Why is Lebanon such a central issue to Iran?

Lebanon under Israeli attack, while diplomatic efforts continue to end the war in Iran. And with Israel escalating attacks in his belly, Tehran wants any peace deal to cover both conflicts. So why is Iran making Lebanon a central issue in its own war? This is Inside Story. Hello and welcome to the program. I'm Mohammad Jumjul. Iran says any lasting ceasefire agreement with the U.S. must include an end to Israel's attacks on southern Lebanon. Iranian officials have threatened to leave the peace process altogether. If Israel does not stop its strikes against Hezbollah. The ultimatum came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans on Monday to again attack Beirut's southern suburbs. Instead, he got attacked by U.S. President Donald Trump. Back he down after a barrage of strong language during an apparently heated phone call with President Trump, according to U.S. reports. The conflicts in Iran and Lebanon are intertwined, not least with Israel involved in both. For Hezbollah, the group remains a potent force, despite a number of assassinations, losing an ally in Syria and a weakened Iran. So how is Hezbollah facing its recent setbacks and how important is Iran's support? What are the implications for Lebanon's future? We'll put these questions to our guest shortly, but first, this report from Alexander Biers. As the U.S. President continues to say he's optimistic about a deal with Iran, Tehran is threatening to suspend those talks entirely because of Israel's escalating attacks on Lebanon. On Monday, multiple posts by multiple officials. The Iranian Speaker of Parliament emphasized that if Israel continues to attack Lebanon, Iran will not only halt the dialogue process, it will stand firmly against Israel. And the Iranian Foreign Minister said, "The ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Its violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts." The U.S. has been trying to separate the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon from that with Iran. But there's no separating the two. Lebanon was drawn into the war when Hezbollah launched renewed strikes on Israel at the beginning of March. Retaliation it said for the U.S. Israeli strike that killed the Iranian Supreme Leader. "This war was imposed on us. This war was not chosen by Lebanon." Hezbollah has been a dominant force in Lebanon for decades. It's a political and armed movement, backed by Iran, operating as both a political party and a military force. Many people say it acts as a state within a state. It was founded in 1982 in response to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and in coordination with Iran's IRGC. It fought a prolonged conflict with Israel and declared victory in 2000 after Israeli forces withdrew from southern Lebanon. But fighting has continued to flare up, including a five-week war in 2006 and a campaign of rocket attacks after Israel launched its genocide in Gaza in 2023. Israel considers Hezbollah an immediate threat that must be disarmed. It's using that to justify its deepening invasion of southern Lebanon. Israel and Lebanon reached a ceasefire in mid-April with Washington sponsoring talks. But Israel is continuing a near-daily campaign of strikes and widespread demolitions of towns and villages, seizing the most territory in Lebanon in nearly three decades, killing more than 3,000 people and forcing 1.2 million others from their homes since March. But Hezbollah's attacks have continued to two, and Lebanon's Prime Minister says the group is being commanded by Iran. Those who launched drones to Cyprus was that Hezbollah? No. That was the revolutionary guard, which is present and unfortunately is managing the military operation in Lebanon. The UN Security Council held an emergency session on Lebanon on Monday, where the Lebanese Ambassador urged the council to condemn Israel's invasion and occupation. But the United States put the blame on Iran instead. The peace of path is clear. Hezbollah stops attacking Israel, the Lebanese armed forces and the legitimate government of Lebanon assert control over Lebanese territory. And Iran stops using Lebanon as a forward operating base. And the Lebanese people who have suffered for far too long finally get a chance to rebuild a country that belongs to them. Not Hezbollah, not its thug leadership, and certainly not to Tehran. The path may be clear, but whether the Lebanese government has the power to do so remains unclear. It had already agreed to disarm Hezbollah and banned the group's military activities to apparently no effect. Alexander Biers, Al Jazeera, for Inside Story. Alright, let's go ahead and bring in our guests in Beirut. We have Nayyem Selim, professor of political science at the Lebanese Army Military Academy. In Ottawa, we're joined by Marzie Khalilian, a political analyst and academic researcher. And in Athens, Nicholas Noe, editor-in-chief of the Beirut based news service, Mid EastWire.com. A warm welcome to you all. And thanks so much for joining us today on Inside Story. Professor Selim, let me start with you today. Let me ask you first, why Iran is making Lebanon such a central issue in its own war? For two reasons, Lebanon is the primary target or has been the primary target of Israel in addition to Gaza over the past few years. And two, Hezbollah is the closest ideological ally of Iran in the Arab world and in the region. And three, Hezbollah has lent a lot of support and backing morally and politically to Iran over the past decades. While in turn Iran has not been always stamped fast on the side of Hezbollah. And the last example of that was last April 8th when a ceasefire agreement was signed between the United States, Sruf Pakistan, in Islamabad and Iran for a ceasefire. The following day Israel launched a brutal barbaric attacks on Lebanon killing more than 1,200 civilian or injuring them, 350 killed and more than 1,000 or between 900 and more thousand injured. And mostly civilian. While Iran was expected to counter attack or strike back against Israel because it is a power in the region with possess long-range missile, cruise missiles, all kinds of effective weapons which could deter Israel. But it did not do so for Hezbollah or for Lebanon. And the situation is still on the same trend since April 8th up till now. Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular have been paying heavy prices. They have been enduring heavy casualties, the fighters of Hezbollah in the south. They have no air support, no air power, no tanks, no armored vehicles. They are pure guerrilla fighters moving from one place and another underground or above the ground and seeking to counter attack Israel. So what they have been doing on the ground have been impressive as far as their fight. Nicholas, I want to come to you as we heard in Alexander's report earlier. The U.S. has been trying to separate the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon from the war with Iran. Is that even possible to do at this stage? I think up until yesterday or the last 24 hours, let's say, there was a great debate amongst analysts and a number of people that know these different parties in this conflict quite well thought that it was very possible to separate these tracks. And that indeed, when press the Iranians would give up on Hezbollah and of course give up on Lebanon. But they wouldn't bring military power to bear in a deal that was emerging to their benefit if it didn't cover Hezbollah and Lebanon. And what we discovered, I think, in the last 20th Growers is that view was incorrect. That indeed, as your reporter said in the package before, these tracks are inseparable. And I like what at least one Lebanese academic has framed it, is that. At times of change, especially since this great war erupted after so much anticipation over decades, really. But it's not merely a kind of religious ideological, even military alliance between Iran and its allies in the region, especially Esballah. But you can also count other allies around the region. The relationship is now fundamentally different. They are all in it together. The different small non-state allies cannot go to battle against the superpower of the US, and the regional superpower is without a state ally. And vice versa, in fact, Iran also needs its crucial allies in order to bring pressure to bear in the overall regional balance. So actually what's happened has been a strengthening of these relationships. And that's why I and others think that the notion going forward that you'll be able to separate these two tracks, that's finished. The Israelis and the Americans were successful with a certain degree in separating off the poor Palestinians. So right now Iran is not bringing to bear the full threats that are available to it in favor of Gaza or Palestinians in the West Bank. However, Lebanon and Hasballah was a bridge too far. And that's what we saw. And I think that that will only deepen because there are now deep strategic needs between these different actors. We are in a kind of existential fight that is really going to determine the shape of the region and possibly wider for years and decades to come. And the Iranians and their allies believe they are on the cuss of a victory which could see a large withdrawal by the United States from the region, which even given the cost of they and their populations have born. It would be a shared long term strategic goal that they are unwilling to all give up. Marzia, from your vantage point, can there actually be a final agreement or a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran that does not actually reckon with the situation in Lebanon? And how important is Hasballah to Iran? Well, we understand from the statements that are coming from the Iran, the short answer is no. Iranians have made it very clear that there can be an agreement between Iran and the US without a peace fire in Lebanon. We saw very recently the tweet by Iranian Foreign Minister Mr. Arokshi that a violation of one front is the violation of all front, meaning that if the ceasefire in Lebanon is not respected, the whole ceasefire in whole is not valid. And it is very important in so many ways and why Iran insists on pursuing the ceasefire and advocating for the ceasefire for Lebanon. The most important thing that seems from what we understand that's coming from Iran is that the case in Lebanon, the ceasefire in Lebanon is acting as a test case. If the Israelis are not stopping the aggression towards the Lebanese people, what is the guarantee that they're not going to attack Iran and two months from now, three months from now. So it is not being treated as secondary. The issue of Lebanon is the central part of the talks and the central part of the overall ceasefire for the Iranians. Marzia, you said that this is being seen as a test case. Let me try to dig into this a little bit deeper with you. Does Iran view Hasballah solely as a legitimate Lebanese resistance movement or do they see them more as a proxy that's under their direct command? From this statement again, from the things that coming from Iran, what we understand is that Hasballah is its independent resistance movement that is made by the Lebanese people and is working for the Lebanese people, for the people of Lebanon. And so, it supports Lebanon in political, moral and strategic fronts, but that is the extent of it. From what we understand that's coming from Iran, we never have any confirmation from the side of Iran to suggest anything more than this. The two countries have closed ideological alignment. Perhaps that's why one of the reason that the alliance has worked so well, the two countries have been attacked by Israel. Lebanon has been attacked a lot longer. Iran has been attacked once last year and again this year. So, the two countries are working together, but we have never heard any confirmation from Iran to suggest that to question Hasballah's independence and integrity of the Lebanese or any form of interference on the side of Iran into the Lebanese domestic issues. Nicholas, in the recent past, you have expressed that Israel's strategy in Lebanon appears to be aimed at targeting civilian infrastructure while fueling sectarian divisions. Has that strategy, from your point of view, driven more people in Lebanon to support Hasballah? Well, I wouldn't want to speak on behalf of Lebanese and I think that there's been some recent polling, some surprising suggestions that a lot of Lebanese want to see Hasballah disarmed but don't necessarily want to go through the different processes to that endpoint. But I think what we can be sure about is you have in Israel's actions and I think not just in Lebanon but in a much wider swath of the Middle East and the world, frankly. They are creating, in fact, as Donald Trump reportedly said just the other evening, they are creating more hatred and more enemies than ever before. And I think that's undoubtedly happening across Lebanon, including with Lebanese, that very much reject Hasballah and reject the influence that they see Iran playing through Hasballah in their own country. So I think that that's actually the key message and it's something that the Israelis decade after decade have never have never accepted, even as they built up the ferocity and damage that they do to what they call supportive civilian populations and infrastructure, which is now reached, of course, a genocidal limit or genocidal level in Palestine and Gaza. But each time this just creates more better determined enemies against Israel. I do want to clarify though that that does not translate into support necessarily for Hasballah. Indeed, there are many Lebanese, like I said, that can hold two things to be true at the same time, which is a rejection of Hasballah's status as a non-state armed actor outside of the Lebanese law backed by a foreign country Iran. And also Israel has an occupying force that is inherently dangerous and that has acted in lawless, illegal, and in some cases genocidal or in a matter of ethnic cleansing towards Lebanon and towards other populations in the region. So I think that those two things together, that both make the future peacemaking so much more difficult than they already were. And we know that peacemaking has failed time and time again over the last decades. So unfortunately, I just see more bitterness, more enmity, and a deepening of hostility and a generation now, which is growing up to see that America is enabling this 100% that it also acts in a way that is lawless and appears almost pirate like sometimes. And Israel that doesn't care about international law or international concerns and simply wants to do what it wants to do and take the territory it wants. That will be get more determined, powerful enemies, unfortunately for everyone. Professor Salam, the US continues to demand that his Balla be disarmed. They want to see the Lebanese government, the Lebanese military carry this out. I want to ask you if that's something that's even possible because many observers say that his Balla is more powerful than the Lebanese military. Can this actually happen? Can his Balla be disarmed? I don't think that the Lebanese government will be able to disarm his Balla because the military capabilities of the Lebanese army are very limited. The Lebanese army has been prevented for a long time from acquiring modern weapon to defend Lebanon by land, by sea or by air. And therefore his Balla came in the first place decades ago to fill that void void of power which is lacking by the Lebanese government and which is a continuous still the present. [BLANK_AUDIO] government cannot say in we want to be the sole military and security power in the country, particularly if they cannot defend the country against, particularly especially against Israel. And this is a weak argument for the Lebanese government. On the other hand, Hasballa's fighting spirits and fighting abilities are no doubt impressive, but the military technologies at the disposal of Hasballa also is very limited. They cannot shoot any airplane, Israeli airplane. In the same way that Iran is practically non-able to shoot down any Israeli or American airplane. Marzie, I was asking Professor Salim whether or not the Lebanese military or Lebanese government would be able to disarm Hasballa. I want to ask you from your vantage point, would Iran allow Hasballa to be disarmed? What we see from Iran is that the decision for Hasballa to be disarmed or not does not lie on the side of the Iranians. It's a decision that is that is purely to be made by the Lebanese people, by Hasballa, by the Lebanese government. Iran views the disarmament project as an Israeli objective, but they have made it very clear that Iran does not interfere in the domestic politics of neighboring countries and also said it several times that the decision is for the Lebanese people and not for outside countries, whether Iran or Israel to be made. Nicholas, I want to ask you about the fact that Washington has been sponsoring these talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, but as we know Hasballa has not been at the table. They've been opposed to these talks. How can you reach an effective ceasefire or understanding if Hasballa is not involved in these talks? Well, you can't. The matters that the negotiating table are being decided in the field of battle. We saw the effect last night in really stunning form where the Israelis were apparently forced by Donald Trump to scale back their military assault plans to agree to limit their attacks, to create a safe haven zone, if you will, in Beirut, in exchange for Hasballa not targeting northern Israel or Israel proper. And all of that predicated on the Iranian threat to use military force against Israel and perhaps against the US. So this is really, this is the main event. Unfortunately, if you will, I wish that things in diplomacy were settled in the negotiating, or at the negotiating table, but the reality is that the talks in Washington are an attempt by the Americans and the Israelis to basically divide the Lebanese, or rather than they already are, and to try to create more pressure against Hasballa. The core weakness there is that there is a regional war going on. It has only slowed a bit in some places, but it is still ongoing, and it could re-arrupt as an open war really at any moment. And that is where the actual, unfortunately, the actual force behind any agreement, any full ceasefire, or any limitation of where Israel or Hasballa or Iran or America can attack or not attack, that's where this is being decided. It should not have come to this, but remember, it's been decades of the destruction of international law, the destruction of the UN's remit, not only by authoritarians, monarchs, and dictators, but also by the United States and its allies, most notably in the 2002 Iraq War and the illegal invasion of Iraq, but it's a long story. So this is where we're at now. This is Donald Trump's law of the jungle, the end of international humanitarian law, and international law, and this is what everyone gets is a test of wills and a test of military strength. And that is what is going to determine, unfortunately, for the people of Lebanon, the people of the region, that's what's going to determine the war and peace trajectory in the coming weeks, months and years. Mourzee, it was just in the last year and a half that many analysts thought that Hasballa had been very much diminished, somewhere even saying they had essentially been defeated. I want to ask you how Hasballa has been able to come back from recent setbacks and how key was Iran's backing in doing that? Well, again, Hasballa is a Lebanese group. I think that is a question that should be directed at you know, analysts specializing on Lebanon. Iran has said it several times that the support of the Hasballa is political, moral, and strategic. The two countries, the two, Hasballa and Iran have at times, they have a mutual aggressor, they have Israel attacking both Lebanon and both Iran. But to assume that Hasballa is fully backed by Iran, when the reports from Iran are all suggesting otherwise, it makes it a little bit difficult. We have reports from the Americans, from Israeli suggesting otherwise. But what we are seeing from Iran is that the weapons that Lebanon is using are from Lebanon, are from Hasballa. And that Hasballa is a Lebanese group. It is not an Iranian group. It does not work under command of the Iranians and it is working for the interest of the Lebanese people. All right, well, we've run out of time. So we're going to have to leave the conversation there. Thanks so much to our guests. My name is Salim, Marzia Khalilian, and Nicholas Nome. And thank you too for watching. You can see the program again anytime by visiting our website. That's Al Jazeera.com. And for further discussion, go to our Facebook page. That's facebook.com/aj inside story. You can also join the conversation on X. Our handle is @aj inside story. For now, that's it for me, Mohamedim Jum, and the whole team here. Al Jazeera's coverage continues in just a moment. Stay tuned. [Music]