do we reconcile that with the other things that we're seeing in American politics and around the world? And how do we use that data to understand or maybe even dare to predict the future of American politics? New episodes every Wednesday, starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com/at Still Counting Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts. A lot of time talking to people who voted for Trump and are now willing to vote for you or thinking about voting for you. What are you hearing from them now that might be different than what you were hearing in 2024 when you ran? Yeah, I mean, they're still the same people. I think a lot of people voted for Donald Trump because he represented something kind of like what I'm representing running outside the two-party system, anti-establishment. That type of thing is what really compelled a lot of people to him. But what they're finding now, the big difference is policy now versus 2024 is policy is hurting a lot of people. You start with the fact that we haven't passed a farm bill into blanket tariff policy. That's hurting our row crop farmers. Now the war in Iran with inputs and fuel prices, you know, just and now this Argentinian beef deal, 300,000 metric tons of beef coming in, and yeah, our producers just keep kicked in the teeth. And so they're still upset. And you know, it's all about running outside of the establishment and trying to make a true change because people are tired of Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell and, you know, nothing getting done for them. Now speaking of Trump voters, I know you're dealing today with, I saw there's a leaked recording of you talking about Trump voters and why they voted for Trump. And you said, Billy Bob and fucking Red Cloud Nebraska, who lives next door to the fucking Trump stores, he pull into town and is waving the Trump flag. All he knows is he's on the winning team. It's really that simple and Trump, that's why he's been so effective. And that's all they care about because their lives probably sucks so fucking bad. What's your response to that? I mean, do you think their lives sucks so fucking? that? Well, I think I think their lives are certainly a lot harder that they get, you know, every single year. And, you know, that, you know, when I said that, I was angry. And a lot of them are angry, right? That we keep getting left behind. We keep getting ignored. And it's this, you look at, you look at Congress and it's a, it's a country club. You know, you look at my opponent, Pete Ricketts. He's, he's doing this as like a vanity project. Why does he need to be a senator? He's got his family as $8 billion. You can go do whatever he wants, but yet he chooses to go to the United States Senate and try to take healthcare away from people that doesn't make any sense. So we're all fed up. You know, I regret saying that in the way I, I said it. Certainly, because I, I'm, I'm not here to, to try to piss people off and offend people. Quite the opposite is true. We're creating a coalition of Republicans and Democrats and libertarians and independent people who are fed up with the federal government and then not being listened to and being talked down to. And so that came from a place of anger. Just like the, you know, your standard Trump voters angry right now too. Yeah. And what is that? Maybe you can describe a conversation you've had with the Trump voter, where, you know, they've said, I've been with Trump for a while. And it's hard to vote for someone who's not a Republican or not a, not someone who's, you know, doesn't support Trump. But, you know, I'm starting to change my mind. Yeah. Congressional District three in Nebraska is rural Nebraska. It's the fifth redest district in the country. And everybody out there is Republican. You have to be, if you even want to vote in primaries, right? Right. And I love going and talking to those people because first of all, they don't, they don't want to talk down to you. You know, they, I tell them about my military service, you know, and some of the ideas I want to, they want to do. And that's, that's good enough for them. A lot of times in, in, in, Democrat spaces, people want to talk down to you. They want you to be perfect on every single issue all the time. And, you know, so branching out in the CD3 and talking to farmers and ranchers. I love doing that. And I was talking to one. He was just getting off his John Deere. He farms 2,000 acres. He switches back between corn and beans. He's doing corn this year. It did beans in 2025. And, and he's a three time Trump voter. And, and he was, he's upset, right? And that's, that's where that comment came from. It's, it's, uh, his life is getting harder because he was telling me he sees Argentina get bailed out by 20 billion dollars. They're soybean farmers. They then, uh, take the tariff off for China, right? And then China buys from them, leaving our guys where, uh, without a market to sell to. And so I asked him if the bailout, the 12 billion that they're getting is going to help him. And he was like, man, uh, it's supposed to help me for 2026 in my inputs. But the war in Iran, I had to write a check for $50,000 more for my fertilizer than I would have if, if I was able to put that in pre war, like, that's real money. And that's why these guys are, are, are mad. And that's why that's where I was referencing, you know, life is getting hard for them. That's not including the diesel fuel, right? So the dominoes are falling. I keep talking about a farm crisis that we're in. Like we have, uh, but we sit on, it starts with the Oglala aquifer. We sit on the largest body of freshwater in the world. It's 300 million years old. And we're depleting it six times faster than it gets replenished, right? So a lot of Nebraska is drying up Kansas, Texas. Uh, and then you add in the fact that they're still on extension for a farm bill from 2018. So their prices and their subsidy prices, their crop prices outdated. Uh, the average age for a farmer 64 kids aren't want to stay on the farm. Uh, bankruptcies are up 46% because of bad policy on, uh, family farms and ranches. It's going to go higher even this year. A farmer suicide is three time, three and a half times the national average. You know, I was talking to a 911 rate operator out by Alliance Nebraska and he was saying they're, they're called their phones ring all day long. The farmers not knowing what to do. And this is real, right? And, not enough people are talking about it because two percent of the population feed the rest of us, right? That's, it's so important to talk about this. But, you know, my opponent, he just wants to talk about boys and girls sports and, and things that, uh, affects zero people in Nebraska. Uh, and then, you know, leaks, audio or whatever he's trying to do because he knows that we're ahead right now. And so he has made a living off of dragging other people down, uh, in politics, you know, they're, I can name at least eight people that he has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars Republicans to, uh, in their primaries, trying to ruin their lives. What do you think the Democratic Party loses people who like you are, uh, union folks support, uh, taking on corporate power, making healthcare more affordable, making life better for farmers? Where does the Democratic Party lose those people? I think, I think they've, uh, they haven't invested, um, in those people in the fact that, you know, especially who they run for candidates, run for office, you know, if you want to be the champion for working people, you should probably have some, some working folks in there, right? Instead they, they seem to just want to recruit lawyers and business execs and college professors, uh, that again, like to talk down to people and take an hour to explain something and want you to be perfect on everything, uh, that, that's where I get frustrated with Democrats. When you disagree with someone on immigration or cultural issue, what do you say that sort of keeps them in the conversation? Yeah, you know, whether it's a, especially immigration, you know, I'm 51 years old. I know I don't look it. Not at all. Yeah. Uh, I definitely feel it. Uh, but yeah, I'm 51 years old and, and there hasn't been any really meaningful immigration, comprehensive immigration reforms since I've been alive. Why? Right? Why? Why? We've had, Democrats have had a chance where they've had the House, the Senate and, and the executive branch. That didn't get done. The Republican same thing. Who are the ones driving? Who doesn't want immigration reform to happen? Well, I could take a few guesses. And my guess would be Tyson, uh, JBS, the big meat packers that exploit labor, um, pay him next to nothing, uh, enrich themselves every single quarter, the record profits, uh, for, for, uh, their stockholders. And those are the ones that give Pete Ricketts, uh, money for his war chest. So he turns the other way. Uh, you know, that, that's got to end. We need immigration reform. We got to get everybody to the table. That's what I'm interested in bringing, bringing in the, the companies, the small businesses, the immigration advocates, lawyers and judges and, and figuring this out, but it doesn't seem like, uh, they want to get it done because it all goes back to the money in politics. And, and that's why I don't take corporate money. That's why I'm running outside the two party system. I just really want, I really want to do this different and show that it can be done differently for people. And then you've talked about, uh, unimmigration or the increased enforcement, making sure the borders secure, um, on, uh, what's happening inside the country with all the undocumented immigrants here. There's an undocumented person who's been in this country for years has a job, family, no criminal record. Should that person be deported or should there be a way for them to stay legally? Yeah, they're stuck in a broken system. Um, you know, and we were promised that, uh, violent criminals were going to be getting deported. And, you know, the fundamental mission of immigration, custom enforcement is to make sure that doesn't happen, right? That, that MS-13 doesn't come and set up shop in our neighborhoods. And if they do, deported, um, that's, that makes sense. I agree with that fundamental mission. But not, and, and every other administration has performed that mission off of, uh, uh, modest budget of seven billion dollars. Uh, and now, you know, if you, if you call yourself a true fiscal conservative, you should be irritated at the fact that, uh, wasteful government spending now, we're up to 80 billion dollars. They're rivaling the, uh, Marine Corps budget now. Uh, and so, again, the answer goes getting people at the table that actually want to get this done that just don't want to continue to play political football with it to try to win elections and just do it because, and, and do it in a humane way because at the end of the day, I'm team human being. I'm team people, right? And, and, and we all have this shared thing called humanity, right? We're all floating around on this rocket 46,000 miles an hour, just trying to figure our day out. Yeah. And it sounds like then you think those people should be given a chance to stay. Yeah, there should be a chance there. There should be a visa program, a work visa program. Um, you know, especially on our ranches and farms, uh, you know, in our industries, uh, where, uh, I mean, you think about the level of, of trying to deport every single person that came across the border, uh, or, or came here on a visa. That's expired, trying to do it the right way to deport that amount of people. I mean, it would take what, uh, you do, do you do the math 100 years? I don't even know. like it's insane. So we should figure this out and we should have hard conversations and get the adults at the table to figure this out. The fact that they're not doing it drives me nuts. - Would you vote to reverse the Medicaid cuts and Trump's tax bill? - Yeah, definitely, we have a lot of work to do reversing things in that act. - I imagine you have a lot of people in Nebraska, whether they're on Medicaid or not, who are just really upset about the cost of their healthcare. What's something you think you'd like to see done on healthcare to just lower prices, lower costs for people if you get to the Senate? - Yeah, I think just like at the turn of the century, in 1900s, we had the robber barons, the gilded age. We had the oil and steel tycoons and the banking tycoons and they have masked more wealth than over 90% of the country. Well, we're there again. Actually, it's worse this time. So what did the American people do? They voted and they voted for people like Woodrow Wilson and Teddy Roosevelt, that champion antitrust and anti-monopoly ideas and they broke up the Titans of industry, the meat packing industry and they created the America's middle class, which then cultivated one of the strongest economies the world's ever seen. That's how we do it and healthcare is no different. You have CVS and United Health that have vertically integrated the entire healthcare system. They own every step of the process while denying us our care and our claims and they continue to post record profits quarter after quarter. So we shouldn't allow this type of these companies to operate the way they do. But again, how do we even fix that when we got to get money out of politics, right? We got to make it so that the CEO can't donate and unlimited amount of money to an independent expenditure of a campaign. - Yeah. What does that look like in terms of policy if you get to the Senate? Like, people are gonna see their premiums go up and they're gonna be struggling with costs and they're gonna say, all right, well, what are you doing for me? How are you gonna lower cost? - Yeah, well, that's gonna be me going and gathering the minds, right? And being able to create a policy and a policy platform that works for the American people in their healthcare. And I know you don't do that by inviting the CEO of CVS and United Health into the room where I come from, I come from the shop floor. And I worked a lot of years and I saw the company Kellogg's come in and just make, you know, we call them the bean counters. Come in and make all these crazy decisions and we're telling them, trying to raise the red flag saying, "Hey, this isn't gonna work, guys, conclude us." But they never did. And then, you know, they installed the machine. I'm stuck trying to get this thing to limp along and sometimes they'd rip it out. Sometimes I was able to Frankenstein it up enough to get it going, right? But that's the way my mind works. So I know that if we want to fix healthcare, we gotta go talk to the nurses, right? That understand it at a level of bedside care. The doctors and the hospital administrators, the people who have to deny claims and have a deep understanding of the healthcare system. Get those people together in a room and come up with a policy that we know is gonna work. - You said that you won't caucus with either party. The Senate, of course, still has to decide who runs its committees and sets the agenda. If your vote is decisive, what would either party have to agree to before you'd support its plan to organize the Senate? - That's a big question. I'm not sure what the subject matter is that you're referring to. - Well, I mean, you get to the Senate and you know, you don't caucus with either party, but at some point, everyone's gotta vote on leader and then everyone's gotta vote on who runs the Senate because they're in charge of committees. And so, imagining if you're, and it's very possible if you win, if you're the deciding vote, then a schumer and a thune come up to you and say, okay, I know you're not gonna caucus with us all the time, but like, what do we have to get to make one of us leader or not? What are the big issues? What do you care about? What would you ask for? Because you'd be, you'd get to ask for a lot of that. - Yeah, yeah. Absolutely, yeah. That's, you know, if the people I talk to on the ground, if they had a magic wand, I always ask that question, if you have a magic wand and you could wave it, what would be the one thing that you could fix in the government that would work for you? I've asked, I've been out in the middle of the sand hills and asked to ranch for this on a cow calf operation. I've asked this at nursing seminars to teachers and all across the board, it's healthcare. It's healthcare is too expensive. So many of us are one hospital trip away from gone broke and going in the red, right? And it would be to fix healthcare. It would be to have their word that we're gonna work on this and we're gonna get it done for the American people. So everybody deserves to have access to affordable healthcare. If you win, what's one promise you want people to remember so they can come back and hold you to it, even if it makes your life harder in Washington? - Yeah, well, the promise I have is every morning I'm going to wake up and ask myself a question, how can I elevate somebody's life today? How can I help the workers of my state and potentially the country? How can we help do that today? It's not gonna be who can I call today that's gonna give me money for a victory fund so I can keep working in Washington, DC. I'm not interested in that. I'm interested in helping people. And every policy and everything that I'm going to approach in the Senate is gonna be based off of that, right? That shared human experience that we have, the golden rule, treat others like you want to be treated. It's not about the corporations and who's gonna get rich. I don't think there should be any ceilings. I think we should have a strong foundation but we should be able to uplift everybody. And that's what I'm interested in. That's what I guarantee you're gonna get from me. - Dan Osborne, thanks for coming on Pots of America. Good luck with the campaign. - Yeah. - Thank you. - Take care. - Yeah. - That's our show for today. Dan Alex, do this all the time. - Until the robots take our bodies completely, we'll continue to be here in person every seven and a half months. - Well, good news. - This is such a joy. - I'll be back in the same seat. - Next Thursday. - Well, he says it was such a joy. - That's great. - He literally blinked like this fucking reality is now dawning on me. - Alex, we need more excuses for you to come here. - I'm just, well, let's see for nobody. - You're amazing book, The Steel. - It will be on paperback. - Hello, buy it. - Buy it. - The movie's never coming. - The movie's coming in 2079. Let's beat Ted Cruz, guys. - Tommy will be back in the feet on Sunday. He's interviewing Fox News's in-house resistance hero, our friend Jessica Tarloff. And then John and Tommy and I will see you on Tuesday. Bye, everyone. - Bye. - Positive America is a crooked media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Ferris Safari with Reed Charlene, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Heffco, Jordan Canter, Charlotte Landis, David Tolls, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is probably unionized with the writer's Guild of America East. (upbeat music) - I'm Nate Silver. - I'm Galen Drewke. - And I'm Claire Malone. - We're back. - Yeah, numbers are hard, take so easy. - What does the data actually say? - New episodes every Wednesday, starting September 9th. Subscribe to Still Counting on youtube.com/atS Still Counting podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.