Week 1 College Football Picks and Previews

We are all Andy Dufrein, sitting in the river, tearing off our shirts, we did it! Have they become the villain to college football? Yeah, probably. Do we really know what we're going to get from Clemson? Let's circle the wagons around our coaches, you know, embattled right now in the national narrative. This could be sneaky, maybe the best game of the weekend. We got football, everybody! Picks and previews are finally here. We've got football week one of the college football season is finally here. Welcome into the Joel Clat Show. I'm Joel Clat, this show is sponsored by Hilton Hilton for this day. We always thank them for their support. We're finally here. I feel like Andy Dufrein right now. All of us are Andy Dufrein. We swam through the river of you know what? And the off season of college football to get to this point. I know we saw games last week and that was phenomenal. But now we get into the bulk of the season, here we go. And it is our first picks and previews episode of the season. Now, truth be told, this is the third year that we're doing this. Every single Thursday, I'll give you some of my picks and obviously preview the game that I'm going to call. We do pick against the spread, obviously not the game that I'm going to call, but all the other games. I do not cherry pick the best lines. I look at the best matchups, the most intriguing games in college football, and I bring them to you. I give you a final score and there we go. If you go back a couple of years ago, we were red hot, man. Our picks were on fire. Came back to Earth a year ago, but over the last two years, we are 55% against the spread. So let's get into it. Here we go. We got games. Let's start with a game that I'll be at. I'm going to Bloomington, Gus Ginny, and I will have the call as Indiana takes on North Texas. Just real quick on North Texas. Neil Brown has an incredibly tough job. He's got a fill in for Eric Morris. After Eric Morris had that tremendous run at North Texas, and then basically took everybody to Oklahoma State. Well, and that's the nature of college football. They had to put together a roster, but they did put together what I think is a pretty cohesive and in spots, very talented group of players. Let me start with a couple of them. Number one, the running back. A guy that Neil Brown is familiar with from his time at West Virginia. Jeheme White. Jeheme White towards ACL last year. A plan for Richrod at West Virginia in week two. But he had come out of the gates hot, had over 100 yards in week one, and was really good for Neil Brown as a freshman. He was a freshman all-American a couple of years ago. So he comes over and now he's playing for his former coach. They were careful with him in fall camp, obviously coming off of that ACL injury, but make no mistake about it. The offense is going to run through Jeheme White, and they're going to ride him as long as he can go. He is a really talented back, 5,790 pounds. He's an experienced guy, and he can really go. Their quarterback is maybe even a better story, because he's going back to Indiana. Taven Jackson was a guy that we saw, actually, on Big Noon Saturday, two years ago. He was the backup for Curtis Rork, for Kurt Signetti at Indiana. Taven Jackson has history there, and he actually went into some big moments. If you'll remember a game that I was actually calling, Indiana was hosting Nebraska. It was a big early game, and it was really the statement game for Indiana, and Signetti's first big moment at Indiana at home, and they throttled Matt Rule in the Cornhuskers. But in that game, Curtis Rork got banged up. He hit his hand, and he got his hand hurt, and Taven Jackson had to go in, and he played really well. The next week, they were playing a huge game against Washington, and Taven Jackson started that game for Kurt Signetti, and they won. They beat the Huskies. Now, obviously, they won. Listen, Signetti's only lost two games at Indiana. Notre Dame in the College football playoff, and then Ohio State and that regular season game in the shoe. This team is not going anywhere, but some familiarity and some talent on the other side, and I can't wait to see what those guys do for North Texas. I'm rooting for North Texas. Obviously, you get decimated like that, and it's not Eric Morris' fault, per se. But he took a lot of those players. They had to put together this roster, and now they've got to go face the defending national champion, Indiana Hoosiers, and let's start with the Hoosiers. This team is going to be very good. As I just told you in yesterday's program, and if you have not watched it, please go back and do so here on YouTube. You can subscribe to the program as well. That would be awesome. But I talked about this question that is burning for college football fans, which is, is Indiana going to be good again? And the answer is yes. In fact, Kurt Signetti has a team that I think is ahead of where they were at a year ago at this moment. They've got a quarterback that is ahead of where Fernando Mendoza was at this moment. A year ago, Josh Hoover transfers in from TCU, and this is a really quality player with a lot of experience under his belt. He's struggled with turnovers. There's no doubt. Now, he's never had a run game like he'll have with Indiana, and he's certainly never had a defense like he will have at Indiana. And that's the element of this team that I think goes overlooked is the fact that they were a run-oriented team, even with a Heisman trophy winning quarterback in Fernando Mendoza. Everything started up front and with those backs last year. So, will they be able to run the football again? Now, paper says that they should. I believe that they should be very good and balanced run in the football. Their offensive line is better. More experience, Carter Smith, back he was the big 10s offensive line many years ago of the year a year ago. And they've got some backs in the backfield. I think they're going to be three deep. This is a group that should be able to run the football. And if they do that, then they're right in the wheelhouse of exactly what Josh Hoover does best, which is throw the RPO. He threw the second most RPOs in all of college football last year. To who? Fernando Mendoza. So, he's the type of guy that's signety can work with. This is a team that has a ton of continuity on both sides of the ball. Not only returning production, like Charlie Becker on the outside, Carter Smith up front at offensive line, but also in the coaching ranks. Remember, this is a team that held on to their coordinators. And that is, that's wild in this day and age. Everybody was calling for Mike Shanahan, the offensive coordinator. Brian Haines, the defensive coordinator. And he kept them. These guys have been with Kurt Signetti, going back to JMU and even prior, Elon and other areas. So, the continuity is there. And then we look at the defense. And the defensive front seven could be even better than it was a year ago. I know replacing Aiden Fisher is going to be difficult. He was the green dot middle linebacker from JMU comes with them there. And he was really the quarterback on the field. But this is a team that, at least on the defensive line, they should be able to roll seven eight, maybe even nine deep. They're very deep. They got some transfers on the edge. They're very good in the interior. This defensive line could be one of the best and deepest in all of college football. My one question for Indiana. And really it's two. And I brought this up yesterday in that episode. They've got to replace D'Angelo Ponds at corner. That's going to be something I'll be watching for on Saturday. Jamari Sharp is going to move over into the boundary. And everything they do schematically was around D'Angelo Ponds. They rolled away from him. And that allowed them to produce numbers on the other side of the field. That's a big question. How does Jamari Sharp play? And then the other one is, how do you replace Riley Noah Kowski? Got no love. Obviously not many people know his name. He's now on the Steelers roster. He was their H-back tied in and did a lot of things to allow them to be versatile out of the same personnel group. They could run the football. He was great in line. He could block. And he could catch the ball down the field. They need to find a tied in. That's the one area where they have a real lack of experience going on. So those are the things I'll be watching for on Saturday as Indiana hosts north Texas. All right, let's get into these picks. Clemson at LSU. So the Tigers are going into Death Valley. Leaving Death Valley to go to Death Valley. As LSU fans would point out, the real Death Valley. And if you want to call it that, that's fine. And the number 11 ranked Tigers of LSU. Now, have they become the villain to college football? Yeah, probably. In particular with everything that's going on. And I know the team and the players are trying to defend Lane and say, no, this is what we wanted. Bringing in these guys from NFL rosters. But it is certainly a distraction. That's one thing that you can potentially look for. Now, LSU is favored by 10 and a half. Quite a large spread. When you're bringing in a Clemson team that has history. Right, Davo has history. They should be a talented team. But do we really know what we're going to get from Clemson? I don't. Man, I don't. Clemson's a really tough one to figure out. You look at their roster and it's like, OK, I think it could be good. But I thought they were going to be great a year ago. Remember famously, I picked them to win the national championship. And that was just a complete flame out from Clemson. You look at the quarterback position. They were very experienced a year ago with Club Nick. Felt good about that. He didn't play well. Now, they're going to get a guy that really hasn't played a lot. A one-start in his history. Christopher, uh, Vazina, he won the quarterback battle. He's a red shirt. What does it junior? He has started one game in his career. He bit out a freshman Tate Reynolds. But Davo has said that Tate Reynolds will get some time. We'll see if it's in this game. That would be baptism by fire, certainly. You know, we'll say, like I said, you go to LSU. And you face this Tigers team. They're going to be all jacked up. There's no doubt. And I think that this fan base for LSU. The players lane himself. I think they embrace this kind of villain narrative. I think they are where they want to be, which is, which is great. And again, as I said yesterday, again, go watch that episode, subscribe on YouTube. I think it's good for college football. Now, is it good for college football that he's going to be in some sort of like litigation, lawsuit with the SEC, probably not. And now you're seeing even the SEC coaches. Sark had a big comment. Kirby has touched on it. coaches from around the country basically saying what we all believed to be true and no be true, which is bringing back guys that were in the NFL as nuts. It's wild, and it's stupid, but that's what's going on. We've got this lawsuit. They're going to embrace that. That's actually probably a rallying cry for them. Hey, let's circle the wagons around our coach who's, you know, embattled right now in the national narrative. There's no doubt that LSU is going to be incredibly talented. They've brought in one of the best classes, if not the best class in the transfer portal of anybody in America. Lane has done that before when he was at Ole Miss, and it worked, and he got those teams to gel. So if history is an indicator, you would think that Lane would be able to do that again, and I'm certain that he will be able to do that. Now, what is this team in the long run? I'm not sure. And again, you can go listen to that episode from yesterday, and I go much more in depth on that fact. But there is no doubt that they're going to be really talented. They'll be talented on defense, and that's the one area where I think I want to focus, because this defense really should be able to shut down Clemson in this matchup. You've, you've got Blake Baker back, Princewell and Umain Miellen comes in from Ole Miss transfers with Lane Kiffin. This guy is an excellent defensive in. They're talented out there. You got what weeks, like this is a good team. You've got Sam Levitt experience quarterback. Now, he's there, obviously with Lane. Lane always has a good offense. This team should be good. They should be ready to go, and it comes down to execution. How quickly can they learn this system and execute? Baker has been there before. So it shouldn't take that long for these guys to really get acquainted with this defense. And that's where I think that they dominate this game. I know that Clemson has some solid defensive players, but I'm not worried about LSU on offense even early in the season because, namely, they've got experience at the quarterback position. That stadium is going to be jumping. I think Tom Allen defense coordinator for Clemson is going to have his hands, hands absolutely full. If I'm thinking about a score right now and that environment with that type of energy, I like LSU 31-14. They cover the ten and a half, and I'm going to go the Tigers over the Tigers. Sunday, we've got a great one. Only ranked matchup of the week. I should say I almost said season of the week. First week for me too. Number 24 Louisville against number nine Ole Miss in Nashville on Sunday, neutral site game. Ole Miss is favored by six and a half. Let's start with Louisville because Jeff Brahms has done an outstanding job at Louisville, his alma mater. Three straight nine win seasons. Now he gets a new quarterback in transfer from Ohio State Lincoln Keenholds who's been battling to try to get on the field at Ohio State didn't work out. Very athletic competitive guy. Really like Lincoln every time I got to deal with him in my trips to Columbus. But Brahms has always proven that he can be a bit of a quarterback whisperer. So I have no doubt that Keenholds is going to play well for Louisville. They also have Isaac Brown who's one of the most explosive and best running backs in the entire country. So Louisville has some they've got some mojo going in this game and and Ole Miss is going to have to figure out what they are post lane Kiffin. It's great for them that they were able to play with Pete Golding as their head coach during the playoff because now they have an identity outside a lane and they're not going to be looking around on that sideline trying to wonder who are we now that our former head coach is no longer here. They know who they are. They also have what I think is the best quarterback running back duo in the entire country. Tritad Chambles and Kiwan Lacey are phenomenal players. Phenomenal players. They've got a brand new offensive coordinator. John David Baker. He comes in. He did spend time as an assistant under lane at Ole Miss a few years ago. So he's familiar with what's going on. I am very interested to see just how efficient, explosive and effective this offense can be. Because as we know, lane is excellent on the offensive side and as a play collar. And they had Charlie Weiss who was lane's guy in the playoff and now they're removed from that. So there could be some unknowns as it relates to just the offensive philosophy, the offensive framework, how they're building a game plan and then how they're executing that game plan. That would be something to watch. There's no doubt. And as six and a half point favorites in a ranked matchup, it could look sloppy at times. It could. And we'll see if Louisville can take advantage. Louisville has been a team that has constantly defeated really good opponents. They beat Miami. They took down JMU at Purdue. Brahms was really the spoiler maker. So they know how to do this. I do think Ole Miss in the end is going to have too much because I think Tritad Chambles is the most unique quarterback in the country in that he's the most threatening outside of the pocket inside of the pocket. That's going to be very difficult for Louisville and their new defensive coordinator to deal with. He's so dynamic that I think that they win the game 30 to 21. I like Ole Miss covering the six and a half. Let's go to the Northwest. Boise State at number two. Oregon. Oregon is favored by 24 and a half. So much talent and expectation in Eugene for Dan landing. And rightly so. Remember this is a team that's only lost three football games in the last two years and it just so happens that every one of those three losses was to the eventual national champ. They beat Ohio State and then lost to Ohio State. They're only lost that year that they were number one in the college football playoff and then got run out of the Rose Bowl. Last year their only two losses was Indiana. In Eugene and then ultimately in the national semi-final. They've gone one step further every single year under Dan landing. So this is a team with a lot of expectation and a lot of talent. Listen, the one area that I would point to and it's really two but the one area that I would point to that I think they will be a dominant forces on the defensive line. Every one of those defensive linemen up front for the ducks could have or should be in the NFL. They did not go to the NFL. They came back and I think that's going to create a sense of urgency. They are there with a purpose. They are there for one reason and it's not just NIL. It's legacy. It's legacy. They understand that they can build and cement a legacy that nobody else at Oregon has. They're going to try to win a national championship. It would be the first in their program's history. That urgency I think starts in this game against Boise State. Now I like Boise State as they move into the pack 12. Spencer Danielson is one three straight mountain west titles. He heads in with an experience quarterback. Madsen took a Boise State team into Eugene a couple of years ago and had the lead in the fourth quarter. So it wouldn't be out of the question that Boise plays well in this game but that team for Boise had action genty. This is going to be a different animal. I think Oregon is further along in their build under Dan landing. They've got more purpose and more urgency with these guys coming back. They've got an experience quarterback in Dante Moore. I believe they can be explosive on offense which more on that in a second and I think they're going to be absolutely suffocating on defense. The one question I have for Oregon is at offense of coordinator. So Drew Marenger comes in and he's a promotion from within to replace Will Stein. We'll see how he does. That's the one I want to see the offense and how it works very similarly to Ole Miss. Boise had a great past defense a year ago but they lose four of their five DBS from a year ago. Oregon should really control this game if they can't control the game with their offense. They should be able to control the game with their defense and more specifically their defensive line. I like Oregon and this one. They're 24 and a half point favorites. I like him to cover that. I like 42 13 again. Think about purpose. Think about urgency. Think about what this team is actually there to do and it's not just go out there and struggle against Boise State. So give me Oregon big in this one. Couple more. Number 19 19 SMU at Florida State on Monday night. This is going to be a great one. SMU is favored by only three and a half. So listen Vegas is telling us something right there. This is a massive advantage for Florida State not just being at home but more specifically the fact that they've been able to play a game. They did not play well last week against New Mexico State. They won the game but they did not play well but it's a massive advantage to have played that game because now you get to go back and coach your team really hard if you're Mike Norvel and there's no question in college football with no preseason games and all you have is these scrimmages internally and fall camp. There's no question that the biggest improvement you make as a team is from week one to week two. Your first game to your second game. We should see that improvement from Florida State. I believe that this line is playing that into the equation because on paper SMU is much better than Florida State. Rett Lashley has done a remarkable job at SMU. This is a really good program. They've got a quarterback that is coming back in Kevin Jennings. They've become a destination in the Metroplex for all these guys that go to other programs and want to get back home to the Dallas area. SMU is a great spot to land. This was a team that we covered in the holiday bowl. I could not be more impressed with Rett Lashley. I think he is a phenomenal coach. They did a great job locking him up in particular when Arkansas came hunting around and that opening was available. They locked him up and now they're building something at SMU which has been very dominant in the ACC. Maybe not quite, you know, like championship dominant, but they have been dominant. Think about the last two years. They're 14 and two in ACC play. 14 and two. They beat Miami a year ago. That was a really good Miami team. Meanwhile, FSU in the last two years in ACC play is three and 13. Like come on. At some point, don't we have to just look at the trajectories of this program. Don't we have to look at the history of this program. I don't love what I saw from FSU. They might have run the ball decently against New Mexico State, but this is not a team that we thought really highly of that maybe slept walk through a poor opponent in week one at home and was really looking to week two. This is a sustained level of struggle that Florida State has had three in 13 and SEC play. That's not good enough. I like SMU in this one. I just believe in what SMU has done as a program. They are favored by three and a half. I'm going to take them. I like them 28, 21 in that Monday night affair on the road. Last game that we're going to get to UC LA at Cal. This could be sneaky. Maybe the best game of the weekend. I think this is going to be a phenomenal game. A lot of energy around these programs, a lot of energy around these programs and these two head coaches. Bob Chesney comes into UCLA from J.M.U. I'm a huge fan of Bob Chesney. I've gotten to meet him a couple of times here in the lead up to this this season. And what he was able to do was bring an entire apparatus, apparatus to UCLA, very similar to what Kurt Signetti did when he left J.M.U. and went to Indiana. He took his whole staff. He took a bunch of those players. And so they had a foundation and a head start as opposed to a normal coach that gets a job and has to build a staff and build a roster. So they have that head start at UCLA. Oh, by the way, they've got one of the most talented quarterbacks in America and Nico Yamalayava. This is a guy that can still take over a game. Let's not forget that Nico Yamalayava was the only reason that Tennessee was in the game in the first half, two years ago in the college football playoff when they traveled to Columbus and took on Ohio State. The only reason. That was the only thing Tennessee had was the fact that Yamalayava could run around and he was showing grit and toughness and playmaking ability. Fast forward to last year's first year at UCLA, struggling a little bit early in that season. They they fire their head coach. Penn State comes to town. He beat some like he can elevate a program. There's there's no I I think Yamalayava is a tremendous player. And and for that reason, UCLA is going to be ahead of Cal in this transition. This coaching transition, and that doesn't mean that I don't like Tosh LaPoi because I think he's going to be really good for Cal and I love the energy that he's infused to Cal. They're actually talking about football at Cal for the first time in a long time, which I really love. I really love. You look at this quarterback match up and it's the all name match up. All right, here we go. I already went with Nico Yamalayava and you know, guys, you know if you watch this program, please subscribe on YouTube that I struggle with pronunciations. It's just not a strong suit. Jerren Kiyava Song of Poluteli. I think I did it. Name game. Let's call him JKS. I really like JKS. This is a guy that has a freshman showed a lot of ability. So now he's a returning starter and he can help that energy and that bill that Tosh LaPoi is trying to have here at at Cal. They got a couple of big guys in the transfer portal. Ian Strong, big wide receiver from Rutgers. They've got Adam Muhammad who backed up Jonah Coleman at Washington last year. He's a very good player. UCLA is favored by a point and a half with Yamalayava and some of that core that they brought from JMU, the apparatus that Bob Chesney has at JMU. I like UCLA in this one 24 20. I'm going shock. All favorites this week in college football. Let's take a look at the picks as we have them right now. Again, guys, isn't this indicative? Listen, we study all off season and this is largely what I have felt about these teams all off season. Is one of these going to be wrong? Probably. Probably. Remember, we see like every year, we see a top 10 team get beat by an unranked team. Now, is that going to happen this year? I don't know. You know, like I think the is Louisville going to be Ole Miss maybe? Yeah, maybe of the other top 10 teams though, these matchups, man, these spreads are enormous, enormous. You got 40 and 50 point spreads and all the top 10. I say that all to say like, I know I went chalk. Are we going undefeated this year? Probably not. But this is going to fall in line with what I think of these teams. And remember, we're going to learn more about these teams from this game to their next game than we do all season long. So this is a bit of a crapshoot. We'll get hot later. There's no doubt. I know I'm underselling it, but there are the picks right there. We're going chalk LSU. I'm giving the 10 and a half over Clemson at home. Ole Miss, I'm giving the six and a half. I love turning it at Chambliss and Q1 Lacey. Oregon at home. They've got purpose. They've got sense of urgency. I'm giving the 24 and a half against Boise State SMU on the road. I like them in their quarterback Kevin Jennings. I love their head coach. Don't love the trajectory of Florida State. I'll send the three and a half there. And then UCLA on the road. I'm going to say that they cover against Cal and get a huge win in Bob Chesney's first game and that one. And again, Sneaky, I think that might be the best game of the entire weekend in college football. That one's going to be great. A little old school pack 12 after dark. I think that game is late. I believe so. Hey, quick housekeeping stuff. Guys, thank you for your support. So we're doing a live show in Ann or in Ann Arbor. Next week, September 10th, right before that Thursday night before OU and Michigan Tangle and that giant game in the big house. And we've sold out. We released 100 tickets initially. Those sold out quickly. The venue gave us 50 more tickets. You guys are awesome. I cannot wait to get there. So here's what we're going to do because the demand was was so high. We're going to do what we normally don't do. And we're actually going to live stream a show. As you know, like we record these and then we release them both as podcasts and on YouTube. And we just decided like, listen, there were so much demand. We're going to go ahead and live stream. So the doors are going to open to the venue at six o'clock, but the live show starts at 7 p.m. So you can watch right here on YouTube. You can watch the show live as we stream. We're going to have some great guests. I believe Bob Stupes is going to be there. There's going to be some other great guests as well as we get you all set for that OU and Michigan Tangle week two from the big house. So there's the picks and previews. There's the announcement about the live show. And again, I know I kind of led with it, but like we are all Andy do frame, sitting in the river, tearing off our shirts. We did it. We swam through. What was it? 200 yards of what I can't even imagine. That was my best Morgan Freeman. We swam through. You don't want to get to this point. No more eligibility, no more transfer portal, no more governance, no more Senate bill. We got football everybody and enjoy your weekend.