Will Gold Come Back? - Market News 30 April

This is General Advice and my opinions only. So you have these are high risk, past performances are reliable, I'm maybe long short CFDs and stocks mentioned, contact Macinty language that finns some viewers. Leaven operates as corporate authorised representatives 0-0131-8377 under AFSL-548-573. You can find your financial services guide via the Leaven website link in the show notes. Roday, bag out as a stop loss id, is time for a quick bloody update of what the puntings doing. Oh Jesus Christ. Anyway, quick bit of news, quick bit of punting update and a quick new feature from CainTone. Check this out. You don't worry about WAMX anymore, you don't need it, you just need the toad. So all you do, if you want all the data from a tenement, here it is here. Check bloody view tenement and it'll bring up download data and you can download all the drill oils, all the assays, all the surface samples, all the WAMX reports and download CSFs and Bob's bloody uncle CainTone is so much more than a 3D drill oil visualizer. It is bloody WAMX, COMSEC and it is unbelievable. Link in the show notes, get your month for free. You're mad not to try it. Oh my God Jesus wakes me up, it's better than a vape. CainTone is better than a vape. Now that is saying something. Right, let's get into it. Okay, commodities. Oh my God, gold at 45, 44. Fuck me. Oh my God, this is just, I should have shorted gold. It just, the love has gone out of gold. It's still 45, 44 US. It's still over 6,000 bucks an ounce, Aussie. But it's just, it's unbelievable. The Fed hasn't, the Fed held rates last night in the US. Pales not going to be chairman anymore of the Fed, but we still don't know what's happening with the run. Because as you can see, the bloody oil price, Brent Crude is bloody back way up. I've got 120 a barrel here. What have I got over here? Yep, 112 on the IJ one. So for Brent. So it's, oh, it's just bloody, it's not good. Not good. The bloody Iran things just keeps going. Selfers back down to 71. Coppers pulled back a little bit, 586 a pound on or sitting at 108 rare earths back down to 99 70. Nickel. Nickel has been creeping up $8.65. So the flavor's coming out of Indonesia. Nickel a bit and yeah, that is, it's a bit of a quite achiever at the moment. Spodger mean, Spodger means flying. Still at 2600 for Spodger means 6% on the FAB plates. So that is going well. Thermal coal. Still at 13370. So that's still up 20% for the three months. The RANIM just sitting pretty flat 8625 not doing much. So that's what's going on. Major's over not. Only positives of really album also because lithium is in flavor. Lithium is in flavor. Exxon was up to 1/2, but Goldies like Barrick was down to, you're not down to an aft report for Goldine, copper down to an aft. So it's going to be a bit of pain. I reckon on bloody Gold and copper and all that shit today. But yesterday wasn't too bad. It actually was flat went up because it all went down shit loads of day before at the end of trade. US went down. He was pretty flat. So we'll see if we can just get a flat day be nice. Flat, a flat fucking day. Anyway, we're about to find out. So Trump around update. It's fucking stand still really. So obviously he obviously nearly got shot again, but apparently Iran sent a Trump a peace proposal to end the war and open the strait and deal with the nuclear issue afterwards. But Trump wants a nuclear issue dealt with at the outset. This could go on for bloody ages. The strait is still effectively closed and as you can see, Trump's just continuing his usual stuff on true social. Iran can't get their act together. They don't know how to sign a non nuclear deal. They better get smart soon. So he's effectively using the leverage he's got of just blockading the strait. And you've got UAE leaving OPEC. You've got, yeah, so Iran's obviously suffering because they can't get their oil out. So it appears the US are just going to do this until they fricking yield as a country. So yeah, anyway, we'll wait and see, but yeah, all's back up until then for freaking golden, everything. It's going to be bloody a bit negative until something actually results, but that could happen at any moment. That's the thing. That's all I'm not wiggling out probably should be. But an interest rate rise. So many mixed reports of what's going to happen with bloody interest rates because no one fucking knows. But if fuel and that's already high, one point of view is like, is the US going to raise interest rates when fuel prices are already high and put more pressure on the economy? I don't think so. I don't think so. So they're staying flat at the moment because pretty much no one knows what's going on in the world. A line to before I get into the posse update, line to unquartedly out today, current holding. I am conflicted on this, but geez, it's much easier, but in long line town than short because it's going well. So they've ended up with 424 million cash at the quarter end. They've gone up 33 mil quarter on quarter. They did receive additional cash receipts of 64 mil for a shipment completed at the end of March. That was received in April, so that's not included in that. So average realized price, SC6 equivalent, US 1845. So obviously sitting at 2600 at the moment, they've hit their one half million ton annualized underground at run rate in early Q3 and produce 96,000 ton of spot concentrates. So let your recovery averaging 61%. So they'll still chuck in open pit stock, more material through the plant. They did achieve 70% late March with underground ore being three, two thirds of the feed mix. So that was Tony A did say that Q4, what we're going into is when it's going to be primary underground feed. So that was disclosed. The expansion plans underway, which they released yesterday or day before I think. So they're procuring a five and a half megawatt ball mill, heading back into the north with flats, 77 mill to be spent on this expansion plan prior to FID. So four million tons back on the table effectively. And you just look at, as I said, the table quarter to quarter is frickin unbelievable. Average realized price for SC6 equivalent is gone from 985 to 1845, doubled effectively in one quarter. Bit under double. So they're Aussie dollar per dry metrotun sold. That went from 1276 Aussie to 2265 Aussie. Now revenue 130 to 197. And you can see their operating costs have gone up per dry metrotun sold. They did sell a bit less than they produced because you can see the concentrate sales did go down. So that would have attributed to that. They're obviously all underground now. So that's a bit of a driver there, but that will you would anticipate lift a bit. So the concentrate production was down a bit. But as you can see, just on a revenue basis, that the SC6 spot price now is 40% higher at US 2600 a ton. So that 40% higher bit purely just on a sales price. That would have equated to about $80 million extra revenue for what they've sold effectively. So instead of bush maths, but 40% higher price instead of adding 30 odd mill to the balance sheet, they would have added 110. So that's interesting quarter coming up because if this lithium price holds and yeah, she's looking pretty bloody good. So we were waiting. So he bought the lithium price could go down. Oh, fucking no. No, I'm my luck. So maintaining long there. Fund update. So is where I'm at. Oh, there's been a bit of changes. So because I was long everything and I'm like, once the gold put options went to shit and like gold pretty much didn't go either way. So they went to nothing. So I've made a pretty long gold. Still got Phoenix and line down. That is not gold. But I'm like, what the fuck do I hedge and all I'm freaking come up with was I didn't want a hedge gold. Look at this freaking NASDAQ. This group fucking burn me. Look at the wake glitch out there. Like that. The NASDAQ. has just absolutely ripped back to an all time highs bloody on the RS eyes fricking overbought. So that's my short at the moment, just a hedge bloody belongs because I'm like, if gold rebounds or just goes back to 48, 5000 who knows? Like everything I mean is either in my opinion undervalued or a developer or something that hasn't re-rated yet and things are going to rip. So and the way things are going it's like which ones do you fucking short? So that was the decision. So Nasdaq short is on the that side of the exposure and then long breakthrough, breakthroughs taken up 19 and a half on nilly back to neutral there. So I did top up a bit on that at 16.5 cents which proved to be beneficial now at 19 and a half. I'll go through them one by one because breakthrough is North Queensland copper. There's a bit happening. Great and they've just like they've started drilling but they've also the announcement come out that they're selling they've got a non-binding agreement with Boomer the Indonesian mob to sell the Mount Colin accommodation infrastructure. So not not a deal to get rid of the resource just selling the infrastructure to Boomer and Boomer is the Indonesian mob that has just done the deal to buy loyal metals which has a common director with breakthrough as well. So they're the mob that they came over here for coal but they look into getting a copper as well and but they're in that clonkari eyes of reagent. There is plenty of the appenum which is where breakthrough is you've got true North you've got carnaby then you've got Austral resources. So they've got the old they've got the Rocklands Mill that's been a bit of a graveyard that thing but three million ton process and mill are much closer to all those projects than Mount Isar is because Glencore who knows what's happening with Glencore is concentrated in the and the smelter at Mount Isar that's probably going to be bloody soil. Don't know he's going to pick that up. I think the concentrated I think that's six million ton but Austral have got this Rockland thing and they appear to be potentially getting active in that region as well. They've got their the boat lady La Rera off Glencore they've got lady Annie all that lady Annie's producing. I think that's the hate that's the oxide side that's the hate bleach operation but they're refurbished. So pretty much there got a three million ton mill and they need feed and so the likes of carnaby true North breakthrough like in that in that region they're going to need feed from them to feed this sulfide mill near clone carous. So there's plenty happening the Indonesian mobs are getting active so hence that's why bloody I don't know bloody breakthroughs buddy ticked up for me and that's bloody helped the thunder bit back to neutral God if only I freaking didn't buy just before the war but I topped up a bit so I've got the average price down line down line down is going frickin well up 27% in at a dollar 90 up at 243 yesterday and a pretty short light so I do because I paired that with IGA and IGA obviously had the downgrade so I covered the I think I was in IGA at 820 covered the short at 745 it did go down to about 7 that day it went up to 770 I covered it early which was good then back down to 7 so I could have got a better but it sort of crept back up now so I declining grade and everything at green bushes and the underperformance there based on the holy grail of what green bushes used to be. Yes or downgrade as predicted so that worked well so now I'm just long line down because that seems to be just gradually ticking up as I said $2.43 remember they were getting take over beds at 3 bucks and the landscape has significantly changed and all they've got the 300 mil for debt because the LG no it's been converted and they've got 420 mil cash so things are looking on the up there west wath west african resources it's pulled back a bit back to $3.2 so it was going well it's pulled back a lot the becana thing the overhangs been taken away but gold prices buddy pulled back a lot still got high price targets on there it's still classed as one of the cheapest I guess EV per ounce producers but obviously being in becana presents some risk to that stock but the cash they're printing is phenomenal so it's whether it's going to have some sort of re-rate eventually or not now this overhangs been taken away but gold price burned down at 4550 is not helping that. Brightstar still waiting for that to just go up heaps one day because it just won't. Brightstar still sitting at 39 it's friggin they had a good quarter like on the processing side on the last parcel sent to the OPA they've you know they've got got all their funding sorted for the mill you know a couple hundred mil cash but he got the debt in place just waiting on permits I'm sure that's within a month or so permits to actually start pouring concrete at that goldfield's operation and yeah they're going to be creating a 75 000 ounce per annum operation out at the goldfields at Loverton and then hopefully feeding that into a sandstone mineral resource and reserve upgrades so we're like either side of that is not really getting value because they're going to end up with multi million ounces pairing them together so still ticking along don't know if anyone's going to have a tickle at it but I'm unsure about fucking gold at the moment to be honest because if it keeps friggin going down all this stuff just absolutely goes to shit because money's going to fly out of the likes of what I've got here bright star talk, Kaiser Reef, Madalya, New Merchants and likely Waff they're the ones that money flies out of the most when gold price goes down so talk talks pull back a bit 45 cents that's they're still still waiting for a heap of bloody they've they've been fighting coming out effectively where they don't know how they're going if they're going to really capitalize themselves or they you know they're talking about you know they're sitting there with I think a 13 mil in the bank they've got options to convert are they going to get a big funding package in and really amp up this drilling or they're just going to be selective don't know what they're doing with they've got the Canadian asset that's got a bit of nickel in it and then they've got they've got new dawn and penzance on the other side and like the new dawn or all the new dawn tenements that's what all that 85 million performance rights are attached to if they can fuck them off and cancel the performance rights somehow that'll take a big overhang of the stock so forget the share count I think it's 600 odd million shares but there's it's about 15% of it's contained within these performance rights which vest on a change of control so wait and see what the promotional train of Simon Lawson does with talk now that he's non-exact chair and Craig Jones is a is the going to be all the MD and big Monty's there so see what happens there cause of reef at a bit of a bounce yesterday again undervalued after the interview and Brad I was impressed with you know what they've got in place is a minor looks like it's all happening just need some they need some quarterly bloody positive cash flow and Muldon they need to get that rehab done and the drilling done to start which is going to sound like about August we would start hearing results from Kaiser from Muldon drilling but hitting some old stuff there and creating a potential second mining story out at Muldon in addition to Henty is going to be a big catalyst so we're hanging on waiting and seeing new Merchison new Merchison Gold M in NMG impressive cash build 63 mil even at bloody plus 6,000 bucks in ounce there will likely be still printing cash they yes they don't have a mill but they do not need one West Gold need the dirt they're taking over every every quarter and you Merchison are absolutely printing cash so their cash balance like if they have a okay quarter they would likely be at 200 mil cash by the end of Q4 and continuing on beyond that with great stories at Crown Prince East Lydia potential Crown Prince underground so things are going well but they've still gold prices shit itself and they've gone back from $7.05 so sitting pretty flat there medallion oh medallion was I assume they would have been looking at those Mount Holland gold tenements that went to mecha mecha metals mecha metals bloody now in bloody forrestonia absolutely makes no sense synagistic was the only thing it would make sense for is that medallion and you make are using those tenements to try and get in with medallion or merge or or something because you and you look at I'll just show you the share price performance of mekar absolutely bloody yeah she's shit itself back from 30 cents down to 14 sitting at 14 cents so a big lot of selling there yeah it was that was a very bloody very interesting very interesting so medallion probably didn't need it it would have been nice to have but yeah consider him what make a paid for it and yeah so anyway medallion waiting on execution and they took about early all coming out of lounge lizard so we'll wait and see yeah another one on execution but I'm unsure about gold at the moment I'm unsure about gold anyway hanging on hanging on last one phanics bit of a smaller position only about 10k in it so yeah they could be just a bloody long-term story of God on or exposure I was impressed with Johnny's interview I like their long-term vision so might be taking along a wait I can't bloody deploy anything extra anywhere else because I'm all friggin taken up so fund update the number so as I said I put 10 extra in to breakthrough 190 so it's 139 139 so in old money 129 so it is going up it is going up thanks to breakthrough daily move since I last reported up 5% so still down but there is a go a bit of a gold rebrand rebound and a breakthrough going off its head would be sensational so quick look across the screen fucking getting hammered I would imagine let's have a look we've got oh my God new merchants and down 4% yuck medallion down one phanics up a little bit what's lying down doing lying down down 1.6 a wafedown one bros are down one talk bloody flat a yuck yuck across screen bloody cause of rave what's that at down a bit oh everything's down you merchants and down 4% Jesus Christ ah things aren't good things aren't good anyway well non-for-frickin-deal life oh and the Nasdaq started a fucking go up as well oh my God anyway anyway that's what's going on right out God fuck right anyway the only thing that cheese may up is pretty much talking about bloody cantoed thanks to canto for the burn the dodge bonds are god bloody anyway cantoed if you make the market go up that'd be friggin great rod I cheese panas ever go want [Music]