Week 8 LOCKS 🔒 Best Bets, Against The Spread Picks, Moneyline Sprinkles & More! | Cover 3

Cover 3 is presented by our friends at PNC Bank who would like to remind you that seemingly boring plays both in football and in banking are what can lead to big wins. A beautifully designed square space website is the difference between thinking about photography school and selling your portraits online. It's the difference between giving away those cookies you just made for free and running your cookie career. A beautifully designed square space website is the difference between having a movie reviewing hobby and a movie reviewing career. Squarespace, because no matter what you're into, a website makes it real. Use offer code Difference for 50% off select plans, terms and conditions apply. Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny and Bud Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports. That's Tom Fernelli, that's Danny Cannell, that's Bud Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live youtube.com/cover3 And everywhere get your podcasts on the man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. Hey, hey, hey, the Cover 3 tailgate. They are declaring West Virginia over a wagon. Hey, hey, there is only one wagon committee. You can submit an application to the wagon committee to see if that's the case. Will West Virginia be on someone's card here in week eight? We will see because it is Thursday. It is 11 a.m. Eastern time, the very best time of the week. But before we get into week eight, let's begin as we always do with a look back at the week that was. All right, Bud Elliott, three and six week for you. The wins were Alabama, Tennessee, under 52. Down Kentucky, plus six and a half. James Madison, Georgia State, over 57 and a half, the losses. Indiana, plus three and a half, Memphis, minus six and a half. Notre Dame, minus 10 and a half. Baylor team total, over 27 and a half. Maryland, minus four and a half. And Cal, plus 10. Takeaways from the week. All right, so always kind of just go through my head what I better than again, right? Indiana, three and a half, absolutely, Memphis, six and a half. Absolutely, just like, you know, turnovers, miss, feel goals, guys stepping out of bounds. Feel good about those. Baylor team total, no, clearly. Like, they just completely no show that game. You know, Maryland, Cal, kind of the same thing. So like Cal, especially, man, like, look, they look like they didn't want to be there. So bad week for me there. The wins, Alabama, Tennessee, not lucky, Kentucky, not lucky. The three star, not lucky. Yeah, so I probably deserved, I don't know, like four and five, but still not good enough. But listen, we don't beat yourself up. The three star excellence is out of control. We just invented this thing yesterday. That's a good, yeah. And you've been just an absolute monster. 32 and 33 on the season, but up five and a half units thanks to those three stars. Tom, what's the three star record that Buds got right now? It's much better than all of ours is he is six and one. The rest of us are three and four. Six and one on the three star lock. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Let's watch watch out, pay close attention to every single one of these. You never know when the three star hammer will be dropped. Five, three and one for me, the wins were Ohio State in the third quarter. And Indiana in the fourth also came through with SMU minus nine and a half in West Virginia. Team total over 31 and a half ended up taking a loss on that first half under quite a hilarious loss. Honestly, I mean, just if if I'm going to lose at least allow me to laugh with it. It was just Texas Tech covered it by themselves in the first half also ended up taking an L on the Miami second half minus nine and a half. And that one was a painful one. That was my three star. I was right there with you with Baylor and that no show was extremely disappointing. And what what amazing friendship from Tom Fernelli who got me that extra half a point on the first half under 27 here on the lock spot that led to a push. So thank you Tom. I appreciate that good looking out. Five, three and one for the week has me at 36 and 29 for the season. Four or four a week for TK were pushing it around, but we're making money. Thanks to a three star banter. Penn State Michigan under 43 comes up for Danny Canal as does Ole Miss minus five and a half. And the Wisconsin UCLA under 43 and a half throwing a little lock fight win as he was backing up BYU. Didn't even need the 10 and a half points with the counted for him. I end up getting a loss on Indiana, a loss on Purdue, lost on Houston, lost on Oklahoma. Four and four week for you DK. How are we feeling? I'll go with Bud's approach like which one would I take again? The one that I regret the most and this was the mistake that I made was thinking that Oklahoma and John Matier had figured it out. Like just stop throwing the ball to the other team. And yet he had three interceptions. They still haven't figured it out and Kentucky is for real. That's the one that has haunted me this week. But other than that, I'll take it. Four and four for the week 31 and 33 for the season. Tom, four and five week for you, but you along with DK along with Bud, little three star winner Utah first half. Let's get out and you got out while the kittens good. That ended up being a sweat against Colorado. Mississippi State team total under 20 and a half also comes through Oregon State team total over 34 and a half. And the under 47 and a half in North Carolina Duke losses the Latifa on Indiana Washington Purdue under two lane team total under you had the BYU team total under and the pit Boston college under 43 and a half. Yeah, really nothing I regret making. I would do them all over again, even the ones that lost Indiana, especially. Yeah, you guys have such mature approaches to this. I'm just the goofy meme every single time. Like, yes, I would do it again. I would absolutely do it again. All right, let's put it behind this eyes ahead on week eight. So I ask you gentlemen, you already lock it up. Let's do it. Since 2005, the under games between services is 40 dash nine and one. Give me an over and this one as well, little two for one special. I was a sicker last week, y'all were watching the good games. I was live betting the hell out of UL and talking. My blue plate special five star locks are coming five star master lock lock it. I'm I'm living and dying every point of every cover. From the locking chair to your eyes and ears, let's begin with the weeknight action and a reminder that if you want to catch Saturday's portion of the show, check out CBS Sports HQ around 10 a.m. Eastern time. It's a nice lead in right into Danny canal. Who's going to be in studio? Danny canal, Damien Harrison. I need to find out it's a surprise. Yeah, hey, come in. So watch live. Yeah, it's a watch Emily proud driving the ship right there. So it'll be covered three at 10 college football pregame at 11 a.m. All on CBS Sports HQ. The premiere and elite way to get your Saturday started now. What about an elite way to get this weekend started? I got JMU at app state great fun game in Boone also Liberty at Kennesaw State ECU at Memphis. Anybody got a Thursday lock? I'm gonna lay it with Memphis man. I yeah, like I looking at this on a downed out basis Memphis dominated to Lane. I don't think there's anything really wrong with them. They just couldn't hold on to the ball at all. It was just kind of a crazy game. It's like I didn't really see any concerning that should carry over to this week. So go ahead and get me give me Memphis. I'll lay the 10 and a half. You got any tens out there. I'm about to get 10. Yeah. There you go. Tom. That's right. It's just giving out gifts. Oh, deserved. But ECU's out of this. You got any thoughts? Is this mostly Memphis? I think it's mostly Memphis. I think Memphis can really like light up the scoreboard and bunches. I don't see you can hang. Okay. Anything else from Thursday. All right. Okay. Nobody goes into the rock unscathed. Let's go. Let's go. Give me an app state. I'll take the points. What is it? What's my number I can get with the best? 12. Yeah. Yeah. There's there's there's 20 12. So a couple of things to this. Both of them are playing on a short week. App states six days jam jam you five day work week for them. They do have to travel. They're busing in five hour bus for a bus ride. Singleton's supposed to be back for app state. But even if he doesn't Henry Hasselback played pretty well for them last week. I just think this is a tough spot and a lot of points for James Madison. Talk to Billy Napier this morning. He was on the radio show. He was awesome. He was great. He's given up play calling. Said he was an idiot for not doing it when he was at Florida. Like I thought that was interesting. That he was pretty open and honest about that. I think they could still win. But I think this game's going to be fun and close 12 and a half for you by the way. Perfect. Absolutely gorgeous day in the high country by the way. I mean, we're talking like low 60s as the high 55 around kick off just a should be an awesome, awesome atmosphere. You know, every all the app state fans in the tailgate go ahead and enjoy the day in Boone. Cover three said you're you're out of class. You don't have to go anymore. This is it. Just go hang out King Street set up the tailgate, should be a good one. Okay, anything else for Thursday. Nope. All right, moving on to Friday, Duke on the road to go take on Virginia UMass, Yukon, Army, Tulsa, Air Force, Wyoming, and real spooky season, NC State at Stanford. Hey, does anybody have an anti-lock? Do we have a five star anti-lock? Because NC State with an injury report longer than a CVS receipt going to play at Stanford. That's an anti-lock. I don't have anyone there, but I do have one from Friday. Does anybody else have a Friday? Okay. So last year, the stick went up into Mikey Stadium and pulled off a little bit of an upset. So maybe you're going to hear that the United States Military Academy's got revenge on the mind, and I hear you. Kale Helms has been awesome. This Army offense has been awesome. I think that the defense might be a little bit of an issue here going up against Tulsa. Baylor Hayes had a good game last time out competition, obviously taken into consideration. But also this is a Tulsa defense has done a good job of attacking generating turnovers and being able to use that to help them win. Tulsa also played Navy a couple weeks ago. So we've already built in a little bit of that option prep in a game that is a short week. I will take the golden hurricane. I'll take Tulsa minus the point and a half. Like it. Anything else from Friday? I'm not locking anything up, but I would take Yukon, except for that hook on the 14. So it's past the point where I'm ready to go. Yeah. And they were saying like I read somewhere. I wish it didn't cry. I didn't write down. You had it. But like pop Watson was in a walk through. Yeah. So like, I don't know if that means he's back this week, but you know, the always stellar and on the ball, Jake Winderman who works for CBS sports, CBS sports news and research puts together an awesome sort of injury report update every single week. And there's been just a like a pop Watson Memorial pop Watson update. I mean, he's just been there for a month, right? We just go through. And yes, but it is questionable right now. So we could be we could be going back to Logan on that one could pop back in it, but CBD on what we're going to get from the UMass quarterback who's been out since week five. So it's since since he's been in the lineup. Anything else for rum for Friday. All right. Coming up on the other side, we turned the page to Saturday with some of the biggest games of the day. Oh, we can arch and start turning it around all that and more. 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I'm going to take the under 54 and a half. Is that what we're looking at here? I don't think there's any 55s. Let's take a look. So here's my I'll go ahead and now there's no. My thought is that as we discussed the way that Ole Miss defense had certainly since the off week looked as though they were starting to take steps forward. I was saying, you know, that makes sense. This is a group that had a lot of turnover. It was, you know, very heavily portal reliant and the fact that they would be a group that gets a little bit better a little more in sync, a little more connected over the course of the season. Not just the by week is something that I think is not nothing. So if we're going to look at that, then that's a reason to think that scoring could be lower going up against the Texas offense that I don't think is going to be able to just magically fix everything overnight. And I still think that even without Colin Simmons, this Texas defense is really, really good big time athletes. And the kind that if Trinidad gets too cute, I'd be able to make him pay where Ole Miss is able to move the ball effectively, but maybe not always cash in when the when the field gets a little skinny when they get into those scoring opportunities. Look, I understand that of all the the sweats, this may be among the sweatiest, the idea that you've got all of this offensive skill on the field and you're taking an under, but I just see that I've thought about this game a lot. I've looked at, you know, Ole Miss getting it done, Ole Miss on the field, Ole Miss spread, you know, first half under this out of the other. I think that the one side of this that I'm the most confident in and is that I think the total is a tick to high. Wouldn't be surprised if we see this one being maybe decided in the high 20s. I'm going basic here. I'm not nearly as confident in the Texas defense as you remain to be without Colin Simmons. I, you know, they are the thing that has made that defense especially good is that it is very good at pressuring opposing quarterbacks and it's very good at sacking opposing quarterbacks. And Colin Simmons is responsible for a quarter of the pressures and over half of the sacks and his pressure rate of 20.3% leads the team at least among guys who play regularly by miles. So now he's gone and teams have been focusing their blocking schemes and everything towards stopping him and they failed to do so. But now all the guys that weren't winning nearly as often in one-on-one are going to be seeing more tension go their way and I'm just not as confident that they will be as successful as they would be without Simmons. I think you removed that guy from the field. It becomes far more difficult for everybody involved. And then the other side of it to me is just a quarterback battle. We have discussed for weeks our feelings on archmaning. Danny's done tape breakdowns like you want to blame the play calling fine blame it you watch the tape. It doesn't really seem to matter what plays being called when it's there. He's not seeing it far too often. Trinidad is Trinidad. He's probably the best quarterback in the country. I know I feel that way. He's the one guy we have seen in big games not really lose his level of play. Whereas every other quarterback you look at we think is one of the best in the country when they face great defenses they suddenly look a whole lot more mortal. Trinidad doesn't Trinidad balls out against everybody. Give me all miss. Give me the three and a half points. All right. We actually have a buddy who has some thoughts here. Let's go straight to Austin. I hate this line. It feels like Vegas is begging you to take Ole Miss and it makes me nervous. They were obviously expecting an offensive bounce back from Texas against an Ole Miss defense. It was inconsistent pre-by-week. This game will be telling for that unit is they can prove that they are the defense we saw against LSU Vandia Missouri. But that is not where I want to focus. The Ole Miss team total is 25 and a half. The lowest total of the seasons so far for the Rebs was 28 against Florida. On a day where everything went wrong. Florida had 27 on Texas with the backup quarterback and even Oklahoma found a way to stop this, or to top this total. Obviously, Texas wants to keep this a low scoring game, but I don't see them keeping Chambles and Ole Miss to 25. Give me the Ole Miss team total over 25 and a half. Lock emoji, tooth emoji. - Ooh, hat hods with the dentist. It's okay. But who knows? Maybe there's a way we can thread that needle. What about other thoughts? So if there's no other lock, Tom, obviously taking the Rebels to be able to go and get the job done. Again, as I mentioned, it's definitely my lean there. DK, what do you think? - I like Tom's play. I just don't have the balls to play it. I just like, it feels weird. Like you said, Vegas is begging you to take Ole Miss, the dentist did. I kind of agree with that. Like, what if KJ Lacey comes in and they do what Tommy Carr did when they made a change? What if Arch figures it out? Like, he's been hot, he's been streaky. But I do think Ole Miss is the team. There may be something later, too. - But if anything, I'd like Texas three, but it's not really locked worthy. - Is that value, or do you see the path where Texas is able to, do you see Texas winning, covering, and us feeling better about Texas? - I just, I still think Texas has really good players. They have had two extremely unlucky games. If you look at like the component box score, and like, they still played a really good game against Ohio State, which I think with Saiyan is my number one team in the country, you know? So I think Texas is still really good despite some of the offensive struggles. - I didn't know we're an anti-Arts pod. - All right, interesting. - Danny, like just, you know, showing him with the Mrs. on film, it makes sense. - Right. - Anytime you're honest about a team in a bad way, you're anti that team. You're just, you're not just recycling. - That's true. - You're just hating. - Yeah. - A bunch of soft ass people out there these days who can't take criticism. - They love us in July. - They do. - Yeah. - So their teams start losing. - All right, from 7.30 p.m. Eastern time in Austin to 10.15 p.m. Eastern time out in Salt Lake City, massive game in the Big 12, Houston out to take on the Yutse. Who's got a luck? - I do. I gotta find what the actual update is here. - Six and a half. - No, we're gonna bet Houston team total. - I do think Utah's offense has some jives to it. I think that's a hard thing to prep for and stop. Are we out here? Yeah, Houston team total over 24 and a half. I think they're gonna score in the 30s. - And I do too, but I'll just take the full game over. I like the way you attack that, but I'm gonna go with the full game over 56. I mean, 56 and a half. - There's 56 out there, looks like. - Yeah, I just, you, you know, but I'll do a little, you know, point to the pass or out there, but just the quality of the offenses that the Utah defense has faced for the last two weeks and the results suggest that an offense that I think is absolutely humming right now, both in terms of, you know, Connor Wegman and also the pass catchers, a deep sort of rotational running back room. - I agree with you. I think Houston could score, but I also got a little bit of respect for what this offense might be able to accomplish as well. I think it's gonna be a fun game. I think it's gonna be a good back and forth. Who knows, maybe we go to overtime too. So that would also help in an over scenario. So I'll go over 56 and a half. - Fight. - Yeah, with me. - I can't read, no, yeah, it's with you. - Okay. - I guess next we'll take a fight, fight, fight, fight. - I'm on the under 56 and a half. Utah's offense was great to start the season. They're doing that whole two quarterback thing and I feel like the last few weeks as teams have seen more tape on what they've been doing. Utah's offense has not really been as impressive as it has been and as we've gone over, their schedule so far this season is one of the lightest in the country. In fact, it is, according to FPI, everybody's favorite metric. It ranks a hundred and first, which is the lowest in the big 12 by a lot. Houston is easily the best team that the youths will have faced so far this year. And on the flip side, Houston's played a more difficult slate overall. But what happened when they went on the road against Texas Tech and faced a pretty good defense? Offense didn't look very good. And now they're on the road, again, in a very difficult environment, no matter what Chip Patterson wants you to believe against this Utah defense. I don't think it's great, but I don't think it's awful. I don't think either one of these teams is gonna have a great time on Saturday night. Give me the under. DK, anything? I don't have a play in this one. I would lean towards Tom. - Right. - In our picks with Leejay, we pick them all. I took Utah first half. Leejay took first quarter, Utah. I like, so I do think Utah's home field, like it's gonna be crazy, loud, awesome environment. But I don't really trust anything in the game overall. - So we've infected Leejay too. - He's not telling me. - Yeah, a big time. - He stared down a rundown of 26 picks that he was making in an hour and a half. And he's like, I only feel confident in the first team. - By the way, I'm sorry. - He's on a heater like I was last year. He's 21 games over 500. - Let's go. - He's smoking me. - Is he doing a lot of exotics too? - I probably have like, you know, three or four out of the, you know, three or four a week. - Which is again, from my experience from that show, kind of where you have to go when you're like, I don't know, I mean, you just gotta have something here. Okay, let's keep it rocking and rolling. Indiana, no time to worry about what went wrong or, you know, whose fault it was, this, that or the other, they gotta turn their attention. Because we got a Michigan offense that appears to have turned over the reins to Tommy Carr, Michigan playing at home. Hoosier's gotta go in there ready for business. Who's got a lock? - I do. - I'm gonna give me Indiana minus seven. I just, I, like they, they were again, they were a couple missed field goals in a left pinky toe away from beating Ohio State last week. I don't think that their performance overall is as concerning as some have wanted to make it. I know Josh Hoover wasn't great, but I don't think Michigan is Ohio State either when it comes to defense. As we kind of talked about in the big game breakdown, Michigan's defense has looked good. Look at the teams they faced. They haven't faced an offense that has a quarterback like Hoover, and they certainly haven't faced an offense that has two NFL receivers in Brandon Marsh and Charlie Becker. So how is that secondary gonna look at these guys when they couldn't stop Reese Frick and Van der Zee from getting open for a game winning touchdown a few weeks ago? So yeah, and then finally, I don't know if you guys saw, like the injury report barrage that comes out every Wednesday night. Yeah, how many players Indiana had listed? Not a damn one. You know how many players Michigan had listed? Like 45 dudes on there, including like four offensive linemen who are questionable or out. Yeah, give me the Hoosiers minus seven. They're mad. They're gonna take it out on the Wolverines. So we think that. (crowd cheering) I'm sorry, go ahead. Didn't know you were jumping in there. So we think Hoover's shoulders fine? Yeah. Like he was kind of wincing when he was throwing. All right. I think, and I think Josh is one of those guys that kind of shows it. Okay, you know what I'm saying? Yeah. I'll pick it up. When I'm struggling, it's like oh, man, I missed that throw. Oh. Um, I, guys, they were playing patty cake with Penn State. It is a different weight class here. You know, I just thought I'd keep coming back to Hoosiers. Lay the points. Don't look back. What are we taking seven, seven and a half? Probably seven. Seven. Yeah, I think this is gonna be a tremendous response. I had my head down riding for a lot of last night. I did not get a chance to see the disparity. I knew that Michigan was dealing with some injuries, but it is very funny to look at the graphic where it's like Indiana, nothing Michigan. (burping) But even still, I just, I think that Indiana is a different caliber than Michigan in the Big 10. I expect that they will have a great game plan to limit Tommy Carr and make life very, very difficult. I'm gonna take Indiana. I'm gonna lay the points, and I'm not gonna look back. I have a, I have a play in this game as well. All right. There's nothing like going head to head with one of you, but it's even better to fight two of you at once. Oh wow. Give me Michigan and the touchdown. Fight, fight, fight, fight. So we, we keep focusing on the Ohio State game and how, you know, it was one toe out of bounds and they win that one. When we quickly forget about what happened in Lincoln, Nebraska, when they were down 17 to six, going into the fourth quarter of that game, I mentioned this the other day. They have not been able to run the football the last two games. I don't know if that gets corrected against Michigan's defense. I also, somebody said, man, that's no respect for Bryant Haynes, who's gonna have a field day going against Tommy Carr and his first start for the whole program. Don't pull this Maryland stuff out on me. No, I don't know, give me a little two for one special. Give me the under as well in the game. I think both teams could struggle to move the football. The other thing too about winning him in this injury report, do we know his track record of he does not love like just being, oh, like he, I think he might just put everybody on there, the old school of Bella check. You want injury porch? Sure, I'll throw everybody on there. He never, he hasn't even told us who's starting a quarterback next. He's still playing those games. So I think they'll be fine. That's right. Who is he talking about me or you who won the number one college football expert. But I kind of think this is a tough spot. I mentioned this in our big game breakdown. I think it's a tough spot for Indiana. I think that parody is here. Let's go. All right. Like Grimoud Danny on the under 42. That's how we were about to have a no bar fight. I look over. I just think is like solid good at not turning it over, but not turning it over. Doesn't always lead to points, you know, and he has not really looked anywhere close to Mendoza as the competition has stepped up. You know, he doesn't see stuff all the time. Sometimes it's just not on target as much. So I and I also don't think signety thinks that they need to throw it a million times to win this game, right? That's true. Yeah. Like like you got you got a half a film on car now. They really ran the same offense with car that they were running with underwood. It's not like they opened up the playbook. He just ran it a little more efficiently and pinched each defense. You know, tapped out a little bit. Look like so 42. I know it's kind of an NFL type total, but I'll go ahead and go under. I mean, it's an NFL type game, you know, right? It'll be it'll be a play like that. It'll play like that with, you know, 21 to seven. But the Hoosier's been. All right, let's let's turn our attention over to the planes where Lane Kiffin and LSU come to take on a Tigers team. Fresh off the road win in Athens, LSU Auburn. Who's got a lock? I do. Okay, go under 51 and a half. Just I don't have a ton of faith in the LSU offense. I think Auburn's defense has played well. I also think LSU's defense, like it's it's playing well in my opinion from when I'm watching it. They've had problems, but I think a lot of their problems have stemmed from Sam Levitt giving the ball away at weird times. So I know that Auburn's coming off of a huge win and I do worry possibly about a let down here, but at least they're at home. Like if they were on the road, I would be far more concerned, but they're at home. So I think that maybe you know, they'll have the juice from the crowd. So give me the under 51 to half. I've got the first half under 26 and a half eighth game in eight weeks for LSU. I just this, this to me seems like the kind of game where there might not be a lot of urgency. You know, there might be a more patient approach. You all see Lane Kiffen being asked about going forward on fourth down and talking about how good the defense is and how he's calling things differently because he's got a different team than what he had at Ole Miss. He can rely on that defense to go out there and get it done. And I think that that's the mentality here because what is the one way Auburn wins this game? Sam Levitt turnovers, you know, just like something that's going to get the crowd into it, that's going to set up Byron Brown with short fields. They can very, very much try to pin that Auburn offense back into its own in zone and let LSU's defense get out there. And I think that that tone is set early. So I'm going first half under 26 and a half. That's interesting. Okay, I'm waiting on this game to see if Auburn gets bet some. I'd like to take LSU to flat seven. I'd like to take under 21 and a half if the juice wasn't minus one 30. So just something I'm watching for. But like it's out of range to give out on the show. That would be Auburn team total minus 21 and a half would be the one. So LSU defense is clearly the big angle there for your handicap. I think so. And look, I mean, they ran Byron 26 times last week. Like, and they also did some interesting stuff. Formationally, they they widen the line splits a little bit. They went a little bit less heavy stuff. I don't know if they emptied the clip, certainly. But like I do think Lane knows a lot of elements of this offense, right? Like he basically brought it over to FAU kind of ran it in a pure form one year and then like made some adaptations to it. So I do like his ability to coach up Baker here as far as we've seen this before. Right. Like this, this is some stuff that we know they probably would like to do, but they don't do well. So I think if I'm playing this, it's, you know, LSU flat seven and an Auburn team total under drums going to wait right now. Chip, you asked if I had heard Lane talk about the two point conversion stuff. I did not hear that. But what I did here was it was going for it on 4,000, yeah, what I did here was Lane continuing to complain about the nine game schedule. Or even if he shrunk the SEC conference late, the four games, he'd still be two and two. I, I have a plan in this game. Let's go. And this, this is going against the recent trend, which is, you know, home dogs, as he's like, you take him, I think LSU has two things in its favor. One, you just saw Auburn beat Georgia. Like, so there's no chance you're going to overlook Auburn. Like that's been the let down game for Lane. Is that like his team plays down some of the competition? Um, so I think that's it. I think, you know, Auburn might be feeling him. So it's going to be a great atmosphere. I also, you mentioned the stretch of games that they've got. They do have a by week after this one. And I'm going to take a page that I think Lane is probably taking a page out of this book from every coach that I hear. You dangle out the incentive of, hey, you guys go out there and take care of business. I'll give you an extra day or two off in the by week. Nobody responds more to off days than. And then I felt it was paid players. And so now it's the same thing in college. Yeah. I'll take LSU all lay the seven. I also trade as his back for the LSU. I think that's big. He was off the end of report, not listed at all. So I think that gives him another offensive weapon. A little bit worried about the Sam Levitt wild card of turnovers. But I do think he's playing better in the system. I think he's getting more comfortable. So I'll go ahead and lay him with LSU. I didn't just also has LSU first half minus four and a half. I want to ask you both the question then. Do you know what the date November 16th, 2024 was? It was a Saturday. Yeah, I just guess that I don't know that form of a thing. Was it the day Brian Kelly got fired? It could have been like the day he was going to get fired. No, that was that was in that was October 30th, 2025, because that was last year. What it was was the last time LSU won a road game in the SEC. If you want to lay a touchdown with them on the road, I'm not going to stop you. All right. That was a that was like we had to all burn against the spread after and against the spread when like Alex goal is just responsible for some of that. But Hugh Freeze also delivered a lot of that trend, right? It is dicey. That's why it is a little dicey. Like it's kind of going against some stuff here. And I try. I thought LSU would do it against Kentucky. I laid the points with that game. So so did I and we both know you're not saying the same mistake twice. No, I touched that stove and said, no, you know, I it's I know there's all kinds of, you know, drama around hot 97 right now. It's I know that you guys are very much styled into this. But you know, the real beats come from the producers. And I've heard the producers might have something for us in Tuscaloosa. It's time for the producer pick. Another day another strike or how we doing another day, another dollar for the producer pick last week hitting the under with Danny. However, my Georgia Bulldogs did not impress. I've had to swallow my pride enough in the office this week. So I'm going to save the Alabama glazing at home. The numbers unranked teams for striker. And I'm just going to attack the worst quarterback in the SEC. Maybe the worst quarterback in all of college football, Marcel Reed. He is basically DFL in every passing category this year. I don't see number 10 putting up more than 10 points in Bryant. Danny, where I think it's homecoming. I mean, how disrespectful is it that Texas A&M is now a school that you just get your home coming for because of how bad they are. Striker, take his home. So with the homecoming, we also have some home trends. First one Taff mentioned their last 89 games against unranked opponents at home. 89 and 0 scoring almost 44 game and only allowing 9. Their last loss was 2007 against ULM and go and even deeper when they're a double digit favorite at home. Their last 11, their 10 and 1 against the spread winning by more than 32 points in the game. So it'll be all roll tide and Tuscaloosa. My family will be happy there and producers will get another win on the board. Anybody, you're not, you're not going to have a lot of pushback, a lot of pushback from me on that one. The, the schedule of Texas A&M for homecoming is a great shout. Like just incredibly disrespectful. But it's basically Johnny Manzell in 2012 and that's almost it. At least I know for the SEC era. like they haven't had a win in Tuscaloosa. It's been a lot of lot of lopsided results. Anybody else got an Alabama Texas A&M play? Anybody fighting their producers? - I'm close to fighting it with with Aggies 14. - Do it. - All right, give me Aggies 14 fight. - Fight, fight, fight, fight, fight. - I still think that defense is good, right? And like, Bama looks banged up, you know? You guys know my thoughts on Marcel Reed, so this is really just a bet on the defense, but you know, they had the Citadel game, they've had two weeks to prep for this. You know, Bama has had, like, you know, I didn't want to hear how Georgia has had a bunch of tough games in a row 'cause Oklahoma sucks, right? And they played nobody before that one. But like, Bama legitimately has had a couple tough games in a row here. You got Georgia, row game Tennessee, you know, A&M comes off, not off the buy, but like rested off the Citadel game. So this is kind of, maybe not a get right with the win spot, but yeah, yeah, I'm a US currency on Marcel Reed, that is tough. - But by the last time we fought ya, we laid the points with the Cougars. We tried to warn you about Bear Box Meyer and the boys. Look where they are now. Number two team in the country. We'll see what kind of run Alabama pools after laying the wood on Marcel Reed. - Love that. - All right boys, best of luck out there. Love that we've got a lock fight with the producers. Couple more then we'll hit a break and open it up. USC at Wisconsin, anyone got to play. - What is the number? - Three, right? - Can I get two and a half or is that gone? - Pretty sure you can still get two and a half. - Best two and a half out there is-- - And there's one, I found one. - Okay, that's a good enough juice. - All right, I'll lay the two and a half. I'll lay the two and a half with USC. I do think it's key. Like, I don't want to get that key number. But this feels kind of like when they went across the country to Penn State in a whiteout. It's going to be a tough, how do they travel? I think they've started to answer some of their questions. The defense is getting a little bit better and it's not exactly like Wisconsin's offense as a juggernaut. Speaking of QBs, Jade Mayava quietly under the radar just keeps delivering consistently. I'll take USC, I'll lay the two and a half. - Might get Mark Bowman back. - Couple of other players that have been on the injury report. The off week might have been well timed for the Trojans in terms of trying to get a little bit healthier on that standpoint. I was also thinking about this DK. USC's defense opponents need to be taken into consideration. But these last two games, I do think that they've come up with taking advantage of other quarterbacks mistakes and boy, Colton Joseph is a whoopsy daisy waiting to happen. So that kind of mentality could be something they could end up helping the Trojans here. No lock from me, but I definitely, I think I can see where you're coming from. Anyone else on USC Wisconsin? - Did you see the David Hale tweeted it? Like drops in erasers and QBR from last year to this year? - I didn't get a chance to look at the graphic yet. - Yeah, Marcel Reed has the biggest drop. Second biggest drop, Colton Joseph. Turns out the Big Ten's a little more difficult. - Should Luke Finkel have stuck with the punter as his quarterback? - I don't know. USC's off of buy too. - Yeah. - So, and then one, and then (mimicking) you can have your eyes on the Rose Bowl, where it'll be Brad Nestler, Charles Davis, Jenny Dell, bringing you the sights, the scenes, the sounds from undefeated UCLA. As they welcome in, Pat Fitzgerald and the Michigan State Spartans, UCLA passed its first test since losing Nico Iamaliava, Tideafinbach-sten. They do end up beating Wisconsin 17 to seven last week. We saw Michigan State, Tom, we saw them go deep into their bag against Northwestern. You could tell how badly they wanted that one. It was that the kitchen sink game, was that the Super Bowl? Does anybody have a lock for our game, which you can find on CBS Paramount Plus? - I do. - All right, let's do it. - Under 44. - We're watching 60 minutes, boys, and those first half here, full game under 60 minutes. - It's a miniature flight bet, right? Like, Charles, Jenny, we're not going along on this one, right, like the neat, tidy, let's get in, let's get the ratings, let's call a great game, and then let's make our flight. So, look, Fitz has, what, six quarters now, on this UCLA back up, Michigan State's offense, I still think is pretty bad. And I just, I don't see this game being played in the 40s. I think it'll be played, you know, in the 30s. Just ugly UCLA goes out there and gets a win. So, under 44 for me. - Let the children sing. - Woo! - Let's go, Janet. - I was going back and looking at a couple of these 330 diddies that we've had with Jenny Charles and Brad on the call. The unders have been pretty consistently delivering, going all the way back to the Michigan Iowa game, which was 39, and it was a push, but it could have been like, if I would have got a better number, would have been there. The Ohio State Iowa game was 45 and a half hit the under there. I think there's a little trend developing, but for all the reasons that Bud said, I just UCLA's offense. I think they're still trying to figure out what to do with Tai Defenbach. They're run heavy as it is. I think their defense is playing really good. I don't think Michigan State's gonna be able to score many points. Well, I like the under two. - Under the 40s for your shorties. (laughing) - I mean, it's just, it's so warming to me, to just see and hear that the unders keep cashing on America's most watched network, the network of stars. I mean, just special, special stuff. Thank you for bringing that to our attention. Well, this is, anybody else got a Michigan State UCLA lock? Okay, well, then one last time, and we want to remind you that if you want to watch Michigan State and top 10 UCLA, yes, it is the featured game on big time. You can watch it on CBS America's most watched network, the network of stars. You can stream it on Paramount Plus. Well, coming up on the other side, we open up the full board. Everything goes for Saturday, the rest of our week eight locks and more. - Next. - Back here on the cover three podcasts, let's review the action we've got on the board so far for week eight, but has Memphis minus 10, Houston team total over 24 and a half, Indiana, Michigan under 42, Texas A&M plus 14, Michigan State UCLA under 44. I've got, Tulsa minus one and a half, Indiana minus seven, Houston, Utah over 56, Ole Miss, Texas under 54 and a half, and the LSU Auburn first half under 26 and a half. Dan E's got app state plus 12 and a half, Michigan plus seven and a half, Indiana, Michigan under 42, LSU minus seven, the Michigan State UCLA under 44, and USC minus two and a half, and Tom's locked in on Ole Miss plus three and a half, Indiana minus seven, Houston, Utah under 56 and a half, and LSU under 51 and a half. All right, so last week it was on the units, I'll say honors to DK, where would you like to go? Your three star comes through, so you've got the T-Box. - Let's go to, I already have one USC on the board. - Oh, it'll be another USC on the board. The Gamecocks hosting Tennessee come into town. Tennessee, one of the hottest teams in the country, they just dominated Alabama, that defense is flying around, Xavier Gillam, just incredible, what he's able to do on the defensive side of the ball, but Gamecocks coming off a massive win. Oh yeah, I'm laying the two and a half with USC, I'm laying the points, coming off a by-week, they are fresh, Tennessee, they did have the close game against Arkansas before, they've had a little bit of a brutal stretch, now they gotta go on the road, Williams-Brice, one of the toughest places to play, and don't look now, the Norse sellers is getting more comfortable. His legs, I think, could be the difference in this game because I do think they're gonna be able to create some pressure, but we know about his mobility, I think he takes care of the football, I think Shane Beamer gets a big win for the Gamecocks, I'll lay two and a half. - That's a, that's a liquidity play, two boys. (crowd cheers) - So you don't reason me taking it. - Yeah, that's right. If you want Tennessee, you can get about 35,000 right now. If you want South Carolina at that number, you can get about 12,000. - Well, I'm betting 50,000 on this. - Let's go, Orlando Gamecocks. Danny touched on some of it. I do think there's very real possibility for like a letdown. I talked about it earlier with Auburn, where I said at least they're back at home this week. Tennessee got that huge win last week. Now they're going on the road to a very difficult place to play, and as good as that defense has been and defense does travel, I still have some serious kind of concerns about the offensive situation there at quarterback, where McIntyre is still the starter, but it's not like he's been lighting it up in place of phase on Brandon. And then on the other side, Danny, you mentioned Lennoris has played better. I brought up that QBR chart. You know who the third biggest jumping QBR is this season? Lennoris sellers. Now some of that is because his number was so low last year that he had a lot of room to approve, but still he has been much better this season than he was last year. and then just one other little fact here. Again, it's not why I'm doing it, but. Not a large sample, but so far this season home teams coming off of a buy Playing a team that played last week our 11 and six against this bread and I like them here I like it to improve to 12 to six in this game at least so give me the game Cox minus two and a half Mean the last three weeks or so. We've just seen about one game every single night on Saturday night Like yeah, they came off the buy looked fresher looked like the fresher team So that's the advantage here. Yes, I do wonder now in this you know like the like when Lane's complaining about the nine game conference schedule I do wonder if buys could be more valuable when you're in the middle of this grind during the season than the and maybe they were in the past It's a good point. Do you think that we're gonna get two buys as never mind? That's another But like we'll as an institution because sometimes it happens just because of the calendar I think they're gonna start the season earlier and everybody's gonna get two buys Which would be great. That's good. I would agree with that Okay, let's uh, can I interest you? In California golden bears football no, no, you cannot So Remarkable Positivity out of Tosh Loupoy on Monday given what happened on Saturday night I mean just it sometimes all you can do is put on a brave face and and bravery was was certainly on that man's face As he took accountability for a wofel performance. They did not handle success well They beat Virginia Tech and they did did not show up did not coach good enough did not play good enough But something happened when it was 41 0. Did y'all notice what happened when it was 41 0 Jake he asked came back in. Yeah, Jerry and Kiafei Saga Politelli came back. Oh It's amazing how the things can change even within the context of the game But when I saw this brave face and Tosh Loupoy says, you know We're we're we've I like the response from the team. We're getting back to work We've got and then he said we've got some players who I think are getting a little healthier that's gonna help us Do you know who's not getting healthier the SMU secondary lost their team leader in tackles that strong safety to a season ending injury against Virginia I am I mean this is of course, you know These are the the picks my pick is based on the idea that Cal is going to be able to move the ball and score some Points against SMU which is dealing with some injuries on the back half of the defense and that We're also going to see SMU be able to get out there and score as well. Give me SMU Cal over 55 Let me see if I can find you one So 55 and a half no I found one. Okay Enjoy watching that game Those are my thoughts on your pick. Yeah Well, what happened was the the early so like there's like the final card and then there's like the Monday card early card I was like oh, man SMU gonna lay waste to them and then all the sudden I was like, I don't know you I think Cal might score. That's how you get to the under. There you go. That's a big number 55 or the 19 the 19 so that's what I was saying 19 that's I did not feel comfortable with that whatsoever. All right, but what you got Chip we got a got to have my theme music here, man. Oh, yeah Time for sick home mode. Let's go I'm a little bit lower on some of the teams in the bottom of the Sun belt if things go wrong They could be like you ask you come back. That's kind of like sicko mode of a sicko mode All right, gonna wrap it fire a couple of these here Because nobody really cares about these games, but we do care about winning and so give me Akron plus three and a half Give me rice plus seven and a half going to see FAU if you run defense not amazing Give me no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no back up back back up He said rice. Yeah All right, give me for the first time all year Sac State In the ball sack rivalry. Yes, in the ballstack rivalry. Yeah, ballstack Sacramento State This is the time honored balls ball sack rivalry from from the Mac look the the Cardinals got him But they're not that big 14 and a half on Sac State. I'll take that Give me N.I.U. Plus four and a half I I mean, I know they suck. I have their season win total under but man Hawaii is look dreadful and like I don't I don't They're retiring Jordan Lynch just Jersey this game by the way, so very clearly we're celebrating Jordan The juice yeah, so Nothing says Northern Illinois homecoming like a Hawaii game Hey, give me Arkansas State plus two and a half hosting Georgia State Okay, hangover come down Okay, yeah, I think that's a hard one to get up for and I do the Arkansas State can score Boy, I mean when we started sicko mode. It was for a run like that. Yeah, oh, it's a it's a hazmat suit Saturday is what is what buds taking on best of luck to you and and all of your Saturday endeavors with Akron rice Sacramento State Northern Illinois and Arkansas State on the quad box Let's go. Let's go Well, that's that has gotten beefy quick Tom. Let's where would you like to go? I will quickly touch on one of the games, but mention because I do have some action on it Give me the under 51 and a half in rice FAU And then I will go to the game that we haven't discussed yet But we should have discussed should have been a family discussed in fact They should treat this game like it is like the state of the Union address and put it on every network not just one We're going to the Florida Rosedale Iowa at Minnesota and we are taking Minnesota team total Under 16 and a half Minnesota has really struggled to run the ball this season Iowa has been tremendous stopping the run I believe the Hawkeyes can put Minnesota in a lot of third and long situations which Minnesota like I like Drake Lindsay But this offense has not been great in those spots I do not think they're going to have a ton of success moving the ball and I also think that it is supposed to be pretty windy and Minneapolis on Saturday Which will impact their ability to kick longer field goals to I would love it if it's 17 and a half But you can't really find one out there with the appropriate juice for our competition So I will have to settle for 16 and a half What a lot cited That pig is been very much in let's see was last year But last year Minnesota won it right no two years ago and okay last year So here's us if you are not watching on youtube.com/croft3 and please please please guys They told us that if we hit our next subscriber challenge, they'll send us on the road If you like see the cover 3 podcast on the road make sure you smash that subscribe and because so we can hit our next subscriber goal 7 and 1 straight up 7 and 1 against the spread for the Iowa Hawkeyes in this rivalry against Minnesota So yeah, Kurt's definitely had the best of PJ here in recent years Anybody got a play there? Yeah, I'll lay him with Iowa Yeah, that's your decision, half it's Jeremy had Klinsky era begins He's officially the starter. There's no doubt Tim Leicester. They've been able to find some big plays. Maybe this offense is on to something So I'll go ahead and lay him Love that Okay, Danny, where'd you like to go anything out? Which let me go by the way, can I go and I'm for allowed to do this But my three star lock was the UCLA Michigan State under Because my three star lock I forgot to denote that one declare. Yeah. Yeah, um, let me go. I got one more on the board Get give me UCF getting six and a half at home against BYU You gotta say more Biggest game in history at home that to me has been the trend this year's how to teams handle success Only then would have made it better as if they were ranked number one because we've seen that trend losing to unranked teams But they might as well be number one. I don't know if they lose this game, but I think UCF defense keeps them in this one UCF still having a little bit of quarterback problems seen if they get a healthy there, but that don't think they're getting Um, what's his face back in the lineup, but uh, and Jenkins has still been doing all right with them So I'll uh, I'll take UCF the bounce house is gonna be rocking coming across the country. What could go wrong for BYU in this spot I like it. I might have more in that later Oh Okay, okay, okay Um, I got one more than I'm out, but I'm gonna kind of have you on the card Give me we're gonna make this my three stars. Well, give me Iowa State plus 11 Go into the desert and face in Arizona Like Arizona's been running hot. I do like Iowa State's past rush. I think they can make this thing ugly Like they they kind of showed well enough went went when they went west already like I Just think that's too many points. Give me the cyclone's plus 11 And for all y'all out there don't go nuts on this 'cause I had another one who's gonna be a three star and it literally got bit hard during the show, like out of range. So I don't know if this is actually, like normal three star caliber, but yeah. - Do I just make it as 10 star? (laughing) - It's like Tom and Chip have some catching up to do on these picks. - Yeah. - I've got, yeah, I guess I got, you've got two more than me, all right buddy? - Hey, whoo, hit him with a buddy. - I'm right there, chief, champ, pal. - Man, I got paled the other day and I was mad for 30 stars. - I would be mad as hell, dude. I might point you in the face. Dude, the worst part is getting butted when your name is butted. (laughing) I'm like, bro, do I know you or are you just friendly? You know? So it's, it's, you know? - I'll take the, I will retroactively, I haven't declared it, but the show's not over, so I think it's okay. I will retroactively take my pops with the stick. So I'll have that as my three star. I'll go with Tulsa as my three star lock to go ahead and designate that one 'cause I am definitely not throwing three stars on any of my remaining picks because the next one is the Clemson Tigers. - I don't. - Two and a half, I know, Tom, I know. I won exactly one unit, not a penny more on this one. But this Virginia Tech defense just quits. They check out, you know, they plan a meeting for 445 that's out of the office to go meet with a client. And the Virginia Tech defense just leaves. They have just allowed teams to climb back into games or to pull away with games. I mean, the fact that they cannot hold this down leads me to believe that even if the offense is struggling out of the gate for Clemson, coming out of an off week by the way, that eventually they might be able to wear down and just to hit an explosive run with Gideon Davison or a coverage bus that ends up getting the one shot that you need down the field with Brian Westgo. If Virginia Tech, I just don't think has shown to be trustworthy in this spot. This is still Death Valley at night. I will take the Tigers minus the two and a half. - Chip, can I ask you a question? - Sure. - Do you have the cover three group chat muted? (laughing) - Because of the-- - Can you see the chart? - Did you not see the chart? (laughing) - I have a lot of group chat muted. - I mean-- - I posted the passing chart of Tate Reynolds against Charleston Southern last week, Chip. - Right. - And no completions, there it is, thank you, Striker. Look at that, somebody doesn't have the group chat muted. What part of that says, man, I'm worried about this Virginia Tech defense against Tate Reynolds and the Clemson Tigers. - Hey, but that one just off the right hash, man. That is close to getting over-- (laughing) - Seven yards, five, yeah, five, six, seven yards, yeah. - That's like five and every around up to six. - For those watching that thick blue line there, that's between the tens, that's the line of scrimmage. That's where his throws were. Anything that went past five yards was incomplete. Against Charleston Southern. - Okay, Chip, I mean, you are really, you are a ziggin' when everybody else is ziggin'. I'll give you credit. - Two and a half, listen, they can win this game 3-0 and I cover. - It's true. - Hey, do you know who I put as the kicker on my all-america ballot? Nolan Hozer, Hozer? You know, that boy is two for two from more than 50 yards, all right? So if you don't believe what scoring range can be when you've got Nolan Hozer in there, let's go. - Maybe I should put Nolan Hozer at quarterback. (laughing) - All right, Tom, what you got? - I mean, we're all throwing our three stars out there. I'll get mine out there. Give me Mississippi State team total under 20 and a half. - Again. - Yeah, just, it came home pretty easy last week and I, Camario, I'm not expecting him to play again this week and they are facing Oklahoma. So, you know, it doesn't really seem like something I need to worry too much about. Maybe, maybe John Matier kills me, but even if he does, I don't know if I trust that offense based on what I saw last week, to score 21 points. - No. - Seven, three, Oklahoma, great call grant. And he would know, he's been living with it all the way through. We got a quarterback change and I'll rock with Mikey Keane, give me Arizona State plus the two and a half. Cutter Bully got benched, Mikey Keane comes in. I believe our own Zenitz is reporting it. There's a Kansas State team, by the way, who aren't, if you're not paying attention to this, Kansas State team come into play Arizona State. Arizona State clearly has had to go through a lot of soul searching. This does feel like a cool chick Saturday for the sun devils, backs against the walls, circle the wagons, it gets hot and tempi. So, if there's anything left in them being able to utilize Reed Harris, the rest of these skill players, they're able to tighten things up on defense. What was it with the four hour meeting that they had? Everything that went wrong and what can we actually fix so far this week? I mean, it ain't, it ain't a player's only meeting, right? What Mike Tomlin say, player's only meeting means you're, you're cooked right away. It's not a player's only meeting, but it's certainly a staff soul searching week. So, I'm gonna say it pays off with the victory, but I'll take the two and a half points. - I am also on this game. I am on the under 56 and a half. I don't have a ton of faith in the Arizona State Offense right now, it's never really a good sign when you're going to the backup quarterback. And also, Avery Johnson, little banged up. Remember last week I talked about when he broke free for that long run and like tripped on the turf and like landed and was down funny? Apparently he kind of really heard himself doing that. So, he's questionable for this week. And if he doesn't go with that offensive line, they might be in a whole hell of a lot of trouble. Even if he does, I still like the 56 and a half. - All right, I think I'm good till sprinkles. - I've got two more. - All right, let it rip. - Danny, do you have any more? Or if I caught you and am I going to finish with, oh, so I'm going to finish with two more than you, Mr. Needs to catch up over here. I will start with just one, like this is, San Diego State Colorado State over 63 and a half. - Oh, Colorado State. - It's just the Colorado State play, like. - But also like unstoppable force and movable objects, right? - Yeah, and like San Diego State's defense is not exactly good itself so far this season. And you know, firing the defensive coordinator mid game has not fixed the Colorado State defense. So I don't love the 63 and a hook part of it, but I just, this is principle for me at this point. And then finally, we're going to Champagne. - Oh, baby. - Where Dante Moore is once again out. Evan Stewart is out. They've handled that internally. And it's pretty clearly how they've handled it. - Katen Houser doesn't have a hand. Oh, Luke Skywalker out there. - Yeah, we don't know if it's Brock Thomas or Dylan Raiola. Dylan Raiola came in, let that game winning drive. Tate Reynolds at a time. Just little, don't, don't, don't, don't, one big time throw at the end. Illinois does not have Katen Houser. As you mentioned, broken wrist, broken hand. They are starting a true freshman at quarterback. The one thing that I really look for in this game, though, is Illinois is coming off of a buy. And defensively, this is a team that really needed a buy because if you'll remember, they fired their defensive coordinator mid season and they've been kind of trying to fix the scheme. And it has looked better the last few weeks. Now they had the extra time to really kind of dig in and get some stuff sorted out. So while I don't think it's going to be good, I don't think they can really change the personnel, which is the biggest problem that they have. I do think you will see a sharper operation on that side of the ball. So two teams with their backup, quarterbacks, Oregon's defense has looked better. I expect Illinois's defense will look better. Give me the under 51. - Oh my gosh, can I, is there room on that ride? - Yeah, come on in. - Oh, yeah, yeah, no, that's. - How many? - Oh, it's long green. (cheering) - Oregon unders in general just have been, you know, pretty strong, pretty solid. It is very clear that their ability to overwhelm and overpower opponents is just not happening. So very specific ways to win. I like that a lot. 51, good number two. All right, anybody else, anything? - I had to get my ninth out there. Glad that opportunity opened. All right. - Oh, Bud, you got baseball best bet for Friday? - I mean, how do you not go Rasmussen? - Okay, would you go like strikeouts over, innings, outs recorded, or just lay, just raise. - I bro, like, I mean, this is one, like, it's not with the head, it's with the heart. It's raised for sure. - Yeah, Friday night, first pitch, is game two on Saturday? - Yeah. - Is game, yeah. - Ooh. - I know. - Ooh. - I know. (laughing) - Maybe a lot of this angle, boys. (laughing) - Although, like, probably lower scoring games in the series. So I think by the time you go live. - Yeah, we're really gonna get a four-hour raise game. - Ooh, well, I don't wanna jinx it. - Well, I mean, I don't know if we change pitchers five times, then yeah, we can all of a sudden get this thing to drift a little bit lower. But yeah, we'll be a lot of, we'll be watching along. - 38 second home run trots from Garenaro. And we're in Milwaukee. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I heard Matt Snyder ex. I mean, Stellar, Stellar's baseball writer for CBS Sports. He very inside media inside baseball. Do you know what he's excited about? Two domes. Yeah. So his fingers, his fingers aren't freezing doing a live vlog for the world series in an open air press box. Is Milwaukee retractable? Yes. Okay. So they should be good there. All right. Let's review what we've got on the board so far. But locked in on Memphis minus 10 Houston team total over 24 and a half. Indiana, Michigan under 42 Texas A&M plus 14 Michigan state UCLA under 44 Akron plus three and a half rice plus seven and a half Sacramento state plus 14 and a half Northern Illinois plus four and a half Arkansas state plus two and a half and Iowa state plus 11. She oops. Got total minus one and a half Indiana minus seven Houston, Utah over 56 Ole Miss Texas under 54 and a half LSU Auburn first half under 26 and a half Cal SMU over 55 Clemson minus two and a half Arizona state plus two and a half and the Oregon Illinois under 51 Danny's got app state plus 12 and a half Michigan plus seven and a half Indiana, Michigan under 42 LSU minus seven the Michigan state UCLA under 44 South Carolina minus two and a half USC minus two and a half Iowa minus six and a half UCF plus six and a half and Tom's got Ole Miss plus three and a half Indiana minus seven Houston Utah under 56 and a half LSU Auburn under 51 and a half Rice FAU under 51 and a half South Carolina minus two and a half Minnesota team total under 16 and a half Mississippi state team total under 20 and a half Oregon Illinois under 51 the San Diego state Colorado state over 63 and a half the Kansas state Arizona state under 56 and a half and now it's time for some money lawn sprinkles all right let's take a look at our sprinkles results from last week uh bud Arizona state Kansas UTIP Akron couldn't bring anything home chip chip got a North Carolina but couldn't get Oak State Penn State or or Elon guys was the what was it down 17 oh early it was just tough you know stuff went out of crashed they did cover yeah it's tough for the Phoenix to rise from the ashes there Danny Penn State Michigan state Cal and then Tom Wisconsin Kansas Arizona state Missouri oh man well that's let's get some some winners out here okay it's insane that in the week where everybody was upset we got one damn money line sprinkle out of like 50 shots well the upsets fair truly special performance we should have been there hey um let's see what let's talk about some truly special performances uh did y'all see the drone show with the Baylor game you know like Baylor spent a lot of money on a drone show for that TCU rivalry game gonna spend a lot of money on that Davor and a buyout to give me Kansas plus 125 yeah I think I saw it at plus 130 can you get it any better oh I'm sure I mean obviously I would like that and got I'm I'm just staying all big 12 here give me Arizona state plus 140 you know just getting it done on the field and then give me Houston plus 205 they go into Salt Lake City and come out with an out right victory let me see if I can find you better numbers on two tan on Houston uh Kansas best I got 125 Arizona state 125 as well all right scheduled scheduled Baylor for a homecoming so it tells you what they know uh all right Danny which is sprinklin uh you I already had the Kansas one research I'm gonna take Kansas as well uh give me old miss to win the game outright plus 147 yeah around there and uh sometimes with these you just have to stay pocket give me give me Mississippi state and Billy Puckett Parker Billy Puckett to get it done against the Sooners where it seems to be imploding a little bit I'm done trying to say trust John Matier not turn the ball over and maybe it's seven to three Mississippi statesway because of a pick six Puckett hashtag Puckett do you know what that young man says when he sees even the slightest amount of green grass ahead of him Puckett Puckett all right bud what are we sprinklin all right we're gonna go you're Wyoming plus 181 I think like you know they got a shot against Air Force to Lane plus 130 you know UTSA not sure they're all that good to be you know the like I make that a quaint flip are we gonna go Sac State yeah no you're all you are already in deep all right Sac State plus five 25 let's do it let's go that's that's really what I got this week go for it in that Sac State yeah that's it uh hey Tom I have three I mentioned one earlier in the show oh come on you sound so enthusiastic about it no I I'm taking UCF plus 223 like BYU had a huge win last week now you've got to travel across the country it's supposed to be humid it might be rainy it's going to be windy so it could be a very kind of weatherish game UCF coming off of a buy while you were putting everything you had into beating Notre Dame last week pulling out like all the trickeration that you needed all the you know the the misdirection UCF was sitting at home getting ready for you and I don't I'd rather have the money line than the spread because I could see BYU completely blowing the doors off of them too but I feel like if this is close that's gives UCF a real chance to win this game uh I'm gonna take Auburn plus 251 mentioned it earlier LSU has lost eight straight road games they maybe they end that losing streak maybe they don't and then finally you don't want to face Brett Belima coming off a buy let's go Thomas not when you're traveling across the country not with your backup quarter back in and you're not even sure which one you liked the best because neither of them has played well when they started and not when your top receiver is getting arrested and suspended vibes aren't great with the ducks right now you might have beaten Nebraska but losing is what Nebraska does winning is what the align I do give me Illinois plus 305 let's go all right money line sprinkles are on the board buds taking Wyoming two lane and Sacramento State I've got Kansas Arizona State in Houston Danny's on Kansas Ole Miss Mississippi State and Tom is taking UC Auburn Tigers and I L L the Illinois fighting a lie and I all right any other games we didn't mention anything that just didn't hit the didn't quite hit the card anything else before I mean hey you know what nobody goes to the club early we go to the club late late that's right because club can't how we doing better late the number boys sorry for the delay there's a really long line outside the club today you know if you've been drawing on the walls yeah just a little artistry showing my creative side your sketch yeah very cute very cute very fall okay so what do we what are we looking at oh you know I like to go to the games of the week we went to Purdue last week Huskies put a smack down on them that worked out great lock disagreement with Danny I believe that was correct just throwing that one out there we go to we go to Wyoming this week hosting Air Force I think Air Force is going to kill them and cover the spirit a little bit of a fight with butt yeah I think the line is set because of Wyoming's home road splits and they allow less points at home a lot less um but they allow the same yards per carry at home and on the road and that's a lot of them or like over six yards per carry which is going to be the name of the game for a team like Air Force so I think that specifically is at least going to help this team cover and I think Wyoming's home road points allowed splits is what setting this line and I just don't know if that's what you can justify given this like complete gap in a rushing team and rushing yards allowed yards per carry allowed with Wyoming I think why not allowed to Northern Illinois it was something absurd I think they are allowing over six yards the carry even though it wasn't one I think this is your third Wyoming lock of the season yeah and sometimes I fade though and sometimes I just you know yeah I know yeah that's what I'm saying like you you've got Hawaii you we've got this is you've got a Wyoming play a Hawaii play and now an Air Force play I mean this is your toxic relationship of the year I mean what's that record on those chips let's see one and one one and one because they why you did loss of this season no you've got your six and four really yeah damn I thought I was like well better than that You've won two in a row though, so it's been a while since maybe that's why it feels yeah, maybe that's why it feels right You know, it's what if you don't print me lately Absolutely Welcome to our lives I'm getting some slander on the Twitter again of the week this time is about UCLA And a metric that I didn't make up and I don't care for But as my job to predict what a committee of people are going to do and I know that that's what they're using You said 11 and one is out, right? You said 11 and one UCLA, would you know, but I think you have to be 11 and one so the minute you lose a game I just think for any football team it's objectively hard to just like win out So that's why like we have their playoff percent chance if they lose this week I don't think it's going to be this weekend goes to 10% because that means you have to beat USC and Michigan back to back at the end of the year Yeah And 11 and one I mean maybe maybe doesn't get them and I'd be stunned if they weren't in at 11 and one But I'm saying their chance of going 11 and one throughout the season Just doesn't feel great. What do you have their odds of going 9 and 3? Dead Are you CLA? Yeah, great Yeah, but he was asking what are the percent of what are the odds they go 9 and 3? Oh, let me pull that up for you real quick Because I think 10 and 2 they're in Right, I don't think that would get back to back situation I think they're almost better losing this week and then winning because if they lose back to back That's what's going to hurt them. The recent supplies like that's the human factor that comes in The narrative is likely to get back up quarterback Yeah, that's what hurts them I also like they're ironically covering spread so I don't know why their FBI is so low But I think like only putting up 17 on Wisconsin Like averaging 17 your past two with the backup like I guess isn't convincing enough again like this isn't my opinion But I'm just like trying to play by the rule, but instead Well, I mean their FBI is going to be affected by the fact that we're going to have seven turnovers So at P.I. is going to see that obviously like a luck box win Right, and not at the end win Because FBI's like game control efficiency like spreads to be honest We have them as a pick them 55% at Michigan and then 45% versus USC And those are the only two games that are around the 50-50 It's also hard to put like a like a lot like from a modeling standpoint Like what number do you put on first-ever against complaining in the offseason and Notre Dame's complaining all offseason Like I think that matters like big brands who are making the argument we got job last year. I don't think that just did But I don't think that number zero Yeah, but it's hard. How do you quantify that? Yeah, someone was saying the chat ten and two UCLA completely depends on what other teams do That's why I agree like eleven and one to me is you are in the driver's seat Ten and two to me is like you need a generational downfall from the big 12 and SEC Which is totally possible But that's where it's out of your control to me And I'm trying to pay the pictures of like what keeps you in the driver's seat Mm-hmm, yeah Has the model account, oh yeah I have a HQ head at 1230. No one let me forget that Okay Is the model account for the addition of Gus Malzahn to the selection committee? That's a new addition that we must take into consideration We've also got app state athletic director Doug Gillin He's stepping into booze testing you because of the lashley connection Yeah, you know No, whoa, whoa, that's not integrity. He puts his hat at the door He literally takes his hat off and he leaves it at the door I mean the ball knowledge between Mark Danter and you and Gus Malzahn Haven't helped anybody in that room. I mean and if they get if Wesley walls And Mark Daytonio and Gus Malzahn all agree on a team Good luck standing in the way of that Shit that the chat the chat said leave the visor at the door Yeah Let's go All right How many country clubs is that? I can I can't I'll play out I was gonna say how many country clubs in the Dallas area is getting Gus into to Convince him to go on to the committee Oh These are answers beyond me, gentlemen All right, kids, have a good one See you guys See you Does red play golf? No, but he's the head coach he doesn't play golf Yeah, but he's a golfer Yeah I don't want to speak. I know Rhett's a big fan of the Cover 3 podcast So please reach out But I want to say he's one of those I like to play But I'm obsessed with football, you know, like he Enjoys to play he'll take the opportunity But he's not the like Live and breathe and die in with it, you know, whether he plays or not he can get Gus on to some courses That's true He's the head coach at some you What do you think is Guinness or do you think he hides it? Lashley Yeah It's like ten I know you finally learned how to go private with it Bro, does Rhett lashley golf? I'm assuming he does Yeah, five He's a four and a half Yeah, I love it So he's a sandbagger because I swear I've heard him at like a like an ACC media days You know, one of those like July circuits at one point, you know doing the like Yeah, I wish I could play more, you know, but you know, it's just the job keeps me going Now he has not played since July He said he Rhett said ball up top I measured myself against zero into the summer though We we had five of our scorers like five of our countables and that made a July period He was turning it on Let's get a he's not Vettering quarter, veteran quarterback lot less stress on the mind, you know, let's go Rhett He has smart enough to either not play during the season or not in areas scorers during the season Got to be one, I mean, yeah, okay, so let's let's flip it to ultra boost for SMU Because it sounds like Rhett could probably get Gus anywhere And remember the CFP committee meets in Dallas That's what I'm saying If you want to meet Gus Melzon hang out at Royal Oaks Country Club during the week On Tuesday afternoon before their Tuesday night meetings Yeah, that's that's where you'll do it Oh, man, so good. All right, we are going to be back with you 11.30 p.m. Eastern time Saturday night to come and hang out in the tailgate youtube.com/cover3 Reminder the this Saturday portion can also be found on CBS Sports HQ 10 a.m. on Saturday College football pregame to follow at 11 to lead you right up to kick off And you can follow him on Twitter top, you can follow him at Danny Kinneau You can follow him at flood early three follow me at chip underscore Patterson gentleman Thank you very much. Thank you. See you Drive a better deal with worth credit union rates as low as 3.99% 90 days no payment and $200 cash when you move your auto loan to worth credit union Same car better rate from your daily commute to your next weekend getaway Let worth help you get where you want to go worth credit union Refinance your auto loan today apply online or visit a local branch Subject to credit approval membership eligibility required see worth cu.org for details