1143: Week 6 Sleepers

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Real money in app updates and purchases available, but not necessary to participate bet 365 fantasy is intended for entertainment purposes only and does not imply future success for any real money gambling. Please play responsibly football is a game of and offence and defense. Run and pass block attack home and away glory and heartbreak. It's like how nationwide is both a great insurance company and financial services company and they have a pretty sweet jingle to for your insurance and financial needs nationwide is on your side. Nationwide investment services corporation member finra Columbus, Ohio. This is the late round podcast with your host J.J. Zacharyza. Zacharyza. What's up everyone? It's J.J. Zacharyson in this episode 11 43 of the late round fantasy football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I'm happy with results of last week's sleepers episode. Some of the really bad picks, they include Kenyan Sadik who had that goose egg and then the concussion Tyler Algier didn't do that much. Keaton Mitchell was if he T.J. Hawkinson also got knocked out early Tyson Baygent was absolutely atrocious as a deep play. Roman Wilson didn't play the role that I thought he was going to play before his injury and then that Thursday night volatility. It really struck with the Cowboys defense. Now all of that sounds really bad, but actually the Cowboys defense of streaming pick that was the only bad one out of six. The quarterbacks outside of Baygent, they were really good too. Jordan Love, Jamis Winston and Jacobi Berset. They had over 25 points and Aaron Rogers had 22. Allie Gordon, Braylon Allen, Emmanuel Wilson and Marshawn Lloyd. They were all usable hunter Henry scored over 13 PPR points. Cortland Sutton even found the end zone Kendrick Bourne scored 12 PPR points. Jalen Nol had a big day with 15 points. Darius Cooper and Dontavian Wicks. They were both decent and then Pat Fryermuth had over 21 PPR points. So it's two good weeks in a row for the sleepers show. Let's keep things rolling into week six before getting in the sleepers this week. Though remember to check out the late round newsletter. It's absolutely free to set the late round calm and sign up. You get the data dump in your inbox every Monday morning. The 15 transactions list every Tuesday morning and awesome matchups. Call him from Brandon Godula every Wednesday. There's a wrap up email from David kitchen at the end of the week. It's a good newsletter. Check it out late round dot com. As usual, we'll kick things off with players rostered in 50 to 80% of Yahoo leagues. And I was going to talk about Jordan love here, but he's now rostered in 81% of leagues. So I don't actually have a quarterback in this tier, but at running back, Blake Korum is still under 80% rostered. If there's a spot to play him semi comfortably, it would be this one against the Cardinals. The Rams have an implied team total of almost 33 points. Chances are there's going to be a positive game script for LA as 12 and a half point favorites. The Rams have led by 10 or more points on 19% of their offends of plays this year. And in that situation, Kyron Williams is out snapping Blake Korum just 38 to 30. It's been pretty close. Korum is actually had a 14% target share when they've been up that big. So if this game goes as planned, I'd expect Korum to take advantage of a defense that really can't stop much at all. Marshawn Lloyd's going to be a popular sleeper pick this week. And he's the green Bay running back that I would bet on against Dallas. The Cowboys have been really bad against running backs. They've allowed the fifth most adjusted points to the position. We all saw that last week with Bucky Irving. My only hesitation with going all in on Marshawn Lloyd is that like I said on the 10 trends episode, his peripherals, they still weren't fantastic in week five. He had a 44% snap share and Pierre Strong played 75% of their third down snaps. So if this game script goes south for green Bay, which is possible, that can happen in any game. I'm not projecting that, but it can happen. Pierre Strong would get more work than Marshawn Lloyd, at least in terms of snaps. So that brings more volatility, but the matchup is definitely there for Lloyd to have a good outing. Woody Marx is the last one in this tier. The matchup sucks against Jacksonville for sure. The Jags have allowed by far the least amount of adjusted rushing yards to running backs per game this year. That rush defenses legit. But with David Montgomery injured last week, Mark saw every offensive snap for the Texans aside from the kneel down. Volume drives this game, so Marx can still get by this week. A wide receiver once again, Devon Veile, he's fine this week. He's got a 19% target share on the season, and we know New Orleans generally runs a lot of plays. One thing I'll say though is that I don't adore this matchup against the Giants. Yes, they've been below average against wide receivers this year, but they rank fourth lowest and percentage of wide receiver points allowed going to the slot, meaning a ton of the points they've allowed to wide receivers. They've gone to perimeter guys. That means Chris Alave could absolutely smash this week. Yes, but Veile is more of like a 50/50 inside outside guy, so it's not quite as good of a spot for him. I still think you can play him though, because the Saints, they should be able to move the ball better than they did last week. A slot matchup that I really like this week is with Juan Dale Robinson. The Colts are ninth in slot wide receiver points allowed this year, but they're first and percentage of wide receiver points allowed going to the slot. So when teams are scoring wide receiver points against the Colts, it's the slot receivers who are benefiting. Juan Dale Robinson, he's a known slot guy. He's run 76% of his routes from that area of the field this year. He's actually seen almost a 24% target share over his last three games. So I like his spot this week. The Chiefs have some question marks at wide receiver heading into week six. So let's go with Xavier Worthy here. Worthy has about a 19% target share in the season, and he's run 71% of his routes from the outside. The Chargers, their opponent, they've been bottom six and slot rate points allowed. And they've given up the ninth most points to perimeter wide receivers this season. So I could see Worthy having a usable day. And then lastly, a wide receiver, Khalil Shakir, we still don't know what's going on with DJ Moore. I don't know if he's going to be in or out this week, but I think regardless, Shakir has the matchup. Only the Eagles and the Lions have allowed more fantasy points to slot receivers this year than the Raiders have. And what's interesting is that a lot of teams are attacking Vegas deep. They've allowed the second highest average at the target to opposing wide receivers. That's always the struggle with Shakir. He has a 20% target share on the season. That's solid. But his area yards per target is 6.5. I do wonder if they're able to get him going a little bit more vertically this week against this defense. At tight end in this tier, I'm going to go with Dallas Goddard. Goddard returned last week. He saw 67% route share and a 24% target share. He actually had over 13 expected PPR points. He just underperformed versus that mark. The Eagles get the Panthers this week. They're in Philadelphia. Carolina has allowed the 12th most adjusted points to tight ends and they've allowed an above average pass rate over expected. It's not like the most amazing spot in the world, but it's not a bad one. This next group consists of players rostered in 20 to 50% of Yahoo leagues. This is where we're going to start talking quarterbacks. Kurt Cousins is first. The Raiders get the bills in Vegas this week and Buffalo has been the 11th best matchup for quarterbacks this year by adjusted fantasy points allowed. The bills have also allowed the 7th highest pass rate over expected this year. And they're not really getting to the quarterback. Their pressure rate ranks in the bottom 10. Vegas is a healthy 24 and a half point implied team total and with Ash and Gentie clearly not 100% it could force them to throw the ball a little bit more. So I like Kurt Cousins in this spot. I also like Aaron Rogers against Tampa Bay. The Steelers will eventually regress with how they're scoring their touchdowns 91% of their offensive scores have come through the air. But Tampa Bay is a good matchup for what Pittsburgh has done this year. The Steelers are the top team and pass rate over expected on this week's slate and Tampa Bay as an opponent, they ring third and pass rate over expected allowed. So I'd expect Pittsburgh to throw the ball a lot in this game that favors Aaron Rogers. Now to be fair, the Bucks have been more of an average matchup for quarterbacks by adjusted points allowed. The thing is Tampa Bay's a top 10 team in both adjusted running back and tight end target share allowed. Pittsburgh's banged up at wide receiver that could actually play into their favor. So I think Aaron Rogers can get it done once again. And then one more quarterback in this tier is Daniel Jones. I kind of like dimes this week. Indianapolis is an implied team total of 25 points. They're playing at home. They're in that dome and they're getting a Tennessee team that's been a bottom 10 one and pressure rate this year. That's big for Daniel Jones because Indianapolis is top five and pressure rate allowed. Tennessee is sort of an average matchup by adjusted points allowed, but that's mostly game script and volume related. On a per dropback basis, they've allowed the eighth highest EPA per dropback and the third highest catch rate over expected. Indianapolis's defense hasn't played all that well. The Titans might be able to do something offensively in this game. That would be great for Daniel Jones's output. And the cults are also regression candidates with how they're scoring their touchdowns. On the season, just 27% of their touchdowns have come through the air. That's the lowest mark in all of football. At Running Back, I really like Rashad White this week. The Commanders are 7.5 point underdogs against the 49ers. I've talked about this before on the show, but San Francisco has sort of become this running back target funnel. They've given up an adjusted target share to running back this season, over 24%. That's the highest in the NFL. In White's return last week, he not only saw a 60% snap share, which led the backfield, but he plays the pass catching role. He played 92% of Washington's third down snaps. His route share was 32%. If Washington falls into a negative game script this week, Rashad White is going to be on the field. So he can get some cheap PPR points. That's the only running back in this tier, so let's look at wide receivers. First up, Trey Tucker. Tucker really has not been effective this year. He's reached 10 or more PPR points in just one game. But I like this spot against Buffalo. Tucker's the only Raiders wide receiver with even a 10% target share this year. He's at 16%. That's going to happen when you have two capable tight ends with one of those tight ends being absolutely insane at this game. But Tucker's run 77% of his routes out wide, Buffalo is first in the NFL, and PPR points allowed to outside wide receivers this year. The bills have also given up the seventh highest catch rate over expected to opposing wide outs. I know Tucker is not being great, but the matchup is at least there for him this week. I mentioned Keenan Allen on this week's 15 transaction show, not for the first time. He's just not getting enough love in fantasy football right now. Yes, he's very boring. Yes, it's more of a high floor play and not a high ceiling play. But over his last two games, his expected PPR point per game total is 16.3 points per game. The Titans shouldn't scare you as a matchup. They've allowed the six most adjusted points to wide receivers this year, the highest catch rate over expected, and the third most PPR points per target. So Allen should be okay as a by week filling. And then let's look at Jeremy Bernard. We talked about him earlier this week too. I don't like this matchup against the Bucks, the same way I liked last weeks against the Colts. The base been a below average opponent for receivers by adjusted points allowed. They're not necessarily a good or bad slot matchup either. And Bernard was shoved into the slot on 54% of his routes this past week. Regardless, he saw 30% target share, and it's a good passing volume matchup like I just talked about earlier with Aaron Rogers. The lack of healthy weapons around Bernard makes him a reasonable play this week. At tight end, I'm going to go to Breton Strange. There really aren't a ton of tight ends in this tier, but like I said in the 15 transactions show this week, Strange is 10th in the NFL and tight end route share. He's a 19% target share this year. He's six among tight ends and expected PPR points per game over the last three weeks. The Jags get Houston. It's a pretty average to below average matchup on paper, and I don't want to sell it any other way. It's not like an amazing matchup. With that being said, this game could see a lot of passing from both teams. Both defenses are top seven in the league and pass right over expected allowed. And given the peripherals that we've seen from Strange, he can be viable as a result. The last tier of players includes guys rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo Leagues. James Winston's the first one up. The Giants have another great matchup this week against the Saints, a team that's allowed the 5th highest EPA per drop back in the league. Now they're more neutral and adjusted points allowed. So that's largely because they've allowed the 4th lowest pass touchdown percentage in the league. When teams have scored touchdowns against the Saints, they've happened to come on the ground. And look, the Saints run defense is not good. That number is probably going to skew in that direction throughout the season. I'm just saying on a per drop back basis, the defense is not anything special. They've given up the 10th most fantasy points per drop back in the NFL. So I think James Winston might be able to get it done once again. And then real quick, I don't mind Michael Pentax if he's healthy. It sounds like Caleb Williams is going to be back this week. That should help keep this game high scoring. Atlanta's implied team total is 24 points. Chicago's a top 10 matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed. In Chicago, they're also below average at pressuring the quarterback this year. And they're down some edge rushers too. So Michael Pentax, he's not that bad of a play again as long as he's healthy. Over at Running Back, Henry Miller looks like the main early down runner for the Saints. This week, when that game was within a seven point margin, Miller saw a near 60 percent rush share. Alvin Camaro is at 18 percent. Now in that same situation in week four, those numbers were more evenly split, 40 percent to 40 percent. But Alvin Camaro also might not be 100 percent. I say this because the Saints might be able to see more of a neutral game script against the Giants than they saw last week. In New York, they've allowed the seventh most adjusted fantasy points to running back this year. We still don't know exactly what's happening with the Browns backfield. And I won't get into the details of exactly what that split's going to look like because I don't even know who's going to be active. But really quick, I'm just going to say, keep an eye on Dylan Samson and Joliel McLaughlin. That Ravens matchup, it's not great on paper though. They are average for pass catching running backs. That's why I'm leaning in this direction, Dylan Samson, Joliel McLaughlin, as opposed to going with someone like Odrick Estimae, who's just not that much of a pass catcher. But you got to just keep watching for news items. It sounds like Dylan Samson could really go this week. And if Quenchon Judkins is out, Samson would be an okay play. Now Sakewan Barclay doesn't go this week, which is right now up in the air. You could look at Damien Pierce. He played every snap after Will Shipley's injury last week and they get Carolina. The Panthers are the third best matchup this season by adjusted fantasy points allowed for running backs. If Pierce sees a bell-cow workload like last week suggests, he could be good, but obviously, don't go in this direction of Sakewan Barclay plays. Keep an eye on Deandre Swift's health too. There's some speculation that he's banged up. And obviously Kyle Menunga has turf toe. So if both are out, Rochon Johnson would get a lot of work in this backfield. The problem, if Swift goes, I don't think you can play Johnson very confidently. And the first half of that game against the Packers, Johnson saw six snaps to Swift 22. The game eventually got out of hand and Rochon ended up seeing a lot of easy dump-offs. But I'm calling him out right now because if those other Bears running backs are out, clearly Rochon Johnson would be a good sleeper even in a tougher matchup. I talked about the Packers' backfield earlier. If you're very, very desperate, Pierce Strong might be able to catch some passes in this game against Dallas. But we're going to talk about, let's move on to the last running-back Corey Kiner. Ravion Henderson is out, Ramondrey Stevenson is going to see a big workload in that New England offense, more than likely. But the Patriots are also seven and a half point favorites against the Jets. New York is the ninth best matchup for running backs by adjusted points aloud, and we literally just saw New England get Kiner involved last week in a blowout. He saw more rushes than Stevenson did in last week's game in the second half. It's a pure desperation play, but I figured I'd at least call it out. At wide receiver, Casey Concepcion is likely out this week because of a concussion. Last week, Jerry Judy, Isaiah Bond and Denzel Boston, they all saw seven targets, and they each caught three of those seven targets. The deployment for these three wide receivers was not the same. Bond had an 83% slot rate. The other two were at 26% and Denzel Boston was at 3%. Bond is more of that one-to-one replacement for Casey Concepcion, and Cleveland they play out of 11 personnel at the sixth highest rate in the league. So all three of these wide receivers should be on the field, especially if there's a negative game script. Baltimore has been above average matchup this year for wide receivers when looking at adjusted fantasy points aloud, and they've also given up a top ten slot points aloud rate, as in teams are attacking the slot more than usual when they face the Ravens. That makes Bond a sleeper. If CD Lamb is out, Ryan Flanoi is a strong play. He's seen a 25% targets per out run rate when Lamb has been off the field this year. The Packers are more of a run funnel, admittedly, but I do think that you can still look Flanoi's way because the Cowboys have a 26 point and ply team total. There could be scoring in this game. Brandon Cooks led the 49ers in Routes Run after Debo Samuel got hurt on Sunday, and in our small sample, three quarters of his routes were run on the perimeter. Jacob Cowling was playing more inside out. That's why I slightly prefer Cooks as a sleeper this week versus Cowling. They get Washington, and Washington has given up the second most points to perimeter wide receivers this year. The 49ers, despite their wide receiver injuries, they sell the third highest implied team total on this week's slate. So if you're in a serious pinch, you could look at Brandon Cooks. Pat Fryer-Muth has been cooking this year. He scored a touchdown in three of five games, including a multi touchdown game last week. I wish I could just say regression is coming, but I love the match of this week. Teams have attacked the bucks with their tight ends this year. They've given up the third highest adjusted target share to the position. They've also allowed the eighth most adjusted fantasy points to the position. As I said earlier, the Steelers have the highest pass rate over expected among teams on this slate. Tampa Bay's a lot of the third highest pass rate over expected. So volume should be there in this offense. No, by the way, the Steelers are limited to wide receiver. To me, it paints a very favorable picture for Pat Fryer-Muth. Over the last two weeks with Puke and Akua back, Tyler Higby has a 71% route share. That's the 15th highest mark among all tight ends in football. We've seen about a 12% target share which isn't a big deal. amazing, but he's averaging 6 targets per game with how things have gone offensively for the Rams, in the scripts that they've seen. They may not throw the ball 50 times this week against Arizona, but they have a near 33 point and ply team total like I said earlier. Arizona ranks 4th worst and adjusted points allowed to tight ends, and they've given up the 7th highest adjusted target share to the position. So the matchup is there, the team environment generally there, Higby's not a bad dart throw streamer. And then a more volatile sleeper this week is Charlie Kohler. Hear me out. The chargers get the chiefs this week. They're 8.5 point underdogs, they're probably going to throw the ball decent bit. Kansas City is a good streaming defense this week, don't get me wrong, but they've been relatively average at pressuring quarterbacks this year. That's really important for Justin Herbert, who's seen the 4th highest pressure rate this season. The chargers are also dealing with a lot of injuries at wide receiver. If we assume most of those guys are going to be out this week, Kohler becomes really intriguing. He ran more routes than Aronde Gatson last week, and he ran more of his routes as a traditional tight end. Aronde Gatson lined up out wide on 35% of his routes run. Kohler was at 9%. And Kohler had a 19% target share. And then Kansas City, they've allowed the 4th most adjusted points of tight ends this year, and a top 10 peepier points per target rate. So I have some interest here in Charlie Kohler, but only in super deep leagues. At defense this week, I mentioned the Chiefs in the 15 Transactions show they work. The Colts might be able to get it done against the Titans, and then you could also look at San Francisco against Washington. That's it for today's show, though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you get subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are by searching for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Twitter and on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening, everyone. 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