Will Prediction Markets Whiff on Midterms? & DC Votes on a Foie Gras Ban

marketers say you invest in something that seems incredible like millions of views but then don't see any revenue that's not going to make your cfo happy instead invest in linkedin ads they generate the highest ROAS of all major ad networks spend $250 on your first campaign on linkedin ads and get a $250 credit just go to linkedin.com slash mbd that's linkedin.com slash mbd terms and conditions apply good morning brew daily show i'm neil fryman and i'm toby howell today america heads to the polls with the economy on their minds it's also a huge day for prediction markets data centers and foie gras it's tuesday november 3rd let's ride toby and i are putting down the morning brew and picking up an evening brewski for a special live interview event later this month the topic the future of sports at our office in manhattan we'll be chatting with carolyn tish blodgett co-owner of the new york giants governor of gotham fc of the national women's soccer league and ceo and founder of the sports venture capital firm next three can't wait to ask her thoughts about the impact of the world cup the booming popularity of women's sports whether the giants can actually make the playoffs and a lot more and we hope to see you for free on november 18th there's two benefits of this conversation as i see it one this event is at the morning brew offices so you get to see where the mbd magic happens and two you get to hear a sports exec at the highest level breakdown the secret sauce of winning championships in the case of gotham fc or winning you know a couple games in the case of the new york giants for anyone not based in new york city we are posting the conversation on youtube so you can enjoy it there as well if you do want to come hang out with neil and i in our home in the morning brew hq you can head to the link in the description below in the show description does kind of feel like our home it is our home we spend a lot of our lives here neil should we make them take their 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brew and get 25 off paid content for free ad plans with the code morning brew americans head to the polls today to vote in the midterm elections which could tip the balance of power in congress currently controlled by the republicans we're going to spend the first half of the show previewing the election and what it means for your wallet and business at large the main thing to know is if democrats are able to unleash a blue wave taking back the house and potentially the senate it'll be because of widespread dissatisfaction with the economy surveys have consistently shown that the economy is by far in the way the most important election issue for voters they're not happy with how the current administration is handling it specifically they're angry that prices have not come down as president trump has promised according to an average of polls by nate silver 25 percent of voters approve of trump's handling of the inflation compared to 70 percent who disapprove even the majority of republicans 53 percent are dissatisfied with the state of the economy since his inauguration in january 2025 disapproval of trump's economic oversight has almost doubled ipso says perhaps the poster child of this grumbling is gas prices which have shot up since trump and israel launched a war against iran in february the national average for a gallon of gas is four dollars and 17 cents compared to three dollars and four cents one year ago diesel has skyrocketed even more jumping from 368 a year ago to six dollars and 29 cents now yeah i'm reminded of the famous ronald reagan quote where he asked voters are you better off than you were four years ago that is what uh voters will kind of go to the polls and they're going to be like what are the polls do you answer that question cost of living and wages in their relation to inflation is probably going to be top of mind even if it's not exactly the the exact data that they're diving into just how it feels to live and exist in this economy right now is going to be on uh on in the back of their heads consumer prices have surged since the war in iran began for the last six months inflation has outpaced wage growth that means that your checks your paychecks that you're getting in is not keeping up with how fast prices are rising which just makes everything feel more expensive so even if you get a raise and your purchasing power is still declining that is going to be something that you feel materially on an everyday basis gas prices obviously are the most physical manifestation of that but just in general wages are losing the battle to inflation yeah i mean on paper this economy seems pretty good we've had pretty solid if slow job market growth it's not as fast as 2024 last year and so far in 2026 they've added about 612,000 jobs by contrast in 2024 they added 1.46 million jobs so we are seeing the job market slow down but at the same time pretty much anyone who wants a job has a job the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in september that's historically low it hasn't been above 4.5 percent for five straight years we just got the third quarter gdp rate numbers last week 3.4 growth in 2026 which was the fastest pace in a year so when you look at that you're saying okay the economy is doing pretty well but then you have to think about inflation just kind of bringing everything down creating a more unaffordable lifestyle for americans mentioned gas prices mentioned broader inflation but also housing is a huge issue president trump came into office wanting to get those yields down this is a big initiative of treasury secretary scott besant brings borrowing costs down across the economy when trump came into office mortgage rates were above seven percent they came down below seven percent to lower six percent but now because of the war and broader uh spike in body yields and the fed raising interest rates they're well above seven percent again so pretty much anything you want to buy is more expensive and especially when compared to your wages which have been going up but not as fast as inflation one thing definitively is better though and that is the stock market the s&p 500 during trump's second term is up 26 yes there's been some massive down swings along the way liberation day the early weeks of the iran war but so far ai spending and tech companies are propping up the market so it's what we've talked about a lot in this show there's essentially two different economic experiences happening in this country at the same time if you own assets like a home where prices have jumped 57 like stocks with s&p 500 is up 26 you're feeling pretty good about life if you are trying to live off your paycheck you're going to have to live off your paycheck and you're going to you don't have assets inflation is eating away at every single one of those checks your wage growth isn't keeping up so definitely two different bifurcated economies and experiences uh heading into these midterms another issue at the center of election day is data centers brad carson the head of the bipartisan non-profit public first action told fast company there's hardly a race in the country right now where data centers aren't playing a role in some form opposition has moved from the local level and zoning fights to the state and national level and that's what we're going to see in the next few weeks as we look at what's going to happen at the national level with 49 ai data center related ballot measures across 13 states up for vote through the end of the year and the general attitude is anti according to the washington post polling two-thirds of americans oppose building new data centers while over half say ai as a whole is bad for society in 20 of the 36 gubernatorial races candidates are calling for a moratorium on data centers wall street will be watching these races most closely because as billions of dollars are poured into ai data centers that money increasingly depends on getting enough regulatory approval to actually build the infrastructure ground zero for the data center debate is ohio with 21 measures up for consideration followed closely by texas where roughly one quarter of projected capacity is set to come online by 2030 neil this is the issue looming large over many elections it's being called the most important chart for ai it's not anthropics revenue growth it's not nvidia's one year stock movement it's not the most important chart for ai it's not the most important chart for ai it's not the probability of who's going to win the governor for Texas race. About one quarter of all U.S. data center capacity that's going to come online by 2030 is in Texas. And right now you have a Democratic challenger, the underdog Regina Hinojosa, who's pledged an immediate data center moratorium. She's currently behind that chart, the most important chart for AI. She's currently behind the incumbent Greg Abbott. But if she does win, then that could put all of that capacity, 13.3 gigawatts of announced projects at risk. And that's why you see people like Jeffries, the investment bank all the way in New York, holding a client call that's specifically focused on political races in Texas. So when you look at the data center issue, it's extremely big at the state and local level. It might not be a huge thing at the federal level yet because President Trump is there and he is supporting data centers. But where the AI trade, the AI build out, everything that's propping up the economy and the stock market could get stopped in his tracks is in these places like Texas, where you must be paying attention to the gubernatorial race. This is just the AI election in general. About 1 in 10 adults say they are using AI chatbots to find election-related information here. And the key thing that they're using for is 76% say they're just asking it where candidates stand on certain issues. So I think that number is going to only rise going forward. So that is one wrinkle to the fact that it's an LLM telling people what to think about a lot of these issues that they are voting on. And then it's also AI is running a lot more election ads than they ever have before. There were 220 AI-generated or AI-enhanced political ads over the last couple of months. That is up from basically zero two years ago. This didn't really exist. But now this is very much a part of how candidates are trying to reach their constituents. So that's fascinating. And then the final force here when it comes to the AI build-out in general is Elon Musk, who obviously has a dog in the fight of, you know, certain AI projects get approved or not. He dropped almost half a billion dollars, $474 million on political contributions since January 1st of 2025. He has given more during these midterms than any donor has ever spent in a single election cycle outside of kind of the Michael Bloomberg's funding their own campaign. And he clearly is betting big on Texas because a lot of his operations are housed there. $212 million has gone towards supporting the Republican Senate nominee, Ken Paxton there. So Elon Musk is absolutely leaving his fingerprint on this election cycle. Another angle for the midterms today, prediction markets. In 2024, prediction markets saw their credibility skyrocket after they showed Trump favored to win the presidency, even as political polls suggested a much tighter race. In the years since, Calci and Polymarket have positioned themselves as better forecasting tools than traditional polling. Calci CEO Tarek Mansour has called these midterms the prediction market because they will be everywhere, including part of mainstream coverage. CNN, CNBC, and Fox have struck data sharing partnerships with Calci, as has Wall Street Journal owner Dow Jones and Substack. There are now 16 times as many midterm markets as there were in 2024, with Polymarket alone having roughly 4,300 markets available, ranging from control of the Senate to tiny local elections. But heading into midterms, a string of spectacular misses has thrown that reputation into question. Election markets, in particular, have shown a much tighter race than ever before. Brazil, Serbia, and Wisconsin have all produced big upsets this year, and races where candidates have traded as high as a 90% favorite. Sure enough, ahead of today, Calci and Polymarket give Democrats a roughly 76% chance of taking the Senate and a more than 90% chance of taking the House. So it's another opportunity to see if the industry can prove its forecasting acumen. Neil, the wisdom of the crowds is on the line once more. Crowds is the key word, because when people try to explain why Calci or Polymarket has seen these huge misses, they talk about the fact that there may be thin trading and that I can put $1,000, $2,000, $3,000 on a particular election and move the needle in a big way for the probability of someone getting elected. I just went to my own house race back in the Massachusetts First District. It's received $7,500 worth of wagers. And then I went to the Michigan Senate race, which is all anyone's talking about. That received $32 million. So yeah, I could put a grand down on the Massachusetts First District race and very much move the probability to the point where, and I don't know anything better than anybody else. So that could, that's one reason why you say, why you hear people say, yeah, prediction markets can get distorted if there is thin trading going on. But for those big guys, I mean, $32 million, that's just crazy. $32 million going into one Senate race that's happening across the country right now. The other problem with prediction markets is that they still rely a lot on polls. They're, they're kind of positioning themselves as a much better alternative to traditional polling, which has media biases or poor demographic data, whatever your criticism of traditional polling is. And yet, if you look at how prediction markets move when a big poll comes out, everyone is reacting to those polls as well. So it's kind of like this Russian nesting doll of where's the information coming from? Is it actually just coming from the exact thing that we say that you can use prediction markets to hedge against? So that is a, another issue. The one thing that mayors do say is that, remember when we say that there's a 10% chance of a candidate winning and a 90% chance of another candidate winning, a 10% chance still happens 10% of the time. It happens one out of every 10 times. So that is what they're saying when these massive upsets have been happening in a few elections recently that, hey, when you have a one in 10 chance, it's going to happen one out of every 10 elections. So it's not necessarily prognosticating. It's just saying, hey, this is the probability of an election. It's just saying, hey, this is the probability of it happening. And sometimes those probabilities come to fruition. Yeah. There was a review of more than 1 million election markets published in the proceedings of the national Academy of sciences this year, pretty prestigious journal. They found that the odds of prediction markets when it came to elections were quote, well calibrated, strong favorites, usually one, but not always. So you can bet that I will be having the needle up from the New York times. I'll be having needles everywhere up. And I, I think I also will be having Kalshi up as well, because it's a good way to gauge what's going on in the races. It's closed out our midterms preview. There's going to be a lot of talk about changes in Washington, DC the next few days, but overshadowing them all may be the fate of foie gras today. DC voters will just say, decide the fate of initiative 86, which would ban restaurants in the district from selling foie gras. It's all anyone can talk about in the city. The ballot measure has racked up more signatures over 45,000 than any other initiative in DC history, even topping the number from the push to legalize cannabis, in 2014 foie gras for the uninitiated or the unwealthy is a centuries old fine dining delicacy from France in which ducks and sometimes geese are force-fed a corn slurry to enlarge their livers about six, 10 times their natural size to create an unusually velvety taste, super expensive and most commonly consumed by the kind of people who eat at restaurants. So dim, you need to use your phone to see the menu. If there is a menu at all, foie gras has long been attacked by animal welfare activists for being particularly cruel to the ducks. After all, it does involve sticking a metal tube down their throat two to three times each day for a couple of weeks. Supporters, which include foie gras purveyors and top chefs say they're being unfairly singled out and the dish is more ethical than general factory farming practices. Toby, it's an all out food fight in the nation's capital. Yeah. Chefs are speaking out against it, even though it is relatively unpopular to do so. One chef and owner, Bart Hutchins, who owns Butterworth says that there are only two commercial foie gras producers in the United States. And so they're not going to be able to sell foie gras in the entire US. So if you ban it in DC, you're actually effectively banning it nationwide because you're cutting off half of the supply within the DC area. He said it's not going to meaningfully hurt his business. Actually, he's I would just sell something else was the quote that he gave out. But his anti ban argument is where does it stop? It's a slippery slope. He's he actually said next could be octopus than pigs because pigs show signs of intelligence, which obviously some people are going to absolutely agree with him. Like, yes, you probably shouldn't eat those animals. But he was saying, like, eventually, can we not even use butter because it comes from high fat animals? That was the general logic behind the anti ban argument. Yeah, there's a lot of places that have banned foie gras already. New York City, Pittsburgh, Portland, California, India, Brazil, Target won't stock it. But it seems to be coming to a head in Washington, DC, which is the third biggest consumer of foie gras in the United States after New York City and Las Vegas. And I think a large reason why this has got a lot of public support. And there's a lot of double negatives here. The ban has gotten a lot of support. Eighty percent in a poll of D.C. residents back in 2023 said they support it is there's this real class element, too. If you plan ban foie gras, it's not like you are taking out a staple of your diet. Ninety nine percent of people, ninety nine point nine percent of people have never had it. A vast majority have probably even never heard of it. So this is a dish that is consumed by the one percent. There are ethical considerations. A lot of pushback saying it's not any less ethical than you just eating chicken because think about their conditions that they're in. But I think that is overshadowing this whole thing and why we've seen more signatures on this ballot proposal than some other big issues is that it's just a class warfare issue and they don't want the rich people doing something that they deem unethical. One thing that I would like to see when Chicago previously banned foie gras, they later repealed the prohibition. But during the ban, chefs were forced to take out a couple of duckies where diners could secretly eat it. Even if we just get a couple of duckies, I think the ban would be worth it. I want to take a quick break and come back with Toby's trends right after this. Did you feel a shift? Yes, I moved everything three centimeters to the left. It's very exciting. 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Terms and conditions apply. This Black Friday, I'm looking out for my number one. Your wife? Nope, me. I got my self-advanced lab testing from Function that comes with insights across the whole body. I'm trying to get back in three-hour marathon shape, so I want to be sure Casa del Toby is running at 100%. They can provide you access to over 160 lab test members can access each year. This Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the real deal is health. Join Function now at functionhealth.com and get your first year of membership for $295, normally $365. And don't wait, this expires at midnight on Cyber Monday. Virginia is for lovers, but not for speeders. The Commonwealth is the first state to start testing out speed limiters installed in cars to crack down on reckless drivers, a trend I want to talk about on today's edition of Toby's Trends. The devices in question are called Intelligent Speed Assistance, ISAs, and have been installed in roughly 100 cars since the program began this summer. An ISA uses GPS and a database of speed, to figure out how fast a car can go on any given road. If you get a little lead-footed, the device doesn't slam on the brakes, but limits the power the engine can produce, preventing any further acceleration. The idea is to rein in the worst offenders. Speeding contributes to more than 10,000 roadway deaths annually, but most of the reckless driving comes from a small subset of drivers. The program in Virginia specifically targets drivers who take things to the extreme, often caught going over 100 miles an hour. Now, instead of using a speed limit, instead of suspending a license, which is often ineffective given 75% of people with suspended licenses drive anyway, ISAs can physically restrict their ability to speed. Neil, feels like a no-brainer. Toss a governor on cars. That makes it harder to put lives in danger. I'm preempting Neil's numbers a bit here, but there are just remarkable stats about how such a small group of super speeders cause disproportionate damage and death on the roadways. DC traffic camera data shows that drivers going at least 30 miles per hour over the speed limit account for less than 1% of speeding violations, but those drivers were involved in about 30% of fatal crashes since 2019. And the data only get crazier from there when you look at New York City. Vehicles with 16 speed camera violations in a year are two times more likely to be involved in a fatal or severe injury crash. Vehicles with more than 20 violations are five times more likely, and vehicles with 30 or more violations are 50 times more likely to be involved in a severe injury crash. So there's just, hey, we just talked about the 1% in the other story. There's a 0.1% who just go 30, 35, 40 miles per hour over the speed limit. And when you're talking about who is causing fatal crashes, it's this small group of people. So that's what these speed limiters aim to do. We just got a loaner car and it won't go above a certain speed limit. And our first thought was, what do you do in an emergency situation? Maybe you need to accelerate beyond the speed limit to hit a gap to avoid a crash. And the ISAs think about that. A driver gets two overrides per trip. Each one of them lasts up to 30 seconds. You have to hit a button and it allows you to go up to five miles an hour above the limit. So they have thought about the safety implications of not being able to go fast enough as well. There are some issues though. This is not a perfect technology. A lot, some of the drivers say that suddenly they would be, the GPS would think they're on a different road and it would slow to 35 miles an hour. On a highway, which is in itself a safety issue. Another driver said the device picked up a speed limit of a cross street while passing through an intersection. The problem is GPS drift. We've all had it on our running watches before. Anytime you rely on GPS, where suddenly it thinks you're on one road when you're on another road. So this technology is still being perfected. Once you iron out the kinks though, writ large, it is a benefit by, you know, making some of these super speeders not be able to do it anymore. Let's sprint to the finish with some final headlines. Apple's new CEO, John Ternus, learned one very important lesson from Tim Cook. When in doubt, talk a lot without saying much. The information's Martin Pierce summed up Apple's first earnings call under Ternus by saying, his words were so full of marketing palaver about Apple products and so lacking in information that Ternus's predecessor, Tim Cook, must have been glowing with pride. Outside the Apple speak, the numbers were solid. Apple reported quarterly revenue of $114 billion, up 12%, but investors weren't too impressed. Shares fell as much as 4.5% after hours after its finance head told investors they were cutting Apple's holiday sales growth forecast from 12% to the 7% to 10% range. The company blamed supply constraints and soaring membership prices, partly driven by the AI boom, but there also might be a demand problem lurking as well. Customers appear to have loaded up on older iPhones ahead of price hikes, which could suppress holiday sales. The one wild card is Apple's new $2,000, plus foldable iPhone Duo, but it's unlikely to be a force right out the gate as it's faced complaints about cracking screens. Neil, Ternus is at the wheel now, but it looks like it could be a bumpy ride to start. It's almost as if he's been hit with a speed limiter, looking for the gas pedal, but it's just not going anywhere. A lot of these business units within Apple are seeing slowing growth or outright declining services, which is the segment that includes things like iCloud subscriptions, Apple TV, App Store, things like that, just rose 9.8% in the last quarter. I remember for years, that was growing double digits. If it wasn't growing at 20%, that it was seen as a bad sign. Now we're into single digit growth. Wearables category declined 7.9% from a year earlier. That's your AirPods of the world. And then that all translates to lower margins because those are two very high margin businesses for Apple. This is what really spooked investors. They predicted gross margins of 45 to 46% in this particular quarter. Analysts wanted 47% or perhaps even 50%. So Apple is really looking to rev up growth, but it's finding it hard to find without just juicing prices, which might run up against what consumers want. But my biggest takeaway from this is palaver. Good word. I never heard of that before. It was so funny. So I was watching the live blogs that all these news outlets do when a big company reports earnings, and everyone's like, God, he's not really saying that much. He's saying what he's supposed to say, but we're not getting much from Ternus right now. So I think that Martin Pierce summed it up very well that there was just a lot of talk with not a lot of substance behind it. All right. Federal authorities are investigating the cause of a devastating plane crash in Florida on Sunday that killed all nine people aboard. A Learjet 60 was flying from Austin, Texas to the Bahamas when a video you might've seen on social media showed it slamming into the ground in Palm Beach at an almost vertical angle. Before it smashed into a road, the plane was plummeting at a rate of more than 32,000 feet per minute, before which the pilot is heard telling air traffic control, we're gonna crash into the ground and, we're out of time. Authorities say that weather conditions are a major focus of the investigation. When the plane was at cruising altitude, a pilot asked for clearance to fly higher when they encountered a storm that generated ice and turbulence. Soon after, the Learjet began its free fall. TMZ reported that the passengers were Texas tech entrepreneur, Adam Robinson, his wife and two kids, their nanny and two friends, while the pilot was 55-year-old Jeff Gregory and the co-pilot, 20-year-old Natalia Filguerias. Yeah, Filguerias was famous locally because she actually, actually earned her pilot's license before her driver's license, just 20 years old, up in the air. As you mentioned, weather is definitely contributing to it. Specifically, icing before the crash, Filguerias reported ice accumulating on the aircraft. She texted her boyfriend, I've got turbulence, I've got ice, and ice is just not good for flight, obviously, because it increases weight, it increases drag, it reduces lift, and then you couple that with the potential storm cell, and those are kind of the makings of why such a tragic accident came to pass. So we'll say the investigation is still preliminary. They haven't made any conclusions or definitive answers about why this plane went down, but yeah, just a harrowing video that you kind of want to scroll past every single time you see it on your timeline, and it was everywhere. Finally, the modern-day Odysseus has returned home. In 1998, following the collapse of his marriage, British Army veteran Carl Bushby set off from southern Chile with the goal of walking around the world all the way back to England. Yesterday, he completed the journey, strolling into his childhood, a town of Hull after walking more than 31,000 miles across four continents, including swims across the English Channel and in the Caspian Sea. Probably shouldn't have taken nearly 30 years, but Bushby suffered numerous delays, including gnarly weather, being imprisoned in Panama, getting held at gunpoint in Mexico, and visa issues in Russia, not to mention the financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. Now 57, Bushby was welcomed by a media circus in his hometown, but mostly wanted to hug his mother, his son, and his 12-year-old granddaughter, who he'd never met. Obviously, he's going to come back with a lot of stories, but maybe my favorite one is that he gained weight while walking across America. He was walking roughly 18 miles a day. He was pushing a 100-pound cart, and yet he says due to the American diet, he gained weight while walking across America. So that was pretty funny. Another one, too, he had been walking for so long that some people who had heard about his story ran into him without recognizing him. In Kazakhstan, he encountered two cyclists. One cyclist said that he'd heard about two men crossing the border. bearing straight during his childhood he didn't know that that was bushby he was talking to the same man who crossed the bearing straight back in the day so this was a crazy story a lot of people online were saying like oh you just abandoned your wife and kid for 28 years just to walk very slowly around the world others are saying what an accomplishment what a journey but i think modern where do you stand i stand somewhere in the middle it feels like it could have gone a little faster he said like bureaucracy was the biggest thing that that uh made him slow down but i don't necessarily endorse you know leaving your your child behind and going on an expedition for 28 years that is all the time we have thanks so much for starting your morning with us and have a wonderful tuesday to share your thoughts on the episode or anything else send an email to morning brew daily at morningbrew.com or dm us on instagram at mb daily show let's roll the credits emily milliron is our supervising producer raymond lu is our senior producer our producer is olivia graham and our associate producer is olivia lake technical direction by nina miller hair and makeup is voting and our show is a production of morning brew great show today neil let's run it back tomorrow business news today it's everywhere and it moves fast but knowing more gives you an edge from your job to your finances to big life decisions it is the news shaping the decisions you make every day so if it matters this much why is it still so hard to keep up with well that's where morning brew's newsletter comes in and we have one goal to make business news easy to follow think of it like a smart friend explain the news after they did all the research for you and the best part our newsletter is completely free so head on over to morningbrew.com slash subscribe and see why over four million people start their day with morning brew