Why Israeli Elections Never Produce a Clear Winner

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You could get it. So subscribe today at SUPIRjournal.org/noam completely free of charge. That's SUPIRjournal.org/noam and I'll spell it for you. S-A-P-I-R-J-O-U-R-N-A-L.org/noam. N-O-A-M. I thought you would know how to spell that. And I figured you should know how to spell journal also. Anyway, click the link in the episode notes or just go to SUPIRjournal.org/noam. It's all there and I think you'll find it incredibly insightful. Hey, I'm Noam Weissmann and this is Unpacking Israeli History. The podcast that takes a deep dive into some of the most intense, historically fascinating and often misunderstood events and stories linked to Israeli history. Before we start, as always, check us out on Instagram, on TikTok, on YouTube, all the places just search Unpacking Israeli History and hit the follow or subscribe button. And one more thing, I'm on Instagram. Check it out. Me, Noam Weissmann, Noam L Weissmann underscore. Sometimes it's interesting. I think it is. I don't know. Maybe it's not. I think my wife likes it. Not sure. Anyway, follow the link in the description of this episode. Okay, Yala, let's do this. Listen, if you like this episode and you just heard this on the ad, you're going to love SUPIRjournal.org. And I got a name that it's a quarterly journal of ideas edited by Brett Stevens. You got to check it out, subscribe for free at SUPIRjournal.org/Noam. Really, really, really check it out. It's awesome. It's awesome. All the brilliant ideas from diverse perspectives, the way good learning and education should be. Speaking of good learning and good education, today's episode is about something many of us are very not educated about. And we want to learn a lot more about it. It's about Israeli elections. And when I say Israeli elections, it's not really an episode about the 2026 election alone, which is coming up very soon in like two months. We're not going to be focusing. I'm using the word focusing on candidates and predictions for this year. That's not my focus. I'm not the hot takes guy, as you know. What we wanted to do here is classic unpacking Israeli history style. Slow down. Take a step back and actually understand what's going on. What are Israeli elections all about? Israel doesn't have a president that you vote for directly. It doesn't have two parties. Nothing in Israel seems to work the way Americans expect. So today's about this system. So the system, not the outcome. And to speak about the system, to speak about the history, I am talking to Rachel Azaria. Rachel is exactly who the way I view it, that you want explaining all of this. She spent years inside the system, city council, the Kinesa Israel's parliament, actually getting things done through it. She's not just experienced. She's an expert who has lived the thing she's about to break down. Rachel, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you. I'm happy to be here. Happy it worked out. So let's go directly into the conversation. I want to really understand the Israeli election experience. I'm going to go broad and get more specific as we go along. And the first segment, the first idea I really want to speak about with you about is why does Israel keep having elections? Israel has had 25 elections to date, and if I did my math correctly, 25 elections, in how many years has Israel been around not yet 80 years, right? So it hasn't been around 80 years, and it has had 25 elections. Most Americans think they understand elections. Last election in America in the United States, we voted either for Donald Trump, the guy in the ballot for the Republican party, or voted for Kamala Harris running for the Democratic party. It has one person, one party. They either win or they lose, leadership, that's how it works. And if you're listening from the UK or Canada or Australia or South Africa or Mexico or wherever you are, you're probably thinking, sure, my system doesn't work exactly like that either. And maybe I said one of those countries incorrectly, I vote for a local candidate, or my ballot has preferences or my countries had actual coalition governments too. So, okay, I get you, I feel you. But Israel is stranger than all of those. So let's start with the basics. When Israelis go to the ballot boxes in October or anytime, can you explain simply what an Israeli actually votes for? - Okay, so in Israeli, when you go into the ballot and you vote, you have boxes with many, many, many, different sheets of paper that you can choose and put in the envelope and vote for. And it's important for me to say that there are many of them because you choose a party that you believe in the party. And there can be six, seven, eight, nine, ten, many different parties in this really parliament. Out of these parties, okay. - I'm with you. - Okay, whoever gets the most votes or whoever has the most chances of forming a coalition after the elections, this is something that's being figured out. And then the different parties, they say who they believe in, one of the leaders of one of the parties and the president, which is more, our system is more kind of like the British queen, okay? The queen of England. So he has the members of the different parties come in and say who they recommend or who, and then whoever has the most possibility of being able to form a coalition, they're granted the option to form a coalition. And then they have time to form the coalition. If they're successful, then the government is voted in and they start working if they're not successful and that's what we've been seeing over the past few years time after time. If no one is successful in forming a coalition, you go back to elections. And there can be one party that gets an opportunity to form a coalition and they may not be successful. And then another party can get an opportunity to form a coalition, which basically what it means is that once our elections are over, it doesn't mean everything is over. It means that we're still trying to figure out who will be the next leader of the state of Israel. And how do you actually build a political party, meaning like if you get 3.25% of the vote, then you're able to form a party. But it wasn't always that way in Israel's founding through 1988, it was around 1%, and then it was raised to 1.5%, and then 2%, and now it's 3.25%. Does that weigh into the whole calculus? - Yes, I mean, most parties are not democratic parties in any way, there is no way that the people of Israel vote to decide or the members of the party vote to decide who would be their representatives in the party. It's often someone charismatic that starts his party. He brings in either people he agrees with or people he knows or people he believes in or whatever, and they form a party. He's the head of the party usually, it's usually a he. - Yeah, I was gonna say he was saying he because it is usually, it has been recent. I was looking at the head of all the parties right now, and it's all men. - It's all men, yeah. Women did head parties in Israel, but usually women have more chances of heading a party when it's an organized party with the democratic system when things are very clear. Usually when it's not clear, that's in feminist theory, it's all over the place, okay? So whenever there are no very set rules, usually women can't, they can't make it. So it becomes more-- - Meeting not structurally, not by the law or the rule, but by-- - Yeah, no, it's not structured, yeah. When it's not structured, yeah. So there's their heads of parties, and if they're charismatic enough, if they're loved enough by Israeli society or whatever, they can start, whoever wants can start their own party, but then they have chances of actually being elected. And we see that they're quite a few candidates that have, by the polls at least, they have a lot of votes, we're like, "God, the eyes aren't caught, and the eye will appeared, and Bennett, that joined the eye will appear, and the old orthodox, right?" They also have their parties, their parties, also aren't democratic parties. And they will be elected, probably. And then there, there are group of people that are trying to formed their own parties. No one knows if they'll cross the threshold. No one knows if what will happen. And they're trying. And then they might merge to make sure that cross the threshold. And then they're also the Democratic parties, which is mainly the Democrats. It's called the Democratic Party. That's a new party that was formed from a few other parties. And then there's the liquid that almost all of the seeds used to be by primaries. And now Netanyahu is there's a big big campaign going on within the liquid that he wants more seeds that he can decide on his own like the heads of many other parties. And then there's several parties that have but that but that's basically that's what's going on now. So the threshold used used to be so much lower. Okay. And why does that matter? It matters because when you want to start a new party, the threshold now is 200,000 votes. That's a very high number. Okay. Like I run an organization that helps reservist families. Okay. In Israel, they're nearly 400,000 reservists. Like just to give you like to understand what a large percentage is to have 200,000 people vote for you. And otherwise all the votes just you know you just lose them all. So this is a big thing. Wow. The past the threat. Yeah. They're they're just gone. And the past meaning that you can't like you can't be like, Hey, no number like, you know, you don't like get to use that currency elsewhere. But like that's my my number one pick is Lee Kud. My number two pick is labor. No. And you can't say my number one is whatever Giladir Dan that's trying to start his form his own party. And if you if if he doesn't cross the threshold, so we'll give it to the Lee Kud. You can do that. Okay. You that's it. And so people are afraid they're votes. They lose their votes. Their votes will be thrown like to the garbage. That's okay. So that's why it's very important. And when threshold was lower, so it meant that that new parties could merge. And why is it so important in this specific these specific elections? We are we are after almost three years of war. Okay. And the elections would be after three years of war. We're in a situation that there is a lot of the relationship between Israeli society and Israeli politics is very messy. There isn't much trust. Israeli society doesn't have much trust in Israeli politics. And this should have been a moment where new politicians would rise. But it's very hard for new politicians to rise. And you see that most of the politicians that are in power are those that were in power before the threshold was, you know, was up. So that's a big thing. Because the threshold is so high, chances are that only if you are in power, you'll be able to stay in power as a party. Yeah. That's that's a part of the system that thank you so much for explaining that they think many of us are confused about. So let's let's go into the fact that no party as I understand it. Well, no party is ever one outright. It's never been the case that any party has ever won a majority in Israel's history. And to win a majority, that means 61 of 120 seats. Why not? Why has it been the case that nobody has ever done this? And I know that in 1969, Hama Arach, meaning the alignment, was the closest ever to doing this. They had 56 seats led by Goldemeer. Goldemeer almost first time a party would ever have a majority in Israel's history, right? But that still never happened. And never happened. Why not? And walk me through what happens instead. Okay. So first of all, I think one of the reasons it doesn't happen is because that Israel is formed of many different groups that are used to have their own parties. Okay. But we have the ultra orthodox parties, which are the ultra orthodox that are mainly like 13% of Israeli society. But because that their percentage of voting is very high. So their parties are usually a little more than their percentage in Israeli society. So this is like, if you imagine like 15% of the votes are ultra orthodox. Okay. And then you also have the Arab society that also usually vote for Arab parties. Okay. So then they also, they're 20% of Israeli 22% of Israeli society. So they're they usually vote less than their their percentage in the society. So then you also have you know, I don't know 15 15 seats that are that are Arab between 10 and 15. It depends, it depends what happens. So you have these two groups that always vote or almost always vote to their parties. And that's why the large parties first of all will never have the majority. And then you add also, it's religious Zionist in English, but they don't necessarily Rahal, right? They don't necessarily represent all religious Zionists. No, no. But in the past, in the past, it was more of a party like my parents always voted. I come from right-wing hand right-wing house. My parents always voted one voted for the Likud and one voted for the for the Muftar which was the party of the the religious. National religious, yeah. Yeah. So like, you know, and and that is something they said we're voting for the Likud so that have the majority and you know, they'd be able to form the coalition. We're voting for the Muftar or for the religious Zionist because they will take care of our schools. That was and Israelis are used to thinking that way. Like it makes a lot of sense that the that couples will speak between themselves and vote one for this and one for that. And that's something that I don't think Americans can imagine that because it's very it's very different. But when you when there are few agendas that are important to you and there's one party that leads this agenda and one party that leads more of this agenda. I was a member when I was a member of the parliament. I was in the party that did a lot of work regarding social and economical issues and we knew that a lot of our vote a lot of the people that voted for us often in the family that say, you know, okay, I'll vote one would vote for like for a large party. One vote for one would vote for our party because we're more of, you know, the social social aspect and not necessarily like the the security aspect or something like that. So and that's something that Israelis are used to doing. Does this lead to I want you to help me make an argument for two things right now as you're speaking. I'm American, right? So like I'm I come from this is the only world that I know in terms of politics from, you know, voting and living. But in America, make an argument why the American system is better and make an argument why the Israeli system is better. I think what's good about the American system is that you have some sense of stability. Okay. Once your government is sworn in once it's, you know, elected and it's there, it will be there for its term. Four years. No matter what, it's there. Okay. And you can get upset you whatever, but you have time as, you know, members of Congress. So you have time to work in Israel when I was elected into the parliament. I never knew how long my term was. So at the beginning, I was working like crazy. Every legislation I wanted to pass. I was working. I was afraid that we will fall apart. And I was just, you know, I was running like marathon. But how do you say sprint? Yeah. Marathon of sprints like every time I was so afraid with that. And every time I was like, no, I have to pass it now. No, no, no. And you don't have one moment that you could and you can't even plan your term. You can't plan. And then all the time, everyone is busy doing politics because you don't even have one minute that you can let go because the elections could be tomorrow. The elections could be next week. The elections could be next month. So you can't, you can't like, you know, it can kind of be fits the Israeli culture to an extent also. There's a, you know, we love it. We love it. Go, go, go, go, urgent, urgent, urgent, go, go, go, go. It's very much. But so I think the American system gives that sense of stability. I think what's good about the Israeli system is that it gives you an opportunity to like different aspects of your of your identity. And I think that what we see like now in the United States that you have to, you have to choose what side you're like vote for one. And if you vote for Democrats, it's a set of several ideologies that some of them you agree with and some of them you don't. That you can be very pro Israel and you can be pro choice. And there's nowhere you can be like both of them. You're laughing. But to ask Israel, it's very clear that you would never have that situation that you know, to be very right. Even if you're very right wing, you will have an opportunity to also be a feminist. Like this is something that we can't, we don't get it. And because we have, we have explained that. Rechelle explain that. So you could be a right wing on security issues. But very left wing on economic issues and on social issues. Could you explain that? So I was a member of that party like that. What was it called? It was called Kulano. Right. Okay. We had, I'm very feminist. And in social issues, I'm like, you know, very, whatever center center left, whatever. And in security, I'm center right. And it was very clear to us. And we knew what we're voting and everything was okay. It worked. We knew what we're doing. And you don't need to, because it's not only two parties, you don't need to choose in like this weird, like it's almost enmeshed. Kind of, you know, Like, okay, so the pro-Palestinians are like very much part of the Democratic Party, so you're just stuck with them and what do you do? And in Israel, people say that it might work better, it will give stability if we'll have a two-party system, but then usually would mean that the right wing would be very ultra-orthodox, because you know, the ultra-orthodox usually go with the right wing. And then the whole party would be more ultra-orthodox and you can be very feminist. And then, you know, you can't be very liberal in everything that has to do with state and religion. And we know that Israelis are much more, like, you know, I don't want to say sophisticated, because Americans are very sophisticated, but I think we can bring our complex ideas into Israeli democracy and into our political system. And let's go into the one of the quirks of the Israeli political system. 2021, Naftali Bennett's party, Yamina, there are 120 seats. It won seven seats, which is around 6% of the vote. Likud 130, but Naftali Bennett became the kingmaker, ultimately, and became the prime minister under this rotation agreement between him and Yair Lapid. Yeah, I'm a feat. Could you share personal reflections about this one? You just left politics a year or two before this, so what was your personal reflection on that? Well, first of all, it was after a few elections, time after time, you know, not being able to form a coalition and everything just got very, very messy. I think at that point, everyone, you know, a lot of people, I don't want to say everyone, I think that Likud was upset, but I think a lot of people are just happy that there's some kind of coalition, something like something that will work, because if you go back to elections again and again, you don't have a budget properly, and all the budgets, we call it a 12th, okay? You do like, you know, you take the budget of the year before and you do one of 12, like for every month, and you can't push through with anything, like everything is just, you just freeze. So I think in that sense, people were happy that at least something is happening, but that is, that is like one of the extreme moments of Israeli politics, usually it doesn't work that way. I think, you know, I don't know what it would mean, like it's hard to tell, time will tell, how it will affect Israeli politics in the long run. It could affect Israeli politics, and we might see some form of legislation that trying to make sure that this can't happen again, because basically what happens is it means that a party that could go either to one side or the other side, once it chooses one side, it has a lot of power, because if it doesn't join, because it's not 100% in that side, so it becomes the kingmaker, and then they can become the king. The kingmaker became the king, yeah. It's wild, and like I edit, but it's like, it feels like to me, and I'm being editorial right now, that feels more like a bug and not a feature in the design, right? So yeah, so I'll say, I'll say you have your challenges in your system. We have so many challenges in our system now, like just the fact that almost all the politicians are the old politicians, I want to say just, just like to give you a glimpse into how unbelievable it is, because after October 7th, people in Israel, I don't know, I don't know, very high percentage of Israeli society, they said, you know, other 120 members of Israeli parliament have to resign, we have to bring 120 new people into the system, the system is broken, whatever, whatever, and then the same leaders are there, so we will have new members of parliament, because the liquid will have less power, and Eisencoot will have more power, whatever, but it is something about the inability to bring any change into the system, so that's like one problem that we have in our system, another problem is what you're saying about how to form a coalition, and also inability to form a coalition, okay? That's what we saw now, that we had again and again elections, and everyone knows that this might happen this time again, we might have several elections, and you know, all the American Israelis that are coming flying into Israel, I don't know if they hear us now, if you saved money for the ticket, save money for a few more tickets, because you might, if you have occasion days that you're using, safe occasion days, you might have to go back and forth three times, we don't know, maybe we'll be over, maybe these elections will, you know, something will happen and whatever, and I also say that part of it is that the right wing, they don't need to win the elections to stay in power from election to election, you understand that? We'll explain that. Okay, so to form a government, you need to have 61 votes, okay? The right wing, now if none of the both sides, they don't get 61 votes, so the right wing that isn't power now just stays in power in the meantime, okay? And so, and that's why you can have again and again elections, the center left have to have 61 votes to get the right wing out of power. So, when you say, when you say the right wing, I need to pause you on that. What does right wing mean in Israel? Like what, like what is that? And we use that all the time when we're talking about the history of Israel, the right wing versus the left wing, but, but at one point in time in Israeli history, it meant socialist versus capitalist, right? And one, at one point in time, left wing versus right wing meant land for peace versus versus not land for peace. Yeah. What does that mean? Now, now I understand left wing versus right wing to mean anti-baby, pro-baby. What, so what does it mean? What does leftist right mean? So, it could be, I mean, that is one segment of the right wing left wing, that's very interesting to hear you talking about. Yeah, but I think it's also the relationship with the old orthodox. Like, if you ask, what is the issue that is tearing Israeli society? Is it what's happening with the old orthodox? I'm reminding you we're after three years of very, very hard war. I mean, it's really, I can't say how I'm sure if you listen to this podcast so you know how-- No, but why is it so hard? Why is it so hard? Three years later. Three years later. Thousands of people that were killed, okay? If you're not orthodox or Arab, you know, like, I can't tell you how many of my friends lost their kids. We're talking about families' reservists that are in duty for hundreds of years, hundreds of days. This year, 2026, they're going to have to do 90 days, 90 days in combat and not being at home. Like, that's mind-blowing. 90-- that's three months. Three months of being out of work. Three, like, not being at work, not running your business. Three months a year, not being with your kids, not being with your family. Like, just-- and it's the third year. It's after three years already, okay? This is very-- this is a huge burden on Israeli society. And I think that there was this kind of thought or understanding, or we imagined that when things will get tough, the old orthodox will join the Israeli army. The old orthodox don't do army service in Israel. This is something that started when the state of Israel was born. There were 400 old orthodox that sat down and studied. Instead of joining the army, Ben Gullion gave that agreement. When when Menachem Begin got into power in 1977, he said there's no more quota of 400, whoever studies, while you study, you don't join army. Once you want to go out to the working force, you join the army. What happened today is that we have hundreds of thousands of old orthodox men that don't study. They usually often, they don't work or they work like without, you know, kind of black market. And they just don't join army. And they're saying we'll never join army. Like, I talked to old orthodox last week, a friend of mine, someone from my family, and I told him, listen, what would you tell the the reservists? They're giving 90 days that. It's already after three years. It is so hard. And he said, we're not joining the army. If they don't want to do their reserve duty, they won't do the reserve duty. It has nothing to do with us. I think this is something that is very hard for Israelis to hear. And the right wing is hugging the the old orthodox because they're giving them the power. That's the government we've had now for the past four years during this variant and Zavur. So this is one issue. I think there is. So on that issue, on that issue, it's like, if I was just an alien coming in from out of space and I came down, I would not have put the ultra orthodox in the religious nationalist group. Like, if I just were to see that, I'd be like, wait, no, that doesn't make any sense. Like from a coalition perspective, I'd be like, well, if the national religious group is out disproportionately serving in the Israeli army. And their whole ideology is about nationalism, religious nationalism, there's religious value to the creation of a nation state, building a nation state, which requires service, which requires activism, which requires going to the army. And not just being in the army of a being in infantry units, not just infantry units, but being in elite infantry units. I would not have I would say that those are two strange bedfellows, I would say. So so that is so that I'm just putting a pin in that because they don't seem like natural allies. And you're saying that they the ultra orthodox The Khareedim, as it's called in Hebrew in Israel, are actually essential in this election. Yes. I think that a lot of the religious Zionists are having a hard time with this relationship with the old orthodox, but the issue of the old orthodox is a huge segment, but it's not the only one. I think that the question, you know, the right wing left wing kind of more security issue is still an issue, and the old orthodox say we will let the right wing do whatever they believe as far as, you know, as far as security, and they give like a carte blanche. So that's one thing, and also there is an issue, you know, people don't know. I think it also goes back to history, like the near history, but what happened with Ariel Sharon, that he was when he was a when he was prime minister, what happened that we left the Gaza Strip, even though when he was elected, he was elected like right wing, but then when he did that, I think this is something that since then a lot of the religious Zionists that are many of them live in Judea and Samaria, this is, this is a big issue, like this is a fear that one day they'll be evacuated from their homes. So joining forces with the old orthodox gives a lot, you know, says at least they'll have their home. I personally, I think that the center should say everything that has to do with evacuating knows something that will be brought to, you know, to democratic poll and any decision will be made in that way, and I think that would let go a lot of the fear, but that's my suggestion. We pointed to one issue, which is the one, one segments I should say of Israeli society, which is the Khairidim old orthodox, but you also mentioned Arab society, which is roughly 22% of the state of Israel. And I want to, I want to speak to this issue, one of the things that we hear across the world is that, you know, Israel is a democracy, and one of the things that makes Israel a democracy is the very fact that Arab citizens of Israel serve in Israel's parliament, they serve in the Israeli Knesset, but there's a question underneath all of it that I don't think we speak about enough, or I don't think we understand enough, is that our parties may be in the government, but they're rarely, if ever in the ruling government, they're rarely, if ever in the coalition that is part of decision making. So first of all, I want you to check me on that historically, is that right that that Arab parties are not really ever in the ruling government, they're just sitting in parliament on the opposition, or is there more to the story? What is the real story around Arab citizens in the Israeli Knesset? Okay, so I want to go back to 1949, I just, I love the story, okay, 1949, it's during the Israeli war of independence, the war isn't over yet. Government that was at the time come to Bengalune and say we need to have elections, okay, you know, I think a lot of people who are afraid that Israel would not be a democracy, that you know, because it's during war, the elections will be postponed, and by the onset of course we'll have elections, they stop everything and they hold elections, and this is during war, and why is it so important that to say, to say that it was during the war of independence? Because in the war of independence there were armies that fought against the state of Israel, but there were also citizens, like citizens to be of Israel, Arab citizens that were fighting against Israel, and suddenly they said okay, we're taking a pause in the war, go vote, and then we can continue, and the Arabs voted, which is, again, to me it's mind blowing, okay, Israel is one of the only countries in the world where no one ever had to demonstrate to get the right to vote, okay, minorities, women's rights, everyone had the right to vote from day one, so once the elections are over, Bengalyon gets very nervous, and he's like, oh my god, what do we do? We have members of the parliament that are, you know, Arabs that are some of them are against our country, okay, like they're fighting us, maybe their relatives are fighting us, and then he tries to bring these, you know, to bring the Shabbat, the Sheenbet, the FBI. Yeah, there's really FBI. And to the parliament to follow these members of parliament, the Arab members of parliament is worried about them, and Springtzak, that he was their chairperson of the parliament, says no, that's not going to happen, the army isn't going to come into the parliament, the Shabbat isn't going to go, the police isn't going to go into the parliament, and in Israel, there's a special force, law force, you know, like with weapons and everything, like kind of a police that is special for our parliament, okay, and that's what, and no one can come in with weapons, it is something that's very deeply democratic in our society, and one of the reasons is because of this weird first elections that we had, you know, how do we make sure, like, how do we deal with the situation, and I want to say two things, one, first of all, it's true that Arab parties weren't part, or rarely are part of the government, okay, they are, but they rarely are, there are often Arab members of non-Arab parties that are part of the government, okay, that happens more often, yeah, if it's an Arab party, that is something that I think Israeli society is still kind of negotiating, and I think a lot of the negotiation has to do with that first story I told you about the Arab parties when the state of Israel was born. I think there is like this internal discussion also amongst the Arabs, and also amongst the Jews, and also amongst the entire state of Israel, like, are the Arabs, do they want to be part of Israeli, the state of Israel as a Jewish democratic state, like, do they see themselves citizens, not only because they happen to be here, but they feel part of the story, and they want to be part of the story, I think that that's what we see now with Mansour Abbas, that he says, yes, we're part of the story, we don't want to be like a position to the story, we're part of the Israeli story, and then they want to be part of the government, and they want to serve in the government, and they want to take responsibility to what's happening in Israel. Amongst the Arab parties in the past, we have, and also today, we have members of the Arab parties that say we feel much closer to the Palestinians, like, we're part of the Israeli parliament, but we see ourselves as Palestinians, and then usually they're not part of the government, like, they don't want to be part of the government, and also, you know, so if you're part of the government, you decide on security issues, you decide on the army, like, it's very, this is like a challenging, it is a challenge, and I think that this is something that's being negotiated, like, amongst everyone in the Israeli society, and I think that we're going to see when a verge of a change, I'm Mansour Abbas is a very brave politician, very brave leader, not only pantheon, very brave leader, and I think he's leading, like, some of the Arab Israeli society to be much more part of Israeli society, but I can say that this is something that we see not only politically, but also, like, within Israeli society, like Arabs that feel part of the big story of the state of Israel. So I want to make two arguments, one for one against, so let me make an argument against including Arab parties in the government, the argument for that would be saying that a governing coalition has to share responsibility for the state's core interests, which includes security, like you're saying, as a Jewish state. And some Arab parties reject designism, which you haven't even explicitly said, but they reject Zionism, or they oppose defining Israel as a Jewish state, so that would make it very difficult to your story of 1949 to build trust on issues such as national security, military operations, or other broader questions. So that would be one, that would be the argument against including Arab parties in the coalition of the government, not in the government itself, but in the coalition. The argument for including Arab parties in the government is that Israel is both Jewish and democratic, and roughly 20% or 22% like you said, are Arab, and if Arab citizens are expected to participate in elections by paying taxes, contributing to society, then they should also have a pathway to participate in governing. And in 2021, Raham, which is led by Monsor Abbas, was part of the Bennett-Lapid coalition, and they participated in governing and focusing on domestic priorities. So those are the two different perspectives that I just wanted to lay out. And like you said, it's not that an Arab citizen of Israel cannot be part of the Israeli government, there are, and they often are, but they are not, the parties historically outside of 2021 have never been part of the ruling coalition. And I'm wondering from your perspective, do you see a future in which Raham and people like Monsor Abbas will say we are committed to the flourishing of a Jewish democratic state, and we are going to be part of the ruling coalition because they will be trusted. Now, the one question mark that I have on that on top of the question is, wait a second, you just made an argument, Rachel, that the Khairidim, the ultra-orthodox are not part of the Israeli army, which creates a burden on Israeli society to be in reserve to spend 90 days a year in it. That's very hard. But what about Arab society? Why is Arab society not part of the Israeli army? What do you think about the intersection of all of that? Yeah, so I want to say a few things. First of all, could the future be different? I think it could. I think it definitely could. I think that, as I said, I think that this is something that's being negotiated amongst the Israeli Arabs and amongst the entire Israeli society, Israeli Jews. We're left with, I think this is something that we're kind of tapping into. And I can say that also in the parliament, not only in the government, also in the parliament, so the defense committee. I was a member of the defense committee. And there the Arab representatives are not part of the defense committee. I don't think it was ever declared. It's not legal issue, but they're not part of this committee because it's a committee that discusses everything that has to do with defense. It's part of the challenge that Arab citizens of Israel are the same exact people as the Palestinians. They're the same cousins. They have the same families, same origin. Some of them either were expelled or fled in 1948 and some of them stayed. And the feeling is from these people that our cousins, our brothers, our sisters, our relatives are the enemies, not the people necessarily, but the governing structures in these places in the West Bank in Judea, Samaria, in Gaza. The feeling is, we don't have full trust because your cousins are the ones at war with us. Is that part of it? Yeah, it's part of it. I also remind that we had the member of Israeli parliament, Asmi Pshara, that he fled Israel because it was suspected that he is a spy. I don't tell me more about this. Asmi Pshara. He was a member of Israeli parliament. And everyone knew him and then one day he disappeared and there was this whole thing that they said that they were, they realized that he was gathering information and giving it to other countries. You know, he never went into trial because he just fled the country. He doesn't live in Israel anymore. So we don't know exactly what that but we know he fled the country. So there's fear on that. We don't know. Yeah. And like, so this is something that's, it's always there in a sense. But I think that this is something that, you know, we need to deal with. And I'll also say that I think there's, there are different segments of Israeli Arabs. And that's also something we need to talk about. Like the Bedouins are different than the Muslims that are different than the Christians. I will say that the Druze are, they serve in Israeli, in Israeli army. And they're very much part of the coalition and the government and everything. So it's not about being a Jew or non-Jew. It's about how, how much do you feel part of Israeli government, society, Jewish democratic country? Like that is the big question. So the Druze are in. The Christians also usually feel very close to Israeli society. What I'm doing now is horrible because I'm like, you know, you're painting with a wide brush. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I know. So I just want to say that the Bedouins used to be part of, they used to serve in the Israeli army for many years, many years. Some do still. And Mansour Abbas, a lot of his, a lot of his voters come from the Bedouins. You know, the Bedouins Arab society. And I think they feel closer in a way to Israeli society. So I think this is something that we're trying to kind of figure out. And we know that also when the state of Israel was born, there were different segments of the, what we call, you know, Arab Israeli society. And they were part that, part that felt more part of Israeli society and part that felt less. And I think that once you feel part of Israeli society, so it, also you're not afraid to be part of the government because you won't be considered a traitor. Like I think that there are members of the Arab parties that don't want to be part like they will be the Palestinians will see them traitors. And so it's, it's complicated. So you've explained a lot about how we got to where we are now. I want to ask one more question just to have a little bit more clarity on the actual system. Then I want to go to a little bit about the future. But this system, so could you explain, you started talking about it before, but I want to understand it better. Why does a party with three or five people in the government? You can't have three. Okay. What's the minimum? Okay. Four. Okay. Okay. Four. Sorry. That makes it even crazier than I've told you better. It was prime minister was seven seats. That's even crazier. But so let's say you have four or five or six seats. Why, and besides being a kingmaker, why did they have such authority? Walk me through that a little more. Why do the ministers have a big day? No, why does someone who only has five seats? Why do they have a big portfolio potentially? Can you give me examples of that? Yeah. So that's that's the art of negotiation. I'm smiling because it doesn't really make sense, but that's just the way it is. I'll also say that I think that our our like our system is broken in many ways. And one of the ways that the system is broken is that Netanyahu doesn't want to give a lot of power to the members of his party because then they might get stronger and they might take over heading the party. So what they do is affin Netanyahu gives members of his party like the the portfolios that they're not interested in. So, you know, so they won't excel in them. Well, wait, wait, this isn't the weeds right now. Well, I don't explain what you're saying. I'm not following. I'm not following. Okay. So this is like this is like that. This is like real politics. You're really catching the politics. Okay. So if you have a member of the liquid that really wants to be the the minister of defense. Okay. And there's also very talented in it. So Netanyahu usually won't want to give it to him because he doesn't want to make him very noticeable. Like if you think of Galant that he wanted the ministry of defense and he knew it and he wanted to think about his pro like public profile. If you compare him to Israel cuts that he doesn't come from the field and he doesn't have any public profile. So you're saying so you're saying you're saying Benjamin Netanyahu will elevate the profile of an Israel cats who is less threatening to him than somebody like a Yov Galan. Yeah. And not only elevate he will give him a ministry that is that and are you stating an opinion or giving me a fact? Look at that. I say I'm saying an opinion that is I've been watching it for a long time and I just got time after time happening. Fair enough. And I also want to say that's one of the reasons that Netanyahu is very close to the ultra orthodox because the ultra orthodox declare they don't want to be prime minister. Okay. Which is like another part of this. Okay. He has 15 or whatever 15 17 mandates that the people that head that don't want to be prime minister think of Nafthali Bennett. Nafthali Bennett worked for Netanyahu. Then he started a party or he joined a party and then started by whatever Nafthali Bennett was in many parties. But he wants to be the prime minister. And that's why he would always have like it's always threatening for Netanyahu. So one of the reasons Netanyahu keeps the ultra orthodox very close to him is because it gives him 17 or 15 mandates like a lot of mandates with no threat of be wanting to be the prime minister. So and this is something I heard from Netanyahu's people. Okay. So it's not only an opinion. It is it's just the way politics work and you know everyone when you're in politics one of you know you also want to you know you do your role or it's you're supposed to do your role as prime minister as as minister as mk whatever. But you're also always watching who's your competition and how do you make sure you'll be reelected. So because also our system is not organized like your systems. Do you two terms on your hand? That's it. Here it's everyone is always doing politics. You don't know when the elections will be. You can be reelected again and again. And and a small party can suddenly become a prime minister and a large party can say nothing makes sense. Okay. I have two questions on this. We actually spent I'm impressed with us. We spent a lot of the time speaking about the the history of the Israeli government and the way it works without talking about BB. But I want to ask a I want to ask a question on BB. Do you think I'm bringing my American perspective into this? Do you think it's possible that people like Zara and Mamdani and El Sayed in in Michigan? Do you think they're actually helping BB Netanyahu? Oh my god. Like ironically they're like they're meaning their opposition and demonization of him actually is going to be utilized by him and his and and Israelis in general to bolstered. So I think in the past I would tell you that this is a lot of like Netanyahu's politics okay to like to find the demon and say I will protect you from the demon. I think it's getting at this point it's a little more challenging because I think he always like because of his beautiful English and because of you know his like he knows how to speak to Americans I think that's something that is very high profile like in his like it's like it's a big thing like who he is so I think that now it could be a challenge for him like I think it would be I don't think he would use Mamdani to prove that he is you know he should be reelected. I do think that when Mamdani goes against Netanyahu you know I don't think it's like I think it elevates Mamdani and I like it doesn't weaken Netanyahu I don't think it weakens Netanyahu but I like I see what you're saying I think they're like two parts to it so if in the past it would just elevate him now I think they're two parts to it. The other the other the feminist part of me wants to just give a little editorial also that says hey this sounds a lot like fragile male egos not knowing how to deal with with issues and if maybe if a few more women were in charge is it possible that a lot of these issues will would be cast to the side. Well listen I was in a term this is like these are like my this is a sad moment okay I was in a term that we were over 30 30 women members of Israeli parliament 35 I don't remember the number we were a lot and there was a lot of women power like girl power in the parliament we stuck together no we did a lot of work it was pretty amazing yeah what we got done and we cooperated and I like the the older I was a new mk I was for one term and like the older women they protected me when like someone said something that wasn't appropriate like immediately older you know you all talk to the way yeah it was it was very empowering and pretty amazing we see the price of the fact that there are less women and even when there are women you don't have women heads of parties when I was in the parliament there were women's that were heads of parties or former heads of parties like very very strong women today the women are they don't head the parties it's like it's a different kind of story and that is a very there is a price that we're paying there's a toe that we're paying as society with this I think that like this has to like from the Jewish perspective right and they bear a sheet it says that the God in Genesis yeah God created men and women like it's in you know this this is the way the world is supposed to be we're supposed to work together unfortunately when it doesn't when it doesn't work that way there is a price that we pay yeah I hope there'll be more women in the future all right so let me ask you maybe this is a concluding question based on everything we've we've spoken about based on the various factors of the ultra orthodox in this the Arab citizens of Israel the the right the left I still don't have full clarity on what the divide right now is outside of what it sounds to me as being protecting it sounds to me like the vast majority of Israeli society has is on the same page with regard to security at but maybe I'm wrong about that I want to know what the real divide is what is the real divide and what you think is going to be what everyone should be paying attention to as this government forms okay so I think the real divide are the ultra orthodox that's the biggest issue that's the like the most painful issue I said that there's another divide or like the could you say more about that because if someone like I have a lot of listeners from across the political divide who might be very much so maybe they're clarity maybe they're ultra orthodox so what do you mean that they're the divide oh the divide is they need to join the army we need that we need them to join the army that's the game over and they and they would say they don't need right I'm saying the divide is they you say they need to join the army they say they don't need to join the army then they can study Torah and that's that's of equal value you're saying that's the divide right listen I I mean I I understand that you want to be like a moderator and kind of give a very and that but I want to I want to present their I want to present their perspective at the very last the their perspective is basically saying it's not saying it's equal they're saying we don't you know we're not going to join the army we don't care what you're saying you know we're going to study Torah and if you don't want to if you don't want to join the army don't join the army we're not coming but that's what they're saying now and they're saying it loud and clear like I know it's very harsh to hear that but they're saying it loud and clear we're not joining the army period we know that we can't continue like this is not going to work and before October 7th and every given moment there were three thousand to five thousand reservists on duty now we have between fifty thousand to eighty thousand reservists on duty and every given moment like this is the game changer of October 7th is so huge like the the the the reservists that we need in Lebanon and in Syria and Sudan Samaria and Azerbaijan everywhere we need soldiers we need manpower so so that's the divide that's the divide as you see I think that's a major divide yeah and also say I I run a organ for reservist families like this is what we do this is what I've been into the past which is by the way a party in the Israeli government that might become no no there is no there is a party yeah the reservists yeah that's you as henna started a party but that's going back remember going back to what I said the threshold is so high yeah that it's very difficult for new parties to be formed and to start like moving something because of like the red hell is it possible that the reservist party might join the ultra orthodox parties in ruling coalition I don't take so no but it's possible right listen everything is possible which would be which as an American would be like I don't understand what's happening well also as early as well to understand what's happening they would use their credibility so quickly no really I think listen I don't know maybe I don't you know I think I understand this really society pretty well I think there is so much credibility very quickly I don't think they would do that it wouldn't be worth it there it wouldn't be worth it for them to do it I would be very surpassed here them do that unless the ultra orthodox parties say yes we'll sit together but we will join the army if they say that so hey you know I'm happy for them to be part of the government of course you know it's not it's not personal it's just we need to get make this happen I think the right wing would say that a major issue is what happens with the Arabs like does the does the center left a coalition does it lean on the Arab parties now here's something interesting that's happening that we didn't talk about is that you have sigalovic that he was a very very high ranked in the in the police very high ranked in the police he's probably joining Mansoor Abbas's party which is an Arab party which is interesting because usually you have like Jews joining sorry Arabs joining Jewish part like parties and he's clearly a Zionist you're saying he's yeah oh yeah he's full yeah full power Zionist and he's probably we don't know I know it's being negotiated but if he joins that party so that's another step that Mansoor Abbas is doing walking towards like Israeli society and being part of like the Jewish democratic story got it okay so so so that's something to look for to look to anything else that we should all be strategically be paying attention to two months from now I mean I won't ask for a prediction but is it going to be Eisenkaught is it going to be be be is it going to be who's it going to like what's the strategy we should be paying attention to because you started giving us the history of like the different coalition the different parties coming together vying for power coming together like what should we looking to first of all what I said that the right wing don't need to win they just need not to lose like that's a big that's that's a big issue when you're trying to understand what's going to happen when when you look at the polls you need to count how many votes you have that can actually form a government okay so what the right wing did for many years is like you know are the arrows part of the coalition aren't they part of the coalition you're going to have parties that are part that could be part of the Eisenkaught whatever if it will be probably will be the leader at least by the polls and also by Israeli history I'll go back to that in a minute you will have parties that will say I want to join Eisenkaught but I have a hard time if he's leaning on the Arab parties like if they're not willing to you know so this is this will be an issue that we're going to see in the next few months we we could have several elections I started by saying that you have money for tickets same time maybe we won't you know really it's very hard to understand what will happen and also I want to say that we might see a growth in the number of Arab Israelis that vote vote, and then all of the polls that we see are irrelevant because like you know how there are always groups that it's hard to predict their behavior, so the Arabs are group that it's hard to predict their behavior, and if actually the percentage of their vote will be higher, that means that everyone else will have less mandates, and if you're trying to form a coalition that doesn't lean dramatically on the Arab party, so it will be even harder to understand, so like there are a lot of, it's really hard to tell. Can Montsoirbus become a kingmaker and therefore the prime minister? First of all, I say Montsoirbus is wise enough not to become the prime minister with a smart party. But theoretically. It can't be. No, I'll tell you why it can't be because he can't be the one that says you know I'll go either with them or with them. The only reason Bennett could do that is because that both sides were hoping that you will join them. Got it. Who the one that could do that, by the way, is Lieberman. Say, say, say, word about Lieberman Lieberman, Lieberman, Lieberman, Lieberman. Let me tell you why it's confusing first, in the in the early aughts, a victor Lieberman was viewed as an extreme right wing politician. Oh, tell me about it. And now he's being viewed as the virus center, center, center left, explain, explain that to me. I know we have to go. But give me this last explanation. Yeah. A victor Lieberman, I can tell you that when he when I was in the coalition and the government and he joined our coalition, there were left wing people that wrote to me, how can you sit with them? Me is, you know, he's the radical right wing, whatever. And I was like, you know, it's okay, we can, you know, we got this. It would be okay. It would be okay. Yeah, whatever. So and today they love him, which is interesting how politics, you know, play, play out. But Lieberman, he's, he, he made Aliya from the USSR, so he's like, Russian considered. And he had a party that was a very kind of Russian party. I want to remind you to a million Jews made Aliya from the USSR, immigrated from the USSR. So that was the beginning. That was his party. Today he's like this very liberal, like, you know, a LGBTQ, you know, fighting against all orthodox, whatever, like against religion and, you know, very harsh religion in the state and whatever. And at the same time, he's a right wing, he's very seriously right wing. So that's Lieberman? Seriously right wing on, on national security. National security? Yes. Seriously right wing and national security. Yes. So he's again, he's like this very liberal and very, and very like security right wing, which is, and that's a blend we have in Israel. Right. Right. Right. Which in the US is just, we don't, it's not the same. It's, you can't, it's, yeah, it's different. It's just different. It's different. He could be the king maker. It might happen. We don't know. Rachel, I want to thank you so much for explaining such a, just a, for me, like you really helped me walk through both how the Israeli political system works and also what we should be paying attention to today. So a huge thank you to you, Rachel, for joining us unpacking Israeli history as a production of unpacked and open door media brand follow us wherever you get your podcasts. If you enjoyed this episode, leave us a rating on Apple or Spotify. It really helps other people find our show and one more time. You know, I love hearing from you. So email me at [email protected]. This episode was produced by Rift Gees Stern. Our team for this episode includes Jenny Falcon, Andrew Miller, Rob Perra, and Ari Schlacht. I'm your host, Noam Weissman. Thanks for being here. See you next week.