Speaker 1when you visit conferences or have conversations or panel discussions it's all never degradation and i you know like i sit there and when i look in 130 best scale projects of course it matters but they're performing a way better than the market things whereas like all the other components imbalances controls bms ems hvac all of those elements actually perform a way worse than the
Speaker 2market things in today's episode i spoke with dr stefan rohr co-founder and co-ceo of trace twas a provider of predictive battery analytics the software creates a digital twin of the battery to monitor predict and optimize its health and performance
Speaker 1and they gathered all the incidents on energy storage over years and we worked with them together 2024 and you know like uh categorized all problems where they actually come from and the interest being only 10 percent come from the cell 45 come actually from control like the ems not functioning bms not functioning and so on and 45 come from like balance of plan whatever inverter but also like some other components laid into this
Speaker 2bucket what is your contrarian belief on the current best market i think when hi stefan really nice to meet you i'm totally glad you took the time to make it on the podcast first question who are you and what do you actually do hi max uh
Speaker 1thanks first of all thanks for coming in um stefan founder and co-founder and ceo of twice and um working on batteries uh since quite a while so um started actually on batteries in 2014 so a while back um like after my studies i went like to my phd at the teo munich here in like in north of munich and um we like there was basically it was an interesting thing because we we i did my phd at the institute for automotive technology but the research project was actually stationary energy storage systems so i did my phd at the institute for automotive technology but the research project was actually stationary energy storage systems so the whole idea was you know like you can can you use batteries from from electric vehicles and give them a second life in some stationary energy storage system and what we did then basically we we built up like a 200 kilowatt hour grid storage in these days you would not call it grid storage anymore like with 200 kilowatt hours and we literally placed there every module by ourselves my co-founder did the battery management system i designed the cooling system it was here like in the east side of munich and uh there was project around that and we we we tried to learn you know like how can you make revenue with those assets it's right now very like straightforward and on the other hand also like how can you really make ensure performance safety lifetime of those assets and that is basically um the research what we have done there why did i end actually up there is even a bit before so i did mechanical engineering actually is my studies um and um also the to munich and then afterwards i want to i wanted to you know like see something else so i went to management consulting it was a small consultant company um spin or from bcg and booze and they had two research projects one like two projects basically where i was staffed on one was for like a wind turbine manufacturer and they explored it was 2012-13 so already quite a while back and they explored you know like um how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry so it was a very interesting project because they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how can they complement wind turbines with batteries and the second project was in the automotive industry and so they wanted to see how
Speaker 2it is not as straightforward uh if you studied mechanical engineering it is not as straightforward uh if you studied mechanical engineering and bachelor's and master's and bachelor's and master's and bachelor's and master's to go into two batteries you you uh give to go into two batteries you you uh give to go into two batteries you you uh give me an impression of why that is but what me an impression of why that is but what me an impression of why that is but what was it at the time like what at a rough was it at the time like what at a rough was it at the time like what at a rough time scale are we at time scale are we at time scale are we at and what was the current state of and what was the current state of and what was the current state of battery markets because um battery markets because um battery markets because um since uh i could imagine 2010 or whatever since uh i could imagine 2010 or whatever since uh i could imagine 2010 or whatever and there's been large development and there's been large development and there's been large development on the one hand side in the v space of on the one hand side in the v space of on the one hand side in the v space of course and then later stage we've seen course and then later stage we've seen course and then later stage we've seen the first applications of best the first applications of best the first applications of best in 2015 in europe um so in 2015 in europe um so in 2015 in europe um so what brought you to pursue a phd what brought you to pursue a phd what brought you to pursue a phd in this area that early there was a in this area that early there was a in this area that early there was a great timing uh um you can now say great timing uh um you can now say great timing uh um you can now say it's it's it's uh awesome timing but back it's it's it's uh awesome timing but back it's it's it's uh awesome timing but back then what was the rationale behind it then what was the rationale behind it
Speaker 1then what was the rationale behind it yeah so look um you see right like i i yeah so look um you see right like i i yeah so look um you see right like i i made my studies i was more like on the made my studies i was more like on the made my studies i was more like on the material science side um so in my material science side um so in my material science side um so in my mechanical engineering side and then the mechanical engineering side and then the mechanical engineering side and then the consultants consultants consultants time really pulled me out but i really time really pulled me out but i really time really pulled me out but i really like the trigger point for me was like like the trigger point for me was like like the trigger point for me was like the two projects it was really like on the two projects it was really like on the two projects it was really like on two projects and they basically it was two projects and they basically it was two projects and they basically it was like the time scale was 2012 and 2013 like the time scale was 2012 and 2013 like the time scale was 2012 and 2013 and they were both basically linked to and they were both basically linked to and they were both basically linked to batteries in this area i didn't batteries in this area i didn't batteries in this area i didn't understand too much about that during understand too much about that during understand too much about that during that time and i thought okay um that's that time and i thought okay um that's that time and i thought okay um that's like an interesting thing and batteries like an interesting thing and batteries like an interesting thing and batteries it's all it's all it's all during that time and you think about during that time and you think about during that time and you think about cell chemistry is a lot about materials cell chemistry is a lot about materials cell chemistry is a lot about materials as well um what kind of materials is in as well um what kind of materials is in as well um what kind of materials is in the batteries and you know like how the batteries and you know like how the batteries and you know like how you compose it how you produce it and you compose it how you produce it and you compose it how you produce it and those kind of things so i thought okay i those kind of things so i thought okay i really want to understand it uh in more really want to understand it uh in more really want to understand it uh in more detail and then there was just like the detail and then there was just like the detail and then there was just like the european like the bavarian government european like the bavarian government european like the bavarian government they put in 2013-14 so like um they put in 2013-14 so like um they put in 2013-14 so like um um a quite big chunk of money to the tu um a quite big chunk of money to the tu um a quite big chunk of money to the tu munich i think it was 30 million euros munich i think it was 30 million euros munich i think it was 30 million euros and another 20 million went to varta and another 20 million went to varta and another 20 million went to varta which just like went bankrupt like two which just like went bankrupt like two which just like went bankrupt like two weeks back but um weeks back but um weeks back but um they they they funded basically the first they they they funded basically the first they they they funded basically the first research on batteries at the tu munich research on batteries at the tu munich research on batteries at the tu munich so they built up a lot of institutes on so they built up a lot of institutes on so they built up a lot of institutes on the automotive technology then on the the automotive technology then on the the automotive technology then on the production production production institute on electric energy storage institute on electric energy storage institute on electric energy storage and chemistry they were funded basically and chemistry they were funded basically and chemistry they were funded basically in this period 2013-14 from the bavarian government and so put a lot of money behind it and open a lot of research you and open a lot of research you and open a lot of research you know like phd position so it was like know like phd position so it was like know like phd position so it was like really like this coincidence that the ui really like this coincidence that the ui really like this coincidence that the ui that's two projects then i thought okay that's two projects then i thought okay that's two projects then i thought okay that's quite interesting i checked out that's quite interesting i checked out that's quite interesting i checked out the market and then like basically the market and then like basically the market and then like basically there were like a bunch of like open rows there were like a bunch of like open rows there were like a bunch of like open rows there and i thought okay let's get into there and i thought okay let's get into there and i thought okay let's get into that and then that and then that and then there was like this weird wigs of like there was like this weird wigs of like there was like this weird wigs of like that i was actually working fully over that i was actually working fully over that i was actually working fully over years on stationary energy storage years on stationary energy storage years on stationary energy storage systems systems systems but actually i was like um um the phd but actually i was like um um the phd but actually i was like um um the phd was on the automotive technology was on the automotive technology was on the automotive technology area and and it was quite cool because area and and it was quite cool because area and and it was quite cool because we joined for example into solar in 2014 we joined for example into solar in 2014 we joined for example into solar in 2014 you know like it was like a towel um of you know like it was like a towel um of you know like it was like a towel um of of batteries because like there's no of batteries because like there's no of batteries because like there's no there was nothing there right and then there was nothing there right and then there was nothing there right and then over years over years over years it's basically um we did a lot of like i it's basically um we did a lot of like i it's basically um we did a lot of like i think a lot of the research during that think a lot of the research during that think a lot of the research during that time was time was time was i think the the battery alignment was was i think the the battery alignment was was i think the the battery alignment was was like the price for kilowatt hours in like the price for kilowatt hours in like the price for kilowatt hours in 2014-15 i think was 1200 or 1500 euros 2014-15 i think was 1200 or 1500 euros 2014-15 i think was 1200 or 1500 euros per kilowatt hour you know like it was per kilowatt hour you know like it was per kilowatt hour you know like it was insane um insane um insane um and then you know you joined over the and then you know you joined over the and then you know you joined over the research years every year like the research years every year like the research years every year like the inter solar and everyone it was still that inter solar and everyone it was still that inter solar and everyone it was still that tower it didn't it didn't grow or so tower it didn't grow or so tower it didn't grow or so because like everyone was still waiting because like everyone was still waiting because like everyone was still waiting until you know like it really lifts off until you know like it really lifts off until you know like it really lifts off and but it took it took years and i think and but it took it took years and i think and but it took it took years and i think the most uh research was the most uh research was the most uh research was still on you know like can still on you know like can still on you know like can i think the cost side how can you bring i think the cost side how can you bring i think the cost side how can you bring the cost down and it was a lot a lot on the cost down and it was a lot a lot on the cost down and it was a lot a lot on like lifetime as well our safety was a like lifetime as well our safety was a very critical piece during that time very critical piece during that time very critical piece during that time um it's still an important one but um i um it's still an important one but um i um it's still an important one but um i think the market get got more you know think the market get got more you know think the market get got more you know comfortable with it comfortable with it comfortable with it and uh that is basically um most of the and uh that is basically um most of the and uh that is basically um most of the time we spend then from 2014 to time we spend then from 2014 to time we spend then from 2014 to 2018. we did a lot of this research 2018 we did a lot of this research 2018 we did a lot of this research and then basically at the end of our and then basically at the end of our and then basically at the end of our research uh time um there was research uh time um there was research uh time um there was and that is basically like how then i and that is basically like how then i and that is basically like how then i found it twice together my co-founder is found it twice together my co-founder is found it twice together my co-founder is um we we like during that time there was um we we like during that time there was um we we like during that time there was just like the the production facilities just like the the production facilities just like the the production facilities mushrooming north world and a lot of mushrooming north world and a lot of mushrooming north world and a lot of other players in the market just like other players in the market just like other players in the market just like um launched a big production facilities or um launched a big production facilities or um launched a big production facilities or the ev manufacturers sonar motors in the ev manufacturers sonar motors in the ev manufacturers sonar motors in munich and fisker and all of those new munich and fisker and all of those new munich and fisker and all of those new everyone is was just like really everyone is was just like really everyone is was just like really concentrating on building either concentrating on building either concentrating on building either the cell production energy storage the cell production energy storage the cell production energy storage manufacturing or even manufacturing but manufacturing or even manufacturing but manufacturing or even manufacturing but there was not really like a there was not really like a there was not really like a a tooling provider in the market who was a tooling provider in the market who was a tooling provider in the market who was focused on you know like how can you focused on you know like how can you focused on you know like how can you give them some tooling to understand give them some tooling to understand give them some tooling to understand battery lifetime battery safety and um battery lifetime battery safety and um battery lifetime battery safety and um that was basically our opportunity or that was basically our opportunity or that was basically our opportunity or initial hypothesis uh to found twice to initial hypothesis uh to found twice to initial hypothesis uh to found twice to really build like this tooling provider really build like this tooling provider really build like this tooling provider to support uh the battery industry um to support uh the battery industry um to support uh the battery industry um and at the end it was only and at the end it was only and at the end it was only you know like it was actually 10 years you know like it was actually 10 years you know like it was actually 10 years like years of research like years of research like years of research and then we spin it off basically you and then we spin it off basically you and then we spin it off basically you know like and then over years we turn know like and then over years we turn know like and then over years we turn into a software company into a software company into a software company but uh the first couple of years it was but uh the first couple of years it was but uh the first couple of years it was more like uh you know like we took our more like uh you know like we took our more like uh you know like we took our algorithms and models and algorithms and models and algorithms and models and it was more knowledge uh in research uh it was more knowledge uh in research uh it was more knowledge uh in research uh during that time and the hypothesis during that time and the hypothesis during that time and the hypothesis that it will be needed
Speaker 2that it will be needed that it will be needed so to me to make like the timeline clear so to me to make like the timeline clear so to me to make like the timeline clear like um like um like um you you started pursuing your phd in uh you you started pursuing your phd in uh you you started pursuing your phd in uh 2014 right exactly and it took up until 2014 right exactly and it took up until 2014 right exactly and it took up until 2018 exactly and then there was there 2018 exactly and then there was there 2018 exactly and then there was there was the right timing to to spin off the was the right timing to to spin off the
Speaker 1was the right timing to to spin off the company yeah exactly so 2018 where you company yeah exactly so 2018 where you company yeah exactly so 2018 where you know like the good news of a phd is know like the good news of a phd is know like the good news of a phd is that it finishes at a certain moment that it finishes at a certain moment that it finishes at a certain moment times you have to leave you know they times you have to leave you know they times you have to leave you know they don't pay you the money like the job don't pay you the money like the job don't pay you the money like the job that uh your life anymore so you have to that uh your life anymore so you have to that uh your life anymore so you have to leave anyway and then you it was a good leave anyway and then you it was a good leave anyway and then you it was a good good moment um to You know found the company. So we found it twice and then from the beginning was like like I would say we pioneered this this battery analytics and Did that in in stationary energy storage and an ability side from the beginning. We also had some Applications in power toolings and so on but over time it was it got clear actually generates a way more value the larger the batteries are yeah, it makes sense and
Speaker 2You mentioned that inter solar like that back then there it was not about batteries This year I was at the inter solar and it has nothing to do with solar anymore It's only batteries basically When you when you go through the halls, I think that's why I probably also where they change the name that makes sense and then how came you to the idea and to the initial funding for doing this sort of spin-off like was this from the start of your PhD the plan to do it at the end or was it like Opportunistic or was it even encouraged like by the university system around it what like what drove the the motivation there?
Speaker 1Mm-hmm. I think it was probably a mix right like so from my personality like I found my first company when I was 16 so you know like we So we'd use cars basically could was like always more expensive a newspaper and then online so I like bought them one line in So in this time and it was like 2006 or seven eight, so it's very early So I was like always very my entrepreneurial minded having said so my PhD time as a like joint You know like this this research. It was not like the core of Like the core goal of spin that off from University So it was then just I think you need to have the right setup. So I met Michael like that went really well He was even more strong on a technical side a bit more of me on the commercial side. That's your co-founder, right? Michael is my co-founder. Okay, exactly and So I think it was just like a good team and we worked over years together and then in 2018 You know like we developed quite cool stuff during that time and we thought okay Hey and the good news about you Munich or like the during that time was like it was project with Vata for example together Also other industry players, so you already had like somehow the link to potential customers afterwards And I think that also drove some of the decision-making Because they you know, like they they they requested projects and and and work and he thought okay with they are paying for it And so I think we give it a go Why should not we just like independently provide this the services to the market? and Yeah, and then I think it also just helped that it was to Munich because then I mean like 2018 we've been as we found the company we basically already like with like the company registration pulled the first 1.2 million in from the unit limit on venture capital in speed invest so it gave us like initial boost and To to you know, like get the company off the ground and then it generated also some momentum and having said so, right? Like I think in this year's 2018 and to 2021 there was all about batteries. Yeah, so I think we catch the wave there.
Speaker 2Yeah, and honestly, like is it not like a rare example of like Policies That invested in the in the right technology at the right time with with the science infrastructure for battery research that you mentioned Yeah, and then those spin-offs will follow right? It's it's an excellent example of how it can work.
Speaker 1Yeah a hundred percent I think it's just like the time scale when you imagine right like probably the Bavarian government They made the decision in 2010 or 11 and then they spin up the pro program invest in 2012 13 14 of a couple of years And then you know, like you see the fruits ten years later, but you're right I think it was a very well executed and I think I haven't counted yet But as I found it a lot of like in supported a lot of different institutes. There are other spin-offs In the battery space which were actually sparked through their initial investment during that time. So it's quite cool.
Speaker 2So interesting obviously not all Made it all the way through like Yeah, no folds didn't make it through very prominently but super exciting and back then like now the way from the initial growth phase can you maybe roughly describe what the growth initial growth of twice twice was like and How you maybe? Started like what was your first customer? How did the company evolve over time? Have there been significant industries? Industry shifts starting off at 2018? Where were you at and maybe two to four years later? What changed? Yeah.
Speaker 1Okay. So as we found 2018 it was really like as I mentioned like this, you know like we spin off basically more the research and the hypothesis that you need like battery analytics tooling for certain industries and Then there was also like You know like the the major industries were of course like mobility and energy storage industry and such mobility and energy storage industry and some other projects like on power tools And then we discovered specific use cases in 2019 We get got the first customer the first two customers one was in stationary energy storage customer. We still have them They are called differently now, but because they also evolved but we had the first customer. It's not public who it is It's like it's it's units in Munich there before they were called small power units units interesting.
Speaker 2Yeah Yeah We have one co-worker like there has been that units before so we are quite familiar with them really pioneering company
Speaker 1Yeah, pioneering company. They were called small power before and they like was like the first stationary energy storage customer 2019 of twice We still have them and the second one was a mobility customer electric truck company actually a man from Munich so these were basically the first, you know projects and Where we supported really like In like the analytics and monitoring of those sites and I think that is what drove us from the beginning So as we've built up this stationary storage, right? We did like the research on revenue side and also on the on the performance and safety side and that to actually be discovered Right how much data actually those batteries? Generate right when you compare it to solar It's around 100 X per megawatt in terms of data points what the system's generating and then really making sense of it analyzing the data And understanding like degradation and safety and availability and all of those kind of things is basically Needed more or less in both industries and then We know like we were wolf 2020 and 21 and 22 is actually on our end We continuously added some kind of energy storage customers, but the market really ramped up very slowly. So there was you know It still took a couple of years Whereas on the other hand side the mobility side actually took more off during that time We always did from the beginning a few like these two industries because I Think when you're so early in some in such markets You don't you know like you can you can't put all your eggs in one basket because you don't know how it really evolves because you're so dependent on like the industry adoption and the speed there and also like how much do the industries and the customers really consume your Product and what is the need for that right? Like you're really in this still in this product market? search I would say for a market fit search and But we had like the first successful projects put then more money in and Now with the last years now to now You really evolve more to like an energy company. So the last three four years. We like the energy storage business You know took off around the globe and I think we were very early but we had a lot of opportunities to really catch the wave there and I think there it's it's just like a lot of our customers which are usually IPPs and utility companies who own and operate those sites they There's a lot of like value of being like an independent analytics and operations platform for them because they have like different Manufacturers and they won't have like an independent view on it and there are a lot of like issues the batteries But actually there's always a lot of other issues like on the HVAC system and on the inverters and so on And it's actually a fun thing for me because like as we like designed this 200 kilowatt-hour storage system I designed the cooling system and was probably half of the container was a cooling system I think probably I oversized it a bit slightly, you know, but you could really blow out probably the whole battery But now actually we see like some customers for example the US market from a specific integrator They have big safety problems because like the cooling system is undersized So and then it continues running at hundred percent you know like At high speed and that actually catches a fire on the HVAC side super interesting
Speaker 2maybe like to Better understand where you're at right now and what twice actually does currently I want to suggest that we maybe go on the classic best project level and Maybe originate your product and service where it attaches to the best system so in my understanding a best system consists of containers full of batteries basically they are somewhere connected to an MV skid so basically an inverter and and then they go to a transformer that then goes to the substation. There's then the battery management system layer that serves the operation of the battery itself. And then on a whole system level, so all components included, the EMS layer that serves the whole infrastructure around it. Given that set, where do your data points come from and how do you make sense out of it?
Speaker 1Yeah, okay. So at the end, right, like from a twice perspective, how we like the first question, like where we are right now, I mean, we currently have around 130 utility-scale best projects connected around the globe, Europe, the US market, Chile, Australia. So basically everywhere we're like excluding China, but everywhere else, but basically larger scale utility-scale projects are live. We do that over 20 gigawatt hours, so already quite significant size. So for us, there are like two elements. One is like how the storage is built up and where we get the data, but also like in what kind of phase we're getting in. So our core, let's start with the phase. So usually like we start in the commissioning phase of storage projects and then really a strong focus on the operational side. And why so? Because like the commissioning phase is actually the first point where you get the data because you bring in the containers, you know, like everything gets connected. And then usually. And usually tend it over from the EPC to the owner and operator. And in this, you know, like commissioning phase, hot and cold commissioning, the owner and operator need to sign a site acceptance test and say, okay, now like it's on me, basically. It's like when you buy like an apartment, it's on you now. But the thing is, we give them like an independent asset performance analysis. So we screen the whole plant, but really from the battery to the HVAC to the inverter, to the transformers, really everything until the point of interconnection and give them basically an independent verification if everything is working properly. And that can come from, you know, like you see some hotspots in the systems, you see some cables which are not banded the right way or not connected the right way. You see a lot in the data, actually. Or if like all the racks basically have a similar capacity or if the round trip efficiency of one container versus another string of. So the site is different and that informs and it's actually a good phase because the initial data is flowing. So in the energization and you also, you know, like the EPC is still there and the owner-operator, they're still there. So the fixing costs are quite small. When you don't catch them there, later it just gets more expensive because you know, you're like, you just like hit the revenue side and people have to go there again and so on. So that is a quite important phase for us, like this independent verification and then basically you're already like connected to the data and it continues in the operational phase. Now the question is, how do we get to the data? So it's exactly how you phrase it, right? You have like a battery management system, but the battery management system is basically the sensing device. So it gets, you know, like every voltage sensor, temperature sensor, current venture is connected to the BMS. And the BMS is basically what I always call, it's like the safety layer because it always needs to make sure that batteries are not overcharged and over discharged. So it will make sure that the batteries are not overcharged and make sure that that happens. And then you have the EMS, which basically connects all the sites, but also does a control, right? Like someone needs to, when the dispatcher gives a signal, someone in the whole best plan needs to transfer that into like now discharge and charge basically. And usually we get the data from the EMS or from the SCADA system, which is basically linked to the same bus, or we can even like bring in what we call a unified data foundation. So catch the data. So we can simplify ourself from like the bus system, but we always rely on, we get the data from the whole data. The thing is our customers, when you're like an IPP, right, or an utility company and you operate 10 different best projects and you have like two in Germany and one in Poland and two in Australia because you want to de-risk your, you know, like your revenue model. So you have to somehow spread it out. And you have some different integrators because you also don't want to have only one integrator. And then you're like technical asset manager and you imagine right now, you have like this globally distributed fleet with different integrators and SCADA and EMS and BMS and everyone showing some signal. So you have to get some kind of unified view. So for us, it's very important that we consume all information from EMS, BMS, SCADA, all other systems so that when a customer logs into our system, they get an error code from the system, but they also get our independent analytical information on what is the current capacity or do we have some specific anomalies in the system? Everything basically bundled in one view and one system. So due to that, we pull all data out of it. And over the years, you know, like we were originally as a battery company. So at the beginning, we were very much focused on the battery. But then over the last years, we really learned that battery is one part of the problem. But a lot of like the challenges, actually, the incidents come. There's like this, you know, EPRI in the US. No, it's like actually it's like an in basically like a research organization for like the major utility companies. And they gathered all the incidents on energy storage over years. And we worked with them together like two years back, 2024. And, you know, like categorized all problems where they actually come from. And the interest being only 10 percent come from the cell. Forty five come actually from control, like the EMS not functioning, BMS not functioning and so on. Five percent come from like balance of blend, whatever inverter. But I was like some other components like HVAC that played into this bucket. So basically what you already see, right, like it's the battery is one part of it. It's the largest one of an energy storage site. But all the other components are equally important. So due to that, we really expanding from a battery analytics, what we call now best analytics, because we need to cover everything until the point of interconnection, consume all data and then give our customers like a continuous view on these are the 10 topics. You have to solve. And that is what we are recommending.
Speaker 2Super interesting. I think that was that was really helpful to to get a better understanding of how you are able to collect the data and how to analyze the data and also what data is needed at all. Quick pause. And I promise it's short for this show. I try to bring the best possible guests and shoot the striking questions. Behind every episodes are hours of research and preparation because I want you to walk away having learned something real. If you want to support that, there's one really easy way. Hit the follow button and share this episode with one person who lives and breathes energy like we do. That small step makes a huge difference for the show. And honestly, thank you for listening and for every comment you leave. Your feedback shapes where this podcast goes next. So keep it coming. OK, back to the show now. I wanted to say, is it can I imagine? Your starting point in the commissioning phase as some sort of like physical due diligence that you like really involved in the handover in between EPC and IPP and really make sure that the project itself as it is structured physically and also like digitally through the EMS and whatever, then everything is set up properly.
Speaker 1Yes, exactly. So I think like a lot of like why do companies like us exist comes from because we are an independent party. So and the thing is, this independency gives you trust in this process, right? Because at the end, it's not like the IPP was like doing some analysis, not the EPC was doing some analysis, but it's really like provided from independent analytics company. Most of the vendors know us in our market like Europe, the US and so on. And then it's really like a like it's a it's a check of the whole system. And it has two elements. One is really during the commissioning process to, you know, to help them to understand, OK, hey, this HVAC system is really not working properly and you have to change it or so, but it's also at the end. It's really like a, you know, like they get a report and they, you know, like they can now because there's always like humans need to take the decision responsibility, it's also like you can just like sign the site acceptance test with more comfort when you know, OK, I had to get an independent view on it. And now like it is also a difference, right? Like as we started, I started with 200 kilowatt hours, what was one container. And the first sites we connected was probably maybe I think it was even like a 10 megawatt hour system or so, but now we just recently connected the 2.7 gigawatt hour system in US market, which are like just like imagine that, right? I think the scale drives also one part of our value proposition, because when you're the more different integrators, the larger the fleets, the larger the sites. It's just a statistical game. The more complexity it has and you know, like and then you have like a lot of different vendors and data flows and and it's also like a lot of work, right? Because imagine every, you know, like there's a lot of work on our end, actually, because when you get to the data, what is a temperature signal? What is a voltage signal? What you know, like you have to map that all together because every system out there in the market provides a different have their own terminology. But it's for a customer. It's just it's insane because you can't think which now we have this alert. Where does it really? to which component does it belong to? so on and to really extreme line is like a lot of actually operational efficiency then how do you
Speaker 2make sense of the data like do you have like an internal algorithm that like learns from the issues that happened in the past and then like predicts uh what like data signal would mean this sort of error or how can i imagine it yeah exactly
Speaker 1so at the end i think on our end like on technology side it starts with like an initial like data mapping so we have like our own ontology we call it it's basically maps um and there are a lot of different ontologies out there because like if it's like you have like a standalone best or you have like a standalone best with like an solar couple dc ac coupled however it's like put together you calculate round trip efficiency differently because you know like i think and right like we build up an ontology which really represents a big share of the market and then we get the data in and then we you know like map it to our ontology and based on this ontology we run a lot of different algorithms and uh they a lot of them are deterministic and and some of them are like more data-based and but for us it's really important to get like some kind of ground truth right for example right now um a customer you know you sign an ltc on your storage project and um then basically to verify your capacity what you do is usually do a yearly capacity check right so you have to you know like charge and discharge it and then figure out if it's still good or not and now with our system they get a daily capacity check so every day they log in and they see exactly how much capacity do they have but also they have more details on it how much is actually aged so degraded how much is actually due to other issues like imbalances offline components all of those kind of things and for every of these elements you have different algorithms so we get their data in you know like you map it and you have your ontology and then have a lot of different algorithms to generate this you know ground truth of you know like physical performance of those
Speaker 2sites i can imagine that you are like a really good third party as well in between the the let's say um company manufacturing the best system and the ipp as well because what in between the ipp and the uh let's say sungrow or trina or whoever your best uh the companies that you are ordering your best components from um they they somehow have to negotiate a guarantee right and um i noticed that uh recently a lot of them came out with flexible forms of uh guarantees uh which is really nice for ipps like uh us yeah it's because you can allocate the uh how many cycles you want to do quite freely in a certain time frame and obviously in a market that saturates in in revenue over time you want to allocate as many as possible now up front yeah and um i do i assume right that uh having twice on board for that uh like enables the tracking of those more complex and more flexible forms of guarantees and what role do you play in this
Speaker 1yeah exactly so i i think it has two elements one is when there is an ltsa we have like our what you call warranty tracker solution so we ingest um all like the the contractual kpis in our system and then our system threats on a daily base or like continuously actually more closer to real time what is like you know like uh all the different like there are two elements if like the itp is really like using this storage how they should do and on the other hand also like is the system performance you know how it should be and exactly there are like a lot of different variables and you know how they should be and how they should be and how they should be and uh um you know like where you have like penalties but also where you can cycle spec and so on so there's like a lot of like um different structures in the in in the industry now and they can interest that in our system automatic tracks and then they press a button and see okay uh how did we perform you know like and they all can send it to the integrator as well because i can generate the proof so in this it it heavily simplifies the operational load because otherwise if and every storage has almost a different ltsa yeah also the integrators they're continuously you know like as the manufacturer continuously advancing so what they launched last year is not through the today anymore so they're continuously advancing as well so and then you can just like interest that and if per project size you can then automatically track grants as warranties and then really claim back what you think but it also on the other hand so it's really there to hold also the oem manufacturer accountable on on the contracts and the second element is also like sometimes we already like helped customers early in the process because when they write this lt's ace with you know with the integrators and the oems there's also like some things you need to consider right because and i think we come to the point later but um different performance kpis matter for different commercial structures right because for example when you think about you have a merchant system something else matters than when you have like a tolling agreement in particular so that's another thing that we need to consider right because sometimes when you have a merchant system something else matters than when you have a tolling agreement in place so and um you know like for example there's availability metrics in in in in lt's ace which more or less mostly calculate if the system is online or offline but when you're on a toll and you have to provide whatever 200 megawatt hours um then maybe the system is more or less like all components are online but you have some challenges in the system and you only provide 150 megawatt hours then this lts8 does not help you yeah so i think you need to think about that and then you need to really i think but there's a learning cycle of
Speaker 2the whole industry yeah 100 and i think uh we we're still probably at the beginning of this learning cycle um maybe there's there are some some more advanced markets i'm pretty interested in your opinion on the uk market and if you are active there because it should have had a lot of the learnings uh quite some time before us in germany um really really interested on on your opinion on that but i wanted to mention one thing because i always said guarantees what i mean by that is warranties obviously yes um it's quite confusing with the german word uh but just to clarify that everyone knows what we're talking about um and then i think i understood the value that you have in like making sure that all the data that is necessary to track all the contracts that are made on the best project as like warranties and stuff like that um that it makes sense but what is like the commercial benefits that uh as an ipp i would have with trace um twice um which is um i can imagine that by making sure that um you we have a sufficient database and maybe are able to predict some errors or see them quite in advance you uh save some revenue which you otherwise would have lost right um and but but i'm not quite sure how this like what the commercial share of this is with regards to the whole revenue scheme of one project so i'm quite interested in that
Speaker 1as well okay no like look so there are a few different value pillars for us um one is uh the whole performance piece performance is a key value pillar for us um what is that it's basically at the end only thing you care is what is my usable energy of my system and what is my usable power basically and the thing is right when you think about the german german market what what are the earnings right now at 200 000 or so per megawatt or so yeah um when you have a two-hour system you know like then maybe like it's 100 000 per megawatt hour right and in a lot of our systems we have you know like we see they are not at 100 usable energy but maybe only like at 92 percent so eight percent missing multiplied with like uh so it's like tens of thousands it's hundreds of thousand years or so you're missing on a yearly basis just because you have like less usable energy where does this less usable energy come from there are a lot of different reasons everyone thinks about degradation but actually degradation does not matter because all the systems are new um so it's like offline components it's like imbalances of the system it's weak components it's like um hvac are getting too hot the pcs is derating gets very complex and then over time you lose like percentage points and percentage point you end up with 92 lose eight percent um it's like a quite big impact when we help our customers to really increase usable energy and usable power that is on merchant system now imagine on a toll where you like you're the owner and you go into tolling agreement and now you not like because like 100 megawatt hours when you know like when you only provide 19 megawatt hours you lose 10 but um at the end it's that's it it has an economic impact but that's it basically when you are like um promising 100 megawatt hours in a toll and you only provide 90 then you don't lose only lose a 10 megawatt hours but you have like a lot of penalties actually in in those systems so the risk is asymmetric so you it's actually often in lt in tolling agreements even more important for the owner who provides the assets to really understand always on point can i provide the usable energy in usable power and most of the systems have problems out there we just did like a study at the beginning of the year and most of the systems have problems out there we just did like and what comes out there is around 50 percent of the own like it was a study with 120 owners and operators of large-scale utility scale projects So, quite a decent group, everyone, operational assets have monthly unexpected incidents in their storages. 50% of them, again, are revenue impacting, so usable energy, usable power. And they spend around 70% of the time on the root cause analysis. So, there are two elements. One is to identify it, to really unlock it, but also how long does it take to really fix it. And then you don't have, like in your warranty or LTSA agreements, the time for the integrators to fix those problems. So then, you know, like you can lose a lot of revenue side. So that is like the big first value pillar performance, which is very important on merchant system. In my opinion, even more important on tolling or any like fixed commercial structure. Then the second value pillar is safety and safety is actually, it's interesting because over the years, initially it was all about safety. Now, I think the market got more used to that batteries, you know, like they can burn, but not every battery burns. So, there's a lot of like emotions in the market, but it's still a very important topic. But there's also like the maturity of the components of the integrators, everything is maturing. So, which improves the safety of the system. Having said so, there is like what we managed over years now is that we are an additional safety layer. So, when you can remember. Imagine an onion with another layer on top of it, you know, which protects safety like sprinkler and a lot of other elements as well. And insurance companies, more and more insurance companies requesting like an independent analytics layer is a risk mitigation measure. So, as soon as you have that, basically they can lower the premiums because you are less likely that you burn because you can predict certain incidents in the future. And that you can directly also translate into like euros per cycle. Per site basically. Or you operate it and usually you have like yearly renewal cycles. So, you can use all basically your history showing basic to your broker insurance company. Hey, like I used twice and you know, like we operate the site now, we didn't have any safety incident or we had like three incidents. But we fixed it like, you know, like in this timeframe that were like the actions, that was the outcome. It gives you a lot of comfort with insurance companies to really reinsure those sites and renew. And lower the risk premium. So, that is like the second element on it.
Speaker 2So, from an IPP perspective, one is reducing OPEX, the cost. Exactly. And on the other side, one is just making sure that the revenues come in that you predicted in your business model, right?
Speaker 1Exactly. And the tolls can be the question how you calculate in the penalties or could be also like some part of like the OPEX. However, you like place it in. But you have to, you know, like when you get the penalties. Exactly. So, the third one is it's increasingly relevant is what we call operational efficiency. Is the question is how many technical asset managers, performance engineers, O&M people you need for energy storage per site. So, when you don't have like this operational infrastructure in place and check for this site with this integrated the SCADA EMS and a lot of this system and there are the other system. And so, it's just like it gets very complex. So, when you, for example, need to do your monthly availability reporting, either you crunch numbers for weeks on all the different sites or you just have like a system like twice in place. So, it's just like you can run more like larger fleets and larger assets with like less people. So, that is also like some direct impact on the OPEX of those sites. So, these are the more or less the three major value pillars right now.
Speaker 2Super interesting. And like one question I think most people that work at IPPs would have right now is how does the hardware matter? Like to what extent does it matter? Because you should have access to the right data to tell us. So, what is the difference for selecting a tier one player as your best manufacturer? Or selecting like a tier two player? Like how is the spread between the Sunrows of the world and the let's say BYDs of the world and the let's say tier three players and so on? Is there like any significance that you find in the data that the hardware actually matters and that it's evident across projects that some suppliers are significantly better in performing appropriately than others?
Speaker 1Yeah. So, I mean like we internally so far at least made like the, you know, like a policy that, you know, like don't select specific integrators and mention it. Because there's always like also important for us that we, you know, we work with the IPPs but also like the integrators, you know, like they need to act on our recommendations and topics. Having said so, when you go one step back and independent from the individual names and think about the tier ones, tier twos, tier threes, there's a huge difference. So, we have projects which, you know, like run whatever like 85% of availability of the new project. It's like whatever nine months old or so. Then you have like projects which have like… That's significant. Then you have projects which have like massive age rate problems. So, then you have to continuously… And this can be easy problems. They have to just send continuously people to the sites because the filter is clocking. It's just like closed. And then, you know, like the age rate, you know, stopping. You need to send someone to like exchange the filters. Okay. But like some easy problems. But there's like a lot of, you know, like different elements or they have like what we call a sibling effect. That is actually one of the worst parts is that when you have like one weak component in the system. Terminus is the battery or like the inverter or whatever. How many other components… How is it connected and how many other components does it actually implement? How many other components does it actually impact? Because then you maybe have a small problem but it takes you out the whole container. And so, there are like some architectures in the industry right now which can have like a big impact actually, the sibling effect. So, a small component. And there are other players which can nicely isolate it. So, maybe you have the same problem but the impact is less so. Or also others, right? Like you have the age rate systems which are undersized right now in the market and so on. So, there's like big variety of systems. And I think one risk is with like, you know, like the suppliers is there was just I think a couple of weeks back when they also did always a ranking how many like does CATL have and so on. And a trend right now is that actually it's divisive. It gets more diverse, right? It's not like that actually it gets more consolidated. So, it gets more diverse. Often also due to the pricing side of it. But, you know, like for example… For example, the powering bankruptcy in the US, a lot of like our customers and like people operating those assets in the US with like no powering got out of business and they have the sites there. It's a nightmare. So, because you have like the stranded sites, you don't have a team anymore to support it. The warranties are meaningless. So, I think there's, you know, like bankruptcy risk on the integrator side is a very, very important one.
Speaker 2Yeah. Can you maybe give us context on who that is and what actually happened? So, because I'm not sure if everyone knows it, as we like mainly touched European specific topics. So, at the end,
Speaker 1you have like in the US, you have like basically two major integrators. One is Fluence, which is still around. And they in general was doing a good job. And then you have like Powin, which was another like very powerful integrator. So, it was like more startup, but also growing up. And they provided a lot of like locally manufactured energy storage systems to almost all, like a lot of the US customers have Powin systems. And they went bankrupt, I think, one and a half years back or so. And then, you know, like in completely like dissolved the company, some parts were bought and so on. But then you're like an IPP and you have like hundreds of members. So, you know, you have to do a lot of things. Yeah. And then you have like hundreds of megawatt hours on with this integrator. And then they have like, you know, different challenges on the HVAC systems or on the communication side and so on. And then the question is whom to contact and so on. So, like a lot of it's even slowed down like a lot of like the IPPs in the US, but only because like they have the stranded assets there. And imagine that, right? Like it's now as the industry is growing up. So, I think that is matters way more. So, my experience is like everyone is tending towards taking that opportunity. Everyone is tending towards taking that a bit more serious. Having said, I think there is like another element independent from… So, the impact is large between different integrators, but also between different system designs and so on. Some are working really properly, right? But some of them have more challenges. My thing still is every energy storage system is in high touch system. There are always problems. Some are more minor, some are more major. But when you not continuously really manage those sites actively, then you will get some challenges. Because imbalances are ramping up and then slowly the drops the capacity and the usable energy. So, you just have to continue this work. You have to change the filters. You have to run the rebalance mechanism and so on. It's not like only a container which comes like ARR out of it. So, you have to really actively manage it. And I think… that is quite important i think one trend we are seeing is that customers get more because even like a lot of like the it's a pricing thing right like how much do you spend on those hardware things but it has two elements one is really like the physical hardware and one is how much do you spend on warranties and ltsas right because you can spend a lot of money like put into an opex per site and i think there is a tendency of you know like um and of course like the integrator always wants to push you to sign to the highest category and pay whatever 10 000 euros uh per megawatt on a yearly basis um but at the end i think there's a tendency that the companies get more used to it and also like for example it's also a value proposition for us when you really continuously understand your assets properly that you maybe even go with like lower you know like lower um packages on on the ltsa and buckets because you get more comfortable and when there is some problem then you know like you just face it fast and replace it because the spare part is often not
Speaker 2the problem actually yeah super super interesting um like adding up on the uh on the battery safety part um i also wanted to uh to add a new market trend that recently popped up i um that is sodium iron uh cell technologies that are coming in yes they have uh we've seen a huge citl investment in the production capacity for for those sodium ion battery cells even though i've had already a guest tom bötticher who's building litona he develops sodium ion cells in germany and from him i already know that lfp cells and the sodium ion equivalent of lfp cells can be produced roughly on the same uh production lines as as so it uh the citl investment is probably um significant amount is uh is about um actually like securing the supply chain research infrastructure whatever um but i think it was a huge market signal and we've also seen peak uh peak uh energy in the in the us market popping up like former uh north volt founders now developing uh grid scale bass uh in the sodium iron space and they um they have the um the characteristic that they perform quite well even in extreme weather scenarios right um so from an analytics uh standpoint like how like how can i how can you price in in your project the additional safety component that assumingly uh a sodium ion battery project could have um and is this something that you've already experienced with like uh do you have currently a sodium ion uh best project uh already in your portfolio and i can you give us like a an idea of uh how this changes the analytics of a best project
Speaker 1look i i think um so first of all my my personal view is that sodium iron also is an interesting technology right like i think a way more than like this whole solid state trend i think sodium ion can definitely be at a certain time point uh be quite competitive to lfp uh chemistry um and the major reason is exactly what you've phrased because you can produce it also like on on the existing production lines because when you continuously continue completely you know like build up new manufacturing capacity can be like a short-stop right i still think it depends on like the supply chain and the materials and so on right like as soon as long as lfp costs are still coming down which is currently the case um i mean it jumps a bit maybe but it's overall the trend is still going downwards um it also gets more competitive for sodium iron but in general i'm still a big believer that that is a promising technology we already analyzed a lot of different sodium iron cells but not like on a large scale utility scale project more on the cell side to understand like the characteristics of those cells and i think there are some just like some you know um it change right like there are two elements to it right like what does it changes on an analytical side there are some um characteristics in those cells which need to be considered right for example when you think about the lfp cell you have a very flat ocv curve it's like very technical it's like that
Speaker 2what is what is ocv
Speaker 1is like the open circuit voltage so basically when you you have like the battery at 100 and then it has maybe like 4.2 volt and then you charge it by to 90 and then it was only 3.9 volt and when you map that out over the soc you get a curve okay um and this curve the problem is with lfp set chemistry is that this curve is super flat so now the problem is when you're at whatever 70 percent soc in 60 soc when it's line you you can't actually go down the world doesn't go down yeah now the problem is a lot of the soc estimation of batteries is based on this svv curve so what they do is basically they put this svv curve on the battery management system um and then the bms says okay now we are at 3.7 volt goes up and say okay now we're at 60 soc or at 80 percent so and that makes it very hard to understand and state of charge over over our lfp cell it's like the very flat ocb curve so in those characteristics change on the specific sodium ion cells but having said so the sodium ion you have also like a lot of different materials in there there is no clear trend yet how really a sodium ion cell a domestic one large scale produced one really behaves but it can change some of the equations or also like that maybe the voltage window changes um so it has an impact on the on the analytical side but i still think that even then um it's a new technology people will be way more sensitive on really understanding it how it behaves on in the real world so i think because when you introduce a new technology there's actually more uncertainty so i think it tries probably rather understanding and understanding how it behaves on in the real world so i think because when you introduce a new technology there's actually more uncertainty so i think it tries probably rather understanding and understanding how it behaves on in the real world so i think because when you introduce a new technology there's actually more uncertainty so i think it tries probably rather understanding and understanding how it behaves on in the real world so i think because monitoring analyzing that in the field and then still i think it does not change on the overall that monitoring analyzing that in the field and then still i think it does not change on the overall a lot of the problems in the future a lot of the problems in the future a lot of the problems in the future it will not be the battery only it's the hvac it will not be the battery only it's the hvac it will not be the battery only it's the hvac it's the inverter it's a transformer everything it's the hvac it's the inverter it's the transformer everything until the point of interconnection control until the point of interconnection control until the point of interconnection control system and so on so um i think the ems companies the bms companies need to change because of a new cell chemistry there's like a there will be a lot of the hvac needs to be designed differently because you have like is your right sodium ion is a bit more comfortable with also higher temperature so you can get more flexible on that and so it's it's like an overall you know like design problem again for the whole industry to get sodium ion in the really like like larger scale utility scale to make like strong professionalized projects yeah at
Speaker 2the end best is always like a scale game and exactly if the infrastructure is not there it just costs time and someone has to believe in it as well exactly and definitely agree that it's a promising technology but still it's really interesting that you also haven't like seen a lot of utility scale bass projects being developed with this
Speaker 1technology it's only research so we have like a few customers who start developing some two megawatt output and then they start developing some two megawatt output and then they start developing some two megawatt output and then they start developing some two megawatt output and then our sodium ion battery system but they are not live yet so they are just like in the in the in the process so i think it's very early
Speaker 2stage yeah super super interesting and then you are like you already have you you mentioned that you have 20 gigawatt hours above 20 yeah uh live um so what markets are you currently active in and what are maybe the differences like um yeah so i mean
Speaker 1right now i mean we are originally in in in in germany right like munich but then you know like we spend it up across europe so we have like customers like in the nordics in uk of course a quite important market for us spain um what in europe the trend is more like to the east as well like poland bulgaria romania like a lot of storage projects coming online there quite because like the government introduced some um you know incentives there so there's a lot of projects going on there then we launched in 2021 or two our u.s um company um and we have a lot of so we were company u.s as well um and the team there so the u.s is like our major equally important to the european business on our end and so u.s market it also covers chile now so we have like in the atacama uh desert we have projects live there which we are connected to our
Speaker 2systems why is there so much activity in chile in the renewable space i feel like um many companies that once make the step to the s also make the step to chile uh what was the decision i think it's it's just
Speaker 1like i mean we are so it's very pragmatic at the end we go there you can look at the global uh the like the planet and then you see the countries and then you know like how many like gigawatt hours they are currently in the pipeline and when they become operational and we are following this trend then we are there so i think what drives it right like because like for example chile they also have a lot of solar and wind penetration and as soon as you like i think it's like this curve when solar and wind ramps up at a certain moment time you get too much volatility you have to add more energy storage however that is then really incentivized or not or structured from government and like a like also like a power regulatory sense but i think that tries a lot of they have a strong renewable angle chile um solar and wind and it tries probably also like the energy storage ramp up and the sites there are really large so um they're not too many individual projects but they are like in the hundreds of megawatt hours each or even gigawatt hours of of of sites and the same is actually now due to that chile is important for us um so yes chile and now the next market where we are now the first customers but also like already live projects several ones are australia is australia so um because market as well right huge market um because and i think the biggest trend there is just they they go to really long duration systems so i think four hours on the lower end i just had a conversation was there in march and we've like um which is a customer now from us um and we had like the conversation there and you know like and she calls a 200 megawatt hour baby bass
Speaker 2okay that's different to germany
Speaker 1that's different to germany you know like i think what is a large one probably right now yeah it's like in this range you know um but there you know like it's ramping up into the gigawatt hours per single site um and also due to like they have a lot of solar a lot of wind um so a lot of solar especially and like the drive like this adoption and they go to really long durations whereas like in germany you have like still a lot of the two hour systems um in place and also in the u.s as well it's increasingly longer duration but still um two hour system dominating it you said excluding
Speaker 2China specifically. What is the
Speaker 1reason for that? I think I mean it is like I think a lot of value comes for us through that you know like a lot of the batteries are coming from China right like in Korea but like mostly China and a lot of value comes from us also like no one really in like the Europe or the US or so wants to like it's critical infrastructure and no one wants to monitor critical infrastructure with Chinese software. So there is like a gap in the market where you need to have like it has to come from you know like Europe just from a political sense already. I think that argument does not exist when you go to China on our end. Having said so it is actually the opposite. So I think the batteries are in China or also critical infrastructure. You have a very hard time as a European vendor to go there and say hey now we monitoring your grid assets. So we have some conversations but I think it's just like when we put now like investment you know like the returns are way higher in other markets. There are a lot of other reasons as well for example in China they in general pay less for software. So there is like less the mentality to pay for software and services and then it's just like also it's harder for us to make business there and there's still a lot of you know like room for us to grow. europe the us and it's already like we're a small company still but you know like covering australia europe chile and us already is enough for
Speaker 2us yeah that makes sense what is the next market that you
Speaker 1you have a look on it it's right now it's australia so um that is like our major um market uh there uh australia new zealand uh because there's just so much uh stuff going on another interesting area of course the gulf uh region so middle east there's also like a lot of storage projects coming online
Speaker 2there yeah i saw those uh those big announcements of uh the sangro system that they're deploying it was like 7.8 gigawatt hour system um so maybe we will see twice uh on
Speaker 1the project right hopefully hopefully hopefully but the thing is also like often with like the pipelines you know like i think um the market trend what is like the biggest question right now how much of this pipeline becomes really reality and how fast because you become reality and it tries a lot of our business decisions as well and also like you know like how much you know know and it drives basically the pipeline again how much money do they really make in those markets so how commercially attractive is the business case really is an important metric in my opinion
Speaker 2going forward that makes sense and maybe um one question i i'd like to ask is what is your contrarian belief on uh the current best market you can interpret this as an germany specific contrarian belief or you can interpret this as a like worldwide phenomenon um what is like a contrarian belief that you think uh you have but the most of the market do not see at the moment
Speaker 1i think when you when when i need to think more about it but when i went down to really our core of like best analytics and battery analytics i think like the whole market they over estimate like the importance of the battery cell and degradation of it a lot of the problems and everything comes from a lot of other elements in in the systems um but when you when you visit confer like conferences or have conversations or panel discussion it's only about degradation it's only about degradation and i you know like i sit there and you know like when i look in 130 best scale projects of course it matters but um it's you know like it's it's often a way more like actually they're performing a way better than uh you know like the market things um whereas like the all the other components imbalances controls bms ems hback all of those elements actually perform a way worse than the market
Speaker 2things super interesting honestly and um i i always end with one question um which is uh kind of a mean one but i really want to make you place your comment on that one uh it is um i always ask what is your expectation how many utility scale baths capacity will we see in germany in 2030 i did this across all my podcasts and everyone had had to place a and at the end in 2030 I will collect all those bats and someone will get the pot. So currently in Germany I also gave to be fair today I've also talked to Steffen, Founder and CEO of Antrix and he got the same clue so you get the same one as well. So in Germany from the Markstammdatenregister the registered projects that are not currently built but that are at least registered and planned to be built uh until 2030 so just not pipeline of grid applications but actually registered and not sure if they get built but registered uh it's quite a bit above 20 uh 20 gigawatt right now uh so this is an indicator that stefan had so i'm giving it to you as well what would be your bet
Speaker 1so in 2030 like operational
Speaker 2assets cud uh cud and the the the date is 31th of december december 2030 and at 20 gigawatt is that
Speaker 1basically what was currently registered
Speaker 2already like in that it is registered um and uh it it can mean it it still can mean that it will be way more because there's a shit ton of pipeline in between like a few hundred of gigawatt And it can also be less, because maybe some projects fail to get investment and stuff like that.
Speaker 1So my optimistic view, like my wish would be 100 gigawatt hours, but realistic is probably 70.
Speaker 2In gigawatt hours? And maybe in gigawatt just because I always. It's like half of it, let's say. Okay, so we're like 35 gigawatt. Exactly. Nice. Nice. Thank you so much for your time. Thank you, it was a good chat.
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