Will cash incentives fix the birth rate?

What you're about to listen to is our daily news podcast, but it is not all the TDA makes TDA sport TDA finance TDA culture and the good newsletter Four free newsletters five minutes each on the one thing you actually want more of the links to sign up to all of them are in the show notes Ready and good morning This is the daily off. This is the daily off. Oh now it makes sense Good morning and welcome to the daily hours. It's Tuesday the 25th of August. I'm Emma Gillespie. I'm Sam Kuzlowski. As birth rates fall all over the world Countries are getting a bit more creative with their policy decisions to ensure future economic stability Last year it was China who pledged to cover out of pocket expenses related to childbirth at the same time as making condoms more expensive While Japan is trying to tackle its record low birth rate through government-funded dating apps allowances and flexible work options One Australian politician has suggested low interest loans for new parents and now Singapore has promised every child born there Will receive almost $70,000 in government support before their 17th birthday in today's deep dive We are going to explore how one country is trying to move the needle on birth rates And what this dilemma means for countries everywhere, including here in Australia And this is a really interesting chat. Normally I think about the cliches of Parents saying that kids cost a lot of money We're going to talk about an example of a country where a kid can actually bring in a bit more money They're bit before we get into this new Singaporean initiative Why don't we talk about the very notion of birth rates itself? Is that just the rate of babies born? Kind of almost so the birth rate It's also referred to as the fertility rate. They're used interchangeably So if you've heard either of those same thing It's talking about the average number of children a woman is expected to have over her lifetime Based on current patterns modeling within a country So think of it as this snapshot of where a population is heading Within the birth rate conversation you'll also hear the phrase replacement rate Now that is the average number of children needed for a society to sustain its population over time The replacement rate around the world is an average of 2.1 children per person Is that replacement rate made on the assumption that there's no migration of people coming into the country? Yep, that's an important point that replacement rate removes migration. So without migration an average of 2.1 Children per woman are needed Australia has not met that rate for about 50 years And our birth rate is expected to fall to an all-time low of 1.4 to in 2026 that's according to the government's Center for Populations latest report So I mean around the world the reasons are aligned this has really been driven by people delaying when they have kids And having fewer children when they get to that stage of their life Is that number mean 1.4 to it's an average So obviously like women aren't out there having one and a half babies But it's an average number of when you look at all of the babies born in a year divided by the number of women who gave birth to them Also divided by the number of women of reproductive age in the country That's how you kind of land on that 1.4 to so on average Australian women throughout their reproductive years are having 1.4 to babies got it and kind of put the number in context for us So if you've just said that Australia's birth rate is declining Why does that matter and what are the implications of fewer births? Yeah, it's really about a bigger economic story than anything else Aging populations which we have here in Australia need more support and when you have a shrinking work base That creates these gaps in a social services kind of setting So we've heard that about 90,000 Australians will turn 18 next year 15 years ago that was closer to 16 or 17,000 Australians So we've got many many more Australians at that retirement age going into aged care who need support Who need a workforce that can take care of them but also a government that can fund Their pensions and their welfare payments. So a shrinking younger population poses problems there There's also an argument that relates to the federal budget Now Dr. Liz Allen is a demographer at the Australian National University She articulated this one much better than I could try to explain when we interviewed her on the podcast little while ago Here is what Dr. Liz Allen told me about this one the government's bottom line in terms of budget Is fed by way of individual income tax in that's largest share So if we want to maintain our living standards and ensure that we've got enough government money to ensure Our country is going well We need an appropriate number of people paying their individual tax It is so interesting to really dive into that intersection of The way that a country works economically and how many babies are being born and look at I guess I can understand if there's more people needing aged care Then my mind went straight away to well then we need more carers But it's actually about stimulating the economic growth In the rest of the professions of society so that there's more money to fund care exactly But you also do need more carers and if you have a smaller or a shrinking workforce Fewer people to do those jobs and so this decline that you're talking about that's not just an Australian Phenomenal right exactly this is a problem that is being felt all over the world now There was United Nations fertility report that was released in 2025 Which found 55% of global territories have a fertility rate below the replacement level of 2.1 Now across Asia it is particularly bad especially in South Korea, Japan and Singapore The parts of Europe have also posted their own record loads two in recent years and that includes Italy and Spain So this is by no means an Australia specific issue. This is a global one And you know what's really interesting about that picture of the world is at the same time I feel like I hear a lot about our rapidly increasing Global population How does that fit in? Well certainly there is that sentiment and we sometimes see A bit of maybe over sensationalized reporting around the birth rate It's often tied in with conversations around immigration as well But annual growth actually peaked in the 60s at 2% for the entire world for the entire world That's now down to less than 1% 0.9% so growth has really slowed so that idea is not actually accurate I suppose Well yeah so if you're looking at the entire human race you see the pattern playing out in Australia And we're going to talk about Singapore and the sake you see that pattern Playing out across the entire globe I want to talk about Singapore now because the reason we're talking about all of this on the podcast today is they've just made a significant announcement to address their falling birth rate Sell me sell me the announcement Well before we get into the announcement let me just set the scene for the state of play in Singapore It's fertility rate fell to a record low 0.87 last year Now the deputy prime minister there announced that in February that's down from 1.24 just a decade ago So Singapore's one of the lowest rates recorded anywhere in the world now to address this We heard from the prime minister Lawrence Wong who unveiled a major new plan as you said Sam He was speaking at Singapore's national day rally So he spoke about all kinds of policy initiatives and plans and projects for the future to Secure Singaporean prosperity but a major centerpiece of that was around the child care stuff So there's a $10,000 baby gift paid in cash in two tranches within the child's first 12 months So what what a brilliant way to enter the world just by being born 10 grand also in the first year There's this thing called a child's development account which receives up to $10,000 in funding Then between ages 1 and 16 there are $32,000 worth of cash credits They're paid out at $2,000 a year between the ages of 1 and 16 Additionally when you turn 17 in Singapore you'll get a $10,000 top up into a post schooling account Now there are a bunch of other grants that relate to savings for health and education costs It should be noted that we're not talking about a bunch of cash just being handed to children A lot of this will either go to the parents or into these savings accounts that will be specifically reserved for use for things like health and education It kind of reminds me of how some of the states and territories during the pandemic They would do those school holiday $50 funds The vouchers we're going to give you a voucher to help with your road tolls or kind of a dedicated spend To your government account that can only be spent on something specific Exactly so the combination of that as well as straight up cash payments to Mum and Dad when the baby is born and on birthdays and things like that. As part of this suite of reforms, we've also got childcare costs in Singapore being brought down. So full day fees for childcare will drop to $150 a month. Not a day. Not a day. Well. An infant care, so that's new born child care basically, it will be capped at $300 a month. Singapore did have an initiative around this in place, but it was means tested. So that will be removed. Anyone will be able to access that cheaper childcare regardless of their income. And the childcare becomes cheap off for everyone overall. Singapore also has paid parental leave. That's up to 30 weeks of government funded parental leave. And the Prime Minister there flagged that that could be extended further. The housing initiatives also going to change income ceilings for subsidised public housing will rise, allowing more first time families a better chance at securing public housing. And Sam, all of this is going to benefit around 610,000 children across Singapore. The changes will start from April 2027. The Prime Minister said ultimately the decision to have children is a deeply personal one. Policies alone cannot make this happen. But what we can do is make it easier for Singaporeans who want children to start and raise a family. Incredible. I think it's worth mentioning here as somebody listening on their way to work thinking this is some crazy benefits. And this must be costing the government a lot. I'm sure it is costing the government a lot. However, you have to remember that the Singaporean economy is incredibly strong. And with a relatively low number of people in the country, I think the average salary per person in Singapore is amongst the highest in the world. And it's almost a bit northern European in the way that their society is run because they're such a surplus of OK. They do have these kind of utopian outcomes sometimes. And the total population in Singapore is just over 6 million. So definitely worth flagging. We're talking about a very small, very wealthy nation. But nonetheless, it's some very brave policy that won't pay off in the short term, really. Exactly. A very interesting one there. Have we seen other countries try this sort of, you know, cash for babies approach? Yeah. Well, Hungary had a similar policy. It gave married women a low interest loan that basically got progressively wiped out the more children they had. Now, birth rates had started rising there when that scheme began, but haven't moved a lot since. So there was a bit of a plateau effect there. Now, in Australia specifically, there's no cash bonus present here right now. But Sam, you will remember in 2004, then Treasurer Peter Costello announced our very own baby bonus. It gave Australians up to $5,000 at birth, a cash payment for parents for every baby they had. Costello famously said, one for your husband and one for your wife and one for the country. Peter Costello made that saying famous when he announced the baby bonus, but I'm just checking this. And I, okay, I was post, it was post a Peter Costello Condit. Bob Hawk was at the cricket in 2012 at 82. And somebody handed him a beer and said, he is one for the country. And I, from memory, I think he had the entire thing in one gulp. Oh, yeah, that's very, in a clip that went viral. And now if you go to the Bob Hawk brewery in Sydney, one for the country is, is placid on the walls. Pull one out. Well, back to the babies. Sorry. She hits like ASM. Any opportunity to talk about Hawke's brewing. Jim Charmers, the Treasurer of the day, has even said himself that Australia does need to explore other ways of growing our population in other words, having more babies. He hasn't gone as far as to endorse the return of a baby bonus, but it's certainly something that is front and center when it comes to the conversation about population. Is it a live political conversation in Australia? I mean, are there people from other parties who are perhaps putting forward their ideas, trying to get this to be a natural policy discussion? Yeah. Well, it was a very live policy pitch about a year ago when the National Senator Matt Canavan pitched this to TDA. We ran this announcement as an exclusive story. Now, Matt Canavan has since gone on to become the leader of the nationals party. But at the time, he put forward this idea of giving first-time parents a $100,000 low interest loan to buy their first home. Right. So you've just had a baby or you're having a baby, here's a hundred grand from the government to buy your first place. The loan would decrease by 30% after a second child and it would be wiped completely after a third. So if you were in a position to guarantee that you could have three babies, you would get a $300,000 towards buying your first property basically. Now, that would apply to any de facto couple, including same-sex couples, could also involve adoption and surrogacy. Wow. But that was just a hypothetical thrown out there. Right. So we had that chat about about a year ago. Is that still on the table like to the national still have that policies part of that platform? Well, the coalition hasn't formally adopted anything. Canavan promised that this would be high on the agenda for him moving forward. But since then, he was elected later of the nuts. The coalition has had a little bit going on the past 12 months. I think it hasn't been as much of a priority message. But Canavan has continued to push a message about family. He's called for this idea of what he dubbed a hyper-Australia, more homes, more manufacturing, more babies. We did reach out to Senator Canavan to see what he thought about this announcement out of Singapore, to see if he was sticking to his guns on the 100k loan. And at the time of recording, we haven't heard back. Okay. So we've got this policy that was floated a year ago. We're not quite sure where it stands today. Do we know if the government who are, of course, in the position to actually change something, have a position on that sort of 100k loan policy? Well, when it was first put forward, Labour dismissed it. We heard from the Minister for Women Katie Gallagher, who called it a 1950s idea. She slammed it, questioned how it would be rolled out. I did reach out to the federal government, specifically Tanya Plybasek, who is the Minister for Social Services. And additionally, at the time of recording, we get to receive a response. I also put it to Mark Butler's team, the Minister for Health, the Department of Health said that's an issue for the Department of Social Services. So I got moved along to Plybasek's team and TBC. The mechanics of government sounds like you're right in the middle of the machine. Right in the middle of the machine. But ultimately Sam, I guess, Singapore has its answer. We've heard about a few other countries and their approach. We will have to wait some time to see if it makes a difference. As you said earlier, this is a really long-term strategy. And it sounds at the moment like Australia kind of remains a bit divided over what to do. Whether a cash incentive will shift the dial meaningfully. But I don't think this one's going away. I mean, the global modeling says that we're going to hit peak population in about 50 or 60 years. And so if you look to what even happens after that, it perhaps is going to get even more pertinent for economies to be able to answer how do we sustainably grow when the world itself would have potentially finished its human growth? Yep. All very big ideas. And as cost of living surges, and it becomes harder and harder for families to afford multiple children. Yeah. That conversation and the question of whether or not you can even have a kid to begin with, it's so so expensive. You can understand why this is such a point of tension in modern society. It'll be very interesting to see if that birth rate does increase in Singapore as authorities are hoping. And thank you so much for taking us through that. Thank you, Sam. Do you have a tidbit for us, a little kind of, you know, baby of the episode? I do have a tidbit to birth for you. And I think in the spirit of the dwindling birth rate, perhaps we're going to see the boom of humanoid robots to fill our workforce and to take our jobs and to clean our homes. Exactly where you're going. And I have some thoughts. Tell me what's doing. Well, the world's humanoid robot games are underway in Beijing, of course. More than 2000 humanoid robots are participating in the five day games. It's now in its second year. Yeah. This is basically all about the big tech robotics firms in China flexing their advancements, showing how far they've come in the past year. We've got 51 events, more than a thousand competitions, including running, table tennis, football, running, important one to address, because the robots have broken records including Usain Bolt's 100 meter sprint world record at the opening day of the humanoid robot games, a robot achieved a result of 9.39 seconds in the 100 meter sprint, beating the human record of 9.58 seconds set by, of course, the Jamaican Bolt in 2009. Firstly, incredible that that Usain Bolt 2009 record has not been broken yet. I mean, it is now 17 years. It's called the better part of two decades. It's nearly two decades since that record was set. And in any sport to have a record for that long is incredible. Here's my controversial take. And I'm sure we're going to get comments from people saying you don't understand how hard this is. Is that it? 9.3 seconds. It's a robot. Is that all you've got? I'm expecting. I'm expecting a five second. I mean, you know, on a liberal interpretation, a car is a robot. Okay, and cars can go 0 to 100 in my free sector. Yeah, it's optical on it. So I It's not all there is there was another record that was broken. Okay, a humanoid robot was able to reach 2.88 meters in the standing high jump Well above the 0.95 meters best result set by a humanoid in last year's first edition of the games Now, I'm telling you that is to answer your question is that all there is the advancements that this technology is seeing Year on year on year They've more than 100 to 200 percent increase their performance between 2025 and 2026 I reckon it won't be too long before we are seeing a humanoid robot do that 100 meter sprint in five seconds Wake me up when it's a five second 100 meter sprint and then and then I'll be impressed by Standards are high here for sound because last key as it should be Thank you, and that is all we've got for you today two humans doing the news We'll be back in your ears with the headlines later today until Then have a beautiful Tuesday My name is Lily Madden and I'm a proud Arranda Bunjlong Kalkarun woman from Gadigal country The daily Oz acknowledges that this podcast is recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people and pays respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander nations. 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