Week 4 Fantasy Football Trade Strategy: WRs & TEs to Buy, Sell and Hold (Ep. 2229)
44m 5s
The podcast offers a detailed fantasy football trade analysis focused on wide receivers, tight ends, and rookies. Teams in early-season trouble (0–3) are urged to act decisively to secure playoff eligibility, emphasizing short-term gains over long-term planning. Tyler Ward is identified as a high-potential buy due to elite target share, injury absences, and a prime Sunday night matchup. Parker Washington is highlighted as a rising star with strong ceiling potential, despite modest early results, suggesting value beyond current projections. Buka is recommended for sale due to poor performance in a failing Buccaneers offense, while Jordan Addison is seen as a tradeable asset after a breakout game. Travis Kelsey is targeted for removal due to unsustainable production and rising competition from Rashi Rice. Kyle Pits is dismissed as a poor value due to inconsistent usage with new quarterbacks. Among rookies, Denzel Boston is viewed as the best buy due to superior early performance, while Carnell Tate and Casey Converse are held as low-risk options. The analysis underscores the importance of injury context, quarterback stability, and matchup value in trade decisions, with a clear emphasis on buying high-upside, low-usage players when opportunities arise.
This is an "I Heart" podcast, Guaranteed Human. On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon. People like Jane Fonda, George Michael, Little Richard. And we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. We're here for the messy, the brilliant, the human version of our heroes. I'm Emmanuel Jochi. I'm Kai Wright. And this is Big Lives. Listen to Big Lives on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hello, everybody. Welcome into the fantasy-prose football podcast. I'm Ryan Wormley, joined by Andrew Erickson. This is part two of our trade show for week four. We already did running backs and quarterbacks in part one to be sure to check that out. YouTube Spotify, wherever you listen to your podcast. This will be "Wired Receivers" and tightheads. Before we jump in, though, Erickson, I want to take a moment and have you give some overarching high-level, just general trade strategy advice, how you're approaching the trade market in week four. If you're only three right now, hope is not a strategy, right? It's time to make a move. So although you may like the depth on your roster, maybe you've been eviscerated by injuries either way, it doesn't matter how you got to only three, it's a matter of digging out of your hole in three. And I think that making trades right now is integral because you get nothing to lose, right? At this point, I am willing to be a little bit more aggressive in terms of going after some players that you could see or maybe more boomer bust. A lot of that ties back to guys that are coming off of injuries, right? Where how does the Pukka-Nakua manage your feel about Pukka right now? Doesn't absolutely nothing. Maybe you're only three and you have Pukka. Now, we obviously know that some players are attached to teams that have losing records versus players that have winning records. But I think right now if you are sitting at 0 and 3, it's just you got to be active on the trade treats this week, specifically going after big upside type of players or also looking just to find ways to stack wins. So if that's taking one of your stud players and breaking them down into multiple starting assets, you got to find ways to push the needle in your favor to try to stack up some wins because we all know at the end of the day with fantasy, it's you got to make the playoffs, right? You find a way to get into the postseason and then anybody can make some noise. So that's what I would echo this week for those looking to make trades. If you're only three, you can't just sit on the sidelines and watch other people make trades. You got to make some moves. Last year was a really great year for like the five or six seed in your playoffs, making the championship and winning. A lot of teams, like the ones and two Cs last year, it was, we have the data from the sink to leagues if fantasyprose.com and it was like remarkable how few of the best teams across the regular season one. And I say that to say, you just got to make the dance, right? So like do whatever you can to get into the playoffs and you know, you can't take the long term, you can't be looking at, oh, what's this guy's schedule look like in December because then I can kind of build the future. Like if you're one and two or especially oh and three, you can't go to oh and four. And you can't go one and three, you really got to be the goal. So yeah, like you have to take the win now approach and then figure out the legal change, defenses and matchups will change. Like with players will change between now and December, you got to take the short term view. So I'm with you on this one. If you want a chance to win the ultimate symbol of fantasy glory, the fantasy football championship belt courtesy of our good friends at Trophy smack the number one destination for epic fantasy football hardware, then this is your moment. This massive gold plated belt is built to make a statement. It's bold, it's heavy and it's guaranteed to turn heads in your league. Don't just win your championship, wear it to enter. All you need to do is subscribe to the fantasy pro's YouTube channel right now. Drop a comment below on any of our videos and that it will be announcing a winner right here on the channel. So make sure to turn on notifications so you don't miss your chance to claim this championship belt and flex on your entire league. All right, Erickson, let's start with the wide receivers. Who is your receiver to buy? Teterola Mcmillan, wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers. Now warm you did mention on our other running backs show that Bryce Young is going through some engine imaging on his ankle. So that's something that you just wanted to be aware of before you send out any Godfather deals for team act because quarterback is a little bit banged up. But that being said, what is the process usually say when it comes to buying receivers? Once the quarterback goes down, you go scoop him up. So not to say Bryce Young is going to miss any time. But I think that just what team act has done throughout the first three weeks of the season. I think that he's being undervalued versus the market. So he is top of the NFL in terms of total end zone targets without a touchdown yet this season. So every other player that has as many end zone targets as team act does so far this year has at least three touchdowns. So I think that he's a strong positive touchdown regression candidate. You factor in the fact that Jalen Coker is probably going to miss one or two weeks with his quad injury that he's dealing with and team act is facing the lines this week. This is the most smash spot for a player like him who's clear cut alpha. Number one wide receiver on his team, especially if Coker is going to miss some time. Even when Coker is available in the offense, they had both basically been splitting as the number one receiver in terms of just raw target volume coming their way. So he's coming off his worst game of the year against the Cleveland Browns, which was a tougher matchup just based on how they defend perimeter cornerbacks. Two catches for 17 yards on five targets. But like I said, a lot of two more end zone targets did not score. It's all wide receivers and end zone targets without a touchdown yet this season. So I think that he's just a screaming positive regression candidate across multiple facets and you get the lines this week. So that's why he's going to be my bio low. One thing I would say he does it the lines this week. There is a buy in week five for the Panthers. So if you are one of these teams who's like oh and three and like really needs to do well soon, like it's really really helpful for week four. He won't be on your team for week five. I'm not even saying that that means you shouldn't trade for him. I just wanted to throw it out. So people were aware if they are kind of in an early season hole. I mean, everybody will have a buy eventually. But from some perspective, it's nice to get out of the way early. But like I said, I just wanted to kind of throw that out there. I was really expecting a big year of touchdowns from McMillan. You know, he had seven last season. But it felt like, I mean, it took a while for him to get into the end zone in 2025 as a rookie. I was like, okay, kind of figured it out in the second half. Like scoring more touchdowns. And I was really expected like double digits this year. And like this, that's a big part of how he was used was like in the end zone. It just hasn't quite, you know, landed yet. It's because this guy named frigging Darren Waller gets gets gets all the touchdowns. Does it like, I know it was a tougher matchup. Does it make you nervous at all that like even with Coker going down, he only had two catches for 17 yards. Like he had been, it had been such a clear 1a and 1b situation. The 1b was gone. And yet the 1a had this worst game of the season. Does it make you nervous at all? No, not really. I think this is a blip on the radar. He's still running all the routes. They're still talking about how the entire passing game goes through Tetoroid McMillan. And we knew going in that the matchup against Cleveland on the road, which was the toughest spot that the Panthers had faced up to this point, was going to be tougher on the perimeter wide receivers. They are much weaker against the slot, which is why Jalen Coker, if he had not gotten injured, would have probably been more productive in that matchup last week. And also too, we talked about it right, Jalen, dealing with an injury, right? How did that, how did that influence how he was able to push the ball down the field to the perimeter, to the outside, the numbers where Team Act runs a lot of his routes. So if Coker is also not playing, I would expect you could see a scenario where Team Act is going more inside in the slot. So I just think that he's such a really good player. Second year guy, raining offensive, rookie of the year. And I just think that this spot here in week four is going to be a potential blow-up spot for him. On Sunday night football, the whole world is watching. Caroline doesn't play a lot of prime time games. I think this is a spot where it's a reminder of, yeah, who's the guy that won all of his rookie of the year last season? Tedaroa. I can't remember the last time, Carolina hosted a Sunday night football game. It took it a few years watching it. Yeah, you were like, how was this game? It's like, when I first looked at the matchup, I automatically assumed it was in Detroit, right? Because again, for a field, of course, for the NFL, shootout, but no, on the road, Bank of America stadium. So yeah, it should be fun. Why do you see we're 20, by the way, in rest of season rankings? Is that too high, too low or just right? I think that feels a little low for me. I would be curious to see Coker's probably right in a similar range, too. I know it's a little bit more fluid because he's dealing with his injury right now. So he actually might have fallen a little bit. But I had them at Wide Receiver 17. So I'm curious, where is him versus Malink neighbors? Neighbors is Wide Receiver 15. Okay. He is five spots higher than Tedaroa McMillan. Yeah. By the way, Jalen Coker is Wide Receiver 31 in rest of season. Okay. That might, yeah, injury related, possibly. But yeah, Tedaroa McMillan is Wide Receiver 20, so if you have them in the teens, that's the guy that's undervalued in your opinion. My Wide Receiver to buy is valued a lot more highly than this, but I still think it's worth going out and getting Parker Washington. And I don't know if this is technically a buy high. It is relative to where he was going in draft season. I don't think it's a buy high relative to what his value will be across the course of the rest of the season. And you look at his game log, 5 for 83 in a touchdown, 7 for 98, 3 for 40 in a touchdown.
his worst game. He did have a touchdown, though. Why did he over 28 this last week? He had been inside the top 16 the first two weeks. He has not topped 17 half-weeper points in the game yet this season. And the usage is just phenomenal. I mean, really, it could even be better, but like, it's been, it's been enough that we're excited about. It's what we kind of wanted to see him as the number one of this offense over the summer. He's had a couple of touchdowns. He had another awesome touchdown catch that got called back on penalty in the game against New England. He did still catch a touchdown on that drive. So like, it's not like he missed out on this whole other drives where it's touchdown. But just to say, like, he's making multiple great catches in the end zone for Trevor Lawrence. It's only going to have him throw him more often. And really, the reason I bring this up is I think that the industry were in Erickson. There was so much talk about Parker Washington this summer. We couldn't do a show without Washington getting mentioned, right? I went to the live, Scott Fishbowl draft, a bunch of people in the industry there. You couldn't walk around without hearing people talk about Parker Washington. He was just like such a big name this summer for fantasy analysts that I really want to try to step back and remind myself that the vast majority of people are not in these conversations every day and might not have had this high level of hype for Parker Washington. They might not be on fantasy Twitter 24/7. And on Sunday, seeing everybody taking their victory laps and celebrating that park washing looks good. They might not know that you the last time we talked, I don't know where he is now, but the last time we talked, you had him as wide receiver eight in your rest of season rankings. They might just be looking at, hey, he's been pretty good. He's been like a wide receiver, too. And, you know, kind of a nice find if you got him in rounds five or six, but that's just kind of okay. We have a much higher level of expectation and hype for Parker Washington going forward that I don't know if every single, you know, kind of more casual league has. So I really wanted to highlight him to say like, he has been good. This isn't a by low, but we think the ceiling is even better than this. When I put together the sheet, he was wide receiver 12. He's actually already bumped up to wide receiver 11 in the consensus rest of season rankings. But like I said, you had him inside the top 10 last time we talked about it. I think him versus a guy like Devonta Smith is a really interesting conversation. I think him versus a guy like Puka is an issue conversation. You just want to say, I don't want to deal with the injury stuff and everything going on with Puka. You could make that trade. I think Parker Washington is worth spending up for because as good as he has been this season, Erickson, I think we have still only been seen the floor, not the ceiling. And that should be really exciting for people because if this is the floor, what could the ceiling actually be for this rising star just scratching the surface. I think is a really great way to summarize the Parker Washington 2026 because in the end of 2025, he was on an absolute here. And there's nothing about what we've seen for the first three weeks of the season that suggests that that production is not going to eventually come to fruition here for the Jacksonville Jaguars and this offense. We want parts of this offense. This offense is a wagon with Liam Cohen. So I think that this is a really sharp by high type of scenario. It's very interesting because of where he gets baked into with the other receivers. I don't think that the receiver for receiver way for Washington, besides like you mentioned with the Puka Nikua thing, depending on how a certain manager feels about Puka when he's going to come back. How productive is he going to be? It's about risk tolerance for that. It's about risk tolerance, of course. And you do want to wait or do you want to take the production now because we know Parker Washington, he still produces at a very high level, even if there's a little bit more meat on the bone with what he can do. So I still have that wide receiver eight. I could definitely shift him around because he's around guys like London and Collins, pickins, a flower. So some guys that I was kind of waiting to see, okay, well, they're coming back from injuries. How are they going to do when they come back from their injury? I think that's the right conversation. But I think that the angle for Washington is trading or running back to get Parker Washington teams need running backs because of more injuries to the position. Find the HN manager, find the breeze hall manager. Maybe if they have Parker Washington to something along those lines, I think it's the best way to approach it because it's a lot easier for people to kind of gauge wide receiver or wide receiver. And a lot of the times, if you're just moving between tiers of players without like the risk associated with a player like a puka, I don't really recommend doing those types of trades because it's a lateral trade, right? It's like trade, drink London for Parker Washington. Great. It's a challenge trade. Yeah. Like we both got wide receiver ones like, okay, like you may like one guy more than the other, but if they're ranked back-to-back in rest season, rankings are wherever they're ranked, I don't really feel like your team is getting that much better. It's just, well, I think this guy's going to be a better rest season or etc. Whereas running back wide receiver trades, okay, you can actually make your team better for where you actually need the most help at wide receiver by going out and getting out of Park or Washington if you're running back situation is a little bit better. So it's a good name that we brought up. Yeah. It's one of those where like when you do this show, or if you've been listening to this show like every day, and you know, you're one of those types of listeners who are with us all the time, we really appreciate you. You might roll your eyes at the smith, okay, I thought everybody knows about Park Washington. I don't think that's the case for everybody though. So I really wanted to make sure I mentioned him in that framing. Like George Pickens was ahead of him when I put together the sheet and I was going to be like, I would trade Pickens for Park Washington pretty happily. He's now once about lower. So that is one where I would actually be interested in like a challenge trade in terms of the rankings, but I think it's a fair point that like so many people need running backs. And if you took Parker Washington, he's probably like your wide receiver to maybe even three. And therefore you could say like, oh, well, like I'm in such a dire straits. You're running back that I can now kind of make that trade. So he's he's also just an awesome player. Like I just I just want to have as much Parker Washington as I can this is Parker Washington behind his a flowers and Drake London now. He is behind both say flowers is wide receiver eight Drake London is wide receiver 10 and then Washington is wide receiver 11. Yeah. So I've just updated my so I I'm moving Parker Washington behind those two guys as well. I mentioned that I was still kind of figuring out how those guys were going to come back from their injuries and they both look really, really good or not Drake London's injury, but Michael Penex playing his first game. Yeah, obviously super. I think you could make a really interesting case of Justin Jefferson versus Parker Washington. Like Jefferson is ranked higher. And I think probably correctly. So I I have a degree of certainty with Parker Washington that I don't feel like I really have with Justin Jefferson ankle injury. Kyler of it all like I you know, we will we will see what that actually ends up looking like long term, but I think there is a very realistic possibility that Parker Washington outscores Justin Jefferson the rest of the season. We haven't really seen it with Kyler yet, right? Exactly. It's really weird that we've already played three games. Imagine saying this right where the Vikings are three no and we still have no idea how Kyler and Jefferson gel together like we literally have no idea how these guys play together and we still might not know if Jefferson doesn't play against Miami, which this would be the spot, right? Where he should just absolutely smash, but assuming assuming his ankle is okay, that should be the expectation. Yeah. Never wonder if you're winning a trade again, the fantasy pro's trade analyzer instantly evaluates any deal based on your roster scoring settings and league showing both the short and long term impact. It even supports dynasty trades involving players and picks analyze your next deal at fantasy pros.com slash analyzer or on the fantasy pros app. Erickson, give me a wide receiver to sell. So the theme with our running back trio to sell was selling the Buccaneers, right? You listed Bucky Irving as one of those options, and I said sell because I want to sell this Buccaneers offense, and that includes a mecha egg Buka. So this one I really toyed with for a long time, my wide receiver to sell, and I didn't want to just cop out and say, guys, just sell to get me a calf. Like, we know exactly what we're doing here. I didn't want to do that. I know he's coming off a game where we caught a touchdown, but with egg Buka, through three games, he has been outside the top 30 wide receivers and fantasy scoring. So that was with Baker Mayfield in this offense that has just been really underwhelming under new offensive coordinator Zach Robinson. They are seventh worst passing arts per game, fifth words, yards per play, six worth and total yards per game, and deadlast in EPA per play. This is what the 2026 10 Bay Buccaneers offense has been with its starting quarterback. Now you're throwing in an undrafted rookie free agent Jalen Daniels to be the starter for the next month or so for the season. I don't know if we even see Todd Bulls as the head coach by the time Baker Mayfield comes back to this team. We don't know, Zach Robinson's going to keep his job as the offensive coordinator. So I know that we were saying it tongue in cheek about how this boat is taken on water, the ship is sailed on the Buccaneers, all the puns you can think about. It's all true though. Like this offense is a disaster. So I don't want any part of it and I'm willing to sell a player like a Buka who has just been me to start the season has not really commanded this elite level amount of targets in the offense. Like we thought we would from a ascending second year player and really it's been more of what we saw in the second half of last year with a Buka and nothing like his hot start to his rookie year where he was a borderline fantasy wide receiver one. That guy has not returned or shown up in 2026. There's still other pass catchers and the soft ones that command targets Ted Hurst is making plays Chris Godwin is still out there. So for me a Buka I just he's a wide receiver three. Like that's where I think he should be appropriately valued and there's a scenario where it gets even worse because of how this offense might shake out without Baker Mayfield who was already playing really really bad. So I know that my process is always about buying the elite talents when their quarterbacks go down and I still think that is the right way to approach these situations most of the time. However, where is the elite at Buka? That is my main concern. I don't know if he is elite because we've seen it now for this year second half of last season we haven't seen that elite guy and that's what concerns me that he is not good enough to overcome the situation.
that is just getting worse and worse as the weeks go on in Tampa Bay. If this is a fire sale scenario where the fire the code to fire the O.C. The book is going to be drafting quarterback next year because they have a top five draft pick because that's how this story looks like it's shaping up. So, at Buka, is this just so obvious that Eric, you can't sell a book for anything like what are you doing? Or is there a name brand cash a with him where you can move him for something or a package him? Well, what's interesting with it Buka is it is a pretty encouraging schedule coming up green Bay and Dallas are the next two games. Those are two defense and again, we talked about in the running back show like Dallas is secondary is a non starter right now. So, maybe they get healthier by then, but right now that looks really appealing week six is Pittsburgh possibly Sono joy, Porter Jr. You get to Carolina who's given up a big game usually on the ground, but they have had you know, been down defense this year Chicago and Detroit are coming up shortly after that like the schedule is pretty encouraging. So, maybe that again, I talked about this a lot. Maybe that's a selling point in trying to move him and say, hey, like it's been tough. But look at the schedule coming up or maybe that's a reason to hold. I kind of lean more on the hold side than the cell. I wouldn't be buying. I am nervous enough and again, you said like you usually like to go buy receivers after the quarterback goes down, I wouldn't do that here. So, I'm with you in that regard. I do think I just it's hard for me to forget about the first impression right that we saw for him last year and I also had high hopes for Zach Robinson. So, it's also hard for me to get rid of those entirely after three weeks and you know, the Vikings are a defense that are going to make a lot of teams look pretty bad and he still had nine targets five catches 62 yards like it wasn't this big breakout game, but you know, he's he led the team in receiving yards and and all that. So, like, I don't know, like there's enough there that I can't quite bring myself to give up on it, but having said all that that might be true of other managers in your league there they might be saying, oh, there's enough there. This is a guy who before the toe injury this summer, like I was going to take in like the third round of drafts, I got super excited about and they have this really nice schedule coming up. So, there might be somebody in your league who would pay more than I'm expecting you to get in which case that I am on board with it. So, that was really again long-winded way of me saying, like, I'm holding based on how I am valuing it Buka, but I think there's a chance that managers in your league are evaluating him more than I'm valuing him in which case, yes, I would be willing to sell in that scenario and it's good to just communicate with the league and say, hey guys, like I'm open to moving a Buka, I'm also open to holding him. I still do like him, but I wanted to throw it out there in case anybody is really buying into, you know, a nice kind of recovery of this season with Jalen Daniels or with the schedule coming up. So, I think it's worth communicating to your league that he's available, but that you're not desperate in just like trying to sell no matter what if that distinction makes sense. Yeah, I mean, all of this requires that nuance context because it's the price, right? What can you get for a Buka? Where is he in the rest of season rankings? He is at, I had his player card up. Why does he were 24? So that's, that's pretty good for someone else. It was high. It was 19 a week ago. It just dropped five spots in the last week. I mean, he has not finished as a top 24 receiver any week this season. Yeah. And that was with his starting quarterback. So is that even at the top 30? No, he's why do you were 32 is his best finish? Yeah. So that's what I mean. That's what really cuts it out to me where it's like the week that he scored the touchdown. He didn't have the art age or the catches to go on with it. So he hasn't really put together a complete week. We're seeing more of the bad version of Buka. Like we saw at the end of last year, his rookie season. And that's where I get concerned and the fact that he's still being valued as a top 24 guy when he has not been that guy with his starting quarterback, unless you want to spin it as Jalen Daniels and upgrade over Baker Mayfield. And I mean, the way Baker Mayfield's been playing, I don't necessarily disagree. But, but yes, to your point, like, I, that's why I just think that this is just going to get worse for Tampa Bay. Like when we're talking about next week, it's going to be a home man. They're facing the Dallas Cowboys, but oh, man, this offense was so bad in week four, it's green. Like that's the concern word. Then what are you doing with like Buka? So you held him versus that. Yeah, that's why I'm like, I think I just don't want a box man. Like, would you rather him or Lad McConkey? They're back to back. Oh, I would easy much. I have a lad easy. That's easy for me. Oh, really? Okay. I'm surprised that you would rather have a Buka than lad. No, no, no, I would rather have lad. I just, I thought it was close. I didn't think it was easy. Um, lad has been two bad weeks in a row. We just, we talked about that defense that Herbert has coming up when we talked about the quarterbacks. Like, lad has, his last two weeks were five fantasy points, eight point, six fantasy points. That's a wide receiver 61 and wide receiver 43 respectively. And now he gets at Seattle Denver at Kansas City by at Rams Houston at Baltimore. So like, I, I agree. I would prefer Lad, but I, I think it's closer than, than your action at least. Lad did hurt his rib. So that's one thing that at least I would give him that excuse. And there was that first drive in the first Chargers game where Lad and Herbert looked unstoppable, which has never been a case for anything with the Buccaneers offense this year. So, so like that itself would be the reason why I would gravitate towards lad as the option there. Because he's like, what, what about a Buka or rice who was getting terrible usage early on Debra was all over this, got better usage in week three. Would you rather have rice that wouldn't also easy? Yeah, rice definitely as well. Yeah, I, I agree on rice. Okay. One more Jamison Williams or a mecca Buka. He's two spots behind consensus. Yeah, Jamal has been not good to say the least. The first. We would say buns or cheeks. He doesn't deserve that. It's been so bad. The same Laporta splits have been bad for him in terms of how his targets perceptions yards have all dipped when Laporta has been healthy. And that has been the case. But going back to which offices do you want to attach yourselves to do you want the Buccaneers offense that is declining out the quarterback or do you want Jared Goff who plays in a dome with the terrible defense of plays and shoot outs. Jamison Williams could bust. But the games that he has monster performances. I'm willing to buy that. So I would also take Jamal here. I've got a wide receiver to sell for you Jordan Addison. He's wide receiver 43 in the rest of season consensus rankings. Obviously coming off of a nice game five catches 90 yards and a touchdown. I just kind of feel like Addison is such an up and down. He's such an up and down receiver already who's now playing with an up and down quarter back. And I just kind of want to take the opportunity coming off a really good game. I think there might be managers out there who say, okay, like seeing him really with Kyler. Maybe there's a nice connection here. I just kind of want to get advantage that and trade him. This might look really dumb because they play Miami this week. And maybe the correct answer is wait one more week. And then Oh, it's coming off of two really big games. And then you try to trade him. I'm not opposed to that being the path that you choose to take. But for me, I just think it's such a rollercoaster that I don't want to ride that coming off of a wide receiver 10 finish and a really nice game. I just want to kind of snap at the opportunity and see what I can sell him for. Because I don't think this is going to be a consistent thing with him given the offense he's in and the player he is. And I like the player just like, you know, this ankle injury doesn't seem that concerning for Justin Jefferson. So when he's back, what are the targets look like all of that. And, you know, he is not ranked that highly, which which I think is worth noting again, some of the names around him, Brian Thomas Jr. who has been buns slash cheeks from your dogs, who's been terrible case, he concepts young quote and stuff like it's he's not ranked amongst a bunch of receivers that are super appealing. So it might be that you actually can't get that much more. But I think if you can find a manager in your league who's like, oh, look at the connection with Kyler, Jefferson's banged up. I want this guy on my team. I think you take advantage of it. I agree. These boomer bust wide receivers that you can flip after they pop off. It's the same reason why you buy Jamie some Williams after he has turd games and then you sell them after I had James and Williams in mind when I mentioned this in the sheet, because I knew you would bring him up. Yeah. And I think to the fact that Jefferson is banged up a little bit, I think, and they're facing the dolphins. Like, there's a chance that Addison still has another really productive gaming week. I bet he does. I bet he has a big game this week. Yeah. But that's also a reason why. Okay. I don't need this type of production because nobody started him last week, right? So this is something I always think about with trades, right? Where someone blows up on your bench and you're super frustrated. Trade that guy because clearly you didn't have the confidence to start him anyway. Number one. And it's just going to. It's going to be a player that brings you more pain than success or joy because you never know when to start them trade those guys. Like those guys have no reason to be on your roster because all they do is just make you tilt your face off. So Addison, definitely one of those players move them. Yeah. Let's do some tight ends. You've got one to buy and one to sell. I can go through these a little quickly. Who do you have for us? So Travis Kelsey is going to be the guy for me to sell because I just don't think that his production is going to sustain here. So if you look at yards after the catch, Travis Kelsey leads the entire NFL and yards after the catch. And to me, that just seems very unsustainable for the soon to be 37 year old chiefs tight end. And the big thing and you actually kind of alluded this to when talking about Rashi rice. Rashi Rice had one of his biggest games of the year in week three caught seven of a team high nine targets for eight eight yards. He did outscore, but his target share tripled from week two up to nearly 35%
while Travis Kelsey's target chair fell by more than half, 23.4 to 11.5%. So Kelsey scored a touchdown. He got the first play of the game, a 48 yard catch and run. This is not going to sustain because we've seen in the past when Rashid Rice has been operating at a high level, he eats into Travis Kelsey's underneath targets. And that's not to say, Rice is actually being used a little bit more downfield. I just don't think that Kelsey's production is going to sustain the way that it's been over the last three games where he's been ripping off like these monster plays so much yards out to the catch. And he had his age. I don't think that's going to sustain Rice's career high in terms of target share happened in this last game. Third highest area of share ever in a game. So if Rice is now healthy and he's ready to go and this me rehab injury thing is all past him. And that's why he was struggling in the first two weeks of season to command targets. Then this is a rude awakening for those that have been riding Travis Kelsey. So the fact that he scored a touchdown last week, I think it's the perfect time to wipe your hands clean of Kelsey, cash out now because I don't think that it's going to get better if Rice continues to see this much involvement. Sorry, I was getting a call. Did you give your tie-to tie as well or just the cell? I got distracted. I didn't hear if you did that. Mm-hmm. Got distracted. See this is why you're going to be you're going to be out buying Travis Kelsey 37-year-old tie-to in a 28-year-old body. That's a work thing. I've paid attention to everything you said about Travis Kelsey. I just wanted to make sure I didn't miss did you also give the buy. No, I mean, it would not surprise me if I said Kyle Pits is a buy in a win in one year, one year or not the other because that's definitely what it feels like. And for starters, transparency, Kyle Pits was someone I was not drafting. Did not want any part of Kyle Pits in terms of his draft stock. I cited a lot of the Drake London splits, the Kirk Cousin splits, that he's much worse when Drake London is healthy in the lineup and that has been apparent for three games. He's much worse with Michael Pentax Jr. than Kirk Cousins and Cousins is not walking through those doors anytime soon to take over as the Atlanta Falcon starting quarterback. But that'll being said, I don't think what Kyle Pits has done through the first three weeks of the season is going to be what it looks like for the rest of the year, right? He's basically done nothing and I think it's fair to point to the first two weeks as, okay, Mulligan's. We talked about how this offense was so horrible with Cooper Rush as the quarterback. So I kind of want to give him a clean slate for those first two games. And then this past week, okay, it's the first game with Michael Pentax back Pentax is obviously going to lean on Drake London. And this is number one guy, which is what we've seen from in the past. Kyle Pits, another nothing burger for him. But now that it's been three weeks in a row, Kyle Pits is basically being dropped across leagues because he hasn't done absolutely nothing. But Stephanski, we've seen in the past operate with tight ends. And the thing with me, it's the price for pits where he's just in dirt cheap, man, like you're going to find him on waivers this week, people are going to be dropping him to pick up Cain Cedique and these other tight ends. I actually looked at him versus Cedique and my rest of season rankings for a long time, trying to figure out who I actually would want for the rest of the season. I don't know if actually came to a strong conclusion on which guy actually do want more Kyle Pits or Cain Cedique, but that's like the territory that we're talking about with his price. So the route participation is still okay. 75% I believe in his two healthy games or the two games that were not played by the Cooper Rush, where Cooper Rush in week two, they took Kyle Pits out of the game because it was a blowout. So that's my spiel on pits. Warm thoughts. I couldn't agree with you more on selling Kelsey. I couldn't agree with you less on buying pits and with pits. I'm actually in, I am in total agreement with you on tossing out those first two games, but it's not just week three that he has not been on the same page with Michael Pettics. It's been all the time. Yeah, you just hit on this like the manage pros has the with or without you kind of splits tool would strongly encourage everybody to check out Kyle Pits with Michael Pettics Jr. as the quarterback. He almost cuts his fantasy points in half that he scores. It goes from on average 13.18 with Pettics not there to 7.79 with Pettics in, you know, the targets are down by a couple. The receptions are obviously down receiving yards go from 57 issue game to 35 a game. He just doesn't get the usage and the look, Pettics loves throwing a Drake London. He does not throw to Kyle Pits that much and so while I'm okay to throw out weeks one and two, I'm not okay to throw out week three because I think that's more reflective of what Pits has been with Pettics as a quarterback in the future. So I with with Drake London healthy and performing and Michael Picks healthy. I don't I don't see Michael Pettics healthy. I don't think that there's going to be a lot there for for Kyle Pits. So I'm not interested in buying him. He's tied in 14 rest of season rankings. Like I'd rather take an injured Terrence Ferguson right now and hope that when he's healthy, he's getting better, you know, the usage we were hoping for this week. Mark Andrews has looked good at times this year. He hasn't been that productive yet. I think I'd rather have him than Kyle Pits. Jake Ferguson I think is not something that I want to be heavily investing in, but like I do think he'll be more productive than Pits for as long as as panics is the quarterback here. On the Kelsey side, I again couldn't agree more just given the age early production. Like I just don't think it's going to last throughout the entire season. And and I'd be really interested in selling. Would you sell Kelsey for Pits straight up? Because there's a five spot gap in the rest of season rankings at tight end between them. I know I think I would definitely aim higher than Pits because like that again, I don't want to be clear, right? Because I agree with you in terms of Pits as he's production has fallen. That's why I didn't draft Pits, right? Like this is not a problem that I'm really running into. It's because I did not like Pits in the combination, but the fact of the matter is the dude is now free, right? And he was a tie-in that was draft as a top 10 guy, consensus tied end during draft season. The two bad in the fact that it's been three compounded bad games, I just think that there's an opportunity for her. Hey, see what happens, right? Is he going to have one catch every single week? No, especially with the fact that it's such a concentrated target chair between guys like London, Johan Dawson doesn't catch targets in this offense. So in Kevin Stavansky, right? That was one of the big selling points for the pit stands was Stavansky likes to feature tight ends. And he continues to talk about how, okay, we got to get Pits more involved. So I do think that he's going to see more volume in future weeks. It feels crazy to think that you'd rather have Pits than Kelsey, but I think when we have this conversation in a couple of weeks, it may not seem as crazy. Pits is hard from bullet proof, right? As we've seen when he plays with London and also with Michael Pennex, but man, I think I think I want more kelp more for Kelsey because Kelsey has been really, really good and really productive. I think you should definitely aim higher. I don't think I would do a tight end for tight end trade with Kelsey. I think it's tight end for best available running back receiver. Whoever has the worst tight end situation, I am sending them. Yeah, but you might need to get a tight end back, you might not have another one if you have Kelsey. Well, I mean, you could show you Kelsey and pick up calipits after you get dropped. Because I think I think that's the thing. Pits is getting, I mean, people in discord asking me, can I drop Pits? Can I drop Pits? Can I drop Pits? Yeah, I mean, a fair question. So he does OS six touchdowns. He gets, whatever year of the league he's in, he gets that many touchdowns. And this is your six. So you know, in the, you know, that we know when they're coming weeks 4 through 18. Yes. All right. Let's do some bicellular holds. Excuse me on the receivers. Then we'll get out of here. I mentioned a couple actually all three of these names have been mentioned over the course of the show. So we'll do the first one here. Lad Maconkey, Jamison Williams, Rishi Rice. Again, all of them will come up earlier on the episode. So I'm curious what direction you're going. Bicellular hold Lad Jamison Williams and Rishi Rice. Yeah, you slide dog sliding all these names in so that I already give out takes and then I have to either stick to them or completely change my trend of thought. Bicell hold Lad Jamo rice. So rice is definitely a hold. I think you're seeing the usage trend in the positive direction for him. He was something that I was kind of on the fence with last week. And now after obviously seeing what happened in Miami, that's positive. So I want to hold Rishi Rice. Jamison Williams is always just lines offense, man. You just want to have parts of it. And if he can catch fire like he did in the second half of last year, he's a good bi-low target. Feel like he's always a good bi-low target. Like when in doubt, I'm just like, just buy Jamison Williams. I'm like, like, you know he's going to have a couple big games. So Jamo would be the buy in the lad. I know I did talk about him over at Buka, but at Buka was also my cell. So unless I can sell Lad or sell at Buka to get lad, probably something to add to. So, see, so that that easy choice of him was relative to Buka not. Yes, yeah. That's a good way to paint a picture of it. One other trio here. How about three rookie receivers, Erickson, Biceller Hold, Denzel Boston, Carnell Tate, Casey Conceptsio. You sick, sick fiend putting these three rookies against each other. I think you got to hold Denzel Boston. Maybe he's even the buy, honestly. Honestly, I think Denzel Boston might be the buy because he's coming off a game where not super productive out-targeted by Casey Conceptsio. Exception was brutal, though in terms of his actual efficiency with the amount of volume that he got, which to me isn't a signal of, oh, this is a guy, this is time to buy a low on a receiver. It's okay, we gave Casey Conceptsio a ton of volume and it was not good. Let's give them all somebody else. Unfortunately, I think that's how Coach is thinking.
of the stat line, Erickson, nine targets. And he was wide receiver 102 on the two catches for nine yards on those nine targets, dude. That is brutal. So that's tough to obviously be like, yeah, you got to hold on to this guy. Boston has definitely been the better of the two Cleveland Browns rookies. So I think that he would be the buy. He did have another catch in this past game like a wiped out through to a penalty. So if that catch accounted, he would have been closer, I think, to around 64 receiving yards total, which is more in line with his first two weeks of actual production. So Boston, maybe there's a bit of a buying window with him after he was out targeted by case in conception, even though he was more productive again. So Boston will be my buy conception on for sure prize myself, even though I think both Browns receivers are kind of holds. I think the fact that Boston has just been so much better than conception on a start the year, just maybe too aggressive, assuming that conception would be the number one receiver in this offense. So maybe he would be probably my cell. Again, if you can sell off the targets, that makes sense. And then no one's buying car and I'll take anyway. So you can't really sell him. So he would probably be my hold because I do think that he has looked decent at times. Attached to cam wars, never fun. But that's why you can't really trade him for anything. So I will hold car and I'll take hold onto the top five talent, 25% target share back to back weeks. And I'm not afraid of Wanda Robinson being like a major thorn in his side for the majority of the season. Colonel Tade, I feel very much like the brave heart gif of just hold, hold like I've tried to give it like, I know it's not been good. Top five rookie receivers, it just is a smart bet. Like even if it doesn't look good in the first three weeks of the season, it might not pan out. I'm not saying if they 100% stone cold lead pipe lock. I am saying that it is a smart bet to hold on those types of players do. Can you trade conception on to get car and I'll take. So by the way, I was going to mention these guys are all ranks very near each other in the consensus, rest of season rankings. It's Boston, Wider Seever 39, Tate Wider Seever 40, conception on Wider Seever 42. So they are all right within each other. Yeah. So I'm actually higher on all those receivers relative to the rest of season rankings, but I also have them in that order of Boston. Would you would you trade Jordan Addison for any of these guys? I think I'll trade for Boston probably. Addison is behind all four or all three of them in consensus, the rest of season behind them are in front of them behind them. He's Wider Seever 43. They're 39, 40, 42. He's right behind. He's once by behind conception. Yeah. So yeah, I actually think I agree with holding Tate if you have him. I would be willing to buy him. Honestly, again, just on principle, I don't think it would cost much. I would not spend up, but I would be willing to buy him at what I think is a low cost on principle and just blindly trust top 10, top five rookie receivers. It later in the season. Just blind, blind faith comments. Look, let warm here at his week one cell is now by Carl Tate. I really do not think the Titans offense is any good. I mean, dude, you're not. I stand by that early stance, but again, unprinciple like this is a smart thing to do. So you can sell them by players at different weeks and different times because the price has gone down. It's not going up. Also, like, man, he could have had a better game, like if if a game working on the end zone, like, but yeah, I don't know. Again, I don't think they're they're any good. They also do have a little bit of a nice schedule at the end of the season. I think you could pick between Boston and Tate and be fine. I wouldn't argue, but I agree with conception as a cell there. We'll go ahead and wrap things up there. Thanks for being here for checking this out. If you missed part one, please go check out the running backs and quarterbacks version of this show that we did as well for Ericsson. I'm Ryan Wormley. We'll see you again next time. Thanks for listening to the fantasy pros fantasy football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at fantasy pros.com/review or on Spotify. Follow us on X, Instagram and TikTok @fantasypros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at youtube.com/fantasypros. On Big Lives, we take a single cultural icon, and we pull apart the story behind the image, discovering forgotten interviews that change exactly how we see these giants of our culture. I'm Emmanuel Jochi, I'm Kai Wright, and this is Big Lives. 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Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The podcast discusses fantasy football trade strategies, emphasizing urgency for teams at 0–3 to act aggressively to secure playoff chances.
Wide receiver Tyler Ward (Teterola McMillan) is highlighted as a high-upside buy due to elite target volume, injury absences from other receivers, and a prime matchup in a Sunday night game.
Parker Washington is positioned as a breakout candidate despite early underperformance, with strong projections for ceiling growth and value relative to peers like Devonta Smith and Justin Jefferson.
Buka (Bukka) is recommended for sale due to poor performance in a declining Buccaneers offense, especially with weak quarterback usage and a projected worsening schedule.
Jordan Addison is suggested as a tradeable asset after a strong performance, given his inconsistent production and fluctuating performance with an up-and-down quarterback.
Travis Kelsey is recommended for selling due to unsustainable high yards-after-catch production and increased competition from Rashi Rice, who is now healthy and gaining targets.
Kyle Pits is deemed a poor buy despite low cost, as his production drops sharply with Michael Penix Jr., and he lacks consistent usage in the Falcons’ offense.
Rookie receivers Denzel Boston and Carnell Tate are recommended as holds or buys, with Boston seen as the most promising due to better early performance and potential breakout value.
Summary:
The podcast offers a detailed fantasy football trade analysis focused on wide receivers, tight ends, and rookies. Teams in early-season trouble (0–3) are urged to act decisively to secure playoff eligibility, emphasizing short-term gains over long-term planning. Tyler Ward is identified as a high-potential buy due to elite target share, injury absences, and a prime Sunday night matchup.
Parker Washington is highlighted as a rising star with strong ceiling potential, despite modest early results, suggesting value beyond current projections. Buka is recommended for sale due to poor performance in a failing Buccaneers offense, while Jordan Addison is seen as a tradeable asset after a breakout game. Travis Kelsey is targeted for removal due to unsustainable production and rising competition from Rashi Rice.
Kyle Pits is dismissed as a poor value due to inconsistent usage with new quarterbacks. Among rookies, Denzel Boston is viewed as the best buy due to superior early performance, while Carnell Tate and Casey Converse are held as low-risk options. The analysis underscores the importance of injury context, quarterback stability, and matchup value in trade decisions, with a clear emphasis on buying high-upside, low-usage players when opportunities arise.
FAQs
Teterola McMillan is a strong buy due to high target volume and a recent lack of touchdowns, especially with Jalen Coker out. He's also playing in a prime-time game against the Cleveland Browns, increasing his visibility and potential for big performance.
Parker Washington has shown consistent production and a rising ceiling, especially with Trevor Lawrence. Despite being a rookie, he's outperformed expectations and has been featured in high-level fantasy discussions, making him a strong value pick for fantasy managers.
Buka is a risky hold due to poor usage in a struggling Buccaneers offense. While he has some targets, his performance has not been consistent, and the offense is expected to decline further. Selling him could provide value in a trade for more reliable players.
Yes, Addison is a volatile player with inconsistent production, especially in an unstable offense. After a strong game, trading him presents a good opportunity to acquire a more reliable asset, particularly if a manager is seeking stability.
Yes, Travis Kelsey should be considered for sale due to age and declining production. His target share has dropped significantly, and with Rashid Rice now healthy and more involved, Kelsey's role is expected to diminish in the coming weeks.
No, Kyle Pits is not a viable buy despite low cost. His fantasy production drops sharply when playing with Michael Penix Jr., and he receives minimal targets. He is better off held or traded for a more reliable option.
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