Speaker 1Welcome to the Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mayes. Today, it's the Week 5 Preview. Two games of the week. We hit Rams, Bills, and Niners Seahawks. Some bangers of headliner games in Week 5. Dug into one thing from a couple other games. Chatted a little bit about the Eagles season and where that is headed. A little bit of Lane Johnson celebration. Whole bunch of stuff on the Week 5 Preview today. Let's get to it with me, Derek, and Dave right now. It's the Week 5 Preview. A lot of good stuff to dig into today. We've got two games of the week. Got a couple other newsy bits. Chat a little bit about the Eagles. A little bit about what's happening with the Broncos play calling situation. A lot of stuff to chew on today.
Speaker 2It's been a wild week for underdogs. It's been unexpected news.
Speaker 1Correct. I mean, in mid-season news, there's been a lot of bangers over the last 48 hours or so.
Speaker 3Does Sean Payton taking back play calling count as surprising news?
Speaker 1Let's call it notable. Let's call it notable news. Stuff that, the type of news you don't always get heading into Week 5. That's how I'll frame it. Is that better?
Speaker 2Yeah, I think that that's a little bit more fitting. Two huge news items. The other one, and we'll talk about it, Lane Johnson retiring. One is kind of, even knowing Lane said this was going to be his last year, you weren't ready for it to happen. Oh, no, of course not. So, shocking, and then you hear the Payton news, and you're like, well, yeah, okay. Like, we knew, we had an idea that that might be coming.
Speaker 1Let's dig into our first game of the week here. 49ers at Seahawks. Really looking forward to this one. Doesn't take a lot of explanation as to why this is a game of the week. I think right now, you can make a pretty solid argument that the Niners have been the best team in the NFL over the first four weeks. When you look at a multi-year period, and you take everything into account, I still think you would probably be a little bit more confident about it. I still think you would probably be in the right to say that the Seahawks are the best team in the NFL, just with everything that we know, and banking last year combined with this year, and so it doesn't take a lot to sell me on this one.
Speaker 2And with the way it went last year, too, I'm so excited for the renewal of this, where, you know, I mean, the 49ers won that great game in the season opener, and they've been, up until last year, had been the more consistently successful team, and by the end of the year, you were like, oh, man, Mike McDonald's got Kyle Shanahan's number, doesn't he? And so, to see what this looks like with the Niners rolling, and, you know, some of their new pieces contributing, I'm, I was gonna say healthy, not, that's not really still a thing, but maybe healthier looking than we hoped. Either way, I'm, I'm excited for the renewal of this one. I think that's a good place to start.
Speaker 1The idea that, for the most part, I mean, Mike, Mike McDonald has had Kyle Shanahan's number in a way that very few defensive coaches do. And so, Derek, I think the entry point I'm interested in here is, is there a reason to think that this is gonna look different for the Niners offense than it did over the final two matchups from last year, where they really got dominated by Seattle? Seattle controlled those games on that side of the ball.
Speaker 3I think it can be a little bit better. You know, I think the offensive line is playing better right now than it had last year. You have Mike Evans, who does not feel 100% healthy, but still feels like a nice middle-of-the-field presence, which we can talk about in a little bit. I still think the way that the Seahawks play defense is suited to not let the 49ers do what they want to do, because the 49ers rushing offense is all about how can we create space in the C-gap, whether that's with motions, or they're shifting to it, they're flipping formations, whatever they're going to do, how do we get that to pop? It's really hard to do that against the Seahawks edge rusher, or edge guys, whether it's DeMarcus Lawrence, Chenna Nwosu, some of the run tools they use, where they're blitzing, you know, Witherspoon off the edge, or Eamon Warrior, whatever it's going to be. And so, I think they are just a perfect matchup to shut that down right now. Especially, you know, Juice Check is, he's not going to play in this game. Like, he's out for a while now. I think that they're going to have to retool their offense a little bit. And so, in this week particular, I think that's tough. And then the other element of it, this is a Seahawks defense. We talked about it, especially all the time when they play the Rams. Those middle-of-the-field, 11 to 20-yard throws over the middle, you have to be able to challenge those windows, and you have to have the arm to fit them. Purdy will throw them. Whether or not he consistently has the arm talent to fit them in there against Ernest Jones, the way that some of these corners and safeties are playing, that, I think, is where we get a little bit, you know, trickier as compared to, obviously, a guy like what Matthew Stafford can do at his best.
Speaker 1Going back and re-watching the Niners-Broncos game, one of the first runs they had, it might have been the actual first run they had in the game. They have Kittle going on that little banana motion. He's leading up on Q Robinson, and he gets actual movement on Q Robinson on the edge, where he displaces him on that play. Comparing the edges for the Broncos and the way that those guys are built compared to the way the edges for the Seahawks are built, it's just a very clear example as to why the way the Niners run the ball is just a little bit harder to do against a team that is built literally and figuratively like the Seahawks' defense is built.
Speaker 2I do think that's what makes this so exciting, and it feels like a real rubber-meets-the-road matchup for what the 49ers have been. It's worth saying right here that Kyle Juszczyk's not going to play in this game. He's out. He's out for, like, multiple weeks. So he hasn't missed a game for them since 2022, and he's obviously between the motion and his blocking ability. He's such a big part of what they do. It sucks that it won't be the perfect idea of how they want to do this, but re-watching the Niners, especially against Denver, because, yeah, they're smaller on the edge, but, like, Zach Allen is in the middle of that thing. Like, this is still, it's a tougher front than Miami and Arizona. Absolutely, and they did not move them around in the way that they've done to other teams so far this year. They didn't, but I have. Like, I'm really encouraged by what I've seen from the rest of the 49ers' offensive line. Obviously, we know Trent Williams, but Connor Colby and Dominic Pooney have been all, like, they're out to a fantastic start to this season, and even if it didn't look great against Denver, as pass protectors and in the running game, I thought it was not consistent, but they were getting movement and showing flashes and looking more like pieces to be excited about, rather than just Trent Williams and the four guys.
Speaker 1I think you've just felt a different level of physicality from the interior for the Niners this year than we would become accustomed to. I mean, when we think about the Niners, it's been a lot of undersized guys over the years, zone-blocking team, and I think that, you know, Pooney's a bigger-bodied guy, and even Colby's, like, 3'10", 3'15", and you go back and, from the start of the season, against the Rams, like, their ability to move people just has felt a little bit different this year, Derek, than I think we typically ascribe to the Niners' running game, and specifically the Niners' running game from last year.
Speaker 3And I do think, because of that, you're seeing, like, when they get to some of their counter stuff or some of their, you know, gap stuff, whatever it's going to be, it's been really good.
Speaker 1Yeah, how you define it is probably up to you. It's like, it's weird enough that it kind of falls between a couple different concepts.
Speaker 3It's all really weird in terms of who's pulling where, who is fitting into where, even where they're aligning the backs. Like, on the Debo Samuel play, he's in, like, under center, off set, like, it's 1932, and I'm like, all right, man, if that's what you want to do, like, obviously Shanahan is really interesting with that stuff. So, their run game is varied, but their bread and butter is still the zone stuff. And so, and now I wonder, like, if Jusek was playing, I would have been like, man, this is the game to run counter, power, all that stuff, like, 12 times. But without him, I do think that that's probably going to be a little bit trickier.
Speaker 1We talked about it on the hangover. Some of the only stuff that was working for the Chargers last week is when they were willing to get in 21 personnel and just run the ball downhill at Seattle. And so now not having a fullback and being able to do that, I looked up some of the numbers just because I was curious. The Niners have been in 21 personnel on 41% of their plays so far this season. So that they have lived in 21 for most of the year. They have a 51% rushing success rate out of 21 personnel. They're averaging 0.12 EPA per carry. They only have 17 carries all year out of 12. And that is my assumption. That's probably what we'll see a shift to where now as the move piece, Kittle is just going to do a little bit more of that stuff than he might. In a given week as more of like an inline blocker. He already does some of it. But now I think a lot of that use check role where he's just consistently moving around. What did you say after week one? It's like, I got my cardio in after this one. I think George Kittle, that could be one of the
Speaker 2weeks where he's really getting his cardio in. I'm looking forward to it. And I mean, how they decide to do that and how they decide to pivot without use check. I think you're probably right about that. What that looks like is interesting. But again, I just, these young guards have looked really impressive to me. And now it's Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy. And I assume Leonard Williams is going to play. I think Mike McDonald said he was optimistic. He had he had an ankle injury coming out of the Chargers game, but it sounds like they expect him
Speaker 1to he was limited on Wednesday. It sounds like he's probably going to play the only guy the only like main piece for the Seahawks that did not practice on Wednesday was JSN just because he was getting rest. Looking at the Niners injury report every single week is hilarious. Obviously, there are a bunch of guys that are actually hurt. But then you have several veterans that just don't practice once a week. Trent Williams, not injury related, resting player, Christian McCaffrey, not injury related, resting player, Dre Greenwald, not injury related, resting player, their correct approach. But this team, it's always an adventure. Every single time you look up who's playing and who's not, you got to be careful with the substation, man, don't take any risks, you don't need to. Speaking of injuries in the substation. One of the things we thought might feel different about the Niners offense this year, and really kind of contrasting what it felt like in those Seahawks games in the playoffs was okay, now we have a big bodied vertical X receiver, where we can potentially attack teams down the field outside the numbers in a way we just couldn't at the end of the year. And when you look at the way that Seattle was playing the Niners in those two games, zero respect for their ability to attack that one specific area we thought that bringing mike evans in might give them just a little bit more when it came to that specific thing can you tag down the field outside the numbers a little bit more often mike evans has been really productive for the niners this year derrick but he hasn't really done that like the only i think he has three catches of at least 20 plus air yards this year five targets one of them was a goalball against the dolphins that he caught for a touchdown the other two were one was a crosser that drifted a little bit off field because purdy was extending a little bit and one was like a deep wrap router dig over the middle of the field and so that hasn't really been his role even if mike evans has been a really important piece for why the niners offense has felt how it feels and so i'm wondering is this the week where do we get one of those plays where mike evans is challenging a josh jobe outside the numbers because if you're trying to create the formula for how you can beat the seahawks defense in any given game anecdotally it feels like every single one of those games involves at least one one-on-one outside the numbers deep shot to one of these receivers this year they lost one game it was to washington terry mccorn had one deep ball outside the numbers touchdown on a goalball and so if you're gonna beat them it feels like you need one or two of these the rams had plenty of them last year is this the game where we see that version and that style of impact from mike evans in a way that they really haven't had to tap into so far this year i mean
Speaker 3you have to because even as well as the 49ers are playing right now you're never going to be efficient enough on a down-to-down basis to score 25 30 points on a defense like this and so you do have to generate those it's you know we kind of joked about it but mike evans has really just been super juwan jennings for the most part and that's been really good for them but when we came into the season i thought like okay maybe they are going to try to be a little bit more vertical but it's not really what they're doing and against seattle it really is a lot of the way that they play their coverage whether it's in some of their coverage sick stuff or the quarters if you're playing like three by one they will have that backside safety go and poach the front side because they want to take away the crossers especially against a team like this who likes to run a lot of that stuff well if you can get mike evans isolated one-on-one on the backside you can get some of those posts go balls really deep stop routes like stuff like that they're probably going to have to tap into that more than i think they would like to against other teams like i do think that that's a world that they don't love to live in because they're so two by two but i think you probably have to do it a little bit this week
Speaker 1and he did talk about those deep stop routes they have used him on a couple of those and that's that's something where we might see a little bit of that where he's just going to push vertical he's turning around at 17 to 15 yards can you hit a couple of those in this game where you didn't really have somebody again he's super joan jennings you don't feel good about joan jennings running those deep stop routes against the seahawks in a way you might with mike evans i heard you guys
Speaker 2talking about this on the hangover too for what the expectation was i think nehemiah pritchett has been awesome for the seahawks i still think you should try to win there you know same and honestly i i really like josh jobe as a player too he he can be gotten and like that is a place where i think you at least need to try i don't even want to say the word exploit as if the seahawks have this terrible weakness but like try is a good
Speaker 1word you have to at least try it you have to at least show that you're capable of doing this in a way that you weren't in the back half of last season let's get to the other side of the ball the niners defense is just a unit we haven't really talked much about we spent more time focusing on their offense last week against the broncos derek just going back and watching what the niners defense has been so far this year they've been a top five unit based on any number that you're looking at epa per play dvoa all of that stuff what have your early impressions been and how would you characterize what this defense has looked like with raheem morris as the coordinator
Speaker 3i think in the back end it's not all that different there's still a lot of cover three it's a lot of single high all that sort of stuff but the front is just so much more varied in so many different ways like even just from the way that they are aligning like they really like their third linebacker jayden duggar and we can talk about how much they've been playing base but they've been putting him on the field that's that like on the ball sort of guy who is like a pseudo edge player the way that we've talked about quay walker being used for the raiders they do a lot of that sort of stuff with him and then the other thing is a lot of their blitz packages and what they're doing on pressure downs to me has been really impressive even from week one we've started to see fred warner be used a lot more as a piece like on the ball and as a 24 and 2025 he was rushing about two to three times a game and that was about how much they used him so far through four games this season he has passed rush 21 times which is just over five times a game and it's not even just when they send him like they put him mugged up a lot to like draw pressure and teams are going to slide their protection that way because they don't want to deal with him and it's the way that i think that they've schemed that up when it's still a pass rush unit that is fine but obviously does not have nick bosa right now and you got to generate some of that stuff they've done a really good job of that and i think that's something that's going to really kick ass job at doing that
Speaker 2i think they're very they're varied schematically they're literally varied her next gen they've used 15 d lineman through four games which is the most of the next gen era between injuries and just rotating guys 15 and it's not again it sounds like michael williams is back for this game i hope that's the case because he's an exciting young player if he is we'll just go ahead and call it 16 guys through first five weeks of the season
Speaker 1that the pressure stuff and just how they're using some of those front players is really what has stuck out because now i was wondering what the defense would look like with raheem morris because obviously his background is there's really no specific and quick way to explain it he's coached in virtually every single type of defensive system odd front even front blitz happy teams uh more coverage based teams like he's done a little bit of everything and so i was curious what tweaks we would see to a niners team that had really been a lot of four down and a lot of pressure and just how they're using some of those front players and so i was wondering what tweaks we would see to a niners team that had really been a lot of four down and a lot of pressure and just how they're using some of those front players stuff for a very long time considering who the coordinators have been and i think the main tweak that we've seen and this is partially driven by the personnel duggar and romello height are both hybrid type players and so we have seen them really lean into those guys as a way to make this thing feel a little bit more dynamic where height will be lined up as a spinner and they'll run a simulated pressure with fred warner where height is the one that's dropping into the hook or duggar will be lined up on the line of scrimmage and so your pressure plan is going to just a little bit more dynamic because you have all these sort of flexible pieces and that to me is what has felt different when this team faces a second and nine or any sort of third down situation it's anybody's guess who's going to be mugged up on the line of scrimmage where they're going to be who's coming who's not and i think they've really used that to advantage and use it in tandem with a back seven and a secondary specifically that's playing well i mean you look at that group like lenore's playing really well renardo green is a solid player and then the safeties markie siegel had managed to stave off malik malik mustafa even though he was healthy he was banged up in training camp but he was healthy by the time they started the season and siegel had been playing well enough where they were like we're just going to roll with this guy he's now hurt but now you have you're going back to the guy who would have been the starter coming into the year and so it's a good group on the back end it's a pretty deep group on the back end and they've paired that with a pass rush plan that i think should scare teams right now they have a lot of guys with juice they're undersized as a group but if you're getting teams in a second and nine that matters less and
Speaker 3that they're doing a good job of that i'm just so happy to see the secondary have a chance because last year they just didn't like i thought the secondary it's a lot of the same guy it's pretty much all the same guys as they had in the secondary last year but the front was so bad whether that was getting them into not enough like pure passing downs or when they were in pure passing downs the pass rush just wasn't getting home the fact that they can get home a little bit more they're speeding quarterbacks up in terms of their internal clock you can see renardo green driving on routes lenore really squeezing guys to the sideline the safeties are playing fast and overall the linebacker plays so much better than last year one because warner is just healthy and he's the best player at the position by a mile but dre greenlaw baby he is back he is exceptional again and i don't know if it was just weird with the coaching staff in denver he was obviously dealing with some injuries and stuff but put him back next to fred warner and that dude looks like a second team
Speaker 1all pro again i think we could take it one step further than that in terms of how he looked last week he looked he looked like a second team all pro what what is the word i'm looking oh john wick yeah yeah he looks like a man on a revenge tour last week one of my favorite moments of last week is fred warner yanking away from sean payton after that game ended that's incredible you saw the
Speaker 2clip of him and i don't know what he said i think that part was like made up but he made a he made a great tackle for like a small gain uh and and sean payton was like 10 feet away and he went right sean payton was like pointing at him gary it yeah exactly yes from remember the titans it was like the fifth play of the game like it happened like immediately and i was like jesus but hey you know sometimes you just need to leave home to find out what you were missing the whole time you know he went away for a year and now he's back to looking like dre greenlaw what do we
Speaker 1think about all right we kind of established what the niners defense has been so far this year what does that mean against this seahawks offense specifically in your mind
Speaker 3yeah i i would say in most matchups a lot of other teams you can run the ball a little bit on this san francisco 49ers defense they are like you mentioned they're still pretty small they're without nick bosa you can move these d tackles around a little bit but the seahawks are mostly still a outside zone lead zone sort of running team and i actually think if you're gonna try to attack guys like keon white on the edge like he's actually a good edge setter and then i think if you're playing more zone stuff and you're like trying to get the backers to kind of connect for fit into wherever their their slot is going to be they're really really good at that and whereas i think you can really get this run defenses if you run duo some of the counter gap stuff that's just not as much of what seattle does so i actually think that fit san francisco 49ers defense could be solid against a Seattle team that doesn't have either of its two best backs and then the second part of that I think we're seeing that Sam Darnold is just not seeing it as well as he did last year and that's obviously he misses you know a couple of games like he's not fully healthy he's still trying to learn a system that's a little bit new to him but I think while that might be fine five weeks from now when he's got a little bit more time that's probably really tough I think against the San Francisco 49ers defense that the pressure stuff is really good and Fred Warner is going to take away all the throws that he wants to throw and so I do think that this is going to be tough sledding for
Speaker 1Seattle with a quarterback that just feels a little bit more unsettled than he did last year like you go back and you watch that Chargers game that that's the word that I would probably use this is a Niners defense where if you can get them into defined passing situations on second and long third down you their defense is playing a way that's going to make quarterbacks feel more unsettled because of that pressure stuff that we were talking about and so I think if the Niners can stop the run early downs and we get a lot of pure passing situations for Seattle I don't know if that's the way they want the game
Speaker 2to go I'll be impressed if Seattle runs the ball well in this game just between what the Niners have done what the Seahawks have looked like Seahawks also I and you make a great point about like early downs the Seahawks are also horrendous in short yardage which could loom large in a game like this with Warner and Greenlaw playing the way they're playing and what we've seen you know the Seahawks are third worst in the league in runs of negative or zero yards 20 24% of the time like they're in Raiders Packers territory of just not being able to generate things some of that is obviously Jadarian price not being available but I don't know man I just I do not trust them to consistently be successful running the ball in this game I feel like it might be a little ugly
Speaker 1if this was a 1917 sort of finish that wouldn't surprise me based on everything that we've just said I do think the defenses in this game potentially have the upper hand on both sides of the ball I do think
Speaker 2JSN is a hell of a trump card like I'm not gonna be surprised if they if it just works out that you know if JSN goes off in this game I can't rule that out entirely let's get to our next one here
Speaker 1Bills at Rams this is Monday Night Football correct it sure is look at me the only reason I know that is because Beller told us 15 minutes before we started recording I don't really expect you to know
Speaker 2the noon version of the game I don't know if it's going to be a good first 3 p.m kicks but the fact that you didn't know that this is Monday Night Football is admirable it's a degree of like just being locked in that I can't even fathom I watch them all it
Speaker 1doesn't matter when they're on I'm gonna watch them all Beller tells me which recaps we do in the studio that that's that's that's the only thing that really matters as long as you show up for those we're good I'm showing up now we'll see what happens over the rest of the year again similar to Seahawks Seahawks Niners don't think we really have to sell you on this one Rams Bills was a pretty popular game I think it was a pretty popular game I think it was a pretty popular game before the season started they were the favorites in their respective conferences to go to the Super Bowl they had the best Super Bowl odds we have the two previous MVPs playing against each other which has doesn't happen that often the crazy thing is it kind of does oh okay it does happen
Speaker 2it kind of does happen like no when I saw this I was like oh it's Allen versus Stafford that can't happen very often the the teams that employ the previous two MVPs have played each other in seven of the last eight years we haven't always gotten that matchup because like in 2023 Rodgers was out when they played the Chiefs and I think Lamar missed a game against Patrick Mahomes earlier but like we've had a really crazy run of these matchups where the previous two MVPs are playing each other and I think it's probably because a lot of the MVPs in recent years have played division winners in the AFC division winners in the AFC exactly but this is not that yeah we've got you know a cross-conference game with the two reigning MVPs let's go similar to the situation
Speaker 1with the Niners defense we really Derek haven't talked much about the Bills defense so far this season I don't think they've been a game of the week since maybe week one they played a Thursday night game and so again talking just more about how the offenses looked in that game as you went back and re-watched what the gym liner defenses looked like so far for Buffalo what were your initial impressions initial thoughts about just what they're trying to be on that side of the ball and what has stuck out about it
Speaker 3I think you got to kind of separate front from from back seven here for a lot of different reasons I think the front is playing out of their mind like I think that there's been so much talk about like what Dan Walker has been at all over getting back into the lineup I think their de-tackles have played really well Landon Jackson as a defensive tackle conversion guy I think has actually been pretty solid for them he was the one who I think forced the the strip sack against Drake May last week and then their edges are freaks man they've spent so long trying to be like oh we're gonna have all these long 265 pound guys and really other than Greg Rousseau not many of them have been like difference makers but Bradley Chubb is awesome and for a rookie who's off your bench TJ Parker I think they're going to have a lot of fun and I think they're going to I think it's been really good for them so I love what they are trying to be up front where it's a lot of we're choking the pocket we're making sure we're getting uh setting the edge like I think they've done really well there the back end they've had to simplify it for these guys and I think that you're seeing it because it's just not a good group right now especially with Christian Benford out and I think a big thing that stuck out to me especially in this last game against the Patriots when they play all their zone stuff anytime they get like three by one or anything like that the backside corner is locked in man coverage and they're just saying hey we don't want you seeing anything we don't want you giving up air just press him and get hands on and same thing with ever whoever the backside like flat defender is they're just like run straight to the back hug him do not let him out of the backfield and I think that can work against certain teams I think if we're going to spin it forward to this week against the Rams if that's Devontae Adams on the backside if that's Kyron Williams out of the backfield buddy I don't know I think the Rams probably have a pretty good matchup in that sense
Speaker 1I mean they were struggling last week in one-on-one situations against the Patriots corners and Matt broke off I think it was Ibnosun on like a deep inbreaker and the separation he creates at the top of that route it's like that's Matt Collins if that's Puka or Devontae Adams I think it becomes even uglier when I went back and watched it disappointed it's probably too strong a word I was really curious about what a Jim Leonard defense would look like and when you look at and the front multiplicity and variability obviously has been tons more than it was last year guys are lining up in different places that were slanted and they're not going to landing the front we're doing it's just more alive up front than it was in previous iterations of this defense but on the back end it's been a lot of zone coverage it's they're not blitzing very often like they're sending a decent amount of simulated pressures which I think we should have assumed that Jim Leonard did a ton of that when he was at Wisconsin it's a huge part of his background but it's all just a little bit more boring than I thought it was going to be like do you think that's fair like overall like when I watch it it's all it's all just a little bit more boring than I thought it was going to be and that's fine you know it's all just a little bit you can live that way but the things about this defense that have been exciting to me are solely rooted in personnel like when I watch this group Walker and Rousseau is what really jump out to me just how they're playing on an individual level and I just thought overall there would be a little bit more oomph and a little bit more life to some of the stuff that they were doing with Jim Leonard than there has been so far is that unfair
Speaker 3I am surprised that they are not bringing quite as much pressure and they're like middle of the pack in terms of blitzing but I did think that they would hire because when Jim Leonard the last time we saw him really call a defense was was Wisconsin and they were throwing those linebackers at people all day and granted it was Leo Chanel and Jack Sanborn who are NFL players at the college level so maybe that's why you think you can get away with it more and these are our Bills linebackers who are they're a little bit smaller Terrell Bernard and Dorian Williams are not going to blow anybody up they're not going to move running backs and so maybe that's part of it but I did think that there would be a little bit more of that the coverage stuff I'm at least willing to give them a little bit of benefit of the doubt just because I think that this is still not a very talented secondary outside of um obviously especially with Christian Benford now not playing that
Speaker 2was going to be my question is do you think Jim Leonard trusts his guys to hold up if he tries to play it that crazy
Speaker 1no I would clearly not and I think that's a fair place to land right now with the way that the corners are playing and and the Bills defense has been consistently pretty mediocre on the back end so far this year anything else Derek about this matchup specifically that you think is worth paying attention
Speaker 3to uh in terms of Rams offense Bills defense I do I do actually and I want to flip it back to uh the other side of the ball here with the Rams offense when they've been elite at their best Matthew Stafford is winning MVPs it's because they've been able to stay out of the pure drop back passing downs and that to me is not necessarily that Stafford can't see it it's just that this is an offensive line that is not very good in pure pass protection spots and Stafford can't move so he's going to stay out of the pure drop back passing downs he's going to stand on his spot and if he's crowded he's going to throw it and it's going to lead to some interceptions and I think we've got a couple of stats that really back up that that's been more of an issue for them this year than it it really was at any point last year the Rams last season had 22 drop backs of second and 11 or longer it was the lowest in the NFL by five they already have 13 of those this season through four games it's tied for the third most in the NFL and that extends to third down on third down they've had 15 drop backs of or last year in 2025 they had 15 third down drop backs of at least 11 yards to go lowest in the NFL again this year they have 10 like they are almost there through four games and you are just and what's funny is normally you would think that's like oh well maybe the run game kind of fell away and that's been more of an issue for them it's really not the run game is almost as successful and consistent as it was last year it's penalties penalties are killing them and some of their first down pass stuff is not as good because Pukunukua has been hurt and Terrence Ferguson's hurt now and they can't boot as much as they used to because I think they're worried about Stafford moving and So some of the layers of stuff that was easy for them of getting into or getting away from pure pass stuff, they've struggled with that this year. And you're seeing it. And that's where that's where the Stafford mistakes come from. The interceptions, the bad misses, stuff like that.
Speaker 2It's funny to think that we're heading into week five, and I don't think we could possibly guess at what the Rams actually want to be because Puka got healthy just in time for them to be down two tight ends last week. I rewatched the Eagles Rams game and like seven snaps in. I was like, holy shit, has this all been shotgun? They ran like 87% of their snaps out of the gun last week because they had to switch it up without their tight ends. I guess that's the reason.
Speaker 1But what I've come away thinking about the Rams over the first month is that when this team was at its best last year, there were so few moments, so few games where they weren't the ones consistently dictating the terms of how things were going to go. And some of that is staying in the proper down and distance. It's like Derek was talking about, like when you're constantly in third and two, third and one, you can lean into under center play action stuff there where you're very rarely in pure pass. You can be the one that's dictating terms. I think this offense relies on that because of who the tackles are, because of who Stafford is at this point in his career. And when there's still a good offense, right, they're top 10 in virtually every single metric, but you feel the inconsistency because they're just playing the games purely on their terms less often than they were for. The entirety of last season.
Speaker 3And I'm willing to buy that they can get back there, right? Like when Puka Nekua comes back, like when Puka Nekua, I think ramps up because I do think last week he doesn't look fully like 100% like Puka Nekua. But if a month from now he does, yeah, I bet the Rams can do a lot of the stuff that they want to again. But until we get there, there's going to be a little bit more herky jerkiness.
Speaker 2I don't know what Colby Parkinson's status is for this game, but if he can play and I know Terrence Ferguson had to be moved to IR, which is a bummer. But if he can play, I don't know. If he can play, then the Rams would have their choice of their top four receivers because Jordan Whittington came back last week, too, or maybe it was two weeks ago, but he's back. He was back two weeks ago, but didn't play that much. He was still a little bit further down the depth chart. So you have your choice of your receivers and you do have three tight ends available to you. If if they have the full menu of who they want to put out there available, I'm just curious to see what it would look like, because like I said, I just I don't think they've been able to call it the way that they would prefer really to this. Point in the season. I don't say that to make excuses for them. And to your point, they've still been a successful offense for the most part. It just doesn't look as beautiful as it does when your quarterback's playing like an MVP and Stafford hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't he hasn't been on that level. And to Derek's point about what this looks like, I couldn't believe it when I looked it up. And again, so and I know they were playing in the rain, but like so many either miscommunications or outright drops like him and Devante Adams haven't other than that giant. Game like haven't consistently been on the same page. He has thrown five interceptions so far this year when throwing the ball 16 plus yards downfield in the like 16 plus air yards. He threw one interception on those types of throws all last year. So like you, it's really obvious that even this offense, for the most part, is moving the ball and scoring points. Still, it's it's a far cry from what we got used to last year, at least to this point.
Speaker 1Oh, they're just so inconsistent. They still have not. Found their footing in any way. And the other number I'd throw out again, just trying to paint a picture of the gap between what we saw from them last year and what we've seen from them this year. When this offense has been rolling 2021 Super Bowl year last season with Stafford winning the MVP, they've been one of the best teams in the league against the Blitz. It's always it's a good bellwether, honestly, for how healthy the offense feels overall this year. Super small sample. We're throwing out constantly at this point in the season. Stafford negative point two seven EPA per drop back. Forty two percent success rate. Nineteen. Half thirty nine with three interceptions against the Blitz so far and open to the idea of that getting better over an entire season. But again, if you're trying to figure out, like, why doesn't I quite feel the same offensively for the Rams as it did last year? I think there are a lot of different things you could point to. Let's go to the other side of the ball. Derek, the number one thing you're looking for when the Bills have the ball in this game, just based on what you've seen from Buffalo over the first month is what?
Speaker 3I'm a little worried about the offensive line against the front like the Rams have like there, obviously. You know, they're missing Myles Garrett, but it is still a very, very good Rams front even without him. And I think this Bill's offensive line is not quite playing to the level that we have seen from them, especially, I think, in pass protection. Obviously, the first two weeks running the ball, they were unbelievable. But the run game has changed a little bit because of some of the ways that they're doing things. And I just think that like Osiris Torrance, I thought looked a little bit lost last week. And then the big one to me, Dion Dawkins just does not look like a set it and forget it sort of left tackle. Like, I think that you're just. He's trying to jump on guys a little bit more, and it's losing him reps immediately. There were a couple of times where Gabe Aukus was just blowing him up last week. And that's that's kind of what Gabe Aukus does. But guess who can do that?
Speaker 1The Rams. Look at this man just twisting this into Gabe Aukus propaganda. You're not going to hear any argument from me. He always knows where he's trying to get to.
Speaker 2Gabe Aukus is firmly on the short list of guys I get excited to see on my TV screen as far as the rookies go.
Speaker 3I know my spot. I can find the corner three with my takes. And and but again, the Rams guys can do that. Byron Young can do that to you. Josiah Stewart can do that to you. Like, I just think that I think that they're going to have a little bit of issues in terms of the pure pass protection stuff. And I think if you were on the bill side, the thing that you would really, really be hoping for is, OK, the Rams are playing a little bit more man coverage this year. Let's have DJ more out there. It gives us a chance against man coverage, and it bumps all of our other wide receivers down the totem pole to where they can face some potentially lesser Rams DBs in terms of that mold. Well, if DJ Moore is not going to play, and that seems pretty uncertain, and Trent McDuffie is just going to go get to man up your best guy. It's really hard for me to see how the bills guys separate consistently in this
Speaker 1game. I mean, even if DJ Moore is going to play like that, that's not really what DJ
Speaker 2Moore is. DJ Moore in a shoulder harness going against Trent McDuffie doesn't sound like an advantage for the bills. No, so especially
Speaker 3not with how he's playing this year. McDuffie, that is.
Speaker 1That's what I mean. This version of Trent McDuffie against DJ Moore, even at 100%. Like, DJ Moore is not some separation-creating man coverage beater. Like, that's never been who he is. And so I think overall, those matchups on the outside very much favor the Rams. I'm curious what the approach is for Buffalo offensively in this game, because you look at what they did last week. We mentioned it on the recap show. Very little, like, super heavy personnel compared to what it had been over the first few weeks. I think Joe Brady came out and said that part of that might have been because DJ Moore got hurt mid-game, and he was the sole receiver. And some of those 13 personnel looks.
Speaker 2He very coach. He coach spoke his way through it, but he said he was like, last week's game was weird. And, you know, part of the plan changed when DJ Moore got hurt. And you took the words right out of my mouth when we talked about it. It's like, if DJ Moore is unavailable, wouldn't you look for more opportunities for Dalton Kincaid to be your guy as a pass catcher instead of running 17 routes in a game?
Speaker 1I think the thought of who needs to play the one receiver role in 13 personnel is just anybody. That is what I would guess. Pop whoever you want out there. Like, the amount of Kanata, Mumfield, Xavier Smith snaps, Tutu Atwell snaps that we've gotten out of those looks from the Rams over the last couple of years.
Speaker 2Like, it could truly be anybody that you want. I haven't checked the numbers this year, so it might be different, but I'm pretty sure last year, Mumfield was the Rams' top guy in 13.
Speaker 1That's because the other guys were getting breathers when they were in that look.
Speaker 2And so the idea, so, I mean, the Bills are second in the league in 13 personnel snaps right now. They're the only team that's been in that look. That's really even in the Rams' zip code. They were in seven last week. And if DJ Moore being hurt is the reason why they ditched it, that's just kind of wild to me. Like, for every reason that you just said. So I'm curious to see if they maintain that. Because it looked too good to completely scrap it, no matter who's available.
Speaker 1Again, we could say some million things about every single stat we're going to mention. Small sample, but 16 dropbacks out of base personnel for the Rams this year. They've been good on. And those 16 dropbacks, I still, if I were building a plan for the Bills, getting those three guys out there, making them play with bigger bodies and seeing if I could both run the ball downhill and throw the ball against those looks, that's probably what I'd be trying to lean into if I were Buffalo.
Speaker 3That is 100% what I would be trying to do. And I will say one interesting thing there. The Rams will play even out of base personnel. A lot of like the 6-1 fronts, they'll put Spates on the line or something like that and have Landman just be a solo guy. So that does kind of feel like a decent answer if the Bills are going to play a lot of those five-man services. And just spread stuff out. But we'll see how it goes.
Speaker 1All right. We're going to take our first quick break and then come back and spend a little time in the danger zone. We trotted this out, I think, heading into week three, right? That sounds right. Yeah. Where we spent a little bit of time with teams that circling the drain might be strong, but should be feeling an increased sense of urgency. And to be clear, the team that we're going to talk about. That is living in the danger zone right now. We were going to do this before they had the last couple of days that they had before Lane Johnson retired, before Cam Juergens got traded. We were already going to talk about the fact that it seemed like this Eagle season was on life support. It doesn't feel less like that now.
Speaker 2I was so proud of us for trotting this takeout on Tuesday morning. Like, yeah, hey, Eagles are two and two, but we need to be talking about this. And. I mean, two hours after our first production call of the week, Lane Johnson retired. was like all right well this is hardly a hot take anymore and then they traded cam jurgens so yeah uh it happens when you record the show on thursday but i mean it is it's still a point worth making even if it's not a hot take anymore
Speaker 1yeah it's everything that's happened doesn't make this conversation less relevant it makes it potentially even more relevant if you guys want to hear like a breakdown of the jurgens trade specifically what it means for philly what it means for baltimore dionte and i spent a lot of time digging into that on yesterday's show uh just why the eagles would be willing to do this in this moment i think it's pretty self-explanatory it's a fantastic return on a guy who wasn't playing very well has some injury concerns and is making a decent amount of money for the ravens it's a we're trying to save our season because our offense is playing at a really high level we need a center i get it from both sides even if it's an overpay what we didn't really do on that show because it the where it fell in the news cycle and the fact that the jurgens trade happened right before we started recording i want to take a minute just to talk about lane johnson and lane johnson's career before we dig into the current state of the philadelphia eagles because this is one of the best players of his generation at any position and i think just a little bit of lane johnson career celebration is worth it before we dig into everything else we want to talk about
Speaker 2here it's weird to do it in the middle of the go-go-go cycle of getting ready for the upcoming weekend but it yes i mean this is a this is a no doubt instant hall of famer i was thinking about this people were talking about this and i was like oh my god this is a no doubt instant hall of people were talking about it on social media i mean in the pantheon of offensive linemen like right tackles potentially probably the best ever
Speaker 1yeah i'd have to go back and look at the actual list but certainly in the conversation and i think did a lot to reframe what we how we see right tackles how we compensate right tackles how we talk about right tackles the closing gap between how we value you guys at that position i mean for a long time he was treated as an outlier contractually go ask mitch about it and how pissed off he was the fact that they treated lane as an outlier
Speaker 2contractually when i started actually lane's draft was my first draft covering the nfl number four overall pick in 2013 day one starter you know all the accolades five five all pros one both that was on both of philly's super bowl teams when i started covering this even in 2013 it was still like ah he's probably got to be a right tackle in the nfl though like he's not he's not because jason peters was there no no no i just in general in football it was still very much oh yes that's how we talked about right tackles yes like oh like he's great but he's got to play right tackle in the nfl because he's lesser you know or like he's not the athlete or or whatever it might be he doesn't have the traits to play left tackle lane johnson and he has more traits than any tackle in the last 20 years it's it's not it's not all him other guys were part of it but like he was at the forefront of this surge of right tackle being valued and you could be arguably or definitely the best offensive lineman in football and play right tackle like as recently as like 2013 it wasn't always viewed that
Speaker 1way okay everyone assumed he would just move over to the left side when jason peters moved on that just never happened because it doesn't have to happen we would do this because you typically leave left tackles on an island more than you leave right tackles that that just the construction of your offense the eagles did not do that and i think that if you're trying to articulate the greatness of like what may lay johnson such a special player you could be arguably or definitely the best offensive lineman in football and play right tackle i think when you're comparing him to the best left tackle of the past 10 years a guy like trent williams we talk about this all the time if i showed my wife clips of trent williams like as a run blocker she would very easily be able to understand why trent williams was like a special player but because lane's greatness manifested so much in past protection it was just a quieter version of utter complete and consistent dominance and it's just like i don't know if i'm going to talk about it in the future but it's just like i don't know if i'm going to talk about it in the future but it's just like i don't know if i'm going to talk about it in the future but it's just like i had such a great conversation with jordan mylotta at training camp this year and we were talking about the new offense and what the new offense was asking of them and he was telling me just about talking to lane about the fact that they had a little bit more help and that there are times where the guard would slide their way and they were just like holy shit you can do this this is something you can do in an nfl offense because for years and years and years they and especially lane were just asked to be on an island constantly like what they were asking him to do within the offense the offense could be what it could be because of what you could put on lane johnson he was a singular player in a lot of ways specifically at that position and i think we just didn't talk about it or notice it often enough because again his version of being great was just a little bit quieter and a little bit less flashy than some other offensive linemen
Speaker 3well and it's how often do we talk about with offensive linemen the best thing that you can do as an offensive lineman is to be on the offensive line and to be on the offensive line and to be on offensive linemen during the game is that nobody even thinks about you being there and lane johnson is the most you just kind of forget that anything is even happening on the right side because he's never giving up pressures never giving up sacks like he just he was an incredible model for consistency and dave i'm glad you said 2013 was your first draft that was my first draft doing any of this stuff and i remember like so lane johnson for the entirety of the time that i've been doing this job it's been him and trent williams for like if i was doing the all derrick career team those are the tackles and so the fact that one of them is now is now gone is is really sad because he truly was a really special player for a long time
Speaker 2math is not my strong suit it's why i one of the reasons i wanted to pursue a career in writing but i did some quick math on just what lane johnson did over the course of his career so just shy of 12 000 career snaps 6 500 pass blocking opportunities five career pressures allowed so i averaged that out by a per game basis a pressure allowed every 22 pass blocks yeah it's ridiculous but then i was curious too 40 percent robert of his career pressures allowed came in the first three years of his career so from 2016 to 2026 he was allowing a pressure every 30 pass block opportunities which like you know an offensive tackle it might be 30 and 35 opportunities a game so over the course of his career depending on whether you want to do all 14 years or just the last 10 he was at he was allowing an average between one and two pressures a game for 14 freaking years dude and then if you want to do sacks 33 sacks allowed in 188 games do the math depending on when you want to start over the course of his entire career he was allowing a sack every five or six games and again 11 of his 33 sacks allowed came when he was a rookie so if you just nix out the rookie year and go by the other 13 years of his career he was allowing a sack every eight games for 13 years it's absolutely incredible a singular career and one other thing i wanted to say because you know the circumstances of this suck obviously like you know he's he's long been a mental health advocate he stepped away i think it was in 2021 for a few games yeah
Speaker 1i think yeah yes i can't remember the exact circumstances it had something to do with the medication he was on some of the things that
Speaker 2they were dealing with but yes obviously dealing with something very serious and much more than football and the idea that he would be stepping away for something that it wasn't incredibly critical remember this is a man who played through a torn abductor when the eagles had a shot to win the super bowl in 2020 i think it was 2022 season he played through a torn abductor in the playoffs just to give you an idea of whatever he might be dealing with so i just i wish him the best on a personal level and obviously the timing sucks but to like to question what lane johnson is all about over it just off imagine how hard that
Speaker 1decision must be yeah to walk away from not only your you're the locker room your teammates but to walk away from a place where i assume you're the locker room you're the locker room you're the locker room you're the locker room there's a comfort there's a familiarity there's a purpose like i can't even imagine how difficult that decision was and everything about this both the lane johnson element of it and just the fall out and kind of the the eagles and the way that they've reacted to it is just such a reminder that these are people and i'll say i'm guilty of this sometimes where i think we can talk about football on a schematic level and they can be x's and o's on a chalkboard and we kind of remute remove the humanity from it a little bit too often but the guy that i really was paying attention to over the last 48 hours is jordan mylotta i mean jordan mylotta is living the will smith living room meme right now yeah i mean he's been the guy that that that entire group was together for years and years and years land dickerson's hurt right now lane johnson just retired cam jurgens gets traded and they asked him yesterday about the jurgens trade and he talked about how after they heard about it they both like shared a moment they cried he they asked him like you know have his lane moving on is that made you think about how long you'll play and he's like yes but at this point like i can't think about that something i gotta put in the background i have to be the one who helps turn this thing around and so i just the entire on multiple different levels i think the human aspect of this has been front and center in a way that we don't always spend a lot of time focusing on but probably
Speaker 2should mylotta and dickerson were the newcomers to this thing too like what what feels like yesterday you know it feels like yesterday that i was like holy shit this jordan mylotta guy is really good where did he come from he's like jesus and now yeah he's him and i mean and dickerson's obviously not available right now so among guys that can play he's the last one and i think that's really
Speaker 1important place to transition here it really does feel like we're moving to a different era it really does feel like this era of philadelphia eagles football like just think about how we defined this team the year they won the super bowl think about the personalities the players the play style that really dictated how we thought about the eagles over the last four or five years jason kelsey's gone lane johnson's gone landon dickerson is hurt aj brown is no longer here it really does feel like we're moving into a different place and i don't know what that means for the rest of this season i said yesterday and i maintain i don't think the cam jurgens trade is a signal that they're it's a fire sale like i wouldn't be calling about quinion mitchell and cooper dejean like that that's not what this is i think it was a deal that was too good to pass up but on the offensive side of the ball it really does feel like we could see this group potentially continue to spiral over the course of this season and that was the conversation we were going to be having on the offensive side of the ball and i think that's what we're going to be having on in this segment specifically even before things like the cam jurgens trade and so i i'm i'm in a spot right now where i think this could get pretty ugly over the course of the year and i'm not sure what salvages it over the
Speaker 3course of this season i think it's going to get very ugly because like and i think from a what they want to be standpoint they already wanted to be a different era of eagles football going into this season you know stoutland being out of the building they bring in sean manion to run a different kind of offense than they'd brought before aj brown is out of the building like they already wanted to be something else but then you get some of the other injuries lanes retiring and i think the cam jurgens trade to me is not fire sale but it's kind of an admission of like okay us trying to change it this year we just got to like kind of start over fresh on this side of the ball and i think that that's kind of where they're headed and i think it's going to make for a very tough season this year because i think it was already going to be difficult trying to get you know new system these guys are learning how to be more wide zone all that stuff well now you're doing it with jordan mylotta is is the only good guy they wanted out there and you know tyler steen was a starter coming into the year but i think he's been very up and down but otherwise it's a lot of young players it's a lot of guys who are supposed to be depth pieces for them and they don't have any of the pass catchers like healthy and available that they want to like fix this thing like devonta smith's been banged up dallas goddard's not been out there like it's it is harder to see the light at the end of the tunnel than you would want for a team that is four weeks into this new thing
Speaker 2so i have a couple thoughts i can't go i can't go all the way there with y'all although it does it does remind me of 2024 for the wrong reasons because remember 2024 they went down to tampa and got the shit beat out of them going into their bi-week they got healthy on the week off they retooled and they only lost one more game the rest of the way but lane didn't play that game in tampa and neither did devonta smith or aj brown and so like you had all this room for optimism like we're gonna get healthy three of our absolute best players are gonna be back and that made all the difference in the world what are those reinforcements like they it's devonta it's devonta smith and that's not enough that's not enough not nearly enough okay i will say this though devonta smith dallas goddard i think it goes underrated that zach bond didn't play against the rams the other day i don't think the eagles are gonna be like i don't think they're gonna spiral into being terrible at least not without more injuries coming but and i was the one fighting for the eagles at the table heading into the season i think i thought they had super bowl potential and i think they had super bowl expectations even if i don't think the eagles are gonna be terrible that ship has sailed for me like the idea that they are on that level it's it's it's over and i i did i definitely didn't expect to be there in week five i think this team could mess around and and flirt with 500 or be over 500 depending on a few variables but that even if you disagree the fact that that is what i think they're capable of it i mean it's it speaks to how off the rails this season has already gone because we had a fight about whether they belonged at our table of super bowl contenders and that seems laughable right now i
Speaker 1right and maybe this is reacting too much to what the last couple weeks have been like they almost beat the rams but the rams tried to give them that game like a half dozen times and they still couldn't win i honestly i think about the state of the offense right now the fact that the rams are not going to be able to win the game the offensive line is going to be what it is for as excited as i am to watch willie lampkin play nfl football i'm not sure that's enough for the eagles offense looking like a buttoned up put together unit over the course of the season if i had to bet on it right now it's october 8th i think i would depending on the odds you gave me i would be more apt to bet on the eagles to have a top 10 pick than i would be for them to
Speaker 2be a playoff team top 10 top 10 means seven wins or less just just making sure you're aware
Speaker 1the offense is unwatchable and the defense has been fine like fine we thought the defense might be one of those like you season changing units they've been
Speaker 2disappointing but there's still reason to think that they could be better
Speaker 1but let's just say they're finished as the ninth best defense in the league and the offense is bottom eight at best over the course of the year that's a team that wins seven games and picks
Speaker 2ninth in the draft it's on the table which i did not see coming obviously and and i would have i would have felt comfortable saying all of this stuff if lane johnson still played for the eagles and so that just exacerbates it even more
Speaker 1you have this tension with the eagles building and you've seen it over the last 24 hours howie roseman can operate with as much patience and distance from what's happening as he possibly wants if the eagles win six games this year which they'll probably win more than that they already have two wins howie roseman's not losing his job he can trade players and i know cam jurgens is not was not playing well but just in a vacuum he can trade players for 2028 picks because he knows he's going to be here the coaching staff doesn't have that luxury and so that that tension to me is
Speaker 2interesting to say the least we talk in memes too often but like the meme of the person drowning and they just get a high five like that's nick sirianni like howie roseman's like we've got two ones and i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god i'm like oh my god
Speaker 1as much as he can
Speaker 2let's stick with
Speaker 1a little danger zone talk here uh and talk about other uh let's call it interesting coaching dynamic in the nfl right now came out today curious how you want to frame this came out today that let's call it this the broncos are going to have a more collaborative process with the way that they're calling plays on sunday against the chargers and moving forward meaning that sean payton is going to be more involved in the game than they're going in what that looks like uh after a month of getting this from davis webb not even a month it took less than a month for sean payton to say you know what this wasn't a good idea i'm going to be the play caller
Speaker 2again if i had said that to you in may like if we had made the joke in may that sean payton would take play calling back less than a month into the season we would have been like ah that's a little too glib like be realistic don't be don't be a jerk if if it happens it'll happen later in the year like that would have felt too knee-jerk and reality is less less than a calendar month the season started on september 13th
Speaker 3that they couldn't get to halloween before sean payton was like i gotta take it back and then you know they didn't say that he's immediately taking all of it back but the fact that he's gonna have more thumb on the scale to me means that like it's his offense again
Speaker 1what they the some of the messaging was that davis webb's still going to be really involved in the like the process and everything else yeah he's the offensive coordinator of the team of course even if he wasn't the play caller he has a huge hand in the game planning like that outside of getting fired i would assume that he would continue to have a huge hand in the game planning listen this is davis webb's fault when you're looking at your play sheet you have to pick the plays from the section of the play sheet that say the quarterback actually throws the ball if you're not going to do that then you're just it's a recipe for disaster the
Speaker 3the line that the section that is four lines long in the whole the whole dinner menu of plays there's four lines at the bottom
Speaker 2i was joking with y'all during the production meeting like i don't even know i don't know how much i could have gleaned from the 49ers defense against denver because like the open receivers were there like i don't know the the the right plays were called the good plays were called the balls weren't thrown so yeah i don't know what this is going to do the question i wanted to ask you is in a world where josh allen doesn't lose his mind and the bills don't turn the ball over five times in the divisional round of the playoffs let's say the bills win that game do you think that this happens or do you just like let davis webb leave because like to me this this whole thing feels like a symptom of being that agonizingly close where you're like one freak injury away from playing in the super bowl probably and so like that that need to hold on to everything that you can just overtakes everything else but but that wasn't the status quo though he wasn't the play caller like it feels like but like if you fall two games short of the super bowl instead of one you say it would anybody leave that wants to leave well not not we'll let anybody leave but like if somebody comes calling about davis webb and you lose the divisional round you're like okay that's that's probably for the best and like good luck to you instead of being like hey man we were we were right there because like what other reason would you do this for that was what i always thought it was about i don't really understand it even from that perspective
Speaker 1because it's this happens like if you have a good team and you win a bunch of games and you have coaches on your staff that are lower level guys they're going to get hired away to get some of these roles and so the idea that we had to give davis webb play calling so he wouldn't get hired away and be the play caller somewhere else isn't the entire point of having sean payton as your head coach so you don't have to worry about this shit well yes but you
Speaker 3know what's funny now that i'm thinking about it sean payton forever had an offensive coordinator that wasn't going anywhere pete carmichael was his offensive coordinator forever in new orleans and was never leaving and so there's some amount of like he's used to that but
Speaker 1davis webb wasn't the offensive coordinator last year right joel lombardi was the offensive coordinator last year davis was the quarterbacks coach the idea the idea that like we have to elevate our quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator in order to not lose him it why like what is the reason for that i
Speaker 2think he was yeah he was past game coordinator too just for the record my god we're happy i remember we were in indianapolis when it came down that this was going to happen and in the moment we were all just like okay a y and b how long do you think that's going to last and like i said to be proven right this quickly like uh the truth is stranger than fiction you know what i mean like i whole thing felt unnecessary and i mean maybe it'll help hopefully it helps yeah sean payton's just
Speaker 1gonna call the plays where the quarterback throws the ball and that's gonna change everything that's all you really need to do all right let's take one more quick break and then come back and hit one thing from a couple more of these week five matchups i'm gonna move through these pretty quickly one thing from ravens falcons that i want to focus on it's pretty simple can you stop the run if you're the ravens you look at what the falcons have done over the last couple weeks right now atlanta leads the league with a 51.1 percent rushing success rate per next gen they've done what they've wanted on the ground it's been absolutely incredible bijan has been phenomenal we talked a lot about him yesterday with me and dionte just sitting with the falcons as being one of the coolest surprises of the season so far the ravens their approach to run defense this year has really jumped out to me just in the sense of what jesse minter has been trying to do they've been comfortable playing base to 12 personnel consistently which is going to be a lot of what they're going to see against atlanta this weekend so i expect to see a decent amount of that overall the ravens have just been willing to play with heavier boxes than winter was playing with last year the i think some of that is dictated by the teams they're playing against if you look at the blocked box rate so just the sheer number of snaps the percentage of snaps where they have fewer defenders in the box than blockers it's not that far off from what the chargers were doing last year and so the fact that they've been in light boxes 12 percentage points less than the chargers were last year i think it's like 43 to 21 some of that is dictated by opponent and just the way the teams are playing you but overall the ravens have been willing to play against with heavier boxes than the chargers did last year and next gen this year is doing it's it's actually very cool though some of the stats are split up by actual run concepts and again small sample four games but the chargers are the ravens this year so far have been top four in success rate against zone runs specifically and obviously against the chart or against the falcons derrick that's where they're going to be seeing a lot of
Speaker 3that that's what the whole thing still is you know that's a lot a lot of what they do because that's what bashan robinson is good at he's just the way that he sees it the way that he cuts is really special i do think the ravens defense has a good chance for a few reasons like i think it's the way that some of their edges are playing in run defense is really impressive like zion young is really really good at that i think mike green has been better uh in that sense the linebackers especially trenton simpson has taken a massive step this year i think that he is playing really really well for them but to me the big difference from especially what i think we've seen from these last couple of games against you know where the the saints especially their defensive tackles don't really get up the field and they're not that explosive it's a lot of we're sitting on our spot where you know you're going to get four hands on us and we're going to try not to move that far and i thought the falcons did a really good job of handling that stuff the ravens guys will try to get up field a little bit more like travis jones can be explosive matabike you know he's still working into the lineup and stuff but he can do that and i just think that their run tools are better in terms of when they're firing linebackers how they're doing it so i think the ravens have a decent chance of getting up the field i think we'll still get you know three digits from bajon robinson i just don't know if it'll be 180 and three touchdowns the way that it's you know been the last couple of weeks
Speaker 1the other thing worth mentioning about this game it really doesn't seem like lamar is going to play and why i wanted to mention that i think it's two things one now we're in a spot where the falcons beat the lamar list ravens based on how atlantis played over the last couple weeks i don't think it would really shock anybody
Speaker 3right i'd pick them if lamar's
Speaker 2not playing which good opportunity to say my bad falcons i didn't know you were capable of this when i was making fun of you for playing three games in prime time or in a row we were
Speaker 1we already did that mea culpa when you were gone oh my bad we can continue to apologize for it but i think everyone has made that apology at this point i do want to say though i'm
Speaker 2just not to say that they can't do it and if lamar doesn't play i agree with derrick this is a very winnable game for atlanta i want to see what it looks like when you don't run for literally 200 yards yeah anything short of that well i think that's the
Speaker 1thing yeah can the can the ravens prevent them from running for 200 yards that's going to be the question on that side of the ball i just think it's worth mentioning lamar over the first four weeks of the season in my opinion was the best player in football the way that he was playing and the ravens have had a weird year like they shut it down at halftime essentially twice lamar missed the second half of last game like it jay flowers has been in and out of the lineup but just watching how lamar has been playing on a down-to-down basis it makes me sad that that's getting derailed in any way the hope is he misses a game or two comes back and continues to play at that level if that's the case then the ravens are ridiculously scary but if this ankle either because he's not 100 when he comes back or he's knocked out of the flow the way he was playing before he got hurt derails or affects the lamar jackson season that we were about to get with how how he was playing in a new offense that's like a tragedy because he's not 100 when he comes back or he's knocked out of the flow the i think over the first month of the year those first four games if you just watch him down to down the way he was playing the position he again had the game in the palm of his hand in the way it felt like he did in 2024 over those first four games
Speaker 3he's been sensational dude and i know that like zay flowers has been really good in the way that they've been scheming up zay flowers has been really impressive but it's the pass catching group is not like electric outside of that he was just making this work with matthew hibner's getting getting reps and like just all the other secondary receivers that they've had like these lamar jackson was truly playing on like a really really high level again and not a lot of it was as a design runner you know i think we came into the season being like how much are they going to do any of that it really has been him from the pocket dicing people up and so if he's going to miss more than a couple of games that is going to get a little bit dangerous i do have some faith though that i'm pretty bought in on the jesse minter defense and i do think that like the more they play the better they will be and there's a chance that they can just be really good for a month and win some games and keep them alive but i think to your point what you said what does lamar look like when he comes back that to me i think is the bigger question can they then can they survive
Speaker 1for three weeks i'm totally i would totally believe that he just looks the same he comes back he's healthy he looks as good as he did at the start because i think some of this is the offense declan doyle the way that zay is playing but i i just firmly believe that when he's at his best i think he's just the best player in the league and when we like the way that we saw him play in 2024 and the way we saw him play over the last month like i just think that's the best player in football when he's playing like that and so if he doesn't get back to that level in week six seven whenever again that's like a tragedy in my mind i still think the ravens will be very good i'm i think he probably can get back to that level but it's just at least worth monitoring and that the only reason i'm saying that is because of how scary good he was over the
Speaker 2first four games and he was hampered most of last year too and hopefully if if he needs to sit for a week or even two weeks to keep that from repeating itself by all means let's
Speaker 1get to one thing from raiders patriots derrick one thing you're watching raiders patriots lay it on
Speaker 3me yeah this is i'm looking at the man coverage from the patriots and now this is interesting they have been a defense that wants to do a lot of that but no christian gonzalez he did not play last week and i don't think carlton davis has been practicing uh much this week and so that's going to be an issue for them i still think that this is a lot of what they want to do and i think i'm kind of of two minds about how that's the raiders they don't have very many good man beating receivers but they have one who is really really difficult to deal with when brock bowers and they do a really good job of scheming him up whether it's putting him on stacks you know or as the second man in stacks so they can't get hands on him early they can do switchverts you know switch stem stuff where it's a little bit hard for the db to know exactly which way he's going to break and get him some open stuff and i think why that would be particularly i think good for the raiders potentially this week especially if gonzalez and carlton davis aren't going to play bowers proved last week that even against the longer corners like the legerious sneed he can still separate at the catch point and make plays the the patriots guys are small marcus jones is not big kindle vildor is not big and so if the carlton davis and christian gonzalez are not going to play i still kind of expect the patriots to do some of this because that's what they do and when you couple that with how well their edge guys crush the pocket it's kind of what i said with you know the rams game uh and the bills if you crush the pocket it's kind of what i said with you know the rams game uh and the bills if you pocket on Curt Cousins and you hit him, he's going to leave you some dicey ones, and I think you don't want to play zone against Kirk because he'll dice you up and so I think just how much they can get away with man I think that kind of decides how well this game goes for the Patriots defense
Speaker 2I feel like it's flying under the radar I think the Patriots defense is a step up from what it was last year I'm curious to see what this looks like I think it's more just
Speaker 1that they've maintained the level we saw in the final like four to six weeks of last season and that was my that was my question it's like was that just kind of a flash in the pan or were they going to carry that over and the fact that for the most part I think it's fair to say they have carried that over they've looked like that group again and I just wasn't sure if that was going to happen we see that all the time where we had these spikes in the back half last year look at the Saints defense like a top five unit in the back half of last year what has it been this year like there we have these kind of false signals all the time where all right is that was that real do we expect that to continue and for the Patriots I think that's exactly what's happened one of those
Speaker 3teams drafted Gabe Aukus and the other didn't I'm just saying spent a little bit of time
Speaker 1on Sicko Street before we get out of here we don't have to spend a ton of time on this but Colts Steelers both of these teams are two and two but the vibes just feel like absolutely rancid in both of these places Mike McCarthy coming out this week saying we got to clean the house up a little bit which is just the constant dialogue I'm having with my wife and then on the Colts side of it both of these teams and making the moves that are going to happen in the next couple of weeks I think that's going to be a lot of fun and I think that's going to be a lot of fun and I think that's going to be a lot of fun because they did a quarterback bringing back Rogers bringing back Daniel Jones coming off the Achilles you're really trying to thread a needle you're really trying to land a plane that is difficult to land where all these other things if they go right is this the right guy to kind of take us where we want to go to make it all come together and you watch both of these offenses and just how uninspired and really disappointed the Colts passing game specifically has looked and their returns have not been there like neither one of those plans is going to be a lot of fun working in the way that these teams would have hoped in the best case scenario and I think that you're really feeling that right now for both the Steelers and the
Speaker 2Colts I just can't think of a more sad place to be than like not bad but without like a truly high ceiling like I mean these teams are two and two they're capable I mean the Steelers beat the Bengals this year the Colts beat the Texans they're not bad football teams but where is this realistically going for either of them and that's just it's a it's a meh bland sad place to be in my opinion and it's hard to see
Speaker 3how it gets at least you know at least on the Steelers side like you have out of the four units in this game probably the only one that's like mildly above average in their defense you know their defense is solid but both of these offenses with Rodgers it's a week-to-week thing based on what does he want what is he willing to throw this week every now and then you get the games where he's willing to be a little bit more aggressive and he's willing to chuck it down the field or super well but those games are once every three games once every four games and then I think with the Colts we've seen like they can't be any of what they want to be because I don't think Daniel Jones can push the ball down the field and even if he could the one guy you wanted there to be able to do that stuff Alec Pierce is not healthy and so yeah when you're pushing the ball down the
Speaker 1field to Laquan Treadwell it matters a little bit
Speaker 3less it's just not the same it's not hitting the same when when you're throwing it to those guys and so I think the the Colts have just struggled to be the offense they want to be at all and then the it just feels like they're not going to be with with the the Steelers offense you're just kind of spinning the wheel and hoping you come up on a good thing
Speaker 2well maybe it'll come up good this week based on Sauce Gardner's play in London and I appreciate him saying he was embarrassed to watch the tape back because it was a it was a brutal showing for a guy that you just traded two ones for so curious hopefully he looks more like the sauce they traded for in this matchup I think that's probably if I
Speaker 1were I think the Colts situation is bleaker I think the Colts situation is bleaker I think the Colts situation is bleaker than what the current Steelers situation is yeah because the Steelers aren't pot committed to anything they're not no exactly the Steelers aren't committed to anything they you look at what the Steelers have done like the way that the offensive line is capable of playing the way the run game has looked the way that the defense looks like I still think I feel about the Steelers kind of the exact same way I felt about the Steelers coming into the year like I still think there's enough to be excited about across the board with some of the young pieces that if you're looking at this on a multi-year level I'm not I still have some hope about what this core can be for the Steelers and just with a different quarterback and just a different plan offensively I think that's necessary like Derek said I mean if you're going to have moments like the Bengals game where there's a few schemed up shots off play action where they're wide open and he's willing to throw them I think that coupled with the run game there is a path there I just don't know how willing they are to explore that path for the Colts that young core stuff is there's not the same sort of optimism like you don't have two first round picks from the last couple of games you don't have two first round picks from the last couple of games years you know you didn't have one last year you don't have one next year you're paying the quarterback over the next couple of years that this the regime is like running into a dead end like it just it really does feel like every fear you could have about this turning the wrong way for the Colts and the bets you made just not coming up in your favor is already happening and it's just going to leave the season feeling really lifeless and this group understanding that we've run out of road and it's time to start over and I don't even think it's too early to start framing their season that way
Speaker 2well when the expect when you need to reach the playoffs like I'll say it again both of these teams will probably have decent records like you know I mean the Steelers made the playoffs last year the Colts I'm less sure about sure okay even if that's true though I just there's talent here to win games on a week-to-week basis especially in the NFL I guess is my point but again when the when the mandate is to reach the playoffs for the first time in forever and this is what we've seen through the first month it's just it's hard to drum up much
Speaker 1enthusiasm yeah if I were a Colts fan I'd be pretty bummed out right now like to come down from what the first half of last season looked like to what the current version of the offense looks like with with Jones playing this way with Pierce banged up it's just we're living in a very different world for the Steelers we're living in the same world I guess I guess that's where I land with it for the Colts we've transitioned to a different place that is sad for the Steelers we're in a very similar place that is sad
Speaker 2I'm gonna be watching Mike McCarthy like a hawk this week after he had to apologize for what he called Aaron Rodgers well which yeah no apology necessary Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1was MFing him in the huddle no I know it's it's
Speaker 2great honestly I wouldn't have it any
Speaker 1other way all right let's talk about what we want to know coming out of week five in the NFL I'll start what I want to know coming out of Bears Packers the Packers offense was functional last week against the Bucs they wouldn't been they played against Atlanta and this happens where it's three weeks into the season we don't know that much about any of these teams the Falcons pass rush completely dismantled the Packers on Thursday night two weeks ago they couldn't operate as an offense Packers go out they get Lake and Tomlinson but beyond the improvements on the offensive line and it sounds like Kevin Zeitler is going to start for them this week at right guard not playing against the Falcons we didn't know the Falcons had the best pass rush in the league apparently and so last week with no new piece on the offensive line going against a different team the points weren't there because they shot themselves in the foot a couple times drops on third down fumble on the goal line but the offense could function again and so what does that look like a week later are we back in a place where you're getting enough pass protection where this isn't going to be a team that is just trying to keep itself from drowning over the course of the year I still have questions about the ceiling of this group and just what the Packers are going to look like over the course of the entire season but I think another week where you at least have a foundation you can stand on offensively that you showed last week that's what I'm paying attention to like what how where does the Packers offense land is it closer to the group we saw a week ago against the Bucks or are we still having some of the same concerns that we had against the Falcons
Speaker 3two weeks ago and I think that this is a defense where relatively it's not a pass rush that you're worried about Dennis Allen will throw good pressures and stuff at you but I do think that this if they're trying to not have to face the what the Falcons have been what the the Vikings have been like not having to face that and not having to face that and not having to face that style of defense uh and that good of a pass rush I do think that they have a chance to live I think this is also like this is a really good opportunity for Matthew Golden has shown some flashes the last few weeks and I do think that if they really want to get things going I think that they're going to have to get him unlocked probably down the
Speaker 1field Dave one thing or what do you want to know coming out of week five
Speaker 2in the NFL I want to know if the Minnesota Vikings can show me anything on offense in about as advantageous a situation as you could ask for and I know Justin Jefferson's health is iffy we'll see obviously would be a big help for them if he can play but after what we saw Atlanta do to the Saints Saints are 31st in the league in offensive DVO or excuse me defensive DVOA after what we've seen from the Saints I just need the Vikings to do anything on offense if I am going to believe that this 4-0 record which we hope is a 5-0 record for them is remotely worth trusting some some some history I wanted to look through Minnesota scored 86 points through four games it's the fewest by a 4-0 team since the 0-9 Broncos who conveniently enough started 6-0 and finished 8-8 that that Denver team was like I think top five in defensive DVOA they were like 20th in offensive DVOA it gave out over a long enough period of time it usually does it usually does so I went back and looked at a few more Arizona also started 4-0 despite a very low point total and I think that's a good thing for them they were last last in offensive DVOA in 2012. Fifth in defense, last in offense. They started 4-0. Do you know what their final record was? 5-11. Oh, man. So it can go real, real bad for you if you don't have something on offense, no matter how good your defense is. And one more, if you're a Vikings fan looking for hope, the 0-6 Ravens, best defense in the league by DVOA, started 4-0, went 13-3. Their offense was 14th. It doesn't need to be great. I need more than what you've shown. So that's what I'm watching in this game. Like, what does Kyler Murray look like? They're playing in a dome. We're not worried about the weather. Show me anything. Score a touchdown. That's what I want to know. Can you score a touchdown against the second-worst defense in the league?
Speaker 1Before the fourth quarter. Derek, what do you want to know coming out of Week 5?
Speaker 3Yeah, Titans-Texans. I just want to know if the Titans will push the ball down the field because it's the only way the Texans have lost any of their games this year is by teams beating them over the head with some of their explosive passes. But this is a Titans offense that 6.6 of their throws this season go beyond 20 yards. It is the second lowest in the league. I think only the Colts are below them. The Colts beat the Texans, but the Colts, if there's anything their passing offense can do, it's work that intermediate 11-20 yard area. I'm not sure the Titans do that as well as the Colts do. And so I just think that this is going to have to be a game where they prove to me that they can really push the ball down the field. They've been a good pass protection unit. This is a really tough test to see if that's real or not. And so I just think that this is going to have to be a you guys really need to push the ball down the field more than we've really seen from Cam Ward over the last 12 games, let alone just this season.
Speaker 1All right. That's all we've got for the Week 5 preview. If you're listening to this on the podcast, the Thursday Night Football Recap should be available. Bucks, Cowboys. If you're watching this on YouTube, it should also be available. I don't know why I made a distinction between those two things. If you are watching this on YouTube and you are new to the channel, which I assume a lot of you are, we would love it if you would like and subscribe. We're doing this all the time. There's plenty of stuff coming your way. So if you enjoyed this, I think you'll enjoy everything else that we're doing. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe, or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.
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