Speaker 1Hello, and welcome to the Rachman Review. I'm Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator of the Financial Times. This podcast is about Brazil. My guest is Oliver Stunkle, a professor at the Cotulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil, currently working at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington. The first round of the presidential election was held in Brazil over the weekend. Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate, emerged with a narrow lead over the incumbent president, Lula Inácio da Silva. The runoff between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro will be held later this month. Flavio is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced to a long jail term for attempting a coup after losing the last presidential election to Lula. So is Brazil about to elect another president Bolsonaro? And what would that mean for the country and for Latin America?
Speaker 2Flavio Bolsonaro and his supporters were in confident mood after the
Speaker 1first round of the Brazilian presidential election. The Brazilian stock market also surged on the expectation of a Bolsonaro victory in the runoff against President Lula. So I began my conversation with Oliver Stunkle by asking him if he agrees that Flavio Bolsonaro is now the clear favorite to win the presidency.
Speaker 3Yes, I think that Flavio is the clear favorite now. He has won the first round. Since 1989, no candidate who came in second in the first round turned things around to win in the runoff. There is a persistent anti-incumbency sentiment in Brazil, as in the rest of Latin America. And the other candidates in the first round are largely center-right, which means that it's very unlikely that you have voters who neither voted for Lula nor for Flavio Bolsonaro migrate to the left in the runoff. Lula could or will certainly try to mobilize part of the 33 million Brazilians, about 21% of the electorate, who didn't vote at all. I think that is a possibility. But also considering the clear rightward shift in Congress, the most likely scenario by far is that Flavio Bolsonaro will be Brazil's next president. So tell us a bit about him.
Speaker 1I mean, obviously, he's the son of Jair Bolsonaro. Is he simply a real candidate? obviously he's the son of Jair Bolsonaro. Is he simply a reincarnation of his father, just a carrier on the same political traditions? Or does he have ideas of his own? Some people suggest he's a little bit more moderate.
Speaker 3Well, he's called himself the vaccinated Bolsonaro. And that's quite significant because one of the key criticisms during Jair Bolsonaro's term was the way he mishandled the pandemic. And it's reasonable to believe that probably it's the mishandling of the pandemic that explains his loss, his incapacity to be reelected in 2022. And he rejected being vaccinated. He belittled the scientific evidence that explained the pandemic. So in this sense, saying I'm the vaccinated Bolsonaro is a way to attempt to establish a dialogue with centrist voters or conservative voters who maybe like Bolsonaro, but were put off by some of his more extreme positions in areas like public health or perhaps climate change, which he described as a Marxist conspiracy. At the same time, Flavio Bolsonaro is clearly a stand-in for his father. And in fact, he doesn't have the same trajectory. He doesn't have the charisma that his father has, and certainly would not have been the presidential candidate if his father hadn't chosen him. So in many ways, he's a continuation of Bolsonaroismo. He is the candidate because his father is in jail. He has vowed to get his father out of jail. So in many ways, we'd be looking at someone who pursues very similar policy goals.
Speaker 1Yeah. And obviously, you mentioned his father's jail sentence and the parallels with Donald Trump. Jair Bolsonaro was often called the Trump of the tropics. And Bolsonaro's rejection of a presidential candidate was a rejection of the Trump of the tropics. And Bolsonaro's rejection of a presidential candidate was a rejection of a presidential candidate. There are obvious parallels with January the 6th in Washington, except the difference being that in Brazil, Bolsonaro was tried, convicted, 27-year sentence. And yet, that doesn't seem to stop people voting for his son, who presumably says there was no coup attempt and so on. So anxieties about democracy or about a family implicated in a coup don't seem to weigh very heavily.
Speaker 3That's right. And this election must also be seen as a verdict of Brazil's historic decision to punish and imprison Jair Bolsonaro for having tried to stage a coup, and along with him, four leading military officials. That has been hailed around the world as an example of how to contain authoritarian tendencies, how to make democracies more resilient. Lula won that election by building a very large tent, bringing in people from the far left all the way to the moderate right, but barely won the election, with around 51% at the time. So there was an expectation, particularly after the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro, that Brazil had taken a decisive step away from the cliff, that Brazil's democracy was now more consolidated. But this election suggests, and particularly if Flavio Bolsonaro wins, which is the most likely, scenario, that most likely Jair Bolsonaro, his father, would get out of jail and would potentially have an important role in the incoming administration. There are several reasons to explain that. And speaking to voters on both sides, we perceive a very polarized political environment in which the key motivation, both on the left and the right, is the fear and the rejection of the other side. So a lot of Bolsonaro voters I've spoken to were above all concerned about ending the Lula presidency. And accusations of Flavio Bolsonaro as someone with authoritarian convictions were sort of rejected and said, you know, this is a partisan argument. A lot of the Flavio Bolsonaro voters said that the actual threat to Brazil's democracy was an overly active Supreme Court, that the conviction was unjust, that our democracy was a threat to Brazil's democracy, and that we had the right to vote. And I think that there's a lot of concern about that. And I think that the fact that Flavio Bolsonaro won the election and that he won the election, I think that there's a lot of concern about that. I think that there's a lot of concern about that. And I think that there's a lot of Brazilian democracy was, for the majority of voters, not a decisive concern, which would explain them not voting for Flavio. Another issue may be that this happened four years ago. Things relatively quickly got back to normal. So if you spoke to voters, say, a year after these riots, the subject really came up. So in a way, the quick normalization also contributed perhaps to the fact that this event now, for many, has been forgotten.
Speaker 1I'd be very interested to know what you made of the evidence in that trial. I mean, do you think Bolsonaro did attempt to stage a coup?
Speaker 3Well, yes. I mean, Bolsonaro not only decided not to concede, but also systematically spread fake news about the integrity of the electoral system. It was actually quite predictable that something like that would happen. So it's a very interesting thing. Along with numerous political analysts, I spoke and wrote about the risk of a Brazilian January 6. We expected something like that to happen. The military sought to assume a more relevant role in approving the final result. There was lots of fake news being spread about the possibility of trampling in the electoral system. So in a way, Bolsonaro was laying the groundwork for questioning the result and ended up doing precisely that. And you did have a very similar event occurring in Brazil after the election. It was on January 8, 2023. There's also evidence of Bolsonaro and his advisors having actually explicitly planned specific actions of how to implement a coup. The big difference between Brazil and the United States was that you had an active military involvement of some parts of the military. So I do believe that the reaction by the courts at the time was exemplary. There was a significant mobilization to protect democracy. That, however, has also led to an excessively activist judiciary, Supreme Court, very little oversight, politicization of the courts, which has led to a broad rejection of the role of Supreme Court in the past years. That has reduced in the eyes of Brazilian voters the legitimacy of the court and also of the decision to imprison Jair Bolsonaro. So ironically, the courts assuming an outsized role to protect Brazilian democracy also sowed the seeds then of the politicization of the courts. Add to that a number of ethics scandals that have impacted the Supreme Court, and you now have a very diminished judiciary in the eyes of many Brazilian voters, which has led numerous right-wing candidates to promise to impeach Supreme Court justices to include that into their campaign promises. So I think that certainly the extremely strong performance of Flavio Bolsonaro in the polls and the likely decision right at the beginning of his potential presidency of removing his father from prison would force us to also revise our assessment of how democracies can withstand authoritarian trends.
Speaker 1I think it's worth sort of dwelling on Jair Bolsonaro, because as you say, Flavio, his son, is only there because of his father. He's a kind of slightly pale imitation in some ways. And Bolsonaro seems now to have really radically changed the direction of Brazilian politics. Tell us more about him, because as I understand it, for many years he was almost a joke figure. He was kind of a fringe parliamentarian, but then suddenly he emerges as this transformative figure. So how did that happen? And has he now founded not only a movement, but also a family dynasty?
Speaker 3Bolsonaro was elected president in 2016 at the height of numerous corruption scandals, which ensnared significant parts of Brazil's political elite. That contributed to a profound cynicism. There was also a sense of disillusionment after the commodity boom of the late 2000s, which had led to temporarily high growth, to lots of expectations that Brazil would finally cease to be the country of the future, but actually now be the country of the present. Significant expansion of social policies and tangible improvement of the lives of many, but also expectations that that improvement would continue. That didn't take place. We practically entered a decade of almost no growth at all. These frustrated expectations explain why there was a need to have a new government, a new government that would be capable of combating corruption. Also, at the time, due to growing disenchantment with security policies, would sort of pursue an iron fist in the fight against organized crime. And Jair Bolsonaro was able to fit the bill better than anyone else. He had been around for a long time, but certainly would not have been competitive in previous elections.
Speaker 1Okay, so coming up to the present day, if Flavio is a chip off the old block, albeit the vaccinated Bolsonaro, do we expect, if he wins, which seems like the as you say, that he will pursue policies very similar to his father?
Speaker 3Flavio Bolsonaro has a much more comfortable congressional base than his father had. His party, the Liberal Party, is the biggest block in the Senate, also remains the dominant force in Congress. He still needs to cobble together coalitions. All Brazilian presidents have to do that. But it will take him much less work than in the past, which means that there is more potential for change, as he will be able to appoint a significant number of Supreme Court justices. So I think the transformation of the Flavio Bolsonaro government could actually be far more significant than the transformation Brazil has seen during his father's time in office. It remains to be seen to what extent, Flavio Bolsonaro is able to, for example, pursue rapprochement with the United States, considering that China is a key economic partner. We'll certainly see closer cooperation when it comes to security with the United States. I expect Brazil to join the shield of the Americas. You may have joint military operations to combat cartels. Brazil will certainly align with the United States in multilateral fora. So in that sense, we will see a profound change in Brazil and foreign policy as well. But at the same time, there's also economic pragmatism. And even his father, who promised complete alignment with the United States, resisted increasing the distance to China and reducing ties to China. In fact, trade ties between Brazil and China grew during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. So there will be some resistance when it comes to more radical foreign policy changes, in part because Brazil's agribusiness, which is a key element of Flavio Bolsonaro's electoral alliance of his coalition, will certainly not be keen to reduce ties to China, considering that Brazil exports more to China than to Europe and the United States combined. And that market access to the U.S. is highly unpredictable. So many companies which used to export a lot to the United States are now seeking to diversify markets. So in that sense, I think we have more potential for change on the domestic side, significant change, also on the foreign policy side, where Flavio Bolsonaro is likely to join a group of right wing presidents across South America. This was the eighth election in about 20 months. And for the eighth time, the left has lost. So this completes Trump's Latin America map, which is now largely ideologically aligned with Washington. But at the same time, I think there will be also resistance among his electoral alliance to proposals that reduce ties to China, even in crucial areas such as rare earths. China continues to be a key partner of Brazil irrespective of the government's ideological orientation.
Speaker 1I want to come back to Brazil's international position and the relationship with Trump in a second. But you mentioned the close alliance between the Bolsonaro clan and Brazilian agribusiness. What does that imply for the Amazon? Because that has international implications and it was one of the reasons some of the outside world was not particularly happy with Bolsonaro.
Speaker 3So the agencies that combat deforestation in Brazil were decisively weakened during the government of Bolsonaro. They were strengthened again under Lula, and deforestation fell significantly and has fallen significantly over the past four years. Flavio Bolsonaro can be expected to loosen the ties between the Amazon and the Brazilian agribusiness. When it comes to the expansion of land that can be used for agricultural purposes, I would expect there to be a significant weakening again of the agencies responsible for combating deforestation across the entire country, including the Amazon. I have spoken to several agribusiness leaders who said that they are aware of the fact that this can negatively impact Brazil's reputation. to reduce the influence of government governments that are not ideologically aligned, clear support for governments that see Trump as a partner. And this policy has been quite successful. However, it's important also to point out that the return of Trump to power coincides with an anti-incumbency trend across Latin America, with the end of a wave of left-wing governments that are now being punished. In the same way, I expect the current crop of right-wing governments across Latin America to be punished in the next electoral cycle, which is part of that pendulum swing you usually see in Latin American politics. However, in at least two cases, U.S. meddling or U.S. pressure is likely to have had a decisive impact on elections. In October 2025, prior to the legislative election in Argentina, Trump threatened the Argentine voters. He would only provide financial aid if Millet's party had a strong showing. And Millet's party did, in fact, outperform polls. In November 2025, Trump came out in favor of a real estate magnate in Honduras, Nazarias Fura, called on Honduran voters to support that candidate to preserve constructive bilateral ties to the United States. In Brazil, I think it's more debatable to what extent. U.S. pressure against the Lula government over the past year has had an impact. One could even say that potentially it helped Lula as Lula sought to produce some sort of rally around the flag effect against U.S. pressure. The ideological alignment of governments in the region certainly produces short-term gains for Trump, greater potential to cooperate on things like hemispheric security, the combat against international crime. The big question is whether in the medium and long term, this strategy of partisan interventionism is in the interest of the United States. And I think there's reason to believe that while it may produce short-term gains, it also produces long-term resentment. It makes the relationship with the United States, it transforms it into a partisan issue. The imperialistic rhetoric utilized vis-a-vis oil in Venezuela, for example. It may sow the seeds of a future anti-American populist, nationalist, who runs on nationalizing the oil. So I think that there is a significant risk that the underlying response across Latin America will be the acceleration of diversification, of reducing exposure to the United States, of seeking other partners. And we see that below the radar happening even in countries nowadays. And I think that there is a significant risk that the underlying response across Latin America will be the acceleration of diversification, of reducing exposure to the United States, of seeking other partners. But in the long term, I think it increases the risk of anti-American sentiment. And recent opinion polls have showed that in numerous countries, for the first time, Chinese influence is seen as more positive than U.S. influence.
Speaker 1Just returning to Brazil itself, I mean, you said that there tends to be a strong anti-incumbency sentiment, which favored Lula at some points and now has favored Bolsonaro. Does that suggest that. If it's Flavio, he will quite quickly face very intractable issues. And I'm thinking of two in particular, the economy, where I gather the budget deficit is 8.5%, and crime, which is obviously a major concern of Brazilians' personal safety and all of that. I don't know how much progress he can make on that, but maybe he can. What's your view?
Speaker 3I expect Flavio Bolsonaro's honeymoon to be very short. No government is able to address these issues. And Lula is also paying the price for high inflation, which does have to do with excessive public spending, but also, especially more recently, with higher energy prices. Even though Brazil exports oil, the conflict in the Middle East increased energy prices. That has had a direct impact on affordability across Brazil. Flavio Bolsonaro will face these very same problems. And there is another key issue. Bolsonarismo. Just like Trumpism is very different from Javier Millet, who's really all about reducing public spending. Flavio Bolsonaro, just like his father, has adopted largely a populist rhetoric during the campaign, is very unlikely to reduce public spending. And we've seen that during Jair Bolsonaro's government as well. So particularly at this time of relatively low economic growth, reducing public spending is very unpopular. And I think that from a political point of view, it will be difficult for Flavio to be fiscally responsible. And when it comes to security, depending on how you look at it, the situation in Brazil has actually improved in the past. Homicides have gone down. Part of that has nothing to do with public policy. But these are arrangements among cartels because a lot of the homicides are the result of turf wars between different rivals. Uh, that are part. Of the criminal underworld, sort of the drug trade and so on. And a lot of it is also the responsibility of states and not of the federal government. So in that sense, I, I think the capacity that Flavio has to immediately improve that situation, uh, is also very limited. So, uh, most specialists don't expect the strategy of militarization to lead to tangible success and given how polarized Brazil is and how high the rejection rates are. Right. Yeah. I mean, I think that, I think that, I think that, I think that both candidates in the runoff are, the most likely scenario is that Flavio Bolsonaro will, right from the beginning, also suffer from high rejection rates and, uh, a lot of pushback, uh, from voters, even though there is a rightward shift, uh, Lula still got 45% in the first round. So this continues to be a very divided country.
Speaker 1Last question. If Flavio wins, will he actually be running the country? Or will he? Will he be a puppet for his father who is still in prison, but is the head of the dynasty? I mean, I, I know he's, his health's a bit, uh, weak because he was the subject of an assassination attempt, but there's also signs of feuding within the Bolsonaro family, aren't there? So, um, who's, who's actually going to be in charge and might they sort of provide a soap opera where they feud in public?
Speaker 3I certainly think that potential exists. There has been tension, public tension between Jair Bolsonaro's wife, who's now. Uh, recently elected Senator Michelle Bolsonaro and Flavio Bolsonaro. There's also questions about the future of Eduardo Bolsonaro, who's currently in the United States and has been sort of the key connection between the Bolsonaro family, uh, and the U S government, the Trump, uh, administration. He's another son. And another son, exactly. A former member of Congress who's been convicted, uh, by Brazil's Supreme court for, uh, seeking to immobilize. Foreign interest intervene in Brazil's domestic political situation who may become foreign minister. So certainly some tension there in part because Flavio Bolsonaro, not only being seen as the most moderate and almost innocuous, uh, member of the Bolsonaro family, also kind of the weakest in a way, actually, where, uh, most people would have thought five years ago that if any of Bolsonaro's sons has the potential to, uh, reach for higher office, it would certainly be Eduardo Bolsonaro. And then you have a lot of uncertainty about what Jai Bolsonaro's role will be. The former president, uh, I think health concerns are probably the main limitation. He's been in and out of a hospital. So I think that's one of the big question marks at the same time. However, uh, given that Flavio Bolsonaro is merely a stand-in and has made it very clear that he essentially represents his father. Maybe it doesn't really make that much of a difference. Whether he or his father, uh, uh, ultimately in charge.
Speaker 1That was Oliver Stunkle, professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Brazil, speaking to me from Washington and ending this edition of the Rachman Review. Thanks for listening and please join me again next week.
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