Speaker 1This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human. Football is the ultimate team game. On any single play, it takes all 11 guys to execute it successfully. And whether they're pounding the A-gap or taking a deep shot, the best teams win in multiple ways. That's why Bet365 is giving fans options all season long with their early bird special cash-out availability or early payout. Bet365 offers a bunch of different ways to play, whether it's boosted profits before the game or getting paid out when your team goes up big. There's no shortage of exciting options. Plus, you can cash out anytime. Bet365, where winning is everything. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Must be 21 plus and present in a state where Bet365 operates. Please gamble responsibly. Restrictions and terms and conditions apply. Void where prohibited. Download the app today. Welcome to NFL Daily where we're about a week or two away from taking away the play calling from myself and Nick Shook. I'm Greg Rosenthal. I'm here with the week five picks. First, D'Amico Ryans takes away the play calling from Matt Burke, the Houston Texans defensive coordinator. And then as we're taping on this day, we learned Sean Payton taking it away. We saw this coming in Denver that he wants to be the play caller, although they're trying to sell it. That he might not. We'll see if the Broncos come up in this show. Shook, I'm just joking around. I see that you are in a new location, a new house, a nice backdrop. And this nice backdrop is going to be the good luck charm, new house, new picks, and it's going to help turn our seasons around. We're both struggling. I end up at 1-1-1 last week because of a ridiculous push by the Chargers. I rewatched that game. There was about 16 different plays the Chargers made in the fourth quarter that we saw. They were outrageous, including a fourth down conversion. Herbert's falling down. They didn't make those plays Seahawks would have covered, and I would have turned it around. You had another losing week. But you know what? Like I said, we're turning it around this week. I'm going to give you the first overall pick, and I want to see how you are ready to start this new adventure in your new house.
Speaker 2Well, I'm hoping that the picks this week go better than some of the transportation of my items did because you can't really tell right now, but the LED lighting behind me was damaged. In the move, so I have to replace it. But hopefully we're going to go perfect, and there's going to be no damage at all this week. My first pick, I think you've chastised me in recent weeks for being a self-loathing Browns fan or something along those lines. I've heard it from many people. I'm going with the Browns plus one and a half at the Jets, and it's because I believe in the Browns to win straight up. That's not a taking the points total. In fact, it's the opposite, but based on what I saw from the Jets last week, which I think will be an anomaly in the larger picture, I feel good about the direction the Browns are heading. Of course, if you look at it from a fan perspective and you're a Browns fan, you say, well, they're on a three game winning streak. So, of course, this is the game that they lose to this Jets team, and that's fair to throw in there as part of the equation. But I feel confident that they're going to be able to go to New York and continue their momentum, and that's why with them, not as the favorite, I'm just going to pick them to win straight up here, and it's plus one and a half. So that really doesn't matter to me.
Speaker 1It makes sense. I do think the Browns are a little bit. Better than the Jets. I definitely have my questions about Deshaun Watson. Are the Jets defense going to be the team athletic enough, especially up front? You do have David Bailey who could take him down, but otherwise it's an older defense to kind of expose maybe Watson holding the ball. I did look at this game and think, oh, this is a bounce back game for the Jets. Now, the thing in your favor is the extra rest that Cleveland has. I'm always keeping an eye on that. On Thursday night football, we might get to a similar situation in a few minutes. And it just feels like to me these two teams aren't too far apart. They're close to even Jets are home. I can see them as a two and three team. I can see the Browns as a three and two team, but I get it. I have no problem with that. I'm going in a similar direction, which is I'm picking the team that's on a hot streak against the team that just statistically has not looked great. I'm taking the Bears minus one and a half in Green Bay. Always beware, you know, the slight road favorite. And that's what the Bears are here. But ultimately, look, the Packers actually started the week before, you know, the game before Saturday last week as the favorite in this game. And it flipped. And I saw a Bears fan asking like, oh, this must mean like they think Caleb Williams is coming back. It's like, no, dog, like they think your team stinks. The DVO way, just total efficiency. Packers 28th in offense, 24th in defense. Bears, one of the few teams that are top ten. In both offense and defense, Tyson Bajan is a factor that you have to be worried about against a blitzing frisky Packers defense. But I just love the weapons that the Bears have. Obviously, the ground game. But also, I think Luther Burden is playing well. Roma Dunzey coming off a good game. I think they'll be able to scheme up some open receivers. And ultimately, I am trusting in this Bears defense to just keep the score low enough for Ben Johnson to get it done. With his play calling.
Speaker 2But that's been one of the underappreciated storylines with this Bears, because we've talked about how Ben Johnson has won a game now with three different quarterbacks, and he must be quarterback proof. And that's all valid and everything else. But his defense has played well. Now, if in the larger picture, when we look at this in a postmortem perspective at the end of the regular season, we may look at this stretch and say, OK, that was misleading because of their three of their four games, three of them, two of them have come against pretty bad offenses in Minnesota. And the Eagles and they had the shootout in week one, obviously, against Carolina. And then they had that very lopsided game against the Jets, a team that I still can't really pin down. So is this fool's gold with this Bears defense? I don't know. And I don't really know that we're going to see it tested this week because despite the Packers finding more success in the ground against the Buccaneers last week, they're still a pretty lopsided offense. The reason I stayed away from this, Greg, is because it's a rivalry game at Lambeau and you don't have Caleb Williams. That is the reason.
Speaker 1Fair. But this matchup, which has a lot of heat, of course, after how it ended last year with with Ben Johnson kind of owning Matt LaFleur and that that whole back and forth, LaFleur fired, you know, like there was a real frostiness between the two. And I think it's worth remembering Matt LaFleur actually had good answers for Dennis Allen's defense for most of each of those games. They put up 400 yards of offense. They built a big lead in each game and then they blew it late. As you know, Matt LaFleur teams are accustomed to doing. My main takeaway, though, is about the Bears defense is like, you're right. And they're playing another bad offense this week. You know, they did go heavy personnel more last week and it was effective. They got rid of the ball more quickly and that was effective. They probably get Kevin Zeitler in as a starter on the offensive line. And the Bears defense has struggled more against heavy personnel. But I really think you got to beat the Bears defense with the running game. There were little signs. Last week, ultimately, I just think the Bears are a significantly better team than the Packers right now. I'm going to take them on the road. What is your second pick?
Speaker 2Yeah, I understand that rationale. I support it. My second pick, I'm going to take a hot team that, you know, when you see these lines from week to week, this is a week to week league and we get surprises every week. And if you want to look at my overall picks, just straight up record, you can. That's great proof of how this league is very unpredictable. But one team I still feel very confident in, despite them suffering their first loss last year, is the Las Vegas Raiders. They're going on the road. To face the Patriots, they're three and a half point underdogs. I'm taking them plus the points. I believe in Kirk Cousins. I know they don't run the ball that well. Maybe this probably isn't the week that that turns around, but maybe you can hope. And I still need the Patriots to prove to me that last week wasn't just the product of playing a division rival and playing inspired football. So I'm going Raiders, baby. I'm I'm on this bandwagon. I'm on this ship until it sinks. Maybe there will be a lifeboat left for me. Maybe there will be half a door and somebody won't let me on when there was clearly space for it. Like in Titanic, but I'm going with the Raiders.
Speaker 1Yeah, and like Titanic, you know, it takes a while to turn this ship around, but we're going to do it here in week two. I'm cautiously optimistic about the Patriots in general, but I definitely would be on the Raiders side. I don't want to be picking against my team. The three and a half does it. I think it should be two and a half. I think it should be one of those where it's two even teams, slight home favorite Patriots defense has been good. I think it's well coached. I think it's similar to the Raiders where on paper they have some holes, but I think they're schemed up pretty well. And so I think it's a it's a tight, close game. Christian Gonzalez has not been practicing again this week. It's just a massive, massive loss for the Patriots. And so, yeah, it's one where I think two even teams take the points. I like it. Okay, I have another game where we're just kind of picking the winner, at least I am here, and that is the Rams minus three on Monday Night Football. I'm sorry. Oh, oh, I went with my, you know, tiny table take on our preview show. Check that out as that the Rams offense was going to get it going. I I do think a big part of the Patriots figuring things out last week was a lackluster Bills defense that has a few good players, but is counting on the guys in the back end to do too much. You have the Rams coming home and playing indoors where I think they're. just going to be more comfortable. You get Jalen Watson back in the secondary. We don't know if Christian Benford is going to be back for the Bills. We don't know if DJ Moore is going to be back for the Bills. He's been out of practice. But either way, I look at the Bills offense and think, OK, are you going to keep up in a shootout? And you look at the great week win, all the credit in the world to them. But since then, you kill a dreadful Lions defense. Bills were great that day, but it's a truly awful Lions defense. And the last two, I just think up and down. I think it's a high scoring game. I think there's a lot of points, but three points is just not enough for me. If it was four, four and a half, maybe I stay away. But I think this is a game that's maybe in the high 20s or 30s where it's 35, 28, 35, 31 by the end. And that three points, not enough for a team in L.A. that I think is more balanced ultimately overall, because I think they have a better defense. I think they can win games in multiple kind of ways.
Speaker 2Yeah. And it's hard to figure out who the Rams are at this point in the season because they were without Pupinakua. Until last week, they missed him for the two weeks in between week one and week four. And they don't have Miles Garrett. And they also have their performances have just been very up and down. But I do believe that in the bigger picture, we're going to kind of toss last week's win out the door because it was kind of a gross day weather wise. I think at one point I watched Matthew Stafford get hit, go down to the ground, and then he comes up and there's just grass all over his helmet, not like chunks of grass, just blades. And that tells me that's a wet field and the footing is not great. They had a bunch of near misses that could have produced big plays. They could have swung the game in their favor a lot earlier than the way that they came back in the end. And so I feel like that's the anomaly in the larger picture. But because we are only one month in and the, you know, selection of evidence that we have to work with is, you know, very inconsistent. I have a hard time. Like I looked at this game and I was just like, I'm staying away from that because I could see it going either way. The one thing I do know is what you've already the point that you've already made, which is that that Bill's defense is not that good. And I think the Rams will probably capitalize on that, especially at home. But I need to I'm very cautious with them right now. I'm not putting anything on the Rams, you know, in terms of reputation as of now.
Speaker 1It's a little bit of a hunch and a little bit of belief that, yes, if you look at these two teams overall so far this season, I think they're pretty close to even. But I think there's a lot of reasons to believe the Rams will be better in this environment and that their defense overall. We'll see if Aaron Donald makes much of a difference, but that their defense overall, I just think presents more challenges, has more continuity and has way more talent than the Bill's defense. And especially if DJ Moore is not available, I just don't see where there's some huge difference here between the two offenses and the two quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford has to play better, can't keep making big mistakes. So we'll see on that one. What is your third pick? Are you debating between a few or you just got you got one nice and.
Speaker 2Yeah, because I made three and then I looked at them and I was like, I'm going underdogs across the board like I'm taking the points across the board. That feels a little strange. That's fine. Don't worry about it. It's everything's different. I think a layup exists in Broncos at Chargers, but I'm not going to go with a layup. I'm going to take a swing despite my poor record, despite my play calling duties being threatened. I'm going Saints plus two and a half versus the Vikings. Wow. I like the reason. The reason I'm taking this. Recency bias included, I believe, is that this is a Vikings team that has a fantastic defense, but I don't know how long they can continue to win with just their defense. Yes, the Saints got bulldozed by the Falcons rushing attack. Yes, Aaron Jones, you know, has the potential to run on them, but not at the level that Bajon Robinson and Brian Robinson did. And you can't tell me that a team that beat the Dolphins 15 to 10 with all due respect to the Dolphins and their, you know, slow, but, you know, promising process is going to hold the Saints to a low scoring output. Like, I think that the Saints. The Saints have an opportunity to win this game. It's going to be a challenge, but they need to bounce back eventually. And yes, offensively, they're going to, they're going to encounter some challenges against this Brian Flores defense. But I do believe that Tyler Shuck is one of those guys who's capable of getting the ball out on time in the face of pressure. And that could be where the scales tip in the favor of the Saints. So that's why I'm going plus two and a half Saints.
Speaker 1I like it just that they're at a bottom and the Vikings are kind of at a high and you'll do well historically of, of betting the bottom essentially, you know, teams in the NFL do bounce back. On a week to week basis. I do worry about them protecting Chuck in this game and recognizing the blitzes and he needs to throw more to the middle of the field. That's where you beat the Vikings traditionally. But I hear you that I think the Saints defense has a good comeback game. I think you're just going to see a much better effort out of a team that was embarrassed. If I had to choose a side on this one, I definitely would go Saints. So I'm with you there. I like it.
Speaker 2All right. I'm a fan too. And you know what?
Speaker 1Maybe it's a big day for America's tight end. Juwan. Johnson. It's funny because the Broncos minus three and a half. I love that. Broncos minus three and a half was the second game I wrote down. And the more I thought about it, the more I watched, I decided to stay away as well. So it feels weird. There's something, there's something about it. Charges at Owen for it's like I rivalry division game and Harbaugh owns Sean Payton, at least in the last two years, you know, they sat their starters in week 18 last year. But other than that, they won their last three games against the. The Broncos, they are so banged up though, that I, I couldn't get there going chargers certainly. I'm, but I I'm just, that's a stay away. I thought I was all in on Steelers minus two and a half in the mid off. I'm calling it, uh, Steelers Colts because they have the rest for TNF versus the London trip for Indianapolis. I also think that the way you beat the Steelers is with explosives. And the Colts are just not built to do that. So that's one option. And I'm thinking very strongly about it. I have not made my decision. The other one I really like is actually Seattle minus three against San Francisco. Now San Francisco is number one overall in DVO way by a decent amount. I just think about how this matchup, how Mike McDonald got hired in, in Seattle is for shutting down Brock Purdy when he was with Baltimore. I think of the way last year ended. They just embarrassed San Francisco two times in a row. And you can say, oh, well, this is a different 49ers team. That team was banged up. This team's pretty banged up too. And I know Seattle hasn't played its best game, but you're basically saying these two teams are even right now and we're in Seattle and the matchup problem. I really like the Seahawks in this game as well. I still have not made up my mind, which one I'm going to choose. I'm giving our listeners just a free extra pick for, for what they're, what it's worth. What do you think between these two? What do you think about these two in general? You don't have to choose.
Speaker 2I liked, I liked, I, when I looked at Seahawks centers, it was another divisional game where I was just like, stay away because I mean, they embarrassed them twice last year. I know, but, but every season is different and the Niners did just pass a test last week, which really impressed me, you know, the, the mental toughness they needed to overcome really bad offensive first half to be able to pull away and do it in their style. Um, and when it, when it comes to these two teams and the familiarity, I just, I worry about that. I also feel as though the Steelers with that extra few days of rest will bounce back. Um, I think that there's just a better team than the Colts, the Colts defense. I had to have very little respect for, uh, on a weekly basis and the last two games they've, you know, one, they, they beat the commanders, um, you know, overseas, but the commanders ended up playing with a third string rookie quarterback for the majority of that game, who did. And I think that's, I think that's a good thing. I think that's a good thing.
Speaker 1Chicago and the Rams, but because of the format, I'm going to go three and one or four. No, I'm, I'm, I'm calling it right here. Like it's happening. It's happening. I'm just saying, I'm just saying I will have to make one to make it our three. And that will be Pittsburgh minus two and a half. So that's why we banned ourselves from going in together.
Speaker 2But as my extra, my fourth, I am also taking Pittsburgh. And the last point I didn't make, but my extra speech have an extra. Apparently you can say whatever you want. It's a week. We can say 10 extras if we want. Only three count. The slam dunk point there for the Steelers is Daniel Jones has had a turnover issue. It's, it's reared in its ugly head again. And that Steelers front will create some turnovers after not getting after Deshaun Watson last week. They will get it right. They will create turnovers.
Speaker 1Yeah. I like that. You know, which game I took a little bit of a look at too was, was Miami again. You know, we might get chase and not Higgins or vice versa. We're not really sure they're at home against the Bengals. Six and a half feels like a lot to give the Bengals right now, but that was not
Speaker 2making it. That was a stay away for me because I was going to go Bengals. And then I was like, oh, they're playing in Miami and things get weird in Miami this time of year, especially for a team that's still trying to find a consistent rhythm, which is where I think the Bengals are offensively right now. The game, the other game I had my eye on giants plus three and a half at Washington.
Speaker 1Yeah. I thought you might go in that direction. It almost feels like they're begging everyone to take the giants in that game. But Jaden Daniels on his way back. We don't think Terry McLaurin is. Those are the type of extra. Injury nuggets you get on this pick show. In addition to some winners for week five, that's it from shook and I that's it from NFL daily for the pre week five slate of shows. Next time you will hear from us, Nick shook myself and Jordan Roderig will be recapping all the week five games. I cannot wait. It's a really fun Sunday slate of games, including that one in Tottenham. We'll see you then. Football is the ultimate team game on any single play. It takes all 11 guys to execute it successfully. And whether they're pounding the a gap or taking a deep shot, the best teams win in multiple ways. That's why bet three, six, five is giving fans options all season long with their early bird special cash out availability or early payout. Bet three, six, five offers a bunch of different ways to play, whether it's boosted profits before the game or getting paid out. When your team goes up big, there's no shortage of exciting options. Bet three, six, five. We're winning is everything. Gambling problem. Must be 21 plus and present in a state where bet three, six, five operates. Guaranteed human.
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