Week 10 Picks & Predictions: Miami-Notre Dame, BYU-Utah, Alabama-LSU, Oregon-Ohio State & more

Progressive's Accident Response can contact emergency services if you're in a major accident. The only thing worse than someone you love being in an accident is not being able to help them. So Progressive is here to help when you can't. So get peace of mind knowing your loved ones are protected with Progressive's Accident Response. Learn more at Progressive.com. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates Limited Availability in California Driver is responsible for emergency and towing charges not covered by the policy. Coverage subject to policy terms and conditions. I just want to remind everybody we're picking against the spread. We don't cherry pick. Everybody just be responsible out there, okay? Nobody get upset out there at anything. I don't think Georgia's going to be able to separate in this game, but they're too consistent. And I don't expect the dogs to beat the dogs. You see what I did there, Kirby? Took your line and I stole it. Hey, welcome into the Joel Klatt Show. I'm Joel Klatt. This show is brought to you by Hilton. Hilton for the. For the stay and we thank them for their support. Did we all cool off after yesterday's program? I promise to not yell and scream in this show. Don't worry. I've got picks and previews here, folks. Mostly previews. I will still make picks. As you know, has not gone great the last couple of weeks. I think I'm two for my last 15. No, two for my last 17. So two and 15 in my last 17. All right? We're picking against the spread and we don't cherry pick. This is not a betting show. I hope you just enjoy the content. Everybody just be responsible out there. Nobody get upset out there at anything, even the college football playoff rankings. Here we go. I'm going to be in Minnesota. Can't wait for this one. UCLA at Minnesota. I think this is going to be a really good football game because one of the things I know about Minnesota is that they're going to kind of drag you into a game that you probably don't want to play when they're at home. We've seen it already against Michigan. We saw it against Iowa, and that's what P.J. Fleck does. They did it even last week on the road against Indiana in a game that, quite frankly, Indiana escaped that game, even though it was in Bloomington. And so now UCLA is going to put that undefeated record on the line, on the road, in what I think is easily their biggest test to date. I know that the Oregon game looks big, and it was meaningful, and there's no doubt that it was. The problem for me is that you were down to your third-string quarterback for Oregon at the time, and that just wasn't the same Oregon team that certainly it would have been with Dante Moore, or even what it is now after the comeback that Rayola had against Northwestern. So you kind of see my point. I think this is going to be a very difficult game for Bob Chesney and UCLA. Minnesota is a good team at home, and they're going to want to slow it down and make you uncomfortable, and that's what they do. So if UCLA can run it like they want to run it, then that's the best way to come back. A team that wants to drag you into a style of game that is their style of game. How do you combat that on the road? You run the football. You play great defense. It just so happens to be that that's exactly how UCLA is built. They run the ball. They play solid defense. A couple of players that I cannot wait to watch live, and I just haven't been able to do it. Actually, one of them I saw live when he was at Oklahoma, but now this year in their leadership role and their production role, one of them you're seeing right now in the highlights on YouTube. Remember, go subscribe. Like, do all the things. Comment. That'd be fun. Wayne Knight is awesome. Now, I'm old enough to remember and, in fact, played against when he was at Kansas State, Darren Sproles, which was awesome. Watching Sproles as a competitor was maddening because no one could tackle him, and he was so fast, and he could just create so much space in a short area, and that's exactly what Wayne Knight does. He is a prototypical Sproles player. Now, that might be going over. Remember some of your heads. If you're too young to remember Darren Sproles, even from his time in the NFL, I don't know what to do. Like, I don't know. Google it. Do we still do that? AI it? Does AI do that? Am I that old? Are we at this point? Sproles was awesome, and I think Wayne Knight is awesome, and it's his ability to be an all-purpose contributor, running the football, which is obvious. He averaged over six yards per carry, but then also being able to catch it out of the backfield and create the mismatches with linebackers, so I'm excited to see Wayne Knight, and then I'm really excited to see Sammy. I saw Omasigo when he was at Oklahoma. Wasn't the contributor that he is now, obviously, and he's kind of the straw that stirs the drink for this defense, which is right now a top-five defense in all of college football. They do a great job getting takeaways. They're one of the best teams in the country getting takeaways, which is, by the way, how you have a turnaround like this. What were they? Three-win team. Now they're an undefeated team. How do you do that? Well, you obviously have to build a new culture, which Chesney has done, but then you also have to be great. You have to be great in the turnover margin, and that's exactly what they've done for UCLA. So if you're going to go on the road, what do you have to do? You've got to control the game on the ground. You've got to play great defense, and you can't turn it over. Well, that's kind of how UCLA is built. Minnesota has played some really tough games of late, and I know offensively their statistics aren't going to blow you out of the water, and in fact, they're probably, if you look at them, poor on the offensive side from a statistics standpoint. You do have to give them a little bit of a pass because of the defenses that they've played. They've played some really good games. Really good defenses. Indiana last week, excellent defense, and they were able to make some plays even in the run game in that game on the road. They played Michigan. They played Iowa. Now they're going to play UCLA. All four of those defenses, basically top 12, 11, 12 defenses in all of college football. So you give Drake Lindsey, the quarterback, a little bit of a pass, right? They're banged up on the offensive line. There is a guy that I love on the offensive line, and I actually think he's going to be one of the first offensive linemen taken in next spring's NFL draft. Greg Johnson, their center. Excellent player. Love watching him. So I think this is going to be a really great game. I can't wait to see Ty Dieffenbach. I don't think they took a huge step down from Nico Yamaliava when Ty Dieffenbach came into the game, and I can't wait to see Wayne Knight in this one. Hey, man, UCLA's undefeated. It's real. You're in the top 10. Bruin fans, can I get an eight clap? Tripp is back there somewhere. Don't do it too loud, though. You'll just mess up the whole control room. All right, Tripp? You just got to make sure no one else gets screwed up. Everyone's trying to run the show back there. Just keep your eight clap to a minimum. All right, here we go. We move on. Miami at Notre Dame. Tripp's part of our crew, by the way. He went to UCLA. He loves UCLA. Every single time I see him, he's like, what do you think about Bob Chesney? I'm like, yeah, I love it. All right, Miami at Notre Dame, which was sure to be a top five matchup, and now all of a sudden, it's not even a top 10 matchup. Thanks, playoff committee. Joke. I'm not going to do it. I am not going to get back into that mode. Here we go. Deep breaths, everyone. Deep breaths in South Bend. Don't worry about it. You just have a must win now. It wasn't a must win before the playoff committee gave you whatever that was that they gave you. I'm not going to call it what I wanted to call it. I'm going to try to be above board here, but now it's a must win. Notre Dame, you got to win. Gave you that speech yesterday in the program. Maybe you're going to play it. Maybe, Marcus, maybe you're going to play it for the team. I don't know. Maybe it was that impactful. Committee really put Notre Dame behind the eight ball. They are backed into a corner. So. Don't we all expect to get Notre Dame's best? I mean, we have to. We have to because the committee put them into that corner. Now, maybe you could say the schedule did and so on and so forth. But remember, the committee in a roundabout way also put them into this corner because the way that everyone builds schedules now, nobody wants to play Notre Dame because that's a tough non-conference game. And why do we not want tough non-conference games? Because the committee took them out back and shot them. They're extinct. They're going extinct, everybody. We're hunting for the ivory. Is that what they do? Is someone going to be mad at that? That wasn't political nor against animals. I just want everyone to take a deep breath. In this ballgame, I think we would all agree. Notre Dame and Miami. We're all kind of waiting to see like, all right, we want to see these teams in a matchup game. Like, what are you against someone that is equal to you? And that's why we're so intrigued by this game. Now, Miami has taken. They're taking care of business. Notre Dame did not. They got beat by BYU. Yes, there was a second left. They didn't get that snap. And so here we are with their back against the wall. Let's take a look at this game from just like, what's the strongest thing? What's the weakest thing that any of these teams do? Well, if you're looking at weakest thing, I always look at that because in a matchup game, typically the weakest link of any of the teams is what's going to end up getting you beat. And the weakest thing that anybody does in this game is Miami's defense. And we've seen that over the last, what? Three weeks, three, three games, two of the last three games, they've given up 35 points to Florida state and UNC. So it's not a great defense. It is not nearly the defensive front that they had, that they had a year ago. You know, when Bain and Mesidor just wrecking everyone's world off of the edge, that's not that defense anymore. Their secondary is, is not great. So they've got to find a way to limit CJ car, who I think is one of the better quarterbacks that we have in the country. Now, Notre Dame has not run it great. Like they were able to do a year ago with, with price and love. We understand that, but they should be able to throw the football in particular against what I think is, is a pretty weak secondary for Miami. So now let's look at what the strongest part of this game is. What's the strongest part of this game. It's Miami's offense. It's interesting. They've got the strongest part. They've got the weakest part. Their ceiling with their offense is outstanding. I think it's the best thing anybody does in college football. Darian Mintz's film is fantastic. I love watching it. It's interesting. it's only equaled or surpassed by Malachi Tony. When I watch these guys play, man, it's on time. Mensah is on platform. The ball goes to the right spot. It goes to the right spot on the right time. It's accurate. All of the things he does as a quarterback, I love. I really love. They do a good job up front in protection, even if they're not great running the football. And then Malachi Toney's film is off the charts. First of all, you can't defend him. Not like, oh, he's a tough cover. No, no, no. Can't defend him. Not in college. Not even Leonard Moore, who I think is the best corner in college football and probably is going to be a top three or four pick in the NFL draft. I don't think Leonard Moore can cover Malachi Toney. Now, I might eat my words on that one, and maybe Leonard is going to send me the film afterwards, but Malachi Toney creates space every time he runs a route. He might not be the deep threat that some of these other guys are, in particular like a Jeremiah Smith, but when you talk about short area quickness, spatial awareness, toughness in the run game as he's blocking and digging out safeties, this guy plays hard, and I love watching it. I love watching it. It's going to be about 40 degrees at game time. Don't love that for Miami. Do you know, I think I've got a guy, we've got a guy on the crew, Mitch. My man Mitch. Mitch loves Miami. We always talk about Miami. He's on my game crew. And Mitch brought this point up to me. He was like, hey, Miami doesn't win when it's 40 degrees or below. Well, if it's going to be 40 degrees at kickoff time, it's only going to get worse than that after the sun goes down. Night game in South Bend. And weakest part of this whole game is Miami's defense. I'm going to go Notre Dame. I think that they have to win, and they will win. Because again, the committee is doing Miami no favors here by putting, no one puts baby in the corner. Notre Dame 30, 27, Miami, I'll take the five and a half. Even in the cold weather. What do we think? Do you guys like that pick? Leave a comment down below. I don't even know if I like that pick. I offered Steve, Steve is my guy. He's like my right hand. He's my brain. I offered Steve. I was like, Steve, should we just flip coins today? And he was like, no, no, no, no, no, no. Exude confidence. Notre Dame 30 to 27, and I'll take the five and a half. There we go. All right. BYU at Utah. Holy war. BYU is seven. Utah is three. Four and a half is a spread here. Utah is favored. Utah has lost three straight in this series, including a home game. BYU has not looked great. Since the Notre Dame game. I think we would all agree with that. Got beat by UCF, even though there was some weird stuff that happened at the end of that game and then beat Arizona state, but man, that was not great. That was not great against Arizona state. Meanwhile, Utah has been a team that has been very impressive, which is largely why they're ranked number three in the country right now. Cause even though they've played something North of a wet paper bag, the committee decided that they were the third ranked team in the country. That was a shot. It wasn't meant to be. It was meant to be a shot. Cause I love Utah. You know, I love you, Utah death taxes, Utah football. They roared back against Houston after being down 10, nothing at around halftime. They destroyed Cincinnati. They're a difficult team to beat on the road. Uh, when they're in their home stadium, Devin Dampier and way Sean Parker are dynamic. The one concern I would have for way Sean Parker or excuse me, Devin Dampier, the quarterback is the turnovers. He turns the football over too much and you can't do that in this game, not in this game. And, and in particular with an aggressive BYU defense. Dampier has seven turnovers over the last four games. That is going to have to be limited. They've going to have to run the football, play quality defense and use the energy of that stadium to their benefit. LJ Martin for BYU could be back. I don't know how effective he will be, but they need that because they have not been able to run the football very well over the last couple of weeks. Speaking of BYU, both have good defenses, although gosh, I, you know, I love Kalani Sataki. I think Kalani Sataki is fantastic, but his defense the last couple of weeks. Not, it just hasn't been like BYU standard. You know, you come to expect a standard from BYU. It was at that standard against Notre Dame and then against UCF and Arizona state. It just kind of left you just kind of left you wanting something. I personally believe this Utah team has something to prove almost like their coach retired and then took another job somewhere else. It's like, it resembles that. I don't know if that was the case or not, but that's what it looks like. And Morgan Scali has been there for a long time. And he understands the culture of Utah. And I think this team is playing with an edge. I mean, they're up, they're up a million at half at Cincinnati last week. And I know we don't get the same team weekend and week out, but it's hard not to at least pick these games and look at these games with, with, without the past experience being right in your rear view mirror. They played great last week. Will they again this week? I don't know, but I'm going to take them. Utah 27, BYU 20, Utah covers the four and a half. And BYU fans are still upset with me as they always are. Progressive's accident response can contact emergency services. If you're in a major accident, the only thing worse than someone you love being in an accident is not being able to help them. So get peace of mind, knowing your loved ones are protected with progressive's accident response. Learn more at progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates limited availability in California driver is responsible for emergency and towing charges not covered by the policy coverage subject to policy terms and conditions. Georgia at Ole Miss. This one could be a great game. I really think it could be. Georgia is favored by three and a half rematch to that quarterfinal from a year ago. Ole Miss won that one. Trinidad Chambliss was outstanding in that ball game. And I'm sure Kirby smart has had nightmares about Trinidad Chambliss ever since them thinking about this game. And now he's got to go to Oxford and he's got to play Trinidad Chambliss where Trinidad Chambliss has never lost a start. You're not going to do it, Joel, are you? I might. Ole Miss is not going to have Q1 Lacey likely out in this game. He's been battling this shoulder injury ever since, you know, really that what was it? The LSU game. He came back. He played against Missouri. He did really well against Missouri. Got re aggravated that injury against Texas game that they lost on the road. And now it looks like he's not going to be out there and they're better with Q1 Lacey on the field. We all know that. I mean, we all know that. Trinidad Chambliss is, is a guy that I love you guys. I know I've loved him ever since the beginning of the year. And now he gets to face Kirby smart in Georgia. And this team is the best road team that we have in the country over the last several years. Why? Because they're consistent. Why? Because they run the football because they play good defense. These are the things that travel. These are the things that allow you to have success on the road. I do think it's going to be a close game. I don't think Georgia is going to be able to separate in this game, but they're too consistent. They're too consistent. And I don't expect. I don't expect that the dogs to beat the dogs. You see what I did there, Kirby, I took your line and I stole it. And I just think that you're going to, you're going to make it difficult on Ole Miss. If Georgia can hold Miss to hold Ole Miss to field goals. I think that's where the game is won or lost. If it's high scoring, I favor Ole Miss because Trinidad runs wild. If it's lower scoring and in the twenties, then I favor Georgia because it's a slug fest and you're kicking field goals and it's third down and it's situations. What do I think it's going to be more of a slug fest? I'm going to take Georgia 28, 24. They cover the three and a half. On the road. I know, I know I don't like it either, but you know what? Fade me then fade me. See how that works out. Probably. Well, if you're been doing that over the last three weeks, Oregon at Ohio state, Ohio state favored by seven and a half. Interesting. So Vegas likes Ohio state a lot more than the committee does. By the way, Oregon has a path to the big 10 championship game. I know we haven't talked about that a lot on this program, but I know other programs have mentioned it. Yes, that's absolutely the case. And if I were Oregon, I would smell the ball. Blood in the water a little bit. This is not the same Ohio state that you get. Normally, this is not the same Ohio state that came into Eugene a couple of years ago and would eventually win the national championship. And it's certainly not the same Ohio state that you saw in the Rose bowl. And that kind of, you know, blew the hinges off in that game. This is a, what are you going to get type of box of chocolates, Ohio state. I don't know what we're going to get. Luke Fahey is going to start again. How long is the leash for Luke Fahey? Not sure. I don't think he played very well. I know that that's not the sentiment of a lot around that program. I thought the ball went to the wrong spot. A few times he overthrew some open wide receivers and they didn't get the ball to Jeremiah Smith. There were times in that game where he had RPOs where it was one-on-one with Jeremiah Smith and he handed the football off. And I, I know because I watched the film and I saw the arms on the sidelines from coaches go out to the side, like, where's he throwing the ball? So again, I don't think it was just Luke Fahey played fine and everybody else failed against USC. So I don't know how long they would stick with him if it's not going well. And who knows what that crowd would be like if it didn't go well. Rayola led a comeback against Northwestern and they finally started playing better offensively. Remember, it wasn't great until then. Then all of a sudden, you know what, screw it. I'm going all of a sudden from here on out. It's the way I say it and it's just going to be the way it is. So all of a sudden they come back against Northwestern. Rayola looked really good. Remember, Jay Johnson is their new offensive coordinator after they fired Drew Merringer after that Illinois game and they looked a lot better in the second half against Northwestern. This is a very different defense than they're going to face. I think this is a much better secondary and I would think that Matt Patricia for Ohio State is going to find a way to put pressure on Rayola. He does not deal well with pressure. That's when he gets on his back foot. He starts to fade away and then turnovers happen. So we'll see how that impacts him in this game or if they're able to get some pressure on him. If you're Arthur Smith, the offensive coordinator for Ohio State, don't you go down swinging? This is my team. right here it's like Ohio State's backed into a corner typically when you see this you get the full you know Monty full throat all of it you just get all of Ohio State and if you get all of Ohio State that means that you get all of Jeremiah Smith and they're going to be taking shots and they're going to be more aggressive even with a young quarterback because you got nothing to lose the committee doesn't think you're any good so you better go prove that you are you see where I'm going with this and if that happens typically Ohio State goes out there and they play really well think of Tennessee a couple of years ago in the playoff Oregon in the Rose Bowl there are games when they come out and they play really aggressive early in the game Texas earlier this year and they can build a lead I think that that's a the style of game I expect in this one so I'm going to say Ohio State wins this game at home they have to they win at 30 to 20 they cover the seven and a half I'm worried about Rayola with some pressure on him in that game Alabama at LSU Bama LSU always a great game LSU is favored by five and a half over the committee's fifth ranked team oh my goodness you mean Vegas doesn't agree with the committee either no they don't no one does literally no one not even Bama fans maybe Paul I don't know a bad matchup for Alabama in this one I think it's a terrible matchup for Alabama let me tell you why because if Kalen DeBoer gets into a big game typically they throw the football a lot and they don't run it very well and when that happens they have to protect their quarterback and if they can't protect their quarterback they don't win and LSU is a terrific pass running team uh pass rushing team terrific second in the country in sacks meanwhile you would think that Bama on the offensive line would do a good job protecting their quarterback not the case we saw pressure against Tennessee pressure against Georgia and LSU might be better in the pass rush than both of those teams bad matchup I don't think they're going to be able to run the football speaking of Alabama even if the committee thinks that they're like the greatest team thing since sliced bread like did they lose two games no way no way it was like a figment figment of our imagination guys they didn't lose two games no way they beat Mississippi State who was undefeated at the time um each of the last two times that they played LSU in Death Valley Alabama has been held under 70 yards rushing and that's even with better Bama teams and teams that are more willing to run the football again all of this leads to do I think LSU can at least get out of their own way offensively not turn the football over and score some points the answer is yes Levitt is playing better he's taking care of the ball he gets trade as green back you've got some guys back for Alabama I don't know how much they're going to give you Ryan Coleman Williams is going to be back Zabian Brown might be back I just think LSU they're they're going to be a team that's going to be very difficult to beat in this one I've got LSU 30 Alabama 17 LSU covers the five and a half sacks five six seven sacks and that's when Bama doesn't play well let's get to our weekend check-in presented by Hilton when you need a winning team on and off the field it matters where you stay and we check in with Texas at Missouri Texas at Missouri this one should be an interesting game partly because I have no idea who's going to be playing for Texas they are a mash unit right now sark has come out and talked about them being a bit quote undermanned this week let me just roll through a couple of these sark put it this way uh could be without Cam Coleman could be without Ryan Wingo already without Trevor Goosby their left tackle will be without Hollywood Smothers all on the offense two starting corners look like they're going to be out Cade Phillips and Grayson Littleton Colin Simmons status unknown best pass rusher in college football week to week with that ankle he's missed the last two who's going to be out there Arch is going to be out there what do I worry about with Texas that it becomes an art show because when it's an art show it's not great we've been over this when Texas can run the ball play great defense they might be the best team in the country because that's when Arch can take them to their ceiling with the play action pass and he's not being asked to do everything offensively in this game it might be Arch and what else do we got and when you're facing a Missouri team now I don't think Missouri's world beaters on the defensive side I I really don't but this is a team that can run the football and what's Texas going to bring to the table from a defensive perspective up front are they going to be able to stop the run they didn't do a great job against Florida letting their quarterback get loose and obviously we saw what Florida did against Georgia meaning nothing um I'm worried about Texas in this one if it's going to turn into an off game check out these numbers he's been sacked 20 times in the last five games that's tied for the most in the country he's got nine turnovers in six games versus power four teams this year it can't be the art show and I don't know what else is around him so it might have to be the art show I think Missouri is going to be able to run the football Missouri has been struggling when they can't run it so you know that they have to they're going to come in and emphasize it they're going to they're going to start with the run game and I think that that's going to be to their advantage to their advantage I've got Missouri winning the game 21-17 Missouri I'll take the two and a half there Texas is favored only by two and a half probably because of all those injuries this is only Texas's second true road game their other true road game they beat Tennessee yes as a good win wasn't pretty in that one I think they lose this game Missouri 21 Texas 17. uh I'll I'll take the two and a half from Missouri so let's recap the picks um oh Lord please help these be right this week that's where I'm at right now folks I'm going to take the five and a half for Miami even though I think Notre Dame I think Notre Dame probably wins the game Utah I'm going to say covers the four and a half at home they're playing with an edge Georgia covers the three and a half because they're Georgia and I hate betting against Georgia even though Trinidad Chambliss is over there Ohio State because they have to they cover the seven and a half I think they come out and just throw haymakers LSU because they've got the better matchup in this one I think they sat Keelan Russell six seven times they cover the five and a half and I think Missouri wins the game because I don't know what Texas actually has this week and I don't trust Arch to just go win the game on the road I'll take the two and a half from Missouri there we go and there we have it um I really hope those are better than the last three weeks if they're not you can leave a comment down below you can get on my case but you know what we're all doing this together because we love college football uh and I hope you enjoyed the show subscribe if you would follow us on social media that would be great but mostly enjoy college football this weekend and don't go to don't go to a wedding why would you do that progressives accident response can contact emergency services if you're in a major accident the only thing worse than someone you love being in an accident is not being able to help them so Progressive is here to help when you can't so get peace of mind knowing your loved ones are protected with progressives accident response learn more at progressive.com limited availability in California driver is responsible for emergency and towing charges not covered by the policy coverage subject to policy terms and conditions