Week 9 Picks & Predictions: Ohio State-USC, Florida-Georgia, Wisconsin-Iowa & More

So you're telling me, Joel, hold on. You can't play great defense. Run the ball, take care of the football, and play really good special teams, and that works. Yeah, it does. Iowa, four turnovers, and gave up a punt block. Is Jesus coming? Like this is crazy. (upbeat music) Hey, welcome in to the Joel Glad Show. I'm Joel Glad. This show is brought to you by Hilton Hilton for this day. We've got picks and previews here. We go. Didn't go great last week, guys. Ofer. This is it. We're coming back. Let's go, shoot or shoot, right? Go for four. I went over four in minor league baseball several times. Of course, I had to quit and go play football afterwards. I'm not quitting this job. I'm just gonna keep taking my shot. So here we go. My game, not making a pick in this one. So why don't I just give you a nice little preview here? Wisconsin at Iowa. Big noon Saturday, Gustavine and I will be on the call. Two teams that I think are really secure in their identity. We know that from the outside looking in. We know that about Wisconsin this year, and we've known it about Iowa forever. Since Kirk Ferenc has been there and even prior to that. Let me start with Wisconsin, because they've been a real surprise this year. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that everyone was shocked. Shocked that Wisconsin was gonna stay with Luke Fickle, and they were not gonna fire him and move off of him last year. They had gotten shut out in the middle of last year's season twice, back-to-back games, actually. But what happened is that they started to play better at the end. And I know I've touched on this a couple of different times here on the pod. But when you're in a really deep hole and you start digging out, it takes a while. You can be making progress and climbing and still not be out of the hole. And that's what we saw from Wisconsin in late last year. They actually got a couple of wins against ranked opponents. They show up this year. They have to play Notre Dame right off of the rip in that first game at Lambo. They played pretty well for about two and a half quarters. They get blown out eventually by Notre Dame. And then they just go back to work. And I tell you what, this team has an identity now. And you got a credit, Luke Fickle, for making an adjustment. Because he tried to go air raid to start when he was at Wisconsin. It wasn't working. And he's gone back to a tried and true philosophy in blueprint at Wisconsin, which is defense and run game. And when I look at this team, you can point back to late last year. But it's not just late last year in the way that their entire team started playing. But more specifically the way their defense started playing. They rotate a lot of guys up front. But then they've got these two really good young linebackers. Mason, Posa, and Cooper, Catalano. And these two guys were true freshmen a year ago. And they each got put into the lineup late last year in a loss at Oregon in a game in which they played pretty well. Not just those those two, but the entire team. And these two true freshmen started giving them some belief and identity on the defensive side. And they have been in there ever since. They're the best of friends, their thickest thieves. These guys are good players. And the defense has gotten better every single week. And now here they are as a real contender this year with a schedule in front of them that I think that there's a path. I think you have to at least consider the possibility of Wisconsin being a potential 10 and 1. I thought this season, a real turning point for them because their offense was able to get some things going late in the game and come back. Was there a win at Penn State? Wasn't pretty. Wasn't pretty. But they get that win at Penn State night. There are moments as a team when your locker room starts to believe. I think that was that moment for Wisconsin. They've got Colton Joseph at quarterback giving them some consistency at the position. Remember, they've started so many quarterbacks in the fickle era. It was a revolving door of transfers and injuries that forced them into a position where they didn't have a lot of consistency at that position. Joseph has given them that consistency, not just in the lineup, but also in mentality. This guy has a lot of energy. He's athletic. He can run the football. So you've got the plus one run game with the quarterback incorporated in the run game. And even though they're not blowing the doors off of anybody from an offensive production standpoint, they have an identity. Okay. So this is a group that I like. I like a lot defense and run game wins games. They also don't turn the ball over in the last three games, no turnovers. They also play great special teams, five blocked kicks on the year. You can play great defense, run the ball, take care of the football and play really good special teams and that works. Yeah. It does like awesome. And we're seeing that and that it's almost like a mini version of Indiana, guys. Kurt Signetti rode that to a national championship. Now he happened to have a quarterback that elevated himself and certainly you've got to be able to throw the ball and do some things that maybe Wisconsin, you know, it could struggle with right now. But on the special team side, and I'm going to try for this name here, Bob Ligasheshki, is their special teams coordinator. It's one of the first times that fickle has gone outside and actually hired a full time special teams coordinator. He always used to just let one of the position coaches handle that. So now Bob Ligasheshki comes in and their special teams are a real weapon. So they're winning the field position, they're winning the turnover battle and they're winning games. Now, the risk is emotional win let down on the road. How many times have we seen that before? Because that has happened every single week of this college football season. They go on the road to face a team in Iowa who is going to be back to the grindstone after playing one of the most uncharacteristic games that they've played ever under Kirk Ferris. Ever. They turned it over last week four times and had a punt blocked at Minnesota and they lost the game in a tightball game where Minnesota basically walked it off. Iowa four turnovers and gave up a punt block. Is Jesus coming? Like this is crazy. I don't know what's happening. That can't happen weekend and week out, right? So it's an anomaly. You're not going to get that version of Iowa this week. I really don't think so. So it will be incumbent on Wisconsin to not have the let down that we've seen so many other teams have. You know Iowa wants to run the ball. They are banged up at the running back position, but their offensive line is very good. I'm a big fan of of Reese van der Zee, the wider series, the one that caught that ball in the corner of the end zone against Michigan. But the thing that I most love about Iowa is their defense and more so than that. I don't think that there is a single unit in college football, not one, not a single unit that has more identity and a stronger identity and a more long standing identity than the Iowa defense. They are going to do what they do and they do it extremely well. They are so simple that they get to pour all of their energy into what you do, because they're not thinking about what they have to do. It's just a part of them. Their defense is simple. They do it really well. Now they get to just comb over your offense, wear your little tendencies, wear your alignment tendencies. What's the split of your wide receiver? What happens when the back is offset from the tight end? What happens if your back is to the tight end? Are your splits in your offensive line any different? What happens when the wide receiver has his left foot forward versus his right foot forward? The quarterback has his stance just a little bit off. What is the center's posture? What is the tackles posture? This is what Iowa thinks about. So they know what you're doing and they're focused on you and that's an immense amount of pressure for a quarterback in an offense to play against. That's why I love this team. I think the ingredients for this team are very, a very Iowa-S Kirk fairness did a great job building this team. You went out into the transfer portal, got a bunch of guys that were lower level guys. There were older, more experienced smart players that could come in and produce and be Iowa players with a chip on their shoulder. That's how they should build themselves. That's how they should and they're going to play better. This is going to be a cliche game of like turnovers in field position. I really believe that. Both defenses are very good. I think both offenses, if you just went out there and you thought to yourself, establish field position. This isn't a drive for this drive getting points, but it could be building towards a future drive getting points. That's the type of mentality you have to have as an offense. Speaking of a game like that, let's go to our next game Ohio State at USC, Ohio State favored by six and a half. Now we get into the picks. Come on. Come on. No whammies. Can we have a good week of picks? Come on. Here we go. Ohio State, favored by six and a half on the road. Biggest question in college football, everybody is Julian Sands replacement. Who's it going to be person foremost and will that player be effective? Nobody knows. The reason it's so important is not just because it's the quarterback for Ohio State, but because they have the best player that we've seen a long time as a wide receiver. So who's throwing it to Jeremiah Smith? That's the biggest question. And yet it's not the most important element of the Ohio State team. What do you mean Joel? How can be the biggest question and not the most important element? Most important element of this team is going to be the thing that they lean on down the stretch, which is their defense. Their defense is outstanding, outstanding. Their defense of line is outstanding. They are getting better every single week. I watch almost every play. Even when I'm not covering Ohio State, I watch a lot of college football, I watch a lot of film Ohio State. It's one of those teams. I watch every snap that they play. And the defensive line that I saw play against Texas, which was, eh, okay. And the defense defensive line, same guys, by the way, defensive line that I saw play against Indiana, vastly different, vastly different. They're ability to blow up the offensive line. Get off blocks. And in particular, like a guy, let me just give you an example. Edrick Houston. He's playing like a man. Edrick Houston is playing like one of the premier defensive tackles in all of college football right now. His get off is his block destruction. The way that he makes plays after being blocked. That's an example of that. The biggest advantage in the overall game Ohio State and USC is Ohio State's defensive line against USC's offensive line. USC's offensive lines not playing very well at all. We saw that last week against Wisconsin. They couldn't protect my ABA and they couldn't run the football negative 17 yards Russian the football the offensive game plan for Ohio State for me has got to be flexible when you go into this game with whatever questions you have at the quarterback position you have to understand that you have to play the game offensively. The way that your defense allows you to play the game offensively you can't go in with some aggressive game plan and all the sudden create short fields for your defense you have to you have to allow your defense to dictate what you need to do offensively that's a play the game in front of you. I talked about this with Kurt Signetti on Monday. Go back and listen to that podcast. That's the way I think Ohio State Ohio State should attack this game. Breadcrumbs for USC suggests that they are not even close to what I thought that they could be or anticipated that they could be or even what I thought they were last week. Their run game is a hundred and third in the country and yards per carry just to give you a like why is it different than Oklahoma for Lincoln Riley run game. It's not the passing game. It's not the defense. It's the run game. The biggest difference between Lincoln Riley at USC and Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma is the lack of run game for the Trojans a hundred and third in yards per carry a hundred and third at OU what were they Joel number one in his tenure. They ran the football protected the offensive line in that regard against the pressure. They couldn't do that against Wisconsin. They have not been able to do that during the course of the year. By the way, Jade Mayov and needs the run game because he's better in the RPO game. Sloppy wins are the breadcrumbs that I would look at. Sloppy against Rutgers. Sloppy against Washington. Sloppy against Penn State and now here comes Ohio State into this game. If I'm Ohio State, I'm thinking about field position with my offense. Whatever quarterback runs out there for the buck guys, if on every single possession, they just had a goal of getting two first downs. Eventually, that puts them into scoring position. Eventually, that wins the field position battle. Eventually, it makes my off goes goes out there backed up and eventually you win the game. Two first downs per possession for whoever runs out there for the buck guys. That's what I would do. What do I think is going to happen Ohio State 20 USC 10. I am saying Ohio State covers a six and a half. Okay, here we go. We'll go a little quicker on some of these others. Florida against Georgia. Georgia is favored by 11 and a half. That's just too many, isn't it? Georgia's coming off of that loss. They have been on a biweek. So Kirby's been able to lean on his team. They will play better. There's no doubt. They will play better than they did against Auburn. All those mistakes that we saw against Auburn, the turnovers, the penalties, that's going to be blown out of there because Kirby's been able to lean on these guys. My issue is that I don't know what Florida team is going to show up. Is it the team that, you know, has wins against Ole Miss in Texas or the team that has losses against Missouri and South Carolina? You know, like I don't, I don't know. There's questions about who they're going to start at quarterback. Do I like that facing Georgia? No. You know, is it going to be five low? Is it going to be Jones? I think Florida has to run the football. They're not going to sit there and throw it. I don't think they can be an independent throwing team. They've got to be able to run first. And if you're telling me that this is a trenches game, they're not going to win a trenches game with Georgia. I'm just like, I'm sorry, that might be narrative based, but they're not. Now, however, their defensive line has gotten after you look at that Texas game. They had five sacks and 11 TFLs in that game tackles for loss. So they might make things a little bit more difficult on Georgia, which means in a game in which I don't know which team is going to show up. I've got to take the points. I can't sit there and say, yeah, Georgia's going to be up, you know, 34 to 17 in this game comfortably and then give up a late touchdown and lose. I got to take the points. Georgia wins the game, 31 20. And I'll take the 11 and a half towards Florida, because which team shows up the team that beat Texas or the team that lost the South Carolina? I don't know. I don't know. Hey, college football season is in full swing. And this is the time of year when you start looking ahead at the games that you really want to go see in person. Once you pick the match up, the next step is finding the best deal on tickets. And that's where SeatGeek comes in with over 35 million downloads. 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Maybe the win against Houston. It has not looked great. They're actually favored in this game by three and a half. Arizona has been quietly taking care of business. I've told you about this over the last couple of weeks. Arizona is pretty good. Pretty good. Since that loss to BYU, by the way, they led it at half time against BYU in Provo. And that was a BYU team that still had LJ Martin, the big 12s offensive player of the year from a year ago, you know, like BYU without LJ Martin beat Notre Dame. So tech, they're looking at this Arizona team thinking to themselves like, this is going to be a real test. And no, if a feeder comes in as one of the most experienced quarterbacks in all of college football, Brent Brennan is a heck of a football coach. They've got some momentum on their side. You know, they, they housed Cincinnati, who just beat Texas Tech. I, I think Arizona's got a great chance in this game. The tech defense has covered up what has been an anemic offense for large stretches of the season, including last week. Texas Tech has five defensive touchdowns over the last four games. Five. And you look up, they didn't score an offense of touchdown until the final minute against Sensei. Will Hammond is not played well. Now they've got to face a defense in Arizona that had it's very creative. Under Danny Gonzalez, their defense coordinator uses his safety as well. It's a, it's a unique style of defense from a structure standpoint. And it's hard to prepare for. I covered them in the holiday bowl last year. It's a really good defense. They were excellent last year. They've been very good this year. Now this year they're getting after the quarterback. They're actually six in the country and sacks against an offense that is really struggling. Now my biggest problem with this game is that it's in love it because I love the love at crowd. That crowd's going to be insane, but it could have a little panic to it, right? After the frustration of what they saw on the road with their team losing to Cincinnati, I'm going to trust Fafita in a big game. It comes down to the rank to match up. Do you trust a quarterback or location? I'm going to go with quarterback. I'm going to go Fafita and his 42nd career started. He throws it for 300 per game. Um, text defense in their past defense is bottom 15 in the country. I've got to go Arizona. I'm going to take the three and a half here and say Arizona 24 20. They get a win and keep themselves very much alive in the big 12. So Arizona plus three and a half Utah at Cincinnati. Utah's favorite by six and a half. Cincinnati coming off of that emotional, you know, crowd storming win over Texas tech. That was awesome for them. There's no doubt Utah has been playing with fire a little bit. They were kind of close to Kansas. They were close to Colorado. They had to pull away from Houston last week after being down 10, nothing at halftime. And yet this does come down to match up. If you're just looking at the match up, I'm looking at this team in Cincinnati and they played a couple of weeks ago, West Virginia, who by the way has an offense that is centered around a quarterback running the football. That's Michael Hawkins. Michael Hawkins had over 500 yards in that game, 500 yards. So is Cincinnati going to step up and stop Devon Damper and this high powered Utah offense. I don't think that they are going to. So now you're having to tell me like, well, now you've got to get into a scoring match up. You got to get into a high flying affair. Well, they couldn't do that against their Arizona. Now they're going to see a Utah defense. This is one of the better defenses in all of college football. Since he has to run it well with their quarterback, JC French, they're running back cold tab. They ran it for over 250 last week, but this is a different animal because Utah has a top 10 run defense in America. So watch out for Utah's defense controlling this game. I think the emotional win, you might have a little bit of a letdown, even at home for Cincinnati. I think Utah wins this game 35-24 and they cover the six and a half. Again, Bearcats lost a shootout to West Virginia. They got blown out by Arizona in their last couple of games before the tech game. That tech game might be more of a reflection on tech than it was on Cincinnati. Give me a Utah 35-24 and they covered the six and a half. Last game here in Northwestern at Oregon. Oregon is favored by three and a half in Eugene. Things are not going great. I was surprised to see this line, to be honest with you. Oregon just fired their offensive coordinator, Drew Maringer. Jay Johnson, who was an analyst, is going to take over. He's been an OC before. He was the OC at Michigan. state also at Colorado in his past. Is it going to get fixed just with coordinator? It might. It might. They're banged up at wide receiver. They had discipline issues at wide receiver. We'll see they like Evan Stewart, that whole saga off the field. Is he going to be out there? Jeremiah McClellan still out with the foot injury. I think the game is actually more about Northwestern than it is Oregon. And the reason I say that is because Northwestern is buttoned up. David Braun is a hell of a football coach. Chip Kelly has done a marvelous job as the offensive coordinator for Northwestern. His creativity, he's running kind of a almost a wing T almost an academy-esque style of offense that is very difficult to prepare for because of its unique nature and everything that you have to stop. All the different directions that the ball can can go. The reads that are taking place, almost an option style attack. Aiden Childs is playing phenomenal football the quarterback for Northwestern. He's been great for them. He's been excellent. He was one time at Oregon State, obviously, and then was at Michigan State. And now he's going to Oregon and it's a bit of the homecoming because he initially was at Oregon State. Remember, he went with Jonathan Smith to Oregon State. Then he followed Jonathan Smith to Michigan State. And now he's at Northwestern. Now he's going back to the state of Oregon. He's going to be motivated to play well in this game. And then I look at Oregon and I'm like, ah, how much do they have here? It's not about their talent anymore. It's about their buy-in. What buy-in am I getting from the Oregon ducks? Because it's going to need to be significant on the defensive side to stop that rushing attack and the unique nature of that rushing attack for Northwestern. It takes an incredible amount of discipline and commitment to go in there and stop a rushing attack like Northwestern has. Does Oregon have that? Obviously, the news this week about Dante Moore, not great. Like, I feel terrible for Dante Moore. I hope he recovers soon. His future is unknown at this point. All those guys that thought they were draft picks from a year ago on the defensive line. They have not been good stopping the run. I've got to take the three and a half. Oregon has not shown me, shown me, trying to get there. My grammar is not the best, but whatever. I'm a football guy. Talk about football. Oregon has not shown me at any moment this season that they can play anywhere near their potential. They haven't. And I think that they're going to need to play one of their better games if not their best game to beat a Northwestern team that will not beat themselves. Kurt Signetti tells me this in our meetings all the time. You know, we talked about his win streak and all this stuff. In order to win the game, you have to first not lose the game. Northwestern doesn't lose games. You might beat them, but they don't lose games. And I think that's an important distinction. Where's Oregon at? I'm getting three and a half with a team that doesn't beat themselves. That's going to run the football. That's disciplined. That's toughness. That is in it. They're in the thick of things. I think things are real for Northwestern. You think those practices don't have energy around Northwestern? Meanwhile, is Oregon have energy right now? I hope they do. Dan landing is a great coach, but man, I don't know. So I've going Northwestern 24, 20 Northwestern. I'll take the three and a half. So here's my picks. Let's recap them. I've got a Ohio State 10 point win. I'll say they cover the six and a half over SC on the road. 11 and a half is just too much. I think Georgia beats Florida. I don't trust that I'm going to I'm going to get the best version of Florida. Meanwhile, I believe I'll get close to a good version of Georgia. But 11 and a half is too many with what we've seen this year. So I'm going to take the 11 and a half towards Florida. I'm going to take the three and a half for Arizona. I think Arizona actually goes and beats Texas Tech. Tech's past defense. Not great. Fafita can throw it around. The bread crumbs for tech is suggested offensively. They can't do much. Their defense and their defense is ability to score touchdowns is actually covered up what their offense has been. So I'll take Arizona. I think an outright win. I'll take the three and a half there. I think Utah covers over Cincinnati. I'll I'll give the six and a half for Utah. That Bearcats team really struggled with Michael Hawkins and West Virginia, like I was talking about. So I think damn pure and that offense can run the football. And then I will take the three and a half for Northwestern. I think at this point in the season Northwestern is a better team than Oregon. So I'll take the three and a half there. I hope these are right folks. We just went over. I'm doing my best here. I'm trying to give you all the ins and outs of why I'm making these selections. That's why I made these selections. If you want to disagree, that's totally fine. I might disagree as well. I'm sure some of you out there are just going to be like, those are his picks. Fade them. Can't argue with that. Please tweet, subscribe, all the things, and enjoy college football.