In this episode of “On the Brink,” hosts Matt Walsh and Nick Carter discuss recent crypto developments. They review a documentary on Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, praising its portrayal of Hal Finney and Len Sassaman as potential collaborators, given their cryptographic expertise. The hosts highlight a major security incident where Kelp-Dao, a liquid restaking protocol, was hacked via LayerZero bridging infrastructure, allegedly by North Korea. This led to bad debt on Aave and a broader reassessment of DeFi risks, as yields may not compensate for such tail events. They also note New York’s lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets, which they see as a regulatory backlash. Coinbase’s Quantum Advisory Group released a position paper stressing the need for blockchain upgrades to counter future quantum threats, avoiding complacency. Other items include Meta enabling bank accounts for AI agents, acquisitions like Kraken buying BitNomial, and a bizarre incident where a man manipulated a Paris temperature prediction market with a hairdryer, leading to his arrest. The hosts question the value of such markets and call for better design. Overall, they emphasize the importance of security, regulatory clarity, and proactive improvements in the crypto space.
Matt Walsh and Nick Carter are partners at Castle Island Ventures. All of these expressed by them or the guests on this podcast are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of Castle Island Ventures. Guests in those may maintain positions in the assets discussed in this podcast. You should not treat any opinion expressed by anyone on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of their personal opinion. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Brought down by Bad Mortgage Investments, Lehman, which has 25,000 employees will be liquidated. The government loans American International Group, AIG, $85 billion. This is a different kind of market and the Fed is asleep. The federal government is stepping it to stabilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two mortgage giants that have been threatened by the housing crisis. The bank of England has pumped 75 billion pounds more to Britain's ailing economy with a new round of culture to do easy. The printed couple trillion dollars and all of a sudden people started to worry. So out of this worry, we have something called a Bitcoin. Welcome to On the Brink of Matt Walsh and I'm Nick Carter. I feel like so much has happened this week. A lot of really funny stories and also some disturbing stories too. Yes. What did you think of the founding Satoshi documentary? I thought it was good. I consider myself a bit of a connoisseur of these Satoshi investigations. I think I've read all of them at this point. And this I thought was the best attempt to date. Yeah. I don't know if they got the answer. Are we going to spoil it? Are we going to keep it secret? I think we can spoil it. I think it's everyone's talking about it online. So they said that their best guess is that it's Half Indian lens assessment together. Half Indian doing the back end work in assessment doing the white paper. Which is actually a really good guess. It is a good guess. Because a lot of us thought it was Len already. But Len publicly derided Bitcoin, it's a bit strange. It wasn't known to be technical enough or to have I think have programmed in C++. C++. C++. Or to have coded on like windows, I guess. But how had that experience, very deep technical and cryptographic expertise. But it couldn't have been how because how was running a road race when Satoshi was sending emails? So James and Lop appeared in the documentary running through the road race example of what he was sending. Satoshi was sending emails to my current at the same time how it was running a road race. So it had to have been either not him or he had to have had a partner. And what I didn't know was they literally worked together, those guys. Yeah, they worked at PGP together. I mean, PGP, the amount of talent that came out of that place, unbelievable. Yeah. I thought it was a really good guess because Satoshi did have this unusual combination of acut, certainly academic chops, plus the engineering chops, which it's kind of like very rare as that one person would have that. And the case for Len is very good. Like what they didn't cover in the documentary is Len or Satoshi cited this very rare document that was like a symposium paper from this conference in Belgium that was not distributed online. And so you had to have been at a university that had the paper. And that was what was cited. And I think, I don't know if this is confirmed, but someone out there said that Len had a flicker account and posted a picture of himself that had that paper in the background, one of the pictures. I didn't know that. So that I think is a really strong piece of evidence because it implies that Satoshi was an academic in Belgium, basically. Yeah. So that's very strong. So the combo is something I'd never thought of before, but it's very compelling. I just thought above all else it was a very well done documentary. It was very touching. The health in the parts were very moving. Yeah. I mean, it's very sad, frankly. I mean, both of these men, we lost them way too early. I mean, Len was in his 30s when he died. And how, you know, I said, I was so very touching. They interviewed Fran, his widow, who hadn't given a lot of interviews. I mean, for good reason, and Meredith, who is Len's widow. And ultimately, regardless of whether they were weren't Satoshi, they were obviously giants in this sort of cryptography, cypherpunk space, and left a huge legacy. And I think it's just right that they get a homage like this. Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, I thought the part with House form or coworker, the coworkers at PGP when they were just talking about what he was like, that was particularly moving. And just that these guys that, you know, were alleged to have started it, did it for very pure reasons and never made any money out of it. It's very different from the kind of scammy crypto element that has emerged since then. Yeah, I mean, that's what's always set by Coinapart is you just cannot impeach Satoshi's motives, right? They were just so pure. And obviously we're in a pickle now because Satoshi has abandoned us and left us with a million quantum vulnerable coins. Fine. But yeah, I mean, the motives are pure and you'll never be able to recreate that. I thought it was interesting that they were not even able to get in touch with Wade Eye. They couldn't even really fund an official picture of him. That felt a little bit under explored in the documentary. Yeah, it was strange, right? I mean, Wade Eye is still, I think, Wade Eye is active on Twitter maybe even. Well, there's a different Wade Eye that works at 1kx, but I don't know. I was Wade Eye, B money, Wade Eye, active on Twitter. I didn't even know that. I think so. I mean, I think I've seen some stuff from Wade Eye since then. Yeah, I'm glad, you know, I'm glad they did this now because a lot of these people that were contemporaneous with those guys, they're not going to be around forever. They're getting older. Yeah. I mean, Zimmerman, the fact that they were able to get him on camera was pretty remarkable. Yeah, so I, you know, there might be some style of metric analyses in the future. They get done that give us some more insight here, but I think this is probably the best last attempt we'll see of this nature. And also, I've lost faith a little bit in the styleometry argument because they, as they point out in the movie, which I, this is like a very, Lossies andopsis, I strongly suggest you watch it. In the movie, they say how in Len, I think, were they knew about Stylometry. In particular, Len. Bramcoines. Len spoke about that. And so, you know, they said Len, Bram said Len posted on the Cyroquunks mailing list under a NIM for a long time that he never found out. Right. So these guys were aware obviously of Stylometry for deanonimization. They could have in theory been adversarial in that respect. So, you know, basically assuming that people would take a look at their writing in the future to try and deanonimize them. So it kind of stands to reason that these experiments with Stylometry have not worked. Right. Well, I would highly recommend everyone buy it and watch it this weekend. I think it's one of the rare, you know, documentaries about crypto that's actually well worth it. Yeah, and it's, you know, these guys are not crypto natives at all, but they really did a ton of work to figure out how to engage with the industry in a kind of a respectful way. Yeah. I mean, some of the people they interviewed were very fun. It's like, what does Bill Gates know about this? That's, yeah, I was watching it. I was like, why is Bill Gates on a Bitcoin documentary here? Yeah, I mean, very few of the people interviewed really have anything to add here, but especially some of the investors, but it was very well done. And yeah, it's just rare to see a piece of content at this scale that it is respectful. So the Alcor site, do you know that Ted Williams is is in balm to there? I don't know if that's the right word, but Ted Williams is also at that site. Is that right? Yeah. And I don't know how I feel about that. But yeah, what like the cyber punks and the extropians have some kind of overlap. I didn't realize that there were multiple extropians in the cyberpunk movement. I thought it was just Phine that kind of believes that he could get brought back to life. Yeah, and if you ever read Phine Brunton's book, I think it's called Digital Cash, have you read that one? No. It's actually one of the lesser known books about kind of the origin of the cyberbunks in Bitcoin. He explicitly makes that connection. Like, while part of the reason they cyberbunks wanted this kind of electronic money was because they planned on coming back to life in the distant future. And they wanted an asset that they could return to. And so that's a very, and Phine appeared in this documentary too. Where do you put the keys? You got to go find them when you return, unless you can memorize them, I suppose. Yeah, and I mean, it's not going to work because they didn't, they didn't plan for quantum. It didn't quantum upgrade. Yeah, I mean, I should have left instructions or something. That's tough. That's tough. All right, well, moving on, Cast Island content, I sat down with Brandon, the CEO of Meow, talked about banking AI agents, very exciting what they're doing over there with Meow. Your AI agent can now have a bank account. Meow has really been on top of it, you know, with first going to kind of like the high old checking during the banking crisis and gaining a ton of market share in that capacity, then moving on a stable coin support before basically any different types are doing it. Now being a first mover on banking AI agents. Yeah, is AI agent spend they're going to be able to spend money and they're going to be able to control the world and hack everything it seems like. So a couple deals here before we get into the news. First up, Hata, that is a crypto exchange and
Malaysia they raise 8 million from Bivet. Then it's crack in the cryptocurrency exchange they have acquired BitNomial. BitNomial is a CFTC licensed derivatives exchange. This is a deal for up to 550 million in cash and stock. Congrats to Luke in the BitNomial team. Yeah, really cool to see. Congrats to those guys. Next up, Kio, K-A-I-O. That's a purpose built blockchain for RWAs. There is 8 million from Tether. Systemic Ventures. Further Ventures and LazyDigital. And it's Bethog, which is a crypto-native online casino. They raise 10 million dollars from Rockaway, Will Ventures, Sixman Ventures and others. Cluster Protocol is a decentralized AI protocol. There is 5 million from Dow 5 and paper ventures. All right. So should we get into this kelp-dow situation? Yeah, you know, an uncomfortable feeling is when a crypto protocol that you've literally never heard of gets hacked to the tune of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars and kind of ruins the party for everyone. And that's what happened this week. Yeah, I mean, do I want to even attempt to explain what happened here? I guess I'll try. So there's something called kelp-dow. This is a liquid restaking protocol on Ethereum, mostly used for looping, kind of like retail, you know, yield seeking behavior. They had an attack vector with layer zero, which is the bridging infrastructure that allows you to move tokens from one blockchain to another. They had apparently hired layer zero to run this bridging infrastructure. And that was the point that was hacked by the North Korean government. Now what ended up happening was the attacker printed a bunch of kelp-dow tokens. Ave, the largest defile lending protocol got stuck with bad debt as a result of that. So they basically printed a bunch of tokens, put it into Ave, where I'll be able to withdraw other assets, you know, Ethereum, stablecoins. Is that basically your understanding of the attack? Yeah, that's it. Yeah, because if you can trick the Ave protocol into thinking that you have genuine collateral, then you can withdraw real money, which is what the attackers did. And it seems like kelp-dow was using effectively a one-of-one multi-sig via layer zero's infrastructure. So a lot of finger pointing, you can point fingers at any of the parties here, actually. But the net effect is, Ave has some bad debt. I don't know how that's going to be resolved. Arbitrum was able to freeze about 70 million worth of eth here and rescue it, causing people to yell at them for not being decentralized. And DeFi as a whole has taken a massive hit. People are kind of re-underwriting the risks, looking at the kind of risk return profile, the risk premium, basically deciding that the tail risks here, because this is not the only recent hack, the tail risks here are so material that the rates they're being paid to lock to LP on a defile or not worth it. So huge mess, I will add, it's not necessarily, we don't know for sure that it was North Korea. So I actually did a podcast that'll come out tomorrow, won't spoil it, but there are guest claims that it actually probably wasn't even North Korea. Really? I thought that the address clusters were compatible with prior North Korean hacks. Well, we don't know for sure. Yeah, huge mess. And lots of lessons to be learned. The Arbitrum Security Council, which is a kind of a very funny like self-aggrandizing name, they did freeze 70 million worth. And now we're sucked into this debate as to whether DeFi is worth it if it's all freezable, or maybe we should be freezing more. I think we should be freezing less. Look, if North Korea is hacking stuff, freeze all day long. I don't want to hear any of these arguments about, oh, we need to be pure. This is a security council, it was what, a nine of 12 group of people that had to come together. It wasn't like there was just one person that shut it off. We should be trying to freeze everything that North Korea gets. Yeah, it's kind of ironic because part of the issue was the insufficiently large multi-sig, of course, the one of one. Right. So you do sort of, and then a lot of these funds went through Thor chain, right? Which has a very big multi-sig and is basically not freezable to many people are upset about that. But it's kind of like, well, it's a blessing and a curse to not be able to freeze. So now there's just a big debate. I mean, DeFi isn't really DeFi if every transaction can be questioned by some authority. I think there's just bigger questions here. Number one is you kind of pointed this out is, are these yields that are attracting people to DeFi actually worth it? Are you getting paid enough for the risk? I think very clearly the answer is no. The vulnerabilities here would warrant you getting compensated a lot more than what you're getting compensated. The second thing I'm curious is just whether or not these institutions that are pushing into DeFi, offering these yield bearing accounts, will they continue to do that? And you can have kind of a socialized loss on Avae due to no fault of your own. That's a bad position to be in. Yeah, that's exactly it. I mean, what we need is more diligence from the DeFi protocols themselves over what assets they list and support. Because if you're listing 30 different assets and each of them has a 5% chance of being hacked in a given year, altogether, now you have a very high probability of something going wrong. And so you're exposed to the security practices of not just you, but every other organization that is listed in your pool. So it's a really bad security model. Something's going to have to change. The other thing is people are freaking out about meathos. This wasn't even a smart contract exploit. This was just, I don't know, precisely what happened. Some people think it was an eclipse attack on the one validator, but it's a little scary that we're entering into this world of more powerful tax against a pretty battle test and infrastructure. But there's always weak points and weak points increasingly look to be not the smart contract, but actually the just operational infrastructure of these protocols. Yeah, people are saying that this is an RPC node issue at layer zero. Yeah. A big mess. I think we can expect DFI TV else to contract for a while until DFI gets his house in order. All right. Moving on. Did you see this thing out in New York this week? So New York attorney general, Latisha Jain, says filed lawsuit against Coinbase in Gemini, claiming that their prediction market products violate state laws on illegal gambling. Thought that was an interesting move this week. We've obviously seen other states get active there. I kind of forgot Latisha James was still running the show down there. Yeah, she's still at it. I mean, I think we're going to see one of these in most blue states. There's certainly a bit of a backlash against the prediction market. So I think maybe this only gets out of the Supreme Court in the end. Did you see that there are a few politicians that were identified by Calci as betting in their own markets this week, too? Yeah, it was a big week for insider trading. There was one of the more amusing ones I've ever seen was this Paris temperature market. Did you see this? Oh my gosh, this one's great. So there wasn't a ton of volume on this because why would anyone bet on the temperature in Paris on a given day? Yeah. I don't know why anyone would do that. They were, there's an oracle tax. So they were using a single sensor near the Charlotte, a goal airport. The guy bought the 22 degree, that's in Celsius, 22 degree option, which was trading at basically zero, took a hairdryer, heated it up, the sensor triggers, the market closes, he wins, and then gets arrested. Unbelievable. So this guy went out there with a below dryer and just put it on the sensor in order to win this and then promptly got arrested. Yeah, kind of makes the case that these markets need to be a little better design. I keep thinking this, like there was actually market on finding Satoshi, by the way. Oh, really? And in the end, they all, there was no single entry for more than one of these names. So they all closed it, no. In the end. So it's like, you just need better market design, like better contracts. I mean, why would you be betting on the weather in Paris? How is that a thing that people want to do? I know, like I can get betting on the Oscars or sports or something, but who wakes up and it's like, yeah, I think it's going to be 19 degrees in Paris today. Yeah, I mean, let's do some like pro social stuff in this prediction market space. Is there any of that or is this all just like complete degenerate stuff? I think you're making Latisha James's point for her. All right. So speaking of Coinbase, quantum corner here, Coinbase's quantum advisory group has released a position paper on the state of quantum computing, talking about blockchain security, talking about which blockchains are vulnerable, kind of a one-on-one overview as well. I thought it was pretty good. What do you think? Yeah. So this is not Coinbase.
directly but it is an independent academic group that forms their quantum advisory board. So, KSU Kira, Scott Ayrinson, of course Dan Bene, Justin Drake, Sri Ram, Vagon Labs, Yehuda Linda, Linda and Dalia Malki. So, quite a credentialed group and other people was very, very good. So, I strongly recommend it. They did not adopt the posture that we have seen many of these kind of cell-side-as-take, which is, well, you know, there are the alarmists and then there are the deniers and we're in the middle, we're the nuanced middle and we see no imminent threat. So, we can talk about it. Coinbase does not take that posture. So, Coinbase says, "Yeah, there's no imminent threat but you actually do have to upgrade now." Yeah, so, which is, in my opinion, the correct stance, I know some people disagree with me. So, you know, they say interestingly the debate on timelines, timelines to cryptographically relevant quantum computer is largely irrelevant since migrations should be planned for and prepared now. We have high confidence that a large scale fault-tolerant quantum computer will eventually be built as such blockchains must prepare for this eventuality. The board's view is straight forward. The time to start preparing is now not when it's urgent. So, they completely understand the point that me and many others have been making, you don't have the luxury of waiting to one of these things is imminent because the transition takes a long time. So, I thought this was really the most thoughtful paper on this that I've read so far. I mean, what do you think this does to just general speed and performance of some of these Alt L ones? With Bitcoin, you can stand for kind of a smaller block size, you can stand for a queue there. The real use case that's taken off is the store value use case, but it strikes me that we're just going to have some very slow blockchains that used to be fast. Yeah, I think unfortunately I don't want this to happen, but I think because blockchains of different trade-offs, they deliberately explore between safety and performance, you're going to get a fragmentation of standards. So, Bitcoin is a very skeptical flat-est-based cryptography, which is a newer but not really that new. Cryptographer, I was talking to someone that does this outside the crypto context, they help organizations prepare for the post-colonum world and she said to me, like, well, obviously, lattices are safe. Like, everyone thinks that. But the Bitcoin doves don't. So, there's an extra level of paranoia in Bitcoin land, so they want to use hash-based signatures if anything. Altra say, extremely bulky. There's tricks you can do to make them smaller, but the tricks add enormous amounts of complexity. So, it may be the case that Bitcoin signatures go from 60 bytes to 10 or 50 kilobytes, and we just have to eat that, which is a big problem. Do you think it's just the case that we haven't had enough eyes on these post-quantum signature schemes that we haven't really tried to optimize them and make them fast, and we'll have similar progress that we had with traditional elliptic curve signature schemes? Yeah, I think we can find efficiencies. Like, some of the Bitcoin doves have, you know, they took a look at Sphinx and they came up with shrimps, but there's a big, big trade-off there in terms of implementation complexity. So, it could be the case that we get more optimized versions for Bitcoin. But what I think is going to happen is, yeah, Bitcoin will probably add this at some point, but I don't think it'll be lattice-based. I think it'll be hash-based. Meanwhile, other blockchains can't accept a performance degradation like that because they're not like Bitcoin, and they'll go for Falcon or lattice-based, or newer types of post-quantum algorithms which are emerging, which there are some more experimental ones. And so now we're going to get this fragmentation. We're previously the whole industry was kind of on elliptic curves and the implementation assumptions were standard, and it was clear how you could do MPC and things like that. And I worry that we are now because blockchains have different priorities. We're going to get this explosion of standards. And the wallets are going to have this absolute nightmare trying to reconcile them and keep everything safe. And that it might be the world that we end up in. Yeah, I think you're probably going to end up with these orchestration level companies that try to help these custodians integrate into the various schemes. But it seems like this could also push some of these blockchains towards more centralized implementations just to not be as slow. Yeah, so I don't know what's going to happen, but I completely agree with Coinbase. The upgrade process has to start now. Do you see Sam Bankman freed elected to withdraw his motion for a new trial? He said he didn't think you'd get a fair hearing from New York's judge, Lewis Kaplan. So it's been funny to see the portfolio of things that Sam invested in fraudulently has now continued to grow. So anthropic is worth a trillion dollars. I think he didn't accede investment in cursor. Oh yeah, cursor. They put $200,000 into a $400,000 precede round there. And that cursor announced this week that what they have given Elon Musk the option to buy that company at $60 billion post-space XIP. Yeah, so Sam is making the case that he as he made some very prescient investments that I don't know what the case is. He's not a fraudster. I mean, he was still he still broke the law. Hey, I stole all the money, but I made some good investments with it. Yeah, I mean, we probably did a bunch of those deals though, right? That was like the argument the Martin Skreli made. Yeah, like I kind of embezzled funds. So earmarked for one thing, but I ended up making money in other ways. So it's not a crime. It's still a crime, unfortunately. Still a crime, Sam. So it is a tragedy in a sense though that Sam really was a generational investor or at least he oversaw an organization that appeared to have a lot of talent on the investing side. Yeah, I mean, right place, right time, right access, like deep in the EA community, that's where a lot of this AI stuff came out of. And I think his portfolio would have been worth something like $120 billion. I think it does reflect badly on the trustees actually. I mean, there's all these things that fire sale prices and sort of got people's money back, but not really. Yeah, I mean, if you have that much demand to buy your anthropic shares at that level, you should take a step back and actually ask yourself if you're running a comprehensive process. John Ray was quite dismissive of AI. Yeah, and this is one of the cases where they ran the process quite quickly, quite expediently. It would have actually been very much in the favor of the creditors if they had done it in a more leisurely manner. But it was, it was so haphazard because some of these things moved really quickly, but there's other things including portfolio companies of ours where it's still tied up, right? So these things haven't actually traded. Like people have been trying to buy things, but haven't been able to get a fair hearing on it. Yeah, so what did they get back in the end for all the assets that they dispose of? It was like $12 or $16 billion. Yeah, it's still ongoing. And of course, all of the crypto was dollarized. So they're above 100% for sure. But this could have been, is definitely could have been made whole without dollarizing the crypto claims. It could have denominated and it could have been par and crypto terms, it was par and dollar terms, but it's not great if you're a depositor. Definitely not. Well, he says he wouldn't have gotten a fair hearing. I think he would have gotten a very fair hearing. He just wouldn't have liked the answer. It's my take. Yeah, I mean, I think he deserves his time. But I also think that some of his co-conspirators deserve more time, frankly. Yeah. Yeah. Some people never went to jail. That's for sure. So this is your favorite topic. Justin Sun is suing World Liberty Fie for unlawfully freezing his WLFI token investment that's now worth roughly 75 million Eric Trump and World Liberty Fie dismissed the claims is entirely mirrorless. I'm actually sympathetic to Justin Sun for once. Wow. Believe it or not. It's the first time those words have ever been said on this. I hate to say it, but I think Justin Sun has a point. I don't think you should be allowed to arbitrarily change the vesting terms just because you don't like when you're investors. Does this mean that Justin Sun needs to go to California and stand in a courtroom in order to get a hearing on this? Is he allowed to be in the US? I mean, anything's possible in this day and age. Yeah. Well, I'll continue to not really track this story. I'll just let you cover that. But speaking of Tron, Heather has frozen $344 million worth of tether on Tron. What's your best guess on who this belongs to? So this was flagged by US authorities for being associated with illicit activity. The rumors I'm seeing are that it was IRGC affiliated, which we had anticipated would be the case, actually. So now that Iran's economy has started to collapse and they're very much sanctioned, was very foreseeable that they would move not to becouse.
but to stable coins, of course. And there actually is a vibrant set of crypto exchanges in Iran. That's a very real thing that exists. And there's, of course, all these ho-al-on OTC brokers in the Middle East. Although I assume that news is tightening a little bit as the U.E. is not friends with them anymore. But yeah, I mean, I, the rumors I've seen are that this is RGC, but nothing confirmed. There was another interesting story regarding Tether and Iran this week. Did you see this? This was the boat incident? What exactly happened there? Yeah, so you might have seen there was audio of a tanker captain released of the captain effectively begging the RGC boats to not fire on his ship. And he kind of said, well, they'd paid the toll. Are you shooting at me? And it's looking, this is Fatman Tera who's ruining this, but it's looking like the ship may fall in victim to a crypto scam. No way. So someone paid money to another criminal? Yeah, someone fraudulently representing themselves as the RGC toll authorities. They pay the toll. They expect they'll go through on molested. They get fired upon by the Iranians that never received a payment. And yeah, this whole mess takes place. That is a bad feeling to be that ship captain to realize that you paid however much you paid to the wrong person. Yeah, so I mean, you'd have to have the op-sec of crypto fund manager if you are running a tanker in the straight-of-horaboo's. That's brutal. That's a tough one. Double whammy. So did the ship get just torpedo? Like what happened to it? They eventually turned around and they got shot out a little and turned around. Cheesh. So MicroStrategy had another big week. $2.5 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases. Since the last time we recorded this podcast, this SGRC product is just on fire for these guys. This is the largest preferred out there period in all of capital markets. Yeah, I guess public preferred. Yeah, so Bitcoin has gone up a lot recently, so they have kind of bought themselves more time. The whole SGRC situation, it's more a matter of the rate of change. So basically they can buy a lot of this, but not an unlimited amount because there's only a finite amount of MSTR common that they can use to monetize to pay the dividend. However, if Bitcoin goes up a lot, it sort of like is a mini bailout. Yeah, they've kind of reset the clock here. Well, that's a whole business plan, right? I think they have something like 18 months of cash on the balance sheet right now to service these dividends, but price of Bitcoin goes up. They're going to be in a lot better spot. Yeah, so a lot of premature announcements of strategies, death, they live to see another month. Would you make of the Calci announcement that they're moving into launching crypto perpetual futures on the platform? Yeah, I mean, it makes sense. So they have a big consumer base and every financial brokerage wants to be the everything app. Although it seems like they're competing a little bit with their own partners here. Because there's a lot of brokerages working with them that they're now competing with. Don't you think perps are just much more popular offshore where you can really lever them up? I just don't think you're going to be able to offer these 10X products in the US. I think people just like the form factor of perps now. I mean, I have seen traders trading equities on perps where you could easily do it in the regular way. Yeah. But so they prefer to trade tokenize equities on perps because they just understand that market structure better. All right, some odds and ends this week. Wall Street Journal had a big, big article on New York Stock Exchange, how a 233-year-old Wall Street institution went all in on crypto. So it was pretty good. I mean, New York Stock Exchange does seem to be all over this in terms of doing partnerships. So you've got to give them a lot of credit there. Yeah, I mean, especially the polymarket deal. I mean, there's not a lot of Wall Street firms that aren't doing something in crypto now. Yeah, at this point, I think everyone but State Street has done something, right? Goldman have surprised me over how much they've floored it with crypto over the years and then ultimately not done anything. Well, they have the desk, right? They have the desk. They're doing stuff with Canton. Like, they're at least doing stuff. But the largest custodian other than Bony, I think is State Street and I don't think they have anything. And then they have one of the largest asset management firms with SSGA and they also have not done anything. Yes. Speaking of a asset manager that has done things with crypto fidelity, of course, fidelity to glass, they had a great report this week called getting off zero, evaluating Bitcoin in 2026. Getting off zero, yeah, that's like, you know, the price of the crypto assets in 25 now not zero anymore. So, we'll put this in the show notes. Quite a good report. All right. So I think that's it for the week. There's a lot of stuff going on outside the industry that, you know, sports related that I just don't really want to talk about. The draft is tonight. Is it tonight? It is tonight. Day one of the draft is tonight. I don't really know what's going to happen in the draft. Yeah. I mean, as a Patriots fan, the draft doesn't ever really matter that much. But for the commanders, it's a big event because we're in a really picker. Yeah. I don't know. I haven't, uh, I haven't really spent much time on the draft. We're picking second to last, but maybe we'll trade out of it. Yeah. I will regrettably admit that I don't follow enough college football to have a sense at all. That's the, uh, the quarterback from Indiana, I think, is consensus number one. He was the Cuban kid, right? Yeah. He'll go number one, I think. But after that, I don't know. I think we need to shore up the offensive line. So we will let you know if we find Satoshi this week. We'll keep looking. Yeah. Check out that documentary. I think that's it for the week. Everybody have a safe and healthy weekend. And we will see you on Monday.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast hosts discuss a documentary on Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, suggesting Hal Finney and Len Sassaman may have collaborated on Bitcoin.
A major DeFi hack involving Kelp-Dao and LayerZero caused bad debt on Aave, raising concerns about risk and security in decentralized finance.
New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets, labeling them illegal gambling.
Coinbase’s Quantum Advisory Group released a paper urging blockchain upgrades to address future quantum computing threats.
Other news includes Meta’s banking services for AI agents, several crypto deals, and a manipulated weather prediction market leading to an arrest.
Summary:
In this episode of “On the Brink,” hosts Matt Walsh and Nick Carter discuss recent crypto developments. They review a documentary on Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity, praising its portrayal of Hal Finney and Len Sassaman as potential collaborators, given their cryptographic expertise. The hosts highlight a major security incident where Kelp-Dao, a liquid restaking protocol, was hacked via LayerZero bridging infrastructure, allegedly by North Korea.
This led to bad debt on Aave and a broader reassessment of DeFi risks, as yields may not compensate for such tail events. They also note New York’s lawsuit against Coinbase and Gemini over prediction markets, which they see as a regulatory backlash. Coinbase’s Quantum Advisory Group released a position paper stressing the need for blockchain upgrades to counter future quantum threats, avoiding complacency.
Other items include Meta enabling bank accounts for AI agents, acquisitions like Kraken buying BitNomial, and a bizarre incident where a man manipulated a Paris temperature prediction market with a hairdryer, leading to his arrest. The hosts question the value of such markets and call for better design. Overall, they emphasize the importance of security, regulatory clarity, and proactive improvements in the crypto space.
FAQs
The documentary investigates who Satoshi Nakamoto might be, suggesting it could be Hal Finney and Len Sassaman working together, with Len doing the white paper and Hal the back-end work. It highlights their cryptographic expertise and pure motives.
They found it well-made, respectful, and the best attempt to date, noting it covers the tragic early deaths of Len and Hal and their pure, non-monetary intentions.
Kelp-Dao, a liquid restaking protocol, was hacked via LayerZero's bridging infrastructure, allowing attackers to print tokens and withdraw real assets from Aave. This caused bad debt and led to a re-evaluation of DeFi risk premiums.
The council froze about $70 million worth of ETH, sparking debate over whether DeFi should be freezable in such cases, especially against North Korean hackers.
The lawsuit claims their prediction market products violate state laws on illegal gambling, part of a broader backlash against prediction markets in blue states.
A bettor bought a near-zero option on Paris temperature, used a hairdryer to heat a sensor near an airport, won the market, and was arrested for manipulating the outcome.
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