Whoops! This MAGA Blowhard Made a $1 Million Bet on Oil Prices Going Down

Hey, everybody, it's Tim Miller of The Bullwark. I've got more bad news today for the Republicans midterm prospects and we can tie it to the potentially really bad news for Megapodcaster and radio host Clay Travis. He of the Stolen Cheesecake Factory Valor from my conversation with Pablo Torre. If you missed that, we'll remind you about it here in a minute. But back in April, Clay and I had a little social media disagreement about the Iran War of Choice and what the impact was going to be on voters heading into the midterms. And I had analyzed that I think that it is going to be a disaster for gas prices that reopening the straight-of-form is is going to be a lot harder than people think that insurance rates are going to continue to be high. It's going to take a long time to get supply chains running smoothly, just like we saw with COVID, like even after the vaccine and COVID was dissipating. It still took a long time to get the inflation to come back down because of supply chain issues. So, you know, this is all common sense stuff is stuff that I was learning from gas buddy and my friends and oblots and actual experts also seen the actual experts. You know what Clay was just doing mega propaganda and talking about vibes. So anyway, I pointed that out and we had a little back and forth. If you pull up this post here from April of this year, Clay tweeted that gas prices will be lower than before the war. And I posted that I think that is going to be in the Clay Travis bad prediction Hall of Fame next to my personal favorite, the time he said that he would be surprised if we get into the thousands of COVID cases in the US. I mean, I was trying cases not deaths. We ended up having a million deaths in the country. Clay Travis would be surprised if we'd get a thousand cases and then still to this day acts like the heat and the mega ones were the right ones about COVID because there's too much mask because it's crouchy blah blah blah. No, you were as wrong as anybody could possibly be. You thought that there just only be a thousand cases. We ended up having a million deaths did a COVID. So wrong on that and I just looked at his gas prices and I was like, you know, I think this is going to be COVID over again, then Clay is going to be wrong all over again. And so I posted that he saw my tweet and he quote tweeted it with this, Tim, I'll bet you a million dollars that by this time next year call it April 1, 2027 gas prices will be lower than they were on February 27, 2026. If the price of oil is higher than $68 a barrel, you win lower than $68 a barrel, I win. So boy, I feel pretty good about winning that bet. Also, if we go ahead to April 1, but obviously it's only October 31. So we'll maybe check back in on that next year, but I don't know maybe after this video. I want to re up that I wonder how it feels about the projection of $68 a barrel oil next April. We'll see what he says. I replied to that by saying, OK, well, sure, you know, it's a little hard to project out to April of 2027. This was last, you know, earlier in the spring. But for politics sake, you know, I think that the more interesting question is our gas price is going to be back down before the midterms. And so I said, what is your thoughts on that? Will the stupid war lead to gas prices getting down before the midterms? And Claire replied to that with this. Just to mention, your deep concern over gas prices during the bind years, blah, blah, blah. He wasn't, yeah, he missed it because you weren't paying attention to what I said. But he goes on today. This is April 18th. We're at $84 a barrel. I will bet you $1 million that by November 1st of this year, prices will be under $84 a barrel on this metric. So that was Clay's bet. He said, I'll bet me $1 million that by November 1st, which is now tomorrow. Gas prices will be under $84 a barrel. So let's take a look. Let's see how the million dollar bet is looking using the metric that he asked for crude oil futures the price of a barrel of oil right now is $102.95. I'm taping this Saturday, October 31st in the afternoon. So when the clock strikes midnight tonight, Clay Travis is $1 million bet will be and out. He needs the price of oil to come down from $102.95 to under $84 a barrel in the next few hours. I think that we can call it. If you go back to see how I went back and looked when was the last time the gas prices were below $84 a barrel and it was late August. They tipped down to $83.40 on August 28th. And then by September 1, they're back up to $90 and they've been above that ever since chart is going up, up, up, up, up with no signs of relief. So what Donald Trump is talking about is escalating the war after the midterms. So we probably can imagine that the price will continue to go up from here. We will see. So Clay Travis he ends up being up by over 20% right now 22% higher than he predicted the response online to him has been withering. So James Carvell tweeted the following where I grew up a bet is a bet count me in for charity when Clay Travis lives up to his words. So there you go. I wasn't going to put my million dollars on the line while he's out there making bets willy nilly. I don't have that kind of scratch. It's funny that he has a million dollars to throw around, especially to tie it to the cheesecake factory discourse that we're going to get to in the guy earlier this week was like. The Democrats are so out of touch that they don't even understand that the cheese cake factory is a fancy meal and by the way, would you like to bet one million dollars? You know, regular people just don't have a melody to throw around, but I think I take Carvell's point. It was Clay that offered the bet he said he'd bet one million dollars if gas prices stayed above $84 and there are a lot of people that are suffering in Tennessee where he lives and around the country because of the high prices. And I think that it would be the honorable thing to do to donate that million dollars to a charitable organization in Tennessee or elsewhere. Can you travel organization of his choice people that are struggling financially right now and are getting squeezed by the rising gas prices and rising food prices that Clay cheered on. We've been some suggestions online some folks suggested Catholic charities maybe a veterans group in Tennessee food bank food bank does a story out about how food banks are dealing with unprecedented demand and like they're struggling as well right now because of the increased food costs and because. People aren't able to meet the family budget so you know maybe rather than doing cheesecake factory discourse that could be something that Clay could do that is useful since his $1 million bet was no bigel bigel like not even close 102 95. 22% higher than what he said was the ceiling we've just kind of shattered. That orange ceiling the clay clay Travis put above us I think it's important for kind of the context of this to see what he's saying on his own show around the same time about what he expects to happen with the world's watch. I feel very confident this is all going to be done by may one and I've been saying that for a little while you know the two to three week timeline Trump likes to publicly negotiate it could happen before then. But if you are out there and you're looking at oil and gas prices know a lot of people are I know what it feels like to look at those to stand there and think oh man this is way more than I anticipated I think they will start to come back down sooner rather than later. And as we get into the driving season of the summer I think there'll be reasonable relative to past years that's my prediction he expects us to solve me over and done with by may one pop pop. We got Donald Trump and Pete head so secretary of war and charge the high T guys we got the war fighters we got the adults in charge people know that they're doing. Not that a Google eight no bomb not those wimpy leftists we've got we've got tough guys in charge now this thing we'll just get down lie a tola we'll keep that straight open everything will be clear by like May 1st you know guys it might be that more more you'll they barbecue more expensive but that's you know the price of freedom. And this thing will be done by the summer that was clay that was clay and you think that somebody was just this wrong about like the big. The wrong about like the biggest issue of the year would have a little bit of self reflection a little bit of humility you know. So this to be all the time will Tim but you were wrong about Trump 2016 like yeah I was wrong I went through the wilderness I was I spent a lot of time thinking about okay what had I missed here you know. Maybe I should reflect upon my priors about what Republican voters want what voters more broadly want where's that reflection from the mega guys where's that reflection I mean he was so fucking cocky. He's like I'll put a million bucks on the line that these guys will handle the Iran war well. What possibly could have given him that level of confidence in these both of us. All the experts can like said all the foreign policy experts that I brought on my show even people who are anti the Iranian regime were like this is crazy this is going to weaken the US is going to strengthen our own. This is gonna be a quagmire. Anyone who was not a mega cultist or just kind of a just so blinded by their desire to overthrow the Iranian regime. This was mostly kind of the pro-Israel kind of neoconright. Like outside of those two groups, like Mark Lavin and Mark Tisen, and then like moron cultists like Clay and Buck. Like everybody else was like, this is going to be a, this is going to be very challenging. Like anybody who understands geopolitics or who understands the character of Donald Trump and Pete Heggs have knew that this was going to be a bumble fuck. And that's what it was. And so hopefully, you know, Clay will do the honorable thing and donate a million dollars to a group in need. You know, if he, if he bucks up the million carvel chip in, we'll chip in. I really should be him since he lost the bet that he offered. Just kind of closing the books and the Clay stuff here. Yeah, he did like a 12 minutes monologue on his show, the other day, responding to the investigation that Pablo Torre and I did. You know, he was talking about growing up, you know, he was a lover of the Cheesecake Factory and he was a working class kid. And this was an aspirational meal and the Cheesecake Factory is what he came up to the White House to look like because the Cheesecake Factory says success to him. And like, that's right. He just didn't feel right. And so, you know, a quick look at, you know, somebody tweeted this and a quick Google, you know, indicated that like, yeah, and the Cheesecake Factory didn't even open when he was a kid unless he went to California. And, and so this was not a thing for him growing up. And they kind of backtrack. He's like, I want GW though, GW. I was doing it in DC because I had one in DC. But I went to GW and I don't remember anybody going to the Cheesecake Factory and it's pretty far away from campus. But hey, well, doesn't even really count as growing up, you know, I don't, I don't say like, you know, growing up hitting the bong with my friends and thirst and haul. College is different. You talk about it differently. It's neither here nor there. Anyway, he's untilt about that and maybe has lost million dollars. And so he is going on and on about the Cheesecake Factory on his show. Let's watch actually a little super cut of him talking about it. Cheesecake Factory Gate. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory is a high end. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Meal. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. The green hills. Cheesecake Factory in Nashville. Cheesecake Factory. I've eaten at the Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. My in-laws took me to the Cheesecake Factory. God forbid. Clay Travis talk about the Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory. Cheesecake Factory is gold. I mean, you know, I guess if you're like an Iran war cheerleader and a Trump fluffer, there's not a lot of good stuff to talk about these days. So you end up sounding like that. It's like talking about this nonsense and John who stood ass all the time because like, what else are you going to say? And you can't brag about our success in the war. You can't brag about the economic success. You can't brag about how wrong you are about gas prices. You can't brag about the poll numbers. You know, it's bad out there if you're a mega content creator. So I guess you end up doing this. And then you end up kind of trying to like, and then you end up trying to contort and pervert this thing like we took one second googling me like, you're liar into like, oh my god, they're really investigating me. Let's watch. Let's watch Clay really get upset about the investigation that I did into his Cheesecake Factory lies. So the guy at the bull work, this guy Tim Miller, he decided, oh my god, we're going to investigate Clay Travis. He is lying about having grown up and eating at the Cheesecake Factory. I'm like, I mean, the Cheesecake Factory, basically my entire life. Now, do I know exactly what year it opened in Nashville? No, I do not. But I don't understand how this is a controversy. I would just ask him this. If you're going to investigate things, why don't you investigate Ilan Omar instead of worrying about the number of times that I've eaten at the Cheesecake Factory? Why don't you look at Ilan Omar? The Ilan Omar story. I don't know. Seems like there's a lot of people looking into the Ilan Omar story, including the Department of Justice, you know, basically every right-wing media outlet that's all they have to look into, we'll see what the facts are when it comes to Ilan Omar's immigration status. I don't think anyone will like it if the next Democratic administration decides to use the DOJ to look into 30-year-old immigration papers of mega figures. I don't know how Melania's going to like going back to Slovenia or Ilan's going to like going back to South Africa, who we can go on and on. I think that there's some questionable paperwork happening over there as well. But in my view, this is a land of milk and honey and if people want to come here and have an opportunity and pull themselves up by their bootstraps and have economic success like clay house. I know how they do it in a more honorable way than just becoming a total grifter hack. But you know, it's a great country. It's a great country or somebody that is a complete grifter hack that was completely wrong about COVID. It was completely wrong about the Iran War. It was football picks are wrong almost every week. That he can have the economic success that clay has. It does almost bring the tear to your eye, you know, about America. The American spirit experiment. Think about how much success you can have if you work hard and you're not wrong all the time. Man, this guy's the limit. Anyway, we'll see if he pays up. We'll see if he pays up. So go ahead and send the video over to Clay. See if he's willing to kind of, you know, back up his big talk and support people in his community or elsewhere in America who are suffering the consequences of this reckless work choice that is making their lives harder. So I appreciate you guys, subscribe to think go. That's a merch. Somebody just sent me the new bulwark hoodie. We got some new hoodies. It's hoodie season. So, you know, go to the merch feed as well. You know, rock some, rock some bulwark gear up. Rock some capitalist wing of antifa gear around your hood this winter. We'd appreciate it. And we'll be seeing you all soon. [BLANK_AUDIO]