What Trevor Lawrence's rise can teach us about NFL quarterbacks

Welcome to the athletic football show brought to you by the US bank smartly visa signature card. I'm Robert Mayes. Typically on these Thursday midweek shows, we like to have an outside guest on, but the conversation that we're having today, I couldn't have it with anybody that is not Derek Lassen. We're going to talk about Trevor Lawrence today, but we're going to talk about Trevor Lawrence in the broader scope of the NFL. We're going to talk about what Trevor Lawrence is rise this year, and even going back into the second half of last year, can teach us about quarterbacks. Can teach us about how sensitive they are to their surroundings. Can teach us about why we should be patient with some of these guys. Can teach us why it's worth hanging on to certain priors you might have. Even if in the moment, it sounds crazy to do so. There is a lot that I think Trevor points to in how we talk about think about and consider quarterbacks in the NFL in 2026. And so that's what me and Derek did today. We use Trevor to have a very wide ranging discussion about the quarterback position in the modern NFL. Let's get to that conversation right now. After we had Bill Barnwell on for the midweek show last week, I declared myself retired from quarterback discourse for 2026. And then I willingly decided we were going to have more of it today, because I do think there's a really compelling conversation to be had about what we've seen from some guys at the position this year. And more importantly, how we can use that as a jumping off point to talk about the position more broadly. And so I'm excited to dig into this. And I'm specifically excited to dig into this with you, because I think you're a notable person to be on the other end of this conversation for a few different reasons. There's no running from quarterback discourse. Even done this long enough that there's no, there's no getting away from it. Even if you want to, like you said, something in the back of your mind creeps up and you're like, but what if I did talk about the quarterbacks? And so, yeah, I think when you pitched this to me, I was really excited about it. And so I think this is going to be a really good one. I did my video about this. The replay brew social videos that we're doing. If you guys have not seen them, they're on our Instagram account, they're on our Twitter account. Scott, our social media producer meets me for coffee in the mornings. And then we just walk back to the studio. And I just kind of spout off about whatever's on my mind that week. And it's about a three minute video. But when I finished that three minute video, I was like, there's so many more things we could talk about with this subject specifically. And so I just decided, whatever, it's my show. We're doing a full podcast about it because I think there's so much other stuff that we can hit that you just don't have time to explore in a short video like that. And the crux of it is this. I think the Trevor Lawrence is the perfect entry point into this conversation and the conversation being we know more, we know less about quarterbacks than we like to admit. And quarterbacks are more sensitive to their surroundings than we like to admit. Trevor Lawrence looks like a MVP candidate this year. Trevor Lawrence is playing at an incredible clip. He looks so good, so confident. We've hit on that in a bunch of different shows. I want to read to you a couple quotes about Trevor Lawrence from NFL coaches and executives from the 2025 Mike Sandole quarterback tears. I always thought Lawrence was a unique talent from a body type perspective. So athletic for a guy that tall and the way he played at Clemson was outstanding. Another head coach said, but when I watched him this year, 2024, the instinct wasn't as high there. He looked hesitant. He had some ugly tape. Here's another one from a former GM. He hasn't proved that he can take the team up a level or make the team play better than they are. I definitely think Liam Cohen can help him there if he is able to be helped. This idea of we see some flashes from a really talented player, but there's just something missing. It comes up so often when we have these big talented guys that fall short in terms of their own production or team success for one reason or another. These are the same quotes that you hear about Justin Herbert right now. These are some of the same quotes. I want to go back and read this one because I think this one is also particularly tallie. This is from the 2015 quarterback tears. Okay. No doubt he's a tier two and I love him, but something is missing. Stafford could be like Aaron Rogers if he had the burning passion and if he had Mike McCarthy from day one, because he's talented like that and quick with the ball. But you look at the look on Stafford's face before the game and then you look at the look on Rogers face or Big Benz or Lux or especially Drew Breezes. Holy shit, you look at Matthew Stafford's eyes and it's like a gym class. It's like I hope we win. I think we're pretty good as opposed to I'm going to rip your throat out. That is the most like you can ascribe whatever you want to a quarterback when they're winning or when they're losing. Doing the like not like Rogers didn't have passion at the time or whatever that Mike McCarthy wasn't good at the time, but like that is a really funny looking at where all of those pieces and players are now. Like it's just it's kind of ridiculous. And I read these because I think it's a good place to start when it comes to how we used to talk about certain quarterbacks that we no longer talk about that way. In that quarterback tears article that I quoted from about Trevor Lawrence, which came out last summer. Okay. Last July July 2025. In that exercise, Trevor Lawrence was quarterback 18 in that ranking. He was behind two at quarterback 17. Baker was at quarterback 11 insane. And I don't I'm not even saying this to shit on the people that are doing that exercise and the people that Mike is talking to. I just think we have really short memories when it comes to how much this stuff vacillates for most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. I think there are guys who are immune from this to a degree. If you look at the numbers over the last five to seven years, my homes in Josh Allen, even if the circumstances have never really been bad for them, they've been different. The circumstances have changed over a six year period, whether those are structural within the offense, like they are for Josh Allen, whether it's the talent they're surrounded with like it is with Patrick my homes. And every single year, those guys are at like 0.08, 0.10 EPA per dropback or better, really high success rates, like they are still good no matter what. I would kind of include Joe burrow in this conversation, which is a slightly different hallway that we can go down if we want to. But those three guys kind of sit alone, even Lamar, Lamar's numbers year after year, he has taken some dips. But so you look at my homes, Allen, and kind of burrow after that, everyone else is viable to have these sort of vacillations from year to year based on the circumstances we're playing with or they're playing in. And I think there's just so much to consider there with how we talk about guys, how certainly we talk about guys, how much grace we give guys all of that. But is that kind of lay out the broad strokes of what I want to dig into here and use Trevor as a jumping off point? What about this specifically do you find most interesting? I actually think that there are a couple of different ways that we can go about it. I do think one of them, and I think this actually we can stick on Trevor. And I think this is maybe a particular point that is less like general, but more specific to a handful of guys. I do think with some guys like Trevor Lawrence, and I think that this was absolutely true of Caleb, there is like a weird people wanting to be anti hype of when we have these unbelievable talents, the guys who are first overall picks have been the first overall pick for years coming into it and actually do even young staffer actually falls into this people knew he was going to be the first round pick for a long time, because it's like 17. Yes, like it was it was a prophecy. And for all those guys where it feels like it was just always going to be from day one, Andrew Luck is a little bit of this. There is kind of this like until they show that they are truly the best in the league, there is always this like the expectations for them are just they get warped. And like I think that was absolutely true of Trevor Lawrence, obviously Caleb as a rookie. And I think that that always extends especially to their rookie seasons where if these guys are not immediately the savior, it's like, oh, well, then what was the point? This guy doesn't have it. It's never going to come along. And that's always exacerbated by if anybody else in the class looks good, obviously for Caleb Williams, like Jayden Daniels looks good that year for Trevor Lawrence Mac Jones looks good that year. But and I think what you said actually about the quote about Trevor Lawrence where the GM or coach you're whoever it was was like, man, he played this way at Clemson yada yada yada. We allow ourselves to forget the talent of some of these players because the circumstances wear down on them for a year or two. And it's like, oh, they've got a couple of bad habits now. And we forget that what they were in college, you know, sometimes that can be weird circumstances you're playing with super talented people. But that talent is there. Like those guys are the first overall pick for a reason or top five picks or whatever for a reason. And you can get to places where offensive line gets better. They find a coach that they love. They go through some of the ups and downs and learning different styles, which that I want to talk about too, like quarterbacks having to learn different styles of winning. It finally comes along and you're like, oh, yeah, this guy was always this talented and was just not put in very good circumstances for the first, you know, in Trevor Lawrence's case, the first four years of his career, five years. The circumstances point, we can dig in a Trevor specifically in a second. I think I want to sit with that before we can dig into the rest of the conversation. I think you can draw some lines, even if those lines move a little bit from a year to year between the top top guys and the rest of them. If you use quarterback tears as an example, for the most part, there are four to five guys in tier one every single go year, my homes, Alan, Burrow are pretty much always in there. And then you have a couple guys that sneak in and out for whatever reason, right? We just talked about Lamar, Stafford's been in there a little bit, Rogers at the end of his career after that. So that tier is anywhere from three to five guys in a given year. tier two is usually from like quarter back six to quarter back 15. And that feels right, right? And so I think that feels correct. What I want to say to that, and actually this is maybe like a really dumb guy take, but all of those the elite quarterbacks that you just listed, Joe Burrow's Lamar Jackson's, the guys at the tippy top, Matthew Stafford, I think, can fall into this category a lot of the times. The quarterbacks where we are putting them on a pedestal as truly elite, and not that they aren't sensitive to their surroundings on some level. But those guys always inarguably feel like the best or second best player on their offense. Like Joe Burrow, obviously, Jamar Chase is on that on that offense as well. But then I think you get into the tier two guys where it's like they are clearly good in helping the offense, but they are just a lot of other really good pieces around them. I think Jared Goff is this. Dak Prescott, I think to a degree is this like I think in my opinion, like Tyler Smith is probably the best player on that offense. Dak CD and Pickens are all like kind of in the same category, but again, that doesn't make it clear that that Prescott is like that level of guy. And so I think like that actually does go to your point of like that's why six to 15 can kind of feel like it vacillates because depending on who those other pieces are that would normally be like in the same tiers, the quarterback or above them are slightly below them. That's why stuff feels like it changes all the time for those guys. And I think when you see all of the movement in that group from six to let's even call it like 18 if you're going to throw a Trevor Lawrence in there as quarterback 18 from last year's version of the sex or size. I think those are that there is so much movement among that group. And there is so much uncertainty and confusion and almost dissonance when we talk about and think about those quarterbacks because that group is just so much more sensitive to everything that's happening around them. So in each given year based on the coaching injuries, the support system in terms of the personnel around them, you can go from being quarterback 18 to quarterback eight back down to quarterback 15. And it seems completely crazy. And it seems like we don't really know anything, but that's partially because we don't, but it's also just because I think this group of quarterbacks is just particularly volatile based on what's going on around them. And I think part of that. I was trying to think about this as to why it seems like guys are more sensitive to their surroundings than they might have been in previous areas of the NFL because it does kind of feel that way, right? Like based on who your coaches, it can just swing so wildly Baker Mayfield on the other side of the Trevor Lawrence thing. It's a perfect example of this. Like when Baker Mayfield had Liam Cohen, he was quarterback 11. What does Baker Mayfield look like now? It's not quarterback 11 might be double that. It's a double that number. And I think part of the reason for that is that the offense is right now because of how hard it is to play against modern defenses have to do so much of the heavy lifting for pretty much every every every single quarterback that's not one of those guys that if there are changes in the quality of that support system, you're going to notice it. Like you're just going to see the huge swings because the support system is so important for pretty much every single quarterback. And honestly, it's not even pretty much every single quarterback anymore. Think about what the chiefs are doing right now. The chiefs came into this season and acknowledged in what their plans have looked like that even we with Patrick Mahomes cannot play the way we used to, which was the most quarterback the chiefs and the bangles played the most quarterback centric offenses in football. And the chiefs came to a conclusion after last season saying even with Patrick Mahomes, we can no longer play this way. So if the chiefs are thinking that way, how important is the infrastructure and support system to all of the other quarterbacks in the NFL that aren't Patrick Mahomes? I would say incredibly important. It's incredibly important. I'm glad you bring up the defense this thing. I do think just with some of the two high stuff and how good teams have gotten with blitzes and some of their simulated pressures and creepers and all that stuff. I do just think that quarterback in a lot of ways feels harder to play now. Did it did us recently as like five years ago? And I think you have that coupled with like there are a lot of starters in the league and a lot of these guys that we're talking about where it feels like there's some vacillations to year to year that are like under 30 years old where it's like you don't I don't think you fully crystallize mentally a lot of the time until you hit around 30 and a lot of these guys where it feels like you can have these ups and downs or they are sensitive to stuff like a Trevor Lawrence. So I think is like 27 years old. Yeah, like those guys are probably going to be a little bit more sensitive to that guys like Drake May Caleb Williams, these younger players, they're going to be more sensitive to that because I do think another thing that I wanted to talk about is that save for rare cases and it's actually funny to bring up my homes because even he has had to do it. Save for rare cases. Guys need to go through multiple iterations of themselves before they feel like immovable and unstoppable. Like most of these guys have to do that. Stafford early in his career was a chuck it sort of quarterback and then he has the Jim Bob Cruder era where it's like it's all check downs and they've already in the garage. It was the worst. I hated it that I hate so much. Even as someone who was like I was not like super high on Stafford on the time I'm not going to lie about that but even when I was like the style of quarterback he is just didn't make sense that they were doing that but I do think like in the long term it probably served him in some way learning how to live that way and then he gets the Darryl Bevel and Sean McVeigh years where it's a little bit more under center. It's like kind of controlled. It's some blend of the two. Lamar Jackson obviously comes on to the scene and he's incredible as an MVP but that was so specific and then he really needs to get into the Todd Monkin offense and become something new where it's like okay now he does feel a little bit less sensitive to this stuff. He's unstoppable. Jared Goff being kind of Sean McVeigh's puppet early on in Los Angeles and then he gets to Detroit and it's like if he doesn't take more ownership of the offense he's not going to be a good enough quarterback and so he has to go through that. The last one I'll bring up Josh Allen being a when he got into the league he was just kind of a wild horse and then his second year he really did learn to throw the one to ten yard area pretty well but it was still for that year and then the handful of years after that was Stefan Diggs high volume passing offense we're dropping back we're throwing it all over the yard and then the last two or three years it's been like we need to slow down the heartbeat of the offense we're gonna run the ball we're gonna throw it down the field we're gonna protect things and now I think he's at the point where he can kind of weaponize both of those different worlds of quarterbacking and again all of these guys really didn't get to that point till they were 28 29 30 31 years old and so I do I think like going through multiple iterations learning how to beat everything that's why like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady year-to-year when they were in their 30s were always able to just like do whatever they needed to do to win a game and that's not everyone has to their to their 30 that's a long time to wait and it kind of gets into something I want to talk about with how long should we wait and when do we know because I do think there's something to point out there but you were talking about that I think the Josh Allen thing is it's worth circling back to even Josh Allen there are vacillations in the type of Josh Allen we get the quality was always at a certain level because of how special of a player Josh Allen was essentially from year three to right now there's been the quality has remained at a certain level but it's felt more volatile he's turned the ball over more his individual play has swung a little bit based on what he was being asked to do within the offense so if Josh Allen's play is going to swing a little bit based on what he's asking to do what do you think is going to happen with quarterbacks who are one or two steps down from Josh Allen which can still allow you to be a really really good quarterback in the NFL it's going to swing even more even if you're the seventh best quarterback in the league it's going to swing all the time like and again that's why like guys like that press god and Jared Gough and all these guys like can be in our very good quarterbacks but it is dependent on things kind of breaking the right way for you or you land in a perfect situation I mean like the fact that I think a perfect example for this Matt Ryan having what is one of the best quarterbacks seasons ever basically where for the majority of his career up to that was a very good quarterback but he was in that like seven to ten range like always like kind of flirting with probals pretty good had some really high highs but was never felt like dominant and then you get two years in the shantahand system you have a Hall of Fame wide receiver and a couple of other like really nice skill pieces to like put around that and all of a sudden like everything clicks into place where they're getting him to do some stuff that he wasn't comfortable with before with all the boot stuff and marrying that with some downfield passing element that like not every shantahand style of quarterback has always had and so you just get this beautiful marriage of that which this is kind of why I talked about Trevor Lawrence and their offense feeling like the 2016 Falcons potentially is like they are marrying a lot of those things where you're getting the value of the Liam Cohen under center can you just throw this dig route sort of offense we're going to scheme some stuff open on top of like you can foreign five man concept just like dropback intreverable find people he will throw outbreakers that are the quarterbacks can't get and you get this blend of like finding the stuff that he was always good at and then giving him six freebies a game that just like unlocks every and takes the load off at the quarterback a little bit. I'm kind of fast forward into this part of the conversation. I thought we might wrap up here, but you mentioned Matt Ryan. I think this is a good place to have any to do it. Before we dig into what I want to talk about, though, let's take our first quick break. All right, so the financial part of this is interesting to me, because I think that it's, it warrants a conversation, right? Because if we can acknowledge that there is a gap between the top three fourish guys and the rest of the quarterbacks in terms of resilience, how steadfast they are dependent and independent of the circumstances and just overall quality. There's not a huge gap on how they're paid, okay? And so most of those guys are 55 million. They're bumping up against each other. My home's obviously got the most recent new deal, but they're still mostly clustered together. And this is where I, this is kind of where I've landed with this thought. There are currently 13 NFL quarterbacks that are making $50 million a year. When you're asking as part of this process, if you're having to pay Trevor Lawrence, you're having to pay Jordan Love and you're not sure that there's been some inconsistency. It's like, man, is this guy worth pay? I think the question that you have to ask yourself and the answer that matters most, could this player in the right circumstances be the MVP of the leak? Or at least put themselves in position where you have that season, where Dak Prescott in 2023. I think actually that's a perfect example too, where he didn't win it, but you've seen him a player like that where quarterback 7 to 12, however you want to put it, can reach those highs in the right scenarios. I mean, shit, this year the offense might be good enough where he can put up those sorts of numbers. And so he in a lot of ways feels like the cutoff in some ways for around what that tier is. I want to list off the guys that are making $55 million a year. They're currently 13 of them. Mahalms has most one VPs. Allen has an MVP. Lamar has an MVP. Stafford has an MVP. Joe Burrow. Yes. He's been up there. Numbers. Yes. No question. Dak, like you just said, 2023 MVP runner up. Jalen Hertz. Even if you're frustrated by Jalen Hertz, 2022 MVP runner up, he absolutely could be the MVP based if you put him in the right circumstances. Okay. Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. I think the answer for both of them is yes. When you look at what they have done, the level that they have played at, even if it's been frustrating at times and it can be a little bit volatile, I think the answer is definitively yes for both of those players. I mean, Justin Herbert's second year through 5,000 yards. Like the answer for each of those guys is yes. Jared Goff. I think the answer is yes. Like if you look at some of the statistical seasons Jared Goff has had, he's drawn for like 4500 yards and 35 plus touchdowns. In an era where we have the aliens that are doing that plus some of the rushing, it's going to be hard to do. But historically, Jared Goff being the quarterback of a top five offense with this sort of passing numbers. Yes. Like if the lions were to win 14, 15 games, there's absolutely a world where Jared Goff would be able to win the MVP. He's the most specific case probably. Like the window for how it would have to happen. There's absolutely a world where the offense goes a certain way. And he throws 44 touchdowns in a season. And it's like, sure, if they win 13 games, yeah. Two more Trevor could be the MVP league this year. Based on the way that he's playing the way that offense looks. And the other one that same deal Brock party. So those are 12 of the guys. The only one who's making 50 million that I think it would be hard to say this about is probably Baker. And even Baker in 2024, if that team wins a shitload of games, he had the numbers to potentially get you there. But I do think he's kind of the outlier among this group. And I think of all these guys, that's the only contract where I look at it and say, I think that's a bad contract. All the other guys, I think I would give it to them in a heartbeat. And so I when I was trying to do this and I was like, all right, well, if they're not as good, is it worth paying them $55 million a year? And I think the answer is yes. Because if you have one of them and you can find the Liam Cohen, then the value of having a player like this, you're still not over paying when you're giving them $55 million a year. If they have the potential to have this sort of season, I totally agree with that. Because I think I think it's easy to look at the top three or four guys, whoever it's going to be and then comparing them to what Trevor is making, what Brock Pretty is making, what Jared Goff is making or whatever and being like, well, it's not that big of a difference. Like, do you really want to pay those other quarterbacks to that? But in my mind, it's more just like, I think the guys like Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are just always going to be underpaid. Like it's just the way the league works. Like the value that they give you, you are just getting a discount on it. Because those guys are so damn good. And realistically, I do think that like you're saying, if you can have one of those dozen quarterbacks in the NFL at a given time, that can have an MVP season. Sure, you need more things to go right for those guys in Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, the Hall of Famers, whatever. Not everybody's going to work with a Hall of Famer at a time. There's only like five in them in a league at a given time. And so if you don't have one of them, but you think that they can have those highs. And we're seeing it like you said, with half of these guys, that press got Trevor and Brock and maybe Jared Goff might do it this year. All might be in the running. And so like, I do think that those guys are all like really good cases for what we're laying out. I also think we don't just talk a lot about this because it's not totally relevant, but I think it's worth mentioning. I also think that's why the middle-class Reclamation quarterback contract over the last few years is so valuable because you're paying 60% of this premium. But I think you can make an argument that Sam Darnold is closer to this group than this group is to Patrick Mahomes. Yes. Yeah, Patrick, the three or four guys at the top are like such an untouchable fix everything all the time that it's you're just not going to get that. Whereas like with Sam Darnold, when you can allocate some other resources to pay for the Marcus Lawrence on defense and stuff like that, you can get them to like the thing, Sam Darnold, I don't think is ever going to be able to lead an offense that is top three in offensive, DVO air, whatever, and they're the best in the league. And he's going for MVPs, but I think that you can get them to the point where they are a top eight offense and you can have a wide receiver who is winning offensive player of the year. And that I think is for the money that you're paying, like probably better what you're getting than what on a year to year basis you're even getting for that like other middle tier. But there's none of those. Those don't exist. And you have to look into those guys in a lot of ways. Yes. You have to look into them. Like the bucks getting Baker may feel initially like, I mean, they signed him for like a one year, whatever million dollars, four million bucks. Yeah, it's like you stumble into that working out for you. And then even even in the case of Baker may feel because he was a little bit older, smaller gets banged up. I think a little bit more sensitive to some of that stuff. Did not last, I think as long as they were hoping. Whereas like, I do think that because Sam Darnold is such a good athlete, he's a little bit younger at the arm is unbelievable. Like I could actually see him having like the longer runway. Obviously, maybe if he gets paid at a certain point, the number will jump up. But like he at least has a longer runway in my opinion for this like continuing to work out for him. Yeah. And I also think that these those contracts just don't come along very often. It's a reminder that it's worth taking a chance on those sorts of players. The way that the Vikings did with the Sam Darnold, the way that the bucks did with Baker may feel. If we're admitting that we know less about the quarterbacks than we think and the quarterbacks are more sensitive with their surroundings than we think, betting consistently on quarterback that were in poor surroundings and hoping you can get more out of them. That is a good bet. Unfortunately, the market is going to correct with that. Justin Fields signed a two-year 40 million dollar contract with the Jets last season because the Jets are trying to make that exact sort of bet. I don't think it was the wrong process for exactly the reasons that we're talking about. But I think it's just a reminder that the chances to do this are very rare and they're going to dry up as the market corrects because of how valuable those contracts potentially are. Yeah, that's going to be the thing is everybody's going to try to do it. And then if you're signing all of these guys for 20% more than whatever the contract you were getting for beforehand, it's like, well, then that's probably enough money to not sign guys like the Marcus Lawrence onto defense anymore. So it's like, then it's like, what's the point? Now, if you're only saving 10% 15, I'm just throwing out numbers. But if you're only saving 10 to 15% on this mid to your quarterback based on whatever you're paying, Trevor Lawrence, Jordan, love Brock, pretty. It's like, well, shit, sure, it's a little bit more expensive, but I'd rather just have that guy at a certain point and hope that he's going to solve some stuff for me because even having one of those guys that can win the MVP is immensely valuable. Yes. And even if those guys, the back press got this that 7 to 13 range, whatever we're calling it. Even if they are more sensitive to their surroundings than the top guys like Patrick and Holmes and stuff, they are much less sensitive than guys like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. And like I do think that there still are levels to it, even if those guys ultimately are more sensitive to that stuff. So if the lesson with Trevor is patience and I think a little bit of humility and a little bit of what's wait and see, I want to go through what that process looks like for you specifically because you never wavered in your belief that in the right circumstances, Trevor Lawrence could be again, an MVP caliber quarterback that he could reach that level. So I want I just want to ask you, as you were going through the 2020 through the backup of the 2023 season, most importantly, the 2024 season before we got hurt, as you were watching Trevor and a lot of people were jumping ship, what kept you in a place where you were like, no, this guy is still good. I think a big one for me and I think some people sometimes get frustrated with like holding on to draft priors and stuff like that. We're going to talk about that. Yeah. But I think the draft of prior stuff is like, this sounds ridiculous. but like it's valid. Those guys go that high in the draft because they are really talented. And I do think that that's where it started for me with Trevor is like, he's a really good athlete. He is like six, five, like 215 pounds. He's a really explosive, not just mover, but thrower. Like the ball flies out of his hands. And I think just when you see, and the other thing with him, there's always stood out at Clemson. It stood out in the NFL. There is, you can kind of really tap into who are the elite athletes at quarterback based and how well they throw when they are rolling to their left because to get your body around, to be able to throw that well, to be able to move like that. It's really difficult. And Trevor has always been one of the best in the NFL at it. And so to me, there was always just this level of talent that was really, really hard for me to move on from. And then I think that there were always just a couple of things that from his best moments, I was willing to cling on to. Like when he had any degree of offensive line helped, his pocket presence is phenomenal. The way that he moved around and there were low moments where offensive line cratered a little bit and he starts to feel pressure that's not there and all that stuff. But that happens to a lot of quarterbacks. But in my mind, when he had his highs and he had help, the pocket movement and the feel was incredible. And the other thing with him to me, is he was never afraid to make the most difficult throws on the field. Whether it's, you know, those dig routes, you'll throw deep outbreakers, like he was always willing to make to me, the throws that when these guys crystallized by the time they're 30, all of the best quarterbacks in the NFL are making these throws consistently. And you can get away with offenses on a year to year basis that don't necessarily do a lot of that. But over the long term, these quarterbacks have to make a lot of those throws. And I thought that he was always willing to do that. And then the last thing that I would say, and this always sounded like cope in the moment. And it probably was. But a big part of Trevor's thing is that he is going to throw the football. He knows what the open throw is supposed to be. He can read the coverages, he is going to throw it. Whether or not you are open or can catch the football is your problem. And for a long time, for a long time, they just didn't have receivers who were comfortable over the middle of the field or were snapping off their routes at the right depth. And it was like, the quarterback looks like an asshole 'cause he looks like he's throwing to a covered receiver or it's another drop or it's another tipped interception. And I think I was just willing to believe that with the right players and the right talent, that skill set and style of offense can work. And now we're seeing it. They trade for Jacobi Myers. Parker Washington has really come into his own as that style of player. And even Josh Cameron this year has more of a big body guys. Like they have the right kinds of receivers to play the way that Trevor has always wanted to play. And I think I was just willing to believe that eventually we would get to a spot where the team would have that sort of talent. The receiving talent is part of it. But to me, the most important thing is Liam Cohen is one of the difference-making guys. And that too. Like when you have one of the one day you would get one of them. And I, even in the moment when I was watching it, I was like, and it's so funny 'cause I think people get annoyed by this too where we'll just put them in one of those offenses. Like just put them in one of like the under-center Shanahan McVey offenses. And it's like, they did it and then it worked. You know, like it sounds stupid to keep saying that over and over and over again. But then for the most part, outside of Herbert with McDaniel right now, which is a different conversation. A lot of these types of offenses do make it easier on the quarterback. They are a positive multiplier for whatever the quarterback is. You mentioning that some of the, that he's gonna throw it no matter what things. I wanna talk about that 'cause I think that's interesting. My personal journey with Trevor specifically, I was firmly in the Trevor camp like all the way through the 2023 season, right? Even when it was a little bit more frustrating. In 2022 in the back half of the season, he was great. And I think that's important and I think that will bring me to another point I wanna hit here in a second. But even in 2023, the game I firmly remember where it felt like a fork in the road moment where you had to choose one direction or the other is when they played the Ravens on Sunday night football in 2023. He had that game where he turned the ball over a couple times. He had a couple fumbles. And I remember going back and watching that game and coming on whatever next show it was that we were doing. And being like, I actually think he played pretty well. And I understand. And this is kind of what I wanna dig into next. I understand if you are a listener, if you are a general NFL fan, having some asshole come on the show after you just watched a guy turn the ball over multiple times in prime time and tell you that he read some sacred text by going back and watching the tape that shows this guy actually played well would be maddening. I completely understand that. And there is a very interesting tension here, okay? You're watching the people that are on the outside that do not have the time or get paid to go back and re-watch every single one of these games and understand exactly the context, every detail about why a play happened the way that it did. They're seeing a guy make mistakes. They're seeing a guy finish look like an also ran quarterback. The way that Justin Herbert has at times over the last couple of years. The way that Jordan love can in certain moments. The way that Trevor Lawrence did for long stretches. And they're being like, well, it's the money ball thing. Well, if he's a good quarterback, why isn't he playing good? And I get why there's frustration in what you're seeing and then some people kind of sitting there and being steadfast and being like, no, I promise you that this guy is gonna be okay. And I think as a product of that tension, there have been times where I've kind of thrown my hands up and been like, I'm willing to play devil's advocate here. It happened with Trevor in the middle of last year. We had the conversation about it. He was struggling and it was just really hard as you heard this chorus of people being like, you guys are being stubborn, right? Like you guys are being unwilling to move off of things that you should move off. And I was, I was understanding of that viewpoint. And so I think that tension makes it really difficult for somebody like you, somebody like the people that are watching these games to really sit and hunker down in what they believe because there are people who are going to accuse you of just being stubborn and cling to your priors when in reality, if you did that with Trevor Lawrence, you would be correct. Like that would have been the right way to treat the situation. And so I'm really, I'm really understanding of where people are coming from with this. Because the last, I wanna be generous. I don't wanna be like, well, you just have to watch the games. Like that's unfair. It's unfair to people who don't even have the ability to do that, let alone the freedom and time to do that. And so I get why that tension exists. I think we could be a little bit better in how we handle some of that tension. - I think that's probably fair. At least the way I see it in terms of being willing to hold on to my priors, in some cases too long. I admit I am very stubborn. I think in the same way that the league is a very weak to weak league, it is a very year-to-year league. And I think that like some things are just gonna vacillate all the time, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the player is that much better or worse. It can just be all of these circumstantial things. And I think that kind of leads me to another thing that I wanted to talk about where I think a lot of people, we all say that context matters. But then when it actually comes to applying it, it becomes very difficult. And we just default to like, well, if he's playing bad, then he's just not very good. And I think that sometimes that can happen. Like obviously like Trevor at certain points, I think it's been like, well, he's not playing well. It's like, well, I think that there have been reasons for why that is. And like, I think Trevor is a good example too because he got saved, quote unquote, in 2022 by Doug Peterson and the offense. And then with that same staff, it all falls apart for him. And so it's like, well, why isn't it working? It's like, well, what you're looking at on paper, on the roster, on the coaching staff, if it is materially not helping him on the field, I don't give a shit what it says on the paper. This happened with, you're very familiar with this, Caleb Williams rookie year. We all looked at what that could be on paper. And we were like, man, this could be so cool. Like, well, they can get by with the offensive line, but they'll be able to run the ball, Walden can bring the offense and like, they've got some of these pass catchers. And then it was completely dog shit. And it was like, I think there was this tension of we thought it was going to be good. And now the quarterbacks playing bad in it. So he must be bad, but it's like in reality, he's not playing great, but everything else was not nearly as good as we thought it was supposed to be. That is exactly what is happening with Justin Herbert. Right. No, my notes do 100%. None of the promise of the offense is coming through right now. That's exactly what's happening with him. And I just think if you're listening, if you're again, if you're one of these people that is frustrated by this type of conversation, I get it. It's going to go back to the why, well, why is it never his fault? Why is it never their faults? Why is it never Jordan loves fault? Why is it never Justin Herbert's fault? Why is it, why was it never Trevor Lawrence's fault? And I think part of it is that it is their fault, but it also isn't. Like I think part of this like steadfast belief that it doesn't lay all at the quarterbacks feet is that doesn't it make more sense when we have seen these guys play at super, super high levels before that what's changed more materially is the circumstances, not how good of a quarterback these guys are. Like 100%. Like Justin, do we think Justin Herbert is a notably worst player than he was in 2022? I doubt it. I highly doubt it. I probably doubt it. And I think Drake May is a notably worst player right now than he was last year. That's another perfect example where we came into this year being like they've got AJ Brown. They signed Romeo dobs and they're going to be able to run the ball better and all this stuff. The offensive line is not any better. Morgan Moses, they had to replace midweek three. They cannot run the ball. AJ Brown has heard and Romeo dobs they either don't know what to do. do with him and he's not playing very well. And so if anything, their past catching core is worse because they don't have Stefan Diggs or Keishan booty who were like not elite receivers last year, but better than what they are currently working with. So you add that on top of some of the schedule changes. And it's like all of a sudden Drake may looks horrible. And it's like in reality, he's actually working with a worse set of circumstances than last year when we already said last year, he was kind of getting by and making do with what he had. The last thing I want to say about that tension before I, we get onto how long we should be waiting for these guys and like what becomes, we can't just say we have to wait forever, right? There's got to be a cause. That's a reason too. And I want to explore that. I, part of this tension is also when you're in our positions and you're having to talk about these guys. And even not even people in our positions, when you're not afforded 90 minute podcasts where you can try to explore every ounce of nuance, I get in a content creation world. Why sitting there and being like, well, it's just not good enough around him. He's still a good quarterback. Sorry. And having that be the end of the conversation, that's not interesting. Like that's not compelling. That's not compelling in the same way that trying to put it on the quarterback and living, laying into the drama of that is compelling. I get why this is how most of the conversations unfold because it does make for good content, it does make for good television. And if you're not somebody that's going back and rewatching all of this shit, it's easy to see if the quarterback's not playing well and the offense isn't good, it's very easy to be like, well, the quarterback is the problem, right? I get why that happens. And so I think that also plays into this is that it getting to a place where you're just like, and it's stuff around him isn't good enough. And just going back to that over and over and over again in conversation doesn't make for compelling conversation. And at a certain point, even we have to get to a place where I think we're trying to have more compelling conversations than that. Yeah. And I think the last thing that I would say on this, which I think actually does kind of transition us into the next thing is like, I think a big thing for me and why I was willing to hang on to Trevor, for example, is that I think oftentimes when I'm trying to defend some of these quarterbacks or we're trying to defend them, whatever, it's not that they are blameless. Justin Herbert is not playing well right now. But the difference to me is that is he at fault or is he the problem? To me, he is at fault for some of their issues. He is not the problem at the offense. And that was like with Trevor Lawrence, for example, what I believe for a long time was that he is not the problem with what they're having. He had some bad plays. He's throwing interceptions. He shouldn't. He's got a bonehead play every now and then. But that he was at fault, but not the problem. And I do think that where a quarterback falls on that scale kind of depends on how much of a leash you can give them for, you know, two years, three years, whatever it's going to be. The last part I wanted to want to hit with the with the Herbert thing specifically is that I get why the treatment of him has been more frustrating to people than it might be for other quarterbacks. And it's because of what people tried tried to do with him very quickly. I am very guilty of that. After that 2021 season, I absolutely was like, he's one of the guys, right? He is up there with everybody else. He is right there and will be with the homes is the Allens all that. That did not happen. I think because the aesthetics of the way that he plays are so exciting, we tried to elevate him into a place that he did not deserve to be quicker than we should have done that. And I get why I think that still plays into the frustration that some people have in the way that we talk about Justin Herbert. It's one of those, well, five years ago, you told me that he was the third best quarterback in the league. Why now does he get treated the same way as these guys from six to eighteen that you're talking about? I get that. That's a fair thing to criticize. And I think that was wrong, right? He probably is in this group and closer to the dax and the parties and all of those guys, then we made him out to be probably too often. I am fully willing to admit that. I think that is important to because I think with almost all quarterbacks and I think this extends to whether they have really high highs or really low lows early, really low lows, I think are a little bit more concerning. But even the really high highs, I think can be misleading. I don't think we always know what a quarterbacks true like level is until four or five years into it because some of these guys really early on can have insane highs. Like I even take Drake May last year's a good example. I want to save this for a second because I want to end with this. Let's take one more quick break and dig into this because I agree with you, but I also don't. Oh, okay. All right, so keep going with that point. The idea that you think that some of these early spikes can be a little bit misleading because I think they can be, but I also think there's enough signal on them that they're important. They are important in so far as I think if a guy like that proves himself to have insane highs within the first two years, chances are he will be a at minimum top half of the league quarterback in this range that we're talking about where you get paid the $50 million and it's fine. And I think that part is not misleading at all. I think sometimes though, when a guy has Jane Daniels's rookie year, Justin Herbert's second year, Drake May's MVP last year, where we are immediately like that guy's quarterback for and it's like that probably I think it's just sometimes of like a really talented player hits a spike and then defenses start to catch on to what they're going to do. Defense has changed regardless of whatever that quarterback is. Like things just happen where I think that quarterback is realistically probably not going to sustain that high all the time. You get rare cases, you get past your homes where he immediately steps in in his quarterback one and maintains that forever. And that's going to happen every now and then more realistically, it's going to take four or five years of ebbs and flows, seeing what they look like in different circumstances, playing different schedules, playing different kinds of defenses. How do they adapt to the league changing and kind of what I talked about earlier of like most of the time, these guys have to learn to win different ways before they become something that is immovable. And I think that's why some of these really early spike seasons, you get and it looks like this guy is going to be the next guy knocking on that door of elite. And maybe they can get there eventually, but it's not always as immediate as you as you want it to be. I'm 100% with you on this. I think the way that you framed it, I agree with. And I'll say this and I've talked about this. I'm guilty of it. I get excited by the things that are new. And it's like, man, what if this guy can crack this group of players? And I probably do it a little bit too fast consistently because it's fun to buy into these guys. More good quarterbacks is one of the next guys. Yeah, makes the league better. Come on. But I think what you're saying is right. And if you because I think the next logical question here is with some of the other young players in the NFL, how long should we wait? How long is it reasonable to hold on and believe these guys might turn into quality quarterbacks? Because I do think if you look back at most of the guys that we're talking about, they all had a spike year in year like two and sometimes into year three, depending on circumstances. Okay. Lamar won the MVP in year two. Talked about how Herbert's year two was insane. Lawrence. 2024 was a frustrating year for Lawrence, but he was banged up that year. 2023 that he turned the ball over a decent amount, but I think still was playing really well or still was playing pretty well. In 2022, Trevor Lawrence was awesome. Trevor Lawrence had a really good year in 2022. So even if there was a little bit of a valley after that, relatively, we still saw by year two Trevor Lawrence have one of those spikes. Drake may almost win the MVP last year. Jordan Love in year one is a starter had 41 hundred yards and 32 touchdowns. Stafford starts 14 through 30 because he got hurt in year two is the year where he had 5,000 yards and 40 touchdown passes. Almost all of the guys in this tier have one of those spikes in year two into year three, like Caleb in the back half of last year probably gives you enough in terms of that spike to be like, okay. And from that spike, it doesn't have to be linear. It's often not linear. But if you have that moment, I think it's worth riding the waves in the subsequent seasons because that moment in year two, if you can play for an extended stretch that way is probably enough of a signal that you will come out on the other side of this as one of the players that we're talking about. Now that that I 100% agree with. If you reach the mountain top, even when you fall in certain years, more realistically, you're falling to producing like quarterback eight, nine, 10, whatever it's going to be. And you are still feel like a very good quarterback, even if it's it's very rare that a guy truly does break into that elite tier. I mean, that's that's why those guys are who they are. But yeah, I think we're actually, I think we actually arrived kind of at the same place here with what we're saying. We're like, if you have one of those spikes, you're going to get a very long runway to prove that you can get back there again. And you should like it. Trevor Lawrence is the perfect example. It took us three years to get all the way back there where we could find those spikes again. But once you get to them again and you get the right circumstances, you get the right coach, you have an offense that like might run the table like it it really is. I think when you have those moments, you do have to hold on to them. And I think it's a good reminder with the young quarterbacks. It's been rough for camwort. It's it's been rough. And if he doesn't have one of those spikes by the end of this year, maybe you start to get a little bit worried. But he's one of those players like, I think we need to show a little bit more patience. We are 19 starts into his career, 20 starts into his career, Michael Panic. a start of 13 games, 13 games. I think we should be open to the idea of what somebody who is as talented of a thrower as Michael Penox's might turn into. The most interesting case here, probably Bryce Young. Do we have enough time with Bryce Young that even if you, shockingly and me are acknowledging that we are seeing the best version of Bryce Young we've ever seen this year, do we have enough time with Bryce Young for it to probably be unrealistic that he can become one of these players? That's the one where there's probably the most, I don't know what to do with this among the group of young guys that we're talking about. He is a fascinating case because it goes back to what I talked about with Trevor Lawrence earlier and why I'm willing to hang on to him and some other players. Trevor Lawrence is exceptionally talented. There are only so many people in the world who are built the way that he is, who can throw the way he is, who can move the way that he does. Bryce Young I think is a good athlete and he has very good spatial awareness, but the physical tools are just not particularly special and I think that's why it's a little bit harder for me to see him like holding on to top 10, top 12 quarterback status, but he is interesting in the fact that I think outside of these guys who spike really early, a lot of these quarterbacks, it takes until game 24, 26, 27 for it to start to come along. Caleb Williams, great example. It took a year and a half until he was able to be like, oh, he looks like one of those dudes and I think that that is a more realistic and common path for the young quarterback. Bryce Young is a perfect example. For the first 20-ish starts of his career. He was unplayable and the situation was bad. Obviously, don't get me wrong. He looked like not an NFL quarterback and they tried to bench him for Andy Dalton until Andy Dalton got in a car accident and then Bryce Young had to come back. But then over the last year and a half or so, they've improved the offensive line a little bit. Obviously, they're banged up like right this moment today as we're recording, but in general, they've been better. And then you bring in guys like Tataromaic Millen, Jalen Coker, this year they bring in Darren Waller, like better receivers to give him a chance to look like an NFL quarterback. That on top of reps and I think them honing in what they want to be on offense, he looks like totally functional and they look like they can be a solid NFL offense. I think to me, the difference is what we're talking about is this the spike. Like, is the spike being 11th and quarterback, you know, EPA per play? Because if that's the spike, that's not good enough. The spike has to be like top four, top five for me to be like, man, that's something I really want to hold on to. And it brings me back to the conversation from earlier. If you have to decide whether you pay Bryce Young $55 million a year, I think the question you have to ask yourself, do we think in the right circumstances, Bryce Young could be the MVP of the league, even if you think he is a viable starter based in the way that he is playing right now, I think that feels like a tall order. I did not mean to do that. It works though. I mean to do that. I'm in the same boat though. I do think that I've gotten to a place where I think that there's a world where he can hold on to being a top 20 quarterback status and he can be a totally solid NFL starter. I just think that that is a player that if we're talking about paying like one of the top 10 guys and when he signs his deal, he's he's fifth or fourth on sport track or order or over the cap or whatever it's going to be, I'm still pretty hesitant about that because I just don't know if the ceiling and the spikes are really worth what it's going to cost to get there. The last thing I want to talk about in this conversation is the only thing I had in my notes that I do think is worth bringing up that we did not hit and it the jumping off point for it was that Trevor game against the Ravens in 2023. As part of these discussions, we care about turnovers too much. Like whether or not a guy I 100% agree. I 100% agree. We care about them too much. They are influencing these conversations too much. They're the most visible place. They are so easy to fixate on and I don't I'm not saying turnovers don't matter for an individual game. Whether you win or lose that individual game, turnovers are the most most important thing. Turnovers are the reason Josh Allen in the bills lost to the Broncos last year. Turnovers are the reason that Trevor Lawrence and that team lost to the Ravens in 2023. Really the only reason Josh Allen ever loses games. Yes. But it's that. But that to me, I think we fixate on them too much when we're trying to decide how good quarterbacks are in an individual moment in an individual game. It can be what syncs you and maybe for Josh Allen, that's what's keeping him from all time greatness, right? And that's fine because the wins in those games are the biggest thing for Josh Allen right now. But for most of these guys, when we're trying to figure out where they sit in these conversations, we talk and think about turnovers too much. It's like, oh man, Justin or Jordan love through two picks in this game. Jordan loves sucks. It's like, well, probably not. Like that probably isn't the most important long-term determining factor of quarterback quality. The number that jumps out to me, I just very randomly, I was on the 2023 season looking at some stats and sorted all 32 quarterbacks by EPA lost on interceptions. Pretty and my homes in 2023 were both bottom eight in the EPA they lost on interceptions in that year. Bottom eight, like they lost more than almost every other quarter. Yes, they were bottom eights and the 23rd and niners were like an unstoppable, unstoppable offense, those teams played in the Super Bowl that year. So that's the only other part of this that like, I don't think I've ever said explicitly, I just think that and this is the other thing and I'll say this now it's far enough removed. I firmly believe this and it all worked out in the end because I think he probably shouldn't have won in 2024. Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023. I'm a Lamar guy and I'm still never going to give up that trophy, but Josh Allen, Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023. And Lamar should have been the MVP in the league in 2024. If we come out even in the wash, I'm fine with that. Oh, yes, absolutely. Because Lamar probably doesn't win it in 2024 only because he won in 2023 and Josh Allen didn't win it in 2023. I really do. And I wish this is one of those things that I wish I had more courage in the moment. Because Josh Allen turned the ball over so many times that year, that's why he didn't get it. Josh Allen should have been the MVP of the league in 2023 and Lamar should have won in 2024. But I think this is important and because what Josh Allen had to do, given that it was not a perfect team that year, the most of the quarterbacks in my mind, who can play top 10 football and have those MVP highs. They are, it's like I said earlier, it's like Trevor, they're willing to make the throws that are really, really hard and willing to make plays and willing to make mistakes. Well, if your team ain't good and you're still willing to willing to make mistakes, you're going to make them. You're going to get stripped sacked. You're going to throw picks. You're going to take sacks. You shouldn't take like that's going to happen. And I think like to bring him up again, Drake May is a perfect example of this. He is a quarterback who will press. He will make mistakes. He will try to find the big plays. When it's run and hot and it's working and he has enough help, he will make them. When the situation deteriorates, he's not going to take the foot off the pedal. He's going to keep going in some quarterbacks will and by virtue of that, when the team is bad, the quarterback doesn't look as individually terrible. Like I think Derek Carr is a great example of this. He had stretches where the team was not good, the offense was not performing, but individually, you look at box boars and you watch him play and you're like, I guess he wasn't that bad, but it's like he wasn't doing enough things to like really put himself in position to have the mistakes that you would need for for those plays to happen. So again, I do think it sounds weird, but the guys who are the best quarterbacks are the ones who are willing to make the worst plays sometimes. And I think that explains part of the gap and part of the fixation with people like us really hyping up and talking about the talented aesthetically pleasing quarterbacks because even the lows are going to be low when the circumstances get a little bit worse, but because the highs of a chance of being so high because of the way that they play, I think it's worth believing in betting on those quarterbacks in the long term. And so it just again speaks to a lot of attention that can exist as we're having these conversations about these sort of guys. All right, I'm sure no one will be mad or annoyed about anything that we just said over the last hour, but I'm glad we had that discussion because as I watched Trevor and as I kind of thought about him in the broader context of the position and the league and just what we can learn from it, I thought it was worth having this sort of conversation about. Yeah, this was a blast. This was to be able to finally come back after five years of Trevor Lawrence being the guy had to scream about he was good to be able to do a show of like he is good. It's what we're in a happy place for me. All right, that is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow with the week four preview until then. Talk to you guys very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. 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