1123: Week 1 Sleepers

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You stay in control, reviewing the work, and choosing the final result. Put Chat GPT to work on your most ambitious ideas and projects. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting Work Mode. Available on Plus and Pro plans. This is the Late Round Podcast with your host, J.J. Zacharysa. What's up, everyone? It's J.J. Zacharysa in this episode 1123 of the Late Round Fantasy Football Podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I'll be doing this Sleepers episode every single week, and I have to be up front. This is not a start-sit show. Instead, I'm just trying to give you guys some players who are readily available on the waiver wire who you might want to consider starting in that given week. If I call a player out on this show, it doesn't mean that you're starting him no matter what. It just means that I like his matchup, I like his situation, maybe I like the player himself, and I can see him coming through with a usable day. But in the end, we're talking about lower-tiered players on this episode every single week. I'm happy to just hit on like 30% of them. Most of them will not hit. Now, I'll do what I did last year and bucket players into three categories. Players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo leagues, players rostered in 20-50% of them, and then players rostered in fewer than 20% of them. As you'd guess, that last category won't see a ton of hits this year. But these ranges of roster exposure, allow for everyone to get a little bit of something from this episode. We'll get to that first group in just a second. First, I do want to remind you once again to check out lateround.com. We've got brand new offerings this year for members. We have a much better interface for weekly and rest of season rankings, new metrics in the data dump, and so much more. You can learn more about it and what it means to be a late-round fantasy football member by just heading to lateround.com. Now, let's get to these sleepers. Week one is always one of the toughest sleeper shows, because we just don't have that much information on how these teams are going to perform. How they're going to play. As the season goes on, this show should get better and better. That's the goal, at least. We'll kick things off by looking at players rostered in 50-80% of Yahoo leagues, and we'll start at quarterback with Baker Mayfield. Now, I'm probably a little bit less bullish about this matchup for Mayfield versus consensus. Mostly because I think Cincinnati's defense got better compared to last year, and their secondary in particular is not that bad. DJ Turner is legit. But this game environment should be really strong. The Bucs have a 23.5 point implied team total, and the game total is over 50 points. Our adjusted points allowed numbers have this as the 8th best matchup for Baker. So he should be fine. Just don't be surprised if Cincinnati's defense is better this year than last year. Now, in that same game, I'm intrigued by Kenny Gainwell. The Bengals are 3.5 point favorites, so a negative game script is possible for Tampa Bay. Sean Tucker is also iffy. And even though he's not going to play a massive role this year, that does limit the Bucs' backfield to basically two players. If that negative game script hits, it would make sense for Gainwell to see more work as a pass catcher. Last year with Pittsburgh, Gainwell ranked 7th among running backs in route share when the team was trailing by a touchdown or more. And what's interesting is that Rashad White ranked 8th within that metric, obviously Rashad White having played for the Buccaneers. When specifically looking at the 4th quarter, so when the team is definitely trailing, and they're in comeback mode, White had the 5th highest route share. Gainwell, he ranked 9th. This is all to say that Gainwell could just naturally get some work. But maybe there's a slight boost if the game script goes a certain way. But it is week 1. Game script is even more difficult to project than usual, just to be clear. Now, speaking of game script, I think one game that we probably feel best about this week is Jacksonville against Cleveland. The Jags are 7.5 point favorites, which could lead to a more ground-and-pound approach overall for their offense. And that means both Bashal Tootin and Chris Rodriguez might be useful, specifically for this episode, Chris Rodriguez. Now, we still don't know how this backfield is going to be split. But my guess is that we get close to a 50-50, maybe 60-40 split to start the season. Tootin has more pass catching upside given Rodriguez's history, but that may not matter that much in this matchup. Rodriguez was 2nd in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt last year, though that was knocked down to 14th or so when adjusted for situation. Even still, he's got the ability to handle a big workload and help drain clock. And that could lead to fantasy production as big favorites against the Browns. Moving to wide receiver, I'm expecting Matthew Golden to be out there in two wide receiver sets for Green Bay right away. He's still under that 80% rostered mark too. In the preseason, Jaden Reed ran all of his routes with Jordan Love out of the slot. Golden was 90% out wide. I think Green Bay is going to lean into 11 personnel quite a bit, given their personnel, given their build. But they're going to give Golden every opportunity to be that perimeter player for them. So this is really just a potential volume play for week one. The Packers get the Vikings in the game with an okay enough total, and it's being played indoors. PFF has Minnesota's secondary ranked 22nd entering the season. So I think Golden works in this tier. I also like Jalen Coker this week. The Panthers are home underdogs against the Bears, and Chicago's got one of the better offenses in football. Carolina's going to have to keep pace. They also are facing a Bears secondary that ranks as average, according to PFF. And for what it's worth, Chicago played man at the 11th highest rate last year. Among wide receivers with 200 or more routes run last season, Jalen Coker was 15th and PPR points per out run against man defense. The Panthers will have to keep pace. Like I said, that could mean a little bit extra volume for Jalen Coker. For similar negative game script reasons, I'm excited to see what Casey Concepcion is going to do against the Jags this week. My guess is that Cleveland is going to do a lot to try to get him the ball. He lined up all over the field throughout his time in college, and they've talked about his versatility all camp long. So that call out is mostly the fact that Cleveland should see a negative game script against Jacksonville. And even if they want to run the rock, they might not be able to. And Concepcion could benefit as a result. I've got one tight end in this tier. It's Jawan Johnson. The Saints-Lions game could be fireworks offensively. And Johnson was kind of sweet last year, when Tyler Shuck was under center. Johnson had a solid 1.71 yards per route run rate last year, but it was 1.91 in Tyler Shuck starts. From week eight through week 17, only George Kittle, Colson Loveland, and Trey McBride had a higher yards per route run rate at tight end. And Johnson's 0.41 PPR points per route run over that stretch was eighth best at tight end. It trailed only George Kittle, Harold Fannin, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Colson Loveland, Kyle Pitts, and Dallas Goddard. Like I said, this environment looks strong, even if we have Detroit entering the season as a slightly below average matchup for tight ends. This next tier of players consists of guys rostered in 20 to 50% of Yahoo leagues. And we'll start with Jawan Johnson's quarterback, Tyler Shuck. Shuck is playing in this Kellen Moore offense that ranked in the top 10 in plays run per game every year that he was offensive coordinator. Last year with the Saints, they ranked 11th. And that was on a team with inexperienced quarterback play and not a lot of players. But Shuck turned it on down the stretch last year. He averaged 15.8 PPR points per game in his starts, but it was 19.6 over his final six games. He can give you that rushing juice, and that's always what we're looking for. Now the Saints get the Lions in a game with a 49.5 point total. And Detroit's secondary is a below average one. It's a good spot for Tyler Shuck. I also don't mind Malik Willis. I've said it so many times on the show by now, but players with his potential rushing profile, almost always finish his QB ones in fantasy. Even Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson have been top eight in fantasy points per dropback over the last handful of seasons. They just couldn't hold on to their job. And Malik Willis probably won't lose his job in one game. They get the Raiders this week, and the Raiders have a bottom tiered secondary. So I think Malik Willis should be able to produce. I think there's a real chance that Tyler Algier gets game scripted out this week. It's a possibility. But with Jeremiah Love, maybe not totally being 100%, the Cardinals don't have that much to rely on in their backfield. But yeah, the game script aspect against the Chargers is very scary. They're the biggest favorites on this week's slate. So the Cardinals are the biggest underdogs. And Algier ranked 75th last year in route share while trailing by seven or more points. Now, obviously that wasn't a backfield with Bijan Robinson. But we've always seen Algier as more of a bruiser, not quite as much as a pass catcher. Even still, when you're this deep in the free agency pool, it's tough to find. guaranteed volume. And I do think that Algier could get double-digit touches in this game. and it's an average just below average matchup according to late rounds numbers now in that same game and at that same position as long as he's healthy you could look at Keaton Mitchell Mitchell's practicing I think he's trending towards playing at this point and not only could the game flow be nice for the Chargers backfield but I think we're going to see a lot of forced manufactured touches for Keaton Mitchell every single week we kind of got a glimpse of that in the preseason Mitchell ran three of his six routes out of the slot now that's not going to translate to the season he's not going to have a 50 slot rate that's not why I'm calling this out I'm just saying that the Chargers were clearly testing things out and they were testing things out with the fastest running back in the game who's second in the NFL in yards per rush since entering the league among 87 runners with 100 or more carries we know Mike McDaniel loves speed and we know that he can scheme his guys into easy touches so as a dart throw I think Mitchell's transaction show earlier in the week, and while I do think this week against the Jets sets up more as like a Tony Pollard game, I also think there's a chance that this backfield is just split more than we anticipate. Like I said, in the preseason, Spears played with Cam Ward just as much as Tony Pollard did, even on early downs. But Spears has more to win in fantasy if the game script ever does go south. It's a good matchup on paper, and like I said, I do like Tony Pollard more this week. But keep an eye on Tajay Spears. At wide receiver, what about Trey Tucker? I think he's going to start the season running the most routes for the Raiders at wide receiver. And the Raiders are more than likely going to play out of 12 personnel, a lot. He saw his yards per route run last year go from 1.21 to 1.47 when in situations with two or fewer wide receivers in the field. The Raiders get a Miami team that's essentially just like actively tanking. According to PFF's rankings, no team has a worse secondary entering the season than the Miami team. So I think it's going to be a good Miami Dolphins. So if Tucker is running a good number of routes, we should expect him to get some fantasy production. Now this next one's kind of ugly, but I'm curious to see what happens with Deebo Samuel this week in Australia. The Rams will be able to generate pressure this year, and we've seen Deebo play more of that low average depth of target role for the 49ers in the past. So I can see a scenario where they're getting the ball out quick in order to avoid that pressure. And on a team that might not run a ton of 11 personnel, I do expect Deebo Samuel to be their wide receiver too. To be out there ahead of Dajon Stribling. So there is at least a little bit of intrigue there. At tight end in this tier, I've got two guys. One of them is in that same game, it's Terrence Ferguson. Shocker. This is mostly a dart throw though. We still don't know exactly how they're going to deploy Ferguson, but without a real slot player on that team, I would not be surprised if they use him a lot there right away. And it's a team in the Rams that'll more than likely rank towards the top of the league this year in heavy personnel use. Last year, Ferguson had an average up to target over 17 yards and he hit 12 PPR points and two of his top three route share games. I hope you don't have to dig this deep for week one, but he is an option. If you want to play it a little bit safer, you could go to Dalton Schultz. I mentioned it on the 10 trends episode yesterday, but I'm anticipating the Texans playing out of more 12 personnel this year. But not only that, Schultz was 16th in route share last year and 10th in target share. We also don't even know how they're going to deploy. Keishon Booty or that wide receiver two on the team, just given he just got there in a game against the bills that's indoors and where the Texans will have to keep pace, which isn't the case all the time. Given that defense Schultz could PPR scam his way into a top 12 week. We're not looking at players rostered in fewer than 20% of Yahoo league. So we're digging very deep here at quarterback. Gino Smith is one he's a quarterback, but I do think he's viable against the Titans this week. At least more in a super flex format. The Titans ranked 30th and PFFs preseason secondary rankings. And yes, Gino was second to last in 2025 and fantasy points per drop back. Not great, but he's closer to just below average in that statistic. When you look at his two seasons prior and he's at least got some dynamic weapons and a good offensive line in front of him this year, or at least a better offensive line. I'm just not that scared of this Titans matchup in general, though. I will say a 19 point implied team total. That's very, very scary for the New York Jets. Now at running back, I only have one of them for you. It's Dylan Sampson. We have no idea how the Browns are going to divvy up that backfield, especially if a negative game script hits. But we do know that Todd Munkin has historically split up that pass catching role and Sampson. He beat out Quinshawn Judkins last year and fourth quarter route share by about 10 percentage points. Now we talked about this possible game script earlier. They get Jacksonville. That may lead to more Dylan Sampson. I cannot imagine that you're digging this deep, but hey, it's a fun little call out to monitor at wide receiver in this tier. I actually do like Dontavia and Wicks this week. Makai Lemon missed a lot of camp. He struggled in the preseason. And since it's early in the season, I'm expecting Wicks to run as Philly's number two wide receiver. And that's against a bottom five secondary in Washington. And Philly also has a 25 point implied team total. That's one of the higher marks you're going to find across the league this week. So I don't mind Wicks at all as a dart throw. And then another one to shout out here, another 15 transactions player, Devon Valey. There's a lot to like about this matchup against Detroit. There's a decent game total, a secondary that's below average and an opposing offense where the Saints will have to keep pace. As I said on that show, on the 15 transaction show, Devon Valey actually had pretty decent per route run numbers last year after Rashid Shahid was traded. And he's probably going to run as the clear number two wide receiver behind Chris Alave this week. He's still out there in well over 95% of leagues. He definitely qualifies for this list. And then at tight end, I want to shout out Cade Otten, good old cardio Cade. Otten had the fourth highest route share among all tight ends last season. And given their depth chart, he's probably in store for a lot of work again. Now it hasn't translated to amazing production, but remember how bad Cincinnati was last year against tight ends. It may not totally translate year over year, but our numbers currently have Cincinnati as the second best matchup for fantasy tight ends. It's a game we want to target this week. So throwing the dart Otten's way makes sense. And then the other tight end to call out here, it's a pretty obvious one. It's Michael Mayer. Now I didn't mention the Brock Bowers injury earlier when talking about Trey Tucker, because I had recorded that before the injury news dropped, before we learned that he had this procedure, but it makes Tucker an even better play too. But Michael Mayer is a very capable tight end. We saw him with a top 20 yards per route run rate last year in a bad offense. And he actually ranked sixth in the NFL and targets per route run. That's among tight ends. It's a tight end friendly offense and they're facing a Dolphins team. That's very beatable defensively. I think Michael Mayer is a great play. As for streaming defenses this week, I mentioned on the 15 transactions episode, it's tough to find good options in week one. And that's still very much true. I don't mind Dallas against the Giants. I don't mind the bills against the Texans given that offensive line could still be a problem this year for Houston. If you want, you could just roll with the Jets and the Titans, both of them in that game. It's a tough week for streaming though. It'll be better next week. And speaking of that, if you tune into the late round fantasy football show, I do a look ahead waiver wire segment every week. That's live on YouTube every Friday at 1 PM Eastern, and it'll hit your podcast feeds on Saturday morning. That's it for today's show though. Thanks to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed to the late round fantasy football podcast, make sure you are butchering for it pretty much anywhere podcast. Can be found and if you follow me on Twitter and on blue sky at late round QB. 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