Week 6 College Football Previews & Predictions: Georgia-Alabama, Texas-Oklahoma, UCLA-Oregon & MORE!
1h 6m 37s
The Cover 3 podcast offers in-depth analysis of key college football matchups, focusing on Georgia vs. Alabama, Oregon vs. UCLA, and Oklahoma vs. Texas. In the Georgia-Alabama game, the core narrative centers on the defensive battle between Alabama’s elite pass rush and Georgia’s mobile quarterback Keelan Russell, with Georgia’s offensive line and quarterback decision-making being critical. The podcast highlights how Georgia’s lack of adversity in previous games may make them vulnerable when facing Alabama’s pressure tactics. The matchup between Gunner Stockton and Alabama’s defense is deemed more intriguing than Russell’s, as Stockton’s short, accurate passes and Georgia’s inability to push the ball downfield create opportunities for Alabama to force third-and-long situations. Weather is seen as a decisive variable, potentially favoring Alabama’s mobile offense. In the Oregon-UCLA clash, Oregon’s defensive strength and ability to control the line of scrimmage are expected to dominate, especially against UCLA’s high-powered rushing attack, though UCLA’s turnover margin gives them a potential upset edge. The Oklahoma-Texas game is viewed as a defensive and field-position battle, with Texas aiming to avoid giving Oklahoma short fields and Oklahoma’s quarterback John Matier struggling due to inconsistency and poor execution. The podcast concludes that all three matchups are tightly contested, with defensive performance, quarterback composure, and game conditions playing decisive roles. The total points for the games are projected to drop to around 38.5, reflecting the defensive nature of the contests. Overall, the analysis emphasizes that success in these games hinges on discipline, execution under pressure, and the ability to avoid negative leverage situations.
Welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fernelli, Danny Kennell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover 3 podcast. And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast, here on CBS Sports, that's Tom Fernelli, that's Danny Kennell, that's Bud Elliott, Chip Patterson coming to you live, youtube.com/Cover3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on the man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat, aka the Cover 3 tailgate where they are riffing and roaring and debating what's going to make the big game break down, well, you're not going to make you wait any longer, so taft. Jumping right into it with an absolutely massive game, every single time that we get Georgia and Alabama together, it is putting two of the, the great powers of this sport. And now it is also putting two of the top teams in the country. This is a battle that is going to give us a hint at the SEC Championship race teams that are competing for the national title, truly among the best of the best with what we've seen through the first month of the season. Now they clash against each other, Alabama going to be the home team in this one, DK, as you started to peel this one apart, let me start with Keelan Russell against Georgia's defense. How do you think we are going to see Kirby smart and the dog's defense to what level can they or what are the keys to trying to stop or limit what this Alabama offense can do with their star quarterback? Um, they, Keelan's been really good, but he has been a little bit loose with the football at times. Um, I think that's what they're going to try to do, try to create some turnovers. I think if you had to choose one or the other, you would say beat us from the pocket. He's been really good from the pocket. It's just, he is special and he's getting a lot of attention for good reason. He's been playing really, really well. I think it will be Kirby smart, one of the best defensive in the minds, one of the best defensive minds. Can he pressure him? Can he confuse him? Can he force him to some turnovers? Um, that to me is one of the biggest matchups to watch for. I, I think I'm right there with you like to me, I think you have to understand Keelan's going to get his on certain place, right? And he's probably going to frustratingly for Georgia fans convert a certain number of like, you know, third and 10, third and 12 type stuff. I just think you have to manufacture as many of those as possible. And like Bama, like four states, D line sucks, right? Mississippi State's D line is, is nothing special. Like, you know, South Carolina has steward and a bunch of Jags this year, right? So like, we kind of like went into the season with a lot of questions about Alabama's offensive line. And we're six weeks into the season. But they really haven't been tested by anybody who has like multiple future pro prospects on that D line. Georgia has a bunch like they look really, really good. So I, I think, I'll do it for Georgia. It's hey, like we can cover these guys a heck of a lot better than anybody else has covered them. And can we create a lot of negative situations? I understand and Keelan's going to get his, can we not like lose composure when he does Dottas for 35 on third and 12 one? We just need to create a lot of those third and longs. And like that's kind of going to be, be the test, I think is, you know, can you create those negatives on first downs that give Keelan the chance to, you know, actually like create, you know, like create his own turnovers, because I think there's some of that in him still. Obviously he's also got a ton of play making ability. What's interesting to me about this is like, if you look at who Georgia has played, obviously they have not faced anything as dangerous unoffence is what they're going to face here in this game with Keelan Russell. It will be interesting to see what kind of pressure they could put on him. Like we've seen so far this year, like last year, they did not get much of a pass rush at all, but they are improved this year, like their pressure rate on defense ranks 15th overall. Their sack rate is not great. It's only 50th, but they are getting the pressure. It's just they're not quite getting home. But I think part of what you want to do with Russell is you want to put pressure on it, but you also kind of want to keep him in the pocket as much as possible and make him beat you from there. Even though he's shown the ability that he can do it with your defense, you'd like to think that you have the guys on the back end that can at least slow down Alabama's passing attack compared to the team's Alabama has faced so far. It's kind of like that, you know, damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. You don't want to get after him too much because if you open up the rushing lanes, he's not a run first quarterback, but when you give him the opportunity to run, he'll go and he'll rip off chunk plays on you and he'll kill you because of it. You have to figure out what you want to do there. There was a game two years ago where Kaelin DeBore came out with Jalen Milro, started running them all over the place. Kirby said at the halftime interview, we weren't really prepared for that. Do Kaelin DeBore and Ryan Grubb? I mean, you can't say that there is nothing on tape about Kaelin Russell beating you with his legs. But I'm just saying like in that idea of past the chalk is Kaelin Russell a difference maker who we could see a true coaching win where do you trust Kaelin DeBore and Ryan Grubb to be able to maybe get a little leg up the same way they did with Milro two years ago. Yes. Okay. It's Kaelin DeBore in a big game. I've fully come out, I expect him to come out and have some really special stuff for Georgia. But it work. Can they block it up consistently enough? Can they have, can they still make Georgia on a down-to-down basis to allow their specials to hit? But yeah, I think Kaelin, Ryan Grubb will have something for them for sure. Yeah. I don't think it'll be let's run him a lot though. Like I think that Jalen Milro is much more built physically to handle that kind of thing against Georgia than Kaelin is at this point. Like I'm not having a designed run after designed run with Russell here. Yeah. Also like Georgia's backers with Colin Wilson are just completely different species than anything that Bama has faced so far. Like those guys are sure fire NFL dudes and they are freaks. Yeah, and that's not just your different size and put you in the ground, but also their reaction speed and the fact they're not going to get juked out, faked out or out of position in the same way. Do you, I think it's interesting that you asked about that aspect because I might be more curious about the other aspect, Gunner Stockton versus Alabama's defense. Oh yeah. Tom's got some thoughts too. Yeah. I know it's crazy, but like I feel like I believe in Alabama's offense and their ability to put up points, even though Georgia's number one in scoring and all of a sudden are lighting up the scoreboard and they're putting up big offensive numbers. That to me is the matchup that I'm more interested to see because I think Alabama's defense is not getting enough discussion because Kaelin Russell has been so good. They're playing with that'sness, they're playing with an edge, they're seeking turnovers. I think that to me and Gunner Stockton's on the roads can be tougher to hear. Like I think that's the more intriguing matchup because I don't know if I'm buying into Georgia's explosive offensive numbers. Yeah. Like, here's some stats for you. Okay. Taft, I sent you some charts. Get the big one ready to go. I'm going to put them up. Taft, I ain't going to put any of this. No, he has to. If you, you know, we'll fire his ass right here, Mitch Shill. We'll treat him like the Colorado defense. It's Tyson Summers. That's right. We'll Tyson Summers is asked. Gunner on the season has attempted only 30 passes of more than 10 air yards. And I mean, that's low. He's 13 to 30 on those passes with two touchdowns and an interception. So like when you look at his numbers overall, he ranks fourth nationally in EPA for drop-back. But when you go to those, you know, throws them more than 10 yards, he's 82nd. His completion rate ranks 102nd. And as you can see on the chart, they're like, remember when Bud showed us the Austin Simmons chart last week, compare that one to what you're seeing here, boys. Like you are seeing a whole lot of, I'm just going to throw from to my left. I'm going to throw it on my right and I'm not really going down field. And as we've seen, when he has gone down field, there's a lot of yellow. That's incomplete passes. Now, here's where it gets really fun to have to if you could throw up the touchdown chart. Of his 13 touchdown passes, he's averaging 8.1 air yards with 13.9 yards after the catch. So most of his touchdown passes are guys running after catching short passes there. He is not pushing the ball down the field. Now maybe this is something they're going to unleash this week because they haven't really had to. Right? Maybe, maybe like we were talking about what Kaelin DeBoer was doing with Kaelin. That's what they're planning to do in this game. Give Alabama something they haven't seen. But from what we saw in the Oklahoma game, like, you know what Oklahoma did? They took away the short stuff. They stopped the run, got them off schedule, got them into long situations where Gunner had to drop back. He couldn't just throw a bubble screens. 11 of the 30 passes he's thrown this season of 11 air yards and more came in that Oklahoma game. It was his worst performance of the season by miles. It was Georgia's worst offensive performance of the season by miles. They scored 41 points in the game, but remember, they forced four turnovers and had those defensive scores that really kind of, you know, changed what that game looked like. If Alabama can do that, like, it's going to be a much more difficult task than anything in Georgia's done. Now, I don't think Alabama's defense is as good as Oklahoma's. To me, they're more good than great and they've been better against the past than the run. But if they could figure out a way to minimize what Georgia's passing game is able to do with all the short little throws, if they can tackle and put them in situations where they're in third and long and they have to push the ball vertically to move it. Georgia has not shown the ability to do it very effectively.
far this season. And then you add to the fact that this game is in Tuscaloosa, they have the ability to put Georgia in adverse situations that it is not used to being in because Georgia is one of three teams this year who has not trailed for a second. We don't know what they look like when they're facing actual adversity. They might get it for the first time this week. Yeah, and I think specifically with Georgia, with that young offensive line, like they have really not been challenged at all with the exception of Oklahoma. And I think pretty early on in that OU game, they did some good things and they also looked rough at times and then they had enough lead and they're like, okay, we're getting bad material, which is kind of turning into normal material on a week to week basis, unfortunately, for Oklahoma. So they really have not had to have a sustained game with real challenges. I think Stockton's like a good quarterback. Veteran, I think he's cut down on some of the mistakes this year. That was the thing the past couple of years, people are like, oh, like, you know, game manager, all this stuff. He's still takes some kind of crazy risks sometimes. He's not quite as safe. He's a little more risky than you think he is. I think he's cut down on some of that this year. I think he really, like, knowing where to go with the ball has been really good. Part of the gap, Georgia's getting is because he's on time and accurate with those balls and putting in a spot where you can really do catch and run with it. We haven't really seen him have to play with a lot of pressure, though. And I do wonder, like, Bama, but I think the best secondary they will have played so far, can Bama trust their receiver or sorry, their DBs to clamp Georgia's receiver? So I guess we'll see. Do you think that Georgia can play some keep away, put Alabama's defense in a little bit of a phone booth and lean on them? Is that something that can be effective as a way to both neutralize Keelan Russell and also try to avoid those those third and long potential turnover worthy situations because, you know, let's let's play the same, you know, who have you played so far, like which what what team that Alabama's defense has been against? I mean, they played a lot of teams that the volatility, the create the turnovers, you'll send the pass rush. I mean, they they haven't played a team that has tried to just get down in manball them. I mean, I guess you could. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, this would be the biggest the biggest manball challenge for the Todd defense so far, right? Yeah, but Alabama has also played four power four teams. Like I mean, they've played three SEC opponents. They played Florida State. They're not they're coming into this game with a much better idea physically of what they're up against than I think Georgia has seen so far at this point. Yeah, the offense is yeah, like the offenses that Bama's played are much better than the defense's Bama's played. I think like Mississippi State's offense is way better Mississippi State's defense. Yeah, correct. I would take Kentucky's offense over Kentucky's defense. Yes. I would definitely take up as she's offense over its defense. South Carolina. Maybe not. So what decides the game? Negative lever situations like like who is not stuck against the chains and like to basically like staying out of the situations where turnovers are most likely. Kickers. I would say no. What do you say? Kickers. Kickers. Kickers decide the game. It's an Alabama Georgia game. Of course, kickers are going to decide again. Yeah. We ran out of games. I think it does come down to the QBs. You know, which one and I know managing the game is a good thing and it kind comes back to what Bud said. Like if you are in a negatively leveraged situation, do you make the big mistake or do you just eat it and put it and live till the next time? I think that's probably where Gunner you would trust him a little bit more. Keelan is a younger quarterback could be susceptible to hey, I have to make a play this time. I have to do it. He could make that mistake. You know, him run around the football, could cough one up. You know, I do think it'll come down to that. Also, it is worth pointing out, Karan pointed out in the chat. We've seen the total for this game drop from where it was posted originally. Weather could be a pretty big factor in this game too. Weather might be what it ultimately decides who wins this game. Interesting. I would favor Georgia, right? You think so? I don't know. I was just fitting it out there just because I think they have a better run game. You know, I've got a weird theory that like defending a mobile quarterback on a wet field to the pan in the ass. Yeah. Yeah. All of the sudden, we just always told us, hey, you know where your body's going so you can kind of set your balance a little bit better than if you have to react, that's when you slip. All of a sudden, Alabama takes on the wing tee with like Daniel Hill and EJ Crowell and Keelan Russell and now all of a sudden, all of college football takes on this new approach, this new approach that is all the way back from the beginning of the game. Yeah. I think that there's a style, styles make fights element. There's a number that Alabama can comfortably get to that would stress Georgia a little bit. Very fascinated to see if there's a first mover advantage in the past, the chalk battle. If Kaelin DeBoards got something, you know, we talked about maybe Georgia's been holding it up big, big opening sequences as usual when these two clash against each other. Then this game will be in prime time, Bryant any stadium, but before that big time heads to Austin Stadium, Eugene Oregon as the ducks welcome in the unbeaten and surging UCL A Bruins. We've had a couple conversations with Niko Imaliava. We've had a couple conversations. We have had eight conversations with Bob Chesney, Bob Chesney and Dan Laning. They had their experience in the college football playoff last year, James Madison, of course, going out to Austin Stadium. The relationship between these two, you know, there's a lot of respect. The gesture of Bob Chesney reaching out to Dan Laning, asking if there was anything that they could do, if he could go check on Dante at the hospital like that. There seem to be a lot of admiration, a lot of mutual respect between these two coaches. We could see them battling for Big Ten supremacy for a long time to come as they both are still young stars in this industry. Speaking of Dante Moore, no word on whether he would be back, but he's back with the team and that is awesome. Just like flat line, that is awesome. If you think that you were judging your analysis of this game on Dante Moore being back or being out, I don't feel comfortable making that. I'm not a doctor, but we still have an idea of what these teams want to do. Tom, can Oregon's defense slow down and UCLA rushing attack and a UCLA offense that against opponents not named Oregon has done a very good job of getting downhill, being aggressive and scoring some points. Is this a moment for this veteran duck's defense to stand up and really show what they can do? I mean, they can. The thing about the UCLA offense is it's very one handed and those offenses typically are much easier to stop. It's not difficult to figure out what the path to success is here for Oregon. On offense, UCLA, the nation's best rushing attack, their first and success rate, their first in EPA per rush by a lot and their fifth and explosive play rate. When it comes to passing, they're 96th in EPA per dropback, although they do hit big plays, they're 12th and explosive passing rates. They hit shots, but you don't really want them dropping back multiple times. They'll take shots, but they don't really want to use the passing game now. On the other side, Oregon, 80th on defense in EPA per rush allowed, but their 38th and success rate. If you look at what they do, they're not really being disruptive in the run game. They're not getting in the backfield and ending plays before, you know, for losses, but they're doing a pretty damn good job of not letting other teams break off big runs. Are they going to be able to kind of ham in this UCLA rushing attack to where they put the Bruins in spots on third down where, you know what, they've got to drop back and throw it because that is not where they are at their best. That is not where they want to be. So, yeah, can Oregon do it? It sure can, but it has also shown an ability in some games this year to not be able to do it. Like the defense has been, like early in the year, the defense didn't look good. It has looked better as of late. I don't know if it looks to the spot where we would have had the confidence in it when the season began, but if they're able to slow down this rushing attack on Saturday, I think we can all kind of just start, you know, maybe calming our fears about the ducks. Yeah, I think Oregon rolls them and I'm very high on UCLA this year. I have their over for the season win total. If you look at this, though, right? Like UCLA is one of the nation's leaders in turnover margin. Oregon does not really turn the ball over much. Okay. I think Oregon is just due to catch the football. They actually lead the nation in value lost in terms of like offensive drive value to drops. And UCLA really has not been good at standing drives. Like they hit a lot of, a lot of it's supposed to play as to Tom's point. They've also not played a decent front so far. And I think that's a major change here. You know, like Oregon, you could say their defense has been disappointing. And it is even Oregon's disappointing defense is miles better than any defense that UCLA has faced so far. And I do. San Diego State bro, come on. San Diego State give a 500 yards to Texas state. Like I'm saying miles better. But winning with the most. Yeah. Okay. Now, I know Cory Park has been massively disappointing. Like they got like probably serious buyers remorse on him to this point in the season because he has been kind of bad and like a real downgrade from Dylan Thineman. But I just think this lines up. If Oregon catches the ball, like a little bit and Oregon's front can control the run game. Some and make UCLA go on sustained drives. Like nobody's really put put usillian situations where they had to face those negative lever situations
the run game is controlled a little bit. I kind of think Oregon asserts himself here and wins by three scores. I'd be nice to see if somebody picked Oregon to win the national championship. I do think this is one of those. All right, what are you really made of? There's been a lot of excuses, first few games, moving parts. Whatever excuse, new defensive coordinator, new offensive coordinator, I just, I would like to see Oregon in this position and pose their will. And probably the biggest question, even though they're playing with a backup quarterback, I think the biggest question for me is the defense. Like, are they going to be able to dominate? They did not do it against Boise State. Now, Maddox, Madsen played great. There was a great game plan. He had a lot of passes that were great throws. I love the play action game plan that they had for him. So I think that puts a little bit of pressure on Nico to try to do the same. I don't know if I trust him there, but I think Nico's legs are an issue along with the run game, trying to stop Wayne Knight and the running back by committee behind him. But I would, I would expect Oregon at home to be able to to step up and take control of this game. I do think there's some question about Dylan Raola. Like, what does he do in this situation? He looked awesome versus USC, but there is sort of a mindset. When you come off the bench as a backup, something I did a ton, you just come off. It's happened so fast. All of a sudden, you're just playing and you don't really think about much and the defensive coordinator, they might not even have anything dialed up for you. I'm curious to see how Raola handles himself in the system. Does he distribute the balls as smoothly and effortlessly as he begins USC? And then we're talking about, hey, no big deal. This is why they got their backup and paid him a lot of money. But I'm very curious to see how he responds in this situation. But kind of like Bud said, I don't know if he's going to be in many negative leverage situations because I do expect them to be able to control the line of scrimmage. Another thing like to we've the other side of this is whether it's Raola or more, like if you look at UCLA defensively to start the season, they've got some good numbers like overall, but you have to put it in the context of who they've played. Like the offenses that they faced are Cal, San Diego State, Purdue, and Maryland. Who do we think is the best of those four Purdue? Yeah. I mean, so you look at their numbers and they're not bad, but considering who they've played, they're not incredible. They haven't gotten much of a pass rush. They haven't really done a good job. And they've also like I mentioned that Georgia hasn't trailed all season. UCLA's trailed for only eight and a half minutes through four games. So they've been in a lot of positive game states defensively where they're able to kind of just, you know, sit back and teams are trying to come back against them. It makes it far easier to play defense. My bigger question here is whether UCLA is able to move the ball on the ground or not. And I think that they will have some success in offense in this game. I think they're going to score points. I just don't know how many stops they're going to get. Like I don't have a ton of faith in this Bruins defense based on what I have seen that they're going to get enough stops against Oregon in this spot to pull off the upset. Now they might like if if there are turnovers if they keep that turnover margin going that they've shown through the first four games and they turn those turnovers into points like they have at an incredible rate so far. Then yeah, man, upset very much on the table close game very much in the picture. But if they don't, I don't know if they get any other stops any other way. Oh, see all are calling UCLA frauds. No, I'm not calling them fraudulent at all. I'm calling, you know, I wrote two weeks ago in the vibe check. I said, maybe UCLA really is the next Indiana, but the caveat was it was 2024 Indiana. Right. They're not winning a national title, but they are good enough to take advantage of their schedule and beat up on bad teams, but they're just not to the level when they play the elite that they're going to pull off upsets there. And that's exactly what Indiana was in 2024. And then they took another step forward. I could see UCLA being that team. I could see UCLA finishing nine and three and ten and two being in the playoff conversation without a really impressive win on the entire year. So not fraudulent would Oregon make you so winning this game handily as the spread suggests would make you feel better about Oregon most likely? Yeah, yeah, because UCLA is an exceedingly competent team. Like they do what they do really well. And if you go out and you just dog them, yeah. Like we'll go back to last week. When we got yelled at by Iowa fans for being honest, what we thought it was going to happen in the Iowa Ohio State game. I think UCLA has a far better chance in this game than Iowa did last week against Ohio State. I think that because you like UCLA a lot better than you like I always because Oregon is less trustworthy than Ohio State. Both. I think that I trust UCLA's offense far more than I liked Iowa's and I think defensively than they're not as good as Iowa, but they're not the difference isn't drastic. Yeah, I think UCLA is a better team than Iowa is. And I think Ohio State's a better team than Oregon is. I just think this is a uniquely poor matchup for UCLA. I would take you to lay to be to Oregon. Both teams coming out of the off we are sorry to be high. Yes, clip that. No, clip it. The landing. I would take UCLA to be to Oregon on a neutral. Both teams coming out of a off week. I think that's also particularly important to look at the Oregon ducks with the frustrations that they had with new coordinators and coaching staff. If any criticism was going to be handed, handed there not just from their own fans, not just from the outside, but if it's coming from the top down, that was the week to evaluate everything. That was the week to put in any changes. The performance doesn't change. That's not great. But if you do see something start to flip a little bit, both offensively, defensively or one of the other, I think that that's got to be something that has to be credited in terms of the work that they did with the extra time away. Coming up on the other side, red river rivalry renewed in Dallas. It's the Texas state fair. What does big tech stuff to say about that? All that and more. Back here on the cover three podcast, turning our attention to the renewal of the red river rivalry. It is Texas. It is Oklahoma. It is corn dogs. It's big text. Text for Nelly. Where does this conversation start when it's when we're looking at the latest iteration of this one? You guys want a fun fact? Of course. The last time Oklahoma scored a touchdown against the Texas Longhorns, they were both still in the big 12. This 2023. Yeah. Yeah. They have not scored an offensive touchdown. No, I touched down period. They've scored three field goals in the last two years against them. They had six last year and they had three the year before. The question can be, can Oklahoma score touchdown against Texas in the SEC game? Because if they don't, they're not going to win this game. And honestly, based on what we have seen from the Oklahoma offense and what we have seen from the Texas defense, I'm not all that confident they will. It's just a mess. We've gone after every single week all year long. It seems like to this point. They are an incompetent offense. John Matier has, I don't know whether he's got the yips or what, but like I was skeptical of his talent ever since he was at Washington State making the trip to Oklahoma. But to me, this year, he's far worse than he was last year. He's just, he looks like a chicken with his head cut off. He's just making mistake after mistake and it is killing them. I've said it. I've been on the record. I think they really need to consider making a quarterback change. I doubt that they would do it for this game. But I do remember a few years ago, Spencer Ratler was benched in this game for Caleb Williams and it worked out pretty damn well for Oklahoma for that point forward. So maybe we'll see that again. But I think the key here and like this kind of how I felt about the Iowa Ohio State game last week, like I don't think Texas offensively is as scary as Ohio State. So I do think Oklahoma can keep this one close. But I think if I'm Texas, like my entire goal here is just to play a clean game. Don't give Oklahoma a short field because that's probably the only way you can really rely on them to get touchdowns. Play a field position game. If it's fourth and short at midfield, screw it. Just punt because Oklahoma's not going 80 yards on you. So pretend you're Iowa. Just don't get greedy. Don't try to do anything stupid to make your rival look bad. Play your game. Play clean. And you're probably going to win because like you think 17 points is enough. If you're Texas, do you take 17 points and feel pretty comfortable with it? I don't think you ever feel comfortable with 17. But if you gave him 20 or things like, what was that TV show? It was like, you know, you had to pass on the case or you had to take it. Deal or no deal. Yeah. Yeah. I think shark says deal of 20. Yeah. I had 20 to 10. It's kind of the what would the way that this game unfolds in my mind's eye. DK, where are you at? Similar. Um, I mean, did they have a by-week? They've been bad. But I do think Oklahoma's defense, just like I thought Nathans would kind of keep them in the game that they can keep them in this game. And I, it's kind of crazy. I do trust George's offense more than I trust Texas, especially a quarterback. Arch has not played great. He has not like this. I think this will be a, what do we know? Like how good is Texas? Like if Arch comes out there and has a really good game against Oklahoma, I'll feel better about, hey, they are a national championship contender. But they have been very inconsistent. They've been up and down. They've had moments, but they have not had consistency. And I'm still looking for that. And I don't think I trust to get it in this game versus Oklahoma. So yeah, I agree with you guys. If you are shark and you're calling the game plan and there are situations where you can take the more conservative approach, I'm probably doing that with my team too, because my defense is really good. And I don't think you think Oklahoma's going to score on me. Yeah, I'm not sure Arch is going to look amazing here and I don't know they need him to, right?
I think it's like, hey, dude, like, if your eyes come down against the rust, that's kind of a known issue, just hold on to the ball, right? We'll design enough screens and shots and run plays and play action stuff. We don't need to score on every drive. Just don't give Oklahoma short fields. And like, our defense is pretty damn good at Texas. Must-Champ is doing a good job with his defense. They'll probably run the hell out of a tear, you know? But like, ultimately, we feel pretty good here. I think about not letting Oklahoma score more than 17. So we can get 20. We're gonna hold on to something in teens or maybe single digits. But we get out of here with the way we move on. - My expectation is Hollywood's mothers returns to the lineup after missing the Tennessee game. - He's been awesome. - And I think that is a huge boost to all of the efforts of limiting archmaning's turnovers and doing what you can to be able to, you know, generate enough offense to go get to those points that you need for the other side of this. Whit Must-Champ, Colin Simmons, Texas's defensive front against John Matier. Ooh, baby. I mean, is it gonna be a comedy of errors? It can be a blooper reel? Is it gonna be like a snuff film? What do we, what's our expectation here? Hopefully no more urination, you know? Like, I mean, it certainly will be a, it certainly could be a shit show. - There's no guarantee Matier plays terribly, right? Like, it's likely that it continues to play poorly because that's what we've seen from him for basically his entire Oklahoma career. - But it's a guarantee he's challenged in a way that even he is, like, this is a massive, massive challenge against this specific defense and this defensive front and the individuals that are there. - Totally agree, yeah. I mean, I don't think he gets 10 sacs though. I don't think he takes 10 sacs. He could run around and it does. - He might run into six of them. - But he is kind of that wild card. It's just like the unknown and I rolled the dice with the wild card against Georgia and it came up the wrong way. Like, that was as bad as it gets and some of the, but there are plays to be made at times. Whether it's with his legs and he can run it and you're like, "Why not just run it?" Or, you know, there's plays in the air and he airmails it or he throws a pick to the other team. - God, so if he could just, I do not love Matier's stock, by the way, Ryan, I do not love the stock. I just think it's a wild card. Like, it truly isn't unknown. Like, Bud said, "I saw a quarterback who I cannot believe they rolled him back out there in the second half against Georgia." Like, I thought, my goodness, you have to take him out because he is so rattled. Like, you could potentially ruin him for the season. They stuck with him, settle down a little bit in the second half, but I think that spoke volumes about where they're just right or die with John Matier. - How much of that is Vinnables as a deep into coordinator who's still learning to be a head coach and how much of that is just, they don't like the backup. - Right. So, with new power and then if they don't want to go to with new power, the Mercer transfer, then you're going to two true freshmen who, just like the quarterback room, doesn't have a lot of options because Jackson Arnold is the starter at UNLV. The quarterback room doesn't have a lot of options 'cause Michael Hawkins is running wild on big 12 defenses over at West Virginia. I mean, this is the other options that could be there are playing college football and starting elsewhere, just not at Oklahoma. And I think that if Matier plays really poorly out the gates, it would be irresponsible to not at least, but to have a full week leading into this and to not at least prepare one of your backups to go out there. I think that would be irresponsible coaching staff. So I think that they come into this. If this is bad, we actually do have a break glass in case of emergency game plan. The player is prepared, the offense is prepared. And that could be bad for Matier. I mean, Danny, you could speak to it, but quarterbacks talk about looking over your shoulder and whether or not you do have the confidence. Well, guess what? I don't know if he's earned the confidence. I think that this needs to be the fire under your ass performance where he knows if he does not perform, if he does not take care of the football, there already is a plan to be able to come in and replace him. - Kent, I think Texas can think, turn over avoidance first and still score enough. Can Oklahoma think turn over avoidance first and still score enough? Or they probably have to embrace the risk and embrace the variance. Like the plan that gives Oklahoma the best chance to win this game is also probably the plan to get some beat by four scores. You know, like they're gonna have to try some stuff and just hope Matier can hold on to the ball. - These are two nationally of the most defensively, they get more pressure than anybody. Oklahoma's first, Texas is third. But when you go to the other side, in the power four, Texas ranks 44th and pressure rate allowed, which is not good, especially considering how much money they've probably got invested in that offensive line. You'd like to see it be much better than that, although I put some of that on arch. Oklahoma is 60 second. Oklahoma's sitting there with Boston College as far as like pressure rate allowed. Like Clemson is doing a better job keeping heat off of Tate Reynolds and Oklahoma is doing of keeping off Matier. Now again, some of that is Matier. But with these two pass rushes in the way that these two offensive lines have worked, I feel far worse about Oklahoma's chances of avoiding turnovers and Texas's. - Hey, I'm not gonna hit him with the mute. He's doing this to avoid the construction sound. So listen, it's just a tough, tough ask for you. You're good, what's up, bud? - I wonder what a parlay of Texas money line and Oklahoma defense of score no pace. - 'Cause that's the negative court way, hold on. Oh, don't know, I don't know. - No, I think it's extremely correlated. Yeah. Like if Oklahoma doesn't score on defense for special teams. - They got no chance. But the problem is the- - No chance, but not much of it. - The price you're laying for a Texas money line is just gonna, you know, I don't know what it would pay. We could figure it out. - It uses it up a bit. - Speaking of the, speaking of the betting angle to this one, on September 29th, you got on the look ahead. You could have gotten this total at 45. This thing is at 39 and a half on Tuesday. Is it 41 and a half on Sunday? What's, we got locks coming up on Thursday. Nobody needs to tip their hand. My question is, where do you think this total closes? - I think I see it at 38 and a half. Do you guys see that? - I mean, it gets, it was 41, like 36 hours ago. So that's why I'm at it. It's like, what's the bottom out number here? - Well, 38's a key. So I don't think you're getting this below 38 with how much speed's on the field. You know, like both sides do have players. You can change the scoreboard in the hurry. And both sides do our kind of turnover prone. So that creates short fields. I don't think you're gonna see this go below 38. Yeah, doubt it. - It would be funny. - It would be funny, but. - Right, a red river shoot out with a total of 34 and a half. You know, one of them old, like Pat Fitzgerald, Iowa and Nebraska. I just remember the first like Iowa and Northwestern, 34 and a half, you know, that was just really seeing the clouds part in the sunshine down to be able to see that in college football. - Is the red river rock fight corporate? - There we go. I was thinking, yeah, Tom. - Red river rock fight. - I like that. - I like that a lot. Anything else here, the match, just any other name, stats, angles to this one that we have not gotten a chance to uncover so far? - Probably the best speed test, I think, from like a speed-resure standpoint that the Texas tackles have faced. - Mm-hmm. - Right? Like, you know, Ohio State's a little more power guys on the outside. Like, I'd be interested to see how they play there. - Great point. Out in Lincoln. Tell me if you heard this one before. The Nebraska court and Huskers are off to a hot start. They've got a big dog in town. The fans are going nuts. This is the moment. This is the breakthrough. Bud, what's it gonna look like? - Ah, I think Indiana rolls them. I did a thing in the preseason where I projected where everybody's record was likely to be by each week of the season. And it had Nebraska very likely to be undefeated by this point. So I just think Indiana's a way better team, you know? Like Michigan State is awful. Maryland appears like they're a disaster. They've played to Ohio. Who's the other game I'm missing here? - They play to nobody. - Yeah. Here, I have this handy. I can't remember, but like in my finale ratings, which just do, you know, everything that's happened this year doesn't take into account like, you know, like power rating or anything, just how the teams have performed. Their strength of schedule is the 128th most difficult so far. Indiana's 106. And like people talk about how Indiana hasn't played anybody to Indiana's played more than Nebraska has to this point. - Yeah, I think Indiana will score in the 40s. And I think Nebraska will score in the 20s. - When some, how many mobile quarterbacks has Indiana faced over the last couple of years? - They faced Colton when he was at Old Dominion. - That's like a lopsided affair. - Yeah, he ran it on him pretty well. I mean, that was that was a game that he complained to us about right at Midi a day. Who else are they faced? - There's not a long list of them. - They faced Brandon Sorsby in the season open last year. They faced Underwood last year, although he didn't really, you know, whatever. - Wait, he's asking about Indiana. - Oh, I'm sorry, I'm looking at Indiana. How many mobile quarterbacks have they faced? - Yeah, I can't call some problems for Indiana defense that, you know? - It's very disciplined.
always in their spots like that is the one kind of thing that shows up that kind of can throw a wrench and fans one thing that was always Nick Sabin script tonight. Even now with Kirby's like how do you beat these teams? How do you put up points again when they're so well coached? If you do have a mobile quarterback, it does not. I don't think anybody's going to confuse Calandria with Lamar Jackson, but he is pretty good weapon with the legs, which I think makes him a better fit in the system than Dylan Riala was that we talked a lot about this offseason. I am kind of with you guys on that. I think Indiana imposed their will last year was there in Lincoln when Michigan came to town. The score wasn't really indicative of what the way that game unfolded. So I'll be curious to see how this one unfolds. I just think that's kind of a if Calandria can extend some drives, can they make this thing interesting? Can they make, you know, Josh Hoover uncomfortable on third downs? He's starting to get more and more comfortable in that system. He's making great decisions with the football. I just don't know if Nebraska's defense is going to present much of a challenge. Yeah, like if you look at as we've gone over the strength of schedule Nebraska's face, it is not anything to be concerned about, but like you look at the underlying metrics, they suggest that this is like an actual good team. But the question that we have to do is how will they hold up when they face teams like Indiana? Because I mean, their next two games are this week they're Indiana, then they're facing Oregon. So we're going to learn a hell of a lot more about what Nebraska is over these next two weeks. And to Danny's point, like you saw last week, Chip Kelly pretty decent at trying to get you going the wrong way. We saw what he did to Penn State, right? Indiana took away Northwestern's run game, even in that spot. They have just like 1.7 yards per carry. Now, Aden Childs isn't the runner, Calandria. So it's still a difficult task. But the one thing I have noticed watching in the end of the last couple of weeks is their front seven has been much better the last couple of games. Then it was to start the year like they're not out of their gaps like they were against North Texas and in their other games, they're not getting gashed because of it. They're sticking to their assignments. Obviously Dana with Calandria and his offense is going to try to figure out test ways to see if he can get them out of those gaps. But I do believe the vulnerability of the Indiana defense right now is in the secondary and I'm not saying it's bad. I just feel like of the the areas on that unit, the secondary is the one I feel is getable. I don't think the front seven is as getables. It wasn't the other side. But go ahead Tom, now go. Oh, geez. You muted yourself after you began talking. Oh, let's cut to it. I thought I had an opening in that. Open. Yeah. All right, cool. See, I got to watch if it's a drill at mute. If he's using a screwdriver, I don't. Right. I also think Nebraska will have to play differently on defense than they've had to play in any prior game. I think about the receivers they've played. Like, can you name a receiver on Michigan state? We can name a couple none of them really work naming. Like they're not scary in any way. Right. Maryland is an improved receiving core, but that's improved over being terrible last year. Like they're not good or special. Indiana is rolling out a couple legit pros. And I do think that makes Nebraska have to defend this a lot differently. You know, I I don't. Yeah, I don't know, man, like I don't I don't think these teams are are similar caliber. Honestly, I'm I'm haunted by haunted by the thought that the way the path to victory is that Nebraska is going to appear against the Indiana Hoosiers tiny and unable to stop the run. And that if you go ask 1997 chip and tell him that the Indiana Hoosiers are going to run the ball right down the black shirts throats, it would absolutely blow my mind. But I don't think Nebraska is going to be able to stop Indiana's run game. And I think that even if Joshua or I mean Kurt Signetti says before the season, best thing is a run game and a defense and then you know, a run game and defense and you kind of needed to settle into place a little bit. But if you want to even eliminate the potential of Joshua or giving this Nebraska home crowd some life, run the football at him. I just I I could be very wrong with this. Nebraska could stand up and they could have the run fits. But Indiana dealt with some injuries in that running back room. And I I still think that they are getting to a point where they are rounding into form at the right time. I think they run the football really effectively against Nebraska. Joshua River isn't in a lot of tough situations. And when they do get into third down and red zone, you can't guard Charlie Becker and Nick Marsh. Sorry. Like that's you don't even need to spam them, right? It's just those throws in the key moments. I think they'll be there for them. And they'll probably have good matchups. Be if Indiana is able to start off by running the football effectively. I just I don't know if they're going to be able to have enough at the trenches. Which again, from the like last 30 years, last 50 years of college football, the idea that Indiana looks like the better team in the trenches against the Nebraska corn huskers in Lincoln is going to be a little bit mind boggling. One thing that I do think we need to be aware of here, though, is you know, this is a road game. Pretty sure it's Indiana's is this Indiana's first road game of the year? It's a very they were out. No, they were. Oh, they were runners. That doesn't count. I'm sorry. So this is their first actual road game where there will be people in the stance. And it's something that you actually have to deal with. But like you go to that Northwestern game. Josh Hoover hasn't made a bunch of mistakes as far as turnovers. But Indiana hasn't really played a team that has been capable of punishing the mistakes that he has made. Like in the Northwestern game, he missed two wide open touchdown throws. And so that game's 12 to nothing at halftime realistically, it probably should have been 26 to nothing. If Josh Hoover makes those two throws, and then who knows what the second half of that game looks like, maybe Northwestern doesn't come out with the same kind of, hey, we've got a shot to win this game kind of energy in the second half and make it a game. Maybe it just turns into a very boring Friday night blowout. So Josh Hoover now on the road in a difficult environment. We've seen him in these spots before he came to Indiana have bad games turn over the ball. If he turns it over, can Nebraska take advantage of it? So that's the one thing I think if you're Indiana, my biggest concern is don't give him free possessions. Don't give him short fields. If you don't, you're probably going to win this game. If you watch that Maryland game, right? Like if not for the punt block, Maryland might really be up 20 to nothing on these guys. Like the Nebraska was doing nothing. And Maryland was, Maryland had like 300 yards in the first half. You know, and that's not a good Maryland team. Like the, the punt blocked really saved Nebraska's butt. See, it bought them a little bit of time and a little bit of margin on the scoreboard to get them time to figure things out. And they went in up 48, 23 and you know, pick six late and whatnot. But Maryland moved the ball and then pretty consistently. I don't. Yeah, I just, I thought Nebraska would be undefeated by this point in the season. They are, I thought it was mostly scheduled related because Nebraska schedule is so heavily backloaded. The real games are coming. Coming up on the other side, another week, another really fun Friday night in college football. We'll take a look at the Friday night's lights action. Plus more of the best from week six and more. Next. Back here on the cover three podcasts, Michael Brown and the tailgate asking about North Dakota State UNLV. Don't worry. It's on the run down. But first we're going to start with Friday night, including no boys, you know, feeling a little more confident, at least not as bleak. Good performance against Virginia. Now you're on the road against a Louisville team that is absolutely reeling after back to back losses. Can, can Mike Norvell and the nobles keep this going against the cards, DK? What's the outlook say? I think that can is probably more about Louisville. What's the hex going on at Louisville than it is about Florida State being back in this position. The ovels had one of the biggest downfalls from going from a good loss to Ole Miss. Hey, we say no good. You can't say good. I know. I know, but like, wow, look at how where they were then to all the sudden being just inexplicably where they are. That's gut jack time on a Friday night in Louisville. I think Florida State's gaining some confidence very clearly. Do I trust them in this spot? No, but I think Louisville's it's more about like I said, it's more about Louisville's vulnerability than it is about Florida State just being able to start themselves. Yeah, I didn't watch that if a shoe game live and went back and watched it. They did some good things for sure. They're getting some more good snaps from Kevin Wynn who's like their only actual nose guard type body. But, man, guys, I'm not going to lie. I was pretty just pointing to Virginia. Their tackling effort was pathetic. We know Bo really can't throw very well and he definitely didn't look 100% running wise. I don't know. I think Louisville rolls out of bed and drops 35. So, I don't have a lot of faith in his defense. Every confident passing game, if a shoe has faced, has just totally diced them. So, I don't think that's going to change. If you look how Lincoln played last week in the loss at NC State, he couldn't run around a lot. I think he was definitely injured and he played really well from the pocket. So, if he's slightly healthier this week and the legs come back, I think they diced his episode defense pretty easily. And I do think Louisville will be up for this game. They've got a lot of guys who are from the state of Florida. Louisville is one of those teams that like I have real questions about their focus issues on a week-to-week basis. But I think they'll be up for this. What a great read and what a great criticism of the Louisville Cardinals culture that you know they're going to get up when they're playing against SMU, when they're playing against Ole Miss, when they're
planning as far to state, and they're not when they play against waking and sea state. - Exactly right. - Tom, any thoughts here? - Kind of, I mean, what is Louisville, you think will be fired up, but Louisville might be like, oh, we're done. - I think they're both done as far as the conference race. - Right. - So we'll see, this is get your boys fired up, Friday. - I mean, who's got girlfriends? Who's got girlfriends still at Louisville? Who's got girlfriends at another school? You know, like we, it's, it's 2027 calendar, purchasing season, all right? We don't want to bring in 2027 calendar, purchasing season just yet for the Louisville Cardinals. Also on Friday night, Iowa, F the Ohio state loss, now they got head out to Seattle, that's a brutal back-to-back. Washington, you know, I've, I've got a little bit of, did they, how long does it take to reload the musket? They gave a lot into that USC game, be an interesting test for them as well, Tom. What's the, what's the read here? - You touched on it, if I'm Kirk Farron, so I'm sending an angry letter to the Big 10 office is asking why the hell you're making me fly to Seattle on a short week, the week after I had to play Ohio State. That's not, that's not how you honor a legend. - No, that, that is a very tough ask. Like I, I won't be shocked if Iowa goes on the road and wins this game even on the short week because DeMond Williams has shown an ability to turn the ball over and this offense has not been incredible. Like they had some crazy fourth-down antics in the game against USC to make it, you know, keep it close late, but I wasn't overly impressed by what they did on the whole in that game. So I still have real questions about them offensively. I think this could be kind of a low scoring, a ugliest game, I think that Hank Brown kind of came back to Earth against the Ohio State defense. I think this Washington defense is pretty good. I don't think they're terrible, I don't think they're great, but we could see more struggles there. And if Iowa isn't able to run the ball, I don't think they're going to be able to score a ton of points on the Huskies either. So it's probably going to come down to which quarterback doesn't mess up. - Late night in Provo, Iowa State come into town. Be what you spanked up. I got the injury list continues to grow, but they should have a big advantage against an Iowa State defense that could not wrap up Michael Hawkins whatsoever. I mentioned on Saturday night, that game I recognized was fun. I was kind of tracking it. I was monitoring it. Gave it the full rewatch yesterday afternoon and just a delightful college football game, but my oh, my. My there's a lot of green space there in Ames. - We'll see even with the injuries, if BYU's able to assert itself, DK, do you have any read or something to watch? - I was gonna say do not, do not make the mistake of saying that Penn State looks like Iowa State just dressed up in Penn State colors because - I was saying it's playing better. - Dude, they do. - Exactly, that's what I'm they were upset with that take, but they are playing way better than I thought. I do think this is one Provo, LJ Martin, steady dose on the ground, physicality. I think that's where BYU does have the significant edge. I think they're a better football team and I don't think Iowa State's gonna put up any more near as many points they did this past weekend. It is a trap game, right? God, Notre Dame's next week? - Yep. - Yeah. - Wait, can I, should I rile up a little bit more is Isaac in the chat? - You can, you can be angry at us for comparing like what this is what Iowa State would look like in the Big Ten. Yeah, you're three and two, but your wins are Southeast Missouri, Bowling Green, and West Virginia. And you've played two good teams and you've lost a boat. Like. - I think that here are the things from the vibes department. They were running hard, they were hitting. The crowd was packed too. The way that we talked about Iowa State coming into the season was that this was gonna be like some sad sack charity year. And that place was loud, it was rocking and the players were fired up and into it. Jalen Rainer is a concern. You put Jalen Rainer in third and 12, then yeah, things could get a little bit dicey, but I do think that they've done, like, line men are getting downhill, trying to put a linebacker's ass into the ground, seven yards down the field. Like it's, it is a team that is playing with a little bit of an edge to it. And that's why I do think that they'll bring a fight here and ultimately find themselves at a talent and size disadvantage over the course of four quarters. But yeah, it is gonna be a fun, interesting test to see where BYUs focuses at. As again, a lot of players in that TCU game ended up leaving. We'll have to check on their availability as we get a little bit closer to kick off. And, you know, the Cougars, as we mentioned, it's that big game in prime time. Against Notre Dame in Provo, they're not gonna leave town again. It's gonna be really easy for this to all feel like one big warm up. I mean, I think, and not to, you know, at the risk of violating our own media policies here, but this is an ESPN game, right? The Iowa State at BYUs. - Yeah, I think it's ABC prime, yeah. - Or the SEC fans were upset. - Yeah, Notre Dame is gonna be that. And then this one's, like, I can't help but think the way this game is gonna be packaged and sold is very much just like a warm up. Like, they are going to advertise this as a warm up for BYUs Notre Dame next Saturday. So, there wouldn't be hilarious factor if Iowa State coming in and winning is there. But all of the science says that BYUs should be able to take care of business. Okay, what else? I'll just go open the floor. I wrote down a few other games, but I don't want to hog this one. DK, where would you like to turn our attention for some more rapid fire previews? We've got USC at Penn State, something to keep an eye on. USC is out there celebrating, getting a defensive stop to win the game despite the amount of points and poor plays that they had against Washington. Penn State, I was looking up to see what is behind Rocco Becht. I like Rocco Becht a lot, but you do wonder if there's another option. If Matt Campbell would break the glass and maybe start preparing for the future, there's another Iowa State transfer behind Rocco Becht. Alex Mansky, it does not feel great in Penn State. I wonder how long it takes for the home crowd to kind of turn on them and if they do that, the USC should be able to handle their business. Is that, is Penn State favorite in this game? - Yes. - Yeah. - Yeah. - Yup. - Upset alert. What do they know that we don't? - USC traveling, light out. - I mean, are they taking a bus? (laughing) - I'm glad you're gonna be so stiff. - Remember the record's back. - USC has not looked good at any point when it has had to travel to the Eastern time zone. - That is true. - Do you know what else I heard was pitched to me, Danny was the Danton Lynn factor that if anybody's gonna have a good idea for how to stop, not just Lincoln, but even Jaden and just, you know, the one piece of Penn State that a Penn State fan is hanging their hat on is the defense. - Okay, well, here's a big game breakdown for you. Just run the ball on it because everybody's been able to run the hell over Penn State all season long. - More physical teams though, that's the one thing. Maybe the lack of physicality for USC, which is something we thought we were gonna get. Maybe that is an issue. - Anxiety bowl, winter day feel good, loser feels horrendous. - Oh. - Yeah, not great. Not great at either way. From the football side of it, you mentioned Danny that Jaden and the offense didn't really, wasn't able to really light it up against Washington over the weekend. But what'd you see from that one that really sparked that? - From Washington, USC. - Yeah, like why was USC a little bit limited offensively? - I thought USC looked kind of sluggish, honestly. Washington played hard defensively. They were just a little out of sync, run game. They had some short yardage stops early, which I think kept that thing close. We give USC credit for stepping up defensively late, but good god, the tackling was awful in the first half of that game. They just kind of came out, just sort of floating through it. And then they turned it on in the second half and it kind of felt like, all right, here comes USC. Washington's not any good. Like they're playing hard, but they're not good. And if USC just plays kind of clean down the stretch, they should be able to come back and win this thing. And Washington has the ball with the chance to win the game on the final play. So yeah, USC's just been massively disappointing this year overall and Penn State. I do think Penn State's defense is still decent, right? Like it's not crazy good. They hadn't scored against Wisconsin like defensively. Then Wisconsin probably leads that wire to wire, you know. Just yeah, like two really disappointing teams this year that the big 10 really hope one of them could step up and be okay, but like both of them are kind of, yeah. - Tom, what else? What are the games have your attention here before we? You got any thoughts on North Dakota State, UNLV? - Yeah, North Dakota State looks very good, but you look at their strength and the schedule so far this year, yet to be tested. UNLV has not lived up to preseason expectations, but it has been better the last few weeks. And while Jackson Arnold is still very limited, like.
Dan's kind of figuring out how to use him a bit more effectively and he's actually done a pretty decent job of taking care of the football So he's he's not turning it over which is helping you and LV quite a bit So I think that could be a more competitive game than maybe you would expect based on what you've probably seen from both teams And then the other game to me is Boisey at Fresno Like that's a huge game in the pack 12 and I think Boisey, you know We we think of how they looked in that a work in game. They've been very good I think we kind of overestimate how good they've been because of that performance against Oregon And I think Fresno could be a real test for them. I think Houston at Kansas State is Is a pretty important one here like to me. This is a knockout game to make the big 12 championship If you look at how the schedules play out and how the tie-breakers play out if you lose this It's not like mathematically impossible that you still make it, but it's damn hard So like Kansas State's favorite by two and a half here over a Houston team that has not looked very good at times and You know honestly that Kansas State's looked Kind of up and down, you know This is going to be one to watch like I think it's be a close like important conference games What was some real stakes back? Tom and I got hired by CBS Sports in 2010 and Before you know sports gambling the Supreme Court decisions in 2018 there was a period maybe even until like 2014 Where it was a little bit verboten to talk about it But also just not really part of the conversation and we get tasked with something like upset alert And if you were smart enough to at least pay attention to this stuff You'd be able to get away with saying Houston's on upset alert Because they were a ranked team that you know was going on the road and oh this now we know it's like Kansas State is the team that is favorite to win this game the fact that there's a little two zero beside Houston's name Does not necessarily indicate a large separation in quality between these two Fascinating game for for Willie Fritz's crew after what I thought was an underwhelming performance against UCF They had the road game against Georgia Southern with all the homecoming affair You know, this is a step up in competition a proven moment for the Cougs as they as they head in to take on Colin Client's Wildcats Who I think in terms of the larger national conversation? This is probably they're going to be their first time Really in the spotlight really getting scrutinized I know that the we try to take in as much as we can but this will be a The Colin Client Kansas State story got a lot of talk in the offseason We haven't really circled back to it a lot here in the regular season outside of talking about their offensive line injuries But this one's a very very excited about that one for sure this weekend I will say stay in the big 12 Arizona at West Virginia like West Virginia is not going to make the big 12 title game Obviously Arizona if they want to stay in the big 12 race has got to win this otherwise. They're done It's going back chip a couple weeks ago the FS1 score bug had the upset alert up when Florida beat Ole Miss So don't worry. They haven't completely given up on it yet The in back to North Dakota State UNLV Tom UNLV's lost a they're down a lot of receivers Be sure to if you're trying to get in on that one make sure to check up on the latest Dan Mullin with our friend Haley Sutton post game after you know just talking about bodies dropping left and right for both Cal and UNLV He kind of felt like that was a game obviously they won close But that they were just both mash units and he gave his team real credit didn't win a great win Even though it's one of the only wins against the power conference opponent that we have seen so far this season by a team from the group of six But you know, it's it's Jackson Arnold. It's jet Thomas in that game. Cal decided that they were going to sell out the stop jet Jackson made him pay and so that'll be interesting to see going up against the North Dakota State defense that if If you it'll be is down all their receivers and they can just he in on trying to stop what's in the backfield That'll be a big part in trying to limit what the rebels can do offensively All right, Texas A&M is earlier LSU Kentucky gets your juices flowing at all They not be watching them right Yeah I'll probably watch the second half of the one that like whichever one's close. I I think they're bigger games to watch this weekend during those time slots Missouri obviously in a you know, what are you gonna bring back to the table after a monumental win good good test there That game is gonna be in Columbia. I am deeply fascinated by Mike Elko's war with the streamers. I don't I mean, I just I've oh Tom. This is great. I don't know any of these streamers names But apparently some of the Texas A&M players Invited some of these guys down the tunnel and tried to get them into the locker room and Mike Elko sees all because all these streamers have camera men Right and so he sees he sees all these camera men and then he's like, but your players invited me. I mean, there's like a I don't know. It's just interesting right it I don't think it would have been cool. How about this? I don't think it would have been cool with Mike Elko Even if they were winning all of these games But it is a little interesting to whenever you see these kind of diversions from Everybody pulling on the rope in the same direction everybody singing from the him and all on the same page and maybe everyone's kind of Out living their own world. Maybe we've got a lot of main character energy from the Texas A&M team Yeah From a certain generation entirely maybe I'm literally on camera for my job however many hours we can I can't even imagine the temptation to have a camera following me when I'm not working and just living my life What the hell who wants it? Interesting interesting times for sure. Okay, speaking of times we are going to be back with you 11 a.m. Eastern time as we get you set four weeks six with our very best bets in our week six locks to come and hang out Jump in the tailgate pull up get the likes up then we'll give you the locks and the locks will move the lines and you can follow him on Twitter Time to know you can follow him and Danny can know follow him at flood o 3 follow me at ship underscore Patterson gentlemen Thank you very much. Thank you. See you When the world gets you down no escape to Pluto TV. This is objectively fantastic watch school abroad crazy ex-girl friend Wayne's world and more The best things on TV really are free escape to Pluto TV stream now they never
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The Georgia-Alabama matchup is a high-stakes contest featuring key quarterback battles between Keelan Russell and Gunner Stockton, with defensive pressure and third-down efficiency being central to the outcome.
Georgia’s offense, despite strong scoring, has faced limited adversity, while Alabama’s defense has not been tested by a team with Russell’s mobile and high-risk style, creating an opportunity for pressure and turnovers.
Alabama’s defense may struggle against Georgia’s short, quick passes, especially if they can force the game into third-and-long scenarios where Georgia’s offense is forced to make risky decisions.
The game’s outcome hinges on quarterback composure under pressure—Keelan Russell’s tendency to make mistakes in high-leverage situations versus Gunner Stockton’s improved decision-making and accuracy.
Weather and field conditions may significantly influence the game, particularly by affecting mobility and balance, potentially giving Alabama an advantage in a wet environment.
Oregon vs. UCLA features a defensive battle where Oregon’s improved run defense could neutralize UCLA’s dominant rushing attack, but UCLA’s turnover margin and offensive consistency remain key factors.
Oklahoma vs. Texas is expected to be a defensive and field-position battle, with Texas likely to avoid giving Oklahoma short fields and Oklahoma’s offense struggling due to quarterback John Matier’s poor performance and inconsistency.
The total points for games are expected to drop to around 38.5, reflecting the defensive nature of these matchups and the potential for low-scoring, close contests.
Summary:
The Cover 3 podcast offers in-depth analysis of key college football matchups, focusing on Georgia vs. Alabama, Oregon vs. UCLA, and Oklahoma vs.
Texas. In the Georgia-Alabama game, the core narrative centers on the defensive battle between Alabama’s elite pass rush and Georgia’s mobile quarterback Keelan Russell, with Georgia’s offensive line and quarterback decision-making being critical. The podcast highlights how Georgia’s lack of adversity in previous games may make them vulnerable when facing Alabama’s pressure tactics.
The matchup between Gunner Stockton and Alabama’s defense is deemed more intriguing than Russell’s, as Stockton’s short, accurate passes and Georgia’s inability to push the ball downfield create opportunities for Alabama to force third-and-long situations. Weather is seen as a decisive variable, potentially favoring Alabama’s mobile offense. In the Oregon-UCLA clash, Oregon’s defensive strength and ability to control the line of scrimmage are expected to dominate, especially against UCLA’s high-powered rushing attack, though UCLA’s turnover margin gives them a potential upset edge.
The Oklahoma-Texas game is viewed as a defensive and field-position battle, with Texas aiming to avoid giving Oklahoma short fields and Oklahoma’s quarterback John Matier struggling due to inconsistency and poor execution. The podcast concludes that all three matchups are tightly contested, with defensive performance, quarterback composure, and game conditions playing decisive roles. 5, reflecting the defensive nature of the contests.
Overall, the analysis emphasizes that success in these games hinges on discipline, execution under pressure, and the ability to avoid negative leverage situations.
FAQs
Georgia's defense aims to create third-and-long situations to force turnovers, as Russell has shown the ability to succeed from the pocket. However, they must balance pressure without opening up running lanes, as Russell is a mobile quarterback who can make big plays when given space.
Gunner Stockton has a low rate of long passes and relies on short, quick throws and catch-and-run plays. Alabama's defense may struggle to contain his offense, especially if they fail to stop Georgia from creating negative situations that force long drives.
Georgia's defensive line, featuring players like Colin Wilson, are elite in size, speed, and reaction. They may disrupt Alabama's offensive line and force the Crimson Tide into difficult situations, especially in the run game and pass protection.
Georgia's offense has been explosive, but they haven't faced a high-pressure, mobile quarterback like Russell. Their success will depend on avoiding turnovers, managing downfield plays, and capitalizing on situations where Alabama's defense is forced into adverse field positions.
Wet or slippery field conditions could negatively impact mobile quarterbacks and defensive players. Alabama's mobile offense and Georgia's defensive line may be especially affected, potentially giving an edge to the team better adapted to such conditions.
Oregon's defense can control the run game by applying consistent pressure and limiting big plays. If they succeed in slowing UCLA's rushing attack, they can force UCLA into third-and-long situations and reduce their offensive efficiency.
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