Which RBs To Target and Which RBs To Fade This Season (Episode 1011 with Evan Silva, Adam Levitan, John Daigle)

(upbeat music) Hello and welcome to episode 1,011 of The Official, established the run.com podcast. My name is Adam Levitan, joined by Evan Silva and John Dagle and NFL Offences continue to evolve back to the run. The running back position continues to evolve as a whole and running back remains the most important part of fantasy football. Evan, how's it going today? - It's going well. Probably my favorite position to watch in the NFL is running back and as you mentioned, the importance of the running game has made at least a little bit of a return. So it'll be fun to break it all down today. - Indeed, Dagle, how's it going? - Doing well, the time of the year, where everyone tunes into establish the run, there's always rankings and tears changes going on. So we can feel the season getting much closer. - Indeed. On today's show, we are going to be talking all things running back. Had to handle the early rounds, player takes, targets, busts, sleepers, handcuffing and more. If you have a fantasy draft coming up and I know you do, we can help. I promise no one dedicates more time and frankly, money to ensuring that we have the most up-to-date and best rankings that you can bring to your draft. Our draft kit pro is only $55, includes Silva's Top 150 and Tears, all our ETR rankings, my draft strategy, my player-by-player notes, Thormin's rankings in season, tons, tons more. And if you're really serious about the fantasy football, you need the bundle. Combines draft kit pro without our in-season product, AKR projections, Silva's matchups, Thor and offensive line, defensive line matchup, tons of premium shows, including Man vs. Machine in season, tons more details on both of those products, draft kit pro and the bundle are available at establishedarun.com. All right. Let's get into it here. I want to start by talking about some of the early rounds stuff around running back. So clearly, the NFL has changed. Passing rate is down. Passing yards are down. Yards per target is down. At the same time, starting running backs have sustained health at a really high rate over the last two seasons, leading to running backs being, and you may combine all that and running backs have been overwhelmingly the best fantasy plays on average. Now the ADP has shifted a little bit. We now have, I expect 12 running backs to go off the board in the first 20 picks. So that kind of sets the stage here for the early rounds. I think all of us have Gibbs and Bijan. I know me and Silva both, Gibbs won, Bijan too. Dagel DC, any merit to taking wide receiver over Bijan there at the top, I think we're all in agreement that Gibbs is our number one player. Especially since we're talking about home league formats, and as we move along this episode, we'll talk about the players that we've lost confidence in that you can draft on the comeback. So Gibbs, Bijan firmly entrenched as one and two overall. - Okay, yeah, and as we talk here today, we are referring to the standard half PPR 12 team redraft formats that I know is the most common format out there for people. I think the question that people have, Silva, is Gibbs, Bijan, Chase, Puka, everybody feels good about. When they get to pick five, people can make a case. Well, Jackson Smith and Jigba lost Kling Kubiak. Should we need running back? Should we be looking at a Christian McCaffrey or Jonathan Taylor at pick five? Or some people have a Monroe over JSN straight up. So anyway, Silva, when it gets to you at pick five, what's on your mind? Especially when it comes to the running back position. It's wide receiver, it's a man raw for me as well. I actually have Puka down here as well, just due to the, at least mild suspension risk that Adam Schaefter has brought about. But I mean, the running backs here that you're looking at right in this range would be Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, maybe James Cook, Kenneth Walker for me. The thing with Christian McCaffrey is that he's 30 years old, he's coming off a career high and carries and touches, he's already experienced some tightness in training camp. We don't even know if that's real. There have been some rumors that that might be contract related. I'm not worried about the injury. I am a little bit worried that he, you know, he continues to get more advanced in age and all this, all this wear on his tires at the NFL. He said a ton of touches at the NFL level. Yet a ton of touches at the college level as well. And then Jonathan Taylor, we saw how awesome he could be when that offense was humming last year and weeks one through a little bit after mid season. The Colts had the best offense statistically in the NFL. And Jonathan Taylor was absolutely killing it. Now Daniel Jones coming off of the torn Achilles, you know, he had the broken leg last year. Is that going to affect the overall output of the offense? I think that those guys McCaffrey and Taylor at the top of this tier be long behind Aman Ra, Jackson Smith and Jayba and Puka. Yeah, and that's how silver has it in his top 150. I'm more open to running back here at pick five if you wanted to, Dagle, Christian McCaffrey or JT. I'll get to my takes on them there in a second, but Dagle, I assume you have the top four. The way I described earlier, what do you think about pick five running back versus wide receiver? It's to your point as you mentioned at the top of the show because of the health of running backs the last two years. The top 12 finishers and points per game have all come within the first three rounds besides Javante Williams, who was an eighth round pick last year. Thus ADP has been accurate. So I want to insulate these top 12 guys and feel confident in drafting them on a wide open board from 105 on. I have the same concerns that Silva does with Christian McCaffrey coming off the 10th most touches of the 21st century. And there has been 24 situations of a running back reaching 370 touches since to Marco Marie did so in 2014. And only four times, a 16 and a half percent outcome did that player improve their points for game, the following year. McCaffrey's also had an efficiency dip quietly for three consecutive seasons. So I am Marie, but I also understand the overall structure of drafting. So whoever you want to jam up here, McCaffrey included, please feel free to do so since when we're looking one, two steps ahead, I don't want to get too ahead here 'cause we will talk about these individual players in the second round. We are going to discuss a massive tear drop off after Derek can reindivine HN who may be come back to that 5th, 6th spot in the second round. So I just want to be ahead of running back in this spot. - Yeah, okay, and agreed. I think I just want to double quick on Christian McCaffrey here for a second. The point that Dago brought up that is the biggest concern to me is not how many touches he's had, not that he's likely to get hurt. It's that the efficiency has been in decline. And at some point, it's going to get to a point where if you're averaging 3.8 yards per carry, it's hard to be the number one player in fantasy. Now you can make up for that by catching 90 balls, 100 balls in a season like Christian McCaffrey does. So I think that despite the efficiency concerns, if Christian McCaffrey plays 16, 17 games, there is very few guys going here that I'm more confident will finish among the top three fantasy players this season. And that's why I am willing to take Christian McCaffrey at pick five or pick six. Is he a favorite to get hurt? Yes, but I would consider every running back that we project for 300 plus touches this season a favorite to get hurt. The outlier, the unexpected, the surprise is sustaining health the previous year. And that's why you see all these guys who have tons of touches the year before. That's the surprise, that's the outlier. That's why they get hurt the next year because that's just the standard and the expectation. So I think that all these guys who are we project for 300, 350 touches are favorites to get hurt. I think McCaffrey is so confident he will finish among the top three fantasy players of his stays healthy. And so I still need to take him there at five. I wanted to ask about Jonathan Taylor again here, Evan. I know you mentioned my take on JT is the past game volume was so much better last year called 46 passes. They do not have much behind them. I think Seth McGowan's gonna end up winning the back up job. I mean, they're gonna be hard pressed to take JT off the field including in passing situations. So I feel really good about that. The bigger concern I have on JT and the reason I'd have CMC just a hair ahead of JT is just he's dependent on the Colts winning. Like, it does not go well for JT when they fall behind in games. That's like the only hole that I can really poke in him. And I would be fine taking him at six overall or seven overall. So Evan has JT here at eight overall. Evan any final thoughts here on JT before he move on? - Well, if we were just to compare Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor entering this season and just talk about who could maybe have a better season than they did last year. I think that Jonathan Taylor could maybe have a better season than he did last year. Although it's not, you know, maybe the floor is in this high last year just because of the overall the returning pieces. on offense, specifically at quarterback. It's not gonna get better for Christian McCaffrey than what happened last year because of how much usage he was able to handle and how healthy that he stayed. But with Jonathan Taylor, there are situations where he can be better. The cults return one of the better offensive lines in the league, way better offensive line in San Francisco, by the way. If Daniel Jones does return to a high level play as a passer, he's not moving as much. In the pocket, more dumbtons. I think Jonathan Taylor could catch more passes this year than he did last season. Also, he's considerably younger than Christian McCaffrey. So if we were just to compare those two and talk about who's gonna have a better season, I think the Taylor actually maybe has the higher ceiling, at least relative to what they did last season. I don't think McCaffrey's gonna, McCaffrey's really gonna struggle what he did to repeat what he did last season. - Yeah, and clearly, you know, McCaffrey's better in full PPR than half PPR. I think that should go without saying. Okay, Daniel, I want to talk about some of these homelieg ADP outliers. People know I've been doing a ton of the bestball stuff. There is some pretty big discrepancies here, even at the top between homelieg ADP and bestball. The one that I want to start with is Derek Henry, who is going 10th overall in homelieg ADP. We're actually for the first time, like ahead of the bestball market in on the big dog, Derek Henry, they go, "What do you think about him at 10th overall?" - We're just expecting an entirely different offense under Declan Doyle, and I think the emergence of both Matthew Hibner and Jacobi Lane the preseason, even highlights that the Ravens are going to be something different than they've ever been with Lamar Jackson, which we're naturally then hoping leads to more light boxes, and just an easier time in life for Derek Henry. So again, I believe he is in this next tier of running backs, but also this next tier of running backs is very large. So you can nitpick, you can choose between all of them. Derek Henry, I believe, is completely fine. - Derek Henry will be 33 years old in January. At some point, he's not going to be able to do this. I have not seen any signs that this will be the year that he's not able to do this, you know? So, especially in half PPR formats, just feels really safe that he's going to be among the league leaders in touchdowns here. Another outlier kind of at ADP at the top here, Evan is Chase Brown. Chase Brown, Home League, ADP is 22 overall. Silver is up at 12 overall. Now there's different ADP sources here. Some of them have Chase Brown going a little bit higher. We talked about this a little bit on the news show, Evan, but is Chase Brown a target for you in this kind of setup in round two? - Absolutely, I mean, the Bengals are, so I think that there is, the general consensus that the Bengals are going to be at least a little bit better on defense this year. Certainly more competent, I think. We have Brandon Thorn ranking, the Bengals offensive line, very much middle of the pack, and also highlighting the fact that they might have depth on the offensive line, the potential to withstand some injuries up front. Those are not characteristics that we've talked about regarding the Bengals offensive line in the years. We had the fact that T Higgins and Jamar Chase are obviously at the top of the passing game, totem pole in Cincinnati. And there's just not a whole lot else. The Bengals have done very little to address their third receiver, very little to address their tight end position. That almost makes Chase Brown the de facto third receiver for the Bengals. He had 69 receptions last season. And we saw that he was really disappointing early in the season, based almost entirely on the poor quarterback play with Jake Browning under center. The Bengals finally moved away from that. They brought in Joe Flacco and Chase Brown are immediately resumed killing. And obviously he's going to crush with Joe Burrow back healthy. I mean, he's a really, really easy click. I think he absolutely belongs at that one-two turn and no later. Yeah. The big thing for me on Chase Brown is Joe Burrow is such a good thrower of the football to the running back position. And so, you know, he runs going to play. It's going to be annoying. But Chase Brown is going to be a pass catcher and a touchdown scorer here. For this team, I agree. I like him there. As well, the genty conversation, Dagle is one that is tough at the top. He goes around the one-two turn in basketball. I've seen him much later in Home League ADP. Perhaps people are a bit spooked off of last year. Dagle, where does genty fit into your running back strategy here in the early rounds? I also like him around Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown, which, as you mentioned, ADP doesn't reflect. But we do have some natural regression and just play calling Denver says coming for the Raiders. Clint Kubiak now, who just steered Sam Darnold into career high and yards per tent. The Raiders go out and get 25-year-old Tyler Linderbaum to start at center, who is PFF's fourth highest and graded run blocking center just last year. And last season, the Raiders quietly scored 80% of their touchdowns through the air. We've seen that happen 12 times only in the last decade. None of those 12 teams were able to replicate that mark the following season. So that led me down a rabbit hole to think, well, maybe we've had some breakout running backs from those teams that actually did score a lot of passing touchdowns the year prior. And there was a lot of meandering in the results. Just a lot of RB 16s who finishes RB 24 and vice versa, which doesn't mean anything at all. But the hits were actually massive, including Orleans Darkwaw, who had undrafted and finished football in 2017. He finishes the RB 40 in points per game. And James Robinson, we all remember in 2020, who finishes the RB 7 in points per game. So I just think that's a situation for Ash and Gentie to capitalize on. And ADP doesn't reflect that as a mid-early second-round pick. When his range of outcomes, includes outscoring Christian McCaffrey. - Yeah. - Orleans Darkwaw. Now, there is a hell of a pull. I mean-- - He brought me up the show. This is how you get-- - I had forgotten that name. A hundred percent a race from my mind. - Okay, I'm fine with Gentie too. There are running backs. I prefer ahead of them. And I think Silva does as well. The first one up here, which I don't know if it's an IKB or not, but I prefer Kenneth Walker. I just did the-- explaining the default rankings for ESPN. And ESPN's default rank on Kenneth Walker is 21st overall. So I'm not saying you have to reach up into the round one or end of round one to get him. But I think Silva and I are in the same page that I would take Kenneth Walker over Ash and Gentie now if Force just straight up ADP aside, do you agree with that? Have any more thoughts on Kenneth Walker? - I would take Kenneth Walker over Ash and Gentie beyond any shadow of a doubt. And I think that Kenneth Walker actually really belongs in that tier along with McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor who we already discussed. Go ahead. - For the first time that she's finally have a running back that can answer whenever teams instead drop back to defend Patrick Mahomes. Like Isaiah Pacheco last year faced the league's lowest rate of stacked boxes and yet his longest run was 16 yards. Like now we have freaking Kenneth Walker whenever teams want to defend solely Patrick Mahomes. It's just a match made in heaven. And I know a lot of people zoom out and just say, well, Kenneth Walker couldn't play on passing down the Seattle, that's the concern. But you know the bets for season long whenever you only have to beat 9/11 of your friends. Like and Kenneth Walker is a bet you make in this range. So many explosive run play opportunities are coming for Kenneth Walker. And what is the strength of Kenneth Walker's game? Explosive runs. Add to that the fact that we have the cheese with the top 10 offensive line this year. And I mean, it's exactly what's a match made in heaven. - Yeah. Just because Kenneth Walker might not play on third and 10 does not mean that he can't catch 50 balls this season. We have seen Andy Reid, Eric B. Enemy, scheme tons of screens to guys on early downs, check downs, et cetera, as they played safety's deep. So I think 300 plus touches is a borderline lock for Kenneth Walker here in one of the best setups that he could have. And all the run game stats from the chiefs are so broken because their running backs have been the corpse of Kareem Hunt. And I say a patch echo who like is barely an NFL player. So yes, that's like my biggest IKB there in round one is Kenneth Walker over a bunch of those guys at the back there, at the back of round one there. Okay. One more ADP outlier here, Dago. Devon H&N is going 13 overall, roughly on ESPN. He's listed at 10th overall in the applet. I was so happy to see that because I didn't wanna like get on the clock at pick 19 or pick 20 and be like, gosh, H&N's here. Do I really wanna bet my entire home league season in round two here on H&N in this setup? So it strikes me as a really good thing, Dago, but any more thoughts on Devon H&N and where he goes in home leagues. - Everyone knows who Devon H&N is. The second and third highest target share in the league, but we're also now adding an entirely different quarterback, play collar and really offensive system for H&N. He's the kind of player who will have usable are B1 scores this year because that explosive, but are they as consistent, even our projections have their doubts. So he's really a player where at ADP, I'm fine, taken, assuming he falls. For instance, if everyone wants to go back in the feed, we did that 12 team ETR staff mock and he felt a 208 totally acceptable there. Again, there's a tear break after H and if he goes that late. But at the first second round turn, there are just other bets. I think we all want to make. And that includes Chase Brown who's really Christian McCaffrey light when he talk about catching the ball consistently. You just mentioned Kenneth Walker, Ashton Jinti, and we haven't even touched on Sequan Barkley. So those are just bets I would rather make the net chain, but I understand when people want to take them or have to take them. Yeah. And you know, if he gets there and I'm at like pick 21, 22 and HN is there, I think it's, I wouldn't be like excited about it, but it's a really tough pass because of what Dago said about the tear drop there at running back. Go ahead, Silver. Running backs that are really reliant on catching the football, playing with quarterbacks that are run first by nature, it's swimming upstream to expect Devon HN to have to try to have the kind of receiving production with Malik Willis that he did with Tuo Tungo Viloa. Yeah. And I'd also took a special kind of play call or in Mike McDaniel and outside the box thinker to give Devon HN 300 plus touches last year. I mean, there are not many coaches in the NFL that would give a dude who is 188 pounds that much work. So we'll see if Jeff Hathley will be willing to do that, you know, that's TBD. But I certainly think that Devon HN is at a risk of a dramatic reduction in receptions this year because of the nature of the quarterback. Yeah. Well, I mean, this Boomer Hathley's already talking about how many times we run the ball in a game. I mean, buddy, you do not have the roster to get off 40 runs in a game. Of course, they're going to try that. They're going to be down 28 to 6. And then it's like, well, now what, what do we do? And it's like, it's just hard to see it going well. That's another thing is that truly, I mean, the Dolphin's coaching staff and with Bobby Slowick at Offensive Court, I mean, we've seen his act before. These guys might just be Dolts. Yeah. Yeah, it's crazy like HN's basketball ADP is closer to 19. And I hardly have any of them there, let alone at this 13 overall ADP in homelies. Evan, you mentioned Sequon Barkley. I just wanted to ask about him before he moved on here at the top, Evans at 15 overall on Sequon. I think that's roughly in line with where he goes. I've kind of gone back and forth on this one. Any thoughts for the people on Sequon, Evan? Age, massive workload. The potential rise of Tank Bigsby, who I know that you're on at them. The Eagles have a really, really talented offensive line. But man, it feels like it's hanging by a thread. Lane Johnson, you know, Landon Dickerson, I mean, these guys are, these guys are, you know, they're being held together with like masking tape. I feel like physically and the Eagles lost their offensive. They're great renowned offensive line coach, Jeff Stoutland. The age really at the end of the day for Sequon Barkley and the receptions. Again, this is a running back who is an excellent receiver, but does is not funnel the ball heavily voluminously in the passing game because of the nature of the playing style of his quarterback. And all those factors sort of have me down on Sequon Barkley relative to ADP. Yeah. It's really how much could you want to blame Petulo because I do think Sequon is a really good receiver, right? And like we've seen some of these minions that the offense that I expect, minion to put in more play action, more under center, get the ball to running back in the passing game more. That was kind of like a leap of faith. The concern for me, Diego, was just the efficiency on Barkley last year. You can blame your offensive line, you can blame it on Petulo. The bottom line is 4.1 yards per carry in a season for Sequon Barkley and not very many explosive runs whatsoever was concerning, Diego, where you are on Sequon. It does go back to Petulo in the offensive line. I think the best reference point is that Sequon led the league and yards before contact per carry in 2024. Last year Lane Johnson was banged up and the Eagles fell all the way to 23rd and that stat, which is an offensive line stat. And for me, I just look and see a moving stock price that I want to buy low on, considering everyone previously, just last year, one of them is the overall RB1. And now here he is in the second round after finishing as the RB15 and points per game. Not only that, but the Eagles dropped back from under center with Petulo last year at the league's third lowest rate. Their first play out of camp was 12 personnel under center tossed his way to Sequon Barkley. I think we're going to get just an entirely different offense than we've ever seen from the Eagles and Jalen Hertz and I'm really excited about it. So Sequon Barkley is a player that I'm very high on at that first second round turn. But again, I speak in tears, so if someone wants Chase Brown or that over him, I completely get it. Yeah. Very close between those guys at the top agreed. Yeah, I certainly don't have a Sequon fade on. I'm just going to like in line with market. I think he goes roughly in the right spot does Sequon. Okay, Dagle, I think for a lot of people, it's somewhat easy in round two. If you get a later half pick, right? You have that huge tier of running back. We're likely taking one of those whoever our favorite is Walker or Chase Brown or Barkley or Gentier or Henry or whatever you want to do. The tougher spot, I think, Dagle is if you get the first overall pick or the second overall pick or the third overall pick and all of these running backs are gone when it gets back to you. Are you willing to pull up a Breeze Hall or Kyron Williams or Jeremiah Love to the back half year around two say pick 24, 23, 22, 21? Are you willing to bring those guys up there, Dagle, Breeze, Kyron, Jeremiah Love? I have not been to this point personally, but there are some exceptions. Very quickly, I mentioned the ADP for the top 12 guys being accurate due to health. So we're the hits later on have come to replace this next group of running backs has been this situation entirely. The RB 13 through 24 on points per game. So a guy you start every single week is your RB two. The past two years has averaged a sixth round ADP. So we are looking at these individuals and saying, well, who were the ones that naturally then would break out and be worth taking since they've historically been misses? And that previously for me was Jeremiah Love and Breeze Hall. The issue now is that the receivers are going the opposite way and that we're as Hall and Love are now battling ankle injuries from the preseason. We have risers, for instance, like Chris Olave, who is now getting a better situation with Jordan Tyson missing six to eight weeks. So it's kind of gone opposite for me in that I'm still targeting wide receivers, Brock Bowers heavily in this range. And this is a, this is a situation where I'm avoiding the running backs here. And if I don't, then it's those archetype of receiving backs. I'm targeting. Yeah. You know, like the historical stuff is tough for me just because I think like the way that Breeze Hall and Jeremiah Love score points is just like they can actually finish as a top five fantasy running back because they're so explosive catching the football and they can make such huge plays. It's like, it's the guys that were going in round two, round three historically that don't have that profile that are more just like grinder types. Those guys don't really go round two or round three anymore. So I'm open to it. Evan has Breeze Hall 24 overall, Jeremiah Love 27 overall and Evan actually has Javante Williams. I actually didn't cross my mind for this spot. But Evan does have Javante Williams here at 23 overall. So Evan, back end of round two. What do you think about these guys here, Breeze, Jeremiah Love and you have Javante above them also? Yeah, I mean, the reason that I have Javante slightly above Breeze Hall and Jeremiah Love as well. Number one, Javante Williams is healthy. But number two, because of the offensive environment, I think that when you get into like, we're talking about like secondary tears behind the truly elite talents at running back, I think you could say Jeremiah Love is an elite talent, but isn't played in the NFL yet either. You know, let's let's bank on the offensive environment as the Cowboys going to score way more touchdown. The Cowboys could score as many touchdowns as the Cardinals and the Jets combined. I mean, literally this season, you know, much better offensive line situation. Javante Williams is not as talented. I don't think one for one as either Breeze Hall or Jeremiah Love, but the offensive environment is just so, so, so much better. And that's what I'm banking on here between these guys. Breeze Hall, I'm not as worried about his injury right now. I know this is not really an injury analysis show, but I'm not worried about him. It's like what a one and a half week to two week groin injury and we're doing this three plus weeks away from week one. Not worry about Jeremiah Love. I'm kind of worried about that with the high ankle sprain. There's been no commitment that he's going to be ready for week one. And those are injuries that are very prone to aggravation and also to just sapping the effectiveness of a guy who may struggle to find alleys in the running game because of the offensive offensive line situation in front of them that also deteriorated when the The colonel's lost their projected starting right guard number one. 34 overall pick in the draft, Chase Passantes. - Yeah, agree on the injury stuff. Breeze Hall sounds like it's gonna be back in a couple of weeks, maybe two to three weeks from this growing thing. Clicking a rookie running back with a high ankle sprain in round two is gonna be a tough click for me. And that sucks 'cause I really like Jeremy I love. I thought he was probably a good deal, but it's really gonna depend on ADP. Like would I take Jeremy I love in the back half of round three, definitely. Like I think you're accounting for enough risk there. So if he slips to 30, 34, but right now, you know, I'm still seeing Jeremy I love ADP up here round 27 overall. The guy in this tier day, go, and I know he's not in this tier for Silva, but the guy in this tier ADP-wise is Kyron Williams that we did not hit on. The Rams are expected to be, I mean, everybody had not just me, but I think they're the most talented team in the league on paper. They're gonna score an astronomical amount of points from a projection standpoint. When you factor all that in, it's really hard not to get there on Kyron, even if you give, like we're still giving Blake Korum, a lot of work and projections. And Kyron still comes out as a reasonable pick here, round two, round three, turn, early round three. So, Dago, what do you think about Kyron here as part of a running back? Have you build at the outset? - And we know Sean McPhase backfield historically does not get targets whatsoever, basically finishing bottom two and every season since he's coached there. I am out on Kyron Williams personally at the cost. Last year before the buy, he handled 74% of the team's backfield touches. And then in 13 games post buy, dropped all the way down to 60% because Blake Korum is a very good player who finished second only to Devon H-Anne and their rate of 10-yard carries. It's similar to my argument against Javonte Williams too, Sylvan, I've talked about this off the recording as well to where we just differ on it. Last year, 59 running backs ran 100 routes. Javonte Williams finished 57th and Yars Per Outrun among them. I agree both the Williams, the Williams tier. This is when I usually check out mentally in the drafts. They have high floors, but I don't think I'm chasing higher floors at these cost when you don't carry receiving profile with you personally. So, Kyron and Javonte are two guys. I'm really underweight on. - Well, that was kind of my point about are you capable of finishing as a top five running back? Can I take you in round two or in round three if you're not going to catch a ton of passes? You're not that good in the receiving game and you're not going to break really long runs. That's why I thought Jeremiah Loves profile, Breeze Hall's profile was better for taking in this range here. - So, I think that Javonte Williams can finish as a top five running back because of the touchdown upside. And also, he's not a good receiver. I mean, as you mentioned, but Javonte Williams has caught a lot of passes in the NFL. He's played five seasons in the NFL. He had a 43 catch season, 47 catch season, 52. Last year, only 35. But the Cowboys did nothing to upgrade the running back position in the off season. They didn't draft the running back and they also did not sign one in free agency. I know we've heard some buzz on Jaden Blue and I think he's a very intriguing late round pick this year. You know, absolutely like I draft Jaden Blue. But not because I think that he's necessarily a threat to cut heavily into Javonte Williams work. The touchdown upside with Javonte Williams, you know, I think he's got a chance to compete for the league lead in rushing TDs. You know, in a very friendly offensive environment behind a really good offensive line, the Cowboys gave him a bunch of money. That was the second move, the second transaction of the Cowboys off season was to lock up Javonte Williams. That's what I'm banking on. - The point that no one is making also. So I'm gonna sell your point on Javonte Williams too. Who again, I don't personally take but also high floor. Don't think he's a terrible pick. Is that the Cowboys defense is going to be better. That is the one point everyone keeps saying. So we're going to get different game scripts. Will they run their offence through their elite passing talent most likely? But also just adding Caleb Downs and key pieces in free agency, bringing over an intuitive play call or like Christian Parker to replace Eber Fluce. Like it's going to be league average if not slightly better, which is an entirely different case than last year. So there will be great situation for Javonte Williams. Who if he outscores DeBon A. Chan or Derek Henry even, I don't think it'd be shocking. - Okay. We're doing a draft strategy show later this week. I don't want to get into strategy here really, but running back, running back starts, even running back, running back, running back starts are certainly viable depending on where you pick and how the ADP goes. But again, stay tuned for the draft strategy show for more on that. I want to go the middle round of running backs now here. And you know, people who have been in the fantasy streets for a while understand this whole concept of the dead zone at running back. And we've done a bunch of articles and content and shows over the last few years under kind of the same theory, which is is there even a dead zone anymore because fantasy drafters have gotten so much sharper. And by the way, I define a dead zone running back as a profile that isn't exciting. Not a pass catcher, not an explosive runner, not a really talented guy. But he's just, he's going to get all the volume. So he ends up in the dead zone. And you know, like poster example of that is like what happened with Alexander Madison or Mike Davis or guys that just like, we're not good at football for any reason, but we're going between rounds three and round six because we projected them. There was no one else to give touches to, basically the bottom line. The only guy in here, Dago, in these that goes in these middle rounds that actually think fits the bill. And he doesn't really fully fit the bill as a guy know your own. That's why I want to bring it up. And that's David Montgomery because I don't see David Montgomery as an explosive player. I think he's actually a decent pass catcher. And that's why maybe he doesn't even fit here as a dead zone back. But the reason people are excited about David Montgomery is not because the offensive line, not because the offense, not because he's an explosive. It's literally because he's going to get 350 touches. And I actually don't disagree. He probably will get 300 to 350 touches. That's the only argument that I can make really for a dead zone back through here, Dago. So do you think he is? And there's anyone else in the mid range there that you think might be a dead zone candidate? - So unfortunately, the risers in this tier that I thought we had in Cam Skataboo who was ninth in target share in 12th and Yard's Per Outrun until he was injured last year. We lost, in my opinion, with the nausea hair as signing and just the overall vibes coming out of preseason. Also, Quinshaw and Jutkins, I still think as a fine pick was targeting on 23% of his routes when he was activated in a week two last year. But we can also poke holes there giving the injuries coming back from. And the last four players to return from that Febila fracture, they averaged six and a half fewer points for game the following year as less explosive, less efficient players. So that's how you nitpick the potential risers. So there are a few guys that stand out. Dave Montgomery is certainly one of them, especially when he plays those slowest Bill's linebackers in week one. But beyond that, quietly he was targeting on a higher rate of his routes than the guys that I've heard argued for in the tier before. Cavern Williams, Javonte Williams. To me, Dave Montgomery is the same bit as Javonte Williams, just a couple rounds later. And so that's why I like these kinds of players who I think think can emerge a couple rounds ahead and be hits at their ADP. - Yeah, I mean, the offensive environment is gonna be different and the offensive line play is gonna be different for Dave Montgomery versus Javonte. But Evan, do you have a Dave and Montgomery take here for the people? - I think you guys have summed it up pretty good. I just wanted to pause for a second, take a time to acknowledge the sweet soliloquies coming from John Daigle on today's show who, I mean, you must think that I must have cleaned up on man versus a machine with all the anti-Cavern Williams and anti-cam scottaboo stuff. I want to appreciate, Daigle, do you want to be friends? Do you want to come live with me for a little while? - I don't think I'm over the last time we did that yet. I still, I'm still scarred mentally. - Okay, this range, and this is why I argued, and Daigle's point is well taken. If you like these guys through here, you can get them a couple rounds later. The reason I argued more for running back heavy starts is 'cause I don't feel great, Evan, about where these guys go. Juggins goes 39 on ESPN. Cam scottaboo goes 40. Baschel Tutten goes 41. That is ahead of flowers. Ivan T. Higgins, Lad McConkey, Jamo Waddle, Birdon. So for me, like, I want to be taking wider seaver through that range. Guy that Daigle just mentioned, we haven't spent a lot of time on Evan's Quinchon Juggins. Quinchon Juggins coming off of a severe injury. Team is expected to be bad, and like the biggest argument against Juggins is a two down running back on a bad team. Monkin seems to be pretty excited about him. Though, have any thoughts on Juggins here in the mid range? Yeah, I think he's good. I think that Quinchon Juggins is a dead zone back, though, to me. I mean, maybe a pretty classic example of one. And I do think that he's good. I really liked what he showed as a rookie in a really bad situation last year. But, you know, some of the Twitter doctors, you know, and you could take them or leave them. Some of the Twitter docs say that the injury that he suffered was actually worse that the one that still has us worried about CAMS Academy. They were sort of similar in nature. But some people say that the Quinchon Juggins injury was worse. Now, we haven't heard anything negative about Quinchon Juggins health through training camp. So I feel okay about his health right now. But man, this is another really, really rough situation with a revolving door at quarterbacks, you know, a question. shinable at best offensive line, a team that is not built to score very much, and a new coach. I mean, look, we all love Todd Monkin. We love Todd Monkin. But even, you know, can Todd Monkin even do anything with the pieces that the Browns have on offense? It's just, it's a really, really tough sell. You know, add to that the fact that Quinchon Judkins has a very limited receiving background. And it's not a fun click whatsoever. Quinchon Judkins in 2026. Yeah. I mean, he goes 45th overall in the homely gate EP that we're pulling in. I haven't met 60. Yeah. ETR ranks are at 56 here on Mr. Judkins. I wanted to hit on the Tutan stuff through this range, Dagle, because I was shocked. Like, when we first started this a few months ago, I was like, man, Tutan's going to go in the fifth round in Best Ball for sure. Like, he has the exact profile. But in homelys, I thought that maybe we could sneak Tutan past some people and get him in round seven or around eight. The normies, not even people that listen to the show, nobody not on fantasy Twitter. I'm saying like normal homelys people are in on Tutan. He is still going in the 50s in homely gate EP, which surprises me a little bit. I struggle with this with the Tutan stuff, Dagle, where you at in homelys on Tutan. At Best Ball, it's easier to nitpick and say Chris Rodriguez will be a hamper to his ceiling, but still in this range against again 9 or 11 other of our friends. I think it's a bet I make every time and just understand the process even if it misses. It's a lot like, honestly, the Kenneth Walker argument in the second round where I'm closing my eyes and saying if this leads to a bigger role than this profile, the most athletic running back to ever test at the convime until Mike Washington did so earlier this year, can win. The Jaguars last year had a terrible offensive line. I'm not sure it's gotten much better, but they had a terrible offensive line finished 25th in yards before contact per carry. Individually, though, Tutan still finished sixth and success rate and converted four of his six carries into touchdowns inside the five yard line. He showed that they can trust him on short yards down as well. So all we needed is that additional receiving role, which he didn't really even have an opportunity for last year. And suddenly, this is a player who hits at this ADP. So I still love Tutan at his cost. Yeah. Gosh, I wish I wish he was cheaper, man, because like we we think he's good. Then a foul made him a day three pick. He wasn't like, I thought he had a good. He didn't even hit 40 400 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. Yeah. I mean, they were, you know what? It's a good thing that we have differing opinions on guys like this. Because I mean, there is a there's a crazy group of people online, terminally online, who love Bayshal Tutan. I mean, and I experienced this in March when, I don't know, one of our producers clipped me saying that I thought that Chris Rodriguez was going to be the the week one lead back over Bayshal Tutan. No, my God, just people roaring online on social media at me. And actually, that's starting to look kind of good again, by the way. And people were like, oh, this is going to be on fantasy receipts that, you know, that I had Chris Rodriguez, maybe as the jaguars week one lead running back. It hasn't been the greatest camp for Bayshal Tutan either. First of all, I have him dead in line with ADP right now in the mid 50s. And I never get him because every because in every single draft, I think of drafts and like once and like 50 drafts. It's because there's some crazy person who's willing to take him in the 40s, like be on any shadow of a doubt. Bayshal Tutan in the 40s. And I just, I can't do it. Also, it hasn't been a clean training camp for him. There were some comments recently from Liam Cohen being like, and Liam Cohen had talked him up like crazy, Bayshal Tutan throughout the spring. And at the start of training camp, and recently Liam Cohen was like, we kind of want to see him take another step. And that's not the kind of rhetoric that you want to hear coming from a coach, especially when it's when it coincides with the time which Chris Rodriguez is healthy and getting a ton of first team reps. And you know, even LeQuint Allen, I know is banged up right now, but he was drawing some first team reps as well early on. I just, I think at the end of the day, this is going to be a three-man committee. And it's going to be very frustrating trying to pull fantasy, can any kind of consistent fantasy production out of it because they're going to play three running backs in Jacksonville. Yeah, I prefer. There's two guys in this range. I'm curious your guys takes on that. I prefer to Tutan. And they're a little bit different costs. But the Andre Swift, I prefer over Tutan. I think he is much better than Kyle Menongai. Feel really good about Ben Johnson there. And just being part of that bear's offense. And then the second one is Travis ETN. I know he got a little boost today with Alvin Camera being out for a week from the torn ACL. Again, be part of this St. Setup, which gets back Eric McCoy adds David Edwards plays a ton of games in the dome is going to play extremely fast. So in this range, like, if I miss on these running back heavy starts, ETN Swift and a little bit later, Jadarian Price, those are more targets for me, dagel, any thoughts on those guys or anyone else you want to mention in the mid range that you like. You could argue ETN should be all the way up with Javonte and Kyron, given that now 31-year-old Alvin Camera is already out for the next month and dealing with an injury. The Saints also projected with a second easiest schedule in the entire league. So I like ETN a whole lot. I didn't even know he was in this range of so that's my pick. That's my favorite among all these guys. Also then, are we considering Ramondri and Jonathan Brooks in this tier? Are we going down later for the face? On the 80 feet. Yeah, I think that's a little bit later into the, you can go guys in the 70s. So yeah, I think we that's a little bit later. I mean, Travis ETN is probably going to go in round four somewhere. But I think Tutan is going to go in round five, you know, and at cost, I'd much rather have ETN in round four than Tutan in round five personally. And then Jadarian Price is just a player I'm out on. If everyone goes back and listens to the draft show, we already had this discussion. We're still put on his Cloverleaf glasses and got very upset at me. But I'm just seeing what the Seahawks are saying. Like I understand, no, I don't understand why they drafted him actually. 295 college touches on his resume. So now we're pushing this guy up like Mike Davis, who has never handled a large workload. And suddenly we're saying he's going to get a large workload just because Zach Sharbney is injured and the team drafted him first overall. But even on that, that light workload fumbled four times, only 15 career receptions. And then also he, whereas if everyone argues, Jeremiah Love got targets because he played a lot. Jeremiah Love led this class and being targeted on his routes. His rate of targets on his routes. Jadarian Price was second lowest in this class. So even when he played on a per-route basis, he could not earn targets. So I'm going to push back. I'm going to hero call the Seahawks on Jadarian Price. We like my bottom pair is going to beat you. That's fair. He also is going to go in round six or like the very end of round five, round six. And so you're not paying a huge cost for him there. And I agree with you. He's not going to play on the passing hours. They're going to have Halani on the passing downs to beginning. And once Sharbney gets healthy, they're going to have Sharbney on the passing downs. What you're betting on is that price is such a good runner that when Sharbney comes back, price still ceases and controls that. And this is one of the most run heavy teams in the entire league. And the last thing you're betting on, Degel, that you didn't mention, you have not watched hard knocks. If you watched hard knock, it is impossible not to get the full 3.9 for Jadarian price. They're loving him. But yeah, Silva, go ahead on Jadarian price. Yeah. I mean, you know, Degel can sit here and rally off as many statistics as he wants, you know, about Jadarian price. But at the end of the day, how many super, how many Lombardi trophies do you have, Degel? Because the Lombardi trophy winning Seattle Seahawks is drafted Jadarian price in the first round. I'm going to go with them here. Okay. But also with Jadarian price from a fantasy standpoint, it's not that fun. I mean, I actually think that Jadarian price is good. Degel builds a case against him being very good. I think that Jadarian price is good. And it's still going to be difficult for him to really help us in fantasy because of the fact that it's going to be Holanian passing situations initially. And it sounds like Sharbney could return. And that the Seahawks love Zach Sharbney. Even if he's out there averaging 3.6 yards of carry, they don't care. They feel confident with them. They believe that he's the best pass-protecting running back in the league. They like him at the goal line. Jadarian price can have a really, really good rookie season and still not really moved the needle in fantasy. Be like a 12 points per game kind of guy. He doesn't have very much upside because of the situation around him. Whether or not, you think he's good. I mean, the biggest reason that I don't have a ton of Jadarian price right now is because I'm afraid of the peptides. The reports around Sharbney are out of control, out of control. Like they're saying that he could be back September, October, which is mind-blowing to me. But yeah, I don't want like in this new age of modern medicine, I don't want to assume that Sharbney is not going to be back until December anymore. You know, I just don't think we can do that. Okay, three more guys in this range. I want to touch on quickly. The Skatibu stuff will talk more next week on the news and the wake of the Naji Harris signing. A dagel already gave his take. My take is that like the giants have been linked to running backs in free agency, in the draft. And now throughout this process with dusty veterans here in the summer, it just makes me feel like they do not feel that great about Kim Skatibu as their feature workhorse back. And so, as much as I think Kim Skatibu is an awesome profile for fantasy. Great goal line runner. Really good pass catcher. I think we have to dock him and we did dock him in the ranking. So civil, we'll talk more about this on news next week, but any initial thoughts on the scataboo thing in the wake of Naji Harris. You know, I've been down on cam scataboo since the outset. So to me, like all this kind of stuff is just confirmation bias, you know, the fact that he's coming off a really, really rough injury. And I mean, Sam brought in our slack. They was like, there's also a chance that cam scataboo just might be mentally insane. I mean, you know, like, I mean, he is a crazy guy. That's kind of what what kind of makes him great too. You know, at least it was a great college player and he had a really nice rookie season, but he's coming off this this really, really bad injury. Tyrone Tracy was getting a ton of first team reps at the expense of cam scataboo. You have a changing offensive situation. You have an entirely new coaching staff now coordinated offensively by Matt Nagy, who I don't think that any of us trust. And now they bring in Naji Harris, who really, from a skill set standpoint, overlaps with cam scataboo. They're both four six guys. They're both coming off bad injuries. And they're both guys who are good, close in in scoring position, and also are good in past protection and good in the passing game. So yeah, it's it's not a comfortable situation. What's so ever for cam scataboo? I I have him at 62 right now. Yeah. And I have not even moved him down. Yes. And I think I'm going to have to move him down after the Naji signing because it's just I don't trust him. I don't trust the offense as a whole either. I think it's telling that Silvan, I came to the same conclusion, despite coming into the argument on different sides of it. Since I have lost confidence along the way. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, and scataboo is still ADP in home league. We're pulling in as around 37. I don't think that's going to be accurate by the time we draft in a couple of weeks here. But ETR ranks are down at 50 overall on scataboo. And it's possible we get lower if we hear more good, if we hear good things about Naji here. The other two guys in this range, I wanted to touch on quickly. Dagle. Bucky Irving is one who like when he was going in round three and round four, I thought was one of the worst picks on the board. Now Bucky Irving, we're getting home league ADP here closer to 48 49 overall. Still kind of a toughish click for me there. I thought in round six more. He was someone I was interested in, but Dagle and he thoughts on Bucky and the ambiguous box backfield. Not a player. I would be high on even at this price of zero carries inside the five. Then they returned Sean Tucker who led the team in that range as a as a touchdown or bust guy brought in Rashad White who can't handle load. Oh, I'm sorry. Brought in a thing will who can't handle load, but as a carbon copy of Rashad White and definitely going to play and the passing game. And perhaps it was because Bucky Irving then returned injured in a week 13, but from that point forward, everything just plummeted 36% route share, 3.4 yards per carry, not explosives at all. So just a player, I'm worried about in season long. Whereas, you know, best ball you can take on that floor. I question his ceiling in a committee. Yeah. Um, I agree wholeheartedly with Dagle here. On man versus machine, I thought that Leonie actually did present a decent argument for Bucky Irving. I still disagree with them, but I thought that he made a pretty good argument. I think that Levitan, well, of course, Levitan awarded him the win on Bucky Irving. But he pointed to the return of the Bucks offensive line. The Bucky Irving is a fairly offensive line dependent running back relative to other running backs. Um, and the Bucks their offensive line just collapsed last year. And now Brandon Thorn has him up at number three overall. Um, due to the healthy return of Tristan Worives, the healthy return of Casey Malk. Um, and so that gives me at least a little bit of optimism to where if Bucky Irving falls past his ADP, I'd be willing to maybe at least consider him. But ultimately, I, I, I'm on the side of Dagle that he's not a priority draft pick for me this year. Yeah, I agree. And close it around six, you know, it would be better. But I think he's going to go more early round five here, which is a little bit steep for me. I'd rather go wide receiver there personally. Last one in this range, Silva is Travion Henderson. I mean, I, this is another guy similar to Tutton, who I thought will be going much later this year in homelies. I'm seeing homelogue ADP on Travion Henderson around 51, 52 overall. So, you know, we're kind of in line with rank there. You can see how it goes really well when Ramanja was out last year. Travion was awesome. Silva, what do you think about Travion here around 52 overall? What did you say 52 overall? Yeah. Yeah, that's literally my ranking. Yeah, of Travion Henderson. And yeah, I draft him sometimes. He gets to me and I take him right in that range. See, like, to me, it's not that similar to Tutton, because Tutton was a fourth round pick, who in his rookie season, he didn't even hit 400 yards from Scrimmage, whereas Travion Henderson out Ramanja missed some time, which obviously helped here. But Travion Henderson had over a thousand yards from Scrimmage and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. If you were to pop them in an algorithm and be like, oh, you know, high second round pick in the NFL, who had, you know, 1100 yards from Scrimmage and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, Travion Henderson is like going to pop out as like, you know, a future Hall of Famer. I mean, these are really, really good, you know, statistical indicators for Travion Henderson. And I know, like, all the rhetoric has been, hey, Ramanja is returning as the starter. They still trust him in past protection more. Henderson is really, really talented, though. And he's a player that I'm willing to bet on his talent. A situation is pretty good, you know, other than having Ramanja there, but I mean, the offense, the offensive line, you know, the quarterback, they're getting bit Josh McDaniel's just trustworthy, Vrable. But to me, it's, there's enough upside here that I get excited when I get the opportunity to draft Travion Henderson. I don't think anyone in a normal two running back league is starting Travion Henderson in week one, but it's such a sweet setup from 106 on. If you double tap that second and third tier of running backs that we've discussed, because then if you have Travion Henderson, who also, you know, you wouldn't want any other back at the starter was injured in the entire lake. He proved that last year. It's such a sweet up sweet setup because then you lead your drafts with what only four running backs and you can stack the rest of your roster. So Henderson is certainly usable regardless of how we project them in week one or the first month. Yeah. Agreed. I like that take. We're a little bit lower in the ETR race. We're at 59 overall in ETR ranks on Travion. You know, we have a ceiling boosted if you get to find that ceiling, you know, and that's part of the reason we have them there. On base, it's hard to see it on Travion at 52 overall, but yeah, the ceiling outcomes are really awesome there for Travion. Let's go to later rounds and we get to a lot of ambiguous backfields here, Dagle. The thing that people say about ambiguous backfields is just take the cheapest one, take the cheapest one, take the cheapest one. I don't know that that's always the best strategy. So I'm just going to run through some of these here. I'm curious to you guys take. Let's start with Washington here. Dagle, Jacori Croskey Merit, Rashad White. Some people think K-Tron Allen's going to get in the mix. Dagle, what do you think about playing commanders backfield if at all? I've been a Jacori Croskey Merit bull all off season. We talk about stock prices, and remember, he was a sixth round pick in homeligs last year. Now we can get him several rounds later. Not only that, but what he showed us still was impressive. Will the receiving resume come along? We're crossing our fingers. Probably not, but there's still a range of outcomes here after he had nine, no, seven collegiate receptions and nine NFL receptions so far. Having said that, still his explosive rate of carries, so the rate in which he's reached 10 yard runs, finished sandwich between Bijan Robinson and Derek Henry. He proved he's a very good runner, and we're expecting David Blatt on that offense to also have more multi-tightened sets helping him out and assisting Jane Daniels this year. So I just look at a second year running explosive running back and say, you're letting me have him three or four rounds later. I'm going to make that bet. We are on Croskey Merit also. ETR ranks are at 87 overall on Croskey Merit, his ADP in homeligs around 105. I don't think that he's going to have an improved pass-catching role, but when you play running back and you can have explosive runs with Jane and Daniels, we know those opportunities to make those explosive runs here for Jacori Croskey Merit. Keep him moving with ambiguous backfields here, Silva. Let's go to the Panthers where we have Jonathan Brooks versus Chuba Hubbard. I know we talked about this a little bit in the wake of Chuba's hamstring injury. It's really hard to get a feel for Jonathan Brooks ADP because it's just changing so, so fast. We're pulling in 92. Right now, I do not think that will be accurate by the time most drafts happen. I think when most drafts happen, Jonathan Brooks will likely be going in round six maybe. Silva, what do you think about Jonathan Brooks versus Chuba Hubbard at that price? I don't want anything to do with Chuba Hubbard. What's so ever this year? That was the case before the hamstring injury. Again, we can debate the talents of these running backs. And I still think that, you know, especially with guys that aren't truly, truly like super natural freaking talents, like the situation is, it can be really tough to overcome when it's really, really bad. And Carolina has a potentially really, really bad situation that without both of their starting offensive tackles, their quarterback can barely see over the offensive line. They're not gonna score a lot of points. They've got a multi-headed backfield period, even if you don't like Chuba Hubbard, he's gonna play. He's like a freaking team captain. They're gonna use him in past protection situations at least. They're gonna give him a handful of carries because he's like a leader on the panthers when he, whenever he comes back from this hamstring injury, I am in, I like, I'm definitely more optimistic than Adam is about Jonathan Brooks. And I still, you know, kind of shudder to draft him because the situation is so rough. Because again, you're having, you're, you're placing, you know, essentially a financial bet on Jonathan Brooks coming back from double ACL tears. And in a committee backfield on a, what I think is gonna be a bad team. - Yeah. - So that's not fun to me at all, Jonathan Brooks. And I do take him sometimes, but you're right. In every draft, he goes in a different spot because you just kind of never know because there are so many varying, sometimes I'll go in the fourth round. - Yeah. - You know, and I wouldn't take him until like the seventh. - Yes. - This is super priced dependent for me real quick, single super priced dependent for me. If he goes in the seventh or eighth round, I'm taking Jonathan Brooks. I just don't think that he is going to get there. Go ahead, Dago. - This is where we can't hand feed you with our rankings. You have to temperature check these two players. Like I think more so than any other backfield because there's also going to be times where the guy who has a six month old at home shows up to your draft with a magazine and he drafts Chuba Hubbard in the fourth or fifth round. Now suddenly Jonathan Brooks is a value. So you're just gonna have to watch it because it's gonna differ every single draft. - Yeah, okay. Another ambiguous-- - That's how it is these days. You see a guy show up with the fantasy magazine. Oh, there's the fish right there. - There's Chuba Hubbard. Fourth or out. - Okay, come more ambiguous backfields, Dago Denver. People are surprised that RJ Harvey is still going first here in ADP, speaking to what Silva said about plugging something into a model. I mean, RJ Harvey's rookie year from production, from a raw production standpoint. He would be exciting for year two, but there are a lot of flags here based on what Denver did in the off season and the way RJ Harvey played in the underlying stats last year. - That's why I also think it boils down to his ADP and how far he goes. He's a player where I've already done several industry mock drafts and just leagues in general, 12 team, 14 team. And I've taken RJ Harvey multiple times just because as I talked about with JJ Zacharyson on his recent late rounds perspective show, RV is a second round receiving back. So if you remove everything else, including that you have to scroll to the last page of every rushing stat to find him, you remove everything and that's the kind of player you typically want to bet on at a dipping ADP. So totally fine grabbing him, but I also still want to make sure everyone's making the bet with Jonah Coleman and this ambiguous backfield. ADP is not catching up in either best ball or homeligs. It seems like Coleman's really going under the radar despite being removed on the first drive because Sean Peyton, the offense even said, they had seen enough. Like we got to get this guy off the field because we have to keep this genie in its lamp. And also a great profile coming out too. AD catches on 90 targets over the last three years, 1.73 yards per route run, last season would take second only behind Jeremiah Love in his class. So also a player I want to bet on. And I think it's perfectly okay given their large discrepancy and ADPs that you come away with both. Yeah, I think that's fair. And like RJ Harvey is not going to play on the passing downs. I don't think they trust him there, but he's still a passing back. And that's kind of like a weird profile, but they are going to throw to him on early downs. Obviously he played well around the goal line last year. But yeah, I don't know, like at the right cost, I would take all three of these guys. And it's really just a cost thing for me. Silva made his case for JK Dobbins on the Manverse Machine show if you want to check that out. Last one, Silver Frame. He goes back there as I had with the Tennessee Titans. It's been really hard for us on the projection side to keep Tony Pollard where we want him to be. Nobody's excited about Tony Pollard. It's just hard not to give him a lot of touches here. That is the definition of Dead Zone and why I've been trying to avoid Tony Pollard where I can. We also talked about this some on the news show. Silva where the snaps were in favor of spears in that first preseason game. But then I noticed that Tony Pollard was listed with a foot injury on Monday. So I kind of want to take back what I said about some of that snap count stuff there from preseason week one. But Silva, any final thoughts here on Titans Backfield? - Just another really, really bad situation. Like this is maybe the worst situation. - Yeah. - Because we got the worst offensive line in the league. We have a multi-headed backfield. We got an offense quarterback by Kim Ward, who sees, I don't know. I'm starting to get real, real worried about him. Tony Pollard's ADP is like 80. And I have him at 81 or something like that. And even when he falls past his ADP I'm not, it's not an exciting click. So Tony Pollard finished last season like gangbusters. I mean, he was legit like one of the best running backs in the league over the final four games of 2025. And still, it's an ugly one. - For sure. - All right, let's go to whatever he wants to hear about. Sleepers. And you know, it's hard to give sleepers, especially the running back position, especially in today's fantasy football landscape. Silver mentioned one that was on my list already. Chris Rodriguez goes very, very late for a player who I think will have the goal line role in a good offense and a chance to win some more base. The other late round target that I will give is Keaton Mitchell. I don't know exactly what Keaton Mitchell's role is going to be. But if you have injuries and you have bi weeks and you tell me Keaton Mitchell is going to get nine touches or 10 touches in a game, I could do worse than putting that into my lineup, you know. And I'm more of a volume guy typically than an efficiency guy. But Keaton Mitchell is such an outlier even on nine touches, 10 touches. On a nine or 10 touch projection, I think you can start him in the right kind of deeper formats. So those are the two that were on my list, Seerad and Keaton as late round sleepers. I like Dago's call of Jonah Coleman here. Also, Dago, any other sleepers or late round guys, you want to get off your chest and running back? As you said, love Keaton Mitchell. I also think it's going to be much easier to flex Keaton Mitchell, no, when to flex him than a lot of other people are suggesting, given probably the choices will be wide receiver two's on bad offenses compared to Keaton Mitchell's eight touches. And I'm going to take the explosiveness and good matchups with a great offensive play collar. We just talked about the Titans backfield. I look at all the late round handcuffs, though, that we'll discuss in a moment towards the end of the show. And I see that they all have to have an injury ahead of them to really supplant that guy. Nicholas Singleton, I would argue is the one player who I'll probably drop in week five, but also I would argue he doesn't have to have an injury ahead of him to suddenly win that job towards the end of the year. Given that Tony Pauler, George Peralron have decreased now for three consecutive seasons, Tajay Spears has yet to come for his job. So he's not really anyone. I'm worried about taking it. It's at least open for Singleton to do something. And he's another guy who's averaged a one and a half yards per out run the last three seasons in college. So I like stashing that chance as a really last round guy. And then another one, which fits aligned with Silva if you think Quinch on Juck and Zyre they're going to struggle in returning from injury or be a dead zone back. Only three running backs averaged two yards per out run last year. Bijan Robinson is a first round pick. Jalen Warren, it's a strong mid-round selection and Dylan Samson who you can get for free and stash in a Todd Munkin offense. So I've come around a lot more on Dylan Samson the last month seeing his ADP go so late. That's a player I'm really high on. - Yeah. I've been out on Singleton just as the third running back and I think a return man for a really bad team. Samson is one that is interesting to me. That was his calling card coming out and like play really well in the passing game. And I think with Todd Munkin, I think Dylan Samson is okay there. Silva, any later round guys you want to get off your chest before you move to handcuffs here? - The thing is that my stuff veers right into handcuffs. So you want to just jump right to handcuffs? - Let's go to handcuffs. So last topic here today is handcuffing. Just a strategy point I want to make. Handcuffing to me in redraft is very different than bestball. In bestball, I like taking other people's handcuffs. In other words, if I had Bijan Robinson, I would take Tank Bigsby over Brian Robinson. Because in these bestball tournaments, I'm trying to get a super team. But in a 12 team league, I don't need a top 1% outcome. And so more of a four play, which I want, rather than a ceiling play in bestball. So if I have sake one in a 12 team league, I'm going to take or at least think about taking Tank Bigsby. So just a strategy point there for me on handcuffing Silva, go ahead with your favorite or any thoughts on handcuffs here. - Yeah, and at the same time. And I agree with that. I do think that even in a redraft season long, like people should be willing to just stack their bench with backup running backs, regardless of whether or not they have the starter. - Yeah, agree. - Because those guys provide ample, ample upside. Mike Washington is a guy who stands out to me behind Aston Gen T. With the Raiders, it seems like Mike Washington, who was a total freak athlete, sort of an underachiever [BLANK_AUDIO] But a total freak athlete who the Raider selected in the fourth round and It seems like he has run away with the Raider's number two running back job in an improving environment In a situation where Genji looks like he's gonna get a lot of a ton of touches And that will put him at risk of injury Mike Washington is one of my favorite handcuffs slash sleepers the yeet cannon March on Lloyd, I mean, there's enough buzz around him now that I'm not sure that he's you know a true sleeper But he's definitely an upside handcuffed He can play in the passing Amy ways 220 pounds when he was coming out of USC He ran in the four fours. He's behind a player in Josh Jacobs who's already been banged up and There's still some lingering risk that he could be suspended before the season Tyler Algear Behind Jeremiah Love who already has a high ankle sprain in Arizona We know that Tyler Algear can at least play a little bit and that coaches can feel very comfortable giving him the ball at The goal line Jaden blue we talked about him. You mentioned tank Bigsby Those are some of my fair. I This is gonna be gross, but I was kind of into Alvin Camera Before we learned today that he has a sprained MCL so I'm taking him off of my list That helps Travis ETN though because there was some risk that Alvin Camera was gonna get the ball and scoring position in in the passing game Yeah, when I think about these late-round picks I want to know in my head What is the bet that I'm making am I making a stand-alone bet or am I making a bet where the starter has to be injured because when you get into Spots we might have to drop guys. I think you have to understand what you're going for I try to keep as many of these guys that are clean handcuffs on my bench not all of them Art clean like I would not consider Jaden blue a clean handcuff if Javante Williams went down I think we would see other guys believe Davis Filmafa whatever the reason I think tank Bigsby is such a clean handcuff Is because if sake one Barclay went down he would have the sake one Barclay role and I just think Tank Bigsby is really good. You could say the same thing Dagle about Blake Korum Although you have to pay way way more to get Blake Korum because he will have some stand-alone value there himself Dagle any more thoughts here on hand cover That's why when we're nitpicking. I don't mind going to my players direct back up if that player is in fact a direct back up Like if I have James Cook And I go Ray Davis that makes a lot more sense than if I go DJ Giddens or Seth McGowan instead of Ray Davis even though I have Jonathan Taylor because we're just not sure right now So I'm still leaning those guys. Silva mentioned a lot of them Mahayana Marsha on Lloyd is a really sneaky one - because maybe Josh Jacobs has to get out of the way But we don't know their roles since Marsha on Lloyd has never been healthy He's healthy maybe he just gets 8 to 10 touches per game since Jacob's efficiency has declined Might at least the last couple years beyond that though I would also throw in Woody Marx because we already saw the Texans give him 20 touches per game going into the playoffs That's the kind of guy that I want given if a starter is injured Last one that I wanted to ask you guys about is Emmett Johnson There has been buzz lately out of chiefs camp that Emmett Johnson is getting a lot of the reps directly behind Kenneth Walker Evan and I are both really high on Kenneth Walker So I want to try to get this one right Evan. Are you thinking or you have any optimism for Emmett Johnson as a direct handcuff to Kenneth Walker? Yes, and I love what we've heard about him so far in training camp in the preseason He's a guy who can he caught a lot of passes in college and we know that historically at least when Andy Reed has had a running back like that He's going to use that And it seems like Emmett Johnson has pulled ahead for the RB two job in Kansas City In Kansas City that's really shouldn't be surprising because I'm already Marcaro is just using very good So yeah, I have a to-do list and that's to get Emmett Johnson into my top 150 and to make him a player That I want to draft. I mean, you know here sitting here three weeks away from You know the start of the season like I want to make sure that I get enough Emmett Johnson as my RB five RB six Going forward because I don't have any I don't have a whole lot of them Right now. I want to change that. Yeah, they only thoughts on that or any final guys you want to throw out before we get out of here No thoughts really the second running back, but again, I think we're all even our projections comfortable betty-gon Kenneth Walker taking the pass catching role So Emmett Johnson strictly a direct back up there Yeah, I think I've said no with handcuffs. All right This was good. I'm glad we did this running back remains the most important position In fantasy football for more on strategy be sure you're subscribed to YouTube. We will be talking about Running back strategy and all other draft strategy later this week You can also find my thoughts on strategy and every player in the player by player notes and the draft strategy column Dagle and silver continue to work on the tears when you're drafting of course you should be drafting Through the tears and as we get set for official home leaks slash redraft season remember the extension That we put out for you guys if you have draft kit you have access to it Views the extension you will be able to see our rankings while you're doing a draft on ESPN Yahoo or sleeper And it'll cross the names off as guys get picked. So be sure you are using that all right for Dagle For silver Prisa Ryan Prisa Luke guy madam good luck everybody (upbeat music)