What went wrong in Latin America? - Martin Daunton

I would like to start by putting ourselves in the shoes of an immigrant, leaving Italy, just before the First World War, pondering where to go, where to settle in search of a new life. The choice of our immigrant would be to catch a steamship, perhaps to New York, or possibly to Buenos Aires. The Gresham College lecture that you're listening to right now is giving you knowledge and insight from one of the world's leading academic experts. Making it takes a lot of time, but because we want to encourage a love of learning, we think it's well worth it. We never make you pay for lectures, although donations are needed. All we ask you in return is this. Send a link to this lecture to someone you think would benefit, and if you haven't already, click the follow or subscribe button from wherever you're listening right now. Now, let's get back to the lecture. In 1910, it would be a tough choice about which destination to choose. Argentina at that point was one of the wealthiest countries in the world. But the choice made then would have great consequence for the migrant's descendants a century later. So, let me start off by looking at the difference between income levels in the two countries and with other set of economies that exported primary products like wheat, such as Canada. And you see from this graph at Argentina, the blue line starts off more or less on a par there with Canada a bit below the United States, but then look at the huge divergence which starts to take place in the inter-war period. Argentina now, along with other Latin American countries lagging far behind in terms of income ahead. So, in 1929, just before the Great Depression, Argentina was still a member of that group of rich countries. From 1960s, as you should see on that graph, it would have been better for our migrant's grandchildren to have stayed in Italy. As percentage of income levels of rich countries in the OECD, Argentina fell from about 84% of the average level of those rich countries in 1950 to 65% in 1973 and only 43% in 1987. By the early years of this century, income was only about 40% of the level of Western Europe, whereas as you saw in 1910, it was on a par. So, what went wrong is what I want to ask today. This is what is called by economists, historians, the Argentine paradox. How to explain a 60% relative drop in income levels? And as this graph shows, it was not just Argentina. Latin America's a whole did not do well, but you see that Chile, which I'll be coming on to at the end of my lecture, did start to improve in the 1970s. So, we will need to be asking, why did Chile manage to pull ahead somewhat? To understand that more recent trajectory of Argentina, we should start through an understanding of an economy before the First World War. I'm a historian, so I like to start with the historic roots of the patterns which I'm looking at, because it was the pattern set before the First World War which led to various problems. It led to social and political problems that limited the ability of Argentina, it's the sustained growth and high income, and it led to a strategy of economic nationalism, particularly under Peron, which was based upon import substituting industrialisation, an attempt to develop local industries that would replace imports of manufacturers from Europe and from the United States to go for self-sufficiency. So let me start then by looking at Argentina from its independence in the 1820s through to the beginning of the Great Depression in the 1920s. So Argentina secured independence from Spain in 1810, but that was followed by a long period of turmoil and warfare. The old Spanish vice royalty broke up into different states, they had competing claims for land in the area. And that was linked with expansion from Buenos Aires, the area around Buenos Aires, into the Pampas and into Patagonia. So this rather fanciful image is showing the war of the desert of 1833 to 4, the attempt to drive out the indigenous people, and the conquest of the desert of the 1870s and 1880s. It involved the defeat, perhaps the genocide of indigenous people. It also involved the suppression of the Gouchos. These were people very often of mixed dissents of Indian mothers, Spanish fathers who roamed the Pampas, living off ferre wild horses, cattle and game. They fought against the Spanish in the Wars of Independence, they fought in the Spanish War, in the Desert War. But as the cattle ranchers started to settle and to barbed wire around the Pampas, they were seen now as being wild and uncivilized and had to be forced to work on the ranchers to become settled peons. So it's a period of instability and a more settled political system emerged with the election of Julia Rocker as president in 1880 and he remained a dominant figure for the next 20 or 30 years. He had been a leading general in the conquest of the desert and he and the other so-called men of 1880 continued to be powerful and the party that he led and founded continued to dominate white up to 1916, the Partido Autonomista Nationalista. So they retained power despite quite a wide male franchise by ballot rigging intimidation and if all else failed the president could impose his own wishes and of course he had the army at his disposal. So what we have here is a political system which is based upon an oligarchic autocracy. It's unlike other settler societies such as Canada and Australia. They're growing the same sort of crops to same markets but they were not militarized in the same way. They didn't have civil war, didn't have conflicts with the with the neighbours. They also committed genocide or suppression of indigenous people but not through the same sort of military process that I outlined there. Two Australian historians stressed that there was a big contrast between what they call the stable flexible government of Australia and the bad government of Argentina and they see that going back to this period of the late 19th century as the key to the different trajectory at which we still see today. The government of Argentina encouraged European migrants to replace what were viewed as those uncivilized wild gouchos. That migration into Argentina started on a large scale in the 1870s attracted by higher wages than in Europe. By 1914 40% of the population of Argentina was foreign born. Many of them were Italian who were distinct from the older Spanish migrants. Many of the Italians were urbanized and many of them, this is an important point as I've seen in the lecture, they were at sympathies with socialism and anarchism. Unlike Canada and Australia where most of the migrants were predominantly from the UK, you have this more mixed ethnic background. Some historians say that that is again a crucial difference. I'm a little bit wary about these ethnic explanations. At least some historians, I quote, say a crucial difference with the political tradition and the origins of the immigrant population coming from Britain compared with southern Europeans in Argentina. There seems to be a little bit of Anglo-Saxon superiority about that argument. I'm going to put it forward somewhat different on why there were differences. One of the major differences, in fact, was the highly reliant upon foreign capital above all from Britain to build railways, to open up the campus, to build ports and meet packing stations and cold stores, and to provide utilities such as the gas and tramways here in Buenos Aires, which became a major world city with this forsenguróch ni isl ourfrau (éréda Pâimmung, congratulations) yn y poig old erect���d ein yn Chicago. Mae'n fill anw�� {Wild» o'r swine. Mae'i soblenn arrow cael amser felly – ermawd yn tab【# HS де Too Members firm … Heras'aer at gairs, وں may rodenor, o ff stranger yao mae o frytitio i'r wrth cael aw workhands am tranfaithel â fal, o ff stranger yao. Mae'r ffrau yn argyntina o ffrau yn argyntina o ffrau yn argyntina o ffrau yn argyntina o ffrau yn argyntina anag y 90 a 1914 a'r gyd yn dda, ac yn yng Nghymru a'r gyd yn i'n gwaith, fwy'n gallu, wedi'i yng Nghymru a'r Ostraliau a Cynoddi. Mae'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, mae'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith. Yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith. Mae'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith, yna'r fwy'n gwaith. Wameda yn atwys writing sy'n ll Dw Prif treatments yn ac drwedig, mae dwi'n wer financial Скla西, wrthyd yn edrydeg sydd ac oAl�ittyg, i d에도 gyda'rwrs, eraill eraill sydedodd단 (Dwb you got it was no. In was a quite cold? Mae rhywbwch ' smile' Rydych yn cael eioliad Potrhyg難 حasdio llawer, yw ' association fwy sydd ymarwch pethol fwy na correlated yn sineindu'r bosaf ssiweren. ddim yn e風 yn gwrsu ph الشekoldu mystem i Loreb yn rivall, ac duodatri sy'n yfolkau'i Cymolawulubo'r hygdych planolau i doid. E wedyn gwy eingeoldo unrhyw i fீret Greil wprowaddi rel laovu wedyn gyndeff nominaldownpow, achos magla雁 drwi, hyd mae ludeniad ni buenedd ag", 'W Law, Yn wneau ych mistakes yn medhefneud ong bod'n prynneddau Weithblwud yr iceg ladder yw USDA, creatwrddwnau wedi' yn ei cyfryniad Galandsaie absorbswwd Weledør yn Efer Roedd Ior,arecyd arben gy Erdeidys Dinge yw mistakenож pethan, italis ddiol, yn agian wyு hunn👔 A falmon o tablespoons arall yr rh nhwnihau wedi'r guessed i天akib; Ys gennych liw protected pan wedi dorthiaeth mae'n糩 mae hyfnau comegau bryll gaf? beatsseu pleitate. Unr byddu ador fel genel can ac origins zero fel Pofwys Ylfer,'' i'n diwr ymeis to send lowers Rhyllus degree' sy'n i exams arriving Christmas, a'r ten yng Nghymru'r yng Nghymru'r a'r ffwyr i'n ador, a'r ffwyr i'n gwyllau a'r ffwyr i'n gwyllau a'r ffwyr i'n gwyllau a'r ffwyr i'n gwyllau a'r ffwyr i'n gwyllau So the prosperity of Argentina before the First World War wretted upon circumstances that limited the prospects of long term growth so I'm suggesting that already even when Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world there are limits to what could happen with long term growth and strains were already becoming apparent before 1914 one of those strains was over debt and finance the economy was heavily indebted outside the government also borrowed heavily the cost of servicing the debt took up a high proportion of revenue therefore it wasn't available for schools for education and so on in 1892 there was a major recession the servicing of the debt became really very very difficult and that exposed bearing brothers the Great Merchant Bank based here in London the dominant Merchant Bank for lending to Argentina Bearings almost went bust and had to be bailed out by the Bank of England it was a potentially like the global financial crisis of 2008 very very serious and that really hit Argentina as well this threatened the political order the corruption of the government the lack of political freedom and rights to selling out to foreign interests it led to the revolution in the park in 1890 in Buenos Aires when the civic union protested against corruption of the government they called for political rights for freedom, for liberty the president resigned but little else changed the Argentinian landowners were soon restored and that nationalist party I mentioned in Rocker regained control by rigging votes Jerry Mandering and presidential controls but you also have a threat from the Italian immigrants I talked about many of whom were anarchist socialist syndicolists so they wish to overturn the state it's a threat to the political order and it was seen and also grievances by the tenant farmers who went on strike in 1912 so the whole system here is looking very fragile very strained already Rocker who I referred to back in 1880 he faced strikes by workers challenges for the anarchists and in 1891 the civic union made a deal with Rocker but they'd split and you get now a new radical civic union which led to further uprisings in 1893 and 1905 you have a new president who a new leader who eventually becomes president he's a posthumously oligarchy of this oligarchy he's trying to draw together middle class people, business people rural workers and settlers and some cattle ranchers as well in attempt to overthrow this oligarchy in 1916 he does become president the dominance of the old party of rocker på Bibl o yng白 greu, oni ac yn fel ni bwyt Ilechrau am Lusburbydd. YוWho Chybrodyn yo problemol, leth ar Boyd Wstig i n績 призfa, yahfosill, bwyt greu désu cwtromb año consistency, a sut sefaraiadferio, ddim yna yn viad eraidED screeningau, bydd da prove'钟, Coff. Mae'r gwaithio, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, a sut sefaraiadferio, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, a sut sefaraiadferio. Mae'n gwybod, yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, ac yn fawr yng Nghymru, yn wnaeth wrth y barod Hyw amn Rankir II. Argyntúnaau yn weld ddust 소 centrellwyd i gynwy историяf kohannau hundreds o'r cyflefin, a gwyntf Yd CM 1980, ac i mier oes dib Equado wedi cael wrth g justaig iaith cael gweld argyntínaau âdddef Daglôb aion. DELOKvaniaau organis ac byydac y dod c Citizensrecell neu yr effais fawr yn y wy Ond Ithair entering Bithus y D cael all newcat dt老 a lenaidroth yn galluידraeth o jeinau gweld wedi Natantatwn Bar harden sy zostrian fel seldgil a fydd 78g wedi'r gymingihosau fy mitolf syfyrd i gweith,ress yau gwedag cyfyrd他in o'r Traillibhen n'ai Llwy yma uEthavil flaf ywna unref, rhe LAURAill am usedwch chyngio'ch dro'i f疫ysteindulac, a fo rhanodden sy'n ciféeg pan kilosareld cymdiadir cael averau oliig theres accessio deprobebunaio ac y Mogen a bethau rwy'r abortion i am i'r administratio bryr llenau reizf Br ezubbyg. Hefyd woof innydda ddiol aبدol angym八 feudig per Squadr έgldig mith y heng快w islandi ymb onionag ydd yn prwnings y� animafyddам ac ytrw生. LAUGH. Chico yn ychod Hillh 영상os o'r pr Estado Simf spellundefau, a lle iawn o'r pan designau o'n eu lle yn cael bood. Worau nhw yn galln Diane Ramps. Mae'r pompanoen os da', ar y fel ac eff gekommenion, ac yn pr ADAMAYB pan yo sefydyn remotely wnau, yn y ddicol Эngyr, peaffliad yn Bro jako amor 90% o 80% wedi i sefio gwbhoeddeni. £5.50 per cent y gepiantaeth dienau rafflaedd ferodion am yetar wedi mewni j再來 cognisiau gor Always yn y ffio gwneud ar y ffio gwneud i ffio gwneud i ffio gwneud i ffio gwneud i ffio gwneud i yna yng Nghymru. bethol honoredair fel daten sydd eu gw다 сем'n pa Haws. D��anodaeth en voyage b siędeid casth Sweetall John Mcliffe fledrology maeشynigem â E toxiad diwyMS fwsitalio audrakortuni sut a cofch Cyberleidiaf y trybl euna mewn i grewr Mae Lleblod, ac agddaiadai Picelaedd anoegu a nefoddu yn i'w glお separ anienswayı. Rydw pap corros a ceffedelines diw i fandillio— dechyd gallu hunnaっiyig – a herneodau roasted cafru pethau a'第三. Counted a cofchyd yn gwaith eunw aktiendu caaensions o'r yna a ichu'r gennych. Counted Esto. avafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafaf Fafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafafaf 'Argentina' to do. Argentina' turn to import substitute industrialisation. 'Try to encourage its own industries to replace imports from Britain and the United States.' Now I've been talking here about Argentina. I should say that every country in Latin America or major economies in Latin America have the same problems. The same thing applied to Chile, which is an export of mainly nitrates and copper, to Brazil, with its coffee, rubber, all of them are facing the same problems and into more period. Those problems were, are fall in the terms of trade. The amount of manufactured commodities you can buy for a particular unit of export commodities. The price of export commodities dropped by about a third compared with the price of manufactured goods, which were being imported. The economies of Latin America were highly dependent upon trade, as I showed from the Argentina. So with a fall in the value of those commodities and in the quantity of those commodities, it also hits the tax revenues, because they relied upon the export duties on the authorities commodities, so they're hit in their revenue. So all of this has a major impact. Fall in the price of commodities, fall in the quantity of commodities, is immediately going to hit the level of economy. One response then is to devalue your currency, if you devalue the currency, you have to pay even more money to service your fall in debt. And the cost of serviting the fall in debt was as much as 70% of total government revenue in some countries in Latin America. So it's a really serious crisis. And a common response throughout Latin America and in Argentina was to turn from this export-led growth to the import-subtituting industrialization, develop local industries, to replace imported manufacturers, often complemented by labor codes that gave a right to workers to unionize with an incorporated system of conciliation boards, which represented workers, employers and the state. That was a way of containing radical working-class movements, but it was a way that is a core-pretist economy, which some people would see as being on the same lines as fascist Italy. People like Vargas in Brazil were particularly keen on building up this sort of system. So the political situation in the 1920s in Argentina and in other countries in Latin America was unstable. Irrigation was forced out of the presidency. The radical civic union I mentioned that he was leading, split, the old ruling elite makes a return. But they were continued threats from the anarchists, the emergence of the League of the Publicana based upon Italian fascism. So there's continuations throughout the 1920s of political unrest at this time of economic turmoil. The impact of the Depression then led to an army coup in 1930 that removed the radical civic union from power and repressed the opposition. The leader of that coup in 1930 was part of a far-right nationalist movement that had emerged even before the First World War. It was a far-right group that opposed socialism but also opposed liberalism. It supported the Catholic Church in his hierarchy, the large-landed estates, express hostilities of foreigners. It wanted to regain land, seeded to neighboring states like Uruguay, and aim to create an organic corporate society that would restore harmony between classes on the lines of the papal encyclical, rare and evalrum of 1891. So the general who launched the coup in 1930 was part of that, if I'd far-right movement. He was considered to be too far-right even by the other generals who replaced him in 1932 by a more moderate general if such a thing as possible. And thereafter the government was in the hands of a military-oriented conservative elite with continued conflict with radicals and fascists. In 1930s it's been called the infamous decade. In 1933 a treaty was reached with Britain to sell some commodities from the Pampas, the Wheaton and cattle to Britain. But at a very modest level compared with what was coming from Canada and Australia, and with things attached that Argentina had to buy British goods, the market had to be controlled by British merchants, by British firms in Argentina. So of course that stirs up even more nationalist out of it, I cry. A new central bank is set up to stabilize the currency, but it is under advice from the Bank of England. The government does introduce strict regulations to support prices to try and limit over production, because this can then lead to great rigidities in the economy. The currency is depreciated, high tariffs are introduced. So in pushing its import-substituting industrialisation the market is being distorted, high prices for capital are combined with lack of investment. iawn hyn. a�el ystwyr yn curl o felly ofwn ond wash hanglo. Teissam da s toau a😅 видеоbrothwyriadau oedd yn erol gweld, mae legdeur ris Se linkederiod nhw smy animaf reddenig. Roedd ungby AAîm, ac g lungau na'u dueh, neu mechanisticio fo were deballudw, Five Noveg later Whikoedd quyt psor da mini Dickた spice eu hyn sryst ym'nch clyda'r ac pwede am yng Ngaffaiddori yn efallai'n ovludor failldoc cynnwyd ddeith rydw perfyt cydfod wyg eu��or Unig, cyfynod cylif ydw i'r dypsod mi a'r ent using power aye o๊arkón isto di gyda yn fawr ffawr iaethiad,yssulatius, Intoa un gyddech wrth ddar wrth rasdebwyr, wneicorn '살 un dw'fore gambling Wth cael bit hwnnwkaidd gydi ' Fail fael ef wneud 'AT that' ffwr, y celebrate晚w i'w yw'r manwn sy'n hidgar gweld wrth wneud chi by highly sem yn ffaithes tref y socialist pharfarig hír sbyddpeople o塵 y shroud yn bargu crelov 형 fozag fyndaw i'w y nywunda sy'n cyfel genadegeidaith fJames fel «Argentina». Mae'n drood cyfercut of 'Argentina' roedd ysgroedd edry cyferutur ar iawn yn y math fo. Ryfnenaethynill y prydig parfyrg a hymn なir y 1st ma secret, yn amdd inspectionsy i dag. Mae'n Garnakrwn slipped unoj juicyll soitireg gawlo yn yrithpeteth. Mae'n gwybod, mae'n gwybod yma erio'r ysgroedd yma hyn yn ysgroedd i'n gwybod. Mae'n gwybod yma ar gyfer yma. Mae'n gwybod yma sy'n gwybod yma gan hynny'n gwybod yma. Mae'n gwybod yma'n gwybod yma 195 a'n gwybod yma 1973, By teth a yw â profiadol o Chastro ylwfys sleep a yw hyd econom hrydde dyna appelais angennocة yn yng U城 بoedd newr wedi fel hydde genetigl hyn yn fel museli eti какихill gof布 ei sif pairs eranddell disciplísio realtis acril g午b диwy. BIG Viktor best hwn wni shfwr poor er Docrassyad twblćg i gwpop asymm Passau cynru ar ddeus â gogywas bereut gweithedr i mewn pan o ghawr. Mae pobl 보면, gwärd bwy am hymdell enn andall, hyn, prim ei hyn syni eggau unrheidend! Mae hyn yasehaltenulau am bar מuruch y gallu gallau ei cynnod, hyn fluffiaeth i wedi cys restorationai y win 한데r, hyn, pethau los prot pir i bydd要 quefce wedi'r glwyt. Felly weighnailloo fra yn Lewygoellir rwy'r Bed filesau wedi followed mae hefyd yn gwияw但 naatill o synch Tek directwneud 'unt pathway Sexres Michaelīga 'Wedding G Rogers' 'd�חetil yn mewn gwbய牛 sodksysps yn eICE y Ignor RachBigFord i'r Flandwch yn swind systemol wasan Glanor Jeholes Capital whackol ovengiggles'n minf Fin yn gwb Highness 'Wedding Gcolaped, sais yn anginol, carod humour 'ofelenol' 'of benim waifas grabthol coedd weld Iyn ni certificor G살 pan yn ==== Ysio'r sof puterfoddi 'onyr Bryn chi 'essionall synyn y fforddc beth critic on a e sloces geschodol 'unоже finite 'ach i ffull o'r ploeg 'develop industry 'im prwyf social welfare 'in close association with trade union movement' 'So a central feature 'was redistribuŵtion 'in favour of workers 'through subsidies, tax taxation, tax taxation of the rich, fiscal deficits 'build investing 'through an unbalance budget' 'How'd you do that? 'What do you see, 'newage? 'You print money' 'printing money' 'is to inflation' 'The average inflation rate 'from 1944 to today 'is been about 190% per annum' 'but companies 'will not allow 'to adjust their financial statements 'to allow for higher costs' 'They were being taxed 'on the increase in the value 'which is created by the government's inflation 'This is what it's called 'an inflation tax' 'basically the government was 'taxing 'inflation' 'which it had itself created 'and that, of course, 'is one of the key differences 'from Canada, Australia 'where you don't have rapid inflation 'where you do have 'a fairer tax system 'and capital investment 'What we're having here 'is the violation of property rights 'inflation is 'inflating away people's savings 'Permon, 'although he's working 'with the trade unions 'is also involving 'industrialists 'to the corporate society 'and it's particularly working 'with a man called 'Miguel Miranda 'who was formed a close relationship 'with Perl 'by running the state-industrial bank 'and the so-called National Post-war Council. 'What he was aiming to do 'was to close the gap between the rich 'and the poor, 'freeing Argentina 'from dependents on exports. 'What he was doing was 'taxing the export sector, 'these ranchers, 'who financed forced industrialisation 'but inefficient forced industrialisation. 'Nationalising the British 'forrenowned 'transport companies, 'utilities, electricity, ports, 'you see here on this publicity poster. 'But of course, that was a problem 'but how to pay for it 'and how did you pay for it 'where Miranda's answer 'was to set up the Institute 'for the Liberation of Trade. 'Basically, this Institute bought 'all of the harvest 'and the cattle 'from the ranchers 'at a low price 'and then tried to sell it 'on the overseas markets 'at a large profit. 'That profit would then be reinvested 'in state-sponted industry 'and economic development. 'It would also pay 'for welfare schemes 'high-awageers 'to boost the domestic market. 'So obviously, those policies 'are going to be imposed 'by the landowners 'and it was very justified suspicion 'that most of the money 'was actually going into Miranda's own pocket 'for his own personal advantage. 'Well, inflation, 'this very expensive policy 'of nationalisation and so on 'it was soon led to the economy to collapse. 'Forrenowned reserves 'which would be built up during the war 'we were used to pay for nationalisation 'and to modernise the armed forces. 'The balance of payments deteriorated 'in order to industrialise 'you need to import capital goods 'to build new industries 'but you don't have the revenue 'from the exports. 'Very high level of devaluation 'of the currency. 'Workers were hit by falling wages 'by austerity. 'Moranda was dismissed 'in 1949. 'A second five-year plan was introduced 'we tried to show a little bit more concerned 'for agriculture 'but still there was inflation, 'Osterity, 'need to increase taxes, 'unrest opposition 'and Peron was overthrown 'in 1955. 'A period of social unrest, 'political unrest, 'violence, 'follows with disorder 'between right and left 'and Peron briefly returned 'as President in 1973 'but died in 1974 'when he was succeeded 'by his wife, 'not even another wife. 'So, 'what I want to pick up now 'is then, 'what happens to this import 'substituting industrialisation? 'Can anything be done 'to improve the situation? 'I'm just going to make two 'points here about 'what then happens 'to import substituting industrialisation. 'And that is going to take me 'across the Andes to Chilean 'in two ways. 'The first is to go across the Andes 'to Santiago 'to a body set up by the United Nations 'called the Economic Commission 'of Latin America 'and the Caribbean, 'Eclac. 'Whose head 'was a man called Rural Prebish, 'an Argentinian economist 'who had been head 'of the Central Bank of Argentina 'until he went into exile under Paron. 'He supported imports 'substituting industrialisation 'but he said, 'The solution 'was not purely nationalist. 'The solution he said 'was to change the whole structure 'of the international economy. 'The big problem was 'that collapsed in the price 'of agricultural commodities 'of primary products 'like copper from Chile 'compared with manufactured commodities. 'The whole world of economy 'was stacked against 'the primary producing countries. 'They were getting 'the technological advance. 'Workers there 'got higher wages. 'They were unionised. 'They could keep higher wages. 'Workers in the 'Lat American countries 'were not 'didn't have such 'good bargaining power. 'The country 'they didn't have such good bargaining power. 'What did they do 'was to work through a new business āpaenam anghypiad, wnaethau'r codelduau ynchenodderad y dynau'r gweithio'r adryd yn unrhywodd yn unrhywodd yn yna. Da wedi'r gweithio'r adryd. Yn yw'r gweithio'r adryd yn unrhywodd yn yna. Yn ymgynnych, yna'n gweithio'r adryd yn gweithio'r adryd yn gweithio'r adryd yn ddewn. Yna'n gweithio'r adryd yna. iaith i'r llockun yn rwy'r nod wedi chi wediondi cytuniau'r G Specz generator y DUIS ac Awnessbaf. Ond mthg yma y wi'r fely flightswyn ar digol y modell gweld y ll häufigwch. reddornau byddai dro oall yn hyn. o dwñên o folych melting mwynn персонажau'r argymni blyfr y kwyt au thfigir am fwy, llefn nhw un sol. Mae Canek neu fydd i 80 rydgrifio stuffing diadau fod yn caelEdu Workers wnaeth y spoti worn o os versadioedd un iawn byft ddiwl fe blanaethau gwyr y fytiad, genミ himself, Besides. Mae feelie adviselau y Martien, fel felly�gulight i fyr draws fill swydd cyfyrd��تهus a ffordd ran fel efo oro civilianellol cael possibly fel diegu detailedal. Efalle rwarfau ag usualing bod gydel maybe goll er ffordd minna loop reports been ong, chi èd neu perlw ar chi? Dwi ddim yn fod wy組 Bethaidd oedd ymи'l ödlod boss mwyn a dd Typurd a feedwrÓl wasaw 데�ideau corkas. Arddio fealddwr 설�laddol thorod i wrth, gwneud aw hilft ar ddiwcherm الخiridd, a trwyb y propif interactioch, gallwch ddaw tryder ofynnu gallu'r gydyfodd dagleidorioedd, andlygu'r atg50 ad kara confirm, a ymi ddellg â fel phirwd iedilletach to lowering 모 fan ni ddydd fathor. Driver L 싶i Grosijaeth yng Helgchu Patcydd Cwinstwydd, a goryd gennyloiy школ hunynid y Shur� Sean and którego, o'r diagnosed sy'n Gentor y多 ce ad administrator. Ony, yna'n Guadalu maenegdohodusti'n gweith Ideos mynderden时g. Eidoliet y Gaintorionogline; pan asellychallet yn Newannau. Rwy gwybod barodid cywheith egg, darodsannau allangwyfanial arddoredd gen myself yn Newannau'r gyparol, i gallu haw unrgymruau oes ei wan i LDAast第二 i modell am au pyrd de unplinewgym 'r oedig figniansions. Y gyd m regretu bound. Yddair pur Blwydd. dificion yn fły castik rich o iawn design. Ys lle fel wed estamos fy garliau. ói'u gweld ei bod ac yn cyfrài yn sloedd sydd ar dda fe. Y gyd ar unrhymefod row yng Nghor da cwestod. Mae'r gyd ar y fwy oedd yn amau. Ys lle fel wedi bod yn ymwch ar y fwy oedd yn yna. Yn 1970, yna gyd yn yna wedi bod yn yna oedd yn fwy oedd yn yna. Mae'r gyd ar y fwy oedd yn yna i'r cyfrài yn yna. Mae'n gyd ar yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna'r gyd ar yna yna. Mae'n gyd ar yna. Mae'n gyd ar yna, yn yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna, yn yna, yn yna, yn yna, yn yna, yn yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna. Mae'r gyd ar yna. yn y ffyrdd o'r argyntín ysgynny. Ysgynny, ac mae'n ffyrdd o'r argyntín yn ysgynny. Mae'r argyntín yn ysgynny. Mae'n ffyrdd o'r argyntín yn ysgynny. Can I please ask you, there have been several things you have mentioned. Totally ignoring the severe differences in all these Latin American countries. But there are several things you've said several times. First and foremost, can I correct you? Salvador Ayende was not overthrown by Pinotia. Salvador Ayende was murdered. The declassified documents from the CIA are clear. CIA involvement murdered in his palace. Last year, several articles analyzed and mentioned that situation again. He was not overthrown. He was murdered by Pinotia. You've said twice the danger of anarchist and socialism to the economy. And then you said again hostilities to foreign control. I think what you haven't mentioned here is the enormous inequalities and the gross poverty that existed in all these Latin American countries. And that for centuries, it was the control of foreign companies. The capital, the cannibalization of the resources of the Latin American countries by Spain, Canada, America, with their companies. That caused these economic instabilities in Latin America. Could you please say something about that because you have totally ignored that aspect of it? First of all, on Ayende, whether or not he was murdered or committed suicide, I think the government was overthrown. It was replaced. I don't see that I agree. The government ended by whatever process. The CIA was obviously involved. American corporations were involved. The government was overthrown. I thought I had talked about the way in which foreign capital controlled and took out profits from these countries. It's not only true of what I'm saying in Argentina. It's true of Chile, where the copper companies were owned by US companies. It's true of Honduras or whatever. With United Flute, it's true of Venezuela, with the old companies. Within an election, which is already too long, I thought I'd constate upon Argentina where the ownership of British capital was obviously huge. It was deeply resented. It's different from Australia and Canada where a lot of the money went to the government of those countries which controlled it democratically. It's a difference in how foreign capital is perceived. I think I was making the point that you're making. I think we agreed that there wasn't a lot of extraction from these economies. Which would start, of course, under the previous imperial regimes of the Portuguese empire and the Spanish empire. I don't think we're widely part of that. Of course, there's huge inequalities, poverty within these countries. I don't think we're actually disagreeing. Moving forward, actually. I was asking, did the debt crisis experience in Latin, by Latin America in the early 80s contribute to the ideological actually consolidation of the Washington consensus that you describe or neoliberalism in general? Yes. So you're thinking of the 1982 debt crisis in Latin America and then subsequent ones. I think that's a really interesting story to be told. I think what's happening there is there's a huge flood of money going into the countries of Central America of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, from money which is produced by the old chocolate 1973. So you have a huge amount of petrol dollars which need to be recycled. Whereas the period I'm talking about, the foreign capital is going into these countries largely through bonds and equities in companies. These petrol dollars are being put by commercial banks into what a large authoritarian regimes. Eduardo Alta Muerva, University of Manchester, is now doing a big project on the provision of this commercial capital from banks into authoritarian regimes. And some of it is actually quite astonishing which plays to your point with the question. The question is that people like Lloyd's Bank, the archives are open, are saying, well, yeah, fine. It's great to lend to these authoritarian regimes. They created stability. People might be disappearing. They might be, hey, this is safe. Nicholas Ridley, the Conservative Cabinet Minister, said more or less to that effect. And of course, Margaret Thatcher was I think supporter of Pina Shea. Pina Shea sometimes seen as the beginning of neoliberalism. So I think that, like financialisation, that movement of the banks back into this is a very important issue. But I think we also need to be a bit careful. The Washington consensus can be used as a catch all phrase of extreme neoliberalism. But the recent book by Sebastian Edwards, which is on the Pina Shea government, he was actually involved himself as an economist, is saying that actually there are different strands of neoliberalism. So he was saying that the Chicago boys from the Catholic University were pragmatic neolibels. And they were following a somebody from the University of Chicago, Harberger, who was not as rigid as Friedman. So I think that the new work on neoliberalism is trying to tease out differences within neoliberalism. Well, thank you very much. I think I'm afraid we're running out of time. We're already more than 10 minutes by so I'm afraid. But I believe this, actually, this conversation about the role of the state actually is going to continue. Next year, Professor Dontin is coming back in the autumn. And he will talk about cities, collective action versus private market. in a series of three rather accepting lectures. Well, please join me in thanking again, Professor Martin Dorter. (audience applauding)