Why I Wrote The Storm: Preparing for Financial Cycles Defining the Next Decade

I didn't write this book for money or prestige. I wrote this book to start a conversation. About three years ago, I started hearing the same chatter, the same sentence from friends and colleagues. Different industries, different regions, same feeling. A version of something doesn't feel right, something's shifting. I just can't name it. Am I reading this right? I kept hearing it. So did the people asking. And that's when I knew this wasn't noise. That was kind of the first crack, right? I've been writing a bunch of essays on my blog. Seven of them. In fact, my eighth one released today about the storm that I see coming. And it all really is a shameless plug for a book that I have releasing this week. And today I'm going to answer the question, why did I write this book? Why now? And why me? Welcome to the "Dead Doctor" podcast. Where we deliver the definitive prescription for navigating distressed real estate debt. I'm your host and America's most qualified debt doctor, Bill Byel. I spent my career investing in diagnosing and reviving thousands of distressed real estate situations. The debt doctor prescribes proprietary remedies to help you identify, acquire and monetize undervalued real estate assets. Each episode gives you insider access to the strategy's top cohorts use to transform market volatility into double-digit returns. If you enjoy what you hear today, hit the follow button. Subscribe so you don't miss an episode. And please share your support with a quick review. You can find me on the web at billbimel.com. Thanks for joining this episode of the "Dead Doctor." Good morning, good afternoon and good evening. Thank you for joining the "Dead Doctor." From wherever you are in the world, whatever time it might be, I appreciate you stopping in and having the conversation. If for no other reason than you like my voice, please subscribe to this channel and hit the like button. I'm trying to grow the community. I do one episode a week that's all I can manage given the fact that I actually work for a living and manage mortgage and real estate portfolios around the United States. You know, I'm going to say that my book, The Storm, releases this week. So, and I have to be frank with you, I have had one of the most crazy experiences of writers, anxiety or artists' anxiety that I've ever experienced yesterday or actually Sunday. And I have to share with you because I want to get it on the way down because I've been on stages since I was a kid. I started the radio station at my high school. I was an actor and the lead in the musical, my senior year of high school. You know, I've done this episode. I've been on stages speaking at industry conferences for years. I've never had much fear of it. Never really got to me in many ways. I did notice recently in recent years that I had started to develop some physical stuff, like sweating and whatnot before I get on stage. But this Sunday, I had this intense anxiety about the book. And as I was reading and doing the audible version, I had this real anger at myself. Thinking that maybe I just needed to work on the book. I tell you this because I've been working on it now for two years. This book that I'm, that's coming out this week is called The Storm Markets Meets Mother Nature. And it's about what I see coming as a convergence in the, in the world of real estate, which will then boil over into financial markets in general and have profound effects on our society and probably change the course of history because that is always changing. I'll tell you the moment I decided to write this book. You know, I have been sitting inside distress alone in real estate portfolios for 30 years. And in the last decade, I've really had to fight hard to try to stay in my lane and, and have my team ready for the next run of distress. That hasn't been easy because of all the reasons that we've discussed, extended, pretend, cheap credit, a long run of financial prosperity, a government intervention in the enforcement of foreclosures or defaulted loans. So then I went to this conference in DC, Washington DC, about three and a half years ago. And here I am walking into the belly of the den. For those that know me, they know that I feel that politics is a non-workable conversation. So I try to avoid political conversations because it's opinion, right? And then it's opinion that tries to roll in facts. And then there's alternative facts and it just becomes a losing conversation. And as someone who's strived on making all of my career and my interactions win-win, I just don't like politics. And that's tough because, you know, as a kid, I wanted to be the president of the United States. I wanted to be a leader. I wanted to be a great influence to the next generation and to my own. And unfortunately, politics in this country doesn't allow that to happen in a pure, in a way with that that has integrity. So there I am. I tried to avoid DC much, but I did attend this conference that was thrown by a friend of mine, Tony Moss. I've actually had an episode on the debt doctor where you can check it out. And it's fascinating. What was fascinating about this conference was everyone agreed to leave their politics at the door. And so all of a sudden, I was very, we were actually having real conversations that weren't framed by an agenda. Now everyone still had an agenda. But what this conference was about was about the climate and the extremes that were happening in climate and the noticeable, actuarial, factual difference that was going on. And to be in the most notorious city in the world for politics and surrounded by a bunch of conservative financial guys, liberal, climate scientists, government bureaucrats, who most of whom I've made keep their politics to themselves. And a lot of us were just moderates like myself, centrist, objective from the industry of the world of mortgage finance, insurance, real estate, and private equity. And by 2023, the numbers of the effect of climate change were really telling a new story. And we started to see insurance carriers raising rates and alarming rates then. There were whole regions being exited and that it was clear from the actual newly revised actuarial tables that a change in the Earth's weather patterns had arrived in 2020. Now if you see the irony in this, we all got distracted by something else in 2020, a novel virus that changed the course of history for us. But what actually did also happen in 2020 was that the frequency and extremity of major climate events around the world increased in number and regularity on an actuarial factual basis. And what this meant for my industry was that suddenly the eye in people's minds was that the ITI, that's the insurance line in principal interest taxes and insurance. That's the number that homeowners put into or property owners figure into the total payment necessary to carry their mortgage. All of a sudden, the I meant something in our industry. And I walked out of that conference, that room knowing that I couldn't stay in my lane anymore. You know, I knew a podcast episode wasn't enough and I wanted to put my name on something. That's when I decided to write this book. So you know, with all humility, let me be clear, I am not the smartest guy on climate mythology. I'm certainly not the smartest guy when it comes to macro economics and strategy. I love economics. It was my favorite course in school. I am not the most brilliant economist. And you know, each of those people are the people I've turned to when I did research on this. I'm kind of just trying to put a logical objective face on it. And I see real lives. You know, I see how these systems are actually landing. Friends of mine and Florida that own commercial real estate that are leaving that are taking their chips off the table in many, again, for a good portion of their portfolio, looking for alternative places. The problem is that there's no place that's really safe. When you look at the map of the United States right now, it is not just one region of the country. It is every region of the country that has something to deal with. Texas, as tornadoes, as hurricanes and has freezing. The upper region of the country, the snowstorms and the freezing has gotten worse and worse of the extremities of summers and winters. You've obviously seen hurricanes hitting parts of the country we never expected. Tornado Alley is no longer an Alley. It's more like a tundra. The, you know, wildfires in the West need I say more. And even Hawaii with wildfires one day and major rainstorms and flooding the next. What I realized is that there are several silos that have, that are kind of simultaneously becoming dislocated at once. And usually my experience up until, up until recently is is that, you know, you have these issues that come along and they're big and they get dealt with. But you don't, but and they're, you know, you deal with everything in these silos, right? And the other sources that politely wait their term, you know, a death cycle, a demographic, a shift, the weather, one storm at a time, but not anymore, right? Now we're seeing all of these elements coming into our conversations around real estate. You know, in the decisions made in one silo are now affecting everything. That is what's called convergence is what I call convergence. I speak about it in the book. It's in your inbox. It's my portfolio reviews. I'm seeing that they don't just coexist anymore. They amplify each other. You know, it's like warm water fueling a hurricane and we are standing in the warm waters right now. Massive amounts of commercial real estate that having to be refinanced this year due to maturity. And it gets bigger every year because some portion of it is allowed to get pushed through the extended pretend regulations of the Fed. The demographic shifts that we've seen, we've seen people flock to parts of the country that are very, very high risk of weather events. You've seen the cost of insurance price people out of certain markets. I Jerome Powell went in front of Congress two years ago, you last year and said that there will be regions of this country that are you are uninsurable and unmovable in the not so distant future. So why does this matter to you? Well, if you're listening to this show, you might be a real estate professional, a node investor, a financial advisor, a banker, real estate broker, loan broker, stock broker, operator of any kind or you know, you're the person that people call when they don't know what to do. So a lot of you are the leaders that are going to go out and spread the message. And you know, this book is for you, not because you're in danger because you're, it's one of your clients, your colleagues, our community that are going to be affected by this. And I'm a believer that we all live together in society and need to watch out for each other, regardless of race or political agenda or anything. For those of you that have already bought the book on pre-order, I really do appreciate you. Again, it's not about the money. No, I promise you, no one gets rich making selling books these days. It's about starting the conversation. You know, I know what happens when people hear the word storm. They hear fear. And that is not what this is. This is not a doom and gloom book. It's a preparation book. From clear the way what they clear away what's unsustainable. When I say storms, I refer to all kinds of weather events that could include fire, clearing a way old bush and old brush to allow for new sprouts. That's what storms, that's what mother nature has always done. And when you see something coming and you prepare for it, you can create extraordinary possibility for yourself when the dawn breaks. You know, I've watched several cycles in real estate. I've watched restructures of companies and people that have humility and address the problem now. You can build something on the other side. And that's really the story, the optimism I want to put into the industry's hands, right? And it's not lost on me, by the way, I just want to say that I think today's episode is going to be dropping on Earth Day. When I talk about mother nature, markets meet another mother nature in the book, I mean it all, the planet, the cycles, the systems we've built on top of them, you know, today of it being Earth Day makes this episode be the right day to have this conversation. So Friday's release day, I'll tell you that's great. How a book launches does matter. So if you have ordered the book, thank you. And please order some more for friends. Pre-orders of matter. If you think the conversation deserves to reach more people, that's when you get to make it happen this week, launch week. One copy, many gift it to a client, whatever it might be, hate to be a pitch person. But I'm not one of these folks that's going to make a living out of YouTube. And I'm not going to really make any money off of this book either. I'll be lucky if I break even. But the more of us having this conversation, the better prepared we all will be in the industry will be and the society will be. So everyone, that's ordered the book. Thank you. I genuinely appreciate it and love you. You know, your support does matter. Here's one thing I do want to leave you with. The book is not just the end of the conversation. It's not the conversation. It's the opening line. In many ways, the book presents more questions and more uncertainty that needs to be explored. But the conversation really is about responsibility and what it means to prepare the people around you. You know, for a long time, we have survived off of certain assumptions. That's what society does. It makes assumptions, builds models, loose into those until one day they break. So the storm is coming. But so is the next clearing for new opportunity. And I'm glad we're navigating it together. That's a wrap of today's episode of "Dead Doctor." I enjoy bringing this content to you each and every week. And I really appreciate you tuning in. Remember to follow us so you get notified whenever new episodes release. If you haven't already done so please share one of your favorite episodes with a friend, family or colleagues and if you don't mind leave us a positive review on Apple's Spotify or whatever your favorite listening platform might be. Until next time, thank you for investing your time with us on The Dead Doctor.