The podcast episode analyzes AFL team performance using the Lab Index, highlighting major movers from the weekend. Carlton’s drop to 15th is excused as a “mulligan” due to wet conditions and Hawthorn’s dominance in turnover scoring. Geelong’s deep dive reveals their struggles are offensive, not defensive; despite maintaining strong defensive metrics (top 5 in intercepts and turnover scores), their scoring efficiency has declined sharply. Jeremy Cameron’s shoulder injury is critical, as Geelong relies on his forward presence, though coach Chris Scott remains calm due to solid structural foundations. Collingwood’s defense is praised for its resilience: they allow many inside 50s (15th) but rank top 4 in points conceded, thanks to pressure and intercept marking. This high-wire act relies on key defenders like Maynard and Frampton. The episode explores the growing importance of goals per inside 50 as a winning stat, shifting focus from territory to entry quality. The upcoming Carlton-Collingwood clash is previewed as a battle between Carlton’s contested ball strength and Collingwood’s scoring prevention, with playoff implications for both teams. Overall, the analysis underscores how modern AFL success hinges on efficiency in attack and defensive grit under pressure.
Got the ball played now on their terms. They're admittedly their ball move is pretty good in the first half. They were able to control the tempo, but then they start losing contest. They get like pressure. They can't get hold of the ball. And they just did absolutely fucking shit show. Welcome back to In the Lab, fueled by Gatorade. As always, big thank you to them for their support over the early phases of this podcast. Absolutely loving my time doing this. So thank you to them and thank you to all of you guys for listening. It's been a great start to what I hope I have good big plans for moving forward. So we're just going to roll into what we're doing today. We've got the lab index as we do every week and who rises, who falls and explain the reasons around that for this week. We're going to deep dive gelong. We're going to deep dive collingwood. So if you're a fan of those two sides, make sure you're listening in and in depth. And send me some messages. What do you think? What do you think about your team? We can move forward into next weeks. Make sure you jump on and let me know who I should deep dive next and what you want to explain. We're going to go into the start of the week, which is effective in effectiveness inside 50 specifically around the goals per inside 50. If you've listened to the first few episodes, goals per inside 50, one of the driving stats in terms of winning this year compared to previous years. So we'll explore the why in behind that. And then we're into the Gatorade Mailbag section, which there's a couple of questions from from listeners ones around the handball game in the NFL and ones around how important sports are. So we explored both of those topics and we'll roll through them. But as we always do, we always start with the lab index. And thanks everyone for the messages on on socials. Apologies for no song. Yes, that I have already been. I've really been hit up about my lack of ability on social media. So I'm getting there. But the changes this week. So there's obviously a huge round of football on the weekend and some big results. Fremantle holding top spot, being Sydney, who are second on the on the list. They still haven't moved by 38. So that's still the two best profiles across the league across those stats. Carlton this week's the biggest faller. Not surprising to be honest because obviously wet game of 40 got got absolutely flogged really when it comes down to it. Hawthorne far too strong in the wet. Far too strong off turnover and far too strong at stopping Carlton's ball movement. We're one of the keys. One of the keys stores in the latter is chain to score when you got 5.9% for the blues. It's always going to drop a fair bit. So they've they dropped from 13th to 15th. I wouldn't say they've undone all their work over the over the last few months. I'm going to unprepared to give them a mulligan and you can get at me for being a Carlton supporter and a calm person. I'm having lost confidence in what they're doing. I just think that outclass and outplayed by a really professional outfit in Hawthorne, especially in how well Hawthorne were able to adapt to the conditions, whether it was where to when it started to get dry. Hawthorne kicking 69 of their 103 points off to Carlton turnovers. So a massive week for Hawthorne and and stamping their premiership credentials. So in the long, they're probably one of the biggest slips for the weekend. They've gone from 3rd to 5th. Four losses out of 5. We're going to deep dive. I've said before my original thought process around why Jolong was going backwards is around their defense, but we've explored all the numbers that sit in the background and it's actually an offensive issue, which makes the Jeremy Cameron injury. Well, injury the last few weeks and then the injury now moving forward. I got a lot of question marks about Jolong and I think the listeners and a lot of people that I mean, running into me have got the same concern. So we'll dive into that a bit later. Gold Coast dropped again. Same story about Gold Coast and we explored it on Ep 1. I think it was around their defense. Their points conceded off the back of a huge score against in Adelaide 128. Drop their points conceded from 10th to 15th. So they're going down the ladder and the index at the same rate. Huge concerns on Gold Coast. A bit of a task for Dimah Hardwick and listening to his comments about the seasons done. I found very interesting. More for what that means to the players and the players mentality and the psychology in the background. It was a huge admission and whether who knows whether it's trying to take pressure off or try and get the club to perform or get into the psychology of the players to try and get some determination to fight out the year. I'm not sure. It seemed like a admission admission of what's going on in Dimah's head in terms of trying to try to solve the issues that have been there for the whole year and I feel like he's almost out of ideas of what to do. But I think it will this year will be great for Gold Coast moving forward, but they're sliding further down the index as I said. The pies the other deep dive for tonight. Just consistently good over the last little while with deep diving them today, but it's around their defense. They get a lot of inside 50s against and this kind of comes down to the grit and determination of that group and you can see it in their passion in the way they play. Their ability just not get scored again is outstanding and we'll roll through that today. The risers. Hawthorne come up to third. Obviously off of off a big win in terms of that one against Carlton Brisbane up to fourth. Of a big win against essence and almost in cruise control after half time. Melbourne up to seventh. They're starting to match what what where they are on the ladder and the index and we spoke about a few weeks ago about a big win against Richmond on the weekend. St. Kiela reased a touch, but not too much and the unmoved which I've spoken about a few times and I will get into the Western Bulldogs because I know I get a lot of questions, but it was a choice between Jalong and the dogs this week and I chose Jalong. But they're just sitting 14th on the index. Biggest gap between actual ladder and performance with the dogs. I had a listener message me on socials today about their draw. They have played the most hard teams in the competition in terms of the top six and they played the bottom the least. So will their numbers even out over the next little stretch as they play some of the other teams. But there's a bit of a question mark around their defense and up been down this path before around around their their keybacks and their ability to defend and work the ball out their back half and their reliance on their midfield. So they're actually going to be in one of tonight's mail back section. So we'll roll through that. But you can have a look at the index message me your thoughts your feedback. I've had to explain a few people around the stats. If you want to hear them again, I can roll through them again, but they are an episode two. Otherwise, I'll pop them up on socials if we desperately need them, but we should be getting it as we go. Deep dive number one, we're into Jolong. As I said, the question that came to my head when when watching them and maybe part of it was just the last quarter against the Giants and how poor defensively they were in that quarter. I started to think to myself, is is there issues defensively? Is have they just dropped the ball on their defensive side of the game? The numbers don't say that which surprised me somewhat. They pointed a different direction. They pointed into the offensive side of the game, but we'll get through it. They've lost four or five, four of their last five. But ultimately, they played a lot of good teams for that period of time, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They played the number one at offense in Brisbane, number three in three manual. And they're averaging across those five games only scored against 88 points. If you ask most teams, if you're only getting scored 88 points, when I was playing at Calmys to have a number around 80. If you keep teams under 80, you generally have a good chance of winning as a football. They're not too far above that. And you take out the Brisbane blowout where they had 123 at home. And that was as much Brisbane's dominance and how good a form there in as it was Jolong's defense. But the other games I've had 75 scored against 60, 99 and 86. You look at the numbers that sit in behind that. And these are probably the ones that surprise me the most. Over the last five in terms of their offensive side of the game is this. Over the last five, they're scoring as dropped from 102 to 89. Their goals per inside 50 has dropped from 25.4% to 22.3%. So a material drop off in terms of their effectiveness in the four and a half. They're getting it inside 50 just as often. So they're getting basically the same amount of inside 50s. They're winning more contested ball. So they're getting it inside 50 and they're playing the ball in their half. Which when you think about Jolong's identity, their identity is their four and a half team. They're quite good at winning and abouts. They get it inside 50. Then their intercept game is really, really strong. So they keep it inside 50. But at the moment they just can't kick a score when they get in there. And you would see, you would see this and everyone around the league has been talking about this for about a month in terms of the form of Jeremy Cameron. Jeremy Cameron is a hugely important part to Jolong and ultimately he would be in any team and every key forward is a huge part where this is sort of developed over the last five weeks is has his arm really been impacting him as much. And you can take this and laugh about it, but he gets it gets door stop everyone's been asking about it for months gets door stopped after his obviously broken his AC joint by Cameron at the airport or at the scans. the cameraman, I'll see you're gonna come back and he goes all it's gonna be pretty
hard to play with two cooked up. So there's an admission that his arm was actually not in a great shape. Whether he's taken the piss with it or not, we don't know. But ultimately, him coming out for me is the biggest issue for Jolong. Because as I said, their defense rocks all of it. They're still the same defensive structure. They're still, as I said, intercepting just as much. They're still intercept marking just as much. They're inside 50s just as much. But if you don't have the strength in that forward line or the targets to get it done, I really struggled to see how they will win the flag without him, which then puts a lot of pressure on him having to come back. I'm not an expert in AC joins, but I don't think it's possible to get back, but then I read something other day that could be back in four to six weeks. So we'll wait and see. But ultimately, the bigger picture, they're defense and we're going to roll into this at this. This is one of the questions at the end in the game. So I'll double down on it a bit later. But they're the healthiest defense in the league and still are, which for me, surprise me. Their foundations off territory, they've got a plus seven inside 50 differential, which is a big number. You get in seven more than every team. They win their fourth percent amounts differential. So you're getting it inside 50. Fools their game of front half. Their third for intercepts, fourth for intercept marks, and their fifth for turnover scores. So in terms of a profile of the modern game, they've still got it. Their question for me is the reliance is now off Cameron, because he won't be there. So who's going to stand up? Niels having one of the he's having his best year is his career. But there's there's now going to be a real reliance on him to be the guy is now going to get the best defender in the league every week. He's going to have more focus on him as a player. So then you've got the guys that sit around him. Brad close and grindmires to hugely important parts of Jolong for their premiership credentials or finals aspirin. They're they're the guys that create. They're the guys that get up and back. They've got good skills inside 50. They hit targets inside 50s, which results in scores. So there's going to be a huge reliance on how well they can play. Then there's the secondary side of this is who steps up from the other side. You've got Jack Henry, Jack Martin, that are going to be hugely important. Oli Henry becomes now hugely important. There are reliance on those guys to be able to fuel their game. Dangerfield probably plays mostly forward now to be that target. It just shifts a few things. I'm not I'm not writing them off completely. I still think they're a really good side and they're built off really good foundations. But I think it's going to be really really hard to beat the best sides with without Jeremy Cameron. The bit that I was really interested in and this is off the numbers. This is to speaking to listen to the media, especially around Chris Scott. Chris Scott doesn't seem overly alarmed about the situation. That's probably fair. If you've gone for all the numbers I've just spoken about, they're probably looking a lot of the stuff in the background. They're looking at their game and they're thinking, "We're in a pretty good shape in terms of the way we play football." So you can understand that there's not a lot of panic yet. If they get if their defense slips, things could get ugly because their offense is slipped significantly and their defense is now holding them together. If that intercept game or their clearance game dries up a little bit, then that's when that's when the alarm bells might start ringing in Chris Scott's coaching box. But ultimately at the moment, I'm not in this might annoy people. I'm not writing them off completely, just yet. I think that they've they've still got enough in their profile that suggests that they'll be a really good side in the back end of the year. They haven't lost against the best sides by very much recently. I know they've lost, but they haven't been blowing out the water other than the Brisbane game. So it's a watch. It's how they're going to look, how creative can they get in the fall-half? Well, Jeremy Cameron's not there, but I'm not writing them off just yet. We'll jump into Coyle Wood. Another fascinating team for me and a huge game this week against the Blues. For me, they're they're profile doesn't make much sense in how good they are, but it speaks to the brilliance of some of their players, especially their back half, their back half and ability to defend win one-on-ones, intercept the ball, be desperate, play with grit. I have a lot of admiration for the players down there. But as I said at the start of the episode, they're actually the opposite of Frio. Frio tries to strangle you and not give you enough entries and we spoke and I spoke about how to beat Frio. You kind of have to overwhelm them with entries. Coyle Wood of the opposite. Coyle Wood can see the territory. They can see the inside 50s. They get beaten at contested possessions and then they just don't get scored against. So if I go to their numbers, they're 15th for opponents inside 50s. So they get in the ball on their backline a lot. They get belted in the contest. They're 17th for contestable to differential and they're still run at top 4 defense. That's so impressive. And I can't speak to it. I'm having played in the backline when you're getting overwhelmed with territory and inside 50s week on week. The damn wall breaks at some point and I'm waiting for it to break for Colin Wood and it's just not. They come to eighth from the index this week and the ladders agreeing exactly where the index is sitting. As I said, they're fourth against for points considered, which is just so impressive and I can't say that enough. The number one at opponents scoring shots per inside 50. So for being, what was it? It's 15th for inside 50s. The number one for stopping attention from scoring. With the amount of entries you get, you'd think that that would be so much higher than what it is. Their third for Oppo goals per inside 50, which is in the index. That's a huge part of what happens. How they do it and this is built into the numbers, but it's the eye test as well. Their pressure, and if you speak, if you listen to anyone speak from Colin Wood, they're most important part of their game that they bang on about and they drive and it's part of their culture is about pressure. What pressure does, and we've explored this a couple of episodes. Pressure and tackles fuel the intercept game, which their third for intercept marks as I spoke about before. Their ability to win the ball back and then score off the back of it. That's their game. They put a heap of pressure on. They have great interceptors in the back half. They've got, then got good ball users that used the ball and they and they used it off that. As I said, we've spoke about with Frio to deny the entry. Colin Wood denied the conversion. The caveat on that, which I spoke about at the start, it's a high-wire act. It's living incredibly dangerously. If I have a preferred method of what I'd want to do, I'd want to be in the Frio camp. I'd want to be denying the entries. Relying on the brilliance of some of your players down there, you get a few big injuries to I'm talking Maynard, Frampton, Jeremy Howell. If you start missing too many of those guys that really tie it all together, it's dangerous. But I've been saying it's dangerous all the year and they keep just, they keep proving that they can do it, which is just incredibly impressive. If we're going off this week, Carlton's weakness, effectiveness inside 50. So the expectation for me on Saturday night is Carlton contested ball base, poor effectiveness inside 50. Colin would struggle in the contested possession game, but a brilliant at stopping goals. There's a likelihood that Carlton play this game in their forward half, win the contest, get it inside 50 and it's going to be all built off, how well they can go inside 50 or the reverse, how well can Colin would stop it and then try and turn it and play the turn over game. It's a match made for a really impressive and interesting game of football, which way it goes, I wouldn't have a clue. If it's going off numbers, Colin would have just going to stop Carlton from scoring. And that's a frustration of a Blues fan, we're having looked at the numbers. What Colin would have done previously is they've been quite good at limiting Carlton's strength of inside the contest. So that's a watch this week and for all the Carlton and Colin would fans this week, massive game of football seasons are largely on the lines, on the line for both clubs in terms of the wild card. So looking forward to that one. While we're on effectiveness inside 50, so leads in perfectly here. Goals per inside 50, this is where the games shifted. Goals per inside 50, it's link to winning. Has changed from, I talk about the correlation stats, but the correlation to winning, as I said, one is you're winning all the time, zero, you're not winning at all. So goals per inside 50 in 2022 was at 0.49. This year, it's gone to 0.87 and it's largely gone up every year. Territory on the other hand, in terms of inside 50s has gone the other way. In 2020, it was 0.97. It's now 0.88. So it's dropped. It hasn't dropped massively, but it's still a big part of the game, but it's dropped a little bit. So where the games shifted? The game shifted in quality of entries. So your ability to score effectively going inside 50, and there's a lot of things that sit in the background of what helps that. But
Your ball movement to get quality entries, get to quality 1v1s. No longer is it just a bomb away and just overwhelmed with territory league. That's what it was when it was 22-23 around pressure contest, get it in, keep it in there, forward half, everyone's chasing forward half turnovers to keep the ball in. It's gone away from that a bit. It's gone into a bit more how good of entries you can get. You can have less of them but have good quality ones where you're hitting targets and getting marks inside 50. And that's more important. If you look at the two teams that are the best in this and the league, Brisbane first, the 26.9% and three men are second at 26.5%. They only have the six-month territory. So they don't actually get in there the most. And maybe, and part of this is if you score effectively when you go in there, you don't actually play that front half game because it goes back to a cent of bounce. So teams that go in and out all the time will be quite high up in the territory but their effectiveness is quite low. Sydney a third, they're at 26%, but their number one for territories. In terms of the overall profile, they get it in there and they score or they get in there, keep it in there and then score off the back of that. So they're getting on both sides of the game. The teams that are overachieving in this space in terms of effectiveness, North Melbourne a 15th for territory but 10th for conversion. So they convert when they go in there but they don't win the territory battle. Adelaide the same. They're 11th for territory, 4th for conversion. So if you look at the top four in terms of conversion rate, Brisbane, Freeman or Sydney and Adelaide, you can see where I'm going with this. Four of the top six sides and your 4.5 effectiveness, which is why the conversation around Adelaide around Jalong is becoming more potent is there's alarm bells for Jalong. The other four teams, quality entries they get, good scores, they've got really dangerous forward lines, all of them and can kick a score. Off the back of that, and we just spoke about it, defensive mirror of this is Cullenwood. So the ability to stop you. If you're going at your effectiveness inside 50, is a hugely important part of winning games at football. Cullenwood the best at denying that. So the reversal of it is they're doing the good side on the other way. Is it the right stat? For large parts of my career, we always use the score per entry percentage as your marker of success. Where the goals per inside 50 becomes more important, because it actually takes into account one accuracy and then quality. That's the big part of it. And what drives the quality? I said I'd get to these at the start of this conversation. Kicks inside 50 retention, so hitting a target correlates with the 0.83, and marks per inside 50 are 0.69, and 4.5 ground balls is 0.55. So hitting a target and taking a mark are the two driving parts of it. If the other team is able to spoil and get the ball to ground, if you can win that ground ball inside your 4.50, that's a hugely, that's a huge driver towards scoring success. As I said, the teams that have dominated the moment, Brisbane, Freemano, Sydney and Adelaide in terms of their effectiveness, down the other end of the other end is North Melbourne, Cullenwood, Port and Richmond. And you look at their goals per inside 50, it just goes down. So North sitting at 24.5%, so it has them at 10th. Cullenwood, 23.3%, 13th. So they're, as I said, they're great on the defensive end, largely struggle, or mid table on the offensive end. Port Adelaide, I've spoken about their defense for a lot this year. They're offense in terms of goals per inside 50 is 22.2%, which is 15th, and then Richmond, who are largely across the board, 18th in most stats are at 20%. So that's the bottom marker. As I said, what underpins, and I know everyone likes my catchphrase and words that I keep using, but what underpins it, the delivery quality, so retention, that goes at 8.3, score shots per inside 50, which is less than the goals per inside 50 is at 0.77. Marks inside 50 is 0.69, and accuracy at 0.69, forward half ground ball is at 0.55. But ultimately the best stat that is being used in our index at the moment is the goals per inside 50, which is at 0.87 correlation, which is a top three stat that we use, so hugely important. We jump into the mailbag, so this is brought to you by Gatorade, as always, two great questions flying in. And I want to thank everyone again for all of the questions you guys have asked. They've been brilliant. But this one's from Jaden G. Why are teams handling so much the last couple of years? It's become a go-to move to get it forward. And it's maddening watching them handball into turnovers. Would they be better off just bombing it long? To start the question, Jaden's eye is telling you the right thing. Okay, handball is around six year high at the moment. They're 42% of disposals. They're up to 155. And this doesn't sound like much, but it's gone from 147 in 2021. 255. The handball to kick ratio has gone from 0.68 to 0.72. So teams are just handballing ball. That's part of the game. And I'll start to explain why. Who handball is the most? Sydney, 46% of the time, JWS, 45% of the time, Gold Coast, 44% of the time. So they're the ones that are handballing a lot. The least handball heavy, and wouldn't surprise you, Brisbane, 35% of the time, largely kick mark game they have for years. Put Adelaide and Adelaide to very defensive sides. Also, two teams are playing the skinny ground. So it's harder to handball. You often kick too long contests a lot at the skinny ground. There's a few things that sit in between this handball game. It doesn't actually help winning. So the numbers don't suggest that it actually helps winning. It's actually a negative 0.6% for handball rate and territory's negative 0.19. So it's not actually helping you win games of football. Where it helps, and this is the this is the eye test as much as as the numbers. But we're just spoken about goals per inside 50 and we spoke about the importance of getting quality entries. Where handballes assist? Is your handball extra to get quality entries? You can handball to get out of pressure where players are highly skilled these days and you can get a better entry inside 50. It also allows you to break through zone. So it allows you to get further into their zone and access your 1v1s. If you take an example like Sydney, who everyone talks about their forward handball. So handballing around contests is to be able to get hands and they handball back or sideways. But ideally they're getting someone out the front door of the stoppage or the contest. The reason why they do that is because they make space to be able to run at their forward half and make really awkward decisions for the pressing players in between it. It also accesses dangerous 1v1s. So from a goal's per inside 50, they're getting better entries. So that's why teams are handballing. The kick it long straight out of contests can fuel other teams intercept games and turn over games, which ultimately is the modern game of football and teams that can intercept with think it's your long teams that can intercept and and score off turnover. That's their game. So you're trying to limit that part of it and you're trying to optimize your goals per inside 50. So I know it's frustrating watching when teams overhandball and some of the midfielder's I've played against have always hated coaches trying to tell them to not handball the ball and kick from stoppage. There's a few things that sort of you can dispute on this level. Respecting pressure. When a team's got a lot of pressure or early in games of football, sometimes it is better to kick in those moments because ultimately if you handball back and or put your teammate under pressure, that fuels the pressure and turn over game in itself. So sometimes it is better getting it out of there. The conditions. We just watched the Kaltan and Hawthorne game on the weekend, pouring down rain. The ability to be able to adjust, place straight line, kick the ball out of there, get territory. That becomes hugely important, especially this time of year because even dry games are the MCJ at the moment are wet games. The bit where you can get yourself into trouble is a lot of coaches these days are don't handball backwards. The reason behind that because you refer pressure backwards because most teams are pressing. So if you handball backwards too often or too many times it just invites more pressure. So the handball back is to go forward. So your ability to handball back then go laterally or go forward which you look at a team like Sydney I said before. That's what makes them effective. You look at a team like North for large parts of this year. They just handball too often around the contest. One, it fuels the pressure around there that they end up hacking it then they're disconnected on defense. So that's the example of that side. But ultimately as I said before the reason why teams are handling more is to pull up the numbers of defense and expose one of the ones or better looks on the offensive end. Thanks very much Jayden for the question. Second question is from Angus and he's a defender. He said love the first step. So thank you mate. As a defender myself is there any correlation between a team's ladder position and the amount of sports per game? Straighter answer is no. If you're spoiling you're actually losing games of football at a point negative point three six percent. Negative point thirty six percent sorry I'm stuffing up my numbers here. If you're out spoiling your opponent you're still not winning it's a negative point zero four. So punching predicts nothing. If anything a spoil is when you're reactive or under siege or you can't win your one v ones or you can't intercept the ball. So you spoil more when the ball's coming inside 50 more often. The tell and that will chuck up the defensive health index next to me which I've ranked across a table of your defense.
defensive one on one loss number, the intercept mark number, your intercepts and your points against. So it gives a health index across the table. At the top, and you can see it next to me, Jolong, Freemantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide. You look at those teams, they're all right up at the top and at the latter. Not surprising. Large parts, most of them are under the average, one V1 loss percentage. Sydney is the only one that's just above. They intercept well, the better intercept teams in the comp and obviously don't get scored against. The teams that are next, which are probably the teams that we've spoken about a fair bit from a defensive side of the game, Carlton, Colin, the poor Adelaide, putting together some pretty solid defensive numbers across the year. They're sitting in that 6-7-8 spot. Teams that are interesting and probably down the bottom end of the ladder from a defensive point of view. I didn't pick and killed. I thought they'd be higher and maybe I watched their key defenders and how well they intercept and think that that's their. They're how well they play, but obviously the numbers in the background are not as high there at 12th and 13th. I'm sorry, Brisbane's at 12th, which you've seen that the whole year. We've had plenty against their defense. Ultimately, their back half loses one V1s, but they intercept the most. So they're going further intercept marks. They're trying to fuel their turnover game. They're less about the loss, percentage, and trying to just make sure they don't lose contest as they are to. We want to try and win it and fuel our game off the back of it. It can be dangerous, but I'm not going to argue with how well they're going in their numbers for the year. The one I was just about to talk about, the dogs. They're second-last on this. So they're below Richmond on the defensive health index. So they lose the most one V1s. They have the lowest intercept marking number. They're nearly five below on intercepts and nearly 90 points scored against a game. The dogs, interestingly, spoil the most in the league. So they lose a third of their one V1s and they take the fewest intercept marks and they spoil the most. That's a team under siege. And it's a team that can't win their back half aerial contest. And this is not new information. I've said this a few times. The importance of them fixing that over the offseason is the most important part of their list build. So they need someone that can help them win in this part of the game. Otherwise, they're just not going to be able to. I can't see them becoming a true premiership threat until they have a healthier back six in terms of tools specifically, but even their ball moon off the back of that. I didn't think that it would be at 17th. I find it hard to believe that they sit below Richmond in this number, but that's what the numbers say. But as I said, ultimately, the question at the start from Angus and this is my brain just pulling it. I wonder what it looks like if I add in some more stats and look at the defense more broadly. But from what Angus was saying, spoils, you don't want your team spoiling that much. You want your team trying to win the ball back. You want them intercepting the ball. Yes, not losing one V1s, which ultimately you can spoil. But if you get beaten at the ground level, that can impact your loss percentage. But if you're spoiling too much, you're leaving it in the hands of the other team in terms of whether they can win that contest in a secondary degree versus intercepting the ball. They can't. Dogs lead in spoils, but ranks second last in defensive health. Part of. And we will explore the dogs at some point. It's part of the reason why their numbers don't stack up on the lab index. But that is all for today. I hope you like the episode. Please fight through some more questions. We'll keep getting to them and we'll keep pulling at those threads next week. We'll deep dive a couple of teams. Dogs are on the list at the moment. So we'll see whether anything interesting happens across the weekend to talk about other teams. But appreciate you jumping on, listening, interacting with me on socials or whatever, loving it. I'm enjoying doing the pod. So I hope you guys are too. So I'll see you next week.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast (In the Lab) discusses the weekly Lab Index ranking AFL teams based on performance stats, focusing on risers and fallers.
Carlton fell from 13th to 15th due to a poor wet-weather game against Hawthorn, who excelled at turnover scoring (69 of 103 points from Carlton turnovers).
Geelong’s recent slide (4 losses in 5) is attributed to offensive issues, not defense; their scoring dropped from 102 to 89 points per game, and goals per inside 50 fell from 25.4% to 22.3%.
Jeremy Cameron’s AC joint injury is a major concern for Geelong, as his absence puts pressure on other forwards like Tom Hawkins, Brad Close, and Gryan Miers.
Collingwood’s defense is impressive despite allowing many inside 50s (15th in opponents’ inside 50s), ranking top 4 in points conceded due to pressure and intercept marks.
The key stat trend is goals per inside 50, with correlation to winning rising from 0.49 in 2022 to 0.87 in 2023, emphasizing quality entries over territory.
Upcoming game between Carlton and Collingwood features contrasting styles
Summary:
The podcast episode analyzes AFL team performance using the Lab Index, highlighting major movers from the weekend. Carlton’s drop to 15th is excused as a “mulligan” due to wet conditions and Hawthorn’s dominance in turnover scoring. Geelong’s deep dive reveals their struggles are offensive, not defensive; despite maintaining strong defensive metrics (top 5 in intercepts and turnover scores), their scoring efficiency has declined sharply.
Jeremy Cameron’s shoulder injury is critical, as Geelong relies on his forward presence, though coach Chris Scott remains calm due to solid structural foundations. Collingwood’s defense is praised for its resilience: they allow many inside 50s (15th) but rank top 4 in points conceded, thanks to pressure and intercept marking. This high-wire act relies on key defenders like Maynard and Frampton.
The episode explores the growing importance of goals per inside 50 as a winning stat, shifting focus from territory to entry quality. The upcoming Carlton-Collingwood clash is previewed as a battle between Carlton’s contested ball strength and Collingwood’s scoring prevention, with playoff implications for both teams. Overall, the analysis underscores how modern AFL success hinges on efficiency in attack and defensive grit under pressure.
FAQs
The Lab Index ranks AFL teams weekly based on performance metrics, showing who rises and falls with explanations.
Carlton fell from 13th to 15th after a poor game in wet conditions against Hawthorn, with only 5.9% chain-to-score effectiveness.
Geelong's offense has dropped, with scoring down from 102 to 89 points per game and goals per inside 50 falling from 25.4% to 22.3%, partly due to Jeremy Cameron's injury.
Collingwood ranks 15th for opponents' inside 50s but top 4 for defense, using pressure and intercept marks to stop goals, with the best opponents' scoring shots per inside 50.
Goals per inside 50 correlation to winning has risen from 0.49 in 2022 to 0.87 this year, shifting focus from territory to quality entries and effective scoring.
The Western Bulldogs sit 14th on the index, with the biggest gap due to a tough draw and defensive reliance on midfield.
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