Who’s more likely to make the Playoff: Ohio St or Texas? USC or UCLA? + Indiana Film Breakdown
45m 1s
The show analyzes college football playoff likelihood by comparing teams outside the top 10, focusing on consistency, schedule difficulty, and offensive/defensive strengths. UCLA is favored over USC due to a manageable schedule and a reliable run game, while Ohio State edges out Texas with more consistent performance and superior defensive metrics. Oklahoma State surpasses Texas Tech with a balanced, high-efficiency offense. Utah is seen as more likely than BYU due to its superior schedule and run game, while Iowa outperforms Ole Miss through a tougher, more predictable path to a strong resume. The power rankings spotlight underappreciated teams like New Mexico and James Madison, with Boise emerging as the top contender. A detailed breakdown of Indiana’s offense and defense reveals their offensive creativity but defensive fragility without key players. The discussion also includes viewer mailbag questions on coaching decisions, sideline behavior, and job interview etiquette, reinforcing the show’s blend of analytical insight and practical advice. Ultimately, the analysis emphasizes that playoff success hinges not just on wins, but on consistency, schedule resilience, and hidden strengths.
I would love to see a game where like winner goes to the CFP. By the way, I think both of them are easily good enough to win every game left on their schedules. My problem with Ole Miss is that you've got to have the quarterback turn into Superman. I need my eyes coffee, everyone, and it's going to sweat all over the place, like an offensive lineman in August. You're welcome. Hey, what's up? Welcome into the program. This is the Joel Flancho. I'm Joel Klatt. This show is brought to you by Hilton Hilton for the stay, and we thank them for their support as always. Pack show for you here today as we're getting in here towards the middle of the college football season. What a season it's been. Last Saturday was incredible. We've got great games this Saturday. I can't wait for tomorrow's episode. I'm going to have a new batch of picks and previews. We are still one game above 500 in our picks this year, but today, here's what I wanted to do. I've always told you, and you guys know this to be true. The fact that there are going to be some surprises in the college football playoff. We know that teams outside of the top 10 are going to jump up. We've done that from a couple of weeks ago here on the program, but there's always these teams. And you can start to see, like, okay, they're going to have either a match up or be compared with one another. So here's what I wanted to do. I'm going to play a little game more likely. I'm going to match up some teams in college football that are outside of the top five, 10, 9 right there outside of those top nine. And more likely to make the playoffs. I've got film review. I've got a breakdown of Indiana. Remember, Big New and Saturday is going to be in Bloomington as Ohio State goes to take on the Hoosiers. They've won 22 in a row. And I'm going to show you what they're doing right on offense and the answers that they have in their offense. But I'm also going to show you a weakness that they've got right now in their defense in particular. As it compares to last year's defense, the defense then went 16 to 1, the national championship. And then we've got mailbag. We've got some mailbag questions. Thank you for throwing those our way. We'll continue to that during the course of the year. So all that is coming up right now. Let's get into it more likely to make the play off the CFP. Let's start with this comparison, UCLA or USC. Both the LA schools, let's break it down. Okay, UCLA now with their backup quarterback, Tide Defenbach. So he's into the ballgame and USC off of there. When going out east, winning in the wide out, you know, more positive vibes for USC right now. Then obviously they had over the last couple of weeks. And in particular, after they lost to Oregon, the big news though, this week is that Defenbach is going to be the quarterback for this foreseeable future for UCLA because Nico Eomale Ava likely out for a while, possibly the entire year with that knee injury that he suffered in Eugene. That that is absolutely going to play a part in this pick here. Defenbach came off the bench. I thought he did. Okay. Not a quarterback lead team and you can see that through the numbers, even Eomale Ava was not lighting the world on fire. In fact, Nico, who's obviously talented and you know that I like him as a player, but they're not the reason he's not the reason that they were winning the the winning was on the back of Wayne night and the run game. In fact, Nico was only 80th in the country and passer efficiency rating. Only five total touchdowns and five turnovers with about 23 passing attempts per game. This is a run first offense, there's no doubt about that. And UCLA is driven by number three Wayne night. Now they're schedule. You look at that schedule and I've been telling you this since the offseason. It's manageable. They've got three home games in a row, Wisconsin. Watch out for that. That'll be on the picks and previews tomorrow. They've got Michigan state who has struggled a little bit. They've got Nevada, a non conference game. They've got to go to Minnesota. By the way, Minnesota who beat Michigan, then just lost to Purdue and then they've got home Illinois at Michigan home USC. So not the easiest schedule in the world, but certainly manageable for a team that's run in the ball is efficient, efficiently as they are with Bob Chesney and Wayne night. Now USC, listen, did you guys notice a difference like I did watching USC on Saturday night? One, yeah, they just played so much cleaner than they had in their previous trips out east on the road. I thought my AVO was terrific and didn't you know a notice a difference with mostly on the field? Trent Mosley is a dude now. That offense is totally different with him on the field. His playmaking ability with the ball in his hands is outstanding. That was a huge road win. I think it's a huge road win for their psyche. And then you look at the rest of their schedule. It is very, very difficult. I think that they're likely to be underdogs in four of their last five games here are those four at Wisconsin. Right now Wisconsin would be favored by about seven and a half against USC. They've got home against Ohio State at Indiana, the reigning national champs on a 22 game winning streak and then at UCLA. So an incredibly difficult schedule for USC, even with some of the positive momentum that they got after winning in the wide out against Penn State, these two teams are going to meet on that final Saturday of the season. I mean, that would be amazing. We'll see if they can get to that point. I think it's going to be much more difficult for USC with the schedule they have in front of them versus the Bruins. So who's more likely to go to the CFP out of these two? I think it's you UCLA. The Bruins get the nod for me, you, you, you see LA more likely to go to the playoff out of those two. All right. How about Ohio State and Texas? Obviously, these two teams are going to be linked kind of the entire year because of that matchup that they had in week two of the college football season. Now Ohio State played well lost, Texas played okay, great for three series one. That is going to play huge as we move on in this season because I think Ohio State is going to have to at least be clear of Texas because if they're directly compared, obviously that head to head is going to play out. Now they both have one loss, obviously Ohio State to Texas and Texas last week in Red River. So let's start looking at what is in front of these teams. And by the way, for Ohio State ain't easy. In fact, Ohio State, the Buckais who traveled to Bloomington this week, I will see them against Indiana. They have the number one hardest schedule remaining in the country so far. They've got at Indiana and off week. They've got at USC USC who has been very good at home, even though they lost to Oregon. They've got Oregon coming to the shoe, a ranked Northwestern team at Nebraska, which as we know from last week is not a pushover and then Michigan when you throw the records out. So that's the number one, most hardest schedule remaining in the country. And that's what Ohio State is going to have to navigate. Texas has played up to this point, the fourth hardest schedule in the country. So they've seen a lot of their, their toughness. If you will, the grit out of their schedule and then moving on is the 18th hardest. So a little bit of an easier road for Texas moving forward. They've got three straight home games, Florida who just got trounced twice, Ole Miss who doesn't play defense. Although they've got Trinidad Chamblis, Mississippi State and Camario Taylor, although his status is somewhat up in the air, moving forward at Missouri who's running the ball well at LSU, which is an incredibly difficult place to play. Home Arkansas at A&M and R&M has already lost those three games. So that's what we're looking at moving forward for these two programs. And who's more likely to go to the CFP out of Ohio State and Texas? I think that the easy answer would be both. And you know what? I actually think both of them will make the playoff, but the more likely team is Ohio State. And the reason is is because they're playing more consistently. I know that they didn't beat Texas, but if you look at the way that each team has played up to this point, the far more consistent team has been the Buckeyes and the numbers bear that out. Ohio State on offense from a yards per play standpoint is sixth in the country. Yards per play on defense number one. So they lose those four draft picks in the top 36 picks in the last year's draft. And they're still the number one yards per play defense in the country. Matt Patricia is not going to allow them to be a bad defense. They still have the cheat code best player in America. And to me, has to win the Heisman trophy in Jeremiah Smith because he's absolutely the best player in our sport. Those are the numbers for Ohio State, then you look at Texas, not quite the same. We touched on these before the game against Oklahoma, but yards per play on offense for Texas right now is a hundred and fourth. This offense can't get out of their own way. They make mistakes too many three and outs too many turnovers. Their defense is elite yards per play on defense ninth in the country top 10. So if you're just looking at the consistency of what these teams do, how they play where the weaknesses are on their roster, what they have ahead of them as far as the schedule goes. And, and by the way, I think both of them are easily good enough to win every game left on their schedule. So even they, even though both schedules are difficult moving forward, they can easily win all of these games. I still think that my pick is Ohio State. Texas has played three power four teams and each game has come down to the wire. I don't love that. The lack of consistency from Texas is something that I've been talking about over the last couple of weeks. I think it'll bite them at some point. So more likely, even though I think both will go more likely would be Ohio State. How about Texas Tech and Oklahoma State? This is a good one out of the big 12. And in particular, because most of us would at least from, from the preseason, just kind of give the nod to tech. They spend more. We think their roster is better. Now you've got Eric Morris and, and all these North Texas guys with Mestemaker at Oklahoma State. And don't look now, but man, that Oklahoma State team is playing really well. Let's look at tech first. They're undefeated number 10 in the country, Oklahoma State 4 and 1 their 18th in the country. But I got to be honest, I'm not a huge believer in tech right now. It just has not been the same this season. They were excellent on defense a year ago and they're not quite there this year. They were much better off.
offensively, then they are, uh, they were much better offensively last year than they have been so far this year. Will Hammond has not been great up to this point. Cameron Dickey, they're running back as a high ankle sprain. Now they've got Jacobi Williams and Quentin Joyner. So yeah, they've got some things there, but it just has not been the same. The offense gets off to these slow starts every week. You see this. They've played now five games. They've only scored seven offensive touchdowns in the first half so far. And by the way, they're not playing anybody. It's been the 71st hardest schedule in the country up to this point. Tech has the third easiest schedule in the big 12th, the rest of the way. But again, like I just don't love the lack of consistency. Meanwhile, for Oklahoma state, yeah, they lost to Tulsa. And a lot of people wrote them off, but we should have gotten back on board right away when they were able to beat Oregon and they showed what they were capable of balance on offense, the ability to throw the ball down the field. The Mester maker might be a day one pick in the NFL draft, he he very, very likely will be a first round selection. Since that loss in week one, Oklahoma state is the number one offense in the country by yards per play. I mean, they're playing great football. And this is this is the blueprint that we have seen work. We saw work with dignity. We're seeing it work with Bob Chesney and now we're seeing it work with Eric Morris. Mester maker. I'm a huge fan of Caleb Hawkins. They're running back. I think he's an excellent player. And then they've got a really solid wide receiver on the outside, why it young. This is that North Texas offense. It's taken the big 12 by storm so far. These two teams play in November. I'm leaning Oklahoma state. My pick is Oklahoma state. I think Oklahoma state is more likely to go to the playoff this year than Texas tech. How about out of the state of Utah, BYU or Utah, who's more likely to go to the CFP? Both teams undefeated at this point. Inside of the top 12 in the country, both teams have very good defenses. And you would expect that, right? Even though Kyle Wittingham moved on to Michigan, Morgan Scally was the defensive coordinator. You knew that that would still be great. Colony Sataki is a defensive guy. You knew that that would always be true for BYU. Now for the Cougs, they lost their best player. And I'm a bit nervous about this because L.J. Martin meant to tundered them. Remember, he was the big 12 offends player of the year last year, right? Like I love Bearbock Meyer. And last week, he was able to put the cape on and just will them to victory. And at times, it can look great with Bearbock Meyer. There's no doubt, but to elevate and beat the quality teams on their schedule, like Notre Dame this week, or when they have to travel to Salt Lake, they're going to need something else. They need L.J. Martin on the field. Bock Meyer had 300 passing and 100 on the ground against Iowa State. Is he going to be able to keep doing that? That would be the question for the Cougs. And then for Utah, they're just humming along right now. In particular, on the offensive side, we know their defense is outstanding. They just put up 550 yards last week on Kansas. They're running the ball effectively. It's a devastating run game. And I know what you're thinking. It's like, well, it's not translating for Michigan. I understand that. But they have damp here. They've got bird fickle and these are guys that can run this scheme. Wayshawn Parker back-to-back games with 170 yards out of the backfield. And then you look at their schedules upcoming for BYU. It's just more difficult. And it starts this week as number two Notre Dame comes to town. Now, granite, they're at home. And that's a terrific home field advantage because that fan base is outstanding. The BYU fans are outstanding. And that'll be a fever pitch that there's no doubt. But Notre Dame is more talented than BYU. They've got at UCF ASU at Utah, Baylor, Kansas, and then Cincinnati. So that's what it is on BYU schedule. For Utah, I think it's a little easier at Colorado. They should be able to handle the buffs against Houston. Now Houston is ranked at Cincinnati, home to BYU at Arizona. Watch out for Nova Fita at TCU in West Virginia. I think the Holy War, which is insult lake this year. I think the winner of that game is going to ultimately go and play for the big 12 championship. And because they're at home and because they're not dealing with the injuries that BYU is dealing with, I think Utah ends up winning that game. And I'm going to go with Utah more likely to make the CFP from BYU in Utah. I'm going to land on Utah. I think that they're going to go to the big 12 championship and win that game. How about Ole Miss and Iowa? I know they're not in the same conference. I get it. And they're not all that close in the ranking right now because Ole Miss is nine. Iowa is 17. And so you might be thinking yourself like, wait, really? And you're looking at Ole Miss. Yes, they bounce back after that really poor performance against Florida. They bounce back last week. They blew out Vandy. They got Florida ran for a million yards on them. The remaining schedule though, I don't love it. Four tough games, including two that I just, I don't see for Ole Miss. They've got to play at Texas and home to Georgia. They've got Missouri this week. And then Missouri team is rolling at Oklahoma. And we know that their defense is outstanding. You know, Mississippi state in the egg bowl. I think that's a throw the records out style of game. Now, he can. And I love Chambles. And you guys know that. You know that. But then you look at Iowa. Now, in a straight up game, I might even pick Ole Miss. But when you look at Iowa, they only have one loss. And then look at the rest of their schedule. And you can see a very clear path to 11 and one. I think that they're going to be favored to win the rest of their games. They're off this week. Then they're at Minnesota, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, at Illinois, and Nebraska. I don't think it's easy. I know that there are a lot of people in particular from the south that would look at that and scoff. I don't think going to Minnesota is all that easy. I don't think going to Northwestern is all that easy. I do not think playing Nebraska is going to be all that easy. And watch out for Wisconsin because Wisconsin's defense is actually a lot better than people realize. Just go back and look at the way that they played with Notre Dame for a half in the week one of the season. But this Iowa team, they just ran for 260 yards against Washington on the road. And the fact that they've got a backup quarterback in right now doesn't bother me as much because Iowa is not a quarterback centric program. This is not a quarterback centric offense. So now Jeremy Huckleinsky comes in and like, okay, can you throw to the tight end and hand the football off? It's Iowa. Like this is what we do. I think 11 and one would get them in. I don't think that they can lose a second game because they're not going to have a tremendous resume. Even though like I just said, I don't think that the back end of their schedule gets the respect that it deserves. Like for instance, I personally believe Nebraska should be ranked. I don't. We all watched the game on Saturday. That's a very good football team. Okay. And I think that they should be ranked. So the respect that they get or don't get from the committee will be telling in those first few rankings and we'll see exactly what Iowa is going to need to do down the stretch. If they were to go 11 and one though, I think that they're in. They would have a win over Michigan. They would have lost to Ohio State. They would have a win against possibly ranked Northwestern team, possibly a ranked Nebraska at that point. Who knows? You know, at that point. So most likely to go to the CFP, I'm going to go Iowa. And it's primarily because of that schedule. I love Chamblis, but I'm going to go Iowa right there. I think that they would be more likely overall miss because of what's going on. All right. Now what I wanted to get to and this is not kind of a more likely. So I'm not going to compare. But what we haven't done yet and candidly not many people do, we haven't looked at the group of six and like, where are we? So let's take stock right now and kind of our group of six power rankings. Who are, let's just say the five most likely teams to go to the CFP out of the group of six. All right. So let's start giving some love to these teams that maybe nobody has heard about. No one knows these coaches or players or anything. Let's talk about some of these teams. Number one out of the power rankings. They're the only group of six that's ranked right now would be boys. He stayed. Obviously, they've got the track record of success. Now they're playing out of the pack 12. They're in the driver's seat as the highest ranked G 16 right now. They're number 23 and the eight people. They've got five straight wins up to this point. That close loss to Oregon in week one. I don't think people are going to scoff at that. Dylan Riley is second in the country at 139 yards per game out of the backfield. So they're going to run it. You know, they're always going to run it. They've got experience at quarterback with Maddox Madsen. He's got 32 career start. I would just say they do have a pretty tricky game here in a couple of weeks. They're going to face Oregon state in that new pack 12 and Oregon state can like light it up on the offensive side. They can throw the football around lagre is right now the leading receiver in the entire country. All right, so that's number one of the power rankings. The second most likely team to go and I know this is this is going to be a little left field here. Watch out for New Mexico. Watch out for the lobos. Okay. This might be a bit of surprise, but keep an eye on Jason X team out of New Mexico. They were nine and four a year ago. So this is not a team that's just popping out of nowhere. They played OU really tough on the road, obviously at Oklahoma in a 14 six game. They've got a top five scoring offense right now in college football. They've got a top five scoring defense in college football. And that's despite losing their quarterback so far for the season right before the season in the preseason. The defense leads the countries in country and takeaways with 20. So like they've got UNLV left on the schedule. They've got North Dakota state left on
the schedule. Those teams are right around them in their standings in the mountain west. Watch out for New Mexico and Jason Eck, by the way, he would be one of these guys. Who's the next signety? Chesney, Eric Morris. It's going to be Jason Eck. Jason Eck is going to be on a lot of short list for jobs. I know people around the Mexico are like, shut up. Don't say that, but it's the truth. Number three in the power rankings out of the group of six is going to be Oregon State. I just mentioned them a little bit ago. When I was talking about Boise, they're out of the pack 12, obviously. Beavers throw it around. Number one in the country at 391 yards passing per game. Braden Atkinson is doing a heck of a job there at quarterback. Jesse LaGree leads the country and receiving at 155 yards per game. He's also got 12 touchdowns. That's even more than Jeremiah Smith. So that's how well they're playing on their resume, though. And the reason I have them at three, I think a lot of people I think it's invoked to be like, oh, Oregon State, Oregon State, they already have two losses. So for instance, if New Mexico continues to win, I don't know if Oregon State is going to pass them. Now they do have that game against Boise and we'll see how big of a bump they could get if they were to win that game, but they did lose their only two power four games against Houston and Texas Tech. They've got to beat Boise. That one's going to be on the road in November. At number four, guess who's back? J.M.U. undefeated receiving votes in the AP poll. I've got them a little bit lower, even though they're undefeated because they don't have a power four game on their schedule. So I think that the committee and rightly so is going to look down on that as compared to all these other teams. Boise played Oregon to Mexico, went and played Oklahoma, Oregon State played Houston and Texas Tech and then they'll play each other and so on and so forth. Whereas J.M.U., they don't have that. So they're going to have to go undefeated to be considered. Now if they go undefeated and some of these teams knock each other out, could they be the highest ranked group of six champion possibly? Billy Napier has done a great job there. I think they're going to have to go undefeated to overcome that schedule. One thing that might help them though is everyone looking around and being like, well, isn't J.M.U. just really good because we saw what Kirk Cognetti was able to do with J.M.U. guys in his first year at Indiana. Now we're watching Bob Chesney do the exact same thing at UCLA with J.M.U. guys. Does the committee give him a bump in that regard? I think that remains to be seen. My last one, number five group of six power rankings is going to be UTS A out of the American Jeff trailer continues to do a really good job there at UTS A. They're five and one. Their only loss was at Texas. So again, power four game and an elite power four team. Their quarterback right now is Owen McCowne. He's a former Colorado guy, strong run game out of UTS A. They average close to 200 on the ground, but they've got to fix their run defense. That's why I had him at number five, not ahead of some of these other teams. They're 119th right now, stopping the run with their run defense. So there's your group of six power rankings right there. Boise would be my number one pick. Then watch out for New Mexico Oregon. Stay with that passing game. The undefeated James Madison team and then UTS A with Jeff trailer. So there you go. That's where we sit. Kind of with the CFP. What I wanted to do right now in preparation for this week's big noon Saturday game is just show you a little film. We've been doing this on our midweek shows, our Wednesday shows. And I know that a lot of people love to learn more about football. If you're not watching on YouTube, I would encourage you to go watch on YouTube. I'll try to explain as best I possibly can what's being shown, shown right now. But remember this show, this is a, this is a digital video show. So it's built to be watched on YouTube. Some of these episodes air on FS1 and including the picks and previews. So go over there and check that out. And then if you're listening and you don't see it on YouTube, this will live on all of our social platforms and in a shorter content. So go check out at Joel Clatchill wherever you like to social media. And this, this will be out there. Okay, let's get into Indiana now. Okay. So Indiana was the national champion. They were 16 and L. And they were excellent. They had the Heisman Trophy winner. They ran for over 300 yards. And I believe it was 6 games last year. Their defense was one of the best defenses in the country. So the question the entire year so far is kind of a comparative question. Are they as good as a year ago? I'm going to show you two elements of this team where I think that they are as good and where I think that they are not. All right. Let me start with the offense. And I know they had the Heisman Trophy winner, but this offense continues to have answers. They want to run the football and they want to be effective running the football. And we've seen that play out time and time again and concluding that Rose Bowl against Bama and other games. Now when that is taken away from them, they have to have answers. Where do you go then? And last year, what did we see? We saw Fernando Mendoza start making critical plays in a positive fashion to guys like Elijah Sarat, Omar Cooper, Riley Noah Kowski, Charlie Becker, the third down, the fourth down in the big 10 championship game. So that offense had answers. And part of it was that Mendoza stepped up and made big throws in big moments. So let's take a look at the offense right now. Let's go to the tape. Last week against Nebraska, here's what you're going to see is that Nebraska knew what I was just talking about, which was you have to take away their run game. And to do that, you've got to have the support player, which is the safety in this structure of defense, kind of a quarter structure of defense, come heavy downhill into the box. Well, here's the thing. Indiana does an incredible job of blocking the support player with their wide receivers. So on this play, Charlie Becker is going to try to get to the safety. But what I want you to see is just how quickly the safety for Nebraska was triggering downhill on their run play. So as we run this out right here, you're going to see Becker try to get in there and boom, look how near he is to the line of scrimmage. So now that block is taking place right here. And this run play doesn't really have anywhere to go. You see how muddy it is right there because Becker can't get up there and make this block for five six yards away from the line of scrimmage. This block is taking place two or three yards from the line of scrimmage. So Nebraska just made it a point. Um, we're taking our support player and we're running him right downhill. All right. So as we kind of run this out and you'll see like, it's just muddy, right? So let me take it back really quickly. All right. So what do we have? We've got this safety right here. He's going to fly downhill. And that's how you take away their run game. Here he comes boom, nowhere to run the football for turbo richer. Okay. So what do you have to have if you're Indiana? Well, you can't just beat your head against a brick wall. So what do you do? You got to have answers. So in this next clip, it's not the exact same formation, but they put their, um, H back to that boundary side, the short side of the field. And they're going to try to get the attention of that safety and they're going to encourage him to continue doing what he already wants to do. What does he want to do? He wants to take away their run game and play heavy downhill leverage, right? Now instead of trying to get in there and say like, okay, over here, you know, this is Nick Marsh. We want you to go block the safety and try to dig him out and, and, and, and create some lanes for our run game. They're not going to do that. What they're going to do on this play is that they're going to just send him on this little slant behind. And then they're going to RPO run fake right here. And the quarterback is going to be reading that safety. So now it's answers. All right. You're going to fly downhill. Guess what? We're going to sit there and we're going to make you the read and we're going to put you in conflict. So here comes the safety. There he is. He flies downhill and boom. It's caught right behind him in the exact spot that the safety just vacated. Why? Because they have answers. This is the exact play that they ran against Iowa last year when they were able to get a win on the road. You play this out. There was no safety help. Obviously because he's down in the run box and Nick Marsh. He goes in for a score. Those are both first and 10 plays. So what are you trying to do right here? You're saying, listen, we know what you want to do on first and 10. You want the safety down in the box and sure enough, they were able to make them pay. All right. Now let's go over to the defensive side of the ball. Now this is what's different and it's not in a good way. So we saw what's the same on offense. But now let's take a look at the defense. This is last year. This is their game that we called Gus, Jenny and I against UCLA. Now here's what I want you to pay attention to. As I want you to pay attention to this player right down here. So that's the Angelo Ponds. The Angelo Ponds was as good of a corner as we had in college football. And what they're going to do is that they're going to match him up in man to man coverage, single coverage against the wide receiver right here to the boundary side. When I say boundary, I'm meaning the short side of the field. So Ponds always played into the short side of the field. Why? Because they could match him up on the wide receiver. And then they would have all these other players with their eyes to the wide side of the field. So on the snap of the football, I want you to pay attention to where everyone's eyes are. Watch the defense rotate. You see the safety already start to come down and then at the snap, look at the eyes, everybody's eyes over here, over here, over here. Why? Because you've got the Angelo Ponds in a one on one and you trust him because he's one of the best players in America. So as a quarterback, I've got to take the one on one because everywhere else there's numbers. I've got four over two on the wide side of the field. And so I've got to go play the one on one. Well, good luck. Why? Because this guy was excellent in coverage. Past break up, it allows Indiana to play all of that leverage towards the wide side, eyes to the wide side, numbers to the wide side. And they understand that our boundary taken care of, totally taken care of. So is that the same this year? Not quite. Let's go to last
week against Nebraska. Similar type of formation in that you're going to get three wide receivers down here for Nebraska. Okay. So Nebraska, they're going to send this guy in motion right over here. And what you're going to get is that you're going to get all the eyes from from Indiana over here on this side towards the heavy release side, the three receiver side. And what are they going to try to do? You're going to try to play the same defense, right? So you're going to try to play the exact same defense with single coverage back there to the single receiver side into the short boundary area of the field. Okay. What can you do that? Well, we're going to see right here as soon as this motion kicks out with the running back right here. Boom. Where's everyone's eyes? Okay, so here's we got eyes. We got eyes. We got eyes. We got eyes where we are numbers over the field. There's five defenders. There's four releases for Nebraska, which means we've got single coverage back here to the boundary. This is third down. By the way, that UCLA play was a third down. So you've got to make the play on the backside in the one on one. Are they able to do it? No, separation, completion, run after the catch. First down Nebraska defense stays on the field. That's one of the biggest differences last year to this year. It's not a schematic difference. It's a personnel difference. And so now you know what Indiana is going to be fighting, moving forward. And it's not a great week to go into a matchup when you don't feel great about your secondary, because Jeremiah Smith is on the opposite side, but that's what they're going to be fighting on that Indiana side. Offense has answers, defense, different without the Angelo ponds. Let's jump into the mailbag now. Time for the mailbag presented by Hilton, where even your rival team will get unrivaled hospitality. When you need a winning team on and off the field, it matters where you stay. Thank you to Hilton for that. Okay, here's the mailbag. We're going to start with Joey M. He writes, and surprise that Kyle Wittingham is sticking with Bryce Underwood and Jason Beck. If you haven't heard the news, Kyle Wittingham, you know, they had an off week after that debacle against Minnesota. And he has said, nope, Jason Beck is still going to be the offense coordinator. And Bryce Underwood is still going to be the quarterback. I'm actually not surprised. It doesn't surprise me at all. Let me start with this. Kyle is, and some people might hate this, but like Kyle's a loyal guy. Jason Beck came with him from Utah. He got a multi-year contract. That's one of the largest assistant coaches contracts in college football. He's not going to move off of Jason Beck just because they played a poor game against Minnesota. So that's step one. He's not going to throw Jason Beck out. Now, will he force Jason Beck to adjust, run some different things, possibly, and we'll see when they get on into the field this week against Penn State. So then the question becomes about Bryce Underwood, where are you going to make a change at quarterback? But here's the thing. If you're going to run Jason Beck's system, why is Jason Beck such a hot commodity, or at least he was before this season because of the rushing numbers? What do you need to run his rushing scheme, a mobile quarterback? And I know Bryce has made some poor decisions in the run game. And we've shown that on film at times, but he's certainly a better rusher than Tommy Carr. You know, if they get behind in the game, I won't be that shocked if they want to throw the ball if Carr goes in there to throw the football. But to run the offense from the get go off the rip, I still think Bryce would be the best one to orchestrate Beck's offense. Should it look different, though? Yes, it should look different. But I'm not surprised that he did not make a switch. Next question. We get this one in this one's from Thomas M. He says, Hey, Joel, big fan of the show. After the sideline outburst is Kaylyn DeBour trying too hard to be Nick Saban. Good question. I've heard a lot of people talk about this. Of course, Kaylyn was livid first at the no call, the non-call. And I totally understand that. That was an egregious non-call on the what should have been passing her appearance in the end zone. And then he started blowing up at the player and his name is skipping off the top of my head. But he starts yelling at the player who gets the personal foul. And he's a screaming at him like, you cost us the game. Here's what I would say about that. I think Kaylyn overreacted in that moment. And I think he would tell you that privately because he would admit that no, that one penalty didn't cause them to lose the game. That didn't cost to them the game. There are so many things that that went on in that game that one gave them a chance and two could have cost them. I'll just point to a couple. How about horrendous play calling from from grub after the short field when they got the interception, right? Like they did not take advantage of that. How about the fact that they didn't have a side adjust on the passing play right after the non-call PI out of the tight end when the safety blitzes and Keelan Russell takes a sack? Like there's a bunch of mistakes that can pile on it and ultimately cost you the game. And so I think that Kaylyn in a private moment would have told you like, yeah, I, you know, that got the best of me. Dijon Lee was his name. Dijon Lee was the guy that he was screaming at. But here's the other part. I actually like the fiery nature that the borers had this year. And I think it's been reflected in how hard his team has played. There's been a different level of urgency and physicality in particular at the line of scrimmage for Alabama this year than there was a year ago. And he's been a lot more animated on the sideline. I don't think that's a bad thing. I do think yelling at a kid that he cost him the game. That was that was something that he probably wants back. Hey, college football season is in full swing. And this is the time of year when you start looking ahead at the games that you really want to go see in person. Once you pick the matchup, the next step is finding the best deal on tickets. And that's where SeatGeek comes in with over 35 million downloads. SeatGeek is the number one rated ticketing app with more than 70,000 events listed across sports, concerts, festivals and more. I love using SeatGeek because it makes comparing tickets really simple. Every ticket is rated on a scale of one to 10. So you know if you're getting a good deal, just look for the dots. Green dot means good. Red dot means bad. Plus every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. And of course, I have a code for you guys. You can use code clat 10 for 10% off your next set of college football tickets at SeatGeek. That's 10% off any college football tickets with promo code clat 10. Make sure you click the link in the description to download the app and have the code automatically added to your account. So you can use it later when you go into purchase, just a huge shout out to SeatGeek. All right. Next one, Trevor writes in. Just wanted to say I'm a huge fan of the show. Thank you. Always used to catch your segments on the herd. And I've now been watching and listening to the show since it started. Your insight is truly unique. And it helps keep me informed. Man, I wish we would get like get rid of all this praise. This is rat poison. Trevor, you're just throwing the show rat poison right now. Unique and it helps me stay informed when I live such a busy lifestyle and can't always watch all the games. Describe your most humbling experience in your professional career and how you overcame it. No, that's a, that's a really good one. The last line there was great. It was like rat poison, rat poison, rat poison. Now tell us when you sucked. Great question, Trevor. I love that. Let's see. Most humbling experience in my professional career. Obviously, like I failed at minor league baseball. That was humbling. But as far as in broadcasting, I like three come to mind. So when I was first trying to do broadcasting full time, I was first going to be an investment banker. I don't know if anyone realized that, but I was working for a small reate in Denver, the real estate market crashes in 2006, I lose my job and my wife, God bless her, was like, Hey, you know, you're pretty good at doing these games. I was doing high school football games and some studio work, just at the local regional sports network, FSN Rocky Mountain. And she was like, try to do it full time. So I ended up getting this, this very low budget radio show. And we would have to go do remote radio broadcast. It was an afternoon show on a station that candidly no one listened to. But it was great experience. But to set up those remote shows, we would have to go and like, this is before the internet was even strong enough. We would have to plug a phone line in to be like on the air. And we go to a Taco Bell in downtown Denver to do a remote broadcast out of a Taco Bell. And my partner, Nate Krakman, was setting up everything that I didn't know how to set up. And he was like, Hey, tape down this phone line on the floor and then plug it into the office in the back of the Taco Bell. And I was like, I'm sorry, tape down the phone line. He's like, well, yeah, we can't be kicked off the air, right? Like someone can't trip over the phone line. And so guess what's in between the front lobby of a Taco Bell and the back office of a Taco Bell, the kitchen, which means I was on my hands and knees taping with duct tape, a phone line down to a Taco Bell floor. And you know what, though? Like, I loved it. It made me love it even more. It made me more motivated. And it certainly was, was humbling. I also at the Foster Farm Bowl in like 2013 or 14. I was doing the trophy presentation. And the CEO of Foster Farms at the time was this really nice woman who I had met at the lunch in the day prior. And then she's there to hand out the trophy. And she was fantastic. And like a dummy in the trophy presentation, live to both the stadium and the broadcast, I said, Mr. I mean, just like and I didn't even realize it. They were telling me in my ear afterwards. And then like our sideline producer was like, you just said, Mr. And I was like, no, I definitely didn't say that. Yeah, you did. So now I got to tell you I prepare for the trophy presentation about as hard as the game. And I just don't want to make that mistake again. And then the last one and this is
like the most humbling in 2015. I said that on the Coward J. I said to Colin that Alabama had a Nick Sabin problem. (laughs) Wasn't great. They had just lost 43-37 to Ole Miss. But I've admitted it. Like this is the, so what did I learn? How did I overcome it? I held my hand up and I said, I'm wrong. I'm totally wrong. And I will be wrong again. And I try to do that for you guys on this show anytime I'm wrong, is hold my hand up and say like, hey, this might be totally off base. I'm not always gonna be right. And I don't think I'm always right. Now, you've got to have conviction in my role about what you think and what you say. And so when I talk about things, yes, I'm gonna say them with conviction, but that doesn't make them right. And I will be the first one to tell you that. I had come to that conclusion because they had started to lose some shootouts to some athletic quarterbacks. And I thought to myself like, they're gonna have to adjust on offense. And it doesn't seem like they are adjusting on offense. They might have a Nick Saban problem. I thought it was a well-reasoned take. And then I set it and I was like, that sounded really dumb. And then sure enough, they went on to win the national championship. So awesome. But that was certainly humbling, but I owned it. You just own it. When you make a mistake, you own it. All right, last one. Time for one more in the mail bag. Katherine, K writes in, is it appropriate to bring an iced coffee to a job interview? No. What in the world? Absolutely not. An iced coffee? I don't, I wouldn't even bring a hot coffee into a job interview. An iced coffee? Do you know how? Listen, first of all, all of you iced coffee drinkers. First of all, I get it. It's been hot. All of that. Your drink sweats. More than an offensive lineman in August. So wherever you lay it, it's just a puddle of water. So if you walk an iced coffee into a job interview, what are you doing? Setting it down on the CEO's desk? Hey, do you got a paper towel? Does that I can put it under my iced coffee? And everybody that drinks iced coffee, they give the swirl. And it's like. Can we, can we stop? Again, like, you know who to, Jenny, Jenny drinks iced coffees. Like I love Jenny, but not in a job interview. Do you, I tell you what? Let's just do tips for job interviews. Rather than me just ranting and raving about your sweaty drink on the CEO's table, which is egregious. If you walk in with an iced coffee, you might as well walk in with a tank top. You're just exuding to everybody that like your needs are paramount in this situation. I need my iced coffee, everyone. And it's going to sweat all over the place, like an offensive lineman in August. Okay, here's your, here's your must-do's in a job interview. Are you ready for this? Dress up. Are you youngsters out there? It's not cool to be like, oh, it's fashionable. Dress up. Dress for the job you want. You should try to be the best dress person in the room. And I don't mean like the in style best dress person. No, no, no. Don't walk in with your jeans that are 87 times too big and would blow you off the face of the planet if a stiff wind came into the office. Okay, dress appropriately. That's number one. Number two, shake hands and make eye contact. Be confident. Have some conviction about you. Stand up straight. Don't walk in all mopey and give the little handshake. If I, when I shake people's hand and they give me like the soft hand, it's like cotton balls. It's like I'm getting shivers right now. Don't soft hand it eye contact, shake hands well. Reply yes or no to questions. Not yeah or um, that's an easy one. Like, oh, tell us about your biggest difficulty in life. Um, good question. You're not prepared for that question? Say, yes, I know exactly what it is. And here's what it was. Here's what I learned from it. Yes and no versus yeah and um. And the number four, um, you're there to create value for that organization and that person who's trying to hire you. They are not there to provide value or anything for you. Do not ask how much you will be paid. Do not ask how much vacation you will get. Sit there and take it and tell them I'm here to make this place better because I'm going to create value for you. And when I do that, there will be more opportunity from me. You're welcome. That's the Joel Clath Show. And email us with all the jobs you get with that advice. We'll be back tomorrow with picks and previews.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
UCLA is more likely than USC to reach the CFP due to a manageable schedule and consistent run-based offense, despite USC's improved performance.
Ohio State is more likely than Texas to make the playoff, with stronger consistency, top-tier defense, and a harder but more navigable schedule.
Oklahoma State edges out Texas Tech as the more likely CFP contender, thanks to a dynamic, balanced offense and stronger recent performance.
Utah is favored over BYU for the CFP, as it has a more favorable schedule, a dominant run game, and fewer key injuries compared to BYU's reliance on L.J. Martin.
Iowa is more likely than Ole Miss to reach the CFP due to a tougher, more balanced schedule and a proven ability to win against top-tier opponents.
The group of six power rankings highlights Boise, New Mexico, Oregon State, James Madison, and UTS A as potential CFP teams, with Boise leading due to strength and depth.
Indiana’s offense remains effective with innovative play designs, but its defense is weakened without key player Angelo Ponds.
The show emphasizes under-the-radar teams and defensive vulnerabilities, with real-time film analysis and strategic insights shaping playoff predictions.
Summary:
The show analyzes college football playoff likelihood by comparing teams outside the top 10, focusing on consistency, schedule difficulty, and offensive/defensive strengths. UCLA is favored over USC due to a manageable schedule and a reliable run game, while Ohio State edges out Texas with more consistent performance and superior defensive metrics. Oklahoma State surpasses Texas Tech with a balanced, high-efficiency offense.
Utah is seen as more likely than BYU due to its superior schedule and run game, while Iowa outperforms Ole Miss through a tougher, more predictable path to a strong resume. The power rankings spotlight underappreciated teams like New Mexico and James Madison, with Boise emerging as the top contender. A detailed breakdown of Indiana’s offense and defense reveals their offensive creativity but defensive fragility without key players.
The discussion also includes viewer mailbag questions on coaching decisions, sideline behavior, and job interview etiquette, reinforcing the show’s blend of analytical insight and practical advice. Ultimately, the analysis emphasizes that playoff success hinges not just on wins, but on consistency, schedule resilience, and hidden strengths.
FAQs
UCLA is more likely to make the CFP. While USC has momentum from a recent win, UCLA has a more manageable schedule and a strong run-first offense led by Wayne Night. USC faces a difficult schedule with four tough matchups, including against Indiana and Wisconsin.
Ohio State is more likely to reach the CFP. Though both teams have one loss and strong records, Ohio State has greater consistency, better defensive efficiency, and a tougher schedule. Texas has struggled with offensive consistency and turnovers, making it harder to maintain a playoff resume.
Oklahoma State is more likely to make the CFP. Despite Texas Tech's recent defensive strength, Oklahoma State has shown a breakout offensive performance, leading the nation in yards per play. Their balanced offense and improved consistency give them an edge over Tech.
Utah is more likely to make the CFP. While BYU has a strong defense, they are missing key player L.J. Martin, whose absence weakens their offense. Utah has a strong, consistent run game and a manageable schedule, giving them a better path to a playoff berth.
Iowa is more likely to reach the CFP. Despite Ole Miss’s recent win over Vanderbilt, Iowa has a stronger schedule and a more balanced, resilient team. They are projected to go 11-1, with wins over tough opponents like Nebraska and Wisconsin, giving them a stronger resume.
Boise State is the most likely to reach the CFP among the group of six. They are the highest-ranked with a strong offense, a top-10 defense, and a key win against Oregon State. Their consistent performance and high-level schedule make them the top contender.
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