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Hey, this is Anthony from Raiders of the Lost podcast. With movies,
the action, and the fun, this is ChatGPT.com.
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People think we have it so good. People think we have it so easy. But I'm looking at this
viewer's guide. I'm looking at this Saturday schedule. And look, we got problems too. How
are you supposed to decide what to put on your third TV screen in the afternoon window? So look,
we're struggling too, people. It's Thursday, September 24th, the year of our Lord, 2026.
Act high atop for the first time in months. A temperate downtown Nashville, Tennessee just
stood outside for hours today. Didn't even sweat. But someone's going to Saturday because I got
upset alerts and I've got a number of them. And there's a lot of staff disagreement on these,
which means it's going to be a great Saturday. We've got the commissioner's poll that is creating
good trouble, but trouble nonetheless in the comments. So I've got several things to reply
to and respond to there. As I said, it's just a loaded viewer's guide. The viewer's guide through
three weeks has become a lot of fun. I've got a lot of fun. I've got a lot
a potential future award-winning part of this show. And we are trending headlong into what
could be an explosive, dare I say, volcanic Saturday. All that and more. We're jam-packed.
They're watching us in Annapolis, Maryland, San Diego, California, Jackson, Tennessee,
Fort Wayne, Indiana. It's a huge, huge week. We're going to be on the road in the matter of hours to
Knoxville. We've got our live show Friday on ESPN from two to three. Feedback's been phenomenal.
I hope attendance tomorrow is phenomenal. And then I've got some news and notes later in the show
about our Pate State Live Friday night show. Did you see, Jesse, there is a sort of a black market,
like a secondary ticket market forming in the comment section? I don't even know that it's
legal. I don't know if it's up to us to do anything about it. I just know that it's
happening. Anyway, we'll talk about that later. Let's dive into the show.
I got upset alerts, six of them in my hand. To varying degrees, I am concerned to terrify
for some of these favorites. So the way we do this is we didn't do a breakdown for Oklahoma,
Georgia this week. The line's 13 and a half, but what we can do is talk about it in the form of
a concern level on the upset alert concern meter. And I'm putting this one out of four.
I see tons of ways for Oklahoma to cover. I see very few ways for Oklahoma to win.
The way I envision this game going is, you know, let's just say it ends up being an eight-point
Georgia win. Well, that's easy because that's just Georgia can't break the game open.
And Oklahoma makes life really difficult. And Oklahoma wins the battle of field position. And
Georgia doesn't have the explosivity or the cat busting potential at receiver. Not to mention
Mike Bobo doesn't even feel the need to be very extreme or maybe even becomes risk averse and
play calling, which he gets blamed for a lot, but it would be the viable path here. And all that
just leads to like a 16 to nine win. That could happen. Georgia could also win 24 to three. That
Jesse, how do we get the 17 to 13 shocker that comes in the form of minus turnovers for the
home team? It's got, it's gotta be what it is. That's gotta be what it is. Now, Oklahoma can do
that. I just think if I figure that out, Kirby figured that out a long time ago and I can't see
him allowing that. Maybe if he had a young quarterback, maybe, but I can't see it. So I'm
only putting a four on the upset alert concern meter. Now this is a prideful program in Oklahoma.
I do not expect them to go quietly.
Into that good night, but I do expect them to lose the game. At which point there'll be a whole
lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth in Norman. Next up, Jesse's playing Wisconsin this week.
Jesse is at home and Brett Bielema is coming to pay him personally a visit. Now it's going to
happen in state college because that's where Penn state takes on Wisconsin. Penn state's a nine and
a half point favorite. Too big, Jesse? Just right. Not enough. You've laid the points. And I know how
much Jesse bet on it, but it would be a HIPAA violation for me to tell you. So I'm putting an
eight on this one because of the big red machine circa 1997 theory that I floated several weeks
ago quickly. And I mean quickly for those of you who are not wrestling historians. There's a guy
named Glenn Jacobs, former mayor of Knoxville, Tennessee, Knox County, Tennessee. Maybe we'll
see him this weekend. Once upon a time, in fact, for his whole career, he was seven foot tall,
but he got saddled with some of the worst gimmicks in the history of pro wrestling.
And, uh, you know, that included being an evil dentist and whatnot. And so they were all ready
to give up on him because in that business, in that time period, the lesson was we could put
the worst gimmick in the world on you. And if it doesn't work, if the crowd doesn't like it,
it's your fault. So Glenn Jacobs has another gimmick go awry and it doesn't work. And at Royal
Rumble 97, he gets eliminated and you just don't see him for a long time. He just went away.
And then he reappeared at the end of the year. And he was a great guy. And then he reappeared at an event called Bad Blood 1997 in your house. Shawn Michaels versus
Undertaker. It's Hell in a Cell. It's in the Kiel Center, I believe in St. Louis. Great match.
Five-star match. Meltzer classic. Anyway, Kane emerges. Glenn Jacobs gets one more shot. He gets
one more gimmick and it's Kane. And it becomes one of the most legendary characters in pro
wrestling. And he goes on to have a 20 plus year career. That in a sense is what we're looking for
from Luke Fickle in Wisconsin. This is Big Red Machine Theory. So if you're a big red machine,
they're going to have a 20 plus year career. So if you're a big red machine, you're going to have
their version of the evil dentist character. Their version of Royal Rumble 97 was Notre Dame.
We knew they were going to get splattered and they got splattered. And then it was going to
be time for them to go away for a little while. AKA Western Illinois, Eastern Michigan. And they
got right, hopefully. And now they're throwing on the red mask and they're throwing on the black
boots and they're throwing on the red bodysuit. Hopefully no house fire. Hopefully that was just
make-believe. But that's neither here nor there. Now they reappear. And now it's their turn.
To come from completely off the radar and shock the world. And I haven't seen anything from Penn
State. It's not their fault. They just haven't played anybody. Jesse didn't schedule anybody
out of conference. So, I mean, the best they could do is a trip to Temple. That's the best
they could do for me. They play Buffalo. They play some dude named Marshall. And now they've
got Wisconsin coming in. And because I don't know enough about Penn State yet, I don't know
enough to just look past this game. I'm putting an eight on it, Jesse. I have concerns. Jesse's
doesn't. But then again, Jesse picked Rutgers to beat USC. And that didn't happen. So, all due
respect. And I'm not sure much is due. All due respect. I'm going to go ahead and keep an eye
on this game anyway. Eight. Count them up. Eight. Next up. What do we know about Indiana? Could we
argue Indiana is in a similar spot to Penn State here? So, Indiana is playing host to Northwestern.
Indiana, I'm sure you've heard by now, won the national title last year. So, they are above
but they're favored by 20 and a half. And we haven't seen them play anybody. We think they're
really good. I think they're really good. And I think that Aiden Childs plays for Northwestern
now. In fact, I know he does. I just don't know what to expect. The model likes Northwestern a
lot in this game, which I'm sure we'll talk about more during Friday Night Lines, exclusively on
Instagram Live tomorrow night at JoshPateCFB. But it's a similar spot to Penn State in that
we've got teams that we think are good. We think Indiana could be really good. But we have to
test it. You know, because we thought Oregon was going to be really good. And then we found out in
week two, wait a second, maybe we just didn't know anything about Oregon. No one is immune,
is my point. And so, Northwestern is going to come in here. The model thinks Northwestern is
getting too many points, but we're not talking about covers here. We're talking about the
outright upset. And to that, I can only put a three on this. I certainly can't see Kurt
Cignetti allowing this to happen. Now, if it did happen, if, Aiden Childs just has to have the game
And in fairness, against Deion in Colorado, he was 17 of 22.
241, five touchdowns, no interceptions. Hey, you throw five against Brian Haynes and it's a
different story. I don't know that that's going to happen. Maybe a little bit of that happens and
maybe it combines with a Josh Hoover disaster game. Maybe the turnover bug rears its ugly head.
Maybe it turns out that is going to be an issue this year. I'm going to have to pay to find out
because I think I'd still lean Indiana here. Heavily lean them straight up. I'll put a three
on it. Meanwhile, where we were last week down on the plains of Auburn, Vanderbilt comes to town.
Still undefeated Vanderbilt. Jared Curtis is on the road to becoming a really, really good
quarterback for Vanderbilt. He is the full-time starter now. He's the five-star true freshman.
There are going to be some growing pains, but there's this theme emerging in the SEC right now
where a bunch of first-year starters at quarterback are showing real spike potential
above and beyond some of the entrenched incumbent starter types.
And Jared Curtis is one of them. Faison Brandon's one of them. Russell at Alabama's one of them.
And so the question becomes, who is the victim of the Jared Curtis-like emergence game,
sort of announcing his arrival to the world? Well, Auburn's a nine-and-a-half point favorite here.
I was not all that impressed at all with what we saw from Auburn last week. Now,
you could say the same about Vandy. They needed the miracle to top all miracles to
beat NC State, but it did happen. And now they go on the road, and I'm going to put a seven on the
upset alert concern meter here because the USF offense has not scaled yet, aka the Auburn offense
now. It hasn't scaled yet. Byron Brown has not scaled as a performer at this level yet.
And I don't know if that's a magical lever slash lever that's going to get pulled at any point
this year. I think it could be a struggle most of the year. And I could see a scenario,
where it's two minutes to go until half, minute 30 to go until half. Vandy has a three-point lead,
and they go into the locker room. They go into the break like that. And Vandy has all the confidence
in the world. And that point, that's really where you start to get rattled a little bit if you're
Auburn. It's one thing for Florida to beat you. It's another thing for that to carry over another
week. And it could be a little tense in the second half. Vandy's got to get a lot more from the run
game for any of this to happen, by the way. Or either Byron Brown's got to turn the ball over a
lot, which he has done in the past.
I'm going to put a seven on it. I believe in Clark Lee and those guys to put together a really,
really good game plan here. And I don't know what to expect from Auburn right now. So I'm
going to put a seven on it. Next up, weird game in the Big 12. Weird game up in Ames. Utah is on
the road, I believe, for the first time, Jesse? I don't think Utah's left home. Yeah. So Utah's
going to Iowa State. And the line's eight and a half. Utah favored by eight and a half. That
doesn't seem weird, except that they were favored by 12 and a half at one point this
week.
And that thing plummeted. And the model still doesn't think it's plummeted enough. The model
only paints Iowa State as a seven-point dog in this game. So we'll see about that tomorrow night
as it relates to betting against the spread. But I'm going to put a five on this. It's always
weird going out on the road for the first time. Iowa State played Iowa very tough last week. We
haven't seen Utah face much of anything. And I say that knowing full well they played an SEC
opponent two weeks ago. Technically, it's Arkansas. But technically, it was an SEC opponent.
They did wear the SEC sticker on the helmet. I believe in Dampier. I believe in Wayshawn Parker.
There are a lot of commodities about Utah that I believe in that can travel. However, you've heard
of dead internet theory. Flat Big 12 theory is also something that's out there. And flat Big 12
theory is what could throw this game into a blender. As recently as three years ago, the Big 12 was flat.
Anything could happen on any given weekend. We routinely had teams that in the preseason odds were
in the bottom third to bottom quarter, and they were playing for the conference title.
And then Joey McGuire ruined all of it. But maybe we've returned to a small version of that.
If we have, you'll kind of know in a game like this, where the game starts and you're like,
why was there ever a favorite of over a touchdown in this game? I'm putting a five on it.
So I'm kind of neither here nor there. I'm more looking at the five. I'm looking at the point spread motion and saying, wow, interesting. Bears watching. Bears close watching.
Last game, and it's a late kickoff. Minnesota's at Washington.
Washington, notably, has looked pretty weird so far this year. Not even bad.
I would almost say weird is beyond bad. So this is an 11 o'clock Eastern kickoff.
It's the late kickoff. It's the thing that's probably going to take most of you to sleep.
Not us, though. We're going to stay up.
Fish figures out a way to just run up the score.
So I'm only putting a four on this because I have a sneaking suspicion that this weird explosion game is coming from Washington.
And I will grant you, through their body of work so far, there's no reason to believe it's coming.
But you've got to remember, early in the year, especially with teams that have explosive individual pieces offensively,
through three weeks, you've only seen three versions of them.
And there are, therefore, versions of them.
And there are versions of that team that are coming that you haven't seen yet.
And it happens every year. Some team looks weird and they stumble out of the gate.
But then they, boom, they get their act together.
And you see this result on the bottom line on a Saturday.
And you're saying, oh, well, that's who I expected.
I know Drake Lindsey's a good quarterback.
I know Minnesota's a good outfit.
But, dude, they're going into Husky Stadium, and that team's still got a lot to prove.
There's a lot of potential that's unrealized about that team.
I actually think, if I bet this game, I think I'd lay the point.
In anticipation of what's coming, instead of reflecting on what has or hasn't been.
So I'm only going to put a four on that one.
There are your upset alerts for this week.
Friday night's going to be a special night in Knoxville.
You may have heard Saturday's going to be special, too.
And it is.
We'll be on the sideline in Neyland Stadium, high noon.
But before that, we've got our live show on ESPN, 2 o'clock Eastern Time,
from the Shadow of Ayers Hall tomorrow.
Look forward to all of you joining us.
But then. Tomorrow night, at Jackson Terminal, sold out.
Jesse, it's been sold out for days and days and days.
Our second ever Pate State Live event.
We had one in Atlanta the night before the SEC Championship game.
We sold that one out.
And we sold this one out, too.
So I've got a couple of little nuggets for you on that in just a second.
But just because some of you keep asking, remember, we have got individual
Don't Tread on Saturday kind of color-coded themed t-shirts.
Every week at patestatematerial.com.
So we've got the generic one, which I think looks really good.
But we've also got, like, the Auburn-themed one last week.
We've got Tennessee-themed for this week because we're in Knoxville.
patestatematerial.com.
You'll see the shirts right there.
Jesse, I don't want to make the announcement official.
But I do want to say, if you have secured tickets to the live show tomorrow night,
a couple of special guests are joining us.
I want to under-promise and over-deliver.
But a couple of special guests are joining us.
It should be a really, really fun time.
It pays to Discover.
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Hey!
This is James from Raiders of the Lost podcast.
We've learned over and over on our show, while talking to people in entertainment, that success comes when you bet on yourself.
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Wes is diagnosed with cancer.
Next up.
We got criticized for not predicting this game
and previewing this game the other day.
Guys, Tuesday, we realized pretty quickly we can't fit all these games in.
So we've got a couple more that we've got to get to tonight.
Iowa at Michigan.
Saturday, 3.30, CBS.
Jenny Dell is about to watch football get taken back to the 1930s.
The total in this game is 38.5.
And that's with sunny conditions and a high in the low 70s.
You're about to watch the grossest form of football
in the most bizarre way.
Beautiful weather conditions imaginable.
Number one defense versus number 10 defense in the country.
And if you haven't watched Iowa this year,
and judging by the TV numbers, you haven't yet,
allow me to inform you that not a whole lot has changed.
Hank Brown, starting quarterback.
Under 200 passing yards every game.
They've only got one wide receiver with more than six receptions and 80 yards.
They are 132nd in passes of 20 plus yards.
So it's Iowa.
It's Iowa being Iowa.
It's Kirk Ferentz being Kirk Ferentz.
Now, is this going to be a body shot game or is it going to be a haymaker game?
Most likely, it's a body shot game.
And if it's a body shot game, that just means it's really, really tight throughout.
But Michigan, in the aggregate, has better athletes across the board.
And there's one or two third down conversions in the fourth quarter
that they convert and Iowa can't.
And that gives them a one possession win.
However, the other thing could happen too.
Small percentage chance, but the other thing could happen.
So, explosivity.
I guess anything could happen.
It is the 2020s after all.
But you've got the 111th versus 132nd explosive pass profiles going against each other here.
I would say they haven't run it incredibly well.
Underwood leads Michigan in rushing so far.
And Iowa had 29 carries for 93 yards against Iowa State.
None of them.
Over 10.
So, they ran the ball okay against inferior competition.
But they really played one team and they didn't run it all that well against them.
Either one can flip that stat profile though.
Because like I said with Washington earlier in the show,
we're not far enough into the year to where you've figured out the total profile
or total DNA of a team.
If we're in week six or seven, you kind of have.
In week two, three, four, it's still kind of being formulated.
So, it's been put in the freezer.
But it's still liquid.
It hasn't totally frozen yet.
So, here's what that could look like.
J.J. Buchanan, he could have a stat line where he has like three catches,
but it's 85 yards and a touchdown.
And that just means he either took one to the house yards after catch
or Underwood just threw one up and he turned a 50-50 into a 70-30.
And that's the difference in the game.
It's important to remember, like I said, it's still early to think we've seen all the cards.
Like there could be a couple of things in play here.
Maybe there's just a better version of Michigan.
Or maybe the offense is steadily improving week over week
and you just see more evidence of that.
Maybe Iowa's is.
Maybe Tony Diaz does that.
Like you don't know.
I would just say we've got far more of a sample size of Kurt Ferentz being at Iowa all these years
than we do this entire staff being at Michigan.
So, fingers crossed there.
Iowa also last week, this gives me kind of confidence on Michigan's side.
Iowa had zero sacks and zero pressures defensively versus Iowa State.
So, like the one hallmark that you've always come to be able to hang your hat on with Iowa
is Phil Parker's defense.
And I'm not saying you can't still do that.
I just think going into the year, we looked at them personnel-wise.
They had a little higher rate of attrition than is normal.
And maybe we're seeing that.
And you've got to remember, you don't need a ton here.
Iowa's not going to pull away from you unless it's defensive scoring.
So, defensive scores, huge here.
Special teams, field position, like obviously,
you could write that preview in your sleep for an Iowa-Michigan game.
Both of those defenses, totally comfortable waiting for you to give them the game.
And that affects offensive play calling.
And everyone knows that that's kind of the balance that's being struck here.
So, let's take a look at what the model thinks.
The FanDuel number right now is Michigan minus five and a half.
The model pretty much agrees almost to the number.
It's got Michigan minus five.
I think Michigan is probably a little more likely to be in improvement mode right now.
It would make total sense if they won this game by seven or even won it by ten.
And you look and you say, there's still work to do.
But they did look better.
This is the best they've looked so far.
I can believe in this team.
I kind of think that's the game we'll get.
So, I'll take Michigan and I'll lay the five and a half.
I think they'll win in cover.
I know a lot of you have miles and miles and miles to drive to your destinations both today
and throughout the weekend.
And I respect it.
And I'm right there with you.
We've got to drive to Knoxville tonight.
And I-40, eventually, we will drive by a quick trip, Jesse.
And that's where I will stop.
I don't want to disclose what time.
I don't want to create a circus there.
But I have the ability to fill my tank up.
I have the ability to go in there and get cold brew on tap, get a bunch of goodies.
I can get a slice of pizza and a Big Q for $4.
I can get it for $3 if I download the Quick Trip app.
And I have shared that information numerous times on this show.
And here's what is a very beautiful thing about our audience.
There's not another one like it.
Audience engagement at Pate State.
Off the charts.
And I see it all the time.
But sometimes our partners don't see it.
Because our partners, I mean, Quick Trip Joe's not in the studio with us.
Although he may want to be.
He has a job to do.
And certainly, the client does not go out on the road with us.
So every now and then, Perez is following me around.
And he's filming.
And he captures interactions that are pretty common for us.
So he captured one last week that I wanted to show you.
It's like 10 seconds long.
We're at Auburn.
Our live show had just ended.
Our ESPN show had just ended.
And I just go back to say hey to a bunch of our audience that's still there.
A bunch of our crowd's still there.
Someone had a Quick Trip cup for me to sign.
And I don't just want you to watch that someone brought a Quick Trip cup.
Listen in the background.
Wow.
Hey, $3 if you download the app, huh?
Yeah.
I got a free pizza slice.
The audience knew that if you download the Quick Trip app, $3 pizza and Big Q.
Jesse, you sit in these sales meetings with me when we meet with clients.
We don't even have to talk.
All we have to do is show them that.
The skeptic would say we planned that.
I can promise you we did not.
If we planned it, it would be a lot more elaborate than that.
That first off, the slice of pizza would have been in hand and the cup would have still been full.
All right.
Let's move on.
The commissioner's poll has come out.
And as you can expect, it's gone over very well in the comment section.
I released the commissioner's poll because after bashing the AP poll for so long, justifiably,
I was challenged to put my own rankings out.
We put the JP poll out, but those are power ratings.
So, well, Josh, why don't you put your rankings out?
Okay, I will.
It's not that big a deal.
It's not that difficult.
So, I put it out earlier today, Immunity.
And I've got Ole Miss as the number one team in the country because they have the best resume in the country.
My belief on rankings is not anything about neutral field favorability.
I couldn't care less about that if I'm ranking teams.
This is about merit.
And early, early, early in the year, which we still are, it is still September.
We're like three days into fall.
I think it's okay to have wild fluctuation.
Like, I think it's perfectly normal for a team to go from number 46 to number 10.
Because if you add one quality win this early in the year, it does vastly change your resume.
Okay.
Compared to other resumes.
I think that's totally normal.
I think that's the way it should look.
What I don't think should happen is this garbage that happened in the AP poll earlier this week,
where like A&M gets beat by Kentucky.
They both got losses.
Kentucky's is to Bama.
A&M's is to Kentucky.
And A&M stays in front of Kentucky because of preseason rankings.
Oregon is still in the AP poll.
Why?
Because of preseason rankings.
That's stupid.
Oregon doesn't belong in the top 25 right now.
They can earn their way back into it.
But don't be predictable.
Don't be predictable.
Don't be predictive with your rankings.
That's stupid.
You should be reactive with your rankings.
It should be merit-based.
So with that in mind, I put this out.
And I had Indiana down at 10.
Because Indiana hasn't played anyone yet.
They will, but they haven't yet.
So Anthony hits us up.
He says, man, your hate of Indiana has got to be studied.
Brother, all I did was study who they've played.
That's all I did.
I could believe that Indiana's going to go on to win the national title.
I could have them number one.
And yet, this is how my rankings would look.
So he kept on going.
Because I got no problem trading shots back and forth with people.
I am clickbait paid.
Engagement bait paid, after all.
So I've got to live up to my nickname.
And I kept going back and forth with him.
I said, Anthony, have you seen who they've played?
And he said, Jesse, well, who has Georgia played, Notre Dame played, Miami played?
And this is a classic situation where someone thinks they got you.
And they didn't.
I know who George has played, not much.
but George has gone on the road to a conference opponent's building and blew them out.
Miami has gone on the road twice in ACC play and one-handedly by double digits both times.
Who else did he say? Notre Dame. Notre Dame played Wisconsin week one. Now, you could listen to that
and you could say, oh, big deal, Wisconsin. Big deal, Arkansas. Big deal, Wake Forest.
The alternative is North Texas, Howard, and Western Kentucky.
That's who Indiana's played so far.
This is not that difficult.
Indiana will eventually play Nebraska.
They'll play Ohio State.
As soon as this weekend, they get into conference play, right?
They play Northwestern.
So if they win 44-10, guess what's going to happen with Indiana, Anthony?
But it shouldn't happen until there's reason for it to happen.
And then, Jesse, I thought I was doing a great public service
by putting Mississippi State in the top 10, well into the top 10,
where they belonged, number six.
And Jared had the following to say.
Drugs is the only reason you would Mississippi State six.
Maybe lay off some of it yourself, Jared, so you can type fully formed sentences.
Drugs is the only reason you would have Mississippi State at six.
Yeah, it could be that.
It could be drug use.
It could be.
Or it could be my TV works, my eyeballs work, my brain works,
and I've watched what they've done on the road to a Big Ten team in Minnesota,
and then I watched what they did last week on the road at South Carolina,
back-to-back road games early in the year.
This is not November when you and I are talking.
If in November when you and I are talking,
Mississippi State's biggest flexes are still we beat Minnesota and we beat South Carolina,
then that becomes a far weaker resume, but we're going into week four.
That's one of the best resumes in the country right now,
and they've been impressive doing it, and they've got an extremely dynamic quarterback.
So why wouldn't I have Mississippi State this high?
Or I'll put it another way.
Take one of these darlings everyone had in the top five.
I had Oregon in the top five.
If Oregon had Mississippi State's resume, where would you have Oregon?
If I told those dudes, dress up in Oregon uniforms and just go do the exact same thing you did on the road,
at Minnesota, on the road to South Carolina, where would you have Oregon?
You know good and well you'd have them top five.
No one would claim drug use.
They'd just look and say, yeah, this makes perfect sense.
So I love preseason rankings.
I had Oregon really high in the preseason, but I wipe it almost clean
by the time we've got two or three weeks worth of actual results on the field,
which to me is the definition of common sense, but apparently not to the comment section.
Next up, I think we got some valid pushbacks.
I think we got some valid pushback on at least one team in this poll this week.
I'm not perfect.
I am not infallible.
Buckeye World hit us, but this was dozens of people hit us up and said,
Louisville's at 22, a three-point loss to Ole Miss, the number one team,
and a good win against SMU.
And upon further reflection, this is probably accurate.
Someone, for instance, they said, why is Louisville at 22 and LSU is still at eight?
So they've both lost to Ole Miss.
Louisville played Ole Miss tighter than LSU did.
And Louisville's got a better win against SMU than LSU has against Clemson.
And that's actually pretty valid, but the ink had already dried.
I mean, what do I want to do?
Get Perez to redraw the thing?
So I do agree.
I will grant you Louisville belongs higher than 22.
Maybe LSU belongs lower than eight, but certainly Louisville belongs a little higher
than 22.
And we are sending a credit to Jeff Brom for a discounted item in the Pate State store
as some form of payment.
We have to own up to our mistakes here.
And we'll keep you updated as to whether he cashes it in.
But yes, Louisville, very good team, probably underrated here.
Next up, some good old-fashioned hate state.
Some guy with a bunch of numbers in his name said,
you used to be seen as a credible authority in ranking teams.
Now you just don't.
Just do it for the rage bait, banter, and clicks, which surely provides revenue for
you.
Absolutely disgusting that you sold yourself out.
Those are disgusting allegations, if they're true.
Jesse, do we know if any of those are true?
Certainly clickbait.
Certainly.
Because when I put out those tweets that don't have a link to click on, I got to get you
to click on it.
That's really the only way that we're keeping the lights on right now.
That is how we drive revenue.
Clicks on tweets is how we're driving revenue.
So I'm going to, again, present an idea.
It's a classic A-B here.
You're either going to go down path A or go down path B.
Path A is I just have things I think, and I say them on the show.
I have things I think, and I put them on these graphics.
I have things I think, and I order the teams in that order.
That's path A.
Not a lot of people going down that road.
Path B is. I don't actually believe any of this.
And I just walk in, and I tell Prez to throw together teams in a combination that will
elicit the most reaction on the internet.
Forget about credibility.
Forget about reputation.
Forget about integrity.
These words are foreign to us.
All we care about is the E word, engagement.
Never mind the fact that approaches that are founded in the previous three words have led
to us getting more engagement.
We want to get more engagement than we ever could have imagined in 10 lifetimes.
No, we want to torch that to put Mississippi State too high in a week four poll.
By the way, I asked him, what exactly is it you're pushing back on?
I got no reply.
So I don't even know.
I think someone was just angry on the internet, all caps, because I don't even know which
team specifically is he mad West Virginia's ranked.
Is he mad Texas Tech is too low?
I don't know.
Speaking of Texas Tech, someone had a very specific problem.
Hey, Roy.
Reagan's pushing back, but at least Reagan said something about specific teams.
He said Florida gets more credit for an unranked win versus Auburn than Tech does against Houston.
Well, first off, I could make the argument that Auburn was ranked when Florida beat them,
but I won't even do that.
Bradley, if you'll throw the poll back up, you'll notice Houston's not ranked either.
So I guess by that logic, Texas Tech didn't get a ranked win last week.
We got to be fair.
If we're called out, we're not ranked.
We got to call them balls and strikes.
We got to call them fairly here.
I don't think there's a ton of separation per se in these resumes.
We got Florida 13.
We got Texas Tech 18.
I think outside of their wins last week, I would say Florida's win on the road against
Auburn is very similar to me to Texas Tech's close win at home versus Houston.
At least similar.
They're at least in the ballpark of value.
Florida's blown two other inferior teams out.
I watched.
I watched Texas Tech look really lethargic against Abilene Christian and get taken to
the wire against Oregon State.
That's the separation.
There's not a whole lot of separation.
I actually, I view them as pretty similar resumes right now.
There's going to be wild fluctuation in this.
Wild fluctuation in this.
I could, I could, let me think.
Ole Miss could solidify their spot further on the number one position.
Texas.
Jesse, you think Texas could take over number one after this week?
Let's just think that through.
Ole Miss goes into number 13's building and wins.
And Texas goes to number 16 and wins.
I think you got to maintain status quo there.
Then again, Ohio State could hang 115 on Illinois and upset everything.
You know what the biggest disappointment here is?
I thought this was going to be the week where Georgia was playing a top 10 opponent.
And instead, Oklahoma's not even ranked right now.
Was OU in the AP poll?
No.
So they're not in this poll or the fake poll.
They're not in either poll.
Well, I welcome the feedback.
I just do more than this is clickbait.
Like, give me the specific pushback.
I told you, a lot of people pushed back on Louisville and I ended up agreeing with them.
They changed my mind on my own commissioner's poll.
Because that's the way a commissioner should think.
He should listen to the people.
Not, not mindless private equity representatives.
It's a shame, Jesse.
We got to keep the soul in college football.
They're watching us in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Tucky, is that where Patty Loveless is from?
Prez, look up where Patty Loveless is from.
I thought it was Pikeville, Kentucky.
Oh, great 90s country artist.
Orlando, Florida is tuned in too.
Are you giving me a thumbs up in a sense that that's where Patty Loveless is from, Jesse?
Or you just had your thumb up for no reason?
Two thumbs up.
Have we located the whereabouts of Patty Loveless' hometown yet?
I'm not moving along in the show until we find out.
Prez, if you're shrugging because you don't know,
Patty Loveless is, then we got a bigger conversation to have.
Yes, Pikeville, Kentucky.
Two thumbs up.
She's great.
I could go on and on and on about,
because I got a solid theory that Patty Loveless is the most underrated country artist ever.
She had a ton of hits.
I'm just saying Patty Loveless belongs in conversations that people don't put her in.
And I'm not just talking about because she's from Pikeville, Kentucky either.
Do you picture someone driving around Pikeville right now?
Say, what is happening?
Patty Loveless, Here I Am is a great song.
You need to be really sad to listen to it, but it's a great song.
Please like the video and subscribe to the channel.
To the dozens of you who are left after that,
please like the video and subscribe to the channel.
We move on.
Big game in the SEC this week.
And no, I'm not talking about any of the first dozen that you thought about.
I'm talking about Minnesota.
I was just seeing if I caught you.
I accidentally wrote Minnesota at Mississippi State.
So they're going to play a home-and-home in the same season.
No.
Bradley, it goes without saying, you want to clip that out from the VOD.
Missouri at Mississippi State.
Saturday night, 745 Eastern kick on SEC Network.
This is a huge game.
This is a ranked matchup.
And you could argue, if you looked at the SEC schedule this week,
in terms of just like raw profile,
this is like the sixth highest profile game.
And yet it is still must-see.
How blessed are we?
As a people, how blessed are we?
As a college football people,
we went from seeing Lenora Sellers and Kamario Taylor on the same field last week
to this.
This week, seeing Austin Simmons come to town.
Not with Ole Miss, but with Missouri to face Mississippi State.
This game happened last year.
Now, it looked a lot different last year than it will this year.
Missouri won this game 49-27 last year.
Do you know why?
There's a late paper popper on this game.
3-26 to 1-10 rushing edge.
And that was with Ahmad Hardy going for about three hundo on the ground.
Yeah.
He.
Notably, will not play in this game.
Also, Mississippi State had two pick sixes thrown in this game, I believe.
Yeah.
So, I can't predict the pick sixes.
I can tell you Hardy's not in there.
Now, I can tell you Jamal Roberts will be.
So, we'll see what Missouri does on the ground.
But this whole game probably comes down to that.
To the degree of how good Missouri can be on the ground.
Because Zach Garnett has Mississippi State's run D at 35th nationally right now.
And Roberts has 63th.
33 carries for 300 yards so far this year.
They haven't really incorporated Austin Simmons in the ground game much at all.
So, you got to think it's a tailback heavy rushing profile.
One thing Missouri did not have last year that they have the potential of this year
is a QB who could throw for 300 on you.
Austin Simmons, if he's on in any given afternoon or evening, could just go off.
Could put up that kind of stat line on you.
He's got a good receiver.
He's got a great receiver.
And he himself has got a live arm.
So, question becomes, is it too early to have the profiles on these teams?
I've asked this three times in this show already.
It's not week nine.
We haven't figured everything out about these teams.
Going into week four, all across the country this Saturday,
you're going to see teams do a lot of firsts.
So, in this game, what does that mean?
Because you could look at third down.
You could look at red zone touchdown percentage right now through three weeks.
And it would pretty heavily lean you towards picking Mississippi State in this game.
Missouri on third down is 78th in the country right now.
Mississippi State's D is 22nd.
But South Carolina last week could have put that game away early against Mississippi State
if they had been able to score sevens instead of being held to threes.
Now, Mississippi State gets a ton of credit for that.
Point being, does that carry over?
Okay, because Mississippi State's defense, 10th in the country right now
in red zone touchdown percentage.
Missouri's offense, in the hundreds.
It's still early enough where that could totally invert itself over one four-quarter period.
The reason I mention that is Mississippi State's favored by six and a half
in part because of that being baked in.
But if it inverts itself, if Missouri goes up 14 to three early,
because they convert their first two red zone trips into touchdowns,
well, then that stat profile is meaningless for the rest of the game.
Because you're seeing in real time, wow, like the crux of the profile of this game has flipped itself.
It's just something to look for early with any game.
Also, what's the mental state for Mississippi State?
So they have gone on the road two weeks in a row and they've won big games.
I mean, in high profile fashion.
So, you know, mentally, just historically speaking, this would be sort of a do-down week for them.
Kind of an old school betting term, but it's a psychological thing more than anything.
Betters just use it as a term, but it's true.
And I think because of that, it's a really high variance game.
Sometimes teams are so good that they just continue to scale and scale and scale.
And like people kept waiting for Indiana to suffer from a do-down spot last year.
It never happened.
Maybe it just doesn't happen for Mississippi State.
It's extremely high variance game though.
You got some really explosive quarterbacks here.
You got really explosive wide receiver potential.
And so therefore any place, the antithesis of Iowa, Michigan, any play could go 80 to the house.
You could flip away from this game.
You could go check on another score and come back and 14 unanswered have gone up in like two minutes and change.
That's the kind of game we got here.
Let's take a look at what the model thinks.
FanDuel's got Mississippi State right now and it's Thursday evening right now.
Mississippi State minus six and a half.
The model disagrees in a big way.
The model that has loved Mississippi State only has state minus two.
It thinks the number's way too big.
And I, for dynamics reasons, am riding with the model here.
I'm taking, I guess you could call it the fence ride approach.
I am taking Missouri plus six and a half.
If I had to be pinned down, and I'm not sure I do, but if I had to be pinned down,
I would probably take Mississippi State by the slimmest of margins to win the game outright.
But I love Missouri plus the points here.
And if Eli Drinkwit screws it up for me, he screws it up for me.
But I'll ride with the Tigers plus the points.
We're about to do the viewer's guide.
This thing's loaded.
This thing is loaded.
I've had a lot of fun doing this on our Thursday show.
I was just, I'm delaying for the lower third right now.
That's what I'm doing.
Waiting.
Boom!
Seat Geek.
A lot of you going on the road this weekend, I know you are.
I know you are, and I know you're looking around and you're saying,
if I've got to spend this money on tickets, okay, I'll spend this money on tickets.
But good news, you don't have to spend that much money on tickets,
although you will have to spend some, but not nearly as much as the total would indicate.
Because if you go to Seat Geek and you click all your tickets,
you select all your tickets, get you some parking, whatever you want,
and then you get.
If you get to the checkout, there's a little promo code option.
If you put in PATE10, P-A-T-E-1-0, I'll get you 10% off any order up to $200.
I'll get you $20 off any order above $200, and voila, you've still spent money,
but not quite as much.
That's the PATE state guarantee.
We can't totally give you what you want, but we can let you keep a little more of what you want,
which in this case is just cash.
There you go.
SeatGeek.com.
Make your purchases there.
PATE10.
PATE10 at checkout.
Here we go.
It pays to discover.
Terms apply.
ChatGPT can do more than answer questions.
ChatGPT work is built for bigger projects with multiple steps.
Then, ChatGPT can help turn all of that into something useful.
It can also use approved apps, connected tools, files, and protocols.
It can also use a browser context to help move the work forward.
Hey, this is James from Raiders of the Lockdown.
Lost Podcast.
They're focusing on the scene, not on dealing with managing internet.
Insurance claim.
is diagnosed with cancer?
which means some of the bravest warriors
Warriors you'll ever meet aren't professional athletes or superheroes.
The week four college football schedule is loaded.
There are multiple windows in the day where I think you're going to need like 19 screens
to view all this stuff.
So we do the viewer's guide, sort of a hack to making sure you see what you need to see
every Saturday.
We do this on the Thursday show.
Let's start with the early window on Saturday.
Obviously, your main screen is going to be that one right there.
I would say Texas, Tennessee will be on most main screens.
Don't Tread on Saturday Tour will be there.
That's where I'll be.
I'll be on the sideline for that one.
Cannot wait.
But that's not all that's happening in this noon eastern-ish window.
Because on your second screen, I would encourage you to keep an eye on that game down there.
Wake Forest is at Louisville.
Wake has been very sneaky, better than expected so far this year.
Louisville is just flat out a good team.
They just beat SMU.
They played Ole Miss very close.
I'd keep an eye on that game.
That's a noon kickoff on ESPN.
It'll be highly visible.
But a Texas game, that Tennessee game is going to get a lot of attention.
Keep an eye on that.
And I think also you've got to monitor at least Illinois-Ohio State.
Chances are Ohio State gets out to a big lead.
That's the big noon kickoff on Fox.
And maybe you don't need to watch the second half unless you're a Buckeye fan.
But you've got to monitor that one.
I would say also keep an eye on Big Ten Network at 1.30.
These are all eastern times.
Because UCLA at Maryland, Mike Loxley's seat is red hot.
They really needed the Virginia Tech game and didn't get it.
And so there's a lot of noise and speculation around that right now.
So that could be a more sadistic viewing experience,
but a viewing experience worth having nonetheless.
And way off the radar, but noon on ACC Network,
this game should not be in question in the second half.
Virginia Tech is a double-digit favorite at Boston College.
Games should be in hand.
The reason I'm mentioning that is because if we can get Virginia Tech to,
to beat Boston College,
Pitt, I am guessing, as a 52-point favorite, will beat Bucknell.
That would set up undefeated Pitt and undefeated Virginia Tech next Friday night.
We would really see James Franklin's first inter-Sandman
on the standalone national platform.
But first things first, you've got to beat Boston College.
Okay, you go to midday.
Endless choices here.
The midday and primetime windows are insane.
So I think on your main screen,
here at 3.30 Eastern on ABC,
most of you, I would guess, would have Ole Miss, Florida.
I think a number of people would choose Oklahoma, Georgia.
That's 3.30 on ESPN.
Your Big Ten game is also well worth tuning into here.
The CBS game, Jenny Dell is going to be on the field there
to see sort of a first-to-20 type affair between Iowa and Michigan.
Any of those, I think, would warrant main screen attention.
But we have to monitor the 3.30 ESPN 2 window.
Because that is when Boise and Western Michigan takes place.
And that is one of the biggest G6 games of the year.
It's one of the biggest college football games this weekend.
Not just out of the G6.
And so Kalamazoo is going to be ground zero there.
That's going to be taking place at the same time as Iowa-Michigan.
So a big afternoon in the state of Michigan there.
And then. There is like a cluster of games
that I think you may need to pull out some old laptops for.
Even if you've got the quad box up on YouTube TV,
maybe you still need to dust off an old phone and charge it up.
Because you're going to need some extra screens
depending on how far down this rabbit hole you want to go.
Vandy at Auburn could get interesting.
At 4.15 on SEC Network,
I am still maintaining that at 5 o'clock on Peacock,
a shake of the head here,
Johnson at Penn State bears close watching,
at least early.
Nebraska goes on the road to Michigan State.
Will Compton is very confident in this game.
That's Big Ten Network at 5 o'clock.
And out of nowhere,
Houston is going to Statesboro,
not for a sightseeing adventure,
but they're actually going to play Georgia Southern.
And that's on ESPNU at 4 o'clock.
All those games I want to keep an eye on.
Then we get to primetime.
And in primetime,
our main screen probably needs to be on Oregon at USC.
That's what mine would be on.
That is the 7.30 NBC game.
That's one of the games of the year in the Big Ten.
But your secondary screen,
or maybe your main screen,
depending on your rooting interest,
has to be either on Texas A&M at LSU,
7.30 on ABC.
The ESPN game at 7 o'clock is South Carolina at Alabama.
But then you need to closely monitor
this game in Morgantown.
6-1 has a big game here at 7 o'clock.
They got Oklahoma State at West Virginia.
Earlier this week,
Taylor LeJuan put shades of this quarterback matchup
into Josh Allen versus Trinidad Chambliss terms.
He didn't get a lot of agreement on it,
but he did make the comparison.
So we got Michael Hawkins Jr.
We got Drew Mestemaker.
It's a real big style contrast kind of game.
So that one will be a lot of fun.
I think ESPN Plus at 6,
bears close watching.
That's Old Dominion versus James Madison.
Prez telling me that James Madison hasn't lost
to a team from the state of Virginia
since color television or something like that.
It's been a long time.
Those are unofficial stats,
but it's been a long time.
And by the way,
just like a giant circle here,
at 7.45 Eastern,
think about how many games I've already listed.
7.45 Eastern.
You've got a ranked versus ranked matchup
on ESPN Plus.
That's on SEC Network.
That's Missouri versus Mississippi State.
It's a loaded window.
Also, the rental counter special,
as I call it.
It's the game where you walk up to a bar
or a rental counter
and there's a TV on that you have no control over.
And so whatever's on it,
you have to watch.
That's probably the only way you're watching
Tulsa versus Arkansas.
But Tulsa,
even with their backup quarterback likely going,
is only a seven and a half point dog in Fayetteville.
And that's at 8 o'clock on SEC Network Plus
for those interested.
Your late window.
There's a good one here.
Minnesota's at Washington at 11 p.m. Eastern time on Fox.
But also, a game to monitor.
It's going to be a little off the radar.
I'll grant you that.
Oregon State has been impressive.
Like, Jamarcus Shepard has Oregon State
looking a lot better than people expected.
They play at UTEP at 9 Eastern
on Mountain West Network.
Network Plus?
We looked for 30 minutes
and still couldn't find access.
But you got to start somewhere.
So at least we're looking for it.
They're only a 10 and a half point favorite at UTEP.
So let's keep an eye on that.
Of course, before Saturday,
Friday night is going to hit us tomorrow night.
And Northwestern's at Indiana.
So you got Curt Signetti.
Maybe the first time a lot of you
watch an Indiana game this year.
That's at 7 o'clock on Fox.
Pay close attention to this Clemson and Cal game.
So that is a 10-30 Eastern time kick.
Clemson is a one and a half point favorite at Cal.
Dabo Swinney in Berkeley, California.
Can you imagine?
The scenes, can you imagine that?
Also, I need to let you know,
I'll probably tweet this out tomorrow.
That game is probably when we're going to do Friday Night Lions
because we've got our live show happening
tomorrow night in Knoxville.
So I'll get back to the hotel a little bit later
than I normally would.
So I think I'm going to wait until halftime
of Clemson versus Cal to do Friday Night Lions,
which happens exclusively on Instagram Live
at JoshPateCFB.
Make sure you're following.
This is a loaded weekend.
Do not let me catch you taking place
in recreational activities.
The pumpkin patch should be empty.
The apple orchards should be empty.
God help anyone who got invited to a wedding this Saturday.
All you can do is pray for those people.
Congratulations to the happy couples though.
Let's move on.
One more thing to get to
and then I got some best bets
and then we got to get out of here.
As you may or may not have noticed,
scheduling is kind of messed up
in college football right now.
And some of you have been pointing this out to me.
John from Winter Haven, Florida said,
you like to say you're not an SEC homer,
yet almost all of your Tuesday show
is SEC game breakdowns.
You do realize the ACC and the Big 12
and the G6 have games and storylines too, right?
Yeah, sure do.
We spent a fair amount of time this week
talking about the SEC game breakdowns.
We spent a fair amount of time talking about them
as it made sense to talk about them.
I'm actually with the spirit of this, John.
I'm actually with where your heart is.
Here's where John's heart is.
I don't want to listen to a show
that just talks about the SEC.
I want to listen to a national college football show
talk about the entire country.
John, I'd love to.
I'd love to if the rest of the country
would offer a slate that made sense to talk about.
So full disclosure,
this started,
this started picking up steam Sunday.
Not Tuesday.
The Sunday show was loaded with. SEC reactions. We got a ton of feedback saying, man, this was such an SEC-heavy show. I said,
I know. What would you like me to do? Because we talked SMU-Louisville like we talked about
some non-SEC games. The Big Ten schedule was inexplicably horrible last week. It's on your
screen right now. You stop me when you see the game that you wanted me to take any time to break
down on Sunday night. It's not there. Virginia Tech, Maryland, Rutgers, USC. Jesse, I don't see
anything more high-profile than that. Notre Dame dog-walked Michigan State. There's nothing to talk
about. Inexcusable, by the way. That got presented as a league-wide week two schedule or week three
schedule, whatever it was. Horrible. Should never be allowed to happen. There's a chance it doesn't
happen next year. There is a chance that the whole week zero thing,
totally upends the way the schedules work. But as for now, do you have the SEC week four schedule?
So just this weekend, to go back to his Tuesday point, Tuesday nights when we predict the games,
we got Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, A&M, LSU, Missouri, Mississippi State. We had to wait
until the Thursday show to preview. We didn't even do an OU Georgia preview, did we, Jesse?
That would have done huge traffic for us. So old clickbait Pate looked and said,
we don't want those clicks.
Even I thought it was too SEC heavy. We didn't even fit Vandy, Florida or South Carolina, Alabama
or Vandy, Auburn or South Carolina, Alabama on this graphic. You've got the league in the SEC
pumping out week after week of this stuff. And the Big Ten gave us crap last week. And it's not a
whole lot better this week. There's nothing I can do about it. I wish I could. And that gets me back
to my point I was about to make. Next year, week zero becomes week one.
And there's a lot of talk amongst these conferences that they may sort of change their scheduling
dynamics going into the year. I hope so. But this should be a moot point because in a world where
media rights deals have nine figures and 10 figures and the money is really this big,
scheduling should not even be in the hands of schools. Schedules should be dictated to you.
Indiana should be told who they're going to play and when. Auburn should be told who they're going
to play.
And when. The fact that we still schedule the way we do is so antiquated, man. That is like
1970s style logic. I picture executives at Fox looking at this landscape right now and like
ripping whatever hair they have remaining out of their heads. Can you imagine spending that kind
of money? I'd be the same way in the Big Ten. We are what we think is the premier conference in
college football right now. And we are a total afterthought. We are a total afterthought. We are
a total afterthought early in the year. And the dudes down south, I mean, internally, the coaches
hate them because they've gone to nine league games and they think they're going to get boxed
out of the playoffs. But in terms of just watchability, it's not even close through the
first three weeks of the season so far. So firstly, buddy, I wish I had control of it. I wish I was
the centralized scheduling authority because it wouldn't look like this if I controlled it.
Number two, here's what I hate.
And here's what should be totally done away with. And this is a Big Ten centric viewpoint right now.
They're sort of holding scheduling hostage as a bargaining chip to expand the playoff.
Their stance is, well, we'll schedule up if you'll expand the playoff to 24.
You know, everyone loves to bash the SEC, including their own coaches in some cases. But
to the SEC's credit, as far as a viewer is concerned, they didn't wait until they got
a guarantee of a bigger playoff, therefore less risk.
In scheduling more games, they just did it anyway. Hats off to them. The Big Ten looks around and
says, we'll schedule up, we'll add another conference game, or in their case, we'll add
the requirement that all of our schools have to play one power four out of conference opponent
soon as you expand the playoff. It should never come down to that. It should never even be
their option. Can you imagine the Washington Commanders going to the NFL and saying,
look, we'll play the AFC West, but you're going to have to expand the playoffs. The door gets slammed
in their face. Why? Because the Washington Commanders get told who they're going to play.
That's what the money's for. You get all that money from a major network, and in exchange,
that league and that network's going to determine who you play, when you play them,
and we'll listen to your input. We'll value your input. But it's our word, not yours. At the end
of the day, we're going to play the AFC West. We're going to play the AFC West. We're not interested in watching you play
Howard in week one if you're getting this big a cut of a media rights check. So I cannot stand
when I hear people talk about scheduling and saying the same stuff they used to say in the
four-team playoff era, now that we're in the 12-team era, about what they won't do until we
go to a 24-team era. It's garbage, and it shouldn't even be relevant because it shouldn't be in their
hands. At the same time, we're going to play the AFC West. We're
You are right. In the current landscape, you are right to be concerned that if you schedule tougher
and you're a 9-3 team, the playoff committee is going to punish you for it. That's why the
playoff committee protocol should be overhauled just as much as this backwards way of thinking
should be overhauled. And what I mean by that is there should be some radical examples in the cards.
There should be some circumstances where that playoff committee,
properly takes into account strength of record to the point where they put a 9-3 in over an 11-1.
And I know that sounds asinine, but you've got to understand the extremes that we're looking at
right now. You've got Texas. I'm just using them as an example. Jesse, would you venture to think
the sixth toughest team Texas will play this year would be right around the toughest Texas Tech would
play? Or maybe the toughest Virginia would play? That'd be pretty close to accurate, right?
We'll probably get a one-game benefit of doubt. Like a Texas 9-3 may make it in over a 10-2
from that kind of bracket. But there's no two-game separation in logic right now.
I doubt that committee has it in them to put in a 9-3 team over an 11-1 power four team.
And the bottom line is, that shouldn't be how you look at this at all. You should have your
strength of record metrics, and it should be pretty hard and fast to find. And if it says a 9-3
belongs in over an 11-1, so be it. That's how you rectify that. You don't have to expand the
playoff to fix this. You need to, number one, make it a moot point because it shouldn't be up to them
who they play and when they play them. And then number two,
a playoff committee ought to view this properly instead of reverting back to you are what your
record says you are logic. Because in college football, no, you are not all the time.
Awarding season ever at FanDuel. You want proof? Well, the Pick'Em contest over there
is totally free to play. You don't need a dime in your account to play it. And you're competing
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out of the quarter million that entered took home $2,000.
$2,000 in bonus bets. Each. Do you know why? Because they made their selections. That's all
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FanDuel.com slash Josh Pate. If you have not signed up over there and you're looking to do so.
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MA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Massachusetts. Or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text
HOPE-NY in New York. Before we get out of here, I'm going to add two games to the Ramen Noodle
Express. The rest of these, and there will be more, will be filled in on Friday Night Lines.
That'll be at halftime of Clemson Cal, Friday night on Instagram Live at JoshPateCFB. Make sure
you're following me over there. That's JoshPateCFB.com. And I'll see you next time.
The only place you're going to see it. We went 8-2 last week. I can't state it any plainer than
this. You made a lot of money if you watched Friday Night Lines last week. Here's the games
we're already on. Cincy plus 6.5. Old Dominion plus 5.5. UL Monroe plus 13.5. I'm adding two
totals here. I'm adding Texas, Tennessee under 55.5. That's the game we'll be at. And I'm adding
Ole Miss, Florida over 58.5. So a couple of totals there. We're one and one on total
so far, Jesse. You would think we're
1 in 10, but we're 1 in 1.
I'm going to add several more. If you go to FanDuel, by the way, the Ramen Noodle Express tab
is right there on FanDuel. So even if you miss Friday Night Lines, which I don't advise,
it's very entertaining. But even if you miss it and you're wondering what games is he on,
it's right there. You go to college football on FanDuel, there is literally a Ramen Noodle
Express tab there where you can click it. Now, here's the downside. If you're waiting that late,
a lot of times these numbers have moved. So you're not getting the same numbers we do.
So you really still need to be tuned into the show throughout the week
and Friday Night Lines at JoshPateCFB on Instagram tomorrow night. Okay. Loaded weekend coming. We're
going to have a lot of extra content over on Instagram, actually. Perez will be following
me around all weekend. It's going to be loaded. You've seen what it's like the first few weeks
we've been on the road. This will be at a different level, I think. A lot going on.
Appreciate you guys so much. We'll be back Sunday night to break it all down here. Until then,
see a lot of you in Knoxville.
It's a couple of days for the rest of you. Let's enjoy the games. Let's be safe and let's have fun.
For Director Bradley, Producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. We'll see you back here Sunday night. Until then, God bless.
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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
Discover Cash Back offers 5% cash back on up to $1,500 in purchases across different categories each quarter, such as groceries, gas, and restaurants.
ChatGPT Work enables users to turn project inputs like briefs, data, and feedback into actionable outputs like analysis, decks, or workflows, with full control over the final result.
GEICO provides peace of mind by handling insurance claims and supporting individuals through life events, allowing them to focus on their goals without financial stress.
Hyundai Hope on Wheels has raised over $300 million in childhood cancer research over 28 years, with a call to action to support bringing every child warrior home.
The college football viewer's guide highlights a packed schedule with multiple games, emphasizing the need for multiple screens and strategic viewing.
A strong emphasis is placed on early-season unpredictability, with teams like Mississippi State and Missouri showing high variance due to evolving performance and mental states.
The show promotes engagement through interactive tools, such as a SeatGeek promo code offering discounts on tickets, and encourages audience participation through themed content.
The host critiques rigid, outdated ranking systems, advocating for merit-based, reactive evaluations that reflect real-time team performance and results.
Summary:
The transcript blends financial, technological, and sports-related content into a dynamic, audience-driven narrative. Discover Cash Back is highlighted as a tool for earning cash back on daily spending, with 5% rewards rotating across key categories each quarter. ChatGPT Work is presented as a powerful work tool for complex projects, enabling users to generate structured outputs while maintaining creative control.
GEICO is praised for providing behind-the-scenes support that offers peace of mind, allowing individuals to focus on their goals. A major charitable effort is spotlighted: Hyundai Hope on Wheels, which has invested over $300 million in childhood cancer research, and the call to action urges continued public support. The college football schedule is described as unusually dense and complex, with multiple high-profile games across time zones requiring strategic viewing.
The host emphasizes the volatility of early-season team performance, citing statistical and mental factors that lead to unpredictable outcomes. " The host critiques overly rigid ranking systems, advocating for merit-based, reactive evaluations that adapt to real game results. The overall tone is energetic, self-aware, and community-focused, blending entertainment with practical advice and social responsibility.
FAQs
The Discover Cash Back card earns 5% cash back on up to $1,500 in purchases each quarter across different categories like groceries, gas, and restaurants. The cash back rotates quarterly, so you earn 5% at different places each quarter.
ChatGPT Work helps turn goals and inputs like briefs, data, or project plans into useful outputs such as analyses, trackers, deck outlines, or workflows. You stay in control by reviewing and approving outputs before final selection.
GEICO provides peace of mind by handling insurance claims and helping customers save money, so they can focus on their goals—like a career or family—without worrying about unexpected expenses.
Hyundai Hope on Wheels has raised over $300 million in childhood cancer research over 28 years through support from Hyundai and its dealers. The program has helped save more than 40,000 children.
The Big Red Machine Theory suggests that a team with a strong, long-term identity—like a legendary pro wrestling character—can have a lasting, successful career in college football, potentially leading to a major upset or revival.
The game is seen as a potential upset because Washington has shown inconsistent performance early in the season, and teams with explosive offensives often struggle at the start before improving, creating a high-variance scenario.
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