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What Would It Take to Actually Trust Each Other? The Game Theory Dilemma

45m 28s

What Would It Take to Actually Trust Each Other? The Game Theory Dilemma

The discussion centers on how game theory—a strategic framework for competition—has colonized modern life, from technology and dating to politics and AI. Originating from John von Neumann's work to formalize games like chess, it promotes a logic where cooperation is seen as a weakness, forcing actors to adopt competitive, calculating behaviors to avoid being outcompeted. This results in a societal shift toward inauthenticity, eroding trust and deadening culture. The current AI arms race exemplifies and accelerates this problem. However, game theory is not an inescapable law; it is a human-constructed model based on assumptions that all value is scarce and measurable, ignoring positive-sum human needs like love and community. Examples like high-trust societies show cooperative alternatives are possible. The conclusion is that recognizing game theory's limitations is crucial to consciously designing a more human and fulfilling world, especially as AI magnifies its risks.

Transcription

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English
Hey everyone, it's Tristan Harris. And I'm Azaraskan. Welcome everyone to your Undivided Attention. So Tristan, today I think is actually one of our favorite episodes because we're diving really deep into a way of seeing the world that feels very obvious, that feels sort of like your naive, if you don't adopt it, but that is causing the deadening of a world. That is game theory. Yeah, I mean, and the simple way to boil that down is the logic that you've heard of this podcast before, around AI and social media, well, if I don't do it, they will. You know, if I don't race for that attention and hijack people's psychological vulnerabilities to build social media doom scrolling machines, then I'm just going to lose to the other company that will. If I'm a movie studio and I don't release Spider-Man 7 while the other guy is releasing Batman 10, I'm just going to lose the game of building successful movies. If I don't build the advanced AI as fast as possible and take all the shortcuts, even though taking shortcuts is bad for humanity, well, then I'll just lose and they'll win. And cooperation, therefore, is for suckers. And this logic, you know, feels inescapable. It feels like it's a fundamental law of human nature. But this episode with our guest Sonia Amadi is about why it's not actually a fundamental law. It's a specific way of looking at the world, a way of looking that was invented by humans. We sort of call this the game theory dilemma, which is to say that if I adopt game theory and you don't, you lose. So game theory was actually invented in the 1940s by one of the greatest mathematicians and physicists of all time, John Van Neumann, and he was trying to understand how do you formalize how you win parlor games like chess and poker. And this ended up getting used all the way up to our most existential threats like the nuclear bomb, how it gets deployed. But there's something very interesting that happened, which is to treat all of human endeavours like a chess or poker game that is winnable. And so there's been this propagation of games, winnable games, to be the fundamental substructure of everything from war to AI. So our guest today Sonia Amadi argues that it doesn't have to be this way, that game theory misses fundamental aspects of what it means to be human. She's professor of political science at the University of Helsinki. She's also the director at the Center for Exesential Risk at the University of Cambridge. She's the author of a book on exactly this topic, The Prisoners of Reason, Game Theory and the Neoliberal Economy. Professor Amadi, welcome to your invited attention. I'm delighted to be here. Thank you for the invitation. Just to sort of lay out the problem. It's that if I use game theory and you don't, I will outcompete you because I'm acting strategically wisely. So if you don't know game theory, then you're the sucker, so that sucks everyone into using game theory, but that changes who we are. You're changing the basis of trust, you're changing the kind of society that gets created. And we don't want to live in the society that is purely ruled by game theory. And that's sort of like the game theory dilemma, if you will, the dilemma of game theory itself. So the reason that is and I were so interested in doing this episode is if you look around the world, the world kind of feels like it's being colonized by this cold strategic logic. Let's just give a few examples of where this is showing up across a few different domains. It struck me in doing research for this episode that game theory can colonize dating. So pickup artistry is like a game theory version of dating where people are making a cold calculus of I'm going to say and speak the thing that will get me the outcome that I want. And I can measure that if I do this action versus this action, it will lead to this result. If I'm designing software, like I should be designing software like Azaz Dad who started the Mac and Dodge project thinking about what's good for people, how do I make this really usable, what's going to lead to these really positive outcomes for society. But then I notice that there's these other guys that are making software in a race to hijack human attention, which means they're racing to hijack human vulnerabilities, which means that they're actually measuring using AB testing. If I design it this way versus this way, I'll actually get more results. I'll get more engagement. I'll get more screen time. I'll get more people scrolling for longer. They'll come back more often if I make the button red instead of blue or if I use a notification or if I highlight their best friend or their girl that they've been spying on, you know, actually liked their post. And because they're in this logic of measurement, game theory colonized software design or then memetics and culture and political campaigns where you have a politician who maybe wants to say something authentic and true for them and meaningful and heartfelt and sincere, but then they're told by their advisors, no, you can't say that. We measured the results of these different communications and you should say it this way versus that way. And what it leads to is this kind of deadening of culture, this deadening of dating, this deadening of relationships, this deadening of software design. And then now you get to AI where AI is here. And instead of designing AI in a way where we focus on designing cures for cancer for all of us who have leveled into cancer right now and really focusing on that so we can actually get the benefits of that direct outcome that supposedly this is all for. We're seeing companies in a race to scale these crazy, super, you know, uncontrollable, inscrutable, powerful intelligences under the maximum incentives to cut corners on safety. And so in every way, game theory has colonized not just technology and software, but like more and more of our total world. And I want people to get this because I think it helps explain almost there's a good news to it, which is what you see out there in the world when it feels dead or meaningless or cold or strategic, that's not authenticity. That's actually just a world that has been colonized by game theory. And so what I want to get for this episode is how do we help expose how did this logic really take over? So I think can we tease that out a little bit just so that people can get a little bit of a flavor of why this is so critical? The most basic point would be to look at the original text, which was John Von Neumann and Oscar Morgan Stern's theory of games and economic behavior. The expected utility theory was part of this technological decision, theoretical breakthrough that allowed social scientists that were using that approach to claim that anything that has any value at all can be captured by expected utility theory. Von Neumann thought that all value could actually be monetized, which you could argue about. But that's the way he thought about it. He thought that you could put a monetary value on anything by watching people's behavior, seeing what they're willing to pay to have a certain outcome. Basically he had that idea, you could put a monetary value on everything that would motivate people that would incentivize people. And the expected utility theory let you knew that. To probably important to let people know a little bit about Von Neumann. Yeah, who is John Von Neumann seems like such a pivotal figure in John Von Neumann is, well, first he was operating in quantum thermodynamics, so he axiomatized quantum theory. So he's a mathematical prodigy ingenious. He immigrates to the United States prior to the Second World War because it wasn't safe. He had the Jewish ancestry, so he moves to the United States. And he takes up at Princeton, which then was this location from where he ended up playing a pivotal role in the Manhattan Project, which is in building the atomic bomb that was then used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the Second World War. He actually chose the targets of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He was on the committee that made those decisions. So just to quickly tie, let's see if I'm getting this history right, Von Neumann is trying to understand how to win at games of chess and poker. He's trying to formalize these sort of parlor games. And to do that, he has to make an assumption about human nature and an assumption about the game being played, which is that you have to win. There is no such thing as cooperation in chess. Then that model that he creates gets picked up and used because he's part of the Manhattan Project to model the quote-unquote game between all the great powers. And so now this very dimensionally reduced model of what humans are, ones where we don't cooperate, is now the basis for the most important decisions the world is making. We've applied a theory of parlor games to nuclear weapons. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. And that's how you end up with a world where thousands and thousands of nuclear weapons are built on both sides enough to destroy the entire world, and that is what keeps the world safe, even though it's safe under the, you know, just hair trigger, hairline sort of level of fragility where just one little false step could still end the world. And yet that was the quote-rational thing for us to do. But if you try to escape that logic, like you say, well, we shouldn't build nuclear weapons and you come in as a peace activist, you say, we should just dismantle all nuclear weapons. Well, how do you stop the other guy from doing that? And you end up with game theory feels and escapable. If I don't do it, I just will lose to the other one that will. Yeah. And what you see a lot today in the way that game theory in the prisoner's dilemma is projected in these arms race over AI is asymmetric power. So the UK security strategy for 2025 is all about asymmetric advantage. And that is a real change of world view from a classic liberal, multilateral world where we would be hoping for mutual benefit and game theory would lead you to conclude there's no other way to come to this solution, quote, unquote of this situation. It's non-negotiable, non-navigable. If I'm the guy that is going to be cooperating, people will trample me, I will not survive and propagate. You're seeing game theories that's in public policy, it's in economics, it's in political science, it's in nuclear deterrence, it's in biology, evolutionary game theory. And the idea in game theory is that you would only ever say some things strategically. And when you are a game theoretic actor, every time that you say anything, it is only what you need to say to get a specific outcome. So it's deeply embedded in the architecture of our world. So a moment ago, you heard Sonia refer to the prisoner's dilemma. This is a classic game theory problem showing why two rational individuals might not cooperate even when it seems beneficial, and that leads to a worse outcome for both. But it's called the prisoner's dilemma, because it imagines a scenario where there's two prisoners from a crime, and they're being interrogated separately. And each one has to decide, do I stay silent? Or do I betray the other? If they both stay silent and say that they didn't do it, then they both get light sentences. But each is tempted to betray the other and say that the other one did it. And that way they can go free. If they both give into that temptation, then they both end up with the harsher sentences than if they had just cooperated. And my book, Prisoners of Reason, one of the things I really struggled with, is how do you present the prisoner's dilemma in such a critical way that when people finish reading the book, they would question the logic of the prisoner's dilemma. And the whole book is written under that attempt to unlearn it from people even though it's teaching the prisoner's dilemma at the same time. So people become critical consumers of Game Theory, and it's very, very, very difficult to do that. And then there's a synomaly about, well, why is it that actual humans don't necessarily follow the logic of Game Theory, and especially those that are untudered in Game Theory, the ones that haven't been exposed to logic or taught it methodically in classes, they end up being the ones that would probably be more cooperative. I work in Finland at the University of Helsinki, and I think it's actually a crime of some kind to teach the prisoner's dilemma because the students just cooperate there. They can't fathom. And if I've done these, not experiments, but simulations, and often it's the foreign students that would be more prone to being a scenario where they would try to take advantage. And for the finished students, the logic doesn't make any sense because Finland is very high-trust society, and it doesn't run according to the logic of either Game Theory or the prisoner's dilemma, not at the moment anyway. And there's the reason that it would be a crime, or you feel like it's a crime to teach to the Finland students is because once they learn it, it even starts to shift some of their thinking and behavior. Yeah. Finnish kids, students, they are naturally more cooperative, creating a more trusting society. And to introduce Game Theory to them, interpersonally means you're changing the basis of trust, you're changing the kind of society that gets created. And we don't want to live in the society that is privy ruled by Game Theory. We want to-- Strategic rationality. Exactly. And that's sort of like the Game Theory dilemma, if you will. Once you see it that way, it's almost its own mimetic kind of infection. It actually infects everyone else's thinking. And the more people think in terms of that way, the more people are actually operating from a calculated place, the more people's speech is calculated, the more they start to out-compete others, and the more that group starts to out-compete everybody else who's not operating with Game Theory. So it has this kind of dominating, totalizing. You can see it like a global virus, like coronavirus, but it's a Game Theory virus sort of colonizing the world and bringing more people into that mode of reasoning. So theoretically, if actors can actually find some authentic trustworthy place, like at their jokes about, what was it? It was doing hot tub diplomacy, where you had some of the Soviet nuclear scientists with the American, I don't know if they were nuclear folks, but I know there are people that were involved and there's these jokes about hot tub diplomacy. You got to get people in a hot tub just like actually talking to each other as raw human beings reckoning with what's actually at stake. But to do that, you need this communication. You need authentic communication. You need-- You are a trustworthy actor who is communicating with me honestly about what you actually feel. And I'm a trustworthy actor who is receiving your communication and communicating honestly in return. And in a way, the whole problem is trustworthyness. So when people start to shift from communication that's honest to communication that's calculating, where the word communication is almost a false idea. You were actually signaling to each other. So I'm speaking tokens at your brain that I'm calculating and you know that I'm speaking tokens at your brain. So then you counter-respond with tokens at my brain. You see how Game Theory starts to kind of make the whole world feel inauthentic, make the whole world feel calculating, and if we don't do something about it, we end up in this bad outcome. And that's what nations do, right? North Korea sends a calculated statement where they use exactly these words but not these words, because they're trying to escalate in kind of this tiered signaling regime. But you're just saying, you're bringing up so many important points about the way that communication is so fundamental, but then also the way that communication itself doesn't get to be a useful tool in Game Theory because it becomes itself colonized by Game Theory. And just to build on that a little bit, the Game Theory dilemma is that if we can all see that the world that everyone operating on Game Theory and then AI, which perfectly operates on Game Theory, that world that that creates either is non-existent or nobody wants to live in. And it's by seeing that that's a world nobody wants to live in that we create the opportunity for choosing something much for human. And just to sort of double-underline why AI is so central to this conversation and we said this in the AI dilemma talk we gave several years ago, is that AI arms every other arms race. If there's a military arms race, AI arms and supercharges the military arms race. If there's a corporate arms race, if there's an A/B testing, memetic, you know, political communication arms race, AI will arm that arms race too. And so the reason that we have to reckon with Game Theory itself is because AI is like the maximization of Game Theory logic, which is its own kind of singularity of just catastrophe. And so AI is almost like a gift to actually look at the inadequate framework of Game Theory because it's already been inadequate, but we kind of keep pushing the can down the road. But now because it's sort of making every problem that comes from Game Theory so visible, we have to reckon with it itself. So in the search for solutions about how we escape Game Theory, it's really important for us to look at what are the assumptions that Game Theory makes about human nature so we can find and where there are cracks. So can you outline what are the assumptions that Game Theory makes about human nature? So according to Game Theory, value has to be scarce. And since Game Theory says that everything valuable can be counted for in its metric accounting system of what is valuable, then everything that humans would value would need to be scarce. But if you look at, for example, my favorite, the Maslow pyramid, where you look at all the different levels of what has value, and if you look at esteem, self-confidence, all of the higher levels of the Maslow pyramid are usually, there are positive some aspects that it doesn't, if someone gets a good night's sleep, for example, that usually doesn't take away from somebody else getting a good night's sleep or somebody feels self-esteem that shouldn't detract from somebody else. So right away, we're in a world where all of the things that we can put evaluation on are scarce and we're going to be competing over them. And actual relationships, friendship, love, family, having children. Most of what we value, I would argue, is actually these positive some goods that you're never going to even begin to enter into some kind of a game theory payoff, right? That's what's the payoff. And just for listeners, this is the Maslow's hierarchy of needs. It's a framework that Abraham Maslow came up with for what are the different hierarchies of human needs starting at the base foundational level of shelter and sleep and biophysical needs, but going up to these more abstract needs of self-esteem, and then eventually self-actualization, love, belonging, community, and your point is that those things are not zero-something. If I have esteem, this is why corporations and organizations are always about doing appreciation days. And we really appreciate this employee who did this and this and this. This is ways of dulling out more of a fulfilling society that's not zero-something. And there's also a hearing in there, the assumption that only things that can be measured matter, because the only thing can you reason on them. So how do you put a number on love or on friendship? And so then, game theory just doesn't have anything to say about it, so it doesn't model it? No, it's worse. It will do a Sophie's choice move and say, no, but you will save one child before the other if there's a fire. And that's the horrible thing about the way a game theory does valuation of what's important to people. We'll say, no, it can always, that's what von Neumann would say. No, you can always put someone in a situation where they'll need to choose. And when they're making that choice, then you can do that preference architecture of mapping what people's desires are, and they're maybe now their intentions. So it's very insidious, because it lifts us out and it constructs a world, if you're creating institutions according to this logic, you're constantly putting people in situations where they will feel like it's non-navigable to start perceiving and acting in a world according to that fundamental assumption that anything that's valuable is scarce and competitive. It's very frightening. It's like a nightmare. It's just like putting ourselves in a nightmare world and then saying, oh, but you'll never wake up from this nightmare. I think it's important to note that in a world that has sort of been colonized by so much by game theory and what is effective and what is just Machiavellian, and that world selects for psychopaths and Machiavellianism, the dark triad characteristics, basically. So dark triad being the narcissism, Machiavellianism and psychopathy, so the inability to empathize with others, because the better you are at not empathizing with others, the more you can act just cold rationally, the better you'll do it, those kinds of cold games. The more Machiavellian and strategic you, your mind is, and you can just reason that way, the better you'll do at these games, and the more sort of narcissistic and kind of self-important you are, the better you'll do at these kind of games. When you look out there in the world and you say the world looks like it's run by psychopaths, well, that's because the system, being run more by game theory, selected for those who would actually be complicit and not have a problem with playing that perverse game. It takes people that might even start compassionate warm et cetera in their lives and the ones who continue to play the game and don't burn out and don't want to keep doing it. The ones who don't want to do it, they burn out, they do something else. The ones who do want to keep doing it are the ones who are capable of becoming sort of those dark triad folks. And I want people to know that that doesn't mean that actually that's the vast majority of people. It's actually a small set of people who have been selected for and put in the top positions of power. So you were getting through the assumptions and you just gave us the first one of game theory. The assumptions. The other is this potentialism. This is not an invention. This is a discovery, this idea that we evolved to be these machines that have to propagate in the way that you would do that is to be the perfect strategic actor. So it's an essentializing of this rationalities. And then that reinforces that there's really no alternative. Those of us who might be a different way, we will get suckered. We're going to fall by the wayside, all of those bad things. And then the other assumption that we are programmed to be this way means there is no alternative that you cannot but be an individual competitor or a strategic competitor or you will pay the price for that. Let me see if I'm getting it right. So it's like the core assumptions, essentialism that were programmed to be strategic competitors, but if you're rational, then you do X becomes proscriptive, not just descriptive, you have scarcity, only scarce things have value, heads competition is inevitable. And then the last one is that there's no alternative. The strategic competition is non-negotiable. If you don't play the game, you lose. If you opt out, you lose. And so if we dive into these core assumptions now, so if these are the assumptions that undergird the game theory locks in, this is the only one way to see the world, how would we explore these assumptions or see if they're limited one by one? Well, the first one is easy, the value, because I'm not sure about everyone, but many people probably do feel that there are aspects of their lived experience, if you're spending time with a loved one, or if you're feeling that this person is in some kind of pain and you have that empathy, I think most of us experience the higher levels of the Mazzle Period pyramid and know that those are not zero sum goods. They're inherently positive sum, where if one person has self-esteem, it doesn't take away from another person's self-esteem, not if you're in the advanced top of the Mazzle pyramid, maybe for a narcissist, if someone else has self-esteem, you'd want to destroy it, but not for mature adults that are evolved to the top of the pyramid. So that one, I think, is pretty easy to grasp, and then it's just a question, but how do we bring that love, empathy, and positive sum goods into our world? So that would be the next question. So I have spent a long time thinking about that, and I think it starts with understanding this logic of the prisoner's dilemma, because if you're in the world of scarce goods, everything is a prisoner's dilemma, and you really, it is non-navigable. But the way out of that, and I think it's so simple, is that you just ask yourself the question, if the other guy went ahead and cooperated ahead of me, do I cooperate or not? Do you believe my signaling that I was trustworthy? But if I'm actually not a game theoretic strategic rational actor, I will cooperate if the other guy does, and then what you're trying to build is assurance, and trust based on the fact that I am trustworthy, and we all know if we're trustworthy, and the trustworthiness just comes down to do I cooperate if the other person does. And then you've broken out of the prisoner's dilemma, and you're starting to think about value in ways where value, it expands into two major concepts. One is solidarity, where you feel that solidarity with a common cause, with other people, and you'll fight for a cause. And we know, look at Tiananmen Square in China, look at that video that lives on in all of our minds of the man standing in front of the tank, why? Why did he do that? He was not strategically rational. But the people that were protesting over and again in history, like in the Gandhi Peace movement, they had the solidarity, which meant that they had this way of connecting and working together that was very powerful. They stepped outside the logic of all this was inevitable, there's nothing that we can do, and they did something that broke out of it, and they were trustworthy, and they somehow the actions that they did tapped into something in the collective consciousness that broke through and popped out of some of the containers somehow. Yeah, and a lot of working game theory has been to say that is irrational, that if you are able to work with solidarity, that that's evil, that it's communist, that it can only happen if there's some kind of dictator that's incentivizing people and controlling them, that it's not natural for people to have solidarity in terms of some kind of a connection and a common cause. And the other thing is commitment, and commitment basically means that you, if you promise something, you go through with it, and Finland, for example, is such a hydro society, that if you give your word on something, then that is who you are, stepping entirely out of the world of game theory and saying, "I will carry through on my promise no matter what." I mean, so banal, right, keeping one's word, how did we lose that? Is fundamental the civil society or that that would be a choice? How did we lose the idea that that's just a fundamental choice for being a moral agent in a political economy? That's just baffling. We have to combat that. It's very subtle and simple, but we have to believe what we say. And believing what we say, it sounds so trivial, but it's actually pretty difficult, because how many times you just say whatever it takes, just to get some outcome versus believing what we're actually saying, and that's a basic duty for being a citizen in society, is stating what we believe and then trying to make our statements to be true. So those are three pretty basic antidotes that we're all able to put into action. So, let's just talk about how this all connects to the AI arms race. Ran, the same non-profit defense think tank that has been involved in research in nuclear game theory and deterrence, etc., has also been doing research on the military strategic applications of AI since the 1950s, and AI was framed exactly like Nuke's existential technology that's requiring strategic dominance, where fear drives the race, game theory legitimizes the fear. If anything, game theory got even more powerful inside of the reasoning at AI, because AI is unique in the fact that it can create step functions in my knowledge of physics or step function in my knowledge of math or step functions in my knowledge of energy production, and those step functions at any of those scientific domains could create a step function in military domains or a step function in industrial domains, where if suddenly you can produce energy in order of magnitude more cheaply than me, or produce all goods in order of magnitude more cheaply than me, or produce suddenly an infinite supply of weapons in a way that I don't have, because AI is a race to arm every other arms race and a race to these step functions, it actually favors this kind of race to an asymmetric advantage, which then becomes the policy, which then becomes the kind of, we shouldn't do anything to regulator set guardrails on this at all, and it's why you have currently in the United States a proposal for a federal preemption on AI, meaning we don't want any states to regulate AI, we're going to stop and actively prohibit regulations at the state level, because we need a no-holds-barred race to asymmetric advantages on every sector. Yeah, and then the AI is programmed to be a strategic rational actor because rationality is this thing that is game theory. When you put those two together that are we interpret that there has to be this AI arms race, the US wants total strategic dominance in AI for that exact reason, that it's going to give the advantage where there's no coming back. Once the US dominates an AI, it's escalatory in the sense that the AI will keep feeding back that logic for being rational, and then the human makers of policy will say, "But we need to say symmetric advantage," and that's like the ultimate winning of this paradigm, that the paradigm won, and then it is harder because you and I can take those easy steps of knowing there's more values and scarce value. We can be trustworthy, we can believe what we say, and we can cooperate with others and form groups. And how do we break that out of the highest foreign policy environment, especially when you see that the people that are in that environment have been trained for years in this way of thinking? So how do you redo this, especially since the AI is going to be amplifying that set of beliefs? That's, I think, where we are right now, and I think that's quite a predicament. This reminds me also of an example that I think we might have mentioned on this podcast before. How do you break out of this trap? That's not fully true, but if in the world of relationship vicious spirals, two people are in a relationship, and they're in a vicious spiral, or one starts criticizing the other, the only way that the other knows how to respond is, "Well, you criticize me, so Tid for Tat, I'm going to criticize you. Well, did you know that you left the dishes out or you did this bad thing, and then you end up in a downward spiral where both parties actually don't feel good at the end of the day?" And they're left with kind of a collective relationship commons between them that is degraded from the fact that they both openly criticize each other. And if you're operating in that paradigm, it might seem like, "Well, that's the only thing that could have happened." Clearly, that person criticized me. That's the only route that we could have gone from there. And then you have Marshall Rosenberg come along, the inventor of non-violent communication, who says, "Actually, it might appear that way, but it turns out there's this other communication, I don't want to call it a strategy because that makes it calculated and game theoretic, but you basically respond with what it felt like to receive that or hear that. When you said this, I noticed I felt that." And you just start with that, because I'm sharing what the effect of what you just said was, what it did to me, but in sharing what I feel because of it, now the other person's empathizing with the impact of their actions. So it's creating connection at a higher dimension than the sort of value metric of who's winning the war of that communication exercise. And in a certain way, you can think of that as a kind of creative move that up until Marshall Rosenberg, maybe people have that in some other languages and other tribes throughout history, but Marshall Rosenberg kind of put a new move onto the menu of human relationship communication dynamics. And Asa, you've talked about how, just like there was move 37 in the game AlphaGo. So when the AI that Google DeepMind built that played Go and Beep the Go player, it came up with a new move that no human had ever done called move 37. And if you had AI's that are simulating the way that this could go and actually can discover move 37's that are positive sun that look for cooperative dynamics that everyone was convinced. There's no other move. There's definitely no other better way to do this. And I think whether it's move 37 for relationships or for treaties, Asa, you've talked about this for treaties. What it would move 37 for treaties look like, alpha treaty. And maybe there are ways that AI can both be a tool in searching for positive sun games in a world that looks like we're locked in zero sun games. And that brings into my mind just on the, I think both of our favorite work in AI alignment, which is about self-other overlap. Because a lot of what you're saying here in non-bound communication is that you are internalizing the effect of your words on someone else. It becomes part of you. There's mirror neurons. And in self-other overlap, this research is very interesting. They train an AI not to be able to distinguish the difference between I and you, self and other. So that the sentence like you stole because your family needed food and I stole because my family needed food, they become sort of the same because I is equal to you. I think it's really interesting that the AI has been programmed to use the personal pronoun when we can wonder if it has that embodiment of it being a human communicator. And actually some of my colleagues, well, I put out that maybe if we'd never let AI use the personal pronoun, then at least we could have disambiguated it. If that had been just a hard and fast regulation. And my two colleagues thought that that actually would have helped us not be where we are. But if we are trying to solve the alignment problem and we don't really care if the AI refers to itself as I or not, then it does seem that it might be possible to program it, to not have that barrier or distinction. But that would be a bit of an experiment. And it's been tried. Well, if we're going to solve the alignment with that and we just cast it loose, that would be interesting to see what happens, writ large. But I still think there's worries about language changing and whether language is a strategic signaling game. And how would language function between I and you if we dissolve that barrier. But if language is still strategic, because I think we'd want to not look at language or treat language or experience language as a means of control, yes. And I think this is so important with AI, because up until recently, chat GPT went launched, we prompt AI. But what's changing in 2025 and certainly in 2026 is that AI prompts us. And so AI is AB testing. We've had politicians and marketers trying to figure out what is the most effective language. And they have a small surface area over our lives. But AI is increasingly in relationship with major portions of the population. I think what is it like one in a human adults are now in some kind of communication relationship with AI. And so AI can search through all signal language space to find the most effective ways to manipulate us. Yes. And that is a kind of threat that humanity has never had to deal with. Yeah. And you had that sentence that was in your video that was the main one that you have on the website. When you when you talk about that now language is defundamental, unifier under all of these different domains that AI would have been unleashed on. And that now because language is how we socially construct the world, that we're letting AI take control of this profound tool up this social common world construction with whatever logic is programmed into how it uses language. And that it does have the ability to just totally dissolve our social reality. If we don't find a way to control it, I thought that was probably the most profound of many profound moments in your in your conversation for the AI dilemma. The real main thing we've been exploring here is whether in kind of AI creating the zenitification of the game theory logic. Is there a way out of that? And then I'm kind of curious about the ability to kind of have this be kind of a Jubilee a break kind of a the kind of maximization of game theory leading to this desire to change. Game theory to wake up from a kind of a single single cellular narrow self interested logic that dominates the world into this kind of multicellular collaborative logic that in which we can perceive the fear of all of us losing greater than we can fear and feel the world where I lose to you. But in order for that to be true, the way in which all of us lose has to be extraordinarily clear and trustworthyly communicated and received by every agent who is in charge of making decisions about the way this goes. I have three three thoughts. One, we have a lot of freedom of choice and that starts with being trustworthy and that starts with if the other guy cooperates I will. If the other guy doesn't cooperate, I'm not going to cooperate, but if the other guy cooperates I will. So there is freedom of choice that we have fundamentally as agents. Then I was thinking about the nuclear movie the day after. The movie Sonya is referring to here is called The Day After. It's a 1983 movie that depicts the brutal aftermath of a full-scale nuclear conflict between the US and Russia. It was seen by millions of Americans. In fact, it was the most watched television event in history and was screened for President Reagan and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Reagan later said that the film actually changed his mind on US nuclear strategy and it encouraged him pursue de-escalation with the Soviet Union. Maybe the point there is to create a Hollywood blockbuster that would be that for this moment that would build up from we can undermine those assumptions and we can have that individual freedom outside of the the AI world to have that sort of wake-up moment. And then the third thing would be, I don't know about the major programming parties that are at the AI companies. You guys are probably way more in touch with those people. But there is no reason that we would need to be stuck with this orthodox strategic form of rationality. I don't know if the if the deep mind scientists of their approaches radical enough. But yeah, why are we stuck with the prisoner's dilemma, prisoner of reason, type of approach to strategic rationality? Wouldn't it be possible to centralize a different kind? I mean, I think that if people could be, I don't like the word educated, but if there could be some kind of participatory environment where leaders are exposed to alternative ways of thinking that would be carefully thought through the way that you guys generate content. But those three things together making people feel that they don't, they can opt out at an individual level and they have the tools, even though knowing where it is hard to opt out. Something that's a collective kind of imaginary event that captures this moment and then to just go back to the foundations and realize we have so many alternatives. And there's so much goodwill and there's so many alternative realities and constructions of where we could be to draw from. So I guess I love this conversation optimistic with at least thinking those three things and some others take us in a better direction. One of the things is just to summarize that I think the day after did was that made the cost of defection negative infinity and became existential. So now cooperation becomes the rational thing to do. And I think the point of this conversation is to say with AI, game theory becomes destiny. And that destiny is a thing nobody wants that also has negative infinity. And so if we can all see that and see it clearly, that means cooperation does become the rational thing. Clarity we say on our work creates agency. And if we have clarity about the current destination being an outcome that no one wants, we can choose something else. And you know, it's a difficult picture. It is probably the hardest problem that humanity has ever faced. Certainly the hardest coordination problem that we've ever faced. And yet this whole conversation I reminded of a quote I was just pointed to recently by Lewis Alvarez, who was the winner of the 1968 Nobel Prize in Physics. Perhaps the greatest experimental physicist of the century remarked that the advocates of these sort of game theoretic schemes were quote, "very bright guys, no common sense." There's this kind of over intellectualization of that highly intelligent people build elaborate abstract models. They trust their mathematical formalism too much, but they ignore obvious real world constraints incentives, human behaviors, and deeper sort of truths of human nature, inside of which may lie the answer of snapping ourselves out of this cold mathematical logic. And so maybe we can, you know, since we're appealing to the high credibility gods here of inspiring figures of history. If I find Stein is sort of just pointing us at, what is the higher level of consciousness we need to be operating from to snap out of the lower level consciousness of just pure mathematical logic of game theory? Well said. I wanted to just call back. There were sort of two competing schools as my understanding that came post Darwin to interpret Darwin. One is it's just brutal competition. And the other one was, well, this is about mutual aid and cooperation. I think Darwin was the first person to ask, where do the noble traits come from? Like altruism and like heroism. And like, where does it come from? And we have an episode with David Stone Wilson who worked closely with the sociobiologist, Eo Wilson. And they have this wonderful phrase that sums it all up. It's why the selfish gene is so wrong. It misses this, which is selfish individuals do outcompete altruistic individuals. But groups of altruistic people outcompete groups of selfish people and everything else is commentary. And game theory misses this kind of noble traits that comes from groups operating together. It's like, because noble traits are about giving something up for a greater whole. Yeah. It's a team reasoning and team reasoning, you break entirely out of game theory. And really, that's what we are on the planet now, right? I mean, if we don't figure out a way to cooperate, rather quickly. And if we don't find a way for not to be like, we've already been colonized by institutions operating about the game theoretical logic. But once the AI is building those institutions and changing language and changing what's normal to ever and ever more higher bars of strategic competition, if we don't find a way to derail from that, it's going to be pretty desperate. But knowing it's an option and we can be trustworthy and we can believe what we say and we can have value that's not scarce. Maybe just that's an inner light that just starts to create a possible different imagining. If you, if we can start to believe that there would be an alternative possibility, then maybe that's the first step with some very minimal building blocks. Maybe we can start to create other social patterns and not to lose hope that we need to be the strategic cutthroat actors. So yeah, thank you so much for coming on your undivided attention. It's been, it is, I really think one of the most important completely under the radar conversation that needs to happen. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you so much for coming on your undivided attention. We're so grateful to have you and your work with your book, The Prisoners of Reason, is just so illuminating to highlight this for everybody. So thank you so much for writing it and for coming on. I'm delighted. Really nice to meet you both. Your undivided attention is produced by the Center for Humane Technology, a non-profit working to catalyze a humane future. Our senior producer is Julius Scott, Josh Lash is our researcher and producer and our executive producer is Sasha Fiegan, mixing on this episode by Jeff Sudaken, original music by Ryan and his holiday and a special thanks to the whole Center for Humane Technology team for making this podcast possible. You can find show notes, transcripts, and so much more at humanetech.com. And if you like the podcast, we would be grateful if you could rate it on Apple podcasts. It helps others find the show. And if you made it all the way here, thank you for your undivided attention.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. Game theory, formalized by John von Neumann, promotes a competitive "if I don't do it, someone else will" logic that colonizes diverse fields like software design, dating, politics, and AI development, leading to a "deadening" of culture and trust.
  2. This logic creates a dilemma
  3. The framework assumes all human value is scarce and measurable, ignoring positive-sum aspects of human needs like love, esteem, and community, which are fundamental to a fulfilling society.
  4. The rise of AI intensifies this problem by supercharging every competitive arms race, making the flaws of game theory more visible and urgent to address.
  5. Alternatives exist; high-trust societies like Finland demonstrate that cooperative, non-game-theoretic behavior is possible and preferable, suggesting the need to consciously choose more human-centric models.

Summary:

The discussion centers on how game theory—a strategic framework for competition—has colonized modern life, from technology and dating to politics and AI. Originating from John von Neumann's work to formalize games like chess, it promotes a logic where cooperation is seen as a weakness, forcing actors to adopt competitive, calculating behaviors to avoid being outcompeted. This results in a societal shift toward inauthenticity, eroding trust and deadening culture.

The current AI arms race exemplifies and accelerates this problem. However, game theory is not an inescapable law; it is a human-constructed model based on assumptions that all value is scarce and measurable, ignoring positive-sum human needs like love and community. Examples like high-trust societies show cooperative alternatives are possible.

The conclusion is that recognizing game theory's limitations is crucial to consciously designing a more human and fulfilling world, especially as AI magnifies its risks.

FAQs

Game theory is a strategic logic where actors compete under the belief that if they don't act first, others will, leading to a 'race to the bottom.' It's problematic because it colonizes various domains like technology, dating, and politics, making interactions feel cold, calculated, and inauthentic, ultimately creating a society that many find undesirable.

Game theory was invented in the 1940s by mathematician and physicist John von Neumann. He formalized it to understand how to win parlor games like chess and poker, and it later influenced major decisions, including nuclear strategy during the Manhattan Project.

The game theory dilemma is that if one actor adopts game theory and another doesn't, the one using it will outcompete the other, forcing everyone to adopt it. This shifts society toward strategic, untrustworthy interactions, creating a world that feels deadening and inauthentic.

Game theory turns communication into calculated signaling rather than honest exchange. Actors use words strategically to manipulate outcomes, eroding trust and authenticity, which undermines genuine relationships and cooperative societies.

AI supercharges existing arms races in areas like military, corporate, and political competition by maximizing game theory logic. It makes the flaws of this strategic framework more visible and urgent, potentially leading to catastrophic outcomes if not addressed.

Game theory assumes that all value is scarce and measurable, leading to competition over resources. It overlooks non-scarce, positive-sum aspects of human life, such as love, friendship, and self-esteem, which are essential for fulfillment but don't fit into its competitive model.

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