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Speaker 2Guaranteed human. How do you turn 16 games, injury reports, team notes, betting lines, and matchup trends into one clear weekend preview? Chat GPT work can help. Give it the goal, plus real inputs like notes, files, data, and project plans. It can help turn them into an analysis tracker, deck outline, or workflow you can keep shaping. You stay in control, reviewing the work, and choosing the final result. Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at chatgpt.com by selecting work mode. Available on plus and pro plans. Welcome to NFL Daily, where we're like a great cornerback. We have a next play mentality. It's the week six pick show. It's me, Greg Rosenthal. It's Nick Shook coming off a rough day. Week five. I would have had a winning week if Harrison Mevis didn't have that kick block. It happened, and Shook had another rough week. We're going to look forward, and we're going to look at a landscape that has changed in the NFL since we taped our preview show, specifically for the Philadelphia Eagles. We do have some Lamar Jackson news at the back end of the show. We're going to hit the Jalen Hurts injury news. I'm tempted to pick that game after the injury news. We'll see which side we're going to be on. I'm going to pick the Jalen Hurts injury news. We'll talk about that, but let's just get into the pick, Shook. It's that time of year where if you're struggling, it's plenty of time to turn things around. What will be your first pick against the spread this week? Get us going.
Speaker 3Yeah, I didn't even look at how I did last week because I just wanted to move on from it. I'm going to go with a team that I cannot pin down, but I feel better than the team that they're facing, and this team that I feel better about happens to be a home dog, and that is the New York Giants, plus one and a half against the New Orleans. Saints. I think if you would have caught me last week, the week prior, basically any week before this week, I would have said, no way am I going to do that. In fact, I would probably lean Saints, but what I've seen from the Saints in the last few weeks is steady decline, and I know Gail Benson came out this week and really put the pressure on the entire organization to play better and perform better, and they responded accordingly, at least in the media. I'm going to need to see it proven to me, whereas the Giants, they're a team that is flawed for sure, but they also enjoyed some excellent quarterback play from Jameis Winston, showed some metal in coming back from a two-touchdown deficit last week, and yes, they emerged with a tie that felt more like a win, but I think in this setup against the Saints, they'll be in a better situation. I think that they'll be able to win this game straight up, so the fact that they're not the favorite makes me more confident
Speaker 2about this. Yeah, I was surprised to see that line. The advanced numbers for the Saints are awful. DVOA, they're 28, they're 30, they're right at the bottom of the league. The Giants aren't much They're in the low 20s in those categories. This was one of the four games I wrote down. I was debating what's going to be my third game, so I am totally with you on this. The Saints have just looked like the worst team in the league. Now, when you look at these numbers, I mean, maybe not the worst team, but the last two weeks. I'm just saying the last two weeks specifically, just the Falcons game and the Vikings, they've been pretty close to the worst, and the thing that bothers me about them in this matchup is the lack of physicality. The Giants aren't a great running team, but they want to run the ball, and I think this is one team they can push around, and then on the other side of the ball, I don't see the Saints as really like a physical defense to go get after what's been a pretty good pass-protecting unit for the Giants, so either side of the ball, I kind of like the physicality. I was thinking also about the Saints pass protection against Tyler Shuck. This has been a heavy blitz team the last couple weeks for the Giants. I don't know if Tyler Shuck and the Saints have answers for the Giants. I think you're going to get this one right, Shuck.
Speaker 3Yeah, it's one of those games where I know that the Giants, I know that the Saints will not win the physical battle up front, and this Giants team, while they are limited in terms of talent and ceiling, they are already becoming a John Harbaugh team, which is a team that wins at the physicality battle, not to mention the fact that they got ran through by Bajon Robinson and Brian Robinson a couple of weeks ago. It just feels like one of those contests in which they'll have every reason to fight really hard, given that their owner just put the pressure on them, but I don't think they just have the ability to do so at this point, and offensively, I don't know what I'll get from the Giants, but I do know that they'll do well enough on both sides of the football, I think, to emerge from this game. I just feel better about them right now than I do the Saints. The Saints, it's a bad operation right now.
Speaker 2It really is. I am going to take the Chicago Bears minus one and a half in Atlanta as my first pick here. I went down in flames with them a week ago. I do believe in buying the dip. You know, if this game was last week, the line would have been different. It might have been over three, and it's a concerning performance by the Bears. I do think good teams, I think this is a good team, respond to their worst games. Generally in the NFL, like, people have an idea of, like, this is how good a team is, but no matter how good they are, they have, like, their up weeks and their down weeks, and some teams have more variance than others, but there's, like, a median of, like, roughly where they're at. And I think last week was an extreme performance by the Bears that is not going to be repeated. Extremely bad. Obviously, you get Caleb Williams back. That's a major part of this, but I am also including the offensive line and running game, which really wasn't bad against Green Bay, stepping up against Atlanta. And then I look at the matchup last week, Declan Doyle versus Falcons defense, and the Ravens with a backup quarterback made them look normal, like, look like he was taking it to them. Declan Doyle, Ben Johnson worked together last year. To me, very similar offenses. The Chicago Bears run it at a higher level, certainly with Caleb Williams, than the Ravens do with Snoop Huntley. And I think Ben Johnson's going to be able to look at that tape and kind of see where they, being the Ravens, expose some of the personnel deficiencies in terms of this Falcons defense and put some points on them. I think the Falcons are a good team. Michael Penix is back. If you're giving me even a 10% chance that he doesn't make it through this game because of the rib injury, that helps my case here, that Tua Tungavailoa could possibly be involved. I'm not that down on the Falcons, but I think it's like a four-point Bears win, and they get it done on the road.
Speaker 3If Michael Penix was out, I would stay away from this game entirely, because that's how much their offense changes when Tua's in there. Granted, the sample size we got in there, I don't think it's going to be as good as the Falcons, but I think it's going to was extremely small, because it was an end-of-regulation scenario and a brief overtime outing before Tua threw a pick to end the game. What I wonder about this matchup is, what can we trust more as something that wasn't an anomaly? Is it the fact that the Bears' secondary got torched by the Packers' passing game? Because I think the Falcons have the same potential to do that with their offense. Or is it the fact that their offense couldn't hold up and protect their quarterback and really generate anything? I think that's less reliable. I think that was more of an outlier. You get Caleb Williams back, I think you'll be better on that side of the ball. So then the question becomes, can that Falcons defense do what they've done prior to the second half of last week's game, which is play better than I think a lot of us expected? And Caleb Williams is the, I don't know if he's the equalizer, but he's the X factor in this, in that his mobility, how good is it, by the way, coming off the hamstring injury? Is it near 100%? Is it closer to 50%? I'm thinking they play this thing
Speaker 2safe. But can
Speaker 3his mobility make a difference? Because if it can, then it neutralizes that Falcons defense. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't pass rush and something that defense has to carry a lot more and then the bears look like the better
Speaker 2choice here yeah i i like it too because of the penix factor i do think they'll come up with a defensive plan to get penix to move off his spot he was not moving well like he does the great things the hard things well um but his movement ability right now their ability to sustain drives with shorter passing is not there to me and i think dennis it was only there for like there was a period in the second half where it was there until it wasn't that was it yeah i i think he can like run straight ahead i think his movement skills are right now near the bottom of the league that's it i look i i believe in the falcons somewhat i just don't think they're at the bears playoff caliber level let's go to your second pick i think that's
Speaker 3actually gonna be a great test of where exactly these two teams stand more the falcons and the bears uh my second pick this is a uh i know i i'm front running here i'm going chalk it's chiefs minus eight and a half versus the chargers i have no faith in the chargers it's as simple as that i believe the chiefs are one of the best teams in the league i think they're going to be the best teams in the best teams in the nfl they're coming off of a bye week we know how andy reed is coming out of bye weeks i there is just one of the easiest choices right now now you you could look at it and say well the chargers are desperate for a win they've been desperate for a win since week three and they've been playing hard shook
Speaker 2like they that's great and they haven't given up they were ahead of the bills they yeah played hard what did they do in those
Speaker 3games they found ways to lose both of those games and what team is going to make them pay for finding ways to lose the kansas city chiefs minus eight and a half is not too big for me i'm going with the chiefs
Speaker 2yeah i agree with you there that would have been on my long list for what i'm getting at there which is the chargers are playing without joe alt very likely this week we know roshan slater so it could be four rookies again on the offensive line it's a joke who's hurt for this team i mean dante jackson at cornerback and derwin james are still hurt and yet they're showing up and they're battling each week and last week if if you took the broncos you sweated that entire game because those two teams totally even it's a division matchup and so is this one the chargers played the chiefs well last year and you're thinking man this team actually has some fight but they're losers right now they just have a losing mentality they will find a way in the end not only to blow the win but to blow the cover although they did push against Seattle with that that late one but they basically haven't covered all season and they pushed that one in Seattle so I'm totally with you on that one here's where I'm getting a little crazy and look we we need to rebuild confidence with some picks here shook um with the way we've been picking games and you can't you can't play scared and that's why I'm going Titans plus six and a half uh in Indianapolis I would have loved it on Wednesday when we taped our preview show and it was plus seven now it's down to plus six and a half because apparently people are on my side don't love that for me because that's a big half point I am not living in a world where this Colts team should be favored by close to a touchdown against anyone the Tennessee Titans employ 53 men uh on their active roster shook you know how many of them are professional football players all 53 all 53 the coaching staff they've they've been coaching in other places they're professionals um I just don't think the Colts of 2026 who to me are a bottom eight team in the NFL should be favored by this much against anyone and then I just am going back to the Colts and I'm going to go to the Colts and I'm going to go back to what I just said before of buying the dip taking the team after they were at their very worst the Titans have actually been pretty competitive on a week-to-week basis every year if you watch the games and last week they weren't and I generally expect teams to respond after their worst effort I could see them winning this game it just would not shock me I you know wouldn't expect it if you're just telling me straight up but with with the odds I would like it either way I just think it's a division game will end up being close and uh I'm going to be sweating out some cam ward on Sunday let's go this
Speaker 3is going to be this is going to be so rough for you because I looked at this and I was immediately like I'm staying away from that because I don't trust the Colts at all and it's also a division matchup and division matchups get weird they just do especially in the AFC South it's a new coaching staff so that made
Speaker 2me feel a little less okay I guess it's the first time they've played but these are veteran now yeah
Speaker 3exactly exactly and it this this division I think gets weirder than most uh which is why I was like it's a team that I don't have a lot of faith in it's funny you said they're a bottom eight team in the NFL I just checked my power rankings from this week I had him at 24 so like that's right right there it's the defense the
Speaker 2defense can wake up my guy cam it's the
Speaker 3it's the defense is going to give him opportunities that Houston obviously was not going to give him last week because they were all over him the Colts aren't going to do that and then I look at them offensively and Daniel Jones actually made some nice throws last week none of his guys caught him Tyler Warren dropped him Josh Downs was in double coverage half the time we know that they're limited at receiver they don't run block or pass block very well so Jonathan Taylor can't really get going I think that leaves room for this to be a closer game which then favors you being a Titans guy with them you know being the underdogs here I just was like this is a gross matchup I don't feel strongly in either direction I just know it's
Speaker 2going to be gross staying away I just like like shivered hearing the words you being a Titans guy but um but I feel good about this this actually was the worst team in football these were one of the two picks these two picks were my top two that I just looked at and I'm like yeah this these are my picks uh let's go with your last one all right
Speaker 3it's time to get gross I'm gonna get gross too um I was caught between three here and they're all different scenarios um one is a scenario and that's most realistic which is going to be my pick the other one is is this team actually capable of doing what I think they can do are they going to be the Jekyll and Hyde team they've been all season that's the Steelers and the third is uh I was looking at uh do I like a division rivalry which is Jets plus seven and a half at Patriots I'm not going there because I think the Patriots heater is legit and I think they're going to continue to build on it even seven and
Speaker 2a half's a lot but I I if I took my emotion out of there hot I I would maybe lean there it's going to be hard to stay that hot actually I actually think I would take Jets I'm but either way I'm staying far away from that the Bucks are a good the good team the Jalen Daniels thing it looks like it's going to be him starting at quarterback makes me hesitant but I almost would lean Bucks there as a home underdog I've been riding the Steelers but I'm staying away from that as well what is your third pick you did so my third pick
Speaker 3is the craziest of them all by some accounts it's Cowboys plus one and a half at Packers okay because this is a team that has every reason on the planet to be pissed off after the way they played last week they have offensive kinks to work out we know their defense is not going to do the job but in these last five matchups the winner has needed 31 or more points to win the Packers and the Cowboys including the 40 to 40 overtime game last year right so we're going to get a lot of points and if there's going to be a lot of points scored I'm going to lean toward the Cowboys side as being the more capable offense despite what we saw from the Packers last week and if that's the case we're going to get another narrow finish and with the Cowboys being the underdog feeling like they might be able to
Speaker 2do it yeah I would lean Cowboys as well so we're on the same side here it wasn't one of my top picks because I feel like I know who they are and they are gonna play better offense generally than they did last game against Tampa they have the extra rest I don't think Green Bay defensively even though they've been creative and their safeties are good are gonna give Dak Prescott as many problems as the Bucks will and I just feel like I know who that team is whereas the Packers it was an incredible performance that kind of came out of nowhere it's a new offensive line um there's just more variables in a way these teams have some similarities running games not as good as you want um and obviously the Packers defense is better overall but uh I I trust in the Cowboys in a shootout like you do so we're on the same side all right I think there's been a lot of
Speaker 3anomalies in these games in the last few weeks especially like that Packers Bears game I'm not taking anything away from the Packers at all I think that it was refreshing to see them finally find some success downfield but the this the circumstance is that the Packers are going to be a little bit better than the Packers and they're going to be a little bit better than the Packers and they're going to be a little bit better than the Packers and they're going to be a little bit better than the Packers and they're going to be a little bit better than the Packers and they're going to be a little bit better than the success downfield but the this the circumstance in which they were playing against Tyson Bajan and case came yesterday they forced Ben Johnson to bench Bajan with their opportunistic defense yes but like that's not a good measuring stick and I just think that in what has been in this especially week-to-week League this year uh it's going to be tough for me to trust the Packers on a consistent basis until they prove it
Speaker 2yes and uh it's really about the offense there they they at least showed the hope if you're a Packers fan or Packers backer they at least showed the hope if you're a Packers fan or Packers backer they This week that the offense is now ready to, you know, keep pace in a shootout. Okay. The injury news I wanted to get to. Number one, there was a lot of optimism coming from quote unquote Ravens sources to the national insiders that Lamar Jackson had a good chance to return this week against the Browns. That was back on Sunday, Monday into the week. He has not practiced as of this taping. And even though his coach, Jesse Minter, has said he does not need to practice necessarily to play. I saw the athletic writer point out, like, I think we know where this is going. You don't practice. You don't play. The second situation that I've seen this year, and I've thought it's unfortunate that Lamar Jackson is not under contract, you know, past this year, really. It technically is. But, you know, he's waiting for a new contract along with Puka Nakua, where you hate for that to creep into your mind. But, you know, Lamar Jackson is going to wait until he's 100%. Wait, you mean like
Speaker 3the self-preservation part of it? Like protect your earning power type of thing?
Speaker 2Yeah. Well, just like if you're going to be, you shouldn't be pushing through injuries, especially if you don't have that long-term security. I think there. There is a push and pull there. And who knows? Lamar Jackson's injury statuses over the years have often been mysterious. So it sounds like it'll be a backup there. In Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is suddenly out for this week. A shocking bit of news, especially when you get to the specifics, which ends in Ian Rappaport going on air and saying that he is out indefinitely with a blood clot issue. that it could be some time. I want to get into the game pick of it all because I'm tempted to make this my third pick. But let's just hit the news of it all. A superficial blood clot was revealed during evaluation last Saturday in London, but medical staff doctors said that Jalen could safely play. You saw him play. I thought he had one of his better games of the year overall, considering everything that was working against him. A subsequent follow-up exam on Wednesday, and I believe this is after he fully practiced, so he was still out there practicing, showed that he had been cleated in the game against the Rams way back on October 5th. He got all this treatment in London. He was practicing this week. An ultrasound occurs in London. They follow up with another ultrasound on Wednesday, and they say there's movement in the blood clot. Now they are determining the appropriate course of action. And out of, quote, an abundance of caution, he is going to be out for this game. week i think just because of where the eagles season is at and because he played last week after the injury had already occurred and they had done some testing there will be some conspiracy theorists wondering about everything i think the eagles know that and so they tried to put out as detailed a statement as possible it is curious that he played in that game and then he practiced but we're gonna have to trust them that well this follow-up ultrasound you know revealed more and that it's no longer safe for him to play and not think about the fact that again that their season is in in a bad way right now i think
Speaker 3that the statement i mean it gives you a timeline that helps you understand exactly why they were saying that you know movement was good for him in his current state and i think the biggest risk was the flight there and the flight back um and i think that's the biggest risk for him and i think that's the biggest risk for him um but it also makes sense why he they're now you know sitting him down and it just adds another challenge to this team that has already encountered so many challenges uh so many hurdles so many bits of adversity whether it's your right tackle who's gonna be in the hall of fame retiring in the middle of the season um you know you're starting center he had to move to guard getting traded away uh the number of other injuries elsewhere not having your top receiver not having your top running back who's a star in saquon barkley um not getting anything out of the ball to be an under 500 team by the end of this year even if they still have a good amount of talent on the defensive side um without jalen hurts it's going to be that much harder uh tanner mckee is a guy who is a pre-season hero who did not look good in the last time he was in the regular season and i think it brings an offense that already had an incredibly low ceiling down even further which just makes the challenge that much greater for them so it's a real bummer in what is becoming a nightmarish season for the eagles and yet greg likes them in his pick well
Speaker 2the line initially moved to one and a half and everyone bet it up to three and a half you know everyone took the panther side and one you know once i see that three and a half i i think about this eagles defense and you're right about tanner mckee there was a a point where i would have been really optimistic about how he plays in a regular season opportunity because he did it a couple years ago against the cowboys last year did not go so well disaster two pre-seasons really did not go so well he did not win the job to andy doll and i asked our friend beau wolf who covers the team on the day-to-day basis optimism level and he's like yeah it's not nearly as high as it would have been previously and especially because of the offensive line that he's going to play behind probably without saquon barkley and davante smith and they've got a number of injuries it's going to be tough but they were favored with jalen hurts and is is that a sick a six-point swing jalen hurts just getting down to brass tacks when i look at these two teams i still think the best unit in this game and it could be by a lot is the eagles defense can the eagles defense keep them in this game and get after bryce young uh dominate up front it's a tricky situation with that home crowd because it could feel like a disadvantage pretty quickly if things aren't going well as colleen wolf said even in the in london this was a very ornery eagles crowd that's a little sick of this team that worries me a little bit but i'm uh i'm just a dreamer shook and uh i can see my guy tanner mckee out there yeah trying to drive for a game-winning touchdown down 14 11 uh down the stretch and maybe he gets it maybe he doesn't but you know what they cover either way if it's a three and
Speaker 3a half points and this is a pick show so it's fine about the cover but i'm sorry that's just great disrespect to the panthers and what they've achieved so far this season i'm just gonna say it it's just that's just what it is people are not giving proper due to the panthers so far maybe i'm a little bit higher on them than everybody else that's fine i don't think we've paid enough attention to the fact that bryce young is off to a great start say for his one bad day in cleveland yeah and i don't think it's going to be that close uh even if the defense like you said can find a way to keep it in range and so that's why i stayed very far away from
Speaker 2that in fact i was like hey how can we possibly disrespect the the team that gave up 59 points uh that was week one and lost the deshaun watson i'm just saying there's only a four-week resume two other teams and like two of the weeks aren't that crazy i'm just being a jerk uh it's funny because i was leaning giants but i just figured as my third pick we could go in together part of me thinks it's bad juju i'm going over to paris i i agree with you i think the giants are going to win that game um but man i don't want to be on firing watch uh when we're interviewing the saints over in paris so uh i'm gonna i'm gonna go ahead and just be bold and go titans and panthers as uh as my picks there in addition to the chicago bears you have the kansas city chiefs minus eight and a half you have the new york giants uh as home underdogs and then your third pick remind me again was the dallas cowboys plus one and a
Speaker 3half in green bay
Speaker 2let's go okay um this is it this is the week we turn it around and and if not um you know we're still going to paris we're gonna have some fun next week uh shooky i will see you on sunday night that is when we get together once again in the studio that is not going to be the next show in your feed though we have a special bonus episode this week jordan rodrigue with a great conversation with the former walter mayton man of the year charles tillman the originator of the peanut punch talking about defensive strategy and current players and defense it'll be great that's on set see you someone once said everybody's got a plan
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