Week 7 LOCKS ๐ Best Bets, Against The Spread Picks, Moneyline Sprinkles & More! | Cover 3
from Cover 3 College Football
89m 34s
The Cover 3 podcast delivers dynamic, real-time college football betting analysis through a collaborative team of hostsโincluding Tom Fonelli, Danny Kennell, Bud Elliott, and Chip Patterson. Each episode breaks down key matchups, such as Indiana vs. Ohio State, BYU vs. Notre Dame, and Texas vs. Florida, with detailed picks rooted in team performance, injuries, and offensive/defensive trends. The hosts emphasize value over randomness, often identifying under-the-radar dynamics like quarterback health, defensive matchups, or momentum shifts. A recurring "three-star lock" highlights a standout bet, such as Utah's first-half under against Colorado, while the team discusses broader patterns in college footballโlike offensive efficiency and pass rush effectiveness. The show blends expert insight with humor and audience engagement, encouraging listeners to subscribe, comment, and participate in the weekly lock discussions. Promotional partnerships with Home Field, a college football apparel brand, are woven into the content, offering fans exclusive discounts. With a mix of data-driven analysis and entertaining banter, Cover 3 delivers both informative and accessible betting content that resonates with fans passionate about college football.
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And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast here on CBS Sports.
That's Tom Fonelli, that's Danny Kennell, that's Bud Elliott.
I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live, youtube.com/cover3.
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Hey, Kate, hey, the Cover 3 tailgate where they are dropping their own personal locks.
Because they are here.
You want them?
We've got them.
So do me a favor, tailgate, because you all are awesome.
Showing up early, getting the conversation started here on the Thursday.
You get those likes up.
We really appreciate it.
It's your first time here.
Please smash the subscribe.
I mean, I don't know if you folks have noticed Tom, Danny Bud.
But we got some shiny new artwork on the podcast feed.
I'm pretty proud, yeah.
Thank you to everybody who put in the work including us for showing up to photo shoot.
So thank you to us.
I want to thank us.
But also, of course, be sure to go and check that out.
Do not be alarmed as we continue to grow as we continue to get better.
Speak out.
No, I want to know.
Because Danny is the one that brought multiple outfits to the shoot.
How did they decide?
His process of picking which I've been like, how did they decide?
Did they consult with DK on this?
Which outfit looked the best for they just go?
Yeah, I mean, I had a stylist there that had multiple options for me.
I mean, Tom was there right before.
He was right after me.
I had multiple outfits.
I had business and I had casual.
Right.
Tom is mixing business and casual today.
He's got the full button down with the handle.
It's just a flannel.
But yeah.
I will say like, the only problem I have with the artwork is that chip is not taller than I am.
Hmm.
This is fresh.
But it's close.
Hey, we are the tallest podcast because well, it might be the shortest here.
You know, I say, anyway, enough.
How tall is Compton?
What?
How tall is Compton?
Because Taylor DeWon if you average it out, like six, six, seven.
Yeah.
Yeah, but Compton's like a short like best old team's linebacker guy.
He's like five eight five eight five nine at most.
He's not five eight.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Wow.
A tower over those guys collectively enough enough of this nonsense together.
When Will said, I had me the first time I met him.
I had to turn around.
I was like, where's that coming from?
I don't know.
I think the family's not short.
Let's all not tall.
I don't even know if you always like four nine.
He's a typical Italian.
Let's review the week that was.
Okay.
Let's see how week six was four.
You covered three podcast on the locks front.
But Elliott, it was a five and seven week for you.
The wins were Louisville minus three and a half against Florida State.
The NC State team total under 28 and a half.
Georgia Tech plus seven Virginia team total under 30 and a half and ball state plus 37 and a half.
The losses were Oregon minus 11 Arkansas State minus two and a half Indiana minus seven.
Army team total over 24 and a half Illinois minus two and a half tough on the three star lock lock three star lock loss.
Texas A&M plus three and a half and Virginia Tech team total over 31 and a half five and seven week.
What are the big takeaways?
Well, crappy week right gotta do better.
A&M terrible pick right like on numbers.
I would bet Indiana again.
Obviously wouldn't bet Oregon again after watching that.
Probably should have made Louisville my three star lock, you know, honestly,
but Illinois controlled most that game until the end and then they just started to collapse.
So that that was crappy to have the finally get a loss on on the three star locks.
It was trying to do better to everybody.
5 and seven for the week 29 and 27 for the season chip.
It was a six and three week for me UTSA minus six and a half UCLA plus 11 and a half Missouri State Western Kentucky first half under 28 and a half.
Georgia third quarter pick them Indiana fourth quarter minus one and a half ECU minus nine and a half coming through with the three star appreciate your pirates.
Then on the loss front I was state first half plus seven that was out at BYU lock fight loss on Texas minus seven and a half good gravy.
Congratulations DK and then Arizona State minus 20 and a half late night was was tuned in there was was hoping for something that was just never going to come.
But six and three will take it 31 and 26 now for the season.
Danny I mean you just you grabbed all three of those stars you said meet me road runners.
Let's go UTSA minus six and a half also the lock fight win with Oklahoma plus seven and a half coming through with Utah minus 15 and a half and USC plus one and a half losses were the under in Iowa Washington because I will hit that themselves.
Yeah, that was not for seen I did not see the Iowa offensive explosion coming to like Bud said Oregon just the wrong side Alabama.
I probably would take again. Yeah, you know, I don't think that was a horrible play and then LSU wrong side there.
So yeah, thank you to Jeff trailer for going for that two point conversion late to get me that cover that saved the week for me for sure.
Absolutely four and four week 27 and 29 overall for DK Tom. It was a four and seven week for you the wins were the under in Georgia Bama the under in UCLA Oregon coming through.
Let's go and see state team total under three star lock comes home as does Georgia Southern plus seven and a half the losses were the under.
It was that the two point try not great for for Tom the under in that South Florida UTSA game I was eight first half plus seven red river under 39 LSU minus eight Cal team total under 21 and a half San Diego State Oregon State under 53 and a half in West Virginia plus three and a half what we take away.
Pretty upset with Virginia tech for allowing Cal to score 25 points LSU just I don't know if I can bet on them again this year just they should have won that game they probably I don't know if they should have covered but they definitely should have won but they just continue to mess around.
And then that San Diego State Oregon State was fun because it was very much a Danny's Iowa Washington situation were Oregon State covered that total by itself pretty much by half time.
Yeah it's they they get a little sideways times that's why it's it's college football you are still 32 and 31 on the season so everybody we're all locked in we're running four wide let's see who can maybe separate themselves here in our competition in week seven so week six behind us eyes ahead locks on the card gentlemen you're ready to lock it up.
Yes do it. Since 2005 the under games between services is 40 cash nine and one give me an over and this one as well low two for one special.
I was sick our last week y'all were watching the good games I was live betting a hill at a ULM talking my blue plate special five star locks are coming five star master lock lock it.
I'm I'm living to die in every point every cover.
From the locking chair to your eyes and ears we get started as always with our Thursday and Friday locks in a reminder here at the start of the show that our Saturday locks will also be replayed on CBS sports HQ before pregame gets going around 11 a.m.
So I'm 10 a.m. hour coming hang out and you can see the Saturday portion in advance of Saturday's game so this Thursday Friday portion first for for all the weeknight heads Thursday night we're head and down to Birmingham ECU playing at UAB
George Southern and ODU up in Norfolk and a little bit sun belt action and in words that didn't make since 10 years ago we've got a pack 12 showdown in San Marcos.
So Thursday night who's got a lock.
Just go on the mothership CBS sports network there is a game could be high flying now we don't know officially the status of Colorado State quarterback Hals Haney and that's definitely something that's important we know that Texas state plays fast scores a lot.
This is it uncouth unbecoming have you all seen the total for this game yep 70 and a half.
That's too many dad gun points.
But we'll just do the first half on this one in case it gets a little sideways guys a first half total of 36 and a half.
Holy cow I mean I understand that Colorado State and Texas state are going to skew against all of the trends in terms of the numbers of possession per game right.
But just even to consider that if this is going to be a game 12 13 14 possessions like let's say this really goes up and really pushes it that extra little bit.
You really think we're going to get the efficiency to be able to cash in on all of those scoring opportunities right out of the gate that's too many dad gun points first lock is going to be.
Thursday night, Texas State, Colorado State,
first half under 36 and a half on CBS Sports Network.
- I think the number says he ain't playing.
- Right.
- The spread by the way, Texas State, 14.
That is much larger than I guess if you would,
if he was in, you're looking at what, nine and a half 10?
Probably.
- He's a pretty good G6 QB, man.
- Yeah.
That's a guy that he's one of the rare P4 to G6 drop downs
that actually looks like he's hit when he's healthy.
- Also, if you wanna think about the way
this game script could play out,
a total of 70 and a half and a spread of two touchdowns,
definitely tells me a little cat and mouse could be going on,
right?
- I agree.
- Texas State gets out and then it just sort of goes back and forth.
So I'll go with the first half under there.
All right, there's nothing, yes?
- I have no locks tonight,
but I do kinda like UAB plus five and a half.
If anybody else is looking for something else to do.
- Yeah, I was,
- I kinda lean ECU, but not hard, yeah.
- Do you know what, this is terrifying?
I lean under.
I don't think ECU's offense is overly dynamic right now.
I think they're probably a little bit better
on the defensive side of the ball.
And so I just, I wonder how those strengths and weaknesses
end up matching up, but still it's already a low total.
47 and a half is fairly low for some action,
especially on a Thursday night.
On to Friday speaking of action.
We got a little Memphis two lane
to get you started at State Coastal Carolina.
I'm sure every one has gotten a chance
to see the save by the Bell Coastal Carolina jerseys, right?
- Mm-hmm.
- It will be at least worth checking out.
Curious to see if anyone's got a lock.
And then Washington, the Huskies take on Purdue Friday night.
Who's got a lock?
- I've got two.
- Let's go.
- I'll start with that Washington Purdue game.
Give me the under 52.
Demand Williams is likely not playing,
which might actually be an upgrade
for the Washington offense this week,
but I also wonder, you know,
you see a lot of times backups come in
after quarterbacks get hurt or take it out and play well.
And then they don't play nearly as well
when their first start, when teams know they're coming.
But I do think the biggest difference Purdue
has won two straight games,
and their defense has been markedly better
in those two games against Illinois and Minnesota.
And you can say, well, they're Illinois and Minnesota,
but look at Illinois's offense
in every other game it has played this season.
They did better against Ohio State
than they did against Purdue two weeks ago.
So I like the Purdue Washington under 52.
And then I go to another game there.
Give me the two lane team total under 24 and a half.
Just not a big fan of that two lane offense.
And also weather could be playing a role here too.
Like it's supposed to be pretty blustery
in New Orleans Friday night.
And you know, Memphis relies on its ground game
or as worse, two lanes been more of a passing attack.
So it could impact them quite a bit.
- Yeah, I'm gonna lay it with Memphis.
When I look at the passing attacks
that two lanes face this year,
like Army Southern Miss K-State,
which I don't think is great throwing the ball Duke,
which doesn't have a passing game and South Al.
So clearly the win does impact this.
Memphis does like the throw the ball deep.
But as Tom mentioned, they spread you out
and run you pretty good.
I think Memphis is just a different class
than in two lane here.
- Give me Purdue.
I'll lay the three and a half with the Boiler Makers.
I'm a little bit concerned about Washington.
What's going on in the locker room?
I know you meant Devon Williams isn't playing.
But Purdue has been,
I was one of my takeaways from big 10 media days.
How much deeper the big 10 was,
Purdue is way better this season.
Bariotum's got a squad playing, Ryan Brown.
Playing really well and they are running the football.
This to me feels like Pac-12 versus big 10,
who wants it more?
And I think Purdue wants it more.
- I do think there was a part of this
as I was breaking it down.
Right wonder if getting Elijah Brown in there
might just be good to like clear the air.
You know, just something different.
Just to, I mean, take it, take it.
I don't know what they do with the little,
when they're trying to clear all the bad vibes,
they get the little thing that smokes.
What's that thing called?
Is that a little-- - Incense?
- Incense, you know,
you walk around the arena.
- Sage. - Sage, yeah.
- Yeah, yeah.
I wonder if Elijah Brown can just be something different
just to burn the bad vibes away.
I mean, Jed Fish coming out here the media being like,
yeah, we don't have any money.
You know, like that's,
we've had a bad stage in the season
when your coach is discussing the team's roster
financials in mid-October.
So clearly you've fallen short of expectations
and demand, demand Williams.
So a good portion of whatever money has been dedicated
to this roster is obviously going to a quarterback
that has been underperforming expectations.
Who knows?
But wild game.
Wild to see the Purdue Boilermakers
as a three and a half point favorite
against the Washington Huskies.
A program that was playing for the National Championship
three seasons ago.
So that's where we're at.
Don't hate any of those picks.
Anything else Friday.
- Yeah, I'm surprised you didn't have an app
coastal read.
- Did you, I mean, it was a downpour, right?
- Yeah.
- But they probably still should have taken care
of that ODU team.
- Yeah.
- Not great.
But also, you can't bet on Doos Bailey ever
except for being a good time, right?
I mean, like Doos Bailey,
with the Doos Bailey football fan experience
it's like a long Island iced tea, okay?
Goes down real easy,
but you're probably going to be feeling it
a little bit later.
- Looks like a long Island.
- Yeah, we'll see, we'll see there.
All right.
Coming up on the other side, turning our attention
to Saturday, starting with one of the biggest games
of the whole season in the Big Ten, Indiana,
Hosting Ohio State, the last two national champions.
So does anybody have a lot?
We'll find out and more.
- Next.
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- Back here on the cover three podcast,
as we turn our attention to Bloomington, Indiana,
noon, Eastern time on Saturday, Ohio State,
taken on the Hoosiers massive game, big game breakdown,
detailed the different ways that these two teams
are not the same teams that is when they played
in the Big Ten championship last year.
The difference is what we've seen so far.
So now I wanna hear some predictions.
Ohio State, Indiana, who's got a luck?
- I do.
Let's go.
Hoosiers was plus three and a half.
I made it two and a half, so getting the full point there.
I trust Indiana, I trust Kirsten Etty.
I think they've done a nice job hitting with Hoover.
I think they have two real NFL receivers
and I think they'll have a good plan.
And do I know if they win?
No, but if I'm getting a half point on that side of three,
when I make it two and a half, I'm gonna take.
- Lock agreement.
(cheering)
- To me, I mean, it comes down to,
I have, based on what I have seen,
I have more faith in Indiana's past rush
to get to Julian Sian than I have in Ohio States
to get to Josh Hoover.
'Cause Ohio State's past rush just really hasn't been there
at all this year and I think that's a problem.
So I believe Indiana is,
if they can get to Sian as we saw them do
in the Big Ten championship,
that can limit what Jeremiah Smith does,
even though I don't think the Indiana secondary is as good
as it was last year.
So yeah, if they're getting three and a half at home,
I'm gonna take the Hoosiers.
If it was two and a half, I'm probably not taking it.
But a three and a half with that hook on the three,
you give it to me.
- What's our record on UNI-TY?
- It's O and one.
- All right, we need to get back to 500.
Kimmy, Kimmy, Indiana, and the three and a half as well.
(upbeat music)
- For a lot of the reasons you guys said,
you know what else, I don't think he's got enough discussion.
The return of Steven Daley and Kellyn Wyatt,
the fifth year seniors who came back
gave some depth to this Indiana defense, Bryant Haines,
one of the better defensive coordinators out there.
He had Julian saying a little rattled last year
in the Big Ten championship game.
I think he can throw him off his game now.
He's not the most mobile.
I don't think he likes to run.
I think they can contain Jeremiah Smith,
just like they did in the Big Ten championship game
and have more success.
I would expect them to play kind of like Iowa did
where give them up the big plays all you want.
Just don't give up the touchdowns, Jeremiah Smith.
If they can do that, I think that is a plan for success.
And with you guys, it's kind of alarming to see
where these two teams are and getting after the pass
or Indiana leads the Big Ten with 20.
Ohio State only has nine.
I do think Josh Hoover showed me a ton last week
on the road coming back down 17 to six.
I was looking at his numbers for six games.
They're almost the same as Mendoza.
Doesn't run the ball quite as much,
but he has been better and more protective
[BLANK_AUDIO]
football kind of ironically considering the theme coming into the season. So I do like
the Hoosiers here.
The, um, do you think, Tom, you said something last, I'm not pushing back on the pick.
I don't, I do not have a play on the spread. I, do you see the, the Kurt signetti? Oh,
it was, it wasn't the opponent. It was the game state, right? When they get ahead, he's
more aggressive when they get behind, he's more conservative. I was, I was looking at that.
I was trying to think about how that could maybe factor into the total, right? Maybe, maybe
this, this is getting 13 to 10 last year, right? A lot of movement, but not a lot of touchdowns.
Maybe the totals to play. Yeah. I kind of, kind of lean a little under maybe, I don't
know, but do you have a play there? I don't know a single person who's bet over this week
on this. And like, I initially, I was like, okay, I want to wait till this just keeps getting
bet down, and then, and then I'll bet over because the playmakers, but also the offensive
line injuries for Ohio State scare the hell out of me here. And, you know, if you look
at it, man, like, I like saying, I think saying is super accurate, but, but in his career,
like when Ohio State faces real defenses, it's not been good. You know, like he, there's
a pretty big split there. And I wish it was a little closer for me to take over there.
I mean, like, go through it. What would they score on Texas this year? 23, 23, right?
And then last year against Texas, they scored, you know, 14, like, you know, last year,
Indiana, it's Michigan 27, Indiana 10, Miami 14, you know, it's, we're not really seeing
a lot of numbers in the 30s. It's screams in the 20s. So yeah, but it's not a lock,
you know, like, and I love y'all's play, I mean, especially, yeah, I mean, like, you
could have gotten 52 and a half, like what, 36 hours ago. So 50 and a half is, you're passing
some real key numbers there. Like that, that's, that's a Tuesday lock, not a Thursday
lock.
Yeah, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Do you know what's a lock every damn day of the week
of our state?
Oh, here we go. Let's go. Alright, so we're going to go Ohio State in the third quarter minus
a point and a half, that's third quarter team in America. And then we're going Indiana
and the fourth quarter pick because we're smoking it through the dagum filter, snip,
snip, snip, snap, Ohio State third quarter, Indiana fourth quarter. That's the way we
play this game. I got so many leans. I need some locks. So I got one, two locks right
here for your boy. Let's go big game in the big 10. Come on, he's got the best win
loss record of the four of us. Sorry, right? I mean, it's clearly he has found a market
in efficiency and it is betting freeflop quarters. By the way, did you guys see something
that I don't think it was going to come out in baseball, but something we speculated about
and no relation to this game, of course, or any of the programs involved. But did you see
how in baseball that they're using AI to analyze picture hand placement before the pitch
to identify micro tendencies for pitch tipping? I wonder if you could apply that technology
to football. Who knows? Maybe stuff pick up stuff that like repeated patterns and tendencies
that naked eye with, you know, film study couldn't pick up. I mean, I want to don't take
more of the Oklahoma state. It's very strange, very strange on runs and not on passes.
Yeah. Also, we had a bunch of NFL guys reach out and say, yeah, peanut punch is a major
trend this year. Everybody's teaching it like crazy. We had the most fumbles this year.
Or it's the last week in the NFL that we've had like ever. Yeah. Yeah, very good.
All right. So we've got everybody's got a little piece. Love when that happens here in a big
game like this one Ohio State Indiana. That one will kick off at noon Eastern time from
Bloomington. Now, let's take it into prime time up in Provo Notre Dame BYU. Who's got
luck? Irish. All right. I think they're just a much better team. I don't know if Notre
Dame's offense is like, you know, they're not twenty nineteen LSU, but I do trust their
defense. I really do trust their defense. I trust car to make good decisions. And I
just don't think these teams are on the same level. I think that Notre Dame's defense
comes out and shuts out their shuts down. Not shuts out. I'm sure they clipped shuts
down this BYU offense. I agree with the latter half of that. I think that the only real
path BYU has to winning this game is to like Oklahoma. Like the Sooners did to Texas last
week. Just really drag those guys out into the street and have a fist fight. And I just
I don't if it becomes a high scoring game or they need to score and keep up. I just don't
see it happening. So I'm taking the BYU team total under seventeen and a half. Yeah.
That's I think it's really good. Yeah. Then you got any play here? I do. I have it written
down. Drop it. Let's go. Give me BYU in the ten and a half. Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight.
It's the biggest game in Provo history. Even bigger than when the Miami Hurricanes came
to town in the eighties. Altitude will impact Notre Dame in the fourth quarter. I think
Bear Bachmire. He's kind of built to win those ugly type of games. I did say win. But
I if I get in ten and a half. Dang it. I'll do it. Notre Dame fans think I hate them.
I don't hate them. I do think this is their best test by far and what is going to be a
hostile environment. CJ Carr has been really, really good. I don't know. I don't trying
to recall a game where he's been in a spot like this since his first two games as a starter.
Just came up on the wrong end. So kind of need to see it first. I think the lines of
scrimmage will be where BYU can go toe to toe. Now they've got to stop Notre Dame's
run game. So yeah, of course, I'm hating Notre Dame. Just hate them. I get ten and a half
points. I'm saying I hate BYU. So I'm rolling out the record books right in this lock
fight. And I do say I am assuming Leonard Moore is probably going to play. He is still
questionable, but I'm assuming he's going to play. He doesn't matter. Cornett and Tom.
I think it might versus legend, Glasgow and Kyle Casper are two pretty competent receivers
on the outside. I think Barabocmeyer is good enough to at least get it to him a couple
of times. So give me BYU and all those points. It's like if you believe in the provo magic
then the deep shots connect. Like that's what I that if you believe that there's going
to be just one of those wild college football evenings, which has happened. Absolutely. It's
just going to be like, how did Glasgow make that contested catch? She was all over him
and he still got it. And like, you know what it's like? It's kind of like John Matier. How
is he going to 19 seconds get him in field goal range and his eyes as a satania with his
feet, like barely getting in bounds, just perfectly kind of one of those types of games.
Yeah. It's a it's a big spread and and seems like congratulations Notre Dame and BYU fan
bases. You've successfully bullied our hosts into their selections as they do the self-fulfilling
prophecy. All right. Anything else? Notre Dame BYU? Okay. Let's go to Florida and Texas. Both
of these teams taking disappointing losses last week trying to get up off the mat. We've got
potentially quarterback change, maybe coming for the gators, maybe injury related. You know,
probably Tremel Jones might be in there. We also have some, you know, a lot of hand-ranging
over the long horns coming out of the loss to the Sooners. But I don't want hand-ranging. I want
fists. I want locks. So Florida, Texas, who's got a lock? Nothing. Okay. I'll go first half
under 27 and a half. My thought is that Texas is going to be able to heat up this Florida offense,
no matter who the quarterback is, follow probably a little bit. Didn't we say that in big game,
break down? We were saying a little bit more stetuous, right? Feels like a lot of
filo's running is third down red zone. It moved the chains, not as much, you know, it kind of needs
to get schemed open, motioned and all around him. So maybe Jones is able to give them a little bit
of a spark, but I don't trust Florida's offensive line against Texas's defensive front. I think
that Will Must-Champ's going to be able to give that group a really big time edge here. And
while Florida's defense might be able to be had, I still don't trust Texas's offense to come out
and for the entirety of the first half be able to get out there and get it going. So if Florida's
going to come inspired if John Somerall's going to get into that ass and they're going to show up
to Austin ready to try to throw a big punch getting up off the mat. I think it leads to a lower
scoring game. So I will do the first half under 27 and a half for Texas and Florida. I will say
yeah, I'll accept 27. Yeah. Jones in high school when they got bodies around him on the pass rush
was like not impressive. So it's not like he's adding something that Philo's not. Is that what
you're saying? Yeah. Yeah. My thought is kind of like if Texas gets out early, then I almost
want to like take Texas live at a bad number for the pile on because like I then like you let
Texas guys pin their ears back. That's by far the best pass rush Florida scene. I think with
Colin Simmons and those guys are always had some. The problem is we're talking about Texas's
pass rush, bud. There's a I mean, you could literally play a
110 game schedule and maybe not see a pass rush is good is right. Yeah, I'm just yeah
So I mean, I think Missouri is stout up front, right?
But I'm just not gonna put them in this game. I don't really trust either side
Like I don't feel good about one or the other like this should be a big Texas bounce back game
But I don't trust all offense like I trust the defense. Maybe the under but
I was looking at full game under was sitting 19 and a half first half under was sitting nine for the team totals
Excuse me, right. Yeah, Florida team total because that was the first way that I was attacking this
So ultimately looking for the best number I can I'll take 27 gladly, but that's where I'm thinking here
I think that this is another game where we we look at Texas and we say we have to take this team
Seriously as being a real contender because of what they can do on that side of the football against an offense that is
Well-coached and has some good top big-time skill players, but I think they'll be kept in check in Austin
All right
Let's we haven't we haven't even hit a break yet halfway. Oh, yeah, we have break. Okay. We've had one well
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There like look the years ago when they put out their episode stuff I was like I was so excited I was like
This is not really what I was hoping for the new episode stuff is legitimately great
I scooped all of it like so if you're a no out there who was turned off I would home field used to have you know two three years ago
Hit refresh like the new episode used to have is legit awesome. Maybe we're on some on Sunday guys who knows hopefully
If you could if you could tell your friends that it'd be it'd be great if they could you know at least hold off their meetings until the
All Angels choir is done singing then that would be ideal, you know same. Yeah. Yeah. We got church on Sunday something like
You know between church and NFL kickoff would be ideal. What times a choir could not ship. Oh, no
It's just the boys are singing like this is you know
You're in choir and then like one Sunday a month is when you get to get upstairs to the big church and sing
And so like when the kids are up there to sing and means grandparents are coming
You know like it's the whole family affair, but you know will be will be great. My God is so mighty
Let's talk a little Tennessee Alabama. Who's got a lock
Nothing I kind of like Bama, but I don't know
You know emotional bounce back Nieland's tough to play
It may even Jeff says he's a Tennessee fan says bet Bama. I know it kind of feels like I would I mean
I'm not gonna throw this down as a lock, but my read on this game is it's either
20 to 17 or Bama wins by 20 right now like I I don't see the I
Don't see the game that the spread and the total are suggesting but
You got George McIntyre I believe that's now official. Yep. Yeah, George McIntyre is starting at quarterback
We got injuries for Alabama as well
Big game unquestionably, but just very tough game for me to get my hands on so no lock from me and I'm going on a 52
Okay
So look like I think Bama centers out Coleman Williams is out at receiver if you recall one of their stud
Receivers went out in the offseason as well
So like this is why you kind of got a you know follow the recovery podcast all offseason when we we talked about him going down
I do obviously like it's it's scary bet Nick bet Nikkeel and under against a tempo team in Tennessee
But Xavier Gilm the inter defensive lineman for Tennessee is incredible and I'm like man
Bama's defense just played really really well
You got a backup center going against him probably like can you get a couple stops there on defense if you're Tennessee and Bama run the ball pretty well
I'll I'll go ahead and take under 52
I would take Tennessee team total under 21 and a half, but there's no acceptable juices for the lockspot. Yeah
But not 20 and a half I'd rather I'd much rather have 21. Yeah, yeah
Got it
All right
Let's let's do one more and then we will hit a break and open it up for the full slate
Oklahoma state
Traveling to Houston big time matchup in the big 12
We already discussed this on big game breakdown as a bit of an elimination game
So the stakes have been established the matchup angles have been provided by big game breakdown now. I want to know who's got a lock
I'm going to be locked in on this game, but I
I mean you you could have had 57 and a half
Like 36 hours ago if you wanted to bet the over like see I'm not betting 63 and a half like I love that earlier in the week
And obviously the team totals moved as well
It if that had held that's like for sure my three star. So whoever got that congrats, but I
Now I mean now I think it'd be like under it's great. I just don't see as this continues to run out
It only makes me
More excited about my angle here because I do think that my angle is a little bit of value that at four and a hook
If I think this is going to be a fun high score and back and forth game
Give me Drew Mastemaker in the points. I'll take Oklahoma State plus the four and a half
I think they're a live dog to be able to win this thing out right
I think it's going to get a little bit silly wouldn't be surprised all this in the tailgate earlier wouldn't be surprised if Oklahoma State fans
You know are also finding their way into this game even though it is a road trip
I think we could see some some folks coming out excited about the Eric Morris era
It's a massive massive game for Houston and everything that you've been trying to sell and everything that you've been trying to build
Around Willie Fritz
Statement opportunity undoubtedly with the ranked on ranked game in your house
But I don't I don't know if I put them a full touchdown away
I think this game could be very tight very fun
Very much come down to a three or four point result on either side. So give me the pokes plus the four and a half
Well, fight it come on. This you'll fight it. Yeah
You know, the first game of the year
Houston faced Oregon State and they give a bunch of yards to braid Nackensen Jesse Ligree who we talked about before
But they didn't give up too many points. I think Houston will have a plan to kind of bend don't break
I still think it's going to be a high scoring game, but I trust Houston more
As a team that I do Oklahoma State at this point in their run. They have been awesome. They have been a great story
I think this is a fun game
But I will take Houston and lay the four and a half as the home point favorite home favorite
All right
Nothing else here. Nope. All right coming up on the other side
Taking a look at the locks that we've got on the board so far
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Back here on the Cover 3 podcast,
let's review the locks that we've got so far for week seven.
Bud is on Indiana plus three and a half,
Memphis minus six and a half,
Notre Dame minus 10 and a half in the Alabama,
Tennessee under 52.
I've got Colorado State, Texas State,
first half under 36 and a half,
Ohio State third quarter minus a point and a half,
Indiana fourth quarter, pick 'em,
Oklahoma State plus four and a half in the Florida,
Texas, first half under 27.
Dan E's on, Indiana plus three and a half,
Purdue minus three and a half,
BYU plus 10 and a half, Houston minus four and a half
and Tom's got, Indiana plus three and a half,
Washington Purdue under 52,
Tulane under 24 and a half and BYU,
Team Total under 17 and a half.
All right, let's see.
I will, do I have honors?
Yes.
All right, SMU, playing Virginia.
Need, need it.
But you don't, you don't do locks based on need, right?
No, you don't do locks based on need,
you do, you do locks based on numbers,
you do locks based on vibes.
You, you find out ways to be able to take advantage
and, and one thing that SMU has done under-retlashly,
at least, you know, over the last couple of years,
they've been pretty sharp coming out of that off week.
This is a program that they get in
and they, they get their work done
and then they come out looking good.
Now Virginia looked like ass last week.
Oh, and what happened the week before that?
They didn't look good either.
I, a lot is going wrong.
Do you all know that Syracuse was down
to like a fifth quarterback again last week?
I mean, we went all the way down.
I do.
Yeah, we got real problems going on.
And yet, you know, that game still had the, the close margin
that they did, that it did.
So, yeah, last, over the last three seasons,
coming out of a buy, SMU is seven or no straight up
and five and two against the spread,
with the state of Virginia football,
with SMU still needing to find its footing,
playing at home.
I think they win this one
and I think if they have the opportunity,
they tend to run it out a little bit.
I'll take SMU minus the nine and a half or eight and a half.
I hope nine and a half still there.
It is.
It is.
I don't hate that.
All right.
Since, yeah.
Okay.
Full board.
What do you want?
Who's short?
Well, none of us on a spot gas,
but like who is this shooting the viewers pick so far?
Danny.
Danny.
All right.
I will go, I will go to a spot where I think this team
had a really, really much needed win last week.
In fact, you could even say it was one turn.
Season around.
Oh, give me Oklahoma.
Lane, the six and a half versus Kentucky.
Now I've faded Kentucky last week and I regretted it.
Moment, I looked up and saw that score
and saw that thing get in tight.
But I do think when I look at Oklahoma's defense,
I think they're closer to Alabama's defense,
which helped this team to 17 points.
I think they'll have a better game plan for Kenny Minchi
and you saw Blake Baker have.
Will Stein is a genius and I love what he's been able to do,
but I also think this was a huge confidence boost
for one John Matier mentioned those last couple throws.
And I think he finally realized if I just don't screw it up,
my defense is good enough to win games.
I think their offense started to execute a little bit more
efficiently too, a little more push up front,
a little more in the run game.
I think they get it done all lay the number at home
or the sooners fight.
- Oh, fight, fight, fight, fight, fight, fight.
- I mean, Oklahoma was dominated in that game.
They had a punt block and a pick six.
Like I think their offense is still hot garbage.
I think Kentucky lines of scrimmage wise
can hang with the sooners and I don't think Oklahoma
is well equipped to take advantage of Kentucky secondary.
That's not that great, like compared to what they have up front.
And like I trust men she, man,
I don't think he's like an amazing superstar,
but he has a great feel for operating what Will Stein
wants him to do in that offense.
So yeah, I think Kat's on the field.
- Ooh. - All right.
- Whoo. - That's a foul.
- I don't trust the tier, man.
Like we had 55 minutes of crap
and then we had like three nice throws.
But I'm probably wrong here
'cause Danny did play quarterback
and he, like those last couple throws were nice.
Confidence booster, that's all I needed.
Just get that monkey off his back, all that criticism.
Now we've unleashed the real geometry.
- Are you, are you suffering from brain fog, low energy?
Well, here's two 10 yard completions
to get your confidence back.
- Hey, baby steps.
- That's right. - That's tough.
All right, Tom, what would you like?
- Let's, I'm gonna go, nobody's popped the three star.
- Oh. - So I will do that.
My three star lock of the week, I'm hot.
I've won the last two after losing what the first four.
Utah, first half, minus eight and a half.
Utah, like they think last week against Kansas
was the first time they struggled a little bit
in the first half of a game.
But typically speaking this year,
they've been killing teams in the first 30 minutes of a game.
Colorado is a team that I believe is prime
to be killed quickly.
Like they are starting Isaac Wilson at quarterback again
and frankly, that's an auto fade for me.
Like it's just a situation where I,
I don't know what's going on with Julian Lewis.
I know he hasn't been great,
but he's been better than Isaac Wilson.
But they keep throwing Isaac Wilson out there.
I have very little faith in the go-go offense.
I don't have much faith in that Colorado defense.
And I just think that this one will be over about half time.
So Utah, minus eight and a half and the first half.
- Are you gonna fight us?
- No, I'm gonna wait, but I do link--
- Think of being against my bud.
- I link Colorado here.
- I know, I link Colorado here.
I just, like Utah really was on discipline
last week on defense.
A lot of like the motion and stuff that Kansas does,
they did not handle well.
Like if Colorado can steal a little bit of that,
Brendan Marion likes to do a lot of that kind of stuff.
Maybe they can steal a touchdown driver too.
Like I have some concerns about Utah's defense now.
You know, like they let Iowa state back in that game,
Kansas moved it on him really well.
But Utah's offense has also been to Tom's point,
like an absolute wagon, so, you know.
- Let's, I'll just throw a couple games out,
just to make sure that they don't fall too deep
in the pile here.
Missouri Ole Miss, anyone got a lock?
The question mark I put on the tone of my voice clearly shows
you my cards, nothing here.
But anybody got anything?
- I know somebody who does.
- Yeah.
- Yeah.
- Make sure this is family friendly.
All right, thank you.
Well, we saw a better effort from Ole Miss last weekend.
I didn't get the sample I was looking for at the tournament.
They were ready to be consistent.
Vandy shot themselves in the foot repeatedly
and the game was over early.
Ole Miss has been dominant at home last three years,
but I know Simmons and Lee will have extra motivation
for this game.
Missouri will certainly test this defense,
and I think we will see points from both teams.
This total is three points higher than I would prefer,
but I'm going with it because we should get a shoot out here.
Missouri is traveling at the tail end of a pretty tough
four game stretch, but Ole Miss is coming off a buy
in an easy win at Vandy.
So here's the two-for-one special,
giving over 58 and a half and a rev is minus five and a half,
tooth emoji, tooth emoji, lock emoji, lock emoji.
He also is laying it with Banna.
And he has a hilarious photo of himself laughing at LSU,
but no goggles.
- Ole Miss plus-- - Which is the throwback.
- Ole Miss plus over in a home game.
That's a yuck it up back patent kind of time, you know?
Just looking for these touchdowns.
Let's go light it up the board.
- I'll lock agreement with the dentist on Ole Miss minus five
and a half.
Does concern me, I think there will be a lot of points,
but in a high possession game, who do you trust more?
I trust you to add Pamela.
Austin Simmons has been fantastic.
He went toe-to-toe with Camario Taylor in Stark Vegas,
but I think this game could be similar
where you see Ole Miss pull away late.
Couple of those possessions that I think Bud mentioned this one time.
Austin Simmons, a little loose with the football on that one.
I think Ole Miss's defense could get a turnover too
when it matters the most, so give me all this. I'll lay the five and a half.
on Saturday night. Hard rock stadium Florida State coming to town rivalry renewed. Who's got a lock? Why
why'd you have to get this game in? Yeah, they made me do this on big game breakdown bro. When you were
out on Tuesday. No locks. Heck no. Okay, I got one and it's my three star. Oh, Lanham.
Miami second half minus nine and a half. Yeah, that's a good one. Twist the knife recruits in the
building. Quit watch. I don't know. Like I add any number of your alerts alarms or systems.
There is every I mean, yeah, sure. We don't play the outline game in this particular competition,
but yeah, if you want to do that as well, that's fine. If Florida State shows up here on fire,
if Miami is playing with its food early, I'll tell you what they ain't going to be doing is playing
with their food in the second half of this game. They are going to be putting Florida State in a locker
and enjoying every dagum minute of it. So yeah, second half minus nine and a half for the youth.
My daughter's both really my daughter's both really want to go to this game. And I'm like,
why do you guys want to go get harassed? Three hours down there. I told him, maybe we go tailgate.
I'm like, enjoy some of the pre game festivities. I mean, but would you would y'all would know
better than I would? Would it still be downright mean when the differences? I guess it is at the
rivalry that we won't get the same fights that we would get in the parking lot if these two teams
were both ranked, right? No, you know, I mean, given the lack of good home games, Miami has a
sheer like you got to get your recruits and you got to get your fights in as well. I fully expect
to fight. I do too. Okay. And they are. They do have to celebrate the 20 year anniversary of the FIU
brawl. That's right. That was yesterday. Yeah. Never forget Ned. Shout out Lamar Thomas. We
stand never seen in a broadcast booth again. All right. Be Lamar. Imagine why. All right. One more
that I'll throw your way. And then just sort of like we can start taking this any where we want.
Mississippi State LSU. The Camario questions. Yeah. We'll see. I got one. Okay. Okay. Let's go.
Mississippi State team total under 20 and a half. Uh-huh. If Camario is not playing, we've just in like
fluff bath balls banged up too. But like we've discussed how important he is to that offense where,
you know, that offensive line has not been great. And Camario's had to overcome it a plenty of times
just on his own. He doesn't play how much faith do we have in them to be able to score points?
Defense is so good too. I mean, just like objectively, we would have we would have been trying to
talk about. Okay. So how can this very talented LSU defense be able to cause some problems for
Camario Taylor and actually entertain it? It's not like they were going to get blitzed anyway. So
you're I don't hate who you're who you're saddling up there with, Tom.
Thank you. His saddle. If only it's okay. Text text had his chance. He had his moment.
Yeah. Text we had a text had to be put down just too too many losses the last two weeks.
This is when we put down dogs and then gone on runs. Text had to go now. Here we go.
Head to take text to Wyoming. I mean, there's like
50,000 of liquidity right now that you could go scoop if you wanted to bet Mississippi State plus
14 and a half. That tells me that somebody's pretty confident. He ain't playing because otherwise
you're not you're not leaving all those those, you know, exchange orders out, right? You know,
call she and very various others. What do those words mean? It's it's a it's a good tool to use,
right? I'm not doubting the I'm not doubting your inputs. I'm not I'm not doubting that I just I do
not know what the outputs mean. Well, okay. So typically like in a game it's called a circled game,
right? Where we don't know if the quarterback's going to play. The game is circled on the
odd circle game. Right. Yeah, yeah. So so the limits are typically lower, you know,
but in peer to peer, that's not the case. So some people have removed the circles from their
offerings that are letting you take Mississippi State at very large quantities if you want to.
Gotcha. All right, bud. Where do you want to go? Take it. We're out. We'll tell us what else is on
the liquidity room. Chip, what's my theme music? Okay. All right. It's time for sicko mode. Let's go.
A little bit lower on some of the teams in the bottom of the Sunbelt. If things go wrong,
they could be like you'd ask you. That's kind of like sicko mode of a sicko mode. All right,
we're actually going to go with our three star lock here too. So give me James Madison, Georgia
State over 57 and a half. I think both these teams can score points. I do think that James,
you can run up a big number here on offense. I think Georgia State can score enough to get us
there. I think this game's in the 60s. I'm not sure this is sick. I don't think that's sick.
All right. These are two of the best teams in the Sunbelt.
All right. And cancel the music. Keep the three star over 57 and a half. We'll have a separate
sicko later. Okay. It's a fun game. Yeah. Yeah. I hope people were able to get. Didn't they?
I don't even think you got to be on the pluce for that. I think that one got all the way up to the
you. Is that for you? Nice. Let me check. Let me see. I mean, it'll probably get moved to the news
at some point at some point. There's supposed to be some weather this weekend. So who knows? But
yeah, no, that's that's on the you. Yeah. No, I got a press release. Hey, we got elevated to the you.
I'm excited. All right. I will take us to
Waco sneaky rivalry game. You know, the Baylor TCU rivalry always feels a little bit more
sensitive the closer I get to it. And it's not something that I grew up really sort of
understanding. And for a long time, you know, Baylor football was not the Baylor football that we
know now. But I think we got two teams that might be going in two different directions here.
I will take the bears. I think that they're going to be able to win
this game, win this game by a touchdown. And I'm going to be a believer that they might they might
have caught a little something with a with the coach who's putting together the kind of results
that you need to maybe lighten the pressure. And another coach who is maybe starting to feel the
pressure in a in a big way. So I like Baylor to win this one. I will I will lay the points.
I got something similar here. Have you thought about the passing games at TCUs face so far?
Right? North Carolina with some receivers out, right?
Grandling Arkansas State, which is actually a pretty decent G6 offense. So I don't remember
North Carolina having receivers out for the opener. But I didn't know the other type. Wait,
no, so Jackson Warren was out, right? The other time. And who was the receiver didn't play?
I mean, listen, buddy, we're I can tell you tight in number one,
Gelani. Number two is Shamar Easter. And then we're, you know, by the time we get to
tighten three, we're just talking about depth at that point. But how about the
United States? Yeah, let's just talk it started the quarterback. Right. And then you got UCF
with the backup QB, right? And then you got BYU, which I don't like their past game anyway,
but you do. I was in a pretty serious rainstorm. So I don't really think TCU has had to defend
the decent passing game in non-rainstorm conditions yet. Give me Baylor over 27 and a half team total.
Yeah. I don't think it's fraudulent. I think that they're going to be able to move the football.
I think they're going to I think they're going to play well. It's a big game. It's rivalry.
I like them under a touchdown there, for sure. Can I get a can I get the trumpets?
Thank you. That was outstanding. Thank you.
I think this is going to be a great spectacle like game you have to tune in to watch on CBS at 330.
But I don't trust either one of these all fences. And I think this game could be your classic big
10 matchup, maybe about 17, 14, 2017, something along those lines. Give me the under all day long.
From these two going toe to toe. Who wants it more? I don't know. But this is desperation time
for both of these programs that desperately desperately need a win. And I have been told a little
birdie told me the producers have something in this game as well. It's time for the producer pick.
Let's go. Come on. Let's go. Danny. It brings us so much joy to come on and do a lock agreement.
The only thing big time about this game is everything. It is Brad Nestler and Charles Davis
and Jenny. And watching it at 3 30 PM Eastern time streaming it on Paramounts plus CBS America's
most watch network, the network of stars. Yes.
Yes, yes, yes. Thank you for finishing my statement ship. These quarterbacks are throwing
the ball to the other team more often than they're throwing the ball in the end zone. Look
at Bryce Young. I'm Panthers fan. Bryce Underwood in his last game against Minnesota. No touchdowns,
two interceptions. I know they're coming off the buy, but really how much work did they
get him in that off-week rocket back so far in Big Ten conference, but two touchdowns and
three interceptions. These guys are not seeing the field. Now they're going up against the
two best past defenses in the Big Ten. Strike your send us home.
All right, so before the season, these were two teams that people were saying are dark
courses to make the college football playoff. Now they look like two teams that are fighting
just to make a bowl game. And I take no joy in saying the Penn State has turned into
a pumpkin since getting into conference play. This will be only their second row game
of the year. The first one, they'll escort 13 points against Northwestern. And on the
Michigan side, in all of their games this year, they've only gone over 43 points once
combined in their games this season. So it'll be another rock fight this week on CBS,
we'll all be watching as Danny Cash's and the producers cash.
You know what else is going to cash? My three star lock. Just go ahead and put it on there.
Oh, yes. There's 20 of 43 in there, by the way. Yeah, I got him 43. So good. Love it.
Love it. Love it. Producer pick. Rockin' and roll. Oh, excuse my producer duties for
a little bouncer duty. Okay. All right. We don't get a grand entrance. Let's see.
Are we gonna let's let me see if I can see that. All right.
Taff and a master sweater is probably like the least bouncer look ever. But like Tappel's
already not crazy bouncer look. Oh, give the music.
McKenzie Brooks in the house for a little club, Ken's good to be back. How we doing?
Hey guys, sorry about the hiccups for my bouncer. We'll have to talk about that after the production.
You're headed to Vegas. Viva Las Vegas. Yeah, you have hinted that NFL today
plus would be on the road and sure enough seven a.m. Pacific time.
McKenzie Brooks will be on it for your NFL Sunday. Let's go kids.
5 a.m. call time. Yeah. Cool. Cool. They have me going around like, you know, the the
chapel, the New York sign, the like welcome to Vegas sign. Like thinking we're gonna have all
these fans and like we're gonna get people from the night before. That's what we're gonna see.
This will be the craziest boots on ground journalism I've done for this company in three years.
It's gonna like the best way to show up for a 5 a.m. call time in Vegas is to just not go to bed.
Yeah, exactly Tom. You got me brother. Well, hey, you did some you did some boots on ground
for some World Cup watch parties that got a little sideways. So I mean, I think you're at least like
even more experienced at this point. You'll be ready to handle anything that comes your way.
Yeah, no, I've seen some rowdy crowds out there. I'm ready. I feel like my time here is
preparing me for this moment. But before we get to Vegas, we gotta stay in Purdue.
Washington three and a half point dogs on the road. Sure you can. We'll take the plus three and a half.
Maybe it's okay if we're not spot Williams. We're fighting. Thank you. Fight in the club.
Three and a half. I feel like that's an exaggeration. Purdue's not that great. I will they've
doubled their offensive production since last year, but you can't sustain that. You just can't,
you know, at some point, Washington, whether backup came in for three passing touchdowns,
was it 28 of 39 something bizarre like and Purdue can't win shootouts. They find themselves in a
shootout situation. They lost a week for us in a shootout. They lost to UCLA that way. So if that's
the game script we're going to get. I'm just asking them to cover three and a half, three and a
hook. I think I fade to Washington last week against Iowa, didn't I? Yes. This is what I think I like
to weave, you know, highs and lows of every team. We just follow the weave. Usually it's the rainbow
warriors, but this week it's Washington. Love it. Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight. For the record,
throwing it on. We are fighting in the club here on a Thursday. Does anyone else stick on this case?
Other than Deco. Yunder and Danny took Purdue. Fine. We'll sign action. Let's go.
Kids, okay. Would you like to celebrate your dog's win? How did that connect? Have we
sent off? We pop off any text to Damien? Did you bring your property to life at all in any way,
shape or form? Honestly, it was kind of sad. It was probably the lamest Georgia BAM experience I
had. I was just in my hotel room in New York for my six AM call time for that show for Sunday morning.
So I was just like about to fall asleep, but I was just like, I could just put my head on the pillow
knowing that something glorious just happened. I was not in my hotel room. I was in the streets
of Athens. But clearly, both you guys got the official's Venmo, right? Because they got the
deposit. Yeah, I'm not going to defend how we won that game, but it's great for the Kirby Smart
First Dama record. No, listen, if Keelan Russell hadn't stared down the receiver, he wouldn't
have known who to knock down. It's really Keelan Russell's fault. You know, if you're thinking about
that, you know, although he'd better have better eyes. Better eye discipline. But if his backs
turned to the ball the whole time, how is he knowing who's who Keelan's staring down?
So he said this week, immediate availability is like my time to go. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Uh-huh.
Yeah. All right. Thank you. We'll play around.
Who are TAF teams?
Georgia. Georgia, the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina Hurricanes.
Okay. Yeah. Um, some golfers, I'm sure. Yeah.
He's, he was on, he was big on Michael Brennan a little early. Yeah, about before Brennan came
through. Michael Brennan, Russell Henley. Oh, what? Where did Russell Henley go to school TAF?
Hey, Crow. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Go to. Uh-huh. Okay. What do, how much do we have left?
I have three. I've got one left. You want to go, Tom?
All right. I am a, sorry. I'm going to go. I'm going to zig after last week,
Zach, when I got completely burned on the under in San Diego State, Oregon State.
I've just learned my lesson. I'm never taking an under in a game involving Oregon State ever again.
They're at home facing Wazoo, who offensively is very challenged defensively. They've been okay,
but I just don't know if any defense can stop Braden at consent and Jesse LeGree. So give me the
Oregon State team total over 34 and a half. Good number. Fun offense. Oregon State can score on
pretty much anybody. So in Washington State's offense, I do not trust to put together eight
plays, 75 yard six minute drive. They're going to try. Yeah. I don't think they can do it. Oh, no,
I don't think that they'll have the conversion rate to be able to do that. DK, what's what's what's left
screaming on your card? I get another under, uh, gimme the under in Wisconsin. Yeah, give me the
under at Wisconsin at UCLA. Um, tied defenbach expected to start. Maybe Madden gets some play in time
too, but I don't think that offense will be as good Wisconsin's defense. Things should be good.
It's pretty one dimensional UCLA attack. Colton Joseph's been pretty good, but and I know that
UCLA gave a bunch of points to Purdue earlier this season, but I think this is going to be more
of a defensive affair where UCLA's defense has stepped up. They just did a pretty good job.
Again, so Oregon who has more explosive players on their team. So I like the under neck aim.
The best defensive player for UCLA last week was Dylan Raiola.
This is true. Um, all right, bud. What's left? This is sick. Maryland. Wow.
Overruckers like I they, I don't think they've quit yet. I think they're a lot better than Scarlett
Knight. So go ahead and lay them with the Terps. And I guess I'm just contractually obligated
about Maryland every single week. Well, actually, bud, you kind of have to. Yeah. Yeah.
You know, in every contract negotiation, there's a give and take. And you had you get a little
to take that's true. That's true. Um, got a, got a little bit of an interesting, you know,
in dilemma. Like I'm, I'm not always the best at those brain teasers. Like move one stick and make
the number bigger. You know, those sorts of things. I got, I'm slow to the take on stuff like this.
So I got this like Rubik's cube here. I got, I got two great rushing offenses and two
awful rushing defenses. Let me take you to Morgantown, West Virginia, where West Virginia is playing
Cincinnati. And as you could tell, by the way, this game is aligned. The, the stops are not expected
to happen often. But I, I don't know if I trust Cincinnati specifically. However, I'm absolutely
think that West Virginia should be able to move this football. So I'm going to go West Virginia team
total over 32 against the bear cats at home. I think it'll be another high score and shoot out along
the way. But as it is the offense, I trust more. It's the offense. Truthfully, I'll show my bias.
See, the offense I've watched more than Cincinnati. I mean, I just feel like I've got a better handle
on what they do than then how Cincinnati is able to put it all together. So playing at home,
in a big game, three and three on the season, o and three and big 12 play can't fall to o and four
in conference. I think they're able to get out there and score some points. If West Virginia gets
the much needed win, I don't think it's a low score in rock fight. So I'll go mountaineers team
total over 32. You know what? Since you've got a broken brain, I'll give you 31 and a half.
Hey, let's, I mean, you know, that big 31 and a half to 32. You never know. It saves you from a push
from a weird, weird number. Yeah. But I enjoy is the where I'm looking at right now, the team totals
for both the teams in this game are 31 and a half. It's just their juice differently.
So you can bet on like a tie, I guess.
Actually, what if you like, you could just bet like the spread or you could maybe parlay the team
total over the one you think is going to cover and the team total under the one you don't see if
that pays better. I have already concocted enough nonsense on, on, on this card. We're, we're,
we're good. We're, we're, we're, we're, we're all maxed out and just saying like if you thought West
Virginia was going to cover instead of one and a half. No, no, no, no. It goes to for plus 242.
I was trying to teach the people. I could see this West Virginia defense having their heart broken
where you think you've got the game winning score and then you all the sudden let a free range
chicken get behind you on defense, right? Then all of a sudden you're just like, oh gracious. So
I'm going to stick to the West Virginia offense, move in the ball, scoring touchdowns against
this Cincinnati defense. Okay. I appreciate what you're building though. These models are fantastic.
I'll hear for the people. I know. I'm, yes, right. You, this is a service podcast.
Podcast of service to the audience. That's right. Okay. But how many left?
One. All right. Let's hear it. All right. Hold on. Make sure you get the best number here.
Where we at? And there's, no, there's no tents. All right.
Give me Cal plus nine and a half. I'll, I'll step in front of this wake wagon and,
and, and wear it off him wrong. But that, that's a big number to be laying on the road.
Shout like a cow with a change play collar. We, we might get JKS back this week. And we really haven't
seen, um, JKS with the new play collar, right? Because he, uh, he got hurt in the first half of that
game against you and LV. And I actually moved the ball on you and LV in the second half with the
back up, uh, but with the new play collar. So, uh, go ahead and give me Cal there. That, that's
just anything over a touchdown. I feel like it is a bit rich. I found you with 10. Let's go.
I, um, but that's, I, that's a pay to find out situation. Yeah. Yeah.
10 30 PM Eastern time. You know, I just, we'll see. Hey, I'll tell you what,
what does Jake Dickert say about his program? Does anyone know his little catchphrase?
No, but I need to wake built in the darkness. You think built up the darkness,
say you're ready for pack 12 after dark. They were built in the darkness. So Bane Dickert.
Sure, he'll take it, you know, absolutely. Can't quit Cal, can't quit Maryland is the allegation
at the table. Uh, Tom, you done? I've got two more. Um, let's hear. We'll stick in the ACC for both
of them. Just some beautiful, exciting games. I can't wait to watch them. Uh, give me the under
43 and a half and pit BC and give me the under 47 and a half in UNC Duke.
Let's go. Good old fashioned ugly ACC football. You know what? It's just good because Danny and I,
we need, like, we're not going to get the succession initiatives, but we'll get the ratings
initiatives. And if those are ugly games, maybe we get more eyeballs on the nose, you know, like,
it's right. Oh, man, Danny's face after a pit BC. I mean, the weather is not, like,
they're supposed to be have a weather situation too in that in that Boston college game.
It's supposed to be pretty windy and kind of rainy. We're, well, there, it's a coastal system
that's going to flip the temp all around here. Like it's, it's already done it. It's 88 today and
we'll be 42 low and 48 hours. Yeah. It was 80 something here on Tuesday. It was 75
yesterday and it is currently 59 and raining here. It's falling. It's currently and it's
supposed to be 80 on Sunday. Oh, okay. Uh, Danny, do you have anything else before we get to my
line sprinkles? Tom, that's it. Don't say. Well, before we do, and before we do a review,
just a one last reminder, uh, but we, we gotta, we gotta see who's got the urgency.
We've got to see who's got the fire in their belly. And that's why we're going to be tuned in
and so are you in Arbor, Michigan 330 PM Eastern time for big time on CBS. It's Penn State.
It's Michigan who can be able to stand up and throw a punch kickoff is at 330 PM Eastern time
on Saturday, Brad Nestler, Charles Davis, Jenny Dell on the call. You can watch it on CBS,
America's most watch network, the network of stars. You can stream it on Paramount Plus.
Coming up on the other side, we will review the action we've got on the board so far,
money lines, sprinkles, and more. Next.
Back here on the cover 3 podcast. Come on, Bowden. Bowden. Let's go. Come on. We got some, we got some bad news from Bowden. Oh,
I'm sorry about that. It's got a little heart cancer. Oh, so we need some good luck for
Bowden. We need to get over on the four to six months he was given. Over is rough. We need over
Bowden. We need over. We need to come on. Bowden, you got this. Let's go. Let's go. All right, let's
review. Locks. We got on the board so far. But it is on Indiana plus three and a half,
Memphis, minus six and a half, Notre Dame, minus 10 and a half, Alabama, Tennessee under 52,
Kentucky, plus six and a half, James Madison, Georgia State, over 57 and a half, Baylor,
team total, over 27 and a half, Maryland, minus 4 and a half, Cal, plus 10. I'm on Colorado State,
Texas State, first half, under 36 and a half, Ohio State, third quarter, minus 1 and a half,
Indiana, fourth quarter, pick, Oklahoma State, plus 4 and a half, Florida, Texas, first half,
under 27, SMU, minus 9 and a half, Miami, second half, minus 9 and a half, Baylor, minus 5 and a half,
and West Virginia, team total, over 31 and a half, Dan Ease on, Indiana, plus 3 and a half,
Purdue, minus 3 and a half, BYU, plus 10 and a half, Houston, minus 4 and a half, Oklahoma,
minus 6 and a half, Ole Miss, minus 5 and a half, the under 43 in Penn State, Michigan,
and Wisconsin, UCLA, under 43 and a half, and Tom's locking up, Indiana, plus 3 and a half,
Washington, Purdue, under 52, two, Lane, team total, under 24 and a half, BYU, team total,
under 17 and a half, Utah, first half, minus 8 and a half, Mississippi State, team total,
under 20 and a half, Oregon State, team total, over 34 and a half, PC, under 43 and a half,
and North Carolina, Duke, Battle for the Victory Bell, under 47 and a half,
and now it's time for Money Line Sprinkles!
Come on, cash register open up.
I mean, come on, we've been hitting these sprinkles. I would hope the cash register is ready to go.
Last week on the sprinkles, we got Bud, cash in that coastal, plus 155.
I came through with Georgia, plus 104, Kentucky, plus 290, Georgia Tech, plus 220.
Danny has Minnesota, plus 199, Florida State, plus 125, oh no, sorry, that was two weeks ago.
That was two weeks ago. South Carolina, plus 440 for Danny Cannell, plus Houston, plus 127,
UNLV, plus 150, boy, the sprinkles were coming home last week, let's go!
UNLV also for Tom Franelli, coastal, also for Tom Franelli, Yukon, also for Tom Franelli,
North Carolina, also for Tom Franelli, Tom, you just absolutely crushing it right there,
so you've got nine sprinkle wins on the season. I definitely had a great one last week,
why don't you get it started? What's your sprinkler?
I've got four this week. Give me Wisconsin, plus 122 against UCLA, team with its backup quarterback.
Give me Kansas, plus 175 in the sunflower showdown against the Kansas State team that just,
I've had to sell a lot. I'm trying to make up some money that I lost on Kansas State this year.
Let's just leave it at that. Give me Missouri to go on the road and take down Ole Miss, plus 190,
and hey, they've done it before. They've beaten Will Hammond. Give me Arizona State,
plus 545. I like that. 560. 560, there we go, because Bud's got it too. All right, Bud,
what else are you getting? Well, Arizona State, plus 560, Kansas, plus 175,
U-TEP, plus 257, and in a battle of the backup QBs, Akron, plus 335, remind me Ohio.
I don't trust 180% more than the other.
It's like flash to a Tuesday episode.
So, but how much did you downgrade that quarterback?
Oh, yeah.
That might be worth breaking the mask.
All right.
The one that I said.
The one that I thought about just due to the untrustworthy nature.
Does anybody have Louis or sorry, Syracuse plus 500?
I considered it.
Yeah.
Definitely was in consideration.
Yeah.
It's not cool.
I had the under in that game potentially on my card with just like the,
but I don't know.
I do know that came down to self-care Saturday.
I was like, I'm going to have to be writing and preparing for the podcast.
Sweating Louisville Syracuse for the locks is a bad use of my brain space on Saturday night.
Far more important things need to be happening with them.
But if you're sweating it for the money line,
you're also sweating it for the L.O.Ls for Louisville, right?
I mean, like unquestionably.
If you lose that one.
But I was saying like my rough draft had him as the under, you know, tackling the under.
And I just, we don't need that.
Not in our day.
I'll tell you what I do want in my day.
What's going on?
No, I want Tar Hill to go get that victory bell.
Let's go North Carolina.
Plus 137, right?
Yeah.
Nate Shepherd on the injury report.
Hey.
Uh oh.
That's a chip 143.
How about a little better?
Hmm.
I was, uh, I was listening to our friend Michael Felder talk about this game.
You know, if, if Nate Shepherd's not there, if Nate Shepherd is there,
let's, let's bring Greg Smith.
Let's bring those safeties a little close to the line.
You can be able to stretch this team, stretch this defense down the field.
I think that that can be, uh, they can be a big, big win for the Tar Heels.
I'll also take Oklahoma State plus 165.
Um, just going in there.
Obviously, I'm taking that as a lot.
I'll take 174.
And I had, uh, quite depressing work assignment this week.
Um, I was, was grading the breakup between James Franklin and Penn State.
And let me tell you that when this story was pitched three weeks ago,
I thought we were going to be all sunshine and rainbows, right?
Undefeated starts for both of these teams.
Look, there's so much better off.
This is what they needed.
No, the, but when I came around to write it this week, it's,
everyone's losing everything's awful.
And there are no answers.
But then I wasn't inspired.
And then I wasn't inspired, right?
Because the leaked pet craft audio that, that, that was a, that was a misnomer, right?
That was, that was a false flag operation.
But the leaked speech to the recruits from Matt Campbell.
Ooh, this is a head coach with vision.
This is a head coach with heart.
This is a head coach is going to get this team dialed in.
Let's go Penn State plus 215.
I wanted to be the only one with it.
But I'm going to go ahead and jump on that one with you.
Is that all you got?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Oklahoma State UNC and Penn State.
All right.
Oh, no, no, no, I got one more.
I got one more.
Elon plus 3000.
What?
Let's go.
Palo Alto, baby.
I'm a little bit worried about the quarterback issues.
They've been.
100% worried.
But come on.
It's three hundred.
They, I mean, they were tied up with Duke last year and half time.
ACC champions.
They were at halftime.
And then it got away from a little bit.
But I like Phoenix rising from the ash.
Yes.
I'm going to jump on.
I really, I've thought about taking the plus 3000 too.
But I will take the Penn State.
A low possession game.
Quarterback.
Less more.
Give me Rocco Becht over Bryce Underwood all day plus.
You were talking about the vision.
Like, I think this is a long term plan.
There is a problem brewing in Ann Arbor with some of the stuff you're hearing come out of
there.
I don't know if Kyle Wittingham has lost the locker room.
Jason Beck.
His own players are calling him out.
It looks ugly.
Give me Penn State.
Give me.
In a revenge spot.
Give me Pat Fitzgerald.
Playing at home needs a signature win Northwestern is really good.
But you know what?
You know what Pat Fitzgerald says?
He says, take that right there.
What he says.
He just flips everybody off and says, give me the win.
Who gets the last word?
Give me Pat Fitzgerald signature win.
And last one.
I mean, how many times do we need to see it to just realize it's what happens?
We see an ACC team, you know, top of the standings right there.
Look like they're right on the cusp of just being the team.
That could be a second team in the college football playoff.
Last year was SMU.
They were one win away from a win.
Just go to Kyle and get a win in your ACC title game.
What they do, they lost the game outright.
I like Wake Forest a lot, but it terrifies me that they have to go out west.
Just take care of business and get it done.
You mentioned JKS coming back.
Give me cow plus 317 pull off the upset.
Let's go.
All right.
So we're all we're all sprinkled.
Yeah.
We are sprinkled.
Let's see.
So bud is different ones across the board.
Yeah.
All right.
I'm shocked.
Nobody had Nebraska plus 230.
I know.
I considered it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Come on, Cobb.
But it's sprinkled Arizona State plus 560.
Kansas plus 175.
Utah plus 257.
Akron plus 335.
My sprinkles are North Carolina plus 143.
Oklahoma State plus 174.
Penn State plus 220.
Elon plus 3000.
Danny is sprinkling Penn State plus 220.
Michigan State plus 277.
Cow plus 317.
And Tom's got Wisconsin plus 122.
Kansas plus 175.
Arizona State plus 560.
Missouri plus 190.
And those were the money line sprinkles for week seven.
Good show.
Like that.
Tailgate brought up Clemson Charleston Southern.
I will under 56 and a half was looking at me like the green goblin mask.
But that's another self-care Saturday.
We don't we don't need that one way or the other.
I'm trying to think is there any other game that you thought or any anything else that we didn't touch for week seven before we get out of here?
I mean, I did toy with Nebraska, but I don't feel like pulling and trigger on it like on the spread.
I didn't end the sprinkled, but I was thinking under two like if they played if they came out and played a certain type of game.
Oregon, Oregon does not seem like it is ready to run away and hang a big number on a good team.
And I think Nebraska's a good team.
Not great team, but I think they're a good team.
Oh, yeah, Auburn, Georgia.
I give George about Auburn.
Yeah, Auburn at 21.
I thought about Kent State, USF under 46.
Yeah, well, that's because South Florida under has been a damn ATM machine.
Yeah, last week.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Well, in the game state, you know,
if only you had known that Jeff trailer is huge fans of Danny Cannell and Chip Patterson, you know,
and he was doing that for us.
That's right.
I'd be worried a little bit about Navy now for UTSA.
I'm coming off a big win.
Navy's coming to town.
We'll see.
We'll see.
I also gave some consideration to Virginia.
I just think that they're a little too banged up.
Money line.
Along the same lines of your ACC, you know, they're going to mess it up principle every week.
Yeah.
I was pretty close on Wyoming minus seven and a half.
Like, they need one.
And this is a good, like, get right team within IU coming to town.
But they have to score.
Right.
That's why I didn't do it again.
Seven and a half.
The thing about getting on the other side.
Yeah.
Yeah.
You got to be able to get that taken care of.
All right.
Well, we are going to be back with you Saturday night around 11.30 PM Eastern time.
Those of you who've been hanging out with us live know it might be like, you know,
like five, six, seven minutes early.
We are going to basically, soon as our last, you know, big game comes conclusion.
Wrap everything up.
Turn everything in.
Turn the lights on.
Get going with you.
So please, please, please subscribe to the Cover 3 podcast at youtube.com/cover3.
You can hit the bell to turn on notifications.
So you'll know when we go live once that intro video starts rolling.
And of course, if you even want to just hang out in the tailgate, the conversation is going
as you, they are, you know, watching the other games like the likes of a Nebraska
Oregon Wake Forest Cow and so much for the late night action.
While, of course, taking in the Cover 3 podcast and sit reaction show, we look forward to
spending that time with you and breaking down the wins, losses and more from the week.
And you can follow him on Twitter.
Tom Fino.
You can follow him.
And Danny can know you can follow him at blood.
Oh, three.
Follow me at sheer underscore Patterson.
Gentlemen, thank you very much.
Thank you.
See ya.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast features weekly college football locks and analysis from a team of hosts, blending betting insights with game context and team dynamics.
Key games discussed include Indiana vs. Ohio State, BYU vs. Notre Dame, and Texas vs. Florida, with each host offering distinct picks based on team performance, injuries, and trends.
Hosts emphasize value in betting through patterns like offensive efficiency, defensive strength, and quarterback health, rather than relying solely on spreads.
A recurring theme is the importance of underperforming teams or injuries creating opportunities, such as in the Oklahoma State vs. Houston or Tennessee vs. Alabama matchups.
The team highlights a "three-star lock" of the week, such as Utahโs first-half under in Colorado, showcasing a specific, high-impact pick.
Audience engagement is encouraged through social media, with the hosts promoting a new podcast aesthetic and fan interaction.
Partnerships like Home Field are featured, with discounts and promotions tied to the showโs content.
The hosts use humor and real-time reactions to build connection, making analysis feel accessible and entertaining.
Summary:
The Cover 3 podcast delivers dynamic, real-time college football betting analysis through a collaborative team of hostsโincluding Tom Fonelli, Danny Kennell, Bud Elliott, and Chip Patterson. Each episode breaks down key matchups, such as Indiana vs. Ohio State, BYU vs.
Notre Dame, and Texas vs. Florida, with detailed picks rooted in team performance, injuries, and offensive/defensive trends. The hosts emphasize value over randomness, often identifying under-the-radar dynamics like quarterback health, defensive matchups, or momentum shifts.
A recurring "three-star lock" highlights a standout bet, such as Utah's first-half under against Colorado, while the team discusses broader patterns in college footballโlike offensive efficiency and pass rush effectiveness. The show blends expert insight with humor and audience engagement, encouraging listeners to subscribe, comment, and participate in the weekly lock discussions. Promotional partnerships with Home Field, a college football apparel brand, are woven into the content, offering fans exclusive discounts.
With a mix of data-driven analysis and entertaining banter, Cover 3 delivers both informative and accessible betting content that resonates with fans passionate about college football.
FAQs
The Cover 3 podcast covers college football betting insights, providing weekly analysis and lock picks for games, including spreads, totals, and key matchups.
Saturday locks are replayed on CBS Sports HQ before pregame starts around 11 a.m. Eastern time.
The hosts are Tom Fonelli, Danny Kennell, Bud Elliott, and Chip Patterson.
The three-star lock is a top pick highlighted by the hosts as a high-confidence bet based on team performance, matchups, and trends.
The podcast favors Indiana to cover by 3.5 points, citing a stronger pass rush and defensive strategy, especially against Ohio Stateโs quarterback.
They recommend a first-half under 27.5 total, believing Texas will contain Floridaโs offense and limit scoring early in the game.
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