Week 3 Prediction Show + JP Poll & CFB Overreactions

[Music] One of the best parts about college football culture is message board culture. However, counterpoint, one of the worst parts of college football culture is message board culture. On this Tuesday, September 15, the year of our Lord, 2026, jam pack, tie top of lovely downtown Nashville, Tennessee, I am ashamed to report to you, Jesse, the control room, everybody watching live that yes, I have been in the war chant thread about the moving trucks outside Mike Norvel's house. I didn't post in there, but I went down the rabbit hole, and I'm not a better man for it, so I just suggest everyone stay off the internet tonight. LSU Ole Misses this week, but that's not the only one. See, casuals out there would call this Armageddon 2000, you know, like a one-match card. It's like the main event, and then just discard the rest. No, no, it's not even the game. We're going to be out. We're going to be an Auburn for the Florida game. Do you understand we have Camario Taylor and Lenora Sellers on the same field, probably not at the same time? But Mississippi State South Carolina is huge this week. Louisville has to use huge this week. Houston, Texas, tech people is huge this week. I think Kentucky, Texas, say, and them could be weird. We're not going to break it down tonight, but you got to dive deep on these weeks. This is the kind of weeks where insanity happens. Speaking of insanity, there's some overreactions. Or are they overreactions, taking place out there in the college football world? I will discuss those. I think this is the first week that I could safely say that the JP poll itself may be partaking in some drug use because I have hard disagreements. As do you judging by the comments. So I mean, we've had a jam pack show all that plus a very, very strong rumor that may have some legs. And it's about me. So I should know. I'm a pretty good source on this. They're watching us in Clemson, South Carolina. Fort Collins, Colorado, Sparks, Georgia, Spokane, Washington. The numbers are phenomenal on the show. The channel is blowing up. Thank you for those of you who have subscribed. If you have not, you hear how hard it is for me to say. So I don't want to repeat it. Please subscribe to the channel and like the video. Guys, it doesn't cost you a dime. It's free. It helps us. It doesn't affect you. The rumors, you know what? I'll address the rumors later, but there are rumors about next week. There are rumors about the future of this show. All good rumors, not bad rumors. But there are rumors, Jesse. I don't know if you've heard these or not about where we're going to be next weekend and what we could be doing next weekend. And we'll discuss later in the show in the meantime. Let's dive in. If you notice my eyes dancing all over the studio. It's because we have one, two, too many to count, too many monitors to count out here. But I can see the live chat. Bozer city Louisiana tuned in. Texas is bad. I don't there's no context to that comment. I can see the live chat. Big 10 sucks. I think that's a little hasty. LSU Ole Miss, ladies and gentlemen, it's finally time Saturday night 7 30 Eastern 6 30 local time kickoff on ABC. This game presented by factor as was my second lunch today. I am going to have to warn you as we head into this game about something that is called the lane tax. You're going to have to pay a pretty hefty lane tax on this game this week. Now, for those of you who are not new to the show, you're familiar with the Dion tax. The lane tax is a close cousin of the Dion tax. And that's this thing that happens and it'll happen all this week. It'll happen with this game. It happens with lane kiffing a lot where he is such an enigmatic figure. And he commands so much attention that the interest in him expands beyond the normal college football bubble, which means you attract the drive by crowd. This game will attract the drive by crowd. Just walk around your office. Talk to your friends and family throughout the week. And school, listen to your classmates. Some people who you never even watched college football, you'll start to hear talk about this game. And you weren't wrong about them. They don't watch college football, but they know about lane kiffing. And they know he left Ole Miss and whatever they think about it's whatever they think about it. Now he's going back and boy, that's got casual attention. That's got casual appeal. So you're going to hear some people say some really stupid stuff this week because they're uneducated on this. Let's do not shoot these people down. We've got room at the table for them. But this is called the lane tax. So you're just going to have to grit your teeth a little bit. When you hear the conversation around this game this week, pleasantries aside, this is pure hatred. I've heard lane talk this week. I'm actually going to play some sound in a second from him. I've heard Pete talk this week. The players are mostly going to say the right things. These people hate each other. As they should. Competitively, hatred is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. As Mimaw used to say sports exist so that we can feel things that we otherwise shouldn't feel towards our fellow man out on the street in the real world. Who needs this game more? I've got an opinion. You've got an opinion. You know who else has an opinion? lane kiffin. And here he is earlier this week on who the pressure is really on in this game. But I told the players today, man, you don't have anything to worry about as far as attention on you all week and every day. There's going to be so much attention hatred on me. You just get to go play. And I said, really, the pressure is on them. They're the team that we won seven games last year. They won 13. They return to Heisman candidates. How often does that ever happen in the same backfield? We had at one time with bat liner, Reggie Bush. And second longest winning streak in the country. So you guys just get to go play and the pressure is not on you. Before the record, I kind of agree with that. There's a lot of folks hate lane kiffin. I do think Ole Miss needs the game more. However that affects the outcomes, however it affects the outcome. Let's talk about the game here. Question for you. What is Ole Miss defensively? I found myself asking myself after the Louisville game in week one, 38 points given up, 469 yards given up. But hey, what if Louisville's like a top 20 offense? I think they validated a lot of what people believed about them, what people thought Lincoln Keenholz could be and will be under Jeff Brahms. Who knows, maybe that week one matchup took Ole Miss by surprise a little bit. Maybe there's still some settling in there. What does LFU offensively? Everyone thinks they know this because everyone's mind is going to default back to the Clemson game. Now I would argue one game is not enough sample size. But if you believe one game is enough sample size, why is your mind automatically going into the Clemson game? Why would it not go to, oh I don't know, mid-third quarter last week when it's 13 to 7 against Louisiana Tech and Levitt's thrown three picks, two of them in the red zone. Why would your mind not go to that game? Why would your mind not go to that offensive line given up five sacks and 11 tackles for loss? Why would your mind not go to them averaging just 3.3 yards per carry? 10 penalties. Like why would your mind not go to that game? Why would it go to the Clemson game? My point there is we don't really fully know yet. Clemson may just be secret garbage. I think that's a Dan Rubenstein phrase that I love. I've taken it with me. I apply it to matters outside of football, but especially in football. And we hadn't seen them on the road yet. So we don't really know. So as many people question Ole Miss defensively, which I've heard him do from coast to coast this week, might we need to question LSU offensively a little bit more? These are fair questions, I think. I think the hinge point in this game and many games for LSU this year will be, can they run the ball? And of course, they're kind of two layers to this. You've got the old school conventional ground game, which is Dylan Jones getting it cranked and that LSU offensive line really validating the belief people have in it and they go on the road. And they're better than him carrying the ball 18 times for 86 yards. You know, maybe it's 14 carries for 146. And maybe they're way up there over 4.0 yards per carry traditional carries. That's part one, part two, obviously, is we've watched Sam Levitt already. And we know what he can do with his legs. And I think it's a really big test for LSU's offensive line. It's a really big test for their tail backs. This is the kind of game where you know, man, quarterbacks going to have to put his face in there a little bit too. LSU is going to play a few of those games this year and he kind of wins every time, but that's football. It is what it is. Louisville's tail backs. 23 carries for 92 yards. Okay, so if LSU's in that range, what do I need to get from Sam Levitt? Let's just play that out. Let's say LSU has about the same amount of success running the ball at the tail back position that Louisville did. What will I need from Sam Levitt? Well, that answer can be found in the next question. And that is, how does this whole Trinidad Chameless Kiwan Lacey versus American Hero Blake Baker match up play out? Because I'll tell you what they believe in LSU. They believe they can win games defensively. They believe they've got on the high end one of the best defenses in the country. They believe they've got the best defensive coordinator in the country. And on the latter point, I'm not even particularly going to push back on it. On the former point, I'm not hardcore pushing back either. I just think there's still some facets of that that remain to be seen translation. It's week three, so we don't know everything we need to know yet. But the answer for Trinidad Chameless is that there hasn't been an answer. If there was an answer for him, you know who I think would have found it, Jesse. I think Kirby smart. Georgia would have found it. Pretty good defensive outfit in Athens, right? Pretty good. Considerably across the years, one of the better if not the best defensive teams in the country and they had no answer for him. So it's not will he get his, it's to what degree does he get his. But I'm really interested to see the kinds of matchups that Ole Miss can get for like Duce Alexander, who is a stud and who really jumped off the screen against Louisville in week one because like for instance, there's a lot of faith at LSU in their DB room. But then again Clemson was not in a position at quarterback where they could really test him there. Ole Miss will be and Ole Miss has a dynamic guy at quarterback that can make you respect every facet of his game. So I'll be interested to watch that, I'll tell you what else I'll be interested to watch. Maybe like a delayed watch here because Clemson couldn't do anything in week one. I want to know exactly how good that LSU defensive front is because one of the places Ole Miss has some good experience is on the interior of their offensive line. And for the all-world potential that LSU has up front, there is still some youth there. Maybe it doesn't matter, maybe those guys are just that talented. And I still want to trust yet verify. The most extreme variance game of the entire season that will play out against highly ranked teams could be right here Saturday night in Oxford, Mississippi. Sometimes you know when you go into a game, you say, "Oh man, this will be close either way." This will be a one possession game either way. I would never say that about this game. If you told me either of these teams were about to win by 20, it would not shot me because they're so. it's like watching pinball. Both ways. I don't mean pinball in a sense that each of them are going to score 40 plus. I just mean pinball that there's so many potential explosive factors here, potential explosive players. You have high variance and defensive scoring or defensive plus field position set up in this kind of game to where LSU or Ole Miss, if you were to tell me you're going to get an A- or better game offensively. Many things in play for either of them, especially if you get both of them saying that, then yeah, you got the makings of a five-challie classic. The external factors, you notice I haven't really touched on those, only because I think the football game's plenty good enough to where we don't have to talk about this, but it is a real thing. Sometimes the off-field stuff is hyped up and overblown, not here. This matters a whole lot. It matters to Pete Golding and his staff a whole lot. It matters to the people of Mississippi a whole lot. I promise you, it matters to Lane Kiffin and a lot of the guys, including players that left there, but when you talk about taking it personal and you talk about it really boiling your blood at the end of the day, this is a guy who was your head coach and then looked elsewhere and said, "I can do better than you." Now he has to come back, not home, but he has to come back to what formerly was his home. You got an excellent shot to beat him, we'll see if you do it. He has LSU currently as a two and a half point favorite. What does the model think about this game? The model thinks the wrong team is favored in this game. Do you believe that Jesse? Wrong team favorite. The model apparently was on vacation during that Clemson game. I don't know what happened there. You know what I think, I think desperation leads to really inspired performances and as much as I believe in LSU down the road a little ways. I still think there may be some loose parts here. And as a result, I'm going to go against the judgment I had when I woke up this morning. I'm going to follow the model. I think Ole Miss is going to win this game outright. I do think the wrong team is favored. So give me the rebels. I will take any points that you give me, but I'll take them on the money line. Ole Miss wins the game outright. Now remember, no matter what happens in this game, Ole Miss has to go where next week Jesse gainsville Florida and Florida will be coming off a game against Auburn and that will be in Jordan, here's stadium and that is where we're headed. Where are we going down there? We're going down there Thursday. We're going to get down there a day early. That's just how much we love hanging out in Lee County, Alabama. Also, I grew up 45 minutes from there, 40 minutes depending on how fast you drive on 280. So the don't try it on Saturday tour is headed to Auburn. We'll do our live show on ESPN there Friday at one central, so one local time, two Eastern, and the don't tread on Saturday orange and blue theme shirts are in the store as of right now. Paidstatematerial.com, buddy, we're moving some of those. Jesse, you didn't see the numbers because I didn't give them to you. I'm sorry. You're just going to have to take my word for it. A lot of people are buying the Auburn don't tread on Saturday shirts. And here's what I don't know. I don't know how long Alex leaves those up in the store. So if you're planning on buying one eventually, you might want to buy one immediately. I'm not going as far as to say we'll sell out of them because it's because we have a really big warehouse, but you're going to want to go ahead and jump on it. Hey, everyone, I'm Mikey Am. And I'm Trevor Sikama. And together, we host the NFL Fantasy football show fantasy season is upon us. Are you ready to dominate your league? Because if you weren't locked in with us on the NFL fantasy football show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. Injury updates that you'll need before kickoff. The best starts and sits across every position. And matchups, you can exploit to destroy your leaguemates. 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They are bringing you a Lombardi back to the Northwest. If it's happening on a football field, NFL Daily will cover it. Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. I'm Britt Coleman and I'm Trevor Sikama. If you've ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score, that's exactly why we created NFL Pro-Scrowt got a man wide open. Every week we use exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups, and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies, and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts. We use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. So whether you're a casual fan learning more about football or a hardcore fan who can't get enough analysis, our goal is to help you see the game. If you've ever wanted to know why a playwork, how a matchup was won, or what most fans missed on Sunday, NFL Pro delivers insights you simply can't get anywhere else. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Alright let's move on. Actually, let's stay right there, Florida at Auburn Saturday, 7 o'clock Eastern, 6 o'clock Central Kickoff, what an environment. I don't want to just look past this, this game's presented by Jimmy Johns. By the way Jesse, you look hungry in there. Well, good news. You can order the new barbecue brisket sandwiches. Jimmy johns.com or download the Jimmy johns out today, Jesse, right now this game is going to be awesome. So awesome that we have chosen to go there classic rubber band game. Most of you have no idea what I'm talking about when I say that, but I love the spot because it's a rubber band game for both teams. If you think about it, we were we were circling this game way back in July because I said, all right, Auburn's got a test in week one. If they beat Baylor, I trust john summer all to take care of who was it, Florida Atlantic and Campbell. And I think both of them will be undefeated and if they're both undefeated, this is going to be early enough in the season where obviously there's immense belief in both camps and what they are is they're both rubber bands that are pulled back, but someone's got to release the rubber band because you don't really know playing Florida Atlantic and Campbell. It's your first time on the road and conversely with Auburn. You don't know Baylor may or may not be good. This is your first dive into SEC play with a new head coach. And it just so happens to be against the head coach. You thought that you were going to hire before stuff happened and he goes to Florida and you got out of schoolish who I think is an incredible fit for Auburn. But you know what Florida is, Jesse? They are two things. They are favored in this game slightly and they're 0 and 6 in their last six SEC road games. There's no shame on John Summerall, none of that is his fault. It's a new day and the guy responsible for that only hung 87 last Saturday at his new home. Is the wrong team favored? That's what I want to ask quite frankly. I think this element exists in a few big games this weekend. Let's just walk this through, shall we? One quarterback in this game is making his 35th career start. The other is making his fourth career start his first on the road in SEC play. One team in this game has already battled against a powerful opponent right down to the wire and one and that team is at home against another team that has a lot of newness, totally new staff, never experienced this level of ball. Sounds kind of disrespectful, but still point remains and they got to go on the road for the first time and they haven't really faced anyone. Here's a question. If you've watched Auburn, you'll know exactly what I mean by this. Is Auburn's offense rhythmic enough? It's a word I use mostly in music. I use it about five times per year, mainly when talking about college football offenses. If you've watched Auburn, well if you watched him last week, God bless you with Southern Miss, go eags of course. We are a show that supports Southern Miss for reasons that I don't have time to get into, but I will get a text about momentarily. But there is something that still feels slow about Auburn's offense. It could be that Alex Golaish hits us up right afterwards and says, "Nope, that's the way it's supposed to look. I don't know though. It just, I don't, it feels a touch slow." That's about a specific breakdown as I can give you on that. But then again, it wouldn't be the craziest concept if you were to tell me, "Gosh, it'll be okay. They just need a few games." Maybe so. Maybe so. That's the case. We'll see it settle more into rhythm this week. If it doesn't, they're going to be in trouble unless you just shut Florida out and more on that in a second. But it seems a touch off. And secondly, I don't think Byron Brown can beat me with his arm. That's what I think if I'm Florida coming into this game, whether I'm right or wrong, I'm going to look at him and I'm going to see him getting sacked five times and taking eleven tackles for loss and throwing three picks against Baylor. And I'm going to say I can limit you on the ground. You go beat me with your arm and whatever. You're a good player. You've thrown for a million yards in your career. I'll tip my cap, but I don't think you can do it. I understand the sentiment behind backing Florida in this game. Because Florida's, Florida's roster, this right here, it looks shinier. It just looks more impressive. I think Florida has better players than Auburn. I'm not going to do the whole position versus position thing, but when you look at that wide receiver room and you look at Wilson and Brown, Singleton, we think will play this week, you got one of the best tail backs in the country lining up in your back field. Here's the question, can you distribute the ball? Because if you can't, all of it means nothing. If you've watched Florida football the last few years, you found yourself saying that. And so it's a new day down there and you got a new coordinator and you got a new quarterback. And I got a lot of confidence in him. It's not like I'm doubting them. I just want to see it. This is the verification part of the season. The things I trust, I want to see verified. And I just want to say for anyone out there who's looking at this match up and saying, dude, I love Florida in this spot. Why is it only minus two and a half? I just want you to be cautious. I don't want you to be burning money here. This is no lot. This is no short thing. Those don't exist early in the year. I want to make sure we properly emphasize what it means for a new quarterback and a new coordinator, even though they are attached at the hip, but they're new at Florida, along with a new operation to be going on the road for the first time. Alabama went to Kentucky last week. Bama eventually pulled away in the game. You wouldn't have known that was coming at the half because they looked ten kinds of discombobulated and that's a staff that's been there for three years, but what they have got a new quarterback. To it took a little while to settle in. Now, Bama had better players than Kentucky. Eventually, they pulled away. These rosters are probably a lot more comparable than Alabama versus Kentucky, so if you just close your eyes and you picture this place at full throat on Saturday night, it's going to be a madhouse. You got DJ Durkin there for all the newness that Alex Gold is brought in. DJ Durkin's still there. He's the same old DJ Durkin. A lot of these defensive players are those same old defensive players, and this is a really good defensive unit. Takes a lot of pride in performance, Jaden Ball, incredible player. And if he's putting up four and a half yards per carry Saturday night, and they're getting the ball to Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown, if all of them are getting involved, Florida will win this game. I got very little doubt about that. If everything clicks for Buster Faulkner, if he defies conventional wisdom, and they just head out into the SEC and have no problem, good for them, they won the game. I think fresh off the Oklahoma Michigan experience last week, I am very hesitant to believe that a college football game is just going to kind of play out the way you feel like it should play out. I'm very, very cautious of this game. Let's take a look at what the model thinks. Florida is favored by two and a half, and yet again, the model thinks the wrong team is favored. And you know what? Early in the season, Jesse, shake your head all you want to. I think the wrong team may be favored too. So I'm going to take Auburn to win outright. It's War Eagle, Jesse. That's what it is this week. There's some embarrassing hand gestures being made behind the glass from someone who does not have to own it. I've got to own it. Jesse, I got to show up Sunday night. I've got to be the face of this pick unless it loses. So yeah, we're going to take Auburn to win outright. Obviously, you see my hands shaking? It's not just caffeine intake. I'm nervous. I'm nervous about this pick. So either I'll win or Alex Goulish will lose. And I think that's fair. Based on our paychecks, I think that's a fair trade-off. Did you hear them talking about friendship earlier this week, by the way? Hey, well, I should have loaded up the sound. Huge credit to Alex Goulish. Everyone said it was performative. And everyone said some were all, you're not my family anymore. If you're rooting for Auburn, everyone said that was performative. I don't care if it is performative. I don't like friendship in sports. Friendships okay outside of sports. I cannot stand how many people are in such a hurry to let everyone know, oh, we're really friends. We really get along. I mean, I know he's wearing my rivals Jersey, but oh man, that stuff doesn't matter. We're all friends. I don't want friendship. I don't want it at all. So I know some were all in Goulish know each other very well. We know them very well. I don't want them smiling this week. I want a cordial quick handshake after the game. If the ESPN cameras need you at midfield, at 30 minutes before kickoff, so they can get the B-roll. That's fine. But I don't need all that. And Alice Goulish said earlier this week, he said we were friends. Not this week. We're not. Not this week. Good. Good. So there are strong rumblings. We got into the show a little ways. There are strong rumblings about next week. They don't tread on Saturday tour. Where's it headed next week? Now as you know, I normally don't announce this until Sunday night. But a very special don't tread on Saturday, allegedly. This is all alleged right now, an extra special stop is being planned for next weekend. Who knows which game it could be, but this is week four next weekend. And the reason it's so special is because not only will we allegedly do our Friday afternoon show there, not only will we allegedly be on the sideline for the game Saturday, but Jesse allegedly a Friday night live show at some event location in said city allegedly is going down. I heard, this is what I heard you tell me if you've heard otherwise, I heard that location will be revealed in the Thursday show. And I also heard that tickets will immediately go on sale for that. event right after it gets announced on the Thursday show. Now, that would be pretty wild. But that's just what I heard. I don't know. I guess we'll all have to wait for Thursday and find out together. They're watching us in Decatur, Alabama, and Sacramento, California, and Brian, Texas. Thank you so much for tuning in. I've got terrible news. The JP poll has dropped. The JP poll, not rankings, power ratings. This is a fight that I will fight for the rest of my life. But I need to address some things right off the top. I don't agree with this thing this week. So anyone who is saying that the JP poll is on drugs, mostly you're wrong. Except this week, I think you may be right. I'm giving you a second to soak all of this in. If you're seeing it for the first time, if you're listening on podcast, you're going to have to check social, the graphics there. Oklahoma is 13th. Michigan is not power rated. And that's a problem for a lot of people because they, as you, as you know, these teams just played, Jesse, these teams just played and Michigan one by seven. We know we were there right there on the field. We watched it happen in front of God and everyone. And so some of the feedback I got today was overwhelming. Nick is going to speak for the masses. He said, how does Oklahoma only drop two spots? Michigan isn't ranked at all. Firstly, these aren't rankings. Their power ratings. Secondly, Michigan didn't drop. Okay. I checked with the model. Michigan actually rose 1.3 points. It's just that some other teams rose higher. So they didn't drop. They actually improved their rating. But I do agree that Oklahoma at 13 is insane because I got news for you. There are some teams ranked, excuse me, power rated below Oklahoma that I would favor against Oklahoma on a neutral field. So I do grant you that. I do agree that there's a little discrepancy here. However, the basic principle in play is Oklahoma still being overmishing. That's correct. That's not incorrect. The only thing we're trying to prove here, the only thing we're trying to figure out is which teams would be rated over which teams on a neutral field. Well, this is easy guys. We hit up Fandall and they said, if Oklahoma and Michigan played again this week on a neutral field, oh, you would be favored by three. So that part is a no brainer. If you're, listen, just do some quick math here. If you're favored by five points in someone else's building, that implies your favor by seven or eight on a neutral field. And if you lose the game by seven and your minus two turnovers, I'm just going to spoil it for you. That does not adjust anyone's power rating a touchdown. So that part's right. I just think the gap between the teams may be a little wonky. Next up, you'll also notice that Texas and Ohio State, we got a little situation there. Rob hit us up and said, oh, if only Ohio State and Texas could play each other to see who should be ranked higher. Well, I got good news for you, Rob. They did play last week in Texas one. So they are ranked higher. But these are not rankings. These are power ratings and Ohio State is still ahead of Texas in the power rating. And I'll tell you why. Because as of last hour, according to fan duel, if the two teams faced off on a neutral field, Ohio State would be a one and a half point favorite, right, Jesse? Yes. So this is just factually correct. Now, Texas may beat them by 30. It's just that we're not predicting how the game would go or predicting who would be favored. It's at this point that somebody either in the live chat or in the comments after the show will say, well, who cares who would be favored if the game has already been played? And to that person, I say, if you don't care, I wouldn't waste time watching this segment. Come back in 10 minutes. But it turns out a lot of people are curious about this sort of thing. All it is is a reference point. It's just a little tool to have in your back pocket. And mainly the way I use it is I have fun comparing this to what the public thinks. I'll give you a perfect example of that in just a second. In a few minutes, I'll talk about Oregon. Because there's mass discrepancy in what the public thinks versus what fan duel thinks. However, sometimes the model disagrees with fan duel. And right now, we've got massive deviation between what fan duel thinks about Notre Dame and what the model thinks about Notre Dame. So Notre Dame is all the way down at eight. I can't tell 100%. I need fan duel may have Notre Dame like one or two because there is a seven point difference between what we think about and well, excuse me, the model thinks about Notre Dame and what fan duel does. And I don't know what to say other than I don't think that's going anywhere. Because Notre Dame is going to play a lot of inferior competition and they're going to load up on them to where even if the model's right and everyone's too high on Notre Dame, you won't know it until the Miami game, maybe the Brigham Young game. So we don't have to wait a little while on that. And it's like, it's a classic fan duel model standoff. Hoops to monks. This hasn't seen several of those, but this is just the latest. Jesse, you know what else got thrown our way in the form of allegations, bias, SEC bias. It's back. It disappeared for one week. And now it's back. Kenneth said, wow, Josh, tell me you're not why you are. You're not biased towards the SEC LOL 13 SEC teams LOL again. Two laughs. There are several problems with this. The first of which is the model has no idea what an SEC team is. The second is who would you say it would be at or around 13th in the SEC going in the last week? I think it'd be safe to say Mississippi State would would have been power rated 13th or 14th or 15th in the SEC going in the last week. What they do, they went into Minnesota. They were right out of pick them, maybe a slight favorite and they steamrolled Minnesota. How's that team doing this week? That Mississippi State team that did that last week. You know what they are? They're three and a half point dogs to South Carolina. Point being, it's not crazy at all to think that a bunch of these SEC teams are viewed very similarly. And there's a log jam of them. Mississippi State's one. Auburn would be one. Florida would be one. South Carolina, I personally think Fandall and the models a little too high on, but in honor of JP Hovey, he's still alive. We've got South Carolina at 25. My only point there is get really specific. Don't say SEC. There's not an SEC team. They're just teams. They're they're they're collections and clusters of data. That's what they are. They're not they're not conference affiliates. Which ones are too high and who belongs above them? And you got to back that up. Like you got to back that up with your betting patterns. You don't just get to blindly say too many SEC teams in lieu of what? In lieu of hopes. Next up, this is the one I said I'd get to. Texas A&M and Oregon. Someone had a big problem. Rick said Texas A&M would not beat Oregon on a neutral field. Josh. First off, how is anyone speaking with any form of confidence about Oregon right now? Hard stop. New paragraph. Secondly, Rick. What did we have? We had a A&M one spot above Oregon. Yeah. We're we're implying. There's like a quarter points different between difference between the two. But Rick saying that's agree. Just Rick saying no, man, there'd be a big gap between Oregon and A&M. They keep forgetting Jesse. We got Fandall on speed dial. So we hit him up. A&M versus Oregon neutral field today. Fandall, Mike, what would the line be? Oregon minus one. So basically the only thing that Fandall would change here is that basically flip Oregon and A&M. But they don't think there's any gap between them either. And then if the game happened, you could bet it however you want. Some people noticed that there was a no mission this week. Some people noticed that the number 25 team from last week disappeared. And that would be the Nebraska coin huskers. And Nebraska's run in the J people is being commemorated much the same way as Aaron Rodgers taking the field on 9/11 only for injury issues to strike moments later. I checked. Nebraska's number 26 Michigan's number 27, which is very ironic considering the show I'm about to do with former distinguished alumni from each school tomorrow morning. But they haven't fallen. They haven't fallen. It's just some teams increase their power rating a little bit. Anyway, look, I got a hard disagreement with the JP poll this week. But ultimately, Fandall, aside from the Notre Dame exception, has confirmed that mostly this is kind of how it would play out if they had two favorite teams on a neutral field tomorrow. Jesse, let me ask you something. You like tailgates? You do. Do you own a ram? Why? Why not? What does that look at that thing? Okay, we'll work on it because that's the real tailgate MVP. We are on Tuesday about 96 hours from another weekend of college football descending upon us, falling in our lap, if you will. A lot of you are blessed enough to be headed to tailgate scenes. And you know what it's like when someone pulls in with the proper mode of transportation in this case being a ram backed by the longest coverage in the game, by the way, 10 years, 100,000 mile powertrain warranty, Jesse, in case you were curious. But also it's the most dependable full-size truck in America and this is actually great. I didn't come up with this on my own, it's too good. The truck that works hard during the week and powers your weekends, Jesse, how could you possibly say no? You can't. You can't. We appreciate Ram for being on board with us. I think overreaction is a fun thing, but it's also something that can get us in trouble. So we try not to overreact early in the year, but a lot of you do. What are the biggest overreactions in college football through two weeks? I took some submissions earlier today from you guys and I gotta say I agree with some of these and I don't agree with some of these. First when Dylan says it's an overreaction for people to say Ohio State isn't an elite team. I agree. I still think Ohio State's really good. J.P. Pol still has Empower rated number one. I think Ohio State's a really good team. Of course, in passing the other day, I suggested maybe Ohio State's still the best team in the country and everyone latched onto it and they miscontextualized it or maybe they didn't. I just think it's a really, really good team and I don't think it's hit it ceiling yet because it's week three. I hope they haven't hit their ceiling yet, but yeah, I don't know how many people understand how tough it was to go into Texas and grab a 23 to three lead. I don't care how you did it. Now the flip side of that is they gave up the lead. Which Texas took the lead? Yes, that's true. The other guys allowed to try. The other team's really good. But yeah, if you don't think Ohio State's going to be in the mix here, I don't know what to tell you. I do think a lot of people out there are rooting for Ohio State's schedule to cumulatively swallow them up so they don't make the playoffs. And I understand that fully. Next up, this one I waited a little while to talk about, but this could have been a thousand different people say in this. Julius said one of the big overreactions is that Oregon is this year's Penn State or Clemson. I think we'll look back on these first two weeks and realize Boise and Oklahoma State were much better than most people thought. It is a very real possibility. Boise could be in the playoffs and hey Jesse, maybe Oklahoma State will be in the playoffs. We don't know. We have no idea how good that team is. Lost to Tulsa in week one. And after that, ever since then they're undefeated, ever since then they're 1 to 0 and they've beaten a top five team in the process or a top 10 team. I want to believe this. I want to believe it's an overreaction. How it, you know what I'm not going to say that in my, it was going to be about monster energy though. But anyway, how, um, how confusing a time is this right now? Because we're just off a year where we believed in several teams. You believed maybe in Clemson. Maybe you believed in Penn State. Maybe you believed in LSU and they all let you down. And then that led to people the entire spring and summer, known by some as the offseason asking each other, well, who's this year's Clemson, who's this year's Penn State and there you go. Organes up being the first top 10 team to vastly underachieve. So there they are, stamp them on the forehead. They're the new Penn State. Well, they're probably not, but we don't know. I do think it's an overreaction right now. But I will be watching closely. What is it? It's, uh, two weeks, it, they're two weeks away from that USC. I thought it was three weeks away. Well, I just got a little nervous, you know, because that's a top 10 J people team at USC. That's the number nine team in the country. I can't believe that Dan Lanning is going to let this thing go off the rails. I cannot believe that until further notice, I do not believe that. You know what? I don't do Jesse. I don't take UCLA or Nebraska or Illinois or Northwestern. None of those games are gimme's. If you can't go take care of Oklahoma State, if you get pushed up against the boards at home against Boise, all these games are in play except for Portland State. All these games are in play. As for now, it is an overreaction, though. Next up, who boy, Digan said it's an overreaction that Texas tech is no longer the top dog in the big 12. To me, you have to classify this two different kinds of ways. You could still look at Texas tech and say they're the slight favorite to win the big 12 while also believing they're no longer the top dog. When I think top dog, I think definitive, whatever, like overwhelming favorite. They're not that anymore. The odds market has tightened considerably, Brigham Young's plus $450, Utah's plus $550, Texas tech plays Houston this Friday night in Lubbock. You heard me right this Friday night. The big 12, it's kind of wide open right now at the top at least. But I do still think Texas tech is the favorite. The top dog, like them in the pack, that stuff, I don't view it that way anymore. It's conditionally an overreaction, I think. What about Mississippi State? My team, after all, Mississippi State, yeah. Connor said it's an overreaction that Mississippi State's a top 25 team because he says, quote, that schedule will rear its head very soon. What does that mean? Does it mean that because they play a tough schedule and they'll lose some games, they're not a top 25 team? Connor, are you saying if they had Virginia's schedule, they would be a top 25 team? I don't agree with that line of thinking. I'll ask you this, Connor, are there 25 teams out there you would feel comfortable betting your life savings on as they play Mississippi State? I see you shaking your head no. I don't really. I picture you shaking your head no. Mississippi State is pretty good, man. They're pretty good. So I don't think it's an overreaction at all. Top 10? Maybe that's an overreaction. Top 25 is not an overreaction. And lastly, and this concerns me a little bit, because our buddies, our buddies, college football nerds, they hit us up, they said, it's an overreaction that, quote, Tennessee is making some noise as a top 10 team. Their opinion? Georgia Tech is likely a bad football team. They scored 13 on Colorado and gave up the same number of sacks and tackles for a loss or 127 than tackles or a sacks allowed. I think Tennessee may be worse than last year. That's what they said. There's this thing happening right now. Everybody's down on Tennessee, but me. Their own fans. Jesse, it's one of those really, really weird situations where I have found myself having to talk my Tennessee friends up. And as, as a native now, as a resident, rather of this state, I feel it's my duty to talk to people at the gym and say, uh, buddy, they're two and oh, maybe they're all right. Maybe they can, they could be pretty good. They play Texas next week. I know that. What a fun game that would be to be at, Jesse. You imagine Texas and Neal and stadium didn't paint manning play there. I think he did. Yeah, there's some history there. Oh, man, you're lucky if you're going to that game. I don't, well, it may be an overreaction to put him top 10. I'm still in wait and see mode about Tennessee. Maybe I'm the only one. Maybe everyone else has sold him down the river seven and five, eight and four at best. I don't know. I saw JP. Hope you just get a shout out in the live chat though. I do know that. Let's get back to these games, speaking of South Carolina. You know everything you need to know about how much you love this sport. By how excited you are about this next game, Mississippi State at South Carolina. The games presented by Fandall. It's Saturday. It's 415 Eastern time on SEC network Williams, Bryce Stadium. I'm receiving word. Yes. Williams, Bryce Stadium is sold out, 93, maybe 94 at kickoff. Oh, it's going to be gross and disgusting and beautiful. Not to be hyperbolic, but Camario Taylor is a superhero at this point in my mind. And not to be hyperbolic, but Shane Beamer's reputation is basically on the line Saturday. Again, not to delve into the world of hyperbally, but this is a very important game. It's a very important game because everybody now is seeing highlights at least of Camario Taylor. That dude is one of the best quarterbacks in the country through two weeks. That's the fact whether he will be the rest of the season, that's what people are trying to figure out. And they're trying to figure out whether this is just fools, gold, you know, there's this shiny new object every year. Normally it's a quarterback who pads his stats against inferior competition. And if you're a skeptic of Camario Taylor, I probably can't sell you just on the fact that he ran it up against Minnesota because you probably don't think much of Minnesota. And then there are those of us who watch the game. And there are losses and then there are splatterings and what Mississippi State did to Minnesota falls very much into the latter category. And so far, Camario Taylor is a 68% completion guy. 290 through the air per game, 72 on the ground per game, 8 total touchdowns, no picks. He is the real deal, not going to be perfect, but you're not seeing through him. He is the real deal. Conversely, Shane Beamer in his past 11 games against P4 competition is 2 and 9. So some stuff has to change here. If the stuff doesn't change for South Carolina, and similarly, the stuff continues from Mississippi State, then the wrong team's favorite in this game, because the line is South Carolina minus 3 and a half. So what's going to happen? Well, are you surprised by what Mississippi State looks like offensively? Maybe you shouldn't be. If you track Jeff LeBees career at every stop, they've just gotten better and better and better. And that RPO, that motion, the misdirection, the elements they have with Camario Taylor, not just him. They're extremely fast at wide receiver, nothing about last week was a fluke. And when you mix all those elements in, I was listening to Beamer talk about it this week. He was trying to convince everyone who is still a skeptic. There's nothing flukeish about them and about these offensive numbers they've put up so far. I think they're going to be a handful to deal with Saturday. And you're about to find out a lot on the other side about the South Carolina offense, because they lead the country. Is this a paper popper? I think maybe paper popper for South Carolina. They lead the country and cat buster runs right now. Those are runs of 40 plus yards. They lead the country. Will that continue? There is the crowbar theory here. If your numbers have been propped up by these huge chunk runs against inferior teams, and then you play a worthwhile opponent and the chunk runs aren't there. There's your stat profile collapse. That's the crowbar theory. If that's there, then great. And what you did against Towson and Kent State, if that's scales against Mississippi State, you're good. You're good. You're off to the races. You'll maintain offensive balance and play calling. You'll put the Nora Sellers on the right spot. You'll get enough out of your wide receivers and you'll win the game. wide receivers a big question mark here. South Carolina fans are talking about it a lot. Drops. Inability to block on the perimeter. I was reading a lot from JC Sherbert, old school for into the program about that very thing today. If you don't have standard drive success here, it's going to bog down. It's going to bog down. And Mississippi State has the potential to make you a little one dimensional here. And make the Nora Sellers need to win the game throwing the ball. I actually think it's kind of still settling into that Kindle Browse offense. I think the game's going to come down to that. It's going to come down to him. And not just him, everyone's got to step up those wide receivers. That offensive line. I got to step up. It's going to come down to him throwing the ball. You're going to learn a ton here because maybe there's just too much too quick for Camario Taylor. Maybe it's an obvious do down spots. They're second road game in two weeks. Maybe it's too much too soon. Maybe there's a little comeback to Earth moment for Mississippi State. I think South Carolina has to get this game. You got their schedule, Bradley, that you can throw up again for me. If they don't get this game and they start two and one, no one, they got to go to Bama next week. They've still got a trip to Florida and Oklahoma. They got Tennessee coming in along with A&M. They've still got Georgia. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand the trajectory that the season could take pretty quick. So let's take a look at what the model thinks. Fandall, as of right now, has South Carolina as a three and a half point favorite. The model thinks that's too many points. The model has South Carolina minus one. I got to tell you. I think Camario Taylor and his overall skill set plus the speed they have at receiver and the lack of trust that I have right now for South Carolina at that same position over comes one of the venues that I think is the most underrated in college football. So it's going to be an extremely charged atmosphere. But something tells me Mississippi State is going to go in there and overcome it. So I'm going to take the Bulldogs to win the game outright. Yet again, I think the wrong team's favorite. I think Mississippi State wins the game outright. Design contest is over. It's finished, Jesse. It's done. We have winners. The don't tread on Saturday shirt with with chuggy masquerading as George Washington crossing a river. We don't know which river. We think it's the Cumberland River. It is not the Delaware. Nevertheless, that is our winner. And a lot of money is going to the designer of that T shirt and that T shirt is going in the store. The doggo T shirt, the paid state dog shirt. We've ever had in the store. That comes in second place because it's college football shirt, brilliant in its simplicity. Finish is third. Those shirts now available at paidstatematerial.com, the designers of those three shirts. Be on the lookout. Alex will be in touch with you and your monies will be on their way. Huge, huge tip of the cap. It was really fun. We had, I just had low expectations and shame on me because we got a lot of good designs and those top five, anyone I'm good a one and I would have been fine with it. Appreciate you guys. We'll probably do that again in the future. The NFL report hosted by me, Andrew Susamliano. We're tapping the biggest news stories, giving you expert analysis, fantasy previews, game picks and more. Want to hear from the league's top stars out of the biggest matchups? That's a really good football team. Join me at an all-star cast of analysts for everything you need to know from around the league. Listen to the NFL report podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey everyone, I'm Mike M and I'm Trevor Sikama and together we host the NFL Fantasy Football Show. Fantasy season is upon us. Because if you aren't locked in with us on the NFL Fantasy Football Show, you're already playing from behind. Every episode, we're going to dive into the biggest fantasy headlines. You know, we're talking sleepers, breakout stars and the guys you cannot afford to bench. From rookies on the rise to long-time stars still at it, we cover it all. Whether you're a first-time player or a grizzled vet chasing another championship, we give you the advantage and the confidence you need to make every move count. Weekly analysis, hot takes and unique insider knowledge all in one place. Listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Show on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Last year, we had Mike McDonald, Sam Darno on the field after the game, but that was last year. If you're a football sickle like me, NFL Daily is your kind of show. Matthew Stafford coming off his MVP seat on a dazzling darts from Matthew Stafford. Big-time trades that shake up the NFL, and of course those Seahawks trying to run it back and win another Lombardi trope, the Seahawks win Super Bowl 60, they are bringing Lombardi back to the Northwest. Listen to NFL Daily on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Have you ever watched a game and wondered what really made the difference beyond the final score? That's exactly why we created NFL Pro. Every week we use exclusive next-gen stats insights and NFL content to break down the biggest stories, matchups and moments from around the league. We go beyond the box score to uncover the numbers, the tendencies and details that help explain what actually happened on the field. And don't worry, this isn't just a show for stats experts, we use advanced analytics to help tell the story behind the game, turning the numbers into insights that every fan can understand and enjoy. Listen to NFL Pro on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you want. You get your pine, yes. We move it on Friday night, Jesse. There is a massive game Friday night. I don't know how the rest of the Friday slate looks this year. Would you say this is the Friday game of the year, Jesse? I mean, we got to see how it works out. Pit Virginia Tech could be good in a few weeks. But man, quick trip is presenting this game. Quick trip rarely presents a Friday night game. But quick trip will circle this one and say, yeah, yeah, we'll take Houston, Texas Tech. This is the first ranked meeting between these teams since 1989. It's the year Taylor Swift was born. That's the last it is. That's the last time that these teams were ranked. That would have been Southwest Conference. That was a beautiful time in American history. They each played Oregon State already. How insane is it? That these teams have a common opponent already and it's Oregon State. But that's the reality. And you know what we did? We promptly bet Oregon State against both of them and we are two and no in those bets. Because Oregon State is very underrated and they got a transfer quarterback from Mercer. That is very good. We'll talk more about him in December. But in the meantime, Houston beat him by 13 and they were minus two turnovers. Texas Tech beat him by 11 that turnover margin was even that game was in Corvallis. Probably the first and last time Joey McGuire will spend the night in Corvallis, Oregon. So both teams want to run it. Both teams believe they will be able to run it. They did not face a legitimate ground attack against Oregon State. So we haven't really seen either of them tested on the ground. Texas Tech had 3.3 yards per carry against Oregon State. Houston had 5.6 yards per carry against Oregon State. But most of the stat sheet, frankly, makes you lean Houston. If you just go by this one common opponent. Now what we also know at the quarterback position is Connor Wigman gives you a lot more on the ground than Will Hammond. And that's really where the secret to this game lies. Will Hammond, because Brennan Soresby's not there is back from injury. He is the starting quarterback at Texas Tech in there. There's a lot of uncertainty and there are a lot of folks questioning him. And it sounds like I'm narrating the video that they'll probably play going into this game. But it's true. A lot of people are questioning him right now. There is a big quarterback experience edge in this game. Probably a skill edge too at quarterback on the side of Houston. And yet Houston is a 7 1/2 point dog. Connor Wigman, plus a Murray Thomas at wide receiver, love that combo. Texas Tech last year was elite at getting after the quarterback. And it's a big test here because right now it's a small sample size. It's just a couple of games, but they are number 63 and have a great in college football right now. And if that stat holds Friday night, Houston has an excellent shot to come in there and pull it out right up set because Houston can get pressure on their side. And Will Hammond has not faced this kind of stage. And he is not the mobile threat at all that Connor Wigman is. We don't know how he'll respond to a pressure moment like this. We have no idea. Now I'll tell you who does give you mobility. Tommy Castellanos gives you mobility. I don't know how much they plan to use him in this game. But yes, he is on the Texas Tech roster. They've just felt weird so far. I've watched both Texas Tech games. They've just, it's felt a little weird. Now Auburn has to and I picked him to beat Florida. So that doesn't mean anything. But Houston feels primed. There are a lot of reputable people that I guarantee you will end up picking Houston to win this game out. Right. How does Texas Tech handle quarterback? That's the name of this game. So Fandals got Texas Tech minus seven and a half right now. Oh, we've got Texas Tech minus nine in the model. And I'll just tell you that's a roster talent edge. That's most of what's baked into this right now. I don't have a strong feel on this. But I feel like there's a decent shot that Houston wins this game out. Right. So I'm going to, I'm going to do the fence ride thing on this one. I'm going to mainly be a spectator for it. I'll take Texas Tech to win a very close game, a one possession game. I'll take Houston to cover. Don't think we'll have any further action on that one. But that's Friday night, man. That's a fun Friday night game at Fandals right now. You can go bet that game if you want to or if you don't bet and you're just curious what the numbers are, you can go find them on Fandal. But you know what else you can do for free at Fandal. You can play our pick them contest. Two weeks in a row now, ungodly amounts of money have been handed out. So this past weekend, 523 of you went 10 for 10 against the spread. And each of you, all 523 of you took home over $900 a piece in bonus bets. This is a real thing that's happening. It's free to play. So what's happening is me, we'll come up and take a little one. We put in our picks and whichever of you does better than us, you are taking home a share of $500,000 in prizes every week, not for the season, every week. So like legitimately, 523 people went 10 for 10 last week on their picks. And every one of them got over $900 in bonus bets, like they woke up. There were $900 more dollars in their account than there was when they went to bed. I have no idea how you don't do this. It's free. You're already there. If you already have an account, you'd be stupid not to do it. It's free. Go over 10. You don't lose a dime. Go 10 for 10. You make a lot of money. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas, Starkicino or 18 plus and present in DC. First on my real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non withdrawal bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt, restrictions apply, see terms at sportsbook.fandual.com gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit fandual.com/rg. Call 1-888-7897-777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut. Or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 hope and why or text hope and why in New York. Speaking of games that we'll be on to close out the show here. Romanool Express shugs into the studio. We are already on two games. Clemson minus three and a half desperation. Purdue plus 15 and a half came close to winning outright last week, but covered. We're already on those two. You know who I'm adding, Jesse Jeff Lebian, Mississippi State plus three and a half added as a best bet. I think they'll win the game outright. Clemson, Purdue, Mississippi State, several more games will be added throughout the week, culminating with Friday night lines. You've got to be following on Instagram at Josh Pate CFB. That's where Friday night lines airs. It doesn't get posted all over the place. So you got to be following. It's half time. I guess we'll do half time with Texas Tech Friday night. Yeah. I think I went with like 12 games last week, 11 or 12. But we won. That's all that matters. Appreciate you guys. We will do the Thursday show at six o'clock central. Make sure you like the video. The last thing right here before we end, the last thing I want you to do. Jesse's been giving me double thumbs up in the studio for the better part of an hour. And I thought he was just trying to encourage me. He couldn't care less about me. He just wants you to like the video, which ultimately means he does care about me. So please like the video, subscribe to the channel. So many of you have. Thank you. Please bear with me as I beg others to do the same for director Bradley, producer Jesse. I'm Josh Pate. We'll be back Thursday night until they take care and God bless. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Arcasino or 18 plus and present in DC first on my real money wager only $5 first deposit required bonus issue does non withdrawal bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem. Call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual dot com slash RG call 1 888 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit and the gambling help dot org in Maryland hope is here visit gambling help line m a dot org or call 803 to 750 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1 877 8 hope and why or text hope and why in New York.