Week 6 Predictions + JP Poll Outrage & CFB Overreactions

I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess Podcasts. The True Crime Comedy Podcasts all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Each week I bring on an amazing guest. Ooh, I scammed them. What? I could talk to you for an hour. You're a generational yapper, like me. That's why I had to make yapping a job. And now you can catch full episodes of my show on YouTube. Start listening to Scam Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. ♪ I've got this ♪ Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Cole, Hank Cash McDonald. And we're the hosts of the Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists Podcasts. The Improvised Character Comedy Podcasts were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants. And we do a little Halloween sometimes. Does the Pope dress up? Hi, he winks on Halloween. He gets right up next to the microphone. You can, I hear you get the elbows here, the eyelashes hate each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to Artists on Artists on Artists on Artists every Thursday on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody, it's me, Debbie Cimabell. This season on my podcast who's with me, I speak with Bruce Lee's daughter, Brandon Lee's sister, and my friend, Shannon Lee. Back to your initial point of stewarding my father's legacy and giving my energy to that. You're lending your life to stewarding somebody else's life. Listen to who's with me with Debbie Cimabell on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The new NFL season is here and you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. It is in the name NFL Daily. You'll have fresh content in your feed every day, all season long. That game winning drive, maybe it's Herbert, maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes, we'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of those rookies are balling out, we'll break down the tape. Join me, Greg Rosenthal, and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game. Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A lot of rumors and speculation and faceless innuendo floating around up there about the logistics of the Georgia Alabama game as it relates to weather and I just want to remind you that nothing's official until it comes from this department because unlike some people who claim to be experts on this, Jesse Humbley, I actually am an expert on this. So as of now, as of Tuesday night, October 6th, the year of our Lord 2026, jam packed high atop what was a sunny downtown Nashville, Tennessee today, as of that moment, game's still on. And if changes arise, the SEC and I will let you know, but we have a huge weekend. You know, regardless of what's happening down south, do you realize that Indiana is invading Nebraska? Do you realize that's the big noon kickoff game? Do you realize how many other big games? We got UCLA Oregon this weekend. We got a ton of big games all across the country. It's one of, let's say the top three weekends of the year and December is really what we need to be able to look back and see which ones were the biggest. The J.P. polls being slandered left and right on the Internet. Of course, not by our audience. No one here amongst our crowd that's gathered for the show would do such things, but it's cold cold world outside of the walls of paid state. And so I will address it. I will defend my honor as only I can. Overreactions, a lot of them in college football right now. I'm going to circle four of them on tonight's show that I specifically want to talk about Jesse via one of his burners. I think submitted some stuff about Matt Campbell and Penn State. And so I will react. And we've got best bets. I'm going to side with a man that very few people are siding with in college football during the Ramanoodle Express later in the show. So we're jam packed. They're watching us in St. Augustine, Florida, Phoenix, Arizona, Xenia, Ohio, super outbreak 74, and Northport, Alabama. Thank you. Jesse, I should ask you this before the show. So just shake your head. No, if the answer is no, but it will disappoint me. Do you remember when we used to put the live sub tracker up on the screen? Do we have the capability to do that right on the fly? No, you've failed me, Jesse. Okay. Well, anyway, take my word for it. We're rapidly approaching 600,000 subscribers. And so thank you to those of you who have subbed to the few of you out there who haven't just subscribed to the channel. Is that it? It's that simple. There's no form to fill out. It doesn't cost anything. It doesn't change your life in any fundamental way. It just helps us out. Bradley's got to eat. And I am told that, you know, the rations are pretty slim until we get to 600K. So we're doing it for Bradley. Don't do it for me. Let's dive into the show tonight. Man, what a show we have. Georgia, Alabama Saturday night, 630 Central, 730 Eastern time ABC. It's the game of the week. Some say it could be the game of the year, but it is presented by Jimmy John's. And as you well know, or should know by now, you head over to Jimmy johns.com. You head to the Jimmy John's app. Barbecue brisket sub press. It's right there for you. Press had some Jimmy John's on the flight home the other night. It was not the barbecue brisket though. So he is yet to try the barbecue brisket. But don't worry, we'll rectify that. There's no way to know on the weather piece of this. So I got to tell you, if you're watching this video later in the week, it is right now just after 7 p.m. Central time Tuesday night. We don't know. However, I plan on keeping you fully apprised, maybe even abreast of the situation on this very channel later in the week. But in the meantime, let's just assume this game kind of goes off as a game will normally go off. It's the, look at this number 13th matchup of these two as top 10 teams. It is currently the a fan duel. The number one and number three teams to win the SEC. It is currently the number three and number six teams. Is that to win it all or to make the playoff, Jesse? To win it all? Yeah. Okay. So pretty lofty matchup we have here. But also think about the historical piece. Eleven of the last 12 SEC championships have been won by one of these two teams. So I want to talk about Gunner Stockton. Look at that graphic. Crazy. Gunner Stockton is a really good player coming into this year. He's a really good player. A lot of quarterbacks out there that were returning starters this year that have been shells of their former selves that certainly have not lived up to whatever the increased level of productivity that was expected of them would have been in the preseason. Gunner Stockton has. So he was already good last year. But he's better this year. His completion percentage is up. His yards per attempt up. His rushing numbers are up. And he's a weapon. So obviously in the run game he's a weapon. But his brain is a weapon. But not one of those things where he's really smart and cerebral and sometimes that's coded for oh, he lacks elite physical skill. Now he's got the physical skill too. He's really good at keeping them on schedule. But as is normally the case with the game this big this time of year, you got a lot of folks out there who try and nitpick and they try and say, okay, yeah, but in this case it would be yeah, but who have they really played like have they really faced anyone. It's so dumb to talk that way about Georgia. Specifically about Georgia. It's so dumb to talk that way. It's like if you I was thinking about this earlier today, like what is the best comp? And I think it would be like taking Michael Phelps to a swim meet. But he only warms up in the shallow end for whatever reason. He just warms up in the shallow end. And then like the the the meet time approaches. And some fool says we don't even know if Phelps can swim in the deep end. I'm pretty sure he can because it's Michael Phelps. If it's some dude we've never met before, okay, this is Georgia. So they may win. They may lose Saturday. But if they lose, I don't think it's going to be because the level of competition shocked them or overwhelmed them. They could get out executed. The other team may just have better players than they do, although that's rare. But with Gunner Stockton, it's a known commodity. And unlike some of these other quarterbacks in the SEC that were quote unquote supposed to improve, but didn't he's improved versus Bama last year though. He had his lowest two passing outputs of the season. Second time around it didn't matter because they skull drug Alabama anyway. But the first time around it did matter. Georgia ran the ball effectively, but they didn't have a ton of explosive place through the air. So it's just something that interests me in this matchup because I think the most interesting defensive aspect here is how off schedule can Alabama make Georgia? Georgia's among the best in the country. Gunner Stockton's among the best in the country at keeping an offense on schedule. You don't turn on many Georgia games and see, oh, man, it's third and 11. It's third and two. You say that a lot. It's fourth and one. You say that a lot. So Georgia's run the ball successfully against Alabama, the times they faced them so far. They ran it for 227, even in a loss last year. They ran it for 141 in a win in Atlanta later in the year. So is that how this game starts to play out? Weather or not, W-E-A, weather or not. Is that how that game starts to play out? Do you start to watch it unfold and say, man, look, Alabama's got the number 10 rush defense in the country, but Georgia's fallen forward. Georgia's gaining four or five. They're going to chunks on first down. His second five is second four. It's third and two. It's third and one. Or is it one of those, man, that Bamba run defense is for real? This feels like a different game than it felt the last year, last couple of years even. 'cause then that gets you a little off schedule. Now that's not the end of the world, but if you have two offenses here, the one you probably trust off schedule more is Alabama, 'cause it's probably a more dynamic offense. You got better athletes out wide, you got a premier athlete at quarterback, with Georgia needs to stay on schedule a little bit, but if Alabama can throw them off a little bit, then number two, I really wonder, I kinda think I know, but I wonder how much of a part of their designed run game do they make Gunner Stockton? 'Cause the thing about mobility at the quarterback position is the way these offensive stats use it is selectively. Arch is the same way this will be no different than that with Gunner Stockton. I think if you look and you say, we gotta run him 12 to 15 times tonight. Well, this is the kind of game where you run him 12 to 15 times, but this is good on good, on paper. So right here, I hold it in my hand. This is Bama Run Defense. This is Georgia Ground Game. It's good on good, and the beauty of that is both of them think they take a backseat to no one in these departments. Bama thinks they've rectified their run defense. Georgia thinks they can run it on anyone. Maybe not for 220 or 250, but they don't believe anyone can shut them down on the ground. If you can, then that's crowbar in the bicycle spokes, and that's forcing a lot of big throws on third down to a group of receivers, and I'll talk about this more in a second, that have not lit the world on fire. Doesn't mean they can't, doesn't mean you can't have one individual breakout performance here. But the second part of this, when Bama's on the field offensively is, you know, Glenn Schuming gets paid a lot of money. That's the defensive coordinator at Georgia. Kirby's smart gets paid a lot of money. These are paycheck games. These are really why you get paid to the degree you get paid. You get paid to acquire talent. You get paid to develop it and year over year over year. What you wanna build is you wanna build a machine, but you wanna build one that can win many different ways. It's a Swiss army knife of sorts, and most of the tools on the knife are plus in nature. That's Georgia. And it's a specifically Georgia defensively, but if you think back last year, and you don't just have to go with Georgia, like you think back the last decade or so, every now and then, it could be Manzel, it could be Trinidad Chamberlain, it could be a dynamic quarterback that just breaks molds. They come along and you find out there's no college defense for this. Trinidad Chamberlain did this most recently against Georgia last year. Georgia sometimes does everything right and it doesn't matter. Russell's much younger and much less experienced, but he's that level of talent. But there's gonna be a lot of stuff here he has not seen before. Again, that's no guarantee that he won't handle it and won't be poised and won't be a huge weapon that you gotta react to instead of the other way around. But the pressure rate for Georgia so far this year is in the '80s, right, Jesse? That's what we saw, like Georgia pressure rate. Weirdly, their sacks are up a little bit, but their pressure rate overall. Now look, we could get Kirby on the show tonight and he could explain that away, or who knows, he may think it's a legitimate problem, but there are a lot of times where the design of your defense is not such that you're trying to annihilate the quarterback at all times, I understand all that. But broad strokes, purposes, Georgia has not gotten after the quarterback at an elite level. Now, in this kind of game, you don't envision them with reckless abandon just throwing five and six man pressures all night, maybe you do, but more than likely, what you see is you see them at least trying to contain Keel and Russell and what normally follows that in a sentence is. You try and contain him and you try and do what? You try and make him beat you with his arm because normally, when you have a superior athlete at quarterback, it comes at the expense of him not being an elite thrower of the ball. Unfortunately here, you also happen to have an elite passer who has track speed. That's kind of what makes them anomalous. That's why there's really not a college defense to defend that. I don't mean you can't beat him, but like it's something that breaks a lot of your tendencies, it breaks a lot of your rules, and it's gotta be a nightmare. I think a non-negotiable here is they gotta get to him. However, you gotta do it. You gotta get to him. Don't so much care if you get him on the ground, although that would be ideal. But what you can't do is you can't let him sit back there 'cause there have been several times this year and it's a pretty big credit to Alabama's pass pro, which was very, very less than stellar. I think we could kindly say a year ago. There have been times this year where you watch Keel and Russell and yeah, he makes these big plays down the field and Ryan Williams hauls one in, Loddy Brooks hauls one in. But those are long developing route concepts that take time to get open. And that's what he's been given is time. That's what Georgia cannot give him is time. And that's why I circle that pressure rate number in the 80s. Is that how this game plays out? Or do we see Georgia's athletes just get after it, specifically maybe on the interior of Alabama's offensive line? They've had injury at right tackle. We'll see if Javan James can go. Is that kind of an area with or without James that Georgia thinks that they can ISO on and maybe victimize Alabama a little bit, but you can't let him sit back there. You're asking to get beat by double digits if you just let him sit back there 'cause he's got the weapons to throw the ball to. The top end receivers, I think on either side, can have success against these secondaries. Bam has just got much better top end receivers, but that doesn't mean a guy can't go off for Georgia. But if Keel and Russell, you watch the first quarter and he hits a couple of throws early, finds rhythm early. In other words, if it's not the kind of game where Georgia gets Bama all disc-combobulated and confused and they gotta burn a couple of time outs early and there's some motion penalties, false start penalties. Oh man, there's six minutes to go into halftime. Bama's got three on the board. If it's not that kind of game and instead it's the kind of game where a couple of third downs early and Russell just throws darts and you realize, okay, well he's on tonight. If it's that kind of game and you got Coleman Williams out there, but Lottie Brooks has gone off. Rico Scott's having a great year. In my personal opinion, Noah Rogers is an incredibly underrated receiver for them that any given week can go off. That's a tough night. That's a trade points kind of night. You gotta feel it out early on. Obviously, Georgia prefers the kind of night where you can bottle it up a little bit. Don't have to score 35, but these Georgia Bama games sort of been like that from time to time. I think the flip side of that coin is if you look at Bama's secondary. A lot of wide receiver ones have gotten after them. Georgia's secondary, some wide receiver ones have victimized them. I got no doubt Bama's got the receivers that can do that. I really wonder about that Georgia wide receiver room. 'Cause one thing I noticed last week was that eight different pass catchers with two plus receptions against Vandy. Tail and Tailor a couple of weeks ago. In fact, he's the only receiver Georgia's had so far that's gone over 75 receiving yards in an individual game. Now, I'm gonna say this a lot on the show tonight about different games. There is a difference between half-not and cannot. Georgia has not had a receiver go off. Now, the difference here is, Georgia's also got a track record of not being elite at this position. Not having game changers this position. You can put it in all the hype videos you want to. It's the truth. Everyone knows that's the truth. Can Georgia keep Alabama's defense from compacting the field on them? You've got to show that you have explosive downfield ability here. I think Dwight Phillips actually is a big part of this, but you've got to show that you have explosive downfield ability, even if it's just hitting one or two of them. They can't develop the ability to disrespect your ability downfield. 'Cause they're good enough against the run where you get yourself in a position where if you can't really run it on them all that well and you can't stretch the field, what you've become is Alabama last year against you. Alabama last year against you couldn't really run it all that well. They had no downfield threat, so it's just ties Simpson trying to inner-mediate past game his way to a win. And unless you're insane on third down, which they were once and then they weren't a second time, then you're cooked. And the other team is not likely to sit still and wait for you to find your rhythm. 'Cause they're gonna score. So you're gonna have to score with 'em. I think from a pure spectacle standpoint, man, when those two get together, it's awesome. These are two of the best teams, just I feel that I've watched so far this year. So let's take a look at what Fandool thinks. I think it's been pretty well documented that Georgia opened as a favorite here that's slightly crossed zero. Right now, Fandool has Alabama minus one and a half. Model basically agreed. It's kind of, both of them are kind of around a pick 'em. Model thought the number was right when it first came out. Georgia minus one and a half. I think Alabama's better than Georgia right now. And they have home field advantage. So I kind of went back and forth today, but then I said, well, if I think the better teams got home field, I'm just gonna pick them to win. So I think the better team has home field. So I'm gonna pick Alabama to win. I just wanted to make sure there's a pregnant pause so I could put a period on the end of it. 'Cause certain people thought I was gonna ride the fence on this pick today, Jesse. And I don't know why. 'Cause that's certainly not me. Anyone who's watched this show knows. That's certainly not me. Look, I have no idea what weather is gonna do to this game. I don't even know who weather favors in this game. Everyone always has these theories on who weather does or doesn't favor. I can tell you more so than the rain. If I have 30 plus mile an hour wins, I don't love that for Alabama, a little bit more than Georgia. Then again, maybe it's a chance for us. Alabama to make a statement physically, who knows? I do believe the winner of this game, I'm holding a pin, but pretend this is a pencil. I do believe you can pencil the winner of this game into the playoff. With the understanding, we could erase that, but I would feel comfortable with that. It's gonna be a fun time. If we get the game off, it's gonna be a fun time. All right, we're gonna be there tentatively. Weather permitting, we're gonna be there. But earlier in the day, we're also gonna be in Nebraska. I got news from Alex last night that I need to pass on to you. So Alex runs all things merch for us. He runs the store for us. She told me, as of Tuesday, the Tuscaloosa leg of our don't tread on Saturday, two stops this Saturday. We're gonna be in Lincoln, Nebraska early for Indiana, Nebraska. We're gonna be in Tuscaloosa later that night for Georgia, Alabama. We've already sold more. Don't tread on Saturday, Tuscaloosa themed, Alabama themed t-shirts. Then we have for any stop so far this year. And I can promise you, those shirts have moved this year. So I mean, the Alabama folks mobilized and said, yeah, we're gonna go ahead and scoop those up. They're by in generators, milk, bread, don't tread on Saturday to our t-shirts, which as you were probably taught growing up, those are the four essentials for survival. You gotta have clothing, Jessie, why not a don't tread on Saturday to our t-shirt? I just ask, are our folks in Nebraska gonna step up? The Nebraska shirts were going really well as well. It's just the Alabama shirts moved a little bit better. Also, spooky Saturday line, great start as I expected. And I wasn't even gonna do this. And then Alex said, you know October, it's a pretty popular month for themed shirts. And I was like, okay, show me. And she showed me and they're really good. So there they are. All that's available at patestatematerial.com. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator and host of SCAM Goddess Podcast. The True Crime Comedy Podcast, all about robbery, fraud and those who practice it. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debris, Lamor and Morris and Nicole Byer. Ooh, I scammed them. What? And the scams run the gamut. I'm talking about scams from the 1800s, all the way up to today. I also warn you and keep you safe against scammers. Call your grandparents, tell your parents to stop clicking on links, please. If there's a scam, I'm here to protect you. And I'm also here to laugh with you. So if you like fun, if you like comedy, and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to SCAM Goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. SCAM Goddess. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana. Jeremy Colhane, Patrick McDonnell. And we're the hosts of the Artisan Artisan Artist Podcast. The improvised character comedy podcast were each week a new panel of artists discuss their craft. Join us for a panel of wellness influencers. What I try to do is foe journal. I don't know, I think I sort of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So we don't like to use that word anymore. OK. A panel of New Yorker cartoonists. Have you guys done Terry Gross's Peloton class? No, I've been dying too. I'm so sorry, I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the Thousand Paper Cranes by Audra McDonald at the Wonderland Bookstore, 14. That's crazy. I went to the Wonderland Bookstore yesterday, and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of Zero Dark 30. No way. Patrick of the last bookstore, though. Kim Catrol is reading the guitar tabs of yesterday. A panel of Eurovision participants. He winks on Halloween. It's right up next to the microphone. I hear you'll get the ovals here. The eyelashes hate each other. You've never seen Italy so quiet as when the pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists. On the I heard radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback, Matt Castle. Every Wednesday, on our podcast, lots to say with me, Bobby Bones, and Matt Castle. We also bring in friends, they're mostly Matt's friends, who are current or former NFL players. Some of the biggest names in music and entertainment, and then we have some really great conversations that can pretty much go anywhere. They're great. Pac-Man Jones. After the game, the national task force for police officers was at the stadium. Like, hey, buddy, yeah, you, Adam. Come on. And one of my favorite segments we do is called situational awareness. Where Bobby and I give each other real life situations and figure out what we'd actually do. You're in training camp and the rookie quarterback has one good throwing session in front of the media. Suddenly, everybody online says he should start over you week one. How do you handle this? You just go back out to practice the next day and wait for him to mess up. Listen to lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, I'm Mike M. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you weren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position. And matchups, you can exploit to destroy your leaguemates. You know, we're talking sleepers, breakout stars, and the guys you cannot afford to bench. From rookies on the rise, the longtime star still at it, we cover it all. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Weekly analysis, hot takes, and unique insider knowledge all in one place. Does fantasy dominance sound appealing to you? Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. We move on. We chug merely along. I don't think we'll have any weather issues in Dallas this Saturday for the Red River Shootout known by no other name on this program. I was looking at some of the old Red River Shootout logos today. What a time gone by. And then corporate canva came in and ruined it all. This game's presented by Fandall, speaking of our friends at Fandall. You know, back on May 22nd, I came on the air, and I told you, hey, hang on, we only got like four more months until kick off. And then I told you, Texas is favored by six and a half over Oklahoma, 'cause that's when the lines first came out. Now, doesn't it feel like a lot's changed since then? Doesn't it feel like Oklahoma's fallen off a cliff since then? I agree, it does feel that way. But what if I told you today, Texas is only minus eight and a half? So the net impact from the market has only been a two point difference. Now, I think there may be a slight down tick on Texas's value too. But it's gone Texas six and a half to Texas eight and a half. Back down to seven and a half, breaking news as of right now. So Jesse, that changed in the past five minutes. That means only one points difference. Do you realize that means between our meeting today and this moment, somebody bet money on Oklahoma? They're out there. I'm trying to tell you the JP polls trying to tell you they're out there. They may be idiots, but they're out there. So both of these teams are off a buy. Hey, is the total still in the upper 30s at least? 39 and a half, gross NFL preseason vibes. Oklahoma, oh my goodness, paper ripper here. Oklahoma has not scored a touchdown versus Texas in 1,095 days. October 7th, 2023. So I may have been there that day. Hashtag excuse to roll the Red River shoot out B-roll. It's a great time, everyone. I hope you get to go one day. I know I loved going. It's actually my favorite college football game. But we need a reason to go and Oklahoma kind of didn't come through for us this year. But when they do, look at this. This is in the middle of the game. This is a half time of the game. People get so tired of me telling this story. But I know there are some new viewers out there every time that have not seen that you can just exit the cotton bowl at halftime and go out to the Texas State Fair. And when yourself a little chicken head and down some funnel cake, I would imagine that shirt is the same shirt I wore to work today. I don't think that's a lie. I really think that's the exact same shirt. So anyway, appreciate it Bradley. Back to the game. What can I realistically expect from Oklahoma's offense? Because it's been abysmal. It's been terrible. Whatever the worst case was, it's been worse than that. There are the numbers. If you're listening on podcast, it's like Owen Wilson and Armageddon. OK, the worst environment of matchable. So I had to say the worst environment of matchable. 131st in rushing. 131st total giveaways. 128th in red zone touchdown percentage. By the way, Texas number one in the country in that department defensively. It gets no better. 109th on third downs. 107th in explosive plays. Just one after the other. Sledgehammer to the groin. One thing to remember. This is college football in October. By that I mean every year we get about a month into the season and someone's stats look terrible. Cause they've been terrible. And then you turn the game on on Saturday and they have this performance that totally flies in the face of what their stat profile says. And the reason that that happens sometimes is guys are 19 years old and they're in wounded animal mode and and backs against the wall, but also from a psychological standpoint, I'm going to do my best will compton here. From the psychological standpoint, you're least likely to continue doing what you've been doing when what you've been doing has given you terrible results. Now, what that could mean is you try something different and that something also doesn't work more likely than not, but there also is the chance that you just radically change your approach and it works. Sometimes it'll work for a little while and then you'll come back to earth. But see, that's where this game, again, in theory, could change. Oklahoma's been terrible. They come out and give some effort against Texas that flies in the face of what their numbers say they should be. They try some different things. It works. It clicks. John Matier doesn't turn the ball over. Maybe OU's defense gets in on the mix. Yeah, all that could happen. There's just no way I can count on it is what I'm saying. It wouldn't shock me if it happened, but I can't count on that because Texas has got the 11th scoring defense in the country. They're top five in sax per game. Now, let's just say, with a sake of argument, I feel like I'm talking about a game that has a line of three touchdowns right now, but it's crazy. It's seven and a half. Anyway, if Oklahoma can scratch out 17 points and sadly, that sounds like it's going down like a pretty monumental ask. If they can scratch out 17 offensive points, you add in some defensive production. If we're going to assume Oklahoma can do that, don't we have to also, by the same logic, assume that maybe Texas improves offensively here? Texas doesn't just sit still in this scenario. They're allowed to get better as well. Do they come in this game and that OU pass defense against Texas gets a little interesting now? Jesse, I'm trying. You see me. I'm laboring out here. I'm trying. You know, that's a lie. I was actually just trying to read my handwriting. We've arrived at another situation. Okay. So let's just try and read this together. Oh, I see. Okay. All right. Here we go. Oklahoma pass defense. It's good. It's good. Three teams outside, top 110 in passing, Georgia, 78% completion day against them. Not a ton of yards. So OU's pass defense, very good, held Georgia to three of 12 on third down. This is the first time they're facing elite weaponry at wide receiver. Now that may not mean anything because like Texas's passing game is under achieved this year relative to expectation, but I just wonder does Texas feel the need to attack here? How have they self scouted themselves during this by week? Do they think they're under achieving on that side? Or do they look at themselves and say, this is just the identity of our offense? This is the identity of our team, rather. We're a defensive oriented team. It'd be kind of weird to spend all the money in the portal on those offensive weapons and not use them, but who knows? I mean, you got to do what it takes to win the games early turn over here. Maybe inefficiency from Texas. Maybe they go into a shell. And at that point, there's a lot of variance because at that point, you're talking about one possession swing in the game, either way, this is it for Oklahoma. Like this is it. If they lose this game, forget about just being out of the playoff picture, like, yeah, they're probably out of the playoff picture, certainly they're out of the playoff picture, but they've still got half the season to play. And at that point, it's a different conversation. To me, like I just said, Texas is a defensive team. defensive teams until proven otherwise, get themselves in a lot of close games. That's okay. If you can walk the tightrope, that's okay, but it does mean you got to walk a tightrope. So the fan dual number right now, as I said, is Texas minus seven and a half, let's correct that on the paper here, Texas minus seven and a half, the model disagrees. The model thinks this number is a solid three points off. It thinks Texas should be minus ten and a half. What that means is we got to roll with Texas to win and cover. Jesse wanted to just go under on the total, right? You think it's dangerous to lay over a touchdown in a game that I just described. If it's accurate as being very, very tight one possession, I also think 20 to seven could be the final and they like 23 to 10 could be the final. And good on owe you for scoring ten points, but still I'm going to take my odds here. I'm going to take Texas. I'm going to lay the points. There's no way, if Oklahoma wins this game, it's obviously caused things happen that haven't been happening so far this year. And if that happens, great, but I'm not going to base my expectations on this game on blindly just expecting new stuff to happen. We could drive there in a ram though. That's a fact. There are roads between Nashville and Dallas. We could drive there in a ram. There he goes. Boom. Nothing stops college football. Hopefully, nothing stops college football. I don't know, man. Forecast, notwithstanding, but I could promise you, nothing stops a ram. The real tailgate MVP, Jesse, what's what we need to do? We need to go to games. You know what? I'm going to hold off because I think I may give our sales team an idea here that I don't know if I have time to follow through on. There are rams all over every tailgate scene. That's what I'm saying. There you go. Absolutely. And gestures, not associated with the brand being given in the control room. But no matter what route you're running, ram will not drop the ball. And they've been on board with us all this season. They're backed. You're backed, rather, if you're in a ram, by the longest coverage in the game, 10 years, 100,000 mile powertrain limited warranty. Look, as you know, because of the literal poster that's behind me right there, I'm a twister guy, Bill drove a ram in twister. I've been a ram dude since 1995, and I was a child. But I was still already on board with ram, and you should be too. We appreciate them for being on board with us. Hi, this is Kylie Breakman, Angel Jaretana, Jeremy Colhane, Cash MacDonald. And we're the hosts of the artists on artists on artists podcast. What I try to do is foe journal, I don't know, I think I sort of foe journaling. Yeah, it's reading. It's called reading. So you're so we don't like to use that word anymore. Okay. No. I've been dying too. I'm so sorry. I'm seeing a reading of Sadako in the thousand paper cranes by Audrey McDonald's at the Wonderland bookstore. 14. Wonderland bookstore. Yesterday and I heard Nora Jones do a reading of zero dark 30. No way. We'll have to come to the last bookstore though. He, he winks on Halloween. You can, I hear you can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen Italy so quiet as when the Pope gets up to wink on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on the I heard radio app Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator and host of scam goddess podcasts. Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debrae, Lamorne Morris and Nicole Byer. Ooh. I scammed them. What? You're a generational yapper. Like me. You have to make yapping a job. So if you like fun, if you like comedy and you like learning and protecting yourself from criminals, start listening to scam goddess on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday on our podcast, lots to say with me, Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. We also bring in friends and mostly match friends who are current or former NFL players. Some of the biggest names in music and entertainment and then we have some really great conversations that can pretty much go anywhere. It's really great. Pac-Man Jones. After the game, the whole national task force for police officers was at the stadium. Like, hey, buddy, yeah, you, Adam, come on. And one of my favorite segments we do is called situational awareness where Bobby and I give each other real life situations and figure out what we'd actually do. Suddenly everybody online says he should start over a week one. Just go back out to practice the next day and wait for him to mess up. Listen to lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the I Heart Radio app Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, I'm Mike M and I'm Trevor Sikama and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. In the last three episodes, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. The best starts and sits across. us every position and matchups you can exploit to destroy your leaguemates. From rookies on the rise to longtime star still at it, we cover it all. Whether you're a first time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Listen to the NFL fantasy football show on the iHAR radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Let's move on also a nice, healthy gathering in the live chat. Do me a favor, this little button right here, thumbs up, do me a favor and click it. All five or six thousand of you, go ahead and click it. That means you build our self-esteem, that's what that means, it's a like. So thank you for that. Subscribe to the channel if you haven't already, because that is equally as easy, and it helps us and it does nothing to you. You know what's probably a good idea, Jesse? Never mind. I lost my chat stick again. Can I have some of yours? No, okay, thank you, Jesse. I got everything. I got Mio. I got a compact out here. It's not even 840 beige. And I don't have my chat stick. Anyway, we got to fight through it. JP polls here, unfortunately, for most of the free thinking world, or are you a free thinker? I don't know if you are. If you've submitted some of the things that I'm about to show you, so the JP poll, again, for some of you who are new every single week, it's a very innocent exercise in us taking our model here. Everyone's got rankings. That's all well and good. Let's look at it from a little different angle on Tuesday. We like to ask the model, based on current output, who would be favored against who on a neutral field if they played Saturday? Kind of a vagus approach to rating teams. Important distinction. These are not fan dual numbers. These are our numbers. Occasionally, when you call us to task, we will ask fan dual what they think. I'm about to show you an example of that in a second. But this is just model output, okay? A lot of people have a huge problem with it because they don't understand it. Case in point, wake forest is still behind Louisville. Hayden, respectfully enough, said, "Wake beat them at Louisville, but they wouldn't be favored on a neutral field. That is correct." I hit up fan dual and they confirmed Louisville minus one versus wake forest if they play to day on a neutral field. What does that mean? Well, it means that if they play in wake wins, they should get full credit for the win. Both in rankings and in playoff consideration and in conference standings, every merit-based compartment where outcomes on the field, wins and losses matter, they should get credit. Power ratings world is not really all that concerned about that. The outcomes matter, but they just get baked in a little bit differently. And every team that's won a game would not be favored against the team that they beat the next week. That's not the way it works. So, well, why would you even do it, Josh? Why even play the games to determine a winner? I'm just paraphrasing a lot of the feedback I get. Anytime I explain this, well, if that's still be favored, why do you play the game to determine a winner? So the winner gets credit. Well, if you're not going to favor the winner, then how does the winner get credit in the standings? That's where they get the credit. In the rankings, in the playoff rankings, that's where they get the credit. This is not that. It's not that difficult. It's not controversial, actually. As you can clearly see, Fandool ended up backing me up on this. There is a fair amount of Oklahoma outrage because Oklahoma is at 19. I kind of agree with this. I think the model's insane. How the heck is Oklahoma favorite on a neutral fielding its Mississippi state? Get Fandool Mike in here immediately. Now unfortunately, we call Fandool Mike. When did he answer about 30 seconds before the show went on there? Thank you, Mike. He actually confirmed Oklahoma would be a two and a half point favoriting its Mississippi state today. So according to Fandool, the model's right on this. The JP poll's right on this. I just got to tell you, I think we're too high on Oklahoma. I think the model is too high on Oklahoma. So I don't even agree with this thing all the time. I think our model's out to lunch on Oklahoma, maybe out to lunch with Oklahoma. I don't like it. I think the too high. I think the talent profile is inflating Oklahoma a little bit. Same way it was doing with South Carolina. I think the talent profile was inflating them. But if it's gone wrong, like if the team has a little smells weird, well, it's gone bad. So it doesn't really matter what ingredients are in there. It's kind of gone bad. Oklahoma may have just gone bad. And if I'm right about that, then everybody who's bashing Oklahoma's power rating here is right. So I'm with you guys, but what do you want me to do? It's the model. It's not me. It's the model. So we rail against the model. But yeah, oh, you would be favoriting its Mississippi state today on a neutral field. Baylor is at 18. Checker, checker, champ. Hit us and said, Baylor at 18 jumps out to me. I thought the next team up in the big 12 would be Oklahoma state. What would the line be for that game according to the model? Actually, I should have looked that up, but I didn't. I'm sorry about that. Jesse, you can look that up. Yeah. Well, you do that. But I did not think I would see Baylor in this poll again the rest of this year. And they lost to Auburn in week one, and I thought that that would be a sign of things to come. And instead, DJ Lagway, former number one preseason SEC quarterback is, well, at least for one week, balling out. We're holding up seven fingers, and I don't know what that means. What does it mean? Who would be favored over who? Baylor minus seven against Oklahoma state. You're serious. No. The model's not serious. That's an unserious line. Can you imagine what would happen? If we put out, excuse me, a fan dual put out, Oklahoma state plus seven is Baylor, can you imagine what would happen? I know what would happen with me, I'd borrow money. I would be borrow money from you. Yeah. So you know what? You may be right. Baylor may be a little high, or Oklahoma state may be really low. Texas Tech, though, is at 17. And some people are saying I am slowly becoming the biggest Texas Tech hater on the internet. And it's a sad look. No, it's not. It's just reality. Do you think Der Wake and a cactus emoji? Do you think he's watched Texas Tech this year? Like is anybody out there who has actually watched all four quarters of all Texas Tech games, really coming at us saying Texas Tech, man, they got to be higher than 17 or wherever they are. No, they don't. We've dropped them five points. They're not a great team right now. They may be the best team in the big 12, currently, Brigham Young holds that title. In fact, the models got Texas Tech third in the big 12 and right ahead of Baylor, and I just said, I think Oklahoma state's way too low. No, it's not Texas Tech hate. It's Texas Tech acknowledgement. It's just watching them play right now. That doesn't mean they can't get better. But this is a reflection of where they are right now, pretty much. And I'm not wrong. And Fandwell has confirmed that. Like we're not wrong on that. Next up, I'm wondering about Tennessee. There's no tweet for this, Jesse. I'm just kind of thinking out loud. Tennessee's at 12 still. I don't, maybe, maybe that's right. I think it's a little high. But then again, if you start asking, you can't just be doing that. Like I get mad at people when they do that. So I can't do it either. You can't just say that team's high without looking behind them and saying, okay, well, here's who I think would be favored over them. And I kind of get what the model may be seeing. There may be a little bit of drop off there between Tennessee. And then the group you get into after that is Brigham Young, Missouri, Utah, Nebraska, Texas. Now, I'm going to tell you something. I saw a fair amount of people thinking Missouri is all of a sudden low because Missouri blew Florida out in Missouri is at 14. It is going to take more than one of those results for a predictive model like this to have Missouri vaulting up into the top 10. It could happen in the first couple of weeks of the year. It's not going to happen this deep into the season. It's built that way for a reason. Did you have one where someone was asking about the spread between the number one and number 17? Yeah. Nicholas said, what's the point spread difference between number one and number seven? So that's Ohio State and Miami. Ohio State's one Miami seven. There's some injuries baked into that Miami rating, by the way. Ohio State would be minus five and a half against Miami according to the model. And it will be pretty close on that. But I think I always love looking at 14 points. If I took Ohio State and then I said, where is 14 points worth of difference between them and whoever it is? We got to go to number 19, which is Oklahoma, before we get a 14 point gap. And that's again, that's way more compacted than it used to be. But you want to talk about compacting number 11 here is Florida, the gap between them and the number 46 team in the country is 10 points. So I know we haven't had by AP poll standards a ton of huge upsets. for this year. So a couple of articles this week about how there's not a there's like a lack of parody. I think that may be a little more anomalous than anything else. I would imagine the second half of the season will more than fulfill your lack of upsets because you can't have a field that compacted and not have a bunch of quote-unquote upsets coming. They're watching us in Melbourne, slash Melbourne, Australia, Chapel Hill, Texas, Bloomington, Indiana. We will see the Hoosiers this Saturday in person. You know what? Speak of the devil. Indiana at Nebraska. This Saturday, 11 a.m. local kickoff in Lincoln. This game's presented by Quick Trip. It will fuel us all away there because yes, ladies and gentlemen, we will be there. We will be there Friday afternoon from two to three Eastern, one to two Central for busing and paint on campus, show up and show out. I think we're going to have a massive crowd at Nebraska this Friday, by the way. And then Saturday we'll be right there on the sideline with the rest of you holding our red balloons, getting ready to release them. Hopefully a little bit sooner than last year. We went to the Michigan game and it took a while, Perez. I mean, we held on to those balloons for a long time. It's like a happy birthday balloon in Walmart that just kind of starts descending from the roof because no one's no one's taking at home. So Nebraska earmuffs, earmuffs kids. Nebraska's 0 and 9 versus ranked opponents under Matt rule. Now we're to go it up. But it's been bad. Indiana has not trailed yet this year on the plus side for Nebraska. You're at home and they're on the road for a second consecutive week. Hashtag dynamics in Nebraska's favor. What is one of Mima's golden rules? One of Mima's golden rules was have not does not equal cannot. And that has to be true here. It has to be true because people think Nebraska sucks because Nebraska hasn't been able to do this and hasn't been able to do that. But really when it comes down to it, people think Nebraska sucks because Nebraska hadn't been able to win big games. So what you have to do is change the way people think. And to do that, you've got to win games like this. And to win games, you've got to play differently. So you'll know quickly where the Nebraska's on the road to changing how people think by watching their run game. There's 17th in rush yards per game. Best run defense faced. Number 77, number 136, number 78, number 66. So this is a classic paper versus reality situation because this Nebraska team on paper can run the ball a lot better than they could last year. They're about to go up against the number four run defense in the country. Honestly, it may be the best run defense in the country. But statistically it's number four. You'll find out early on. And then also you'll find out if quarterback runs going to be heavily involved because that's one of the big differences here. Anthony Kalandry is 174 yards and two big 10 games on the ground. So he's a factor. So it's not purely a traditional ground game. Speaking of that, I'm going to do something here. It's an exercise that I think a lot of American needs right now. It's called proper context. You may have seen a graphic floating around. I had our team build one from Matt rules saying this quote. This is a quote from Matt rule this week. They did it with Tim Tebow at Florida. They did it with Cam Newton at Auburn. We have Anthony. Kalandry. Jesse, did he just compare Anthony Kalandry at a Tim Tebow in Cam Newton? He has two of cause there's a quote at it here. There's a graphic that makes me think he did. Well, I have the unfortunate task of informing you that here at Pate State, we believe in full context and not just baselessly buying into what we scroll past on our social feeds. So we did the responsible thing. We went and sourced the origin of that quote and we dared to clip it in its full context and lo and behold, it may just change your mind. Roll it, Bradley. We look at Anthony as part of the run game. And so like, just people defend our quarterback. It opens up the passing game. I mean, quarterback draw with an RPO zone reads. We're going to do all of that, right? Like they did it with Tim Tebow. They did it with Cam Newton. We have Anthony. We certainly don't want him to get hurt, but we gotta let him play. And so we see that as part of the run game. Upon further review, Matt Rool did not compare Anthony Kalandry at a Cam Newton or Tim Tebow at all. He merely used those as famous examples of quarterbacks that have to be plus in the run game. Have I essentially nailed the long and short of that? It pays to find out the full context of quotes as it turns out. I'm, of course, speaking about nothing specific to happen this week. So we'll also know by watching the flip side of this. You know, this game, you can tell whether Nebraska's being able to run the ball, but Nebraska's run defense last year was 100. This year it's 30th. But is there something else there? Yes, there is. The best ground games they face so far. 89th, 137th, 113th. And they faced a G 16 that's 41st. But the P4 run games they faced have been 89th or worse. Meanwhile, Indiana, out of the 14 FBS players with 500 plus rushing yards this year has two of them. So again, paper says one thing. Your eyeballs may tell you a different thing. The problem is also, Josh Hoover, big turnover questions there, right? Preseason. Oh, big risk. Very inconsistent that Josh Hoover 15 touchdowns, no interceptions. Again, they haven't faced much of anyone, although Northwestern is turning out to be someone. But Indiana, there only one score game, which was the Northwestern game. That was the game where his most a pass attempts came. This could be that kind of year where as it goes on and it goes on, you realize the more pass attempts Hoover makes the more vulnerable Indiana is. It's kind of too soon to say that, but it could be that. So we have, once again, another have not does an adequate cannot situation. Nebraska, I will tell you one thing they cannot do. They can't be penalized like they were last week. They had 16 penalties last week. They're 119th so far. Indiana is second in the country. They got to win in the margins and they can't lose anything, any category like that. They need something early too. I'm not saying Indiana can't play from behind. They may very well be able to, I don't trust Nebraska to, but they got to make Josh Hoover work. They just got to make him labor. And if he just out executes you and he really plays at the kind of level for an animal Mendoza did last year, okay, don't let him have an average day and let him off the hook because you couldn't get out of your own way. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. I think you'll be shot. Fandall has Indiana minus seven and a half. The model thinks that numbers way too big. It only has Indiana minus four and a half. I think Nebraska is going to make a game out of this. So I will take them plus seven and a half. But I think Indiana is going to find a way to win. Just like they did against Northwestern, I think they'll win a close game and that may become a little bit of a trend. Maybe Indiana makes a run again to the postseason, but unlike last year where they just go scorched Earth most of the time. Maybe there's some closer games this year. Maybe they're just back to Earth a little bit. I do think they'll find a way, but I do think this is a one possession game and I'll take Nebraska plus the points. Now you want to talk about tension. Deep breath, Jesse. Oh, by the way, while the sound bite was playing, I lost it again. No, I found it. I found my chapstick. It's a massive chapstick. It's great, though. You can't be too careful this time of year. Last thing you want, Jesse's chap lips can't have the actually last thing you want to get housed by Northwestern. But the next worst thing is to have without a mind. USC at Penn State, wide out. You're going to sell this out, Jesse. Stayed in going to be full. I hope so. This game is presented by Factor. Jesse had a factor meal about two hours ago because someone didn't deliver his food. But it was good, right? It was really good. Yeah. I would ask what you had, but I can't even hear you. Factor has been a very, very fun partner to have on the show. Penn State. Two losses already before the wide out game. Has that ever happened before? Yes, it has. 2016. Does anyone want to know what happened next? Number two Ohio State comes to town. And they beat him. And then Jesse got pepper sprayed by a cop. It's one of the great stories in the history of college football. Deservedly so. Deservedly so. Lincoln Riley is three and eight when traveling two plus time zones. That's one factor here. Why am I sitting like this? And another factor is Danton Lynn. Not the best of weeks for his defense last week. But we got a lot of familiarity here. He did come here from USC. So if anyone's watched a ton of Jayden Mayov and had gone against him is Danton Lynn. Now you still got to have the players to do something about it. And that's a whole nother hill to climb. But Penn State's defense has to do something. And by do something, I mean, holding the stick in my hand and poking a dead body and saying do something. They got to do something. They got run over last week. And USC has plenty good enough run game to where they could do that. Cause Northwestern was not exactly lighting the world on fire running the ball coming into that game last week. So Penn State's given up 206. 66 on the ground so far in Big Ten Play, just an average number there, heavily skewed by last week. I don't expect a miracle, guys. I just expect better than last week. And maybe it's just choosing to live or die in the red zone. Maybe you realize between the 20s, we're going to give up yards against anyone. Air could move the ball on us for 3.3 yards per carry. But when we get down in the red zone, that's where we can make the thing tight. Jayden Mayov in the past has been turnover prone. Maybe we think that's still there. Maybe we think we can win the game despite being outgained by like 115, 130 yards maybe. But that's where this has to flip in the red zone. USC's offense is 64th in red zone touchdown percentage. Problem being Penn State's defense is a hundred and third. Well, what are we talking about earlier? College football games in October. Things are weird. They're not always playing out exactly as they look on paper. So what Penn State just has to do, this sounds very simple. It's not is just invert that stat category. They have to, they have to hang their hat on something defensively. I don't know that they're going to fortify their run defense, but they could fortify their red zone defense. They could potentially do that. Difference here is, Penn State has no offensive identity. I don't know what Penn State's team identity is right now. Not too late to find it, but I don't know what it is right now. USC does know what their offensive identity is. They've they've had 110 plus rush yards in every big 10 day game. They've played so far, including the Rutgers game last time they traveled this far. Can they go on the road and control a game like that Rutgers game, they never pulled away. Can they go on the road? I don't care what Penn State looked like last week. That just means they'll play inspired ball this week for all I know. Can they go control a game? Does that just has not been their MO under Lincoln Riley? If they can, it's an indication that they're very, very much alive and that they're very, very much maybe even a rapidly improving unit, but we are one week removed. I just want to remind everyone before you start thinking about USC pulling away in this game, we are one week removed from Washington leading those dudes 21 to 10 in the Coliseum in the third quarter. So this is far from a perfect team as well. The difference is you think they're upside. I think they're upside a lot higher than Penn State. My office so far this year, 15 touchdowns, three picks. It gets tough because he avoids sacks. He's only been sacked five times so far this year. Penn State does not have much of a pass rush at all from what we've been able to see. But as much as it's my of a moment, I mean, this has got to be a Rocco back to moment. I mean, that guy's got several years of starting under his belt. He's just got to be better. And if it means shoulder in a little bit more the load, he's got to do it. Didn't happen last week. Didn't happen for any of them in any facet last week. He's just got to do it. USC can be had through the air. You got to take advantage of it. And if it's just one or two cap busters, so be it. That's enough. That's more than what you had last week. Take a look at what the model thinks. Vandals got Penn State minus one and a half. Model has Penn State minus three and a half. People recall on Sunday night, who was favored Jesse, USC was favored, right? There's USC minus one and a half. Some one somewhere out there believed in Penn State enough to bet them and have that number cross zero. And you know who it was? It was me. It's my favorite bed of the week. Don't shake your head. Believe. You need to believe. Did you believe in 2016? You believed enough to go to the game. Do you believe Yolabito, Ohio State that night? Do you believe pepper spray works? Do you believe all of these things? You believed in Rutgers earlier this year? Why can't you believe in Penn State? Penn State's going to win this game outright. Don't ask me how? I just previewed this thing, rambled in coherently for eight and a half minutes. I don't know how. But I know that's an awesome environment. And I'm hoping. And I'm going to say this respectfully. Trust me. I understand how tough it's been to watch this year so far. I really hope that our folks at Penn State show up and show out for this. This is a spectacle. Okay. You are the main event Saturday. You got to create the environment. Team cannot do it on its own. You got to help them out. I've been there before. I've seen what this place is like in Whiteout conditions. You got to show USC. Penn State. Minus one and a half. You believe, Jesse? I'm not telling you what he said. No, I'm not doing that. We got some overreactions happening right now in college football. On Tuesday, I like to ask, what are some things that you just think the college football world is overreacting to? And one of you submitted something. I'm glad you did because I don't really have much of a reason or time to touch on this otherwise. World's greatest lover hits us up, potential song title idea, and said everything about conference superiority and bias. That's an overreaction. He may be right. And really what you're talking about there so far this year is a lot of folks are back on the SEC train. And I think the SEC's looked like the best league in the country so far. But I was walking around yesterday. I was on the phone with someone and I was talking to myself through this knowing it would eventually come up. I'm not ready to go there yet because the SEC does not have benefit of the doubt for me yet. I mean, what is the conversation really boiling down to anyway? It's boiling down to the big 10 over the last few years. This had more championship caliber teams than the SEC. Well, I can't know if that's changed in October. I got to wait till the stretch run. I haven't even seen Indiana flex yet. I don't know if Oregon's going to hit their stride or not. I don't know how much better Ohio State's going to be conversely. What if BAM is peaking right now? What if Georgia's just going to be really good but not great? What if Texas never gets its act together? Very, very quickly. This thing could look different in November than it does right now. So I'll grant you if we were starting to play off right now, I'd like the SEC's odds. But we're not. It's a long season. So I actually agree with that. I think it's a little bit of an overreaction. I think some people in the South are so starved to reclaim the pole position that you got to be careful not to jump to gun on this and I'm not going to be one of them. Next up, I kind of disagree with the next one. Someone said one of the biggest overreactions in college football right now is people thinking Miami's running away with the ACC race. As much as I said, pumped the brakes on overreacting to conference superiority, I don't mind this. Until you show me someone who's going to be semi-competitive with that team, I think Miami's running away with the ACC race. The odds to win this league right now are utterly insane. If you're listening on pod, Miami is a minus 425 favorite to win this league. That means Miami is overwhelmingly favorite against the rest of the conference to kind of a wild statistic to having the odds market for a P4 league in early October. But that's the way it is. Your next closest challengers on the odds board are not Florida state or Clemson or Louisville. It's SMU, Wake, Duke, Virginia Tech, and Pitt. You know as well as I do, none of those teams are beating Miami. Most of Mark and even get a shot, but one of them will get a shot and they're not beat Miami. Miami's winning the ACC this year at the very least they're running away with it. So I don't think it's an overreaction at all to say that unless someone out there knows something I don't and Miami's banged up. Like Miami's been bitten badly by injury. I'll take Miami at 80% over the field in that league. Next up, we call it the Clemson conundrum. Wilson said that this is an overreaction, this chain reaction, LSU beats Clemson, therefore LSU is elite. Ole Miss beats LSU, therefore Ole Miss is elite. But then Florida beats Ole Miss, so Florida must be elite, but then Missouri beats Florida. So Missouri must be really good. He said all of our opinions on these teams have been predicated on the incorrect preseason assumption that Clemson was even a decent team. And I got to tell you, I read this and I lean back in my chair. You ever develop a world view and then someone just drops a sentence and then walks out of the room and it leaves you speechless. Has Davos Swenney really just poison-pilled the entire barrel? Has Davos Swenney single-handedly forced us to incorrectly view LSU Ole Miss, Florida and Missouri? Then away has Davos Swenney sabotaged the perception of a chunk of the SEC. Wilson says yes, and I don't think it's totally true, but I can't prove that it's not true. So I'm going to have to just sit with this for a little while. Jesse Bookmarked that, you can't because it's a graphic, but still, we need to keep that on file. We need to keep that one on file. Now, fortunately for the SEC, so far, Texas, Georgia, Alabama are not looped into this death spiral, so it could be true and the SEC still have some teams that are okay. And then lastly, since no one else in this office is going to do it, I'll do it. Mark Penn State's sufferer said Matt Campbell in over his head, that's an overreaction. Well, of course, it's an overreaction. After five games into his tenure, yes, it's an overreaction. And for that matter, they're saying the same thing about goal is shit Auburn, and that's also an overreaction. Matt Campbell's a really good football coach. Matt Campbell doesn't. not have a really good football team right now and it's on their plate like it's up to them to acquire the talent and it's up to Penn State at large to invest in them being able to acquire the talent. That's the way any big college football machine works these days. And if they're not going to be able to do that, they won't win there. I could have told you that before they hired him. I could think the world of Matt Campbell, but if you tell me, yeah, he's not going to have good players. I don't think he's going to win. So my belief in him at Penn State is predicated on them having good players. Just doesn't look like they have it right now. I think a lot also can be said about how long that hiring process took and how much you handcuffed yourself. And look, the Penn State folks are pretty smart about this. I interact with a lot of you guys. I see Jesse and Logan and all those guys talking about it. The perception is pretty spot on. Like I think the fan base has a really, really good grip on this. So it's not the fan base or at least it's not, you know, like the nucleus of the fan base freaking out about this. A lot of outsiders are. A lot of outsiders are laughing at this and saying, oh, man, you swung and missed on that hire. No, they didn't. It's not like the guy forgot how to coach. But what he does know about coaching is, I got to have good players at least good enough players. I can't go out and execute everyone. Now the flip side of that is Penn State should always be able to beat Northwestern. And you should always be able to hold Northwestern under 200 yards rushing and you didn't even hold them under what 400, right? It was over 400 yards rushing. That's a fundamental issue. That's got to get rectified. All I'm saying is it wouldn't be the first time if Matt Campbell goes on to succeed there. That year one looked really ugly. Nick Sabons didn't look all that great at Alabama. He turned out okay. Kirby nearly lost to Nichols State in year one at Georgia, played for a national championship the next year. Yeah. I think it'll be alright. I think that's a little bit of an overreaction. $5,435. Do I have your attention? That's how much 92 of you won last week because you went to fan duel, like I said, and you played the free F-R-E-E Pickham contest. Again, free. Don't have to pay a dime. Don't even have to have a dime in your account to play this game. Every Wednesday, and it's also available Thursday and Friday, up until kickoff, you can go to fan duel and you can find the weekly pickham contest. Myself, Will Compton, Taylor LaWan, we put in our 10 picks, and whoever does better than us gets profit boost tokens. But whoever does the best period, and it turns out that just means you probably need to go 10 out of 10. Because every week we've had a bunch of people go 10 out of 10. If you're going 10 out of 10, for instance, last week, out of over 200,000 entries, 92 of you went 10 out of 10. Fan duel is giving away $500,000 per week in prizes and bonus bets, okay? So when 92 of you went 10 for 10 last week, every single one of you, all 92, got $5,435 dropped in your account in bonus bets. There's no, there's no small print here. That's just it. That's the way it works. That's two times higher than any amount previously given out. So you want some upsets during the week where like it greatly narrows down how many folks go 10 out of 10, but folks are just winning tons of money over the every week and it's free to play. Must be 21 plus in present in select states for Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino, or 18 plus in present in DC. First online real money wager only, $5 first deposit required. This issue does non withdrawal bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt, restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandual.com, gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit fandual.com/rg. Call 1-888-789777, or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-32750-50 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. Speaking of which, let's get out of here with this, Ramanoodle Express, I'm on Penn State plus one and a half, I'm on Buffalo plus 19 and a half, I'm going to do something tonight, Jesse, that very, very few people would do above and beyond betting Penn State right now. I'm also going to bet Dan Mullin, Dan Mullin and UNLV are plus three and a half at New Mexico, or North Dakota State, rather, not New Mexico State, North Dakota State. Believe it or not, model thinks the wrong team's favorite. I'm conflicted here because there's a big game coming up, North Dakota State's traveling in New Mexico, and I want that game to be pristine. However, I cannot ignore what the model is saying, and the model likes UNLV plus three and a half, it actually likes them and went out right, so we're adding UNLV plus three and a half. There you go. Do me a favor if you're watching the show live, click the thumbs up button. Please like the video, like the show, and subscribe to the channel, and five of your friends are welcome to do that as well, because the quicker we get to 600,000 subs, the quicker I can find out whatever surprise that Jesse has planned for whom we get to 600K, could be a cake, could be what, you're going to eat gold teeth? What are you doing? Why are you smiling? I don't know. Maybe, Penn State goes on a little run as a celebration for 600K? And they do that? We'll ask. We'll hit them up during the by-week. Appreciate you guys so much. All right, look, oh, by the way, before we go, I don't know what the weather situation is going to be this Saturday, but I'm utterly fascinated by it. And as you know, I'm a storm chaser during the spring. Scratch that. I'm a storm chaser year round. We just do it during the spring. So I have a lot of friends in meteorology. I have a lot of meteorologists who are friends. And so I'm going to hit some of them up. And we may, and by that, I mean we are, going to put up some forecasting content for the Georgia Alabama game on the channel. In fact, I'm going to go record some right now, and it may be uploaded like within an hour and a half. Bradley, did we get the thumbnail made yet? We're close to getting the thumbnail made. Bradley is efforting the thumbnail. So I'm going to keep you dialed in, because I know a lot of you are watching the forecasting, and it's just generic forecasting. And really all you want is you want someone to drill down specifically on that game and let you know how the weather is going to impact that game. I'm tired of waiting for other people to do it. So we're going to do it anyway. Thank you for watching the show. We'll be back Thursday night until then for director Bradley, play in sick, play in hurt for producer Jesse. I'm Josh Bate. Take care. Have a great rest of your evening. And God bless. [Music] Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas, Starkicino, or 18 plus and present in DC. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. [Music] Hi. It's Kylie breakman, Angel Jaretana, and we're the hosts of the artists on artist on artists on artist podcast. You can almost hear the eyelashes hit each other. You never seen it least so quiet as when the Pope gets up to ring on Halloween. Listen to artists on artists on artists on artists every Thursday on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The true crime comedy podcast all about robbery, fraud, and those who practice it. Ooh, I scam them. What? Like me. Start listening to scam goddess on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The new NFL season is here. And you should be listening to NFL Daily as we march along to Super Bowl 61. Like game-winning drive, maybe it's her, but maybe it's Gino, maybe it's my homes. We'll have the highlights. If Fernando Mendoza or any of the rookies are ballin' out, we'll break down the tape, join me. Greg Rosenthal and an all-star cast of co-hosts as we preview and recap every game, listen to NFL Daily on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everybody. It's me, Debbie Cimabell. 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