Week 4 LOCKS 🔒 Best Bets, Against The Spread Picks, Moneyline Sprinkles & More! | Cover 3

(upbeat rock music) Welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast with your host, Chip Patterson, Tom Fonelli, Danny Kennell, and Bob Elliott. It's your call for the best college football coverage from National Signing Day to the National Championship and everything in between. CBS Sports presents the Cover Three Podcast. And welcome back to the Cover Three Podcast. Here on CBS Sports, that's Tom Fonelli, that's Danny Kennell, that's Bob Elliott. I'm Chip Patterson, come into you live, youtube.com/coverthree, and anywhere you get your podcast on a man, thanks for hanging out. Smash that subscribe, smash that like and come and join us in the chat. Hey, hey, hey, the Cover Three tailgate, where they are going. And they are letting you know the locks, the leans, and the ways that they are gonna break down this massive week. Ball State, Kent State, 40 minute lock fight, come and let's go. That's right, we got ranked on ranked on ranked on ranked. We got power conference on power conference. A lot of these warm up games are out of the way. It's time for you to show us what you've got. And unfortunately, we've got to show you what happened last week. Okay, let's fire it up so that then we can get it out of here. It is the recap of last week's action. But Elliott, four in five week for you, yeah, four in five week for you, the wins were, Louisville minus one and a half, Florida minus two and a half, FIU plus seven, and the Virginia Tech Maryland over 53 and a half. The losses were North Carolina plus three and a half, Coastal plus five, Arkansas state plus 20, Stanford plus 10 and a half, and the Troy Missouri over 49 and a half, notes from the week. Yeah, so all four of the winners were pretty rock and chair easy. I mean, Coastal, dude, like those fumbled punts just killed us. I bet that again, for sure, Stanford, clearly the wrong side, Troy Missouri, which is kind of a slog. I did not see that coming. And Arkansas state just couldn't get us one score. Other, their defense played, you know, pretty well overall. Guys, I don't really like this three star lock thing, but like, I do like it, you know, for this year. It's saving your ass. I mean, look, like, I mean, guys, like Tommy Tengal and Hat over here is, you know, haven't a pretty decent year, except for these three star locks. You know, they just saved my ass. Yeah, 16 and 13 on the season, but leading the way up 7.7 units thanks to the three star locks, which you are three and oh, we will, I mean, I just go ahead and tell you a chip, Danny Tom, combined, oh and nine on the three star locks. So it's, it's hurting, it's, it's hurting us. Four and five week for me, pushing money on the round at the table, except for the big old three stack I had on Nebraska first half team total. But let's talk about those wins. Alabama team total over 33 and a half, that's a win. USC Rutgers over 59 and a half, that's a win. Georgia minus 24 and a half, that's a win. UTSA, Texas, first half under 31 and a half. That's a win picked up a loss on that SMU Louisville first half under 30 and a half picked up a loss on the under 43 and a half in Carolina Clemson. Appstate team total over 34 and a half a loss. And then we mentioned the Nebraska team total app state, we discussed this. I think on the instant reaction show, the game barely got started. It seemed by the time the instant reaction show was going, whatever, that's going to happen. SMU Louisville was way off that no one wanted that was to a game that absolutely lived up to the high total that it had. Four and five for me 12 and 18 on the competition for the season. Four and five also is going to be the record for Danny Cannell coming in with Willie Fritz and Houston plus the eight and a half. Also, cash in that Ole Miss plus two and a half Arizona state minus four and a half and the UTSA first half plus 17 and a half losses where the Houston, Texas tech under 52 and a half, the Florida Auburn under 53 and a half. He was also with me with the Carolina Clemson under and then Kansas state minus 20 against two lane was your was your three star. UTEP Michigan under also did not cash due to Michigan's offensive explosion. Yeah Michigan caught fire did not expect that Kansas state two lane kind of started off on the wrong foot and then it looked like Kansas state wasn't going to come back make me look good did not do that. The UNC Clemson was one of the worst beats we've had of the season so far. If you watch the way that one unfolded with the late touchdown, that one sucked. Yeah, I'm just got to go down young man. I don't think we should have to go down. I think Chris Starlock should be optional. I don't know. I think you stand with your wins and losses and the units are the competition for us and so that's where we've got to be able to leave the door open for big comebacks or big blown leads. That's that's the that's the thing that I think is going to make this fun is when we get into week seven week eight, somebody could be able to charge back if they hit a whole bunch of three star locks or maybe Bud goes cold or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he runs away with this thing. We'll see time for nearly one and seven for you. The win was Houston. You got your win out of the way early. So that was that that was good. Losses included the SMU Louisville under Florida Auburn under the Indiana first half minus 26 and a half. The New Mexico Oklahoma over the end. You're with there with the app state team total as well. South Alabama minus six and a half Missouri team total over 37 and a half. And then your Colorado Northwestern 48 ends up being a poosh at 41 to seven thoughts on on what it was. Those were Tom's picks. This week text is going undefeated. Let's go. Your name's text for Nelly. It's text now unless I lose this week too. All right, so so does this mean if if you run the table, does the cowboy hat stay for the rest of the season? Oh yeah, for sure. Oh yeah, so I was on what you didn't have this on before the show, correct? No, it was a surprise. And consider me alarmed. I'm fired up. Let's put that behind us and I can't wait to hear what text for Nelly's got for us. So I ask all of y'all gentlemen, you all ready to lock it up? Yes, sir. Let's go. Since 2005, the under the games between servicemen. It's 40, 9 and 1. We're making love. Give me an over and this one as well. A little two for one special I was sick. I last week y'all were watching the good games. I was live bedding a hill at a UL in Kentucky. My blue plate special five star locks are coming. Five star master lock lock it. I love these locks. I'm I'm living to die on every point of every cover. From the locking chair to your eyes and ears. Let's begin. It was we always do with some of that week night action. And a reminder that our Saturday locks can be found on Saturday mornings on CBS sports HQ that it is a lot of what you're about to see. For those of you who are watching live in the tailgate. But if you want to be able to, I don't know, create a little counter programming in that 10 o'clock hour to whatever might be on some screens. We've got great options for you. It is this very locks pod. Okay, Thursday night Liberty and Coastal. Fun gay, you know, that's it is the Jamie Chad well bowl. You know, so we get to have a nice little return to Conway. Does anybody got a lock? I do not. I'm excited. Oh, chips got one are cool. Whoa. It's going to be windy in the beach. Conway South Carolina is not exactly like 20 something like it. We're not talking crazy. I'm just telling you, it's a little gnarly. You know, it's that change of season. It'd been hot for a long time. The cold weather's coming behind it. The fronts are battling. And do you know what else we have right here? We've got a couple of offenses. And the coastal one in general that just just likes to take these deep shots. I mean, Duce Bailey is a player. Yeah, he comes over with Ryan Beard from Missouri State. And if you just sit back there and chuck in it. And I'll tell you, Crosswinds ain't great for leaning back and chucking it. It might make the accuracy, which was already a little bit of a challenge, a little bit tough. I see this one being a game that could be very tight could be very competitive. And in that sense, once we start to get into those later stages, later stages of the game, do we maybe see not as many chances taken? I just see a lower score in kind of gnarly, early fall environment out there in Conway South Carolina. So I'll take the under I believe we're at 50 and a half. Yes, sir. Nothing else. All right, let's turn our attention to Friday. Where we got some interesting games. Got the Indiana Ho-Hoo-Hoo-Hoo-Jers going to be hosting North Western. We mentioned earlier on Big Game Breakdown, kind of a fun Army Navy double header. Army playing at Temple in the afternoon, 4 p.m. followed by Navy playing at UAB. Sam Cooper said in our college football workroom, an AC/DC concert, I think is partly responsible for this. Philly traffic. We've got to get the hordes of people in. Tom, this blows my mind. I thought the AC/DC concert and the Army temple game would have been the same crowd. You could have had them both together. But we've got to get some people in, some people out to be able to make this thing happen. Friday's on the table. Who's got a lock? Nothing nothing all right, so I've got but I've got a lot of plays on here that are really gonna be about how you start. - Yeah, okay, yeah. It was on the card, it was a cut. I think I know we're going here. - If this was on Bud Elliott's card, - Oh, buddy, it's gotten worse than we think. A lot of plays on here about how you start, but this is gonna be about how you finish Indiana fourth quarter minus three and a half. (laughing) - And if that was on Bud Elliott's card, the color me shocked. Yeah, this is where we're back in the go zone. If you wanted to take Indiana and just lay the points as well, you've obviously seen the recent eligibility rulings, which make this Indiana team only even stronger from a personnel perspective. But this Northwestern team, what it was able to do running away from Colorado has not greatly changed my estimation of what it's gonna be able to do against the Hoosiers, foot on the gas, peddled down. Indiana finishes strong. Indiana fourth quarter minus three and a half. Will the fans still be there? - Ooh. - You cannot complain about the fans not staying if you don't play anybody. That's, I'll just say that. - Yeah, and I don't care if you don't play on those games on anybody, but don't call out your fans for it. - This is a conference game, Danny. They don't really have a choice. They have to play Northwestern. - No, I know, but he complained about the first three games and he said he'll get them back. I'm talking about the first three games. - Yeah, it was embarrassing. - What was almost on your, were you gonna go Indiana first half? - Yeah, I just, I think Sig will be in their ass this week. Well, I watched his press conference. He was pretty mad about some of the sloppiness of the routes. You know, that was close for me. - Yep. I guess you could probably get that 13 and a half is where you might be able to find that one. Anything else on Friday? - There is a late game that's pretty interesting. - Oh, Cal Clemson. - That is an avoid all day for me. - Yeah, I don't want anything to do with it. - You said, I thought this was gonna be your game. - I'm gonna watch it. - I love the wake up. I'm not picking it. - Okay, oh, wow. I'll tell you what, an over in Cal Clemson is a, that takes chest. You know, we used to say that it takes real like gumption to be able to take an under in some of these games. Taking an over in Cal Clemson late as, we could you imagine just sitting there? It's the wee hours of Saturday morning. And you're just, you're just praying at one of these moon balls lands in the right hands. I mean, it's just gonna be a tough spot to be, but obviously very important for the Cal Bears as they've got, as they've got a former ACC champion in town, trying to be able to log a win against the Clemson Tigers to get things going in ACC play. So nothing else, that's it for Thursday and Friday. - Yeah, that's right. - I'm scared. - I hope that's not tentative. Coming up on the other side, we turn our attention to Saturday. And we begin out in Knoxville and ask, upset alert or not. - Next. - Back here on the Cover 3 podcast locks edition and we turn our attention to a loaded Saturday of top matchups in college football. Now we'll begin with some of the biggest ones and there is a massive one with the number one team in the country hitting the road. Again, to play a Tennessee team that we are excited to see them tested against top competition, phase on Brandon has looked as advertised in terms of being a top level quarterback. Now we get to see him against a top level defense. Arch Maining looking to rewrite some of the narratives around the way that he performs on the road, tight spread under a touchdown. Who's got a lock? - Let's go. - Going over. - Really want 55 here, but what, take 55 and a half? It's the best I see on the better out screen. Look, I think that Tennessee's offense is pretty damn good. You know, they got little trouble, maybe at guard spot. I don't think Texas has like serious past rushers on the interior, you know, I think Colin Simmons is expected to play. But then again, he was also dinged, you know, last week he was in street clothes in the second half. We saw some Hollywood smothers who's been an awesome addition for them. I guess he didn't practice yesterday. Our air candidate 24/7 sports reported that. So maybe a little more throwing on both sides for these teams. I think the pace will obviously be there. I think both sides are capable of hitting explosives. You know, Tennessee has been tremendous at preventing explosives this year, but also consider the competition, right? You've had Kent State and Georgia Tech, whose offense is just like they suck. So, you know, like not really anybody who I would expect to hit and expose to play against you. And I think Texas will break out and hit some explosives in this one as well. So go ahead and give me the over here in Texas Tennessee. - I got one, anybody else? Nope, I'll take the balls. I'll take the candy. It's a, yeah, upsettler, sirens, ring 'em. I mean, you gotta go improve it. And I think that this is gonna be a Texas team that in this spot might show you something a little bit closer to its floor. And there could be explanations for that. And I do need Tennessee to be able to prove something when it hasn't, something it has not been asked of it yet. So I understand that that's sort of my edge. But if I think that Tennessee's got a shot to win the game, well, this would also be the last time that they have this kind of rating, right? If I actually do think that they've got the capability to do it to be able to get them at four and a half, right? So you've got a four and a half? - Four and a half, yep. To be able to get them at four and a half, playing at home against a Texas team that has jumped to number one in the rankings. Certainly, but does not look miles better than everybody else who's up there maybe inside that top seven. You could tell me that they're all very, very close. So I really like from the, from the picks perspective, the value of being able to get a live home dog that I think could pull off the upset with a little four and a half wiggle room. - Give me kind of an agreement. Give me Tennessee first quarter plus one and a half. - It's old baby, old baby going back out in the back. Start fast, crowds crazy. They're electric, arch and Texas start a little bit, a little bit shaky, can't hear the snap count. Maybe some pressure, zero, zero, three, three, although that wouldn't help bud. But I think Tennessee could score first too. Gosh, I put one of the best ones out there. - It could also be 14 to 14 at the end of the first quarter. - That is true. - That is true. - That's a road. - Yeah, then that gets everybody there. Hey, we got lots of us to do it. Tom, you are wearing the 10 gallon hat. You are Tex Fernelli. Is, should I take your absence of a lock as a statement of you're read on this game? - No, just, I mean, I don't really see an edge either way in this one. I want to back Tennessee. It's just, I don't really trust them in this spot. So there are concerns like against the spread on the road. The last couple, since joining the SEC, Texas has been bad. So I think Tennessee is probably the smarter play. I just, for me, a young, still mostly inexperienced quarterback who has not played a defense nearly this good in his career. It's hard for me to trust that. - Yep, I'll get it. We talked a lot about which one of these teams is gonna be able to maintain the momentum coming out of week three, Ole Miss hitting the road to go take on the swamp, Florida favored by all those odds-makers who've got all the good drugs out there. Who's got a lock with Ole Miss and the Gators? - I don't know, we have some dental alignment chip. (mimicking animal noises) - All right, so from the start of the season, I have been telling myself that I'm going to fade both LSU and Ole Miss the week after their game. But now that it's here, I've not got it. Ole Miss being a four-point dog and A&M being terrible, we're not necessarily what I had in mind. The disrespect of this Ole Miss line, I believe, will get motivation to the revs. It's such a trap line that it's too trappy. And after what I've seen so far, I'm not about to bet against Trinidad. So I'm looking elsewhere in these games to find an edge if they do indeed have a little emotional hangover. And I've settled on the first half unders. Give me first half under 30 and a half, which is a lot of agreement for me, for sure, in form of Ole Miss. And first half, let's go. And first half under 26 and a half in LSU, A&M. I'll just read the rest of the dentist now, just so we don't need to double dentist. And one more to cleanse the ballot. From the Washington Bet, I was talked into by a listener last week. Vandia's emerged in 3-0, but I have seen some really tough first half from them, including trailing Delaware at halftime. Hey, Delaware's not that bad, guys. All right, I think Curtis is a very bright future, but it just seems like it takes them a while to get into rhythm in games this year. Give me Auburn first half minus 6 and 1/2. And how to? Yeah, to be clear, but the only one you're locking up is the Ole Miss UF first half, right? It's Ole Miss UF, yeah, under 30 and 1/2, yeah. I do think that you're probably going to see a big doe so of Baw early by Florida. I did not think the Florida really wants to get into a shootout against Trenadad Chambles. I also think that Florida, I mean, I think Florida's defensive line is pretty good. And I think that they're going to probably play a little more conservative coverage. I don't think they're coming after Chambles immediately in this one, probably a slower pace game at least to start. Thanks. I'm, I guess I'm fighting you guys, because I'm on the over 58 and 1/2. Welcome up for fun, baby. Shootouts. I'd rather that for Daly. We've been full game. Yeah, I do. just, I just don't really have a ton of faith in either one of these defenses. And like I think part of the letdown factor for Ole Miss could be defensively. They just, I mean, that was their best performance of the year last week against LSU. We could see them go back to normal looking more like they looked against Louisville in the season opener. And then Florida's defense, again, I talked about it, you know, even before they played Auburn when they were playing Campbell and FAU, statistically, like the under the hood numbers weren't exactly impressive based on what you were seeing. And it kind of showed the last week when they allowed 39 points to an Auburn team that could barely move the ball against Baylor. So, yeah, give me the over 58 and a half here. All right. I'm going to just sub more. We're going to make this our three star. I think Auburn got away with crazy holding against Florida. And if I'm Florida, I'm calling a conference office. I'm bitching my ass off about that. Right? Like, hey, look, like, guys, this can't happen again. So I think they're going to be extra vigilant. Maybe a sloppy, you know, penalty, penalty flag field first half, which would help Florida. It would help under it. Because you'd be negating the whole minute. You think they're going to throw it for both teams? Well, I think there would be more more conscious of it. Yeah. More tight. Okay. Uh, give me Florida. I'll lay him. Yeah. Gator Danny's back. Gator Danny's back. I think you're right. Jayden Ball. I think they're going to get a healthy dose of Jayden Ball. As long as Aaron Filo doesn't lay an egg and have a multi multi interception, multi turnover game. I think they're able to control the line of scrimmage run against Ole Miss's defense, which has struggled. I like him giving the gators. Oh heck. Now I got to get in. All right. Florida first half team total over 14 and a half. Buster Faulkner opening scripts have been very good so far for Florida this year. Competition. Obviously should be taken into consideration there. But this is a gator's offense that has come out and I need three scores in the first half. The way that this team has been prepared, the way this team has been buzzing, I think we can get that. So Danny, I found you a minus three that are a readable book. Perfect. Let's go. All right. Yeah. I can't see all that going in this math. I got to have a little skin in the game here. All right. Then Saturday night, Death Valley, Baton Rouge, two teams coming off losses. We called it the anxiety bowl. And now I want to know if anybody wants to put their own anxiety tied to this one. Texas A&M, LSU, who's got a luck? I do. This line moved a lot. I would have much rather had this show on Monday or Tuesday compared to where the number is now. But give me the under 51 and a half. I don't trust A&M to really be able to go on the road here and score a lot of points based on what I've seen from their offense and LSU. I mean, they might blow them out. They might keep it kind of close. Sam Levit might not have a great game. Either way, I think 51 and a half. It's again, let's open it like what 58 something like that. Yeah, we've moved out. I'd have much rather had it 58, but I still like this number. It's probably not past 50 and a half or 50, but at 51 and a half, I'll take a swing. Anybody else? Yeah. I'll land with LSU. I think LSU rebounds. I think you're able to come in there. If you're laying Kiffin, tell them that game against Ole Miss was like such an emotional win for them. And even as much as we've talked about how they could have won that game, they were in the in the game at the end. I think Sam Levit calm down. I think he starts to hit some of those easier throws. I think he plays cleaner. And this is probably me more about Texas A&M, the concerns I have for them with Marcel Reed on the road in this environment. I know he's played good in this space before, but I think Texas A&M is not anywhere close to the team they were last year. So I like LSU. Backs against the wall. Get it done. Tom, there's a good bit of 52 out there for you. Oh, there we go. Yeah, we're coming back. Let's go. Listen, you're not going to be able to, you know, you're not going to be able to get this until a little bit closer to kick off. But I remain pretty entrenched in my double interception parlay here. Just like there's both quarterbacks to throw a pick time together. It feels, feels, feels spot on. Whenever you get this, it will probably be available now, but not necessarily something we've got for the locks board. Yes. I'd prefer that they both march to midfield and then mistrows on third and long and punted. If they want to do that all day, that's perfectly fine with me. What about interceptions in the inser? That works too. That works too. Yeah, I'll take you know, like drive, drive, drive, pick all those things could get it done. Um, then out in Los Angeles, I am expecting better quarterback play. I know this is stunner. I think that Sam Levitt and Marcel Reed will be going on at the same time as Dante Moore against Jade Maiva. And I do think that we're going to have some better quarterback play out in Oregon, USC such a such a massive game packed with narratives. We spent a lot of the week talking about that. We'll continue to, but right now for these moments, I want to know who's got a lock. All right. I do over 61 and a half. I like USC's defense couldn't stop Rutgers. They're not going to be able to stop Oregon. I think Oregon, obviously last week, they took out some frustration on Portland State. I don't think it means that they're, you know, they've solved everything, but I think it was good for their psyche to just go out there and beat the hell out of somebody. So now you're on the road facing a team that you can get fired up for. So hopefully that kind of commitment is there and hopefully you're able to move the ball again effectively against this USC defense that has trouble tackling. And on the flip side, I still don't have a ton of faith in Oregon defensively. And this is a very, very good USC offense. I think the Trojans will be able to move the ball to. And history also suggests that this number is way too low because they've played 10 times since 2009. The average game has featured 74.6 points between them. None have finished with fewer than 54. And even last year, you know, like you talk about the clock rules and things changing and, you know, games being lower scoring. Last year, they played under the same clock rules and scored 69 points. So give me over 61 and a half. Let the children sing. Tom and I three and one unlock agreements. These are two of my favorite quarterbacks that I do think are going to deliver. It is a fast track. Weather should be perfect. There are a lot of offensive weapons for both sides. I know USC doesn't have Trent Mosley, but they didn't seem to miss them last week. I still think Lincoln Riley is one of the best offensive minds. I don't trust Oregon's defense yet to be that dominant force. And even if they do get pressure, my off is pretty good at getting rid of the ball, find enough space to make some of those throws. And I look at all the talent on Oregon's offense. I think they are getting better. Maybe that was the big confidence builder, but I do think they're kind of getting acclimated to a new play collar. I like a high scoring game. I've got, this is way too specific. I should not, well, I should not drop Oregon first half team total over 16 and a half. That's too specific. You want to know why? Because the ducks are going to win the damn football game. I'm just going to take Oregon and lay these points. Okay. Like this is a team that is on paper better than USC. USC has played in performance, maybe a shade better than what we've gotten from Oregon and certainly from the projections of what we're going to get. So yeah, Tom, you mentioned it. I do think it's a high scoring game. Very clearly, I was targeting the idea that Oregon's offense is going to be able to get out and move. But as we're just sitting here laying it all out, like, godly, I just, I don't see Oregon losing this game. Famous last words, I'm sure. And you want to know why they're going to be famous? Because that's my three star luck. We're going to take the ducks and we're going to drop that three star on it. And we're going to get these stars up and running. We're going to look like a team that's got 19 NFL draft picks. Skodox. What happened to USC chip? Oh, I mean, dude, Mike, he's, he's turned his back on Lincoln. Well, listen, it's because you can't spell lack of institutional control without it. I can't see LLM. All right. It's time for the producer. Oh, oh. Oh, well, where are you? Where is he? Oh, tap test to do too many things. Yeah, can we hear the producers? Yeah, we can't. All right, all right. That's all that matters. There we are. Yeah. You striker in a cabana. Where is a striker? Oh, my gosh, striker. Whoa. Are you in? I can't let Danny have all the views. I had to get one in. These producer picks are paying off. That is a sweet sunset in Greece. Where are you? Meek and O's. Where are you? We're in Santorini for Mikey's wedding. Let's go cross the globe. All right, producers. What's the producer pick? Well, if you can't beat him, join him. Chip, you got the lock fight when to knock off the producer picks. Perfect record. We are now three and one. So we're going to do a lock agreement with Tom and Danny. It's text now. It's text. It's text. Thank you. We're hopping on the over with big text and DK in the words of J Cole. Fumi wants shame on you. Fumi twice cannot put the blame on you. USC defense gave up 35 points. Mr. Rutgers last week, what the hell was that? No, we did not see that coming. We thought 42 points from USC would still cash that over. So let's join them. Oregon's gonna be putting up points. USC's gonna be putting up points when they met last year in Eugene. There are 69 points scored. Nice. - Nice. - Striker. I'm gonna pull up the graphic for you. - Okay, I'll try and follow along. We'll see how this goes. All right, so since 2022, you can see these are the first and third scoring offenses in all of FBS. We think it'll continue. I'm out here, I'm gonna see the Coliseum next week, but the next graphic that Taff shows, we're gonna head to the Coliseum this week because Lincoln Riley at home with USC, they put up 42.8 points a game. They also still allow 23. So we're gonna go over 61 and a half, easy, get back on the winning way as help pay for this trip and I'll see you guys soon. - Hi, Striker, be safe, have fun. Tell Mikey we said hello. Awesome. - We need the George W drop after the full me wants. Can't get fooled again. - We need that drop in there for that one. - I don't know, I don't know how good Striker's geography is. I don't know how good his geography is, but I hope he understands the Coliseums in Italy and not Greece. - He's saying, he's doing a little exit. The wedding's this weekend and he's gonna galavant for a little bit. Apparently this promotion to cover three producers, just lining and producer picks. They're just lining Striker's pockets for international travel. - We should say thanks to the audience. Guys, like number one Apple podcast like three weeks ago, number two last week, back number one this week. Like y'all are the best. - Yeah, cover three 10. - Thank you for sending our producers to Greece. (laughing) - And making Taff's job so much harder here on this, on this Locke Thursday. Okay, anything else on Oregon USC? All right. Then that's right. Big time on CBS. We'll feature the Iowa Hawkeyes. Heading to Ann Arbor to go play the Michigan Wolverines. Big time, of course, we'll feature Brad Nessler. Charles Davis, Jenny Dell. Be sure to come and jump in so that you can see all of the college football today action from in studio with Zuck and the guys. So who's got a Locke? - No, I got to lean the Locke. - Okay. - What you got, Daniel? - I mean, do we need to break this down anymore? They ain't scoring out there. There can be no points on the board. They ain't low enough. It's down at 38 and a half, or can I still get 39 and a half? - There's, let's see. - It doesn't matter. This has 13 to 10 written all over it. I mean, I am not sold the Bryce Underwood is fixed. Jason Beck, they did have a lot of offense production last week. I got burned on a Michigan total last week, but not this week because Phil Parker and crew are coming to town. I think Iowa's gonna struggle to score points as well against Michigan's defense. This is a classic Big 10 rock fight under all day. - I get you 39, but the 39 and a half is a lot of range. - Yeah, no worries. - Anybody else? - I and I are, we're thinking alike. Are you guys ready for my three star? - Yeah. - Lock of the week? Give me the Iowa team total under 16 and a half. - I just-- - I'm good. - Iowa has, you know, like we saw them against Iowa State who is the best team that they have faced this year and they only scored 16 points. Like I, maybe I'm wrong here, but I don't think the offense is solved. I don't think that Hank Brown going 12 for 12 last week is a sign of things to come. Also, Iowa has been the underdog in 10 conference road games against ranked teams since 2014. So the college football playoff era. It's not just that they're only one in nine in those games. It's that they've averaged only 12 and a half points in those 10 games and they've only scored more than 17 or more in three of them. So yeah, Michigan's defense is fine. My biggest concern here is Bryce Underwood throwing a pick deep in his own territory, giving Utah short fields. But I mean, again, Iowa has had a great defense and great special teams in all those prior 10 games and they're still only scoring 12 and a half per game. So Iowa team total under 16 and a half. - This was what I was hoping when this game got bet over and steamed earlier in the week that Iowa would take some money. So we could grab a 17 and a half, but that was my lean. - That's probably a good one, Tom. - I understand and like, the pick makes sense for this, but I do want to just take maybe 30 seconds to just identify Kirk fairness is so kind not to score those points in someone else's house. You know, like some people don't come into your house and they'll just make an ass of themselves, but not Kirk. You know, he's a gentleman and I at least appreciate that. I'm not Iowa fan, but I at least appreciate the way he handles those situations as a big road dog. Also should note, it's another double header on CBS America's most watch network, the network of stars at the conclusion of Iowa Michigan might have a little little bridge programming and then we'll be taking you out to Pullman. Woo, Arizona with a tricky little visit to go play Washington State. That'll be the second game anyone got a lock on Arizona, Washington State. - I think it's Washington State or Pass. - Yeah. - But not enough to lock it up. - I think Kelly on the call his first time to Pullman Washington, never been before. - Ooh, did you get to talk with Beacon this week? - Yeah, let's go. - So we'll have Adam, Jordan, Rich and Coach Kelly out there on the call, it should be a lot of fun. So again, that'll be the second game of that CBS double header. You can watch both the games on CBS or stream them on Para Mount Plus. Let's turn our attention to Athens. Georgia, where among other things and potentially even some locks here, it's important that we remind you that cover three is proudly sponsored by Homefield, the industry leader in top notch vintage collegiate apparel made by and four true college football fans. Homefield makes the most premium apparel on earth. And you wanna talk about premium apparel, you wanna talk about longevity, this awesome Pittsburgh hoodie from Homefield, it's 10 years old and it still feels fantastic. I mean, it is just, it is lasted. Is that what you've got on right now, but? - Yeah, go a little Charlie Ward special here. - Yeah, I mean, this is just, it is gear that you add to your collection and it just doesn't ever go away. And it's because they don't wanna have those low effort designs. They don't wanna have the cheap quality. Our friends at Homefield, they research everything. And especially the research goes into the design too. From the fit and fabrics to the vintage logos, Homefield makes stand out gear that defines your game day. And Homefield just launched their Can't Miss Kick Off line this August to style your game day. But Can't Miss Kick Off isn't over yet. The Homefield team is going on tour around the country to college campuses on the Can't Miss Kick Off tour, presented by our friends at Madelo. And this week they are headed to Georgia. So be sure to head out and see our friends at Homefield. Look for the details on their socials, especially their new events page at Homefield IRL. If you can't stop by, you can shop the very best in game day apparel for your team now at Homefield. And please, please, please let them know. Cover three sent you. Take 20% off your first purchase with Code Cover Three at checkout. That's C-O-V-E-R-3. No spaces at checkout at homefieldapparel.com or on the Homefield app. Homefield, the official outfitter of Cover Three and your game day. All right, Oklahoma at Georgia. Homefield's gonna be in the house. Who's got a lock? - I mean, I got one yet. I got one. Is this over two touchdowns? - Let me see, what side are you looking for? - I am looking for Oklahoma. - I see 14 perfect. I'll take 14. - I see, no, I've got a 13 and a half. - No, I want Oklahoma though. - Oh, you want Oklahoma. - I want the full two touchdowns. - There you go, let me see. - 14 and a half for like minus not. - Yeah, too much juice. - All right, I'll take 14. I'll take the two touchdowns. I think people are ready to bury Oklahoma. I, as explosive as Georgia's offense has been, I think that comes back a little bit down to Earth a little bit considering the competition. I mean, Arkansas, they had defensive linemen doing drills in the second half to get their work in, as Kirby said, because they weren't even given enough work. I think Mathieu is that wild card that as long as he doesn't throw the pick six, or the pick which he did against Michigan, I think this game might be surprisingly close. If I can get two touchdowns, I'll take it. I think Oklahoma soon is not, I'm not ready to bury them just yet, especially their defense. - Do you have time to walk in or out? - Fight, fight, fight, fight. - I was really nervous the way you were asking about those prices because lack agreements between Danny and Chip are o and three on the season and three and eight going back to the start of 2025. This is going to be our final. first lock fight. But I did go six and three in those lock fights last year. And I can get 13 and a half. Yep. Yep. I'm going to take Georgia. And I don't think that I have to bury Oklahoma necessarily to be able to cover this spread. I don't think it's going to be a runaway. It could like in my realm of possible outcomes as I'm getting behind Georgia. And I'm laying two whole touchdowns at an SEC game against the team with the top 10 defense. I need to be confident that there's a world where they go win 30 to three. But I think there's a world where they go and they win this game. 30 to three. I think there's a world where they break this thing open and sit on it. I mean, and just like absolutely put Oklahoma in a stranglehold. I don't so I don't think it'll be all at the beginning. But I do think at the end of 60 minutes, at the end of four quarters, we just we total this thing up. And I think that the dogs can win this thing by two touchdowns. So I'll lay it. Yeah. I lean under. I just like my tier is so bad. And like it is his ability to throw bad picks, I think, is really there. You know what? Since you said that, give me the under as well. Just make it a two for one special because I do think this is going to be a lower scoring game, which is why I like Oklahoma and kind of an uglier game. I'll take the under as well. See if I could find you a 45 real quick. Yeah. There you go. Yep. Tom, do you got any any thoughts here? No, I was just going to ask Danny, like how he walks around with those giant balls taking Oklahoma plus 14 in this game based on what you've seen from Oklahoma. It is more about and I like Georgia. I happen to win the SEC, but that's a big number versus a program like Oklahoma. And I think material can. I mean, there are throws there that are there. He's just missing them. And I also think he's a wild card with his legs. If he does get pressured, I almost like hope he gets flush from the pockets. I think that's where he's better. Is he aware that they're there? I think you see my balls or dumb material. Yeah. I mean, I think. So I saw Danny stepping out of the shower one time, man. Oh my god. Like my without the Suci, I think that's a major problem for Oklahoma. Like the kid they took from Arkansas, you can't play. So you really don't have a backup tackle. You can put in there who can play at a decent level with the Suci out and then still not have a problem on the other side. I think if this stays under, it's because these George offensive lineman, like a lot of their best ones are like literally teenagers. Yeah. And so you got to think Vendables can confuse them a little bit, you know, it possibly. Yep. All right. And let's see. Why don't we, we got, we got a lot of lot of locks on the board. So coming up on the other side, we review what we've got so far and open it up to all of week four Saturday and more next back here on the cover three podcast. Let's take a look at the locks that we got on the board so far, but is on Texas Tennessee over 55 and a half and the Ole Miss Florida first half under 30 and a half. I've got Liberty Coastal under 50 and half. That's on Thursday, Indiana fourth quarter minus three and a half Friday, Tennessee plus four and a half Florida first half team total over 14 and a half Oregon minus three Georgia minus 13 and a half. Danny's got Tennessee first quarter plus one and a half Florida minus three Oregon USC over 61 and a half LSU minus eight and a half Iowa Michigan under 39 Oklahoma plus 14 and the Oklahoma Georgia under 45 times locking up Ole Miss Florida over 58 and a half Texas A&M LSU under 52 Oregon USC over 61 and a half and Iowa team total under 16 and a half. All right, bud two locks on the board now want to hear some more. Where would you like to go? Yeah, let's let's go. We're going to go back to the leak washing well. We're going to take Maryland over 27 and a half points. I think he's really good QB. UCLA's defense is like not awful, but certainly not good. Go ahead. Go ahead. Give me the Terps to score 28 plus cross country. Yeah, cross country trip for the broons after being in one of the late Saturday games and a defense that they'd give up. They'd give up some yards and points to the boiler makers. So if you've got Malik Washington higher rated than Ryan Brown, you might think that Terps, you're going to be able to score some points. Do you, bud? I imagine. Yeah, I would like this pick to be a winner. How's that more than anything? You know, like there, there are a number plays and then sometimes I don't know about you boys, but I'm a man of principle and sometimes even when my numbers tell me that the line is accurate, I just, I can't. And Nebraska's going on the road this week to play Michigan State and it's favored by five and a half points. And I don't know if you guys are aware of this, but since he came to Nebraska in 2023, Matt rule is four and 10 on the road with the corn huskers. He's 67 and one against the spread in those games, but he's been the underdog in 10 of them. As a favorite, he's not only two and two straight up, but he's one and three against the spread and the only time he covered came in 2024 against that Purdue team that finished one and 11 went 0 and 9 in the big 10 and lost its big 10 games by 29 points per game. It's legitimately one of the worst power four teams we have seen in the in the modern era. That's the only time that Nebraska's been able to go on the road as a favorite and cover. Maybe Michigan State proves to be as bad as that Purdue team was. I doubt it. Give me Michigan State plus five and a half. When I was looking at Michigan State and trying to really put the screws to this before the season, I thought the higher of Pat Fitzgerald needs to win you one big 10 game that you might not need to win. So if you're going to look for one spot on this schedule where it's just, I don't know, man, this guy is going to figure out a way to get him through. Short less than a touchdown dog playing at home against Nebraska on the road. This might be your spot. So I got a six out there. Yeah. Oh, let's go. Now I can't lose. That's right. It's the, I got the best number around. I'm going to make this my 10 star lock. Can I do that? There's I need to need to after last week. Honestly, like there's plus five and a half plus one 15. Like that. That's nice too. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, that's exact. Yeah. That's a better bet. But for this. Yeah. Yeah. We'll take what we can get. All right. But why don't you keep it rolling? All right. Guys, let's go. Let's go Iowa State, Utah under 48 and a half. You know, Utah leaving home, you know, that passing offense has been okay. Pretty suspect competition so far. I think Iowa State's defense is kind of salty, not sure. I really trust that Iowa State offense fully. Yeah. I think you could see some hiccups from Utah's offense. So, you know, first time conference row game here, you know, trust Jimmy Rogers will play defensive style. We really haven't seen how the new Utah coach is a defensive guy is going to play in what is a tighter game projected. You know, Iowa State here is a dog of like what? Seven and a half eight, which is, thanks for surprising to some people. I was really hoping to get them, you know, plus 11 plus 10, but it did not happen. So I'm going to give them the under 48 and a half there. I also have a play in this game and I could tell you that Iowa State's actually an eight and a half point dog because I am taking Iowa State plus eight and a half. I think I kind of underestimated this team early in the year. I was impressed. Yeah. I was, I've been impressed overall by what I have seen from their defense. You cause on the road. I don't think that this is going to be a very fun game for you. It's I expect that they'll win. But I don't think that's a given. And if I'm getting a little bit more than a touchdown here, including, you know, with, with a two point conversion, give it to me. Jimmy, rocker, Jimmy Rogers might be a pretty good football coach. Yeah. Like him and Dickert are kind of like another person watching state ties, but like was you might have made like back to back really a higher. So those two. Five big 12 conference games this week. All very fun and interesting. I don't I like y'all's angles there. I don't deny you're not on any of those, right? Yeah. Like you are. You've got a big ball. I have a three star lock and one of them. Oh, let's go. Yeah. Let's stay in here because I think this is one of the most, this is one of those fascinating. The league race will take shape because of what we can learn from some of these teams. I know that we don't have necessarily that that Texas text pointing at Sam Houston. So, you know, that's one thing. But if we're looking at Utah as a team that's going to contend up there at the top, we got to learn how they can handle their business on the road in Ames, you know, that Oklahoma State West Virginia game is super interesting. Everybody's excited about Kansas State. Well, can they can they continue to keep back in this thing? Oh, lots of. Yeah. You haven't mentioned the game that I'm going to go to. Have you guys watched Chad powers? Yeah. Are you saying that Max Johnson is Chad powers? No. No. I'm saying when I watch Chad powers, all the guys that are playing football that are the actors, I think they just use Colorado football players because they're a little like go watch them play. Like, when you see them, they have the big helmets and they look small and they go, my goodness. Do we see what happened to Colorado? A couple players dismissed from the team after a beat down at Northwestern. Now they have to go to Waco to take on Baylor who is this is a game they absolutely have to win. DJ Lagway expected to be back for Baylor. All lay, I didn't get nine and a half too. I believe, I didn't get nine and a half. - Yeah, there's nine and a half there. - Lay them all day long. - I am worried about where Colorado is as a program. You're wondering what's going on behind the scenes. They're making fun of Northwestern stadium walking out of there with the beat down. And I do think this is a absolute must win for Baylor. So all I am there. I think they're the better team to top the bottom. I think they get it done. - That's your three star? - That's my three star. - Locke agreement. - Oh, he's three! (audience cheering) - Bad vibes. - Come on, we're gonna build on that record. Come on. - Yeah, bad vibes coming out of Boulder right now. They are two and one on the season, but even if we go back to that, like the win against Georgia Tech, it wasn't exactly an impressive win. Like I think they completed one pass in the entire game. It just happened to be a very big pass, but you look at them. The Go-Go offense has been much more of a no-no offense because in their two games against powerful opponents, they're averaging 0.95 points per possession. Like it's a bad offense. It is not effective. Defensively, they've been pretty okay. But as you mentioned, like DJ Lagway, he's listed as probable on the injury report last night. He's expected to be back in this game. I think Baylor at home, I like them here against Colorado. I just, you kind of wonder like, given how things went last week, given how there's players being kicked off the team, given how Deans talking about having to like, snuff out some problems that he did. It snuff out last year. You kind of wonder where the mentality of that Locke room is right now. And if they go on the road here and they get behind early, like this could also be an alt-line play for some people if you're looking for some plus juice. Let's see that. - Yo. Okay. - And also I am techs. So I know about my Baylor bears. - That's true. - That's right. Very, very clearly. Are you Tacovas techs? - I am Tacovas techs, yes. - There you go. All right, Tom. How many got left? - I have four left. - Okay. - Should I give one more? - No, I'll just go ahead and drop this one. It, I gotta get my pop gun back, you know? You're a lot of consideration about a long trip from Amherst out to Sacramento. And everybody says defense travels. But I think UMass is offensive advantage against the Hornets is gonna be what travels the most. Let's go UMass team total over 26 and a half. - Yeah, I like that one too. - It's a good one. - Not gonna go with a full, a massive run up here. But if you do go back and look at Sacramento State so far, I do think there is a vulnerability to moving the ball through the air that is gonna be something that Watson can exploit and the Minutemen can exploit. The spread for those of you interested if you just wanted to lay it with the Minutemen against Sacramento State, we are under a touchdown. You know, you're in that four and a half, five and a half, kind of, kind of goes on range. But for me, the one piece of this that I'm gonna trust the most is gonna be UMass's offense being able to move the ball and score points. Did you know that UMass, actually Tom might know. UMass is excellent at finishing drives. Like that's one of those signal noise things that I know that you always latch onto when they get the scoring opportunities, when they get the red zone opportunities, UMass has done a good job of punching it in. So let's go. We need 60 Minutemen and we need 27 points. - I might have more on this game later. Oh no, oh no. - Text doesn't want to tip his hand. - Text, never trust text at a poker table. Never tip his hand. All right, Danny, what you got? - Take me to State College, the Knitney Lions. First test of the season after a preseason warm up, they've had three of them. They have looked really good. Rocco backed close to perfect. 70% completions, nine touchdowns or zero interceptions. He has been clean, but he has not faced a Big 10 defense yet. I do think Wisconsin is gonna give their best effort as well. Colton Joseph's been good, but I think he could struggle on the road here. Give me under 44 and a half in this one. Another classic Big 10 Tussle, where the defense is reign supreme. - I can get you 45. - Great, great, great angle there. Tom, when we were, I guess on Tuesday in big game breakdown, did were you hinting at maybe back in the badgers here? - No. - Okay, I, the Kobe Howard absence, somebody who's been a big part of the Penn State passing a game, he's gonna be missing what, a couple weeks. Isn't that what we've got? - Four to six looks like. - Yeah, that's a, that is enough. Like I don't, I don't assign a point spread to every single player, like a lot of people do, but I do think that's enough to have me backing off just blindly laying double digits with Penn State's offense going up against the Luke Fickle coach, Wisconsin team. So I think Penn State wins the game. I think they handled their business. I like that under though. If it's a low scoring game, it's hard to cover big spreads. - I like something even more. I like Penn State team total under 28 and a half. - Ooh, like that up. - Yeah. - Let's go. Similar thinking, just lower scoring game, passing attack, loose, it's best player. - Penn State has not played a single decent defense so far this year, like Buffalo is terrible. Marshall's not particularly good on defense. Temple, I think better offense than defense as you saw last week, just, they've had like three scrimmages. - All right, you know, we've been waiting in line. Let's see, let me make sure, let me check with the balancer. Is the balancer ready? Let's see if they'll let us in. - Cover. - Are you going up? (upbeat music) - Back in club, kids, let's go. McKenzie Brooks, how are we doing? - I found myself a spinny chair. And now it's over for everybody else. - Uh-oh. - Listen, I got booted last week. I think you guys had a surprise guest. So I lost one pick and that's the treatment I get. And you know what, that's fine. - He won 13 units. - He won 13 units. - Responsibility. - Wow. - Yeah. - Yeah. - Yeah. - I was giving it up. - Hand off. - He donated a large sum of money to charity for the children's hospital and delivered 13 units of winning picks. So, I mean. - So now I look like an asshole. - Okay. (laughing) - Yeah, let's take it all back. It's fine. - What we got? - Two picks, two dogs covered the spread. Have you guys talked Hawaii Wyoming yet? - No. - No, if not. - Okay. Game of the week. Also, windy game in Wyoming. You got the island boys headed to Wyoming. Never goes well for the Wyoming four and one. The last five at home. Home road splits, especially for a team like Hawaii are just going to be drastic. And it's a past first offense. This is gonna be ugly to try to cover a spread like that on the road in tough conditions. I just noticed Tom's wearing a cowboy hat. Like right there. - Oh, I'm tax. Tom's not here this week. - Oh, okay. Well, maybe you're in on taking Wyoming as well then. You could keep the cowboy hat on for them. Just the plus three and a half. You get the three and a half on Fandall. I think that's huge for the team. Three would be different, but a home dog there. Then we're going on. - Wait, hold on. We just, I mean. - It truly is the setting and the call sign. If you're gonna invoke it. - It's gonna be windy in Wyoming. - Okay, winds in Laramie, driving our college football decisions have been around for a long time. So you're spot on. You're singing off the same hymnol as us. - All right, perfect. That makes me feel better. The second one is Iowa catching five and a half headed to Michigan. And I'm not a Michigan hater. I've taken Michigan. I backed them up after they're all full basically lost to Western Michigan. It's just Iowa will not let you run six yards a clip. That's the game plan. You know what I mean? They're allowing 2.2 yards per carry this year, which is absurdly insustainable, but it was 3.8 last year. So we know that they could stop the run. And then we're just relying on Bryce to pass. And we all, you know, we know how that one's gonna go. So to cover five and a half at home just feels like a lot. So I like the plus five and a half. It kind of gives Steelers and a fell football vibes where they're just gonna make it ugly. And that makes it hard to cover big spreads. So two dogs just covered. - Let's go. - Ken, how were you in 2004? - Three. - You don't remember this. You know that song by 2 chains and I-20 fighting in the club? Give me the whole night rainbow warrior. So let's go. Mine's three. - Oh! - Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, oh, fight, fight, fight. I was on Wyoming earlier this year. And I just, I think I was just very wrong about that team. And I think Hawaii can do enough. Hawaii's defense is like kind of okay. You know, handled like a pretty game. New Mexico state offense. I, I think only the three there, I'll go ahead and do it. - Yeah, it's just like when you lose to you in L.F. who then loses North Texas. It's like, oh, I don't think anybody's that good. I like the three. If you get a three, I get it. We can thread the needle here, bud. - Yeah, we can, we can side this thing. - Let's go. - I was also only three years old in 2004. I just want to put that on the record. Come on, I want you to know that every single time, a giant scheme, every single time the giant scheme has come up and James Winston, I referred to your tweet, you're like, "Oh, the world cup course, mother." That's right. I've seen this stuff, but like, like, James, you were prepping all off season, right? Because now you're in 15k. Yeah. He's like every bear, but the giant's facility, I actually don't even think he's in New York. I thought we were going to lose, I thought we were going to lose my co-worker, Ross back. Jackson Dart went down. James looked like that. I said, "Oh, my God, we're going to lose Ross." He's going back to the giants. I don't know what that looks like contractually, so I'll let you know in a few weeks. Don't report on it. Yeah. Hands off. I'm just, you are doing an excellent job, by the way. Tell the people how to find your own Sundays, getting every part of the set. The easiest ways on the NFL and CBS YouTube, we're live streaming. I'm in the chat all the time, so if you have questions for those guys, they're super awesome, super fun to work with. And then on HQ, Paramount Plus, all the good things. Yep. You got a fun group. They'll get your day set for the NFL Sunday. Thank you, kids. We appreciate it. We'll check back in at the club. All right. Coming up on the other side, we finish out our week for locks. Plus, Moneyline sprinkles and more. Next. 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Back here on the Cover 3 podcast, I didn't want to just wander into this one, you know, especially, you know, we've already done enough with Danny and the, you know, the gomption. But that would be a titty boy era for two chains, right? Like 2004 is before he did the rebrand. Like, like, truthfully, titty boy changing his name as a rapper from titty boy to two chains is one of the greatest rebrands in the history of American culture. I just, I needed to check. I was like 2004. Yeah, I think that's it before, you know, it's, but it's a banger of a song. I was, I was very glad that you were able to, uh, to, to give a call out to that. I can't really quote some of the lyrics. No, no, no, no, that's not do that. Yeah. Yeah. It works. Yeah. Perfect. Yeah. This is exactly it. All right. We've got. All right. Later and not like have an HR meeting. So I wasn't going to ask kids about the, the former name of two chains. Right. Exactly. Yeah. Um, does anybody want to, uh, take a gander at the game, the big old drum? Does anybody want to go see Notre Dame, the big old drum, the little rivalry game, uh, I know that there are times where you would be looking for that, that rivalry under because things are going to be so tight, but I don't know, man, I've watched Purdue play football this year. I kind of think this one's going to be, uh, this one's going to be really like a lot of free range chicken. Right. Got a lot of like, a lot of good open grass in this game. I'm going to go with a little Notre Dame Purdue over 57 and a half. You can see it. Yeah. I, yeah. I think overs could be a very lucrative in Purdue games this year because I think their offense is a little underappreciated what they've done. My only concern for this game is Notre Dame does have an elite defense. And I do feel like they are one of the teams that will probably be able to stop that Purdue offense. But if the touchdowns are scored late or scored early, it doesn't matter when they're scored. We just, we just got to, we got to get that big drum, we got, we got to get that big drum and what, probably about 14 points Notre Dame should be able to do the rest. I was looking at Notre Dame team total as well for this one, but I think that Purdue's offense to your point is underappreciated, underrated, and they could should be able to do enough to be able to help this total get there to get there as well. All right. I think I've got one, how many, yeah, I've got one left. I got a couple left. I've got. Yeah, I've got more than that. Okay. I go. All right. Two chains. Oh, go ahead, Tex. No, you go, go, go, go. All right. Two chains. Two team totals. Give me Washington under 28 and a half. Maybe they get right this week, but I don't think so. And give me Bama first half team total over 16 and a half. They've started slow this year. I think that changes this week. I think Keylon comes out firing and then they got 20 plus on the board in the first half against South Carolina. I, I really like the Alabama play because that's a classic beginning in the week. I do like my first draft, just run through the whole board, just write down anything that comes to mind like instant reaction on a Sunday night or a Monday. And I thought, Oh, Alabama slow starts South Carolina. They're going to come out and blood. The more I dug into this and the more you started hearing and the more you started sensing, I think that the Alabama slow start is maybe more of a motivation for a correction than it is an opportunity for South Carolina to go in there and and and and roar back after kind of collapsing a little bit against Mississippi State. I think you also have like some unknowns, right? Like they got Florida State off of by Florida State did some kind of funky blitz stuff that, you know, Keylon solved about 20 minutes later, right? And continue to solve it for the whole game. You had not seen Kentucky play a real opponent like at all. So Kentucky, I'm sure broke out some stuff in that first half. They had not seen obviously at, you know, maybe South Carolina has a, as a big old thing saved up for them. It's possible. But, you know, it's not a new staff. Carolina's not off of by week. So I think you have a better feel for what Clayton White at South Carolina is going to run. And I don't think it's going to be run well. And I don't mind Clayton White. I don't think that defense is a lot of talent. Yeah. How do you feel about the Alabama defense against Lenoris? I think that's kind of more of the wild card, right? Right. I think Bama Alts here would make some sense. Like if you get another bad Lenoris game and Bama throws up 45, which I think they can do, you know, then right. But like obviously, you know, it's, it's tough. All right, Tex. Mm hmm. Fire that six shooter. Well, partner, I got four left in the chamber here. Uh, I'm going to take, I'm going to start going to an SEC matchup. I'm, I'm going to bat Camario Taylor. Give me Mississippi State minus six in the game against Mizzou. It's just, I'm going to ride these bulldogs until they, you know, I'm going to buck this Bronco till it throws me off, boys, uh, and then go to the ACC Virginia Tech and Boston College, give me the under 47 and a half. I, I do not see this being an overly exciting game. I do not see BC being able to put many points on the board. So even if Virginia Tech stunts a little bit, I still think we're going to get under here. Another under, uh, Troy Utah State under 48. Just a numbers play. I think that told us a little too high. And then finally, how many strokes is Tray, given Ryan Silverfield here to, oh, seven and a half, seven eight strokes, give me, you can't give Tray Lam strokes. All right. This is, give me Tulsa plus seven and a half, even with the backup, even with the backup. Yeah. Yeah. I don't care. Give me plus seven and a half arc. Do you know how many times Tray Lam is carried a team, you know? I mean, even when his partner's double dot and then throwing it into the, uh, into the creek on the left side of the fairway, Tray Lam comes up and he pulls it out. Let's go. I mean, like, there is, there are no good vibes coming out of Arkansas right now. Everything is bad. So I'm just going to hope those vibes play through that like, it's Tulsa coming to town. And we saw last week how empty that stadium was for Georgia. How many people do we think are showing up for Tulsa? Yeah. Probably not many. But Tom, give me, give me the 17 and a half and a half band, that, that, that number got hit fast. Let's, let's give people something a little more fair there. All right. Cool. Yeah. I mean, we're asking for three touchdowns. If we think we're going to get three touchdowns. Right. Yeah. We get three, get three touchdowns. Um, good. And look at that. Hey. Thank you looking out for the tailgate. Yeah. That's awesome. Um, the official quote, by the way, we got a double body blow out here in San Antonio, UTSA coming out of the Texas game and Colorado State coming out of the BYU game. The Colorado in reports that Jim Mora has said that Hoss Haney will be quote, touch and go after leaving the BYU game with the hamstring injury. Officially, a game time decision, um, the options behind Haney, if he can't start or if he gets that injury re aggravated, I think lead into a noticeable downgrade of what the Rams are going to be able to do offensively. I think he's a really good player, like probably one of the probably one of the better quarterbacks in that conference in the pack 12, um, UTSA at home is also a monster. Uh, we've talked about that a lot. I'll. - That's like UTSA, I know it's a big number. I'll lay 13 and a half with the road runners. Meet me, they get off the mat after that Texas game, and I think they've got a great opportunity to get out there and get running. - That sucks with the handy injury, man, 'cause like if he's in, that's a great watch, because that'd be a really exciting game. - But my expectation is that if he go, I mean, we're talking a hamstring, touch and go. I mean, even if he's out there and limited, he can't be the same player for that offense, that he can't be. - Yeah. - So yeah, give me the road runners at home, and I think that closes me out 'til sprinkles. - I've got one, a sick. - All right. (laughs) - All right. - Oh wait, oh, then if it is sick, we gotta. - It's time for sicko mode, let's go. - One, two, three, four. (laughs) - A little bit lower on some of the teams in the bottom of the sun belt. If things go wrong, they could be like you mess you up. That's kind of like sicko mode, over sicko mode. All right, here we go. So, we're gonna go to Dallas, and you got SMU coming off a big time emotional loss, right, to Louisville, and you got a Missouri State team coming in there. That's not great. But do you know who coaches Missouri State? - KC Woods. - KC Woods. - Who was at what school, but? He was at SMU for four years, right? I don't think there's any bad blood there, right? - No, I know for a fact, Rhett was very happy for him in July at ACC Football Kickoff. You know, that was one of the topics of conversation. - Sometimes we're like, hey, these are kind of like get right games where you got an offensive coach who needs to put up a big number. SMU has already put up big numbers this year, right? This is that kind of weird non-con game in between a con schedule. I'm gonna go ahead and take those 34 and a half points with Missouri State. - Man, the sweat. - Yeah. - Maybe cooked by the half, we'll see. - No, that's the thing is like, you're gonna be sitting there, staring down 35 to three at the half time. Like, come on, KC, just give me a touch down. Figure it out. - A triple trip in the tailgate says, break out the mask, I don't know, I don't have any, I need, maybe I need to add that to the collection first. If you're gonna get that-- - If you're in that bar. - That was a credible read, by the way. Oh my gosh. - But I don't know if a mad lib could have done better to like-- - Amazing. - Is he a what now? Yeah, but listen, oh that is like from the locks intro. Y'all were watching all the good games. I was live betting the hell at a Kentucky ULM. Like, you're watching all the good games and I was grinded on Missouri State needing that back door cover. This is how it goes. All right, so Tom, you're good? - Good. - Danny? - Good. - Bud? - Good. - All right, to review week four locks. Bud is on. Texas Tennessee, over 55 and a half. Ole Miss, Florida, first half, under 30 and a half. Maryland, team total, over 27 and a half. Utah, Iowa State, under 48 and a half. Penn State, team total, under 28 and a half. Hawaii, minus three. Washington, team total, under 28 and a half. Alabama, first half, team total, over 17 and a half. And Missouri, plus 34 and a half. I've got Liberty Coastal, under 50 and a half. Indiana, fourth quarter, minus three and a half. Tennessee, plus four and a half. Florida, first half, team total, over 14 and a half. Oregon, minus three. Georgia, minus 13 and a half. UMass, team total, over 26 and a half. Notre Dame, Purdue, over 57 and a half. UTSA, minus 13 and a half. Danny's got. Tennessee, first quarter, plus one and a half. Florida, minus three. Oregon, USC, over 61 and a half. LSU, minus eight and a half. Iowa, Michigan, under 39. Oklahoma, plus 14. Baylor, minus nine and a half. The Oklahoma, Georgia, under 45. And Wisconsin, Purdue, under 45. And, excuse me, Tex, for Nellie, he's going to take. Oh, Miss Florida, over 58 and a half. Texas A&M, LSU, under 52. Iowa, team total, under 16 and a half. Michigan, state, plus six. Iowa, state, plus eight and a half. Mississippi, state, minus six. Virginia Tech, Boston College, under 47 and a half. Troy, Utah, state, under 48. And Tulsa, plus seven and a half. And now, it's time for money line sprinkles. All right, last week in the Sprinkland, yeah, bud. Bud bringing home the winner with Hockey, plus 700. Then, nothing for Chip looks like Danny coming home with that Ole Miss, plus 118. Nothing for Tom. Overall, we got to see Chip and Bud hovering right under breaking even 0.4, minus 0.8 units, Danny and Tom. But I'll let you get first dibs on this one, since you did win that last week. These are before we start. Before we start, can I bring something up? Because it's going to go like, think with what you're about to mention here. You'll notice, and I wrote about this in the six back this week, how terrible all our records are on these sprinkles, so far this season, right? Like, we've had some big hits. But overall, we've got terrible records. It's not our fault, boys. So far this season, in games between FBS teams, underdogs have won only 16% of the time. Last year, it was at 26.5, and just for further clarification, going back to 2014, which is as far back as my numbers go, underdogs in general have won 26% of the time. This is the lowest by far of any season in that time so far. And to even go a little further, it's not just because of a bunch of big time underdogs. If you shrink the spread of games to seven and a half or a touchdown, the win percentage is 33.9%. The average over the last decade is 39.3. For whatever reason, underdogs have not been winning games outright this season. Maybe it's an outlier year, or maybe these sprinkles are about to get hotter and hell, boys. I mean, they could. I feel like the results don't say it. The week before last, I was like, I felt great about it. We got possession of the chance to go win these outright, I think in three of those four, and none came home. Last week, tempo blow in a 14-point lead with a minute left was not really the best outcome for the sprinkles. Let's get this stuff turned around here, guys. Give me app plus 488 at NC State. - Oh, I mean, if you think that team might quit, maybe it starts to quit. - Yeah, don't take app plus the points plus the two touchdowns. - All in the field, yeah, just like if it's within a touchdown, then app's gonna have the app's gonna be in a position to keep riding and try to win the game. - Give me ULM plus 450. If it used, look decent so far this year, coming off a big rivalry win over FIU. Give me UTEP plus 376. I like Oregon State a lot. I like the Oregon State 60 to one to win the conference, 900 down to like 10. But at the same time, UTEP's not that bad. And that's a weird road trip up there. And give me Minnesota plus 316. Been out on this Washington team all year, and maybe the goal for us to get something here. Look, it's turned about the offensive line injuries for Minnesota, but they can get that fixed. I think they're alive to win this game. But we've been friends for a long time. And I've always thought that you are better at identifying prices and money making opportunities. You've just got a better eye and a better brain for that because I had Minnesota plus 310. So clearly your 316 is gonna be there. - 316. - Yeah, like absolutely. I mean, what in the, and you had it with the Washington team total under? I mean, what in the world about Washington that they've put on the field is anywhere close to their preseason rating or expectations? - Yeah. - And this is a, that's a spot where I know that the govors were not good away from home last season, but I think that game will be competitive late into the evening. And I'm looking to Minnesota to be able to road that boat all through the Puget Sound. I'll also take Western Michigan plus 240 against Boise State, you're playing at home. I would turn your attention. Richard Johnson has an excellent story from Kalamazoo on sort of the community and the confidence and the way that I don't like to talk about moral victories a lot, but I think it's impossible not for the Western Michigan fan base, not just 'cause of the game against Michigan, but what happened last season? You know, what they're seeing with that program under Lance Taylor. I say with that big home game Boise State and Town, they're able to get it done. And then finally, I'll just throw a little Tennessee plus 167. Is that sound right? - Let's see falls, let me see here. Yeah, 170. Yeah, I'll take a little Tennessee plus 170 as my three sprinkles for this week. Danny? - Dang it. I don't like when I have the same as a lot of people. I kind of go off the board, but I am also on Western Michigan. I am also on Tennessee. Couple of home dogs. I hope you can see some surprises there that G6 matchup is huge. Do you guys think this would probably be one versus two like if they did a G6 ranking? - Mm-hmm. - Yeah. - Mm-hmm. - May be. - Jamie probably can add a certain light, heavy album. Yeah, but it would be like a top five matchup. - Great, should be a fun game. - Tulsa. - Yeah. - Like Tulsa's got the win over a goal and taking the Oregon. - Okay, maybe. All right, so I like those. I'm gonna take Maryland plus 105. You see if I can get an easy one, jog up a win up there with UCLA, making that cross country, yeah. And then I'm gonna take, you mentioned it before, Matt Rules record on the road isn't great. Give me sparty to knock off Nebraska. - 189. - Let's go. - I think we're gonna win them all. God, lead to X. Come on, let's just, let's keep that. - I put a money line around Robin weekend. - Yeah, right, Tex. - Yeah. I am also on Maryland plus 108. I am on Michigan State plus 189. And then I mentioned it earlier. I would have more for you. Give me Sacramento State plus 160. Listen, I love UMass story so far. I love that they beat Rutgers, but they've played Stonehill and Stony Brook in two games since. - Oh, they didn't let their foot off the gas. They were firing the muskets, baby. - Yeah, no, you've played two FCS opponents. Now you're asking them to go on the road for a cross country road trip and you're making them favorites. I know Sacramento State hasn't exactly been super impressive, but I think we're asking a lot of the minute men here. So give me Sac State. I think there's opportunity there. Give me Ole Miss plus 150. What if they aren't let down? What if Trinidad Chambles is just really good and Trinidad leads them to a win against a Florida team that is ranked? But it's a Florida team that, I mean, Auburn might not make a bowl for all we know. Maybe they haven't played a bowl team yet. Maybe this is the best team they've seen by a lot. Maybe they lose. Give me Iowa State plus 292. I mentioned it. The team's better than I thought they were. This is Utah's first road trip. Ames is never an easy place to play. It's gonna be packed. Maybe the Cyclones pulled that one out. Give me Tulsa plus 230. I'm just like Quitwatch on Arkansas. Great job, right? Your first month on the job. And maybe your team looks like it just doesn't give a damn anymore, not good. And then finally, give me Stanford plus 160 at home. I just-- - That'd be Georgia Tech going out to the farm. - Yeah, again, yeah, Georgia Tech Cross Country Road Trip as a favorite, the same Georgia Tech team that's lost to Colorado and just has not looked very impressive. I think we're overestimating the bees a little bit. - Jet lag Saturday, Tom's getting-- - Listen, you guys aren't ready. Yeah, you guys aren't ready to handle this kind of travel. Once again, got what, yes, but-- - I might have a little more. - It's got a nice-- - I haven't called it yet, you got Tom. - Give me Charlotte plus 360. - Oh, God! - I just-- - I do not think I'll pay, is that real, I know, man. But like, I mean, these bad teams get together. I just don't think that's, you know, stuff happens. - Mean media and deviation. - Yeah. - Is that-- I can't remember if that's the math term. - So those are the words. All right. (laughing) - Charlotte, all right, so Bud is locking up at state. ULM, UTIP, Minnesota, and Charlotte. Got Minnesota, Western Michigan, and Tennessee. Danny's taking Western Michigan, Tennessee, Maryland, and Michigan state. And Tom's sprinkling like salt bay, just Maryland. Michigan state, Ole Miss, Iowa state, Tulsa, and Stanford. This is it. This is, I just, I feel it. Is it, did you guys love the board this week? I love it. - I love it. - Love it, can't wait it. Can't wait to win 'em all. All the sprinkles, all the locks. Come join us as we recap it all Saturday night around 11.30 p.m. Eastern time. Maybe a shade early. We'll see how the late night 7.30 action goes. This is going to be one where we've got a couple games that are all, you know, I think that all like, you know, don't want to start before the game is over. So we'll see, we'll be negotiating with you in the tailgate letting you know. So come hang out, youtube.com/cover3. Let's smash that bell for the notification. We've almost hit our next subscriber goal as well. So we appreciate everybody. If like, even if you were part of the audio audience and you have been awesome in the tailgate and really helping support the show here in the 2026 season, we would just ask this, like, please go over to youtube.com/cover3 and just subscribe. You know, just hit that subscribe. Continue to listen to us. However, we meet you within your routine, within your day on the audio side. We are going to keep giving you these locks for free 99, the recaps, the reactions and so much more. Head on over, subscribe youtube.com/cover3. - Any other devices in your home as well, right? Like, maybe your husband's iPad or your wife, what would, like, hey, everyone counts. - Listen, they all count, tailgate is a big tent. Welcome for everybody, and you can follow him on Twitter. At the top, you can follow him. At Danny, you can follow him up, you can follow me, @GF_Patterson, gentlemen. 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