🧠 Week 1 DFS Strategy (Top Plays, Sims & Sleepers)

FanDuel is now available everywhere in the U.S. So you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are. Including these places. Make this your most rewarding season ever with FanDuel. Age and location restrictions apply. Product availability varies by market. See FanDuel.com for eligibility. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Oh baby, we are so back. DFS Fridays kicking off here with the week one edition. And we have a four hour stream on tap for you guys today. We are kicking things off as we always do. With my guy Jam to Win from One Week Season. Breaking down the slate on DraftKings. Going position by position. Looking at the best plays. And then of course building a lineup on DraftKings. Also, we're going to check out the new Cascading Projections feature over at One Week Season. Which I think is going to be really cool. Really fun to use as we build our lineup. After that, Yudakow from Bully the Sims coming on. We will pick his brain about what he likes in week one. And then a new part of the show this year. Mike Leone from Establish the Run. He'll be coming on. We'll mess around with the solver. The things he's seeing. Probably going to focus a little on FanDuel over in that block. And then finally, of course, my guys, the Badge Bros. Off and on the clock. Breaking down the slate on Underdog. I'm Pete. These are DFS Fridays. Let's get to it. Pete is one of the greatest depositors. I've ever seen. Trust the process. Let's go. I got auto-matched with Levin Chan. Bullshit. I just go the other way. In that 66, I win all the money. All the money. If I had 150 lineups, I'd win too. AP, call spot. But it's your head like KD. Bust it. Bust it. Bitch, go bust it. And I had 10 pipes with me in Russia. Hey, everyone. All right, JM. We have a few best ball drafts under our belt already. But now, we're going to talk about some of the best ball drafts. We're going to talk about some of the best ball drafts under our belt already. But now, it is time to set our sights on salary cap, DFS. You've been hard at work. You've been tweeting up a storm. You have emerged from your winter or summer hibernation, I should say. How are we feeling about week one? Oh, man. Pete, I'm ready. You know, I don't know if you heard this. Kyle Shanahan trying to figure out what day of the week it was because a coach's brain is so organized toward Sunday is Sunday, right? And your whole week is prepared around that. But my NFL week is kind of like that. So, having the Wednesday night game, putting out the player grid a day early. Football mixed up. It was like, wait, how is it not Saturday yet? How are we not a day away from football? But we're almost there. We're almost to Sunday. And, yeah, man, last couple years, week one, last few years, we had to record a little early. So, we're excited to chop it up with you on a Friday this year. You used to have the drafts in Las Vegas last year. You were big-timing us. And now, we're just here on a Friday, regular week. Yep. YouTube did not secure an NFL game this year as part of their deal. So, you guys, you get me on a Friday. I'm here with JM, which means we do get a little bit more, you know, injury news. We actually have. I feel like, compared to previous week ones, you expect teams to enter the season relatively healthy. And, like, even if you log into your, you know, season-long matchups or even DraftKings and scroll down, the amount of players with Q tags and stuff next to it certainly seems more than usual. How do you think about that generally, just kind of the health of some of these guys? Obviously, every situation is different, but it does kind of complicate things. Yeah. Well, I mean, the biggest things is, like, Brock Bauer's news in the middle of the week. And then we get Tua news that we're not sure on as of yesterday. I haven't even looked at that today. And Josh Jacobs' news. Like, he's technically not suspended yet. Like, he could still play, I think, from what I hear. So, yeah, it's – all that's a little bit weird. It's kind of one of those control what you can control. I'm not – like, Q tags, I'm not super bothered by. Unless it's something like – I want to think about somebody like Kenyon Sadiq, right, who – he's a rookie. He missed a huge chunk of – do we want to talk about the Jets already? He missed a huge chunk of training camp and all of preseason. And you're like, okay. This dude's projecting in projections as the tight end one for the Jets in week one. But realistically, do we think he's going to step in and play a full allotment of snaps as a rookie tight end in week one after missing all that time? So, little things like that we can pay attention to. But, yeah, on the Q tags, generally speaking, I'm going to treat it like a Q tag midseason and assume that, you know, all we can know is what they put out there. And for the most part, probably not that big of a deal here in week one. But what I do try to pay attention to is these early games where when you watch the Thursday night football game or this year we get Wednesday night and Thursday night, like you're reminded of how much it's going to go differently than we expect. And I think that's what I try to get into my brain when I'm – like when I've been messing with cascading projections this week and inputting game scores and being like, okay, which games could actually go a little bit differently than I'm expecting? How could this game play out? What would that look like for projections? And so, yeah, that's the other thing I'm trying to wrap my head around is just that these real games are going to look different than the models we have in our heads. All right. Let's go ahead and – Let's do a little slate overview. That's what we tend to like to start with here, get the groundwork laid. I should also mention right off the top, JM, everything at one week season – or correct me if maybe not everything, but all of the content is free this week? Yeah. Content, the cascading projections, the ownership projections, the optimizer, everything except the Sims because they got to pull the – like a pull on the engine every time you run the Sims. So got to pay for the Sims. Everything else on the site is free. Everything else on the site is free in week one. Every year, man. Just come hang out with us, see if it's a fit for you. And yeah, as I always say, right, Pete, the site's not for everybody because we're not just giving out picks. We're kind of talking through strategy and DFS roster construction and all that. Some people just want the picks. Some people don't. But you can check us out and kind of see if we're a fit for you. We like to do that week one since we are a different site than some of the other sites out there. I just dropped that link in the chat. It's in the show notes as well, whether you're watching on YouTube or after the fact via audio. I do. We post the audio for these shows on the In A Vacuum podcast feed. Hey, Pete, do people listen to the audio only? Yeah, they do. You know, it's always like I feel like people really like the YouTube and I used to not understand that. But now the podcasts I listen to, if they have a YouTube, I will listen on YouTube instead of putting up on a podcast feed. It's just kind of a strange thing. I know. It's a mixture. And one of the nice things when I – so I upload it to Spotify and I upload the video there. So a lot of people will toggle back. Back and forth between video and audio on Spotify. So, you know, my mission is always to service the audio listeners in addition to the YouTubers. So we will cover all of our ground there. So, yeah, go check out One Week Season. Just give them your email and then enjoy the site. See if you like it. And then we can, you know, get you squared away for next week. But, JM, we pulled up the slate here. It's always, you know, hard to know where to start with week one because we have a big slate. We have a deep slate. Like, there's so many viable players. Obviously, with injuries and buys, things really get constricted. You know, when we hit week seven, week eight. But right now, man, it feels like a choose-your-own-adventure. What is catching your eye here for week one? Yeah, well, I try to think about – so, you know, I play 5K to 6K a weekend. And primarily, it's going to be contests of 2,000 and fewer entries. Or at least most of my bankroll is in contests of 2,000 and fewer entries. And so, on this show, we kind of pick what we're going to talk about on a given week. And we try to be clear about where. I'm thinking about different types of plays. But especially on a week like this, I'm going to talk most specifically about either those types of contests or the core that you would choose to build around for larger field contests. And so, what I want to be thinking about is how do we stack as much certainty as we can. And so, that means certainty in terms of likelihood of points. That means certainty in terms of role security, concentration of usage. And so, yeah, there's so much to think about this week. But, like, where do we have the most clarity is one of the things that I want to think about. Or clarity in terms of, like, okay, so we were looking at this the other night in Discord. 65% of games in the NFL have finished under the total in week one across the last four years. So, like, of these 12 games on the main slate, mathematically, statistically, historically, like, eight of them are going to finish under their total, right? And so, how can we think about which games are likely to finish over their total? One of the things we can think about is coaches who have an aggressive mindset. Coaches who are. Actively forward-leaning in their play calling. So, think about the Bears, right? If the Bears take a step forward, we know that Ben Johnson wants to be aggressive. He wants to try to blitz the opponent on the scoreboard. Well, what if Caleb Williams and the Bears offense have taken a step forward here, right? Against a Panthers defense that they match up well against and should be able to put up points again. So, I want to think about things like that. We know the Lions are going to try to score points. We know that the Bears are going to have a forward-leaning posture. We assume the Chargers are going to have a forward-leaning posture. We know the Bengals don't have a forward-leaning posture. And that. If their defense is better this year, this could be a team that's producing a lot of 27-point games just because of the way Zach Taylor calls games. And so, we want to kind of think about all those things as well on a week like this where there's a lot of unknowns. So, StackUp, what are the things we do know and how can we react to that? We do have some of the top game totals here on the screen. Compliments of the slate summary here at One Week Season. You guys can check this out at the One Week Stats tab here. But the five premier games, at least based on total, Tampa Bay. At Cincinnati, 50.5. Over-under, New Orleans at Detroit, 49.5. Dallas at the Giants, 48 points. Baltimore at Indy, 47.5. Chicago at Carolina, 46.8. And also worth mentioning, a few of the other teams with really big implied team totals, namely just the Chargers, who are implied to score 28.5, even though that is a lower over-under there. On a slate like this, JM, where there are so many ways to go, do you find yourself wanting to kind of really pick your. spots from each game. Or is this, hey, let's over stack the one game we think can shoot out and really, you know, reduce the number of things we have to get right? I mean, you could play it either way. The chances of a game shooting out are a little bit lower on a week like this. But if we're going to think about what are the teams that could create that type of game environment, ideally, what I struggle with on a week like this is like, what are the defenses going to look like, right? Like we know that the Ravens can produce shootouts, but if we look through Chargers game logs last year, we know that they didn't have top end talent, but with that Jesse Minter defense, it's going to be hard to score more than 23 points against them, right? So can we see the Ravens putting up 35 or 38 against the Colts? I think we can. Lou Anarumo is going to be aggressive. He's going to mix things up, but that's a code that the Ravens can crack. But can the Colts keep pace with them? Can it turn into that type of game? I have a harder time seeing that. Same thing with the Eagles. I think the Eagles, that's another team with a higher implied team total forward leaning posture on offense. But can Washington keep up with them against that great Philly defense? Again, that brings me back to this Bears and Panthers game where if the Bears, if Caleb Williams has taken a step forward, which is, you know, pretty good shot at that having happened, then I think that the Bears can do well in this game. And I also think that the Panthers can respond and keep pace against that Bears defense. The Saints and the Lions are similar in that regard. We know that the Lions will be aggressive on offense. I think that the Saints have a good shot at keeping pace there. And so what I'm trying to think about is where. We have the most role certainty and then where we have game environments that are likely to. OK, so take the Saints, the Bears or the Lions were bottom four last year in opponent pass or bottom four opponent rush rate and opponent rush rate over expected. So there are past funnel defense just naturally right in a neutral situation. They're past funnel defense. Then we expect the Saints to be chasing and then Jordan Tyson's out. And so we know that this is concentrated on a lava and Juwan Johnson. So spots like that where we have certainty. And then. Obviously, touchdowns are a big part of DFS. So who's expected to score the most touchdowns? And then where do we have the best pathways forward to those touchdowns actually showing up? So I've been thinking a lot about that this week. So these top six teams, which is in order to be the Chargers, the Lions, the Bengals. And then I think it goes Ravens, Eagles, Bears, or maybe it's Ravens, Bears, Eagles. But like that group right there, I'm putting a lot of focus on pulling players from those teams because that's where I see the highest likelihood of touchdowns piling up. So that's where I see the highest likelihood of touchdowns piling up. Yeah. Why don't we go ahead and get right into it with the quarterback position? I mean, we got to start at the top because it's interesting having Josh Allen and we get him in a not too attractive matchup, like right off the rip here at 7K. If I know you, JM, I have a feeling that Josh Allen is kind of out of your player pool this week. Yeah. And again, like if you're going to, let me mention this real quickly and we'll look at this in a little bit. We're going to look at this in a little bit. But in cascading projections, I put in the 80th percentile outcome for team score for every team on the slate. And even with that, like even if you say, okay, what is Buffalo's 80th percentile outcome here? Josh Allen comes out fifth in raw point projection at quarterback and one of the bottom quarterbacks in point per dollar. So it's like, we didn't get a price down for Josh Allen here. And so he's still priced where Josh Allen is priced. And then he's going against his Houston defense. So if I'm. If I'm taking shots on the Millie maker and I look and I see Josh Allen is going to be 1% owned, then maybe I'm like, okay, what's his 98th percentile outcome? What's his 95th percentile outcome? And I start thinking about that. But like in a spot where I'm not trying to beat 200,000 people for first place, and I'm trying to beat 2000 people or 5,000 people, this isn't a spot that I feel like I need to go to in order to win the slate. Yup. Yeah. And I think he is going to be extremely low on there. And like you said, I think everywhere. That I've looked at projections just does not look like a strong value, but some of these other guys up at the top in good spots, obviously burrow at Cincinnati Lamar at Indy. And then let's include, you know, hurts and Daniels up here as the other guys over 6,500. Who of these guys could you see yourself playing in some of your tighter builds? Yeah. I think that if, if Daniels hits, I'm going to get exposure to him through my hurts and Saquon rosters, which I expect to have a lot of exposure to those two guys kind of bet on a bounce back to that Philly offense. But all three of these other guys, burrow Lamar and Jalen hurts are in really good spots in terms of potential for raw production, potential for point per dollar production, and even just that opportunity to be the quarterback who puts the slate out of reach. So yeah, all three of these guys are central to my build. The big thing with Lamar is like, who do you pair him with? Uh, we looked at this in the journal this week, but over the last two years, Zay flowers is 26th out of 26 quarterbacks. We're back wide receiver, one pairings and correlation. So Lamar's top third of his games in this stretch, uh, Zay flowers score goes down and he's the only wide receiver one. And that's the case for it. So we explore this a lot on the site last year of like, you don't play Lamar with Zay flowers, but then who do you play Lamar with? Cause like the guy who correlates best, best of them is Mark Andrews. And that takes a lot of trust at this point in time. So, uh, yeah, Lamar is interesting for that fact, uh, interesting also Lamar and Mark Andrews or J Jalen. Hertz plus Dallas Goddard is exactly the same price. And so it's kind of a question of like, which one do you trust more in that regard? I trust this ultimate ceiling on the Mar more, but like the median outcome favors the Eagles there. So, uh, yeah, a lot to play around with there. And then, uh, Burrow we'll, we'll get to him a little bit more later in terms of like talking about how to think about the Cincinnati game and the Cincinnati stack. But, uh, all three of those guys are on my radar this week. Yeah. As far as if we want to, I mean, there's so many spots we can talk about. Um, you know, if we want to look at some of the, the value plays as well, or we can kind of stick in the mid range, uh, obviously I think golf is going to be fairly popular just with that team, total matchup, six K Herbert with their massive team, total 6,100. I think you could say, you know, Trevor Lawrence and Kyler Murray offer some intrigue down here as well. What else are you kind of liking in this mid tier? Well, what's the, you've been doing battle Royale drafts this, uh, a sore subject, sore subject. Hey, what the, what the heck is, is, is, what are you going to do next summer? Are you going to fly to Oakland to do best ball draft? I, you know what? I've been, you know, observing how other touts do it and they're willing to fly every single week to get their, their entries in. So yeah, I'm going to have to take a page. When did this start? Did it, did it kick in already? Is it like kicked in? You can't do battle Royale even. I can't, I can't. Yeah. If you're like underdog flagship brand ambassador, dude, this is crazy. I don't care about you. You bet. You bet in your foxhole for the past week, but this has been a big topic of conversation around here. I've done, you know, probably 15 hours of live streams about it this past week. So we, um, you know, we're moving on. We're healing. People are still wondering, am I going to be talking underdog? Yes. Often on the clock with the badge bros. All that's different is that John and Nez have to do the screen sharing and not me. It's going to be okay, everyone, but thank you for twisting the knife here, jam right off the, off the rip. I love it. Yeah, no, I, uh, you know, I, I met Jason Robbins at like a live DraftKings event in 2015, you know, before DraftKings was huge back when he would like go around and talk to everybody to introduce himself. Cause like create goodwill. And, uh, and I still have his email address every once in a while. I'm like, like, should I shoot him an email? Do I have any sway here to be like, let's get DraftKings back in Oregon. But I know I don't, but I feel like you with underdog, like you should be able to be like, uh, Hey guys, come on, Massachusetts, let's carve out something here. So, well, you know, you know, that meme, uh, where the guys like holding hands with his girlfriend, uh, and it's underdog holding hands and then he's looking over his shoulder and then it's prediction markets back there. That's, that's the main, uh, exactly. I'm sorry, man. Uh, so have you paid attention to battle Royale drafts? Like what are the streets doing this week with quarterbacks? Yes. Uh, I mean, it, it's kind of the same as usual, right? Where you have, um, the top guys condensing and then you'll get guys like Kyler Murray, who's like virtually undrafted, you know? Shuck. So yeah, you can have a lot of fun. Um, just with the nature of the contest where only six guys get drafted. So like of that mid tier, um, you know, guys like Kyler Lawrence golf, where do you gravitate? Yeah. I'm not, you know, I've, I like Caleb Williams more than those guys. You know, I like, I just think, I think that the bears are going to call an aggressive game. And so I'm going to have, I don't know if I'm going to have a Caleb Williams roster. Like I'm definitely going to have a burrow, a Lamar. A Hertz. And I think like my game changer roster is going to be one of those guys. And so that'll be like my largest allocation of bankroll. Uh, and I might get my exposure to my bet on the bears offense through Bryce young and say like, okay, Bryce young has to have a good game. If this game is going to develop the way that we want it to, but it's just like a way to be thinking ahead, like a month ahead of who are the offenses that people are on in a month. And one of the clearest things we can understand is how a play caller calls a game, how they attack a game, you know? And so, um, that's one side in this mid tier, but I don't know if it'll end up being Caleb or Bryce or both. Uh, and then Kyler. Yeah. I just think Kyler's so interesting because what if right is kind of how I look at it. Um, I still have a hard time like in this game environment, I have a hard time seeing it turning into a shootout, like a real shootout, which is what we would really want in order for him to put up a tournament winning type of score and in order for Justin Jefferson to see enough volume, but I still can't. I can't shake that what if question. So I don't know that I'll end up there but i do think it's really sharp um daniel jones a guy who pops in projections i'm not going to play him myself on tighter builds but it does stand out to me every time i kind of flip through things and see that the math sort of likes daniel jones obviously not not knowing that he's coming off of a torn achilles and uh not knowing that jesse mentor is taking over the ravens defense but just like generally speaking uh he should stand out a little bit and then um if we want a dumpster dive you got a guess on who i like down at the down at the lowest end let me see well yeah because you're a geno smith you're a jets guy i honestly think that the jets offense is going to be um is going to be like not good not good right but like solid this year um i've always liked frank reich and ever since his comeback in the playoffs pete do you how old are you pete do you remember this frank reich magic moment you are just like every possible way to stick the needle you know today i'm 39 years old i don't know you're like you're a young man i'm 39 years old okay all right yeah all right is that young i think i don't think so i think no but you have a young spirit as do i i'm 41 so you know you and i were right here uh i don't know frank reich you know did did you watch that playoff game against the oilers when he when he came in and 35 to three at halftime and brought the bills back uh yeah i've always liked frank reich but he's a good i think he's a good offensive coordinator and the um and i think of this jets i mean obviously this jets team has weapons and i don't think the defense will be good so this isn't maybe the best week because the titans are gonna have this solid defense that's gonna try to prevent big plays and then i don't really trust the titans offense that much but that game is very interesting to me generally speaking and you don't need a lot from that game in order for geno to hit so uh garrett wilson i pulled this up yesterday in the player grid but uh across the last take every wide receivers last 25 games and then filter out davante adams games with the jets right where garrett wilson wasn't the alpha so garrett wilson's last 25 games without davante adams every other wide receivers last 25 games across the nfl only jamar chase and amon raw saint brown have more targets per game than garrett wilson so we know that he's going to command targets in this offense and i think geno can get him the ball but uh yeah geno's kind of the guy down low and so again like it's like these top three guys i mentioned the three guys below josh allen are like very sharp ways to play the slate um but i do have like a little bit of interest i might have a little interest in tyler shuck uh some interest in kyler murray some interest in you know you can do a lot with a geno roster to where if he goes for 26 points which he's capable of doing then you've got a stacked roster with pricing the way that it is in week one so uh yeah i mean i think that he's interesting as well yeah m stockton asking about tyler shuck as well i have a feeling he's going to be popular just the price of the access to that game environment i mean great value alabe is an awesome stacking partner it just feels like a comfy place to get to yeah agreed you know it's interesting in week one right because the pricing is so tight that like you can pay 1k more and get jalen hertz you can pay 1200 more and get lamar and like if shuck puts up if this were week 11 and you paid this price for shuck and you put 24 points you know you'd be like yeah dude i got a good score but lamar can go out and drop 38 and and that wouldn't be a shock or 34 or 33 so um yeah i mean i that's kind of my big thing is if i'm trying to win a tournament do i think shuck actually wins a tournament for me but our building block today is going to be alabe and juwan johnson like i'll spoil it now so it's like and you don't even you're killing our viewer retention i know y'all are there's gonna stick around for you to cow and and mike leone so it's fine don't worry about it uh but the um but yeah like you can play that without shuck because it's just so concentrated but i do think shuck's perfectly fine um you know it's 500 more for herbert if you want to say like the chargers just keep scoring then herbert could go off so yeah i don't think that shuck really wins us a tournament but i'm um and that's where i've started to move away from the play but i think it's totally fine it's just probably not where i'm going yeah real quick before we move to running back i do want to hit on herbert obviously that huge team total my guess is you're kind of thinking they get this done on the ground and herbert just doesn't throw enough to be well yeah and what's so interesting is it's two shanahan style coaches here in mike lefleur and mike mcdaniel and so what's what's interesting about those coaches is that that coaching tree calls pass plays at an expected rate but they're just never in passing situations like their whole play calling system is about not being in passing situations right you're staying ahead of the chains you're keeping the defense off balance and you're able to use that play action all the time and that's why you don't see a lot of comebacks from these types of teams when they fall down by 10 or more points right it's shanahan has a horrible history when his teams fall down by 10 or more because then you got to go to a drop back passing game and that's not how the team is built and so i i just feel like arizona knowing what they're up against is going to try to slow play this keep the ball on the ground uh we know that mike mcdaniel is is going to have this you know like balanced offense that's built off the run and so if the chargers take a lead it could be hard for us to get more than 30 pass attempts from herbert uh given the implied team totals the spread uh the game total all that i think it's like a um i think it's like a 77 percent of the time the quarterback will finish with 30 or fewer pass attempts and that's not even taking into account like the style of coaches that we're dealing with here so yeah that's where i'm kind of back and forth on herbert because every once in a while i'm like dude like herbert plus x who will save till later plus amari and hampton like it's cheap the ceiling's high but then i'm also like does he get there you know and so i have more trust in the guys who are 500 700 800 more but i do think that herbert's a sharp play this week i just don't know like on my tightest builds if that's where i'm going to end up uh let's segue to running back and then let's also use some news that's breaking to talk about bijan robinson one of the top plays here uh tua has officially been ruled out uh pennix is not going to play uh so we are getting cooper rush starting on the road at pittsburgh you know from a pure projection standpoint bijan robinson you know at 7700 looks like a strong play always a top running back um curious what your thoughts were on him you know previous to this news and now how you feel about him with tua out yeah i mean i like is cooper rush a downgrade on tua i don't think so you know he didn't look good in the ravens system last was that last year but he was nine and five with the cowboys do you remember it was uh i think it was cowboys against bingles wasn't it when like the bingles were this high owned defense i think cooper rush went out and put up a good game i think cooper rush is one of the better backups in the nfl and i don't know that two is one of the better starters in the nfl so um yeah i think that there's i think that there's um i don't think it's a downgrade personally you know and i might even trust the two of things been weird man like he went from like eh like top you know some people obviously thought he was great when mike mcdaniel was pulling the strings but he went from like you know top 15 top 20 to like top 20 to like top 20 to like bottom five starter um and the vibes coming out of atlanta have been really bad and you try to not overrate those things but last year it was the same thing in miami it was like people were saying they'd never been around worse fives than the miami camp and then things just downhill all throughout uh and it's been similar with the tua situation in atlanta where a few times i've been like oh but what if tua you know and it's like no probably not right so um i don't think cooper becomes interesting is fan duel is now available everywhere in the u.s so you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are including these places make this your most rewarding season ever with fan duel age and location restrictions apply product availability varies by market see fanduel.com for eligibility gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLE uh-oh did jam just freeze for you guys oh oh i think you just froze for a sec but i got you now here i am all right uh i think what's more interesting is can cooper rush throw for 250 yards and two scores because he's only 4k and so i think that opens things up as well yeah that is uh an interesting wrinkle there looking at the top end obviously gibbs just in an insane spot basically no backup running back to speak of at home here versus new orleans let's talk about him and some of these other top guys i would say you know jonathan taylor a chan henry who at the high end is going to make it into your builds yeah i mean we tend to overrate this whole like david montgomery's gone isaiah pacheco's hurt gibbs is going to see all the touches but also he was 15th in the nfl last year in percentage of backfield touches so even if he's eighth in the you know seventh in the nfl that's way ahead of where he was last year uh and then they've got this huge team total like he's pretty clearly the top running back play on the slate where with bijan you have to trust you know this low team total and hope that he can pull through on role alone gibbs has everything going for him so yeah it's gibbs at the top um and then bijan really strong play um but i like with the pricing gap i do value say on a little bit more than bijan this week um like my rankings probably go um gibbs saquon bijan chase brown um and then i like i've played around with a chan a lot and uh i think jonathan taylor is perfectly sharp but the i have a hard time seeing jonathan taylor putting up like 35 against a jesse minter defense and maybe i'm just way overrating minter there and um and then a chan just like with the dolphins team total in game environment and i don't think like if the dolphins are playing a good offense and a bad defense then it'd be like dude like malik willis is good they'll figure things out uh or we think malik willis is good and a channel have a chance to shine but i just think like i think we're going to see the lowest combined pass play rate of any game in week one between the raiders and dolphins we know that kubiak's going to call a run leaning scheme and then you've got you know no brock bowers on top of that like if you're that coach what type of game are you calling right and so i think that both teams are going to lean on the run which is great for a chance touches but just his opportunity for like a multi-touchdown game goes down so i think a chance perfectly sharp he's like top seven back on the slate for me same thing with jonathan taylor uh but it's those other four guys that i'm mostly prioritizing we then have some guys in the mid-range you know hampton kind of interesting with that team total genti it sounds like is going to be a full go it even sounds like jeremiah love's going to play although should still be expected to split there a decent amount i'm guessing you like bruce hall a bit if you're in on the jets who in this kind of 6k range uh jumps out to you yeah bruce hall like i think any of those guys you mentioned are solid um amari and hampton i've had a hard time wrapping my head around because again it's like i said with with tyler shuck like the pricing gap isn't big enough for me to like when i put him on a roster i'm like dude bijan robinson's 900 more you know like um and and jameer gibbs is 1200 more saquon barkley is 100 more and if i expect a bounce back from saquon like i think we see it not not the same season as two years ago because that was historic but like a similar level like closer to that level than last year's level from saquon um so it's been hard for me to get to amari and hampton so i'll probably play him with herbert and a pass catching partner right to bet on the offense um i don't know that i'm going to get to him in isolation but i don't argue against him in isolation either it's like i think and like the larger the tournament size the more sense it would make to take on the guesswork but then in order for the guesswork to justify itself you'd have to outperform like the other running backs and so like you'd have to be a top two running back and put some space between some of the other guys you could roster that are higher certainty which i just have a hard time getting there on um tighter builds this week breese hall you know he's this guy who like always pops in projections and as i've wrestled with cascading projections this week i've tried to get it to geno smith appreciation and any any inputs i put in there that don't like specifically boost geno smith it's like breese hall rises you know um and that's why like you see so many math and mechanics dfs players play breese hall every week in past years because he's always going to look good based on team total role projections and um and then it just like almost never pays off but i feel like this year he's got a better shot at that paying off some of these weeks so yeah breese hall and then deandre swift just to keep betting on the bears offense and then i think david montgomery could actually surprise people if not week one than one of these early weeks but this is a good spot for him because the texans want to be physical up front they want to be run based uh we saw what happened to the bills in week one last year against derrick henry it was a very like different caliber of back but still like this physical big body downhill run game doesn't suit the bills personnel well and so i could see david montgomery popping off in week one i don't know that i'll get there he's a really sharp play as well this week yeah you can get like down here too you mentioned montgomery i mean manunga is gonna play but still missed most of the preseason so you should expect maybe a little bit bigger workload for swift you know travis achan's gonna get all the work he can get with camara out like you can get some really nice volume down here for cheap as we head sub 6k bucky irving is interesting to me we had a lot of the news and notes over you know the past month sean tucker was kind of on the outs with the team or wasn't going to be quite as involved which if we condense to bucky and gain well now i start to get interested there what do you think about him at 5700 yeah he was on some of my early practice builds like a month ago because you're just like game environment and what could happen here um i'm not going to get there on tighter builds but he's definitely circled my my thinking the ceiling's there he can go for 25 29 um the frequency with which he would do it is somewhat low and yeah like the the running like the the pricing is stacked in such a way that it kind of biases us towards higher priced running backs and mid-tier wide receivers which you can be contrarian in your roster construction just by bucking that trend and paying down at running back and paying up at multiple wide receiver spots um but you can also like be contrarian while still playing the best plays and just playing them uniquely and so i'm kind of leaning more that way especially for smaller field contests is like i'll probably pay up at running back maybe in two or even three spots like i was building rosters last night that were gibbs plus chase brown plus saquon or gibbs plus bijan plus saquon uh which would also be a very unique way right like if all three of those guys go for 30 plus very few people will have all three of them together right so like they could have ownership individually but cumulatively the ownership would be low and so uh yeah i mean that's one of the ways to uh think about the running back position as well so there are some cheaper running backs that i think are perfectly solid but i might not actually end up getting there myself yeah because you say that like on a week with tighter price pricing you might look at a guy like marshall lloyd getting the start for the packers and say holy cow uh that's something i'm very much interested in at his price of what is he at 4800 but is that kind of running into the issue you're just describing where the opportunity cost might just be too high for a play like that well yeah and then you know you're playing against the vikings defense we've seen this in the past where people like load up on a guy against a good defense and usually the that guy is higher price than this because draft kings has gotten good at pricing up these backup running backs but it'll be a guy like 5400 you know and and people will bypass the very clear alpha like they would bypass two years ago james connor at 6200 and play like the backup running back against a really good defense at 5400 and it's like guys it's still like you still need raw point you know and so that's where i'm at with marshall lloyd is how many raw points does he get in a matchup against minnesota and obviously there are pathways where he gets there but it it's not a high frequency pathway so for me yeah that's i'll avoid it i don't think that it's like fundamentally bad but you're not turning the in your favor with a play like that this week one spot i wanted to ask you about because i do think they're just gonna have success in this spot um with cooper rush at quarterback i mean what do you think about rico or jaylen warren down here in the low fives now that's super interesting to me um you know rico i don't even know if rico do people call him uncle rico because they really missed opportunity i don't know if uncle rico is is even in the player grid because i put him in and then took him out and then put him back in and took him back out i think a special section called also that might actually have landed in there and might not have landed in there so i'm not sure but i think that might not have um and it's just this thing of like what's his role like i don't know but i know that he can be really good when he has a role and i think this is a good spot for him so yeah i think the rico daddell is very interesting this week uh shout out to ollie for flagging this for me you probably saw this i had missed this but uh apparently nick underhill says camara is trending to play i'm guessing you didn't have a ton of interest in uh travis achan in the first place does that kind of take him off the board altogether yeah i mean i didn't have interest just because of that but i think that's a good spot for him i think that's a good spot for him just because again it's similar to the vikings thing it's like what's his ceiling against a really good run defense and a in a game where you expect them to have to be passing so uh not a guy that i would have ended up on either way uh i guess one more spot i would be interested in asking you about would be uh the vikings right you kind of play that what if angle uh with kyler uh would that trickle down to jordan mason and aaron jones as well in a pretty good spot at home i mean it could yeah but you're i like that's like large field darts and again the question you want to ask is do they separate you know do they post if you're taking on that guesswork not can they get you 20 but like what's the scenario where they get you 28 or something you know where it's like yeah other people who are paying for flex players in this price range are not you know they're outscoring colston loveland they're outscoring garrett wilson and lad mcconkey they're outscoring whoever else you can get down in this price range and so uh if they're doing that then it the the guesswork you had to take on gets justified but they have to score like that or you have to think they can score like that before you can take that swing so that's not a swing that i'll take um and like it's lower probability so yeah i could see them posting a good game it's harder for me to see them posting a separator game and if they do if they do in smaller field contests that's probably not beating me anyway you know because like the number of people who would have that would be so small that they would still need to get so many other things right uh and then in large field play though you could aim to be that person who has that i just think it's a low probability bet uh i guess then just to put a bow on the running back it definitely seems like you're gravitating to the higher end. Is there anyone under 6k that is in your tighter player pool? Yeah. So again, Montgomery is at 6k. Um, and then, yeah, the closest I've gotten is this intro, like, like I said, earlier in the summer, it was, or, you know, late summer, uh, I was getting some, actually some Gainwell and some Bucky Irving. Um, and then like somebody like Tony Pollard, you could see him having a good game, but I haven't built with him at all. Uh, and then Rico Dattle is really the one who it's like, oh, I could actually pull the trigger on him on a tighter bill, you know, like 10% of bank roll or 5% of bank roll or something like that. Yeah. And we did, I just saw, you know, this, this, uh, Panthers backfield has been just like a snip snap throughout the off season where it's like, you know, Chuba's hurt. Oh, here we go with Brooks and then it's Brooks is hurt. And now Chuba's the lead back. I just see that Brooks is fully off of the injury report. Seems like that's probably just to stay away until we see what that splits like. That's how I'm treating it. But, um, you know, sometimes money's made and we're not going to be able to, you know, we're not going to be able to make a guess on something like that. Um, not where I'm going, but, uh, yeah, it's, it's stay away from me, but it's a good game environment potentially. All right. Let's head over to wide receiver. I mean, wide receiver is always the deepest position to discuss and obviously even more deep here in week one. I mean, some really nice options at the high end chase at 7,800 versus Cincy Amin raw 7,500 versus Detroit Jefferson, uh, guessing you like all three of those guys. Yeah. Uh, Chase by far though, at the top. And then St. Brown's interesting because in game environments like this, where the, like, as the lions team total rises, like the correlation, like historically has been the St. Brown's points go down a little bit. And then this isn't a defense that gives up, like it's a defense that forces you to march the field, uh, that does well against wide receivers, like structurally. And I would expect Brandon Staley to put a heavy emphasis on that. I would expect Brandon Staley to put a heavy emphasis on slowing down St. Brown through the air. So it's harder for me to see him putting up the 40 pointer, but I do, I mean, I like the idea of a golf plus St. Brown plus Gibbs stack this week and just say, Hey, what if they do score 40 plus points, you know? Um, so I don't know that I'll play him in isolation, but he's, he's probably above Jefferson for me on paper, but I'm likelier to play Jefferson because it's fun to play that. What if game that ceiling game on Jefferson? So, uh, yeah, I put chase above, I would lump a lave into like the, well, like into the same scoring group as Justin Jefferson in terms of expectations, um, and confidence in those expectations here. So, uh, it would be like, yeah, Jamar and then a lave Jefferson and then, uh, St. Brown after that. Yep. Uh, all good plays here at the high end, you know, coming down from there sounded like you were interested in the Eagle. So curious what you think about Devante Smith drink London, obviously not in a great spot. You mentioned the weird kind of correlation elements you mentioned with Lamar T Higgins, always in play for a big game, uh, anything here within this next year. Yeah. London, obviously you got to rely on Cooper rush and you got to question how many reps they've had together. Um, but I would think that like we play at the slate a hundred times, London's going to outperform his salary is how I would look at it. So I think London remains a sharp play, uh, Zay flowers. I'm not going to end up on, but I can see, the case for him, Devante Smith. I don't know that I'm actually going to get there because I like Goddard as a stacking partner with Hertz and it's just such a cheaper way to play it. But I think that Devante Smith is very sharp as a one-off and with Jalen Hertz. Uh, and then, yeah, like, and then we kind of do have a different tier once we get below T Higgins. So I think T Higgins is kind of the cutoff there on the tier. You can even say Zay flowers is the cutoff, but T Higgins just has so much ceiling in the rare weeks when he does hit on the high end that I would treat kind of T Higgins as the cutoff point there. I think one question I'll often ask you when we get into this range, um, obviously stacking drives a lot of the decisions with some of these guys here, who are some of the plays, um, other than the ones on the high end that we just referenced, who you would play just as a one-off or in a vacuum where you do really like, um, you know, their standalone value there. Yeah. Standalone value, uh, here in this 6k range. Sure. Yeah. We can head in this five, six K range. I, yeah, I guess maybe not quite the like pure value plays, but just kind of setups you really like. Yeah. I mean, standalone a lobby, uh, where you're like, I'm literally not betting on their quarterback having a monster game and they could still be part of a tournament winning roster is how I try to think about it. And that would be really primarily a lobby and Garrett Wilson, um, would be the two guys that I would say, because it's like, they're not necessarily like a bet on them. Isn't a bet on their quarterback doing great. It's just a bet on their concentrated roles, right? We already talked about, Garrett Wilson's concentrated role. Uh, we know about how concentrated a lobby's role is. And so those are the guys who, and Drake London obviously as well, but like they don't require their quarterback having a big game in order for them to be like one of the stronger pieces on the slate. Yup. Um, you know, one as, as banking asks about the Jags here, I think both, you know, the chargers in Jags, we have some of these offenses with a lot of different weapons, maybe not a clear, you know, head and shoulders. Number one, how are you thinking about the continuity of those? Does that stay away from you until you see how this shakes out? Or do you want to lean into that? So with the Jags, we also have a matchup against Cleveland and a huge spread in that game. And so again, there's, there's this thought of how do I get to first place? And if you're new to listening to my content, I'll probably like talk about first place more than most people, because I think the biggest mistake DFS players make is just thinking like who can have a good game. Whereas DFS is structured. All the money's at the very top of the payout structure. And so we always have to be thinking about how do we get to first place? It's hard for me to see in a game where the Jags are favored by so much where there's like uncertainty around how these players are going to be used and where they're playing against Cleveland. It's hard for me to see them putting up a score where at the end of Sunday, it's like, ah, why didn't I have Parker Washington? Why didn't I have Jacoby Myers? I couldn't win the slate without them. And so, because it's hard for me to see that pathway, they're not going to end up in the first place. And so I think it's hard for me to see them on my tighter builds. And so it's week one, like week one's wide open, play good players and you can make a case for it. So what I'm primarily talking about isn't to say like these guys can't have good games. Almost anyone that we've talked about can have a good game. It's just like probabilistically, how do I position myself to have the lowest possible downside and the clearest pathways to ceiling? And these guys don't fit that bill. Yeah. And I do think, you know, looking at some ownership projections, Ladd and QJ will be fairly popular. Parker Washington, of course, is the hottest name of, of best ball this past August. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get contract news for him, you know, any, any minute now as well. Let's look, you know, I'm thinking now of some of these value guys that are opening up. QJ is under 5k. Seems like Trey Tucker might be popular now without Brock Bowers, people trying to see how that offense condenses any of these other, maybe cheaper options that catch your eye. Yeah. So you named the two guys who stand out to So this is crazy. Every wide receiver under 6k, he had the highest rate last year of games of 14 plus points at the highest rate last year of games of 23 plus points. And those are arbitrary marks because those were scores that he rose above, right? He had a seven out of seven out of 14 above 14 points. And then three out of 14 above 23 points. But like, still, you know, we're picking an arbitrary mark that, that he reached, but it's like, it just reminds you like, he's underpriced, right? When I, when I'm like, when I'm putting the Browns defense on a roster, and then I'm like, I can do better than the Browns defense, right? But then I got to get up to maybe like the Jags or the Steelers at 3,300, 3,400. And it's like, then I try to go through my roster and say, okay, where would I use this 1,200 to make my roster better? So if I'm on Gibbs, I can't go higher because he's the highest price guy. Or if I've got a stack, that stack's locked in place. And when I do that exercise, when I look at QJ, there's no place, 1,200 above him or 1,300 above him that I'm like, I'm definitely improving my roster by spending that extra salary. We've got the high team total. We've got the good offense. He's wide receiver two, but it's an offense that kind of spreads the ball around to its pass catchers. Keenan Allen's gone and he has ceiling, right? And so he's just this underpriced piece that I think could kind of unlock some things on rosters this week. He's volatile, which is fine. He has ceiling, which is what we care about. And then Trey Tucker, I don't know that I'll get there, but I can't shake the memory of week one, two years ago when the Saints had this monster week one game under Kubiak and nobody saw it coming. And it's like, you don't need volume for a speed guy in a Kubiak offense to put up a big game. But then I think about what we've seen from Kirk Cousins' arm the last two years. And it's like, but really though, like if Cousins throws it 26 times, do I think that Trey Tucker on seven targets is going to put up like a, a monster game? It can happen. Like, I don't know that I'm going to take the swing on it, but if I don't end up with any Trey Tucker, I will be closely watching that game and like sweating what he does on the 20% of rosters that have him, you know, like I'm scared to not have him, but I don't know that I'm going to end up there. So that kind of lands me like, yeah, he's sharp to play. I don't know that I will be playing him. Yeah. And I know too, just, you know, your style of play and having talked to you over the years, you know, sometimes people are kind of I'm going to go ahead and do a you know, like target or, you know, reception kind of chasing in the lower range, trying to get a bang for your buck. And I know you've always been willing to take on the more volatile plays, like the pump plays. You're not actually looking for safety. You're looking for the guy who could hit on a big play and actually put up a score, right? Like you're not trying to get to 11 points. You're trying to find the guy who can get 20 points at 3500. Right. Which is why, which is why I like Tucker more than Michael Mayer, because Tucker can score like a monster game on five to seven targets. Whereas Michael Mayer, if he gets, again, this all goes back to how I think that the Raiders are going to call this game. I think it's going to be a lower passing volume game. I think we see 20, 27 or fewer pass attempts from Kirk Cousins. And so if that's the case, like Mayer's going to see seven targets and catch four for 35, catch five for 40, you know, it's like, uh, if he adds a touchdown, that's tremendous. And I like one of my main rosters I'm playing with has Mayer on it because of what it unlocks. And because it's just a way to say like, let me not try to outsmart the 30% of the field that's going to play him by like shifting over. Like I've, I've had Mason Taylor is sort of my cheap tight end unlock. And it's like, I don't, you do love the jets. If you're thinking about separation from the field at this spot, right. And try to stamp my flag and be like, Mason Taylor's going to outscore Michael Mayer. Like then I can just go to Michael Mayer on that roster and it unlocks some things that I really like on the roster, but he's also not a guy I'm scared to I don't expect this to be a game where they're just throwing the ball a ton and he's racking up a ton of targets and he's got this short area role that he really needs touchdowns in order to produce, but Trey Tucker can do it on one or two catches, which I think makes him a sharper play from this offense than Michael Mayer. I do want to leave just a smidge of time for tight ends, obviously. And I want to have a little extra time to talk some cascading projections when we build our lineup, but two offenses, I don't think we've hit on really at all. Curious about how you feel about the Packers in the box, maybe specifically Christian Watson and Chris Godwin here. Yeah. You, I have a lot of respect for the Bengals cornerbacks and their ability to slow down wide receivers. Um, I also don't have a lot of clarity on the bucks offense. So I've come back to that question a lot, uh, and decided to leave it alone for my rosters in week one. If Chris Godwin beats me, if Emeka Abuka beats me, they beat me. Uh, what was the other one that we just saw? Uh, the Packers wide receiver, specifically Watson. Yeah. Similar with like the Vikings are so good against wide receivers. Uh, Christian Watson is the one that I've pulled up over and over again and been like, eh, maybe, um, I thought he would be like 5,100 or 4,900, you know, he's 5,900, but the ceiling is there that you could justify the play. Uh, and then maybe one more to hit just because I do think it's an interesting spot with Roma dunes, a, a little banged up Luther burden, uh, could be a fun play. Yeah. Luther burden, super sharp. Uh, you know, I keep talking about the bears, Colston Loveland, super sharp that could transition us to tight end. But I think that burden is a, is a perfectly sharp play down here, especially after how much Ben Johnson has talked about. We can try to think in week one, like who's, who's gonna be priced one K higher four to six weeks from now. And I think burden falls into the category where you certainly could be priced one K higher in the next four to six weeks. Yeah. Let's briefly touch on tight end. Like you said, Michael Mayer is going to be extremely popular. Um, the most popular tight end on the slate by far at 2,900. Um, I think Juwan Johnson is also gonna be fairly popular. Um, so thoughts on those two and then kind of where you would go if you do spend up. Yeah. Where I would go if I spend up is Colton Loveland. Um, another guy who I think, you know, could be 5,900, 6,100 within a few weeks and matches up really well against the Panthers. I have all the numbers in the player grid for anyone who wants to kind of dive a little deeper there. And then, uh, as we get below that, I think Laporta is interesting because everybody's gonna be on the lions. Who's gonna be on Laporta. And you look through his game logs and he's just like, this dude produces higher scores at a higher rate than people give him credit for. And he's in this weird price range. He's not a sexy play. And so just people just won't be on him, you know? Uh, and then Dallas Goddard fits really well with Jalen hurts. No, AJ Brown, um, Don Tavian wicks and Hollywood Brown and McKay lemon missed all that time in camp and like reports haven't been tremendous on him yet. So I just think that Goddard could be a focal point of this offense or not, not like a schemed focal point, but, um, could have one of his stronger games of the season here in a good matchup. So, uh, those are other tight ends. I like Mark Andrews on Lamar Jackson rosters and nowhere else. Uh, I think John Johnson's really sharp and you can play him and not worry about ownership because just a cheap piece. You're hoping to get 10 to 15 points for with a shot at 20. Uh, you can also play him with a lobby, which kind of changes the way that your, um, your roster looks the way that you're playing him. And then, yeah, like I said, I think that the, um, I don't think you had to get like sneaky and try to outsmart people on other cheap tight ends, unless you're, you know, in a large field contest where it's like, oh, if Hawkinson puts up 15 and mayor puts up nine, you're gaining an edge, but realistically mayor's probably putting up. At least six or seven points and he can put up 15 with a touchdown. And so, um, I don't think that's a spot where you have to try to outsmart the field. If you're going super cheap, uh, the, like the bang for your buck just isn't there and you can just side with ownership and beat people elsewhere. All right. I'd be remiss. One last Titan question. This one comes in from the discord. Uh, you know, we've in the best ball streets, the chargers tight ends have been a hot topic of conversation. There's Charlie Kolar people, people there's David Najoku people. There's Ronde Gadsden people. What people are you for week one DFS? Who did we, who did we take in our best ball draft? We took Gadsden. I think we took Gadsden. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Very late. No, I think, um, like David Najoku is a really good pass catching tight end. I think that he's gonna be featured in the past game in week one, but featured means, you know, maybe like five or six targets because of, we don't expect a ton of volume here. And so I, I do like him in a Herbert stack. Um, but I'm not gonna play any of these guys as one offs again. Like, I just don't think, I don't think this is a place where we have to try to outsmart the field because the edge we're gonna gain is minimal. The, the downside is there that we just fall behind a huge chunk of the field. Um, and yeah, down at the downside, it's like, let me get, let me, let me just stick with the field and get different somewhere else. Uh, all right. We are going to get into the lineup build with an extra fun twist this year, talking some cascading projection. Fan duel is now available everywhere in the U S you can get in on the sports action, no matter where you are, including these places, make this your most rewarding season ever with fan agent, location, restrictions apply product availability varies by market. See fan duel.com for eligibility gambling problem. Call one 800 gambler. All right, jam. I have pulled up your screen here. We referenced this on the best ball draft we did in previous weeks. Give people kind of a, a high level overview of what this is, and then let's see it in action for week one. Yeah. High level overview. Uh, so this all started from this question of like, what if we, we, we always talk about if we play at the slate a hundred times, what's likeliest, right? But then the next step is once you put a player on a roster on that roster, you're saying this player has a big game. And so what if you could say, well, what happens in that small size of one where this player has a big game? What happens if I say that Joe burrow scores 36 draft Kings points, what does that change in the projections for the rest of his team? Uh, and then you can also input a game score. So hierarchically it goes, whatever one pin for a game you choose that cascades through the projections for the rest of that game, right? So you can put Jamar chase at 38 draft Kings points that redraws the projections for that whole game. Uh, you can put in the game score is second in line. Uh, and so that basically says like it tightens up. Okay. Now it's. Jamar chase scoring 38 draft Kings points in this type of game. Uh, and then percentile, which you can do one player per team, put in their percentile. So you could be like in, in a game where Joe burrow scores 36 draft Kings points and the score in the game is 34 to 38. What does Jamar chase is 85th percentile outcome, not just against his mean projections or his medium projections, but what's his 85th percentile outcome in that type of game. So what I want to show you is a couple things really quickly. One is, uh, for anybody who is, is watching this, I've already got game scores input and what I did, and we're going to add this over the next few weeks, there's a bunch of improvements that I'm going to keep adding. But what I did was, uh, I ran some numbers on what was the 80th percentile game projection based on totals spreads for every game on the slate. So this is the 80th percentile game for all 12 games on the slate. And so we've redrawn the scores to basically see like if every game were to hit its 80th percentile, what do the projections look like at that point? So we can sort by points per dollar. And one of the things that we're going to see is obviously some cheaper guys popping, right? Daniel Jones, Bryce young, Tyler shuck, but Joe burrow stands out in that if the Bengals game hits its 80th percentile outcome, Joe burrow at this high price tag ends up as one of the best point per dollar plays on the slate. We're also going to learn from this. Like when we go through other positions, this is why high priced players are so valuable and why you see so many sharp DFS players on high priced players. Like, I'm prioritizing high priced players is because when Jameer Gibbs, when Bijan Robinson, we can go to the flex position, actually, Windjamar Chase, Jameer Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Amon Ross St. Brown, when their games hit their 80th percentile outcome, they're the highest point per dollar projected plays. And so these are all, any of you who are watching, you can grab these scores and just understand that these are 80th percentile. Again, this is all free week one. So we can clear all these inputs. And one of the other things I wanted to talk about, and this is one of the biggest things that kind of drove me toward this idea of cascading projections, is people play Jamar Chase at 30% ownership, and then Burrow will be 3% owned on those weekends. And one of the things that I've seen in the numbers is like, yeah, if Jamar Chase hits 25 points, Burrow is not putting up a tournament winner at his price tag. But once you put Jamar Chase on a roster, we're trying to win tournaments, right? So the moment you put Jamar Chase on a roster, you are saying on this roster, my bet is Jamar Chase posts a tournament winning score, or he had to have it. Or a separator type of score, right? So if we put in that type of score here in the pin, we can put in 36 for Jamar Chase. And what's going to happen is we will redraw the projections for this game. We can go over to quarterback and see that Joe Burrow projects for 31 points when Jamar Chase goes for 36 points. And I went into these numbers in the player grid, but in Jamar Chase's games of, I think it was 36 or more DraftKings points, Joe Burrow has averaged just over 31. Just under 31 DraftKings points in those games. And so we can kind of see that in real time. And then one of the things that that allows us to do, I won't take up all our time, but I'm gonna do one last thing real quickly. So what I did originally, Pete, was I saved some quarterback pins and some wide receiver pins that are all 4X their salary. But what we can do here is we can put in, I'm going to go just some wide receivers at 4X their salary. So Jamar Chase, that puts them at 31.2. Justin Jefferson, that's going to put them at 29.2. Oh, we're going to clear reset the game. So we just want to look at these players and not what the game scores put in. We're going to look at Chris Alabe at 26.8. And then we're going to look at Drake London at 26, Garrett Wilson at 23.2. And what we're going to see, oh, 266. Can't do that. So it's going to redraw it to the highest it can do, but then we'll reset it back to 26. Want to just see what, you know, say the Jamar Chase thing does to Tee Higgins or what it does to Chris Godwin. We can see what it does to the rest of the game. We can see what it does to their teammates, but then also we can see like we had the Jamar Chase example, right? So let's say, okay, if all these players hit 4X their salary, which quarterbacks benefit the most, right? And so again, by doing this, we still have two here in the projections, but by doing this, we're going to see that Joe Burrow, like all these quarterbacks benefit when their wide receiver one goes up, but who benefits the most? We're going to see Joe Burrow as this high priced guy who really benefits. So these are some of the cool things that we can do here. And it really allows you to say, if I'm betting on this guy in a sample size of one and saying, this guy has a big game, where does the math point me toward that? Okay. This guy has a big game. What does that mean for the rest of this game environment? What does that mean for the rest of the players? How do I take advantage of this bet I'm placing that this player has a big game, and that's a tool that's been missing and that I've been thinking about for a few years and spent months this off season building this out. But basically to be able to say like, okay, let's make smarter decisions on our roster. Once I place this bet, what is the cascading effect of that bet? And how can I turn the math in my favor by taking advantage of it? Yeah, I love that. I'm excited to play with that. Everybody should take advantage of that. I want to mention too, so it's free week one. There's also like, if you just want cascading projections, and you're like, I don't need content, I don't need all that. Our Inner Circle membership is 229. It goes up to 279 next week. We also have a 129 membership that's basically a cascading projections membership. You get ownership projections, cascading projections, summaries of all the articles with the key takeaways from them. But if you're like, I don't need a content subscription, it's 129 for Inner Circle Lite, which is basically a cascading projections, ownership projections, projections, summary subscription. So yeah, you can just get the stuff and promo code Pete is 20% off. So we wanted to do that this year for anybody who's like, I want to use this tool, but I don't need another content subscription or full content subscription or whatever it is. So you've also got Inner Circle Lite that you can play around with. All right. We're going to start with this build. And because you already spoiled it, so I already know we're starting with Jawan Johnson and Olave, right? Yeah. Jawan Johnson and Olave. Last year, these guys went for 39-plus. In 25% of their games, but also they played eight games with Tyler Shuck and they combined for 40-plus in, I think it was 42-plus in three of those eight games. And so this is an ascending offense, right? We keep saying like, well, what if Caleb Williams takes a step forward? We know that the Saints are one of the media darlings is like a sneaky team to take a step forward this year. Yeah. What if they do? In a game against a run against a pass funnel defense that plays a ton of man coverage. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And an offense in the Lions that's aggressive and is going to try to score points proactively, and they're going to keep pushing things on the scoreboard is fine getting into shootouts. I mean, it's their whole team is built around shootouts, right? Let's score points. Let's play man coverage. Let's be aggressive. Let's force them to keep up with us. And then there's no Jordan Tyson. So it's like all the targets are going to these two guys. And so, yeah, I would say we have probably a 30% or better chance of these two combining for 40-plus points, which at 10.4K in salary, that's ridiculous. A ridiculous way to turn the math in our favor. So in smaller field contests, this is a really sharp way to build. What's gotten tricky for me is Jamar Chase and Michael Mayer is completely uncorrelated, but kind of the same price. And so it's like, when I have this, I started thinking, man, if I go down to Michael Mayer, I can't get up to Jamar Chase. The ultimate ceiling goes up there, but the floor drops in that situation. So yeah, there's a couple of different ways to play it, but in contest of 2000 or fewer entries, especially like 500 or fewer entries, I love this pairing because it raises your floor. And it still gives you ceiling. Yeah. I like that a lot. And, you know, compared to the Chase and Mayer one you described, I mean, what I'm looking at, it should be a pretty big ownership discount to that just because Chase and Mayer are going to be two of the most popular plays on the slate. So you get a correlation boost and probably an ownership breaking in your favor there as well. But what about quarterback? Where are we going here with this lineup? Yeah. Well, let's put in Gibbs on this roster so we can kind of wrap up the environment stuff and play one of the sharpest plays on the slate. And then let's try something here. We always like trying things, right? Oh yeah. So let's try what happens if we put in Chase Brown and Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow, where we just saw like when Chase hits, it's happening in such a way that Joe Burrow's also hitting. What we've also seen is that Chase Brown often hits in those games. And this three-player pairing is one of the highest ceilings or actually has the highest ceiling on the slate over the last few years of quarterback, wide receiver one, RB one, multiple times that these three have combined for over a hundred points. And if we end up getting a game like that here, then having the three of them together is going to be rare. So having some of these guys individually, not so rare, but having these three together would be rare. And then, yeah, let's see if we can fit Gibbs into this and see what that squeezes us down to. Because now we got to play Michael Mayer once we do this, right? But now we're playing. We're playing Michael Mayer. And it's fine that we have the ownership on him. It's fine that we even have the Michael Mayer, Jamar Chase pairing that's going to be popular because this is so different from the way that other people are going to be playing it. And that actually allows us to do a couple things. So one is we could go with the Texans or the Vikings and Trey Tucker, and we have kind of the Michael Mayer, Trey Tucker, just like bet on this passing attack, or we could go down to the Browns and we could fit in Quinton Johnston. And then we've got this ceiling and another bet on one of these high upside offenses, one of the highest implied team totals. And so you see the ceiling across the board where if you get 100 points from Burrow, Brown and Jamar Chase, which again, they've done multiple times, they got 110 points multiple times. And then if you get the 35 or 40, the separator type score from Gibbs, literally nobody has all of that together. And so you're getting scores that individually the ownership is there, but cumulatively, nobody's going to be able to get it. So you're going to have a pairing like this because of the way you got to kind of twist things. And then you get the, Quinton Johnson can put up 25 points. Chris Alave can put up 35 points or Alave plus Johnson, Juwan Johnson can put up 40 to 45 points. And so yeah, you just stack so much in your favor on a roster like this. Don't dupe this roster because I still don't have my Burrow roster yet. And something like this is probably what I'm driving toward. But yeah, it's just, it's really interesting what you can do when you kind of start thinking a little bit differently in the way that you put this together. I don't like having the Brown 's defense because Jags have a high team total. They're on the road in the heat. It's actually interesting. I've never been to Cleveland. It's right on the lake. The humidity in Jacksonville this week and Cleveland is identical. Because I was like, Cleveland's got to go down in the heat and the humidity. And it was like, let me look this up. There's no difference in the humidity, but they do have the heat difference. So seventies in Cleveland this week, 90s in Jacksonville. So I don't love the Brown's defense, but it makes something like this work on a week where the other defense is like, I don't know that we're getting a 20 point defense this week. And so if we're squeezing the extra salary around, um to get an extra six seven points this is the type of week where it might end up being worth it or again you know you can go qj down to tucker on something like this and go up to the brown spot to a different defense i i have to give my my annual psa actually i think i start doing this weekly here uh you know this is uh it's a practice build it's for ideas in fact jm told you not to dupe him so he would love if you uh went down from burrow to tyler shuck he would love if you played caleb douglas instead he would love if you took chase brown out and didn't play him with joe burrow so all of these ideas not only are they valid but they're actually encouraged because jm does not want to be holding hands with you uh it's so funny jm because i built uh i recorded with kendall valenzuela over on fantasy life yesterday and we did uh you know a build on draft kings and i was kind of vibing and i had burrow chase brown in jamar chase as the start and we had juwan johnson so you know we uh the hive mind is is in lockstep to start there we go we got it we're wired in together yeah i mean this is um this is like ultra high upside then obviously you you take on some uh some downside here on a roster like this but uh yeah i think that things like this is this is kind of the direction i'm trying to think in week one is like how do we stack some certainty with some ceiling and um bet on some of these i mean let's look at this real quickly uh highest team totals on the site like those top six teams we got burrow we got chase brown we got jameer gibbs we got jamar chase we got uh screen gone uh and then we got juwan johnson like then we got the concentrated stuff with juwan johnson and chris alabe and then we you know michael mayer kind of makes it happen so yeah like just this idea of where do we target ceiling through the highest implied team totals and the the most roles secure players in week one this looks a lot like how i've been trying to build this week awesome stuff there you guys should be checking out one week season take advantage of the free week i am curious too like when you were messing around with the kind of extreme outcomes just because people i do think sometimes worry about that running back quarterback correlation i don't worry about it with chase brown because he catches balls like that's part of the thesis that joe burrow throws a touchdown pass to chase brown in this specific lineup but did you learn anything from the cascading projections how brown correlates with burrow yeah i mean there's no there's almost no correlation between running back and quarterback and that includes like running backs 80th percentile games versus quarter there's like a very slight lift on quarterbacks in a running backs 80th percentile game a slightly larger lift on opposing quarterback in the and there's the extreme case like the josh jacobs and the derrick henry's the guys who don't catch passes and have very specific roles and thrive in very specific types of games there's you know negative correlation with their quarterback positive correlation with the opposing quarterback but like by and large the running back position top running backs median scores mean scores high end scores like there is no correlation so us saying chase brown has an 80th percentile outcome still leaves burrow hitting his 80th percentile outcome at a 20 rate you know like it doesn't change it doesn't decrease burrow's chances of hitting doesn't increase his chances of hitting but there are these game environments where these three have hit together and we've seen it happen enough to know that like this is a high outcome build when it ends up when the bingles end up in a high outcome type of game there you go uh so the team here for our audio listeners joe burrow chase brown jameer gibbs chris alave jamar chase quentin johnston jawan johnson michael mayor and the browns d obviously some fun little 2v2s to tweak there with the defense the the cheap wide receiver all of that stuff but you get the gist jm uh excited for another year here underway excited to mess with the cascading projections and hope everybody checks out one week season because it is free this week i have the links down in the description in the show notes all of that good stuff uh any parting shots here before we uh turn over to you to yeah when you read the roster like that you get burrow chase brown jameer gives chris alave jamar you're like it's like how do you fit all this on a roster and then you get to quentin johnson jawan johnson michael mayor and browns you know uh sounds really good up at the top though yes as the meme says you had me in the first half uh all right jm we will catch you as always every friday 1 p.m eastern and should also mention all of your updated thoughts in the player grid um you know filling out over the weekend generally what saturday night into sunday morning yeah late saturday night into sunday morning i'll have updated thoughts i'll have updated journal entries throughout the weekend and so uh yeah i'll keep pumping out thoughts as we get closer to kickoff all right great stuff time to shift over to bully the sims we'll see you next week jam fan duel is now available everywhere in the u.s so you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are including these places georgia newston cleveland minnesota buffalo make this your most rewarding season ever with fan duel age and location restrictions apply product availability varies by market see fan duel.com for eligibility gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER all right here he is it's ben a yuda how you been dude i'm good i've been you know i've been under the radar but i'm always lurking so that sounds sounds so ominous uh what what have you been getting up to this this off season you've been you've been betting dfs all the usual anything new yeah not too focused that hard on dfs um a lot of more the betting side and um you know just with how industry is shifting to like prediction market stuff like that has that opened up like the amount you've been able to get down are you enjoying not having to play the limiting game with the sports books um well definitely like it just shifts what you're able to do you can sort of define things more clearly but i don't know like if you're going to be price sensitive it's still it can be quite limiting um but like in theory if i wanted to get down much more that's now an option yeah awesome well uh how excited are you to be able to play the to have nfl dfs back i assume you are getting ready to uh to fire hard here at week one good actually what wanted to talk about sort of how week one is normally with the idea of uncertainty um and to be completely transparent i know even less um than the typical uh content guy right now in fact i learned a lot in the last hour before before coming on so i will say like the greatest difference between perception and reality is going to be right now and like i don't know anything but at least i'm aware of that and i'm also pretty aware of what perception is so um i think for a lot of people it's easy to project what you last saw in 2025 onto 2026 because you just associate mentally certain things um but it's it's kind of difficult but it's it's kind of difficult to project what you last saw in 2025 onto 2026 because you just because whatever form a team is meant to take by the end of the year is not what you're going to see this week and specifically like how we have the shortened preseason right now it kind of plays like a preseason week four or like a week 0.5 i think we saw that with the niners game a bit yeah um where going in when i saw the game i sort of like wanted to wanted to be on the ramp but at a certain point mentally i was i was basically like i think i'm only on the rams because of what i perceived them to be and like what we last saw the niners um like you just gravitate towards like those types of factors um it's just sort of better to assume some sort of shift between then and now and it just ends up being more profitable that way because we basically could have seen niner or rams that like a 80th 90 percentile outcome last year and then you know the niners whole defense was hurt last year and so if they just regress a little bit you sort of get that outcome so is the way you think through applying that for the main slate of a baby wanting to be even more contrarian than normal that the assumptions the field is making the chalk might even be more fragile yeah i don't know if it ends up in being contrarian it's just sort of it can only end up i think in taking weaker stands in certain spots rather than buying into what you might think it should play out as yeah what are what are the spots that you're starting to think about a lot or maybe might be fool's gold that you see people may be gravitating to yeah it's like not necessarily sort of what they're gravitating to but just sort of like how teams are perceived so like the first one i would talk about would be the jets right it's like it's kind of hard to even tap actually i i touted the jets really well at one point on your show last year but yeah different story um you know they have that stigma but in this game you have bad defenses both sides and then specifically geno smith right his stock couldn't really be lower but he also just have a has a long record of you know at some point cratering to a terrible stock and then bouncing back in a huge way right i don't know like you remember um like 2022 or 2023 he didn't really have the job locked down as a starter they've done seahawks and they like beats denver and denver and he says like they wrote me off i didn't write back yeah yeah this was like when he wasn't in the league for like seven years yeah but that sort of he sort of repeats that over and over right uh the following years in seattle he like got worse every year and then he kind of speed ran that process in uh las vegas last year where he beats new england week one um has a big game against like commanders week two or week three and then just falls off for the rest of the year but like yeah comes into a new role people don't really expect him to do on the raiders beats you know a team that ends up being in the super bowl um so my thought on that is kind of like he's kind of coming full circle to go back on the jets it's more psychological but in this spot versus a team where it's like they're kind of a pick them anyway i can see him do way better than expectation yeah 4600 on draft kings where would your interest be in in how to play him i assume garrett wilson would be a big part of that well yeah because he doesn't he's not running much anyway so if he is to actually support real offense all the jets are cheap you know it'd be yeah i mean yeah it's it's actually more appealing because they have sort of a natural condensed target share like they have a real alpha there um but it also helps that like the that wide receiver two and three are pretty explosive guys yeah and ad mitchell i mean you want to talk about a guy who had a good camp they draft two first round rookies and all you would hear about at jets camp was adni mitchell i mean he's like the perfect draft kings play too right you get that get that 100 yard bonus with a big play get a touchdown i mean at 4k i haven't heard too many people talk about him this week um would it be is it something with gino where you could see yourself onslaughting it or would you expect it into like i might go there but i kind of feel as though getting just taking gino is pretty contrarian enough right it's not as like as though garrett wilson is that high or if breeze like breeze hall isn't that high it's it's kind of fair enough to just stop there but it's i have no real issue to like stack it more yeah yep uh i like that as well is there anything you would do or the price is cheap enough that you don't need to worry about like the game really going or would you want someone on the titans to help make that game interesting i think the titans is significantly harder and then you don't even have that that other side of the narrative and also i think the jets d is high right i owed with how cheap they are yes i think you're you're right there yeah so taking gino might even get be good to like play against that yeah uh one other spot i know you mentioned liking we talked a lot about um the bangles with jm but it seems like you have some interest on the other side here with the bucks uh yeah it's like um with the bucks i sort of see the bucks sort of offensive front sharing similarities with the niners defensive front where they have a bunch of talent but a lot of it was hurt even even the qb like baker was hurt a lot of last year pretty obviously hurt in the second half uh but you know he has a much better record of being significantly better than what we saw um tampa o-line might be one of the best actually they have the best tackle in the league probably um so it's sort of the the niners seeing the niners with like fred warner bosa do well um sort of put me on more to thinking about the bucks o-line yeah it's not as though it's not as though like bangles are like a intimidating defense they probably did get better there um but i think there was a pricing part of it too where um tampa guys aren't priced low enough really to uh show up a bunch and like from a value standpoint but that might have changed with um mcmillan the mcmillan update well sorry i might have missed that what's the mcmillan update i think he's doubtful or out oh wow okay like the the the bigger appeal actually actually that's more appealing to me but like because it could get people on to like the rookie hearst um i kind of think he's going to run more clear out type stuff and um for me like uh if he's just creating a bunch of space it kind of makes things a little better for for uh bucky or godwin being pretty sneaky and having big volume here um because i'm not exactly i'm not even exactly sold on ibuka's ability to earn targets especially from like an athletic standpoint but godwin in the slot role which is presumed what he's going to do could actually just be the form of like those those bigger years when he was averaging like 70 yards a game one interesting thing just from you know drafting all summer long is you know the bucky price was always held in check because people are both excited and uh you know are worried about bucky because of kenny gainwell the addition there the chat talking about kenny gainwell as well talk about why uh you might prefer bucky to him well i mean i would loop in gainwell with into that conversation it's certainly good for the team right gainwell's might just be a better version of rashad white so i don't really i i sort of like see the dynamic there being similar so it doesn't specifically refer to bucky but um if they're going to win on a lot of the time in the trenches offensively that's certainly good for for irving yeah uh one game that uh you mentioned to me before we went on was this uh this carolina in chicago game what are you seeing here not the biggest total but still uh pretty decent um well i don't know much about i sort of have to like get around to getting a feel on like how people feel preseason um but i get the sense that people are very high caleb yeah yeah people are i mean people are just stoked on ben johnson um you know you have the quotes of him saying he wants to set records for how many points are scored people are definitely enthused okay um i i probably like both sides both offenses here but um the way caleb closed his last season with like all the playoff comeback stuff it was very loud when at the same time i would argue that bryce young's second half is probably better right because caleb caleb had like the highlights um bryce young was pretty methodical and sort of just like you know somewhere between the game manager and just closing out games um like they got in the playoffs they they almost beat the rams in the playoffs which which is like pretty pretty impressive for what they had um talent wise so um but really i think carolina should probably play with more tempo i think their their their o-line is a concern especially relative to the bears defensive front which got better um at the same time it sort of creates the dynamic where uh canalis probably has a little bit of an issue with bryce young's um playoff playoff run as like a first option and a second option if that's not really available to him like it would have been last year um you might not really have any resort to like resort other than to have uh bryce young aired out a little more um also these are two number one picks back to back and to my understanding they've never played each other they've never shared a field in the nfl uh haven't shared a field in college if they've played in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college they've never shared a field in college um it's usually good for offenses because like they'll just try to egg each other on nice it's more of an assumption right because we haven't seen it but it's probably better to assume that there is something there when people might not even be aware that exists how would you uh attack bryce young at least from like a stacking perspective obviously he runs a little bit so that helps it's kind of like the jets where um if it works out for him it's just like they're all cheap and they're not too old i mean i didn't really look too closely but um yeah they're all priced in that fine range where you're okay taking it like it doesn't hurt you that much from value but you're not the value is not going to blow anyone away right bears bears might be better right because it's like the bears like like to be clear i like caleb as well in this game because i just think the game might be rather explosive but the the names on the bears are going to be more appealing and like it's more stackable it's like so easy to double or triple stack the bears whereas you could you could do a double with panthers it's just doesn't feel as good and like people just like caleb more than bryce young yeah yeah i guess the bears is gonna be so concentrated um what are your thoughts on loveland because he might go overlooked a smidge this week. just with everybody going down at tight end with the Jawan Johnson and Mayer value? I mean, that's part of it. It's still relevant. It's like I'm comparing like a, like what's his ownership there? Let's see. Does it say 7.5? That might be. Yeah, that's totally reasonable. Yeah. ETR has it at 10. He has the fifth highest down. Yeah, I'm really splitting hairs between like, I don't know, like a 7% Caleb and a 4% Bryce Young. So it's not much of a difference, but I just think we could get Bryce Young overlooked. But I mean, I am worried about the line. Yeah. Yep. Let's see here. A couple of the popular spots. We mentioned the Bengals, but also the Lions are going to be super popular here. Very condensed, massive team total. You got the clean, bring backs there on the Saints. What are you seeing with the Lions? I made a few lineups right before this, and I'm not sure if it's just a popular spot. I think it might blow everything away because of the pricing. Okay. So to the, and what is, it's an efficient way to spend a good amount of your salary with like Goff, St. Brown, Jamison. And then where do you follow that? If it, if it does, you even have the Olave, Juwan Johnson. So it's actually, it's the easiest thing to do. Like even, I don't know like what optimal, like a cash build might look like, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's five of them in this game. Yeah. So does that mean something you, you mostly stay away from, or do you like to pick your spots still? I don't even think it's wrong. I just, I'm actually not sure what to do. It's just more about being careful with how you do it. Yeah. Like for Lions, you might not take, just, JMO with LaPorta. Cause right. One's big play and one's like touchdown reliant. It's kind of hard. Or maybe like LaPorta is just tougher to pair with these guys just because such a high rate of his receptions could be touchdowns. Whereas like you could kind of work in St. Brown anywhere because he might get a 25 on DK without a touchdown. Yeah. Yeah. LaPorta is a one-off. If you're playing away from this game as a way, he scores the two touchdowns. And a lot of this chalk craters definitely sounds kind of intriguing. Yeah. It's hard to do that usually because it helps the quarterback, but it's not as if golf is going to do much with his legs. So, or a lion's defense, something, something weird like Gibbs in the lions, something like that. Yeah. 3,200. But like, it's the same story with the saints. It's Chuck is cheap. A lot of it is like a lot of it had his career year and he's priced pretty low. What do you think about Bailey? The chat was talking about Bailey. Could he be a potential pivot off of the Juwan? Find out what his role is real quick. Well, is he, is he a clear to Bailey? Yeah. I mean, I thought he was good to go. I mean, Juwan Johnson would be like a clear number two. I mean, I mean, he had a good year. Oh yeah. It's like, it's like overall, like it's an underrated offense for sure. Like I would like to be on the saints overall. Yeah. It might just be difficult in this week relative to the ownership. Like they look like a pretty good offense. Do you have any thoughts on initially? It seemed like, you know, Travis HN was going to have this backfield to himself. And now it sounds like Camara has a real shot to play. Normally you would say, Hey, maybe the running backs, the way to, to get unique here. What do you think of that? I'm not sure. Even if Camara would have played, I wouldn't be too scared of HN. That could also be a fair way to play this game. If you want to fade it just more, just more running back things. It's it's, you can't really say the same for Gibbs because he's, he's much more explosive and we'll catch more balls and like not take as much time, but it's, it's just like, it's just the fact that like the pricing makes it too easy. Like the pricing of this game relative to the Tampa game. It's so much easier here. Yeah. And the targets are more condensed. There's you have guys that are explosive and have a high TD rates, but you also have just on the lion's side, the pocket passer, who's never going to get, take points away from his playmakers. And, and throwing it a lot. That's sort of the argument though. And like in Tampa that like that game is probably, I mean, the total is higher, but the ownership is like the third. Yeah. We are of course guys on run the Sims here. I believe I was talking to brick ahead of time. It sounds like Sunday. The site will be free. The new single lineup builder. If you guys just want to check that out, sign up with a free account stuff like the props, the full one, 50 SIM lab and stuff. You're still going to have to pony up for that. I know it says on the screen 10% off, but I believe 20% off with promo code Pete. That's your first payment. So if you do one month, it'll be, you know, 20% off first month, or if you do the annual, you can get 20% off the annual. I had a lot of fun building in the SIM lab last year, and we can go ahead and build a few lineups here. It looks like you guys have made some, some updates to it as well. Since I last was running some NFL stuff, you know, yeah, they've been doing a lot behind the scenes. Some of which I'm not even aware of here. There you go. You're, you're a great ambassador for the site, you know, no, um, let me, let me run, uh, this year. I'll be using it on Sunday though. Yes. I just have to get up to speed. Yeah. Let's, uh, let's build some lineups here and, and we'll see if we can find any of our favorites, you know, bubbling to the top as far as, uh, some of those builds. And yeah, check this out at run the Sims. I have the link in the show notes, uh, whether you're watching this on YouTube or via the audio. Looks like we got 627 people watching live. Appreciate everybody tuning in for the first of many DFS shows on Fridays. After this, we're going to have Mike Leone from establish the run on, and then we will wrap up with often on the clock with the badge bros covering the underdog slate. I also want to mention one thing while this is running. We have a free roll for everyone on FanDuel this week. The people at FanDuel put up a $5,000 prize pool for us. $1,000 to first in the top 500 finishers are getting bonus cash on FanDuel. I have that link pinned in the chat and in the show notes as well. Literally completely free hop in going forward. That free roll is going to be just for YouTube members, but this week it is available for everyone. So take advantage of that. And I will be reviewing all of those lineups on Monday morning. On the portfolio review. So not only do you get that free bonus cash, but also some on stream glory here. Um, you to, are there any other, uh, spots or things you're thinking about heading into, uh, this slate, uh, you know, beyond kind of the macro uncertainty. Um, did you see the news on Tua when you, yes, I wanted to ask you about that. Yeah. Um, there's not much. Well, like I rush is starting. So he's kind of a, it's, it's a downgrade for sure. Um, like, like two is going to be a game manager, but he can still do some good things like throw a ball with touch and stuff like that. So rush probably just eliminate some of the variance while having like a slower median. So it kind of, um, creates like much more or kind of like ensures more systemic risk without having as much doesn't ensure more systemic risk, but there's less upside to justify Atlanta stuff in my opinion. Um, and then you're also like going hostile environment, I think on the road Pittsburgh. So it's hard to see. It kind of takes away from some of that ceiling appeal there. Um, and for Pitt and might make sort of scripts where they can score a bunch of touchdowns a little more likely. Yeah. Yeah. I was, I mentioned with JM, uh, that I thought Rico in the running game might be a little interesting if they're controlling the game there. Could that be a spot you could see yourself getting into? Yeah, I guess that's, that's like someone who would benefit. I'm not like, it does dull some of the shootout potential for sure. Yeah. I could see Dowdle or like, you know, Pitt defense might, it's probably a play anyway. So Pitt defense Dowdle. Yeah. Yes. That one. Uh, are you playing any survivor this year? Cause that's also an interesting one where I know, I think probably a lot of people are going to want to play Steelers. I'm not personally in, but I'm like exposed. Okay. I, I hear you. Uh, I did just get an update from brick that we have unfortunate timing that the Sims are being updated right now. And so, uh, what we're running right now might not show on screen, but you guys can check this out. Um, over on run the Sims. You said you were, um, did, did you say you ran a, or built a few lineups right before the show? Right. It was just a good idea. just what optimal projections stuff we're saying so that's sort of how i got onto detroit is just way above everything else yeah yeah where did anything else pop up in the lineups you ran that you uh you found interesting um it was just kind of float everything so much went to detroit that anything relative that was like secondary became slightly more appealing but it probably flattens out over time because yeah it's pretty sharp the market by kickoff were there anything else that you would ask well one thing i was trying to get you know the the chargers are interesting just because they have the biggest implied team total on the slate are right there in line with the lions and yet maybe a little bit more ambiguity about what they're going to look like with mike mcdaniel do you have any any thoughts on that the ambiguity is mostly what scares me because people want to buy into it looking good but in week this particular week one i'm just not really going to feel good about anything um um um But I think basically any bigger underdog this week is probably more likely to have it close than usual. And so that would include Arizona, where they actually have more continuity than the Chargers. And in fact, since they're playing Arizona, they might even treat it like a bit more of a preseason anyway, because they're not as much of a threat or Arizona is not really much of a threat to win outright. So if L.A. is still going to figure this stuff out, it could be here. And usually that doesn't look amazing as far as stats output. Are we getting our first gold star betting lock of the week, Cardinals plus 10 from you to count? Like, no, like it wouldn't be. I would probably like if I had to pick, I would probably do that. Yes. I wouldn't give it any stars. Have you have you fired any stars across various sportsbooks and prediction markets? Yeah, it was yesterday was probably my best one. So, well, I don't think off the top of my head. I mean, I said I already like Jets. Yeah. Jets, Tampa, right? Yeah. Jets, you're getting it looks like plus two and Tampa, you'd be getting plus four. Yeah. Anything I sort of was bullish in here probably would reflect. In the betting market, like Pitt, probably, probably OK. I don't know if it moved after the news, but. Yeah, it was funny. Maybe the chat could tell me, but I don't think the line actually or maybe it just moved a smidge. Yeah. Pitt minus three there. That does seem a little light. It's probably not. Yeah, did it? It's probably moves by now. Yeah. There you go. Let's see here. Andrew has a question. How should I build in a one? Thousand player field with two K to first year? Do you have any just general thoughts about so you can just play like you can just correlate heavily and have a high projection because you don't really need to like separate that much from the field? Well, it's not that it's it's it's more that like, oh, he says much is going. Oh, 20 K to first. OK, that's. Yeah, well, that's more that's more of a regular structure than it's kind of like it's just like a midfield. It's top heavy, but you you still really want to get first, so you don't have to go crazy, but you need either a lot of correlation or some type of low ownership or a combination of both. But again, you're not playing Millie maker, so it's not as if you have to do it all. Do you fight in the smaller stuff like that? Do you find yourself doing bigger on slots and overstacking? I mean, if it was like more. Flat, I would. Yeah. Well, at least it would be I would be open to doing more of an onslaught in the game. That's most appealing value wise. But it just it's really it always going to depend. I can't really give an answer. Chat confirming that the Falcons line, the Steelers move from three to five and a half, three and a half to six. So, yeah, it looks like that's the new number. OK, I mean, that's that's completely fair. I don't I don't know if I'm doing six, five or if it comes back, maybe we're going from we're taking stars away at the new line. The stars were just for the minus three. There you go. Well, you thank you. Excited to to chop it up with you every Friday. We'll get the the Sim runner cooking for next week. People can go check that out and take advantage on Sunday of the free stuff. If you want to check out the full Sim runner, you can use promo code Pete there. We get the dog bark at any any final thoughts here on your way out. You know, good luck. Just good to be back. Yeah, man. Good to be back. I'm sure we will be seeing your name at the top of the leaderboard. You'll be sending me the screenshots that we can pull up here in no time. All right. All right. We'll catch you. Peace, man. All right. There goes Yuta. And very excited to. I don't have an intro music for this this new show yet. We will work on that. But this is a new addition to the Friday DFS block. He tried to hide from me during best ball season. He's like, I'm not doing best ball breakfast. And then I roped him back in to a show here on Fridays. How are you doing, Leone? We're back. I'm doing well. You know, no intro music, though. What's what's going on with that? Do you have like a busy week or something? We've been juggling, you know, just a just a few things, just a few things. But we're good. We're going to get back on track here. And yeah, super excited to do this. This show with you. I love messing around with the solver. I know you're going to be doing some stuff over on establish the run as well. I thought for this show, I thought it would be fun to kind of get suggestions from the chat on, you know, maybe something they really like that's contrarian. Maybe it's something really popular that they want to play. We can kind of test some things, figure out, you know, what makes sense. What is the math saying right now? Obviously, ownership projections stuff can change by the time we record this. But I think it could give us, you know, a good baseline heading into the weekend. Yeah. And it's I think it's just a good exercise to get a sense of like, you know, what kind of combination sim well, what we're looking at. And even if, you know, the sims are going to get better over the course of the weekend with, you know, ownership projections tidying up injury situations becoming muddier. But it's still really useful to me, at least to like get this good grounding early in the week to work. One of the things that I always feel that I don't know if other people feel this way with DFS, especially on a slate is wide open and as deep as this one is just like, where do you start, right? Because like you could go quarterback by quarterback, team by team, like when you are starting to build your lineups, do you have an angle in mind and you're kind of lock buttoning something and then testing from there? Like, are you going top down or building from the ground up? Like, how do you even start? I'm probably starting more broad, which is like. Just throw in some generic single stacks, right? Just hit the game stack or the QB stack option, throw on the ETR variants. Usually I'll optimize by projection and ceiling 50-50 blend on solver and just sim a whole bunch of teams with like very little manual input or oversight whatsoever, just to sort of see what combos and what QBs are doing well. That's where I like to start. If I'm like have a whole ton of time, I might go do the same thing. Literally lock in quarterback by quarterback. I might pre-filter those quarterbacks though, so I don't waste time on ones that just like really don't seem like they have any ceiling. For sure. Also, I believe, I think what I want to do on this show is focus a little bit more on fan duel. It doesn't mean that we can't mess around with some DK stuff, but because I'm going to be predominantly talking about DK with JM and Yuta, I would like to do some fan duel with Leone. And also. As I mentioned before, we have a $5,000 free roll for you guys on fan duel this week. I'll be playing over there. So I think it will be good to work that muscle Leone. I know you guys are going to be trying to cover fan duel on established the million as well, right? Yeah, we have always covered it, but it's always kind of been like a little bit of a throw in admittedly. So we hired a couple of people to come in. Uh, Nate is one of the guys we hired was already helping get some of the ownership tied it up before we. Did this show to help the Sims be in a better spot. So ownership will be in a better spot for ETM, which means the Sims will be in a better spot. I'm definitely making it more of a point to play on fan duel in the MME and small field contest each week. Uh, last year was way more sporadically. So I'm looking forward to that. I think FanDuel gets less attention. It's a little bit softer. You do have to dig sometimes for the contest selection you want. It's going to be a little bit different than draft Kings if you're used to playing on draft Kings, but they do still have, um, they have some really good small field stuff and you just got to look for like, it's just pretty small field. Uh, if you look at like the 400 to 800 people contests, for example. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going to be playing in, I registered for the two to two single entry, uh, for this week over there, which looked like a really nice, uh, small field contest. So yeah, excited to, uh, to dive in. I do have the solver pulled up here. Leonie, where, where would you like to start? We could, um, you know, someone said Baker stacks. We're coming off of Yuta saying he's liking the box here. Um, if you were to start testing stuff and we wanted to start with Baker. Do you, do you go into the rules and enforce a skinny stack or do you like even running a set, um, with no correlation rules to start? No, I, I like to force at least some correlation unless it's a Lamar type, you know, quarterback or Josh Allen, sometimes I'll open it up. But, um, and even with Baker, you know, I'll probably run it generically once to kind of see who he pairs best with, but I have a feeling after we run it once, we're just going to end up locking Igbuka in the subsequent runs. Um, just to kind of dial things in and not waste simming lineups that don't have, you know, the kind of the clear stack partner that we want. When you do it. Uh, so I, uh, just for people who aren't as familiar, you can go into these settings, go in advance. You can also save different settings so you don't have to constantly update them. Um, for under the stacks here, would you include running back, um, in your Baker stack or just I would include, I would include running back. Yeah. Okay. And just do, um, um. Um, MIT at least one min one, or how would you play that? I do at least one to start. I would set the, once you get off the, that's all I would do on this screen to start. I wouldn't force a bring back to start. I would set. Yeah. That to 50, 50 on projection and ceiling. Um, and then the variance I would set at the ETR variance, um, in the kind of right next to. Yeah. Yeah. To I usually use the ETR one, which is just a little. Formula based off our ceiling and whatnot, which might, I feel like it gets more of the low owned, higher upside players that you won't naturally get if you're just doing like pure optimal. So I like to do that to have a broader base to start and like get a good variety of lineups. Yeah. So let's run it here with the lock button. I should also mention as this is happening, you guys can get $10 off the solver optimizer. So this is different than the draft assistant. This is the optimizer in the simulator lab. You can get $10 off. If you're a new customer with Pete 10, Pete 10. So if you guys want to dive in and enjoy the solver with me, take advantage of that promo code. Um, we're running some optimals now, and then we can take those over to the SIM, but what do you, um, when you run the optimals, Leonie, is there anything you're looking for, or do you just take the, uh, the set and then get right to simming them? I'm just taking this set. I'm getting right to simming them. And then if I want to whittle down, I kind of do it before I optimize. Like I kind of said, maybe we do this once, and then we see a few things that's like, okay, we clearly like this, then let's lock a few things and start to narrow it down. Um, what lineup are we, we, or what contest are we simming here? Yeah, let, well, real quick, before we do that, you said, um, just one thing more micro, I want to ask you about, you said, I assume Igbuka would be the one which I, you know, as someone who's doing the product projections, I, I understand why you would have known that was going to happen, but just curious, why do you think Igbuka at 64, um, is popping so much over Godwin who's significantly cheaper? Yeah, right now we just have a wide, we have a one and a half. Oh, sorry, sorry. I'm lying about being significantly cheaper. I was like, uh, DraftKings mode and, uh, they're within a hundred dollars here on FanDuel. So they're pretty close. Igbuka is pretty cheap, uh, right now, you know, ownership's early, but we don't, we have them both to sub 10%. So even though we have Igbuka. Igbuka twice, Godwin's ownership. It's low enough that we'd rather just go with the, uh, um, higher projected player. This is like a new, new feature too, is you can select your contest. If you have an entries file too, you can just upload your FanDuel entries file and then select the contest you're actually registered from there. Assuming we have those set up in Solver. That's awesome. Um, just for the purposes of this, let's do like one of the bigger ones here. Um, maybe you want it, should we do like the Sunday snap here? Uh. So 29,000. Yeah. Let's do that. Let's just kind of see what, uh, what we're looking for here. And then explain to people what this means as far as selecting the field, the projected versus the actual, that's not even an option, right? Yeah. So post lock, you could, we could redo this and SIM against the actual field that was played in the, in the snap, uh, pre-lock we're only using projected, obviously if we do the actual field, we'd be, we'd be onto something there. Yes. Um, there was also the, um. Um, the portfolio builder, um, we can talk about that another day, but I'm just going to run these now. And then for people who aren't used to this Leone, you see, uh, a SIM ROI and a cash rate. I feel like that's, um, fairly self-explanatory, but what should someone care about more between those two? You're definitely, you care more about the SIM ROI because I mean, we're playing tournaments to win. That's generally where your EV is and you just care about your overall EV. I do factor in cash rate a little bit. I think there might even be some more. That is to the right. If not, I know sometimes we show like top 10 and whatnot. Um, but yeah, the SIM ROI is the main one. Now it's going to be a little bit volatile because so much of your ROI depends on if you actually outright win and bank, it's going to affect your ROI so much. So I don't think you want to get like too focused on like this lineups got 89% ROI. This lineups only got 82%. Like I would treat those lineups very similarly. I did it kind of a study on the post-lock SIMs. And, um, once you get past a certain threshold, the SIMS are very good at telling you like, what is a good lineup, but it's a little bit harder to distinguish between like the absolute best lineup and like just another very good lineup. And one thing like when we, we forced a skinny stack. So every one of these will have one teammate with Baker, but I always like to see are any additional Buccaneers bubbling up into the stacks, just saying, Hey, there's, there's value or good plays. And just glancing through these lineups, it doesn't look like it loves the value to put a second, uh, Buccaneer in these. Yeah. And you, the thing that is interesting though, is we did not force a game stack and yet you do see bangles pretty littered through these lineups with just that naturally occurring. So that's kind of like a pretty clear signal that like, okay, we're probably going to force a bring back on the next one. Most of these are at Bucca. I am curious to like large field, how, uh, Hearst. Sims. I assume he'll be very low and, uh, Jalen McMillan's not going to play. He was, you know, rookie getting some buzz and sometimes on fan dual, you can build these like three expensive running back lineups and just, if you just bank a touchdown from the cheap wide receiver. So that's something, you know, average ROI there's negative on him, but, um, I it's something that I would probably test if I was doing my own lineups, like maybe lock him with a Bucca, see how that looks. Sometimes you don't get a big enough. Sample of doubles when you just do the, at least one. So I might do a second run with, you know, a Bucca lock, but then making it a double stack and see if any combos pop that way. And would you, another thing, obviously we're seeing the first look at some of these, uh, SIM ROI. So 123%, do you find it helpful to run maybe a batch of just generic skinny stack lineups to see like, what is the ROI that's popping? Because it's like 1 23, you don't know if that could potentially be the highest. That you're going to see all day, or is that like, are there 400, 500% lineups out there? No, that's where I do. Like I said, I do like to start with just running a bunch of skinny stack lineups, um, with no QB selected. I might even do max max, like 10% on a QB just to get that barometer, like you said. Um, but then generally, if I'm doing this, you save the top lineup. I'd probably save all the lineups that just eyeballing it SIM, like, you know, better than 50% ROI, or you could just do the top 20% by ROI, which you you've got by default there. I probably just save all those. And then I kind of like just keep saving them. And then at the end, I'm sending all my saved lineups together to figure out my final set. Yeah. So you guys could see there, if you use the quick select, you can kind of figure out how you want to do it. You could obviously manually do it if you want. And then you hit save. And now when we go and run, um, lineups, you'll see, we built 500. Um, now we have 101. Lineups here. Save. So you can keep kind of curating that as you test more things. Uh, what did you say would be fun to try now? A double stack with Baker or to kind of, I would do a double let's try adult. Let's get more narrow. Let's do a double stack with Baker, but we'll lock a book as one of the, the two. So we'll do at least two, we'll keep running back in there and let's do a bring back here. You can just hit the generic game stack right here, um, or you can go and do, oh, I see what you're saying. Just hit the, uh, there you go. That'll automatically set that rule of like one bring back, which is running back wide receiver tight end. All right. We'll lock Igbuka run this again. Um, so now we're seeing, and the other nice thing you can look over here in the optimals on the right, and you can see obviously Baker and Igbuka are going to be a hundred percent because we locked them, but now we can see Bucky and 33% of these God, when you can kind of get a gauge of what it's saying is the next best fucking years play. Yeah. Yeah. I can do two or sometimes I'll do like, let's say, you know, we, we like Ted Hearst for whatever reason. Yeah. I might, but he's just Sims. Okay. I might fool around a little bit with editing his SIM mean projection, which kind of just raises his projection across the, all the SIM iterations by a little bit and sort of see like what our range is like. Sometimes if you change a guy half a point to a point, he seems really well and you're like, okay. Like projections. You're like, that's great. And then sometimes it's like, you gotta raise the guy three points for him to SIM. Well, and then at that point, you're kind of like, well, maybe, maybe he's just not good play uh i've always i always wonder this to leonie so when you've run uh a sim already that already happened each time you run it um you can do a different sim or you have the option here to use the field as a previous sim what are the pros and cons of using that so the pros of using the same field is that like you're kind of comparing apples to apples you're playing against the exact same field lineups that you were the previous sim run that we ran the negatives are our ownership isn't perfect and our field lineups isn't perfect so there's a little bit of variance each time you run against a different field lineup and i kind of like doing that especially at the end when i've curated like my set maybe for the initial set i might run against the same field so i'm like simming all the baker lineups against you know comparing them apples to apples but at the end once we have like let's say we've saved 300 lineups that we like the most we're figuring which one out to play i might run it a few times against different field lineups just to make sure that like i didn't just happen to catch one where like derrick henry was really low we're like oh henry sims so great with baker and it's like well we run it again three more times and it doesn't happen again and that really is i think the where you get the most value out of you know sims in general right is testing tweaking um and seeing what is popping up over and over again um i did use the previous field sim so we could have that apples to apples effect and we do get three over a hundred percent here um an igbuka otten one at the top and then a few igbuka godwin so that kind of classic premium double there yeah so that's a good tell that like okay the double is definitely in play it's not required you know because we had some singles that simmed about this well but we get a lot of doubles it tells it's in play and you'll notice obviously as we lock stuff and we know what the sims like the rois in general on the teams are gonna start to come up um this is where too i'll start to kind of look at some of the running back pairings and try and get a sense of what it's liking outside of this stack you know what pairs well with it you're bringing up i like bringing up the view that you just did on specific lineups too to yeah get a sense of like what the ownership is looking like um and you can see this is a right now it's a pretty low owned double you know we'll see what happens going into the weekend i think the borough side is definitely going to be more popular you see chase is at 28% but uh we're getting a much more leveraged version of the game stack by playing the tampa bay side one thing i noticed when we're rolling the skinnies we were getting um chase in the majority uh of the baker bringbacks when you force the double specifically with the godwins we're getting more higgins which kind of makes sense because you're also seeing um if you're doing that you still want to get in two of these high owned three of these high owned or highly projecting running back plays the one that has chase you do go down um to hampton in genti kind of away from derrick henry there too uh which i believe is costing you a good bit more and there's a few other things you're going to see in the sims that are kind of routine for me to see which is one sometimes if there's a cheap defense that's chalky but projects really well it's going to tell you to just eat the chalk defense uh even though you kind of think like defense is super variant like why would you ever play the chalk defense it's kind of saying like that's not where you're making and breaking your slate like take the good value at a salary relief and then get in some of the players that make more of a difference on the slate so that's why you see a lot of titans and jets like either side of that game um the other thing you see that people sometimes are confused about at first is some genti with mayor loveland with swift we see in there and i think people sometimes overthink like if they don't have the quarterback then they only want one player from a team but you are still good to stack other teams without the quarterback uh generally if the whole offense is having a good day multiple people can still benefit sometimes um especially the last couple years we've seen slates where there's only a few really high scoring teams and they can really command the entire slate so don't be afraid of pairing teammates together even though you don't have the quarterback um just to hit a few questions from the chat ryan so initially when we're talking players that's the optimizer and then when you hit simulate and we kind of check those settings then we're sending those optimizer um teams over to the sim to see how they grade out so the the optimizer is kind of just where you start from from scratch to get those lineups and then you test them this is a good question from jmg and as someone who hasn't played historically a ton on fan duel do you think onslaughting works you know more or less equal on fan duel than dk or just kind of the principles of correlation with the you know half point ppr instead so all else equal i think it works a little bit less on fan duel because well you do get the bonuses on fan duel now you didn't used to get the bonuses but with the the half ppr versus the full ppr um there's just less ways for multiple teammates to get a ceiling performance like on dk you can get a guy that goes like you know eight for 90 and has a really good day and a guy that goes three eight for 90 you know it isn't as impactful so your teammates do at a certain point start to compete for like who's actually scoring the touchdowns like that's how guys are separating on fan duel is the touchdowns um so i think it works a little bit less but i do think sometimes because it works less people maybe take that heuristic and like overdo it and are like too afraid to do it so i hate the cop-out answers but it's kind of nuanced like there's going to be some slates you still want to do it on fan duel yes um you know before i eject us or we try some other builds you know if you were going down this path um obviously we've kind of seen that baker doubles are live what other things would you kind of investigate or test before you kind of arrived on the baker lineup you really wanted to play yeah i'd look at okay so i don't see a lot of hearst and i think you know you kind of get i see one hearst lineup up there i think but you can see from your godwin igbuka stuff that running backs so i think with hearst is just saying the cap relief isn't like getting you a ton now you do on the hearst lineup i believe you get the one that seemed well is jt and henry which looks like together is probably not going to be played a ton and there's obviously two very high ceiling backs i know they're in the same game and sometimes people get weird because rbrb are a little bit negatively correlated but in a high scoring game where those guys have so much you can definitely play them together so it's kind of interesting to see that like i see why he doesn't sit well overall it's because you can play gibbs swift and genti together you know without dropping down from godwin to to hearst um but at the same time there's still some leverage you're getting with him so i like to kind of like just look at the nuances of that and like try and back into like why they're not going to be able to play them together so i think that's kind of sims may or may not be liking something yeah um why don't we chat if you have another specific uh stack or player or combo you want us to test uh why don't you toss that out i kind of want to just run a generic um double stack here i guess i have double stack and a bring back on and we can kind of just see what maybe the baseline is for this slate right now where things are gravitating to you know we went through a lot of the ownership percentages on uh the the the the the the the on draft kings but here looking at fan duel does look like herbert and goff and burrow are going to be the most popular quarterbacks here how do you think about obviously the sims are incorporating ownership i know like you know the hand builder mentality is like okay let me see the chalk you know quarterbacks let me play something off of that how do you think about ownership relative to like making those decisions yourself or just kind of letting the sims guide you in the way to to playing chalk players in a smart way if that makes sense yeah i'm letting the sims guide me but i'm always cognizant of the specific contest i'm playing where those ownerships could be wrong you can edit the sim ownerships to help that but generally if i get a few things simming competitively with one another i do find myself liking like the lower owned version just kind of knowing that our inputs aren't absolutely perfect you know obviously the sims are going to like some of the stuff we projected etr because that's the way it's going to be but i think it's going to be that's like what's driving the sims so if i get things that are a little bit more contrarian simming pretty closely to things that are chalky i i like the contrarian side of things just again that little unknown element where i feel like i'm almost free rolling an element of like well there's more volatility than we expect you know give me the lower owned side all else equal yeah i will sometimes mess around with because the one thing that's i think important with the sims is like there's a bias in terms of what lineups you test and like what you get in the optimizer where you might be like oh i'm only getting you know chalky lineups but that's because like as you said like we're testing 45 percent gibbs it's hard for me to see on the screen but yeah sorry so there's a bias in what you're testing so sometimes i might go into the settings and be like give me the generic double stack but give me one player that's sub 10 owned in every lineup so that i can start testing some of these lower owned players and then i can test them and players that maybe naturally only get into like five or six lineups. And then it's like. Like you're at the mercy of if those lineups happen to be good. Like if the lineups around a low owned play just happened to stink and then you think that player is not a good play because of it, you need to kind of test that a little bit more thoroughly. And that's probably a good note in general, right? Like if you were just skimming the top of the surface with the Sims, I mean, the solver is a popular tool. A lot of players are going to be using it. Digging deeper is probably also a really good way to make sure you're getting into different parts of the solver game tree for a specific week, which will naturally maybe make your combos, your lineups more unique than people who are just kind of pressing the two surface level buttons. Yeah. And we can go through some, you can see there's like a Jameson William lineup that pops here. Like that's a type of player that, you know, sub 10% own high ceiling, but maybe the base projection isn't like insane. You might not be getting into a ton. I, you know, sometimes I'll just lock the one off and test it that way. Yeah. And this is so. I basically just ran the double stack and a bring back with no specific quarterbacks force, mainly because I was just kind of curious, what kind of SIM ROI are we seeing here? And this is, you know, one 28% for these burrows. There's a Herbert, there's a shuck at the top, but just kind of ballparking the range of SIM ROI. This isn't even that different than the hyper specific Baker doubles with a bring back that we were running. No. So I guess there's two, it does make, you know, those Baker lineups seem like they're legitimately good. They were competing with the best of the generic double stacks, but obviously we curated them a little bit more in terms of simming them once and resimming them. I imagine the burrow stuff right now, even with him being higher owned is going to sim pretty well for seeing that many burrow lineups just naturally get up there. Yeah. A big part though, is like, I think, I do think this seems like a buka quite a bit on this slate, at least right now, we'll see how that develops. One thing you'll notice with these burrow lineups is because they're not going to be the premium double stack with chase and Higgins, you're having to go down at running back. So we're seeing a lot of Marshawn Lloyd in these burrow lineups in a way we weren't seeing him with the Baker stuff where you had a little bit more salary to play with. Yeah. And I'd say, you know, I'm, you asked me before if I'm kind of trusting the Sims, they guide me. I am like overall where I'm probably like trusting the Sims. If something Sims 30% versus 120%, you know, the 120% lineups probably. But then within these burrow lineups compared to Baker, like I said, I, I kind of liked the lower owned version, which is the Baker side. I also on fan dual do you just a field perspective, but if it's close, I do like those three running back stud lineup teams where you get the a hundred yard bonus and half PPR, you know, the touchdown scoring matters a ton. So I do like our, our Baker lineups as I'm eyeing up the alternative. Yeah. Um, I feel like this might be a fun one to test here. Kyler and Justin Jefferson, uh, you know, JM kind of said, it's just like the what if thing, like, well, what does this look like? Right? Like, I feel like the range of outcomes here is, is pretty wide in both directions. Um, and I'm kind of curious just how the Kyler correlation plays out. Right. Because we know with some of these guys, Alan Lamar, the stack is not imperative. Um, Kyler, I feel like you can kind of swing either way and it like depends on how much rushing. You think he's going to do, I guess, first question as I set this up is, uh, do you guys have Kyler rushing for a good bit, uh, this week? Yeah. Let me pull that up. Um, cause I was just looking at it. I know we have a pretty healthy value projection on Kyler on FanDuel right now. We have him rushing for, um, yeah, about, about 25 rush yards and a quarter of a touchdown. So a pretty solid. So a pretty solid rushing projection, but nothing crazy, you know, nothing like Lamar, Jaden, those guys are going to project for almost twice the yardage or one and a half times the yardage is Kyler. Yeah. Um, Hey, let's, you know, we're, we're going to try to focus on important things on this show. Uh, go easy cards. Uh, you can run in sim Kirk cousin stacks on your own time. That's, that's not something I want to do with my time here with Mr. Michael Leone. Although maybe one time. I spent an entire lineup build show last season doing Davis mill stats. So, uh, you know, things get sick and twisted in the sim sometimes let people know kind of your, um, obviously people know about established the million, but let them know kind of your schedule for, uh, DFS content this fall. Yeah. It's going to be Thursdays. I'm going to be doing a show with Silva in season man versus machine. So I'm pretty pumped about that, but it'll be, I think a little less combative than the, the off season version, uh, kind of big picture items with him. Um, this show with you each Friday, Saturday morning with dink on established a million. And then I do a lineup build show on Saturday nights, which is a similar version to what we're doing now. Honestly, like, like talking to, um, people, viewers comments and testing different things. And, uh, I'll go through a little bit more in depth, maybe some of the projections I disagree with that. I'm like altering a little bit and stuff. Um, but it's a very similar thing to what we're doing now. Uh, looking at both draft Kings and fan dual. I did just run some Kyler skinny stacks. I didn't force a bring back or anything. We once again are in this same ballpark of the top four or five lineups being between the like one 10 to one 25% SIM ROI range. So again, we're, we're early into the testing, but it is kind of saying a little bit like this week is a choose your own adventure that you can build, you know, pretty decent lineups in a lot of different directions, which does kind of make me feel like I'm going to be able to do this. I'm going to be able to do this. And I'm going to be able to do this. rois um still a ton of variance even playing a small field tournament but less variance than the the really large field stuff one just like very quick eyeball thing i'm noticing with the smaller field which checks out is i'm seeing some more uh running back included in the stack so like hampton with herbert in lad i see a goth with um jamo in almond raw down here um uh or sorry gibbs with almond raw so that also kind of checks out too where sometimes that negative correlation doesn't play as well with tens of thousands of entries but smaller field you're like let me just get the one offense that scores 40 yeah you don't have to hit the full parlay of getting the 90th percentile outcome from everyone you just need to get a couple 90th percentile outcomes and then have the rest of the team not sink the ship and you do sometimes you see that second lineup there which is like like one game stack and then like two other teams right um yeah i do like to do this and really small field stuff sometimes um usually it's not working out quite like this but sometimes i'll end up with a uh like like two game stacks in one lineup almost this isn't quite that but you do get two pairs of teammates not involved in the game with mayor and genti and with uh gibbs and almond raw one thing i wanted to ask you we haven't really hit on it um all of these lineups that we're running i want to say it's like 99 titans defense and jets defense and i assume we can go look at the uh the ownership for these but yeah they are pacing to be the two most popular here on um fan duel how do you think about that because you know the old heuristic like way back at our like pre-sim dfs days we'd be like playing the chalk defense is the fishiest thing you can do uh and then you see all of these lineups with the chalk defenses how do you square that yeah i've had a tough time squaring that i've definitely been the like you like how the defense is so volatile what in the world are you doing playing the chalk defense uh and i remember once we launched the sims getting a lot of chalk defense and ricky d who was a big sim player uh dming me and being like i used to always feel so dumb using my sims you guys would say the chalk defense was bad to play so i'm glad to see that you guys are on it i think it's ultimately what the sims are saying is that especially when you get a cheap chalk defense like that's just not the spot in your lineup to choose to kind of like make or break your day you can get a cheap very good value defense it's probably not going to matter that much and it's going to open up the rest of your lineup for these higher ceiling ways to play things now i think if you had a really expensive chalk defense the sims might not like it as much but if we're sorting on fan duel stuff i think it's going to be a really good value defense and i think it's going to be a salary the floor on defense is three thousand dollars and the jets are 3 400 the titans are 3 200 fan duel also has a pretty wide spread at defense so the most expensive defenses get up to five thousand dollars yeah so um but yeah it's something i've tried to square for sure and and you do look at obviously the um the value relative to the projection matters and you see not only are the titans and jets the most popular but it tracks with the value so i mean the projection of eight points for the titans i mean that's like higher than a lot of teams that are more expensive than you know the bangles uh you know commanders all of these teams so it does make sense if it's not even just saying like hey you're punting it off it's saying like you're actually getting a defense that projects very well here yeah you're getting the third highest projected defense on the slate at one of the the cheapest salaries the other thing is like if we're saying defense is so volatile in a way it's like so if you don't pick the titans you still have to pick the right one and like that's might be really difficult so now you're going to spend more money on a position that you're hoping for kind of like a weird outcome to happen to get you to differentiate and it's like just make that differentiation elsewhere where it just matters a little bit more and you can be a little bit more certain you're making the right play at wide receiver or running back or whatever some of these naming conventions on the defenses are just cracking me up because it feels like it's a player name like mr j jaguars l charge but then some of them some of them are spelled out like but i'm like who is this mr p eagles yes there you go uh t buccaneers sounds like a very sophisticated individual um any other uh before i get you on your way here and we bring on john and nez to talk some underdog slate strategy you know there's so many bells and whistles on the solver my my fear is always that i'm not harnessing you know the full power of what's here is there anything that we didn't cover today we don't have to go in depth to it but just stuff that you would recommend people fiddle with as they're playing with this one thing i'm going to be fiddling with because i haven't even messed with it too much yet but if you uh go to your saved lineups and sim those when you up you can now like do like a portfolio simulation so build lineup portfolio um so like let's say we wanted to enter 20 lineups in this i'll put it in that big one again yeah yeah and then you can enter in a minimum roi you want your lineups to be let's just say like 30 or something we know those simmed pretty well now you can sim a portfolio which is cool you can kind of see your diversity and whatnot which for me sometimes i haven't played mme because i just haven't felt this comfortable so now uh you get more and you can kind of see the more diversity kind of more difference in players um but the roi you're going to start to sacrifice a little bit so yeah you i wrote an article this off season though that basically said once you get past a certain roi i think the lineups are kind of like similarly good in terms of our predictive power so i do side with the diversity a little bit more just understanding you know there's the level of variance in our inputs yeah and we talked about this concept on a lulz episode previously with shady advice who i know you know does some work with this with his own stuff as well and you know basically how i understand it is what it's helping you do is kind of like avoid your risk of ruin on honestly like building really good lineups it doesn't necessarily change your ceiling but it maybe raises your floor as far as what you get back and making sure you're not overly condensed and vulnerable to like one play wrecking your entire portfolio on that slate i don't know if that tracks for you yeah i mean some of the stuff we're working on is like there's one strategy just max roi right like just play the best roi lineups and even if you account for them cannibalizing each other if you're just maxing roi you still would be surprised how concentrated a set of lineups that like just a straight machine would give you um it's kind of saying like it's fine if these cannibalize these are the best lineups to play just play them um but you can sacrifice not like a ton of that roi and then do what shady said which is like instead of maximizing for straight roi let's maximize the odds that we're profitable on a slate period you know no matter what that profit is so you're kind of trying to meet in the middle there where um you don't have unlimited slates to play to like maximize your roi right so like in terms of maximizing your long-term bank role you might actually be better sacrificing a little bit of that pure upside in order to have a portfolio and a set of lineups that actually lets you build your bank role and i i mean i don't i don't want to say safe gpps are never safe but you know you know in a more realistic fashion i'm probably not explaining that perfectly and no shady's listening he's probably cringing but it's hopefully that makes sense no it's it's a it's a tough concept to to wrap your head around one other thing that like mess with me on it is like your brain initially goes to okay diversity that means like one player isn't going to be showing up in all of the same lineups but then you'll see a player showing up in a lot of the same lineups because that's the sim then telling you the roi and this player's value is so strong that you still need it to build the best possible lineups but there's other things under the hood as i understand it it's like the diversity in the overall lineup uh and what that does not necessarily player specific uh yeah if there's a really really good play it's not going to arbitrarily say like well just play 30 gibbs because you don't want you don't want to lose it so there's still like a risk element where you can be tied into certain players but um now the flip side is gibbs is the best player on the slate even costed you know ownership adjusted when he has the performance we think he can have and project him to now you've got all this diversity around him to your point and you've got a really strong shot of having a profitable slate with one of these stacks hitting instead of you know we've got on the screen burrow kyler baker shuck if we had all burrow lineups just because they were technically the highest roi gibbs goes off but burrow stinks you know we've still lost the slate now gibbs goes off burrow stinks maybe that takes down baker too but we've got shots on shuck and shots on kyler as well yep um i just dropped a couple links in the chat if you guys want to check this out uh over at the solver you guys can get ten dollars off a solver optimizer or simulator sub with code p10 p10 that's for new customers only but that'll get you access to all of these dfs tools whether you're doing draft kings fan duel all of the bells and whistles that you saw us test driving today and also i've Mentioned this a few times. I'll pull it up on screen just to drive it home. We have a $5,000 free roll on FanDuel this week. $1,000 bonus cash to first and all the way down to 500th is getting at least $2 bonus cash. Right now, 176 people are in this. So as of right now, this is quite literally free money just to put a team in. So make sure you guys get into your FanDuel account, register for the 5K Deposit Kingdom Free Play. I'll review these lineups on the Monday morning portfolio review. And I do like the idea of focusing on FanDuel when Leonie is on just to make sure neither of us are cannibalizing too much the other stuff we're doing. So I think that's going to work out well. Leonie, excited to do this with you most weeks whenever you are available. And I'll look forward to Establish the Million and all your other shows this week. Yeah, this is going to be fun. Looking forward to it for the course of the season. All right. We will catch you later. It is now time to shift over to Underdog with my guys, John and Nez. Let me do a little switch here in the Underdog or sorry, the StreamYard Hopper to make sure I got everything. It's time for Off and on the Clock. So you can get in on the sports action no matter where you are, including these places. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. All right, fellas. We are back. We got to chop it up on Wednesday. A good bit. Kind of a first look on the slate. Got to fire in some lineups before they locked me out. But we now have lots of news, lots of movement to discuss. And yeah, excited to dive in with you guys on this Underdog slate. How are you doing? Doing well, John. How are you? I'm good, man. Yeah, I'm good. I got like 25 of them in this morning. So I'm feeling I'm feeling prepped today. Yeah, I'm kind of, you know, in solidarity going to a state that has like never had, uh, underdog in, uh, in, in Louisiana. So, uh, this weekend I won't be able to draft. So I've been going crazy in the BRS. I have four left until I max. So I need to get those done before, uh, I, I head out to, uh, to New Orleans. Yeah. When you said that in the chat that you were going to New Orleans, uh, this weekend, I, I like, I thought there was a map, probably like a 95% chance you knew, uh, that it was an underdog state, but just on the, I just had to just mention it just in case you're like, Oh shit, I got to get all my entries. No, no, it's, it's very important. It's very important that I get my one 50. And so I can donate to the prize pool. So are you going to be sweating the games, uh, in New Orleans on Sunday? I'm actually going to take a really early flight home Sunday so I can get back in time to, uh, to, to lock in and make all the necessary changes that I need to. Um, but yeah, so I'm going to tonight going to give it my all with everybody. I'll give my all Saturday and then, and then leave the bright and early Sunday. So hopefully I'm not, dude, that's how, you know, that's how, you know, you're a true fantasy sicko. Like when you leave the guys tricks, they're like, we're not going to be able to find a place that has red zone. You know, we're going to be hung over just watching one game on the TV. That does not work for me. I need to be in my war room. Yeah. Unfortunately I, I, I got to get home and it's week one. I'm, I'm, you know, I'm, I'm going to give it my all though in exchange for the, the early goodbye. Dude. That's a. It's a dang shame that the saints aren't playing at home this weekend. Cause you get to witness a GMO going for one 80, uh, in real time there. If you stayed, could you imagine? Oh my gosh. Wow. Uh, John getting roast in the chat. Thought John was hitched. Big single guy energy with the photos on the floor. That is the, uh, I'm still working through it right now. I, I got, I got like four boxes over here of shit I have to do to the desk this weekend. So I gotta get, I got the monitor mounts. I got the cable, you know, hiding so you can do the up down with the, with the desk. And then I got to get that stuff on the wall. And I got like four more of those little lights in the back to find out where the hell they go. But I, I'm, I'm just not the guy for the job. I'm not the guy I'm tired boss. Dude, do you know what it always reminds me of? And I, I don't want to like move my camera since it's all set up. Like I have a bunch of, uh, my posters and stuff hanging on the wall here, but I'll never forget when Levitan moved to his house in Colorado and he always tells the story of how he's like, he's like, I had all of these pictures and frames to put up and his wife was like, you deal with it. And he's just like, I called some guy up and just hired him to come hang all my frames. It would ever, I have like three on the ground here and like, I'm, I'm in a, between a rock and a hard place on some of them because I'm just like, Lauren would kill me if I just like hired someone to come put these up. But I'm also like, I never take the time to put these last ones up and they just sit on my floor as well. And in theory, it's so easy. It's like a couple of drywall anchors and like, uh, uh, uh, just. It's like a level on top for like 15 minutes. It's just like, by the time you do all your other shit, you're like the last thing on the world I want to do right now is hang these fucking things. I'm going to support my local handyman on TaskRabbit every time. Yes, exactly. See, honey, I'm just supporting, I'm not being lazy. I'm supporting local businesses. If it's in the office, it goes on the business account anyways, baby. So it's all good. Exactly. Um, all right, let's, uh, we're going to keep the, you know, the same structure here. Obviously we have a little tighter. I know Nez is, is taken off. I know people want us to, uh, to spice it up as well, uh, with, with some pickums here too, but any macro that you guys have been thinking about stuff that is, you know, maybe changed since we last drafted on Friday or what you're kind of noticing in your drafts. I got two just like overarching macros. One's already been said a couple of times is just the fragility of chalk on a week. Once late, like we think we know the answers to the test. And then we come into week one and we get kicked in the mouth. Like look no further than the Patriots Rams and Seahawks combining for 30 points across two games. Like we all thought these were potent offenses and stuff. So when real ball gets played, so that would, that would just be like the first like overarching. And then the second, the second one that I've been thinking a lot of is we didn't talk about the size change and that dynamic into the main slate. So we have been dealing with main slates the last call it. Two years that are like 50 K player pools or entries rather this year's main slate is 22 K, right? And what does that mean for having to hit ultimate ceiling to win the slate or not? So those were two things I've just been messing around with this morning. Yeah. What, what do you, what do you think about that? I mean, obviously we, you know, we're used to it when you're talking about a Debalm contest with 300 versus the main kind of how that changes specifically being more open to, to, it's kind of like twofold, either being more open to just scooping big followers and trying to projection max, or being more open to over stacking in just trying to nail one thing, maybe two things. Does it make you more inclined to lean into one of those elements in a smaller main? I mean, I think it makes me lean more to the onslaughty stuff, but it also makes me lean away from like the a hundred percent own guys even harder because the leverage, you know, the leverage you introduce is even greater. So like I was going back and I was looking at like last year's year one slate and there's like a 6% owned quarterback and there's a 1% own pass catcher. And that speaks like volumes to us, just like not knowing who the best plays are in week one, but then also speaks volumes to like what was necessary to not hold hands with everybody to get to the top. And if it is lions, skinny stack, or it's, you know, lions, GM, GM, or it's a lava has to fall to your Gibbs. If it's that game environment or it is the game environment that is the bangles, like good luck, man. Like you're going to be holding hands with everybody at the top because everyone knows those are the best game environments. Those are the best totals, et cetera. So I'm leaning into the fragility of the slate of like, Hey, we got 10 other games to choose from, you know, I'm not going to fade Gibbs and chase or, or Higgins or anything, but like, I'm going to be just cognizant when I'm making those teams that I'm going to have like a 25% owned guy in those lineups. Or whatever. So I think it would be like twofold, I guess there. Yeah, I fully agree, man. Like it's, it's so hard whenever you first dive into these to, to get away from those games. But I think the way that you do kind of differentiate yourself from everybody else building those same, you know, like four and five, you know, per player cores is like you said, just like just, just finding that contrarian scroll. And there, there's a lot of really good ones this week. Like you said, there's just so much certainty by the field and that's how it works. It always goes in these, right. But week one, obviously is its own special blend of certainty that just is, you know, easy to take advantage of if you just, you know, expand your imagination a little bit. And so, yeah, there's, I have a lot of like really fun angles this week that I'm, that I'm excited to, to attack. Yeah. How, like from just an overall with your guys is portfolios. Like, do you, are you finding yourself more spread out because there are so many ways to attack? Or are you finding yourself, you know, pretty condensed because you think there's just some really mispriced spots? mine right now is condensed but that's just low volume um i think nez could answer the question better now that he's almost done his 150 yeah i was i was pretty condensed and then i tried to spread it out but uh you know my like i have a ton of a lave i have a ton of genti just like the the guys that were just like free squares in these like just like let me just get these guys in 40 of my lineups and see what happens um but i i've tried to spread out uh a decent bit as well and trying to like have certain like exposure thresholds for myself for for quarterbacks and like different combo uh exposure thresholds using the solver to try to you know curb some of the the overexposure that i was running into so i'm definitely playing it flat uh and and shooting shots at some of these lesser owned games uh to try to like capture one of them yep so nez who are who are some of your or both of your guys's who are some of your your big stands so far from an individual perspective yeah for me it's been uh the buccaneers passing offense and just the buccaneers offense in general you would think that i mean the bucks are just like nowhere to be found in the in in the first six rounds of adp and ikbuka's you know been full practice so it seems like they clearly had a plan for him and he's good to go and mcmillan is doubtful about it but i think it's going to be a good game for him and i think it's going to be a good game for him and i think it's going to be a good game mcmillan is doubtful uh so we have pretty concentrated target shares here between ikbuka and godwin and then bucky i you know obviously in uh in the bucky we don't know how gainwell will look alongside him but yeah to me that's just like okay we we we're very confident in the bengals offense obviously there's a high total it's not a very large spread in this game uh it's so overlooked and i and i and i really really like playing that angle so that was something that i getting pretty aggressive on as i was closing out my my 150 yeah i like that man i've been kind of similar where i'm like playing into some of these spots but just doing it from a different angle like people are playing miami pretty heavily through a-chan i've been doing some like naked malik willis just trying to get leverage there i've been doing a lot of naked jayden and playing like nobody really wants to play the entirety of that eagles in washington game so i've been the guy who's played the other side of it with like jayden plus terry or like jayden plus diggs or just naked jayden so those were kind of fun i was doing the same thing as you here with the stuff i like doing like one-off bucky opposite my chase stuff and then just that's like my contrarian leverage piece associated with that lineup jenty was the super obvious one to start the week but now with the etr stuff and his adp climbing like i'm gonna probably break a little bit that's a full 10 spots higher than it was on wednesday right am i saying that correctly 25 yeah steam job yeah he's become like everybody's favorite the one that i'm like experimenting with right now that i want to ask you guys about is chargers stuff man like there's just it's so ambiguous it could go so many different directions and yet everybody is with their gibbs teams like forgive me for using the best ball analogy but like when we saw the ownership stuff from pat donovan the other day it was laughable it was comical that george pickens was paired with jameer gibbs 32 percent of the time or whatever we have the same fallacy hat taking place in this contest where he's just gibbs is paired with omarian hampton and uh trey mcbride like over and over and over again because he just falls back to that side and everybody thinks it's a tear break like i'm just trying to find a different way to play chargers or and different way to play trey mcbride with those gibbs combos right now well we talk about the uh you know the the dk and dfs chalk uh sometimes being a good signal for a nice scroll i mean qj's i'm looking at now 35.4 adp um that's going to keep his draft ownership real low has the matchup has the spike week profile to you know have a two touchdown game hit 100 yards like man that that looks like a gold star scroll to me yeah well said yeah i mean he's just he's the profile that you look for but there's a lot of those guys on this slate where it's like we're just introducing volatility where we want like 480 and one or 480 and two to like get there and like his profile fits that there's like the christian watson matthew golden like when you go down the the rabbit hole of playing like away from justin jefferson in that vikings and packers game nobody else is playing anything else from that game so if that game is a dome game that pops off and goes back and forth like there's a bunch of guys that are you know similar archetypes to quinn johnson that take the ceiling off like they that you can win with there so yeah there's a lot of these fun guys down here and it's largely at the wide receiver two position yep yeah i mean i think the uh the jags um are another one in that boat where it's like you could definitely see them hanging uh a nice number here uh i mean parker washington 33.4 he kind of falls in that tweener territory right that's probably like a 50 draft percentage um maybe a little higher yeah he's gonna get a little bit of a boost too because people are gonna sour on drake london a bit like drake london's probably been the biggest faller this week with the two and news with people falling out of love with the game environment when the projections came out and then with the cooper rush stuff right yeah but like man you want to talk about leaning into volatility i mean the the qj play on the jags is brian thomas right and he's not getting drafted at all yeah the jags are really interesting they're like you know uh you know florida chargers basically it's just like you have no idea who the so it it kind of leans me to wanting to do some uh some naked trevor lawrence instead uh and and just kind of like you know maybe it's parker washington but maybe it's not enough to be optimal maybe it's brian thomas but not enough to be optimal and yeah maybe it's just trevor lawrence kind of picking up where he left off and just kind of being like a fantasy point farmer and and and you don't need to stack it and you actually don't want to stack it because there's three wide receivers that can all get theirs and it's not enough to actually win you but trevor lawrence can win you something so uh him and herbert i kind of view similarly in that regard where i just like i just like don't even i don't even really care to stack them i i think that's a really intelligent way to go about it there's leverage in being the guy who stacks them or finding the one-off piece that goes for like 20 but like playing into like hey those offenses are so spread out i just know these quarterbacks are talented and i know those teams are most likely going to put up points like especially when you look at the chargers total it's like oh yeah let's just play him naked in our contest they're not the archetype of guys that you would normally think to play you would think to play the guys that i'm playing malik willis and and jayden daniels so maybe i got to be more open-minded to being like hey trevor lawrence could just be that guy i i really think that that's the move when you have offenses that are ambiguous like this you know like mike clay had like the every jags receiver projected for the same you know what i mean like you know like you don't you don't have to get that right you can just bet that trevor lawrence goes nuts and you don't have to bring anybody along yeah i am just looking at the etr projections and optimal rates and like the jags and the charger setup is like eerily similar um you know except lawrence's adp is much later than herbert's um he projects one point less um lad and parker project almost identical though lad's more expensive than parker pretty significantly qj does project better than btj 9.9 to 8.3 but i still think a fairly good comp there one interesting thing don't forget about jacoby myers who does project the save about uh as brian thomas i mean uh i know from doing this last year the amount of times that jacoby myers would pop as a viable scroll was maddening but uh he is always an inconvenient truth yeah well said there uh one thing i i mean just to put on my kevin roth hat for a second here that i haven't heard anybody talk about is there six dome games on the slate and most of them are the big total games that we want to play into and then there is a little bit of outlying weather with that jags game with that panthers game uh and then there's a little bit of us in the baseball streets calling it that hot rain of the south this time of year but you know might have a little bit of impact on ball but i'm just looking at those three outdoor games that might be i don't know maybe just keep your wind hurst up on sunday morning there with with jags panthers and steelers already flooding games for weather that won't impact anything at all we're so back we are so bad a little rain ain't gonna hurt nobody man uh yeah i'm already ready for that on cram it's like there's 16 mile per hour wind gusts in chicago i can't play luther burden um it what else let's get give the people some uh some other scrolls here uh that you guys are liking yeah let's do it let's do it position by position and and and let's rip and uh i'll kick things off on the quarterback position here uh that i was doing the jayden daniel stuff like i know it's a huge d-line o-line mismatch and i know larry tunsell uh being lost for the season is really tough for this team but like man jayden can run and jayden's done it a million times uh i i guess the eagle secondary is pretty good and their pass rush is pretty good but like let me just see what happens with jayden uh i talked about the malik willis one a little bit there and then yeah i'll let you guys kind of go from there yeah um for me like i said uh baker has been you know just playing that playing the bucks offense there and then uh doing doing shuck but i'm worried that I don't know how real it is. think it's real because we're seeing genti move but it's it's like is it is it even good you know to like like oh i have the i have the great sneaky idea to double stack tyler shuck and this game that everybody thinks is going to be like an absolute like uh freak fest so why would i you know like like i i can't tell if i'm getting if that's like sharp or dumb to to do the shuck doubles with um jawan and in a lobby but i can't help myself i just think that's like too fun uh and i gotta i gotta get some of that chalk game uh so i've been doing that and then uh kyler and and jetta's i've been i've been pairing as well yeah you want to flip the board take addison instead uh instead of jetta yeah it happens yeah i know i mean i haven't done just seeing how tight the projections are for the quarterbacks up at the top i mean i think you could i think you can make a strong case to build a really good set of lineups and just say i am only taking quarterbacks after trevor lawrenson on like i literally think you just build lawrence kyler baker shuck daniels willis jordan love jones like that pocket there and just be like i'm just gonna live here and i'm literally just going to sacrifice one point 1.5 two points on your quarterback and just come in at a fraction of the ownership on my entire set this week yeah i think that's a really good way if you're playing like the high-owned pieces the other way to do it is like you can just capitulate to the field and be like no one can match burrow lamar or insert quarterback who's getting drafted 100 frequencies ceiling and then you just pull the lever at the wide receiver position or the second running back position so yeah yeah yeah and like ceiling projection yeah obviously burrow hurts herber all here around 30 but again lawrence 28 kyler 27.8 um you know it's it's not as big of a gap as as you think from a projection standpoint no not at all um actually one thing i was looking at earlier just to bring up ceiling projection was the so we've hopped on it in the master class about like running back in the flex and stuff like that there are 13 running back ceiling projections on etr and half ppr scoring for our site before you get to j jetta ceiling projection like just to put it in perspective of like how important like two touchdowns ceiling from volume running backs is there's 13 running backs ahead and take before you get to tight end one trey mcbride there's 29 players so if you're building a portfolio around like hey i want to be the guy who wins wide receiver two with jetta or wins wide receiver one with jetta or you're building a portfolio around hey i want to win tight end one because i think it can separate you're probably doing yourself a pretty big disservice in terms of like winning the slate it's more of like a min cash line play yeah i'm looking at the screen that you're seeing there from gibbs all the way down to swift and the only three wide receivers you see in the top uh ceiling jamar chase is two almond raws like eight or nine and the lava is like 13 yeah that's wild yeah that is wild but yeah and that might just be easy's fat thumb but who knows well it's it's like can we just can we just marvel at the fact that we've so quickly gone from first it was just like figurehead leone uh then it became sushi and now it's literally just easy's fat thumb like the evolution of who gets credit for these projections and in the middle there in the middle there's dink at the dog bowl right there dink at the dog bowl for uh for uh gumby as well yep yes exactly um all right you want john you want to tab over to yeah sorry running backs yeah i got you getting excited talking about these scrolls i'm getting sweaty boys yeah we i mean we're gonna have a lot of ground to cover here um yeah as well we we can probably uh um skip 12 person and and do some do some drafts and then get some some pickums going for people but yeah what do you what are you seeing here on uh the scrolls yeah so i mean everybody and in their dog in the first couple segments of the show have been steaming up jets a little bit so i mean breeze has a very palatable adp if you want to play bears through swift makes a lot of sense all the injuries stuff with bucky like that that kind of all adds up to me honestly going beyond it gets a little gross but if you only get one running back in the in the backfield for the packers i think like why not just take a shot on lloyd or whatever um yeah i i i've kind of capped it at these three and a lot of genti as my rb2 was kind of my approach but um yeah there's definitely i was kind of into chuba just playing that game environment in a different way until we got the jonathan brooks is gonna play today so i might have lost my fastball here boys but uh my rb2 stuff is kind of capped at like about 14 this week it does look trickier to me just looking as at um you know once you come down like even in the the sweet spot range to me looking at projection and adp is swift breeze hall bucky uh that's like the the like the gold star range and then you can live with travis h and chuba in montgomery like you said i don't know if that's been updated with the brooks stuff but then like once you get into the lloyd pollard warren dowdle judkins like you're sacrificing a full like four to five points on other guys who are going to be similarly low-owned yeah it definitely it's it's it's hard to tell yourself that but i think you can tell yourself that just because it's week one uh it wouldn't surprise me at all if the jags just completely upset the the or the browns completely upset the jags this week coming off like their monster monster like turnover ratio last year like they ran so hot last year uh that like if if trevor lawrence like has a bad game turns the ball over you know tootin fumbles or something because he's not used to like having the workload and there's and the browns just win the turnover battle and then they just put the ball in judkins belly 30 times like and he has 102 i mean i i don't know i've scrolled the judkins like i think judkins is like a pretty interesting scroll if you play hey what if the jags get upset and like if they do if that does happen it's a judkins game like 100 it's a judkins game it's not super likely but it that that is like a pretty simple like if this then that and judkins is like one percent and i think that he's just one of those guys we talked about it during best ball season that like guys at his price don't have like the touch see that he does so i think that he's always like kind of like an interesting mix in for for me as a scroll that is him and then the the steelers guys is as deep as i've gotten uh i have plenty of lloyd bags in best ball so like i'm like i just think i'm just kind of like lloyded out right now i get it but i i think this vikings defense is uh it could be a bit of a tough task i don't know how many touches they actually want to give marshawn lloyd week one given the fact that he's never played in an nfl game before so i'm i'm on wait and see mode uh with lloyd but really like the steelers guys and then i will just say i agree with like the jets optimism i think the jets are better than the market thinks and by the market i mean vegas of course with the team with the implied team totals and the spreads and the look ahead lines but i am going to like make them prove it to me uh i i think that breeze hall's ownership in a 39 and a half total game where they're dogs is uh not the spot for me to like pay to find out if uh if the jets are underrated down to 38 and a half too now yuck and they're and they're dogs like yeah we want breeze hall in that matchup at 33 and a half adp i mean that's not that's not one percent bro that's like 50 percent right yeah um yeah i think yeah lloyd the steelers guys that you have in there judkins i can definitely see uh the steelers guys that you have in there judkins i can definitely see uh the steelers guys uh the path from those guys from there it's getting getting a little little shaky um i think in in other if we weren't coming off a season of fud uh or i should say the past few weeks of fud on the washington offensive line i think bill would be a pretty intriguing scroll of just saying like can this guy rip off some big plays but you're you're probably getting too dicey there with rashad's role in question as well it seems like the market is really into the uh the eagles defense so i am i am like terrified of finding out about bill uh this yeah so i'll i won't be there they could be like be what john oh just like the second best defense in the uh nfc yeah uh let's look at some wide receiver scrolls here um you know we talked can i just say yeah one more that i was just like watching is like the impact of uh keaton mitchell in like the passing of the passing game roll like if he's not cleared to go like that hampton projection gets a nice little boost i'm just putting it out there it's already very good and it's already good yeah exactly but like the biggest thing we're worried about hampton is like workload stuff and if all of a sudden you remove like the missile from the equation and they have the highest implied team total on the slate and he's getting all the goal line work it's like dude they're huge favorites against maybe the worst team in football like he might just he might just break the slate for sure yeah um All right, wide receiver strike. scrolls here i mean this segment could be an hour on its own just the the different ways you can go i mean igbuka christian watson metcalf qj you mentioned london sliding i mean tara mclaurin is free like this is a guy we used to take at pick 14 every slate with jayden because they could break the slate on you know two two passes so uh it's pretty right for the picking what do you guys like yeah i um i'm like kind of concentrated at wide receiver which is a little scary uh just kind of like going around these alphas and then scrolling at running back uh my favorite scroll though uh we don't even have him on the screen here maybe i think he still counts i i think uh tetero mcmillan um i think qualifies as he's at 31 that's not i guess that's not quite as deep for for the um for the segment but i i think that he's going down to like outscore almost everybody ahead of him uh in this one the the bears defense by all accounts is just like not good and the the the spread and total in this game i think would shock people the the bears are only like three and a half point favorites here um in a 46 and a half point total so this isn't going to be a route i think everybody has this idea that the panthers stink in their head and unfortunately i don't think they're going to be able to do that because unfortunately that's just like not the case they're not as bad as people think and and mcmillan is so freaking good man he's so good like he yeah coker can get his but mcmillan has a chance to be an absolute alpha in this game and if the bears are putting up points like ben johnson wants to put up points then it's just going to be t-mac all freaking day in this spot so i think that he like i'm giving him a boost in in my projections because i think that he can just like go crazy in this spot yeah you'd have kind of talked about it a little bit that that game like basically he didn't say it but like that game could basically be what everybody's drafting like baltimore indie right now and i mean i'm i think i think detroit and in new orleans is up here i think the the bangles and bucks is right here and then i think there's this clump of the chargers game the colts game and the carolina game and the carolina game is the one getting quote unquote the most disrespected outside of just loveland and some percentage of caleb going every single time um but yeah that that's the one where like the least amount of pieces are getting drafted and could easily go band for band with all those other games that have very similar totals yeah exactly yeah it is it is fun i always like to jam does a good job of you know thinking through like the bear stuff of like them it really does come down can bryce young hang right because they're gonna have to to get pushed so then you almost like you know switch to the other side where it's like you play a loveland you play a swift and then you play like the garbage time pants on fire uh and again in the brs you probably don't need to get to bryce but playing it through teta roya uh is probably a really good way to do so i saw biden for take bryce this morning in one of our drafts so yeah hell yeah you've been scrolling down there hell yeah yeah hat tip yeah the other scroll that i was looking for was the one that i was looking for was the one that i was looking for was the one that i was looking for here um oh my gosh dude i'm sorry i i just blanked out uh i'll get back to it oh my gosh i was i had about to go off oh dk metcalf sorry i'm back okay dk metcalf uh this is shout out to mike nuggets shout out to uh to them they there's quotes from aaron rogers talking about uh camp and guys that have had good camp and he's basically like michael pitman he's i wouldn't even know him to recognize him uh like if i if i saw him like i wouldn't know who he was uh and so he's very complimentary of dk metcalf uh in camp and he has that connection dating back to last season so i think there's just a chance that metcalf starts off with this like ridiculous target share and actually can like have a very very strong game here until the entire offense gels a little bit more uh just like leaning on what uh what he knows who which is dk metcalf uh and pitman just kind of like baking in a slower start for him i think we can actually project a lot of targets uh or like a large percentage of the targets to dk metcalf and uh and that's obviously i think good for his ceiling a nice thing about dk in a vacuum is you don't need a lot of targets either like he could just be like four for 108 and a touchdown like you know what i mean like he just he takes the top off he could do it in a big way like if this game is a slog like everybody thinks it is and looks like atlanta can't hold serve on the one side and it just squeezed the air out of the football like tons of slow clock turning like dk can still get home in games like that because he's proven he's been able to and like you have the hall of fame's greatest deep ball thrower in the history of football like just hitting them for one big one like you look up on red zone and he's got a 65 yard touchdown wouldn't shock anybody all right should we look at uh some tight end scrolls here yeah cool i i added out pierce to the list here yeah he's he's cleared to play i did one uh double danny dimes thing this morning um don't triple stamp your double stamps in the big br but hey it's okay once in a while to do like a dimes taylor and uh out here's team oh yeah there you go um yeah so the the big steam job right now coming over from the redacted side is michael mayer and everybody just treating him like he's brought to the table and he's like i'm gonna do this i'm gonna do this brock bowers but at a discount right now and i don't know if that's right or not i was an advocate of taking him like in the last round in the um uh best ball season there but like i don't know man i know we're scared about quarterback play but i think hale fallon fannon's a more talented player uh i think dalton kincaid's a more talented player uh those were the two that i've been gravitating to at the back end i'm doing a lot of mayor just because he's tight end eight and uh i i don't know that the ownership will catch up uh in in this spot so he's been like one of my uh preferred scrolls here but you mentioned fannon and yeah i've been doing fannon as well just like you know as far as a guy uh that has the ability to you know kind of lead the position and targets you know maybe not with mcbride but he's up there in terms of like you know guys that can have the most targets on this slate uh especially if they are going to play from behind like we tend to think yeah fannon is like a really awesome scroll tight end 11 uh he's a total afterthought in these and and yeah i think yeah but when you are comparing his adp to michael mayor michael mayor being so close to the top six uh and kind of being like the flavor of the week and the easy flow chart with bowers out yeah i think that actually makes fannon like the better pick when you all those things considered but i have a fair share of michael mayor yeah yeah and uh i think goddard fannon look good it's funny to have goddard andrews and kincaid all in in low ownership territory um the quarterback prices are pretty cheap this week like normally i think the the stacking with some of those russian quarterbacks in in their tight ends can get tricky because of the opportunity cost but i think you could argue with how cheap the quarterbacks are and how cheap the tight ends are that it kind of actually makes me want to do more uh lamar with andrews alan with kincaid stuff yeah i agree with you man i've done a sixth fifth and sixth round i mean like yeah i get it but like they still have a pretty high implied team total and uh there's a pretty high game total there like i'm not that scared of that defense like i don't know look at what the niners just did to the rams defense last night that we were so scared of right like yeah yeah uh i'm not people are talking about malik davis is that way yeah oh just the chat's been hitting on it so just to uh we they say he suffered a pretty serious hip injury that could keep him out for some period of time so uh cowboys in need of a backup running back pretty badly if you got like jayden blue or cotto could bring some juice to the room i think it really is a guy like him yeah amari de mercato and film off a season no yeah what were you gonna say john that was probably more interesting than malik davis i wasn't gonna ask you guys uh like i think if you get no roam or you get limited roam and you're just looking at the game environment and like arizona new coaching staff like maybe they don't want to um air it out like a million fucking times again and just play catch-up ball with 40 attempts maybe they rely a little bit more on alishir and love like their off-field or sorry off-season acquisitions like i think there's a low-key case to be made that loveland should be tight end one on the slate um but maybe i'm just you know pattern matching a little too hard or assumption of rational coaching i don't know no i don't i don't think it's i don't think it's crazy i i'll push back i i just don't think that loveland has the volume like he hasn't he like loveland ran like pretty hot last year whenever he did go off and i think we all just kind of like have the uh the recency memory of like him looking great in the in the playoffs but you know warren warren had a much higher target share than him uh mcbride i think there's a chasm i think between mcbride and and in the field just in terms of like his ability to to separate from a ceiling stand standpoint uh that doesn't necessarily mean you have to get overweight mcbride i'm just saying uh in front at the long view but i think warren um and in loveland are basically a toss-up loveland i think has his appeal because of the adunze being banged up and it does seem like adunze is going to play but if he doesn't then then yeah then you're gonna you're gonna you're gonna see loveland uh steam up big time especially you know how healthy is luther burden he's practicing in full but will he be limited at all is a question i i really like tyler warren here uh this game i think sneaky shootout potential here uh and warren i think could could easily just like have a 20-point game here um i'm i would take warren over loveland okay cool let me i yeah i agree i i agree with you i was just kind of doing it for like like talking sake but like i just kind of wanted to make the case for when like if rome's not there pete let me share i just can't do it because i'm bouncing browsers because of the solver okay this is like arbitrary deadline and line stuff but it like coincides with the injuries and stuff of last year and then pushing in to the postseason so all of last year if you just include the postseason whatever like trey mcbride utilization score by far the best you got to scroll all the way down to tight end 11 to find loveland but then when you look at when the injuries took place and you go from week 12 like you could see it progressively from week 12 onward that like even when they were in these trailing scripts and like airing it out like crazy we see like 96 to 93 and then you incrementally go by week 99 99 93 then all of a sudden loveland starts creeping up 96 then we get to like those postseason weeks 99 and trey mcbride like oh now loveland's jumping on 196 like you know what i mean like we saw that trajectory at the end of the season so if we get no rome like there's i still think like there's the potential for like 10 targets yeah yeah like if this if that role holds serve then then yeah he's a smash it's just like that's like a four game sample you know like before then he didn't have a game over nine targets and yeah he was banged up to start the year but you know that bangles game he had like a breakaway touchdown that was like a four game sample and then he was like oh yeah he was banged up to start the year but i think kind of like inflating his season-long stat line you know the 27 point game he had against like that was kind of a fluke touchdown that he had uh and overall it's just like yeah we don't have to spend too much time on loveland man but yeah he's he's totally fine i just um i'm waiting and seeing yeah i was just patterned matching with like the late season breakout and then like the pattern matching of like rome being out so that week 14 through week 18 is when rome missed and then that's when you see like the loveland turn in from like the like this 59 65 guy to like 83 82 91 part of the offense now and we might be in that situation if rome's not there it's just kind of what i'm what i'm like throwing out there sure um just because i'm in the other browser for a second just to reset i was looking at last year's winner here just to see what you guys saw it's shout out to spike but this six percent one percent you know 25 percent igbuka like who could be that 25 percent igbuka guy this year like the guy that we're you know not 100 sure has which role yet but breaks the slate in week one so just kind of cool yeah man that that takes me back the the dimes to to rushing touchdown igbuka uh explosion there um yeah looking at the tight end i will say this like if you want to look what i would say is the trap play uh would be joan johnson um tight in five gonna carry heavy ownership much more of a full ppr play lower implied team total than you probably want like you really are you need the touchdown for him to pay that off um whereas like even mcbride could get to 14 or 15 without a touchdown um that's probably the the play to scroll past yep not i'm not saying like zero percent but just like holistically that's kind of the the spot we generally try to avoid and people are watching content for like the entirety of the weekend are just going to hear over and over again about joan just because they're going to be stone cold chalk on both the redacteds yeah um all right uh let's should we should we draft oh yeah let's get you in here and let's yeah nez what is your heart out in a half hour uh yes all right john tell the people what we're drafting we're going main br first we got three more spots all right condensing my slows thanks to the solver your your slows i only got a couple left right now oh shut up the fully loaded man actually oh i saw that yeah i took down the ptp first ptp some things never fucking change huh too good too good yeah dude i i wasn't anywhere close i can't believe i didn't have like anything near that i was like 15 points behind first and i had a a whole bunch of lineups in there i mean i i didn't didn't do too bad but um and i didn't do too bad i mean i didn't lose too much money but uh yeah i i was like nowhere near near first though so shout out to our guy fully loaded uh had a blast with him in austin uh so love to see it in true john fashion my best lineup that was like right there has a big old fat elijah arroyo zero for four percent on the line should arrive at tight end i mean hunter henry's in the winning lineup with four points it barely mattered you know right but it did dude that was uh on uh what was it wednesday night uh after the raritan td and uh almost best i was like i'll uh i'll bring my phone into to my bedroom for the first time in ages and i'll put it on uh do not disturb unless nez or davis call me and tell me that arroyo scored a touchdown to complete that pick them that we built uh because i i didn't i didn't have it isolated anywhere the arroyo i know i couldn't believe that uh when i saw that i was like are you guys kidding you guys want bijan almond raw or somebody off the board i'm not i'm not feeling bijan almond raw all right cool let's do it i mean yeah like where where where do you where would you guys have him in your your personal ranks right now uh probably behind jt and derrick henry like in that little clump yeah let's see etr has him four behind gibbs chase and almond raw but yeah i think you could definitely make the case i mean he's point one points ahead of jt about a point ahead of henry i mean we've seen cooper rush play a little bit of decent ball in the past and he brings a little element of like might might pull the ball out of his belly and run a little option stuff so that sets up well for bijan but i mean the the thesis of the play is all the checkdowns and all the all the world in a trailing script for boat as well with rush as it would with two in my opinion yeah i just i'm not getting excited about checkdowns like i want touchdowns i want the big plays it just seemed like it's gonna be harder to come by now yeah i mean he's one of those guys who can just break off 75 to the house on a moment's notice but it's a it's it's a little bit harder when you just stack eight in the box against cooper rush uh we get a little bit of a gm gm here to stack up this game environment if we want it um yeah uh i do this so often i think it's i think it's fun we're gonna have to scroll because it's gonna be it's gonna be a popular combo but yeah i'm i i have such a hard time getting away from this uh just like the two these two separate so much i think from from the field wait is it a g is it a gm gm or is it not it's it's at adp yeah why did you say gm john it's a little bit i haven't been getting much of it it was early in the week it was easy now it's like getting harder people are taking all alave because of the etr projection at like six seven here okay yeah gotcha yeah i had like 40 percent alave at one point oh i think it's down to 30. yeah we got friends and family in this one be smurf cards fully loaded magic car shit yeah so we're gonna we're gonna okay pete oh no john was saying something i was just gonna say something done i had a home league draft last night while we were watching the thursday night game but you could input the scores from the previous night so i took like raritan in my tight end slot to just lock in like eight points gotta lock in eight points so yeah i'm not i'm not really into chase brown okay you should probably click the rb button so i i i'm like genti first i mean what do you guys like why why just said yeah i'm good with that why why are you out on chase brown uh just like the the just like the the narrative of running backs against tampa uh and him being like 100 drafted and so high in adp i don't think that he necessarily has like the ceiling over uh guys that go below him so he's just like a chalk that i've identified that i'm that i'm passing on if you if you look at the master class you'll see a big a big red uh conditional formatting on the heat map of guys like like chase yeah yeah i think the only thing is just for this week just that game environment in his expected role are just so nice um but i guess what his draft person obviously his is going to be 100 i mean genti with the late steam where do you think he is like 60 to 70 not way higher i think way higher than that even yeah probably like 80 okay that's what that would be my guess all right how are we gonna get uh different with this one boys a bunch of the tight ends are gone now we could scroll for another running back we could do naked lamar um let's go let's go let's go good a running back scroll on this one sure bucky i like maybe yeah bucky bucky was like that one stands out big time okay do you like playing pieces of that game environment without other pieces of the game environment i think it's okay yeah yeah i think for sure doesn't really bother me well and especially with the running back right i mean bucky can easily it's again it's a touchdown uh play it's a big play kind of move and you're just hoping that he kind of you know because you if he has two touchdowns and they're both rushing then baker's probably not getting home wide receivers are probably just okay plays um i think you can definitely play it just through bucky all right people forget bengals notoriously slow starters as well guys yes good narrative they only play like one series in the post in the preseason every year it is wild i mean it's at it seems like a lot of these teams are gonna show up in the preseason with hangovers tomorrow if uh the first two games are any indication for sure especially the ones with new coaching staffs and stuff because like new installs for offense like even though it was the longest training camp ever like it just takes a bit longer i was laughing because someone in the chat earlier was like ben johnson with extra time to prepare i was like sean mcveigh had nine months to prepare for that game last night and it didn't seem to help him out uh at all i think he's all of it his prep like the flight they just he just did it 24 hours ahead yeah um so you can do the josh allen kincaid thing you can do naked caleb naked herbert we can scroll for a stacking partner we can do baker with bucky what do you like uh naked lawrence or naked herbert i think we we play that we talked about that one yeah do uh yeah either of those are fun all right let's see the lawrence scroll yeah yeah just really fun ways to get to get further off the board with that that chalk amenra alave pairing and you know and i do think a lot of guys that are doing amanra and alave are probably doing a lot of genti as well because of the projections kind of like guiding you there so um yeah i think i think the naked trevor lawrence is a nice is a nice way to kind of separate ourselves yeah i think a lot of people that have this start will do like the alave juan jenny uh plus shot right like that's yeah or or or the laporta double as well with uh with golf see see that quite a bit or just single stack golf as well um yeah it's really easy to stack that game a little cheeky cj strout one i like this back stacking buka stuff i like this terry mcclure and justin our guy in the chat talking about that one we were talking about it a little bit earlier about jayden daniels and then we get a free scroll at tight end um who do you guys like oh let me uh let's do let's do fan and play that correlation like lauren's opposite fan and get the double scroll but within the same game awesome yeah solver's actually recommending it second as well so that's pretty cool oh nice okay perfect you'll get like a little bit of correlation there yeah yeah there we go trevor lawrence ashton genti bucky irving amanra saint brown chris alave and harold fan and not even like that crazy but just the the the players that you scroll to are like four of them after that chalk to start and like nobody here is coming in at like one percent ownership but it's like pretty smart to like the etr like dfs show if you guys listen to that one with uh dink and sam and leonie they were talking about like the era of dfs where you're looking for the one percent own play doesn't exist anymore because the field's so sharp you're looking for those five percent ones that can like add up like the equivalent of that in our game is like we're looking for two guys at to differentiate we're not looking for like one guy at one percent right yeah and i think on that correlation thing like to me uh that's just like a bonus right where it's like we already identified fanon as being in that pocket of good scroll and really the only fear is where you'd get yourself in trouble is you just wouldn't want every one of your trevor lawrence teams paired with fan right like that's where you get in trouble where you're like i'm so overconfident in the correlation um but yeah i uh like if you were if you were to do let's say 10 trevor lawrence naked lineups or whatever um you know i know from looking at the nerdy sims like previous years like generally there would be a bring back on that like 20 or 30 percent of the time so you'd have you know parker washington in there a fan in um and and probably call it a day yeah uh all right chris g flexing his youtube membership here uh for 52 months look at you g he says zay flowers eruption week uh i could certainly see it i think the interesting thing is i almost like zay flowers one off then then stacked up with lamar i assume he's going to be very popular with lamar and we've also seen like the lamar nukes um are generally very running focus so that'd be my only thought uh on that yeah jm to win had a pretty good stat about that did he not like talking about like yeah the the negative correlation of those two so yeah it and it makes sense too right because zay has had like a concerningly low td rate and so it makes sense that even when he's hitting like it's probably more uh yards after catch it's not touchdown driven which isn't going to flow into being really positively correlated with lamar um in the way like stafford and davante last year were so heavily correlated yeah um so we got 20 minutes here uh do you guys want to you want to spice it up no you want to keep drafting dealer's choice i i think we got to get at least a core in today um some of the spicy plays i'm not sure how spicy i'm feeling but you know you know i'll find something along the way here all right well then it's time pick them spicy marg spicy marg radioactive spice let's spice it up slop it up slop it up i mean this live this permission to slide your honor that's a 65x that makes me feel all right um let's see i'm gonna i'm gonna have to really uh think about this this core pick of mine because i had not given this uh a ton of thought but i'm gonna have to have you pull up some stuff for me as well we can yeah we can work through this we can touch and go do this on the on the fly for you i think that's more than more than acceptable a spot to start nez i do yeah so you can you know look around for p while i do this john if you need to but my my my core play would be targets for uh tetero mcmillan that's currently at seven and a half uh for a even multiplier uh just as we talked about with this game uh an underrated shootout potential here uh tmax really really good and i think there's a chance that they are you know throwing the ball a good bit and i think t-mac can easily find himself uh with eight targets i think this is like by far my favorite play love it pretty fun pretty fun um i got an absolute dumpster fire one that i was liking nothing better than a dumpster fire play for the core fire for the core baby dumpster fire for the core hey man we we were all over it last night uh with the exception of uh big jake degrom there so i'm trusting my gut yet again what do you guys think about a little expanded route tree for my guy devon valet receptions three and a half i'll take a look at it three and a half what's the do you like the receptions more doesn't he have like a decent a dot what's his receiving yards uh 39 and a half i kind of like maybe the yards better but i i'm i'm in on the the valet thought that's the preference uh let's do let's do yards all right give ourselves a little bit of an out on uh on a on a big one what are the Pablo yeah yeah let me just let me look at a couple here what what is the qj stuff uh in the lobby um quinn johnson we got three and a half receptions forty three and a half yards and what is that longest reception there is that twenty twenty yeah okay you know qj is a fun one but probably more of a slide and less of a uh core let me see the loveland stuff oh no talk dirty to me olsen loveland four and a half on the receptions they're a little bit of a dock um 51 and a half on the receiving yards uh 1.4 x on the teddy let's play a little you know it is the core but let's play a little correlation here i think i think i like the receptions i think he's he's gonna be the focal point of the offense here uh let's lock that in opposite of t-mac let's do it i was gonna try and use some boosts but they've caught on to uh how sharp we are with the core so numi is shook in his little boots there 25 gets you almost 150 it's basically a 5.8 x or there drop it in the chat and of course i would never make the mistake as to not put it immediately into the private chat thereafter no one no one's better hosting you john there you go uh now yeah end of an era of me forgetting to put it into the uh you had a good run oh i i actually i actually need you to now copy paste it and put it in the chat because i can't yeah it's just like oh my god good clean fun there you go uh yeah what people say in loveland targets too what what was that at just out of curiosity i believe it was six and a half um okay let's see yeah i could definitely use that again yeah similar slightly better multiplier than the receptions but six and a half on the loveland targets i wonder if you could use that again yeah similar slightly better multiplier than the if there's Rome numbers up I didn't see them earlier yeah we got Rome numbers up right now so interesting I haven't seen a practice report from today just yet let me see if I can track something down but uh yeah where do you guys want to go next because I kind of got an idea for the spice that I think everybody's going to be or for the slide that I think everybody's going to be in love with okay let's hear it yeah almost intended no uh we got we're gonna go with Nez's guy Waymo and we're gonna go with Pete's guy QJ and we're gonna we're gonna go moon shooting on the yards for both of them okay okay let's hear it yeah so we'll slide up the Jameson Williams I mean JMO is a as a fixture I mean it's called spicy margs for Kyle Pitts and yet you know JMO is now the spiritual successor I would say of you know JMO is now the spiritual successor I would say of about 34 and a half those two together get us 12.7 0.37 yeah you know you want a little you want a little extra juice in there ideally you know just to make it move but we're getting there yeah who who can we who can we throw in this we need we need una moss who is gonna be a down feel you look at the terry stuff that seemed like too suppressed from what i was seeing okay at least in the underdog or in the battle royale streets so much secondary respect for uh philadelphia 34 and a half gets you 4.25 x is a 50 x or now 56 oh wow okay yeah all right all right all right i hear you there you go now now we're getting somewhere now we're spicy you you let's go okay cool alan's in the private chat all right so higher for golden pierce and terry mccorn on longest receptions 29 and a half 34 and a half 34 and a half all right here comes the uh the link here i've dropped all of these in the chat like i said i will round these up in the uh the show notes as well devonta smith deep ball with first game without aj brown's kind of cool too that one's a good call in the chat um this is how you know we're winding down because we're getting suggestions for darren waller and odell beckham is that amac i mean uh yeah you got the beam on me um london touchdown from jacob all right oh addison would have been the other big play guy oh yeah yeah that was the that was the one we needed and jasta's got trey tucker as well yeah not not a bad one but can kirk cousins even throw the ball more that's that's the question that's true uh i like addison what's what's that's like his whole that's the whole thing right uh yeah you take him to 29 and a half yes took him to 34 and a half okay force my hand a lot of two touchdown shouts in the chat like two touchdowns is a fun one and hampton like henry gibbs and hampton is a 50 xer i did like the rico 2td uh shout rico and addison yeah there's like the menu is just so big this week and every like we're coming off of best ball brain which is just like pure optimism for every player um right he looks so big right now and it won't look big next week yeah when like when like seven of these games go under their totals and we go what the hell happened in the game i love yeah we're sitting there sitting there watching the early games and it's like 14 10 at half or whatever in the in the fourth yeah um what we have a g for gumby touting malachi fields the longest reception just classic g-man homerism yeah beautiful um nez you're you're taking off for uh for new orleans yeah thank you for reminding me i'm over here like trying to like create one more banger for you guys which i did i will share it with you uh i did i put a rushing qb or not a rushing qb but qb uh rushing touchdown one together uh i'll put it in the private chat but this is uh just for the audio listeners malik willis rushing touchdown rushing we're receiving uh get some outs there daniel jones and then justin herbert so that's 100x not that crazy it's really not that it really isn't that crazy when you think about it nez trying to get in all of his action right now gotta zero out the balance as though i'll never return to the state of texas but uh yeah thanks uh thanks for the the well wishes and uh good luck this weekend you guys uh yeah i'll let are you guys still gonna go before i like say my goodbyes no no i'll i'll i'll wrap it up here okay uh as well um let first of all i know we had a lot of people hanging out from watching the previous shows john and nez let them know um about the badge bros the youtube membies the regular content that they can expect from you guys over on your channel yeah uh anything that is daily game specific on underdog we are drafting it and then a little bit of best ball so we'll have some best puck coming up we'll have some uh double dribble stuff coming up soon and then we got a whole bunch of football stuff uh going forward i think we're going to have a primetime paloozas mainly paywalled and then i think we're going to do one preview show for the main br early in the week and then we'll cap the week off with off and on the clock here every damn week so yeah a lot of fun football stuff coming your way and then as soon as basketball starts ramping up uh we'll be covering that uh but yeah i think we're going to do a lot more uh paywall content uh this season or like you know do one sport and then push into the paywall uh yeah so if you guys want to check it out at the badge bros on the youtubes there like subscribe follow and memberships are uh very very expensive that's why pete bought 50 of them uh the other day uh no it's because it's uh it's too cheap it's too cheap the bang for your buck on all of the free shows is too good i just dropped the uh the off and on the clock pickums in the badge bros channel uh in the deposit kingdom discord as well that's a great place if you want to join us talk underdog daily games all of that good stuff as far as uh for me uh tomorrow night i will have dfs after dark i think i'm just going to roll solo build some lineups talk some ball and then sunday am we'll have the cram that is for youtube members as well we'll get all the overnight news uh build lineups look at ownership percentages and then we'll react to inactives when those come in at 11 30 a.m eastern and then we'll have the ship cast back this year we are moving it up uh we did it 4 p.m eastern the late window last year we're uh we won't have you know the finality of the slate to to sweat but we'll have more games and hopefully uh uh you know more more to tilt there in the early window i'm also going to have in my newsletter tomorrow a couple things more talking about the underdog stuff it's obviously been a lot this week i feel like i've hit on most of the stuff like throughout various shows but kind of putting that all in one place and then i also will have like the full schedule because i know it was a little tricky this week with all the different changes including a new thursday block that i'm going to be doing uh so i'll have details from that in tomorrow's po box newsletter but uh yeah look forward to this dfs friday block every friday going forward jam to win you to cow leonie badge bros uh i i challenge anyone to come up with a better uh friday dfs block of shows than that uh looking forward to the season good luck everyone i'm sure i'll see a bunch of you over the weekend and i'll see you next week weekend otherwise monday's portfolio we will recap it all and we'll see you guys on top of the leaderboards peace