Week 10 Upset Alerts + CFP Chaos Scenarios & Commissioner’s Poll

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Just realize how blessed we are on the precipice of a weekend they'll be talking about for a thousand years. And you're going to be able to say, you were there. Not in a thousand years, of course, because you'll be dead. Otherwise, that would be a record. Even by biblical terms, that would be a record. We're jam-packed. We're high atop an optimistic downtown Nashville, Tennessee. A lot of folks got a reason to believe going into this weekend. We got some chaos that we all know is going to take place. Let's be mature. Let's be professional. Let's be none of those things. This is college football. It's time to have fun and completely freak out over 18 to 22-year-old kids. I've got upset alerts. A lot of them. Especially in a week like this where we got multiple prime games. There's some games floating under the radar. Who knows what happens when Bob Chesney goes to Minneapolis? Whomst amongst us knows why Northwestern's even favored to begin with against Iowa. We're going to talk about all that, though. I have got a brand new commissioner's poll which we have decided to try and reflect the college football playoff rankings with. And that hasn't been controversial at all today. All that and then some. We are jam-packed again. We are right next to a legendary weekend. Just enjoy this. Just enjoy these last few moments before everything completely breaks loose. They're watching us in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Panama City Beach, Florida. Beach, Florida is tuned in. Denton, Texas. Seattle, Washington. We are very close to 600,000 subscribers. And every time I ask on the show, we get an influx of subscribers. Even though subscribers itself is a tough word for me to say for some reason. So please stop making me say it. And please just subscribe to the channel because it's free and it helps us out. And there you go. It doesn't impact your life in any tangible way otherwise. Got a lot of upset alerts in what shall be a legendary week 10. The Saturday of the Century of the Year is a podcast. It's upon us. And everyone's talking about the Premier Games. We already broke them down. They're on the channel right now. They're free for you to watch at your leisure. But what about some upset alerts? What about UCLA? Top 10 UCLA. According to some polls, top five UCLA. They are a five and a half point favorite headed to Minnesota. That's a two time zone travel situation. That's an 11 a.m. local kick there at Minnesota. That's a 9 a.m. body clock kick for the UCLA Bruins. Four or five of Minnesota's Big Ten games have been won. Possession games. So they've played them close except for Barry Odom. It's tough to keep it close against Barry and the Boilermakers there. Here's the problem. Minnesota's offense is not good. And UCLA, over their past five games, has held their opponents to 3, 15, 7, 10, and 0. Going to be tough to score. You could probably lean under blindly on a game like this, although I don't advise that kind of activity. Also, the long November theory is in play. Not the counting. Crow's long December stuff. That's just a good song. The long November theory is if you're a contender for the first time in a long time, it's one thing to do it in September. It's one thing to do it in October. But when you get to November, it's a fact, not backed up by science or math, but it's a fact that November is the longest month of the year for new contenders. New November theory bites teams every week, every year. Will it bite UCLA here? I'm going to put a seven on the upset alert. concern meter. I do have concern. I think they can get it done, but I do have concern. Next up, check the calendar. It does not say Coctober. It says November. I think it should say Crowvember, but I got voted down. And who am I to disagree with a vote process that lopsided? They wanted us to go Cockvember, but it just doesn't roll off the tongue. Mitch, no, stop shaking your head. No, no, it's Crowvember or nothing at all for me. Anyway, Texas A&M's at South Carolina. South Carolina's favored by six and a half. The last time these teams played, excuse me, earmuffs in Columbia. The last time these teams played, South Carolina led 30 to three at halftime. And then what happened, Jesse? And they lost. They lost. Marcel Reed put on angel wings and A&M stormed from behind to win this. I remember this game. I was in Athens, Georgia. I think Texas was in town to play Georgia. We were killing time. I was over in Jim Donnan's basement, willingly, not against my will. I was down there and watching it in utter disbelief, just complete insanity. So I don't care how big a lead South Carolina gets in this game. I will white knuckle this thing for four quarters. I will white knuckle this thing until Shane Beamer is at the post-game press conference podium going, look at that, four wins in a row. Look at that. It wasn't just Cocktober magic. So if South Carolina's turned a corner like it looks like they have, none of what I'm about to say will matter. Here's what I'm about to say. They are in a double-do-down spot, meaning they've had a couple of big high-emotion moments, the Tennessee game, and then they go do what they did to Oklahoma last week. And this is the one where they come home and everyone starts to talk about, oh, you know, we got Georgia coming in here in a couple of weeks. No. Well, yeah, you do, but no. And for that matter, don't even be overlooking Arkansas on the road next week. Don't do that. Don't fall into that trap. A&M, they can't throw it all that well. That's the way you beat South Carolina. I'm of the opinion Marcel Reed cannot throw the ball consistently without turning the ball over to the other team. So yeah, it may be a new day in Columbia, but this is a rested team coming in. They badly need a win. And you are in a situation where folks are going to overlook this game. Jesse, I'm putting a seven on you. It's a seven. This went from South Carolina minus seven and a half to South Carolina minus six and a half. Yeah. That's a pretty key number in football. Seven. Yeah. So someone out there with enough money to move a line believes in the Aggies. No, not me. I didn't, I didn't make a move on this game yet. Not me. Someone though. Next up, this is an auto 10. I was playing Northwestern at Northwestern. Northwestern's favored. I was looking at the JP poll. I'm looking at FanDuel's numbers. They're essentially telling you these are the same team and we're going to give some home field advantage there. In fact, we got Northwestern as a point better than Iowa in our power ratings. So Chip Kelly versus Phil Parker's like a pay-per-view banner. I could see that on like a late nineties, WWF pay-per-view promotional posters, Chip Kelly, like that SummerSlam 98 poster where Steve Austin's got like the statue of Liberty in his hand. And I don't, I think Undertaker had Empire State Building or something. That is, that is irresistible for us and movable object type stuff. Chip Kelly and Phil Parker. I hope one of those hears that and knows nothing about what I just said. Here's what I do know. I'm keeping an eye on Aiden Childs, who is the quarterback for Northwestern, who has revitalized everything up there. He is questionable right now. Now, Jesse, we think he's going to play, right? Like we were leaning towards him playing. Iowa, here's the thing about them. When they're on, they can splatter you. They splattered Wisconsin. They splattered Washington. They also, Bradley, take camera two for just a second. They also lost him. They lost Floyd to Minnesota. So it's a total grab bag with Iowa. I don't even care who's favorite in this game. It's just a 10. This is a coin flip game, so it's a 10. Next up, Michigan State versus Michigan. Michigan, 13 and a half point favorite. Michigan, I would say, got Tommy Carr's best game last game. That's the good news. The less good news, but still good, is it still meant they struggle one versus Rutgers. So how do we process that? How do we interpret that? Maybe it was the beginning of a little bit of a late season surge. Maybe, possibly. Michigan State has lost five straight this season. They have had no quarterback. Now, I know they've been trying to get QB1 back for this game. We'll see. Questionable right now, Jesse, correct? We just checked injury reports, that's why I keep asking Jesse. So they may get him back. I am not counting on Michigan to get margin on anyone this year. So even the games they win, they are close games. That means I've got to put at least a six on the upside alert concern meter for all Michigan games. And if you're laughing at me, please think about how hard you would have laughed if I said that about the Rutgers game that you barely won last week. So yes, I am putting a six on the Michigan State game. Michigan State has no business beating Michigan, but yet they've done it when they had no business doing it in the past. In Gainesville, it'll be Oklahoma at Florida. Florida's favored by six and a half. There are changes everywhere for both of these teams. Ben Arbuckle has been fired as the offensive coordinator at Oklahoma. Insert Jason Witten as play-calling offensive coordinator. Okay. I think something will be different. It stands to reason something will change. Doesn't mean it'll change for the better. Oklahoma fans would say, well, it's got to, by default, if something changes here, it's got to be for the better because you can't change us for the worse offensively. Look at those numbers. It's horrifically bad. I agree. On the other side, Florida, Tramell Jones is going to get the start at quarterback. I thought we would see that against Georgia. We didn't. And then we saw a terrible performance against Georgia. So Jesse, how many turnovers do you think in this game? If we had an over-under, Mitch says 10, okay, you're saying seven. I'll put the over-under at five and a half. And both of you are taking the over. Oh my goodness. It just moved to six and a half. Okay. So we took early action on the over. Yeah. I think it could be sloppy. No one cares 10 years from now. They just ask who won. I'm going to put a seven on the upset alert concern meter because I have no idea what to expect. And lastly, big number here, West Virginia's at Texas Tech. This is in that mid-afternoon window. It's going to get lost. And yet it's very important for the big 12 doomsday scenario to stay intact. West Virginia's at Texas Tech. And yet it's very Virginia is a 16 and a half point dog at Texas Tech. This is going to be a pretty complex game breakdown that takes 10 seconds. So bear with me. Texas Tech has a top 15 run defense. West Virginia does not have a top 100 run defense. Both teams want to run the ball. One of them will far more effectively. And that's the home team, probably about 15 seconds. Also, it's a new day in Lubbock with Tommy Castellanos. I want you to pause and consider the words that just came out of my mouth. And imagine yourself hearing these words two years ago. It's a new day in Lubbock, Texas with Tommy Castellanos. And yet that is a reality that we find ourselves experiencing in the year of our Lord, 2026. This is a two. I think Texas Tech could score 40, 45 points here and do it running the ball. Jesse over under 300 yards rushing for Texas Tech. Well, not me. I think the world of Joey Maguire and his team's ability to run the ball. And if you don't think they can run it for 300, that means you're questioning their manhood. Are you questioning Joey Maguire and Texas Tech's manhood? Say yes. Yes, you are. Clip it. All right. They're good. They just ran for 350. So that concludes upset alerts on the show. There's a very special relationship around here with us and certain head coaches out there. And Joey Maguire is one of them. Don't tread on Saturday tour. We are headed to South Bend, Indiana. We are headed up there tomorrow. Actually, we'll do bus in and paid on campus on Friday. You don't tread on Saturday tour for the first time all year has shirts for both schools themed for both schools. Of course, there's no official licensing here, merely similar color patterns, paid state material.com. Both of those are moving very well this week. I was not going to do the Miami shirt. And then all the Miami folks said, no, no, no, no, no, no. Notre Dame themed shirts. But we want to buy a shirt for the game. Give us our own colored shirt. So we did. So there it is. Paid state material.com. Also, the Christmas sweaters are moving. Not so surprisingly, the nice sack Santa shirt, the sweater there rather, that one is in the early lead for our best selling Christmas sweater. And I will be wearing one at some point myself. Of course, I'm not anti Christmas. I'm more anti party. Yeah, not so shocking. I don't think for anyone who knows me, but if it means that I get to rock the merch, then maybe it's time for me to dust off the social life. Yeah. And actually go to a Christmas party. $1,100. That's what you could be saving on Texas home insurance every year. What would you do with all that extra cash? You could go on a nice weekend getaway. You could finally get to those home repairs, or you could buy like 150 pounds of brisket. Ken just helps you keep more of it. Get a quote at Ken.com slash I heart kin.com slash I heart home insurance refers to the Ken house of property HD three policy with an owner occupied endorsement where applicable Texas customers who switch to can report annual savings of $1,160 on average based on Ken customer savings survey conducted August 2025 through August 2026. Whether you're getting the yard ready for kickoff, clearing leaves before guests arrive, or powering your tailgate, RYOBI is 40 volt outdoor lineup as you covered with over 85 products powered by the same 40 volt battery. You'll get peak performance across leaf blowers, chainsaws, trimmers, and more. With ChatGPT, you can do more than get answers. You can get things done. Whether you're leading a big project, planning an elaborate trip, or trying to balance work and life, ChatGPT can help. 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Texas, very strange here. 3-0 versus ranked teams. Just no problem. Ole Miss, got them. Tennessee, got them. Oklahoma, eh. So they're 3-2 versus unranked teams. Strange. Okay, but we'll see how the commissioner's poll treats them later in the show. Missouri's getting healthy. Texas is not. Texas is going to be without Hollywood smothers, maybe for the year. Colin Simmons still not back. Cam Coleman, like, I know they're listed as questionable. I have my doubts as to whether they'll play. Remember, Goosby left tackles out. So the way we've been talking about Alabama is kind of how we talk now with Texas. Like, a lot of their big-time players are out, and that leads me to my first point. There are a lot of reasons to like Missouri here. It's conditional, but there are a lot of reasons to like Missouri because Texas's offense, Jesse, I think this may be a paper pop. Worst three-and-out rate in the SEC. By a pretty wide margin, actually. So Missouri's really good against the run. If you can do, this sounds like every single Texas game preview. You force Arch Manning to throw the ball. Okay, that's the ticket to winning here. Here's what really has been a game-changer this entire season for Texas. This is going to sound crazy. It sounds like a typo, but it's not. There are a few big-time cap-buster passes that have completely saved their season. Case in point, there's probably one on the screen right now. That stuff right there, that is the difference in them still being in the playoff picture and not. So they are 99th in the country in passes of 20-plus yards. They're 8th in the country in passes of 40-plus. So the offense all year, Texas fans know this. Anyone who watches them knows it hasn't been, oh, look at this offense humming. Even if you score like 27 points, it's not that the offense hummed all day. It's that there were long, dry stretches, and then they were interrupted by just random cat buster plays. Probably on 3rd and 18th. or something like that. If that happens, you're going to beat Missouri. If they limit that, then this is Missouri's game to win, I think. Their pass rush could have a really, really big day here. Now, why I like Texas is because even without Colin Simmons, I know they've got a defense that can win. I know they've got a defense that can travel. And Missouri without explosive runs is a shell of an offense. And that's even with Austin Simmons. But he needs the complementary ground game here. Texas defense top 10 in limiting explosive runs. So typically, if you're going to score on Texas, you're going to have to sustain drives to do it, which brings in obviously the down in distance, staying ahead of the chains, third down conversion rate. Another area, though, if I'm Texas that I think I can swing this is I'm top 10 in red zone touchdown percentage, and Missouri is 115th. So I would say probably in terms of pre-padlock stats, that's where the game is. It's likely to be one. If not that, then we get back to the whole, can you or can you not predict turnovers? Because if it plays out the way that this stuff right here, paper, if it plays out the way the paper says it should play out, Missouri's eighth in the country in turnover margin. Texas is in the 100s. I don't always think it's predictive, though. So I'm going to stay neutral on that. Texas has played one true road game this year. They played at Tennessee. It was a really ugly game. We were there. Texas ends up winning. Elsewhere, they've played at home or they've played neutral site. Now they're going to have to play three of their final four on the road. It's kind of a weirdly shaped schedule. So let's take a look at what the model thinks here. FanDuel's got Texas minus two and a half. The model has Texas minus two. I think the wrong team's favored. I've liked Missouri all week. Nothing has budged me off of this feeling. So I'm not only going to take Missouri to win the game outright, I will add Missouri plus two and a half to the Ramen Noodle Express. There you go. We rarely add games to the Ramen Noodle Express during the game preview itself, but I felt compelled. And also, I knew Prez already had the graphic made so I could just say whatever I wanted to in the show. This show is brought to you by Ram. Here we go. Here we go. Do we have the truck? Yes, we do. Look at that, Jesse. Seamless. Followed it all the way across the screen. So I've been driving a Ram around Nashville, getting a lot of compliments, been pulling into the gym. Did you hear that, Jesse? Pulling into the what? The gym? Yeah, a lot of compliments. You should join me sometime. Not in the Ram, but maybe at the gym. It would be fun. We've appreciated them all year. It's been a lot of fun. Quick backstory. So I think I've shared this with you. Most partners who approach us, we just kind of say no to because I don't like to jam up the show with 15 or 20 different ad reads. But every now and then, a partner comes our way and I say, no, no, no, no, no, no. Let me listen to you. I'm not going to listen to you. That makes sense. So when we started talking to Ram, I'm like, we have a Twister movie poster on the set. That's what Bill drove in Twister. He drove a red Ram. And wouldn't you know it? That's what I got out in the parking lot right now. It's dream come true type stuff. And for you, imagine yourself 48 hours from now, I guess less now that the show has started, but 36 hours from now. You're at one of the most magical tailgate scenes this Saturday that you'll ever have. And you're, you're pulling up in a Ram. That tailgate scene is enhanced because it's a Ram tailgate. I know Bradley can't zoom in on my arm, but frankly, chill bumps. It's freezing in the studio too, but it's mostly because of the Ram, mostly because of the Ram. So we appreciate them. Best truck in the game. And I can actually attest because I'm driving one. Next up. I can't believe this. Oregon's playing Ohio state. And in July, if we told each other, boy, week 10 is going to be the biggest week of the year. You would have said, yeah, no man, Oregon and Ohio state, that's going to be a top five matchup. Well, it turns out week 10 is still the biggest Saturday of the year and Oregon, Ohio state. I'm not saying it's forgotten about, but it is very much on the back burner. You got backup quarterbacks here. It's really the most unbelievable aspect that this week still ended up being the biggest week of the year. And this game features five already as November starts. In fact, Ohio state has multiple losses before November for the first time since 2011, Oregon three losses still in the CFP rankings at number 23. So who's going to win the game? Ohio state. I still have power rated pretty high. Some people think I have them power rated too high. I still like Ohio state. I still think they've got some juice about them. One of the things that I think they're better than what they showed at USC. It's not so much even, oh, they're playing with a backup quarterback or, oh, execution killed them. Yes, those things matter, but there were so many self-inflicteds that I look at those along with the red zone failures. And I think to myself, almost independent of who's lining up across from them. If you just control what you can control and fix what you can fix, you'll be okay. You won't be quite as good as you'd be at full strength, but you're Ohio state, man. You're still better than 95% of the country. If, and that's a big, if you control the controllables, uh, this stuff can change on a dime here. So this is not a vintage Oregon defense. In fact, the defensive numbers are very comparable to that of USC. So if I've got home field now, and I got a week to lick my wounds and be embarrassed, and even my staff's being called out. And then I get another shot here. I think I can count on a couple of things. I think I can count on being able to run the ball on me. I'm just not going to let that happen. Just no, no negotiation there. I'm not going to let that happen. Number two, if we don't beat ourselves, we're okay. It's one of those rare situations where you could go key matchups. You can go key players. I could talk Jeremiah Smith all day long. Uh, I really think it's much more fundamental than that for Ohio state. Now on the flip side, if I'm making the case for Oregon, I don't know how many of you watched that game. Last week, but that Northwestern games 20 to six Northwestern at one point enough for me to tweet something about it. And then Oregon turned it on and, uh, Dylan Ryola, I got to give him credit made several big time throws easily looked the best that he's looked. And I don't know how long and maybe just, maybe it clicked for him. Maybe that was him finally checking in for this season. We thought that was happening when he came in, in the USC game, turns out that was delayed a little bit. Maybe it clicked last week. And I'm thinking to myself, I'm not shutting down Jeremiah Smith, but if I don't let him kill me, who else will? Cause Ohio state's not killing anyone running the ball. Ohio state beyond Jeremiah Smith does not have a standout pass catcher on this team. And if I especially think that they're a little vulnerable at quarterback and I can affect that quarterback, I could crowbar this offense home or road. I don't care where we play. We can play in a parking lot in Salt Lake city. I think I can really grind them to a halt offensively. And what if I come in just totally free and easy? No one expects anything of me. I already got three losses. Imagine me grabbing an early lead in Columbus, Ohio. Imagine the Columbus pucker as Meemaw would call it a good old fashioned Columbus puckering. And also my first time out with my new offensive coordinator last week yielded me 30 plus points. If I get 24, 27 on the board here, some things could happen. Can either team be plus in the run game? Can either team's defensive line become true game changers here? Could either one of them take over this game? We know both quarterbacks are wild cards, obviously. Let's take a look at what the model thinks here compared to FanDuel. FanDuel's got Ohio state minus seven and a half. Model's got Ohio state minus eight and a half. I normally don't like laying this many points with this many questions. I just think Ohio state in totality is much better than what they showed last week. And if I'm right, they'll show it here. And so I'm going to trust Ohio state to get about a 10 point win, something like that. I'll take Ohio state minus seven and a half. Our friends at Quick Trip, I was talking to Quick Trip Joe within the past hour, actually. They want to remind you, it is a fact that you need to eat. If not soon, then eventually. They got all kinds of crispy snacks at Quick Trip. It is also a fact that you need to eat if you are driving a vehicle. This side of electricity, you're going to need to fill that tank. And at Quick Trip, there are gas pumps at every location in the country. There is cold brew on tap at most locations in the country. And I would say every location, but I cannot vouch for every single individual place at any given time. What I do know is this is our favorite place to go when we're on the road. I have, I've been known to push the needle a little bit. I've been known to a little bit past E waiting for a quick trip. I legally cannot be held responsible if you do that and it crashes and burns, but still it's a fun challenge to give yourself when you're on the road. I don't know how many gallons of cold brew on tap or quick trip gasoline that I and my vehicle have consumed so far this year, but I will just say it's not nearly enough and I cannot wait to get back out there. Did you know Texans who switched to Ken say they saved around $1,100 a year on home insurance? You know, the one we're talking about. K-I-N.com slash iHeart. Whether you're getting the yard ready for kickoff, clearing leagues before guests arrive, or powering your tailgate, Ryobi's 40-volt outdoor lineup has you covered. You've got the apps for scrolling. Endlessly at 2 a.m. Live play-by-play, endless music and podcasts just for you. Today. iHeartRadio. The commissioner's poll, huh? The Week 10 commissioner's poll is out. Now, once the college football playoff rankings come out, we kind of change our process here. I just, we're filling the rankings out like I would do my playoff bracket. So there you see it right there. It's presented by Lovable. In fact, this is a tool that we built with Lovable. And this is the order. This is the commissioner's poll for this week. And I put it out earlier today, as I always do on Thursday, because I want to get feedback, because I like to react to the feedback. Instead of guessing what people think, I like to see what people think. So the first bit of feedback we got was that Georgia has a loss to an unranked team at home. Texas has two losses to unranked teams. But let's put them in the top five anyway. Yes, let's put them in the top five anyway. What's the problem with that? I assume the insinuation there is, well, they've got losses, so they can't be top five. Well, most everyone who's played anyone has losses. And I am not going down this road again where we eliminate people with several good wins because they lost games, because that's the way this sport works right now. So Texas, as an example, yeah, Texas has losses. You know what they also have? They've got wins over Ohio State, with Julian saying, over Tennessee on the road, and over Ole Miss. Yes. First off, Bradley, do me a favor. Pull up the question again or pull up the comment. Do you notice how people do this, Jesse? He goes, Texas has two losses to unranked teams because, in parentheses, Florida shouldn't be ranked. Okay, but they are. So that doesn't hold any weight. So they've got a loss to one unranked team and a ranked team. Might I suggest part of the reason Florida's ranked is because they beat Texas, you know? So anyway, I value wins. So Georgia's up there. Georgia's got a loss to Auburn. Georgia also has a win on the road against Alabama. They've got a win on the road against a number, even in my opinion, a top 10 team. Not quite top five, but top 10. So yes, they should be up there. And if you're not going to have them up there, who are you going to have up there? Because what you're going to have to tell me is you think UCLA belongs above them. And at that point, instead of arguing who they lost to, I'm going to flip it on its ear and say, well, who have they beaten? And I'm going to have to have you acknowledge Texas has like three wins, at least better than UCLA's best win. So difference in opinion, I guess. Next up. I didn't get this, Jesse. Larry said, Indiana and Notre Dame having a five spot gap is wild. So I've got Indiana seven and I've got Notre Dame 12. He said that's wild. And to me, it's very commonsensical. Number one, because Indiana lost to a better team by fewer points. Indiana has a loss to Ohio State and they had a ball in the air to win the game, by the way, but they lost. They lost close to Ohio State and Notre Dame lost close to Brigham Young. And with Julian saying, I think it's very clear. Ohio State is a higher ranked team than Brigham Young. And that's the team that Indiana lost to. And secondly, Indiana has got better quality wins. So in both of those compartments, it's Indiana above Notre Dame. If I were power rating the teams, I'd put Notre Dame above Indiana, but this is not the JP poll. So if Notre Dame wants to get vaulted right back up there into the top five conversation, beat Miami. That's number one right now. Number one team in the country coming into your building two days from now. Beat them. If you can't beat them, you have nothing to hang your hat on. This is not power ratings, okay? Nor should it be. This is not who would be favored, nor should it be. This is about what you've earned. That's what it should be. That's all it should be. And I'm not saying Indiana's lit the world on fire. I've got them number seven, but they do belong above Notre Dame right now. Next up, someone said, are we putting too much emphasis on how teams look on paper rather than who they've actually beaten? Well, we're not because I'm part of we. I'm not. Are we putting too much emphasis on paper? Buddy, if I were putting emphasis on paper, I'd have Notre Dame top three because I have Notre Dame power rated top three, but I've got them ranked 12th. If I were putting the emphasis on paper instead of results, I'd have LSU top three because we've got them power rated top three, but I don't have them ranked there. I got them ranked 15th. So I don't know where that comes from. Now, if that was not towards me and it was just a more. a more general statement, then I would say, judging by the AP poll, yeah, I think the AP poll is putting a lot more emphasis on paper and how good they think the teams are rather than what they have shown via resume. That's what was most crazy about this week. Imagine being a casual fan and looking at the AP poll. Notre Dame's fourth, right, Jesse? Fourth or fifth in the AP poll. And then the playoff rankings come out and they're 11th and I'm putting mine out here and they're 12th. Only because I'm trying to think along with the committee. Yeah, if you're putting Notre Dame fourth right now, yeah, you're drunk on paper. But if you're judging by resume, which I'm doing here, that resume is the only thing that would keep Notre Dame or LSU out of the top 10 right now. And LSU's got a great chance to vault up there. Notre Dame's got one chance to vault up there. Next up, you're going to hear this more and more. Cooper hit us up and said, so you rip apart the committee for not honoring head to head, but you. You still don't honor it. First off, we've had one playoff ranking release, which was the other night. Jesse, do you remember me ripping the committee apart for head to head? Because I didn't even remember mentioning it. If I did, I mentioned it very, very passively. Now, what I do remember is last year, I ripped the committee for not taking head to head into account with your Notre Dame Miami situation. And I thought their great flaw there was they didn't think. They were done losing. Those teams were ranked where they were. And the committee kind of said, we'll never have to account for this because Miami's going to lose some more games. And Miami didn't lose any more games. And the committee handcuffed themselves. And at the very end, they had to acknowledge head to head, which is how they got flipped in the last set of rankings. That was stupid. So I did go after them last year about it. I didn't say much of anything about head to head the other night. I know a lot of people said stuff about head to head specifically, with Tennessee and Alabama. I have found a lot of people have a fundamental problem with the way the committee does the head to head. And they've explained it before. It gets kind of nuanced. But they put teams in pods. And if you're in the same pod, you know, if like Alabama, Tennessee are in the same pod, well, then head to head is going to come into play. But if they're not being judged in the same pod, meaning if they're not close enough in the rankings to get grouped in the same pod, head to head is not going to come. And I know that makes a lot of people angry. I agree with the principle of doing it that way. Because let me ask you this. how else do you do it effectively? Because I know what your instinct may be. Your instinct may be what my first instinct used to be when they first started talking about this stuff. My first instinct was head-to-head needs to be the most important thing. And so you can say that. It sounds really good. It rolls off the tongue. It makes sense. That's why we're playing the games after all. That's why we actually do this stuff on Saturday. But if it comes down to ranking everyone and not just ranking two teams in a vacuum, you can't do it that way. Here's what I mean by that. If Alabama-Tennessee play and Tennessee wins, and the only job you have the rest of the year is to rank Tennessee and Alabama, it's very easy to put Tennessee above Alabama for the rest of the year because they played. That's very simple. But that's not your job. Your job is to rank every team. So now let me ask you something. If you still think head-to-head has to carry all the weight, what do you think should happen with Auburn-Georgia right now? You think Auburn should be ahead of Georgia? Oh no, Josh, we can't put Auburn ahead of Georgia. Why not? You got to head-to-head. Why wouldn't you have Auburn ahead of Georgia? So you see, you can't just do head-to-head. You can value it a whole lot without saying it's the absolute end of the world. It's the absolute one and only thing that matters. That's why I came around to committees. That's the way of thinking. Now here's the problem I had with the committee the other night. They got Bama too high to begin with. So I think Bama ought to be like at number eight where I have them right now. But I still did not have them close enough to Tennessee because I got Tennessee 14th. I still didn't have them close enough where I brought head-to-head into account. And I'll tell you why. Because past the game itself that they played against each other, Bama's just got several better wins. They got the South Carolina win. They've got the Kentucky win. They got the Camario-Taylor-Mississippi State win. There's going to be a lot of debate about that. You can argue Camario-Taylor was already hurt before that game, which he was. Still, the value of that win is a little bit higher than otherwise the value of beating Mississippi State would have been. My point is, Tennessee's best win is Auburn. Like outside of the Bama game itself, Tennessee's best win is Auburn. Their next best wins after that are Georgia Tech and Arkansas. I would say Bama's fourth best win. Which is Texas A&M. Nothing to write home about. But even that's better than Tennessee's second best win. So that's why Alabama's ahead of Tennessee right now. Here's the good news. It won't matter. Bama may lose to LSU or Tennessee may not even care what Alabama does because Tennessee may beat Kentucky and then beat Texas and beat LSU. Not beat Texas. Beat LSU. So they got chances here. Tennessee's got chances. But head-to-head matters a lot. And here's what else I'll tell you. If Alabama loses this Saturday and they end up in a three-loss quagmire, they may be in there with Tennessee at the end of the year. Guess what's going to matter then? Head-to-head will matter then, as it should, because they'll be grouped in the same pod. Lastly, I wanted to make sure we got this one in here. Andy said these rankings are 10 of 10. Brigham Young above Notre Dame. Kentucky being respected properly. Wake Forest in the mix. A pinnacle of integrity and honesty. And that's all we're trying to do here, after all. That's all we're trying to do. We see a void in the community. We see a void of integrity, Jesse. We don't see enough honesty out there. And we show up and try and provide both. And that is what the commissioner's poll is all about, after all. They're watching us in Provo, Utah. They're watching us in Orlando, Florida. They're watching us in San Antonio, Texas. And we appreciate it. 1100 dollars. You could finally get to those home repairs. Or you could buy like 150 pounds of brisket. Texas customers who switch to Kin report annual savings of $1,100. If you're a Kin owner, you can get a free home insurance policy. If you're a Kin owner, based on Kin customer savings survey conducted August 2025 through August 2026. Whether you're getting the yard ready for kickoff, clearing leaves before guests arrive, or powering your tailgate, RYOBI's 40-volt outdoor lineup has you covered. Visit RYOBI.com. RYOBI.com. RYOBI.com. I have in my hand, if we ever win an award for the Viewer's Guide, what is sure to be the award-winning version of the Viewer's Guide, because this is the biggest week of the year. This is the Saturday of the century of the millennium of the year. And I have in my hand a piece of paper that has no less than 10 banger games on it. Just going to be incredible. This is your Viewer's Guide. This is how to know how to program your life on Saturday. Noon window, noon Eastern time. Very important distinction there, because the biggest game that needs to be on your main screen is going to kick off at 10 a.m. local time, and that is the Holy War, which is a term that the Big 12 doesn't want us to use. Holy War, Holy War, Holy War. So Brigham Young at Utah, Holy War, what a game that's going to be. What an environment that's going to be. Eat your sausage McMuffins in the stands. Do whatever you need to do. It's going to be an incredible environment. So that's clear main screen material. However, Texas at Missouri is not far behind. And that one kicks off at 11 a.m. local time, noon Eastern. Texas is a two and a half point favorite. Some of us think the upset may be a foot there. And then as that's going on, let's not forget on one of our other screens or part of our quad box, that game right there, UCLA at Minnesota. It's not ranked versus ranked, but it's a top 10 team in unfamiliar territory going on the road. And that's the noon game on Fox. And by the way, on ESPN2, in the same window, Clemson is going to Syracuse. Clemson, at last check, Jesse, was a two and a half point favorite. And I have not checked it. That line has moved. They're about a two, two and a half point favorite at Syracuse. Let's just be really careful. Okay. I'm talking softly for a reason. Let's be really careful there. And some other games going on. Like if you, if you want to watch Arkansas, Auburn, you are free to do so on SEC network at 1245. Bill Belichick is going up to Connecticut to take on UConn on CBS sports network. So let's go to the midday window. Alabama LSU is your main event here. It is a three 30 Eastern time, two 30 local time kick on ABC. What is going to happen? With that game right there, CBS three 30 Oregon, Ohio state, Jesse, do you think Jenny Dell and the crew thought they would get Oregon, Ohio state at the beginning of the year on CBS? Do you believe at the beginning of the year, if you pulled the fine folks at Fox, they ever believed that they'd be passing on Oregon, Ohio state to go to Utah? I don't, but yet that's where we are. What's wait a second. Go back to the, go back to the first slate. The actual game on Fox is UCLA, Minnesota, right? Where's big noon kickoff. I should have checked that before. Cause I'm trying to figure out the rotation may have worked where CBS just had the first pick this week. They're going to army air force. It's the armed services week. Okay. Yeah. All right. So I had that all discombobulated in my mind. Still the folks at CBS have to be pleased that they got Oregon, Ohio state. So, okay. We can go back to the mid afternoon guide now. So that one's going down same time as that's going down. I think it's a very, very sleeper game type situation in Columbia, South Carolina with Texas A&M going to South Carolina. That's a three o'clock Eastern time kickoff. It is not October anymore. It's anyone's game here. South Carolina is still alive in the playoff picture. And those are not words I ever thought that would come out of my mouth a month ago. Jesse, you guys going to Seattle three 30, 1230, I guess, local time kick out there on FS1. one game win streak, one game conference win streak. Yeah. Jesse is reinvigorated. He's ready to go. And then the sun goes down, which in Nashville will happen roughly after four o'clock in the afternoon. And the prime time window is upon us. And buddy, it just goes off. You got Miami at Notre Dame, 730 NBC. That's probably on your main screen. If that's not on your main screen, Georgia at Ole Miss, 730 ABC. If that's not on your main screen, Kentucky at Tennessee, 615 Eastern kick. So remember now we're going to have a solid little window where Kentucky, Tennessee gets started early and it's approaching halftime by the time these other two games start. Interesting. I don't know the methodology there. I trust it, but I don't have to understand it. And then after all that, you're going to have to figure out, all right, how many more screens do I have? Because Iowa Northwestern is a pretty consequential game and that's going out at 730 on Fox. And then we've got a rivalry game over on Peacock at 730 between Michigan and Michigan State. And oh, by the way, no one knows what to expect with Oklahoma going down to Florida, but Florida's still technically alive and they're still ranked. That's 745 on SEC network. And Prez, a little bit later on, Joey McGuire and company, they're still very much alive in the playoff picture. And they're hosting West Virginia at 930 on ESPN. The locals in Lubbock are thrilled about an 830 local time kickoff. I'm told how, what, what wonderful news that is out there. So the only thing I think this day lacked, if I could, if I could re-engineer this day, I would take the Holy war from being at noon, Eastern 10 AM local time. And I would put it at like 1030 at night in that, that window that is right now occupied by Texas state, Oregon state. I would love for us to have a top 10 matchup way after dart, just for old pack 12 after darks time sakes. So your Friday lineup, we always do Friday last Nebraska's at Illinois at eight o'clock on Fox and Virginia tech is at SMU at seven o'clock on ESPN. Both of those will be good games. I'm trying to figure out what to do with Friday night lines. And when we're going to do it, you're going to have to stay tuned to the Josh Pate CFB because I have a live show in South Bend tomorrow night to ticketed event. It's not like live on the YouTube channel, so we won't broadcast it anywhere, but I got to figure out when we're going to do Friday night lines. So just stay tuned. I'll let you know about that tomorrow. A lot of games to choose from this week. A lot of different places you could go. You could go to Tucson for TCU being in town. You could go to Starkville for Vanderbilt being in town. I think that game's at Mississippi state. It's either there, Nashville. You could go anywhere and everywhere. You go to Champaign for Nebraska being in town tomorrow night, go to seat geek though, to get your tickets, to get your parking. And before you pay right before checkout and that promo code box interpate 10 P A T E 1 0. And that'll get you 10% off any order up to $200. And it'll get you $20 off any order above $200. So we appreciate them saving our people a little bit of money. The way I figure it is you're going to buy the tickets anyway. You might as well save a little money. So seat geek and use promo code pate 10 P A T E 1 0 at checkout. Chaos is what it's all about. Specifically college football playoff chaos. And one of you asked me what scenario would cause the most CFP chaos. I got a few of them. I think the big 12 doomsday scenario may end up causing the most chaos because I think right now when people map playoff in their mind, they have a maximum of two big 12 teams in the playoff, maybe just one, but there is a path for three. So right now, this is not all that complicated. In theory, we've got the holy war this Saturday. So we got Brigham young going to Utah. If Brigham young beats Utah and then the rest of the way, they just win their final few games. Texas tech finishes 11 and one Utah finishes 11 and one. Brigham young finishes 11 and one. We would at that point have BYU, Utah and the big 12 championship game, Texas tech, just 11 and one. That's the end of the regular season. If we get a reversal of this Saturday's result where Utah beats Brigham young in the rematch, we've got conference champ, Utah. They'll be in. We've got a Brigham young team that will have gone into conference championship Saturday. Well inside the top 10. And you got Texas tech who probably also goes into conference championship Saturday in the top 10 rested, just resting that day. Guys, there's a chance all three of them are in. You got to figure out how the committee would handle that. And also there's an ACC doomsday scenario. It's crazy, Jesse, that the most doomsday scenario the ACC can do right now is getting two teams in the playoff, but that's kind of what we're talking about. But that's not the right now. And that is Miami loses to Notre Dame, but they're not done losing. Let's say they look like a wreck offensively. I doubt it, but let's say they look like a wreck offensively Saturday, or maybe they get more banged up Saturday and they lose to Duke or Virginia tech these next two weeks. And there are two loss team with, with no major wins. They're dealing with the same fundamental argument against them that Notre Dame is. By that time. And they play wake in the ACC championship game. Wake beats them. Miami's out of the playoff just like that. They are, they are a lock right now to make the playoff. I mean, they're everyone's favorite to make the playoff and that would be disastrous. Or there's the other one where Miami just wins out and wake wins out and wake enters conference championship Saturday in the top 10 and they lose to Miami close. And the committee has to ask themselves, are we going to bump them out? Are we going to punish them for being in a conference title game? What if the ACC and the big 12 doomsday scenarios happen simultaneously? And you potentially already have five playoff spots accounted for unlikely, but possible. Then I do want to address this Alabama three loss misnomer. In my opinion, the misnomer is Bama's ranked fifth in the playoff. A lot of people think Bama shouldn't be fifth in the playoff, me included, but they are. That is leading a lot of people to believe they can afford to lose another game. And I don't automatically believe that here's how I think people are figuring that they're figuring, okay, well, if they're ranked fifth and they're playing LSU and LSU's 14th, Jesse, is that right? 13th or 14th. If they lose on the road to LSU, they're not going to drop all that far. Maybe they'll drop to eight or nine and then they'll just win out. So they're not going to drop any further after that. Uh, you don't know that part because there's another factor in the equation and that's Alabama's resume, to this point, Bama's resume is built on a big blowout win against current number six, Kentucky, a big blowout win against current number 20, I believe South Carolina. As long as that holds, you're right. Three loss Alabama's probably in the playoff. You don't know that's going to hold. What if Kentucky and South Carolina each drop a couple of games down the stretch and the floor of Alabama's resume becomes very shaky. See, I think they're going to lose. I don't think they're going to lose. I don't think the, the value of their wins are just permanently baked and they're just already figured in. So the Bama three loss conundrum could pop up, but also that could put them in a pool of teams with Tennessee, a pool of Tennessee and maybe Texas and Missouri LSU, but Bama could end up being compared to a couple of other three loss teams that both have head to head wins against them in Tennessee and LSU. So it could get really real really quick for Alabama. So, Alabama, what about the big 10 doomsday scenario? Let me float you something, Jesse. This is very believable. Indiana just wins out. All right. That's firstly, they win the big 10 title. Ohio state loses one more game. USC as part of Indiana winning out has lost a third game already, but USC beats UCLA towards the end of the year. UCLA still goes to the big 10 title game. UCLA loses to Indiana. Would the committee put UCLA in if their last two games are losses and their resume is really not impressive at all? Or could we have a legitimate situation where only one big 10 team makes the playoff? Cause that is insanity to say even now. And I've seen that the conference is going to be a big 10 game. I've seen that the conference is going to be a big 10 game. And I've seen that the conference is shaky. Like Penn state lets you down. Michigan lets you down. Oregon's lets you down. Um, Iowa probably not going to be a factor. Ohio state's got quarterback issues. Washington lets you down like so many teams that were supposed to take a jump, did not take a jump. Indiana. They're there. UCLA. Thank goodness. They're there. USC still could be there, but it's not a totally out of the not totally out of the realm of possibility the Big 12 and the ACC get more teams than the Big 10. believe it or not. I wouldn't bet on that at the moment, but it's in the cards. And you asked for chaos, so I'm giving you chaos. Lastly, just the SEC picture in general. With four weeks left to go, the opportunity for the three loss disaster scenario is insane right now. It's Ole Miss, Georgia. These teams could be three losses or better, I think. And I'm not even going to include all of them that are mathematically capable of being here. But you're looking at a real world where Tennessee, Alabama, South Carolina, LSU, Texas, Missouri, Georgia, Ole Miss are all nine and three or better. What do you do? What do you really do? I have no idea. Now, here's what I won't do. I will not ever be foolish enough into sitting here saying, that's why we need 24 teams. Nope. Nope. I'm fine. I'm fine with chaos. I'm fine with people being angry. That's okay. It's not the worst thing in the world. That means the regular season is over. The regular season games still have a ton of value on them. Over at FanDuel right now, you know, you can go bet right now, teams to make or miss the playoff. Right this second, you can do that. So if you think you've got a good read on it, but how about this Saturday? Powerhouse Saturday. That's what FanDuel Mike has decided to call it. FanDuel Mike and friends has decided to call it Powerhouse Saturday. Profit boost for each window on Saturday. The early window, Brigham Young, Utah. Bama, LSU in the midday window. Miami, Notre Dame in the primetime window. Profit boost on all of them. You got 30% profit boost tokens on any game. Just looks like, it's like looking at a Christmas tree, really. That's how lit up the board is for this Saturday. Must be 21 plus and present in select states. For Kansas, in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC. First online real money wager only. $5 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fanduel.com slash RG. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut or visit ndgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. And before we go here, I'm going to add a best bet on the Ramen Noodle Express. Very kindly, just put a giant red X through last night's disaster. Yes, we were on Eastern Michigan last night. For which I can do nothing more than apologize. Did Central Michigan go five for five on fourth down? That's something that really happened to us. That's insane. We will forget that. We'll add it to the record, but we'll otherwise forget that. We will never mention Eastern Michigan by name on the show again. We will mention U and LV minus six and a half. And I am adding Missouri plus two and a half. I like Missouri to win outright. We're adding plus two and a half. As I said, Friday Night Lines, I'll let you know tomorrow. Stay tuned at Josh Pate CFB, Twitter and Instagram. You should be following there anyway. I'll let you know when Friday Night Lines is going to happen. And we will make sure to do the best we can to do what we did last week, which is win big because we were six and three last week. What a big weekend ahead. A lot of you will see you in South Bend tomorrow. Some of you will see in South Bend tomorrow night for the Pate State Live show. But I appreciate you guys. We've had insane traffic this week. Ton of viewership. Appreciate you so much. One way or the other, we're going to be around, may do some reaction videos on the channel Saturday night. So make sure you're dropping in and checking. You never know when I feel moved to just put a video up before the Sunday show, but we will absolutely be here Sunday night to break everything down. So until then, for director Bradley, producer Jesse, I'm Josh Pate. Have a good weekend. Enjoy these games and God bless. Must be 21 plus and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 plus and present in DC. First online real money wager only $5 first deposit required. Restrictions apply. Gambling problem? Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1-800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY in New York. Maybe you can do both. Boost Mobile. What's your plan? Wait, I came in for two things. How is this $47? All right, we're going to need a plan here. Just start simple with Bank of America Advantage Safe Balance Banking. No overdraft item fees, no monthly maintenance fee if you're under 25. Oh, that's actually really simple. Safe Balance Banking. One less thing to figure out. Learn more at bva.com. Simple banking. Terms and conditions apply. Bank of America and a member FDIC. This is Danielle Fishel. Ryder Strong. And Will Friedle. $700. 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