Week 1 Start Sit Advice (Part 1) | MUST-Start Players & Big Names to AVOID (09/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)
75m 45s
The fantasy football recap from CBS Sports addresses the early-season challenges in the NFL, focusing on key injuries and player performance volatility. AJ Brown's injury and the subsequent drop in a crucial play are highlighted as pivotal moments affecting game outcomes. Darian Price's strong performance in Seattle signals potential value as a fantasy asset, while injuries to key players like Jackson Smith and the uncertainty around wide receiver play raise concerns for fantasy managers. Jamie and Heath present contrasting player picks: Jamie emphasizes Jared Goff, Parker Washington, and Luther Burton due to favorable matchups and target share opportunities, while Heath leans on Justin Herbert and Marsha on Lloyd, citing strong defensive matchups and target volume. The analysis also stresses the importance of situational awareness, especially with quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and tight ends like Dalton Schultz facing tough defenses. Projections show that injuries and offensive line adjustments can significantly impact performance, leading to a cautious approach in fantasy lineups. The episode concludes with a focus on high-value flex options and market trends, like the growing strength of tight end matchups and the risk of underperformance in games with deep defensive schemes. A recurring theme is the difficulty in predicting outcomes when starters are absent, with players like DJ Moore and Jeremiah Love facing tough defensive secondary challenges. Overall, the recap urges fantasy managers to balance confidence in projected matchups with realistic risk assessment, especially given the high volatility in early-season games.
This is fantasy football today from CBS sports It's time to dominate your fantasy league Now here's some combination of Adam Dave Jamie and he Hey, what's going on? Welcome to the show it is Thursday September 10th and we are recapping a football Are you all thrown off? I definitely like yesterday gave me major Thursday vibes. We decided we're never doing that again, right? The Wednesday night football, yes Yeah, I This has been the worst start to the season of all time the worst the last 24 hours Bowers darn old AJ Brown. This just stinks by the way We did a Brock Bowers episode yesterday. So we're just listen to that while recap it briefly later But I'm not going to get into that whole thing today. They'll save us some time But yeah, it's been a bit of rough rough day in the fantasy world, huh? Yeah, and I don't think people are going to react reasonably Here's a comment Drake may more like drop may well don't drop him from your teams But yeah, that Romeo dobs drop certainly changed the game quite a bit Seattle 13 to England 10 today on the show Start or sit for eight AFC home games Tampa Bay at Cincinnati highest projected total of the week Denver at Kansas City, Baltimore at Indianapolis Cleveland at Jacksonville Atlanta at Pittsburgh, Buffalo at Houston, Miami at Las Vegas, and of course the Jets at the Titans The Jets used to be the Titans. Did you know that sure you did? Is that your fact? That's that of the game Stat of the game did you What did you say about Romeo dobs that that his drop really changed the game? That was your response to a discussion about how bad Drake may was No, it was just a separate. Okay, cuz that was okay. It was an interception, right? Yeah, pretty sure the very next pass he threw was intercepted right after the dobs drop was Thank anyway, which was at the first or the second or the third or the fourth quarter that was in the third quarter I believe rolling to you don't remember the play a beautiful. Yes. I remember he dropped the pass Yes, I just didn't think it was one of the the big moments of the game I thought well I could be wrong about the interception, but I think it was followed up by a by a Julian love pick In the middle of the field anyway, all right. The injuries are a major story here to Darian Price basically Defined a trap back last night Hopefully that change is going forward, but Jamie look awesome. What are your Jamie, what are your major takeaways? You're from an injury standpoint with Seattle and New England Well, I think it was good that you still got a great game out of Jackson Smith and the jig bun Hopefully he'll be fine with drew lock if that's going to be the option moving forward I can't imagine that it would not be So, you know, there was a little bit of panic for a good portion of the game. Obviously when you're watching drew lock play But still great player, you know comes through with it a strong performance the end I think he you know kind of just alluded to this like they have to give to Darian Price more opportunities and touches like he's clearly their best running back It was never ever ever about George Hullani being good It was this was the issue was that they were going to try and force somebody else on the field and give somebody else more touches and some high value touches And that's concerned clearly for where to Darian Price the ceiling can go, but you know I think just the bottom line is like this is kind of what we expect to go again These are two great defenses and you know, you lose the best receiver on one side and you lose the quarterback on the other side Like it's not great now you jay Brown was not having a great game before he got hurt So hopefully he's not going to be out for an extended period of time, but it does not sound good for him It does sound a little bit better for for Donald at least But we got last night in terms of a first prognosis on on what his injury could be I thought Price was the one guy from last night that everyone could say they were right Because if you watched him when he had the football he looked awesome and The role concerns that people that didn't want to draft him also looked correct the problem is Not so much for me that Hullani played as much as he did as it looks like Price might be third in line for short yardage touches They they use the manual Wilson there. I think Hullani might be see he just he has a little bit or at least he showed in that game a little bit of the same Ken Walker Oh, look, let's bounce outside I thought on a couple of those right, yes, yes, yes, price. Yeah, he And that's that's what got RJ Harvey in trouble last year so I think you if you drafted price you can be encouraged because he looks so good and if you faded price You can feel like you were right because the role is not very good and here comes X sharpening I think you know It just with with the Patriots run defense it just continued the theme with Milton Williams when he's on the field like They're just really tough to run on in general and so To see him do that you know to average five yards per carry is is encouraging but at the same time like this is a run defense You probably want to avoid if you can as a fantasy manager, you know if you're seeing the Patriots on the schedule like if you have another option You go the other way and generic price did not play a single snap on third now and we didn't see any goal to go But we mentioned the short yardage stuff. He was in on second and short twice But he was not in on the two third and short opportunities. They had obviously that could change But again as he says X sharpening should be back at some point will be at least three more games They're at Arizona next week. That should be a much better matchup for them I could go through you know Why don't we should probably wait till we get an update on Sam Arnold, but I went and I looked Five superstar receivers and what they've done in recent seasons without their starting quarterback Tyree kill in 2022 Jamar chase and Justin Jefferson in 2023 Jamar chase last year and CD Lam in 2024 and Basically three of them three of them which which sample size of Jefferson last year did you know two three years ago I thought he said last year to Jamar chase last year. Oh, Jamar chase last year. Yeah, and and I'm gonna say Jefferson was good with the backup quarterback Jefferson and chase were both great with the backup quarterbacks chase once was Once was not as good as it was with burrow But last year he was with flackle because on pace for over 200 targets But CD lamb had a pretty big drop off Tyree kill had a had a pretty big drop off and Jamar chase one of the two times had a pretty big drop off So it could happen, but you know Hopefully, it's not that long of an injury and also you've got Arizona and Washington as the next two games and that's really favorable for JSM start him Remand Ray played almost every snap had five catches. That's exactly what we want to see while Watch Ray be on Henderson is out now with and we'll finish on this I think with the AJ Brown injury it let's say he misses some time. I mean people might want to drop Romeo dobs and he's 75% roster, I believe What like what do we do here Heath? Is there any player that you like for the Patriots? Can they give Kyle Williams on their chance? No, I don't It was such a weird thing because before AJ Brown got hurt. Romeo dobs wasn't hardly playing He ran fewer routes than Nomura Douglas. He was out there for fewer snaps than Mac Holland's like that he clearly did not impress them in Training camp in the preseason and then to have that type of performance when he was on the field I I'm probably not going to drop Romeo dobs But if we get somebody who's a big waiver wire ad and that's your worst player, I understand if somebody would Maybe Hunter Henry becomes more relevant I know Rareden had to touch down, but Henry had a decent year last year and played a lot of snaps So all right, we can talk about that on the waiver wire show. So I'm going to ask if they can drop or she'd Shaheed you Can Did nothing who per cup looked pretty good on a few plays last night and he had Did he have a touch he had a touchdown called back who per cup. Yep By the way, it was a fourth quarter when dobs had that drop in on the next play that was the interception And that will wrap up our recap of Thursday night football. No, no, no, no, no Today we have Oh, oh Wednesday. Oh gosh, it was Wednesday night. I shouldn't have done the song Oh my gosh, I'm sorry. All right, I'll do it tomorrow. Anyway, we usually have our show on CBS Sports Network noon eastern Tuesdays Thursdays Tuesdays and Thursdays Neither of those shows are airing Well, obviously the Tuesday one didn't or today today showed not airing on CBS Sports Network But it's still going to air on CBS Sports HQ and you can still see it at youtube.com/fantasyfootball today So Tuesday is a waiver wire show Thursday is a rankings start or sit episode And Dave did a great interview with Scott Turner. Please check it out He's gonna do that every Wednesday on our YouTube channel again. It's youtube.com/fantasyfootball today Now here's what we do on Thursdays. We give you three players. We love and three players to avoid Three from Jamie and three from Heath So let's get into players. We love brought to you by stitch fix if you're like me and clothes shopping is not your thing Stitch fix as you covered get styled today at stitch fix.com/football Jamie players you love Jared golf against the Saints Parker Washington against Cleveland and Luther Burton at Carolina. Let's start with Jared golf Gov has started the week Love the setup for him taking on the Saints. I think again anytime he's home We're going to be excited about it. He scored at least 21.2 fantasy points and four of his last five home games and Detroit last year And average 23.9 points over that span this game is expected to be one of the higher scoring games of the week 48 and half points Was the last project the total that I saw and nine quarterbacks had multiple touchdowns against the Saints defense last season Including four with at least three total touchdowns So I think Jared golf has an opportunity to get off to a great start We've been hyping him up as one of the best late round quarter
back. Cause I think for week one, he's got top five upside. I see heath is right there with me at number six, sports line at number six. Dave's a little behind. So excited just about Jared Goff's ceiling for this week. Wouldn't surprise me if he's QB one, based on how things can go. Parker Washington against Cleveland is bothering with all that Cleveland was second. No third best against receivers. No, no, it's a much different defense without Miles Garrett. There are no Jared versus a good pass wrestler, but he's not Miles Garrett. And so I think we'll have Trevor Lawrence with more time. And look, what Washington did last season, not sustainable, but coming off that stretch that he had at the end of the year, going into the off season, the way that you performed in training camps, still chasing a new contract. I think it sets up for him to lead the team in targets. And I do expect him to have a big role. I don't think he comes off the field. So as they cycle in Travis Hunter for whatever offensive snaps you plays, as we see Jacobi Myers and Brian Thomas, I think Washington should be the constant and a guy that Trevor Lawrence leans on. So he's got top 20 upside for this week, if not more. And finally, I'm sorry, who is your sister, Berden? For Berden, we're waiting to find out what's going to happen with Romo Dunze. I think I said this yesterday. There's two scenarios here. One where Berden is really good. One where Berden is an absolute superstar. So you're starting him no matter what happens with Odunze. I think we could see maybe a top 10 finish for Berden last year when there was no Odunze on the field. I think it was only three games that Berden played of the five that are four, excuse me, four games that Odunze missed at the end of the season. And Berden was fantastic. So the target share will be there. The opportunity will be there. We know that he was headed toward a big season. We know that he has an opportunity to be a go-to guy for Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, Lovesom, and I think fantasy managers got a discount because of the groin injury. And now you're going to just start him with confidence. I was surprised to start percentage wasn't as high as it probably will be by the time we get to Sunday. But this is somebody that you may have drafted. In some cases, as a third receiver, get him in your line up no matter what. If you got to play him as flex, you got to play him as a starting receiver. Again, if Odunze is out, he may be a top 10 receiver this week. I was looking at some receiving lines yesterday. And they already, they do have one for Odunze. So I think they're probably expecting him to play. But Luther Berden has the highest yardage over under on the bears, 56 and a half. So it's a pretty good sign. This is a pretty interesting game to me this. And we'll talk about it more tomorrow. Carolina and Chicago because Carolina had a had an average defense last year. And they should get a lot better. I mean, they spent a lot of money. They got Jaylin Phillips on the defensive line. And they've got JC Horn who sometimes shadows guys. It's not going to be Luther Berden. He shadows. If he does shadow, anyone, it's going to be Romo Dunze. I would almost, I would think with, you know, confidence there. So who do you like better Parker Washington or Luther Berden? Man, I mean, it's easy burden. If there's no Odunze with Odunze expected to play as him now, I probably still would lean burden but it's close. All right. Here's a tough one that'll transition into heaths players here. Parker Washington or Chris Godwin. So I think that one's probably tougher for me than it is for others because I've got Godwin one spot ahead of Parker Washington or two spots ahead of Parker Washington. I think they're in very similar spots. This is a bigger move for Godwin than it is for Washington for me because I had Washington kind of in this range all along. But I think very, very good number three wide receiver. Jamie said top 20 upside. I believe that exists for both Godwin and Parker Washington. Bucks should be throwing a lot chasing the score against the bingles. I believe that game has the highest over under on the slate. And we don't know that a mecca book is 100% all the way certainly expecting to play. Okay. So if you have these guys, Luther Berden, Chris Godwin and Parker Washington, you can start them over. Jamie's going to tell you DJ more. He might want to get away from any backfield. That's kind of iffy. Like you'd start those guys over the Steelers running backs, right? Even though they have a good setup. And PPR easily. Yes. Yeah. I think I had doubt all on my, he's not on this list. He's on my later list. But I'd probably start out all over them, not burden. Okay. All right. He's Justin Herbert against Arizona. You like look at you. Love him. Yeah. I was. I think I'm the only person that could put this on my list because everybody else just kind of viewed him as a starter during draft season. I was a little bit more skeptical and will be probably again later in the season. But against the Arizona Cardinals with the second highest over implied team total on the slate. He is my number two quarterback. I am the Justin Herbert guy. I think they will be able to do whatever they want against this Arizona defense. So I, this doesn't mean I'm down on them where I am. And he's a top 10 running back. I'm happy to start Lad Maconkey and Quentin Johnston. Wheels up for the chargers. All right. Yeah. You've got Herbert's second. Jamie has him third and Dave has actually him night. Everyone has Herbert has to start. Look at this heath's profile on X now. Chiefs fan chargers hater. But Herbert, QB two, my homes, QB 22. I love it. That's a typo. It says chargers realist. Can't be a chargers hater. She's a realist. Okay. Just being real about the chargers is hitting on them. Okay. And I guess you're sitting Patrick with homes as well. But there's one other guy that you want to start. And this one, this one I really struggle with because you know I have a lot of him. But I hate the fact that he's at Minnesota. But Marsha on Lloyd, you're saying is a start this week. Yeah. And I know there's been talk about the committee. And I expect there will be a committee there. Most teams have some sort of a committee. But this is a team that had 22 running back rush attempts per game last year. I think we see Marsha on Lloyd be it probably 15 of them, maybe 14 of them. And while he may not, he may give up third downs to Chris book, Brooks, I still think he probably catches a few passes. They liked his profile. Early down passes from Marsha on Lloyd. So he's an RB 2 for me this week. He was one of the guys and listen, we just saw it with you, Darian Price. So it may be the same thing where he looks good, but it doesn't have enough touches. But he was one of the guys that I had ranked kind of as an RB 3 or flex and draft season that week one, the guy they're mostly going to be sharing with isn't there. I'm starting them. You know, what's interesting is that a manual Wilson last year on the Packers had two games as a feature back. And both of them were against Minnesota. And one time he had 28 carries 107 yards and two touchdowns and two catches for 18 yards for a 26 and a half point game. And the other time is week 18. He had 18 carries for 44 yards. I'm thinking maybe he didn't have his starters with him. Maybe the backups were playing 18 carries for 44 yards, one catch for four yards, but you know, 18 or more carries in both games. All right. So again, Jamie loves golf. Parker Washington and Luther Burton. He has Herbert. We're going to pin that March on Lloyd and Chris Godwin. And thank you to StitchFix for sponsoring today's players. We love StitchFix takes the hassle out of close shopping. Just take a quick style quiz, share your size, your vibe and your budget. And you'll be matched with a real human stylist who will send you a first fix with clothes that fit and make sense for your life. Stop shopping and get style today at stitchfix.com/football that's stitchfix.com/football. And we come back. We'll tell you who we're avoiding. We'll go through the news and notes. We'll do one question for each game and we'll get into it on fantasy football today. I'm going to talk to you right now about Omaha stakes. And this is a perfect time for me to do it because just last night I cooked four Omaha stakes for my family and they were awesome. And we completely devour them. And tonight Omaha stakes burgers and hot dogs for the family. They also have seafood and side dishes. They have so many things at Omaha stakes. If you want affordable, easy to make delicious food, Omaha stakes is honestly a no brainer. 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He's placing Denver without his left tackle. I'm the high guy. Oh, man. What do you have in 20th or something? Mahomes 20th. Yeah. I just, I just think against this defense and this past rush to already be, I mean, we've seen from Justin Herbert last year what an impact not having an offensive tackle can have on a quarterback. I just think he's back folks. This is too much to ask of Mahomes magic. I do not want to start. Okay. You're also avoiding the Panthers running backs. It looks like Jonathan Brooks is going to play the Panthers running backs against the Bears. It looks like both of them are going to play. And honestly, anybody that's doing a projection on how many touches these guys are going to get in week one is guessing. And that includes
me because I do projections. And so I think you just have to kind of guess a 50/50 split. Maybe one of them gets into the in zone. Maybe one of them gets hot in the first half and they get a two to one ratio in the second half. But until we get more clarity on how the touches are going to be distributed, they're both flexes at best. Carnal Tate against the Jets is a sit for you. Another one is just kind of like let's see it. I think you've got enough of a. I think that the concerns about the preseason for the Titans, the commanders, and the giants probably overblown. I'm still hopeful for Carnal Tate this year, but the other thing we don't know is Brand Able's got his guy in one Dale Robinson. If we're going to throw him the ball eight times a game, it's going to be hard for Carnal Tate to be good. Yeah, you know, the. If you look at the worst secondaries in the NFL according to PFF, just their guess at the five worst secondaries. Four of them are facing each other. The Jets Raiders and the Dolphins Titans, sorry, the Jets Titans and the Dolphins Raiders. And it's like, I wish the quarterbacks were better. So we can stream those quarterbacks to the best matchups arguably have the. Malik Willis is someone we could use, but it's also it's Geno Smith and it's Kurt Cousins and it's Gam Ward and whatever. And I'll say like if you're in a three what and we all agree based on the rankings, but if you're in a three wide receiver PPR league and you start a flex, Tate might be the perfect guy to throw into the flex and just hope that we're wrong, but you don't want to be trusting him. All right. And Jamie, how about DJ Moore? This is a higher end guy that we're trying to get. I don't know if we're trying to get away from him. Might have to, but might have to start DJ Moore, but he's at Houston. Just a tough matchup. You know, he faced them in 2024 when he was doing well with the Bears six catches 53 yards on 10 targets. So opportunities were there and he did not perform. This secondary is just amazing. You know, he. I don't know if he's going to get shadowed by Stingley, but you got Lassander, you got Petri, you got just a good group there. You got a very dominant pass rush. Josh Allen, not the best history against the Texans. So I just think DJ Moore is a good number three receiver for this week. So in two or three or really because I would sit him and I'll give you just a scenario here. You know, Heath mentioned or one of you mentioned, you know, just in terms of. I think you're talking about Chris Godwin chasing points like I wouldn't be surprised if Kenneth Gainwell has a better game than DJ Moore and PPR just because I think just the catches that he'll have in that shootout would not surprise him. Like that's one I'm struggling with myself just because I think Gainwell's going to have a good game. So just a little bit nervous about DJ Moore. Start as season schedule could be a little tougher. Definitely. So you're struggling with Kenneth Gainwell versus DJ Moore. How about Jeremiah Love versus Kenneth Gainwell? Would you go that far? So we got to figure out what the. We got to wait to see what the status is for Jeremiah Love. Sounds like he's trending in the direction of playing. How much will play remains to be seen coming off the ankle injury that happened in early August. So the timeline put him on schedule to play in week one. And as we know, this is not going to be an easy match up for him. Heath already talked about this that the Cardinals chasing points. Like why would you run him out there full for too many snaps after what you did to him in the preseason game against Raiders when you played him too many snaps in what was a meaningless game. So if they're chasing, I would imagine Jeremiah Love doesn't see a lot of time late in the game. I'm just concerned about his overall performance and health more so than I think the match up and the match up is not great. So Jeremiah Love at best is a flex. I would probably still start him over Gainwell, but that's another close one. Yeah, by the way, that's an AFC home game, but that one we're going to save for tomorrow. There are more AFC home games than NFC on the slate this week, especially since two of the NFC home games are yesterday and today. So we've got as sits, we've got Jeremiah Love, DJ Moore and Christian Watson at Minnesota. That must be tough for you because I know how much you like Christian Watson. Yeah, I just don't love the match up here against the Vikings. This is, you know, Heath was talking about Martha Lloyd and kind of what I fear which sort of is going to sound like I'm being a little hypocritical here. I'm concerned about Lloyd because I think we're going to see a bad Green Bay defense to start the season and not that this Minnesota offense is dominant, but it's a little surprising that they're favored even though they're at home. If they're chasing points here, that's going to be lots. I think it's going to hurt Lloyd, but I also think that this secondary is just so amazing. Now he hasn't played them very much in his career because he's missed a lot of time, but his best game against them was 9.9 PPR points. And so I just fear that if he does not score, we're looking at a little bit of a disappointing stat line. So just not really loving the Packers offense general in this game. I know the Vikings defense is turning over a little bit, some different faces over there. It's still Brian Flores. They're still going to create a lot of havoc. They're still going to make things tough on Jordan Love. So I love the Packers passing game for the majority of the season. I don't love them in this week one game at Minnesota. I mean, it's absolutely amazing that the Minnesota Vikings gave up one touchdown pass in their last eight games to end the season. And that was two games against the Packers, although week 18 was Clayton Tune. So yeah, I'd go back to that in a manual Wilson thing. But that was Jared Goff through it. The only touchdown. Dak Press got didn't throw a touchdown. Jordan Love didn't throw a touchdown. Caleb Williams didn't throw a touchdown. Weeks 11 through 18, one touchdown pass against the Vikings. All right. So it's a recap. Players to avoid for Heath and for everyone, Patrick Mahomes against Denver. Heath wants to avoid it. Kind of a wait and see mode for the Panthers running backs and Carl Tate. Jamie is would like to get away from DJ Morphe can Jeremiah Love at the Chargers and Christian Watson at Minnesota. Your news and notes here. We'll update you on some week one stuff. Aston Gentie practice in full. Sean Tucker mispractice. Alvin, Alvin Camara and Kendrick Miller, Heath. They both practiced. Yeah. Is this like, oh, I took Travis Hantu early. I am not there yet because part of my concern was not just how much time Camara was going to miss, but he had already lost a step. It seemed. And if he's coming back from this injury, is he still the same guy? So I think Travis Hanz in RB two, it's just whether he's a great RB two or an okay RB two. And I've actually gotten like a lot of, not a lot of, but some criticism for the HN pronunciation. I don't really know what to say at this point. That's just how he pronounces his name. I think there were a lot of people who kind of tuned in late August for the first time and heard it. And we're like, what is this guy doing? That's just that's how he pronounces it. I'm not going to disrespect the guy. I'll do my best to sometimes I say Travis ETN H and just to make sure we're all on the same page, but that's why I thought my team name was so great. What is it? ZHN like HN. Yeah, that's horrible. I saw it and I was like, what is this? This is your body. Tomas problems again. Somebody actually said it's the greatest name since that since you money, money, Tomas problems. Why is that a bad one compared to what you wanted to. So you're telling me there's a chance. It's just, but spelled like ETN with a CE at the end. That is brilliant. It's smooth. What's yours again? Say HN like HN. But it's ETN and then HN. So people, I'm trying to educate the masses with my team name. Yeah, he eats as much better than yours. No, mind his club. He's just, he's just a sentence like a normal, there's nothing. Okay, wide receiver. And you're saying Z, right? Not say. Yeah, say for safe players. Oh, okay, then it's great. Malik neighbors practiced in full, but John Harbott did not commit to him playing Sunday night. Let's, let's find out before Sunday night. He's probably going to play I would think at this point. A mecca Buka practice in full. Jaylen McMillan was limited. Alec Pierce expected to play Romo Dunzay was limited. Kenyan Sedeek practiced in full. I wonder if he gets out there. Rookie tight end first round pick for the Jets. And we talked about Brock Bauer yesterday. Heath and Jamie really like Michael mayor. You can pick him up. John Johnson, of course, is an option, but he's not that available. Dalton Schultz is 51% rostered. Greg Dolsich as of yesterday was about 26% rostered. I know we said this yesterday. Bauer's missed five games last year. Mayor played in three of them. The average 13.9 PPR points in those three games. Yeah, it's pretty good. And they've got the dolphins who were 30th against tight ends last year and have arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. On the offensive line, we think that Josh Simmons for the Chiefs is going to miss this week's game. And I won't get through the, I won't go through any. There's not a lot of defensive stuff here, but Namdae Mountabuke might play. He was limited in practice for Baltimore. That'd be big for them. All right, some weird streaks. Will they continue? Trevor Lawrence has scored 23 or more points in six point for passing touchdown leagues in eight straight games. Going back to last season. Tampa Bay allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four straight games. Okay, Cincinnati, Eric, all you're up. The Jets did not have an interception last year. How about this for a few? Have Garrett Wilson. Tennessee allowed 15 or more fantasy points to a wide receiver in nine of their last 10 games. And how about this? A few of Tyler Warren. Uh-oh. In Baltimore's last nine games, only one tight end had more than 35 yards. And it was Pat Friarmuth. Mostly easy competition, though. So those are some stupid streaks. And we'll see if they continue in 2026. Well, time now for one question for each game. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. Are we starting everyone? I'll send this to you, Jamie, including Kenneth Gainwell. I mean, it depends on, you know, it's week one. So you don't necessarily have to start a player like Gainwell, but he's going to be involved in a passing game. And this run defense could be great for Cincinnati. So if they're chasing points, my guess is we see a lot of kind of Gainwell. So he is a definite flex play. Obviously like Bucky better, though. I do like Bucky better. Yeah. Okay. And Baker may field certainly over my homes. Any other quarterbacks that you'd start may feel the overall.
that might be surprising. Bernie. Bernie's a good one. I had him ranked ahead of May. Okay. Denver at Kansas City. He started to sit JK Dobbins. I would rather he's kind of right in the gain well range for me. I wouldn't mind flexing him. I don't really want to start him. I think he should have an opportunity to have probably 16 carries in this game. I'm not sure if he will catch a pass and I'm not sure how efficient he will be against the Chief's defense. Would you start Dobbins or a Panthers running back? Dobbins for me. Baltimore's at Indianapolis. Jamie Josh Downs or Alec Pierce. Downs. You know, I don't know how much Pierce will play his usual snap count. Just getting still ramped up from the foot injury. So my hope is that Downs is the leading receiver for the Colts this week. And maybe they're leading receiver all season. Not necessarily pass catcher because of Tyler Warren. But I think Downs is just a safer play this week. Cleveland's at Jacksonville. Facial Tutton or Quinch on Judd can see who's the best running back in this game. I mean, the true answer is you could flip a coin. I think there are two spots apart in my rankings and a quarter of a point apart in my projections. But if I had to start one, I would go with Quinch on Juddkins. I think that you're probably not going to get a good rushing average from Juddkins in this game. But what we're hoping is that some of the training camp and preseason talk about. We don't really want to take this guy off the field comes to fruition. Maybe he catches three passes and make us feel a lot better about him rest of season. Yeah, the answer to who's the best running back in this game is obviously going to be Chris Rodriguez. Just to stick it to all the fantasy managers. But two very good run, you know, Jacksonville actually had one of the best run defenses in football last year. You know, who the best rookie running back in week one was last year. Dylan Samson. It was Dylan Samson. So, yeah, Juddkins was coming back from the all field issues. Didn't get a lot of snaps or did he maybe even play? I forget. Anyway. Oh, Basel Tutton, Quinch on Juddkins versus let's say, Marshawn Lloyd. Who do you like better? Who's your favorite? Lloyd for me. Jamie. It would go Tutton, Juddkins. Lloyd. How about Chris Godwin and Parker Washington. Those guys, those wide receivers that we like, would you start them over these running backs? All of them. Over the running backs. Okay. I just fear game script for Juddkins the most because there's such heavy underdogs. And he scored one touchdown and losses for them last year. Atlanta Pittsburgh, which Steelers players are you confident in in this game, Jamie? They're defense. Confident is tough with this team because the backfield both could be great. Both could be, you know, one could be terrible. I think some one of the two will have a a solid stat line could be the touchdown. Probably because I don't think they're chasing points here. I would lean toward that. I'll if I had to pick one of the two running backs for this week. I'd lean toward Metcalfe over Pittman just because of his familiarity with Aaron Rodgers. And the fact that he got back at least to practice a little bit sooner than Pittman did with both battling injuries. But none of them are must start guys. I just think that they're all good flex options, meaning both running backs and Metcalfe as flexes. I would probably sit in Pittman unless you're just stuck. Buffalo at Houston. Who is the better Dalton tight end in this game, Heath? So I prefer Dalton Schultz in terms of a median projection. And I think like if you wanted to dream about Dalton concade playing 75 to 80% of the snaps, then he might have a little bit more upside. But Schultz is my favorite. And does anyone care when you look at last year's stuff? Does anyone care that Buffalo was the best team against tight ends? If they hadn't changed their entire defensive system, I would care a lot more. I still care just because the personnel for the most part is the same. And I would, if this was, I liked Dalton Schultz. I think he's got a great opportunity about Jayne Higgins there. If this was a better tight end, no offense to Dalton Schultz, I'd be a lot more confident in it. You know, I just think that this is a low scoring game where we don't get a lot of production. And it's start the guys that feel safe. And to me, the only guy that feels safe for the Texans is really Nico Collins. Maybe David Montgomery, but that's about it. Yeah, do you like David Montgomery better than the, the Tutan in Judkins? Yes. Okay. This was a terrible run defense last year, but it did not have Ed Oliver. He only played two games. It was terrible with Ed Oliver, but that was against Derek Henry and B. John Robinson. But this is one of the worst bills are one of the worst run defenses last year. But again, they should be healthier this year. Miami's at Las Vegas. Would you start tray Tucker over DJ Moore? Not there yet. I'm so close. I'm sorry. I think I have him back to back. Wow. At what point in your rankings? Right around 30. Okay. And the Jets are at the Titans. Starters it Tony Pollard, Jamie. Flex right in the same range as the Steelers guys. You know, it's a game that they have a chance to win. So hopefully he's going to get a lot of carries. I guess I would guess that the Titans try to take some pressure off of Cam Ward and not make him have to throw and just kind of get some comfortable, comfortable throws and comfortable opportunities. You know, based on how the preseason went for them. So Pollard coming off a game, a end of season, stretchery average, a hundred yards per game and his final five scored two touchdowns over that span. I think any time that they have a chance to be competitive or win a game, you're going to feel more comfortable with Tony Pollard. So low end number two, running back at best. Yeah. So I think when you look at the running backs that were drafted and you know, let's say rounds five and beyond, but Texans, let's say Montgomery Pollard. Obviously we saw price and Stephenson last night. Basel Tutton. Yeah. The Steelers guys, the Panthers guys are at least Jonathan Brooks. Maybe you throw more Sean Lloyd in there. Do we want to mostly wait and see with that group? Who are you confident in with that group? Confidence the wrong word. I rank them Lloyd Steelers, Pollard Tutton, Montgomery. Roughly the same. Okay. Yeah. So if you have a wide receiver that you took like maybe a Quentin Johnston, obviously a Chris God much better than those guys. Yeah. Yeah. You're not worried about the game script for Quentin Johnston, like Justin Herbert throwing 23 times. I would worry more about that for Lad because he needs the higher target volume than Johnston does to have a good day. All right. All right. Well, let's go to Tampa Bay at Cincinnati. A lot of starts in this game Baker Mayfield 12 for Jamie 14th for Dave 16th for Heath. And you know, honestly, I kind of talked about this game. What are you going to say? You're going to start all your bangles. You're not going to start Eric All. Is anybody going to start Kate Otton against the team that has been bottom three against tight ends? Three straight seasons and the worst team against tight ends. Two straight seasons. He's a tough sell, I think, to people that are looking at Michael Mayer because of what the projections will say when you go to your free agent. However you pick up your free agents, you know, if you look into projections, Mayer is going to be the highest ranked guy understandably so. And then you look at Dalton Schultz and maybe John Johnson still available and the sliding scale. But yes, if you're just chasing matchups, the problem is that we've seen what Kate Otton has been when everybody's healthy and it seems like everybody's going to be healthy. Will they play a mecca Buka Hostful Snapshare, Jalen McMillan, a full snap share? That's the question we don't have an answer to yet. So I think if you're just saying, oh, bleep, I don't have bowers and I couldn't get mayor because somebody was a jerk in their league. Me that didn't need mayor and still pick them up. You can take a chance on just matchup and you're right. The matchups should still be very good. Even though they've made some great changes, you know, mostly on the defensive front. That being said, you know, it's still going to be a secondary that you can have some success against, especially at this position. Yeah, so they they lost Trey Hendrixson Cincinnati, but they added Dexter Lawrence. And John and Alan, don't forget that too. Yeah, yeah, and he was a big part of the Vikings last year. So, all right, just just for this game, you know, I'm not going to go through like we have enough games to get to start your bangles. But I will just say that I could see the Bucks run defense being a lot better than it was last year because Elijah Kancy had a normal snapshot in one game last year. It was week one and they held B. John Robinson to two yards per carry. So he's an important player for them, and they could chase Brown. If he gets off to a slow start, don't panic because the Bucks could have a good run defense. So they did, however, allow the most receiving yards per game you're running back. So start your bangles, you know that. You've already talked about Chris Goblin. Is Chris Godwin your favorite Bucks receiver this game? Yes, I still have a Buka higher. Where do you have them, Heath? Buka is a low end wide receiver two, and Godwin is a high end wide receiver three. And Jamie, you have a Buka 28th. Dave has a Buka 38th right now, but he could be one that people have a lot of questions about. The DJ Turner thing, I mean, he could get shadowed by Cincinnati's best corner back at mecha Buka them talking about here. So I think just in the case of somebody like a Buka and Jeremiah love. And, you know, for me like a DJ Moore who I just don't love, but you drafted high. Any of these players that you drafted in the first four or five rounds, maybe six or seven rounds depending on how, you know, before you want to go with this. It's hard to sit those players. So unless there's just significant injury news or overwhelmingly great roster, you're probably going to see these guys start. And so like it was surprising when I, when I referenced this earlier.
and I think you saw if you're watching YouTube, Luther Burton's start percentage is 67%. I'm gonna guess he might still have an entry tag next to him, just because, oh no, the injury report ran, so he practiced and full, I think. So that's not be the case anymore. You're most likely playing these players. Judarian price, right? You drafted him in probably the fourth or fifth round. I have him in about seven leagues. I think I started him in four of them, reluctantly. I have him as a sit and start sit. So it's not like I was confident in Judarian price. It's just hard to get away from these players early in the season. So you see Trey Tucker go off against Miami's defense. Next week, Trey Tucker is probably starting over somebody that's enough questionable spot. So DJ Moore, for example, those type players, it just a matter of, I think what your team looks like more than anything else. - But it is, so I don't think a book, he's 88% started right now, but it's worth noting. Like the Seattle, Cincinnati is allowed the second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers last year. - Everybody ran on them though. Not only that, everybody threw the tight ends on them. They saw the fewest wide receiver targets per game and the most tight end targets per game. They also only face two top 12 wide receivers last year. I'm on the same brown and Zay Flowers twice. So they had pretty easy competition. But I would say again, if a Buka doesn't have a big game and DJ Turner's on him, then again, don't panic. It can be a tough match up this game. You like Bertin or a Buka better? - Bertin, Bertin. - All right. By the way, if you're in the chat right now, and you have questions about these games, like this one, Chris Godwin or Jacobi Kroski Merritt or Jonathan Brooks, I mean, that's definitely Godwin. - Godwin. - Yeah. - Easy. - All right. - We gotta talk Bucky. - What'd you say? - Yeah, Bucky for sure and Baker. And we'll take a breaker after that. But what do you think about Bucky? He's a low end number two running back basically for everyone. - He's a low end number two running back. He will move up a few spots 'cause it's really crowded in terms of the projections there. He will move up a few spots for me if Sean Tucker is out 'cause that will remove one of two guys that could steal carries inside the five. Now, last year Sean Tucker had nine of those, Kenneth Gainwell had eight of those and Bucky Irving had zero of those. So it doesn't guarantee us that Bucky's going to get those co-line carries. It couldn't be Gainwell. But I will bump him up just a little bit. So a borderline RB2 right now, probably a mid RB2 if there's no Sean Tucker. I think the few things taken to account, this may end up being a run defense. We want to avoid intense natty as the season progresses because I do think the additions that they made are gonna be significant and change how this team looks. I also think as he's just alluded to, Sean Tucker not being there is huge. Bucky last year got off to such a great start that everybody that drafted him early was rewarded and then he got hurt after week four and was never the same player. This offensive line is definitely better because they're healthy. And so given the point total, given the Tucker most likely absence, 'cause it sounds like that's the way it's trending. And I think the fact that he's in a good standing right now in terms of where he's at, this should be one of the more fun games that you want pieces up. So hopefully you get the Bucky Irving that a lot of people were starting to draft in round four. We were moving up as the off season progressed. And I think he could be really good even though the match up may not be great. All right, Bucky Irving, Bucky Irving question here in the chat. Bucky Irving or Deandre Swift? - Oh, Swift. - Kenneth Gainwell or Rashad White? - Gainwell. - Yeah. - Chris Godwin or Christian Watson? - Godwin. - Mecca Buka or Christian Watson? - Buka. The Buka. - Okay. And Baker Mayfield, I see you guys have him again, 12th for Jamie, 14th for Heath, 12th for, no wait, sorry. - 12th for me. - 16th for me. - Yeah, 12, 14th 16 for Jamie Dave and Heath. So he's back to back with Purdy for you and Dave Heath. So he's right in that range. He's, Jamie's got Jamie Daniels, one spot ahead of Mayfield. That's a tough one there. Anyway, he's a decent start if you got him. You guys like him better than Tyler Schuck? - Yes, I prefer Schuck. - For Schuck, okay. All right. - Baker also, similar to Bucky, got off to a great start last year. - Yeah, I mean, again, I'll give this that one last time. 28 game stretch from 2023 week 14 to week six of 2025. Baker Mayfield averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game. That's better than Drake May last year. That's a 28 game stretch of him being really, really good. All right. That is Cincinnati and Tampa Bay. We're hoping for a lot of points there. When we come back, Denver at Kansas City, I don't think we're gonna get as many points there. We'll take a break and get two more games after this. Okay, Bonix against the Kansas City Chiefs. You definitely like him better than Patrick Mahomes. I remember the Chiefs, good defense last year, but they lost both of their starting cornerbacks and Sharp football analysis and PFF have the Chiefs Secondary Rank 23rd or worse. Which, of course, they're just projecting. We don't know, but that's the perception right now. Would you start Bonix or Baker Mayfield? - Baker. So I do not like Bonix more than Patrick Mahomes. - You do what? - No. - Really? I'm sorry, I figured Mahomes was so low for you. You don't like Nick's this week? - No, I don't like Nick's this week. - Well, why? I mean, it's different Chiefs defense. He's got Jalen Waddle. - He's going to Arrowhead on Monday night. First game, where we get to find out if he's going to run as much coming off of the ankle injury. And his team has an implied total of like 20. - Okay. What bet can we make on this one? No. No, I'm not interested. So who are the-- - How about you do your hair like Bonix? Or I could probably do that too. Just get a haircut first. - Who are we excited about in this game? - Ah, see, you're starting rice, even though stuff match up. You're starting Kelsey most likely because of the position that he plays. You're obviously starting Ken Walker. - Well, just start mayor or Kelsey. And by the way, Denver is good as they were last year. They were just fine. The last two years, they've been in elite defense. They've been average against tight ends. - I'm most likely starting mayor over Kelsey. - I am. - Yeah, and Rishi Rice was really pretty bad in tough matchups last year, but it's like you have to start him. You're starting with Rishi Rice. Not starting with-- - Ken Walker too. - What's that? - Ken Walker too. - Right, again, if Ken Walker is a bad game because he's playing the Denver Broncos, so be it, you deal with it. Jalen Waddle, how about Jalen Waddle versus Chris Godwin and Ameka Buka? Who do you like best? - I like Jalen Waddle the best. - I do have Waddle. I got it at a Buka Waddle, Godwin right now. - Yeah, nothing that the Chiefs did last year against wide receivers. I think even is relevant just without that. - Well, it just depends on how much of it you think, like the Chiefs have changed corners a few times in the last four years. It's pretty often their best corner goes and gets a big mega deal somewhere else. One of them's back on the team now, Ligeria Sneed. So you gotta give Spag some of the Chris. So I think it matters a little bit. - Okay. Plus their pass rest should be better. I mean, you know, all the capital that they spent on it and we'll see how the Denver offensive line holds up. This just feels like a low scoring game. You know, like we kind of got an example of it last night with, you know, two great defenses. You know, I think the Chiefs are working progress, obviously, but like he said, it's an arrowhead. It's typically going to be a tough place to play. I think they'll keep the game close enough that it's not easy for the Broncos. - And that's the thing is like, I feel the same way Jamie did when he said, I think they'll keep the game close enough. I wanna make sure this is still true, but last I looked, the Broncos are two and a half point underdogs. - Yeah, someone texted me yesterday and said, what's wrong with Heath? 10 points, a 10 point win is stomping. I think that's what I said. I think they're going to stop. The Broncos are going to stop the Chiefs and win by 10. That's a stop. - A stomping is at least a three score win. - Okay. - You get a, yes. 10 point win is not a stomping. - Coral and Sutton or Brian Thomas Jr., a good question there. - I would go BTJ, but it's close. - BTJ for me. - Rishi Rice or Parker Washington? - Right now it's rice, but I may change it. - Rice for me? - Justin Herbert or Bonex? - Yeah. - Guys, QB2 and QB24. Pretty easy for me. - It's Herbert for both of them. RJ Harvey, Mark Andrews, Jucoricrosky Merit, Kyle Manongai, pick one. - I probably take a chance on Andrews here. - I believe I have Bill. - Okay, so Cortland Sutton or J.K. Dobbins, I'll ask you that, who's a better flex? - Sutton and PPR, Dobbins and anything else. - Agreed. - If you have a wide receiver or a player that you just don't like, DJ Moore, Jonathan Brooks, they're probably on a different scale. But where does Sutton factor in with those guys? Is Sutton a guy you can throw in there as a flex if you don't like someone that you're usually starting? - I would not. - No. - Okay. Okay, Travis Kelsey or George Kittle tonight? - Kelsey. - Kelsey, but neither one of them are top 12. - Travis Kelsey or Johan Johnson? - Johnson. - Still Kelsey with us close. - Is there anything else you want to say about J.K. Dobbins before we move on? - This is one of these discovery games, right? He's kind of alluded to it. We don't know what we'll get from Dobbins if the goal line work is still going to be.
be his. He didn't score a lot of touchdowns last year, which kind of capped a lot of great performances for him. He's not going to be an obvious passing on situations. And so if we're getting three guys touching the ball here, it could be just frustrating across the board. So if he scores, you'll be okay. If he does not score, my guess is you're getting maybe seven or eight points. Can we get a YouTube poll is a 10 point win, a stomping? I'd love to see what the people think. Start the Broncos DST and try to avoid the Chiefs DST there outside the top 12. Baltimore is at Indianapolis. That's that of the game that might be meaningless, but might not. The Ravens allowed the most completions of 20 or more yards last year and the most completions of 20 or more ariards. They have what it's honestly has been one of the most overrated second areas in the NFL. There's a lot of talent there, but two years in a row, they just get shredded. So Baltimore is probably pretty easy here. It's Jackson, Henry and Flowers that your started the charges allow last year. In what big plays? Yeah. I'll look for you. But Mark Andrews, you want to just hit Baltimore real quick with Mark Andrews Jamie and how you feel about him? You know, on starter, you know, you we didn't really hear much this off season about. Mark Andrews looks great or Mark Andrews is struggling. I think just the likely absence and really sort of the reshuffling of their number to receiver. And I say that even though we're sad, Bateman is probably the number to receiver, but just the guys behind. I guess move number three was probably safer to say, would you co-be lane? It's still for me at least touched down our bust with Andrews. He's played them three times in his career. He had one amazing game, 147 yards, like four years ago, and then just two mediocre games. So there's really nothing you can take away from this in terms of a historical thing. I would start mayor over him. I would start John Johnson over him. If he scores, you'll be okay. If he doesn't score, you're probably looking at an empty stately. Okay. And by the way, so Baltimore, the most big plays allowed last year, the Chargers, the third fewest second fewest tied for the second fewest big plays last year allowed. And in terms of big past plays of 20 or more ariards, the fewest in the NFL for the Chargers. And I was actually bringing up the Chargers because of Jesse Mentor. Oh, yep. Yep. Jesse Mentor. By the way, there's a team that was bad defensively, but didn't give up big plays. That was the Raiders. The Raiders gave up the second fewest big plays in the NFL last year. They actually weren't that bad from yards per play standpoint. They just were probably on the field all the time. But back to this game. Yeah. They're defensive coordinators somewhere else too, right? Oh, I'm not sure. I want to say who their defensive coordinator is, but now you're making me think I'm an idiot. And I don't know. Let me just dev check here. Oh, yeah. No, I did not know that. Yeah. Is it Patrick Graham? Yeah. He's not there anymore. Right. That's who I thought it was. He is now the. Oh, he's on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Yeah. He's in Steelers staff. Oh, he's the coordinator for the Steelers. Okay. Good stuff. I should have known that. Let's go to the Colts. Are we heath or are we confidently starting any one other than Jonathan Taylor? Oh, it's either Warren. We're going to start out. Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren are the two guys. I think you gave a good reason to feel a little bit scared of Tyler Warren, but there's no question you're starting him. There's no question. You're starting Jonathan Taylor. I think both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs are outside of my top 36 wide receivers. But if you need a wide receiver three, they're kind of in that same U. S. of Cortland Sutton with somebody you could start over a wide receiver you dressed as a starter. I wouldn't do that with Downs or with Pierce either. They're just in that kind of desperation wide receiver three range or flex and a three wide receiver league. Yeah, there's a lot of weight and C in week one, but I really can't wait for this game from the Colts standpoint. Like what do they look like? Daniel Jones last year was the King of first reads and it really worked for him. He scored 24.8 or more points in five of his first eight games, including games against the Broncos and the Chargers. He was just awesome. And can he go out and do it again? And I kind of want it. I don't know if like if we're worried about Alec Pierce, I kind of want to get Josh Downs in my lineup. So I think the Ravens are going to score. And I think, you know, someone's going to have to have a good game and they receive in core. I could just be warned. I'm a little bit more optimistic on Downs than he does. Again, looking at Pierce's situation and he did not play well with Daniel Jones last year. A lot of his production came at the end of the season when Jones was out. That's not saying you should worry about that this year because hopefully Pierce does some more things and there's no pitman, et cetera. But I guess just looking at how you laid it out at him. So I wouldn't start Josh Downs over a lot of, you know, players you drafted ahead of him, receivers you've drafted ahead of him. But kind of how you frame Portland Sutton, I think Josh Downs fits that more so than Sutton does as somebody like if you are concerned, should have an opportunity to catch a bunch of passes. Okay. So let's keep going back to DJ Moore. Start Josh Downs over DJ Moore. I still start more, but that's kind of getting to that point, you know, similar to Trade Talker, like anybody that you have some feeling upside for Downs one of them, then DJ Moore may not have that type of upside. Yeah, I think when you look at say Josh Downs versus a J.K. Dobbins, I take Downs. Heath? I would probably take Dobbins. Definitely. And if it's not full PPR, full PPR, I have Downs just ahead of him. So like the whole group of running back, you said probably not Steelers guys, but like the Panthers guys, Croskey Marit, Dobbins, those type of players where you don't think they're going to catch a lot of passes and relying on touchdowns. I'd rather take Downs. I read a few questions from the chat here, even though we've answered some of them, Kelsey or Andrews. Kelsey. And then we're, oh, go ahead, you know, sorry. Yeah, I know. I agree. Mayor over Andrews, right? Yep. Luther Burden or Zay flowers. He's pick one of your favorite kids. It's Zay for me. Flowers. Yeah, be interested to see if Sausgardner lines up on him a lot. Likely or Johnson. John. Yeah, why is that? Okay, that's not for this. I go likely, but I'm likely that's the Johnson they're referring to. Yeah, probably. That's Tyler Warren or Luther Burden, it flex. Burden. Oh, that's tied in versus wide receiver flex questions always make me look for the projections. And I think it would be burden for me. Pick two Luther Burden or Parker Washington or Josh Downs. This isn't one of those scenarios where Downs is better than the other two. And are we starting Keenan Allen as a wide receiver three or a flex? I hope not. I agree. Yeah, he got off to an amazing start last year. But yeah, it's that's like the the darkest timeline is if Keenan Allen scores 11 PPR points on seven targets. Yeah, it could be. Ravens DST is a low end starter for Dave Jamie and Heath onto our next game, Cleveland at Jacksonville. Instead of the game, the Jaguars held Chase Brown, Kamani by Dale, Kyron Williams, Breeze Hall, the Seattle running backs combined, and James Cook to nine point four or fewer PPR running backs. A PPR fantasy point. They are a golf cart. Yeah, they are really good. Jacksonville run defense is really, really good. I hear the question of the game. Does this streak continue? What I mentioned earlier, Trevor Lawrence, 23 or more points in eight straight games, dating back to last season. Does he get there in this game? No, yes. Oh, okay. Is there any doubt that we should be starting Trevor Lawrence? None. Not really. Okay. No miles Garrett. Also, no Alex, right. They're other starting defensive end out for the season. But yes, they have Jared verse. They have Mason Graham. They have a really good really good players on defense. And the Jaguars were actually eighth in defense last year. And they are a great streaming DST. They didn't face a lot of good competition last year. Sit to Sean Watson. They're not facing good competition in a week one. Correct. Sit to Sean Watson. Quinchon Judkins is a number two running back like right on the border. We're not starting Dylan Samson. Yeah. Harold Fanon Jr. How about Harold Fanon Jr. versus Michael Mayer? I'd lean mayor, but it's close. Yeah, I would do. Okay. Fanon is 10th for Jamie, 8th for Dave, and 11th for Heath. Or at least he was yesterday. And he might be our only tight end. So just go ahead and start him. And Dave, by the way, is the high guy on Trevor Lawrence. He has him fifth. We talked about Basil Tutten and Chris right. Oh, we didn't talk about Chris Rodriguez. But Jamie, your expectations for the Jaguars running backs against a, I don't know, maybe a neutral matchup. Game script matters here. So I expect the Jaguars to be playing with the lead and kind of getting an opportunity to see what they have with their backfield. And that would for me lend itself to seeing more Tutten. I also think that with LeQuint Allen, unexpected to play, we get a few more passing opportunities for Tutten, which should matter here. Could be a trap back. Could see goal and opportunities going to Rodriguez. I think Rodriguez is an interesting flex play because of how this game could unfold. But I would take Tutten over Judkins simply because of how this game should go. If Jacksonville shows up, I think that this is a stomping and Jaguars make this game rather easily. You think it's going to be a 10 point game? I think it could be a three touchdown. Let's stop. You said stomping, so I, you know, I mean, just, just trying to stay consistent. I was with the, how's the pole going? I have no idea. I will check Parker Washington. So what heath, yeah, we've got an update.
ahead. What is it? As of 943 85% know for a 10 time game. Is that a stomping? Yes, you're getting stomping. Do you think it's a, if the team comes in as an underdog in wins by 10, is that a stomping compared to the jaguars who are eight and a half point favorite? All right, fine. Heath, you have Parker watched in 30th. So a little, a little lower than Jamie has him 23rd and Dave 20th. Yeah, I, I, I am not sure that we get a big passable game for Jacksonville. I think we'll probably see them run quite a bit with a 10 point lead and maybe even it's a stomping and a three score lead in the third quarter. So that's really the only concern. And 30th is very close to where I had him in my full season ranking. So this isn't really much of a change. So Cleveland returns its entire secondary, but they have a new defensive coordinator. They were the most man heavy team in the NFL last year. And Parker Washington was great against man coverage. We just don't know if they're going to do the same thing this year with the new coordinator. But Washington, I think at this point, people are going to start him over Brian Thomas Jr. Should we start Brian Thomas Jr. Jamie? Three receiver leagues. I think he's worth, you know, trusting two receiver leagues not yet. You know, so we'll see how all these guys sort of mix and match together with whatever Travis Hunter does offensively. But I just think looking at it as you most likely drafted Thomas as a number three receiver. So three receiver leagues start him two receiver leagues in a flex, depending on your flexes. You keep referencing that group of running backs, I think. I would probably start. I'm referring to like the Tutan Judkins group more so than the the Steelers guys. Like that's where it's questionable. The Tutan Judkins, I'm a Pollard. I think are a little bit safer than Brian Thomas this week. Yeah, I'm deciding between him and well, I think I'm going to have to start DJ more over him. Yeah, I come out there with BTJ, but but Evans, how about Evans or Brian Thomas Jr. Evans would be BTJ for me. Okay, tough calls there. And don't start Brenton Strange. He is no higher than 18th in the rankings. Sit the Browns DST start the Jaguars DST. Did I miss anything? Oh, I'm yeah, Casey Concepcion, Denzel Boston, anyone there that you want to start? No, I don't think you showed, but make sure that they're rostered. Okay. Atlanta's at Pittsburgh. I mean, pretty easy for Atlanta, right? Yep. You just start the three main guys and don't watch the game. How about pits or mayor? Pits. How about on the Pittsburgh side? Which running back do you prefer? Based on GameScript, I think doubtable, but wouldn't shock me if Wattles the better. It's probably again going to come down to who gets the touchdown. Maybe they both do. Yeah. And I would say, look, they didn't have pitman last year. I get that. But in the last eight games of the season, Kenneth Gainwell was their primary third down back. And he was on pace for 94 catches on 108 targets. And Pittsburgh went five and three. So the game script didn't matter. Just that's just what Aaron Rogers did. So in the last couple of years, he's just been throw the ball to the running backs, basically as much as any quarterback and football. I know he's you want to see what it looks like with Mike McCarthy because it wasn't like that when he was with Mike McCarthy. So we shall see. Yeah. The McCarthy thing is kind of and Rogers recent quotes are what have me more optimistic about DK Metcalf, who is a high end wide receiver three for me. I would start him over DJ Moore. And some I'm probably starting at DK Metcalf in most leagues this first week. I don't know how much you care about this, but Metcalf to me, if AJ Terrell follows him, I think it's going to be a tough day for Metcalf. But I went back. I watched a lot of tape and he doesn't know. There aren't that many cornerbacks that always shadow. Like I could feel pretty confident Sir Tann will. If you know, if he was playing like a good outside receiver, I Terrell, you just never know with him. Like one game, he shadowed Mike Evans and Evan struggled. One game, he didn't shadow Evans and Evan said a big game. So they are inconsistent with that. Well, it's also a new coach. So it is. Yeah. That that matters. I think you just look at it as the pass rush could be awful for Atlanta. Yeah, you know, trying to get open. Yeah, he sure will. It's this could be one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. All right. So Metcalf, who's the best starter on the on the Steelers? Is it Metcalf or is it Warren Dowdell? I would put both running backs out of Metcalf just because I flip a coin, which one could again, could be good. I do have all three of them projected for 12 fantasy points. Oh, this is annoying. I don't even know like what to do with with the Steelers. I mean, yeah, the Steelers running backs are obviously a headache. I want to see if we have any any questions because this game actually, I feel like a lot of people are going to have Metcalf, Pittman, Dowdell, Warren questions here. You want to start them against Atlanta? I feel like this could be an opportunity for them to do well, but I don't see any questions in the chat. So I'll just have to do it myself. And I'm going to look at the most activated list. And would you start any of the Steelers guys over Quentin, Johnston? Three of them. Okay. That was a big difference. Yeah. Wow. Would you start them over Wondale Robinson? Yes. Four of them. No, three of them. This is not Pittman. Oh, Pittman would be the fourth. How about Trey Tucker? No. Three of them. I'm sorry. I would start I would start the Steelers overtuckers. Excuse me. Would you start them over? One more. Jalen Koker. All of them. I would start Koker over Metcalf. And I would start DK over DJ more. I'm not sure if I said that. No, you didn't say that. Okay. No, here's one. Dowdell or Josh Downs at Flex? Downs in PPR. Dowdell for me? Waddle or Dowdell? PPR. Dowdell. Waddle. Would you like the Steelers DST? Love. Okay. Love, love, love. Buffalo is at Houston. Boy, Josh Allen's got some bad history against the Texans the last two years. 8.1 fantasy points. How about Josh Allen? What do I say? Josh Downs. Come on, dude. Be better than that. Adam. Come on. Josh Allen. 8.1 fantasy points last year. Two years ago, 16.6 fantasy points, but he had the worst completion percentage of his career. He was nine of 30. He has never won in Houston. Oh, and four on the road at Houston, including in the postseason. Two of those games very early in his career. Starters at Josh Allen. Wasn't wasn't the Houston, the his first playoff game or his second playoff game where like it was going so awesome. Then he had just the ridiculously dumb fumble where that ended the game. I don't remember. Sounds right. I don't remember. You're going to start him. I just, I started. If you drafted him in Justice Herbert, I'd start just an Herbert over. Start James Cook. DJ Moore. Yeah, we've talked a lot about him. I'm not going to go over it here, but yeah, the Texans were just terrific against corner by. Oh, wide receivers. They have a great corner backs. Dalton, Kate and Dalton Schultz. We talked about in one question for each game. So just please rewind to that. CJ Stroud is going to be a sit. So yeah, I do want to talk more about these buffle, these Texans running backs. Heath. And what do you expect from Montgomery and Marks? Again, against the team that allowed 5.1 yards per carry to running backs last year. But I think they will be better than that this year. Yeah, I don't. Again, I think the bills changed enough players and system that I'm not really. I'm just kind of viewing them as average until we see something different. I think this is a pretty big split. And so I don't really want to start either Texans running back in what should be a pretty low scoring game. Montgomery is right behind the Steelers for me. Woody Marks is down there in the Panthers running back range behind Jonathan Brooks, behind JK Dobbins, behind Kenneth Gainwell. I don't really want to start either, but I'd rather flex Montgomery if I had to. I guess I'm a little bit more confident in Montgomery, mostly because I think this could be a low scoring game. I think anytime, which isn't going to be rare because the Texas defense is so good, but if you think they're chasing points, I think that's where Marks has a little bit more of an advantage. So this should be a situation where running downs and goal line opportunities favor Montgomery. And I think that helps him in this match up. So I think Montgomery is number two running back. I'd start him over. Judd Gins, for example, just because I think GameScript matters here for a guy that's going to kind of have a similar type workload. Okay. Different opinions there on David Montgomery. Good stuff. Start Nico Collins. And I think we're just going to want to stash Jacobi Lane, right? We don't want to necessarily start him in week one. I would say Lane, in case you're on booty or both stash candidates, if you're at that point in your roster, where you need receivers, but check to see if trade tuckers out there. And if we're talking about those type of players, I would rather roster Chris Bell, just to see what he has.
And by the way, speaking of occasion on booty, maybe the Patriots can get them back report just now that it is a is believed to be a high ankle sprain for a J brown. That is from Mike Garafalo and Ian Rappaport. X-rays were negative for a fracture. Brown has an MRI today to determine how much time he'll miss. Just real quick on that last year CD-LAM high ankle sprain in week three. He basically got hurt on the opening drive or something of week three missed that game. Miss three more games, I believe came back and did very, very well, but AJ Brown just believed to have suffered a high ankle sprain, which really sucks. And all right, that's that's Texans, um, Dalton Schultz is let's see in the rankings. Schultz is 16th for Jamie 19th for Dave and 12th for Heath, more confidence in Dalton Schultz. All right, just one spot ahead of Kelsey two spots ahead of Andrews, but basically tied. Um, how about, oh, what do you think about the, the bills DST? Low in starter. Yeah. Okay. Miami's always play against the district. This will be our last game. We'll save Jets Titans for tomorrow. Jamie, it's kind of an interesting game because I don't think we love the offenses, but man, these, these defenses, especially Miami's could be really bad. So what kind of gamer you expecting here between the dolphins and Raiders? It's so different now without hours there. So I wouldn't anticipate a lot of Ash and Jenny sounds like he's going to be okay. And so maybe Mike Washington is a flex play as well, just because of how the game flow could go if the Raiders are playing with the lead. But as bad as the Dolphins defense is, you know, you just taken away the Raiders best player. So hopefully mayor can do something similar to what he did last year in those three games. Two of them were amazing without hours. And then we see something from Tucker or something from nailer or something from somebody else that you can at least say, okay, this is something I could potentially pick up. I would lean Tucker. I think he would as well, just in terms of who has the most upside of this receiving course. So really it's about the running backs here. I think for me, genty must dark eye Washington potential flex. And then mayor, if you're just looking for that tight end replacement because of power being up. And then HNs obviously a must start alongside genty and the wide receivers for the Dolphins. I think you I wouldn't mind rostering one or two of those rookies just to see. But it's it's one of those that's wait and see type situations. We're not going to start any of them. I think if you didn't get Michael mayor and there's a lot of tight ends rostered nor Lee Greg Dolson, which is a pretty good dart throw at that position. They were good reports about his rapport with Malik Willis. And he was second amongst tight ends in yards for right run on a very small sample size last year. He was awesome. And honestly, I watched game tape of him. I guess like a month or two ago or something. And I my notes were Greg Dolson's looked pretty damn good kind of look like a beast out there. If you didn't know it was Greg Dolson's you'd be impressed. I mean, there's like a perception. Oh, he's Greg Dolson's. I don't know how good Greg Dolson's is. It might be a good player. I just don't know. I loved him coming out of college. Right. A lot of people did. Yeah, it was. It's been that Denver situation was supposed to be great. You know, and now the Dolphins situation is supposed to be great. You just hope that he can take advantage of the opportunity. I think what's frustrating is, oh, I've got Trey Tucker and I might be able to start him some weeks. And I kind of have this thing about you know, with Greg Dolson or Caleb Douglas or Chris Bella, whatever. And this might be the best week. Oh, you're going to start these guys. And there's no one on by and you might sit them. But maybe Malik Willis. Maybe this is the time to start Malik Willis if you took a shot on him. I mean, who would you someone asked Malik Willis or Trevor Lawrence? I don't think we're going to go that far. We're going to start Lawrence. Malm's. Malm's anyone else. Next for me. Next for me too. Okay. Yeah. I mean, look, it's just because somebody's. Oh, man, Malik Willis. I wouldn't do it, but that's where we are. You wouldn't do it though. No, no, but that's the level of quarterback. We're talking about you. Just because someone's ranked, you know, 16, 17, 18 in the rankings at quarterback. It doesn't mean we don't like them. Just so, you know, there's one. I would start Willis over Daniel Jones. Yes. Would you start him over Jackson Dart? No. No. I'll read some questions to get us out of here. Some of these are from this game. Some are not DJ Moore or Dejon Stribling. DJ Moore. DJ Moore. A lot of DJ Moore questions. Wandel Robinson or more? More. More. More Christian Watson. More. More for now. Michael Mayer or Tucker Kraft. Kraft Kraft. Michael mayor or George Kittle. Mayor. Mayor. Just to finish on mayor. Jamie's got him ninth. Heath has him eighth. Dave has him twelfth. You guys like him better than Juan Johnson. Dave has Johnson one spot ahead. Dallas Goddard is close. Jamie likes Goddard a lot this week. He has him sixth. Heath has Goddard ninth, one spot behind mayor. Dave has Goddard two spots ahead of Michael mayor. So starter right now. Let's just I'll just check the roster percentage real quick for Michael mayor. Still available in a lot of leagues. I assume. Yeah. Only 21% roster. How about that? Okay. Well, that's going to change because there's a hundred percent of rock hours roster. Yeah, I know. Yeah. But we'll see what it is by the time Sunday rolls around. Might be in the 40s or something like that. I think I guess I didn't really get into straight Tucker. Talked about him earlier. He's like, he had a huge spike game. I think the first game where Bowers was injured in week two and should get opportunities here, but it's still someone that's going to be hard to trust. You know, so in that number three receiver range, sure in top 24, I don't know if he'll ever get to that level, but this is the perfect time to just pick him up. So whoever I know for for me, I can only speak for myself. The leagues where I had Jordan Tyson and Zach Sharman and those type of IR stashes. I picked up the bucks DST because they get the Browns next week. Easy to drop them for Tucker and mayor to see what these guys become because we just don't know how long Bowers are going to be out. It's one to two weeks. It was the initial report. That could be a month. Jets Titans tomorrow plus NFC home games and the Chargers Cardinals. And we'll talk to you then. Enjoy the game tonight. Should be an interesting one. Have a good one, everybody. See you. Paramount Podcasts. Now screaming on Paramount+.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The fantasy football recap highlights a turbulent start to the season, driven by injuries and key player performances, particularly the impact of AJ Brown’s injury and Darian Price’s strong showing.
Jamie and Heath offer distinct player recommendations, with Jamie favoring Jared Goff, Parker Washington, and Luther Burton, while Heath leans on Justin Herbert, Marsha on Lloyd, and Chris Godwin as top picks.
A significant concern is the risk of player performance drops when starters are injured, with data showing past quarterback and wide receiver struggles without their primary playmakers, leading to cautious start/sit decisions.
Summary:
The fantasy football recap from CBS Sports addresses the early-season challenges in the NFL, focusing on key injuries and player performance volatility. AJ Brown's injury and the subsequent drop in a crucial play are highlighted as pivotal moments affecting game outcomes. Darian Price's strong performance in Seattle signals potential value as a fantasy asset, while injuries to key players like Jackson Smith and the uncertainty around wide receiver play raise concerns for fantasy managers.
Jamie and Heath present contrasting player picks: Jamie emphasizes Jared Goff, Parker Washington, and Luther Burton due to favorable matchups and target share opportunities, while Heath leans on Justin Herbert and Marsha on Lloyd, citing strong defensive matchups and target volume. The analysis also stresses the importance of situational awareness, especially with quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and tight ends like Dalton Schultz facing tough defenses. Projections show that injuries and offensive line adjustments can significantly impact performance, leading to a cautious approach in fantasy lineups.
The episode concludes with a focus on high-value flex options and market trends, like the growing strength of tight end matchups and the risk of underperformance in games with deep defensive schemes. A recurring theme is the difficulty in predicting outcomes when starters are absent, with players like DJ Moore and Jeremiah Love facing tough defensive secondary challenges. Overall, the recap urges fantasy managers to balance confidence in projected matchups with realistic risk assessment, especially given the high volatility in early-season games.
FAQs
It's unlikely Romeo Doubs will miss much time, and his injury is not expected to be long-term. However, given his lack of production before the injury, many analysts suggest starting other receivers instead.
Darian Price looked dominant in practice and has excellent upside as a short-yardage runner. He may be the third in line for touches, but his role is still limited, making him a flexible option rather than a must-start.
Yes, Luther Burton is a strong start due to high yardage over/under projections and a favorable matchup against the Bears. He’s expected to see significant playing time if AJ Brown is out.
Parker Washington has a strong case as a starting option, especially against Cleveland, where the defense is weakened. He’s expected to lead in targets and have top-20 upside.
Yes, many analysts recommend sitting Patrick Mahomes against Denver due to concerns about his left tackle and the Chiefs' defense, which may not be as strong as expected.
No, Christian Watson is not a safe start against Minnesota due to the strong secondary and poor matchup. He's better as a flex or backup option in a PPR league.
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