The podcast presents a lively, curiosity-driven preview of the 2026 NFL season opener, shifting from traditional team analysis to a celebration of football’s excitement and unpredictability. Rather than predicting outcomes, hosts Robert Mays, Dave, and Derek focus on games with high potential for "fake" results—such as the Bills vs. Texans, Eagles vs. Commanders, and Steelers vs. Falcons—where early-season chaos, new coaching, and roster changes create ideal conditions for absurdity. They highlight how these matchups are not only entertaining but also serve as key tests for new offensive and defensive systems. The discussion underscores that week one results are often misleading, with many early-season narratives fading as teams settle into their true identities. The hosts also note the enduring tradition of questioning which games are truly meaningful versus just hype, citing past instances like the 2021 Saints vs. Packers game or the 2023 Colts vs. Dolphins result. They emphasize that while the first month may be the most "fake" due to turnover, it’s also the most fun, offering fans a chance to witness real growth and evolution. The show concludes with excitement for the Ravens vs. Colts game, where both teams are undergoing significant changes, and for rookie performances that could redefine early-season narratives. The tone remains upbeat and reflective, celebrating football’s unpredictability and the joy of watching teams find their rhythm.
Welcome to the athletic football show brought to you by the US bank smartly visa signature card.
I'm Robert Mays. Week one is officially here. Niners Rams is tonight's
our recap from Patriot Seahawks is available in your podcast feed is available on our YouTube
channel. A lot of excitement swirling around week one. And that's what we dug into today.
Our week one preview over the years has always been different than the other previews that we do
over the course of the season. This is mostly just the celebration of football being back and the
things we are most excited to watch on the week one slate. What are some unit matchups that
we're curious about? What are some teams that we can't wait to see what it actually looks like
after we've speculated about who they might be on offense or defense over the course of the
season as Derek brought up. Who's the rookie? That's just good right away. These are the things
that we have to sort through in week one. And so that's what we talked about today. All of the
different considerations as we get to open up week one NFL football again for the first time.
Looking forward to that, enjoyed this conversation. Me, Dave, and Derek, let's get to it right now.
We made it. We've got football starting in about five hours recording this on Wednesday afternoon.
By the time you guys are listening to this, the recap of Patriot Seahawks will be available wherever
you get your podcasts and on YouTube. So obviously a lot of anticipation today. We're going to do
our version of a week one preview today. This show over the last couple of years has looked
different than a traditional preview show might look in part because we haven't seen these teams
at all. And so digging into whatever speculation there might be about what they might do. I've never
enjoyed that version of a week one preview. I'd rather just talk about what we're excited
to watch this weekend and what we are most curious about as it relates to these games. So that's
what we're going to do today. Just a smattering of thoughts, curiosities, things that you want,
maybe an answer on from a lot of the games that we're going to be watching during week one.
I mean, we do two months of trying to figure out what these teams are going to look like. And then
like trying to do it one more time, do a very specific lens of like, what will it also theoretically
look like against this other team that we don't know enough about? It's, I think this is a more fun
way to do it because we also do, by this point in the calendar, the last like two to three weeks
leading up to the season, it's pure excitement. It's like, let's go, like, let's get this off the
off the starting. That's where I'm at right now. I'm just excited to watch football. I'm
hoping in a channel that enthusiasm into the conversation that we're having. I've been there.
And also a third of the these results are going to be Fugazi. We were so and I regret nothing,
but we were so excited about that. Steeler's jets. It's such a perfect classic week one
representation. Can we actually kind of start there before we even get into this stuff that we're
excited about? I do think one like overarching thing that's always fun about week one is like,
which results are going to be the ones that are completely fake because of the five games that
feel fake. We're insane. One of them becomes real because last year we had the calls. It was the
close. Yes. But in last year we had the Raiders beating the Patriots week one. And Gino looked good.
He threw for like 400 yards. That was not none of that was real. The Patriots went to the
Super Bowl and the Raiders were horrible. The Vikings Bears game week one. People were like,
is JJ McCarthy better than Caleb Williams? By the end of the season or by now,
JJ McCarthy is third on his own team. And people are like, Caleb Williams might be the next thing.
The Jets Series game, which you just brought up, which like we were like, oh my god, both of these
offenses. It's what they wanted it to be and and all this stuff. And that was completely fake.
And then you had the Colts throttling the Miami Dolphins. And that one turned out real because like
the Colts were really good for eight weeks until Daniel Jones got hurt. And that kind of did look
like the end of the two of tongue of I lower era. And by the end of the season, that's exactly what
it was. Well, the whole point is that there's no way to predict which of those. Right. Yeah.
I'm not going to predict them. That's going to be something we just have to sort through in both
the week one preview. And then we should do after week two. Don't we, Bella? There is this real
midweek episode. Yeah. We will do that again. I mean, that's one of the things we've done
consistently over the years. It's such a good, it's such a good episode. It's so good. It's so fun.
It's so good to like lay down those markers while knowing that you can't possibly know if it's
real or not. Of course. So, but we will have that conversation. But those considerations about
all right, how much of this is actually meaningful and how much of this is just week one bullshit.
It's an annual tradition. I mean, it's one of my favorite parts of the start of any NFL season.
I can't remember what year it was, but I want to say I was at the ringer. And so it might have
been the 2016 seasons. Is that the year that Trevor Simeon started 4 and 0 for the Broncos?
That's that's the right. Yeah. Yeah. That was the year where there was part of my brain that was
like, I wish we wouldn't have to discuss any of this over the first four weeks. I wish it just,
we all collectively agreed in the football content space for the first four weeks of the season.
No one said a word about anything. And we could just pick it up in week five. But obviously that
is not how any of this works. Another one that always sticks in my mind. In 2021, the Jamest Winston
Saints beat the Packers 38 to three. Aaron Rogers won the MVP that year. It was just like, I don't know.
It was it was the 16 Broncos. I'm sorry. But yes, buyer beware of anything. That's my first year
during and that was why yeah. I've just thinking daydreaming about two years ago week one, the bucks
trounced the JD Daniels commanders. That was a weird team, right? They took them a little while to
figure things out. That offense was so fake over the first month. And then that's also part of
this is that even if we can acknowledge that the week one results are often very fake, we're
gonna extend this further into the year where teams are still figuring it out. And I honestly think
and this might be just anecdotal and recency bias. But it feels like with so many of these teams.
And I think just the sheer nature and turnover with that we're seeing with the play callers.
There's going to be more examples of this this year where man, just give it a few weeks.
Yeah, there's so many new offensive systems, so many new defenses. I almost feel like I honestly
feel like the first month of the season might be as fake as it's ever been because of the turnover
that we're talking about. And so just keeping that in mind as we're trying to digest the first four
weeks or so is worthwhile. Let's dig into some specifics. Let's talk about some things that we are
most excited, curious about with the week one slate. David kicks off. What was the first thing
that you wrote down when you were talking about what you wanted to watch with this group of games?
I mean, it's basic, but I think that's okay. And I'll actually I'll zig where you might think I
zag because it would be easy to say Bill's Texans should be the Sunday night game. But I kind of
love that it's just in the in the noon window as just this. Yes, me to actually say the game where
it's like, no, you you have to pay attention to this. You have to find a way to have this on a
screen because it's going to be bonkers. And on top of that, in addition to it just being two
teams with a lot of big aspirations playing each other in week one, this game is in Houston,
which has been a horror show for the Buffalo Bills over the time that Josh Allen has been there.
Some real great Josh Allen moments in Houston. We had that horrendous game two years ago,
just the disgusting game you played two years ago. And then the one where that like we're Sean
McDermott lost his mind about late game strategy. Was that the one? Yeah, and Josh Allen's
numbers in that game. He was nine of 30. Oh, yeah, it's probably since he became good,
that might be the worst game that he's ever played. It was on launchable. They were so bad in that
game. And then they were playing against the Texans in Houston when he tried to pitch the ball
back to his full back in the past. Please don't forget just last. I forgot about that.
That when they they sacked in like seven times on a Thursday night last year. That was all.
Eight times. No, that wasn't Houston, wasn't it? I think that game was in Buffalo last year, wasn't it?
I don't remember where it was, but I also did have Texans bills for this exact reason. I mean,
an eight sack. It wasn't Houston. It wasn't Houston. You're right. I thought that game was in
Buffalo last year. It doesn't go well for the Bills when they go down there. They're o and four
in the Josh Allen era in Houston. And they're one in six in Houston, just since the Texans were
founded. Why do you think that the Texans defense gives them so much, so many problems?
I think especially over the last couple of years, the Bills offense has become about like we're going
to run the ball. We're going to insulate the offenses in certain ways. And we're not protecting Josh
Allen, but we're just trying not to make him Superman, especially when the past catchers just weren't
good enough. That's a front you can't hide from. You cannot hide from how good those guys are.
And I think just at a certain point, they just kind of get beat up so fast and Josh Allen was
getting heated up when I think if it was versus lesser corners, Allen would probably be more
willing and able to just like chuck some balls up and get it in there. But when he's thrown to a
pretty mediocre wide receiver core against Derek Stingray and C'marie Lasseter, it's like I just
don't know what you're supposed to do. And I think it's probably going to be fine that Aaron
Kroamer retired and Alec Anderson is stepping in for David Edwards, especially over the
long enough sample of time, all that stuff is probably going to be fine. Is it going to be fine
week one against these guys on the road? I don't know. That's fun. Let's let's watch and find out
on Sunday afternoon. You had Bill Texans. Is there anything else specifically that you wanted to
point out that you were curious about? I mean, you on on quirk that thing on Sunday. Yeah, he brings up
the, you know, Alec Anderson stepping in for David Edwards a little bit. And I think over the
course of the season, I think that that will be good for them. In this matchup, it almost feels
worse like I would rather have the have my offense of volume be a little bit better. See if we can
try to run the ball a little bit better this time around, whatever it's going to be, rather than like
I just don't think like I think DJ Moore will be good and help them a lot against Cory
Laster and Derek Stinley. Like I still think that that is huge advantage Houston Texans. And so
I think there's a chance that Texans could still lose this game and the bills could find a way to win
it. I mean, they almost did last year just by how bad Alan
and the offense played, but I'm just excited to see
if the Texans can really do it again.
'Cause the fact that this really is the only team
that pretty consistently dismantles
what has been the best offense in the league
for a handful of years, I'm just incredibly excited
to watch that again.
- What was the first thing you wrote down?
First thing, other than Bill Texans.
- Yeah, other than Bill Texans.
- After Bill Texans, what was the next thing
that you wanted to talk about?
- The next thing I had was, I'm excited
for Eagles Commanders because these are two,
not even necessarily, I think this is going to be
a good game.
- This is a good week one.
- That you can any matchup on the slate,
it could be whatever you wanted to be.
- It could be anything.
- You can look at any single,
and that's why I don't like to try to zero in.
I'm like, these are the four games we're looking about
because I'm 100% with you.
When I look at the week one slate,
and we'll talk about it in a second,
there's like four games from the new slate
where I'm like, oh man, the browns, checks,
give it to me, that's where we're right now.
So the idea of a derrick could sit there earnestly
and be like, I'm really excited for Eagles Commanders
after everything that we've said,
everything that all the stink that's come off
the commanders in the last month or so,
the vibes are just not good.
- It is not good right now, it's so funny.
- I had the most cynical reaction to Eagles Commanders
where the game itself is interesting,
but I was like, why is this Fox's lead game?
Like, I don't know.
- Even when he just said that,
you had a stinky look on your face,
'cause it's a divisional game.
I don't know, we're just, we're so familiar
with these themes.
- You're not wrong, though.
- Because there are mere images of each other
with the offenses.
- That's exactly what it is.
- There is something really intriguing about it.
- Because they will play again in week seven or eight.
I'm not seeing if there's a by-way care.
I'm just looking at when they play again.
- I probably won't care about this matchup as much,
but then because I will have answers
on what does the offense look like.
But until I get those, I am really interested
in what this is going to look like,
'cause we spend two, three months trying to figure out
how much under center can they really go?
How much is Washington gonna really pull down
on the no-huttle stuff that they had been doing?
What is this offensive line gonna look like?
Really, for both of these themes,
obviously Washington has some shuffling around
to do their loose-layer-mean-tuncel.
And it probably doesn't seem like it's going to be a good unit.
Last year was a down year for the Eagles,
but just being in a new offense make them look really good again.
Can they just be a little bit healthier?
What does the Eagles' offense look like
when they don't have, I mean, when AJ Brown
is good and healthy, like the fourth-fifth-best receiver
in the league on their offense?
Like, I'm just. - What if they still do have the fourth or fifth-best receiver
in the league on their offense?
- It's possible.
- I'm gonna say Smith has that in him, I really like him,
but I'm, I mean, that's another question.
Like, is he capable of handling that sort of workload?
Like, that's another, like, does DeVosis Smith
get 13 targets in this game?
Like, are they just like pepper it all to him?
Like, I'm just curious what this is going to look like,
and I'm really excited to see it.
- It's actually a good match up to zero
and not for that exact reason.
We've talked so much about the speculation
around what the offenses are gonna be,
the quality of it, the structure of it.
We're gonna get a lot of answers.
Not lasting answers, maybe, but in terms of
what they're gonna try to do, and who they're gonna try to be,
we will have answers on that by the time half time
comes around on Sunday.
- The quality of it is gonna wax and win over the course of the year,
but we'll at least get like a, oh, I know what I'm looking for
going into week two, week three,
week four with some of these matchups, though.
- It's very telling that the games I wrote down
are all just in the noon window, because for two reasons.
- The noon window rocks.
- That's what football has been.
- The noon window is fantastic.
- There are, so if you look at the noon window,
the only game in the noon window, I guess they're two of them,
where it's not that I'm not interested in them,
it's that we have peak nonsense potential.
Falcon Steelers is peak nonsense potential.
If we're trying to figure out what might be
the fakeest game of week one, the one that features the quarterback
that it's just a stand-in, like he's just there
until the other guy is ready to play.
And so what that means for the Falcons,
I'm curious about that, what the Steelers look like,
that's the game where I just know something is gonna lie to me,
about what happens during that game on Sunday.
- It's actually, it's the second thing I wrote down,
since we're already talking about it.
I'm not usually this guy.
My eyes bugged out of my head when I saw the line on this game.
- What is it?
- It's Steelers three and a half at home.
Does that thing-- - That's way too low.
- Does it not seem incredibly low?
- No, that is a, we have no idea about anything.
- Yeah, commentary on we caught up yet, if I'll season it.
- This feels like the easiest money Vegas has ever given out,
which they don't do, which scares the shit out of them.
- Yeah, that's the wrong way to think about it.
- But so, well, that raises two possible outcomes.
Either this is the easiest money Vegas has ever given out,
and they're drastically overthinking this thing,
or Mike McCarthy's tenure in Pittsburgh
opens with a home loss to the two at Tonga Velo of Falcons.
That'll be the shortest honeymoon of all time, like good God.
So like all of the outcomes in play here
are very, very fun for a neutral observer.
That one has peaking on sense potential,
and the other one in that slate is,
what is Jets Titan's gonna be?
This is the game, neither of these teams are gonna be good,
and somebody has to lose it.
You cannot be the one who gets embarrassed here.
Like if you were the Jets or the Titans,
and you lose like 30 to 10, it's your season 30 over.
Like I don't know, like it's, you can,
you have to at least make this competitive
against the other bad team.
- And we also have the Robert Salor revenge angle of this.
- Yeah, I didn't even consider that.
- They talked about it a little bit this week.
Obviously both sides are trying to downplay it,
but I mean, that is part of this, right?
That is part of the discussion around this game.
- And for half the defensive roster,
it's got to be placed for the Jets.
- Those are the two games that I think
have peaked on sense potential in the noon window.
But to go along with that,
there are a lot of games that I did kind of want to dig
into substantively, and like what I'm watching
and what they might look like.
The first thing I wrote down,
this is the, this is just peak week one bullshit.
The first thing I wrote down was Lion Saints.
How much better does the Saints run game look?
That is peak.
- That is the first thing I wrote down.
- It's very on-brand for that to be your big note
on the Lion's season opener.
- Because here--
- That might be answered on the hangover this week.
- The reason that I went there
is because I have the Saints and the Wins pool.
And I think that there are two things,
two things about this game that I find interesting
and that I'll be watching.
One, the Saints defense was good last year.
And so the idea of good on good
with the Lions offense against the Saints defense,
should we be thinking about that way?
Was the Saints defense a mirage
in the back half of the last season?
Are they gonna be good again?
Is it actually a decent kind of good on good test
in a week one?
That's the first place my mind went.
The second one was in looking at the Saints
and why I thought they could be a mushroom-proof team
this year, it was that if you look
at the overall aggregate numbers
for the Saints offense last season,
they were very bad.
A good chunk of that, it reminds me a little bit
of the discussion we've had about the Texans,
where if you look at the EPA for Dropback numbers,
they're not horrendous.
They're middle of the road.
The run game is what sunk this offense consistently last year.
That's why the numbers overall look so bad
because they were one of the worst run games in the league.
We talked about this with the Texans getting to a place
where could they be a league average run game
and what would that mean for the offense overall?
Shouldn't we be having the same discussion
about the Saints that added David Edwards
that added Travis H. Ann that get Eric McCoy back?
If the Saints are the 16th best rushing offense in the NFL,
combined with what we saw from the passing game last year,
that to me is that they're quickest route
to being a playoff caliber team in the NFC South.
And so if the run game looks good against the Lions team
where the front is what should carry their defense,
doesn't it reframe a little bit
about what our expectations for the Saints might be?
- I've gotten the vibe from you all summer.
You're just, you're very. I'm not saying it's a bad thing.
You're very trusting or you've come across very trusting
that Tyler Schuck is going to be as good or better
than he was in the second half of last year.
And that's completely plausible.
I just think I want to see it.
And so much of who the Saints are going to be
hinges on Schuck's performance, that does matter.
But that's where my brain goes immediately
when I think about the Saints is like,
what does Schuck look like?
- I think a part of my, I don't know if you call it optimism,
but part of my intrigue with them is that
even if he's not substantially better.
- If all of that stuff comes to fruition.
- If all of that stuff surrounds him and proves
and the defense remains good,
I don't need them to be one of the best teams in the league
to justify my interest in them.
I just need them to be an interesting team
in the NSC South.
And I think the most important component of that
is what the line and the run game infrastructure
end up looking like.
- 'Cause we kind of talked about this
on the division previews like in eight wins season
where they look improved on offense
and you feel good about the infrastructure.
Like that is success.
And the run game getting to like average
and Schuck even being marginally better than he is.
Like that's probably all it's going to take.
- Yeah, I just, I think again, I pick them to win the division.
I have some stake in the game when it comes to them
that you guys don't have.
And so I think I'll just be watching the Saints
with the love of curiosity that I've put upon myself,
but I am there.
- I do appreciate that they're getting thrown into the deep end.
Like as fun as a Saints Falcon's game
or a Saints Panthers game might be,
let's start this thing off with a team
that we think highly of.
- All right, let's take our first quick break
and then come back and shout about a few more
of these games that have peaked our interest.
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that wants to dig into the story behind the stats?
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(upbeat music)
- All right, Dave, what's up next for you?
Another game you've got on your radar for week one.
- You mentioned the noon window and I'll talk about it
so you don't have to.
- I love the juxtaposition in Bears Panthers.
- All right, it was not my list.
(laughing)
- I love the juxtaposition in this game
because it's such a tale of two sides of the ball game
where the units that should make both of these teams good
or give them the best shot to be good
are getting good fun.
early season tests, Jalen Phillips going against the Bears offense. The Panthers hold defense.
I mean, I think highly of this unit, I think it could be a unit that makes a substantial leap
in in this season with with Devon Lloyd and Jalen Phillips on the roster. I hope not. Sure.
Well, of course, what and what does the Bears offense look like? How quickly do they hit the
ground running? How much of a test can the Panthers defense give them? And that's good and fun.
But the sicko angle of this might be even better where the Bears are like, if we can do something
with the Panthers offense, it's going to be a long year. And the Panthers offense is like if we
can't do something with the Bears defense, it's going to be a long year. So figuring out which
of those two units gets the, the better of the clown show aspect of this matchup, it's very fun
for me personally. I think you could, if you told me, let's just say the overrunners two and a half,
the amount of times that we get shown the graphic of the Bryson Caleb Williams trade. If it's over,
the Bears win. Yeah. The more time that is it is a good thing. I was so, I'm so enamored with
trying to watch the Bears pass rush get to Bryce Young and trying to, you know, all of that stuff.
I didn't even really think that hard about the trade. I mean, I know it's in the background.
And it'll always be an interesting dynamic in this particular matchup. But I just, these,
these are such one-sided teams and them going against each other at the beginning of the season
is very fun. I will say like, obviously, the Bears defense has the whole litany of issues,
but until because the Carolina Panthers offensive line is so banged up, I'm not sure what they're
going to look like running the ball. And because their best mode of offense is like,
Teterona Mcmillan is down there somewhere. At least the Bears having a corner who can like
match up with him and limit that a little bit. It's like that at least gives the Bears defense
an all-weird matchup like a decent chance to actually like kind of hold their own.
There's not like it's a mad matchup for a bad defense or thing. They are pretty heavily favored
for a road team. Three-point road favorites. The Bears are. Yeah. There's eight games in the
new and window. We're going to have to start thinking about how we distribute them. If the Bears
are going to get their own TV. Can I just jump in really quick here and say that Robert,
the best thing about moving everyone here and having our studio is that now Taff's universally
refers to it as the new and window, the new and games. It's, it's beautiful. We've won.
We won, we won the war. You're in on this, Taff. I mean, you're home, you're home time zone.
I've done both. I can't get behind morning football. I know a lot of people like it. I understand
that you're done with football earlier in the day. It's beautiful. It's nice to be able to go get
dinner when Sunday night football is over. This is this. Do you ever do that? Do you ever really do that?
I did it like twice in the whole time I live there. I know this is God's time zone. It's better.
We'll figure out with the district. I'll spend some time thinking about how the TV should be
situated. But I trust you to figure it out. We also like you can pull it up on your monitor maybe.
I don't know. We got options. I'm okay putting jets tightens on my own monitor as a curiosity.
We have to remember we can re-embrace them. It's a matter of we have four TVs. Yes, we have four
TVs or four games per TV. We have four TVs. There's a lot of different ways that we can do this.
Derek, what's up next for you? The next game, the next match-up, the next element of week one
that you want to talk about. I'll go to my last game specific thing that I really have here.
I'm going to continue doing the bit. I'm excited to see the Kyler Murray Vikings, man. I'm just
really excited leaning into it to look like it's because I think it's going to be good. But I think
it's a mix of I do think it will be good. I'm still not positive what it's going to look like
when it's all put together. How much are they going to lean on the run game? What is the run game
going to look like? What is their play action menu going to look like? Because I do think with Kyler,
it has to be a lot of you're throwing deep stop routes or deep comebacks or deep post routes.
It's stuff that is it's not the Jared Goff we're throwing 10 digs a game sort of offense.
I'm just curious can they sprinkle in at least a little bit of that to keep defenses honest.
I think it's like the perfect mix of I'm excited to see it because it will be good.
And also I just don't know exactly what it's going to look like all the beats of it.
For better or for worse, the takes rating off radiating off of Packers Vikings are going to like
you do with a Geiger counter. Like don't go near it without a Geiger counter because if the Vikings win,
it's like the future is now old man. Get the hell out of here with your Packers bullshit.
It's all over for Green Bay. And if the Packers managed to win, they are not favored. If they
managed to win without Micah and all the stuff we've outlined a dozen times, if they win this game,
the chest thumping from Packers fans is you're going to be able to hear it from from here.
I love there are four games in the late window. We'll have two division games where there's
a lot of intrigue. It's almost like the four, the three dragons meme except it's two and two.
We have two division games where it's like hell yeah. Like let's watch this. There's a lot of
stuff I want to learn from this. And then the other two games are Cardinals Chargers and dolphins
Raiders where those just kind of be hanging off to the side. They'll be around. They'll be on.
They'll be on. They will be on. All the games are always on. But that distribution of games to me
is very funny. All right. Before we move on, let's take one more quick break.
I'm going to stick in the noon window. There's I'm I'm so interested in so many aspects of these
games. And I don't know. Maybe it's just again, because I saw them first, but I kept going back to
so many of the layers to these that I find myself interested in. Bengals box has so many things
that I find intriguing here because they're the units in this game. I think that we have a lot
of questions collectively about them. The box offense against the Bengals defense is in matchup
with two units that need to bounce back in a huge way. Which of those two groups looks better
after an offseason where we expect them to be improved with the box new offensive coordinator,
offensive line healthy. And then that offensive line being healthy immediately presents a worthwhile
test for a Bengals front that just feels completely different than it did last year.
Dan picture today was talking to reporters, the offensive coordinator for Cincinnati. And he
was talking about what it feels like to just be at practice with the defense like that. He was
describing that it's just a visceral difference when you have a defense filled with those sorts of
players compared to what you had last year. And I'm sure the Bucks feel that way about having the
offensive lineback. The Bucks probably feel that way about their own defense. And so you have this
Bucks defense now going against the Bengals offense, which to me is a sneaky one for how both of
those units will look different. How much better does the Bucks front feel? We've talked so much about
the evolution of the Bengals offense and how they're going to do things differently. If we want to
take things to a really granular level, this is a Bucks defense that played with blocked boxes at
the third lowest rate in the league last year per next year. They're going to put bodies into the
line of scrimmage if you're playing in a way that seemingly justifies it. Well, the Bengals are
going to try to play that way. Do the Bucks respond that way? Or do we get a lot of white boxes
because it's Cincinnati? And if that's the case, can the Bengals run the ball into those looks?
That becomes the first real test of this Bengals hypothesis of all right, if you're going to play
that way, we can hammer you on the ground now. If you're not going to play that way, you're going to
give us those one on one matchups. You're going to play some single high against this. Can we throw
the ball over the yard? And so what the Bucks choose to do becomes kind of the first data point
in how teams play against the Bengals and what their pivot off of that plan looks like week one.
I'm jazzed about what the Bucks defense might wait. I mean, I've said for I think the last
month, now they've been a team that, you know, I think over the course of the offseason, like some
teams, you start to sower on or some like you start to look at it in a different way. Not
noticing the Bucks love. The end of the offseason. I was like, I don't know. Dude, I think the Bucks
are going to be kind of good. And so I'm just, I think the Baker contract makes you feel better about
the Bucks. This year, right now, it makes me feel better about the Bucks for like right now in this
one. Ironically, probably, I was the first that probably because they got they had done too.
So I feel like the fact that things are a little bit settled. I'm probably as good for them.
The irony is I argued throughout the spring for resigning Baker. And in the big picture,
I think it's good. But isn't Baker better when he's pissed off?
Oh, that's good. That's good. Maybe. Yeah. Well, Baker will convince himself. He's still mad.
It took this long anyway. He's got $120 million. He's going to find out.
Not going to be okay. Baker Mayfield is going to find a slight to amplify and live off of.
He will. But with the defense, I am curious about like how they want to go about stuff.
Because Cincinnati, they draw the most like too high cloud type of cover because, yeah,
Jamar, Jason, T Higgins, why wouldn't they? And both typically is a guy who like he wants to
crowd the box and he wants to have a bunch of guys in there. And that's last year. I think
they did that in part because they were so bad that it was like we have the only way we can stop
like win on defensive, stop the run on first down. And like, they've done that pretty consistently.
But that's the thing is like they always know exactly that is that that is it. That's part of
their identity. Right. That's what Bulls does. But I am curious does like, does a guy like Rubin
Bain who can buy you a little bit more space with the way that he sets the edge? Does that help you?
Does does does Josiah Schroder who can come back and take back space and maybe buy a room for
two high safeties coming down to the box? Like do they play a little bit more of that stuff?
They're still always going to be a single high field of box team. That's what Todd Bulls does. But
a couple of more change ups. I am curious to see if they throw that in.
My favorite wrinkle in Bucks Bengals is that it's a match up of a team that rips out of the gate
every year against the team that takes a month to get going every year. I'm so glad you got that
up. The Bucks have never been good in September. The Bucks are 11 and five in the first month of
the season and four in O in openers under Todd Bulls. The Binkles are six and 10 and one and three
in the last four years. So I mean week one can be a liar, but like the Bucks have been better
at this over the last four years.
years. My cope to that is that this is one of the most normal off seasons the Bengals have
ever had every single year. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true.
That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is
That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true. That is true.
Every single year, there's something happening with the Bengals this time of year and this season,
it was actually pretty spotless in terms of what their August felt like.
I did you got anything else for me? I mean, we've gotten this far. Well, first of all,
I can't believe we haven't mentioned Ravens Colts. I was about to. That was next to my list.
I'll save Ravens Colts for you and I'll do the Sunday night game, Cowboys Giants.
It was already interesting and obviously it sucks that Tyler Smith had to go to IR with his
thumb injury but taking the best piece of your offensive line out before you play this front
should complicate things and I think, I don't know, I think this is the most excited I've been
about a Cowboys Giants game in a long time because like the Giants have just been a speed bump for
the Cowboys for a decade at this point. I mean, is that week one game two years ago? It was all
the way back in 2023. The Florida didn't have three years ago. Yeah, which that's the funny thing.
Like the Giants have tried to convince themselves that like this year will be different for
three or four years at this point and that 40-to-nothing game was the ultimate example of like,
just calm down. You don't have to be back overnight. But I do think that this could be a stressful
affair and not a lot of Cowboys Giants games have been stressful other than ironically that overtime
game last year was wild. I needed to not be a stressful affair. Well, yeah, you're your body
and on the Cowboys now, but it'll be fun watching DAC navigate this pressure, which I think he
can do. But I think the Giants can bring some juice against that. And I will say
sometimes this like Fangio Mentor style of defense where you're playing a lot of too high,
the teams with the running quarterbacks give them some issues whether that's as a scrambler or
whether that is in the design run game like Dart himself played pretty well against Mentor's
Chargers last year. Yeah, especially as a runner. And so Parker kind of instilling that similar style
of defense, I do think that there's a chance that especially in a week one, it's just like a
weird asking where he's able to run for like 80 yards and just kind of pull off some plays that way.
We talk about this all the time on the show, but like the way we do the show means unless it is a
Titanic Sunday night football, we're probably only paying half attention while we work on a
dozen other things. Obviously, I'm going to be invested in the Cowboys game. But we're going to talk
about the Sunday night game this week for week one. We'll talk about this game. Well, that's great to
know, but I just I love the mental image of you being right there with me like investing.
Oh, I have to count points or two. I already have so many regrets about it. But at this point,
we're in. So there's no going back this week or 40. I don't care if it was week one is the
week to do it for sure. I just want to see the offense come out and look like it's helping.
That's the entire because I think people have kind of misconstrued. I can't remember what it was.
I joked about the Tower Smith injury earlier this week about how I've been in the Cowboys for
like 10 days and then this happens. And people I go, well, you know, it's all about the Christian
Parker part of this anyway. It's like not really like the this is rooted in the Cowboys being
the second best offense or the best offense in the league. That's where all of this starts.
And so even if you can harbor some excitement and some enthusiasm and some optimism about the
giant defense being better, which I absolutely think you can. I don't think that improvement is
so big that the Cowboys offense that a lot of us are collectively excited about. You pick that
number two in the offense's draft. Yeah. Should come out and really be able to have some success
in this game. In verse of your Saints question two, all eyes on the Giants run defense without
Dexter Lawrence. Dermain Edmonds is there. Arvel Reese is there. They've added some bodies in the
middle. And now the Cowboys don't have Tyler Smith. Yeah. If they run all over them anyway,
that's troubling if you care about the Giants. Yeah. This is again, maybe a little bit of coping,
but TJ Bass is a competent backup offensive. He's played a decent amount. If you're going to
have a guy that you have to slot in there, there are worse options to have on your interior
defensive offensive line. And there's just a chance that both BB and Booker are better this year
than they were last year. At least that would be the hope. Yeah. And Booker was hurt for a
good. Yeah. Exactly. So I was weirdly not very worried about the Tyler Smith thing. Like assuming
he'll be back in four to six weeks, like I think they can weather that that leaves one of us.
You didn't have any other game specific stuff. I'm going to ride all the two more here. Ravens Colts.
So many things about this. What does the Ravens defense look like under Jesse Mentor? How do they play?
What is the play style? How do they approach this? How do they use certain guys? What is the overall
quality of this thing? And the fact that on the other side of that matchup is an offense that
at its best last year was one of the best in the entire league. And the quarterback is apparently
healthy. Well, Alec Pierce is going to play in this game. What does the Colts offense look like
initially? Is that something where they come out of the gate? Strong is that negated by a Ravens
defense that might be significantly better than even we think going into the season. And so
what those two units look like very curious about it. And then the Ravens offense period has been
an object of curiosity over this entire summer. What do they look like? What does the Declan Dole
version of this thing? How quickly does Lamar Jackson take to it? Does this very quickly become a
really dangerous offense? Did they spot it a little bit out of the gate? Bleeding into a new
approach on that side of the ball. So that game to me is just one big mystery box. There's so
many different things. I'm really curious to get a first glimpse at between those two teams.
I am also pretty excited for this one. I think with the Ravens, it's I think Lamar Jackson will
like look healthier and look good. And I think the offense will be good. It to me at a matter
is it it is a matter of like construction? Like how much are they going under center? And how much
and how quickly do they look? And how quickly does it all feel comfortable and cohesive? That's the
thing. Is this like a little bit like early last year where it's like kind of janky, but they
can get some really explosive plays and kind of see what the offense is supposed to be, but it
doesn't feel cohesive. Or is this like you remember the dolphins like week one or two game? They
played like four years ago. They were just immediately like, oh, they're going to be the best
offense in the NFL. Like there's a chance that they could do something like that. And so they
could this be the game that last year's Colts had in a week one. Yeah. The Ravens offense. I mean,
now that's possible. Absolutely. There's going to be one of those. Like you said, and figuring out
who that is over the course of Sunday, I think is going to be fun. There was a two or three year stretch
where the Ravens looked like Ohio State playing ball state in week one for a few years where it was
just like, it's not supposed to look this easy, even if the team you're playing is not good. I don't
know if that's going to happen against the Colts, but it would be fun to see the Ravens ham at
that level. It's also just something that we haven't really drilled down on specifically over the
course of the offseason because I think there still is so much collective optimism about the Ravens.
Even new coach for the first time in a decade and a half, almost two decades. What does that mean
for the Ravens? What feels different because Jesse Minter is there a part of the reason that
I think people are still picking them to go to the Super Bowl or be a really good team is that
there's enough carryover and enough institutional trust in who they've been, but there's a chance this
feels different. Is it for better? Is it for worse? There are that is a question looming over both the
bills and the Ravens where I think we ascribe a certain level of consistency and familiarity to them
because the quarterbacks are there, but in reality, there is a lot of stuff that's new in both
of those places. What does that mean and how quickly do we get a sense of what that is for both
of these teams? Last thing for me in the noon window, this is very simple. Browns Jags also to me
has potential for nonsense, and that's just in part because the Browns front against the Jags
offensive wine to me is a very good week one test for a real, that's even called a relative
weakness, a potential trouble spot for a team that has point-off aspects. Yes. If the Jaguar
season goes poorly, it's because the offensive line is not good enough. That's kind of like the
long, I think that that's like the easiest market to put there. And so yeah, if you don't look good
immediately against a Cleveland front, that is like good, but no longer special. I think without
miles, Garrett, it's like that's going to be a problem if they just get beat. But the defensive
tackles are, I mean, from the Collins plays close to the level he played out last year.
He was banged up over there. It was banged up in this off season. But if he, if he's playing well
again, if Mason Graham is better, Jared versus still here, there are still players on this fun
that provide a good test for again, that that's one of the swing units of the entire season.
Is the Jaguar offensive line? And so this being the week one test, I think is particularly notable.
I also think, I mean, I think the Jags are the biggest favorite of the week. They're eight and a
half point favorites. They're the chargers. Oh, the chargers are big favorites, too. You're right.
Either way, they're one of the biggest favorites of the week. And I think, you know, I bet they'll
be a popular pick for survivor people if you play survivor. And I can imagine a world where people
are like, how are the Jags struggling with the no miles Garrett Brown's defense? And it's like,
no, like that's, that's a reasonable thing that could happen. Like if you've been paying attention
to both of these units, but having said that, it would, it would be fun if the Jags just got out
to the races, too. You had some non-game specific things that you wanted to bring up as part of this
discussion. Yeah. Mine is which of the rookies is just immediately like clearly a guy. Because last
year, if we remember, Tyler Warren tied in for the Colts in a week one had seven catches for 76 yards.
And a couple of them were like contest, like contested, like went up, he went up for like a
wheel route and Colin got slammed by the safety, like, through the back of his ribcage and like,
still hot. They rolled out the whole thing for him.
Yes, they were like, he's the offense.
He did everything.
And it was, it was just a, and that's the thing.
It wasn't just like, he was good.
It was like, oh, they're going to build this out of him.
A mecca at Buka for the bucks caught six passes for 67 yards
and two touchdowns, including the game winner
on like a deep post route.
Those two guys were just immediately like,
oh, they're going to be very good for their offense.
It's an obviously the cult thing sputters
for different reasons like Buka gets a little bit banged up.
But it was obvious that those guys were going to be good.
I'm just curious to see who it is this year.
Do you have any guesses as to who that might be?
Um, so you're a little invested in like an eight catch
for ADR carnal tape game against the Jets, maybe,
because they don't have good corners.
So yes.
And so even if I've got questions about what the Titans offense
is going to look like, I do think that there's a chance
that he can just get enough targets
against some shaky corners that that's going to work.
Um, then you want to against these defensive tackles.
I don't expect him to be good necessarily
because that's a really tough matchup with Buckner and Stewart.
But that's one of those like, if he looks good immediately
against that duo, it's like, they've got a guy.
He's somebody that we just haven't talked that much about this summer.
You want as we've talked about the Ravens
and just why they could feel different.
I thought he looked good.
It's easier to do.
He's just somebody that we haven't talked that much about.
I watched him against Philly and he looked exactly
how I expected him to look on draft night.
The idea that they're starting center right now is Jovon Gwyn.
You know, I think that's that people have been more concerned
with that and the Danny Pinter part of this.
And I think we have been about what you want.
I could look like and how different the physicality
of their interior could be when John Simpson.
And I think it is just a little bit of like kind of what you're saying, David,
like how we talked about him as a prospect
where it's just this, I think when we talked about the Ravens interior,
we're just like, oh, they fixed the guards.
They got some guys you can play and they're like,
we don't even really consider the fact that you want as a rookie.
Like we kind of just think like he's going to step in there
and the ceiling will see as he develops.
But it's like, it's like, he's going to be good.
The floor, it was the entire conversation about him in the draft process.
Yeah, he was like one of the cleanest prospects in the entire draft.
I don't think we really explored what a ceiling case
might mean for him and for the Ravens.
That's just not something we've talked much about.
And so getting a sense of that early, I think it's going to be a fun thing to watch.
What else did you have anything else?
Uh, no, that was that was pretty much it for me.
It's like, yeah, which just which rookies are going to pop because they're always
are a couple that are just immediately that guys awesome.
I actually also do think Caleb Downs, but against an offense that like,
we're unsure how good they're going to be.
If he just goes to nuclear week one, I'm like, oh, man, I know we're going to make
more content between now and then.
So it might it might come up, but it feels worth saying good job schedule people, Broncos,
chiefs, Monday night football, Patrick Mahomes.
I'm at the time people were like, is he even going to be back?
Is it going to be a race to get him onto the field?
Not even close.
So Mahomes making his debut at home against the Broncos who
finally took the division away from them last year, uh, that is that's cinema as they like
to say.
All right.
That is all we've got as we gear up for week one of the 2026 season.
Very excited for tonight, according to some Wednesday again, very excited for tomorrow.
And then we will all be here all day on Sunday with we live Thursday night and Sunday nights
on YouTube encourage you guys to come hang out with us after the games wrap up until then.
That's all we got.
Appreciate you guys listening.
We'll talk to you soon.
Thanks for tuning in.
Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.
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We'll see you next time.
Podcast Summary
Key Points:
The week one preview focuses on excitement and curiosity rather than speculative team analyses, highlighting matchups with high potential for unexpected or "fake" outcomes.
Games like Bills vs. Texans, Eagles vs. Commanders, and Steelers vs. Falcons are seen as prime examples of peak nonsense due to early-season unpredictability, new coaching staffs, and roster turnover.
The show emphasizes that first-month results are often misleading, with many of the most anticipated outcomes being either purely coincidental or short-lived, and that the true evolution of teams will unfold over the course of the season.
Summary:
The podcast presents a lively, curiosity-driven preview of the 2026 NFL season opener, shifting from traditional team analysis to a celebration of football’s excitement and unpredictability. Rather than predicting outcomes, hosts Robert Mays, Dave, and Derek focus on games with high potential for "fake" results—such as the Bills vs. Texans, Eagles vs.
Commanders, and Steelers vs. Falcons—where early-season chaos, new coaching, and roster changes create ideal conditions for absurdity. They highlight how these matchups are not only entertaining but also serve as key tests for new offensive and defensive systems.
The discussion underscores that week one results are often misleading, with many early-season narratives fading as teams settle into their true identities. The hosts also note the enduring tradition of questioning which games are truly meaningful versus just hype, citing past instances like the 2021 Saints vs. Packers game or the 2023 Colts vs.
Dolphins result. They emphasize that while the first month may be the most "fake" due to turnover, it’s also the most fun, offering fans a chance to witness real growth and evolution. The show concludes with excitement for the Ravens vs.
Colts game, where both teams are undergoing significant changes, and for rookie performances that could redefine early-season narratives. The tone remains upbeat and reflective, celebrating football’s unpredictability and the joy of watching teams find their rhythm.
FAQs
The game is exciting due to the Bills' historically poor record in Houston, Josh Allen's struggles against strong defenses, and the Texans' ability to consistently dismantle the Bills' offense. It's a high-stakes matchup with significant implications for both teams' early-season performance.
It's a divisional rivalry with deep offensive uncertainty, especially after recent offseason changes. Both teams are rebuilding their offenses, making it a prime opportunity to see how new systems and players perform under pressure in their first game.
The game is considered peak nonsense due to the Steelers' low line of 3.5 and the potential for a massive upset. Both teams are seen as underperforming, and the odds are so extreme that it's widely regarded as one of the most likely fake results in Week 1.
A strong run game could be the foundation for the Saints' transformation, especially with new additions like David Edwards and Travis Hines. A successful run game could shift expectations and make the Saints a serious contender in the NFC South.
It offers a clash between two teams with contrasting offensive strategies. The Bears' pass rush and the Panthers' offensive line are key factors, making it a fun test of defensive resilience and early-season offensive efficiency.
Both teams are undergoing significant changes—Ravens under new head coach Jesse Mentzer and Colts with a healthy quarterback. The game offers a first look at how new systems and coaching philosophies perform in high-pressure conditions.
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