Why US Stocks May ‘Grind Higher’

(gentle music) This is the markets. I'm Mike Washington. Today is Wednesday, August 5th, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equity trading floor, joined by a Shoke Barron, the co-head of global banking and markets of Goldman Sachs. A Shoke? It's great to have you. Yeah, it's good to be here again. I gotta tell you, there's a ton going on right now. I feel like there's a bunch of different ways that we could take this conversation, but I wanna start on AI and momentum. You were on this podcast back in Q4 of 2025. You said that stocks are going higher, and AI specifically was going higher. We just had one of the most violent momentum drawdowns in history last week to a V-shape recovery and tech and S&P sets at all time highs. Do you feel like this is the setup that markets could continue to grind higher on the go-forward or is there a wall of worry that we still have to get over? I think we probably grind higher. I'd say obviously July was a difficult month for markets. I'd say across a bunch of variety of different things. I'd say first, obviously the war re-esculated and that obviously created some trepidation in the market. There was obviously nervousness that the Fed could potentially hike rates and that created an item on the wall of worry. And then of course that kind of related to and kind of somewhat unrelated to, like you said, the violent tech momentum unwind that we saw. And I think sort of all of those things, not just the tech momentum unwind, but I think all of those things kind of hit something like a recovery towards the latter part of July. And so it feels like signals are a little bit clear ahead. I'd also say is clearly as well documented that there was a lot of leverage in the AI trade. And I think a lot of that leverage has been unwound, which leads for a higher quality rally going forward. One feature of 2026 has been that single stock of all relative to index fall is stretched. The spread is very high. What do you make of that? Is that a feature that is going to continue into the end of 2026? Or do you start to see that revert where index fall starts to match what you're seeing on the single stock side? I think we're going to still see high levels of dispersion. I don't know if it's going to be as extreme as what we saw. In fact, what's interesting is given all of the things that transpired in the month of July, the S&P was unchanged. So that gives you a sense of like the stability that you're seeing at the index level, but the variance that you're seeing on the single stock level. I think that's likely to continue because of this AI theme affects companies so differently, whether you're in the supply side of the chain, whether you're a consumer of AI, whether you're a hyper scalar, I think there's so many different facets that affect the perception of your company on a go-forward basis. So that's likely to continue. That being said, I think we've probably seen the extremes of dispersion. You mentioned the Fed. You mentioned some of these cross currents of what the interest rate environment is looking like. We came into the air expecting cuts. It doesn't feel like we're getting at it all. Actually, it's probably going to get a hike by the end of the year. If you look at what the market's pricing in, what do you make of that? What do you make of the interest rate path on the go-forward? I don't think we will see hikes. In the latter part of this year, I think rates are going to stay on hold. I know that's a little bit counter-consensus, or that's not consistent with what you're seeing in market pricing. But my view is that a lot of the things which caused inflation to be elevated or a little bit in the review mirror with respect to tariffs. And also, if you believe that we're on the precipice of getting a deal, certainly around the straight of hormones, I'd also say that while the AI-infra build out can put pressure on resources and stokes some inflation fears over the long run, I do think it's once the Infra is built, it's fairly disinflationary. I want to double click on that AI-infra that you just mentioned in particular to credit, if you put your credit lines on. As hyper-scalers companies are having to tap into debt markets to now finance some of these AI investments, are you surprised that credit spreads have remained tight in light of that? And then to a second point, you don't expect great hikes this year. Do you think that that actually presents a really constructive backdrop for credit? I'm fairly constructive on credit. That being said, we're seeing a lot of supply. And I think with that supply, there needs to be a little bit more of a risk premium or a little bit more of a concession. I think you're seeing that. I think part of the reason why credit spreads are not moving out wildly is the actual underlying phenomenal economy has proved itself incredibly resilient despite some of these exogenous shocks. And so if you think the exogenous shocks are going away and you still have the resilience of the economy, I think you can still say that you're sort of realized expectation of default remains fairly low. On the currency side, there was some yen intervention last week to stabilize Asian markets. How do you factor the risk that is posed if the yen destabilizes in the way that potentially people are starting to fear? Coming out of the pandemic and certainly over the course of the last three or four years, you've seen inflation all around the globe running above stated central bank targets. I think you've seen normalization in the US. You've seen normalization in Europe, whether that be in Eurozone or in the UK. And you haven't seen meaningful normalization in Japan. And that's the reason why the yen is trading weak. I don't really believe in intervention. I don't think it works over the longer run. I think ultimately to see stabilization in the end, the bank of Japan is going to have to normalize rates properly. That makes a ton of sense. We've talked currencies. We've talked credit. We've talked equities, rates. If you had to package it up into one trade right now, what's the trade? Well, I think there are a couple of different things. I think one, I think energy is going to go back down. I think oil settles back down well below $70 a barrel, maybe even lower. You know, once we get towards the latter part of the year, I think that makes me very constructive on front end yields in the US. I think if you look at hikes priced in, I think that's fairly attractive. And like I said before, I think that leads for a backdrop in which sort of the overall market is going to really participate in both the productivity gains from AI, but also a resilient economy. Which I also think underscores, you're probably broader thesis that markets are headed higher. There's a really constructive backdrop. Growth is strong. You just look at this earnings period. And we should continue to grind hiring to year. I'd say, stay invested. Stay invested. Which would your thesis in Q4 and your right? Yes, stay invested. OK, Shoke, what are you watching moving forward? We have a jobs report, which I want to pay a lot of attention to. And of course, we get more readings on inflation. Those are the two pieces of the puzzle that we don't have. And so we'll be paying close attention to that. Awesome. Shoke is always great to have you here. Thank you. And that does it for this week's episode of the markets. I'm Mike Washington. Thanks for listening. [MUSIC PLAYING] The opinions of you is expressed here in a res of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Copyright 2026, Goldman Sachs, all rights reserved.