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Speaker 2Frank loves him some kind of job. Now let's get on with the show.
Speaker 1Happy Kokomo Friday and welcome in to Fantasy Baseball today on September 18th. I am Frank Sample joined by Scott White. Today on the show, who is this Kyle Tucker? We have possible waiver options for the final week. A weekend preview for those who play in daily lineup leagues. We'll do our normal to stream or not to stream. But I also... I also have my rapid fire hitters to stream like I did last week. And way too early. Bold predictions for next season. Let's jump in. Oh my goodness! Unbelievable! Oh my goodness. Did you see how good Jeffrey Springs was in the first three innings of that game today? Wow, that was great. Three innings, one hit. Looked great. Came out for the fourth inning. And he turned back into Jeffrey Springs. He got destroyed. So I will have to do some tweaks to the revenge game model. Sorry for everyone out there who streamed Jeffrey Springs. I actually did place a bet on him to go over 14 and a half outs. So money where your mouth is. I really thought he would be good and he was. First time through the lineup, then everything fell apart. So that's my bad. That's my bad. The player I actually want to talk about, Scott, is Kyle Tucker, who looks like he is finishing strong here. Having a nice September. Four for five with his 16th home run, two runs, three RBI. Here on Thursday, he finished a triple short of the cycle. Where did he do all this damage? You guessed it on the road, not in Los Angeles, where that's been the case all year. He's been much better on the road. We've chronicled this all season long, the updated home road splits, 572 OPS at home, an 853 OPS on the road. I don't really know what to make of that. I haven't known what to make of that all season. Here over his last 15 games, Kyle Tucker is hitting 280 with five home runs, 14 runs scored, two steals, a 1063 OPS, more walks than strikeouts. And why is this happening? Like, has he changed something that is allowing him to get to more power and just, you know, be more successful lately? He is hitting a lot more fly balls so far in September. 90 mile per hour average EV is pretty good there for Tucker and a 15% barrel rate. Stat cast numbers were before they were September before Thursday. So obviously they'll probably go up after this game. And his bat speed is up slightly. I noticed his squared up contact and squared up swing rates are the highest of any month. So he's finishing strong, Scott. I mean, it's it's we needed to see something, I guess, to give us some confidence heading into next season. You know, if he has a big playoffs, I guess that could be, you know, another kind of feather in the cap to to buy back in on the bounce back for Kyle Tucker. But what do you think? What do you see here with Kyle Tucker in September? And I don't know. Does this does this really change much for next season?
Speaker 3Probably not for most people. I don't know if you're aware, but not nearly as many people are paying attention right now as the other five months of the season. I have a whole article dedicated to that every year.
Speaker 1I can't wait. One of those paragraphs will be, hey, you started playing fantasy football. Kyle Tucker actually looked like Kyle Tucker in September. Yeah.
Speaker 3So I think this. This will miss a lot of people. I mean, the overall numbers are still going to be very disappointing. And that memory of him tanking people's seasons as their first round pick is going to be very fresh as well. It might change things for me, except I was already kind of liking Kyle Tucker as a bounce back candidate for next year. Not in round one or two or even three. But I don't think you'll have to invest that much in him. I think probably like around five pick just top. But I don't have a mind having dabbled with the 2027 rankings already. And that's a price that I think will be worth it, given that other than the top line stats, not a lot looks horribly wrong here. You mentioned his average bat speed is up a little in September, right? Was that the range?
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3It doesn't need to be up more than a little to be back to where it's always been. It's only been down slightly. It's not been like an obvious case of decline here with the bat speed for Kyle Tucker. Average exit velocity has been down a little, probably related to the bat speed to some degree. The plate discipline has been about as good as it always has. And his road performance has still been very good, as you point out. It's only 29, so it's not like he's in an age where we would expect to see big decline. You know, you look at the... Some of the sliders here on his baseball savant page. I mean, I've kind of gone through the whole thing. A lot of them look pretty normal. So, I think we're not giving Kyle Tucker, we, I'm using the royal we like Chris does and drives me crazy with it. A lot of people aren't giving Kyle Tucker the same benefit of the doubt that they give other players who sign massive contracts with big market clubs and struggle in their first season. It is something. It's something we've seen many times. I remember that was a thing with Francisco Lindor, for instance. And then the next year, they're totally fine. Doesn't mean it's always going to happen. Doesn't mean it's a guarantee with Kyle Tucker. But I think it's more probable than the sentiment right now would suggest. And the strong finish, to me, bolsters the idea.
Speaker 1Yeah, I don't really have a solid thought yet for next season. It sounds like you are... You're a little bit more solidified, you know, in your stance that he can bounce back next season. And he certainly can. I'm not going to rule out that possibility. But I think I just need a little bit more time to let the season end, let the postseason end, see what he does there. Kind of let it breathe a little bit, get away from it. And then kind of come back and dive back in and really kind of see if there's anything under the hood that I could find that was wrong with Kyle Tucker this year. I mean, it could possibly be, you know, the injuries, the leg injuries have just kind of added up too. And that it could just be a few. Two small kind of contributing factors that have, you know, all kind of... When you add all of them up together, it just knocked him down a peg. And that's how we got to this bad season for Kyle Tucker. But it is nice to see him finishing strong the final week of the season. He has six games, three at home, three on the road. So there are at least three games where he can be good next week. He faces Robbie Ray, Michael King, Nick Pavetta, maybe Logan Webb. Not sure about that one. Landon Roop and Blade Tidwell. Scott, over to you for your player of the night.
Speaker 3My player of the night is one you might still be able to pick up in shallower leagues. And it's Walbert Arania, who dominated against the Twins. With seven shutout innings, nine strikeouts, no walks. I mean, Walbert Arania has kind of been a fixture in the Pitchers to Stream, the Sleeper Pitchers article for most of the season. Several months. But it was always a fluke. floor case that I was making for him. Big ground ball guy, good at run prevention doesn't have the big strikeout upside and and probably he's gonna do more harm than good to your whip that that sort of assessment with walbert araña but we've really been seeing a lot of upside from him lately he had 22 whiffs in this start in addition to the nine strikeouts uh and his last four starts now he has a 193 era he has a 0.86 whip so he's really limited the base runners um right out of strikeout per inning in those four starts three of them three of the four have gone seven innings or more so that was part of the the the reason i i couldn't make much of an upside case for walbert araña earlier in the year he's kind of inefficient you doesn't work deep into games uh being a rookie who's kind of inefficient but that's changed here lately and like he just seems to keep getting better and better i'm to the point now where i don't i'm not sure it matters who he's facing i'm happy to start him i'm not going to call him must start but i'm happy to start him he's high in my uh sleeper pitchers list for for week 27 he is facing the athletics in saratoga so a tough place to fit to to pitch but a a strikeout prone lineup and he's a ground ball pitcher so i worry less about the venue with walbert araña he's faced the athletics three times already two of the starts were great one was terrible one of the few terrible starts he's had
Speaker 1but even so yeah i trust him for next week yeah i just wanted to point out with the matchup against the athletics the one bad start he had and it was a very bad start uh against the athletics seven runs over four and a third inning he faced them his previous start before that as well so faced him on june 20th it was five shutout innings with six strikeouts then the very next time out so again it's whenever there's a young pitcher who faces the same lineup two times in a row i i'm just wary of that and uh he that was the start where he gave up the seven earned runs uh the very next start out so i agree with a lot that you had there to say about araña i mean you watch him the stuff is nasty he throws around 100 miles per hour it's an awesome change up a little sneak peek for our bold predictions later on one that i toyed with was walbert araña leads the american
Speaker 3league in era next season it's bold like you can't you can't deny the boldness of it but i think directionally i i follow the the reasoning behind it so as bold predictions go i i don't think it's
Speaker 1terrible and i kind of like like him from just a long-term view perspective drafting him next season if you have him in a keeper or dynasty league because again under new ownership you know stan kronke comes in and buys the angels he's been successful with any team that he has purchased so i have to imagine that you know they're going to bring in um some better minds than they have had around in the past and i think they're already kind of on that track too so yeah i kind of like the way that you know things are trending here for the angels yeah yeah jama zellick's a good
Speaker 3executive he obviously has a good executive and he's a good executive and he's a good executive has a track record from the cardinals so i don't know if he's going to stick around or not he just has the interim label but uh but yeah i i think already there's reason to be optimistic about the angels future more than anyone has been in a long time all right before we hit our first break as
Speaker 1always the week 27 preview fbt express episode will be out on saturday morning here we are man we're we're ready final week of the season is next week scott's week 27 sleepers and two-star pitcher articles will be live on friday so make sure to give those a read on cbssports.com slash fantasy slash baseball or on the cbs fantasy app and once again the express episode previewing next week will be out on saturday let's take a break and we'll be
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Speaker 1at the best price welcome back fantasy baseball today let's run through the news and notes shohei otani has progressed to hitting off coaches interesting wording there i guess coaches are just throwing him vp but yeah and so is my eight-year-old there you go he is hoping to return for the final days of the regular season so uh see what happens with uh shohei otani obviously they got to get him right before the playoffs sticking with the dodgers andy paez is very likely to be activated during the team's homestand which starts on friday and it lasts until september 24th so the middle part of next week and he is likely to return without a rehab assignment he had uh some pins inserted into his hand there was a fracture in his hand so i'm not sure that he'll look like himself andy paez but they are hoping to get him back very soon edwin diaz will be activated on friday and we'll work in low leverage situations we have some bad red socks news here a role as chapman was unavailable uh for a save opportunity here on thursday night due to a lat issue garrett whitlock got the ninth in his place and picked up his fourth save so anytime you know a lat issue for a pitcher specifically a pitcher who throws as hard as chapman who is as jacked as chapman i mean it's it's it's a little concerning so uh would be nice to see him get back on the mound in the next couple of days wilson contraris was also hit by a pitch in the eighth inning of that game x-rays came back negative and he is day-to-day so we'll have to see if he is uh in the lineup on friday hunter goodman was i i think by the way i just want to say if if the
Speaker 3chapman thing doesn't turn out well and you need a replacement for the final week you know i think garrett whitlock would very clearly be the one who steps in for him he's been a true eighth inning guy all year and he's been a good one yeah and he picked up the save here
Speaker 1on thursday so i think that makes sense hunter goodman was out of the lineup again on thursday with that sore right thumb again it's we got a full week of chorus field and hunter goodman is hurt for most of it so far devin williams threw a live bp on thursday could be activated on friday it'll be interesting to see who gets the next save opportunity for the mets between devin williams and kodai senga cal quantrill said his back is fine and he'll make his next scheduled start this weekend against the blue jays seydan rafaela did some hitting off the traject machine on thursday he is on the il with a quad strain clearly trying to get him back before the playoffs colson montgomery was out of the lineup thursday after getting hit by a pitch on his left wrist on wednesday and earlier today, I was looking at strikeout rates in the second half of the season. Colson Montgomery, 40% K rate in the second half this year, which is pretty alarming for his long-term future. Yeah. I mean, both him, I was looking it up because of Murakami, and then I was like, oh, wait, Colson Montgomery has struck out even more than Murakami in the second half. Murakami's
Speaker 3hitting under 200 now, right? Like, just he got back over 200 because he had a two-for-four game here Thursday, but it's been a total collapse. Scott White once again vindicated.
Speaker 1Vindication!
Speaker 3I don't know. It's fine. It's been a mixed bag for Murakami this year, but I was pretty down on him
Speaker 1coming in. Yeah. I have exact numbers to put on it. It's a tale of two seasons for Murakami before the hamstring injury. He played 57 games. He hit 240 with 20 homers, a 938 OPS, 33% K rate, 72% zone contact, 61 games post-injury, 173, 12 homers, OPS around 700, 39% K rate, 67% zone contact, and the expected numbers during that stretch, 175 XBA, 359 X slug. So, it is pretty alarming, and that will make for a very I haven't read Chris's tough first baseman of rank for next season, but I have to imagine Murakami is on that list, so. Uh, sticking with the White Sox, they have moved Luis Castillo to their bullpen. He has been a disaster since being traded there. Uh, 776 ERA 179 whip. Very scary moment here for Jared Young of the New York Mets, who had to be carded off the field after he accidentally got kneed in the head by Noah McClain. They were both going for a ground ball. It was just kind of awkward positioning and, uh, yeah, it was pretty tough to watch. You know, they put him on a stretcher, they put him on a card as well, so I hope everything turns out alright there for Jared Young. Connolly Early is tentatively scheduled to make his Nationals debut September 26th against the Mets, so that will be next weekend, hopefully. Kate Povich will rejoin the Orioles this weekend and is likely to start against the Brewers. Good luck, buddy. Very tough matchup. Imaging on Carlos Correa's surgically repaired left ankle revealed inflammation, which explains why he likely will not not likely, why he will not return this season. Uh, remember this name! The Nationals activated Josiah Gray, who has not pitched in the big leagues since April of 2024. He had Tommy John surgery and then a flexor strain after that, so I don't know. I don't know what their plans are for him at this point. I mean, once upon a time, he was a highly regarded prospect. It hasn't really worked in the majors at all. Maybe he's, you know, in the bullpen next year. I don't know. Starting pitcher depth. Closer. Yeah. Nationals
Speaker 3have a closer now. I'm obviously. Scott? Obviously, there's no evidence of
Speaker 1that. I'm just dreaming. As long as I think it's Blake Butera, right? I always get confused because I know Drew Butera was a player before. I think they're actually brothers. I think they're related. Blake Butera, as long as he's there, the Nationals will not have a closer ever again. And Robert Murray of Fansided reported that the Nationals are close to a contract extension with Cade Cavalli. So, there you go. The Nationals are sold on Cavalli. That means we should be as well. I don't know. We'll see. Gotta dig into it in the offseason. Another one. Some waiver wire hitters. Scott, can you see yourself using any of these names in the final week? And up first, Lawrence Butler. A homer on the road. His 17th home run of the season. The second half has been very good for him. And guess what? Six home games next week. Only one lefty on the schedule. A little sneak peek. I'm gonna take a guess here. He's gotta be a sleeper hitter, right? He is.
Speaker 3Yeah. With all those home games and just one lefty. The the three athletics hitters who really stand out at home are all on the list. I wish their matchups were a little better in the six games. They're scheduled to face Walbert Arania, Peter Lambert, Hunter Brown, Hayden Wesneski. It's not terrible matchups, but it's not especially good matchups either. So, I wish they were a little better. But even so, the home environment there for so many athletics hitters is so favorable. Lawrence Butler, included.
Speaker 1All right. Xander Bogarts finished a single short of the cycle. He enjoyed his time in Coors Field. Three for five with his 12th home run, two RBI. His first home run since August 14th. He has been hitting better as of late last 17 games. 290, one homer, 10 runs, 9 RBI, 4 steals, 848 OPS. But, man, it just looks like Xander Bogarts has gotten old very fast. He is 69% rostered. He has six games next week. There's two lefties on the schedule. He also has to face the Dodgers. So, good game here, Scott. But, personally, I can't see myself using Xander Bogarts
Speaker 3the final week. How many years left on his contract? I believe seven? Oh, I looked into this.
Speaker 1Seven years, $175 million. Oh, my gosh. If Xander Bogarts was a free agent this offseason, Scott, what kind of contract do you think he would get?
Speaker 3I mean, a one-year deal. Would he get $10 million, even? He still grades out very well defensively. So, he probably would, as a shortstop. You say still. He used to not. That's a very recent development, but it is held. Maybe, like, veteran
Speaker 1leadership. He gets, like, a two-year, $30 million deal somewhere. I don't know. Two-year, $40 million? I don't know.
Speaker 3No, not two years. $40 million. I mean, he's down
Speaker 1to two F-war this season, and he still is owed that much money. I mean, that is one of the worst contracts in baseball. And it kind of feels like the Padres have multiple of the worst contracts in all of baseball right now. Let's move over to Trevor Story, who went two for four with his fourth home run. A clutch three-run homer in the eighth inning off of Jacob Latz. And in 16 games since returning, Trevor Story is hitting .349 with one homer, one steal, and .867 OPS. He is striking out quite a bit. 31% K-rate. He is 44% rostered. This weekend, he gets Ian Seymour, Freddie Peralta, Griffin Jacks. So, not the best matchups. Next week, six home games, five lefties on the schedule. Foster Griffin, Parker Messick, Joey Cantillo, Matthew Boyd, David Peterson, and then you throw Kevin Gossman in there. You know, Messick is really good, but I don't know. Those other lefties are hittable. I kind of think Story is like a middle infield option. Could make some sense. I mean, in Fenway against five lefties, I kind of like it.
Speaker 3It's not like he's a lefty masher. I didn't think to look it up. He isn't. I looked at
Speaker 1the past two years. It's pretty even splits.
Speaker 3Yeah, I looked at the Red Sox splits for this year to pick out any who may thrive against left-handers in case I want to include them on the sleeper hitters list, but I didn't think to look up Story. He's hardly played this year. Last year is dead even between righties and lefties. So, I don't know that that is a reason the five lefties is relevant at all to whether or not you use Story. I'm still pretty skeptical of him. 31% strikeout rate. It was 27% last year, but he had been running 30 to 32% strikeout rates pretty consistently before last year. I don't know though you should expect much better than that kind of strikeout rate, but that kind of strikeout rate does come with major drawbacks, and I'm not sure the matchups are good enough for me to use him eagerly. It's okay if he's your best option, but I don't think he'd be the best option for most people. I hear that
Speaker 1for sure. And shortstop has a lot of talent up top, but the only one I'm scared of, like Messick is good, but Foster Griffin has been hittable. Cantillo has been terrible. Matthew Boyd is home run prone. David Peterson's not very good. We just went through the left-right splits for Story the past couple years, but in his career, it's a 9-14 OPS against lefties, 770. Against righties? So, I don't know.
Speaker 3I'm kind of talking myself into this one. I, well, just to give some examples, Javier Sanoa, shortstop eligible, out there in about half the CBS leagues. I'd take him over Trevor Story. Dansby Swanson returning from the IL this weekend, I'd take him over Trevor Story. Yeah, he's missed
Speaker 1so much time, and he could be rusty.
Speaker 3The Cubs matchups are even better, though. Yeah, are they?
Speaker 1Yeah. Do the Marlins have good matchups next week?
Speaker 3They are probably about the same as Stories. They're not bad. They're not so good that I consider them for the top five, but they're not bad. Gotcha. And obviously, Sanoa's been hot for a long time. Yeah. Cole Carrick, with half a week of home games, shortstop eligible. I'd still use him over Story, and I don't have him among the sleeper hitters this week. I agree with
Speaker 1Carrick. I agree with Sanoa. I think I would use Story over Swanson. Even with the matchups, I feel like Swanson's probably going to be pretty rusty. He's just been out for so long. But, yeah. I think Story's kind of in that conversation, but yes. Probably somewhere near the bottom of that list. Walker Jenkins had a big game here on Thursday. He has not had many of those so far. Three for four with his second career home run. His first home run off of an actual pitcher. The first home run he hit was off of a position player, and he hit it off of a 101 mile per hour hour fastball from Ben Joyce and it was a majestic swing it was a really nice homer uh he's only started three of the past six games he has played 17 games so far 143 batting average two homers one steal 556 OPS striking out 30 percent of the time nice to see a big game here Scott but given the struggles I I don't think we could really recommend Walker Jenkins no it's been terrible I mean
Speaker 3he hasn't even the things he that he should do well he hasn't done well with that very high strikeout rate mostly weak contact just seems like a guy who wasn't quite ready for this chance and uh you know only 21 years old he had played at AAA 69 games so yeah he'd spent a good amount of time at AAA and obviously was doing very well there yeah but it had been a a short sprint to the majors overall and uh I don't know maybe maybe the light bulb clicked today and he'll have a very strong final week but I don't think you can presume that and get him active given how
Speaker 1bad Walker Jenkins has been yep I agree and one very deep name and one that I have always liked in a in an obscure Willie Calhoun kind of way that is Dustin Harris who is now playing with the Padres he went three for five with three RBI you know stat padding here in Coors Field so that that was nice to see he has started nine of the past 11 games for the Padres he has hit second in the lineup in his last five starts so it's just a good spot to be he's right between Tatis and Machado and uh Jackson Merrill so just a really good lineup spot to be in very deep name six games on the schedule next week it looks like there are two lefties maybe uh Blake Snell is listed as one of them we don't know if Snell's actually going to start but uh I don't know Scott and only 15
Speaker 3team Roto can I interest you in a Dustin Harris uh with with only one lefty on the schedule I think it's okay in deep leagues where you can't do much better I didn't seriously consider him as a sleeper hitter for this week average exit velocity overall did I write down the right number 84.8 uh if so that that's pretty terrible that is I'm not sure I wrote down the right number I wrote down the right number 84.8 that's about as bad as it gets so even though he's slashing 309 373 402 I mean that 402 number obviously isn't that impressive but the other two are mm-hmm not a lot of hard
Speaker 1contact from Dustin Harris all right some waiver wire pitchers for the final week we already spoke about walbert arania uh then I I only have two other very deep names here but uh anything to see with either one no Justin robleski I say he's a deep name because I didn't think he was rostered anywhere he's still 58 rostered that shocked me for Justin robleski but he looked great as the opener it was three perfect innings with three strikeouts at the Reds he only threw 32 pitches so I I don't really know exactly how much utility there is for Justin robleski and then Ethan peko who pitches for the Astros uh in bulk relief against the Royals five and two thirds one run four strikeouts to zero walks and uh he has now he now has a 377 era 112 whip uh in the six games that he has pitched for the Astros and I only wrote his name down because he's at the Mariners next week this is a really good matchup so would have to be a pretty deep league but uh anything here Scott Justin robleski and Ethan peko
Speaker 3I mean robleski wasn't even the bulk pitcher in that game so I don't I don't think you can trust him to get enough volume next week to use him peko gives up a lot of hard contact in the air it's generally not a good combination and he's not much of a bat misser so good outing today but I don't think there's that good of a future for Ethan peko if you needed one
Speaker 1last push to drop Kyle Harrison in your redraft league
Speaker 8you just got it he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone he gone that is
Speaker 1a really long he gone compilation there but uh the point is Kyle Harrison had another awful outing at the Pirates five runs four of those earned over just an inning and two-thirds and uh yeah he's just been dreadful for a while really uh there were a few starts after coming back from that health but there also have just been some really really terrible ones last four outings 21 era 389 whip he has given all of it back he is 79 rostered and okay to drop in all redraft leagues
Speaker 3yeah as we said last time and probably the time before that and I have no idea what to think about him for next season now he's gonna be a tricky one for sure yeah uh what went wrong for him this year I guess that's where you start it was thrown less strikes maybe the innings climb too high uh I I could throw a lot of the usual suspicions out there but I don't have a conclusive answer for you and I'm not sure I will uh but we obviously saw significant upside from him early on he was one of the biggest breakouts at starting pitcher before this disastrous finish so he's going to need to be drafted but I think it's going to be it at least for me it's going to have to be in a range where you don't have anything to lose I wonder if I could think of a good comp off the top of my head for a pitcher like that this year I don't know if there's a good comp uh I know Blake Snell was going pretty late by the end because he was starting on the IL but I don't know if that's that's not really a good comp so yeah I guess I don't have a good comp sorry yeah I have to think about that yeah I guess I don't have a good comp sorry yeah I have to think about that yeah I have to think about that yeah I guess I don't have a good comp sorry yeah I have to think about that yeah I have to think about that yeah I guess I don't have a good
Speaker 1comp sorry yeah I just think about that it's kind of a tricky player you'd probably have to sit down and think about it a little bit more to try and compare and contrast but yeah uh he Kyle Harrison will be a very tricky one for next season let's take our final break when we return I have some starter sick questions I have a weekend preview some bold predictions for next season we'll do all that right after this hey before we jump back into the show let's take a quick break but not just any break this is a refreshing break with Snapple we all know about Snapple's iconic real so let's take a minute to go over some of my faves Snapple real fact 1417 before 1859 baseball umpires sat behind home plate in rocking chairs Snapple real fact 1483 more than 100 baseballs are used during a typical professional baseball game Snapple real fact 253 the first TV remote control introduced in 1950 was called Lazy Bones Snapple real fact 2105 professional athletes used to perform in vaudeville in the off season so grab a Snapple take a second and enjoy the moment because let's be honest this might be the most refreshing part of your day Snapple make your break more interesting all right now let's get back to the show I've always dreamed of being able to order my
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Speaker 1rs10 welcome back fantasy baseball today starter sit these three pitchers for the final week of the season Taj Bradley took a tough uh I wrote tough loss because I assumed he was going to lose he did not lose it was a no decision at the angels he had 21 innings of three-run ball nine strikeouts to one walk he had 20 whiffs on 98 pitches and really everything outside of his fastball looked pretty awesome 71 started on CBS so not you know a must start across the board right now uh but he is at the Giants in the final week so Scott
Speaker 3I am in let's go start Bradley he's pretty close to must start I would say you'd have to have a deep pitching staff for him not to be yeah and I think with that good matchup he obviously is a pitcher with some flaws but I think the strengths outweigh the flaws and make Taj Bradley
Speaker 1worthwhile and the way he gets in trouble at times is walks and home runs but obviously pitching in San Francisco big ballpark I think that could help Taj Bradley as well over to Aaron Nola who continues his strong finish this one at the Mets seven shutout innings three hits three walks four strikeouts and over his last 10 starts a 212 ERA 118 whip and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and he's got a lot of power in the game and over his last 10 starts a 212 ERA 118 whip 57 strikeouts to 22 walks over 59 and a third innings and he unfortunately gets the Brewers next week so This is a tough one, Scott. It's like a movable object versus something. Unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Yeah, there you go. I completely butchered that. Yeah, Aaron Nola's pitching very well, but the Brewers lineup is also very good. So what do we do?
Speaker 3I'd lean against using Nola.
Speaker 1I agree.
Speaker 3In some leagues, you may not have much of a choice, and he may do fine. I think the Brewers are as well positioned as any team to kind of kick back the last week. So maybe he won't have to face the full brunt of their lineup. But Nola's had a really excellent final two months here at a time when everybody was writing him off. And I don't know that there isn't some major single thing that's changed to help him take off here. But there wasn't a single major thing that changed. to bring about his collapse either. So I think I'm mostly buying into it. I think something subtle he figured out maybe in his delivery or I don't know. Again, I could only theorize, but the collapse wasn't obvious enough that I bought into it right when it happened. And I think hopefully now he's figured out what brought it about.
Speaker 1We got a weird start here from Frambois Valdez at the White Sox. Five innings, three hits, three runs, four walks, eight strikeouts. He had 16 whiffs on 90 pitches. He leaned into that curveball and actually was really good. It had nine of the 16 whiffs. Under the hood, I actually thought the start was pretty good. But, you know, four walks, 62% strikes. I don't know that he should have walked that many, but it's Frambois Valdez. And he gets the Nationals next week. They are awesome against lefties. I mean, we've told you a while ago that you could drop Frambois Valdez if anyone else is out there. So definitely do not use him in the final week against the Washington Nationals. Some leftovers here from Thursday's action. Sal Stewart hit his 32nd home run, his first homer since August 30th. So nice to see a little power here in September. It was a little bit of a rough September before this home run. Well, yes and no.
Speaker 3You know, he's gotten his batting average back up over 270 again.
Speaker 1Yeah. He had a drop. Yeah. It's just the power hasn't been there in September, but.
Speaker 3Sure. But I feel better about Sal Stewart now than when he was hitting like 250. Because it's like, okay, he's going to be, he's been a plus in all five categories as a rookie with third base eligibility. Also second base eligibility, which isn't going to carry over to next year, but the third base will and is even more valuable.
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3So I think he's a strong contender for a round two pick. The first two, two rounds that I published earlier this week excluded him, but he was probably the last cut. And, you know, it's the back half of the first, the back half of the second round for me is going to be, there's a lot of room for argument. Like, and I might talk myself into a completely different group of six. Sal Stewart would be one of the candidates.
Speaker 1Yeah. I was looking at his splits earlier today too. His home road stuff is very even. His earlier this season, he was destroying lefties. And he was kind of struggling against righties, but that has evened out as well. I mean, 8.58 against lefties, 8.01 against righties. So it's overall very, very balanced profile here for Sal Stewart. Liam Hicks has been even better with Tampa Bay than he was with the Marlins. He went two for four with a walk and two RBI, 34 games with the Rays, 297 batting average, 390 OBP, four homers, 19 RBI, and 8.55 OPS. Chandler Simpson had yet another big game, two for four with two runs, two RBI, two steals. The updated numbers since June 20th, 358 batting average with 30 steals for Chandler Simpson. Jordan Alvarez hit his 40th home run. He has homered in two of his last three games. Nice to see him potentially finishing strong. You know, he had, it's not a bad month, but he's kind of slowed down a little bit. I wonder if that ankle actually has been bothering him. And then Morikami, two for four with a triple, his 32nd home run. Needed a big game. I mentioned the pre-injury, post-injury numbers very, very drastic stuff there. It's got anything to add here on Morikami, Alvarez, Simpson, or Liam Hicks.
Speaker 3I don't think so. What do you think of Alvarez for next year? I,
Speaker 1I think he should be like a mid to late first rounder. That's what I've been seeing. I don't know that I will be the one to do it though. So you don't even like him there. My, I, I have him, I have him probably rank him around there. Like that's probably where he should go, but I, I haven't, I haven't fourth. I still think he has, a lot of, a lot of risk as a first round player. Yeah, sure.
Speaker 3Not performance wise. I think performance wise, he's very bankable. It's just, he's only had one year where he's missed a ton of time and it was 20, uh, 25, but, um, had his healthiest season. Uh, prior to that, you know, he might have a short IL stint that had kind of been the norm with him. I think, I think he's the closest thing to in his prime Aaron judge that is exists in the player pool. And he's going to retain outfield eligibility next year, which is huge. So I've kind of been surprised that some of the, obviously it's very early and there isn't a lot of, uh, of, or of, of 20, 20, 20, 27 draft info out there. But I have been surprised that, uh, what is out there doesn't view him as a top five overall pick. Cause I think he very clearly is for me. And frankly, I don't think it would be the most upsetting thing ever to see Jordan Alvarez go number one, given the questions about Shohei Otani and Aaron judge. And you know, if, if you're on the more skeptical side with Pete Crow Armstrong,
Speaker 1I think you can make that argument in a points league. I think in Roto, it is still hard to do with Pete Crow Armstrong. It's just like, even if he takes a step back, I probably would still expect him to be close to a 30, 30 player. Even if the batting average comes down to like two 60 or whatever, it's just like those, those, that five category production with the steals. I think it's kind of hard to place Alvarez over him. We don't,
Speaker 3we don't do that with judge and Otani. Like we're fine with them not being big stolen bases.
Speaker 1That's been the argument for years. Why like Bobby Witt jr. Goes ahead of them in some people's eyes. It's because Bobby Witt gives you the big seal total as well.
Speaker 3But we, that was, that was assuming Bobby Witt was a 30 Homer guy, which he was for a couple of years. Now he seems more like a 20 Homer guy.
Speaker 1Yeah. And I'm not saying Bobby Witt is in that conversation still, but I'm saying in the past, he was in that top three conversation because of the across the board production with the steals, even though he wasn't as good of a hitter on paper as like judge or Otani was. So that's why I would make that same argument for PCA. Yeah.
Speaker 3I know. I know this isn't considered, the majority of you in Roto. I think batting average is much more important to fill in the early rounds than stolen bases.
Speaker 1I don't necessarily disagree with that. I, I just, I'm always in love with like the players that contribute across the board, but yeah, I mean, if you know, if you have the steals targets that you know that you can get later on, I could totally see making that case for it. So it's not crazy. I just, again, I mentioned this yesterday. I think what I'm leaning towards right now is that I'm just, especially in the early rounds, too. I'm going to be very pick and choosy and just try to avoid risk as much as I can in the early rounds. Maybe that's me overreacting to this year just because so many first round picks were so bad and let us down. But again, it's like, I got to sit down and think more about it.
Speaker 3Some of the, like what, one of the more risky options, not necessarily by us, but the drafting population as a whole, one of the riskier options was like junior common arrow. And yeah,
Speaker 1I've completely thrown that out. I think Cameron arrow is worthy of like a mid first round pick.
Speaker 3Well, now I'm blanking on it. Like, I don't know. It wasn't really easy to detect which ones were going to let us down. Cal Raleigh. Sure. That, that I think everybody saw coming, but Nick Kurtz was considered risky. He was great before he got hurt.
Speaker 1True. Yeah. Yeah.
Speaker 3Anyway,
Speaker 1a lot of it is injury related stuff too. It's just like, you know, I love Aaron judge, but I'm going to be a little scared to draft him as like a top three, top five, player next season. And just some of those injury things kind of concern me with Alvarez too, but we have a long time to figure that out. Some pitching leftovers. Drew Rasmussen picked up his 15th win. This one against the athletics, five shutout innings with three strikeouts only through 76 pitches. I think this is part of the raise, just kind of tapering him back. Final couple of starts of the regular season. I think they'll kind of ramp that back up in the playoffs when they need him. Michael King turned in a quality start at the Rockies, six innings, two runs, six strikeouts. He has turned in eight straight quality starts. And during that span, one 95 era, one Oh seven whip. Nolan McLean took a tough loss, set a six innings of one run ball, five strikeouts. He, you know, some things lately, the walks being up, the whips being way down three or more walks in five of his last six. And he has just an 8% swinging strike rate over his last eight starts. Don't love those trends for Nolan McLean and Sonny gray turned in a quality start at the Rangers, six and a third, three hits, three runs, three walks, six strikeouts here. Did have 16 whiffs on 102 pitches. Just a very consistent season for him. Three earned runs or fewer in 24 of 28 starts. He has overperformed his ERA estimators, but that was a bad bus call by me. Sonny Gray has been very, very consistent this year. Scott, anything to add on Gray, McClain, Michael King, and Drew Rasmussen?
Speaker 3I mean, certainly wouldn't be the first time that a fantasy analyst has struggled to figure out what's going on with Sonny Gray. You're in good company with that.
Speaker 1True.
Speaker 3I noticed Nolan McClain. He threw his sinker a ton in this start. 48% of the time, I believe it was. And he has been leaning on a lot in recent starts. So he only got five strikeouts in this one. Only had four whiffs on 82 pitches. Yep. He's really leaned. He's leaned into the pitch-to-contact approach. And I still wonder where his strikeout rate is going to end up for the bulk of his career. This year, he's now at 9.9K per nine, which is still really good. Not as good as maybe some people were hoping for. Lower than last year, the little time we saw him. But still, almost 10K per nine. You can't complain too much about that. His swinging strike rate is below 10%. Yep. And this recent stretch of leaning so much on the sinker, I don't know. I think there is a version of Nolan McClain that is less than a strikeout per inning. And I'd be a little fearful in investing too high of a pick in him next year. I don't... I'm not ready to get into specifics on that. I think he's got to be top 20. But there's some reluctance there for me.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think he's a better points league play. I made this comp. We might have all made this comp before this season. I think long term, I still kind of view him as a Logan Webb type pitcher. The one thing that does help Nolan McClain, and it's kind of a wonky profile, he doesn't get a lot of whiffs. But he, among qualified pitchers, he leads all pitchers in called strike percentage. So he gets a lot of movement on his pitches. And I think that's why he can rack up strikeouts is because he gets a lot of called strikes. But I'm not exactly sure how sticky that is year over year in terms of just like getting strikeouts at the rate he is, you know, at nearly 10K per nine. So I would probably bet on that coming down next season. The call to the bullpen for the Pirates. Mason Montgomery got the final four outs for his 14th save for the Phillies. Yohan Duran picked up his 32nd save. For the White Sox, you know, just the other day, Chris and I were saying, ah, it feels like every time the White Sox use him in multi-innings, that's when he blows a save. He got the final seven outs, two and a third innings for his ninth save of the season. And the lefty, Brian Hudson, recorded four outs across the fifth and sixth. So the White Sox bullpen usage is kind of hard to figure out. Grant Taylor is still the highest leverage guy, but sometimes that's earlier in the game.
Speaker 3Just say the line, Frank.
Speaker 1The White Sox do not have a closer and they never will ever again. For the Rangers, Jacob Latz entered with no outs in the eighth. Two runners on, a two-run lead. He got a pop out and then he gave up a three-run homer to Trevor Story. So he took the blown save and the loss in that one. For the Angels, Ben Joyce got the ninth inning with a two-run lead. He gave up a two-run homer to Walker Jenkins. He also took a blown save. For the Twins, Yoandris Gomez got the bottom of the 10th inning with a one-run lead. He allowed the Manford man to score. And so he took the blown save. Lefty Cody Funderburg came in and he immediately gave up a walk-off RBI single. And the Angels won in extras. A little weekend preview for those who play in daily lineup leagues. And Scott, we will start on the pitching side. Your favorite. To stream or not to stream. On Friday, we have Dustin May at the Orioles. Zach Norton home against the Phillies. Kumar Rocker is home against the Blue Jays. Tyler Malley at the Astros. Connor Prelip is at the Angels. Grayson Rodriguez home against the Twins. Nick Pavetta home against the Marlins. And Peter Lambert is home against the Braves.
Speaker 3There are a number of decent options here. Tyler Malley at Houston is my favorite just because he's been so bankable with the Braves. His opponent, Peter Lambert against the Braves. I don't mind him either. Nick Pavetta against the Marlins. You worry about how deep he's going to go in that game, but I think the results could be fine. Honestly, all of these guys you listed off except for Kumar Rocker are of interest, of some interest to me. I would be pretty hard-pressed to start Grayson Rodriguez. The rest, though, I don't mind so much. Dustin May at Baltimore. Zach Thorne against the Phillies. Connor Prelip at the Angels. I'm okay with all of those if you need to stream. I'm not eager to do it. I think things could go very wrong for all of them, but if streaming's your thing, it's probably better than most of them. Most of what you'll find this weekend.
Speaker 1Yeah. I like Mally. I think Dustin May could have a good start. He is kind of a random number generator, which I know you mentioned I think yesterday. And then the Fortune favors the Bold or the Brave. Now, I can't remember which one it actually is. It's the Bold, Frank. That's a stupid commercial in my head.
Speaker 3The commercial said Brave, but I've always heard it is the Bold otherwise.
Speaker 1I do agree with you. Actually, no. Mally, May, Pavetta at the top, and then the Bold picks would be, I think, Zach Thornton and Conor Prelip on Friday. On Saturday, Robert Gasser is...
Speaker 3I like Lambert second most to Mally just to reinforce that.
Speaker 1All right. On Saturday, we have Robert Gasser at the Orioles. Christian Scott home against the Phillies. Jacob Lopez is at the Guardians. Bubba Chandler home against the Royals. Cal Quantrill home against the Blue Jays, but coming off that back injury in his last start. Grant Holmes is at the Astros. Hayden Wesneski home against the Braves. Jackson Jobe at the White Sox. White Sox, Andrew Alvarez at the Cardinals. And Michael McGreevy home against the Nationals.
Speaker 3Cal Quantrill against the Blue Jays is probably my favorite with the kind of run he's on and supposedly his back is fine and he pitched through it and everything went fine last time.
Speaker 1It's a little risky, but I feel like, yeah, he's at the top for Saturday.
Speaker 3And I think Jacob Lopez is still probably second at Cleveland. Good matchup.
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3His last two starts have been shaky, but he was on a really dominant run before then. If you're going to stream, I think that's still a better choice than most of what's here. Third choice might be Andrew Alvarez at St. Louis. I think he's a high floor play with all the ground balls he gets and has gotten some good results lately.
Speaker 1I think I would put Bubba Chandler third on the list, but I don't mind Alvarez either. I think Quantrill, Lopez, Chandler are my top three. And then kind of on the outside looking in, I agree on that. I agree on Alvarez. I think McGreevy is a high floor, but there is some blow-up potential against the Nationals. And then Christian Scott, if you need strikeouts, I think that could work against the Phillies. But again, those are kind of like, you know, outside looking in for me. And then on Sunday, Will Warren is at the D-backs. Corbin Burns is facing the Yankees. Jonah Tong home against the Phillies. Jack Perkins is at the Guardians. Griffin Jacks home against the Red Sox. Martin Perez at the Astros. Davis Martin home against the Tigers. Quinn Matthews home against the Phillies. Dean Kramer at the Angels. Ryan Johnson home against the Twins. And Walker Bueller home against the Marlins. Hmm.
Speaker 3I guess I'm gonna say Griffin Jacks. Yeah. I don't see a better choice. And I don't know. Ryan Johnson may be okay.
Speaker 1I like the way Will Warren has looked and the D-backs are bad against righties. So I think that was okay.
Speaker 3That's not a bad. I'd probably take him over Ryan Johnson. But I do think there's something to Ryan Johnson's recent success. Obviously a really good start against the Mariners last time. Last seven starts 204 ERA 101 whip. Not many strikeouts. He's more of a ground ball guy. But 204 ERA 101 whip. That coincides. The start of that seven start stretch was the day Mike Maddox, the Angels pitching coach, was fired. And the new pitching coach in the interim pitching coach for the Angels has allowed Ryan Johnson to do this unorthodox pregame routine that the Angels hadn't been letting him do previously. And it may be a contributing factor to this stretch. He's also thrown his cutter a lot more. And it's a good pitch which may be the better explanation. But that's a lot to give you for a streamer. But I think Ryan Johnson against the Twins might not be a bad choice.
Speaker 1Yeah, I think Jax Warren and Johnson would be my top three. And I like the way Quinn Matthews' look but the Nationals are really good against lefties so that one's a little bit tough. He would probably be the fourth option. And then the bold picks. Jonah Tong looked good in his last start but it's a very small sample. It's risky against the Phillies and yeah, it probably ends there. So those would probably be my top five I guess for Sunday. Jax, Warren, Johnson, Matthews and Tong in that order.
Speaker 3Somebody was asking about Andrew Painter on Saturday. I presume he was just too rostered for you to include him here. At the Mets, I think he's probably better than anyone else we mentioned Saturday. Yeah, I'd put him ahead of Jacob Lopez. I'd probably put him behind Cal Quantrill.
Speaker 1I don't know why I didn't. Well, MLB.com has a TBD for the Phillies on Saturday. So that's probably why I didn't include him. Let me see. Fan graphs, probable pitchers have. They have Painter going on Saturday. So I don't know. Maybe they're thinking about doing like an opener with Painter on Saturday or something like that. Yeah, I don't know. I think it's risky. But I mean, Jacob Lopez is risky too. I think I would take Quantrill, Lopez, and Chandler all ahead of Painter. I think I would put him fourth on the list. Okay. Some hitters to stream this weekend. Again, for those who play in daily lineup leagues, the Mariners are in Coors Field. And they are facing three right-handed Panthers. So Dom Canzone, Lazaro Montes, Cole Young, J.P. Crawford, I think are all at the top of the list. The Rockies are facing two righties and one lefty. So I think T.J. Rumfield, Cole Carrig, and Kyle Karros are very good. I think in deeper leagues.
Speaker 3They're all at home, notably. Yes. So most Rockies hitters are a good choice. But those three especially, sure.
Speaker 1And then in deeper leagues, Connor Norby, Adele Amador, and Zach Veen could be some options there. The Cubs are in Great American Small Park this weekend. They face a combination of Chase. Burns and Brandon Williamson on Friday. Nick Lodolo on Saturday. And then Rhett Lowder on Sunday. So it's like two righties and two lefties, kind of. So really the only name I could throw out there is Pedro Ramirez because everyone else is rostered for the Cubs.
Speaker 3And I'm not sure it won't be Dansby Swanson instead. Like if Swanson comes back this weekend.
Speaker 1Is he back this weekend? I thought he would be back on Monday or Tuesday.
Speaker 3I just, the last I saw, he could be activated for the weekend series. But maybe I didn't know. I didn't see the most recent thing.
Speaker 1Yeah, I haven't seen anything recent either. I just thought it was going to be next week. But it could be. So it said one week away from activation. And that was on the 11th. So yeah, I guess it could be on Friday. So if Swanson's activated, do not pick up and use Pedro Ramirez. The Reds are obviously at home. They're facing Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, and David Peterson. So I think Tyler Stevenson is a name. If you're in a deep league, very deep league. Juan Brito has been getting playing time for the Reds. I like the Tigers left-handed hitters. They're facing three righties. For the White Sox, Nick Sandlin or David Sandlin. I don't know, something Sandlin. Sean Burke and Davis Martin. So Max Clark makes sense. A deeper name is Colt Keith. I like the Padres lefties. Solid spot here against Tyler Phillips, Uri Perez, and Sandy Alcantara. So it's just deeper names. It's Jake Cronenworth and Dustin Harris. Marlins lefties face Nick Pavetta, Casey Mize, and Walker Buehler. So Griffin Conine and Joe Mack. And if you need steals in particular, Henry Bolte has seven. In the month of September. Jonah Cox has five. Max Clark has four. Zach Gelof has four. Zach Gelof has four. Anthony Volpe has four. And John Peck of the Tigers also has four. We are at an hour. But you know what, Scott? We said we're giving bold predictions. So let's have a little fun. Let's do some rapid fire. We'll wrap up with these. Scott has an article on the site with a bunch of these bold predictions. I'm pretty sure we revealed a lot of them last week already. But we will talk about whichever ones we have. And I don't know if, because I read your article, Scott. I don't know if it was just subconsciously in my mind. But the first thing I thought of was there has to be something Bryce Eldridge related for me. And so my bold prediction is that Bryce Eldridge would lead all first baseman in home runs next year. Your bold prediction is that he would hit 35 home runs. So I think those are kind of close.
Speaker 3Yours is a little bolder, actually. Because I don't think 35 home runs. I don't think 35 home runs would lead first base.
Speaker 1Just from a perspective, Matt Olson currently leads with 39.
Speaker 3Yeah. Yeah, I think. Clearly, we're both saying that Bryce Eldridge has a ton of power. And he looked very good as a rookie. The strikeout rate was better. But given the quality of contact, which is more on the spectrum of a Matt Olson or a Rafael Devers, there is a lot more to... to deliver on here as a power hitter. And we think he's close enough. It's not like he even had a bad launch angle. His ground ball rate's below 40%. So...
Speaker 1Yeah.
Speaker 3He's hit the majority of his home runs at home. So that doesn't seem like the obstacle.
Speaker 1I think he's just one tweak away. If you look at his profile, he hits a lot of line drives. He actually is more of a... So far in his career, he's a pure hitter. He's been a line drive hitter. Hitter to all fields. Where... If he tweaks that a little bit and just hits the ball in the air a little bit more, talking fly balls, not line drives. Fly balls and to the pull side a little bit more, even though he plays in San Francisco. I totally get that. But it does remind me kind of of Aaron Judge. No one's Aaron Judge. I get that. But Aaron Judge, if you watch him, like, throughout his career, he's more of a line drive hitter. He just hits the ball to all fields. But he just hits the ball so hard that it could go out anywhere. And I think there's a little bit of that to Bryce Eldridge. But I think he's just, like, one tweak away from turning that more into, like, home run power. And I think we could get, like, a 40 home run season out of him as soon as next year. All right, Scott, let's just fire off a couple of them. Well, we'll go back and forth, but what's your next bold prediction you'd like to mention?
Speaker 3I will say that Peyton Tolley will win the AL Cy Young. I think he's poised...
Speaker 1I love it, man. I wanted to do a Tolley one, too. I think he's so good.
Speaker 3I think he's poised to make a Cam Schlittler-like leap. And part of the reason I say that is if you look at the start, where he's thrown his curveball at least 10% of the time, they basically look like Cam Schlittler's numbers this year. The ones where he throws his curveball less than 10% of the time, he's got, like, an ERA over 4 or a whip over 1.25. I don't have the most updated numbers, but it's really ordinary numbers. So when he makes proper use of that curveball, which isn't a big ask, 10%, like, he's dominant. And I think... I think we'll see him figure that out next year. He might make a leap anyway, but, yeah. I think Cy Young is definitely a possibility for Peyton Tolley.
Speaker 1I think a lot of people are going to be in the same boat as we are, Scott. And I'm just kind of nervous about where the ADP is going to wind up for Peyton Tolley. I think he'll probably be in regardless, unless it's just some really crazy astronomical number. But I think he'll probably be drafted as a top 24 starting pitcher. Top 20, maybe. And, I mean, where does that put him in the ADP? Like, maybe 6th or 7th round? Would you be all right drafting him there, if that's the cost?
Speaker 3I think so. It's always hard to say when you don't have the full context of what else is going in that range. But I feel like I'd be okay with that.
Speaker 1All right. I think so, too. We're going to be battling it out for Peyton Tolley next season. Jeremy Pena goes 25-25. He finishes as a top 3 shortstop next season. So, last year, he went 17-20. He did that in 125 games over a full season. That's 22 homers, 25 steals. This year, 20 homers, 9 steals in 103 games. That is a 31-homer, 14-steal pace. And I do believe he ran less this year because he dealt with a bunch of lower body injuries. There was a hamstring. I think there was a calf or, like, an ankle or something. So, I don't know. I think that's part of why he just ran less this year. But he's still super fast. He's 93rd percentile sprint speed. His pulled air rate has been up over 20% two years in a row as a right-handed hitter in Houston. So, I really like that. They have that short porch there in left field. And he has missed time the past two years. But entering a contract year, guys tend to stay on the field more in their contract year. They tend to run more in their contract year as well. So, if we get close to a full season out of Pena, I could see him going 25-25. Good batting average. His run pace this year, run scored, is, like, 114. I think we could just get, like, a massive season from Jeremy Pena next year. So, I'm in. That's my bold prediction. Scott, either you could comment on that or go on to your next one.
Speaker 3Top three is...
Speaker 1It would be tough. It would, yeah. It's, like, him, Bobby Witt, and Allie De La Cruz. And then it's, like, you know, you got to beat out Lindor and Abrams and a whole bunch of talented guys.
Speaker 3Yeah, I... It's bold. It's bold. I can't get with you on that one. I can't get with you on that one, even directionally. But that's fine. Sal Stewart will have an even stronger follow-up, which kind of plays off what I said earlier. Love it. Well, I think there's... I'm sensing a lot of skepticism about a follow-up for Sal Stewart, because the OPS isn't that impressive, given his counting stats, and the war isn't that impressive. And I think there's going to be a sentiment he overachieved and will naturally take a step back. But I see a lot more areas, where he could gain than lose. Like, for as good as his home run production was, the pull-air rate wasn't that great. He could definitely make gains there. He was a much better line-drive hitter and contact hitter in the minors than he's been in his rookie season. So I think he's going to trend closer to those rates as he gets more comfortable. And I think, like I was saying earlier, he's got the batting average over .270 now. So it's hard to say he's a liability. But I think he could be a standout in batting average in addition to everything else. he provides.
Speaker 1Yeah, the you know, the stack Cass Page doesn't really jump off the screen there for Sal Stewart. He's been so productive. It's like, how can you argue against it? Obviously, home games in Great American Small Park, you love that. I feel like their lineup should be better than it is, but I feel like I say that every year. It's like, you know, him and Ellie De La Cruz is a one-two punch. It feels like that lineup should be better, but, man, it's like there really isn't much outside of those two, unfortunately, for the Reds. Would be nice for them to invest in their lineup. I know that they had interest in Kyle Schwarber before the season, but then once they didn't get him, they just kind of put that money into Eugenio Suarez, so questions remain about the Reds' lineup. I think Sal Stewart is pretty legit. Yeah, I have to dig in a little bit more on him, but as of now, I think I would be okay using a second or third round pick on Sal Stewart. My next bold prediction is that Quinn Matthews will be 2027's version of Parker Messick. So this is a big prospect. Burst onto the scene a few years back. He struggled big time with control in the minors. I think that shoulder injury that he dealt with had a lot to do with it. Presumably, he's passed the shoulder injury and still dealt with control issues this year, but, you know, once upon a time, Parker Messick struggled with control in the minors as well. They're both lefties with awesome change-ups. The Cardinals have a great defense behind their pitchers as well, and Quinn Matthews is finishing strong here. It's back-to-back quality starts. He has seven-plus strikeouts. And three of seven starts. So, yeah, Quinn Matthews, big leap. And, look, to be Parker Messick would be pretty tough. Parker Messick has, like, a, what, 260 ERA or something like that. But, basically, I think a big breakout season coming for Quinn Matthews.
Speaker 3So, here we go. All right, back over to you. Talked about this one a little yesterday. Luke Kieschel will outperform Bryce Terang. The numbers over the past two months, two months or three months, I think it's two months, for Luke Kieschel have been, pretty stellar, and we've seen the pull error rate especially improve. And that was something that allowed him to hit for power in the minors. Not great contact in terms of quality down there either, but good pull error rate, so he delivered power. If he figures out how to hit for power in the majors, which, again, we've seen happen more recently here, I think the top-line outcome, the top-line results for Kieschel and Terang could be very similar.
Speaker 1Yeah, the one thing with Kieschel, I like the pull, the error rate being up, like, his stack cast stuff is still just so bad. I guess that's the one point in Terang's favor, is that he has actually legitimately hit the ball harder over the past two seasons.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's kind of, they come about their power in opposite ways, presuming Kieschel does deliver on the power. Terang actually does hit the ball hard, but with terrible pull error rate. And Kieschel doesn't, but hopefully with a good one.
Speaker 1All right, this next one, Scott, this is, there is Boll. And then there's BOLD, all caps, bolded font. This is one of those. I mean, it's near impossible, but hear me out. The NL Central Pitcher Parlay. Logan Henderson outperforms Jacob Miziorowski, and Jared Jones outperforms Paul Skeens. There's a lot going on there. I totally get that. But this, to me, is a combo of, I like the skills for both Logan Henderson and Jared Jones, and I, I think there is elevated injury risk for both Jacob Miziorowski and Paul Skeens for next year. So this is just.
Speaker 3So you're predicting an injury for Miziorowski. That's what's going on here.
Speaker 1That's the only way it would happen. Like, that's what I'm baking in, is that, you know, the Miz and Skeens miss sometime next year. And again, I don't want that to happen. Let me be very clear. I don't want that to happen.
Speaker 3You're such a ghoul, Frank. Come on.
Speaker 1But, you know, as hard as the Miz throws, and Paul Skeens, the way that the second half has gone, it's like, eh. So, look, those guys wind up missing some time next year. And I just, I buy the skills that we've seen from Logan Henderson and Jared Jones. I think that they can, Jared Jones in particular could take a very big leap. And I think Logan Henderson could just kind of keep chugging along and doing what he's been doing. It's three earned runs or fewer in all 22 career starts. Among starting pitchers with 90 innings this year, Logan Henderson, 26% K-walk rate. That is second in the majors behind only Jacob Miziorowski, who was just blowing away the rest of the competition. But, you know, he, he, he, he does it in like a deception over stuff kind of way. Nobody's really been able to figure it out against Logan Henderson so far. So I, I like the way obviously his career has gotten off to and the way he's trending. And then Jared Jones, I know he's kind of been a lightning rod here on the podcast. Like his career numbers are not great so far, but I think, I think there's a lot of meat still on the bone here. This year, his XCRA is 343. His FIP is 350, 14 and a half percent swinging strike rate. If he qualified, that would be, uh, fifth best among starting pitchers, uh, behind only Jacob Miziorowski, Jacob DeGrom, Gavin Williams, and Christopher Sanchez. And he has three different pitches with a whiff rate over 39%. So I, I, I think there is a big leap coming here for Jared Jones. And I think there's a chance, um, some of those other aces can, can miss time. So that's a really far out kind of lots of moving parts in that bold prediction.
Speaker 3Really? Yes.
Speaker 1That's a crazy one.
Speaker 3Uh, all right. One, another one for me. Yeah.
Speaker 1Throw out a couple. I mean, I have a couple here that I'll, I'll just mention, I didn't really flush them out, but I, I, you know, they were just top of mind, but yeah,
Speaker 3go for it. George Kirby will get traded and enjoy a career high in strikeouts. So kind of a double dip there. He was rumored to potentially for teams having interest in him at the trade deadline this year. So that doesn't seem so far fetched. And actually in response to a tweet from Jeff pass and pointing that out, that teams were interested, Nick Pollock tweeted out. Yes, please. I'll bang the table that Kirby's biggest problem is not stuff and it's not even command. It's approach and sequencing. Uh, get him to a new club who knows how to polish his sweeper sinker attack to right-handed batters. And he's an ace. I'll also note myself that George Kirby, if you look at the starts where he has thrown his fastball more than 40% of the time, which isn't that many, but they've been dominant. And I think he's just like many Mariners pitchers. He's just kind of gotten confused about what, what pitches to throw.
Speaker 4Yeah.
Speaker 3Um, similar Reed Detmers will get traded and compete for a Cy Young. I think he's already that caliber of pitcher. It's just gone on, gone unnoticed because the angels have not given him many wins. He's five and a record. I believe it still is.
Speaker 1Let's get him on the Cubs, man. I know they were close to getting him at the trade deadline, but can you imagine Reed Detmers with that defense behind him? My goodness,
Speaker 3Franklin Arias and Sebastian Walcott will be on the opening day. Roster. That's a Red Sox shortstop prospect and a Rangers shortstop prospect. They're both 20. I think maybe Walcott's 21. I don't think either would be playing shortstop for their respective clubs, probably Arias at second and Walcott at third. But, but yeah, I think, I think they've shown enough in the minors this year that they'll push for a spot this spring and next spring. Uh, and let's finish off with, uh, Cam Smith. We'll have a breakout akin to Jordan Walker's, 2026. This is mostly about me looking at the pedigree and looking at the contact quality. Walker's bat speed. This is my favorite stat relating the two Walker's bat speed is average bat speed is a hundredth percentile. So basically he's the best at that average bat speed. Smith's is 99th percentile.
Speaker 1Yeah.
Speaker 3Um,
Speaker 1Walker's fast too. He's a great athlete.
Speaker 3Yeah. Walker's max exit velocity is 99th percentile. Smith's is 95th percentile. So like the, the, the, the tools are there. I don't know exactly what he needs to polish to tap into it. I don't know exactly what Walker polished to finally tap into it, but I think just that those final finishing touches that, that were applied to Walker this year, I think could happen for Cam Smith next year.
Speaker 1All right. These are just ones that I toyed with. I didn't completely kind of flesh them out here. Um, I thought they were a little bit kind of over the top too, but, uh, Miguel Vargas finishes top, three and AL MVP voting next season. It's just hard to get there because his defense is so bad, but he's actually underperformed his expected stats. Like I think there's a chance that Miguel Vargas just gets better next year. Uh, Spencer Jones goes 30, 30, despite leading the league in strikeouts. I thought that was a fun one. Uh, AL West par, uh, parlay Henry Bolte outperforms Julio Rodriguez. That's a crazy one too. But, um, you know, look, Bolte would have to figure out some of the launch angle stuff, but full, full season in Sacramento. I could see him like, look, high end scenario going 2030 with a solid batting average. And if he leads off for that A's lineup, like maybe he could score a bunch of runs and, you know, Julio Rodriguez just kind of has a, he's had some down seasons so far in his career. And if he has another down season, like, I don't know, maybe Henry Bolte, uh, could surpass him, but obviously that's super bold and, and no one's actually expecting that. The last one I had was Walbert Arreña leads the AL and ERA, which I mentioned earlier. So obviously no mention of whip because I do think his whip will be higher, but I, I think the, the ERA could be very good. So any thoughts on those four Scott there? They're, they're pretty out there.
Speaker 3I think they are all reasonable. I mean, Henry Bolte outperforming Julio Rodriguez. Um, that's going to be the toughest sell for me. I, I think Henry Bolte is good and has a bright future, but I, I also think Julio Rodriguez, is going to bounce back as a first-round caliber bet. next year so i don't think henry bolte has that kind of upside but the others the others i could see they seem plausible obviously a stretch obviously not something you'd bet on but plausible
Speaker 1all right those are some way too early bold predictions and part of what made this difficult is that like i haven't really sat down and did deep dives on all these players yet so it's all just kind of like top of mind stuff so uh don't hold this to those completely i'm sure our bold predictions will change by the time we get to march but just some directionally where my mind is headed as of now we are gonna wrap there for scott i am frank thanks as always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today please make sure to follow and leave a five-star rating on apple or spotify and we will be back again next week bye
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