What to Watch for in Week 1, Dynasty Games + Hope Burns - Dynasty Fantasy Football

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betts, and a Baller. Kyle and I are going to do most of the talking because we're in the same room. Kyle, you were down here for the League of Record draft, and you were like, let's stay one more day and record a couple shows in studio. And you did. It is good because this is actually how the Dynasty Podcast started, was in studio, us getting to do this together, and then Betts. At that point, I think I just had him muted most of the time for the show. Right. I have him muted in my mind. Yeah, in my mind, I can't hear what he's saying. That's fine. Listeners, if I were you, I would just mute every time I talk. Oh, man. No, we love you, Betts. And Wednesday is not the day where usually you get the juices flowing. So I think the cadence of what people are used to is not setting their lineups on Wednesdays, waiver day usually. But it's not only go time, but we get an onslaught of Wednesday, and then Thursday, and then a weekend of action. We were trying to come up with a word for this the other day, that when you're a kid, and it's Christmas Day, and you know that feeling, and then when you're an adult, you're like, I can't recapture that feeling. I don't know. I'm in that right now, where I'm excited, but it doesn't feel like football fully yet because of a Wednesday. Yeah, not me. Oh. No, it's football time. Here's what happened. I realized that I had to set all my lineups, like in all my leagues, and specifically, this is the Dynasty show, like in a redraft, you drafted your certain players in a certain, in order, and you kind of know who you're starting. Matchups might factor in for your second flex or whatever, but you're pretty much, you know, starting who you drafted. In a Dynasty league, week after week after week, you're making different start-sit decisions based on your roster, and guess what? It's time to set your lineup. Like, I know every league. Like, I had my lineup set in all my leagues, just putting my best players in. Right. You know, so by default, if I were to have forgotten, it's not like I. Don't have a lineup. But now I, like, actually went through it. I'm like, oh, I need to pay attention to matchups. I need to do the. It's time. I had a league where I set my lineup weeks ago because I kind of knew who the best players were, like you were talking about. And then I realized I had Marshawn Lloyd, you know, on this roster, certifiable nasty boy. And now I'm like, I still have to wait. I have to wait for this decision to figure out if I'm the smartest man alive for having Marshawn Lloyd on my roster. Sounds like you could use the ultimate dashboard, my friend. That's what you need to help you this year. Actually, it's funny you guys were just talking about that. I just logged into a couple of dynasty leagues. And because, I mean, if you're like us and you play in a handful of leagues, maybe there's some sickos out there that play in like 12 dynasty leagues. If that's you, more power to you. But there are times where I'm like, huh, forgot that guy was on my team in this league. So the dashboard is very, very helpful for that. But yeah, man, set those lineups and let us be the first to hopefully announce or remind your Wednesday players. Out of the flex, your Thursday players. Out of the flex, into the starting lineup. That's right. Give yourself flexibility come Sunday. And yeah, if you are new to the show, new to the footballers, and you don't know what the ultimate dashboard is, if you're a Foot Clan member, you can sign up at jointhefoot.com. We have a really cool in-season tool that will help organize all of your leagues very easily. It makes the waiver day so much easier, setting lineups so much easier. It's got a lot of smart configuration. It'll tell you that. It'll tell you that. It'll tell you you should move this guy, you know, out of your flex and into your running back position because he plays a day earlier. So yeah, you can check that out at jointhefoot.com. On this episode, we are going to get to play a little bit of a dynasty game, talking ceiling, talking floor outcomes for certain players. But I wanted to start us off by setting expectations for week one. My quick question for us is, are there any players or situations that you are eyeing the most for week one? Like, what are you watching for based on, I've done a ton of off-season research, you've done all these things, all this excitement, and what are you kind of focusing on? So Jason, you got a name. My answer would have been the Bears, right? Because all the debate about the past catchers, but with Roma Dunzey, with whatever injury he is, mild injuries dealing with, you know, it's like, I'm not sure we're going to have a concrete answer. I mean, no matter what, after week one, we will think we have a concrete answer. But I think it's probably wise to avoid making too many decisions based on the Bears' first game. What I want to see is the Packers' backfield. How does that play out? Can my man, Caleb Johnson, get a little bit of run? They talked about yesterday literally saying this is going to be a running back by committee until Jacobs gets back. No, just to be clear, he's back to being your man? Oh. I think so. I heard it too. Because I liked where you were. I liked the place you were emotionally where you kind of said, you know, it's just this little hope and I don't have to. But this has grown. It's grown. You know. An old flame has rekindled. Yeah. It's like, I saw her in the grocery store. She didn't see me, but I remember her. No, it's, yeah, I'm hopeful. And some of the reports, and honestly, it could be Brooks. Involved. I mean, this could be a three-way timeshare. Chris Brooks. Chris Brooks. Who needs to be rostered. Absolutely. Brooks the producer. What will devastate me in week one is if it is a full-blown timeshare between Marshawn Lloyd and Chris Brooks. And you don't see any Caleb Johnson. Whatever. That's a small one. The other one that I'm really, really, really looking forward to, primarily because I have him in so many leagues. I drafted him with my last round pick. Just about every redraft league I was in is Terrence Ferguson. A nasty boy of ours. And I think, you know, week one is just going to be the tale of snap count and targets. Is he out there for 75% of the snaps? Incredible. Is he out there for 35%? Like, it could be, he could be a minuscule part-time player all the way to he could be basically the third pass catcher for this team. And we don't know. And we're going to find out very, very, we're going to find out tomorrow on Thursday. It's interesting is he's one of the guys that I have circled. And I'll give you a list of things that I'm looking for of players that their role last year was intriguing. So like, we know he was the deep threat for the Rams. Very, very like specialized role, highest ADOT for any tight in the league. But he wasn't involved inside the red zone. And you think about the tight ends that they had on the rock. Colby Parkinson was like a red zone monster for that team. And Devante Adams was as well. I looked at every single team last year and how many red zone dropbacks they had per game. And the Rams were tied with the Cardinals of all teams for highest red zone dropbacks per game. But Ferguson was not running any of those. Like he only ran 21 red zone routes the entire season. So if he's on the field as the quote unquote third wide receiver, or, you know, they do their 13 personnel, but he ends up kind of in. Like a slot wide receiver, then he's interesting. So I bring that up because 70% of touchdowns occur inside the red zone. Like that's how the NFL works. And there's a bunch of dudes that when I look at their role last year, Dalton Kincaid is somebody that Mike and I took in the draft. Please involve this man more inside the red zone. Josh Downs was not as involved inside the red zone as other guys. Trey Harris is another name. Matthew Golden for those Matthew Golden truthers still out there. He was not involved inside the red zone. And then one more name. Jack Besh wasn't really a red zone guy. So that that's what I'm looking at is those kind of players. Are they going to see the high value opportunities once they get inside the 20? Yeah, that's a good one. The Josh Downs one is fascinating because we're going to learn a lot about his role, not just with Alec Pierce, you know, healthy and playing, but also what does this mean with Keenan Allen there? So dude, if Josh Downs doesn't work, fantasy Twitter is going to maybe have a meltdown this year. We'll see. But just to hammer home the Terrence Ferguson point, this one is so fascinating. And like you said, we're going to learn tomorrow, basically, at least like what the initial role is. But McVay always has this kind of like sneaky. This is what we've been working on all along. And here it is, right? Like the year that Kyron got hurt on the opening kickoff, there was a lot of rumors like this is the dude like this is the he would have been the dude if he didn't get hurt. And now I finally saw it. So there's been some some rumblings on Terrence Ferguson. We'll see what he can do in week one. My answer to this question was this Dolphins offense and not necessarily the entirety of the offense. But. and Malik Willis be a full-time starter in the league how much does chris bell play is the caleb douglas hype real or just what we see with kind of these rookies every august you know so just seeing what the dolphins offense looks like is it functional at least can we count on these rookies and really for me for chris bell that's the one i'm most excited about how much does he play in the first you know two weeks off of his acl injury and um you know because obviously the talent is there and if you got him in your dynasty drafts as far as a rookie draft he was always going way later than he would have gone otherwise because of the injury and so man if he can get out there at least in week one week two kind of start this ramp up period he looks like he could be one of those diamonds in the rough so i'm excited to see what that playing time looks like in week one they do get the raiders so we'll see do you guys like like i have zero expectations that he will be a thing in week one now he being who chris bell oh i i there's no world to me where chris bell is special in week one i he he impressed he's shocked i would say he's shocked everyone by playing in the preseason we did not think that would happen based on his timeline his recovery where he was to start training camp but just the fact that he was able to make it out to the game does not mean that the player who missed basically all of camp as a rookie is now going to be plugged into a 75 snap right share player like that just feels impossible to me so i mean in a dynasty league it's a little bit more irrelevant because you're you're not having to drop him or pick him up you're just rostering him and so you've got the time for him to develop but in a redraft league i i still do like he is the higher upside chris bell is the highest upside of that of that team and so i don't have any problem if you want to draft him over caleb douglas if you want to take the shot i'm doing the opposite because i think caleb douglas gets the first opportunity plays the most snaps in the beginning of the year and i'm doing the opposite and then if he captures it great if not i think chris bell will be on waivers so i'll just make the swap ski i see that's i'm in the exact same boat where it's interesting when a player like we this is a dynasty podcast but let's not you know let's not realize that like redraft plays into what we're doing we're starting players every single week the same way you'd start redraft and yet he's gained a ton a ton of buzz over the last i don't know week or two about in redraft leagues people drafting him but i'm in the same boat as jason like i just see you know i'm in the same boat as jason and i'm in the same boat as jason and i'm in the same boat as this works out is that it's slow and eventually you get there and you can wait that out in dynasty i think my bigger question bets is bobby slowick is is just not the play caller that i want to attach to a team that has intriguing pieces and intriguing pieces that are cheap in dynasty like if you have malik willis he's probably been sitting on your roster for a couple years as a backup same thing with like the rookies malik washington greg dulcich like other than achan everybody else is cheap and yet to the end of the day i'm in the same boat as jason and i'm in the same boat as to see this team actually exceed expectation let's say they're a i don't know top 16 offense which isn't crazy but way higher than what everybody else thinks i don't think he's the play caller to make that happen that would be crazy to me top 16 well even top 20 i was like is that even do i care if they're a top 20 offense what i care about with this dolphins offense because it sounds great in july and august to be like hey we're a run first team great what happens when you're down three scores in the third quarter because there are some offensive coordinators who will be very stubborn and just be like this is what we're doing even if we lose by three touchdowns i want to see them be like look we're down three like let's cut malik willis loose and just let him go because then you get the the right tail outcomes for fantasy where even if the team isn't good that you know garbage time scrambling passing opportunities that's where that comes into play so i want to see what this team does when they're down are they really going to just be stubborn and stick to the run are they going to let malik willis go do you feel like the worst team in the league like the i think so do you think so jason would you put them behind the cardinals the worst team in the league i would i would put them behind the cardinals i think it would go yeah cardinal second worst jets probably third worst browns fourth worst and the dolphins worst that's my current expectation and i i would say that that part of my rankings of those is not just quality of team but quality of schedule the cardinals and the dolphins have brutal brutal schedules this year whereas the jets and the browns have have really really you know cake schedules for the nfl which there is no easy schedule yeah the dolphins finished third in their division last year and yet they were gifted what worst word to use but like gifted a schedule that was very very hard in a season where 60 of their roster they're just like paying for guys that aren't even on it so it's it's like a odd situation for a year and i bring that up because like there's not a guarantee that slowick is the coordinator of this team next year like he was the passing game coordinator last year and there's no guarantee that's gonna hold over or like malik willis is not a guarantee to be their starter in 2027 no no i think it would i think he is assumed to not be their starter like they're gonna have a top five pick in a theoretically this time of year believed to be deep quarterback draft class in which case if they have you know a top two pick they will be drafting his replacement there's a scenario where they win four games he's the quarterback eight because he runs the ball and he's not the quarterback next year so like there's all these different scenarios that they could play out that way let's take a quick break we'll be right back we'll be right back you know it's all strategy everything we're trying to do is i'm trying to be smarter than my than my league mates both on a player level but on a you know positional level when to take what positions and all of this thing but i was like there's no i love a good strategy game you know play code names or you know people play katan or you know whatever whatever board games that are just strategy games and they're so fun because you're just trying to outwit out smart uh out your opponents there's no game like this where you can you spend a year or at least six months prepping for the game it's so much fun because it's like we are putting in work for so long to be better than you and and you just don't you don't get that i mean people love games and there's no game like this it's the best it's so it's so funny because my wife she goes you guys put in a she like she loves bringing that up she's like man you guys are insane i go well maybe that's part of it like yeah i want to control part of the game and speaking of games let's go for it all right so i was i was doing some thinking jason the other day and that's how i came up with this game so i'm going to explain it to you guys like you're five okay like you're five years old and it's gonna be really simple you can play along at home but i'm going to list a player i'm going to bring up what our consensus startup rank is for dynasty and then i want to ask a question what is the ceiling what is the floor and then what is the door for this player and by door i mean what is another outcome for this player because often we look at a player and say these are the two outcomes they could do this they could hit the ceiling outcome or here's what the other uh scenario well there's often a third door or a third scenario that plays out in a season that we don't know what it is and we don't know what it is and we don't know what it is and we don't know what it is and we don't know what it is and we don't see coming and that affects their value it affects the team now injury is one of those we're not just going to bring up what if this player gets injured that's always a scenario that nobody thinks about or at least looks at the projections and sees but what's a third scenario for either how the team chooses to play their play style or another teammate emerging or this happens in the next year and i want to just throw that out there for people to think about it we're also going to because i think for some of these guys i might think man this guy could be wide receiver one this year and you'd like no way not not happening not on the table okay so we good we're good we're good let's play ceiling floor door nico collins is the first player i want to bring up and i need to ask you guys from i have nico collins on a roster does he feel like a wide receiver one to you he doesn't feel that way to me and i use that word specifically like feeling because he very well could be a wide receiver one this year his consistency over his last 17 games has been surprisingly okay he's like a b and consistency from our models and it doesn't feel that way you know you view him as like this more boom bust guy because he's not a target hog you know he's not someone that's catching 100 passes um so i don't feels like a wide receiver one to me. I would agree with that, just general. kind of sentiment around him and i actually have him on a dynasty team and every time i log in i look at his you know player icon there in my starting lineup i just picture cj stroud and i think a lot of people feel the same way of like you know i i wish he just had somebody else's is the general feeling i think so i think a lot of people would prefer him as their wide receiver too which if you have him as your wide receiver too like that's awesome but i do think he is one of those guys that is i don't want to say more likely but likely to finish inside the top 12 15 ish at the position he's an interesting case study in dynasty because through the first two years he didn't surpass 500 receiving yards in either year he was good on a per route basis so you could have been like okay there's something there to the player i'm gonna hold on to him but i don't think any of us saw after the first two years this guy's gonna be you know wide receiver nine wide receiver eight and you know he's putting up 14.7 points per game like legitimate wide receiver nine wide receiver eight and you know he's putting up 14.7 points per game like when he's on the field he's also never played a full season in his career but like i would have not seen that for this guy if we were playing this game after a second season i would have been like i don't i don't this guy's fine it's funny because it it does really come down to stroud i mean when stroud came out as rookie and lit the world on fire and was like wow they've got a quarterback and and here's this guy who never did much until he got a quarterback and now he's got a 15 games top 10 wide receiver and you're like this is a superstar and as stroud has regressed it's been felt with nico yes that's kind of like the value is like okay we've seen the best of him he's getting a little older he's 27 and a half years old entering year six it doesn't feel like this player is ascending the way that we want to and yet he's just he's steady three straight a thousand yard seasons he's second in yards per outrun over the last three seasons so this guy's good so let's ask the first question what is his ceiling see see where we're at and then we'll go to his floor so bets you go first what is his ceiling in 2026 we're talking total points end of season assuming health wide receiver four okay jason yeah i think it's right around there i would probably say his ceiling is wide receiver five i don't think the offense is going to put up enough yards and passing touchdowns to be inside the there so yeah i'll say wide receiver five i went bullish i think that there's a scenario now with with higgins out that he could just see 160 targets and if he hits double digit touchdowns he could be the wide receiver one whoo that's that's bullish spicy and i will say this and that's 99 27 and a half years old in dynasty leagues we start to look at this like an elder wide receiver you know like career years happen often at 27 so um you know if if he had his best year ever this season you know it shouldn't be surprising to anybody yeah he's the same age as cd lamb which i like cd lamb feels younger there's different players so he feels like faster to me and more spry and then you look at nico collins and sometimes you're like this dude's a man and then so just just different types so i don't know i think the jayden higgins thing helps in terms and he's always been the dominant one but like k sean booty is not a target earning player the way that jayden higgins could have been in year two so it does change the structure of the offense i don't think i i'll push back a little bit i think that k sean booty's ceiling is just as high if if not higher than than higgins i don't think i don't think higgins was going to be an incredible target earner you can make the argument that tank dell should he have been healthy um one day could have one day could have been more of a target earner but when tank dell was doing great um that was when we saw the best nico so maybe having a good wide receiver on the other side of the field is is helpful to nico um yeah my my only issue is when we talk about these upside range of outcomes i know he hasn't played a full season yet but his current career high in targets is 120 so he has not been the you know every down possession guy that's just going out and and you know being like a drake london is another taller big bodied wide receiver he is a possession guy he's going to go out there and be looked at you'll move him into the slot the way that exactly 30 percent of the time and that's just not his game so i i have a real hard time seeing 160 targets yeah i think any part of it's the per game stuff i was gonna say yeah just to kind of piggyback on what jason's saying there to get those outcomes in fantasy you also need not just target consolidation which i think nico can do especially considering tank dell's health how talented really is kashon booty from a targeting perspective there's i think a wide range there this team did not want to play jill and no last year like they don't really have true target owners behind nico and so that's great in one hand but the other hand is like you need an offense to open it up to have just raw power and you don't have to have a lot of power and you don't have to have a lot of power and you pass attempts and the way strata's played recently the texans are not incentivized to open it up offensively with letting him kind of run the show like they brought in david mccartney for a reason obviously this defense is projected to be a top three to five unit maybe some would say top one um the best in the league so yeah like those things need to kind of work in his favor and right now on paper they don't work that way is what i would say would would you be surprised to learn that the texans were a top 10 pass attempt team last year that does sound surprising i i i literally just pulled this up because i was i was gonna make the point like they don't pass enough and i'm like what they they passed the ball 582 times that's crazy is that is is this general mills i was gonna say how mills in there and all of a sudden i'm gonna look that i think he started three games um yeah i'm on it i'm i'm and then one of those was oh they were letting davis mills cook 45 41 attempts yeah davis mills started three games and i'm just curious because i haven't looked at this in a while 10 11 12 those were the weeks let's see how nico collins did in those weeks i hate cj stroud is just slowly being buried yeah in this conversation 10 through 12 uh nico collins was the wide receiver 5 the wide came with uh general mills he saw 25 targets in this first two games so i mean so he can do it yeah yeah i think he can do it but i bet it's going back to what you're saying this offense hasn't needed to function that way oh man it's such it's such a small sample but in those three games with davis mills he was on i mean such a ridiculous thing to take a three-game sample but since we were saying i don't think you can get to 160 targets he was on pace for 158 targets so three games stretch without stroud so so so what you guys are saying you two is that they need to put in their quarterback one correct yeah yes problems okay all right what's his floor so we kind of talked about ceiling outcomes for this year he doesn't feel like a wide receiver one we all kind of agreed to that but like what's his floor to you if he plays i hate saying it because we want to play 17 games for everybody but he's like a 15 game kind of dude yeah i mean i i think we can um when we talk about his floor i don't think we have to factor in injury um that that's assumed everyone has a floor of zero if they go and tear their acl in week one so assuming that he plays i think the issue would be receiving touchdowns if for some reason those don't come and he ends up this with the season with four receiving touchdowns like you know seems terrible and bad um what did what did justice jefferson have last year receiving touchdowns two yeah i mean so that's sad so it it can be bad um i'm just looking at my stats if i kept him i have him projected for 133 targets 80 receptions 1200 yards and i had him with nine receiving touches but if i move that to four and this is in the corpus of everyone basically in the entire league being healthy he would fall to wide receiver 30 okay so that's like because he the hopkins year that hopkins all of a sudden just fell all the way down despite playing all the games and doing stuff i have him around wide receiver 15 if he gets into the five or five touchdown six touchdown i would feel comfortable saying that he could be around wide receiver 20 on a worst case scenario and i had wide receiver 18 so kind of split in the middle of you can i offer a door for him because i think the consensus opinion is cj stroud's holding him back and this is all this is and this is what it's going to be forever so is there any room in your hearts to say that cj stroud goes back to at least being league average yeah i yes this this conversation i sound pessimistic it's actually made me a little bit more bullish on on cj stroud because nico has the ability to be a massive target earner it's just do they trust cj stroud enough to let him open it up and and we've seen cj stroud be an excellent quarterback he came into the league and was you know it's almost weird to remember a couple years ago how mocked it was that caleb williams went above cj stroud and you know it's like cj's the consolation prize was the was the prize was the star and now it's like oh goodness cj stroud was the quarterback five and redraft that next year like that's that's how everybody thought highly of him yeah you guys remember that primetime game when they met at midfield him and caleb like hey you know keep your head up a little bro you know you'll be oh that's right like literally since that moment how embarrassing now and and and i think caleb needs to give it back to them if they need to go back hey it's all right man keep your head up you're gonna be good in this league one day do you remember how bullish we were as a podcast because that the year stroud came out was bryce young cj stroud who's better and we were just universally like we like the stroud tape yeah and for that first year it felt really really good and it still felt like of those two i felt better about the nfl prospects of cj stroud but yes we we were we were um not super bullish on uh on bryce young either i think that made it a little easier yeah with stroud the one area he did well in last year is when teams decided that they wanted to just play a single high safety look okay so that he was seventh in epa per drop back when teams decided hey we're going to crowd the box we're gonna have one safety when they did two eye safeties he was basically among the worst in the league and you've kind of seen over time in the nfl how things have changed and taken away the deep ball but i think there's still the tools there well the argument the argument could be that their lack of a running game has been what's hurting them when we saw cj stroud at his best that was with joe mixon doing work right and so when they've got a good running game you can't just you know if you're going to have to play against the run it's not as easy to have the two high safeties and take the things away from the quarterback if there's no fear of of a run game so maybe that's why they made the investment and go to go get david montgomery to say hey you're gonna have to watch our running game and that could open things up for stroud so i i would say i'm gonna move my uh my five as his highest to you know number two okay i like that i was before we move on from the texans i do just want to highlight like stroud the name has such a negative connotation on it doesn't it right now but this is a player in his career he's completed 64 of his passes it's fine that he's averaged seven and a half yards for pass attempt that's one of the better marks over the last three or four years like that's that's up there the thing that has held him back is that touchdown rate and so we talked about this a lot in the udk this offseason like they could not run the football at all when they got in close they bring in david montgomery we think that's what they're going to do but what if they just struggle again inside the 10 yard line and they start throwing more inside the 10 yard line like i think you could see a random spike in that touchdown rate a little bit here for stroud so i'm kind of talking myself back into the into those positive outcomes i mean the numbers are better than i think the public sentiment feels and we also have to remember right now before any games have been played the last thing we saw from stroud was the playoff performance which was truly abysmal so that is the freshest thing on everybody's mind with with texans and stroud in a super flex league can you buy him as a quarterback three because that's like where he's being left for dead in right now as a quarterback low re qb2 yeah i think the value will be more there because he's still young he's going to get a second contract he it's going to get 60 million he's not 70 80 it's more jason's had an ongoing dialogue about that yeah it's if whatever if he waits long enough sure maybe maybe you know a couple years from the market i don't think he deserves 60 million dollars no he doesn't all right speaking of quarterbacks i want to throw out brock purdy's name because everything so far in his career has been outlier from where he's been drafted to you just look at his touchdown rates and what this guy does when george kittle's on the field he's just awesome last year he missed eight weeks and when he came back he completed 70 of his passes his td rate was 7.6 and yet i feel like brock purdy is one of those dudes it's kind of like what we do with lamar sometimes where we just go that's the td rate that's kind of what he's done he's an outlier kind of dude but this year feels like this weird breaking point with the 49ers and i know the offseason has had every every single piece of drama known to man with this team on the field off the field when they're on the field practicing all that stuff there's a range of outcomes for this team of having older players that makes it feel a little different than just saying i love brock purdy i love that he's an outlier so i wanted to kind of test that with you guys sure and brock purdy i will say this i to to start i think brock purdy is not given enough credit he is underrated for how because he was the last pick in the seventh round you know in in uh 2022 he's always been just a product of the system that's how it's viewed a lot is like oh well he plays for shanahan he listens and he does what's right but he's better than that you know you talk about the seven and a half percent touchdown rate that if you're at seven percent on a touchdown rate seven percent of your passes go for touchdowns that is an outlier high year that we see a couple of those every year like matthew stafford just had one um but you always expect that to go back to the league in around four and a half percent but in his three years 7.6 percent seven percent and seven percent three different three and four times that's just wild and i think part of that is also because you've got christian mccaffrey so when you get around the goal line it's not just rushing touchdowns with the running game it's passing touchdowns with the running game uh so i think that opens up you add in the fact that okay they're older but mike evans is a touchdown machine when i entered this offseason first name i thought was going to be a my guy this year was mike evans i when he went to the niners i was like perfect matchup that i often look for matchups that are made in heaven that are just like this quarterback and this wide receiver are the fit that you need and i i believe that in them and now i don't obviously he was not a my guy i i can't be bullish on him his muscles are made of tapioca at this point i don't know in the world so you know hopefully he can stay healthy he won't he can't certainly not in san francisco um but yeah i i do think that he does not get in brock pretty does not get enough credit as a quarterback i love that point i'm thinking back to last year remember that thursday night game where the niners basically played their entire backup team against the rams on a short week mac jones mac jones kendrick bourne turned into julio jones overnight um and there was like this whole like big media talking heads like is there a quarterback controversy in san francisco it's no brock purdy is the guy he has proven it year over year over year he's great um and i'm with you jason the concern for me on brock purdy is like it feels like this version of the niners is coming to a close somewhat quickly is that this year is that next year who knows but it's going to change yeah they're just an old older team and so it's kind of a short-term thing they feel like my dino junior roster just like that yeah they're just an old older team and so it's kind of a short-term thing yeah and from a you know obviously the nfl is closer to a dynasty league obviously because you've got you know long contracts and and roster management and all of that much more similar to that but when i when i look at when i think about my dino junior team i don't view it as a great team even though i've got great starters but when when you've got a handful of guys that are old you're so fragile you're so fragile you're so fragile you're so fragile you're so fragile i mean on mine i've got derrick henry and davante adams and mike evans and you know it's like i've i've just got too many of these guys so yeah there is a lot of fragility for the 49ers just based on age their opening schedule is interesting they play the rams in australia which we just got news by the way aaron donald will not be making the trip really yeah i'm not gonna hit the button but wow so we will be talking about that game on the main show today and he will be inactive and traveling with the team okay so let that wash over you think about that but they play the rams and then the week two is miami at home so they're double digit favorites and then the cardinals at home where they're also double digit favorites so it's an interesting little beginning of the season let's talk about his ceiling his floor and then maybe offer another door for him what's his ceiling if brock purdy is brock purdy so he keeps like a seven percent touchdown rate mccaffrey is alive kiddo's alive evan's alive and alive i mean like they're playing majority of the games what's his ceiling outcome bets quarterback four okay i have quarterback five down so we're in the same realm jason i have quarterback three down so three four five he can run like he gives a sneaky amount of rushing yards too where you kind of forget about that in his game now the floor outcome is me looking at this team and saying maybe some of them get older as we've kind of talked about maybe the touchdown rate finally goes to four and a half percent or lower and this team just can't hold up so my floor outcome is he's qb 15 and he's not really a difference maker i think right around there does make a lot of sense quarterback 15 ish so in that window we saw that actually in 2024 when he only had a 4.4 percent touchdown rate so what you're describing basically is going to decide this if Kittle can get healthy off the Achilles if Mike Evans can stay healthy if McCaffrey can push off the age curve another year like and Stribling is as good as he's been in the preseason in training camp there is that right to outcome if the injuries come in and Kittle can't get back and he does just have a drop in touchdown rate because he's throwing to Stribling and Debo Samuel at parts of the year and whoever knows who knows what else then that will happen and he will feel like a disappointment relative to what he can do so I think that quarterback 15 to 16 ish range makes a lot of sense for the floor yeah I've got to make quarterback 18 on the lowest outcome and that is because of a loss of weapons you know two years ago when he didn't have McCaffrey he was at that league average 4.4 like you said Betts he finished you know two years ago when he didn't have McCaffrey he was at that league average 4.4 that year as the quarterback 14 which was not that bad 17.8 points per game and four point passing formats which is not terrible so but this year you know you've lost more weapons if you lose Mike Evans Kittle McCaffrey for any stretch if you don't have those three players those are going to be some bad games what's funny about this team you you mentioned about Dynasty League and how the NFL often looks at that if you look at the 49ers since Kyle Shanahan has been there they've had some really low moments yes we're like they just punted the year yeah and they do if things go wrong and and credit to them as an organization to to Shanahan for being willing to do this um to the ownership and and general manager to not be like Kyle Shanahan's a bad coach because we won four games or whatever uh but they are they're all or nothing they go for it or they shut down shots they're all or nothing they go for it or they shut down shots they're all or yeah like I'm gonna go from 2018 to present but it was four wins then 13 six wins then they went on run 10 13 12 and then in 2024 we forget this was a six win team all right that had McCaffrey on it so it was a six win season a four win season and a six win season in the in this era yeah mixed in with all of these high double digit uh wins so so let's say that things bottom out this year it's it's one of those years that they end up with you know six or fewer wins or seven wins whatever what does that do for Purdy to you in dynasty because at some point let's just say Evan's contract does have some some language in it where it could be a one and done and then Kittle's also at the point where it's like he's a declining asset McCaffrey hopefully lives forever but it's gonna change what does that do bets for Purdy's dynasty outlook it's terrifying it's I mean it's terrifying because at that point you're talking about a team that it will be losing whether it's after this year or the year after like most of the production and relying on young likely unproven draft picks or having to just rebuild this thing in free agency and I think about that from the skill player position standpoint but also Trent Williams has been one of the best left tackles for the last decade he is another year older and coming off more injury and on the defensive side like you know the Bosa years and all that like kind of just feels like slowly this is kind of closing so not just offense but defense as well and yeah if that does happen where it does happen they do have one of those down years Purdy goes from being like this locked in I think undervalued top 12 option to being a guy that's like this is this is a shaky quarterback to my roster I feel like he goes from being an undervalued option to being a super undervalued option that I will scoop up everywhere in super flex leagues because people will be like saying what you just said and I will be saying they're gonna have draft capital from the bad season they've still got they always bounce back he's under contract for a long time and young so I will scoop up some Brock Purdy and in the worst case scenario his value will take a hit and yet Shanahan same thing with McVay McVay's had a couple of years where they just weren't good and you kind of knew they would figure it out but man like the 49ers and Jason you're you know the NFC West you've kind of lived in this world for a while have they just gotten free passes for being terrible at drafting they have well yeah because they went they win and they win and they win and they win and they win and enough games I mean if you're terrible at drafting and you win enough games and you're a Super Bowl contender and you're in the playoffs every year it doesn't you you can get some guff they get some guff but you're completely forgiven because it just doesn't the only thing that matters in the end is wins that's it I mean if you're a good so not like if you just stay at like seven or eight wins for eternity correct that would if you stay at seven or eight wins for eternity you're gonna have some turnover you're gonna have some turnover uh at your general manager and head coach the theory may have been there right like the Falcons maybe could be a team like that what a what a terrible place to be the the team or the city of Atlanta uh you being a Falcons fan what's worse being a Falcons fan or being a Cardinals fan no I think it's worse to be a Cardinals I think so too I think I would rather have be a seven win team every year that is not a laughing stock and your organization is not a laughing stock and your organization is not a laughing stock and your organization is not a unserious putrid stinky fart face of a of a franchise and bets isn't really allowed to enter in the conversation when he talks about anything related to their city now there's I'll just be here your city will riot no matter what happens you win lose no matter what any excuse for a riot that's what we're here for I mean that they say it sounds like a riot you know that's that's fun are there people bets that move there just because like I heard a lot of people say it sounds like a I heard I'm just here for the right here yeah yes yes yes Kyle come on Jason was laying it out like there are some teams like the 49ers that can draft terribly and still win but then there are other teams that draft terribly and lose imagine if the Niners actually hit on those like day two picks though over the years Ricky Pearsall which I know it's injury but still it was a first round pick yeah it it would be I don't I mean I don't want them to I'm so happy they don't hit on six is it okay sidebar here of the three other NFC West teams obviously they all have their merits for fantasy we love we love them as human beings yeah which of those teams do you want to see lose the most the 49ers by a mile I by by such a wide margin I'm rooting for the Rams this year because I don't really care that much about the Cardinals like and the Rams are such a fun story with Aaron Donald and and Miles Garrett and you know the Cardinals are such a fun story with Aaron Donald you know they're they're old and fragile as well but I love seeing a team that if they can wreck the league do it um so obviously I'm not so NFC West that like I I'm kind of jealous I was I was talking about this to someone recently when Jeremy is in a fantasy football draft Jeremy Al Borland our producer's giant Packers fan he overdrafts Packers because he's all in he does not want to be a Chicago Bear or a Minnesota Vike you know it's like it's against his spirit and I think there's a lot of people maybe the majority of people listening to this they're like yeah you're darn right I'm not drafting guys you know from those other teams and I couldn't care less I I you know because because my team sucks so much I can't have pride and and stand on a soapbox and say oh I won't draft those Niners uh but also I I don't like the Niners and and I do I do want them to lose that's like that's big Cowboys guy yeah I love them love them Jerry's world America's team it's great um it's funny you're you're bringing up Jeremy and his Packers fandom and last year for the Christmas party uh my wife got to witness this on full display because it was Packers Bears which was a pivotal game in the postseason race and Jeremy came with his cheese head on and just stressed out of his mind and we were talking about like coming out I was like who's cheese head that's all he is she was referring to Jeremy as cheese head and I was like oh excellent connection yes he will be there because she met him in a sequindy jacket and that's correct that's correct that's all I want people to think of Jeremy if you don't know what Jeremy looks like that's it that's all he is sequins jacket and a cheese head there you go all right take a quick break and we'll be right back all right we're back and we're going to hit two more names here talking about ceiling floor or door and I want to bring up Isaiah likely because is he now is he in your starting lineup in one of your dynasty rosters um let me go check I don't think he is he's one of those players that I have in a couple leagues and I can't ever remember did I buy in on this team for Isaiah likely or did I bench him because I know at this point who he is he signed a three-year 40 million dollar deal with the Giants and I'm going to bring up Isaiah likely because he's one of those players that I looked at this stat in 2024 when he had that really awesome week one game that he was the hotness and Mark Andrews airballed so since that game in 2024 he's averaged four and a half fantasy points per game so basically irrelevant unless Mark Andrews has been off the field and yet which Mark Andrews is now completely off the field yeah he does not share the field with Mark Andrews ever again we hope we pray I'm - I was trying to think of the math way about it. But is he starting for you? - He is not, which is, you know telling um i look little spoiler alert he's currently set up we haven't recorded the thursday episode yet for the fantasy footballers but he's currently my start of the week for week one um so i don't i'm not like completely off of isaiah likely i do have a lot of hope burns um not rope burns but hope burns hope burns that's what they say from uh his past you know he was supposed to be something special and he never turned out to be anything special he's not an athletic enough athlete to really usually dominate at that position but we have seen moments flashes of of utter brilliance as a wide receiver in a titan's body um they paid money we also have plenty of examples of titans going to their second team getting a big second contract becoming more involved than having a later stage breakouts the only position that that really happens for uh doesn't happen anywhere else but tight end there there's there's reason for it to happen that way because sometimes a team will use them to block or the development process to learn so many different nfl things for the tight end position also furthering growing into your man body usually a later breakout age for tight ends there's a lot to like here and then um obviously the target competition for a team that probably i don't i don't know that they'll throw much more than baltimore um but it is you know it's it's possible that the passing volume goes up uh because lamar jackson's rushing you know baseline is probably higher than jackson dart's rushing baseline as far as in their prime so there's a case to be made for isaiah likely i find myself more on the pessimistic pessimistic side of it because of the hope burns because of the hope burns that's i think it's it's tricky to talk through the most likely thing to happen here with likely because i think there is a very wide range of outcomes in one on one end he's the second target earner behind malik neighbors and that is enough for him to be a top like eight fantasy option now does that actually make a difference in the your lineup compared to the tight end 15 maybe not depending on the season but that's possible if he is just the second option which when you look at the depth chart it's not hard to paint that picture the other option is he is the same as every other non-elite tight end and he's like the tight end 20 and i wouldn't be surprised by that because he will have to have touchdowns to kind of spike and be relevant for fantasy and so for that it's like does jackson dart take that leap do they bring his design rushing numbers down in the red zone are they happy with the the backfield there because there's a lot of uncertainty on scottaboo and naji and tyron tracy and if they don't put the the ball in darts hands to make plays and kind of be the the point guard on the offense then the overall passing pie comes down as far as the the total so there's a wide range of outcomes here on likely i kind of find myself more on the lower end than the upper end and it's mostly because you know harbaugh had likely for years with a declining mark andrews and they still were hesitant to like unleash him fully so maybe that's just being a little bit stuck to kind of what's happened in the past but at this point man i kind of have a tough time buying in it it's a wide range of outcomes when i put down the ceiling and floor number and i almost feel like my attitude is based on which team he's on and like what his role is if i need him to be my tight end one i can see the path but like i prefer him to be my tight end two and a player that has potential to spike and i put all the way up at tight end five if things break right he's and dart actually is competent i mean they actually were top half in scoring last year which shocked me um especially in dark games but like that could happen but the floor is like tight and that's painful to say for a player that just got paid yeah i i have the exact same thing i've got him at tight end five as the ceiling play my floor is lower my floor is tight in 35 you could just do be completely worthless um you know i will say that some of the some of the beat reporters are have said that they expect him to be the number two target um when we were interviewing jackson dart and um cam scataboo in new york when we asked him who's that first pass going to and you know the the first name that he brought up and he brought it up without us you know seeding the question in any direction um was was going to isaiah likely um so there are reasons when i look at the the adp list of the top tight ends we we know historically if you want to be a difference maker at tight end you basically have to be the number one or number two target that like across the board if you're not the number one target for the team like a brock bowers or trey mcbride you better be the number two target for the team and and then that's that's totally fine you know we've we've had plenty of years where mark andrews was a dominant fantasy uh asset because he was the clear number um you go top to bottom and you go okay colston loveland the tight end three off the board he could be the number one target he could also be the number three target his target competition with rome and luther burden is higher than some of these others tyler warren i think he will definitely lead the team in targets the competition isn't quite as heavy there you've got keenan allen there now and josh downs but most of the names above them tucker craft you've got a lot of competition there with the the triad of wide receivers in uh reed watson and matthew golden uh sam laporta you've got two stud wide receivers ahead in in targets not to mention gibbs out of the backfield so when you look at isaiah likely you go okay neighbors is one obviously who's two a a day two rookie wide receiver with not the best you know college production profile in malachi fields like maybe fields overtakes him but it does seem like the route like kyle pitts last year was the tight end two and the reason why was because he was the number two target for that team uh you had drake lennon and then after that there just wasn't competition so that's a place where we are finding isaiah likely so on the on the high end range of outcomes that's the path to get there the other name when you're going through like who could be the one or two for their team that's like our biggest question right for these guys is i was i was thinking about isaiah likely or dalton kincaid who are both 26 years old and they're back to back in our startup rankings and i was just like going through that process of like which offense do i believe in more well that's an easy answer there who do i think is more talented well i think that's an easy one kincaid per route just crushes and crushed everybody and so that's one of those players where there's no hype right now on kincaid relative to what likely did this offseason signing a contract i mean likely's change of scenery and the money that they invested and basically what's happening is the entire world is saying this team showed with their actions and their money going out in free agency and acquiring him that they need him to be involved as a pass catcher nothing has changed for dalton kincaid and we haven't seen it therefore he's worthless and isaiah likely is sexy but if i had to pick between those two guys it is an unfathomably easy dalton kincaid for me so like if somebody drafted him in the first place he's going to be the one who's going to be the one you'd say they made a good decision i would i think dalton kincaid is a very good we thought you were going to take it he he's he's absolutely on my list the problem is you know me i don't i don't spend the middle picks on tight ends i'm either grabbing a stud or a late guy he didn't go late enough for where i would have pulled the trigger reached yeah whoa whoa whoa mike did but i definitely talked him into it that's that's definitely true so um likely is an interesting name i did one last last name i gotta throw out there we'll just get a quick ceiling floor door is luther burden because i feel like like the dynasty names for the make or break we'll probably go through some of these topics throughout the season but like luther burden parker washington like those are the kind of names that people are like bubbling up we talked about last week that he's our number one requested most talked about bold prediction player was parker washington but luther burden is definitely up there and with the news right now that we're waiting on what is roma and the fact that jason apparently thinks luther's just not good at the game that's what he says that's what he said with his rankings so when ben johnson said i'm buying luther burden stock we know what jason was doing behind the scenes he was selling selling it to ben johnson i made a great i know someone buying yeah it's a little bit selling to ben johnson um i've went through every single iteration of when a doomsday is off the field here's what burden does or vice it was pretty clear when they were both on the field they both weren't great yeah that the other one was off they were awesome that's my fear here with all three of these guys including loveland they're all just is that they're they're all good enough to be involved which means you're going to have so many down games for one of the three all the like every game one of the three is going to have a bad game and and you know you cycle that through week after week after week it's going to be a a sad uh turn of events for the draft costs you know loveland in the third um burden burden Jordan's fallen to where I think the whole offseason he was outrageously high. He was being drafted, you know, near enough his ceiling. You know, I saw him drafted as the wide receiver like 15 once. Yep. And it's like, okay, well, if we're doing ceiling outcomes, I guess I would say his absolute ceiling would be like wide receiver eight or nine. I put eight bets. Yeah, I put 12. Yeah, so, you know, where he does end up, the number one target, the first read, gets 145 targets, gets nine touchdowns, is excellent with the ball in his hands. That is a real big leap of a projection for a player who, you know, has a ton of hype and really good minimal film on tape. And so I see how you get there. But there are so many methods and ways where he can still be good, good at the game and disappoint in fantasy. Let me put this to the test. Guys, how many games last year was he a top 24 wide receiver? I think one. Yeah, I would have guessed one. It was two. And that's wild for that type of production. Because even in the playoffs, like, he was good on a per route basis. But you're really still having to extrapolate a ton of stuff. Like. The floor case is he's, like, wide receiver 30, 36. Yes. Like, way, way down there. And that's scary for the dynasty outlook. And that's where I kind of want to land the plane. Is let's say he is third in the pecking order. It's, you know, Loveland or Odunze. They're one and two in targets. Like, next year, Betts, will people give him a pass in dynasty? A pass as far as, like, you know, forgiving a down year? Or he's really young and so he still has a chance to just push. I think anything related to Ben Johnson and the Bears, we're going to go right back to the well. That's how I think the general public will feel. Okay. I don't think so at all. My belief is that if he has a down year this year and he's third in the pecking order, people will just be like, oh, we were wrong. I'm out. When people make mistakes and get burned by it in that way, I don't think they go back. Especially when a player doesn't have the draft capital. Like, look at how people view Romadunze and Marvin Harrison who do have the draft. And they have a down year on year two. So it's about expectations and what they've done. Yeah. When you disappoint so big on expectations, I don't think there will be forgiveness, especially for a guy who has just, he hasn't done it yet. If he's hurt. Oh, if he's hurt, it's going to be right back in. I was thinking about what Jamison was through the first two years. It was all projection. He was off the field. And it was kind of like still getting a pass. And rightfully so, right? Like, he's turned it around. But, like, it's funny. It's funny how we do that. Like, if he doesn't play, it actually helps his value than if he played and he wasn't as good. Yeah. Oh, for sure. Because it's always, well, what if? Oh, it's the sexy excitement. Betts, any last burden thoughts? My last thought is his week. Well, this, actually, I shouldn't say that. I was going to say it because Rom is banged up. So who knows? But, like, if Rom is healthy and Loveland is healthy and Burden is healthy, whatever the stat line is, in hindsight, will feel obvious. Like, he comes out and he smashes a week one. Of course. How could you not see this coming? He comes out and he's third in the pecking order. Guys, how could you not see this coming? Colson Loveland and Rom, you know, so. I can't wait to hopefully appropriately react to week one, but I'm sure we'll overreact. So it'll be fun next week. No chance to appropriately react. There's only overreactions. My priors are 100%. That's what they will be. Everything that I thought I will not bring up next week on the podcast, it will not show up at all. It will just be a thing of the past. Next week, we are talking overreactions. We'll give you our dynasty. Stay with us all season long. We'll talk to you again next week. Goodbye. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast. If you want to take your dynasty skills to the next level, check out thefantasyfootballers.com.