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Why 0% in Bitcoin & Blockchain is Actually a Riskier Bet Than 1%

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Why 0% in Bitcoin & Blockchain is Actually a Riskier Bet Than 1%

In this episode of "Raise Your Average," hosts Pierre Daly and Mike Filbert interview Matt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, about the current state of crypto in 2026. Despite Bitcoin trading at roughly $62,000—over 50% below its all-time high—Hogan reframes this "crypto winter" as the most constructive downturn yet. He notes that previous winters saw 70-80% declines and catastrophic failures like FTX or Mt. Gox, whereas this cycle has lower volatility and no existential blowups. Crucially, foundational developments continue unabated: stablecoins are gaining real-world traction, tokenization is being embraced by major financial institutions, and regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act are advancing through Congress. Hogan highlights a behavioral split among investors: those with existing allocations are adding during the dip, while fence-sitters delay due to career risk and fear of catching a falling knife. He advises advisors and individuals to adopt a systematic, long-term approach—starting with a small position (e.g., 1%) and defending it by rebalancing during downturns, rather than trying to time the bottom. He also points to future catalysts, particularly agentic AI, where autonomous agents without bank accounts may increasingly rely on blockchain for payments, a trend not yet priced into markets. Hogan emphasizes that crypto, at roughly $2 trillion versus $110 trillion in global equities, warrants a neutral allocation of 1-2% for most portfolios, not zero. The hosts echo this, noting that while the price action is painful, the underlying ecosystem is stronger than ever, making this a potential opportunity for disciplined investors.

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I'm Pierre Daly. I'm Mike Filbert. This is Raise Your Average. On today's episode, we're talking about how investors should be thinking about crypto in 2026, especially after what has felt like and been a long, painful stretch for anyone holding Bitcoin or anything in their world. Our guest is Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. He spends his days watching this market and talking to both professional advisors and individual investors. And his view is pretty clear. Yes, we are in a real crypto winter. But underneath the bad headlines, some of the most important parts of the ecosystem, like Bitcoin's role as digital hard money, stable coins and tokenization are actually getting stronger. We're going to talk about where we are in the cycle, what the pros are watching that most retail investors ignore, and how to think about Bitcoin as a long-term store of value with the built-in call option on it becoming money. Mike, how you doing? I'm good. How are you doing? I'm good. I was just looking at Bitcoin and I'm sorry about that. Yeah, yeah. You know, 62. Like it was sitting at, I just looked at it a moment ago. It was at 61, 999. I thought, you know, that's 50%. So just a little bit over 50% off the highs that we saw last year. And I'm curious to know, like, you know, whether this crypto winter Matt keeps talking about is something advisors should lean into as an opportunity or were just simply righted out on the sidelines. What's the right, you know, I'm curious to see what Matt thinks is the right instinct for a typical practice. Yeah. Couldn't agree more. It's quite a different time than it was back in October and November of last year. And it's, I mean, the funny thing is it's pretty typical for crypto to go through this type of scenario. Yeah, absolutely. And but frankly, I mean, many tech stocks, many tech garlings have gone through this kind of winter that we're talking about today. So, you know, I just, you know, I'm just curious to see what Matt's footing is on it. You know, I'd like to know. I also, I mean, also, I'd like to know, you know, how much attention are advisors paying to stable coins and tokenization specifically versus just focusing on, on, you know, what's, you know, plain vanilla Bitcoin and Ethereum exposures. Like, there's so much other stuff. I think I watched something. You were on BNN and you were talking about Salana for a moment, which, you know, which was that, well, I found your remark interesting, which was that Salana was really, you know, one of the architectural backbones where, where business is concerned, where, you know, contracts. And I mean, the same way that in a similar fashion as what Ethereum is a little bit more interesting than just currency as a play. Yeah. And I think the, the, the whole, do it yourself investor, the DIY crowd, the retail swarm. I think, you know, the funny thing with them is they're probably looking at things like what's going on in AI and they're, they're distracted by other shiny objects to some degree. So the retail swarm is certainly not there in full force to moment and, and pretty much across the board. It doesn't matter whether you're talking about Bitcoin or Salana or Ethereum, you know, great stories on chain link and how they're going to be required stories like Tau. Then you've got things like hyper liquid, right, which is becoming a dominant global offshore market and soon to be brought into the US. You got, this is the 24/7 trading. Yeah. Tokenized trading, yeah. Yeah. And then you've got, you know, the, the genius act and the various acts are going through Congress and you see those institutional, on the institutional side, things continue to, you know, make progress. And on the tech side, they continue to make progress. So, you know, one just wonders when the retail, you know, magnifying glass gets reset to the world of crypto and the other thing that I'm really interested to talk to him about is, is the agentech world. So as we get into the, the world of agentech AI, these AI task completers are not going to have bank accounts. And they're going to be doing autonomous work online. And how are they going to get paid since they're not banked? Maybe the person who's running them possibly, but there's a lot of agentech work that that fits extremely well into being operated on a blockchain and settling whatever claims one might have back and forth via the blockchain. And so it, to me, it's all coming together, but it's when, when does the, when does the heat come back to the area? So it'd be interesting that talks about about all of that where we are in that cycle. How he's talking with institutions and things like that. Obviously the AI, you know, rally that's going on and we've had some volatility this past week, but I mean, it's ongoing volatility. But also, you know, the SpaceX IPO and other IPOs that are in the pipelines sort of sucking the oxygen out of the market. I think it's always interesting. Like when you see, you know, like Bitcoin as the sort of bellweather down 50%. You know, it just feels like, oh, this is so bad. This is so bad. You know, what are we going to do? Investors are, you know, probably looking at it or, or, you know, I don't even want to talk to my clients about this right now because it's such a, you know, black mark. And, and, but all this other stuff that you just talked about is actually ongoing work that's, that's continuing whether we like it or not. Precisely. Whether we, you know, whether we believe in it or not. This is Raise Your Average, dedicated to making you a better long-term investor. Join us as we sit down with some of the most interesting names and finance to discuss macro markets, investment strategies and more. Hey, man. Hi, bud. How's it going? What, what, don't we believe in? Oh, we're that, we're that. Oh, there's a long way. We're just, that is, that is this look, for sure. I've just, I think I just parachute it in right at the end. How are you guys doing? Yeah. Right. We're listening around on you. Some, some pre-show stuff and chatting about AI, agentic work and how its impact could potentially have some pretty serious implications for the crypto world. And I don't think those things, those things are being priced in at all at the moment. It would seem. Yeah, I definitely agree with that. For sure. What a, what a, what an interesting time to be alive. Right. That is, that is, that is an understatement of this entry. We've got, we've got AI, we've got blockchain, we've got space, we're, we're, we're, we're sending stuff to space. I mean, we're, we're not at peak imagination yet, but we're, we're working our way there. We are getting there. Yeah, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, they're, uh, perspective filings that talking about colonizing Mars. I mean, that's, what is it? A billion shares if he, if he gets a million people settled on Mars. Right. Yeah. Exactly. That's, uh, it's not in my KPIs yet, but, you know, like the, no, I, like the, it's hard for us. I think Columbus got a similar deal. Exactly. It's not hard to imagine why investors, you know, get, get pulled around and dragged around to the next shiny object and, and, you know, like, and then we've got so many to choose from and some of them are just completely right out there. Fantastic. Still and, and some of them are established. We, you know, we were just saying like people look at Bitcoin and they think, wow, it's down, you know, I was looking at the price, Matt. It's what 60, 1,999. Yeah. And when I looked at it a moment ago, um, which is just slightly over 50% off the high, the darling that that fell from grace, like for now, like, yeah. I mean, right. I mean, I mean, but what we were saying, what we were saying that, sorry, I don't mean to interrupt you, but what we were saying was that, you know, many of the tech darlings have gone through this cycle before, you know, the, any of the mag seven stocks have gone through these, these routes where, you know, they're down 50% 60% it's net I was, yeah. Yeah, it's, it's so true. I was thinking of posting like a guide to, uh, AI investors on what to do when the asset dips a few days ago, because in crypto, we're so used to it. And, um, you know, uh, I think AI will have that moment. I guess it is today, right? The Korean memory stocks or whatever. Yeah. Yeah. Yesterday. Yesterday. It's interesting that SpaceX gave back half of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin in through in what two days. It caused what it all in perspective. And more than the entirety of everything crypto, X Bitcoin. Yes. Yes. The whole part of crypto that's supposed to reinvent all the finance. Yeah. Yes. Then one day of trading in SpaceX. Um, it is. Well, Elon, Elon knows he's like, I'm not going to. go down like some sucker like Christopher Columbus and not get my get my equity share when I colonize the next the next planetary, you know, geography. And that's right. Make sure he's sad. He's he took Christopher Columbus's, you know, he looked at his deal and he said, wait a second. He's a lot of him. Get your paid or like you colonize Mars. It's too good. It's too ill and they're rich almost. It is. And it is. It's it's it's so great to have you on because it's going to be great to catch up on. You know, what do you? Well, I guess we should probably dive in but as a highlight. Welcome, Matt. Yeah. I think we're seeing how is this winter different? Are you seeing the same sort of developmental cycle under the surface? It seems to me like, you know, things would probably be more bullish than they were a year ago from the perspective of where we are from a legislative perspective. What agentic AI could bring to the table for tokenized transactions, you know, the position of many institutions and whether they have a holding or don't. I mean, it's it seems all quite fundamentally quite good. The price just sucks. I think you may have it on the head. Look, I think this is the best winter ever. This is like a global warming winter for crypto. The price is down, but it's down less than previous winters, right? previous winters were 70 to 80% down and this one is 50 volatility is lower. We have a much better regulatory environment. We don't have the same blowups we hadn't passed winters, right? Remember last winter was FTX three hours capital, et cetera. The winner before was the ICO crackdown with all the scams. The winner before that was Mt. Cox, the largest custodian collapsing. Right now, maybe there's some like small boogie man out there, but there's been no existential collapse. At the same time, we have all the things that crypto was talking about for years actually happening, right? We have people reinventing trading. We have people reinventing options. We have people reinventing reinsurance. We have real world adoption of stable coins. We have BlackRock and Goldman and others building on blockchain. I think the people who are sad about this winter are like the people who want more pain. They're the people who are taking cold showers in the morning because it's brutal. They're the people who like like to ban before it was popular. Now they're charting and they're like, this is over. I think it's a great setup on hugely optimistic, sure, where we're going. It's the best winner ever. You can see the spring coming. The price sucks for sure. The vibes on crypto Twitter are down, but I think we can see what spring and indeed the next summer looks like. I think it's pretty bright. And these are the opportunities, right? When you're thinking through your allocation methodology, we have some products that have some Bitcoin exposure in it and we're constantly suggesting that people, you've got a crawl walk run, right? If you're going to get a position, get a position that's small that you can defend. And if you did that and you have some inopportune purchases, well, now's the time to be defending. Now's the time to be looking at that position sizing if it was one or two or five percent, topping that back up to where it was before and letting the market volatility work for you. Now when we come out of the winter, which we eventually likely will, even Peter Schiff says Bitcoin isn't going to zero now. So, I mean, we've got one convert. So that's we kind of progress and come out of the winter. I mean, these are the times where it's a little bit frustrating and boring. It's like paint drying. But, you know, these are the exposures that when you look back a year or two from now, you'll be happy that you put up with the next. Who knows how long it'll be three to six months of three to six weeks. We really don't know how long the sideways action continues and you build a base and all the sudden, you bid from there. And then if you've got that, you know, those harder purchases under your belt, you know, as you go from crawl to walk, you've got a lower cost base, your position can grow into that allocation. You may not have to add. You could you could send a little by not adding as it goes up and maybe letting it grow a bit in your portfolio. But now are the times to do that. And we're seeing trickles of it. I have to say I still see some some creates coming through, which are great. But what are you seeing in that regard? Are you still seeing sort of the old is the is the old sort of guard that was sort of working its way through the process going through all the chat like, you know, the committees and the investment side and the institutional side, those are operating at quarterly kind of, you know, board meeting, ask type time frames. Are you seeing all that continue to progress progress as well? Yeah, actually, I love the point you're making. It's exactly right. People always ask me, Matt, you're always bullish on Bitcoin. How can that be? I'm like, well, I've been a bit wise for eight plus years now. Bitcoin is roughly 10X since I started. That's like a pretty good track record. Now during that 10X, it's had multiple 50, 70% pullbacks, but you have to be allocating for the long time. So I completely agree with you. In terms of what we're seeing from adoption perspective, it's actually really distinct. I've said before that the average client that we serve, which is a financial professional, right? It's financial advisors, it's family offices, it's sovereign wealth funds, et cetera. They take about eight meetings with us before they allocate because there's a long learning process. They have to get very confident and then they allocate. What we've seen since the pullback started is that those who got over the line before the pullback started have used this to build their position. So they have conviction. They're not selling and they're the ones who you are creating those creates that you saw. Right. The thing that is also true, I won't just be polyannic here is the people who got up to the line, but not over are holding off. They want to see it bottom first. So it depends on if you're in or if you're out, if you're in you're adding, if you're out, you're watching and asking, is this the bottom? Is this the bottom? Is this the bottom? That's the behavior that we're seeing in the market. Those behaviors are at odds with each other. The first makes a lot of sense. If you believe in it last year at 100 to 125, what changed between then and now fundamentally? And fundamentally, you didn't get over the line and get the purchases in. Now it just goes down and you're not going to talk to your board about that. The career risk is real. We're in a classic scenario. I think it's behavioral, but I back to you, Peter. Keep going. But people always say things like if it drops, I'm going to buy, I'm going to back up the truck. And then when it actually happens, they're like, those are called lies. Yeah. Yeah. I tell people that they need to look, the issue is that when you say that, when the market is up, the market feels good. So you're like, of course, I would buy if it drops to this level. But when it gets by level, it's not going to feel good. I tell people to take a sticky note and write down the price at which they'll buy Bitcoin and put it on your laptop because I promise you, like right now, it's at 62. If it gets to 55, it's going to feel awful in Bitcoin land. So if 55 is the number you'll buy at, you need to have a forcing mechanism that tells you you're actually going to allocate at that point. But it's hard. It is, it is behavioral, as Mike said, I think that's the reason we're seeing this activity is classic sort of behavioral ties. There's a lot of you. It's not you seeing this in every asset class under the sun, right? I mean, this is hard. It really is hard. So, you know, just like that's why I think it's so important is get that get off of zero, right? Get that diminimus amount in where you can now, you're okay with it. You're okay to defend it, right? You put in 1%, it's now half a percent. That was, you know, 50 basis points of your portfolio. Let's go put the other 50 basis points in. Yeah. And let's just and maybe goes down to 40. Like we don't know, you know, whether you're talking about Bitcoin and scarcity, I said, are you talking about some of the more operationally slanted cryptos like Ethereum or Salona or Tau or Chainlink, I mean, all of these things have such what seem to be incredibly exciting futures, especially when you start to factor in the agentic world. Yeah. You know, manage your behavior, right? Just manage your behavior. I like the idea of taking a boggle approach, you know, buy the market cap, though, you can worry about it, have your 1% in, close your eyes for 10 years and see what happens. But that's not how, you know, that's not how most investors function is, you know, with this systematic, that's the whole point of all these systematic solutions, right? Is to is to help investors overcome their own, their own behavior or, you know, blockades and things that that, you know, we say we're going to do. And then when the opportunity presents itself, we're not ready. Emotionally, we're not ready. You know, we may have the capital to put into Bitcoin at 62, but you know we're just not the fortitude's not there. So the systematic programs are so important. So the funny thing is Matt's talking about institutions that took eight meetings to get there. And then dude, dudes in Gauss who got there, like, yeah, let's do it. The ones that are sitting at the precipice are like, I'm not touching that. Too much career risk. Why would I want to go explain this to the board? I'll wait for it to bottom. We're in that classic bottoming phase where the people are dinner like this hands off the sit and that's exactly right. Yeah, they're all humans at the end. I also think there are a few things that come to mind. You know, the first you're getting people over the hump. One thing to recognize is that this is, you know, speak to the Jack Bogal thing. This is part of the world's capital markets. Like equities are 110 trillion. Cryptos a little under two trillion. The neutral position isn't actually zero. I try to get people to realize this. The neutral position is somewhere in the one to two percent range. If you don't have an opinion, that's where you should be. If you're bullish, you should be over. If you're bearish, you should be under. But if you don't have an opinion, that's where you need to start. But I do think there is this behavioral quirk. I also think there's something strange about crypto that I don't see with other assets where people think that if they allocate 1%, it could somehow destroy their entire portfolio. When the math tells you that if you allocate 1%, you can lose a percent. And I don't know what that is, but people think of it as this virus that gets into their portfolio. But no, it's just it's part of the world's capital assets. I think it's a very exciting part with significant upside. I think the right position is not zero. And yes, systematic strategies can help people allocate. It's kind of an all or nothing thing, isn't it? It's not like you're absolutely right. It really isn't an all or nothing. I know it's not enough, but that's how but but that's how people's you it. Not emotionally. That's what it is, right? Surprising. You know, you're right, Matt. No one's going to get a black eye from from 1% of their portfolio being in Bitcoin. It's it's going to be fine. And in fact, it scratches an itch for people that sort of solves that behavioral behavioral issues. So a discipline approach, not chasing highs or panicking at the lows. And one I mean, it sounds like every other asset because in a sense, it is like every other asset, right? It needs to be disciplined and thoughtful and long term oriented. That's true in crypto as well. You think of Bitcoin had had had some income. It would be treated better. I mean, I'm not talking about options based income, but but it's like, I mean, gold gets the same treatment as well because it has no it has no business, right? There's nothing behind it except for the thing itself. Yeah, I think that's a challenge for some people. Certainly for the discounted cash low people. I think that's a a mental challenge for them to overcome. But yeah, there's lots of assets that don't generate cash flow that have significant income and gold has a strong track record of doing that. It's also part of what gives it it's low correlation to other assets. The fact that it's different, which is part of what makes it such a good addition to portfolio. So there is a two edge sword to this income side, but you're right that there is no, you know, there is no fundamental floor that people can point to. And I think that's a challenge for some people. It's a function of peer of scarcity, right? So when you have an asset that scares, that's a feature. It's not a bug. Right. A scarce asset means that there's like waterfront property. Gold is a scarce asset. Bitcoin, there'll be only, you know, the 21 million coins. And that scarcity is what drives the uniqueness. The fact that it doesn't have cash flows and cannot be easily replicated is the feature. Right. It is the thing that you're actually looking for. And it's also kind of not all that surprising that when you're looking at scarce assets, the other, you know, the granddaddy of them all scarce assets is going through a bit of a consolidation period from having a blow off top. It'll maybe it's not a blow off top. It had a good run and now we're digesting those gains. And so, you know, when you're thinking through the different layers of the digital universe, that's something to think through. Am I looking for scarce assets that are gold like for that one to two percent? Or am I looking for more technology assets that have a function that, you know, in my mind, is going to explode to the upside with respect to AI coming into, into, right? So I wonder, Matt, if we don't just take a moment and step back because you do such a good job of explaining this. Maybe some folks are, you know, watching this and don't have an idea of the different types of technologies or, or digital assets that are around there, maybe in plain English, you could walk us through that. Yeah. And then, and then on top of that, think through, you know, where are investors sort of over focusing, under focusing in the moment today? Once you kind of, here's the landscape, here's what these things are and do because you do such a great job of that. I can never do that as good as justice as you do. So why try for the, for the newbies? That's kind of what we were talking about before you joined, Matt, which was that, you know, people look at the price and they say, oh, this is so bad. This is so bad. You know, this is, this is the ugly duckling. What am I going to, you know, like, why would I even, I'm not going to touch this thing. But they don't realize, like, even, and I'm talking about even people who have invested in it. Obviously, the most people have felt the most pain about it. But they don't realize that there's all this other technological yeah, work that's going on behind the scenes, developmental work, architect, you know, business, you know, architectural foundations of financial system that are happening. And they don't understand it, obviously, because, you know, they just haven't had that they haven't made the time to grasp all the different applications. But that's exactly what we were sort of chatting about, bit as you joined. Yeah, it's absolutely massive. And I agree, people lump them all in together. And they all think they're kind of like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is actually really the outlier. So blockchain is a new technology that blows value to be stored and move across the internet. You can do lots of things like that. Just like the internet was a new technology that allowed information to move across the internet. And you can use that for search or for shopping or for business or for video calls or for watching videos. You can use it for a lot of different reasons. And those are all very different businesses, right? That's Google that's Amazon that sells for us. That's Netflix. That's Zoom. Very different businesses. Blockchain is the same. The first application was creating a version of digital gold, which is Bitcoin. And that has gold like characteristics. But most of everything else from Ethereum to Solana on down is creating a platform that allows other traditional assets to move around the world and settle faster than they do in traditional rails. So by that, I mean stable coins, stable coins are digital dollars that move over a blockchain based network instead of over swift or traditional payment systems. Tokenization are digital assets like stocks and bonds and commodities that move over blockchain networks like Ethereum and Solana instead of through the traditional brokerage system. And these these new rails, these blockchain based rails are just much faster and much easier to use and much cheaper than traditional assets. I like to have a few examples here. So maybe it will hammer home. And then I'd be happy to explain why they're so fast. But just to give an example, if I wanted to wire money to the Philippines today, I could go to JP Morgan, which says 300,000 employees and a CEO that makes 40 million dollars a year. And it would take two business days. There would be FX route in transit. And the fee would be 40 hours or he go to Ethereum, who has no CEO, no employees, no offices. And I could move it in a couple of seconds for a fee of a penny. That's like amazing, right? You have this thing that has no employees, no offices, no CEO, they can move faster than JP Morgan. And the same is true on stocks. I could settle a stock on on though 24, seven 365 globally instantaneously or I could use the traditional system where it settles in 24 to 36 hours. Right? These are just fundamentally faster. So the exciting thing about crypto is if you exclude Bitcoin, I think we're we're in the process of reinventing how money stocks bonds and commodities move around the world on a very small part of the world, like on Ethereum, Salana, etc. All of those crypto assets we were talking about this earlier are like a couple hundred billion dollars in market value. And they are fundamentally rewiring how all stocks, all bonds, all dollars move around the world. I don't think the traditional financial system is going to exist in the same way in the next five or 10 years. It's all being rebuilt on crypto based rails. And people are completely missing that part of the story because they're distracted by price. And how do you how do you participate in those in I mean, do you participate in those those situations, those opportunities through the coins or do you or do you participate in it through the companies that are innovating? So both is the answer. Right. I'll take both exits aside. Okay. So every time a stock or a bond or stablecoin moves over a network like like the theory of Merstalana, you have to pay a small fee. Now the fee is very small. It's like a pen. But those pennies can add up. They're used to buy back the underlying asset. So it creates like a buyback like mechanism, which drives the value of their assets higher. So you have something like Solana, which has a good chance of supporting a huge amount of the world's stablecoin and tokenization traffic. It's valued at something like 40 billion dollars, but it could have substantial revenue as all those assets move on there and towards Mike's point earlier, when you add AI on top of that, which is far more likely to transact with digitally native assets than the traditional system. And it's likely to do it at a scale that is you know, 10, 20, 30 X bigger than we're doing today. You get a high amount of volume activity that can drive real value in those networks. At the same time, you have companies that are using these rails to reinvent traditional finance in a way that's cheaper. And they're doing extraordinarily well. You look at a publicly traded company like Figure, which is using blockchain based rails to lower the cost of doing a HELOC from a few thousand dollars to a few hundred dollars. And they're eating market share. You look at something like a startup like RE, which is using stablecoins at blockchains based rails to reinvent reinsurance. And they're winning market share as well. So you can play it through the companies. You can play it through the tokens. I like to hold both in my portfolio because it's a relatively small universe and why not have exposure to this. You got sort of two different prongs or four different prongs parts. You've got a scarce asset Bitcoin. You've got assets that actually will have cash flows. All of which are you know, sort of valued at pretty low total market caps, if you will. And then so what is it that that is it just the empathy in the market currently that's that you're seeing as being the main sort of distraction from the allocations that that might come through. Is it something else or are we are we waiting for this legislative clarity still like there are a few hanging chads and they sort of say we're waiting for this waiting for this. But it feels to me like we're just going through the normal course process of the bottoming of an asset that's gone through a correction. But what are you seeing otherwise or anything else there that's this. Yeah, it's a great question. I think it's mostly that I think we're mostly going through a cyclical bottoming pattern that's happened before right crypto has moved in these four year cycles and still that till that stops happening you should expect that to keep happening it hasn't stopped happening. So it looks like it's going through that this is the classic thing. I think the two other factors are look we have AI which is like a black hole for capital that is taking capital from all other assets. So if you have a retail investor making a marginal decision, it's much easier to buy AI than it is to invest in this contrary and asset which is crypto and that's going to be true until it stops being true but it won't be true forever. But I do think it is a black hole that's vacuuming up other assets. And then there's this third piece which I've been thinking about a lot which is a little bit of the boy who cried wolf is true for crypto which is for the last 10 years we've sat on the sidelines shouting we're reinventing finance we're reinventing finance and then people would look underneath the hood and you'd be like, ah, well not really there are no major companies doing this and we did that for 10 consecutive years. And now it's true right now Goldman Sachs has 200 people working on blockchain and JP Morgan has a whole division in black rocks largest fund as a crypto fund and every major financial institution is building in this space and the regulation is aligned and the EU is approving stablecoins in Japan. Like now it's actually all happening but because we shouted it from the hilltops for 10 years I think people are like, well I don't believe you anymore. And so that makes it this thing where it has to it has to get sort of overwhelming scale before people re-evaluate it. So I do think part of it is the boy who cried wolf for investors who can be fact based. That's a real opportunity because you can look at the stablecoin activity and see wow that is really reaching takeoff scale. You can look at remittances to Mexico and be like wow it's gone from two to four to six to 10% of all remittances done on stablecoins. You can look at what's going on tokenization and saying that's up 600% in the last 12 months that's like really a big deal but no one's paying attention because they've heard the story before and they sort of dismissed it. On top of that you've got what's the name is it Paul Armstrong head of SEC is that is that Paul Aguins. Yeah. Aguins. Aguins. Yeah. Yeah. I mean you got him saying we're going to tokenize all stock spawns money market. Like we're going to do this. Not not we're sort of going to do it. No we're doing it. Not only that but you know we're having conversations with the national securities clearing corporation about how we're going to adjust our trading and we trade you know ETFs and futures and derivatives because of what's happening with with the digital reorganization and tokenization of all these securities. I'm like this train is coming down the track. It's well articulated. It's well for it's in the forecast they are doing it. You know the national securities clearing corporation is going to operate on tokenized rails. I love that you brought that on. Yeah. Just think it got that. Think about the chair of the SEC saying all assets will be tokenized in the next handful of years and the CEO of Goldman Sachs saying the same thing and the CEO of BlackRock saying the same thing. Paul Aguins said this is the biggest update to our global financial system since we went from floor base to digital trading and the fourth biggest of all time like this is a once in a generation transition and they're telegraphing it and it's not reflected in prices. I think it's really pretty a pretty extraordinary series of things. Yeah. It makes me very excited. It does take time. There are a lot of regulations that just have to change. We just saw the SEC propose pulling back from Reagan MS in certain ways in terms of the ordering you have all these little details that have to happen, but they're all happening. I think it's a tidal way of the truly going to catch some people off guard. Yeah. How does it actually like when you when you you talked a lot of advisers meant who are on board and what's the reaction to that? What like what's the you know they concerned or are they excited? Are they happy about it? You know are they wondering like what does this do to my business? Well, all of that. Yes. Yeah. They're concerned because it's changing as you guys know. They're excited about it because they feel like that they're on the cutting edge and they desperately want to know what it will mean for their business because that's that's core to what they do. And I do think like look I'm bullish on the advisory business, but I do think it's going to change in many interesting ways. And specific to this, I think the digitization of assets, what we see in crypto is it changes how people use assets in some really interesting ways. You no longer have many assets sitting passive in portfolios. They're used as collateral in lots of interesting ways. So I think for the the savvy advisor, it's a generational opportunity for a stuck in the mud advisor, they're probably worried and they don't want it to change. Right. But that's that's that's very similar to other transitions that we've seen in financial markets. There'll be a group that gets it. They'll do extremely well. And there'll be a group that doesn't which fades over time. I think that will be true here too. That's by design. I think that's that's the science revolution one death at a time. Right? That that and I'm not sure why you know whether you're a boomer, whatever the generation is doesn't even matter what the generation is. I just hear you know, well, when I was a kid or when I was younger, things were cheaper. And when I was younger, we you know said, you know, I can't we can't even talk about a stamp to to a proxy for inflation now because there are no stamps. You don't mail anything anymore. Like I mean, if we're going to we're going to fight the technological revolution, let's just go back to the cave and and heat the meat and and give back our friends and our cars. Like I don't understand how the human race cannot be always at the edge of innovation, but that's that's my proclivity. Yeah. And I in it as an as an exer, you know, white our generation is kind of skewed that way a little bit. But you know, there's lots of us lots of older folks that tend to want to fight this constant evolution. And I'm I'm always kind of tad tilted at it because I'm like, well, do you want to go back to horse and buggy? Like, what is that better? Well, as a listen, you know, we as an exer, as an exer, we've seen it all right. We've seen both the analog and the digital world, you know, when we were, you know, doing research as as as as youngs. Yeah. We had to go to the library, you know, you had to go and read books. You had to go and take notes and find the books on the shelves and the stocks. All right. It's 100% right. I actually think it's why you see a lot of a lot of genx people and people from the ETF industry move into crypto because they've seen this before. Like, they had the new technologies met with skepticism. They've seen new technologies that are sometimes difficult to use. I remember looking up websites in a book. It's like, I'll remain. Okay, I've never even heard of that. It would be, it would be voting the thing. They would publish these directories of websites 'cause there was no useful search. I remember doing it at college, and then you would type them in. So, but you see that like a digital tends to be inevitable. Ease of use tends to improve. And you can get major shifts over time. And the people who adapt to that end to win, right? We all live through ETFs taking over from each old fund. And not everyone believed in that in the early 2000s, right? Some people said, no, I don't need it. I'll stick with mutual funds. And that didn't, that didn't win out, right? This is the direction the technology goes. So I think we're all uniquely positioned to, to imagine how this plays out. Yeah, it was helpful. First it's ridiculed and it's violently opposed. That's right. And then it's self evident. It's crazy, too, because as a use case, like some people struggle with the use case, right? And so, okay, well, we're going to digitize stocks. What does that do, really? And it's like, no, you don't get it. You have total custody clarity. You know the assets that you have. You know that they're not in Cumber. You know they haven't been re-hypothicated. And it gets better. Right? What's the settlement? Why do we have T+? We have T+ because we have antiquated shit. But we have to fix all the time over a day or two. We need a day or two to fix it. So you know, you went through the Ethereum example or a Salonet, it doesn't matter which. But so you now have total custodial clarity. That's one thing that's great. But you've also taken away the settlement layer. So the velocity of money itself goes from, it goes up almost infinitely because you go from a two to one to five day settlement depending on if you're in the real estate world, sometimes even longer, to the 30 seconds to one minute. And that is money that settles everywhere. It's not, you know, I'm trying to send money to Malaysia. And it's a Friday. And so my bank is going to close. Their bank's not even open until like three days from now. Plus I've got the two day bank settlement nonsense to go through. And so as a corporation, think about what that does. A light went on for me. We have a group in, in Cayman that does a lot of crypto. And one of their biggest clients is in fact a casino. The quintessential law of large numbers place. And you know, let's say you're a casino operator and you own some casinos in Macau and you own some casinos in Vegas. Now you have to keep capital in both of those columns all the time because you may have the payout, a big winner, which is a big loser to you. Even in your law of large numbers, you've got five casinos in Vegas and you've got five in Macau. It doesn't matter. It's still sometimes you get these big outlier events. And you have to keep capital to be able to pay those people. Domestial in that area because you can't move it from the big loser that was in Macau that paid you off in your law of large numbers. You can't get that money to Vegas for three, four days. That's right. But it can be done instantaneously over the blockchain. And so what these betting agencies or these casino operations have done is they've centralized the capital management into one digital place. Now they've taken all of those locations, all of that capital and all of those different currencies. And they pulled it all together. And now they don't need ten different pillars of money across ten jurisdictions they need one. They just became 90% more capital efficient. Those casinos are running at a much higher return on equity because of that. Now that's a good example from a casino perspective, right? Okay, law of large numbers. We see how that works. But it doesn't matter. Your tire guy who's trying to pay for Malaysian rubber who's trying to ship it across. The thing has got the same challenges. And so all of a sudden this one to five day settlement layer goes to zero. And then the velocity of money increases dramatically. There is no defaults on shit. Because you have total clarity. And to me, by looking at this guy, I don't even know how the price is going down. The funny thing, we're going to have to post this several more times because given where we are in the cycle, there's probably our moms and maybe our lost brother who loves Bitcoin. Those are five people that will listen to this today. That's the interesting, Mike. I think the casino example you just get. I mean, you can see how you could take that and apply it to the financial system to trading markets. While you were talking, I was just thinking back, reflecting back on when stocks were traded in fractions, 16s and 8s and quarters. I was remembering that and thinking, what did it feel like when it got decimalized? And then now it has gotten fractionalized. Not fractions like what I was saying earlier, but the decimals have been reduced to thousands where now you can buy any quantity of stock for $1 or $10 or $50 million, it doesn't matter. We've gone through those transitions, right? But people are hanging on to this idea that I think there's this skepticism about how it's not real. It's the matrix. But we're already in it. In that respect, all these things were already in place. They just haven't made the cross the bridge into the blockchain yet. Right? And that's such a good example. The crazy thing is it's actually more real. I mean, if you take ownership of a stock in a blockchain-based system, you can actually own the stock. In the traditional system, you own a beneficial interest granted to you by Schwab for a paper certificate that's in seeding code that they've dematerialized. I mean, actually, if you get underneath the surface, it's this crazy fugazi of distributed ownership. And in a blockchain, you can just own it. I often like to tell people that if you just invert these objections, you see how crazy the existing world is. Imagine we were in a world where dollars settled instantly. And someone was like, well, actually, we should build in a two-day settlement delay. You'd be like, that's a zipper, right? Or like that banks close and you can't move money on weekends. And someone's like, I have a new idea. We'll close on weekends and holidays. And the world will work better. You'd be like, that's insane. So often when you invert these situations, you realize how unusual the existing system is and how inevitable this new system is for the casino-like example that you get. This is the thing. It's inevitable. We're talking about capital markets. Capital markets don't eff around. When there's better ways to do things, they're going to do the better way. Bitcoin has survived every death knell. They've tried to kill it multiple times. They've tried to kill tokenization multiple times. It's not dying because it's legitimately a better way to actually do all of the things we're doing. And we have to go through the process of people dying that did it the old way, that have all the vested interests, that have all the lobby interests. You're seeing the negotiation between the stable coins and the banks. And I'm like, oh my God, could there be a more obvious lobby against the consumer? Like I don't understand. Good. We don't want to pay interest on bank accounts. And so you can't pay interest on stable coins. But the most ridiculous consumer protection stance I've ever heard. But that's a very strong lobby. There's a lot of people, a lot of generations that have been, you need to be able to solve our nations, need some sort of banking. So there's a lot to that, the old conversation. But again, when something is superior and it functions in the way it's functioning, in capitalism it kind of becomes inevitable. I mean, unless something else can come in and create obsolescence for tokenization, that's possible. I mean, I don't know what the AI world could do. But this moment in time, gosh, this is just a better way to do everything. Yeah. Exactly right. Go ahead, Pierre. I can't help thinking like that, you know, we're looking at AI, for example, as this revolution, you know, maybe quantum is another revolution down the road when it comes to pass. But I don't think many of us are looking. I think those of us who know that the application layer of crypto and the rails and the system, you know, the transformation we're talking about in the financial system is gigantic in scope. And we're not looking at it through the same lens as we look at AI. Yeah. But to your point, Matt, I mean, the one thing you said that was interesting was, you know, distributed ownership. And you mentioned distributed ownership that, you know, do you actually own? the stock that you bought, do you actually have it in your possession? And the answer is no. You don't. You just have a proxy for it or some signal on your computer that says, you won't, you know, this is set aside for you. But we have it in our system on your behalf. Right. So everything is on your behalf. But in the crypto, in the blockchain system, you actually can take possession of it. Yeah. It's it's it's it's actually put it on a digital wallet and bury it and it's clean and it's yours. And you can use it as collateral. I think I think a good analogy to tie to the gen X. I think it's like, you know, the internet in 2003. You had the big level of excitement. You're in a cell off. So people are skeptical of it, but people who know can see the power of the long-term technology. And I think that's going to be massively disruptive. I think that's true of this application layer of crypto as well. And I think that's a really unique opportunity, right? These are substantially marked down assets on a secular theme that is growing exceptionally fast. I mean, I encourage a listener to pull a chart of tokenized asset. It looks, you know, it's a bit of a moral. It looks straight up. It's parabolic. Because it's just inherently faster, cheaper, better, more direct. Just this. That's why everyone's building on the space. That's why the SEC chair says all assets are going to be this way in five years. And, you know, he crazed. He probably worth listening to him, right? He's the most important financial regulator in the world. There may be some truth into what he says. I do think that is an overlooked mega trend. I'm just laughing about what Mike said now that there's which was five people, five people in a five people around. Well, you believe who buys this? It's a concept. I've always, I did you saw the guys at the compound and they were talking about that, whatever Tom Lee on or something. Like no one's going to listen to this. Everyone hates it. Nor we talk about it. They're fun. I do. It is the time. It is the time to talk about it. It's the time to be. But through crawl, how many people are I then running? How many people are actually paying, you know, how many of us, something like what percentage of people even in the business are paying attention to this? Yeah. Like they hear the rumbling. They hear the, you know, the rumor mill. They hear the scottal butt, you know, and all the skepticism all wrapped up together. But I have a feeling they just simply don't understand it, not yet anyway. I think that's true. Well, they haven't felt it. Many of them haven't done it. I do think there's a visceral experience. The first time you use one of these platforms is like, wow, that's incredible, right? The first time I often show people, Ava, which is a borrowing and lending protocol and how you like click two buttons and you're earning interest instantaneously and, you know, show them like, like literally the next 30 seconds we could be there, deposit money and be earning interest. Meaning that at your bank and then seeing the interest to crew. First of all, they don't pay interest. Second, if they do, it doesn't happen on a second by second basis. So I think part of the reason is they haven't experienced it viscerally, but they will soon, right? You're going to start to see this happen at an increasing rate. I'm just thinking about the bank that we, the bank that we bank at for the company. Their commercial account has a direct wiring facility that we use, like so we can wire funds to another bank right from our bank account directly. I'm not suggesting that's something that's still new, but when we started doing this, when we started using this bank, I think it's 10 years ago now, that was extraordinary. Otherwise, if you wanted to wire money to somebody, you had to go into the brand and she had to fill out a form, you had to do all this stuff manually or at least tell the teller or the manager, the client manager to do it for you. So when we suddenly had the ability to just go right into our own bank account and wire a funds directly to another customer to pay an invoice or something, that was so exciting to be able to do that instantly, right from, and not have to go to the bank and do all that manual stuff, right? So I just, and it's to your point, Matt, that once people have an experience with this decentralized finance application layer, whatever that experiences their first time, it's hard to unsee it and it's hard to go back. It's hard to think, I don't want to do it any other way. Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And it's getting closer and closer and you're seeing more integration, so more and more people will have that experience, whether it's moving money on a weekend or posting a stock as collateral and borrowing against it, which is extraordinarily challenging in traditional markets and extraordinarily easy in crypto markets. So I think people are going to have those experiences that are even increasing, increasing pace. My wife's actually written a set of children's books and they all indirectly, not all, several of them indirectly deal with explaining tokenization. Matt, I'm going to send you these. So I'm going to get your address. I mean, you're at it. I'm going to send you these books because they're great from the standpoint of it's for kids, but it's also for adults. Yeah, I love it. I mean, wait. Yeah, everybody. Absolutely. So the other funny thing in the sort of old system to new system, I got to go back and then I want you to dig in on some actual crypto layers, but I remember getting into this business in like the late 80s. That's how old I am early 90s. And in the early part of my career, I had people come in with actual stock certificates. They had the bond coupons that didn't clip like this is actually this is my, you know, being an exer. I actually have some analog history. Now why did this silent slash great generation have their stock certificates wrapped in tin foil in their freezer? Anyone have an idea of why it's called the Great Depression where all the banks actually went under and because they were re-hypothicating assets at a very high rate, the banks went bust. And so the idea of custodial certainty for those generations was incredibly important. Fast forward 100 years since the Great Depression. And we've got this kind of as we've outlined somewhat fougaisy, possibly ways in which we allocate, you know, schwa bones it, but they clear the actual essential clearing corporation keeps most of it. And they just trade what everyone does every day. And you know, if you're, if your corporation holding those securities goes bankrupt and you think that, oh, I have it in a cash account and my stuff is safe, that's actually untrue. Bankruptcy law takes over. Bankruptcy law has a different set of standards. And so when I hear that nonsense, I'm like, you have a dud deeply enough and we haven't had that earth shattering event like a, like a great depression where, you know, actually owning the assets, having the physical certificates or apt and tin foil in your freezer, it was a way to have an actual custodial holding of your, of your asset. Yeah. It's funny how we're kind of coming through full circle. Either you could own it on blockchain or have them deliver your certificates and put them in your freezer. It's that way your house burns down. The, if anyone doesn't know this, when your house burns down, actually, what's in your freezer actually kind of survives, half the time. And there you go. That's why you put it there. Hey, we came pretty, we came pretty close in 2000. Yes. In 2009. In 2008, of course. Yeah. Yeah, we did. We came pretty close. I'm wondering if we couldn't shift gears a little bit now, Matt, and let's, let's kind of walk through in a little bit more detail. So we, we've talked a bit about Bitcoin. We've talked a little bit about Ethereum and transactions. But maybe let's go a little deeper for those who have been around crypto for a while. Let's start to talk about the intersection of tokenization and AI and agentech work and the different layers, right? How does Bitcoin play a role? What's Ethereum and Salinas role? Then, then what does something like BitTensor do or how? And how does chain length fit in? And you know, this is the idea of proof of human agentech work. Do you have a minute to kind of go through that and lay that out for us a little bit? Because you talk about this a lot, or I've seen, I've seen you write about it a little bit too. And I think it would be helpful for some people to understand the sort of simultaneous layers between what's happening in tokenization and how that's complemented by what might be going on in the world of AI. Yeah, absolutely. We're very early in this phase. But if you think of it big picture, if you imagine that the world is increasingly agentech and that AI-driven agents will be doing transactions on our behalf and on their own behalf increasingly in complex ways into the future. So I think the probability of that is close to 100%. Right. We're probably at 0.01% now and it's going to be a huge part of our future. A few things are true. true from that and then we'll get to crypto. The first, which I mentioned earlier, is that the scale of transaction activity is going to go through the roof. Because these agents will be able to transact 24/7, 365, they'll always be looking for optimizations in a way that you and I may look for an optimized flight once, but they will always be adjusting that. And they're an infinite number of varieties of those. So exponentially more applications, 24/7, 365 on a global basis. So that's the foundation. The reason people in crypto are excited about that is because you can ask yourself, is it more likely for an AI agent to walk to your bank and conduct a transaction or to interact with a software service using code? And the answer is they're more likely to interact with the software service using code. Right, so most likely they're going to be using blockchain based rails. Are they more likely to open a bank account or use stablecoins? They're more likely use stablecoins. Are they more likely to hold physical gold? Or Bitcoin, they're more likely to hold physical gold. And so the 30,000 foot view is that the direction of finance is in an agentic angle, and that direction means digital native, which means blockchain. That's the big picture view. In terms of where the stack does, Bitcoin has sort of two plays on this that people get excited about. The first is the example I just gave you, which is if they're looking for a native non-fee-based asset, they're probably going to reach for Bitcoin and not gold. Now they may reach for tokenized gold, but chances are they'll reach for Bitcoin. The other angle is that if AI leads to real abundance, scarce assets are going to be more valuable than ever. Mike, you mentioned a coastal real estate. That's probably a good investment in an abundant AI future. So probably is gold and so probably is digital gold, which is Bitcoin. The more direct plays are the other things. So Ethereum, Solana, and other layer ones, which are the platforms on which these transactions place take place. And you could think of them as toll roads. The more people who drive through the toll, the more transactions are paid, the higher the revenue and the higher the value of that toll road. The idea, the reason why AI is exciting is because instead of having five billion humans on it, you could have 500 billion agents. And so the toll road is about to get more crowded. The transaction activity is about to get a lot higher. The revenue potential is significantly higher. That's great. And then you have these other plays that are related to it. You mentioned Chainlink. The right mental model for someone thinking about Chainlink is it's like the Bloomberg for blockchains. If you have a stock that's trading on Solana, Solana is like a spreadsheet. If you ask an Excel spreadsheet, the price of Tesla stock is, it doesn't know. You need a way to find out the price of Tesla stock. Chainlink is a link between a blockchain and the real world. It provides that kind of information. So the extent that we have more real world assets interacting with blockchains, Chainlink is going to thrive because it is the service that dominates providing real world information. Now it does other things as well, but that's a big piece of what it does. And so I think that will do well as well. And then you get to more AI-specific assets. So you mentioned Tau, which is the ticker for bit tensor, is a decentralized AI marketplace that makes inference and other things available on a decentralized basis. Some other assets in the space that are worth noting, you mentioned proof of human world, or what used to be called world coin, is an asset that was developed in part by Sam Altman that allows you to prove that you're a human and a unique human in a digital world, which could be increasingly valuable. But I think that's the 30,000-foot-view. And there are a few more layers to it that people get interested. But those are some of the big picture layers. Bitcoin has digital scarcity in that world. Ethereum, Salana, and other L1s, it's the toll roads. Chainlink as an example of an information provider. And then AI-specific assets like Tau, like Venice, like world coin, et cetera. Look, there'll be a moment where a genetic finance is the hot thing in the world. The same way there's been a moment where like memory stocks were a hot thing and in video is a hot thing and space is a hot, there will be a moment where everyone is talking about a genetic finance. And these are the assets that are going to benefit when that moment rolls around. - Love it. And it is somewhat, I mean, to some degree, it is inevitable. Like you say, this is the very early days of this journey. But as you lay out the future, I don't think it's going to be less digitized. I think it's probably going to be more digitized and more work 24/7 being done by autonomous agents in that world. So I think that's a very interesting angle, longer term. If you can be a long-term investor, I don't know for what that's worth. - It makes sense from the perspective that the three of us here are Gen X and we can manage between both worlds, right? We're happy to do the analog stuff if we have to 'cause we can. And we're happy to do that. We're probably more happy to do the digital stuff because we can do both. But how many generations, what generations that come, our contemporaries come after us can? If they have, if they have, if they're digital natives, then you're right. The odds that digital will increase is all but certain. - It's almost infinite. - Yeah. - And there's actually another demographic important thing underpinning this, which is 10 years from now, the person who's a managing director at Goldman Sachs grew up in a tokenization native world, right? Day that person is a Gen Xer and they've seen both sides and so they're weighing things. But 10 years from now, the choice of tokenized world or non-tokenized world is going to be a no-brainer. The analogy I make is again to the ETF space. We all saw this in ETFs. The people who were early in ETFs are now leading the asset managers across the world. And so they're all defaulting to build an ETFs. The same demographic trend is pushing this as well. - And so where does that leave? Okay, we come back to, let's talk about, rubber hits the road. Most of our target market for you and us is registered investment advisors. And so they're processing this to both of them have listened to this podcast. (laughing) And we just, whether it's the others, yeah, what are the, I'm teasing, of course. But what are the takeaways? What can we, we've talked about a lot, but we have these advisors. They're talking about these assets with clients. I'll give a plug for return stack on the side of things. We've got an advisor guide to client conversations around Bitcoin and Gold. So if you want something like that, it's helpful. It's not product oriented at all. It is oriented towards, here's how you have these discussions with clients. So I'll point that as a small resource, I think bitwise in your self-mit, you guys have just a lot of really good supporting evidence, whether it's the add 2% to the portfolio, how does it change the portfolio, all those types of things. And so there's an educational element and maybe you can walk through, what are the key components that you're seeing used with success today as advisors are going out and talking with clients at this opportune time to start thinking about this. 'Cause honestly, you know, you go back to October of last year, that's probably, you've got to know that you're in the SpaceX moment when you're starting your allocation. I mean, a little bit. Had to be niggling at you a little bit. For sure. So now you're in a bit of a winner where you can start accumulating over time, slowly, gracefully, you know, not making it too big, but you have an opportunity here. So how do we help move those advisors, to help move those clients in a direction that might be helpful for their longer term, returns and balance in their portfolio? - Yeah, I love the question. I mean, I would say two things, which we've touched on here. The first is a reminder that it's part of the capital market, right? Again, I go back to equities are 110 trillion cryptos too. So the neutral position is not zero. It should be, you know, the neutral position is in the one to two percent range. And then you can be bullish or bearish from that. But resetting on that view, I think is important. The second thing I'll say, and then we'll talk about resources, is that this is a pretty unique moment in crypto. For most of crypto's history, the hype has been bigger than the reality. We're gonna change all finance and there's like 30 million dollars of stablecoins or all stocks will be tokenized and the regulations haven't adapted to it. But actually that situation is reversed now, where you have the chair of the SEC saying all assets will move on chain and traditional investors are like covering their ears. covering their eyes and pretending it's not happening. That's a really exciting moment, where the fundamentals are way above the recent price trends. And I think there is a good case to be made that if you have a diversified portfolio that doesn't hold crypto, you're missing one of the important mega trends that take place, which is we're reinventing finance on chain. And maybe you want some exposure to that. I do think our two firms have really good resources and consulting those resources, realizing that this is not going away. In fact, the largest financial institutions are increasingly building in this space. And maybe you want to have a small allocation particularly at these low levels. I just think it's an extraordinarily attractive moment for people to, again, not put in 50% of your portfolio or not saying anything like that. Just that this has a place in portfolios and that's a really exciting trend that's maybe underweighted by the market right now. - Is there any pieces in particular that you think would be quite helpful today? You know, advisors sitting there going, I see this down, but how am I going to have a conversation with my client on this? Much like the institutions, right? They got over the thing and they're like, well, we've done the eight meetings, we've got to allocate. And when you're one short, you're like, I'm not doing anything. And I mean, I get the behavioral side of why, but how can we help those advisors move those clients in a direction that is in that, you know, it moving off of zero if will or rebalancing back up to target way or how is there, what are the resources that can help get them? - Yeah, I'll call it a two it bitwise. You know, you mentioned our study which looks at the role of crypto and a portfolio. I think that's really helpful. It demonstrates in part that even during markets where the price pulls back, having an allocation and rebalancing is actually boosted your risk adjusted returns. So even in the thing you're worried about, which is the market selling off because it's low correlated and you have a rebalancing tolerance, it's actually helpful for portfolio. And so I think that can give a lot of confidence. You know, it demonstrates that there's never been a three year period in Bitcoin's history. We're adding it to a portfolio and rebalancing and boost your absolute risk adjusted returns. So there's a lot of data behind this allocation. Maybe you think this time is different, but unless this time is different, there's a lot of data that supports where you're going. The other, I'd point to a tool on our website too, that's free, which is you can put in your personal portfolio and then add a small amount of crypto and rebalance it over any standard, any rebalancing tolerance, any period of time and see how it would have done. So maybe a nice step is to take your actual, like get out of the theoretical, take your actual portfolio and ask yourselves, well, what would it look like over the last two years with all the volatility we've seen? Go and do that. The last thing I'd shout out is I try to write a weekly memo in practice, it's like 45 weeks of the year 'cause I'm a human. But you can sign up for that as well, which is free, it's called the CIO memo. It's good wise, I make it short, like 800 words 'cause I know you have a lot going on, but it tries to talk about the biggest sort of thought that I'm having about the crypto market at any point in time. Yeah, I highly recommend that to everybody. Just to make sure you're on Matt's CIO insight on the weekly, it is just great to keep you informed of what's going on. And I think also getting a little drip of something, 500, 800 words will keep you updated. Keep one eye on that ball 'cause advisors have a lot of asset classes to look at, but I think Matt, but that weekly newsletter is fantastic. There's always a little bit of education in there. There's always a little bit of viewpoint what's happening in the world. And it's a great way to drip on yourself for knowledge. So as you're an advisor trying to stay up with this field, as well as doing all the things that you would do as an advisor, this is a great way to just get a weekly check in and see what research is coming out from Bitwise as well. You know, you guys also have been very innovative on the product side. So I'm wondering if there's anything that you want to mention on that side that would be particularly interesting that you guys have gone to hopper. I, as I said, I kind of love the market cap idea, but I think you do have something like that or I can't. We do. We have other than that process. Maybe it's funny. You mentioned the product side. We have a lot of products. We launched some assets that I'm really excited about. Single asset funds on applications like hyperliquid and things which are doing really well. My favorite product was our first product, which was the first crypto index fund, because it holds the 10 largest assets. It screens out assets like Dogecoin or assets with specific risks that we don't think are appropriate. But otherwise, it's just the market. And it's not right for everybody, but if you just want exposure to the market that updates, that's been managed, that has an eight-year track record, I think that index fund, BITW, it's my largest personal crypto holding. And I think it's a great place to start, because at least you have exposure to the majors. And then you can tweak from there if you have specific views. Yeah. If you're a efficient market hypothesis individual, then of course you wouldn't even have zero percent allocation to Bingoin. It would be in the war or it to digitalize. So it would be, of course, it would be in the one to two percent range. I mean, if you're an efficient market hypothesis person, which many people proclaim to be, you'd also have global equities, but anyway. Then you'd have a market cap waiting and you'd let the market cap adjust. And I think that's a great, bring bottle to the party. It worked in US equities. Maybe we can take some wisdom from that. So let's let the market dictate what the allocation should be based on the capitalization. It's not that idea. If you're going to be like really parsimonious and say, what's the market cap and then what's the market cap? What's the global market cap and asset classes? How should I allocate that? You know, that was market cap. It's got a lot of a lot of good research behind that as well. It does indeed. It doesn't eat. And is that where they can find you at BITWISE? Yeah, is there other ways they should look for you guys? Two places. So go to BITWISEinvestments.com. Again, look for that CIO memo. We promise if you sign up for that, we don't stend you other things. That's all you get. So we won't overwhelm you with marketing. If you sign up for the CIO memo, you get the weekly memo. And that's it. The other place to look for me is on X. Matt_Hogan. If you're listening, my name has a you in it for reasons that aren't clear to anyone. It's HOU, VAN. So it's Matt_HOUGAN. You can find me there. I'm up to some French heritage or something. It's some Norwegian. No, there's Norwegian. There we go. I don't know, man. I'm liking it. So if I can get me easier to get you know, hogan.com and all the URLs. So I get there's a there's a most hey, so they're lighting and so we're lighting for that. So Matt, Matt, thank you so much for for joining us today. And you've I have to say you you've reignited my enthusiasm. That's I think here. That's beautiful to hear. Well, this was this was a huge amount of fun. You guys are always some of the most open-minded and thoughtful on this space in the in the advisor community. So thanks for having me. [Music]

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Bitcoin is down approximately 50% from its highs, marking a "crypto winter," but Matt Hogan argues this is the "best winter ever" with less severe drawdowns, lower volatility, and no major systemic collapses compared to past cycles (e.g., FTX, Mt. Gox).
  2. Underlying adoption is progressing
  3. Institutional investors who already allocated before the pullback are using the dip to add positions, while those on the fence are waiting for a bottom, creating a behavioral divide.
  4. Retail investors are distracted by other shiny objects like AI and IPOs (e.g., SpaceX), which are sucking capital and attention away from crypto.
  5. Agentic AI is a potential future catalyst
  6. Matt advises a "crawl, walk, run" approach
  7. The neutral allocation for crypto, given its ~$2 trillion market cap versus $110 trillion in equities, is around 1-2%, not zero, even for those without a strong opinion.

Summary:

In this episode of "Raise Your Average," hosts Pierre Daly and Mike Filbert interview Matt Hogan, CIO of Bitwise Asset Management, about the current state of crypto in 2026. Despite Bitcoin trading at roughly $62,000—over 50% below its all-time high—Hogan reframes this "crypto winter" as the most constructive downturn yet. He notes that previous winters saw 70-80% declines and catastrophic failures like FTX or Mt.

Gox, whereas this cycle has lower volatility and no existential blowups. Crucially, foundational developments continue unabated: stablecoins are gaining real-world traction, tokenization is being embraced by major financial institutions, and regulatory frameworks like the GENIUS Act are advancing through Congress. Hogan highlights a behavioral split among investors: those with existing allocations are adding during the dip, while fence-sitters delay due to career risk and fear of catching a falling knife.

, 1%) and defending it by rebalancing during downturns, rather than trying to time the bottom. He also points to future catalysts, particularly agentic AI, where autonomous agents without bank accounts may increasingly rely on blockchain for payments, a trend not yet priced into markets. Hogan emphasizes that crypto, at roughly $2 trillion versus $110 trillion in global equities, warrants a neutral allocation of 1-2% for most portfolios, not zero.

The hosts echo this, noting that while the price action is painful, the underlying ecosystem is stronger than ever, making this a potential opportunity for disciplined investors.

FAQs

Matt Hogan describes it as the 'best winter ever' because Bitcoin is down less than previous winters, volatility is lower, and the regulatory environment is better. He believes the ecosystem is strengthening despite the price decline.

It differs because there haven't been major blowups like FTX or Mt. Gox, and real adoption is happening with stablecoins, tokenization, and institutional building on blockchain. The price decline is less severe than the 70-80% drops in past winters.

Investors should manage their behavior, maintain a small defensible position, and top it back up to their target allocation during dips. Using systematic programs or sticky notes with buy prices can help overcome emotional hesitation.

Matt suggests that if you don't have an opinion, the neutral position is around 1-2% of a portfolio, since crypto is part of the world's capital markets. A 1% allocation can only lose 1%, so it's not a portfolio risk.

Institutions that had already allocated before the pullback are adding to their positions, while those who were close to allocating are holding off to wait for a bottom. This creates a divergence where insiders buy and outsiders wait.

Stablecoins and tokenization are seeing real-world adoption, with companies like BlackRock and Goldman building on blockchain. These developments are strengthening the ecosystem even as prices fall, signaling long-term growth.

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