Week 5 College Football Picks

This week we got a bunch of road favorites. I don't love that. Or do I? Halen DeBoars are all in the dice. They're gonna make the trip to Starkville on Saturday morning before an 11 a.m. kick. Well, I wanted them to sleep in their own bed so I can rip them out of bed at 5 a.m. and put them on a bus and like, what, what? I'm giving all the points. I'm throwing them out like Oprah. Just give all the points this weekend. Let's go. We're going chalk. (dramatic music) Hey, welcome into the program. This is Joel Clatch, I'm Joel Clatch. This show is sponsored by Hilton Hilton for the stay and we thank them for their support as always. We've got picks and previews here. Big week last week, we went five and two against the spread. So that was going, we are now above 500 on the year. 12 and 11 on the season. And this week we got a bunch of road favorites. I don't love that. Or do I? See, I actually think this is the time of year where we start to see talent and depth win out. We got a lot of teams that are banged up. Some teams start to lose heart. And the cream starts to rise to the top. I'm banking on the fact that we're going to see a lot of that this week. Now, the game that I'm going to be at, let me give you a quick preview. Not going to give you a pick, obviously. Gus, Jenny and I will be in Minnesota. That's where she's from, by the way. Jenny's from Minnesota. So a bit of a homecoming for the All-American girl. As Michigan comes to town, the Wolverines coming off of that, lost to Iowa and heartbreaking fashion late in that ball game. Meanwhile, Minnesota, not many people stayed up late enough to watch this one. But they got a huge win at Washington last week. PJ Fleck is out there. His players are bloody and he's wiping their blood all over his face. That was awesome. I know like PJ's not for everybody. I like PJ Fleck. I think it's a really good football coach. So I'm looking forward to this one. There's no doubt. You know, for Michigan, I think there's still reason to be optimistic after that loss. And some of you may roll your eyes, but I will tell you this. I thought that was as good of an offensive performance as we've seen them have all year long. I thought Bryce played probably better than he did in any other game this season. This is a team that put up over 400 yards of offense on Iowa, which I don't believe is easy to do. That is a very good Iowa defense that came into last week as the number one total defense in the country. And Michigan was able to move the ball. Bryce is doing a great job. What they've done is they've kind of cut the field in half. It's a lot of half field reads. He's working through the progression. What I love about what happened last week is that against a defense that can be very difficult to throw the ball over the middle of the field again, which I touched on last week in the picks and previews. They did a nice job. So what am I saying? That game, if you actually watched the film, watched like a 21 10 Michigan win, except for like four place. They fail on fourth down, they give up a kick return, they turn it over in the scoring area, and they get a personal foul on the last possession, which gives Iowa a chance. Now, credit to Iowa. I don't want to take anything away from Iowa because what we talk about on Monday is that there are programs and there are teams that are out there and they will not beat themselves. And Iowa will not beat themselves. And so you've got a credit Iowa for coming back in that game. But this is still a team in Michigan that's traveling now. And I feel like this is a team that played as if they won the game 21 to 10. That's at least what their ability was. Underwood is light years better than he was in week one. I did that long video and talking about what he did wrong against Western Michigan. He's corrected all of those. The RPOs have been good. They've been using them in the run game. I think JJ Buchanan and Andrew Marsh have been excellent on the outside and they're figuring out ways to get them touches in space. Both of those guys went for over a hundred yards. The one area of their offense that I think needs work is the offensive line and it's not the traditional explosive grind it out, you know, kind of both of those areas offensive line run game. If you look at what Michigan has done running the football, the actual longest run, the most explosive run that they've had this season has been underwood. From the backs, they still don't have a rush of longer than 20 yards. So that's a problem. This is something that they were really good at. They were elite and creating those explosive rushing plays over the last couple of years. In fact, last year they had 19 rushes of over 20 yards. They don't have one. The longest run from a running back so far this year is 17 yards. So look for them to try to get on track in that regard. Meanwhile, Minnesota, again, PJ has done an excellent job there. That's a program that knows who they are. Yes, they got beat pretty badly by Mississippi state. But we all know now the Mississippi state. It's led by a guy that could end up in New York and the Heisman finalist conversation in Camario Taylor. Interested to see how Camario does this week more on that game against Bama later in this picks and previews. The quarterback from Minnesota, Drake Lindsay on the road at Washington last week, which I think is historically a pretty difficult place to play well. He played well, 21 to 29, 72% for 200 yards and three touchdowns. He did throw a pick, which you don't love. But that's pretty efficient play from a quarterback on the road for PJ Fleck. They will run it and they will play quality defense. You know that they will play hard. The defense got after demand Williams last week. The Washington quarterback was sacked seven times and through two interceptions. So underwood will be under some duress in this game. And that should be a quality matchup. I can't wait to get up to Minnesota and watch this one. Little Brown jug on the line. Love these trophy games. Last week, it was the illa buck. The little turtle for Ohio State and Illinois this week. The little brown jug. I believe this is the oldest trophy game in college football. So Gus Genie and I will be there. Big noon Saturday, live at noon Eastern. A big noon kickoff will be there as well. All the guys there getting you all set for that game. Michigan and Minnesota. We move on in the big 10 number five Ohio State 13 and a half point favorites on the road at number 14 Iowa after that huge win for Kirk fans and the Iowa Hawkeyes in the big house. On the last second touchdown in the corner of the end zone. Now, Kinnick is a dangerous place for top five teams to go. It has been historically. There is no doubt, not an easy place to play. Ask Oregon from last year, ask Indiana from last year. That was the national champion and the national semi final that both had to grind out tight. One possession games at Iowa a year ago. So here comes Ohio State. I think there's a lot of people that are expecting a similar style of game in particular after that win for Iowa over Michigan. But remember what I said about that Michigan win Michigan largely dominated that game and had to make some mistakes in order to open the door for Iowa to walk through that door and ultimately win the game late now. You know how I feel about Kirk fans in Iowa. I love the Iowa Hawkeyes. It just so happens though that this matchup specifically is not a great matchup for Iowa. It's far different than even the talented teams from Indiana and Oregon, like for instance, Oregon played in a driving rainstorm. So their talent and in particular their ability to threaten you deep was minimized because of the weather. Meanwhile, Indiana played Oregon before Charlie Becker was a thing last year. And so they didn't necessarily have the deep threats that they did late in the season when Becker materialized after that Penn State game. They were more of a possession team and a run first oriented team to get to the RPOs, to get to the back shoulder with Elijah Sirat and Omar Cooper. So it was a different type of team that went in there and had to scrape and fight and get a big touchdown late from, I believe it was Omar, was it Omar Cooper or Elijah Sirat? One of those two guys had a big touchdown late in that ball game. But why is this a different matchup? Well, because of Jeremiah Smith. So let's take just a little bit of a deep dive into how is Iowa built? Why is this a bad matchup? So Iowa in base downs, not on obvious passing downs, but in base downs defensively, they have been running the same defense for years. And it is highly successful. And it's because they run a four three defense four defensive linemen, three linebackers and at times it's two linebackers and a nickel, you understand based on personnel. But that position is just kind of a walk out at the second level and then four defensive backs. And they run what's called cover four. Now what does that mean, Joel, what cover four means that the safeties have both pass and run responsibility. Now generally speaking in every play, they have both pass and run responsibility. But in quarters coverage, it is very specific. The safeties and quarters coverage run what's called a pattern read technique. Okay. And so the safety is going to be reading the number two release from that side, his side. Sometimes the number three based on a three by one set. But basically someone other than the number one wide receiver. And that pattern release acts like this, if they get a horizontal move out of that number two release and or a run read, then they immediately sit down into the box and become a run front defender, not just filling in the run, but a run front defender. And that can happen on both sides if they get that pattern read. Now, if that number two release or the release that they're reading releases vertically into their face, now they catch that release and they become a passing defender. But what does that mean for the outside players? That means as a quarterback, as I was always taught, quarters coverage while a zone really in nature for the number one release is man coverage because the corner does not have over the top help. That safety is pattern reading. He doesn't necessarily have over the top help. Now they can rock safeties and do all these other other other things. So don't get in the comments and tell me you don't know what you're talking about. Yes, there's ways for the opposite safety to drop back based on the read, but as a general baseline, a quarterback, you view quarters coverage as man to man on the outside. The corners are locked up, okay? And they don't have over the top help. Well, why would that be a bad matchup for Ohio State? Joel, I don't know. Why would that be a bet? Because of Jeremiah Smith. So this is why while Iowa plays these other teams very tightly, they don't play Ohio State very tight. In fact, in their last two matchups, because of the deep threat ability of Ohio State through the years, whether it's been Smith or Tate or Olave or or Garrett Wilson or any of these guys, Smith and Jigba. In their last two matchups with Ohio State, Iowa has given up 54 and 35 because it is an offense that can take advantage of the 101 on the outside. So now Iowa is going to have a decision to make. Are they going to allow their corners to sit out there and try to guard Jeremiah Smith? They better not because that's what Illinois tried to do. And he just went for over 200 yards and four touchdowns. In fact, you can't do that because there's one thing I know about Ohio State's offense. If he's single covered, not only is he getting the ball, but he's going to catch it. And he's probably going to make you pay with a big play. So you can't go in with that game plan. So this defense that they have run for years and years and years in some way, shape or form for Phil Parker, the defensive coordinator is going to need to be manipulated. They've got to help over the top of Smith, which allows the offense, the opportunity to run the ball more effectively. This is where the game is one or lost for Ohio State. They're going to need to run the ball effectively because if Iowa helps on Smith and yet can still stop the run, then Ohio State's in trouble. But what I've seen over the last couple of weeks covering Ohio State is that that offensive line is actually playing at a pretty high level and the backs are coming along. They're running more violently. Bo Jackson's running more violently. I think that this is a matchup that highly favors Ohio State because Iowa has to manipulate what they do. On the other side of the ball, we're going to see this Ohio State run defense. Can they stop the run? You might say to yourself like probably not Iowa's run, but if you actually dip into the numbers, Iowa against like opponents or power for opponents, they played Iowa State. Last week, they played Michigan. You'll see that they ran the ball for 3.2 yards per carry against Iowa State. Two and a half yards per carry against Michigan. The games against lesser opponents were where their huge runs came and lots of the bulk of their run carries. What does that mean? That was a long dissertation to tell you. Ohio State's favored by 13 and a half. I think they win it by 13 and a half. I think that I would take a 35-13 game. I'm going to give the 13 and a half and think that Jeremiah Smith is too much for Iowa to actually cover. Let's get to that game. I was referencing earlier. Bama at Mississippi State. Oh, everybody loves Mississippi State and Jeff Levy and the Cowbells. You're going to want more cowbell in the track and they're going to be cowbells out there. I tried to set the world record last week for number of cowbells in there in the decibel level. I think that they actually got it. Now we're going to have all the cowbells out for the 11th central noon Eastern game at Mississippi State. But how about this interesting piece of news? Alabama is going to drive day of. I'm sorry. Did we not learn anything from the Rams going to Australia? Like so Kaylyn DeBoer is rolling the dice. They're going to make the trip to Starkville on Saturday morning before an 11 a.m. kick. It's about a 90 minute drive. So it's not out of the question. It's not crazy. But it's 11 a.m. kick. So I think most teams like to get there about two, two and a half hours before the game. That means you're leaving Tuscaloosa at 645 seven. So it's like, well, I want them to sleep in their own bed. So I can rip them out of bed at 5 a.m. and put them on a bus and like, what? What? What? It I almost changed my selection in this game almost because of that. But that offense is too explosive guys. Alabama can flat throw the ball. Kaylyn Russell has been dynamic. This is kind of DeBoer's offense, right? Like the last couple of years Simpson was very good. There's no doubt. But like this is you're seeing that explosiveness that we saw at a pinnix and those guys Roma Dune Zay at Washington. And now this week, they're going to see a little bit of a different defense. Now, I don't think that Russell will struggle because it's a road game. He's already had a road start. You know, that in your pocket is huge for a young quarterback. He played at Kentucky. They even went through their lumps early in that game in his first road start. And now he's going to have a wealth of knowledge just from that one start against Kentucky on the road. Now you're going to get in there and you're going to face all those cowbells. You're going to want them in the track. And the other thing that he's going to see is something that's unique and he may struggle with early. And that is Zach Arnett's 335 defense. I think it's harder to find the completions against the 335 partly because it's way easier for that structure of defense to play what's called drop eight coverage, only rush three drop eight into coverage. And then you're sitting there as a quarterback and you're thinking to yourself, where in the world am I supposed to throw this ball? I don't have the easy completion on the outside. There's too many zone defenders in the underneath areas over the middle. So I don't even have a traditional hook curl or middle hook curl middle hook player. Like who is my zone movement key? And I've got three players over the top. So it presents a lot of problems. Post snap for a quarterback seeing it for the first time. I do believe that early in the game, I would not be shocked at all. If Russell is holding the football and doesn't know where to throw it because if I was Mississippi state, I'd play drop eight. I can't watch the film again South Carolina. And in my right mind, say to myself, let's challenge him and see if they can throw it down the field. They will. And they have. Um, Camario. Gosh, he's been good. But this is the best defense he will have seen by a wide margin. He's been unbelievable. They can run it a little bit as well. They'll be at home. Bama has faced some mobile quarterbacks already. They've got experiencing, you know, sellers. They played against him. Sellers ran for 72 yards on 13 carries. They did a great job against Ashton Daniels, although he threw for 377. I don't think Bama's going to go in there and blow the doors off of Mississippi state by any stretch in the imagination. But this is a better team than Missouri. This is the best team that Mississippi state will have faced. And as we saw with Ole Miss, like if you're just a one man band, that's not going to play well when you face a real quality opponent like Ole Miss did with Florida. So like Bama's been able to run the football. I like their ability to run the football. You can run that against a three man defensive front. I think Bama wins this one 3528. They're five and a half point favorites. I think they cover the five and a half. I'm going road favorite again. Let's go Bama and that explosive offense. Let's stay in the SEC. Number eight, Florida at number 25. Missouri can like, I wish I could just X out the 25 for Missouri. What a joke that they're still ranked, huh? By the way, not just me saying it, even though like most ardent SEC flag waivers are like, that might be a bridge too far. Here's a program that is still ranked right now. By the way, since Eli Drinkowitz took over, you've seen some of these tweets. I'm just going to lay them out there. That was 2020. Missouri is O and 16. That is a goose egg and 16 versus SEC teams that finished with a winning record and SEC play. So how do we think they're going to do against Florida? Well, I assume Florida's going to finish with a winning record in the SEC. They lost the Mississippi state last week. That could be O and 17 by the end of the year. They've been ranked in 43 AP polls since that, that time frame like and everyone is like, you're such a homer. Why do you hate the SEC? I don't hate the SEC at all. The SEC is phenomenal this year. Phenomenal like Russell, Georgia, Texas. Like all I love it. Florida. Did I already say that? Probably. I get upset and I'm going to try to calm down when Missouri is still ranked. Florida can run the rock. I think that's reliable when you go on the road and they learned their lesson. I'll be in an interesting and odd way last week against Old Miss because Old Miss read their press clippings and they come in and they lay an egg after a huge emotional win over Lane Kiffin and LSU. If I'm John Somerall, I mentioned this on Monday. All I'm trying to do this entire week is fight complacency. How do you fight complacency with energy and effort and you can do that in the run game? And what can they do? Run the rock. 53 rushes a week ago. You've got Jaden Baugh, you've got Duke Clark, you've got these guy like they can do it. I think they can fight the complacency. I think Missouri might score some points in this one. There are a bit of a all or nothing passing game with Austin Simmons. He's only completing 60% of his passes against FBS opponents, but they can create big explosive plays. They still don't have a mod hearty though. And again, like does Missouri win games like this? The answer is no. And we have a track record of that. Those are just the facts. That's not me being a hater. Missouri fans hate me and that's fine, whatever. Florida wins this one. 32 or excuse me, I'm sorry. 42 32. A 10 point win. Florida covered. Let's go road favorites. Cover the five and a half. Let's go. Miami at Clemson. Miami is 16 and a half. Joel, are you going to do it again? Miami's number four. They're favored by 16 and a half on the road. I actually think this could be Miami's kind of announcement to the rest of the country. We think we know that they're really good. I think on Saturday night, we're going to be like, yep, that is one of if not the best teams in the country. We said all off season before the LSU game to open the year. At least on this show, we said, you know, we're probably going to turn on that game and there's going to be a big talent gap between LSU and Clemson. Guess what happened? There was a big talent gap between LSU and Clemson. Well, Miami has more talent than LSU. Now, you can argue that maybe it's close, but what I do know philosophically, they got more talent than Clemson and I don't know if there's enough guts in to bring your own gut style. environment for Davos Weenie to go out there and beat a Miami team that's that talented and less Miami beats themself, which they have a propensity to do at times. But this feels different this year. You've got Darian, Mensa playing at a high level. You've got Malachi Tony. And if we didn't have Jeremiah Smith in this sport right now, Malachi Tony would be heading shoulders, the best wide receiver in college football. By the way, Mensa played in Tiger Stadium last year, beat Clemson in the road environment in a tight game. So he's not going to be worried about this environment in Death Valley. Like I don't think it's going to be too big for him. They're better at the line of scrimmage than Clemson is. They're better than Clemson. Clemson's gotten some wins over what Georgia, Southern North Carolina and Cal since the loss to LSU and none of those have been that impressive. Cal did not look good in that game and it wasn't necessarily because of what Clemson was doing. Miami is a great team. I have them as an undefeated number one seed in the college football playoff. If you have not checked out our bracket prediction from yesterday, go back and do that on the YouTube channel. You can subscribe and share it with a friend as well. I've got Miami winning on the road 42 17. They cover the 16 and a half road favorites, baby. What are we doing? This is crazy. We are on one right now road favorites. All right. Now I've got a, I've got a road dog here and I don't know if I can take them. Washington at USC, USC's number 18. All teams coming off at tough losses obviously at home, Washington lost to Minnesota, couldn't protect the quarterback. We all know about USC and here's the thing about USC in that loss to Oregon. Everybody is writing that program and that coach is obituary right now. That's the talk of the town and as we know, I think those of us raising my hand that cover this sport and talk about this sport. We go overboard with positivity and we go overboard with negativity. And I think this is a little too negative on USC that wasn't an atrocious performance against Oregon. Okay. That's a tie ball game. They get a stop. They get a penalty. This is where it's at for USC. I think that this program under this amount of pressure from the outside and the scrutiny and and in particular, the talk about job status and what's going on. You either fold as a program or you get your best. Like I don't think that there's one or the other here. I don't think this is a middle of the road game for USC. I genuinely believe they either go out there and flop and lose or they go out and say, nope, we're going to be all right and we're going to point ourselves in a direction that could get us back into the playoff conversation. I expect the latter and I expect a good performance. That defense has obviously been bad for the last couple of weeks, but they did get to keep score steward back. Their freshmen are outstanding. I still think Luke Waffles, one of the better freshmen in the country, the defense of in. Kaden Dixon. Why it has been outstanding. They're best freshmen. Don't know if he's going to play probably not Trent Mosley. We'll see about that. Trying to work his way back from a knee injury. But the problem for Washington is that they don't protect the quarterback. Guess what USC can do? They can get after the quarterback. They can rush the passer. I don't see how USC scores less than 35 points in this game at home. I think USC wins this one 35, 21. They cover the nine and a half. They're nine and a half point favorites. I'm taking all favorites. Let's go. We're going chalk. Class week five picks Ohio State at Iowa. I've got Ohio State covering that one. They're covering the 13 and a half. They get a big win. Look for Jeremiah to have a big day. I think Bama's explosive offense is too much five and a half is not enough. I'm giving the five and a half and I'm taking Bama. Florida at Missouri. Missouri does not win games like this and run games travel. They learned a lesson from Ole Miss and the way that they played after a big emotional win over LSU. Florida covers a five and a half and get a big road win over Missouri. Miami shows everybody that they're probably one of, if not the best team in the country. The talent gap is too much. Mensa has been there before. He won a tight game at Clemson with lesser talent around him last year at Duke. They get a win. However, the 16 and a half that's right. I'm going big for Miami and we're going to sit here and we're going to be like, yep, that team is for real. And then USC covers the nine and a half against Washington. I don't see how SC doesn't score at least 35. I don't see Washington getting there with their inability to protect the passer. So that'll do it for our picks and previews. I hope you enjoy college football and I hope everyone enjoys the points because we're just giving them this week. Let's go favorites.