Week 7 College Football Previews & Predictions | BIG GAME BREAKDOWN

Welcome back to the Cover 3 Podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Kennell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 Podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 Podcast here on CBS Sports, Test Tom Fernelli, Test Bud Elliott, I'm Chip Patterson, coming to you live at youtube.com/cover3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on a man, thanks for hanging out, smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. Hey, hey, the Cover 3 tailgate, where they just want to make sure that, you know, hey, Missouri Ole Miss, that's on your radar, right? They just want to make sure, like Wisconsin UCLA, that's on your radar, right? They're going right, they are because we've got so many big games. There's only one thing that we can do with you here on a Tuesday at 11 a.m. Eastern time. And that striker is to break it down. They call it Confirm the Click. You click on a video that says big game breakdowns, we start by breaking down games and it don't get much bigger than us getting a rematch of last year's big 10 championship game. Kurt Signetti gets another crack at the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team that he lost to, you're wanted Indiana back in 2024, a team that he defeated, very narrow margins and in kind of a banger of a big 10 title game last season. And now they will play in Bloomington. Now, the Buckeyes arrive as favorites in this game, Buckeyes have already taken a loss at Texas, Indiana unbeaten so far on the season, Hoosiers have had some closer calls though. And Tom, I wanted to start with the Indiana side of this as like for a fan who maybe was not moved by Indiana's non-conference schedule, right? Maybe that didn't make your quad box, right? Because of the matchup, what is it most important that fans understand the ways that this Indiana team both is and is not similar to the 16 and no national champions of a year ago? I believe, and it's one of the things that I find most interesting about the matchup this week is they're just not as efficient offensively. They are explosive. They do hit big plays, but they are not the same kind of murderous down to down machine that they were for most of last season in most of their games, especially against like teams that they were better than like the overpowered opponents defensively. I would say the front seven got off to a slow start, especially in its run defense. That has been fixed in recent weeks, but the secondary to me is still not quite as good as what we saw last year like losing ponds. I do feel has impacted that secondary quite a bit. They are not as reliable. So when you take out some of the efficiency on offense and you then add in a little bit of question marks in the back end of the defense, it's really hard to pull away from teams as consistently as they did last year. Yeah, I would agree with that. I also think specifically in the run game, like they are not as good at tight end as they were last year, right? And I think you saw that like after watching Indiana Nebraska and then we watched George Obama, I was like, oh, yeah, that just kind of clicks right there, right? Like Indiana is not getting the same quality of blocking this year from the tight ends that they got last year. Their interior offensive line has been like good, but not great. And I think you would expect them to kind of more dominate most of the schedule they've had so far. And they've merely just been good. So I feel like that's a lot of the run game issues. I don't think the backs are like way worse. Obviously, the receivers are incredible. And I think Hoover from a throwing standpoint has been really good. I think a lot of it is, I don't know how you prove this, but my guess is Mendoza probably got them into the right play more often after the headset comes when off last year than Hoover does because Mendoza was just kind of a genius with that kind of stuff. Go back to last year. Did Indiana ever just look wrong typically on offense? Occasionally, they got like Miami whipped them up front for some drives, you know, and Ohio State did the same for some drives. But they didn't have a lot of plays where it was like, oh, that was just dead from the start because it. Oh, I see what you're saying. They looked all off. How about this? I'll give you this. They looked off in Iowa City. But I don't remember them being wrong and I haven't watched that game on a down-to-down basis recently. Yeah. And that's kind of my thought. It's like Hoover from a throwing standpoint. I think it's been really good, honestly. And they are throwing deeper more than they did last year as well. Like they attack you down the field, which, I mean, the total sit in 52 and I'm like, okay, that seems high. But also last week, even their explosives came on short passes, right? Those were not balls that were thrown over the top of the big part of that was because the wind. Nebraska's like, okay, we got what, 25 mile an hour winds here. Let's see if you can throw it over the top. And they really, you know, couldn't, they're still attacking down fairly well. Pass pro is generally pretty damn good. I think the run game, they just don't get as much movement and it's just not enough, like synchronicity, I guess, as they had last year. And I also wonder how much of that is like, are Hoover's run checks as good as Mendoza's work? I don't know. And yeah, that's like that leads to what I was talking about in offense because if you look at the matchup that they have here, like statistically, they are a top 10 offense in pretty much every metric. And if they are outside the top 10 and anything, they're still top 20, you know, so they're very good offense. They've performed very well. A lot of green, a lot of green on this on this spreadsheet when we're talking about this group. Yeah. And as an offense, their fifth and overall explosive rate 20th and passing and second and rushing, like they've been very explosive in the contact, like, but what, but as mentioned is they haven't been as great down to down. It's just they're hitting a lot of really big runs when they get there. So what's happened and what concerns me about them in this matchup, or I don't know if concerns right where it is something to look out for, they're, they've only faced 64 downs on the season so far, which is the 20th fewest nationally, half of those have been third and long situations, which that that third and long rate is 90 second nationally. So they are very much either getting a first down quickly or they're finding themselves in third and long most of the times. Now, only 28% of them have been third and short. So they've been good at converting them, but they keep putting themselves into bad positions. And we really saw that kind of rear its head last week because they were one to 10 on third down against Nebraska. Mm hmm. Now, Nebraska's been the best third down defense in the country. So Nebraska deserves some of that credit. But like Ohio State, not one of the best third downs in the country, they're 64th nationally conversion rate allowed. So the interesting thing about this matchup to me is if Ohio State doesn't give up the explosives that Indiana has been able to hit against most other teams, can Ohio State force Indiana to put together the long drives to put points on the board and get touchdowns. Because that's what we saw Indiana struggle to do last week against Nebraska. Like the touchdowns they got late in the fourth quarter. What did they both have in common as budget touchdown? They were short passes that led to a whole lot of running afterwards and big explosive plays. Indiana did not put together long drives against Nebraska. That's why it found itself in the position it was. That's why it was trailing by 10 in the fourth quarter. So defensively Ohio State is 20th and explosive play rate allowed. It is not the elite unit we saw last year, but it's still one of the better defenses in the country. It's just not incredible. So my concern for them is can they stop the run as effectively because they ranked 60th in rushing success rate and they're 32nd in rushing explosive rate allowed. So they're not bad, but they're not typically incredible in either one of those. If they're not able to really, you know, him in some of those long runs that Indiana has been so good at finding lanes and hitting, then it could be problematic for them. But if they can slow down that rushing attack a bit and then kind of force Josh Hoover to win this game, I think they've got a really good shot because the one thing we haven't seen from Hoover yet is, you know, what was the one thing Sunday Dikes criticized him for? Tarnivers. What hasn't he done? Not one. Tarned over. Yeah. He's fumbled once. And Indiana recovered it. It's 0.32 percent, which ranks fourth in the country, which is credible turnaround from where he had been with TCU. So can Ohio State get to him to put that pressure on him? I don't know. Ohio State, if you look defensively, they're 96th in a pressure rate. They're a hundred and ninth in sack rate. You go back to last year against Mendoza. They pressured him in the big 10 championship. They pressured him on 50% of his dropbacks haven't approached to that number in a game since the closest they got was against Ken State. So can Ohio State's defense stop the run enough to force up Indiana to put together long drives? And if they can, can they get to Hoover and force him to make some of the mistakes he hasn't yet? That's going to be the huge thing to me in this game. You know, Tom, to your point, I think there's some selection bias in the third down. It's like not bias by you in selecting these, but like if you think about how Indiana attacks down the field, that's kind of like a binary outcome. It's either a big shot in a first down or it's a zero, right? So like their preference of how they're attacking on early downs, I think leads to preponderance of their third downs being third and longer. You know what I mean? We're going to ask a question in a little bit, but while we're just here sort of in the Hoover world, Nick Marsh is special. He's not number four, but he's special. It's a very, very unique talent. But how do you look at the way that this with all the pieces that have come in and all the pieces that have gone out and should I was watching an Arville Reese look like a madman playing like at the highest of levels on Sunday for the Giants. Like, if there are a lot of new faces in there, how do you judge Matt Patricia's group and the way that they're going to attack because I was looking, you know, we've got like McLean and Little on the back end. I guess the Sanchez get more. I don't, how do you think that they're going to try to limit Joshua in this passing a game to make sure they don't get hit for one of those explosives? You know, so I look at this and I don't think Ohio State's front is as good as it was last year. I still think it's the best front that Indiana has faced by far. This year. Correct. Yes. Correct. Like to date. And I mean, you know, I don't know if I like Texas offense better than Indiana's offense, you know, but I also, we don't know how Indiana's offense would have looked if they had played Ohio State Tennessee in Oklahoma. You know, I don't think they're ripping off 40 game against those groups. I think a lot of this is going to come down to, all right, does Ohio State or are they able to stop the run with sort of more light box type stuff and tackle some of the RPOs or is Indiana able to get runs, right? If they're able to get some runs, maybe they open some more stuff over the top. Like, I don't know that Ohio State has that like singular game record on the inside. Now, can you out of Jackson had a really good game for a lot of it against Texas? They probably need him to be that guy, you know, if he's right. But they have been, I think they've been pretty good defensively, honestly. When I look at this, like, I think it's a pretty fun matchup because you got some corners who like, you know, Sanchez has played kind of up down this year. Matthew's has actually been pretty good for them at the other corner spot. You know, I don't think Earl Little is the player that shoot, do do everything safe. They lost last year Caleb. Yeah, he's not Caleb Downs, right? Like, they want him to play that role, but, but he's nowhere near as good as Caleb Downswell. So if I'm in the end, I'm like, hey, if we can block this up, we can beat this secondary. You know, if you're a Ohio State, you're like, all right, well, can you run it on us? Because we're probably not going to give you that ball over the top very often. You know, like, it's going to come down to how do you access that ball over the top? Are you able to hit some stuff underneath that gives you a better look to go over the top? Okay. Yes, Tom. Let's just say another thing too, like with their secondary, that matters. When you're playing Ohio State, the officiating crew will have a say in this too. Ohio State corners are physical. And if you've got an officiating crew who will let you get away with some of that stuff, they are really hard to pass on. If you've got a crew that is very, very like hyper vigilant about it, you can find spots. Where do they now? It's the crews. I'm not sure. Do you have do you have certain names that you are watching for? There's data on these guys as to what crews call, like, you know, like more holding in P.I. and stuff. I want to say it's day of the game. I think that it's like, if you get to the press box four hours before kickoff, your game card that's at your seat will have the officiating crew. Other than day of the game, I'm not sure about that one. Okay. Now for the hard one, what do you do with the, what do you do with Jeremiah Smith? I mean, we're praying, you know, we're sent out. We're putting 15 sets of eyes on him. What is what is Indian as defense going to do to be able to contain the best player in college football? I think they try to get after Julian Sain. Yeah. That's what they did in the big 10 title game. In the big 10 title game, that was when we looked at Julian Sain and we're like, wait a second. Has this guy not been pressured all season long? Right. You know, he had some bad misses against Texas. Like Ohio State, skiing to open the dagger, not the route, but just like the opportunity to just plunge the knife and call ballgame on this. And Smith was open. What McClellum was open, he just missed him, you know, and he played a pretty game overall. Yeah. But like ultimately, if he hits those against Texas, it's ballgame and he didn't do it. And part of that was because Texas started getting pressure on him. I think Ohio State, most of their offensive line is actually pretty good. I think they're really good on the interior. Are they getting Philip Daniels back for this game? I don't know. Like I haven't seen Ninja report yet, but like he's one of their tackles who actually matters. Yeah. I think. And like most teams don't have three good ones. And you know, off the edge, Indiana is still pretty good. Like Daniels can play and OB, the kid that got from Kansas State. CDLB is there? Yes. He had a key sack for them against Nebraska to put that game away. Right. Like that was a game. And also like how do you run it if you're a Ohio State? If you look at Indiana's run run defense, like Northwestern ran it on them some, that's a very unique run scheme. Okay. If you look at how Nebraska ran it on them, a lot of it was QB run. And then also they hit that like receiver counter thing with the weird formation. Not a lot of people have just lined up and run it down their throats. You know, so I'm curious. How creative can Ohio State get in the run game, given that saying is not a run threat? I'm sorry. I got the wrong Kansas State transfer. They got two edges from Kansas State. I mentioned OB is Tobio Susane. Yes. There we go. I don't know how you defend your mind though. You can't like we just you just let him. Hey, listen dog. You're going to get nine catches for 150. We just hope it's not 13 for 220. Yeah, you hit Julian saying that's the only way you stopped your amizement. You tackle them. You know it. Yeah. I like, I'm with you, bud. Hensman, Montgomery, the rest of the interior of the offensive lines awesome. That's got to be a group that not just in this game, but in some of their toughest road environments and some of their toughest games away from home. They've got to make sure they are on it because they are going to be in charge of making sure that they don't get their quarterback dropped three feet into the ground. You know, if you look at their game against Texas, Texas defensive front have been a problem for pretty much everybody they played and those guys held up very well inside. You know, like Tennessee had fits with those dudes and so did Oklahoma. Ohio State really didn't. You know, like obviously Texas got some and Simmons is a beast at times, but like all the other guys that were like, oh, wow, here's 40 on Texas. Here's 81 like all the guys that pop on your screen on Saturdays. You didn't see them a whole lot in that game dominated. You know, so I think that's a pretty good bullet point for Ohio State. But Indian has got dudes up front and they defended this offense pretty well. Now it's a new coordinator. Right? There's a chance the new guy is in there and he's like, all right, I don't know what the hell you guys are running the heart line here, but we're not doing this. Right? So they're granted people might say it's Ryan Day's offense anyway, but that's a cool new wrinkle. Like how does Ohio State try to attack this thing differently than they did in prior years? Yep. Just a phenomenal matchup. Anything any other lingering thoughts here because again, kind of like Georgia, Alabama, I would not be surprised if we get here on Saturday night and like a great game. Can't wait to see both these teams like, you know, keep playing at a high level. Hope they're able to stay healthy. Would not be surprised if this is similarly the kind of game that is decided by a handful of plays. Ohio State, a favorite on the road in Bloomington, but a game that I think that a lot of the matchup points we've discussed will ultimately end up determining the winner. Indiana secondary is not as good as it was last year. At least not to this point. So is this a chance for your twos and threes at Ohio state outside of Jeremiah to really win if they get one on one? This would be your like for McEwen, you know, like for Brandon Dennis. Yeah. Yeah. Could be a good to be big time stuff. All right. Coming up on the other side, Saturday night, Provo, Utah, Irish are coming to town. What are going to be the big matchup points of BYU's going to spring the upset? What's on Marcus Freeman's checklist? If we do these things, we win the game. All that and more. Next. Back here on the cover 3 podcast, but Elliott says something nice about BYU challenge. Go. Excellent team. Really well coached, right? They know who they are. They play within themselves. They don't make mistakes. They let you make mistakes and they capitalize on those mistakes. They they're really good at handling business. I love Kalani, by the way. Like and a guy that I truly, I've seen him talk at clinics a couple of times. I think he like truly has real love for his players and they're like overall well-being as people as well as just what we know what they do for him on the field. So his wife is from outside of Lakeland, right? So annually, he speaks down here at the coaching clinic in Orlando. Yeah, like I think they knock out like the family trip and the Disney trip and all that stuff in January when it's nice weather. I just think he's an excellent coach. You know, and they get the absolute max. I think they can get out of their talent. Yeah, what do we do without like we've got one game without LJ Martin, right? This is a different challenge to go into this game without LJ Martin as well. How how do we grade the Cougars without the reigning big 12 offensive player of the year? It matters, but like I don't know that I changed by opinion on this game with or without him. I do not manually adjust a rating necessarily, right? Minus. You need them. I mean, LJ Martin is a special and productive player. If BYU wins this football game, the things that they need to do to win this football game, they could still do without LJ Martin. Does that feel fair? Yeah. I mean, they didn't have them last week. They still rushed for 5.7 yards per carry. That's if the off. I was thinking if the offensive line can get a push against Notre Dame, then they that's the challenge. The challenge is before you even hand the ball off, right? You know, like it's it's had LJ Martin back there, but you weren't getting a push up front against Notre Dame's defensive front. It didn't matter whether it's LJ Martin or not. So I think they could still win this game, even without LJ Martin, if they are able to do the other things that they need to do, which include shows some threatening downfield passing attack. Don't allow Notre Dame to be able to crowd the line of scrimmage and be able to use the numbers advantage to overcome. BYU's got a top-of-the-line college football size, right? Yeah. So that's a bare-buck Meyer pushing the ball down the field. All of those challenges, I think they could still do those things. It's just going to be really tough against one of the best defenses in the country. And I think specifically how do they push the ball down the field, right? It's usually off play action, right? They're they're just straight drop-back game is pretty unimpressive to me, you know? And like just being frank here, I think again, playing with themselves, running the ball, running bare, play action, all those things really work for them typically on a week-to-week basis. But I do kind of wonder like boiling point theory, okay? Once it gets to a certain temperature, does some of this stuff work if the underlying stuff doesn't work well enough, right? Like if they need to go out there and they score like 24 to win a game against elite defense, that has a bunch of future pros. And you just don't see that on a week-to-week basis in the big 12. And it's not trying to shade the big 12. It's just like even unless you think the NFL drafts like really biased, you don't see top of the line NFL defensive players coming out of that league at the rate that you do out of like the SEC or the big 10, and really Notre Dame is like one of those rosters, you know? I think if you're Notre Dame, you look at these receivers like, okay, you know what? Glassker, if he's really on, that's a guy we've got to respect. Yeah, the other pass catchers, they wouldn't be on our roster, they wouldn't be on scholarship here, right? So we face better stuff in practice other than Glassker pretty much every day. So we're going to be all eyes on Glassker. And if one of your twos or threes can beat us, and we've got a lot of guys in a second here are going to go play in the NFL against a lot of guys who won't. Then you know what? We'll tip our cast if they can beat us, you know? But a lot of it is, I mean, if you're Notre Dame, you trust your secondary a lot. Yeah. I think you throw a lot, a lot of resources in terms of manpower against this run game for BYU, which is a good run game, you know? And you say, all right, hey, if you're going to beat us, you're throwing 35, 40 times, and we'll live with it if they're back my heart, it says some unbelievable day, but we're not going to go down letting y'all control the ball and running it down our throats. Yeah, because like, if you look at what Notre Dame has done this year, like they have faced a few mobile quarterbacks in like Colton Joseph, Billy Edwards, and Ryan Brown, now you could say that they're not quite the guys that Bearbock Meyer is in the run game, and you'd be, you'd be telling the truth. But none of those three guys really had a successful day on the ground, rushing against this Notre Dame defense. They did a pretty good job of keeping those guys hemmed in. And then you know, like Colton Joseph had a couple of runs, like unscrupulous drills, but other than that, there wasn't really a ton of success for them in that game. So can BYU do that? Because I don't know, like Bud is saying, if you force them to drop back to throw, I don't really have a ton of fade BYU to put links on the board. And frankly, I don't even if they stick to their game, I don't have a ton of faith that they score a lot. Like I think if you're BYU, you're trying to win this game 24 to 20. You're not trying to go down. Yeah, you're not trying to get into a shoot out here. So the bigger question to me, because I don't think their offense is going to score a ton. Notre Dame's defense is really good. Is can BYU's defense stop Notre Dame's offense? Because if you look at BYU, like they're a good defense, but they're not great. Like, statistically, they're hovering in that top 20's range in most numbers. Some they're a little better, some they're a little worse. And the thing that really kills them and it's caused problems is that they can't get to the core back. Like 91st in pressure rate and 66th in sac rate. Their pressure to blitz ratio, which is how many pressures you get per blitz ranks 136th. Like there's no, they have to blitz to pressure the opposing quarterback. They blitz 44.6% of the time because of it, which is the third most nationally, because it's really the only way that they've found a chance to get to the other QB. And they've done this while playing against Colorado State, TCU, Iowa State, and Arizona. Like I would label Arizona the best of those four. And Colorado State with the backup quarterback for like 53 minutes that game. Uh-huh. So it's not like they've been going up against any bunch of incredible offensive lines with this kind of, you know, with their inability to get after the QB. So now you've got Notre Dame, who is second nationally points for drive. They're third and success rate. They're third and EPA person at third and EPA for dropback. They're also seventh in pressure rate allowed. Like teams aren't getting to CJ car. They are protecting him very well. And they're also getting the ball out quickly when he does dropback. So I just don't know if I trust BYU's defense here enough to keep them in this game or at least give their offense a chance to keep them in this game. I think that the recipe for success for them is they're going to have to force turnovers. And, you know, it's a night game. It's in provost. So we know the atmosphere will be pretty crazy. And we know that they could use that to their advantage. And hopefully that helps them force for their sake Notre Dame into some mistakes and some stuff we haven't seen. It's just to this point based on what I have seen from both of these teams. I don't have a ton of faith in BYU's ability to do so. But I also think this is the toughest environment that Notre Dame will have seen so far. So on like a power ratings standpoint, BYU is like honestly, depending on some of these you look at a lot closer with Hudson and North Carolina than it is to Notre Dame. Just looking at like comfortable teams on Notre Dame schedule and BYU's up defeated. I do think BYU is better than those teams. All right, hold on, hold on. I must stick my, stick my pretty little nose in here because Notre Dame is at like the very top saying that a team is closer to another team than they are to Notre Dame. A lot of teams can say that because of the way that they've paced themselves in the, you know, power rating community. I mean, it's just whatever you're using as your inputs for your power rating, it's probably spitting out Notre Dame as one of the best teams, if not the best team in the country. But if I was to give you Wisconsin plus a touchdown on a neutral field against BYU, it's all day batters. Like you're taking a, you're taking a touchdown against them. I'm honest like this line's like 11 and probably I need to hold my tuning fork up to feel the vibes, but yeah, I understand your point. You know, Carolina, I think BYU's laying over a touchdown, but like, they're not laying 10 on a neutral. So my point is like Notre Dame struggled Wisconsin for a little bit and Wisconsin was physical and I think if you're BYU, that's probably the game you look at and you're like, Hey, you know what, can we do this for 60 minutes? Can we rattle? Can we do the first half? Correct. What Wisconsin did against? But in the second half, they blew them out. Right. Right. And in the second half, they also handled Carolina pretty well. So, I mean, I just think BYU is closer to those teams that Notre Dame has already played and handled than they are to the Irish, but it's in Provo. That is legitimately a really tough place to play. They'll be ready, I think, obviously in Notre Dame should be practicing this game for like the last month or so, I would think. You know, it really just comes out to me like how many long, down and distance situations, can the Irish put Bach Meyer in? Because without play action and our PO stuff, I don't think he's a good thrower. Saturday night, I tuned you into Jonas Walton's mustache. I would encourage you to watch his running as well in this game. He's just, he's becoming absolutely delight. It's crazy that he's able to break off those long runs despite the drag from that mustache. He's, he's definitely too old for this shit. How many, how many points wins this game? Like if you're the, we use to play this game. Like it's kind of, if you told Notre Dame to get 24 all day, right? Yeah, I feel very good if I get 24 if I'm Notre Dame. Yeah. This is a little similar to me to Texas Oklahoma, right? Hey, there is one path for BYU to get it. And they're going to need a special team's touchdown and a defensive touchdown and a like a breakdown, right? Like an awful holding call on DJ McKinney on like a moon ball to glass or something like just the perfect recipe of outcomes is what you're going to need to maybe, maybe give yourself a chance to kick a game-winning field goal. Yeah. In a weird way, like I can recognize that maybe Arch has a higher ceiling than CJ Carr, but I kind of trust CJ Carr to not do some of that stuff a little bit more. Very much so. I'm sorry. I know that Arch Maining has been in college for 45 months, but that is Dr. Carr. Okay. That guy is surgical. Hey, that guy has already completed his undergrad, his graduate, his residency. He is far more advanced in the in the quarterbacking medical field. And you know, you were talking about their points for drive. I was like, of course, every single time I see CJ in the red zone, he doesn't make bad mistakes. Also, I trust like, I trust Notre Dame's play calling way more than I do Texas. Yeah, like like dim Brock, you know, sorry. 10 years ago, sure, but like Denbrock last five or Sarc last five, Denbrock whole day. Yeah. Easy. Yep. I would agree with that. Get anything else, like places where this matchup could hinge, places where you are watching, like this Notre Dame, when Notre Dame against Notre Dame schedule doesn't face a lot of the teams when I'm measuring them against Georgia, right? Because guess what? Notre Dame may play in Georgia today, Notre Dame's playing BYU. I think Notre Dame has absolutely every tool in the chest to be able to win this thing by two touchdowns. Will they? Who knows? Why it's College Football? Anything else? I. First of all, I think it's the best path to win, but also BYU playing this super, super slow and conservative to try to keep the score down. If they're thinking long term, right, a very low possession game where you lose by like seven or ten is really much better for their playoff hopes than, you know, something where you lose by 21. Obviously. So, like, I think, Sataki, I was going to call it that way on purpose to try it for a playoff thing, but in the back of their mind, like, you know, do you, do you point it away to make sure like this doesn't turn, they're crazy. I mean, playoff-braining competitive brain can handshake on our best chance to win is for this to be a one-score game with five minutes to play. Correct. In Provo, right? And then, then we might tap into whatever spooky magic might be hiding in those mountains out in Utah. Well, we just mentioned archmaning, so why don't we go ahead and look at his opportunity to rebound after two interceptions in the lost Oklahoma. Florida comes to town, the Gators are dizzying, reeling, trying to get themselves up off the mat, following a couple losses. And Texas isn't a little bit of a, they've got Ole Miss next, right? Yeah. I mean, this is. I'm big. I prepared for this week's game's chip, not next week. Well, I just, in the context of where Texas is in their season, as much as we're talking about how Florida is watching things slip away quickly, potentially staring, they're attending a half-point dog, potentially having a three-game losing streak. Texas also, in a little bit of a difficult stretch of its mid-season schedule as well, I don't declare a lot of, you know, must win Saturdays, but the urgency, I think, does have to be very high for both of these teams. Tom, what part of this matchup is you're stacking these two teams up next to each other? Where do you think the most important points will be? I mean, we've seen the recipe for beating Florida. Stop the run. Stop the run. So, like, they were shut down by Mizzou, they were shut down by South Carolina. I haven't been crushing the All-22 to figure it out, but clearly Mizzou found something that worked. South Carolina kind of went with it too, and now you're on the road if you're Florida against Texas with, you know, a little bit of a different defense than no disrespect to Mizzou and South Carolina, both of the quality defenses, but they're not Texas's. So, have you been able to figure it out? Are you able to find your ground game? Because it's pretty clear, at this point, you don't want Aaron Filo having to drop back to throw the ball if you're trying to score a bunch of points. So, can you be successful on the ground against this defense? Because here's the numbers. I got it right. First four games. Florida had a rushing success rate of 50.6 percent, an explosive rate of 11.3 and an EPA per rush of 0.28. The last two numbers, or the last two games, are down to 34 percent, 9.5 percent, and negative 0.25. So, you've pretty much lost a half-point in EPA per rush in the last two games compared to where you were, and we've seen the results. So, if Texas is able to take that away from you, like, what's your go-to? Can Filo be relied upon to drop back and pass against the defense that, oh, by the way, ranks sixth and pressure, eight, and seventh and sack rate? So, to me, it's a question of, is Florida going to be able to score points? Because we know defensively, they can't be relied upon to slow down the other offense. Yeah, another fascinating thing here for me is Will Must Champ against Buster Falker. So Must Champ was on that Georgia staff. Remember, like, they had some real wars, you know? So, if you look at it, like, the last three times they've played, they'd been back to 23. So, Tech scored 23, 27 in regulation, and then, you know, 42 in overtime. And then, last year, they scored 9, which King was banged up for that, right? I think. So, but Must Champ has really not had to defend Tech without a mobile quarterback before. And Philo's not near the runner that Haynes King was, but, you know, Tech did give Georgia and Kirby Smart some fits for sure with a lot of their shifts and motions and things a couple of times. So, like that to me, like, how does, how does Falkner get the edge on Must Champ? How does Must Champ get the edge on Falkner? I do think Tech Steeline is a big advantage here if they come to play. Like, if they don't have the hangover from what just happened, I think they should win up front against the Gators. But, you know what, Ole Miss has a good defensive front, and Florida, you know, found a way to handle them, for sure, but it will let down game for Ole Miss there. And we got to see if Texas, like, gets off the mat. Now, I do think, despite the fact that we just said we, like, dim-rock oversaw keysing as a play car. If there's a game where you can create some confusion for the secondary and some bucks, and if Sark needs a bounce back game, it might be this Gator secondary, guys. Yeah, man's like, okay, uh, let me see, where's this, uh, got this one, this, this, I am so, so sorry to repeat this, but I was given permission to do it from an anonymous source. Quote, Brad White is the second coming of Todd Grantham and it sends shivers down my spine. Is this, I'm going to guess in the private chat. He's a list and I have he is among the very, very best in the business at staying on top of all of the developments in a college football Saturday is nobody is that, nobody is at their stand and desk holding it down, making sure everybody's tuned in, uh, no, no, no, no, no, no. Oh, yeah, oh, okay, to drive that home, like, Florida defensively ranks a hundred and fourth in EPA per dropback, 88th and pressure eight, 83rd and explosive play rate allowed. So other than that, they're doing great. But like, it's, I think longer term, you mentioned Sark. If Texas doesn't have a good game offensively against this Florida defense, considering what we have seen everybody to this point do against this Florida defense. If arch struggles, like he did against Ohio State, like he did against Oklahoma, like he did against UTSA in a game, nobody was watching. It might be time to pass the sticks because, I mean, this is a team with a defense that is clearly capable of competing for national title. The offense isn't and at some point, maybe you have to try something and it's either Sark gives up play calling or you try a different QB. I think you could win a national title with this offense. Not because of the offense, but with the offense. I think that it is very, very difficult to win three playoff games with an elite defense and nothing else. You can't beat Oklahoma. I'm kind of more of like, it's disappointing relative to what I think the sum of its parts should be. It doesn't suck, you know, like, Carson Beck or Archmaning. Archmaning. Carson Beck. But Carson Beck. And what I've seen, but I'm saying Carson Beck was a drive away. He was driving a national championship game, Drew Aller made a terrible mistake, but he almost played in the national championship game, Riley Leonard was in the national championship game. Okay. But Drew Aller played Boise State in SMU. It's fair. If we're just going to use these blanket, like what kind of quarterback do you need to get to certain places, which teams have won the national title in the 12 team era? It would just be two of one of a will, will Howard was great in the playoff, but what did he have? Was that offense struggling all year? No, that offense was playing well all season with Will Howard. They were killing teams. They were one of the best red zone offenses in the country. I think that offense with the number one pick at quarterback won the national title. You're not winning in a 12 team playoff with a defense. I disagree, but we've only had two of them. So we got more time to be able to figure that out. I think that we will see. I think we can see defenses that are uniquely built to stop the run, rush the pass or cause have a game changing turnovers, like you can, you can have, you, you can have not necessarily the high smithrofy winner or something at that tippy top and be able to get it done. I think archmaning is, I think archmaning is good enough for Texas to win a national championship. He just can't play as poorly as he has at times this season. Yeah, I, like, and Texas has to get this one, right? Like, if you lose this, if you lose this, like I, I think there are stone cold lock at nine and three, just given the fact that they played and beat Ohio State, I, I, I, they're in like a hundred percent of the time at nine and three for me, but eight and four, they're out. Yeah. And if you lose this, then you kind of open up that path. Like, you got to add LSU, you got Ole Miss, you got Missouri, you lose this. You got to go two and one in that stretch and you also got like not to like not slip up against Mississippi state or You know, I mean Arkansas a and M you you should throttle, but This is an important one to get just just just to get in a win column I'm gonna believe her this point a little bit more. I'm sorry. Um, let's see arch EPA per dropback So far this season 0.14 Do you know who that's in the neighborhood of Marcel Reed? No, he's just dead last in the country He's just behind UCF's Keon Jenkins, and he's just ahead of North Carolina's Billy Edwards O'Pribula Demand Williams Colton Joseph if you want to go with a more traditional Passer-efficiency if you rank 64th nationally Arch is not playing well arch isn't like an FBS average QB Yeah, he's a kid just learning how to drive behind a Maserati like He is I'm not trying to say he sucks, but he has not gotten any better at the longer he's been playing for Texas He has been the same guy since he first showed up and started taking snaps If you are Texas and your offense continues to struggle and you only get one to two drives per game from your quarterback While your defense is out there kicking everybody's ass You have to consider making a change if you want to compete for a national title because you have seen Couple of seasons worth of evidence that archmaning isn't the guy that's going to win you a national title You might not cost you it, but he's not going to win it for you Yeah, I think that's the better thing is like not win because of I think you can win with with how well the defense is playing You know Texas also has played a really hard schedule of defenses like that's got to be I'm probably missing somebody but oh I was staying up all the Tennessee But that's my point you're playing Florida this week If you look like the same dude you've looked like all season against Florida How much more do we need to see you should life Florida? Yeah, and that if he does not It might be time to make a change Got it um Florida defense you just hang on for dear life Florida offense you hope you can Survive an outscore him you got to hit big plays like you need to take and bother to break some big runs for you Yeah, yeah, got to happen game in Austin Early your kick on sad do we trust sharks team to show up Yeah, like I don't I don't think sarkeesans trustworthy in that way Like I would expect a curvy team to show up if they just suffered a real emotional loss I don't have I don't have sarke in that bucket. I don't think he's trustworthy. I trust the defense That's why I had him seventh preseason. It was like I don't trust sarke Talent wise number one roster. I think you made a great point about must-champ against buster Faulkner About must-champ against Florida of about must-champ just absolutely like getting into I mean Do you remember when Colin Simmons before the season even started they were like hey like how'd you How'd you decide that you know you were gonna get better about run defense? He said well, honestly, I just stopped giving a buck except he didn't say buck You know, he actually said it like that's not must-champ mentality, you know I mean that like that is a like warrior like we're gonna come in and we are going to Reck you today and I I think that they can John summer all said this week. He said You know our groups mentality. I wouldn't call it fragile But we are learning how to build that confidence Even if they have a good week of practice they could break pretty fast if texas playing at home comes out Three and out three and out three you know just sort of like put some in absolute hell So I'm that's kind of what I imagine when I think about how this could end up playing out with two teams They're both lost last week and are gonna be looking for the big bounce back great All right, what uh let's do one more break and then we'll uh we'll speed things up just a little bit alibam at Tennessee Missouri Ole Miss Oklahoma State Houston uh no Camario against LSU and then I listen I got to talk about the Knowles and more next Back here on the cover 3 podcast big game breakdown rolling along Alabama heads to Knoxville for a little third Saturday in October the quarterback situation does not appear to be Fixed here. We're we're dealing with a Tennessee team that Kind of gives me a little well like early 2000s SEC vibes, you know Hey, they got a real good defense. Hey, got a running back who's run hard as hell. I mean just showing business. Is it Jefferson pilot team? Yes Yeah, what I'm putting down oh yeah is a Jefferson pilot 2003 SEC T for ADP Yeah Oh, congrats you got big shoulder pads but yeah tall shoulder pads up to the ear holes um So does that style work against one of the most electric playmakers that we have in college football keel and russell at the quarterback position Um, but I'll I'll let you go ahead and get first word here the styles make fights can can the balls drag them down into the mud I look I think there's a path for Tennessee right like Bama's a little bit banged up on the offensive line Xavier Gillum the defensive tackle for Tennessee has been like unreal I mean he he almost won the game for for Tennessee against Texas. He's been like dominant all year And this is obviously a big money game for him Against what what you know could be some Bama backups there all in the offensive line You know, I think that's really kind of the path right is Contenities defense played like all world. Can you get a hangover game out of Alabama? If you looked at divorce comments this week It seems like like Ryan Coleman Williams is not going to play. He said he's dealing with me and ahead Yeah, okay, so he's officially out officially out. Yeah, he said like probably won't happen this week. They'll be week to week after Okay, that like on my sheet. That's an app um You know like There's a more of a variance to to keel and russell's game than like a cj cars game now. Obviously if you get good Keel and nobody in the country. I'm taking over but You know like they're also we've seen a little bit of bad at times Contenacy Put him in those uncomfortable situations can you know, maybe Bama's not quite as sharp Like and you win like a 24 to 21 very turnover aided game. I think that's possible But a Bama comes out and scores 28. I think you feel amazing about them winning Yeah, I I do think one of the issues is like you talk Alabama's a bit banged up and it'll be interesting to see how they respond To last week because like that they did have a chance to be Georgia. They had the dumbass penalty at the end Maybe you got the short end of the stick on some calls. So like have you been able to erase that and move on or you gonna let it linger? Uh, we've also you know keelens been great But we haven't seen them have to bounce back from a pretty map performance overall compared to how he had been playing And now he's got to do it on the road in a place that for you know Jefferson pilotish or not as a team still a very difficult place to play as Texas could attest to when they went on the road a few weeks ago So that'll be interesting to see I think with the other side here and we've touched on it like When you think about what Tennessee has done in recent years when they've given Alabama and Georgia problems Like they hit a bunch of explosives in the passing game and they just haven't done that this year It's like can they figure out a way to hit some of those big plays in the passing game Because if if not then it's really difficult to imagine that they're going to be able to do enough to win this game to stay in this game Like it could become a blowout pretty quickly if you just let Alabama just focus on your run game and force to your quarterback to beat him Go ahead to it. But I do think Bama's defense overall played really well against Georgia Um, like I watched that one back yesterday Dude I gotta get fill up a lot of props for like his natural feel for the run lanes and like like Sometimes you get these track guys in there. It's like okay, like there's not a lot for a young guy like Are we sure he's not their best back? Because like in the open field he can hit home runs But like there weren't a lot of like zero and one that were his fault You know like Bama hit him on some run blitzes But he like found the correct hole pretty often. I think like watching that game back I thought all of Emma's defense played really well You know stockton made some very nice throws especially the stuff up the seam But that's probably like the worst number of points that Bama could have allowed if you think about it right like I thought Bama's defense checked every box that I had for it right but like right You know two picks that they either did have or should have had that wound right you get a tip ball that's caught You know and and you follow on zero of four fumbles So like what I'm saying like what what they go to Georgia 2428 wherever that game ended was 20 to 17 Sure, okay, right. I thought they played to an effort that was like that would have been reflected more of like a score in the teens And I think that's with stockton playing well with Georgia blocking them well with Philips running really well with with with freshman receivers for Georgia You know stepping up So Again, I think if Bama shows up Tennessee's offense is going to be a very hard time operating because like some of these guys for Bama are playing Well on defense Yeah, great job by Kane Womack getting that group ready to go they've got a it's a lot of it psychological But you know will be interesting to get to say you were talking about peanut um, and you know are we sure he's not the number one we you already took me down memory lane with the Jefferson pilot But I mean time. Remember in the early 2010s like every single Alabama game we'd find a new running back we loved. I was always in love with the third string running back who'd come in at the end of these games and it ends up being Eddie Lacey and Trent Richardson and you know like all these players who go on to have very prolific back before the transfer portal chip. Who's the most Jefferson pilot player of all time? Oh, it's probably a line bet. You know, I'm going to go David Pollock. I was going to say like Deuce McHallister. Yeah. Yeah. That works too. Because I was going like Jamal Lewis or like Travis Henry, but they they were as a good team. So they were getting they were getting like the big time showcase. They were always the Jefferson pilot game, you know, like all star for a theme that was like third, fourth, fifth or sixth in the SEC. Jeff and Sneed. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I was like Thomas Davis maybe of that era, but to your point, he was getting like they were good. Yeah. He was getting he was on CBS, right? He was on the old SEC on CBS game. Yeah. Most frequent participants on Jefferson pilot games, Vandy Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi state, Ole Miss. That checks. There you go. That definitely checks. Speaking of, Missouri Ole Miss might have been a Jefferson pilot game back in the day. I know it's ranked on ranked, but TV works Ole Miss, put the absolute work on Vanderbilt. Disrespectful. It's not the way. Don't invite Ole Miss over your house. Look what they did in Nashville. It was disrespectful. Might even walked out with some fancy artwork. Missouri didn't play great, but man, they did more than enough to be able to win Handeli 27 to 6 last week. Big time meeting, but Tom, yes. You want to talk disrespectful. Listen, I know television decisions are made on ratings, but Tennessee, Alabama, getting the ABC game at this window while they put this game on SDC network. Talk about disrespect. This is the better football game. Well, I mean, it's certain. Again, that's not how they work. I know, but even if you're just looking for storylines, it's Trinidad versus Austin. I know. I know. If you're an NFL draft fan, this has better quarterbacks. If you're looking for the aesthetics of the football game, this one could be like more of a free flowing up and down fun game with explosive plays, where you might not get them in the other one. I hear you. I hear you. Austin Simmons is out for revenge. He's got a point to prove. The man stole his job is on the other side of that field. He wants to show a mistake. It keeps going rule. I really like both of these offenses. At quarterback, I like Trinidad more than I like Austin. I mean, clearly, I think Trinidad's best quarterback in college. That's not really a diss on Austin who I like a lot, but I also kind of like what Mizzou has around Austin more than what Trinidad has around him, especially because like Kwan Lacy's been like perpetually dinged up all season. And I don't know how healthy he is. I know he played a little last week, but didn't play a lot because it didn't really need him to. So I think that'll be fun. The other side of this, though, defensively, I've been more impressed by Missouri. Oh, Mrs. Defense has just been bad. But I will say, when Missouri played Camario, they gave up 31 points they lost. In the last two weeks, it's been Aaron Filo and Marcel Reed. So how much of that defensive improvement, if we've seen, has been signal how much of it has been noise. This is clearly a much more difficult task. This is a, this is a great game. I look forward to watching it. All right. So two things. One, on June 10th, they designated a certain number of games for early window afternoon window, nighttime window and flex. Right. So Citadel A&M got the like June 10th thing that was going to be, you know, 1 p.m. Mississippi State LSU was going to be early four to Texas early Auburn, Georgia, Missouri Ole Miss for afternoon and then they had three flex the night games, which is Kentucky, Oklahoma, Bam, Tennessee, Arkansas, Vandy. Which I guess if you put Arkansas Vandy there, it's just punting, realizing that everybody's going to be watching Notre Dame BYU, you know. But like, you, I don't know, like preseason, you got what, a seven and a half win total team Ole Miss against a five or six and a half, five and a half win total team, Missouri. I get it, but Missouri, I think they have some edges here for sure. Like, their ends are still really good. I wanted they can get after, you know, QB a little bit, but also who is Missouri played who can really drop back pass real well, right? Like Camario and Camario beat him, but Filo is more just a play action guy, right? Obviously, you saw him last week and say an M. That was, that was like a home run effort from A&M's defense for about 40 minutes until they were out of the office was going to give him just nothing, you know. On the other side, like Ole Miss run defense specifically, like Florida mashed them. I think Jamal Roberts could have a huge game here. But they also played really well against Fandy. Like, and they, they did a pretty good, good job against LSU as well defensively. So, I mean, as Ole Miss really bad on defense or they just have a really bad game against Florida, like I think that we're going to learn a lot, you know. How is Missouri's back end? Is it actually really good or if the passing games they've played been kind of underwhelming? You know, how, how is Ole Miss's run defense? I think that's probably whatever those two, like uncertainties or weaknesses are like proved to be okay, probably decides this game. I think we'll get high level throwing from both QVs obviously. You think we get high scoring? I do. Yeah. Somebody in the tailgate said that Overs looking at me like Anna DeHarmus. This is also like, this is absolutely elimination game, both for the SEC championship, but I think also for the playoff. I mean, does maybe not for Ole Miss, because like they could conceivably run it afterwards. And I think Ole Miss is one of the teams that would get it at nine and three given their schedule, but for Missouri, it's elimination. Yeah, the, I mean, it feels like anything in the non-Alebania Georgia division, even if Texas loses to Florida, now like that today's not the elimination game, as you mentioned, but we started to get a little dicey. It feels like -- Oh, but for the SEC title game, that's pretty elimination for Texas. Yeah. Because, I mean, they're probably what, 25% to make right now, roughly. And that's what it implied, like, 70% or, you know, ish percent to beat Florida. I mean -- SEC shorts has been hitting bangers this year. They've been doing a good job and they had that line in Monday's video where Alabama fan, Alabama's like, looking at Georgia, like, can't wait to play you guys in Atlanta. Georgia goes, yeah, and we have our 10 missing starters back. I'm sure you'd love to do that. Yeah. Yeah, for the playoff, though, anybody outside of that every single game right here feels like it could be sitting right there hanging in the balance. Oklahoma State Houston. What are the big questions here? What needs to be answered? Who has a defense? I think Houston's defense is pretty good. Really? I -- Oklahoma State's a different challenge, but I just -- I don't think -- I don't think that's as much of an obvious weakness that can be exploited where I'm just going to assume Drew Mestemakers going to throw for 300 yards and Hawkins is going to run for 120 and that we're just going to go out there, fill it up at score 42 points. I think that Houston is going to provide more resistance than that. I mean, look, I guess in hindsight, getting lit up by Oregon State is more acceptable now, given what we see in what Oregon State can do. That was a pretty bad ever from them against the beavers. Texas Tech moved it on and better than I think they should because I don't think Texas Tech's offense is very good. I just think Kansas State is not very good at all, you know, and I mean, is Oklahoma State have a defense? Because that's like the best Oregon's looked, right? You know, and they put up points in yards on some. This feels like an old-school big shootout, honestly. This is -- this is -- it's got a lot of stakes, man. Like, this is certainly a playoff elimination game, I think, and I think it's also a converse title elimination game. It's hard to find the path for these teams to make it to Dallas if they lose this. Now, like, if you look at the overall numbers, Houston is one of the best offenses in the country, but when you start looking closer, like, a lot of that damage was done against Southern -- Georgia Southern -- in last week against Kansas State. Like, when you saw them play Texas Tech, the offense didn't look all that great, and it didn't look that great against UCF either. So, who shows up? I guess this is like a litmus test for the Oklahoma State defense. And then on the Oklahoma State side, it's like that Tulsa loss every single week looks more like a week one, what the F game, like, that you just see every once in a while. Like, teams just look completely different in a week when compared to the rest of the year, but like, overall, the passing attack, very explosive. The problem is, if they're not Booman, they are Bustin, because Drew Mestemaker, while he's got the highlights, he also ranks 95th nationally in whoopsy days you rate. The boy will put the ball at risk, whether it's Fumbling or Interceptions. So, are we Booman or Bustin this week? Because if we're Booman, this could be a really, really, really fun game. If we're Bustin, it might not be so fun for Oklahoma State. Oh, the other thing I wrote down, tackling. Oklahoma State has got to tackle. I thought UCF did a tremendous job of tackling, like, Houston got guys open, they got YAC opportunities, and UCF's DBs and live-backers won the 101s against those guys for the majority of that game. Like, they really did a good job of getting them on the ground and not allowing the YAC. Like, if Oklahoma State doesn't tackle well. going to drop 40 on them. Tom, Auburn at Georgia, Mississippi State at LSU, Kamario Taylor's injury obviously puts a big cloud over the Mississippi State side of things. Other sort of SEC thoughts, either of those two games, big matchup points, what stands out. I mean, if you're Auburn, you're just hoping Georgia has a letdown coming off of that game. I don't think if Georgia shows up that Auburn's got much of a chance to go into Sanford and win that game. And yeah, the LSU, Mississippi State game, really, if Kamario plays, it should be a pretty interesting game. If he doesn't, I think LSU probably blows him out. The line says Kamario's not playing, right? Correct. I mean, seven and a half to 10, if he was there, when you go home field, or would you say it'd be even smaller if he is playing? Yeah. I mean, if you give him a three for home field, right? I said 14 right now. That's the real, what's the real gap between these teams on a neutral, like probably max eight or nine. So you can get the 12, but getting to 14 and a half implies a Kamario A plan, right? That's not an announcement from the recovery podcast officially, but it's just math. We are officially declaring Kamario Taylor out. You don't need those stupid injury reports, no need to wait till tomorrow, cover three reports he's done. Does it go to 17 if he's officially out? Or we think it's already fully baked in? I don't know, this LSU Lane Kiffin, we're dealing with the like Kentucky basketball, you know, Alabama football types of, you know, just, you know, it could, it could end up being a little bit of an avalanche here. They're piston bad news right now, honestly, man, look, you lost old miss, Texan open home to look underwhelming, and we're still on the verge of not making the playoff. This is, there is every motivation, forget 14, Lane should have every motivation win this game by 40 points. Yeah. And Mr. CB State's defense might be there, you know, that's, that's an interesting piece of this. But noles are heading down to hard rock stadium. Good Lord. We're doing us a big game, break down. I just, this is what Danny here today, it's a 21 point spread. Yeah. It's one of the biggest games of the year. It is. Every year. It's true. I don't look, I don't, I am mostly interested in this game as a judge of Miami's mentality, as a judge of Miami's health and constantly trying to tweak the knobs on what I think this is going to be for the hurricanes when they start to step up in competition to compete for the national championship because as we're sitting here with six weeks of the regular season done, preparing for week seven, Miami is on, but choose five, Miami's on my list of five, you know, they can go out, they can win the national championship. And so sometimes how you handle your business against a rival can be very telling. So a lot of vibes that I can pick up here, but match up wise, I mean, it's just, I don't know what the path is, you know, we talked about, here's the path for BYU, here's the path for Tennessee. I can't lay a path for Florida State unless like Miami 100% chokes this thing in a way in the most painful way possible. Yeah. Totally agree. I mean, you have Ashton Daniels who shouldn't be at a school like Florida State, you have, they just did a bad job in the portal overall, right? Like the, the form is always the same. When Chroma go off, Conduce Robinson and Danzy, you know, go off, maybe you get a really bit really bad game for Mensa, but I don't think they have enough difference makers up front to really bother him that you'd have to have a bet, like do a really bad job of handling some of the blitz packages. You know, we've seen Tony White put together some good stuff for like halves of games, but ultimately like they just don't have enough, uh, difference makers when they don't fool you, right? This is not a good roster. It's why we, we thought this team was crap at the start of the year, like they don't have good players, um, that done a bad job of assembling the team. So my real question for this is, I'm sure Evan, she will have some stuff for them in the first quarter, right? Does Miami avoid the explosives early? And then how much does Mario want to run it up late? You know, because this is like their only real weekend for big time recruits to visit and they've got a ton of them coming in. And it's also, I think one of their like few national TV games left. Like are they going to put pit with the backup against Miami on like big time national TV? No. Carolina, possibly because that's at least a brand name and you got Bella check, like you could see that because there's not a lot of other great options in the ACC and somebody's got to be on there. Notre Dame will, Hokies after the last two weeks that, that's not really marquee anymore. You know, Boston College knows. So it's kind of a spotlight game for them to impress and, um, you know, being interested to see what the second half spread here is. The recruiting angle was the one that stood out to me as I was, you know, sort of putting all this together. I'll be writing up a, I mean, but it's getting written up for CBS Sports.com, you know, whether with the alike it or not, we are writing game previews for this one. The idea that with all with the recruits in town with it being one of those games, right? Like criticisms of, I mean, you got current players on the roster, like laughing and joking with Louie McCoy on his Instagram posts, like vibes are not good there. Like, I don't think they respect Mike Orbel. We've seen this team quit on him multiple years in a row. Uh, yeah, yeah. Drac Stadium and the Coliseum both get criticized for, you know, not being these great home field environments. But just like when we were talking about the Coliseum a couple of weeks ago, they said, yeah, well, wait till Oregon comes to town. It's going to look different. Wait till Florida State comes to town. It's going to look a little bit different. They are going to try to make that an environment of, you know, one of the top programs in the sport, which is what Mario Christball's done behind the scenes on the field. And now they're going to try to go show out in a big way. One last game, a bit of curiosity here, Kentucky, Oklahoma's kind of a funky one, right? Does anybody have a good feel because you've got both. I don't want to fade both these teams, but they're playing but they're playing each other. They both won and walk off fashion in like the most like epic way. And now they play each other and they're playing in Norman. Tom Bamper, second. I'm looking for a post here. Yeah, it is. I mean, listen, Will Steins offense has been fantastic with Kenny Minchi. How are we going to look against the Oklahoma defense that for as bad as that team has been all season long as a whole defense has been great every week and shows up. So what can Kentucky do against this unit? Can they keep themselves in the game? Can they avoid the mistakes that be fell Texas and cost them that win last week? Because if they do, I think Kentucky can win this game and all of a sudden, you're looking pretty solid for the rest of the year. Two, two percent chance based on Bill Connelly's post game expectancy that both these teams would have won last week. And they did like, yeah, if you look at like the top eight most unlikely results now granted Oklahoma was way more fluky than Kentucky was. But still like Kentucky was 34% Oklahoma was seven. Get that nerd crap out of here. I do think Kentucky and stuff Kentucky is like competent enough on the lines of scrimmage to where they can give Oklahoma trouble and Oklahoma absolutely is capable of throwing you the game. Correct. So if this looks like this could look a little bit like Kentucky A&M, probably not move all as well in Oklahoma as you are on A&M. But if you get a bunch of bad misses from a tier and a bunch of whoopsy daisy stuff like he didn't do against Texas for the most part or at least Texas didn't catch them, then you could see Kentucky pull the upset here. It's a Saturday night game in Norman. Very, very fun to see how both these teams that as Bud said vibes wise, you'd want to fade after these emotional wins. But guess what? One of them is actually going to keep this thing rolling. Like one of them's doing the rollover challenge like taking a money line every single day and just going to keep on compounding that interest the rest of the way. We will see who eats up doing it. Like, I kind of like Kentucky here in some ways because I trust Ben she a lot more that I trust. Matier. Yeah. And if I look at Kentucky, I think their defense of weakness is probably the secondary. And who do I not trust to exploit that? Matier. If this thing comes down to overtime, twenty, they'll go for two. We know that for sure. That's right. That's right. All right. I'll tell you what we're going to do. Oh, Mr. Big 10 hate over here. What about Nebraska, Oregon or UCLA with Wisconsin? We're going to talk Florida State Miami. We're not going to mention those games. Yeah. This is a rasping. I mean, you know what that is? That's my bad. That's my bad. I mean, that 11 o'clock Eastern time kickoff. I know. We're watching it. You're in the reaction. Yeah. That one. I'm sitting here with with my own like my rundown of the games that I'm trying to make sure that I watch on Saturday in preparation for the reaction show. Yeah. Do you think we see? We go back to QB1 and you G. I don't know, if I'm Oregon, I hope it's QB1. If it's not QB1, I think the bigger question is, is it two or three? Because I think that you can run your offense better with three, at least to the typical offense that you run than you could with two. And then Nebraska, like, how do you bounce back from the Indiana lost? You're going on the road and you're facing an Oregon team that is clearly not record wise what we thought it was gonna be. But, you know, this is still a tough game. And also like the, if Dylan Raleigh does play, the whole revenge tour, kind of thing. I think the spread says he's not playing. The spread says Dante is not playing. But I don't think it's like fully committed to it. But seven and a half doesn't feel like, I mean, I know Oregon has not performed to its level, but power rating wise, you feel like it should still be a little bit better than that at home against Nebraska. Yeah. Here is a sense of dread with at least one Nebraska fan in our lives, who has pointed back to lots of times where Nebraska hasn't always gotten off the mat after that first heart breaking loss. You know, like this is a team that we have discussed, gets off to the hot start, has their moment loses it, but then also might follow that up with another loss or at least another little bit of a clunker of a performance. And that going to Eugene on the road after letting Indiana storm back in the fourth quarter, whoo, it's gonna be a challenge for the corn huskers to reload that musket. I can relate to that. I can understand that kind of PTSD of being in Nebraska fan, but I will say if just as objective observer, like the usual heart breaking loss for Nebraska involves them getting their ass kicked. They didn't get their ass kicked last week. They looked like they belonged on the same field as Indiana. They just don't know how to finish yet. - Yeah, and I think they got like perfect conditions for Indiana. Like if you don't have crazy wind, I think Indiana blows them out. - Oh, because you limited Hoover's ability to push the ball down the field. Nick Marsh's track ability. - Yeah, correct, yeah. - Take the top off of defense, okay. - Yeah, and like look, the Nebraska, if you told them preseason, you guys were gonna win seven or eight ball games. I think they would have absolutely been thrilled with that given this schedule. Like everybody expected them to start five and oh, it was just always going to be holding on for dear life because the schedule is that different back half to front half. - I will say for the Oregon side, and I hope we did a good job of detailing this, but you've got at least feel like the veterans on defense answered the call. That they were, there was a little bit of a gut like, hey, what are we gonna make of this season moment? And I thought they did a good job. Like your Tatum Tuyoti, bear Alexander, like the rest of those guys on that defensive line, linebackers, edge rushers, and like, about they answered the call. Yes. - You mentioned him. Do we believe that bear Alexander was just trying to punch the ball out? - No. - I mean, is there a purpose to punching the ball out when he's already tackled? Like you tackled him, you know he's down. I don't think you're trying to punch the ball out there, but yeah. - Not a good look. - Not a good look. - Not a good look. - Yeah, I, I don't think he was, I don't know for sure he was trying to punch him in the head, but I think trying to punch the ball out was kind of weak. - Yeah. - Yeah, that's not good. For those who weren't aware, it's on the, they'll play that Nico got hurt, right? - Yeah. - You think, do you think like the punching thing is happening more up? I was watching running that football last night, and like just, not trying to strip like the straight punch at the ball, like both the balls that Dalvin Cook got, like just, that, I wonder if teams are teaching that more. - The peanut punch, oh yeah. - Like the, yeah. - Yeah. - I thought you were just gonna ask if there's just more punching in society. And in this house, yes. Our punching year of year increase has actually been through the rules. - Yeah. - So, I don't. - And good awareness of what surface is we try to fight on, right? - Like, you, like, always something hard. - Yeah, yes. - With hard items around too. - Hey, hey, hey, hey, take that to the grass. Take that to the grass. Uh-oh, no, sir. Not in the rules. - Yeah. - Like I had to reset the like no injuries at bath time counter to it back to zero the other night, like guys. - Do you understand these counters and surfaces are gonna be devastating? - And if you have boys, toilets with the seat up, so you get the real porcelain shot, not the plastic lid shot, yeah. - Yeah, that's great. - Um, you meant we mentioned Nico, but, you know, what's now Wisconsin's coming out of an off-week. I mean, Wisconsin's got a chance to get a ranked win. - Yeah. - Yeah, they're going into the Rose Bowl. And I think that we saw, actually, I was asked this on CBS Sports HQ yesterday. I'll ask people smarter than me. Tom and Bud, can UCLA still accomplish a lot of what it has done in the running game without Nico as it's starting quarterback with Deepen Bach in there? - I don't know enough about Deepen Bach's ability as a runner to really feel confident in an answer because Nico, we've known, can be used. Even if he's not like a, you know, real kind of crazy run threat, he can't run. Like he's such a long strider that he's able to get you yards and all that kind of stuff, so you have to respect it. I don't know if this guy has it. If he doesn't, then no, probably not. - Yeah, a lot of people were saying like how poorly Nico was playing, I don't get that sense from the people I know at UCLA. I think they were very happy without Nico had played like his team mentality so far. Like I think they were pretty damn happy with him. And loved the idea, he gets the second year to come back next year, by the way. So, I mean, I think it's a pretty material drop off and I think for Wisconsin, okay, like thank God we got some film on this guy now. - Oh, because he had played in the, like in the game and against a tough opponent, they made it sort of play, I showed their cards a little bit, it's a good point. - But like, can you see like when this game, 20 to 17? - Yeah. - Sure. Yeah. - And worth watching in this matchup. Like I showed the stat on a big game or on a punt for the review yesterday. The two highest, whoopsie, daisy rate performances of the year came against UCLA. Who were they playing this week? - Colton Joseph, who is just a team. - Frank's 118th nationally in whoopsie daisy rate. - Hold on, doesn't he have like the three year championship? - He is, yeah, over the last three years, I believe his career number is higher than anybody else that is still active, yes. - Yeah, let's go. - But I know that for this year, it is currently a 2.72% which again, Frank's 118th. - Yeah, that's, that's seems the attacking Bruins defense and their ability to come up with game changing turnovers and the Wisconsin quarterback who needs to avoid it is a very, very big pivot point in this game right here on Saturday night out there in Pasadena. Big game for Luke Fickle. Because if you win this, now all the sudden, the numbers game starts to work a little bit in your favor. And how about the big opportunity for UCLA and Bob Chesney? Nico or No Nico, you win this. I mean, you're looking good. Like you could find yourself in a big 10 title game. - Yeah. - Depending on how tie breakers go and there's a lot of work that's left to be done. But like UCLA is taking over the role that we thought Penn State might be able to have in terms of like, yeah, we're not gonna powerate them above the likes of an Ohio State Indian or Oregon, but they could end up with a conference record that has them playing in Indianapolis. UCLA might be that team now as Penn State, obviously he's taking a couple losses. - I mean, this is an elimination game for Indianapolis on both sides. - Okay, cool. - It gets really hard to see the path rather than if they drop this. - Cool. My apologies, good looking out. I mean, fine, sad game breakdown, Penn State Michigan. - It's on CBS. - America's most watching network of stars. - Brad will be there, Charles will be there, Channe he'll be there. - (vocalizing) - Oh, it is, it's not a great situation. - It's all backs against the wall Saturday. - Absolutely. - Circle the wagon Saturday. - Good chick Saturday. - I mean, do Penn State cannot start O and Ford and Big Ten play in the Matt Campbell era? - You sure they can. - Come on! - You know, I mean, I love this for us because the 330 window competition is kind of weak when it comes to like, you know, Georgia Auburn. Auburn's pretty bad. Atkins is not playing in this game for Auburn. It's their best player on the whole team. You know, like Missouri Ole Miss, I think we'll be exciting, but like from a brand name standpoint, we got a chance for ratings here guys 'cause Michigan Penn State are brand name teams. You know, the M antenna C is your main competition there. Obviously, like those are brand name teams as well. Arizona State Texas Tech's probably not gonna rate. So let's go, man. - This, I mean, I truly feel like for urgency for the human reasons, for the fans that are tuned in for this, I mean, this is massive. Kyle Winningham spending all that time talking about, all right, we're gonna go into the buy week and everything's on the table. They come out there with Bryce Underwood, no quarterback change in the same offense. - Ugh. it. It's at the end of this game, it's either basketball or hockey season for one of these schools. - They, Kyle Whittingham did the Pat Fitzgerald thing. He's like, you know what? Everything I've learned in the course of coaching is you stay the course and you don't change anything. Like, oh gosh. Gosh. We'll see. Would you make a quarterback change at Michigan? - I mean, I don't know what I have behind him. I'm not watching this every day in practice. I think you know, like, yeah. If, like, I don't know if you guys saw Sean Lewis yesterday was asked about Jayden Denigal at San Diego State and like the answer he gave was, I'm aware of what we have. Maybe, Michigan is aware of what they have. - You got Tommy Carr? - I mean, maybe Tommy's not ready for prime time. - That's true. - Maybe they don't want to rush Tommy and possibly put Tommy in a spot where his confidence is shattered going forward because he's in a situation that's hard to win in. - You know, about a month ago, Rocco Becht was throwing for 279 yards and four touchdowns and having everybody feel like everything's gonna be all good, you know? Penn State's falling off too. Woof, woof, angst, urgency. Gotta have it Saturday in Ann Arbor. - All right, any other games you want to spotlight here? Sunflower showdown, batting in the text. - You talk Colorado and Arizona State Texas Tech, like, gotta hold serve if you're the favorites there. Utah offense looked really good against Kansas. Utah defense sneakily got the ball moved on them a lot. Didn't punch it in, four-down failures, red zone turnovers, things like that, but like, I don't know, but also Colorado. - Is bad, but maybe they don't leak the play sheet before the game. - We talked elimination games, Virginia SMU, elimination game in the ACC, that's for sure. - Yeah, it is. Like, I mean, I don't have ton of faith in Virginia at this point, but I'm just like, if SMU-- - You like, come on, SMU, let's step, come on. - And let's wake, and let's wake goes on the road and loses to Cal. - Yeah, so-- - And then it's not elimination game for SMU. - Which Cal did just beat Virginia Tech with the backup quarterback and a backup running back. - And a new play collar. - Mm-hmm, yeah. - Congratulations, Wake Forest. You're the best story in the ACC. Here's your ticket to Berkeley. So now we're gonna do it, and it truly is. Like, whatever is the best thing for the ACC as a whole fighting for respect, always it's gonna be the opposite result. - I think UNLV Air Force is kind of sticky. That's on CBS Force Network. That's a really good game. Air Force lost Liam Zarka, but then came back roaring like a lion. - Northern Illinois is a little different than UNLV though. - Yeah, I don't think Air Force defense is gonna be able to stop, like, UNLV quite as many times as a red zone as they stopped in IU. But maybe-- - Let's see. - And I use-- - Find out on Thursday. - What is it? - IU's got somebody, and IU's got Wyoming. They are learning the lessons of the mountain west. - Oh my God. I mean, if that's not exactly, I mean, if there's an offense that maybe NIU can stop, it's Wyoming. - It's Wyoming's. - We got a good one tonight, by the way, in QSA, FIU Jack State, like the winner of that is like they're not like buckled in, buckled in, but they're in the passenger seat along with Liberty to go to the championship game. - Please run in that FIU defense. - Like the coordinator? One second, I can tell you. - You're saying there might be some names on that staff that end up at power four schools after the season. - Well, I know, Illinois and T-coach. - Yeah. You know, Illinois's a joven dweet. Javan Dweet. - That defense has been pretty impressive. They're doing a very good job. Considering the talent that you assume they have. I mean, obviously, they're playing against similar teams. It's just typically don't see defenses playing as well as they are without high end talent. - I am glad you brought up the SMU thing. I just, it hasn't, they have not yet left a mark on this, like a really emphatic mark on this season yet. Lots of opportunities left for that. The Virginia game, certainly, the first of those. I mean, that's the problem is you start in that ultra delayed game against Florida State. And then you lose in the head to head against Louisville, those supposed to set everything up. It's kind of been a little bit of wandering through the wilderness. You play KC from Missouri State. Play a weird game against Boston College. And now let's step back up. And let's see if Kevin Jennings, the 15th year senior. And I can go lead some heroics and maybe get the Mustangs into the ACC championship game. All right, we got one more, wait. - You got something for Striker, I think, right? - Yeah, Striker wanted to offer something for us. - I don't want to care for Striker. - My cousin has a wedding this Saturday. Help me please. - What's out of the ceremony, indoor outdoor, Catholic or not? We need some details. - The Catholic does matter because that is a long and ceremony. - Yeah. - I would, you know, how many cousins do you have? How close are you to this cousin? Do you want to go to the wedding? - What's the reception like? Is probably the most key pointer. Because if it's not Catholic and you care about your family, you can miss 30 minutes for the actual ceremony. But the reception is gonna eat up a lot of the time. Is it acceptable to watch the game? Most everybody probably has U2TV or whatever on your phone. You can watch a game or two. - You could also, because this is a cousin, that means the way that family trees I think work, you have uncles and aunts. That would be the parents of the newly married. You could skip ceremony, go to reception, get in FaceTime with the family, get out there on the dance floor to shout and still be able to go like time and around, key parts of the game. If you've got perhaps a bar or somebody with a little game on the phone action. - Also, if you're not that close to the family, like you're a distant cousin. The nanotechnology, man, you can get one of the tiny, tiny little earpieces. Make sure the wife is on the opposite earpiece side 'cause she's not cool with that, assuming you're bringing a date. And make sure the wall is on the earpiece sides and sit on the end of the aisle and nobody's gonna know. - See, I just had this hilarious thought of the lead singers in ear, all the sudden switches over to like Missouri and Ole Miss. - Oh, yeah. The chat is a great point, Hunter Schuller. My dad has this, like the hearing aid. He can like take calls on this thing and I'm pretty sure if you knew how to do it, he could probably hook up Bluetooth on there as well for music. - Let's go. - Yeah. I mean, I got a lot of cousins, okay? Like I love them all, but I love some of them more than others 'cause I actually see them more often than others. So it's like, it really depends. Like, where on the pecking order is this cousin? - Has the guy answered in the chat? - I haven't seen. I think he's probably getting his tux on right now. - Yeah, he is. - 'Cause we're an hour and a half. What a big day break down. - See, be honest, getting her money's worth. (laughs) - Oh. (laughs) - Oh, yeah. - We are gonna be back on Thursday, 11 a.m. Eastern time to be able to give you our very best bets for the week ahead. Week seven locks. Come and hang out. You get up the likes. We give you the locks, the locks, they move, the lines, and you can't. Oh, him on Twitter at time for now. You follow him at by the way. You follow me at chip underscore batterson. Gentlemen, thank you very much. - Thank you. - See ya. (dramatic music) - Sunday, the NFL on CBS is back. - We got ourselves a ball game. - Tensions run high. When Joe Virdo leads the Bengals in the Baltimore for an AFC North clash with Derek Henry and the Ravens. Gonna go to the end zone and court touch time. - Well, some will see the Broncos ride into Arizona to take on the Cardinals out. West, KVN, the guys break it all down at noon Eastern on the NFL today. See you Sunday with the NFL on CBS and streaming on Paramount Plus.