1127: Week 2 Sleepers

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If you want to turn them into an analysis, tracker, deck outline, or workflow, you can keep shaping. You stay in control, reviewing the work, and choosing the final result. Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode, available on Plus and Pro plans. This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, JJ Zacharysa. What's up, everyone? It's JJ Zacharysa, and in this episode, 1127 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, thanks for tuning in. For anyone who's new to the podcast, first off, welcome. But second, on this sleeper show every week, I do a quick recap at the top of the show on how things went down the previous week. It's like 30 seconds long, but it's a way to hold myself accountable and to be transparent with how my picks went the previous week. As I've said, I won't hit on a ton of these sleepers. They're sleepers for a reason. But I do think it's helpful to have a quick rundown of what just happened before we look forward. Week one's always a tough one because we know so little about usage. But there were some good picks in there. Jalen Coker was the best shout of all of them. He scored almost 34 PPR points. Matthew Golden had a good day. Tyler Shuck fortunately came through. Devon Vele, Dontavian Wicks, they were good dart throws. And Deebo Samuel, he scored 18 points. Jawan Johnson, found the end zone and he scored over 14 points too. But yeah, like most week ones, there were some mega misses. Baker Mayfield and Kenneth Gainwell, they were both pretty bad. Chris Rodriguez didn't see the workload that was possible in that matchup against the Browns. Keaton Mitchell stunk. Terrence Ferguson dropped a big old goose egg. Trey Tucker, Tajay Spears, they weren't very good either. I'm not totally upset with that week one performance, but it'll hopefully go down as one of the worst ones of the season. We're on to week two. Before getting to the sleepers this week though, did you guys know that we send content via the Late Round newsletter? It's true and it's free. You can get the 15 transactions column directly to your inbox every Tuesday morning. We'll have some matchup stuff for you from Brandon Gadula and there's a wrap-up email that Kitchen puts together every single week directly to your email inbox and it's all for free. Learn more and subscribe to that newsletter by heading to lateround.com. We'll kick things off as we always do with PlayRound.com. We'll see you next time. I didn't necessarily expect just 11 standard points. You might look at this Cleveland matchup and you want to stay away because there won't be enough passing volume. But just remember, if you're searching for garbage time at quarterback, it usually takes a garbage performance to create that garbage time. If the Bucs are ahead in the game, there's a good chance that Baker has something to do with it. Tampa Bay has a 25-point total. We saw what Trevor Lawrence did to this defense last week. I think Baker is a firm QB too. Shifting to running back, Jordan Mason is now on IR. That makes Aaron Jones a very obvious play from this group. Jones had an okay enough 43% snap share in week one. He handled 39% of Minnesota's rushes. That was the 33rd ranked share among all running backs in week one. His route share was a little bit weak at just 23%. That's definitely a concern. The Vikings just didn't use their running backs that much as receivers this past week. Jordan Mason had just a 16% route share. Only Jacksonville had fewer running back routes in week one. I can't imagine it's going to be that low this week. And with Mason out, Jones definitely is going to get more run as a receiver. Even with the lack of receiving work last week, the two combined for about 21 expected PPR points. And they get the Bears this week. Chicago is great offensively. That's going to force the Vikings to have to keep pace. But their defense is not that strong. Chuba Hubbard had a very usable performance against the Bears last week. So Aaron Jones is a really solid, I like Ja'Cory Kroski-Merritt this week against the Cowboys, but he's rostered in too many leagues to get a shout on today's show. So let's go with the next best thing in Washington. That's Rashad White. White only saw 22% of the team's rushes in week one, but he played 40% of their offensive snaps. Part of that was because Washington trailed on 81% of their offensive plays, which was a fringe top 10 number last week. But we kind of know what Washington is trying to do with their backfield and how they divvy it up. White's more of a defensive player. The pass catcher, Bill, is more of the early down runner. We saw that in week one. White played 93% of their third down snaps. And then he played just 24% of their early down ones. This is really just a matchup thing from the perspective that Dallas' defense still didn't look all that good in week one. Devin Singletary, he had some success through the air too. You match that up with the fact that Washington could trail in this game as road underdogs. I don't love Rashad White, but there aren't many true sleeper running backs this early on in the season. Matthew Golden is still under that 80% rostered mark. And something tells me that this could be the last week where that's the case. Golden had the second highest expected fantasy point total last week at wide receiver, according to Late Rounds Formula. I talked all about this on the 15 Transactions episode. We're talking 87% route share, a 30% target share, and multiple end zone targets. The Packers have an implied team total of nearly 25 points this week against the Jets. And it's not just the Jets. It's not a defense that I'm overly worried about in general. My weekly and rest of season rankings are far more bullish on Matthew Golden than what the market's saying. So it makes sense to call him out today. And I'll go back to Jalen Coker too, as long as he's healthy. As I said on the 10 Trends episode, he's been out targeting Tedaro McMillan over the last seven games. And while I don't think this game against Atlanta is going to shoot out the same way that last week's game did against Chicago, it's not a bad matchup. The Falcons ran man defense at the sixth high end of the season. And just like I said last week with the Bears matchup, Coker can cook against man. We also just saw the Falcons give up a 10-yard A-dot to Aaron Rodgers. So a big play is definitely possible for Jalen Coker. Xavier Worthy had an 85% route share and a 24% target share against the Broncos. It equated to about 10 expected points. That's not fantastic, but we know Denver's probably going to be a tough passing matchup this year. The Broncos also run a lot of money out of man. They ranked 7th in Week 1 in percentage of plays out of man. This week, Kansas City gets Indianapolis, who ranked top 10 in man rate last year, and they were by far the number one team in man usage in Week 1. Now obviously there's a one-week sample size problem here, and there's matchup stuff attached to it. But it's something to note, because Xavier Worthy, he's typically seen an uptick in yards per route run against man versus zone. Rasheed Rice, completely the opposite direction. Since Worthy and Coker entered the league, he's seen a 1.36 yards per route run rate against man and a 1.26 against zone, so slightly better against man. Rasheed Rice's splits are 1.03 against man and 3.05 against zone. So I think this could be a similar game plan as it was last week for Kansas City, which would mean a little bit more Xavier Worthy than we'll typically see. I'm going back to Debo Samuel this week, especially with Dejan Stripling's injury. Samuel should see a healthy number of routes, and even in a game where the 49ers didn't have to go heavy with the pass last week, he's still finished with over 13 expected fantasy points. Now he's up against a very beatable Dolphins team, he's not a bad play at all. You could look at Hunter Henry in this tier, given A.J. Brown's injury. I said it earlier this week, but I think there's a chance that we see the Patriots go with a heavier approach offensively, and Henry had an okay enough 62% route share in week one. The Steelers actually ran every defensive play last week out of zone, largely because of the fact that of the matchup, but even if that drops significantly, they're probably going to be a heavy zone team under new defensive coordinator Patrick Graham. With Drake May under center over the last couple of years, Hunter Henry's yards per route run against zone is 1.8. Against Mann, it's 1.07. So he's an interesting play. And then another shout is with Jake Ferguson, who didn't do a whole lot in week one. He did run a route though on 75% of Dallas's dropbacks, and he gets the commanders this week. Over the last season plus, no team allows more PPR points per target to tight ends than Washington does. So if he's out there running routes, there's a chance he's also scoring points. Moving on to this next tier, we're looking at guys rostered in 20 to 50% of Yahoo leagues. At quarterback, I don't love the matchup after what they did to Matthew Stafford in week one. But let's be real, Malik Willis is probably going to be frequently featured on this episode every week. The Dolphins defense is not very good. It's going to force Miami to throw more than they probably want. And that creates. That creates scrambling opportunities for Malik Willis. In week one against an inferior defense in the 49ers, Malik Willis was pressured at the sixth highest rate in the league. Matthew Stafford against the 49ers was pressured at the fifth highest rate. Stafford's a statue though. He's not going to run. Willis finished the day with five scrambles. That was tied for third most in the league. This is going to be the thesis for a lot of these matchups. Willis has the legs to give us production. And then anything he can do as a thrower, is kind of the cherry on top. It's what we used to do with Justin Fields. It makes Willis viable in fantasy football. Moving on to running back, how about Woody Marks? I'll say it again. Running back is usually tough for this sleepers episode because there are only so many to reasonably choose from. But despite David Montgomery's performance in week one, they were actually encouraging peripherals for Woody Marks. Marks only played one fewer snap than David Montgomery did. They also saw a near identity. It was an identical early down and third down snap share. Montgomery's the goal line guy though. And Mark saw a couple more routes. But it was more split than people probably realized given one dude scored 29 PPR points. The other just scored five. If that kind of split continues, we're going to see both these running backs from a production standpoint, meet a little bit more in the middle. We're not going to see quite the difference that we saw last week. And again, this is a game where we could just see more scoring in general. Bucky Irving, he had a pretty good outing last week against the same defense too. This could be another week for Kalon Black. Whether the usage in week one was due to Christian McCaffrey having cramps or not, the 49ers are 13 and a half point favorites against the Dolphins. A positive game script could easily yield more work for Black. And I'd almost expect that to happen unless San Francisco just has some jet lag coming back from Australia. There are definitely worse running back plays out there than Black this week. Emmett Johnson's another one to keep an eye on. If any of you remember, I was a big, big fan of Emmett Johnson during the draft process. He had a true three down skill set. In week one, he played 36% of Kansas City's offensive snaps and he saw a 23% rush share. He even saw a couple of targets on a 22% route share. Now to be fair, that rush share was closer to just 13% before a final garbage time drive. But we at least know that garbage time stuff is possible for him. And he's still mixed in on about 26% of their early runs. Before that garbage time hit. The Chiefs are also six and a half point favorites. This is like the diet version of the Kalon Black recommendation. I only have one wide receiver in this tier and it's Khalil Shakir. You have to love this Bills-Lions game on Thursday night with a 54 and a half point total. Hopefully, fingers crossed, it's going to be fireworks. We want to get exposure to potentially high scoring games and Shakir is one way of doing so. He was third on the team in route share in week one only behind DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid. And he walked away with a 21% target share. So getting that kind of usage in this kind of game can go a long way. And then at tight end, I'm going to go back to Michael Mayer this week. He didn't have a monster game or anything last week, but among all tight ends in week one, he was 10th in route share and fourth in target share. The usage was there. This week, the Raiders get the Chargers and LA was just blasted by Trey McBride. And they may force more of a passing script against the Raiders as six and a half point favorites. It points to Mayer being a decent streamer as long as Brock Bowers is out. The final tier looks at players rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo leagues. So we're definitely digging deep here. First up, we have a quarterback streamer in Carson Wentz, assuming Kyler Murray doesn't play. The Bears can push things offensively, as we know. That should keep the Vikings passing in this game, especially with Jordan Mason sidelined. Wentz finished week one with a top five fantasy points per drop back rate. And we just watched Bryce Young finish seventh in that statistic in week one against this exact same defense. There are definitely worse game environments than the one that Carson Wentz is about to be in from a fantasy perspective. Now, deep plays at running back are not easy to find. So when I say these names, don't do anything irrational. Raheem Sanders is the first one I'm going to call out. With Dylan Sampson out, Sanders is the RB2 in the Browns backfield. He also played 75% of their third downs against the Jags. And he ran just one fewer route than Quinshaw Judkins. Sanders had a snap share in the fourth quarter of 41%. They're once again big underdogs this week. If that game script hits, maybe Sanders gets some of that garbage time production. Now, a more reasonable pull here is Devin Singletary. There's a chance that we see a different backfield deployment in week two against the Rams because number one, there's a chance they have a different game script. But number two, Cam Scadaboo has a game under his belt post-injury now. But Singletary played more third down snaps than Scadaboo did last week. He ran 18 routes to Scadaboo's nine. I do think there's at least some chance that Singletary ends up as their negative game script back. And that's all while still having some usability on early downs because Tyrone Tracy had ball security issues. So I think Devin Singletary might be okay enough in PPR formats. The last running back to shout out here is Chris Brooks. Now, I don't think we got a very good look at these Packers running backs in week one, but Brooks did play more offensive snaps than Marshawn Lloyd did. And he saw more on early downs. Granted, he was the guy who saw the field when the Packers were trailing. And I don't think that happens in this game against the Jets, at least from a probability standpoint. But you never know how they might split this backfield this week. And if the Packers do indeed get a lead and if they hold onto it, both backs this week could see enough work to be viable. So I'll give Brooks a little shout here too. We'll shift over to wide receiver. Let's talk about Caleb Douglas. Like I said earlier with Malik Willis, you've got a probable pass-heavy script for Miami this week. And Douglas not only looked better than Malik Washington in week one, his peripherals in general were just strong. We're talking a 26% target share, an 84% route share, and a 14-yard average at the target. He's not a bad option in this spot. Devon Vele gets the Ravens this week, it's a matchup I don't like nearly as much as the one last week. But he was moved all over the field in week one. He had a 47-53 split inside to out. And his target share set at 17% with an 86% route share. The Saints are almost definitely not going to run as many plays as they did last week, but they could definitely find themselves in a negative game script. That's going to force more passing. They run at a fast pace too. So Vele should see some volume. Now I'm scared for the Titans offense against Philadelphia this week. And I do think that we may not see a ton of passing volume for the Eagles offense. But Tennessee entered this season with a bottom-tiered secondary. And they were top half of the league in perimeter points allowed last week to wide receivers. And that was the Jets. In 2025, they gave up the third most perimeter wide receiver points. Now, of course, there's a different coaching staff, but it's just something to remember. Dontavian Wicks had strong enough peripherals in week one for you to consider him here in week two. He had a 79% route share, an 18% target share, and he was lined up on the outside. So I think he's fine against this Titans team as a sleeper. Omar Cooper's injured. He's expected to miss some time. That should open things up for Adonai Mitchell. And it did in week one. Mitchell ran around on 81% of the Jets dropbacks, the same number as Garrett Wilson. He just saw a 13% target share, but he was using this typical down the field role. He had nearly a 20-yard A dot. Carson Wentz completed his only 20-plus air yard throw last week against his Packers defense. He was top 15 in completion rate on 10-plus air yard throws. So I think there's a chance that we see that connection with Adonai Mitchell here in week two. I don't think Zay Flowers is going to go this week and Jacoby Lane is out too. I'm intrigued to see what Elijah Surratt might be able to do. But I think the safe option, it's Rashad Bateman. Bateman finished first in week one by a wide margin in route share. He was at 90%, though he only recorded one target. He was the cardio king. But it's a pretty advantageous matchup against the Saints and Baltimore will definitely deploy him as their top wide out. So it makes sense to call him out as a sleeper. Ladd McConkie might not go this week and if he doesn't, I think Trey Harris should at least be on your radar. Last week in the fourth quarter when Ladd McConkie was out, Harris saw a route share of 100%. He ran more routes than Quentin Johnson did. We know Mike McDaniel doesn't deploy 11 personnel all that often and with the wide receiver, room looking like it does, that could mean that we see a lot more QJ and Trey Harris in this offense. And against the Raiders, that's kind of interesting for Trey Harris. Lastly, at wide receiver, let's just keep it short, Demarcus Robinson. He gets a Miami secondary that's really not good on paper, and he ran the most routes for the 49ers last week after Dajon Stribling went out. The 49ers have a 29-point implied team total. Robinson has a shot to score some points. At tight end, look, I don't know when we'll see more Kenyon Sadiq usage, but I think we're going to get more as the season goes on. He's a first round pick, he has elite athleticism, and they were already scheming up some plays for him in week one. I'd expect that 46% route share to be higher as soon as this week, especially if and when the Jets trail in this game. Keep in mind, Sadiq saw a target on 25% of his routes run. It's a beatable Packers defense, so if you really want a true dart throw, Sadiq makes sense. A safer option would be Pat Friermuth. According to our pass rate over expected numbers, Pittsburgh had the highest mark in week one. They pushed the ball down the field way more than they did last year. And Friermuth came through with a strong performance on the 11th best route share among tight ends last week. Pittsburgh could face more of a negative game script this week because they get New England. So based on usage and based on volume, Friermuth makes some sense. As for defensive streamers, I love the Bucks against the Browns like I said in Transaction Show. There's the 49ers against the Dolphins, the Packers against the Jets, and then the Chiefs against the Colts. All very, very good options. Daniel Jones faced the highest pressure rate last week, and the Chiefs forced a lot of pressure against Bo Nix. That's why they make sense. That's going to do it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you haven't subscribed to the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast, make sure you are registering for it. Pretty much anywhere podcasts can be found. And don't forget to follow me on Thanks for listening everyone. I'll be back in your ears tomorrow with the weekly mailbag show. We'll be right back. Guaranteed human.