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Week 1 College Football Preview: Notable Trends, CFP Debates, MUST-WATCH Games & More!

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Week 1 College Football Preview: Notable Trends, CFP Debates, MUST-WATCH Games & More!

The Cover 3 podcast delivers an in-depth analysis of college football Week One matchups, focusing on emerging trends and key storylines. A central theme is the unpredictability of preseason predictions, as teams like North Carolina and NC State defy expectations, demonstrating that off-season beliefs are often proven wrong by actual game results. The discussion highlights the trend of slower-paced offenses adjusting to new defensive strategies, supported by data showing that Week One teams without tape have a 58% chance of covering spreads. The Oregon vs. Boise State game is presented as a dominant matchup, with Oregon’s superior defensive line and experience giving them a massive edge, while Boise’s weak offensive line and lack of top-tier talent raise concerns. The podcast also analyzes other high-profile games, including Ohio State’s massive win over Ball State, Indiana's expected demolition of North Texas, and the Miami vs. Stanford matchup, where player development and depth are emphasized. Additionally, the show explores the college football playoff scenario where a 11–1 Virginia team loses to Miami and a 9–3 Oklahoma team wins in a non-conference game—raising questions about strength of schedule and conference advantages. Ultimately, the podcast underscores the importance of evaluating performance beyond rankings, emphasizing how teams with better resumes and real-game experience tend to outperform expectations, and how underdogs with fresh talent and lack of tape can still challenge favorites in high-stakes matchups.

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(upbeat music) - And welcome back to the Cover 3 podcast. Here on CBS Sports, that's Tom Frennelly, that's Bud Elliott, that's Danny Cannell, I'm Chip Patterson coming to you live at youtube.com/cover3 and everywhere you get your podcasts on demand, including CBS Sports Network, that's right. Cover 3 podcast is here to get you set for a locked and loaded week one that is full of matchups that we have been breaking down on the Cover 3 podcast. And today, an in-depth look at the first big time game of the 2026 season as the Oregon Ducks, top two Oregon Ducks play host at home to Boise State, one of the newest members of the pack 12. So lots more to get into, but I wanted to start with a little bit of trend setting. Yes, we are actually the most on trend college football podcast in the globe, you know, like no one is more trendy than us. Danny, what trends are you watching in college football? - My favorite thing, and I thought we saw this, you know, there's a bunch of group think that takes place in the off season. We all think certain teams are gonna be good and we all think certain teams are gonna be bad. And I thought the biggest surprise out there was North Carolina getting a big win over TCU. Like a Memphis, the win over UNLV, they were an underdog and I, you know, I don't know where everybody picked where their mind was, but I think the trend of us all off season thinking we know everything and then seeing that come collapsing down as we realize every single year. Maybe we were a little bit off on certain programs. I absolutely love that trend. Even if we're on the wrong end of it at times, NC State, I thought NC State had a chance to pull up. They get waxed, all of a sudden it's like, Virginia looks like a playoff team. So I like the trends of everybody, what we think is right, we find out, oh, maybe we were wrong all off season, but these teams give us a chance to prove them otherwise. - Always a good opportunity for us to test our priors when you're looking at the transfer portal movements that are gonna be able to create all kinds of different expectations for the upcoming season. But what do you have your eyes on in terms of trends to watch entering a week one? - Yeah, Chip, I'm looking at tempo. Right, last year, we heard a lot of coaches talk about how Indiana really wouldn't break the huddle until the new helmet comms for the defense were turned off. So that they were not really showing their formation, they were not really giving any hints to the defense as to what they might do. I'm curious, like for some of these teams last year, that were in the middle of the tempo. Like not your super no-huddle teams, not your teams already went slow, but are those teams that were sort of in the middle? Maybe they go to the line and make some adjustments to what not. Are they gonna stay in the huddle for a little longer? Are they gonna go from this many seconds to crank it down a little more because they see what Indiana did? So I'm closely watching and so are people in the betting markets by the way. So under this week have been bet at a three-to-one ratio as far as the big moves on the Vegas line to the ratio of overs. - You know who else is watching that? Who else is watching that is the slower team skill of the more chance they could put ads in between plays. So I think that is also something to be watching for going forward. - Todd, what do you have your eyes on? - First of all, Danny, I have never been wrong about anything in the preseason. I think everything I say over the summer always proves to be correct once the game start playing. So that's, your trend is not really a trend, I believe. And a trend I'm gonna point to you, like there's been a lot of talk coming into week one here that especially compared to recent seasons, it is not the most appealing as far as big time matchups. Like if you think back the last year, we had Texas versus Ohio State in the first week of the season, which was a one versus a two matchup, which is just rare as it always is. So you never really saw that before. But now I think it kind of set a tone to where people are like, well, isn't that supposed to be how it works every season? It's not that way of the season. There aren't a ton of matchups between teams that are both ranked, which is interesting because I have noticed over the last few years, week one games where the teams are both ranked, the favorite in that game has only gone two and six. And I don't meet against the spread. I mean, they have only one, two of the eight games that have come in. So you know what, actually, Danny, maybe you're right. Maybe we don't know anything that we're talking about in the pre-season, going into the regular season. But the only two teams to have won were Ohio State last year in that meeting with Texas. And in 2024, when Georgia beat Clemson by like a billion. So when you're looking at those matchups this weekend and you're seeing certain teams that are favored over the other ones, maybe you should sit there and wonder, should that team be favored? Should they be favored by that much? I don't know. A recent history suggests, no, they shouldn't be. All right, quick follow on that. I want to hear from Danny. I want to hear from Bud Danny. The only AP ranked on ranked matchup we've got is going to be on Sunday as Louisville plays Ole Miss in Nashville. Do you think that that bucks more to the trend of Ohio State and Georgia where Ole Miss is actually living up as the favorite or are you going to pull out some trendy upset alerts for what Jeff Brom and the cards could do. But I want to hear from you two next. I absolutely think that is a right spot for potentially an upset. I mean, have you guys heard about the week three game versus Ole Miss and LSU? Trenna, I'd tell you this is the best quarterback in the country. Like just give him the heisman already. Why do they even have to show up to Nashville for this game? Meanwhile, Louisville's got a bunch of question marks. Who's this QB Lincoln keyhole, Tuzzi, is he any good? Jeff Brom is one of the best play callers out there. I think that is a right spot. They've also had a ton of success recently against some of the more physical teams that they got against, think Clemson, think Miami, some of the bigger, you know, body teams in the ACC. They have gone toe-to-toe with them. I do not think they will be intimidated. They're not reading all the Ole Miss press clippings. I think they are in a pretty sweet spot for a potential upset. Yeah, Chiba, I think it's certainly possible, right? Everybody's kind of pointing ahead as Danny said to that week in week three matchup against LSU, but like looking at this, Jeff Brom's never really had a truly mobile quarterback that I can recall. And now he has one, Lincoln keyhole. It's like a really good athlete. Now I'm very curious to see just how Ole Miss reacts to Louisville utilizing his legs. I think both these defenses are kind of underrated too, especially when it comes to past rush. Underdogs winning outright. Underdogs in those ranked on ranked games in week one. Ooh, a lot of trends there might be going the cards way. Watch out Pete Golding. Mines does not apply to Ole Miss or Louisville, but it does, in this case, apply to the likes of USC, Memphis, UNLV, Stanford, and yes, even Florida State. Because in the rest versus rust debate, there is a thought that teams that go out in week zero and get a chance to play, get a chance to learn about themselves, that they might have an advantage over week one. But the data does not back that up whatsoever. In fact, what we've come to learn is that perhaps playing in week zero might put you at a disadvantage if your week one opponent hasn't played yet. Because what have you done? Well, you've gone and put a whole bunch of scrimmage snaps on tape. And what has the week one team not done? Put anything on tape. And the element of surprise over the last 10 seasons has actually bore out not just in the wins and losses, but even in covering the spread. Because there have been 265 games over the last 10 seasons where a week zero team is playing their second game against a week one team playing their first. And the teams in week one, the fresh teams with no tape are covering at a 58% rate. Not just wins, covering the spread at a 58% rate last year. That was Hawaii. They play in week zero. And then Arizona puts the clamps on them. Forty to six, absolutely dog walks them. UNLV puts some stuff on tape. And it was maybe one of the best games Sam Houston played all the agum year. 'Cause they had that advantage. And then Kansas, yes, they won against FCS Wagner in week one. But they didn't even cover that FCS spread along the way. So look at these following scenarios. USC played in week zero, taking on Fresno State. Memphis and UNLV are both in action. Memphis against Arkansas State, UNLV against Hawaii. Stanford is hosting Miami and Stanford already put out some pretty good Davis warrant tape. That is going to be advantage Miami. And then Florida State's Seminoles are going up against SMU and Florida State has put some things on tape varying degrees of how we grade that tape. But I got to give a point to the passer to you on this one. You mentioned this offhandedly on the cover three podcasts. Now that the data has been presented, does it line up with the anecdotal evidence that led you in that direction? - Yeah, Chip, because if you think about it, right, like, you'll hear these coaches say, "Oh, this is very correctable stuff, blah, blah, blah." It was also correctable in all of your offseason workouts. It was also correctable in spring football, right? It was also correctable in all the player-led practices over the summer. And in the two scrimmages that you had in fall camp and in your 15-20 practices or whatever you had in fall camp. So if you're still making these type of errors and certainly there are first game jitters. But like, if you're betting on this, it's like, hold on a second. These guys are making these kind of errors after like they've been together. Remember, there was no spring portal. So these teams have largely been locked in since January, right? So like, that gives the opponent who has not played a real thing to scout on you and a real thing to exploit and see just how correctable that stuff is in seven or eight days between week zero and week one as opposed to the stuff you didn't get corrected for the past, you know, 30, 40 weeks. - Yeah, I guess the one. that does apply UNLV and Hawaii both have now the tape on each other. So that one will be interesting to see who actually gets better from the first game to the second game as the old, old adage goes. Well, coming up on the other side, it's time to sit down with the cover three committee because the college football playoff picture could be mudier than ever in 2026 and our own bud Elliott has already presented some tricky hypotheticals. The cover three committee will vote in way in and more. Next. Back here on the cover three podcast live on CBS Sports Network. Now we are weeks away from our first college football playoff selection committee rankings, but that does not mean that we are unaware of the potential traffic jams and the rankings that could be coming at the end of the season, the controversies that could pop up along the way. So one of the things that we're going to have some fun with during the year is to try to identify what those headaches could be for the selection committee and then we're just going to go ahead and make life easy for them with our own cover three committee results. So, bud, you have run the bud bot simulations and you've got us one that could get a little bit hairy. Start off. Why don't you present us with the situation and then we can start to break it down and maybe even vote on this? Yeah, get got got so I ran a simulation here. I tried to find ones that are like not absolutely insane, right? That could actually happen and we put the committee. I think in a real binder or maybe the cover three committee will decide this is not a bind at all. So we have 11 and two Virginia, right? Loser of the conference title game against nine and three Oklahoma, which obviously didn't play in the SEC championship game. And I even have the breakdown of who they beat and what those teams records were that they beat or who they lost to. So we can get into this, right? Virginia, they beat NC State. It went six and six. They beat a six and six West Virginia team, a five and seven FSU team, a five and seven Virginia Tech team, right? Five and seven Duke, six and six Wake Forest, obviously seven and five Cal, five and seven UNC. Not too bad. Now, they lost at SMU who went nine and three and then they lost to Miami 31 to 13 in the conference title game. Oklahoma on the other hand, they wanted eight and four Michigan. They beat four and a Kentucky. They beat four and eight Mississippi State. They beat six to six South Carolina. They beat eight and four Ole Miss. They beat eight and four Texas A&M, six and six Missouri. They lost at Georgia who went 11 and one. They lost to Texas who went 10 and two and they lost at Florida who went eight and four. Who gets in, guys? DK? I mean, I think there's a couple things you have going against you if you're Virginia in this situation. One, you're Virginia, right? You're not a blue blood. And I think, unfortunately, that's a reality of the situation. I think, unfortunately, and they want a credit teams for non-conference scheduling, big ones. And this one, we have Oklahoma winning at Michigan, correct? Yes. So that's a big non-conference, marquee matchup that everybody watches. I would try to pound the table for Virginia because this would be the classic situation of 11 and one in the regular season. And if you had that second loss against Miami, even though they just gave the pass to Alabama after getting blown out in SEC title game, I think the reality is they would probably get treated the way BYU did last year. Now, BYU was unique because they lost to the same team twice in Texas Tech, but the committee's made it pretty clear. They don't give that sort of favored status to the ACC and big 12 teams. They did a couple years ago with SMU lost the game, but I do think they would really want to reward Oklahoma for the non-conference win. I think Oklahoma would probably get the nod. What's interesting to me about the scenario is if we think back to last season, BYU was in a very similar spot to where Virginia is in this hypothetical in that they had the one regular season loss. And then they went to the conference championship game, and they lost their second game. And of course, both the losses came to Texas Tech, but they were punished pretty much essentially for playing in a conference championship game and losing it because Alabama had a third loss and got into the field despite it. But the difference was, Alabama's third loss came in a conference championship game. So clearly the committee said, well, we will punish one team for losing conference championship and not the other and the conference championship, which legal is also clearly played into the equation of what they were thinking. Now, the difference here is Oklahoma is not in the SEC championship game. So the question becomes how much do they punish them for that third loss in the regular season? If I'm on the committee, to me, this isn't really that close of a debate. I'm putting Oklahoma in over Virginia just because of the quality of their overall wins. And then if you look at the teams that they lost to, like eight and four Florida is their worst loss. And you can, if you're looking at it, like Virginia didn't be the team that finished eight and four all season. So you could argue that they're you're punishing them for playing in the ACC championship. But hey, if we want to go a little 10 foil hat here, maybe maybe that's what they want. Maybe that the way that they're pushing to expand the playoff, which would then in theory replace conference championship games because they would have to start them earlier to get them done by a certain date. Maybe if they just continue to devalue the conference championships a little bit more, they start swaying that public opinion about whether or not we should be expanding to 24 and getting rid of them because obviously if you if you pull fans right now, there's not a lot of them that seem to be in support of a 2014, they think 12 or 16 is plenty. So you do need to, you know, sway the populace a little bit. Maybe that's a way to do it. But I just think on merit, looking at the metrics, what the SOS rankings would probably be for both of these teams, I think Oklahoma is the obvious choice here and they are one of the 12 best competitive Virginia, which is a good team, but clearly demonstrated with its regular season or has not demonstrated during the regular season that it's a great team. Well, look, there is an opportunity here for Virginia to do it on the field. And that is what we all want, right? We don't want all of college football to come down to courtrooms and boardrooms. We wanted to be decided and Virginia will have an opportunity playing against SMU to get something that, but your hypothetical doesn't have for Virginia. And that's a single dag on ranked win. You know, like the record versus the top 25 is a statistic that the selection committee has at the very top of their team sheets. And when you've got a zero in the win column for your record against the top 25, that is not going to look great when Oklahoma in this hypothetical would have multiples and maybe even like three or four, depending on where some of these teams end up landing. And so there is a, I think any credit that wants to be given to non-conference scheduling, which you know is something that kind of exists, even if it's not written down, they go to the big house and get a win. That could be one of the most significant wins of the entire season for both conferences and sort of the ripple effects that could come out from that. So that already is going to give Oklahoma a spot in the driver seat, but it is again, in addition to that, the conference wins against ranked teams where the SEC and the big 10 do have an inherent advantage. And it's not in the media rights payouts necessarily. It's just in having more opportunities against ranked teams. Life in the ACC in big 12 cuts two ways that way. And that yes, you are at a financial gap to those top two conferences, but that also means there's less opportunities for you to prove your worth on the national stage when it comes to the college football playoff in the selection committee. So for Virginia, a really good team, a really, really good team that very much impressed us and had us singing Tony Elliott's praises on the Cover 3 podcast incident reaction show at the same time in this scenario. But I don't think that the resume is going to have enough meat to it where they're going to be able to overcome what Oklahoma has in terms of quality victories. You all have a lot of faith now in the committee really making it like a step change here. You know, like they like to pay a lot of lip service to the strength of schedule all this kind of stuff. But like historically, they've just sort of been lost column sorters, right? With some head to head and some tiebreaker stuff in there. Like I think historically, UVA gets the nod over Oklahoma here. I'm not quite, I think Oklahoma should go in this scenario. And I don't think it should be close, which is why I think our committee decided to Oklahoma in fairly easily. But they've never done this before, right? They have never put a nine and three team, a three lost team that did not make the conference championship game in over somebody who was two wins to the better, like UVA would be in this scenario. I think your point is well-made, Chip, that like, hey, Oklahoma, when you're beating eight and four Ole Miss, you're beating eight and four Michigan, you're beating eight and four A&M and you lose to 11 and one Georgia, 10 and two Texas and eight and four Florida. You probably played six ranked teams and you went three and three against them. UVA in this scenario would have gone 0 and 2 against ranked teams. I don't think on resume, it's really that close. But like historically, this committee, like regardless of who's been on it pretty much, has not really paid that much credence to the strength of schedule. And so I'm very curious, like this is going to be a real step change for them. And I do think they're going to be under a lot of pressure from the SEC and the big 10 to say, hey, look, like, man, these resumes are not close. You all have got to divorce yourself from this lost column sorting that you've been doing over the last, you know, however, many years, we've had this committee. So I mean, I think that's the way it should go chip. But I'm not like convinced that they would actually do it. Like this would be a precedent setting thing. I want to push back a little bit on that. I do think that for the most part, the committee has been wind loss column sorters, but it's two conferences that get that benefit of the doubt when it comes to like the three losses or the two losses. Like a two-loss big 10 team will be ranked over a three-loss SEC team just because of the conference they plan. I don't think the big 12 of the ACC or even if we looked back to Notre Dame last year, get that same benefit of the doubt because you could argue Alabama had three losses. Notre Dame only had two. The reason Alabama got in was because of their strength of schedule compared to Notre Dame. Danny, I think to the other, the other nuance, the other nuance of this, what does Virginia look like? If they're beating these bad teams, but they're beating like they did NC State and they're rolling and just dominating, I think that matters. And how does, how does Oklahoma look? They've been, you know, they've been beat bad by Texas the last two years. If they get blown out against Texas, blown out against Georgia, don't look very competitive in two of those three losses. How does that impact the committee's view? So I think it's very nuance. I love the conversation because it's what the committee is going to be judging too. But did he find a word? No, I mean, Danny's totally right. We don't have 45 minutes to go into like exactly what the score margins were on these. It's just like a two-loss gap in the wind column is that it would be a new thing for them. Yep. That would be a BYU did get dropped after losing theirs because remember, that's what allowed for the clusters. Remember, you got to leave room for BYU, then BYU's out and then all of a sudden, you know, it's, it depends on the options. I thought we had a great list of contenders. BYU was great last season. Notre Dame was great last season. Vanderbilt had a good seat. I mean, there were a lot of really solid teams that were options for those last at large spots. We'll see if it's the same caliber of field when we get to the end of the season. Well, coming up on the other side, big time sets its sights on Oxen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon, where the grass is damn green and the ducks are getting started with national championship aspirations. We'll go inside the matchup for Oregon, Boise State and more next. Back here on the cover three podcast here on CBS Sports Network. That's time for no way. That's bloody it. That's Danny Canal and I'm Chip Patterson. And now we turn our eyes on big time 3 30 PM Eastern time out in Eugene, Oregon, Oxen Stadium, where the duck will be on that motorcycle and the Oregon ducks will be running out of the tunnel as they chase a big 10 championship and a national championship, the latter of which we'll be hanging in the balance as they welcome a visit from Boise State. Now we saw these two programs play kind of an instant early season classic a couple of years ago, kind of the the Ashton Gentie launching off point for what ended up being a a Heisman finalist finish. As we're going inside the matchup time, I want you to take me to where your eyes are going to be thinking about the ways that Boise State can try to really cause some stress for Oregon or maybe what Oregon can do to impose its will as the heavy favorite as the team that's expected to be able to roll here. My eyes will be where my eyes typically are in any matchup, but particularly for this one because I do have questions on both of these areas for these teams like you mentioned Ashton Gentie a few years ago running all over Oregon. Well, obviously Ashton's not there. So that's a problem that Boise is going to have to solve because he's been gone for a few years now. But the other thing Boise had, they had a good offensive line that season and they were able to block Oregon for the most part. They weren't able to block them all game or just completely stymian, but they did a decent job compared to how you would expect a G5 G6 team to do in that area. But last year, Gentie left and their offensive line was bad. Like maybe Gentie was covering up a lot of their problems the year before. But if you look at them last season, overall, whether it's just with your I test, PFF grades, whatever you wanted to look at, that was a bad Boise State offensive line in comparison to where you typically see the Broncos and they really struggled in games against South Florida, Notre Dame and Washington. And what we see in this game right now with Oregon, they might have the best defensive line in the country. So can Boise State block those guys well enough to even give their offensive chance? On the other side, Oregon's got offensive line questions of its own. There are three new starters on that offensive line this year, including both of their tackles and their left guard. And the camp, you know, like Dan Lanning has done a good enough job recruiting since he's taking over to Oregon that you have a reasonable level of confidence that they're going to be able to replace those guys along the lines of scrimmage. They've brought in big beefy men and they've developed them and they're ready to take their turn. But you've also heard discussion that Oregon might be starting to true freshmen on the offensive line by the time the season is over, whether it's Emmanuel Ionaccio or Tommy Tofi. And I want to know like, are those guys just that good because you typically don't see true freshmen stepping into an offensive line of a national title contender on their first season in campus? Whereas been the competition that open that it is allowed to true freshmen to really enter the conversation of being a possibility. So you look at Boise State. Obviously they're not going to have one of the best defensive lines that Oregon's going to face this season. But I want to look and see how that unit looks, whether there's cohesiveness problems, whether they struggle a little bit because that is going to be the one thing when you look at Oregon top to bottom on their roster. We know the quarterbacks great. We know the running backs are great. We know the receivers are great. We know the defense is fantastic. The one true question mark you have about this team that hasn't been answered is the offensive line. So if you see struggles there against Boise, that might come back to Haunted and bigger games down the road. There is a, there's a Boise State player that I think is going to be a big problem for the quarterback he's facing on Saturday. Unfortunately, it's Ty Benefield who played at Boise State last year. And he's on LSU now and he's playing against Clemson for new secondary pieces for Boise State. I want to see Dante more like he's good. He should be fine in this type of game. Like you were saying, but I'm kind of curious to see if he can pick apart the secondary which is replacing all those pieces in it. Yes, I want to see the offensive line totally agree with you the matchups here where I think Boise State could be overwhelmed. And I think the best thing that Dan landing has going for him is the fact of what happened in 2024. The fact that it was a three point game that it was close because I think you'd like normal situation. Everyone's predicting Oregon's going to be great the season. Maybe get a little complacent start reading your press clippings. All I have to do is remind him how close that was. I think this is one of those games where Dan landing should have an epic pregame speech ready to roll. I don't think they overlooked this opponent at all. I unfortunately it could be a long night for Boise State. I think this is one where Oregon bullies them around a little bit. But I'm very curious to see Dante more sort of a kick start to his Heisman campaign. What type of night does he have? Evan Stewart too wide receiver. We know about the Corian Moore. Evan Stewart, Dan landing said he's been healthy. Has had a phenomenal offseason in spring. What type of role does he play? Does he come to the forefront? Is one of Dante Moore's favorite targets? Couple of matchups I'm looking for. Mercy. We have a good career. You guys took almost all my talking points. I agree. I think Oregon actually kills Boise. I don't think these teams are similar in any way. The spread being 24 and a half by the way kind of reflects that. Everybody expects Boise to get wiped here. And I do too. I'll dig deep in my bag. There's a true freshman at Boise named Ray Sean Jones. He actually I think has a lot of juice. I've talked to people that have been up at Boise and they're like, oh, yeah, he's he's different than anything we've ever had here at the receiver position. So if they get killed, I think a lot of targets going Ray Sean's way. We'll see what he can do with the ball in his hands. To Tom's point about it. Emanuele and Acho. Yeah, dude, like that. To me, that's a win, not if as far as him becoming a starter for that team. We had him down here in Orlando for the under armor, all American bowl and like he that is not a normal looking freshman. That guy's like six six, you know, three 50 set his wings, like 86 inches or something insane. And he had no problem with the other five stars down here at all. So I do think eventually he'll get into the lineup. How much does Dylan Riley get to play here? They're going to allow him to check it around in garbage time. If we get to garbage time, I guess I just take chips talking point. Oh, not much left. Not much meat left on the bone here for you, buddy, but yeah, I think Oregon's the best team in the country. And I think the spread is kind of price like that too. I expect in the role. Yeah. The the play of Maddox Madsen is the one that stands out to me because we saw what happened when he got a little banged up in the Boise State offense got real bad, right? You know, like things they were very much lost. And when you lose your QB one, there's going to be some adjustments that are going to happen along the way. But I think that Maddox Madsen being able to elevate this passing attack and being able to hang in there against that old experienced elite defensive line with a secondary that just has dudes on dudes on dudes at every position all throughout the depth chart. He's going to have to make the right decisions under immense pressure all throughout the afternoon. And, you know, for a new offensive coordinator drew marriageer, you know, how much do you want to make sure you get Evan Stewart going or how much do you necessarily hold back for new defensive coordinator Chris Hampton, but I think this is really, really simple. The ducks want to go out and dominate and they want to keep Boise State from reaching the end zone even once in terms of the spread. I don't know what to make of this necessarily. But I think that while Dante Moore is a legitimate candidate for the NFL draft as the top quarterback taken maybe even the number one overall pick. And while Oregon's wide receivers could emerge as the best wide receiver room. Hello, Jeremiah McClellan, you're there too. I think Oregon's defense could end up being the story of this game. And it could be playing out that way where the game feels even more dominant than what we see on the scoreboard just because the ducks defense has been able to gain an upper hand on Maddox mats and a lot of pressure on the third year starter for boys state to be able to get the Broncos going any decay any last thoughts here on what you're watching in the matchup. Koi Parrich, you know, his debut for the ducks transfer from Minnesota. He was one of the, you know, better defensive players curious what type impact he has in the game. Just another kind of player to watch out for for Oregon. Boy Parrich was a phenomenal player two years ago at Minnesota that, you know, kind of didn't quite settle into the right spot, but there have been incredible reviews coming out of Eugene. Got to hear him meet with the media recently. I think that that's going to be a good spot for him to be able to continue to raise his stock as a player to know in the sport. Well, coming up on the other side, we've got a lot of teams that are big time favorites going into week one. So let's roll through some of the top 10 teams, not necessarily guessing how the matchup will play out like we did with Oregon, Boise State, but really what we're looking for. If you're a fan, it's your wish list. If you're the cover three podcast, what we need to see, what to watch for for top 10 teams in action. And more next. Back here on the cover three podcast live on CBS Sports Network, getting you set for week one in college football. Now we do have some games that are going to be right at the top of your billing. Certainly Oregon, Boise State, the game, we just did an in depth breakdown of it's going to be one of those that's going to get main screen treatment. There can be some other games, though, where we're just we're just peering in just kind of trying to see if we can check some boxes here. Like, I don't know. Number one, the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are 50 and a half point favorites in their season opener against ball state. I mean, gracious. Everybody wants to everybody who cares about Ohio State does not want this to be a main talking point. But because we are thorough on the cover three podcast, we still have things that we want to see, things that we need to see as we get a better feel for how to talk about these teams moving forward. Tom, let's start with Ohio State. What is on your list of things that you want to see out of the Buckeyes in their season opener? Get out of there without getting anybody hurt. That is, I mean, we's not on their team. Maybe they'll hurt somebody on ball state, but they've, they've got a much bigger game looming in week two against Texas. So my anticipation for what Ohio State is going to be doing in this game is showing up, running a few plays, overwhelming ball state with their talents and with their strength scoring points. And then hey, let's see how these second and third stringers look in the second half. This is just not the kind of game like it's it's a 50 and a half point spread for a reason, boys. It's it's not expected to be close. Ball state cannot really hang. It's just you want to get an idea. Maybe, you know, with Arthur Smith coming in as the new offensive coordinator, maybe you'll get an inkling as to what the new wrinkles will be, but I don't even know if you're going to get that because again, with Texas showing up in week two, you have them go down to Austin. I don't think they're going to want to put a whole heck of a lot on tape for the long horns to use to get ready for them. So this is probably going to be an extremely vanilla, extremely basic handoff, run up the A gap kind of game plan and see how many points we get to score before a half time. Honestly, I want to see ball, ball state's new five foot, 10, 250 pound quarterback, man, like that that's going to be absolutely exciting. You know, and like, and seriously, I do want to see how he looks because it will be watching, of course, ball state on Mac play for Sikomode, but I want to see the Ohio State receiver rotation outside of Jeremiah Smith, obviously, they have Brandon and his that they have the stud kid that they took from UTSA who actually has two years left, and they have all these, you know, five star freshmen like Chris Henry Jr. So I want to see the ball get spread around to those guys and see it. See who that group has real juice. I want to see the defense. I want to see if there is dominant or anywhere close to last year's historic defense. They lost so many pieces in the NFL draft. I expect them to be that dominant in a game like this, but kind of getting used to some of those new faces that are four and five stars, probably eventual first and second round picks, kind curious to see what they look like coming together. Yeah, Danny, that's kind of where I'm at. James Smith, Quay Rousseau, Christian Allegro. I mean, there's some players that have shown up through the transfer portal. I don't expect that it will be Matt Patricia master class. I think it will be very much, you know, running a lot of base sets, but for our purposes, I think you can still get some good one-on-ones understanding who's out there dominating who's getting it done. Well, thematically, let's keep it with that week two game in mind. Texas will open against Texas state, archmaning, archmaning, archmaning, archmaning, say it one more time, archmaning for the algorithm, Danny, maybe even outside of archmaning, what are you looking forward to seeing as the longhorns get started with the in state foes from the now pack 12 Texas state. I mean, I am not buying into the archmaning's been sloppy in camp vibes that, you know, you kind of hear some of that coming out. I think that's part of what comes with being a Texas longhorn and being archmaning. Everything is going to be over scrutinized. But remember, even last year in some games where they were heavy, heavy favorites, it was not the cleanest, crispest start for archmaning in the Texas longhorn. So I can't wait to see what the connection looks like with camp Coleman. Can't like wait to see what Hollywood smothers and relief brown look like in the backfield offensive line. I want to see them come together. I don't think they'll have many issues in this game, but kind of what does it look like going into next season? Also curious to see what Will Mustchamp looks like on the sidelines. He can be absolutely losing his mind that emotional coach that I think the defense could actually use for Texas. Curious see if that defenses is dominant. They should be, but I would like to see some clean, you know, operation on the offensive side of the ball. Danny, I'll go ahead and stick with that Will Mustchamp line. Where's the beef? So Mustchamp want to bigger defensive tackles. Texas went out and got two guys who weigh in North of 340. I want to see like how dominant like we know those guys are big. How good are they? Like can they absolutely cause tons of problem for Texas state like with some of Texas states inside run game out of the spread sets. Can they handle those doubles with ease? Like if they dominate, I think that's a pretty nice sign for long horns this year. How many hands will Cam Coleman have to use to catch the ball? That's really the only interesting thing about this game. Like are there going to be one handed grabs or are they going to be on target? He's gonna use both. All right, Tom, what about Indiana, ranked national champions? They get things started on that week one Saturday, big time stage. Here comes North Texas, the team that was competing for the American Athletic Conference and they're missing 70 players from that team that competed for the American Athletic Conference. Neil Brown, our whole friend, Neil with his hands full, a rebuild there with the Mean Green. But Indiana has a Joshua. We get to see Nick Marsh and whether he gets to wear gold cleats on a Saturday. What do you want to see from Kurt Signetti's reigning national championship program? Pray for the Mean Green. You remember when we had Kurt on at big 10 media days, we had him on the show, but asked him which wins last year made you the angriest. First one he said was old dominion because you'll remember last season Indiana's first game of the year, they struggled against old dominion and did not really have the most impressed performance. Kind of made us wonder like, oh, man, maybe maybe Indiana's 2024 is kind of fraudulent. This team doesn't look very good. And then we know how the rest of the season went. I guarantee you know, in Kurt Signetti that that has been a point that has been pounded home with his team as they prepare for this game all off season. They're probably going to try to beat North Texas by a thousand. And I don't think they're going to call off the dogs at any point. So I just want to see how many points Indiana wins by because it could be 70 last year, though, last year they had old dominion. We were in a little bit of a dogfight early. So we'll see a lot of new pieces have to come together continuity. Obviously, you want to see Josh Hoover. You want to see him operating in that system. They lost a lot of pieces. The NFL, too. I agree with you. I think they should be able to spot their number. But I would let and I would expect some domination here. But all my eyes are on Josh Hoover's got so much pressure on the Phil Fernando Mendoza shoes. Sonny Dykes took some shots and I'm on the way out. Like how does he look? How acclimated is he to the system. I think he'll be fine. But I like to see him go out and have a nice game. I want to see some of the death. I expect Indiana to come out and just completely destroy North Texas. North Texas already lost like their two best corners. So not a great recipe to go into Bloomington to face this Indiana team. But assuming they can blow them out pretty quick, you know, how long do the starters play? And then how good is the depth on this Indiana team? Like last year, they had so many nice depth pieces on the defensive line. They actually had to use that depth down the stretch in the playoff run. How good are those guys this year? Yeah. The level of player has gone up. The depth chart is a little more stocked and Kurt Signetti wants to let you know Indiana ain't going anywhere. Well, coming up on the other side, we hope you aren't going anywhere, because we're going to give you the weeknight game to watch Thursday, Friday, Slates, our favorite kickoff say and more next. That's Tom Frennelly. That's Bud Elliott. That's Danny Cannell and I'm Chip Patterson. We're getting you set for week one ahead. Now Saturday, Sunday, Monday. It's an extended holiday weekend, but the football starts on Thursday. Danny Cannell, what Thursday? Thursday or Friday game has your attention. I went and looked at Miami traveling out to Palo Alto to take on Stanford. Stanford just showed a little something with a win against why Davis worn out over 300 yards. The Miami Hurricanes, how dialed in are they? This is a spot where maybe if you're looking for any, there aren't many spots where you're like, oh, could that be a spot? They maybe don't show up. Don't get their best. It is their first game. Even more specifically, you mentioned some of the players that we've talked about throughout the show. Jackson can't well. The young true freshman tackle. How does he go? And then Darian Mensa can't wait to see what he looks like for the Hurricanes. I think he's going to be a star. He's got incredible weapons to work with. I want to see the Miami Hurricanes. What they do for an encore after coming up just short last season. I'm not looking at just the best game on the weeknight. I'm looking at the biggest game of the weekends, at least in this household. I'm looking at Illinois versus UAB. You've got the line. I'm coming off of a nine win season. They have a brand new roster, a brand new defense, brand new quarterback. I want to see how they come out looking against the UAB team that, you know, struggled last year, had to fire their coach in the middle of the season. But, you know, Alex Mortensen came in as the head coach. That offense actually looked pretty good down the stretch once Mortensen took over and ran things himself. So maybe this is a Blazers team that's been a little bit slept on. It can give an Illinois team breaking in a new defense, a little bit of a challenge. So we'll see. I hope not. I hope Illinois wins by a million. Guys, I'm going Fresno State at USC. Fresno, much stiffer competition for the Trojans than the San Jose State Spartans were last week. Fresno's pretty good team there in the pack 12. I want to see if they can give them a little bit of a test, a little more physicality. Obviously, and we'll see how USC holds up, but a nice little test for the Trojans. I'll get you looking at Thursday night. How about do you believe versus run the ball? We got Colorado headed to the flats to take on Georgia Tech. I know you might not have Bobby Dodd Stadium on your home field advantage list, but I'm telling you, I'm hearing that the crowd's going to be packed out. It's going to be a great environment to get your week one started on Thursday night. Keep your eyes on Mendoza. Yes, that Mendoza, Alberto Mendoza, as he steps into the QB one role there at Georgia Tech. I'm expecting they'll try to run the football and on the Colorado side, of things. You know, Juju Lewis is going to have a chance with a new offensive coordinator and Brendan Marion to really start to flex what a lot of people saw from him early in his high school career. And that's the opportunity to go out and be a difference maker at the power conference level. Danny Scudero, we think he's healthy. We think he could be out there ready to go. That's a big difference maker for the buffs. Always tough to know with those player availability updates with Colorado, but we think he's going to be out there and we think that that could make this a very exciting matchup between Georgia Tech and Colorado. Now, of course, all of our breakdowns of the games are always available at youtube.com/cover3, where we are live on Mondays and Tuesdays and Thursdays at 11 a.m. Eastern time. Then on Saturday nights, around 11 30 p.m. Eastern time for our instant reaction show. And we want you to come join us in the cover three tailgate. All you got to do youtube.com/cover3, subscribe, turn on those notifications. You'll know when we go live. And, of course, everything here available wherever you get your podcasts. And you can follow him on Twitter at time for now. You can follow him at blood only three. You can follow him at Danny can now. Follow me @chip_patterson, gentlemen. Thank you very much. League stream every match live exclusively on Paramount Plus.

Podcast Summary

Key Points:

  1. The podcast highlights how preseason expectations often collapse due to unexpected results, such as North Carolina’s big win over TCU, emphasizing the value of re-evaluating team performances throughout the season.
  2. Tempo and offensive line dynamics are key trends to watch, with teams like Indiana setting benchmarks for huddling and adjustments, and the data showing underdog teams with no tape covering the spread at a 58% rate in Week One matchups.
  3. The Oregon vs. Boise State game is seen as a clear favorite for Oregon, with concerns over Boise’s struggling offensive line and Oregon’s new offensive line starters, while standout players like Dante Moore and Ray Sean Jones are expected to play pivotal roles.

Summary:

The Cover 3 podcast delivers an in-depth analysis of college football Week One matchups, focusing on emerging trends and key storylines. A central theme is the unpredictability of preseason predictions, as teams like North Carolina and NC State defy expectations, demonstrating that off-season beliefs are often proven wrong by actual game results. The discussion highlights the trend of slower-paced offenses adjusting to new defensive strategies, supported by data showing that Week One teams without tape have a 58% chance of covering spreads.

The Oregon vs. Boise State game is presented as a dominant matchup, with Oregon’s superior defensive line and experience giving them a massive edge, while Boise’s weak offensive line and lack of top-tier talent raise concerns. The podcast also analyzes other high-profile games, including Ohio State’s massive win over Ball State, Indiana's expected demolition of North Texas, and the Miami vs.

Stanford matchup, where player development and depth are emphasized. Additionally, the show explores the college football playoff scenario where a 11–1 Virginia team loses to Miami and a 9–3 Oklahoma team wins in a non-conference game—raising questions about strength of schedule and conference advantages. Ultimately, the podcast underscores the importance of evaluating performance beyond rankings, emphasizing how teams with better resumes and real-game experience tend to outperform expectations, and how underdogs with fresh talent and lack of tape can still challenge favorites in high-stakes matchups.

FAQs

Coaches are focusing on tempo, especially how teams adjust in the huddle, and whether mid-tempo teams will slow down after seeing Indiana's defensive strategy. There's also growing attention on ranked-vs-ranked matchups, with data suggesting favorites rarely win outright, and a trend of underdogs potentially upsetting top teams.

No, data shows playing in Week Zero doesn’t give a clear advantage. In fact, over the last 10 seasons, teams playing in Week One with no tape have covered the spread 58% of the time, indicating the element of surprise benefits the fresh, unscouted teams.

Yes, there's a strong argument for an upset. Louisville has a strong defensive record and recent success against physical teams, while Ole Miss faces a question-mark quarterback, Lincoln Keyhole, who may struggle against a disciplined defense.

The strength of schedule is a key factor, but historically, the selection committee has prioritized head-to-head results and loss column sorting over it. In a hypothetical where Virginia loses to a ranked team and Oklahoma wins against multiple ranked teams, Oklahoma is favored due to better quality wins and more wins against top opponents.

The primary concern is Boise State's offensive line, which struggled last season. Oregon's defense is considered one of the best in the country, but the Ducks' own offensive line has new starters, including true freshmen, which could create uncertainty in the early game.

Fans should watch Ty Benefield (LSU transfer), Dante Moore (Oregon QB), and Ray Sean Jones (Boise State true freshman receiver). These players could make a significant impact, especially if Boise State struggles to contain Oregon’s defensive line.

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