What’s News in Markets: Refiners Cash In, AI Stocks Wobble, Homebuilder Blues

Hey listeners, it's Saturday, October 10th, Ami Mani-Moise for the Wall Street Journal. And this is what's news in markets. Our look at the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Let's dive in! The S&P and NASDAQ hit new closing highs powered by a familiar group of tech giants riding the AI boom. But beneath the surface, the picture isn't as bullish. Since the S&P's previous record in August, most of the index's industry groups have actually lost ground. And the ongoing sell-up in the bond market is making things worse. The yield on the 10-year treasury hit its highest level in more than two decades this week, pushing up borrowing costs and putting pressure on everything from banks to real estate stocks. For the week, the NASDAQ was up 0.6%, the S&P advanced 1.2%, and the Dow gained 0.9%. Now let's take a closer look at some of the week's biggest movers. One of the top performers in the S&P was the energy sector, as the war is in Iran and Ukraine boosted profit margins for U.S. oil refiners. Attacks have damaged refineries in Russia and the Middle East, and some Asian countries have pulled back on exports, creating a global fuel shortage. That's pushing up prices for gasoline and diesel even faster than the price of brunch crude, which jumped 2.4% this week to $104.72 a barrel. And that's where refiners cash in. They're benefiting from what the industry calls "a crack spread," which is what happens when the price of oil has risen, but at a slower rate than the price of refined fuels. As the gap between the price of crude and the price of fuels widens, refiners make more money on every gallon of fuel they create. We'll expect three of the country's biggest refiners to report record third quarter profits. Shares of Valero Energy, Marathon, Petroleum, and Philip 66 have more than doubled this year. Valero ended the week up more than 6.5%, while Marathon and Phillips rose 7.4% and 5% respectively. The worst performing stock in the Dow this week was Caterpillar. Miners fell more than 5%, marking a reverse and fortune for the company, which has been riding the AI infrastructure boom. The construction and mining equipment maker has benefited from surging demand for its generators, which are used to power data centers. But this week, Caterpillar got caught up in a broader sell-off in equipment stocks after federal regulators announced an investigation into competitive practices. The Federal Trade Commission and Agriculture Department say farmers have complained about barriers to buying equipment and getting the services needed to keep it running. Shares of Caterpillar rivals Deer and Agco also tumbled 9.7% and 9.8% after the announcement. And Caterpillar wasn't the only AI beneficiary under pressure this week. Chip stocks also tumbled. After the financial times reported that open AI's revenue was lower than previously signaled, raising concerns about how much to chat GPT maker can afford to spend on the infrastructure powering the AI boom. Shares of NVIDIA dropped 1.8% this week, while AMD lost 4% and Micron slipped 4.3%. And one number that stood out this week, 7.4%, that's the current average interest rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage and the highest in nearly three years, which is very bad news for home building stocks. Rising borrowing costs threatened to weaken demand for new homes that was already tepid at best. That's putting pressure on builders to offer expensive incentives to attract buyers. And it's not just new construction feeling the pressure, across the housing market, sellers are increasingly cutting prices to compete for a shrinking pool of buyers. According to Redfin, 21% of sellers reduce their asking prices during a four week period ending in September. State Street's home builder ETFs slid about 2% this week. DR Horton shares were down 0.1%, while Lanar and Poltig Group fell 4% and 3.2% respectively. And now you know what's news in markets this week. You can read about more stocks that moved on the week's news in our live markets coverage on WSJ.com. Today's show is produced by Michael LaValle, with supervising producer Melanie Roy. I'm Emani Moise, have a great weekend, and see you next Saturday. (upbeat music)